Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[JennyHallu]

Diamond, there is a big difference between volume and substance.

[Nogrod]

Well, I have never seen this kind of mass-analysis before! It kind of exhausts even a dedicated WW-fan! There is much that is overlapping, but then again, cross-checking each others analysis is safe - so that the wolves can't twist them to their ways.

But I'm wondering, why no one analyzed Spawn, as s/he (good grief: s/he probably lives under 10 miles from me, and I don't even know, whether she is a he, or he a she...) is one highest in my suspicion list after doing my analysis...

Spawn's attack on Roa was just a case out of the blue (the reasons were pretty bad, if you look at them closer), the arguments against my plan just plain suspicious, and then the vote without anything more ado - from someone who wanted reasoned cases, not hunches!

For the case of shaman dreams, just look at this (not to ask for any merit for my bad idea, but to see the reaction to it)

It is easier to hide a dream into a good case since there will be so many of them around anyway (I hope) that the orcs can't tell which one of the arguments is based on a dream. And if the orcs should kill the one who had the dream, we shall see easily, whom that person dreamed of.

Now this is just pure maddness! No reason at all! But very good tactics for the orcs, if people believed this... It's nice, if the orcs don't know, which defence came from a dream, but then neither will we have an idea about the dreams, and us villagers will waste them with all the probability. This shaman system puts us in disadvantage already: why should we give the orcs still more to play on? And how could we "see easily" whom someone dreamed of, as we don't have the faintest about who living or dead dreamt in the first place? All this orc-propaganda?

Afterwards Spawn backed down on this - as I protested, but still tried to have it on somehow, saying, that the shaman would know, whom s/he deamt of. Surely would, but why on earth would an orc lie about the person dreamt of (and get caught by that) - they should only lie about the status of the dreamt person!!! and that's in no way known by the shaman. Spawn's arguments are bad, but still he tries to wrench us behaving in confused manner?

I'm not against good cases. That's what we will need. But swindling is serious...

I don't claim to have a "case" against Spawn, but would really like to hear Spawn's answers to these questions... (eg. artificial suspicions on Roa + vote with nothing more + asking villagers to play against our own best)

[Diamond18]

Okay, as to interpretations:

As I hinted at in my analysis, I find Jenny's posts suspicious, in that her first two seem to contradict each other:

#13 Mostly all in character, but talks about having thought about the Shaman dreams and says she agrees with Celuien.

#29 Says she’ll be in and out. Says to quit obsessing over the dreams and agreeing with each other, says to focus on finding and Orc.

In her first posts she talks about the dreams and agrees with someone, in her second post chastises everyone else for doing that same thing as she has done.

In her very next posts she levels accusations, which seems to me hasty for a third post. Very quick to form suspicions and make judgments, and is slightly hypocritical. I am not sure how suspicious to find her though, since part of my suspicion stems from annoyance with the way she is quick to condemn people for not playing the game the way she thinks they should. This isn't necessarily wolfish, it could just be Jennyish. I'll withold making a desicion until I can track more.

Nogrod posts the most of any player, and this is usual for him. He's the first to make suggestions and form theories about how to use the Shaman role. I think I tend to assume Nogrod is innocent from the get go, because I like the kinds of posts he makes, which could be an unhealthy mindset. He's kind of like the reverse of the coin of Jenny for me. I'm automatically suspicious of her and automatically trusting of him. So should I trust my gut on these two or realize when I'm not objective enough? I hate to go against my gut, but I hate to be irrational, too. Nogrod and Jenny are probably two people I'll be leaving alone until I can get past my automatic mindsets.

Next to Nogrod Roa posts the most. I don't really see anything terribly suspicious in her posts, or incongruent with the way I've seen her post as an innocent. But there's nothing saying "definitely innocent" either. I'm pretty neutral so far. Plus I think I hesitate to want to kill off people who are active and invested in the game. So I doubt I'll be voting for her unless something really interesting happens.

Celuien voted for me, and then seemed to regret it after I showed up. Feels genuine, but then since I know that I am innocent, I can't help but wonder if she was getting ready a Day 2 defense for herself should I die. Still, gut feeling is that her reasons/opinions were genuine from an innocent point of view.

Caran I find suspicious. She voted for me because other people were suspicious of me, which seems a lot like bandwaggoning to avoid having own opinion. She also thought Sleepy was more substantial than me, and in my view Sleepy was just weird and off the wall, stirring the pot and hardly substantial by anyone's measure of substance. I'd like to know what exactly tipped the scales in that matter.

Speaking of Sleepy. Is he crazy? Or crazy like a fox? A dork, or an orc? Is begging to be killed a good way to stay alive? Strange, strange little apple barrel. I've got mine eye on you....

Findëasëa was very contradictory, voting for Glirdan based on lack of substance and posting, after having only made one short post herself. I'm not going to condem this automatically since she's new (to the board as well as the game) but I think there's a danger in being too patient for too long. I can easily see her fellow Orcs and her deciding to play the "newbie" role. In other words, she could be more savvie than she appears. (I don't mean this as an insult, Fin, if you are an innocent, I just don't know anything about you to know whether you are a quiet type usually.)

Grend posted a little more, voiced some opinion on the matter of my impending doom, I'm waiting for some more before I can really make a desicion. Comments about Find and newbieness also apply here, though she was a little more outspoken.

As long as I'm doing newbies, there's LiS. I'm a little baffled by you, LiS -- did you read the rules for Werewolf before playing? Hopefully you'll get the hang of it soon.

Kitanna was very quiet, so I'm a little suspicious of her. But as she didn't post much, there's not much to go on. Her vote for Sleepy wasn't really suspicious seeing as how off the wall Sleepy was acting.

