Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Celuien

I'll return shortly with a look at Durelin.

If Durelin's a Wolf, she's a reckless one. She drew far too much (unwarranted) attention to herself yesterday with her unreasoned vote for me, her subsequent (frankly confusing) attempts to justify it, and then switching vote to Tom (with little more in the way of reasoning) after criticising Boro for much the same behaviour. It's possible, but I don't see it at the moment. There was no need for the Wolves to take any risks yesterday.

[the guy who be short]

But I wonder if there was a Wolf among the Boro voters at all. From my perspective, the three most likely lynch candidates of the day (Boro, Form and myself) were all innocents. There was simply no need for the Wolves to vote for someone who was likely to be lynched and proven innocent. As far as the Wolves were concerned, it was a good day for a “throwaway” vote, or even the odd Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Largely agreed. This supports my theory that Form was killed so as to continue the process smoothly by not causing any major disruptions.


Seriously... bed now.

[Celuien]

Subjectively, I was disturbed by her yesterday.

Objectively: Here's what she had to day...

54: Vote for SPM in the midst of ninja moves.
94: Says that Panman is interfering with teamwork and says that bandwagoning is not the same thing as team work. Dislikes retracting votes – thinks it causes confusion. Says she might retract her vote for SPM, but would then be accused of vote-retracting-bandwagoning. Suspects Boro for disrupting team work by retracting votes and suggests he may be voting randomly even though he said nothing good comes from day 1 random voting.
99: Tells Boro that non-team players play alone. Says her vote isn’t final.
106: Says the bandwagon is turning on her and that everyone hates day one. Says wolves don’t want to draw attention to themselves, so Tom Bombariffic may be a wolf. Switches vote from SPM to Tom.

Assessment: Appears to flip flop regarding retracting votes - starting against them because they cause confusion and then switching herself. Strong emphasis on teamplaying, which is both good and bad. Good in that the village does need to work together to catch the wolves. Bad in that it seems to cast suspicion on those who want to debate, which the village also has to do to catch wolves. Also bad because a wolf trying to sway the village wouldn't want disagreement either. But very, very attention getting moves for a wolf on day one. And so, very risky. Most likely something a wolf would not want to do unless a bold bluffer, which Durelin could be. She feels more innocent in her last post, but still has some odd things about her.

Plan: I still want to keep an eye on Durelin.

[tom bombariffic]

I'll also have to agree that the wolves most likely killed form to keep up the village's confusion , but I couldn't call it a definite 'throwaway'.

In post 103, Formendacil claims that talking a lot on day 1 has little value, and so was not playing a very active role. But Form is a strong player, as lore books will reveal, and one who was likely to take up a bigger role later on (I'd classify morm in this category as well). This killing may not be random, but rather a signal that the wolves are comfortable with their positions in the village hierachy, and their ability to lead a vote, and didn't want form's likely increased participation changing that. It's a possibility. Tomorrow morning I'm going to go over the first day's more prominent posters carefully. Right now it's far too inhumane an hour.

Obviously Caranlondien needs looking at, but I'd be susprised if the wolves did anything so obvious as killing someone who had voiced a suspicion about them; not with an entire village to choose from. So I'm comfortable with her for the time being.

I'll be back in the morning when I can focus on the page.

bombariffic

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

She seems to have spent most of the latter part of the day worrying about whether she should maintain her vote for me or not

Well, most of that was because I hadn't planned on returning to the village; However, finding myself in the presence of a functioning computer for a short time, I took the opportunity to reconsider my vote. And I explained all that yesterDay.

Now, Form's death doesn't surprise me. I agree with TGWBS's conjecture that the wolves want to maintain the utter confusion we found ourselves in yesterDay. From Form's death, it looks like the wolves are trying to take advantage of my self-admittedly odd-looking behavior yesterDay to get me lynched.

I hate to point fingers at those accusing me, but SpM fits the bill. YesterDay he seemed careful; he only went so far as to call my behavior "interesting" and the like. Meanwhile, a lot of other villagers, probably innocent, began to more vocally accuse me, showing the wolves that I'm a safe target for them. ToDay I'm on SpM's Decidedly Wolvish list.

I'm probably just adding to the suspicion around me by continuing to voice my own suspicions of SpM. But I don't care if I die if it helps the village. With the amount of suspicion surrounding me, at some point my death probably will help the village by eliminating suspects. In any case, this SpM theory is the only thing I've got at the moment... I'll go back over yesterDay's posts to see if I've got any other ideas clinking around in my head...

[Durelin]

*emerges from the mists*

Just checking in.

I hated retracting my vote, believe me. I don't like flip-flopping. But just as a number of people did, I popped in with a vote, caught up in the excitement. I suppose that is due to me being late.

Unfortunately, I'm afraid I don't have the time right now to do any detailed analyses.

So we'll have to make do with...

Originally Posted by SPM

Obviously, he did not want to explain his plans precisely, since that would only have alerted the Wolves to what he was trying to achieve.

Yes, now it's obvious. The problem with retracting votes is that flip-flopping adds to confusion, and that's not always good. Wolves like to do that, though not overtly. Now...is retracting votes overt or not? That I'm not sure of. I suppose it was for Boro, knowing what we do now.

