Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Thinlómien]

Nogrod: two things:

1) I don't know (= I didn't understand) what you were trying to say about the time zones, but the deadline is 1pm GMT here.

2) I understand that you don't like people not mentioning the time zone when speaking about when will they be back etc., but I think you're getting overheated... Now, at least, you can't say that you don't understand why people think you aggressive...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Nogrod: I understand that you don't like people not mentioning the time zone when speaking about when will they be back etc., but I think you're getting overheated... Now, at least, you can't say that you don't understand why people think you aggressive...

C'mon? Who's overheating here? Is your wolfishness so hard to bear?

[Firefoot]

My thoughts about how the wizrds might work...

I agree that it is definitely not in the best interest of the EW to challenge early. Right now, the wolf-to-villager ratio is about 1:13 (not including wizards). These are horrible odds, and despite the lack of gifteds if I were a wolf I would not be feeling very comfortable with playing the rest of the game this way. My guess is the EW waits until the ratio is at least 1:3 or, depending on the circumstances, 1:2. As for the GW, I think that revealing his/herself would be a bad idea; this leaves it up to the EW to decide the circumstances of the challenge and helps the EW decide who to curse and how to act. The GW needs to concentrate on finding the EW and hopefully challenge him/her fairly soon; any time after we have a seer and a ranger would probably work. A hunter would be nice, but not necessary. Someone said something earlier about the GW being able to guide the villagers actions; I would say that until we have a gifted or two this really would not be particularly necessary, and maybe not even smart. Certainly, the GW should not be telling us everything; this tells the EW those exact same things. I'm not saying it wouldn't work; I'm saying we would need to be careful about how and when we did it.

The other thing is that, with the exception of the couple of individuals that the GW scries, s/he is not actually going to know a whole lot more about the status of individual players than the rest of the innocents, which makes me a little leary of just letting the GW lead the charge. Reading up in my lorebooks, I've been finding that it takes long enough for the seer in a regular village to gather enough information to be really useful; how much more so in our quite sizable village? And once we're attempting to rely on seer dreams, we can't trust that information to be valid for more than a couple days.

As for suspicions... I'm still working my head around to that one. So many people...

[Alcarillo]

Just checking in to see what's happening and to tell everyone that I'm back from my long nap. *yawn*

Originally Posted by Saucepan

An excellent point. Lalaith or Firefoot would be good choices, but there are others too. By deleting from my previous list those who I think the GW might pick as a choice of Gifted, I can narrow it down further, as follows:

Azaelia, Oddwen, Alcarillo, Roa, Diamond or Gurthang

My vote will come later, but it will most likely be for one of those.

Well, I agree with my wife when she says she thinks some of these people would be chosen as Gifteds. If I were the GW, I would choose some of these villagers to be Gifteds, because they tend to last a while into the game, whether by being clever or by flying under the radar. True that that's also great when playing a wolf, but I wouldn't lynch these folks yet (especially not myself!).

Let's try to root out the EW first before he focus on the wolves. I thought I'd like to remind people of these criteria Feanor came up with:

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

The evil wizard (okay... speaking plainly now...) volunteered for the job. The evil wizard, ergo, is somebody with a bit of time on his or her hands at the moment. The evil wizard is probably not going to be one of the students playing with finals coming up. The evil wizard is probably not going to be somebody that can't guarantee specific hours during the day in which to take care of wizarding business. The evil wizard (and the good, yes, the good) are going to be players with a bit of time to spare.

Cross-posted with Firefoot

[Thinlómien]

I'm very concerned about my parents... They are lost! The have vanished! *cries* They have turned me, Glirdy and Cara down! *sob*

According to my werewolf lorebooks both of them (Sleepy Ranger and Roa_Aoife) are players who check in the village quite frequently during the day. It is not like them to appear just on the few last hours, or not to appear at all. Where are they?

Mummy, Daddy, I miss you! Come here! Your little daughter is all alone... *sniff*



edit: cross-posted with Alcarillo

[Caranlondien]

Note: that last quote in my previous post was from The Phantom. Forgot to put that in...

Don't worry, Lommy, I'm sure our parents are just, er... Well, I don't know what they're doing. Hope they're not off trying to hide some new fur...

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

However, I see your point about the GW stepping forward on Day 3 or 4, and although it's up to the GW themselves, I tend to agree. Still, if the GW/ Seer/ Villagers manage to spot the EW before that, it'd be great.

