WWJ V: The Broken Souls

[Anguirel]

Cack-handed, damosel, means clumsy, unsubtle.

An interesting analysis of the Ka-voters from Enca...for some reason I'd thought Roa had started the movement, not LMP. Thanks for the clarification. It's true that by the orthodox patterns of wolvery, the signs point to Jenny and Thinlomien, but who knows if a more radical tactic would serve us more reliably?

I wonder what sort of part THE Ka played in the triumvirate. Though articulate, I feel she wouldn't have risen to a commanding role. Depending on who her companions were, of course.

I am not especially worried by LMP's valiant fall. The wolves obviously slew him thinking that even if not gifted, his experience would make him a fearsome enemy. I would differ from that approach. As an innocent, he causes altogether too much controversy, usually pretty much undeserved...but old habits die hard, and I'm almost glad his puzzle has been solved.

Look well upon the analysis he left, now we now he's reliable. Alas, he wasn't as talkative as usual...

[Nogrod]

Case Naria

The "abusement"-post #100 (the quote here was preceded by quotes of mine pointing to different "hints" by Sleepy that could be associated to Naria):

Come on man, do you honestly think that Sleepy would set me up like this? I would like to think that you would give him more credit than this. I picked my occupation not Sleepy, I think he's just going along with our job descriptions at this point in the game. So, don't read too much into what Sleepy has said about me....it won't get you very far.

do you honestly think that Sleepy would set me up like this? Surely not! Could anyone of us give an honest vote on the first day? (Well one can always hope, there is a chance for that...)

I would like to think that you would give him more credit than this. Even though there is a some reason behind this, it might as well be read as pure rhetorics gag, trying to make any suspicions based on Sleepy's texts unbelievable! And we already saw, that Sleepy did provide us our first wolf-kill!

So, don't read too much into what Sleepy has said about me....it won't get you very far Am I just seeing something where there is nothing, but this could be read as a clear threat!!! Read it in that light, and you will see it...

And the "votingpost":

Wow, looks like the time is drawing near so I shall vote now. I don't agree with the way Nogrod went after all of the quiet ones so quick and early and kept that discussion going, having someone like him around would not help at all...out for blood he is!

Wow, looks like the time is drawing near so I shall vote now. And this remark is done only some ½ hours later from the earlier one!!! Wow - indeed! What a surprise to her it must have been?

I don't agree with the way Nogrod went after all of the quiet ones so quick and early and kept that discussion going We indeed had this same discussion earlier: posts 32 (Naria) and 38 (me). That seems to have not have any bearing on her accusations. Check them, and see for yourselves.

So she's ignoring the reply, and repeating the accusation that was shown illinformed or misunderstood! Just hoping, that no-one would check the thing out?

having someone like him around would not help at all... So it's not helpful to have someone around, who really tries to make the difference (I do admit, that my first day performance was not so good: I couldn't make you all to see my point, and I didn't bet on the right horse - it was just so unbelievable that the mod would bring some RL things into a game...). I would like to ask Naria, which kind of people she would see useful around? Maybe a village full of WQ's (no posts) could be nice, or Gil-Galads (one, nonsense)? To whom, might these be of assistance: to the WW's or to the villagers? If you are a villager proper and not a traitor, why do you think that people who try to elaborate over things, who try to find clues etc. are "not of any help at all"? I would find even a elaborate wolf "of even some help" (compared to this "no help at all")!!!

So what do we have here above?

Trying to play down looking at Sleepy's hints (which ½ hour later turned out to be relevant and to the point).

Threatening! (who could actually use a threat in this game, but a wolf?)

Lying / false accusations.

Pure wolf-talk (talk from the wolf's point of view).

Faltering rhetoric and questionable turns of words.

You may all think about this what you will. I will read Naria's posts quite carefully today...

There is the hint by Sleepy, which I myself admit - alongside Naria - to be quite absurdingly "too clear": there is a madman loose (Naria is pictured as mad) etc. But her actions, and the above, really makes me suspicious (being suspicious is not a proof of anything, and not even an accusation!).

But: jumpy like a wulf?

Look also at the rhetoric at Naria's post #32...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

An interesting analysis of the Ka-voters from Enca...for some reason I'd thought Roa had started the movement, not LMP. Thanks for the clarification. It's true that by the orthodox patterns of wolvery, the signs point to Jenny and Thinlomien, but who knows if a more radical tactic would serve us more reliably?

Just came to my mind, that Jenny said she cross-posted with Thinlómien. Well there is 10 minutes gap between their votes, and Jenny's is not so very long or thorough one! Everyone knows, one can write to the post, that one has x-posted.

There even isn't that edited...xxx -thing attached to the bottom of the post.

I may be seeing ghosts here, but perhaps there could be something?

My time to sleep draws near, but anyone with nothing else to do: a quick look at Jenny's posting might be worthwhile?

[Anguirel]

A chimerical accusation, Nogrod-give the poor doomsayer a break. If she deserves suspicion, it's certainly not because of quibbling over posting times. I think her a better sport than to resort to the low trick of claiming to cross-post, and expect she paused for a refreshing quart of whisky or two...or at the least a cup of tea...

But I digress. Nogrod, one wolf may have voted for you, but if two did, then I'm a methagallinarius d'or rampant on a field sable. I would advise you to broaden your scope a little beyond those who suspected you, though I accept your reaction is a natural one.

[JennyHallu]

Nogrod -- in answer to what you said concerning my X post with Lommy. This was a case of RL intruding on my fun...I was posting from work. Occasionally I need to leave my window open while I take care of some other work related thing. YesterDay at work we had a major crisis come up while I was posting--a major power outage at the hospital our company does maintenance for. Luckily we're on a separate circuit so I didn't lose my post, but I did have to drop everything and deal with the issue. A power failure at a hospital can, as I'm sure you can see, be catastrophic.