Naria only posted twice, very short posts, and didn't vote, due to the RL concerns. But I'm still a little baffled by her accusing me today of not being helpful, as she's really in no position to judge at the moment.

Spawn only made a few posts but they weren't suspicious to me. Or, I should say, not overly suspicious, since I'm always suspicious of people who just seem innocent.

Zali is actually pretty much the same as Spawn, her number of posts were similar and the content was actually similar in a way (analysis and suspicions of players followed by voting). This is actually the most suspicious thing about Spawn and Zali -- that they behaved somewhat similarly and Zali name only Spawn as likely innocent (besides her own self).

I'm not going to base my vote toDay solely on yesterDay's activity though, so I now await the continuation of toDay's activity.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But I'm wondering, why no one analyzed Spawn

I analyzed her, Nogrod. And she is a she.

I didn't actually find her as suspicious as you do, but I'll have to go find her actual posts again because I didn't write much down about them.

[Celuien]

The promised view of Naria:

Day 1:
#25: In character stuff, laments Farael, vows to aid the village against the orcs. Agrees about discretion for dreams. Doesn’t have any suspicions at the moment.
#35: Says orcs will pick off identified innocents one by one if revealed. Agrees that the topic should be dropped temporarily in favor of looking for orcs. Points out that Roa’s second quote attributed to her wasn’t hers. Notes her computer will be gone soon.

Does not return for vote.

Not much to go on (again) from day 1. Winds up just agreeing with everyone else. Can’t go one way or the other on suspicion of her.

Day 2:
#110: Celebrates Ranger’s good job. Apologizes for missing vote due to computer issues. (Believable and consistent with #35.) Still doesn’t suspect anyone.
#114: Finds Diamond’s posts conflicting with themselves regarding the helpfulness of analysis. Thinks Diamond may be trying to look helpful while not really helping.

And that’s it so far. Pending further developments, I don’t know what to think of her. But this situation seems fairly usual. There’s nothing overtly suspicious about her. I’ll add her to my watch list just because I don’t have much to go on yet. And I want something to go on.

See you in a few hours.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But I'm wondering, why no one analyzed Spawn

I'm hesitant to voice my suspicion of Spawn, since I'm not sure if I'm being objective. (She did vote for me after all.) But Spawn's case has left me basically confused. Especially her making a big deal out of my nonsense response to Jenny's nonsense accusation, when others had done the same thing. I'm afraid I don't understand what the problem is.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

I analyzed her, Nogrod. And she is a she.

I didn't actually find her as suspicious as you do, but I'll have to go find her actual posts again because I didn't write much down about them.

Thank's Diamond! Someone from the other side of the globe telling which sex someone living "next door" to you is... Could be called the "information society" - or do you Americans still use the term "Information Super Highway"?

I guess most of my suspicions on Spawn relate to the fact, that I see her playing selfcontradictory and with orc-helping ideas & still being not suspected by anyone... That is good gaming, and therefore very worrysome...

I hope, I will have better cases as the night crawls on.

Good Night (RL)!

[Legolas in spandex]

I guess she is a bit peculiar. I posted. Dunno if I'm too late.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legolas in spandex

I guess she is a bit peculiar. I posted. Dunno if I'm too late.

No you are not! Welcome!

You have approximately 20 hours to play! Go for it Legolas (I retreat to RL sleep, but will be back too, before the day ends)

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Thank's Diamond! Someone from the other side of the globe telling which sex someone living "next door" to you is... Could be called the "information society" - or do you Americans still use the term "Information Super Highway"?

Some might, I think it's a hackneyed phrase. Check the photo page, she's on there and she doesn't look like a boy.

I guess most of my suspicions on Spawn relate to the fact, that I see her playing selfcontradictory and with orc-helping ideas & still being not suspected by anyone... That is good gaming, and therefore very worrysome...

I can see what you mean about the comment on us easily being able to tell from the dreamers' posts who they dreamt of. I guess I mostly assumed that she was thinking that when a dreamer died their role as a dreamer would be revealed, like with the Seer. But I don't think that will be the case, will it? We won't know once a person dies if they ever dreamed or not. Or will we? I'm whipping myself into a froth of confusion, now.

[Caranlondien]

Caran I find suspicious. She voted for me because other people were suspicious of me, which seems a lot like bandwaggoning to avoid having own opinion. She also thought Sleepy was more substantial than me, and in my view Sleepy was just weird and off the wall, stirring the pot and hardly substantial by anyone's measure of substance. I'd like to know what exactly tipped the scales in that matter.

Diamond, I voted for you before you gave your response defending yourself; and, after reading that response, I do tend to believe you innocent. Also, I didn't base my vote on thinking that Sleepy had posted more substantially than you; I voted for you over him because where he was quiet, you were loud without saying very much at all. I find unhelpful loudness more suspicious than quietness.

Now, I've only just gotten here, so I have to go back and re-read (since I can't trust any of your analyses ) but here are my initial thoughts: As I've already said, Diamond is no longer the forerunner for my suspicion. Nogrod makes some interesting points about Spawn, whom I had previously been inclined to trust. So I think I'll analyze her first. I'm heartened that we're one up on the wolves in the village-kill to orc-kill ratio. Now come on, people, let's kill an orc!

EDIT: left out a word

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Diamond, I voted for you before you gave your response defending yourself; and, after reading that response, I do tend to believe you innocent. Also, I didn't base my vote on thinking that Sleepy had posted more substantially than you; I voted for you over him because where he was quiet, you were loud without saying very much at all. I find unhelpful loudness more suspicious than quietness.