I agree. This is what I was trying to say earlier - leave it up to the GW; I have faith that he/she knows what he/she is doing.

Wow. The amount of talking we're doing is slightly overwhelming (I hadn't finished catching up when I made my last post). All caught up now, though.

Now I forget who said it, but someone talked about the "Loki Bandwagon". Not much of a bandwagon yet, as he(/she) has only one vote. I'll admit, he(/she) has come under significant suspicion toDay, but that's really his(/her) own doing. If we do end up lynching him(.../her...), it would be far less random than some of the Day 1 bandwagonning I've read about in my lorebooks.

Left without any other major suspects, and given that I must vote now, that is how I shall cast my vote. I don't mean to start a bandwagon that werewolves can easily hide in, but I don't know whom else to suspect.

++Loki

Recap of the voting so far:
1. Nilp --> Nogrod (Nogrod 1)
2. Lhuna --> Eomer (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1)
3. Gurthang --> Lommy (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1)
4. Diamond --> Loki (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 1)
5. Eonwe --> Nilp (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 1, Nilp 1)
6. Cailín --> Oddwen (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 1, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1)
7. Caran --> Loki (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1)

[Glirdan]

I'm very concerned about my parents... They are lost! The have vanished! *cries* They have turned me, Glirdy and Cara down! *sob*

According to my werewolf lorebooks both of them (Sleepy Ranger and Roa_Aoife) are players who check in the village quite frequently during the day. It is not like them to appear just on the few last hours, or not to appear at all. Where are they?

Mummy, Daddy, I miss you! Come here! Your little daughter is all alone... *sniff*

There, there Lommy. I'm sure they have a reasonable explanation for not being here. Cara and I will take care of you. I just wish they would get here because we won't be able to live on our own for to long.

[Valier]

Wow you wake up and there are now four pages, instead of one!! I have lots of reading to do, but I will be around. I'll be back in awhile, hopefully with something good.

[Thinlómien]

Well, at least I have loving siblings. I promise, I won't vote for you today, especially as you have been reasonable this far.

As my time here toDay draws close (I might have to go soon) I think it is time for me to speak of my suspicions. (<- I hope that didn't sound overwhelmingly dramatical...)

Lhuna seems a bit odd. Spawn sums it up quite well:

She poses a question asking for names for possible wolves, but refuses to answer herself. Then she pulls out an example of a situation where a big-name villager was lynched with profitable consequences even though he contributed much. Lhuna wonders if we have the courage to do it in this Village, too.

Loki is completely weird and I'd like to lynch him since he's only creating confusion, but I'm not sure if I believe in his lycantrophy/evilwizardness so much that I'd waste my vote on him.

Alcarillo is worrying me. He speaks too openly about gifteds. It serves only the baddies to speak of them.

I wouldn't like to say a word against my daddy who introduced me to pizza or my momma who comforts me if I have nightmares, but I'm beginning to be very concerned about their abnormal behaviour...

[Firefoot]

Might I recommend we not spread the voting too far out? With seven people having votes, that's about a fourth of the village - unless you are really suspicious of someone not on that list (and I'm not sure what sort of evidence anyone's likely to turn up at this point in the game), I would think that it's not too unreasonable to try and pick someone on it. According to my lorebooks, it's so much easier for wolves to hide when there are numerous people receiving votes - the more, the better for them - and now all the more so with them not necessarily knowing who each other are...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Might I recommend we not spread the voting too far out? With seven people having votes, that's about a fourth of the village - unless you are really suspicious of someone not on that list (and I'm not sure what sort of evidence anyone's likely to turn up at this point in the game), I would think that it's not too unreasonable to try and pick someone on it. According to my lorebooks, it's so much easier for wolves to hide when there are numerous people receiving votes - the more, the better for them - and now all the more so with them not necessarily knowing who each other are...

I don't recommend anyone vote for someone only because s/he has already been voted for. There isn't anything that makes the this far voted ones any more suspicious than anyone else. On the other hand, my ww lorebook agrees with yours.

Of the ones already voted for I could vote Loki or Oddwen. I don't find anything particularly irritating or suspicious in the other people. But I might vote Lhuna or Alca as well. Or someone else. I need more thinking before voting anyone.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

But it's just as easy to hide in a bandwagon.

[mormegil]

I've been gone since I last post...did I miss anything? Well I'll see if I can catch up. I knew this would be busy but this is staggering.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well....yeah. There are 30 folk and nothing to go on. What are we even doing? All we have are feelings as to who the EW would pick as wolves.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Well....yeah. There are 30 folk and nothing to go on. What are we even doing? All we have are feelings as to who the EW would pick as wolves.