As for no "edit" note, that is because I forgot, and was doing it quickly so I could get back to work.

[JennyHallu]

As for your suspicions regarding your accusers, Nogrod, I believe that nothing can be proven regarding Valesse and Valier. They cross-posted, and both posted early enough that I do accept it as a pure reaction to your (admit it) aggressiveness.

But I think Nogrod has a point about Naria. To phrase it in more objective terms, she did not seem to lean towards any particular suspect, but waited until the last minute to make a vote that I have to see as safe: someone widely suspected, but not likely to actually be lynched.

And I feel we would be remiss if, no matter the dire situation surrounding us, we did not take the time to say:


HAPPY BIRTHDAY, VALESSE!!!!

Many happy returns!

[Anguirel]

Aye. Happy Birthday, quite.

But to return to matters more prosaic ere I go to analyse the battle of Antioch...

I disagree with you, Jenny, about the motive of our hypothetical Nogrod-voting wolf. I'm pretty sure they'd be counting on the gathering momentum to save their comrade...unsuccessfully, but at that stage they weren't to know that.

Now farewell a while...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

A chimerical accusation, Nogrod-give the poor doomsayer a break. If she deserves suspicion, it's certainly not because of quibbling over posting times.

Well, I wasn't quite accusing, at least I hope so (I said: I may be seeing ghosts ). And I agree, that would be a bad sportmanship. But as I looked at those two posts, I just couldn't help noticing the time-difference. The case is as solid as it sounds (=very unsolid indeed).

But I digress. Nogrod, one wolf may have voted for you, but if two did, then I'm a methagallinarius d'or rampant on a field sable. I would advise you to broaden your scope a little beyond those who suspected you, though I accept your reaction is a natural one.

I wouldn't believe for any more than one either! Or then we would just have very very stupid wolves around!!!

And rest assured, I will broaden my scope.

I just felt quite so frustrated, and kind of insulted, to have been spotted and bandwagoned that way at the last possible hour, that I kind of just wanted to make it clear to myself, where did these accusations stem up from, and whether there is something, that we could profit from as a village.

Also, with my quite accusatory analysis, I wish to show, as a self-defence of a kind, that I can come up with accusations too, if someone so wishes. But anyways: that's the way I like to play: not hiding in shadows, or throwing random accusations at the last minute, but going for it, trying to build cases that would really help, and for which I myself could really vote for...

As I'm heading for bed, I'll promise to come back with this case behind me. Valier's posts are so elusive, that I'm not sure, whether there is anything to point out actually. I'll probably take one look at them tomorrow, and then refocus everything up to date.

And I surely hope, there has been some more posting meanwhile to get into...

X-posted with the last three...

[Eonwe]

Just checking in. Congrats to everyone yesterday who voted for THE Ka. Well done, though I'm sure one of you is a wolf. I'm guessing someone who voted right after LMP or right near the end. The first being 'slip in my vote when it won't look bad' and the second being 'salvage what I can from the reckage'.

Other than that, I need to read through the posts and sift through the evidence left by THE Ka. I'll be back on later, hopefully with something to bring to the table.

[Nogrod]

=JENNY A power failure at a hospital can, as I'm sure you can see, be catastrophic.

I apologize! I was mis-/uninformed.

=JENNY As for your suspicions regarding your accusers, Nogrod, I believe that nothing can be proven regarding Valesse and Valier. They cross-posted, and both posted early enough that I do accept it as a pure reaction to your (admit it) aggressiveness.

I'm about to think about the same, although I'm quite distracted with Valier's elusiveness...

Concerning my aggressiveness: who needs to be afraid of a vocal player who tries to do something?

Well, surely I admit. The aggressiveness. I don't want to post one "hello, what a pity s/he died" -post a day... That's miserable gaming.

And why is everyone so scared of their lives? This is a game! No-ones' really gonna die... So play in a dull way (not enjoying it) and keep yourself alive two more days? What's the fun there?

=ANGUIREL I disagree with you, Jenny, about the motive of our hypothetical Nogrod-voting wolf. I'm pretty sure they'd be counting on the gathering momentum to save their comrade...unsuccessfully, but at that stage they weren't to know that.

Well, I kind of had that feeling too. Otherwise it truly baffles me... I mean: two out of three last votes (within the last 1½ hours), would anyhow seemed "natural": people quite not knowing what to do, and distasting my style of playing. But three is a lot! 100% of votes at the last call, when couple of votes were still waited in - and happily never came. With double lynching, I would have been a goner with those both sleepers on board, getting on board the wagon...

Detail: Valier's and Naria's votes came in after Roa had apologized, that she had been wrong, and that double lynchings were indeed the rule!!!

But I do simultaneosly think, that they couldn't be the two of them there: it would be too obvious. And again: very cunning wolves could count on just that - nobody would believe, that two of them would bandwagon with a last instant vote!

Well you never know.

First stage: you are a fool and reveal yourself

Second stage: you are wise and hide yourself

Third stage: You are very wise and reveal yourself, and then defend by saying, I'm not a fool (1st. stage)

Fourth stage: You are overtly cunning, and hide yourself, and defend yourself by saying, that you are not just some medium player who would try to hide oneself (2nd. stage)

Fifth stage: ... etc.

Good night,

and happy birthday Valesse!

PS. this is not like a birthday gift, but I'd like to mention, that I really am beginning to think, that you are the least suspicious one of the three of you...

