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04-26-2006, 11:20 PM | #121 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,648
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Well done dear Nightingale, I believe this to be a very good start indeed. Now Nilp's death was a bit of a surprise as he generally isn't lynched the first day and an even greater surprise was to find out his guilt. Now granted I thought there was a chance but I wasn't certain. What I'd like to do is gather together the collection of quotes as to what everybody said, or didn't say, about Nilp yesterday. He obviously left no traces . It will be in chronological order.
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Those who didn't mention Nilp at all are: Spawn Elu Glirdan Those who said little or nothing of any substance on the matter are: Mithalwen Nogrod Kath Cailin Those who appeared to defend him beyond saying it's traditional are: Anguirel JennyHallu Out of this list I find Cailin's comment to be the most odd but the other three weren't far behind. And out of the defenders JennyHallu seemed to be trying in earnest to save Nilp, while Anguirel was more or less pointing out that, for Nilp, the self-vote is a virtual requirement. Jenny actually voted for the runner up at a critical point In regards to the three who didn't say anything, all three didn't post much so it's more difficult to gauge why they didn't. Due to the voting I'm willing to think Valier innocent currently. Sorry this is so long but I hope that you find it helpful.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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04-26-2006, 11:51 PM | #122 |
Mischievous Candle
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Well, that was the second time ever (I think) when I've missed voting. I had troubles with computer access, sorry.
Wow, great job, Nightingale! First Duck is down, two to go, and we're still all here. YesterDays votes were: Nilp -> Nilp Ang -> Kath Mith -> spawn Lote -> Nilp Morm -> Nogrod Lalaith -> Glirdan Cailín -> Sleepy Kath -> Sleepy Sleepy -> Nilp Sauce -> Mithalwen Roa -> Glirdan Valier -> Nilp Didn't vote: Elu, Glirdan, Nogrod, spawn. Now, Nilp certainly didn't leave any clues (not even anagrams ), so I went back to analyse other Day 1's posts, and a few things caught my attention. First of them was Glirdan's notion of Valier's "slip", which I found odd, so I took a look at him. - Glirdan #1: Promises to find the ducks for Diamond and suggests that we watch Sauce and spawn. - Typical 1st post, I think. Accusations based on occupations are nothing unheard of. Oh, and by the way, I am an Orc, but a spider-loving one. - #2: Apologises for making a double post and says that he'll be gone for a while. - This phenomenon of informing about every time when one can't be in the village square (i.e. online) is funny. I don't think any of us expects everyone to be around 24 hours a Day. This doesn't concern just Glirdan, of course. - #86: Says that he'll be gone soon and thinks he'll be back for the voting. Defends himself against Sauce's accusation: "How hasty you are in trying to stoke up the village’s prejudices against us Orckind, Glirdan", and says that he won't trust Sauce before he's been proven innocent. Adds that he could violently defeat Sauce-orc. Also, he defends himself against Ang's accusation: "Glirdan the Ent is being oddly hasty. How curious. Perhaps he's no true Ent but, in fact, a foul (fowl?) webbed predator! Yet he is, after all, a fairly young Ent." - Well, Glirdan said that he'll leave from the Village square. I think it's a bit funny that he used now (almost) all the time for defending himself although to me it seems that no-one has really even accused him. As far as I can interpret Sauce and Anguirel's words, their suspicions didn't seem very strong or serious. - Points out a possible slip of Valier's and says that he'll keep an eye on her. - I had to read the quote a few times before I understood what the "slip" was. When you look at the context, that Valier didn't like Diamond's poetry, the theory seems quite far-fetched. Perhaps he's a Duck who needed to present some suspicions to one direction or another so that people couldn't say that he's not participating enough, and because he couldn't really accuse anyone for Duckery being one himself, he had to come up with something like that. Perhaps he's an innocent who's eager to help, but just hadn't much to say that moment. - In any case, I took a look at Valier's posts, too, if there had been something since sometimes the culprits just can't resist being witty that way, so... - Valier #7: Doesn't like that fact that Diamond is dead. "I can't say I cared much for her poetry, but this is unacceptable! I never wanted her dead." ~Valier - That's the thing that made Glirdan suspect her. I think it pretty much looks like a normal 1st post. - #49: Is angry because people talk so much. Says that she'll go reading the posts and will be back soon. - Another post where she just lets people know that she is around. - #52: Mentions Nogrod, Sauce, Roa and Anguirel and says that the first three are playing in normal manner and Ang usually gets killed early. - So, what does she mean by saying that Ang doesn't often have a very long life-span in games? That if he's not toast soon, he must be a Duck? - Says that analysis at this point are useless for her. Says that we should look at the quiet villagers and not lynch the loud ones. - I find it funny that this suggestion comes from someone who has made only four posts of which two were just notes that she's around. Still, it's not a completely bad idea. If there are two equally suspicious villagers, I rather let the one live who contributes more. - #54: Replies to Ang that she didn't mean with her comment that she'd be the one to kill him. - As I said above, I'd like to know what she meant. - #77: Agrees with morm that we can't know if Nilp is guilty or not if he votes for himself every time. #116: Lists the votes. Says that she's unsure whom to vote, but votes for Nilp so that she doesn't have to wonder if he's guilty or not. - When he cast her vote, Nilp had 3 votes, Sleepy had 2, and there was quite a bunch who had one vote each. He put Nilp in lead with two votes 35 minutes before the deadline when there were four people left who hadn't vote (and who in the end actually failed to vote). Based on the voting, I don't think that Valier is a Duck. I can't believe that the Ducks would sacrifice one of their own on the first Day just like that - even though I've lately seen some unbelievable voting schemes. - More later.