*sigh*

And that's why "Figure out who the evil wizard is" is the best plan we have right now. Can't figure out how s/he thinks until we figure out who s/he is.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

But it's just as easy to hide in a bandwagon.

True, but bandwagoners are usually analysed the most on the next day.

Originally Posted by posts on this thread

Thinlómien 12
Diamond18 11
Cailín 8
Feanor of the Peredhil 8
littlemanpoet 7
dancing spawn of ungoliant 7
Nogrod 6
the phantom 6
Naria 5
Firefoot 5
Caranlondien 5
Eomer of the Rohirrim 5
Gurthang 5
Celuien 5
Glirdan 5
The Saucepan Man 5
Lhunardawen 4
Alcarillo 3
Loki 3
JennyHallu 3
Eonwe 2
mormegil 2
Valier 2
Azaelia of Willowbottom 2
Nilpaurion Felagund 2
Oddwen 2
Kath 2
Kitanna 1
+ Roa_Aoife 0
Sleepy Ranger 0

- It seems I can't get rid of my floody way of playing
- There are some people that I would like to see reappearing (see the non-posters and the people with 1-3) posts. Especially Loki. I would like to hear more about him.
- Some of the people mentioned above won't probably reappear toDay since they've already voted (Eonwe and Nilp at least)

edit: x-posted with Eomer and Fea

[Naria]

Okay, so far I have three people that are worrying me right now. They are:

Nogrod
The Phantom
and my dear ol daddy

I have put these in order of worrynessess. Nogrod is at the top because he isn't at all acting like he normally does, so the lorebook says,--in either a good or bad role--he hasn't even nearly posted as much as he usually does and he isn't getting himself involved in any discussions ie the ew and gw banter. He might just be an ordo and staying out of things, but that in itself is not him. Oh yeah, it isn't like him to come on and be the way that he was in post #118. Yeah he is an in your face kind of player,but even that is a little much and with no reason for it(that I can see).

The lorebook doesn't have much information(for me) about the phantom so I can't really say how he normally acts, but I find his decisive and firm belief in how the EW and the GW are/would play to be rather disturbing. I'm not saying that I don't agree with his points(I do), but how can someone be so sure about someone else's role?(unless he is one himself)

And finally we have Dad, what the bleep'n-bleep are ya doin putting your own family's heads on your choppin block.....I'm telling mum.....*yells from the top of the stairs* MOM, dad's doing it again. Now, in my opinion, Sauce hasn't really been acting himself either. Usually there is quite a bit of insight coming from his posts and I just can't see it and that worries me.


I won't vote for Loki(as of toDay) mainly because, although it was rather brash, I don't find too much wrong with his posts. I would like to see what he has to offer to the conversation upon his return(where'd he go anyway?)

I have to run out and grab my other mum(RL) something for Mother's Day. I will have to vote soon.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, let's figure out who the EW is. Oh wait, all we have are feelings...

[Glirdan]

Well....yeah. There are 30 folk and nothing to go on. What are we even doing? All we have are feelings as to who the EW would pick as wolves.

And this is why I hate Day 1's.

*sigh*

And that's why "Figure out who the evil wizard is" is the best plan we have right now. Can't figure out how s/he thinks until we figure out who s/he is.

Another reason why I hate Day 1's: you can't get any serious suspicions until after the first Day. However, I do agree with you that for toDay, this is the best plan of action that we have to go off of.

True, but bandwagoners are usually analysed the most on the next day.

And on Day 1's, the only reason why people bandwaggon is because
a) They are too lazy to find their own suspicions
b) They don't want to look odd for having a different vote

And I'm sure there are other personal reasons but those two seem to pop up (in my mind anyway) a lot.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Naria

Nogrod is at the top because he isn't at all acting like he normally does--in either a good or bad role--he hasn't even nearly posted as much as he usually does and he isn't getting himself invovled in any discussions ie the ew and gw banter. He might just be an ordo and staying out of things, but that in itself is not him. Oh yeah, it isn't like him to come on and be the way that he was in post #118. Yeah he is an in your face kind of player,but even that is a little much and with no reason for it(that I can see).