Sorry, but for now, I'm off to ninja in the night...

EDIT: Of course, I cross-posted with two people...

[Durelin]

(Ah, one last word because I can't help it.)

^^Enough with the retractable votes thing, I know...

[The Saucepan Man]

YesterDay he seemed careful; he only went so far as to call my behavior "interesting" and the like. Meanwhile, a lot of other villagers, probably innocent, began to more vocally accuse me, showing the wolves that I'm a safe target for them. ToDay I'm on SpM's Decidedly Wolvish list.

My suspicions lay elsewhere until I reviewed the events of yesterday. I had already left the village square before your flip-flopping began, so there was little reason for me to consider you particularly suspicious before. It was precisely that flip-flopping and the apparent care which you were taking in placing your vote which led to a number of people beginning to suspect you towards the end of the Day and which prompted my suspicions overnight.

Interesting that you should seize on my comments when TGWBS was the first to voice suspicion of you today.

Originally Posted by Durelin

The problem with retracting votes is that flip-flopping adds to confusion, and that's not always good. Wolves like to do that, though not overtly.

It seems to me that, all else being equal, Wolves are less likely than innocents to switch votes, as they leave less of a trail by voting only once. Especially on Day 1 when their main objective will be to avoid any major suspicion. And most especially yesterday, when I suspect that none of their number were ever in any serious danger.

[Celuien]

23: Joking suspicions Nogrod. LMP, SPM and Feanor are listed as three interesting and straightforward people.
24: Jokingly votes for me because I’m a ketchup grower. (Ketchup is a healthy vegetable! For shame! )
51: Retracts vote for me and votes SPM for his instructions to the Changeling.
78: Says that there wasn’t much to go on in her vote for SPM but didn’t want to leave a silly vote for me standing. Voted for SPM in case she couldn’t get back to change her vote, but thinks it would be a shame to lose him since he’s valuable when innocent. Says Boro is confusing, but probably just having fun with day one. Suspicious of under the radar type spawn, morm and LMP.
87: Dislikes day one because of personality adjustments. Says she doesn’t see her SPM vote as bandwagoning and is voting based on honest suspicion.
89: Points out never having played with retractable votes before. Is second guessing herself, thinks it’s nerve wracking.
98: Doesn’t think bandwagons are as suspicious as some people might believe. Says she’s suspicious whether she stands by her vote or not.
101: Suspcious of everyone. Thinks SPM lynching would be hasty now, only voted for him because she thought he’d be safe (!), switches to Durelin for ‘random postings without much substance.’

A few alarming things. Repeatedly says that she found SPM suspicious and voted for him as a result, then also says that it would be a shame to lose a valuable innocent, then says she only voted for him because she thought he'd be safe and never garner enough votes for lynching!

That last bit is classic lupine strategy. Cast a throwaway vote, and you'll never come under fire for lynching an innocent. And it seems that she's covering all approaches to her vote. Fishy.

Adding her to my watch list.

[Caranlondien]

Well, I started to make a list of all the villagers and my impression of them so far, but most of them were turning out to be "I won't know what to think until they've talked some more". So it seems better to do my usual disorganized, thinking aloud type of post...

As for toDay, SpM's latest post (#128, just in case I cross-post with him) seems reasonable, which is frustrating, as I'm finding it hard to single out any other suspects, aside from my general paranoia. YesterDay the other person I found most suspicious was Durelin, whose post (well technically posts) toDay seems innocent enough.

One thing that struck me is that Lommy seemed more aggressive than usual yesterDay. I'll be especially interested to hear more from her toDay. (Though my ancestors have a history of wrongfully suspecting her ancestors )

I was also struck by LMP's quietness. However, I believe someone mentioned RL issues, which might explain that. morm seemed unusually quiet, too.

A few have struck me as particularly innocent-looking, but I don't think I'll help the wolves by singling them out

EDIT: Cross-posted with Celuien

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

However, I believe someone mentioned RL issues, which might explain that.

That would have been me. I'm not positive about what's happening now, but I know LMP was busy recently, so I put it out as a suggestion for fairness' sake. He'll have to be the one to say definitively.

[littlemanpoet]

Two graves have been dug and are now ready for the remains of Boro and Formy. A little help please?

*LMP gets help lugging corpses to gravesites*

All right then, a little bit of a eulogy and all that: Obviously these two were innocent, and good chaps they were indeed. Too bad they didn't help us as much as they wanted to to catch the lycans. Here's hoping their deaths helped more than their living words. There. Enough words. Now help me shove these in.

*LMP gets help shoving corpses into graves, then heaves dirt back in the holes*

(Hmph!) I think Spawn may be a werewolf. Guy's and Saucy's theories seem worthy of consideration.

Lommy I don't think is worth consideration just yet, (oof!) as she is known for picking an issue and riding it for all it's worth. So that doesn't seem like association of guilt to me.

Caran also seems worth consideration (heave!), based on Saucy's comments.

Durelin is capabe of recklessness, so I won't write her off my suspect list yet.

For all the persuasiveness of the man, we need to keep an eye on Saucy. Do not (!) DO. NOT. (!) just assume that Saucy's innocent because he sounds innocent. I'll be watching him too.