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Fenris Wolf
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04-26-2006, 11:59 PM | #123 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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A beautiful morning indeed!
And sorry everyone. I totally overslept yesterday (almost missed my work). I believe, I'm voting early from now on, just to be sure that I get to vote... If it is of any interest, I would probably have voted for Elu yeasterday. My top annoyances were Elu, Nilp, Glirdy and Sleepy - because of their non-informative, non-participatory playing style. I know both Sleepy and Glirdy can be useful later on and probably wouldn't have voted for them. That would leave Nilp and Elu. Nilp I have naver played with, but have heard of his style (and have no idea, whether it would get better during the game). Elu I have played once with, and he was almost the same the entire game through. Anyhow, had I woken early enough to vote, it still wouldn't have made any difference, as Nilp was to die anyhow. ------ Thanks Morm for your analysis on Nilp! I think it might be helpful. What I think should be looked at too, are those mildly suspecting Nilp. Defending him could be more genuine than making a slight suspicion into his direction, and then being kind of backed up. So not pressing for his lynch (unwise, I suppose), but giving the appearance of suspecting him. EDIT: X-posted with Spawn
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04-27-2006, 12:13 AM | #124 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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04-27-2006, 12:16 AM | #125 | |
Byronic Brand
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: The 1590s
Posts: 2,778
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You meaner beauties of the night,
That poorly satisfy our eyes More by your number than your light; You common people of the skies, What are you when the sun shall rise? You curious chanters of the wood, That warble forth Dame Nature's lays, Thinking your voices understood By your weak accents; what's your praise When Philomel her voice shall raise? Or his voice, of course. Well done Nightingale! Quote:
I think Valier would be, in principle, quite capable of such a scheme and should not be considered a certain innocent. However, she is not one of my major suspects. They remain fairly consistent...more on that anon...
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Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso |
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04-27-2006, 12:33 AM | #126 |
Mischievous Candle
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I see my last post crossed with Morm. Nice summary, although I analysed Mith's posts and I don't know if her stance on Nilp's vote was of as little substance as in your opinion. However, it takes time to type, so I'll post that in a bit.
Another thing that seemed weird to me was Elu's behaviour. She seemed to be lurking around but said barely anything. - Elu Ancalime #56: Checks in. Says that she almost forgot our Village. #108: Feels obliged to vote, but says that she'd rather not to because she doesn't have time to analyze and she's surprised that there's already reasonable discussions. -- I would have been more surprised if there hadn't been any sensible talking going on. Analyzing is really time-consuming, yes, but with 108 replies in a thread, wouldn't it have been possible to vote based on a gut feeling then... Voting is a civic duty and privilege. A vote with any kind of a reason is better than none at all. Although I guess I should hush up since I failed to vote myself. -- #110: Thanks Valier and Roa for pointing out that she's visible. -- 23 minutes after her previous post she comes to the thread to say this. In twenty minutes couldn't she form any kind of an opinion of the events of the Day? On Day 1 Elu posted thrice, but didn't comment the discussions or the actions of her fellow villagers in any way. I hope to hear more from her. -- edit: Cross-posted with everyone since my previous post.
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Fenris Wolf
Last edited by dancing spawn of ungoliant; 04-27-2006 at 12:38 AM. Reason: A typo |
04-27-2006, 01:25 AM | #127 | |
Mischievous Candle
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Nogrod, I see your point, and Ang, I'm sorry to hear about your relatives. Of course, a bluff like that is possible. However, unlikely. By no means, Valier is not a proven innocent, but right now she isn't my top suspect either.
Now, the analysis of Mith, as I promised. - Mithalwen #19: Checks in. Says that she wouldn't automatically suspect those who raise issues and options because it's better to do that than lament the dead. Typical Day 1 chatting. "We have the added dynamic of the hawk and nightingale being in league as well" ~Mith -- That's the quote Sauce picked in his post #22 by saying that 'in league' sounds sinister although a Duck would probably choose their words more carefully. I think Mith's post looked very normal 1st post. -- #20: Statistics. Lists those who haven't spoken yet, but doesn't hold much significance to the list due to timezones etc. Hopes to be more helpful later. -- It has been only 9 hours since the sun rose and she's already making a list of people who haven't showed up, and then she says that the list doesn't mean anything. I don't see much point in this. To me it looks like something a Duck could do: they have to post something, but if they can't come up with anything reasonable to say, they have to make their presence and input clear by posting something seemingly helpful chattering... Also, what are we to see from this: "There are 7 non-ordos. So at least 2 must have posted already, statistically 4 is more likely... again that doesn't get us much further." ~Mith. -- #50: Defends herself because Roa put Mith on her suspect list saying that "she's not being her usually thoughtful self". "Give me a chance girl!!!!I did all I could in the time available. Now at least I have something to look at. And I refer you to this post ." ~Mith -- There were the exclamation marks that I commented in my post #55. More about that later. -- #58: Wonders why Cailín said so early that she won't vote for Ang or spawn. Says it might be "a hint at giftedness or a duck-trick or a bluff or nothing." -- Cailín explained that in her post #41. I don't know what made her to say that, but it's true that Ang and I have died early for a few times now. -- Says that Ang being the first one to start talking seriously speaks in his favour, but then again, she's fond of Mozart... -- I didn't quite catch that. Anyway, the message of this seems to be that Anguirel might be a Duck and he might not. -- Says that there has been a lot of people stating the obvious including herself. Says that Nilp's vote is honourable if it's his only chance to speak toDay, but she won't necessarily be so tolerant in the future. Says that Sauce isn't acting as normally. -- Slightly defends Nilp (who's a proven Duck) and says that Sauce, who incidentally wasn't as ready to let Nilp away with his self-vote as Mith (#22), isn't being himself. Interesting. -- #61: Answers spawn's remark that the use of four !