[Nogrod]

My last add-on for now:

Jenny! I kind of accepted your explanation concerning my quite innocent notion concerning the posting times between you and Thin'lo. Even though, I wondered, why did you have to defend so overwhelmingly (well I'm the one to accuse someone about overwhelming self-defence!? ). But anyhow. The thing that caused me to put forward this one is here:

As for your suspicions regarding your accusers, Nogrod, I believe that nothing can be proven regarding Valesse and Valier. They cross-posted, and both posted early enough that I do accept it as a pure reaction to your (admit it) aggressiveness.

Why is it, that you are outright lying with this one?

(all times GMT)

Valesse posted her vote: 5:41

Valier posted 6:07

Naria 6:37

So there is 26 minutes between Valesse and Valier, and no mentioning of cross-posting!

I really was suspecting Naria before that, but now I have to admit, that her scorn over me could be from outside this game (or partly from within this one), and probably be purely personal, well, who knows? Something like that would explain her harshness etc. ("my presence being not helpful at all")

One possible combination of wolves could be Jenny and Valier...? And there are lots of other combinations too.

Read this clearly: this is not an accusation, this is a lead for anyone to see through, to analyze, to whatever.

Just suggesting alternative theories. That's what we have to do, if we are to take down the wolves... We will have to see different possibilities through and then to ponder over them. I myself have made a couple of light cases / questions, and admitted them being wrong the moment, being given a good explanation to them.

And as in the last game (my first), I do the same thing in this game too, and ask for you to accuse me also! Do it not by saying: I don't like him or his playing style, or I have a hunch he's "out for blood" etc. but make some solid accusations! Only with those can I show my innocense and make you believe, I'm for the good of the village (and avoid those creepy bandwagons of the night...)!

[Nogrod]

PS to the earlier one's...

I'll have to try to get my own head straight with these two last posts. First I was thinking having a good case on the first one, then on this second one.

What differentiates these two posts? Additional information.

So write people, write...

Maybe we will have something done when the evening comes?

[Roa_Aoife]

So, LMP was innocent, and now I find that our attackers are werewolves! How many more may be among us?

Reporting in for the moment. I am here, and I will have some analysis soon. (Good talkative village. I have something to work with.) I see Nogrod is as agressive and accusatory as before. I'd like to remind you that if you are innocent making yourself overtly lynchable does nothing to help the village. This is a team sport, remember: Us (Villagers) vs. Them (Werewolves). The object is to wipe out the otherside. It does us no good if you do the wolves' work for them. And the wolves have an advantage- they know who their teammates are, and can act together. We, on the other hand, are working quite seperately because we cannot trust each other.

Back Soon!

[Naria]

I'd like to address a few things here from bottom to top:

Nogrod

Detail: Valier's and Naria's votes came in after Roa had apologized, that she had been wrong, and that double lynchings were indeed the rule!!!

I for one knew that double-lynching was a rule before Roa has said anything. I did read the rules.

So, don't read too much into what Sleepy has said about me....it won't get you very far Am I just seeing something where there is nothing, but this could be read as a clear threat!!! Read it in that light, and you will see it...

What threat? It wasn't meant to be a threat at all. It's the truth. And yes I would definitely say that you are seeing something that isn't there.

Wow, looks like the time is drawing near so I shall vote now. And this remark is done only some ½ hours later from the earlier one!!! Wow - indeed! What a surprise to her it must have been?

I didn't look at the time after I had done my longer post and thought I had more time. I came back to see what was going on and saw the time was getting on and voted. And yes it did surprise me, hey I'm a fun loving kind of gal!

So she's ignoring the reply, and repeating the accusation that was shown ill informed or misunderstood

My bad, sorry! I just looked now and you had backed off a bit.

having someone like him around would not help at all... So it's not helpful to have someone around, who really tries to make the difference

Again, I'm sorry. You have clearly misunderstood me here. Of course it is good to have someone around that is helpful in their thinking, sure. However, the making a difference part I guess would be how each of us looks at ones posts and making our own minds up if that person has made a difference or not.


Another thing that I find weird is, in his analysis post of me, he spells the word 'Wolf' correctly five times but then at the end he spells wolf with a 'u' instead of an 'o'. Maybe nothing, might just be a typo....hm mm.

And yes, Nogrod I am aware that you are sleeping right now. I can't help that our timezones are different, business as usual.

I would like to catch us another wolf, instead of bickering back and forth. I will address concerns, but do not wish to bicker hence forth.

Gahh, looks like I went and did another long post.

[Naria]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I really was suspecting Naria before that, but now I have to admit, that her scorn over me could be from outside this game (or partly from within this one), and probably be purely personal, well, who knows? Something like that would explain her harshness etc. ("my presence being not helpful at all")

Maybe....point taken though! I will leave outside hindrances at the door when I come into this game from now on. Still, if I have a hunch or my gut is telling me something is fishy about you(or anyone else) I will take a look.

[Roa_Aoife]

Also, I need to point out that while the clue about one wolf was clear in the intro, it's unlikely that any other clue would be that obvious. (I think Sleepy was messing with THE Ka on that one. ) Clues are most certainly in there, but I doubt we'd be able to spot them so easily again. And anything could have a double meaning. As LMP said before he died, the clues may just be mind boggling.

[Gil-Galad]

sorry for not being too big of a player right now, i must re-read the votes and vote before i have to leave...

[Roa_Aoife]

sorry for not being too big of a player right now, i must re-read the votes and vote before i have to leave...

Oh dear, it seems we have a Gandalf repeat. *sigh* Moving on...