Celuien's comments in post # 129 have me taking notice. Good eye there, Celuien!

++ CARANLONDIEN

Chew on that.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

I'm probably just adding to the suspicion around me

Yes you are! I really think that you are acting extremely nervous and exactly how I would suspect you to act as a wolf. You seem to be trying to divert any and all suspicion off you to others. Somebody shows moderate suspicion of you and you over react but not in an overt fashion. I think Celuien hit it very well in her post and I agree with LMP is correct as well in his vote. Ergo I vote

++Caranlondien

[The Saucepan Man]

I have just re-read Caran's posts from yesterday (among others) and come to much the same conclusion. Or, more accurately, they have confirmed the impression which I expressed earlier.

I am tempted to add my vote to the gathering clamour for her to be lynched.

Her original vote for me yesterday was based upon entirely specious reasoning. Apparently, I was instructing the Changeling how to win on the Wolves' side (as if she had not already worked it out for herself ), yet it remains the case that the Changeling has a much better chance of winning if she plays for the village. The fact that some people might regard going for the Wolfish victory as an appealing challenge does not detract from the logic of what I was saying.

Then all the to-ing and fro-ing about whether to change her vote for me, apparently grounded on firm suspicions (as to which, see above) but not firm enough to prevent her from changing her vote when it looked like I might be lynched.

I do have one resevation, though. In #101, she actually admitted that she was looking to place a safe vote, ie a vote for someone who was unlikely to be lynched. Would a Wolf admit that?

[Caranlondien]

Hmm. I am in a rather awkward position, as 2/3 of my suspects for toDay now suspect me. 3/4, actually, counting SpM. I doubt they're all wolves (now there would be a terrifying team - lmp, morm, and SpM), as they'd not all be so bold as to go after the (I fear) soon-to-be-revealed-as-innocent me.

I'm acting odd, you say? I've never been in this position before. My hotel-situation yesterDay left me saying some contradictory things because I didn't have time to think carefully and I couldn't go back over the posts much because the connection was so slow. Admit it, innocent or not, we all must choose our words carefully to avoid being lynched. And I've never had a great deal of suspicion cast on me by so many players, all of whom are far more experienced than I. It's a rather intimidating experience!

In any case, I'll keep plugging away on my theories, which I hope will help when I'm dead and you all know you can believe me

EDIT: Cross-posted with SpM

[Findëasëa]

I find all of these early votes for Caran interesting. YesterDay she was jumpy and flip-floppy, but it seemed to me like she was genuinely busy in the RL. Form was killed right after being the only one to vote for her. If she is a werewolf this would draw more attention to her, and she already had come under suspicion as of last night. The wolves could be pulling a double bluff, but at this stage of the game, why risk it?

Something is not right about all of the suspicion of Caran. My ancestor was in a village when one of her ancestors was a wolf, she did not act like she is acting now, instead she was the last wolf to die. She managed this by playing the helpful villager and flying under the radar. She might just be making a lot of mistakes, but my knowledge of Caran's playing style leads me to believe she would be a lot more careful about who she accused were she a wolf. Frankly, I did not follow her reasoning to vote to lynch SPM. It seemed like she was trying really hard to find a flaw. I don’t think that the wolves would take such a shaky path so early just to get SPM out of the picture. I think that we need to look at some of the more ‘safe’ looking people as wolves toDay.

X- posted with Caran and SPM
edit- typo

[littlemanpoet]

I see your point, Findëasëa.

So..... posting frequency:

The Saucepan Man 20
Caranlondien 11
Celuien 10
Thinlómien 9
Mithalwen 8
Kath 8
Findëasëa 8
the guy who be short 8
Cailín 7
Durelin 6
Feanor of the Peredhil 5
dancing spawn of ungoliant 5
Nogrod 7 (4 if you discount his after-Day One rampage)
littlemanpoet 4
mormegil 3
Lhunardawen 3
Nilpaurion Felagund 2
tom bombariffic 2

I'm not claiming that this tells us a WHOLE lot, only who may be trying to fly under the radar early. Nogrod has called undue attention to himself, as have Caranlondien and Durelin. My take on that is likely innocence. If this seems like a flip-flop to some of you, so be it: I reserve the right to change my mind based on new thoughts presented by intelligent co-players.

So I'm still suspicious of Spawn

Originally Posted by Saucy

I am surprised that spawn was caught up in the shoddy reasoning that led to him being lynched.

Originally Posted by Guy

spawn, in a very long post, casually remarked that she thought Form was being more defensive than usual.

Originally Posted by Saucy

Tom, Lommy, spawn and Fin voted for Boro yesterday.

I hunch that one of the werewolves may have voted for Boro.


Therefore:

-- Caranlondien

++ Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

[Findëasëa]

Although posting frequency is something that we should examine, I think that there is a difference between volume and substance. The acting pattern that I find most suspicious at this time is that of the falsely helpful villager. The actions of someone who would fit into this pattern posts little of substance, instead choosing to leach off of others arguments while doing little theorizing. So instead of a contribution they might offer more of a commentary. I am going to look back to try to identify people who might fit into this category.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Fascinating reading material that you've all given me.