-marks seems a bit snappish if someone puts her on their suspect list saying that the suspicion itself wasn't why she replied to her like that, but the reasons that Roa used annoyed her because Roa seemed to be clutching at straws. She adds that based on that remark, spawn seems to be grasping at straws, too. -- In that same post Mith said that she doesn't expect everyone to remember that she said in the admin thread that she wouldn't have much time. However, she gets annoyed when that happens... I said: "Mith, four exclamation marks if someone puts you on their suspect list? A little snappish, are we?" Later (#72) Mith says that I found her suspicious. Now, I wonder why Mith thinks that I find her suspicious because that quote of mine is the only time I talked about her on Day 1. It certainly doesn't seem like an accusation to me, but she took it as one. What is the reason? Is it that she knows that there would be reasons to accuse her rightly for Duckery and therefore is so swift to react? The last time I saw Mith this snappy, she had fangs.-- #64: Says that she's tired and she'll go home if no-one's talking. Asks if anyone has anything to say before she votes. #72: Disregards all the silent people ie. Nilp, Lote, Elu, Sleepy, Jenny and Glirdan. Says that Lalaith and Cailín are being sensible, and Valier, morm and Nogrod seem like themselves, too. Says that Ang is not worrying her, but he might still be a Duck. -- Already the second time when she says that Ang might be a Duck or not. As revealing as it is, I wonder if there's some specific reason to say so instead of putting him into the 'sensible' or 'acting as usual' category. -- Says that Sauce and spawn are creeping her out since both of them would have rather hunted the Ducks than talked about Owl strategies and both found her suspicious for insufficient reasons. -- As I said earlier, I think it's odd that she thinks we both find her suspicious based on the remarks we did. Sauce said that Mith could be a Duck or not. I explained my comment above. Gives a rather nervous impression of her. -- Forgives Roa because she suspected Sauce as well. -- That must be a good reason. I just don't get it, but never mind. -- #74: Votes for spawn based on her post #12. Says that if someone has read the rules and is able to comment the Goose issue, they should know that the Ducks can't PM during Day. Therefore she must be a Duck. -- Maybe it's easy to know if you're a Duck yourself, Mithduckwen. The rules said that during Night the Ducks choose one to kill. There was no mention concerning their Daytime activities, so I wanted to know if they can plot under our noses in bright daylight, too (since that has been the case in some previous villages). "And is that really the biggest problem? Surely when someone who has been acting like a duck, turns out not to be a duck when they die, we can probably assume that the goose is dead?"~Mith -- That makes absolutely no sense at all. Logically, we lynch people who act duckishly. According to you, if we lynch two innocents, both of them are Geese. And yes, I'm more worried about not knowing how many enemies there are left than not knowing if the Owl is still among us. Now you might say that I'm suspicious of Mith. Quote:
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Fenris Wolf
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04-27-2006, 02:22 AM | #128 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Fine work, Spawn! I'm beginning to understand, why people want to see your analysis - and why some creatures would not like to see them...
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2) Well, at least in the game I was with him, he was about the way he was yesterday. And he was a surviving wolf as well - so very nasty tactics...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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04-27-2006, 03:58 AM | #129 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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Well done, Nightingale! This is good news.
I was absolutely shocked when we found out Nilp was an evil quack-duck yesterDay - I had not expected him to be anything but an ordinary villager. I especially think this makes our resident newbie Lote22 look trustworthy, and possibly Valier and Sleepy to a lesser extent (though Sleepy Duck might have voted for his fellow to save himself either way and Valier is - as mentioned by Ang - quite capable of playing a clever game). However, for now they are off my list. Mormegil, your Nilp analysis is most helpful and I think that for the moment it is the most solid evidence we have. I also agree that yesterday's proceedings don't make me look so good, but there are many of us who traditionally just ignore Nilp on Day 1 to avoid much frustration and puzzlement. I have little time right now, so I cannot make any solid cases, but there was one person who stood out to me in regards to Nilp, when I reread Day one's conversation. That person was Roa_Aoife. She expressed some annoyance with Nilp in a few posts and this quote I found especially noteworthy: Quote:
On a final note, I am most suspicious of those who mentioned Nilp barely or not at all, even though I am one of them myself. |
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04-27-2006, 04:09 AM | #130 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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Adding to my previous post before I leave: wonderful analysis, Spawn. Especially your summary of Mith's posts got me thinking - I shall look at her posts myself when I am back fom class.
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04-27-2006, 06:02 AM | #131 |
Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,458
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Ok
I am here. On schedule. No doubt this is suspicious.