You raise a good point. I agree. He's usually much more actively in discussion and argumenting more. Maybe he wants not to get attention, since his playing style usually calls it quite a lot. I think he's protecting himself. But ordos do that too so that isn't leading us far. However, my werewolf lorebooks tell no tales of a wolf-Nogrod. We only know his ordo-style and his gifted-style, which are pretty much the same. Maybe this is how he acts when he's a wolf. He's more careful. Or maybe he's even the EW. You never know.

edit: xed with my big brother.

I would also add that we need to watch Nogrod at least, if not vote him.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Naria

The lorebook doesn't have much information(for me) about the phantom so I can't really say how he normally acts, but I find his decisive and firm belief in how the EW and the GW are/would play to be rather disturbing. I'm not saying that I don't agree with his points(I do), but how can someone be so sure about someone else's role?(unless he is one himself)

If it helps you any, I'd be petrified if he didn't come right in and tell us what's happening. My lorebooks are pretty conclusive on that one.

[Celuien]

The only reason I'm not voting for Loki is because I don't know if the confusion he's caused me is in character or an wolvish move. And I don't if I confused because I don't know him well or if it's genuine. For instance Nilp confuses me, but according to my books of werewolf lore, villagers named Nilp or Adam were born under a full moon and tend to be confusing, so I intend to give him a pass for a while. I'm afraid of being unfair to Loki if I don't give him the same chance. But in the absence of another suspect, I may vote for him. I'm just hesitant to do so because I feel like I'm just not giving our new resident a fair chance.

Clear enough?

SPM - it's true that the EW wants as many wolves as possible, but can win with just one. So while it's nice for the EW to have a full pack, it's not essential for victory, which is why I wonder if the EW would risk exposure by openly defending a transformed villagers. Just something I thought I'd put out there.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Nogrod also seems like a pretty good pick for the EW. Yeah, that goes for a lot of people. But there are certain villagers who are almost certainly not going to be picked: the usual suspects, the lynch candidates.

I think Loki is almost certainly not worth voting for today and I recommend that people stop voting for him/her. Even before we had the trouble with wolves in this village, we could easily see that Loki is an argumentative sort. The EW would not curse Loki.

Probably not Nilp either.

[Alcarillo]

Originally Posted by Thinlo

Alcarillo is worrying me. He speaks too openly about gifteds. It serves only the baddies to speak of them.

It was never my intent to aid the baddies. I was only giving my opinion of Saucepan's lists.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Well, let's figure out who the EW is. Oh wait, all we have are feelings...

Ah, my son, don't you ever listen to your father?

Originally Posted by Me

Let's try to root out the EW first before he focus on the wolves. I thought I'd like to remind people of these criteria Feanor came up with:

As to whom I am suspicious of, I have to say the Saucepan Man. He's been making all of these lists about potential werewolves. Maybe he's tryin' to throw us off the track of the EW. I dunno. And look at that EW criteria above! The Saucepan Man is a non-student, a very experienced player (the sort who would volunteer for a job as the wizard), and lives in a nice time-zone. Couldn't he be the EW?

Cross-posted with the last few posts

[Celuien]

Right. Eomer makes sense. I can't imagine Nilp being cursed. He's too obvious a target for lynching with his enigmatic, odd behavior.

I'll go through everything that's been posted so far and try to analyse everyone. Not sure what it will tell us since there are few patterns that we can actually spot, but I'll give it a try. It will be done from the viewpoint of 'who would the EW want to curse.'

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

O yea, SPM has all the time in the world to mess about in the village.

The 'business factor' doesn't strike me as relevant at all. As for the assertion that students are the busiest — Ha! This is madness.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

++Nilp

gotta run!

And you'd better run fast!! What are you trying to do, eh? Make me a single mum of two? *throws muffins after Eonwe*

Originally Posted by Firefoot

With seven people having votes, that's about a fourth of the village - unless you are really suspicious of someone not on that list (and I'm not sure what sort of evidence anyone's likely to turn up at this point in the game), I would think that it's not too unreasonable to try and pick someone on it. According to my lorebooks, it's so much easier for wolves to hide when there are numerous people receiving votes - the more, the better for them - and now all the more so with them not necessarily knowing who each other are...

Actually, six which is a fift of the Village. Hide where? Among those who vote or those who receive votes? Right now when the Wolves don't know each other, they're just concerned about their own lives as is everyone else in this Village. Therefore I'm afraid that the votes will tell very little of possible culprits. So, if there is someone that you find more suspicious than others based on a gut feeling or whatever, why not vote for him/her?


Good points about Nogrod. I need to go rereading.