Analysis of THE Ka Bandwagon:
After LMP and myself (who I cannot analyze with any sort of objectivity), we have Enca, Thin, and Jenny. It's highly probable that one of these is a wolf. However, it is not altogether certain, since the craftier wolves tend to avoid grouping as much as possible. In the interest of finding something worth looking at, though:

Enca Analysis:
Day 1
1st post- General in character nonsense
2nd - Remarks on nudging quiet ones, but not too hard
3rd - Checks in again, says vote will likely be random
4th - Long. Wants to keep options open regarding quiet ones. Doesn't want to base a lynching on Sleepy's posts. Restates vote record twice. Says kill could go anyway with so many people left to vote. (The number of remaining votes was 8, after her vote.) Decides on voting Ka apparently due to LMP's analysis.

Day 2
1st - Small summary analysis of Ka voters. Thinks one my be a wolf, but seems to justify every voter and doesn't suspect any of them. Has presently taken leave and says she will return.

These are the objective facts of Enca's posting. I'll analyze them according to what I see separately, so as not to sway anything.

Thin's and Jenny's will be up next.

[Roa_Aoife]

Oh, this was a lot of work.

Thin's Analysis
Day 1
1st post - Rhyme about RL issues, questions Nogrod, says first day is all nonsense.
2nd - Greets Jenny, agrees that looking at Ang for rhymes and Valier for typed accent is a good place to start.
3rd - Double post. Comes against with evidence against Roa based on Sleepy's posts, but says she's not accusing her. Says previous remark on role-playing is generally nonsense.
4th - Triple post. Questions Ang's lack of suspicion for her.
5th - Quadruple post. Agrees on giving more time to the silent ones. Says W_Q's silence is not enough to convict.
6th - Quintuple post. Questions own reasoning on Ang, wonders if Jenny has completed her analysis.
7th - Would be sextuple post, except cross-posted with Holbytlass. Changes mind and says she understands Nogrod's point about nonsense posts.
8th - Double post. Agrees that non-voting doesn't help. Agrees that Naria and Valier are "slippery" but there is time left for them to improve posts. Thinks Jenny isn't as bad.
9th - Triple post. Agrees with Naria that waiting is really all one can do on first day. Suggests that the enemy is one that no one has yet suspected. Thinks accusing everyone wouldn't be helpful, but also thinks that watching the reactions to accusations is. Lists votes.
10th - Wonders about the "pressing the silent one's" theory, and about the grouping on that idea.
11th - Nothing post.
12th - Says again that first day is nonsense.
13th - Again wonders about the "silence theory"
14th - Reanalyzes day and realizes that there really was no grouping on the "silence theory"
15th - Thinks Ang is moving on the "silence theory" trend, points out Enca's lack of substance
16th - Thinks Roa's theory is a good one.
17th - Says theory is better, and Roa is unlikely a wolf.
18th - Sarcasm at Eonwe's method of voting. Thinks that some formula is possible. More sarcasm at Eonwe's theory.
19th - Wonders why Roa thinks Sleepy would use "that kind of subtlety"
20th - Wonders about opening poem. Looks at hint in Naria's post, but brushes it off.
21st - Thinks looking at avies is over-kill.
22nd - Replies to LMP's post.
23rd- Says she's accusing Ka rather than defending her. Quotes herself to show defense and attack. Thinks Roa's theory is solid, but doesn't want to take sides.
24th - Wants to hear from Gil, Valesse and Valier.
25th- Agrees that Sleepy is clever, thinks she will bandwagon on the Ka vote
26th - Says Valier is using her accent as a cover.
27th - Nothing post
28th - Says Valier is assuming that the accent will take attention from her posts. Asks why Valier distrusts Nogrod and trust Ka
29th - Nothing post
30th - Points out that she brings up more than one side of the matter. Says she isn't accusing Enca.
31st - Doesn't blame Valier's gut instinct. Votes Ka admits to bandwagon but believes Ka is the most suspicious.

Day 2
No posts yet (Thank God. That was tedious.)

[JennyHallu]

Why is it, that you are outright lying with this one?

Sorry, not a lie, an error. I thought I remembered Valier saying it was a cross-post, and I was wrong. Clumsy of me, but not a sign of wolvishness. Relax, Nogrod. You are very quick to jump to conclusions.

[Eonwe]

Nogrod is very uptight, it seems. But maybe that is just how he plays.

Roa, thanks for doing all this work. I myself am not really fealing up to in (midterms and whatnot ) and so I appreciate it greatly.

If I'm not mistaken (or rather if Enca is not mistaken ), the votes for THE Ka went like this:

1. LMP
2. Roa_Aoife
3. Encaitare
4. Thinlomien
5. JennyHallu

LMP was obviously innocent.

Roa: Don't really know about that. This whole digging up stuff could be an act, and it could just be really helpful. Though she did bring up the whole arrow theory in the first place. I think that would be a point in her favor.

Enca: I think she is supicious. The placement of her vote is a bit suspicious: third, right were it would be when a wolf realized THE Ka was pretty much dead. What with the hinting done by sleepy ranger, I think THE Ka was on her way out.

Lommy: I dunno. Placement of vote is a bit suspicious. Though all the theorising she did yesterDay is again a point in her favor. Though of course it could be an act.

JennyHallu: Ditto. On the 'im not sure' part. Though her vote could be taken either way, depending on teh skill level you attribute to Jenny.... (if you see what I mean.)

More latter on...

[Eonwe]

Lommy, let me clarify my now infamous Post #57:

My vote was completely random, as I felt that there was no evidence for me to follow. I don't think I would have voted for THE Ka, certainly not with all that bandwagoning going on. Of course, I'm not going to be making those 'flighty' (good word, by the way) votes any more, especially as the evidence increases. There was just a derth of information on that first day.

Originally Posted by Lommy

And you suggest that we all just accuse each other totally randomly before the seer comes out?!? And all the gifteds should come out so that they'd be killed? A very fine theory, Eonwe.