There is a difference between irritable and jumpy. Anyone who knows me , knows I am irritable. Some people I find particularly irritating. People for example who are puerile enough to think that counting punctuation marks is evidence whereas statistics are not. BTW Kath I am an accountant in real life - numbers are what I do. Even when I was more happily employed as a literature studentI would do a prosodic analysis of a poem to get my brain in gear before I tackled the substance. It is a habit, helpful if only to me. Since English is one of the few things I feel I am good at, I also find it irritable when holes are picked in it. When by what I now regard to be inevitably imminent death, I am proved innocent, please remember how much time was wasted by such trivia and act accordingly. These have not been serious attempts to find the ducks. The duck was lynched helped by the blissful and refreshing innocence of Lote who is surely innocent. Sometimes I think too many of us have played too much. While we are on the subject of English, I think Diamond's instructions were admirably clear. I still think it was a reasonable basis for a first day vote. Roa I am finding irritating for her hypocrisy. In post 25 she says " I have moved Nogrod and SaucepanMan to the top of my list along with Mith". Then she comes back and says "I never said it was a high suspicion. I was just throwing things out, trying to get a bite. You bit quite well, I might add. I understand your current issues, so I'll let it go. Also, having worked with in wolfish behavior, I doubt you would be this jumpy if you really were a Duck. I'll let you slide today, but your look at Spawn seemed to be grasping at straws." This is interesting on several levels. Firstly, surely top three of 16 is high in anyone's language. Especially on such slender reasoning. I really think I had been as helpful as I could be in a lunch time with not much more than the routine grief and characterisation posts to go on. 4 exclamation marks was genuine astonishment. Then she parrots my use of clutching at straws and I think Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant's use of jumpy. Since I know she is completely wrong, she is my top suspect now. The Saucepan Man wasnts to know why I changed my mind about him. Well I thought laterally and decided "to hang fire". Others might want to do the same. Having read through again yesterday I have decided maybe he is "not so green as cabbage looking", as my mother would have said. Now that really is a bit of English that you might find needs explaining. I am going to have to go back to work v. soon. Try and open your minds - unless you are bird brained !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Might as well give someone something to do Beat that Orc boy
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Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace Last edited by Mithalwen; 04-27-2006 at 10:53 AM. Reason: two typos -feel (fell) and is (si) formatting |
04-27-2006, 06:35 AM | #132 |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
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Yes, well done, Sir or Madame Nightingale. Good save.
So Nilp turned out to be guilty after all. He left so little trace, I wonder what can be learnt from those who voted for him. Valier, Sleepy and Lote: I put them together because they all voted for Nilp the Duck. Of the three, I am definitely of the opinion that Lote is innocent. As for Valier, I’m interested in this betraying Duck theory - it had already occurred to me and now we're told there was a precendent. Sleepy too, voting in “self-preservation”…hmm. But I think it would be rather odd if both Ducks voted for their fellow. As for the rest of the villagers, as Spawn is doing close textual analysis, I’ll stick to general impressions. Mithalwen: yes, she’s being defensive, but that can be her way. Still, somewhat suspicious. Oh and pease fix those exclamations Mith, they've played havoc with the board! Spawn: She seems helpful as ever, but yet…I’m just not feeling as comfortable with her as I often do. There's a certain, uncharacteristic lack of incisiveness... SaucepanMan: he’s just making too much damn sense. I’m always scared of Saucie on principle, I’ve seen what he’s capable of. Cailin: I find myself in agreement with her about a lot of things, so I am currently inclined to trust her. Anguirel: He has been known to get a bit wacky, but seems quite to be playing it quite straight this time. Seems helpful. Jenny: again, seems helpful. The defence of Nilp was perhaps a little OTT, I agree with Spawn there. Mormegil: not as bloodthirsty as he sometimes is, and that Nilp analysis was very helpful. There is still a whiff of goosishness about him though, lingering from Day One. Kath: that somewhat pointless rowing with Nogrod on Day One was rather distracting and therefore suspicious. But as she wasn’t well at the time, I’ll let it pass, she’s otherwise been helpful. Nogrod, Roa: all that bickering on Day one was very distracting, and makes me suspicious. Both villagers have a reputation for being loudmouths, of course. I am I think more suspicious of Roa. She is my chief suspect at the moment. Elu, Glirdan: both have been unhelpful so far. As I said yesterday, Glirdan’s accusations seem too spurious and therefore suspicious. I did think Elu was being rather too careless for a duck, but now Nogrod says he’s pulled that trick before, so I don’t know what to think.
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Out went the candle, and we were left darkling |
04-27-2006, 07:18 AM | #133 | |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,648
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I realize that if she turns out to be guilty this puts me in a bad light but I have to say something.
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Now there are other things that make Mith look moderately guilty but I don't hold with punctuations being a key indicator.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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04-27-2006, 08:01 AM | #134 |
Byronic Brand
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: The 1590s
Posts: 2,778
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Oh dear. This day seems to be on the brink of sliding into Mith/Spawn duel to an even more serious extent than yesterday's Roa/Nogrod duel. That was a conflict of issues, but this is a tad more ad feminem-could be bitter.