Okay. I see (from looking over my analysis, the only one I trust ) that when you voted (#64) Sleepy had less posts than me. At the end of the Day, Sleepy had posted 9 times to my 8, and I so haven't been considering him quiet.

I now feel the need to make a few comments about, as Caran has just put it, "unhelpful loudness" or as others have put it, lots of unsubstantial "nonsense."

I should warn everyone that no, I will not be helpful. I cannot be helpful. Why? I don't know anything. I'm an Ordinary and have not received a dream from the Shaman, so I don't know anything. If I was a Seer or a Ranger or a Hunter or whatever, then maybe I'd been in a position to help the village, but as it stands, I know nothing. I really have no purpose in this game but to stay alive and try to figure out who is who. Since it's Day 2 and the village has been active, I've had a chance to form opinions and suspicions, but am otherwise in the same dark corner as any other ordo who has not gotten a dream. So unless I get a dream in the future, I won't be helpful. Don't expect me to be helpful. Do expect me to post more than just in character comments (as is really only befitting early Day 1 posts) but that's about it. (On the same subject, don't expect me to apologize or regret having been in character earlier.)

I suppose despite being an ordo I could still come up with some genius theory to help figure out who the Orcs are, but I kind of doubt it. Not my area of strength. I seem to be good at being really suspicious and becoming the focus of bandwagons, which on the upside should keep me alive during the Night.

[Caranlondien]

Dancing Spawn:

#31: laments Farael; suggests that dreamers leave hints through well-reasoned arguments, so that once a dreamer dies, we can easily tell whom they dreamed of.

My thoughts: I think that the merit of Spawn’s suggestion here depends on the answer to this question: When a dreamer dies, do we find out that they were a dreamer?
In the post after Spawn’s, Nogrod answers that question: No. Since Farael hasn’t contradicted this, I’m assuming that it’s true; When a dreamer dies, we don’t find out that they were a dreamer.

#34: acknowleges Nogrod’s reply; decides to comment on other villagers’ behaviors; points out Diamond for making many in-character posts with little substance; says Roa makes her uneasy because of her “subtle way of excusing random voting”, wonders why Roa took the time to answer Jenny’s in-character accusation; thinks Findeasea’s behavior odd, but excuses her for now as a newbie; thinks Sleepy Ranger isn’t taking the game very seriously.

My thoughts: Her attack on Roa is, as Nogrod has said, somewhat odd. I’m not sure what I think about Roa (that’s a whole other analysis), but as for Spawn, her reasoning isn’t up to par. Jenny made a tongue-in-cheek accusation, and Roa made a tongue-in-cheek response.

#44: votes for Roa

My thoughts: I don't find her dream suggestion that odd, as it could have resulted from the ambiguity concerning dead dreamers. Her attack on Roa does seem odd. But it was Day 1, and lots of people were acting strange. I'll reserve judgment on Spawn until seeing her behavior today.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

*hurries in*

So. I only have a little while, since it's getting quite late here...but I just got in and thought that at least showing my face would be a good idea.

I should start by congratulating the Ranger on a job well done. And now, to business.

Originally Posted by Celuien

What do I think of this? Somewhat suspicious. I don’t like apologies for votes when they’re based on suspicion. That’s the reason to vote for someone…unless you know they’re innocent and you’re covering tracks. Vote also come at prime bandwagon hiding time. Will watch.

I was covering no tracks. I had no way of knowing that Glirdan was innocent. His behavior was suspicious, and enough other people thought so, too. And I had no intention of bandwagoning. That's just the way it turned out, unfortunately for us. Bad voting decisions strike again.

I realize that a lot of what I did yesterday looked suspicious. Placing a late vote that sealed an innocent's fate. Putting only one other name on the innocent list, someone whose behavior and my own were fairly similar. (which was quite astute a comparison, Diamond. I think Spawn is innocent, but I hadn't really thought there had been such similarities before.)

Now, if I was an orc, I wouldn't put a fellow Orc's name on the innocent list with only my own alongside. It's not good for the group mentality: what if something happened and I was lynched...then someone might connect us, and we'd be out two. But I am no orc. Which means (hopefully) that Spawn isn't one, either.

I'm sorry. I was going to do a larger analysis, but it's almost midnight here, and I am just not thinking straight (I'm not much of a night person). I will be back for more in the (RL) morning.

Apologies for the fact that this post is pretty much a defence of myself. I'm sure that fact will only serve to make me look more suspicious.

[Caranlondien]

Actually, I'm not seeing Azaelia as all that suspicious. She, like Diamond, seems to be responding earnestly to accusations. Just a first reaction, though; analysis tomorrow.

Like Azaelia, my RL time is approaching midnight, and I'll be heading off. Like I said, I plan to do more analysis tomorrow, though. In the meantime, good luck, my fellow villagers, in your orc-finding endeavors!

[JennyHallu]

As I hinted at in my analysis, I find Jenny's posts suspicious, in that her first two seem to contradict each other:
Quote:
#13 Mostly all in character, but talks about having thought about the Shaman dreams and says she agrees with Celuien.

#29 Says she’ll be in and out. Says to quit obsessing over the dreams and agreeing with each other, says to focus on finding and Orc.

In her first posts she talks about the dreams and agrees with someone, in her second post chastises everyone else for doing that same thing as she has done.

In her very next posts she levels accusations, which seems to me hasty for a third post. Very quick to form suspicions and make judgments, and is slightly hypocritical. I am not sure how suspicious to find her though, since part of my suspicion stems from annoyance with the way she is quick to condemn people for not playing the game the way she thinks they should. This isn't necessarily wolfish, it could just be Jennyish. I'll withold making a desicion until I can track more.