No, no of course not. That would be, um, less than smart, to say the least. This is how it works:

Everyone tries to lynch peole they think are guilty (basically you play the game). Hopefully, you can get one or even two wolves. Then, somewhere down teh line, the seer can check of three or four people from everyone's list, the ranger and teh hunter can each take one off (hopefully) and the list suddenly gets rather more narrow. And puts the remaining wolves in a very much tighter place. Of course, this only happens when there is sufficiently few people to make the list small enough to be useful. (AKA, no, the gifted do NOT rush out wildly proclaiming their innconce.) I hope that was more clear than before.

Originally Posted by Lommy

But we can try not to be! I don't think the best way of avoiding a mistake is voting randomly.

Of course we can. The whole point is to educate yourself as best you can, and vote accordingly.

[Roa_Aoife]

Sorry for the delay. Some RL chores needed doing.

Jenny Analysis
Day 1
1st post - says pointing at the too loud or too quiet doesn't normally help. Wants to get some discussion going.
2nd - Doesn't agree with THE Ka's suspicions. Wants to give more time to the silent. Wants to look at Ang and Valier. Decides to analyze Sleepy's posts.
3rd - Likes that people analyzed Sleepy's posts. Vague suspicion that the traitors are female, and towards Naria's intro. Votes Ka.
4th - Detailed vote summary.

Day 2
1st - List of living and dead.
2nd - looks at Ang for not voting for the Ka, and odd case for Holby.
3rd - Accepts Ang's defense. Thinks speculating about what Ka's innocence could have meant is irrelevant. Thinks more obvious hints may be given in the clues.
4th - Definition question
5th - Explains cross post as RL issue
6th - Thinks nothing can be proven regarding Valesse and Valier, but thinks about Naria.
7th - Explains cross-post mix-up as clumsiness

[Roa_Aoife]

Roa, thanks for doing all this work.

Sure thing. Any analysis requests while I'm at it? Really, the kicker was Thin's. Which for my analysis:

Thin is tricky. One wouldn't think a wolf would put themselves out there so much. It seems that they would rather avoid the spotlight than hog it. (No offense.) However, she's inconsistent, and she rarely came up with new ideas with all that posting. Half her posts are merely agreeing with other people's posts, or disagreeing with them. In the end, she went with the popular bandwagon. She even contradicted herself in actions by giving a great deal of credence to my "hint" but while brushing over Naria's. Now, the inconsistency may very well be stream of consciousness writing, and a product of the sheer volume of posts. But odd, isn't it, that if I wasn't actually quite so methodical a lot of this would have escaped notice despite the ammount available? Flood posting- is that a new tactic?

Enca, again adds very little to the discussion, but this may be because RL kept her absence. She did stay consistent throughout, and while I was pleased at finding the hint in Sleepy's post, I do think LMP's analysis was much more persuasive. This is what Enca based her vote on, not the hint I had pulled. Still, she's very iffy. Her lack of new information and the convenient vote can't be ignored.

Jenny is clearly a clever player, whatever side she's on. I wouldn't underestimate her. She does stay consistent on day one, though day two seems more responsive than anything else. That business about the cross-posting seems squicky, but I'm willing to give her the benefit of the doubt.

I did find it interesting that both Jenny and Thin suspected Naria, but failed to push the issue.

[Encaitare]

Sorry I had to run out so quickly before; I had to go do Roa's job (AKA babysit). Just a few small points for now of things that have caught my eye...

The attention to tiny, tiny details in this game is crazy! (In retrospect, it proved to be helpful in getting enough people to vote for Ka, though, so maybe it's not such a terrible thing.) However, analyzing the minutes between posts and worrying about the possibility of people falsely claiming to have cross-posted seems to be time better spent on analyzing actual statements.

One particularly interesting thing...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Just came to my mind, that Jenny said she cross-posted with Thinlómien. Well there is 10 minutes gap between their votes, and Jenny's is not so very long or thorough one! Everyone knows, one can write to the post, that one has x-posted.

There even isn't that edited...xxx -thing attached to the bottom of the post.

I may be seeing ghosts here, but perhaps there could be something?

And only a few posts later, in post #128, Nogrod writes at the end that he cross-posted with the last three people, but there is no "edit" note at the bottom of the post either! So unless Nogrod was lying as well, which I very much doubt, the edit tag is not a reliable system.

I'm going to go back and try to do a more thorough analysis now.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Roa. No, really, I did.

[Encaitare]

Again, some more things that have caught my eye as I’ve reread the Day 2 posts.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

I think he'll be more reserved with regard to narration in future. Rather bad luck on the predators if he isn't...

(bold mine) A true statement, no doubt, but it smells a bit of fraternizing with the enemy… or perhaps a slip that indicates something more deeply lupine?

I do agree with Ang, however, in that the Nogrod bandwagon at the end was very odd. Generally bandwagons lead to a lynching, and aren’t just a brief stream of votes at the tail end of a Day.

Nogrod’s post #122 reveals some interesting points about Naria – perhaps a wolf-Naria would fear that Nogrod’s bold writing could touch a little too close to the mark?

Originally Posted by Roa

I see Nogrod is as agressive and accusatory as before. I'd like to remind you that if you are innocent making yourself overtly lynchable does nothing to help the village.

I don’t see being vocal as being synonymous with overly suspicious. While it’s true that aggressive players often become controversial, and that a wolf can hide behind a loud front, it’s good to get opinions and ideas out there. Despite this statement, I really do believe that Roa is innocent due to her early vote for Ka.

Earlier I said that quietness alone is no reason to kill someone. RL happens, despite our best intentions. But when people do not talk at all, like Witch_Queen, then I think it’s time to become more suspicious of them. I’m thinking that if WQ posts nothing for Day 2, she could be a prime candidate for my vote, if not toDay then on Day 3. Maybe she’s innocent, maybe she’s not – either way she’s not helping.