Mith, do you have strong suspicions of anyone besides Spawn? It must be said that she's currently beating you on breadth of coverage. I do not wish morm to escape scrutiny by virtue of his admittedly diligent surveyance of all our opinions on Nilp. Often werecreatures make sure they are the first to reach the evidence so that those too idle to view it directly will see it through were-tinted spectacles. It is true to say that it's fascinating how many independent quarters Mith has drawn suspicion from. Saucie and Roa both felt her lightweight (though admittedly before waiting long to judge her-besides I trust neither of them). Kath felt her statistical approach an uncharacteristic angle, and even with Mith's accountancy in the picture I must admit that was in my mind too. Now dancing spawn has singled her out above other targets. Mith's performance yesterday was hardly illuminating, but Lady Spawnowen's was still less so; as she pointed out herself, she failed to vote. However, she has produced a forceful case today that should be considered, and that struck many a reluctant chord in my brain. Above either Spawn or Mith today in my mind are Roa and morm, both of whom I have accused countless times. Yesterday, bar post #46, I called morm a Goose. I now say Boo to that (vide Mith's signature) and declare him a full-feathered duck. He fudged on Nilp yesterday, but did not include himself on the list of negligible Nilp-watchers, or any list at all. As it was not a suspicion ladder per se this is a rather evasive move. He's also been, let's face it, pretty unhelpful with a slightly reasoned vote, until this morning, when the aid he brought was...well, similar in quality to Mith's statistics yesterday morning. A useful but scarcely enlightening task performed, that's all. EDIT: The alleged signature of Mith's regarding Booing I referenced is either no more or belonged to someone else all the time. Sorry for confusion caused...
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Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso Last edited by Anguirel; 04-27-2006 at 08:07 AM. |
04-27-2006, 08:05 AM | #135 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it.
Posts: 1,696
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Not much time- I have a final in an hour. Several things I'd like to say:
Yay, Nightingale! Nice job. Hopefully you can live long enough to tell us who was innocent. About Nilp- I'm glad we caught a Duck, and all, but where was the fun in that? There was no chase, no excitement, nothing! It was little more than a fluke! I got into this game for the fun of it, and he just sucked it all out. Honestly, if that's the way you're going to play, then don't play. I DESPISE this style, and I think that anyone who uses it should just get out of the game (ie, Nilp, Elu, Gil-galad, etc). Time constraints are one thing, but this is just rediculous. If you have so little time, don't sign up. It isn't fair, it isn't fun, and it isn't "funny." I wasn't joking when I said I advocate banning you from the game. If you aren't going to play, then you shouldn't be allowed to waste space in the thread. [/rant] Mith, you're mis-using the word "hypocritical." The word you're looking for is "contradictory," which my posts were not. My suspicion of you three was slightly above everyone else. How could it be more, at that stage of the day? Naturally, with you're continued over-reaction, I'm putting you a bit higher. Also, I did intentionally use your phrase, "grasping at straws," as a means of show your own hypocracy. Why so quick to accuse those who have only a mild suspicion of you? Paranoid that one might be the Owl and has dreamed of you? And what's with all the mellowdrama? You don't expect to survive the day? Why not? You were, at best, only mildly suspcious to the majority. Right now I am continuing my suspicion of Glirdan, but I want to see more of him today. I know he's capable of much more than what he's shown us. I'd also like him to explain he rediculous "answers" to the suspicions layed against him. Edit: Cross posted with Morm and Ang
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
04-27-2006, 08:22 AM | #136 | ||
Byronic Brand
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: The 1590s
Posts: 2,778
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If "hypocracy" existed, it would be something, I suppose, to do with the state of transcending ruling. ((The one I really love is hippocracy-rule by horses. Our school's supposedly most intellectual magazine-a rival of the one I help edit-once ran a vast headline of "American Hippocracy In Iraq". I saw visions of the US army forcing the helpless Iraqi citizenry to elect horses as consuls in the manner of Caligula...)) Where you are sensible is suggesting we glance as Glirdan-the struggles of the colossi shouldn't let the shrimps shelter...
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Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso Last edited by Anguirel; 04-27-2006 at 08:27 AM. Reason: Would you know it, I mispelt "struggles" |
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04-27-2006, 08:35 AM | #137 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it.
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Alright, now I really have to go before my History professor fails me for not showing up for the final.
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
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04-27-2006, 09:15 AM | #138 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Gak!
I've got a lot of catching up to do. I just skimmed through the thread and some things here and there have caught my attention. Give me some time to read through and then I'll leave my thoughts.
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04-27-2006, 09:28 AM | #139 | ||
Everlasting Whiteness
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Now, all this arguing is not in any way beneficial to us in our search for the remaining Ducks. We had a bit of luck last Night, lets not let it go to waste toDay. Roa - voting for himself is Nilp's way of playing and whether you like it or not he's been doing it for a very long time now and will most likely continue to. He does this first Day every game because he has a similar opinion to Form over Day 1's - namely that they are useless. I disagree with this, as apparently do you, but that's how he feels and that is unlikely to change. In the end it actually helped us that we had some newbies unused to this, and he got caught out. However, stressing about it now is pointless and I am a little worried that you seem to be so caught up with that, as it does take attention away from finding the Ducks. Please can we consider this argument ended, or take it up again after the game has finished, so we can get back to the important matters. Thanks go to morm for his going back and finding quotes by and about Nilp, that's a long and nasty job! Having looked at it, it was Sleepy that seemed the most odd. Quote:
Also from that, Roa is worrying me. She seems overly aggressive and inclined to take offence at everything. When talking of Nilp she says he should be killed off for his unhelpful playing style (his self-voting habit), but gives Sleepy's equally unhelpful style (random voting) the benefit of the doubt. I wonder if this is an attempt to distance herself from a fellow Duck who she felt was behaving in a way unfitting to the role. Mith is still being extremely defensive though this is actually quite normal for her. Any accusation against her is always strongly rebutted. She did reply to my questioning her about her use of statistics and fairly so, though I still believe her use of them to be odd. Ang - would you please explain why you believe morm to be the Goose. You may have done so yesterDay (and I believe you did) but I'm still not at 100% and would appreciate a quick recap.