I think this deserves an answer, and I'm going to see if I can explain this perceived contradiction, although it almost feels like you're twisting what I've actually said to fit a predetermined idea of me. Post 13 was made, as you can see, 2 hours into the day. It was my first post, and I did mention the dreams. A mention of this new wrinkle in seerism isn't what I protested in post 27. (I assume you meant 27, not 29.) Post 27 was made the next day for me, RL, after I'd slept, and it felt odd to me that in all that time I slept, no one had gotten past the whole dream thing, despite the fact that Nogrod aside, no one had really brought up a new or even different opinion. As for it being only my second post, I have said many times, both here and in discussion, that this is a pressing time of year for people in my line of work. Much prophetizing must be done around Easter, and I'm busy. When I voted for you for lack of substance, Diamond, I did not mean that you'd posted less, I meant that you'd posted less of substance. While you have remedied that today, I still find you pretty suspicious. How else can I vote than by noticing people acting in ways I would not?

I'm off to bed, I think. It's midnight and I have to prove the world is ending in the morning (i.e. do my taxes)

[Diamond18]

I've been meaning to ask a question, but keep forgetting: Nogrod, what's with the Roman Numerals beside people's names in the vote counts you give? To what do they pertain? I can't figure it out.

[Roa_Aoife]

I've been meaning to ask a question, but keep forgetting: Nogrod, what's with the Roman Numerals beside people's names in the vote counts you give? To what do they pertain? I can't figure it out.

I believe that's the order the votes came in. As in

Suspect 3 - (Voter I {First vote of the day} Voter IV {Fourth vote of the Day} Voter VII {Seventh vote of the Day}

And with that, I have to check out for the night (It's past 1am here.) Hope to see more out there when I get back.

[Grendelien]

First off, I'd like to congratulate the Ranger on a job well done! This is very good news for our village!
[Just as a prewarning, a piece of something or other is stuck under my spacebar, so I apologize in advance if some joined words happen to pass by my superb (ahem) editing skills]

Secondly, I must censure myself for my poor voting grounds. I was intially suspicious of Celuien, and I did question Caranlondien's innocence, but these are terrible reasons to vote for a different (and innocent) person. I should have voted based on my own suspicion of the person, not because I thought those who voted for another were suspicious.

Though I was suspicious (I need to find a synonym for this word) early on, at this point, I can find little evidence, other than my normal paranoia, that Caranlondien is a wereorc. Her posts seem reasonable (gah, more paranoia rising to the surface) and unhasty. If we later discover that Spawn is innocent, this may be some ilk of indication that she is a wereorc...but at this point, everyone is making claims, so I cannot find evidence to prove her guilty.

I am still not convinced that Diamond is innocent, for she seems quick to attack.

My worries about Celuien and Nogrod arose because, despite how Diamond phrased it,...

Originally Posted by Diamond18

Nogrod posts the most of any player, and this is usual for him. He's the first to make suggestions and form theories about how to use the Shaman role.

...I was afraid this normal behavior may be a cover-up. My nature automatically wants to believe the words of leader-like people, so I was rebelling against my instinct, in a sense, by trying to make myself realize that wolves, too, can act normally as a cover-up. This is no reason to believe right off that Nogrod or Celuien are definitely wolves, or are definitely innocent. I just mean to point out that people who post a lot and act normally (or suspiciously), and people who post very little and act suspiciously (or normally) have equal likelihoods of being wolves.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

As it is weekend, I don't have much time to be online, and I'd rather use that time analysing other villagers than defending myself, but since so many of you is now finding me slightly suspicious, I think it's fair to say something about my behaviour yesterday.

Well, Nogrod, I saw that you might be making grounds for a case against me in your post #118 when you started twisting my words.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Spawn #35: Suspecting Diamond for chatting to avoid “under radar” suspicions. Roa about excusing random voting and taking time to answer Jenny’s joke accusation. Findëasëa, for posting only once – then retreating with first-timer issue. Sleepy, for not being serious although saying he is.

In my post #34, I said that we have to start the analyses from something, so I listed things that "had caught my attention". I did not suspect Findëasëa for posting only once. I pointed out that she hadn't posted her own personal views at all. Also, I didn't suspect Sleepy for "not being serious although saying he is". Sleepy did not say that he is serious, he said that Wereorc hunting is serious business. I mentioned that he didn't seem to be taking it very seriously.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Spawn #45 Just votes boldly for Roa, with no further reason given...

Heh, those three dots just give away your attitude towards me. Trying to start a Spawn bandwagon, eh? I said that I needed to vote immediately, so I didn't have time to analyse anything new. Since Roa seemed the most suspicious to me, I voted for her.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't claim to have a "case" against Spawn, but would really like to hear Spawn's answers to these questions... (eg. artificial suspicions on Roa + vote with nothing more + asking villagers to play against our own best)

If that's not a case, I don't know what is. I'm sorry if this looks like a knee jerk reaction, but I can't help wondering if you are an orc trying to make flawed accusatons against me hoping that other villagers will buy them, and once I'm found innocent, you can excuse yourself and say that you didn't actually even make a case against me.

I stand behind what I've said earlier. It was my mistake to believe that we would find out if someone had got a dream or not, but that's all. If it looks like "orc-propaganda", then you probably have to vote for me, but I will not defend myself anymore toDay (unless other villagers demand me to answer something).

Hmph, great. I have to go now, but I'll be back later with thoughts about other villagers.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

It was my mistake to believe that we would find out if someone had got a dream or not, but that's all.