Based on vibes (cut me slack, I'm tired after packing my entire room up and moving home in one 103* afternoon while also stressing over the coming weekend and trying to finish rewrites), I'm currently leaning toward the innocence of Saucie and LMP. Those vibes are subject to change at any time, but right now I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and given that I'm leaning toward Spam's innocence, I'm also leaning toward listening to his opinions with more than a "he's probably a wolf so I'm going to ignore him."

I'm reserving my thoughts on Form's death and the Caran Bandwagon until after I've had some sleep.

[Thinlómien]

morm really worries me. Yesterday he posted twice, both posts only a few lines. He explained he had a lot of work, so I let it be. Today, however, when I came to check how our village is doing, I find one post from morm, only a few lines echoing things that have been said and adding one vote to a bandwagon. I find this very odd. This is not his usual playing style. Usually he discusses and gives theories and ends up with quarreling with somebody. (No offense, morm.) If I could imagine morm trying to fly under radar it'd be this, but this would be a stupid move from wolf-morm since it gathers attention. Furthermore, I've seen a wolf-morm and he played his normal way. So I have no idea what to make of this (expect that morm's busy and he just doesn't mention it on the TiG-thread ). I will keep my eyes on this weird creature (). And morm, I'd be glad if you cared to explain.

Caran looks pretty bad now, but I hesitate to make her my suspect before I've reread through her posts myself. I think I might only be influenced by the public opinion.

[Cailín]

A lot of early suspicion and even some bandwagoning, I see. Now I may be wrong, but Caranlondien personally does not strike me as decidedly wolvish. I will have to review her posts again myself - as Lommy said, tis easy to be swayed by public opinion - yet she seems too forward and too genuine to be a wolf. My lorebooks say nothing on Caran as a fanged one, I think, but I'd say she'd be a more flying under radar type. So for now, I must agree with Fin.

The death of Boromir surprised and disappointed me greatly. His innocence was pretty obvious to me. Of course, I voted for an innocent too..

Originally Posted by TGWBAsh

I find this very suspicious and wouldn't put it past both of them being wolves. I would like to hear why Cailin suddenly changed her mind. Spawn, meanwhile, appears to be very influential in her summary posts.

Well, I am not denying Spawn is not very influential, but my reasoning was as follows: there was no one I was really suspicious of, as I clearly stated before. So in traditional Day 1 style, I was grasping at straws. Secondly, I really had expected more contribution from Formendacil later on, and he did post more, but only after I had already left. And thirdly, I was trying to be 'fair'. A lot of time, people are exempt from Day 1 votes based on their reputation (oh - they'll be more helpful later on), which might not be the right way to go about this. Now I admit that's a bit shoddy, but frankly, I couldn't come up with a more decent case.

Form as an innocent dying does not surprise me. Probably the "be more helpful later on" thing combined with leaving the tiniest trail as possible.

As to Saucepan Man… I am inclined to trust him, still, but I acknowledge that we cannot blindly assume his innocence. That is why -in his case- I rely on the Seer / Changeling dreaming / becoming him. It sounds a little paranoid, but he's just too good to neglect.

I also agree - to an extent - with Lommy's thoughts on Morm.

I'm going to review Spawn's, Caran's and Fin's posts. Be back later.

[Lhunardawen]

I know I'm not the tragedienne, but I'm almost tempted to keel over and die with the wanderer, with whom I feel a bit of connection - we're both lost...sort of. Yet maybe I can help with finding and destroying the fiends who did this before I do.

So. Boromir's lynching yesterDay is really odd...reminds me of a certain Gurthang from a village of old: he died for presenting a possible strategy without really presenting it, if you know what I mean. Why can't we all learn that when people do this they're usually innocent? Just usually, mind.

Anyways, I mostly agree with SpM's analysis of the Boromir-voters. Right now I'm not yet suspicious of dancing spawn - the mere thought of her being a wolf makes me shudder. However with the usual mayhem of Day Ones I doubt the wolves would actually contribute to an innocent's death, so here ends my thoughts on Boromir's lynching.

Now, on to last Night's kill choice *wipes away tear*. The easiest explanation so far as I can see is that he left no trails yesterDay. And of course, it will confuse us. I think a double bluff from Caran is too far-fetched a theory; I'm more ready to believe that at least one of his voters - Elempi, SpM, or Cailín - is lupine. But even that is not enough basis to suspect them much.

I know how hard it is to read lengthy posts so I'll post my own suspicions separately, after I have time to organize my thoughts. Sort of.

[Lhunardawen]

Lommy got there before I did: yes, I find morm...unsettling. It doesn't seem to be him. So with Elempi. I find it hard to believe that he will jump to vote just like that. Maybe there's RL to blame for both of them, or they're trying a different playing style, or they're gauging reactions, or they're executing what Boromir insisted yesterDay as a way of using retractable votes to catch wolves. But I'm sure it's safe to say that this is odd behavior for them.

A case has also been made against Kakashi...I mean Durelin. Elempi said in her defense that she is capable of recklessness, but that's exactly the kind of reasoning that lets us ignore the bold wolves.