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04-27-2006, 09:43 AM | #140 | ||
Byronic Brand
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: The 1590s
Posts: 2,778
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Alright. But actually I've now progressed to thinking morm an outright duck.
Firstly, in morm's initial post, he said something about wanting to hire protection. This seems not only selfish, but distinctly odd, seeing as protection does exist in this game, though it's certainly not for hire... Then there came the moment when morm introduced his "What a Goose could do" plan, effectively saying we would have to be careful and treat any Owl revelations as possible impostures. To that I replied- Quote:
For the reasons I stated, I upgraded my suspicion of morm Quote:
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Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso |
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04-27-2006, 10:00 AM | #141 |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Ha! Like I said, Nilp has only himself to blame.
Apologies to one and all for my late arrival. As I explained here in the admin thread, crow scaring can be a full-time occupation. Today, I was required to attend our Annual Scarecrow Conference and so was not able to join the village moot until now. Although it’s rather late in the Day, I will nevertheless offer up my traditional record of the preceeding Day’s votes. Spawn provided a list earlier, but I like to look at the state of the voting at the time that each vote was cast. 1. Nilp for Nilp (Nilp-1) 2. Ang for Kath (Nilp-1, Kath-1) 3. Mith for spawn (Nilp-1, Kath-1, spawn-1) 4. Lote for Nilp (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1) 5. Morm for Nogrod (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1) 6. Lalaith for Glirdan (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1) 7. Cailín for Sleepy (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-1) 8. Kath for Sleepy (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-2) 9. Sleepy for Nilp (Nilp-3, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-2) 10. SpM for Mith (Nilp-3, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-2, Mith-1) 11. Roa for Glirdan (Nilp-3, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-2, Sleepy-2, Mith-1) 12. Valier for Nilp (Nilp-4, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-2, Sleepy-2, Mith-1) Did not vote: Elu, Glirdan, Nogrod, spawn. All but Elu have explained their failure to vote yesterday. Like Ang and others, I do not discount the possibility of a Duck-on-Duck vote yesterday. I doubt that Lote’s vote would fall into this category and so think her most likely innocent. But a Duckish Valier could have sacrificed a fellow Duck to gain credibility. I find it unlikely that a Duck would do this on Day 1, but it’s still a possibility. Sleepy’s vote for Nilp does not tell us much. Whether innocent or a Duck, he would most likely have voted for Nilp at that stage to save himself. Difficult to tell much from the other votes. Kath’s vote for Sleepy and Roa’s vote for Glirdan could be seen as Duckish attempts to save Nilp, but they don’t mean much on their own. I have only had a chance to briefly review today’s proceedings so far and will come back with further thoughts when I have had an opportunity to consider further. For now, I wanted to ask what I think is a pretty important question. Can the Nightingale (well done, by the way ) protect the same person two or more nights running? As far as I can see, there’s nothing about this in the game rules. My question, by the way, is directed primarily to the Diamoddess. I ask it here because, depending on the answer, there may be issues which will merit serious consideration.
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04-27-2006, 10:02 AM | #142 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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All right people. Just breathe.
I am finding this whole Nilp - is - an - evil - unsupporting - quacking - player a bit distracting. He died and paid for his crimes, his folly, his wings and his suicidal tendencies. So why bother? If you want revenge, flood his PM box. Through all this arguing it is hard for a person like me to remain analytical and sensible. Mithalwen: I do not know you well at all, of course, so I cannot say whether your irritation is really in character. Of course, I am not going to suspect you based on punctuation or anything - rather your half-hearted case against Spawn and the Nilp issue. I am far from convinced that Mith is guilty, though. Far from. Mostly because she reminds me of what I must force myself not to do when I am under fire, regardless of my role in the village. I never trust Dancing Spawn in any game -not sure why, possibly because she never trusts me - but as long as I do not have any clear evidence against her, I would not vote for her either. I find nothing really different or odd about it. Surely it is natural to want to analyse those who vote against you - if indeed you know yourself to be innocent? As for Roa, I do not understand why she finds Nilp's behaviour so upsetting unless Nilp was one of her fellow ducks. But would she then be so forward in her rants? Possibly. Loudmouths generally get away with yelling. Anguirel - I find nothing odd about Mormegil's first post, though I can see why his Goose plan would incriminate him. I am waiting to hear more from certain people: Glirdan, Sleepy, Elu and some other quiet ones. Also, where is our resident Sauce-Orc? It is still early, of course. To end in a gut-feeling way that is not helpful to anyone in particular: Anguirel might be a Goose, no? Somehow, I get that impression. Last edited by Cailín; 04-27-2006 at 10:03 AM. Reason: cross-posted with Sauce, so the Sauce Orc notion can be disregarded. |
04-27-2006, 10:07 AM | #143 | ||||
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Addressing issues...