I am quite ready and willing to tone down my suspicion on this part, as I have seen some other villagers thinking the same way. So that might be a misunderstanding, and thence understandable.

But that Roa-case I still wonder, as I can see nothing suspicious in her posts you got yourself attacking against. It honestly looked like trying to make mountain out of a molehill anyways. Maybe that is "the first day" etc., but I'm not sure, whether we should excuse everything by just saying, it's the first day -stuff.

But as one of Spawn's suspicions concerned the random-voting case, I would like to just make a distinction here. For I think there are basically two kinds of "random-voting".

Firstly, you may find yourself in a situation, where you have to vote, and you have nothing to go on with: no theories, no arguments, no reasoned suspicions etc. Then you may vote by hunch: just thinking who feels the worst, or whom your intuition tells you gives out the foulest impression. That's something you may be forced to do, and I myself accept it as a last resort.

Secondly, you may come up with a kind of "technically random" vote. Like using a random generator, or telling you are voting for the seventh people on the list of villagers (or two names under your own) etc. That I think as nasty way of playing. As it is easter-time, I could say, that that is like washing your hands from your vote of guilt... That way you are not answerable of your vote. And that's something suiting the wolves (orcs) just fine - and remember, that person may fool us by stating her/his randomness. That's even more wolvish.

When you give reasons for your votes, or suspicions, they can be publicly tested and valued, but all random-stuff stays outside the discussion forum - and therefore is highly suspicios.

EDIT: PS. My suspicions of Spawn are a prime example of what I meant with this public assessment: as I stated the reasons why I suspected her, she and others could have their say with shared arguments. And because of these comments, I have already declared coming down with part of my suspicions - as we have found a source for that misunderstanding together. This is the way, I think, we should play. Only three orcs around: we others are at the same side!

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Legolas in spandex

I guess she is a bit peculiar. I posted. Dunno if I'm too late.

Definitely not too late! About 11 hours remain now...

Good to see you here!

On to other matters...


Azaelia:

Now, if I was an orc, I wouldn't put a fellow Orc's name on the innocent list with only my own alongside. It's not good for the group mentality: what if something happened and I was lynched...then someone might connect us, and we'd be out two. But I am no orc. Which means (hopefully) that Spawn isn't one, either.

True. It would make more sense for an orc to make an "innocent" pair with an innocent, though (knowing this) I wouldn't put it past a bold orc to point out a second member of the pack on an innocent list. Bluff and double bluff.

Actually, your being innocent doesn't mean that Spawn is or isn't. I've been throughly fooled by many a clever *coughSaucepanEomercough* wolf recently.

Your defense feels genuine, and I can believe bad luck in a guilty appearing voting position. I eagerly await the larger analysis.

*~*~*~*

I'm not sure I understand the suspicion of Spawn based on her vote for Roa yesterday. There were some odd things about Roa, though I tend not to see them as particularly serious, and Spawn did explain being short of time for further explanations at the time of her vote. I don't really suspect Spawn, though my respect for her usually excellent instincts as an innocent could be coming into play. I'll watch and review, and try to be objective.

I'm leaning more towards trusting Grendelien. Quite an interesting post...

I was going to analyse Sleepy, but I'm waiting for toDAY's posts since all I'll find from yesterday is my annoyance at late Nilpishness.

[Sleepy Ranger]

As promised I shall behave today. First things first, good guess Mr. Ranger. Keep up the good work.

Alas! I seem to have landed in a spot of real-life trouble so I'll be out most of the day but no worries since I'll spend at least an hour or two with you folk till the deadline.

Regards,
'King of Quotes' Sleepy Ranger

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Grendelien

Secondly, I must censure myself for my poor voting grounds. I was intially suspicious of Celuien, and I did question Caranlondien's innocence, but these are terrible reasons to vote for a different (and innocent) person. I should have voted based on my own suspicion of the person, not because I thought those who voted for another were suspicious.

Actually, if I may... what's the matter with being suspicious of other people's voting? Voting more than anything reveals people's true agendas.

Who a player does or does not vote for and their reasons for it can be very telling.

I am still not convinced that Diamond is innocent, for she seems quick to attack.

Exactly what do you mean by this? I attacked no one at all (seriously) the first day. My vote for Glirdan was purely a defensive act (better he die than me). How was I quick to attack? I've mostly been responding to accusations so far.

Now, in asking you why you said this I'm not saying it means you're an Orc. I realize I am generally suspicious, since various people have called me suspicious for: posting nonsense, posting analysis, being too defenseive, and being too offensive. Everyone who has accused me can't be an Orc. But I would like some more explanation from you as to this claim.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Grendelien

Secondly, I must censure myself for my poor voting grounds. I was intially suspicious of Celuien, and I did question Caranlondien's innocence, but these are terrible reasons to vote for a different (and innocent) person.

Hey, sorry, I've had a rather busy past few days, so my brain is easily confused. I don't think I understand what this sentence means. You were suspicious of Celuien and Caran, so you voted for Glirdan? I don't get it....

Originally Posted by Diamond

I realize I am generally suspicious, since various people have called me suspicious for: posting nonsense, posting analysis, being too defenseive, and being too offensive. Everyone who has accused me can't be an Orc.

I'm actually with you on this one Diamond. After going back and looking, it seems everyone is trying to find fault with you somehow.

Naria, when I do an analysis, I generally post the summary seperate from my thoughts on it, simply to provide an easy access summary for everyone with out immediately biasing everyone. (I didn't before because it was just going to be a long string of analysis. and I didn't want to get everything muddled up.) I think it's perfectly reasonable that she saved the analysis for later.