There seems to be a fair amount of suspicion regarding my vote. I voted third for Ka, seventh in the total order. There were six votes left, and note how easily the final three voters formed a bandwagon for Nogrod! It would not have been impossible for a wolf-Enca to vote for someone else to tie them with Ka with two votes each, and then, as I stated in an earlier post, to sway a couple of other people to that person, rather than cast a crucial vote for a comrade. I hope at least some of you can see the logic here.

Now looking for some clues in Sleepy’s “it shall be over soon” post, perhaps not conclusive but some points to consider nonetheless:

They had called her stupid, they had laughed at her. She would show them who was better, it wouldn't be long now. (About Roa)

This connotes a desire for vengeance, as others have suggested. But as I have stated, I don’t think Roa is a wolf.

She had been cast away by society, she had been called a freak due to what she made. The people were too narrow-minded to see the beauty in her work. (about Thinlomien)

Sleepy hints at Thinlo having a macabre sense of the beautiful, which could go with the bloody fountain imagery.

Her small store was rarely visited by anyone, it reeked of the smell of death but that did not bother her, she just laughed as she did her job. (about Naria)

This has also been brought up before, as laughing while butchering is a bit, er, creepy.

Being a governess was a tiring job, you had to move about and talk to fake people while being marginably fake yourself but it was one she managed to do with ease. (about Holby)

The whole game of Werewolf is about faking people out, and Sleepy says she does it with ease.

That’s all for now. My suspicions are still rather vague. I suppose those towards the top of my list are Naria, Thinlomien (largely for the crazy multiple posting), and Witch_Queen.

I think I speak for all of us when I ask the following people to please speak up:

Witch_Queen
Gil-Galad
Valesse

I shall return around noon tomorrow to read and cast my vote.

[Naria]

Originally Posted by Enca

Nogrod’s post #122 reveals some interesting points about Naria – perhaps a wolf-Naria would fear that Nogrod’s bold writing could touch a little too close to the mark

Interesting, perhaps. True, not at all. Nogrod's bold writing is just that.
Touched too close to the mark, nah he was just annoying me.

This has also been brought up before, as laughing while butchering is a bit, er, creepy.

Creepy indeed! That's exactly what I thought when I read it. But it is nothing more than that I assure you.

But when people do not talk at all, like Witch_Queen, then I think it’s time to become more suspicious of them. I’m thinking that if WQ posts nothing for Day 2, she could be a prime candidate for my vote, if not toDay then on Day 3. Maybe she’s innocent, maybe she’s not – either way she’s not helping.

Even though I am against lynching someone because of their quietness, I would have to agree with this point. She has yet to post in this game and it is making me a little uneasy.(Bolding is mine)

[Nogrod]

Thank's for Roa especially! Good analysis - and a heroic one with Thinlómien!

But just a comment, to begin with. To clear myself a bit.

ROA: I see Nogrod is as agressive and accusatory as before.

JENNY: Relax, Nogrod. You are very quick to jump to conclusions.

EONWE: Nogrod is very uptight, it seems. But maybe that is just how he plays.

Aggressive?
I admit. When it's very silent (f.ex. the first day), someone has to do something. And If I'm being banwagond the way you all saw, you could understand some aggressiveness in defence...

Accusatory? Quick to jump to conclusions?
Not at all! What I'm trying to do, is to find hints, possibilities, oddities, revealing rhetoric, deceptions, lies etc. and try to see, whether I could build anything up from them. Then I try to point these out for everyone to see and look for themselves. What other way we villagers can work against the wolves? Let those who need to hide, do so, we should bang the gong now! But as it is now, I'm not having any conclusions about the situation, quite the opposite, more like baffled.

I really had to check my dictionary about "uptight" (yes, I remembered correctly, just couldn't believe it)! No way! I'm having fun, I really am! Quite relaxed, for it has been an enjoyable game so far.

[Nogrod]

To continue Roa's summarizations (#144), here's what I came up with yesterday (RL), as I tried to study that "late nite bandwagon".

Valesse: Started it. Baffling vote. Probably due to not reading the posts and trying to cover a pure hunch with self contradicting reasons. Bad gaming, but I would say, innocent.

Naria: The last one to vote. I had some lighter and some stronger suspicions over her in my analysis (counterattack, if you will - even though my "attack" didn't include a vote for her: so who's aggressive? ). Naria answered (#134) the light ones well, but seemed to have some trouble answering bit harder one's. Seems to dislike me anyhow, so that makes judging her gameposts a bit harder. Maybe she just didn't know who to vote, and then picked on me from out of annoyance? (Hope she sticks to her promise to leave those things out from her posts from now on)
I'll continue suspecting her, but really admit not having anything to go for seriously.

Valier: Second to join the vote. Kind of making it a wagon. What makes her interesting, is that as I found two possible pairs of wolves last night (both cases being very, very weak, I admit), still she happened to be on both of them.
The very,very weak cases:
1) Actual wolf-bandwagon, incl. Valier & Naria
2) Jenny, who had raised some suspicion (tiny one) trying to clean Valier with a lie, so Jenny & Valier?
But then again: wolfs making a bandwagon at the end of the day? wolf saving wolf? Improbable. But if they are very cunning, then possible. Well you never know the wolves now do you?
Anyhow. Nothing with Valier that would really stick. I, or someone, probably should check her posts still?

[Nogrod]

Answering Enca's post, here concerning the nonposting of the WQ, Naria writes:

Originally Posted by Naria

Even though I am against lynching someone because of their quietness, I would have to agree with this point. She has yet to post in this game and it is making me a little uneasy.

I agree with this feeling of uneasiness. I have the same feeling with Gil-Galad. And somewhat with Valesse.