Finally, this probably makes no sense but I'm a bit wary of Fea. Randomness is always scary.

[Cailín]

Looking back, I cannot find the post TGWBS was referring to, which could have swayed me. That's a relief.

Spawn looks less wolvish to me after reviewing what she has said. Her vote for Boromir is a bit odd and something I don't agree with, but she also expressed suspicion of Formendacil. I would think Spawn the Wolf a little more subtle than having her main Day 1 suspects both killed off immediately, if you get what I mean.

Caranlondien was acting a little flip-floppy yesterDay. If she's a wolf, she is a decidedly lot braver than I guessed she would be (no offence meant, of course, Caran strikes me as the careful wolf type). She accused almost all the 'big names' which is quite a daring strategy.

I think a double bluff from Caran is too far-fetched a theory; I'm more ready to believe that at least one of his voters - Elempi, SpM, or Cailín - is lupine. But even that is not enough basis to suspect them much.

I agree and I don't.

I personally think the (majority of) wolves are among those people who mentioned Formendacil little if at all.

[Lhunardawen]

I forgot to add that though I'm uncomfortable with Fea's randomness, I count her unwillingness to use the retract votes function in her favor. So that's my opinion for everyone to see: I've never played with them before, but I will not retract my votes if I can help it, and I shall keep an eye on those who do it a lot.

Time to give in to timezones. We really need a doctor in these parts.

Hoom, hoom.

++DURELIN

I wouldn't put it past her to be a bold wolf.

Good Day, everyone.

[tom bombariffic]

Just checking in before I begin my morning's analysis of day 1 key players.

I'll be around more today than on day 1, which is good news (hopefully). As far as what has already been said goes, I'm certainly slightly swayed by this caranlondian suspicion. I think morm's emphasis on her over-reaction (lmp may have said this too) is a key point, and one that strikes me as very odd. I'm witholding judgement for now but I've got my better eye on you, Caran...

Having said this, I'm also suspicious of morm. This issue had been alluded to, most substantially by thinlomien, but never really discussed. I'm just very aware that morm's most recent ancestor was a wolf, who was very successful because he kept playing exactly like his ancestors. To behave the same again would cause suspicion, and so perhaps he felt that a change in style, becoming less dominant, may help him slip through the net. I'll be interested to see how he acts today.

I'll be back shortly having looked back properly at day 1.

bombariffic

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Nilpaurion Felagund has left the game.

You have been granted control of Nilpaurion Felagund's units.

[littlemanpoet]

I know for me, and perhaps for Morm this also applies: werewolf weariness. The interest is there, but the strength of mind just is taking a little while to catch up. SPM, however, his ancestors were out early in the last great tide of evil, and so he's raring to go. As to different playing style, I refer you to the fact that votes are retractable, and therefore, why not? Puts a little pressure on those suspected. Seems appropriate to use the device if it's there to be used. That's all for now.

[tom bombariffic]

SpM started out day 1 in a fairly light tone, with an in-character post predicting the outcome of the game (post 13).

He followed this immediately with a serious note about the changeling (they should be good) and then a random vote for fea.

This was a jokey, easy-going, day-1 start; practical, but taking it easy. However, when the village's confusion became clear, SpM took control.

Post 46 was a long one. After an initial in-character spiel, and a note to nilp (which, incidentally, just baffled me at the time), there followed a long argument for the changeling being 'good', and some observations on retractable votes (they can, and should, be used to our advantage). He declined (like boro, which he noted) to say how they could be useful, but maintained that they could.

He concluded this post with a long series of reactions to suspicious behaviour:
Fea for over-reacting to suspicions against her (including his)
Form and Lommy for claiming that Day 1 is useless
Nilp for his "lynch the loudmouths" campaign
Caran and Cailin (slightly suspicious of both) for jumping on the retractable votes bandwaggon.

Fea persuaded him to change his vote to form (reasoning that he was always suspicious of her, and that she had been posting in-character), though he found this in itself suspicious, and continued to watch her like a saucy hawk. He acknowledged himself that fea's quick reply to his comments about her showed that she wasn't as pressed for time as she made out, and that she was too quick to defend herself, and yet still changed his vote to form, who he had far less suspicions about. This is the only major thing from his participation on day 1 that I am worried about.

The next post also showed inconsistency, explaining how retractable votes can be useful (after saying that he wouldn't). He was not even pressed into doing this: Boromir was under suspicion, not him. However, to me, his diving in seemed more like an attempt to move the village in the right direction rather than anything particularly wolfish.

After this, an innocent response to kath's clarification of the changeling role, and the propounding of his ill-fated (now extinct) animalia theory.

a quick series of short posts followed, in which he basically replied to people doubting him. Again, there was very little suspicious in them. They were a defence of his posting against inconsistency (in which I agreed with sauce) and a couple of posts on his animalia theory.

In post 68, SpM actually contradicted celuien's defence of him, saying that he is suspicious, just not evil. I never like it when people say this, but an awful lot have, so he's not alone. In his next post, number 74, with his explanation of how the wolves should be acting and his categorisation of villagers into behavioural groups, he said that the signs of wolfishness would be ineffectual posting, or attempts to keep day 1 unprofitable. This was straight down the line of what he has been saying all along. So was his next post, in which he insisted on boromir's innocence.