Though, speaking about later analysis, Nogrod, what are your thoughts on that whole suspicion thing you posted?

[Legolas in spandex]

If it wasn't obvious, my vote was in my last post. I think the name was Diamond .

[Roa_Aoife]

Legolas,
Why are you voting for Diamond? Can you have posts thatare more than a sentence? We need reasoned argumentments, not random statements. Try to be useful to the village.

[Nogrod]

Just popping in shortly. Will be back nearer the end of the day: bad day for gaming...

But I'm afraid we are quite in the dark still about any good suspects. The more confusion, the better it is for the orcs.

As I don't see any real "orcish" things around, I will have to look at something different. What came to my mind, was seeing if there was anything that was in some way odd, or ununderstandable. I guess we have at least two such incidents.

Spawn's attack on Roa I have already talked. Maybe I just add the following: the orcs know, who the innocents are. Now a player like Roa would be very good asset to our village, were she innocent. So the orcs might want to get her out of the way by lynching also. But on the other hand, it would be quite daring tactics from the orc to go so bluntly against someone with zero-grounds (well, almost zero), as it will arouse suspicion. Added to this: she went to great lengths suspecting Roa for mildly favouring random voting, but hardly mentioned Sleepy's bold announcement to vote randomly? So: Spawn's posting confuses me.

Another case is Celuien's declaration of my innocence. I myself know, that it is true, but still I wonder why she did it. If I have gathered it right, she seems to be an experienced and thoughtful player, so she surely isn't the shaman announcing her dream of me: she would not have acted so clumsily (the only suspicion on me, ungrounded as one could be, was Jenny's joke - at least I took it as a joke, as we have a history of mutual distrust in games before this one). But could she be a shaman impersonator? What would she gain with that? Or siding with an innocent so as to make that innocent (me) trust her? Or just announcing her trust on my innocence (why?)? Celuien's post confuses me.

I hope there will be more discussion while I'm gone. I'll just throw another idea to be considered. As we are reaching the end of day2 with no good suspicions (those above are not "well grounded suspicions", just something I can't quite make out myself) to vote along with, then we should think about other tactics. Spreading the vote again would be frustrating, but a possible way to go.

But in that case, should we start picking on those, who really post minimally or not at all? I'm afraid of losing useful and well playing villagers in a situation, where we don't really have a good cause over anyone... There would the advantage in this plan, that were there orcs using the "under radar"-tactics, they could be forced out into the open by this kind of a threat?

And anyway: non-posters will be all the more dangerous and annoying, the longer we play...

EDIT: X-posted with a couple of last messages...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Though, speaking about later analysis, Nogrod, what are your thoughts on that whole suspicion thing you posted?

Sorry. To which "whole suspicion thing" do you refer here? I didn't quite get it...

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Another case is Celuien's declaration of my innocence. I myself know, that it is true, but still I wonder why she did it. If I have gathered it right, she seems to be an experienced and thoughtful player, so she surely isn't the shaman announcing her dream of me: she would not have acted so clumsily (the only suspicion on me, ungrounded as one could be, was Jenny's joke - at least I took it as a joke, as we have a history of mutual distrust in games before this one). But could she be a shaman impersonator? What would she gain with that? Or siding with an innocent so as to make that innocent (me) trust her? Or just announcing her trust on my innocence (why?)? Celuien's post confuses me.

Well, if you want to know, I said it because I believed it. And actually, I did so against my own better judgment since I almost always get called a werecreature for defending someone. Usually by the person I'm defending.

I didn't read Jenny's accusation as a joke, but I was unaware of the history between you.

You're right, I would have nothing to gain by impersonating the Shaman. I didn't, and I'm not. Read that as you will. But if I'm vaguely Shaman like, better me as a nighttime target than someone else.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But in that case, should we start picking on those, who really post minimally or not at all? I'm afraid of losing useful and well playing villagers in a situation, where we don't really have a good cause over anyone... There would the advantage in this plan, that were there orcs using the "under radar"-tactics, they could be forced out into the open by this kind of a threat?

And anyway: non-posters will be all the more dangerous and annoying, the longer we play...

I agree, and have been known to act on similar plans, although I'm hesitant to do so since summarily lynching under the radar types tends to yield more dead innocents than wolves/orcs in my experience.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

To which "whole suspicion thing" do you refer here?

Right, I need yo be more specific. This whole suspicion thing.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Grendelien

I can find little evidence, other than my normal paranoia, that Caranlondien is a wereorc. Her posts seem reasonable (gah, more paranoia rising to the surface) and unhasty. If we later discover that Spawn is innocent, this may be some ilk of indication that she is a wereorc...but at this point, everyone is making claims, so I cannot find evidence to prove her guilty.

Why would finding Spawn to be innocent point to me being a wereorc? After analyzing her, I decided she didn't seem quite so suspicious as Nogrod was making her out to be, and I wanted to hear from her.

Nogrod makes good points, but he also makes me uneasy. Are you suggesting that without well-founded suspicions to go on, we should lynch the quiet people? I can see some of the appeal. It's true, what you said, that quiet people get more and more dangerous as the game goes on. But that's also the sort of plan a bunch of loud orcs would want.

Now, I think I'll analyze Roa and Nogrod, both of whom have seemed helpful so far, and thus whom I am afraid I might overlook.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Legolas, in order to vote, you have to put the name in a seperate line, bold it, and precede it by two pluses.

Example: (NOTE THIS IS NOT MY VOTE)

++Diamond

Why are you voting for Diamond? Can you have posts thatare more than a sentence? We need reasoned argumentments, not random statements. Try to be useful to the village.

Roa, please edit out your comment to avoid confusion.