But I would also like to point out, that someone not posting at all is basically not playing the game. So, at some point at least, I would be ready to leave them be and just ignore them, if we just have anything more sensible to vote. For if someone turns out to be a wolf without posting anything, S/he has not played a fair game and is a moral loser, which I think is the worst kind of losing there is. So then, no problem, even if are dead after all this: we have had a good game which could be called undecided (if someone really wants a verdict). And the cheater would have to carry the guilt.

I'm just afraid, that more probably than not, by lynching these quiet's, we lynch innocents anyhow - and that's the job of the wolves, in which we should not help them at all.

EDIT: As I have already triple-posted and have some RL to live, I'l be off too. But I surely will be around here for a bit more energetic session before the vote.

[Thinlómien]

I will never be able to comment all this! But I try to make points on some things.

I know I was posting pretty much yesterday... I had nothing else to do than play WW so I commented every little thing I thought was worth commenting.

Originally Posted by Encaitare

Sleepy hints at Thinlo having a macabre sense of the beautiful, which could go with the bloody fountain imagery.

Agree that macabre sense of beautiful would maybe go with bloody fountain imagery, but the reson why Sleepy hinted that was probably because of my profession, sculptor specializing in nightmarish birds. If someone makes statues of nightmare-like birds he/she must have a strange sense of beautiful.

One thing troubles me. You're all assuming we have clever wolves. What if we don't? What if the wolves are really stupid?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod, the underlined sentence is a quote from Naria

having someone like him around would not help at all... So it's not helpful to have someone around, who really tries to make the difference (I do admit, that my first day performance was not so good: I couldn't make you all to see my point, and I didn't bet on the right horse - it was just so unbelievable that the mod would bring some RL things into a game...). I would like to ask Naria, which kind of people she would see useful around? Maybe a village full of WQ's (no posts) could be nice, or Gil-Galads (one, nonsense)? To whom, might these be of assistance: to the WW's or to the villagers? If you are a villager proper and not a traitor, why do you think that people who try to elaborate over things, who try to find clues etc. are "not of any help at all"? I would find even a elaborate wolf "of even some help" (compared to this "no help at all")!!!

Nogrod, you don't have to be aggressive to be able to converse! Bringing up new things and thoughts is always good, but it doesn't have to be done in an aggressive manner.

It's good for wolves to have quiet people around; not to have anyone who "presses them against the wall" (if you get my meaning), so I think we should take a closer look on those who voted loud people. Those are:
Eonwe - LMP
and Valesse, Valier & Naria - Nogrod.
Of course they all explained why they voted for the one they voted, but you can always make reasons afterwards and cover the real reasons. Was Eonwe's as random as he let us believe? Why did he change tactics today totally abandoning his previous tactics (in his post #142)?

Some people have accused me today because of my vote. I honestly ask you: if I were a wolf, why would I want to be more connected to THE Ka than I already was (=she voted me)? Wouldn't I want not to be connected to her in any way? I personally think that the wolves would try to avoid being connected with their fellow WWs. Maybe later on, when there's less people left, they would take contact on each other, but on first day, it would be totally unnecessary and unnecessarily dangerous for them. So in my logic it isn't sure that some wolf voted for THE Ka, though I don't say it's unprobable. Maybe the wolves just don't use same logic as I do. Besides, if I were a wolf, why would THE Ka have voted for me? I think it's too risky for a wolf to cast the first vote on fellow WW on the first day. She said she had flipped a coin, but surely she could have said it showed WQ if I happened to be her fellow WW?

I think the wolves are rather the non-bandwagoners than the bandwagoners; everyone who has played WW before knows that the bandwagoners get most analysis the next day.

Totally on a different matter - When I read Roa's analysis of myself, I realised I was quite nonsense-speaker; I said something and then said something totally on the contrary. It's just the thing that I'm not very good at deciding, and I rather write all the pros and cons I can make up on one matter rather than only writing a plain yes or no not caring to think about the another side of the matter.

[Thinlómien]

Analysing myself (the two latest posts) or, clearing up what I meant: It seems that I am very, very poor at deciding things. First I say: why does everyone we have clever wolves? and in the next post I am assuming that we have clever wolves. Forgive me for making all this confusion, but what I thought was that we shouldn't forget the option (however unprobable it were) that wolves can be stupid. Besides, there's much more analysing in what would clever wolves do than in what would stupid wolves do.

Okay, it seems I have to go now. I will be back before voting time, but don't expect me back soon...

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

One thing troubles me. You're all assuming we have clever wolves. What if we don't? What if the wolves are really stupid?

An interesting point, rather like one would imagine a clever wolf might say, m'dear...

Actually-as in my examination of the Nogrod movement-I have not ruled out a bumbling werewolf. But we have to be prepared for the worst as well-being strung up a gumtree by some maniacal brain. You and Nogrod, say, could be inviting us onto the dance-floor of decimation through your joint monopolisation of the arena. It is not an impossible scenario, as an unpublished scriptwriter wittier than I once wrote...

EDIT: Cross-posted with your customary schizophrenia in which you debunked your own point, and very well too...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Ang

for some reason I'd thought Roa had started the movement, not LMP. Thanks for the clarification.

Actually, it was Roa's theory but LMP started voting THE Ka, though he didn't do so because of Roa's theory, unlike other Ka-voters like me.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by The Verbose One

I think the wolves are rather the non-bandwagoners than the bandwagoners; everyone who has played WW before knows that the bandwagoners get most analysis the next day.

One of the shrewdest things you've said yet. If I were a gambler not a herald, I'd bet on one wolf in either THE Ka's lot or Nogrod's lot, and one going it alone, rather like me.