Btw, there are quite a few lorebooks floating around here, don't you think? Who writes them all?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Nogrod also seems like a pretty good pick for the EW.

Agree. Besides of being smart, not the first scry for the GW he's also usually so aggressive that he wouldn't be believed to be a wolf since it usually thought that wolves wouldn't play so rashly. Furthermore, my lorebook says that people generally trust him pretty much.

edit: xed with spawn and Eomer

[JennyHallu]

I need to go off and do housecleaning, and doubt I will return before the day is out. Therefore, I really ought to vote now.

++Saucepan Man

For reasons previously stated.

[Kath]

And on Day 1's, the only reason why people bandwaggon is because
a) They are too lazy to find their own suspicions
b) They don't want to look odd for having a different vote

Or because they find the person they are voting for suspicious, but someone else has already voted. Bandwaggoning doesn't necessarily mean you are following a group, either to hide or for ease, it can simply be accidental in a way.

I can see Eomer's point about the EW not choosing Loki due to his argumentative style, which was already evident before the game even began. It would be a dangerous move since Loki was bound to draw suspicion. Of course it could be a very clever bluff etc. but that's just too confusing right now! However, I would like to hear a bit more from him, as since those contentious posts this morning he hasn't said a word.

But SPM? Really? I know he's clever and a great player but does he really have the time to be the EW? Which, I assume, is why people are voting for him. It's a thought I suppose.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Celuien, Caranlondien, Roa, Nogrod, Alcarillo, Cailín, Oddwen, Jenny, Lalaith or Gurthang.

Others are more likely to be lynched early on, or dreamed about by a Seer, or scried by the GW.

So, it's one of those I'll vote for. And......soon!

[mormegil]

Sadly I have not been able to catch up and I don't believe I will be able to.

Thinlo wants to hear more from some...I want to hear less from others

++Kath

Call it a personal vendatta

I will stay more caught up hopefully in the future, but this 140 posts, or whatever we are at is simply outrageous.

[Thinlómien]

I think Nogrod is ruder, more nonsense and more in character than usually. The two later ones are quite alarming.

This:

Originally Posted by Nogrod, to me

C'mon? Who's overheating here? Is your wolfishness so hard to bear?

would probably worry me as being extremely jumpy if anyone else than he would have said it. Knowing Nogrod from RL I can tell that he really has sometimes that kind of awful sense of humour...

xed with morm and Eomer

[Kath]

++Kath

Call it a personal vendatta

Oy! Actually on second thought, fair enough

I want proper reasoned voting from you tomorrow though or I shall decide you are a wolf!

[Naria]

Well, I'm off to do some shopping. I will vote for

++Nogrod

I am very worried about him(as I stated above). Whether he is a wolf or the EW we need to know sooner than later.


Edit--cross posted

[Glirdan]

Kath! My beloved! You have returned!! Now this eases my pain immensely.

Or because they find the person they are voting for suspicious, but someone else has already voted. Bandwaggoning doesn't necessarily mean you are following a group, either to hide or for ease, it can simply be accidental in a way.

I knew there was something I forgot in that list! Thank you for stating it!

But SPM? Really? I know he's clever and a great player but does he really have the time to be the EW? Which, I assume, is why people are voting for him. It's a thought I suppose.

I hate to argue with you Kath, but I must. The only reason I see why the EW would choose SpM is because he's a great player. However, I highly doubt he did. This would be to obvious a move.

x-posted with to many to name

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

++NOGROD

Take it as a compliment: I'd curse you if I was evil.

[Thinlómien]

On second thought, Lhuna's logic makes sense and I don't have enough to go against Alca so I vote:

++Nogrod

I hope you won't lynch SPM only because you fear him.

edit: xed with Eomer

[Alcarillo]

Well, I'm stickin' to my crazy theory.

++Saucepan Man

[Nogrod]

Funny. When I try to be considerate / being busy, I'm the top of the suspicionn list... Great. Well, you just vote as you wísh. But don't go weeping afterwards.

But yes:
Lalaith has not appeared.

Roa and Sleepy have not appeared (Roa told she would have trroubles)
Morm has posted, but has not said anything, Valier has been careful too, and so has Kath.

Loki has been amazingly quiet after all the bragging, and even though Nilp didn't vote for himself this time, he had seemed to have no grounds whatsoever to his vote anyways...

The current standings are here:

Nilp --> Nogrod
Lhuna -->Eomer
Gurthang --> Thinlomien
Diamond --> Loki
Eonwe --> Nilp
Cailin --> Oddwen