Legolas, I apologise. Most of the people here have either played on another Werewolf game or watched another one developing. I, being both busy and lazy, decided not to post the complete set of rules but perhaps I should have. In order to vote, you should do it, as Roa said, in a separate line, bold the name and precede it by two pluses, such as this

++SaucepanMan

Roa, I'm still thinking whether or not letting you use some other player's name is "fairplay" as it might be hinting at something. I'll let it go this time, but PLEASE, EVERYONE..... I APPRECIATE YOUR HELP, BUT LET ME DO THE MODDING.

Any questions or any heads-up can be dealt with via PM, but to ensure a fair and fun game I'll mod and you guys play.

[Roa_Aoife]

Sorry, Farael. The only reason I used Diamond's name is because that's who LiS said she wanted to vote for. I'll stop doing your job now.

[Naria]

I think it's perfectly reasonable that she saved the analysis for later

.

Roa, sure it is perfectly reasonable. At the time, however I had no reason to think that she was going to "save" her analyses till later on. There was no mention in her player-by-player post that she had intentions in doing so. Alas, I am not a mind reader and did not know that she had these intentions. However, when Diamond did do her thoughts it became alot more helpful. As I am not an analytical person myself; I do rely on people's thoughts on each matter. That is where I am able to weed out the suspicious from non-suspicious people.


That being said these are the people as of now that I find suspicious.

Caran-I don't really know how to explain it, she seems to be not playing the same way that she normally does(her "weeding" out techniques and fairly knowledgeable) Maybe her brother isn't helping her out as much with this game , but I can't be sure if that is the case or she's an Orc trying to figure things out.

Spawn-Mostly from the analyses done on her and Nogrod's points about her. However, this probably isn't the best thing to do either. But I have to trust someone and it happens to be him(for now).

Sleepy-Yes, he was being goofy the first Day. I just don't like the way that he has chosen to play in this game so far. I know that he can be a better contributor than he has been. It just make me uneasy, knowing that someone can and has played better and he isn't(so far).

So, this is it for toDay. I will have to vote for one of these three and fairly soon(in the next hour or so). I have family that has come in from another province and I will be away from my computer until tomorrow sometime.

[Celuien]

Probable innocent:
Caranlondien
Nogrod
Diamond
Dancing Spawn

I want to include the following as innocents, but don't have have enough to convince me to move them up yet:
Grendelien
JennyHallu
Kitanna


Possibly suspicious, but unsure:
Zali
Roa_Aoife

Really, really don't know:
Naria
Sleepy
Legolas in spandex
Findëasëa

And I know I'm...ordinary.

I'm either going to have to vote in the next 1.5 hours or very close (possibly pushing) the deadline. And ugh, I'm not sure what to do. I'm used to figuring out wolves based on their kill, but the save (as grateful as I am for it since it bought us at least one extra day to debate) has thrown me off.

[JennyHallu]

Um...just dropping in...must go cook--I mean prophecy doom to my vegetables.

But: felt this needed to be said.

Nogrod, our mutually suspicious track record may not be at an end: I did not mean my accusation of you as a joke. And I'm growing more suspicious of you. Spawn really looks innocent to me, and apparently to most of the other villagers as well. And even if she isn't, she is too helpful a villager to risk losing this early, especially with the jump we have on the wolves--I mean orcs.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I think there are basically two kinds of "random-voting".

Firstly, you may find yourself in a situation, where you have to vote, and you have nothing to go on with: no theories, no arguments, no reasoned suspicions etc. Then you may vote by hunch: just thinking who feels the worst, or whom your intuition tells you gives out the foulest impression. That's something you may be forced to do, and I myself accept it as a last resort.

Ah, but then it's not random anymore. Voting based on a gut feeling isn't random because there is something that made you feel uneasy about someone.

EDIT: PS. My suspicions of Spawn are a prime example of what I meant with this public assessment: as I stated the reasons why I suspected her, she and others could have their say with shared arguments. And because of these comments, I have already declared coming down with part of my suspicions - as we have found a source for that misunderstanding together. This is the way, I think, we should play. Only three orcs around: we others are at the same side!

That's nice, but generally if one is innocent I don't think they should rely too much on other people's opinions because they can't know whether they are orcs or not.


Now, I'll take a moment to say a few words about some of the quieter inhabitants of this village.

- Azaelia. First post: Says that those who get a dream shouldn't leave too obvious clues for other villagers although they should somehow indicate that they had a dream. I would have expected a bit more from her as her first post, but she said that she had to go elsewhere, so I understand that she probably didn't have time to start analysing other villagers then.

Second post: Ah, now she's being herself. Goes through the villagers and states her opinion of them. It's interesting, though, that she chose to pick only me alongside of herself as a probable innocent although there were other people, too, that she didn't seem to find very guilty (like Nogrod).

Third post: Wants to give Diamond the benefit of doubt and says that Glirdan and Sleepy look equally suspicious. Votes for Glirdan because of his random vote. Fourth post: Defends her earlier actions. Says that as an orc she wouldn't have named her fellow orc as a second innocent with herself which means that Spawn isn't an orc (interesting logics there ).

Something in Azaelia doesn't feel quite normal although her posts are generally well reasoned and everything. I'll keep an eye on her.

- Findëasëa. First post: Didn't express her own thoughts at all, and said very little about anything. Second post: Votes for Glirdan because "his posts had very little substance. He was also quick to choose a random vote and explain away his lack of posts". I don't think Findëasëa can afford to vote someone because of insufficiently substantial posts. I need to hear more from her before making any conclusions.