Of course, it rather depends on a number of outside factors, such as experience and strategy. And the most experienced wolves won't necessarily shun bandwagoning. I've seen an entire team of veteran wolves cling to a bandwagon to protect one of their number in my time...

[JennyHallu]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But I would also like to point out, that someone not posting at all is basically not playing the game. So, at some point at least, I would be ready to leave them be and just ignore them, if we just have anything more sensible to vote. For if someone turns out to be a wolf without posting anything, S/he has not played a fair game and is a moral loser, which I think is the worst kind of losing there is. So then, no problem, even if are dead after all this: we have had a good game which could be called undecided (if someone really wants a verdict). And the cheater would have to carry the guilt.

Nogrod, I have two points.

A) Quietness is not necessarily cheating. It is one strategy among many, and it doesn't make her any safer. And, as far as we know, WQ may not have even realized the game has started.

I don't think there is any reason for ad-hominem attacks such as calling a quiet player a "moral loser", or referring to an error as a "lie" (with all the negative connotations therein) without any evidence to prove or disprove whether it was deliberate. As you pointed out earlier, this is, in the end, just a game. You claim to have little patience with rhetoric, so please tone down your own.

B) Your first several posts were urging us to 'put pressure' on the quiet players, even within a few hours of the start of the Day. Now you advise we ignore the quiet? I am confused as to what, exactly, your stance on the issue is?


Thinlo, I believe your contradictions were due more to a stream-of-consciousness writing style, and general boredom. While Roa makes good points (I really appreciate her analysis of the players), my impression of you is generally innocent.

Edit: spelling error.

[Eonwe]

Originally Posted by Ang

If I were a gambler not a herald, I'd bet on one wolf in either THE Ka's lot or Nogrod's lot, and one going it alone, rather like me.

I agree. Though I think Lommy is in teh clear. She's right, there is too much connecting with THE Ka for it to be worthwile for a wolf. Though, of course, that could just be the way she wants us to belive. NOTE: I thought of this last night, and am not just reiterating what Lommy said herself, that would not be good evidence, now would it?

Lommy, you ask:

Originally Posted by Lommy

Of course they all explained why they voted for the one they voted, but you can always make reasons afterwards and cover the real reasons. Was Eonwe's as random as he let us believe? Why did he change tactics today totally abandoning his previous tactics (in his post #142)?

If you read the post you will find I answered this: There is no evidence on day one for me to make an educated guess. As the game porgresses, there is more and more evidece, hence more and more education, hence better and better votes. I'm not going to vote randomly when I suspect someone, but I can't vote pointedly when I cannot suspect anyone. Does that make sense?

[Gil-Galad]

this is my only time to vote

++JennyHallu


i will explain my reasons when i return

[Nogrod]

Amid washing the dishes and cooking I just checked the situation, and must just shortly comment on this.

[QUOTE]

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

Nogrod, I have two points.

A) Quietness is not necessarily cheating. It is one strategy among many, and it doesn't make her any safer. And, as far as we know, WQ may not have even realized the game has started.

No it's not necessarily cheating. I totally agree. And WQ might be anywhere or know anything or not. We just don't know. But I strongly disagree with you about it being a strategy among many. I call it "not playing". Figure a game where all the players adopt this "strategy" of yours! There wouldn't be a game at all! Those who willfully do not post anything are just hang-arounds, parasites one could call them: using those who really play to their own advantage. People who eat from the pile the others gather. People can do so, I know, but the moral side of it is another thing. Real life hindrances are understandable, sure, and another thing. (Although one should consider beforehand, whether s/he is actually having the time to really play when getting involved!)

I don't think there is any reason for ad-hominem attacks such as calling a quiet player a "moral loser", or referring to an error as a "lie" (with all the negative connotations therein) without any evidence to prove or disprove whether it was deliberate. As you pointed out earlier, this is, in the end, just a game. You claim to have little patience with rhetoric, so please tone down your own.

Ad hominem means accusing the personal properties or characteristics of the one you are talking with / about...

But seriously. Those two examples by you do not belong to the same category of things. First. Someone who is a wolf, and cheats all people by staying absolutely quiet, is not plaing fairly. And a win achieved by that tactics I would call very unmoral indeed! (Think of it: three wolves, two nonposters, one very careful post/aDay type. While the villagers realize the situation after 3-4-5 innocent lynches + nightly killings, it's too late already. You call that fair game, good game, or morally plausible tactics, when it comes to playing with each other - meaning, trusting each other to play fairly eg. giving others a chance?)
To refer to error as a lie is strong rhetoric indeed, but on the other hand claiming lie to be an error is the same as well. To this instant we don't have but your word and my word. I can confess, I have used rhetorics (to have a reaction from you), but can you confess yours?

B) Your first several posts were urging us to 'put pressure' on the quiet players, even within a few hours of the start of the Day. Now you advise we ignore the quiet? I am confused as to what, exactly, your stance on the issue is?

Please!!! I thought we were over this already! Didn't I say, that in the beginning it would be good tactics to voice an intention to go for the quiet: not to actually kill someone to begin with, but to make the wolves talk!!! If a wolf "knows", that the quiet are suspected s/he starts posting! And that's what we want: posting wolves who could thence make slips etc.!!! So kind of wrenching them away of "your strategy"! It's totally different thing, who we should try to lynch in the evening!

But what comes to this day's situation, it's a bit different already. We already start to have a picture of this mess - albeit a dim one. And please, I said we should ignore them at some point,if we just have anything more sensible to vote.

What you seem not to have understood, is my point, that if the wolves are playing unfair game, we should ignore them (as well as quiet innocents). That way we might lose the game, but we would have played a fair game. So all the moral glory for us, and the shame to those who played without the spirit of playing and sharing the game!

Oh my, how I can't even make a little comment short!