Next he defended his categorisation of me as not particularly wolfish, basically saying I'm rubbish but not a wolf. Which is a fair point. I'm not sure whether he was implying that I was trying to say little of value, or that I just had said little of value, but I assume it was the latter, as the former would surely have made him more suspicious than he appears to be.




Thus ends my long and boring narration of saucepan man's life story. Now, perhaps, some analysis.

At first, I was suspicious of him. His early lack of seriousness followed by a sudden flood of earnest posts about boromir and retractable votes struck me as odd, and my initial assumption was that, after trying to keep a low profile, he saw himself being suspected and tried to take control of the voting to save himself.

But I'm not so sure. Whilst over the subject of feanor he did change his mind rather inexplicably, he has been by and large extremely consistent in his attitude, and was proven right about boromir. He has also tried to look at everyone, rather than campaigning against a particular person.

One thing that does make me uncomfortable is the overt way in which he took control; given the killing of formendacil, a particularly low-participating player, his control of the village worried me. But the voting for boromir was strongly against his wishes, so perhaps I am over'stating his influence, and the kill was on someone he voted for (form), which would be a bold move for a wolf.

Looking over yesterday has reassured me. I think it's important to watch how he tries to influence people, and how he reacts if others (eg morm) become more prominent as well, but for now he's clear of suspicion in my mind.

bombariffic

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Cailín

As to Saucepan Man… I am inclined to trust him, still, but I acknowledge that we cannot blindly assume his innocence. That is why -in his case- I rely on the Seer / Changeling dreaming / becoming him.

With all these warm, fuzzy vibes I seem to be getting at the moment, it’s quite possible that the Wolves will remove me from the equation overnight. Come on people, I want some suspicion!

Originally Posted by Fin

The actions of someone who would fit into this pattern posts little of substance, instead choosing to leach off of others arguments while doing little theorizing.

I agree that this would have been the Wolfish strategy yesterday, when there was little sense in the Wolves taking risks. Today, they might be a little more influential in an attempt to sway the village, particularly if one of their number is in the firing line. Those who seemed to me yesterday to fall into the pattern described by Fin are Mith, Elempi, morm, TGWBS and Caran.

I am still wary of Caran. I take the point that she has been less careful than we might expect from a Wolfish Caran and that she is not the type to go for the bluff of killing the one who voted for her. On the latter point, though, she would be one of three Wolves and she has acknowledged that she is easily swayed. Today, she has spent a fair bit of energy defending herself, but that could go either way. I also remain doubtful that a Wolf would openly have admitted trying to place a safe vote. If she is innocent, then there may indeed be something malign behind the quick votes for her today, following the suspicions initially raised by TGWBS and me – especially on Elempi’s part, given the speed with which he changed his vote following some points raised in Caran’s favour.

I also remain wary of Lommy, since she seemed to be the main protagonist behind the briefings against Boro yesterday. Plus, on reviewing what she said, she did get rather tangled up and flustered in the retractable votes and Day 1 debates yesterday, when pressed by Boro and me.

Originally Posted by Lommy @ #33

Retractable votes create confusion. There are lots of early votes thrown around... I understand people just want to stir the discussion a bit, or have fun, but wouldn't that make a perfect cover for a wolf? Especially when there's plenty of these random votes around...

Negative and unhelpful.

Originally Posted by Lommy @ #33

... the prevailing conditions being retractable votes and Day 1, I really can't say anything, except that whoever the wolves are it's easy to hide for them toDay.

Again, unhelpful.

Originally Posted by Lommy@ #41

I didn't say retractables are not a benefit to the village, because they are, in some situations. I just don't like people toying with them.

She may not have said retractable votes were of no benefit to the village but, in labelling them confusing and as providing cover for Wolves, she was pretty much saying that they are of gereater benefit to the Wolves than to the village.

Originally Posted by Lommy @ #71

So I'm not completely anti-Day1, you see. I just dislike them on Day1s.

This was her objection to my suggestion that she was anti-Day 1s. But my point was that sitting and railing about how awful Day 1s are and doing little else is entirely unhelpful. As Boro noted at the time, disliking Day 1s on Day 1 falls into that category. This is also the post where she seized upon Tom’s point about Boro being suspicious for not explaining what he was doing with his votes, essentially the argument which led to Boro being lynched.

In Lommy’s favour, I am still doubtful that any of the Wolves would have felt the need to vote for Boro yesterday. However, when she voted, it was by no means certain that his neck would end up in the noose. Perhaps, having pursued him with such vigour, she felt that voting for him was less risky than switching suspicions. Her other main suspect, I believe, was me, and I was looking to be in some danger at the time she voted.

Originally Posted by Lommy

morm really worries me. Yesterday he posted twice, both posts only a few lines. He explained he had a lot of work, so I let it be. Today, however, when I came to check how our village is doing, I find one post from morm, only a few lines echoing things that have been said and adding one vote to a bandwagon. I find this very odd. This is not his usual playing style.