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Heres my opinions on the people- Innocent Anguirel - I'm inclined to believe he is innocent. Lote22 - She seems innocent enough. Valier - Would a duck really have voted for Nilp? Had she voted for me instead I'm certain nobody would have seen anything wrong in that. Nogrod - Nogrod is well, Nogrod. I just can't get myself to suspect him at the moment. Not Sure Saucepan Man - I don't really know what to make of Saucey. Mormegil - Though I'm inclined to believe hes innocent as someone said, too easy to mis-trust. Cailín - Don't know what to make of her, she seems sensible enough. Roa_Aoife - Again, inclined to believe shes innocent but she can be a tricky lady. Glirdan - Waiting to see more from him. Elu Ancalime - See Glirdan. Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant - She could be dangerous and I'm not really sure what to do with her now. Lalaith - Don't see much wrong with her. Kath - I'm not sure about her, but she seems to be a trifle bit more suspicious than anyone else on this list. Ducks Mithalwen - Shes been overly defensive and the use of all those exclamation marks just annoys me. JennyHallu - She would make a very dangerous duck. Also, seems not to mind Nilpaurion because its his playing style yet says I should change mine.
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04-27-2006, 10:07 AM | #144 |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
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I need to correct the list that I posted earlier. I was working off spawn's list, which omitted JennyHallu's vote.
1. Nilp for Nilp (Nilp-1) 2. Ang for Kath (Nilp-1, Kath-1) 3. Mith for spawn (Nilp-1, Kath-1, spawn-1) 4. Lote for Nilp (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1) 5. Morm for Nogrod (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1) 6. Lalaith for Glirdan (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1) 7. Cailín for Sleepy (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-1) 8. Kath for Sleepy (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-2) 9. Sleepy for Nilp (Nilp-3, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-2) 10. SpM for Mith (Nilp-3, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-2, Mith-1) 11. Jenny for Sleepy (Nilp-3, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-3, Mith-1) 12. Roa for Glirdan (Nilp-3, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-2, Sleepy-3, Mith-1) 13. Valier for Nilp (Nilp-4, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-2, Sleepy-3, Mith-1) Did not vote: Elu, Glirdan, Nogrod, spawn. Jenny's vote too might be regarded as an attempt to save Nilp, assuming that Sleepy is innocent. Interesting that spawn omitted it from her earlier list (although I doubt a Duck would draw attention both to herself and the person she omitted like that).
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04-27-2006, 10:20 AM | #145 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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First of all. So skillful player as he seemingly is (I've only played once with him before this), from his analysis, he seems to totally forget those who have had something against Nilp! Kind of wanting us to focus on these others? There might be some Nilp-voters in yesterday's tally - case Valier comes to mind. But even more, I am worried about those, who just suspected Nilp duckishly-lightly enough to secure their backs (not voting, not straightly accusing, but still "suspecting" or "keeping an eye"...) Secondly. His point about the four people he (rigthly) called "saying little or nothing of any substance", that: Quote:
And if Ang is right with the suspicion about Morm, then I must say our Owl-talk was not in vain after all... I'll try to do some re-reading next. EDIT: X-posted with quite a few...
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04-27-2006, 10:24 AM | #146 | ||
Everlasting Whiteness
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Then you said: Quote:
Ang - thanks for that recap. I'll think over it for a bit.
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“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
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04-27-2006, 10:27 AM | #147 | |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
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Admittedly, suspicions of Goosiness may lead us to a find a Duck instead (and I can see some force in the arguments that have led Anguirel to reassess mormegil as a possible Duck). But perhaps we should just concentrate on looking for suspicious behaviour generally. Even if (on any particular Day) this doesn't lead us to find a Duck, we might (albeit unknowingly) kill the Goose instead.
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04-27-2006, 10:33 AM | #148 | |
Eidolon of a Took
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04-27-2006, 10:36 AM | #149 |
Blithe Spirit
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The Goose does not of course know any more than the rest of us who s/he is supposed to be helping, so I suppose at the moment the Goose would just concentrate on being generally difficult. At the moment I can think of a few candidates...
But I agree, I would much rather worry about Ducks. On the subject of which, I am most interested in Roa's rage...I've heard of flogging a dead horse, but kicking a dead duck... hmmm. Particularly as she seems more interested in the alleged shortcomings of the dead duck, than in finding live ones. Frustration, perhaps?
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04-27-2006, 10:38 AM | #150 |
Byronic Brand
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But accusing people of being a Goose insults their posting style and clarity and so is far more fun...as I think Cailin may just have discovered...
Of course Goose-inquisitions are pretty pointless in themselves, Saucie, but if en passant we find Goose-suspect behaviour why not out it? And as you say it could-I think has in morm's case-(don't gloat though Nogrod!) lead, have led to a ducking. Nogrod, your exposition of the weakness in morm's researches was rather clearer than mine and exceedingly helpful-I am inclined to pass you as innocent for now.