- Grendelien. First post: Didn't say much. She commented the dreaming issue, though, and her conclusion was that "we should act how we see best fit, given the situation". A somewhat typical first post.

Second post: Agrees that Diamond may look bad, but says that those who seem to be helpful might actually be orcs (mentiones Nogrod and Celuien). Votes for Glirdan because she's suspicious of "some of those who voted for Diamond", and it's the only reason she has at that point.

Third post: Regrets her vote and explains her behaviour. Isn't convinced about Diamond's innocence. Says that she was suspicious of Celuien and Caranlondien, but now she can't find things that would incriminate Caran. Says that if Spawn is innocent, Caran might be an orc, though. I'd like to know where she got that idea. Just curious. I can't decide if Grendelien makes more peculiar or good posts. Worth watching, like everyone in this village actually, but maybe even more so.

- Naria. First post: Day 1 chatting, comments on the dream issue and says that those who get a dream should reveal their dream only when they think the time is right. Second post, explains her first post and says that we should drop talking about the dreams and concentrate on catching the orcs.

Third post: Apologises for not voting, says that she hasn't found anyone suspicious yet. Fourth post: Points out that Diamond's words contradict with her actions about analysing the events in the village. Hmm, I've never seen Naria this helpful. Is this a good or bad sign? In any case, keep it up.

- Kitanna. First post: Comments the dreaming issue. Second post: Gives a little summary about the day thus far with her comments in it. Third post: Goes through everyone who has received votes giving her thoughts about them. Votes for Sleepy because "the plea for life (for lack of a better phrase) on Day one, before any suspicions had been cast on him is too much for me. It would appear to be foolish for a wereorc, but nothing ever seems to be too foolish in these games". Kitanna's behaviour is helpful and she seems reasonable to me at this point.

- Legolas. The most confused novice I've seen. It's hard to tell anything about her.


Edit: Cross-posted quite a bit...

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

Actually, if I may... what's the matter with being suspicious of other people's voting? Voting more than anything reveals people's true agendas.

Who a player does or does not vote for and their reasons for it can be very telling.

Grend, I apologize, I've just realized that I misunderstood what you were saying. You regretted voting for Glirdan based on being suspicious of other people for their votes against me, rather than regretting that you were suspicious of those voters. Ah. Right. I get it now.

Well, at any rate I appreciate any vote that helps save my life.

[Kitanna]

This will probably be my only post of the day.

the reasons were pretty bad, if you look at them closer)

I don't think Spawn's reasons for suspecting Roa are bad. I wasn't convinced of Roa's guilt because of them, but it did make me go back and have a look at her. I don't see Roa as a major threat right now, but I still wouldn't call Spawn's reasons bad.
[QUOTE]why on earth would an orc lie about the person dreamt of (and get caught by that)[/QUOTE
An orc that sacrifices him/herself in the right manner can lead his/her teammates to a victory. It's not always the case, but it's a possibility.

I'm automatically suspicious of her and automatically trusting of him. So should I trust my gut on these two or realize when I'm not objective enough? I hate to go against my gut, but I hate to be irrational

Diamond said this on the subject of Nogrod and Jenny. While I'm sure most of us have this feeling at the beginning of the game. I'm just worried because if we're wrong about our gut feelings, we could all be in a lot of trouble.

If I was a Seer or a Ranger or a Hunter or whatever, then maybe I'd been in a position to help the village, but as it stands, I know nothing. I really have no purpose in this game but to stay alive and try to figure out who is who.

I find this little bit from Diamond rather unsettling. Everyone in this villager (minus the orcs) is in a position to help. We can all help with well-thought out arguements and if we try to avoid random voting at all costs. Diamond saying she cannot really help the village. It unnerves me anyone would say that and a red flag goes up in my mind. I know bringing up other games is frowned upon, but I've seen Diamond play before and she has been far from unhelpful. So, why call attention to being "unhelpful"? What possible reason can she have to say that? What are you trying to hide yourself from, Diamond?
Also she keeps saying she is an ordo, but the more she says it the more I feel she is anything but an ordo. We all know you can say you're just an innocent villager until the cows come home, but it doesn't make it so. I had very little suspicions of Diamond until I read that post.

Now, if I was an orc, I wouldn't put a fellow Orc's name on the innocent list with only my own alongside. It's not good for the group mentality: what if something happened and I was lynched...then someone might connect us, and we'd be out two.

This little bit of Zali's gives me a little bit of suspicion. I find her relatively innocent, but that post raises a few questions. If Zali is an orc and we lynch her it would seem she's trying to say "if I was an orc I'd never be stupid enough to put my comrade's name on an innocent list." And we are thrown off and ignore Spawn (Spawn was the other name on the innocent list, right?) and it turns out Spawn was an orc all along. Now this is a pretty stupid theory because I don't think Zali would post something so careless if she were an orc. I'll be watching Zali a little closer now, but I don't find her suspicious enough to vote for.

True. It would make more sense for an orc to make an "innocent" pair with an innocent, though (knowing this) I wouldn't put it past a bold orc to point out a second member of the pack on an innocent list. Bluff and double bluff.

I see Celuien and I share the same opinion on this.

Voting more than anything reveals people's true agendas.

Not always, Diamond, not always. Voting does provide the village with a person's true agenda, but people can twist their vote to hide what they're really up to. Looking at votes is a good way to catch someone, but we have to keep in mind it is not foolproof.

Ack! So I've spent about an hour on this reading and commenting as I go, but now I have about three minutes to wrap things up and vote.

++ Diamond

I'm not overly suspicious of Diamond, but her unhelpful post really set off an alarm about her. The fact she said that really got me worried. I just can't shake it.