Agreed. I would be surprised if a Wolfish morm chose to adopt such an uncharacteristic approach. But it may be that it has been forced upon him by circumstances. Not enough to arouse major suspicion, but I’ll be keeping my eye on him.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Finally, this probably makes no sense but I'm a bit wary of Fea. Randomness is always scary.

No, it makes perfect sense. She can be a tricksy one, that Fea. I am still concerned over the way she was so keen to stomp on the mild suspicions expressed about her early on yesterday. It was, as I recall, her main contribution to the debate yesterday. I also don’t like her last minute vote for me. With only Fin and Nogrod to vote, and with Nogrod having made clear that I was not high in his suspicions, there was little chance that I would be lynched at that point, so it was a fairly safe “throwaway” vote. She certainly remains high in my suspicions.

Finally, as to Durelin, I wouldn’t put it past her to be a bold Wolf either, but her behaviour yesterday was unduly reckless for a Wolf on Day1.

[tom bombariffic]

In looking over sauce's actions, It hit me just how little morm has participated - I knew he's only posted a little, but it's all been very low on content as well.

I take lmp's point about werewolf fatigue - but that's no reason not to explain your votes. I know it would be silly for him to change his playing style so drastically - but this may be the perfect bluff. Also, as I've already suggested, he may have felt that he had to after his immediate ancestor's success.

I'll be watching to see if he posts later in the day.

bombariffic

[The Saucepan Man]

Nice analysis, Tom.

A few points:

Fea didn't persuade me not to vote for her. My early vote for her was, in part, a ruse and was never intended necessarily to stand. Even though it did provoke a reaction, I was concerned that I might be reading too much into it, influenced by the fact that I always find Fea suspicious. I didn't like Form's Day 1 attitude and thought he looked more suspicious than her at the time, so switched my vote. Fea remains very much in my thoughts, though.

With regard to your Boro vote, it looked to me at the time to be a rather makeshift argument to get you in the village consciousness without attracting too much attention, and I did not agree with it. But I accept that there was little to go on at the time. Your contributions today have been impressive, and I am feeling pretty comfortable about you at the moment.

As for me taking control, well I do like to get my thoughts and arguments across and sometimes I do so aggressively. If I think someone is suspicious, I generally like to outline my reasoning as best I can. It's the advocate in me. My ancestors have been accused of trying to take control and influence the village. To an extent, that's kind of the point of the game (at least the way I play it). But no one should simply accept anyone else's arguments, theories or reasoning without considering them and making up their own mind. And there are some pretty strong-willed villagers in this particular village, so I am not sure that there is much of a danger of any one preson taking too much control.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

I know for me, and perhaps for Morm this also applies: werewolf weariness. The interest is there, but the strength of mind just is taking a little while to catch up.

A good point I didn't think about. But according to my experiences, this weariness usually occurs only with ordos. So should we conclude morm's most probably innocent? Or could he bluff here? I'm waiting for an explanation, whatever the case is.

Originally Posted by Saucie

I also remain wary of Lommy, since she seemed to be the main protagonist behind the briefings against Boro yesterday.

What do you mean by "the main protagonist behind the briefings against Boro yesterday"? That it was mainly my fault he got lynched?

[the guy who be short]

Interesting that you should seize on my comments when TGWBS was the first to voice suspicion of you today. (Panman aimed at durelin)

It's not like you, SpM, to make mistakes. In my one fleeting mention of durelin today, I supported her for being anti-retractable votes (though it has now been pointed out that she wasn't quite so anti-retractable as I thought) and pro-random voting. You can't afford to make mistakes, SpM, because you're you. This doesn't look good for you.

Originally Posted by Cailin

Looking back, I cannot find the post TGWBS was referring to, which could have swayed me. That's a relief.

Post 49 by spawn. In particular, the line

Form seems more frustrated and complains about Day One more than usually.

All this theorizing about morm and LMP and Caran and durelin and whatnot is all very interesting. But I'm going to ignore it for the moment. You see, one in five of us is still a wolf, and I don't know who I should be listening to. I shall therefore go over posts and form my own conclusions. Perhaps some with coincide with others' ideas. I will then look over others' ideas again, and analyse them, presuming I have time.

Cailin - fair enough. Thank you for replying.

[Thinlómien]

I'm going now and I'm not 100% sure that I will be back. So

++mormegil

I'm a bit wary of him plus I'm no admirer of his current playing style.

If I will be back, as I probably will, I will take another look at the village and find some real suspects.
If not this is it for toDay.

[the guy who be short]