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04-27-2006, 10:39 AM | #151 | ||
Mischievous Candle
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I went back to analyse him myself. - mormegil #6 Laments his own death in the future, Day 1 chatting. - Seems typical 1st post for morm. - #30 Says that killing Ducks isn't lofty enough for his brain. Doesn't like the Owl talk much, but talks about possible Goose scenarios. Clarifies the rules (ie. we don't see the deceaseds' roles if they were the Goose or a Gifted). Says that if he were the Goose, he'd step forward and say that he's the Owl. Says that both Kath and Sauce should be lynched. - This is mostly an insightful post with the example and all, but it looks like he'd be giving advice for the Goose on how to act... - #51 Ang criticized morm's Goose post, so morm replies to it by saying: "All I did was point out something in advance to the owl so that he/she wouldn't fall for a ploy that may be employed by the goose." He also says that he understands why he looks suspicious. - Well, that's a good answer. However, his previous post might still be considered suspicious and he understands it himself, splendid. - #95 Agrees with Kath that if he were a Duck, he'd not kill the talkative people early, but wonders why he is speculating it. Says that he has some problems with net connection, so he has to vote. Wonders if killing Nilp would be an "easy way out", but says that he might be guilty. Says that killing Nogrod would slow down the speed of the discussions, but he might be guilty, too. Says that he's fairly clueless and votes for Nogrod. - Another 'if I were a baddie' scenario. Hmm, are you? One could have quite a few accusations similar to Glirdan's observation about Valier's slip, but otherwise this seems quite normal behaviour for morm. - #106 Finds Sleepy's vote for Nilp odd and it makes Sleepy suspicious. Says that Roa makes a good point about Nogrod that in last games "he's been toning down his agression. Strange, did he just decide to drop his (albeit relatively) subdued manner in the passion of his argument? Or is he just being a bold Duck?" ~Roa Morm's opinion is that Nogrod is more likely to be a bold Duck. #121 Says that Nilp's death and guilt were surprises although he had his suspicions. Collects quotes of Nilp by everyone and lists the votes for Nilp between them in chronological order. Finds Cailín's comment the oddest and mentiones that Ang and Jenny defended Nilp, and Jenny voted for someone else "at a critical point". Due to voting thinks that Valier is innocent. - I just realised that I hadn't listed Jenny's vote for Sleepy to my list of the votes. She voted between Sauce and Roa. Anyway, I wonder why morm didn't list Mith's words about Nilp; "For now I will take this [Nilp's self-vote] as an honourable route if it is the only participation possible. I don't know if he makes a habit of this but I shall not necessarily be always so lenient. Non-participation makes life so difficult for the true villagers and often plays into the hands of the "three"." ~Mith Also, morm lists a lot of quotes, but doesn't really comment them. It looks helpful, but anyone could just do a list of quotes. The lack of personal thoughts about the gathered information seems duckish since morm is very well capable of doing analyses... - #133 Says that he realises that if Mith turns out to be guilty it will look bad for him, but he defends Mith by saying that he didn't see anything unusual in Mith's snappishness. Says that he doesn't understand why we concentrate on four exclamation marks, but says that there are other things that make her look moderately guilty. - Interesting that after I've explained my post about the ! marks and posted my theory about Mith which had little to do with exclamation marks, morm brings them to the discussion again. Also, this is the second time when he says that he understands why people find him suspicious. He defends Mith, then admits that she looks somewhat suspicious, then talks about punctuations again and how they aren't a good reason. If you read my case, you are aware that I don't suspect Mith because of them. - Uh, I need a break now. I don't know what to think of this all, but I'll keep an eye on him, that's for sure. ps. Roa, I don't think that criticizing dead villagers' playing styles is very relevant right now. It's Nilp's tradition to vote himself on Day 1, like it or not. If you've read recent WW games past the first Day, I don't think you have a reason to complain. edit: Cross-posted with everyone since #145.
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04-27-2006, 10:56 AM | #152 |
Twisted Taleswapper
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity
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Wow way to go nightinggale!! I can't believe Nilp actually was a duck! I voted for him, because like I said I am never sure if this time he will be a baddie and my gut was right this time.
For all the people who think I am a cunning duck ie:Ang,Cailin etc... Thanks for the vote of confidence, but I assure you I am just a cunning villager.. I understand Roa's thoughts on Nilp I too find this type of play annoying, I know Nilp is way smarter than he plays in ww games. Well he's gone now, so lets not dwell on it. Lets keep our luck up and get another Duck. I will read through the posts and see what I can come up with. I'll Be back in a bit, with hopefully something tangible.
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04-27-2006, 11:05 AM | #153 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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And how about I say my vote for Nilp was done at random because I pulled a name out of a hat and thats what I got, does that make you happy?
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04-27-2006, 11:06 AM | #154 |
Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
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I don't want to fight anyone. I am hypersensitive, I know - it is the reason I took a long break from WW. If you attack me, I will defend myself. I want to do my best to catch the remaining ducks. Lynching me will not help you do this. You can always kill me later but I am pretty sure the Ducks will save you the trouble so you might as well consider a few other options.
I am not a duck. You really will do better to look elsewhere. I can only prove this absolutely by dying but that really won't be in your favour. We( ie the village) are in a strong position here. Don't blow it by focussing on my personality flaws. They are many but dishonesty is not one of them. Wearing my heart on my sleeve is. I cannot stay to the end. In fact I have about 2.5 hours. I have a lot of reading to do. I have wasted a lot of time defending myself which is quite exasperating.
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04-27-2006, 11:07 AM | #155 | |
Byronic Brand
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: The 1590s
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Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso |
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04-27-2006, 11:10 AM | #156 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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And tonight we can truly say, together we're invincible... Middle-Earth Football World Cup 2007 |
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04-27-2006, 11:13 AM | #157 | ||
Everlasting Whiteness
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“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
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04-27-2006, 11:17 AM | #158 | |
Byronic Brand
Join Date: Mar 2005
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Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso |
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04-27-2006, 11:17 AM | #159 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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And tonight we can truly say, together we're invincible... Middle-Earth Football World Cup 2007 |
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04-27-2006, 11:19 AM | #160 | |
Byronic Brand
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: The 1590s
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Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso |
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