Post 6 - Nothing of importance.
Post 10 - Votes spawn. No reason.
Post 19 - Switches vote to SpM, again with no reasoning..
Post 39 - Says since he is innocent, he won't explain how retractables help him, but they do. Changes vote to Lommy because she says retractables cause confusion and would be perfect cover for a wolf.
(Post 40, Lommy says she says retractables can help the village but doesn't like people toying with them.)
(Post 43, Tom bombariffic votes Boro for not revealing how he will use retractables and emphasising his innocence. Says there is no real evidence, but those two things caught his attention.)
(Post 46 - SpM supports Boro)
(Post 49 - Spawn subtly attacks Boro, saying he is fickle and threatens people.)
(Post 71, Lommy says she is uncomfortable with Boro because another wolf acted like him once. She sympathises with tom bombariffic's points.)
(Post 75, Findeasea says a wolf wouldn't argue about retractables as much as Boro did.)
(Post 77, SpM defends Boro lots.)
(Post 81 - Cailin says he looks innocent.)
(Post 85 - Mith insinuates that Boro is a gifted because of his early note and vote for spawn.)
(Post 90 - Lommy votes Boro saying she gave reasoning in post 71.)
Post 93 - Says he will stick for his Lommy vote because she doesn't explain how retractables give wolves cover and for shoddy reasoning. Says he dislikes random votes, what foolery. Vote of confidence in SpM.
(Post 94, Durelin says she is getting suspicious of Boro for not working in a team.)
Post 95 - Boromir responds by saying there's no reason for him to work in a team he disagrees with. Defends his multiple voting. Says he wants people to think for themselves.
(Post 96, spawn accuses Boromir of twisting Lommy's words in post 40.)
(Post 97, mith is no longer confident in boro)
(Post 99, Durelin says if we all acted like Boro, we'd all be alone.)
(Post 100, Cailin says Boro seems innocent and uses retractables to provoke discussion.)
(Post 105, Spawn votes Boromir for feeling foul.)
(Post 108, Wonderful post by Findeasea about how Boromir doesn't work in a team. She votes for him.)
Post 109 - Claims he didn't twist Lommy's quote. Says Fin, Nogrod, SpM are innocent. Expects more from morm, LMP. Says Mith is worrying because she openly stated she thought he was gifted.

Dear Lord, that was horrendously long. Far longer than I expected. So the analysis that should go with this will come a bit later. I post this for reference.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

I know for me, and perhaps for Morm this also applies: werewolf weariness. The interest is there, but the strength of mind just is taking a little while to catch up. SPM, however, his ancestors were out early in the last great tide of evil, and so he's raring to go. As to different playing style, I refer you to the fact that votes are retractable, and therefore, why not? Puts a little pressure on those suspected. Seems appropriate to use the device if it's there to be used. That's all for now.

I'm doing my morning catch up and have to say that I agree 100% with this one. I wish I could give you a big hug right now LMP because this is exactly how I feel. Thinlo, perhaps I don't wish to use the town notice board to explain an absence of a couple of hours as everybody else seems so set on. I never mind a bit of suspicion about me but Thinlo your desire to grasp at any straw that might be moderately suspicious is in itself rather suspicious to me. If memory serves me well you did this yesterday with Boromir. I haven't had a lot of time to reread the thread and garner suspicions yet but one thing that sticks out to me is you and your desire to twist and turn everything said and done. Your interaction with SpM yesterday shocked me at how you would twist his words and weren't willing to understand what he was saying.

My current top suspects today are
Caran
Thinlo
TGWBS

Oh and just so nobody, Thinlo and others, freak out I've been told that there is a 'butchers' conference today and I will be in attendance. However this lets out at the same time as the village ends voting so I won't be back until tomorrow, if I'm alive.

[Mithalwen]

Am reading now and then - not able to really post yet.. sorry.... Bad RL day. As soon as I can you will get my full attention.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm finally here, but I'm afraid I can't participate very much today (how convenient, you think, just when people were starting to suspect her ).
If you feel the urge to vote for me, go ahead, because I'm not in the mood for being very concerned about that. Now, time for some thoughts of my fellow villagers.

Usually the wolves want to get rid of the Seer as soon as possible. If Form was killed because the wolves thought that he was the Seer, it looks pretty bad for Caran who received a vote from Form yesterDay. It might be stupid behaviour from a Seer to vote for a dreamed wolf right away, and the wolves might have guessed that, but I don't know if the wolves want risk to keep the Seer around any longer than they have to, so either Form was mistaken for the Seer or then his death was supposed to throw us off the wolves' tracks.

Caran is acting more defensively and "insecurely" than what would be necessary if she was an innocent, but my ancestor has supected hers for the same reasons before and she turned out to be not guilty. I'll keep an eye on her.

Sauce still seems different from his usual self, but then again, quite a few people have switched their style, so I need to go through his posts more carefully when I have time before I'll get influential or whatever. ( )

I'm a bit disappointed in Lmp's reason to vote for me. I don't care if he votes for me or anyone else, but he cast a vote just saying that one of the wolves might have voted for Boro, and he thinks that Sauce and TGWBS might be onto something. I don't see either of them really accusing me, so I'd appreciate if someone actually made a case against me before basing a vote for one. I understand the point about WW tiredness, but it would be nice if people could stay alert long enough for giving as good reasons for a vote as possible.

Lommy is being as flip-floppy as ever which is somewhat reassuring, but she seems a bit edgier than usual. I'm not so sure about her anymore.

I'm still wary of TGWBS, but I'll get back to that later if I have time.

[The Saucepan Man]

It's not like you, SpM, to make mistakes. In my one fleeting mention of durelin today, I supported her for being anti-retractable votes (though it has now been pointed out that she wasn't quite so anti-retractable as I thought) and pro-random voting. You can't afford to make mistakes, SpM, because you're you. This doesn't look good for you.

Actually, that was addressed to Caran.