WWJ IV: Let the insanity ensue

[Mithalwen]

Nogrod if we double post again..... you know the first of our votes will be the clincher?

[Valier]

Ok kill me then you will see! I may be a bit "Frothy" but I have no hidden fur!

[Nogrod]

This drives me nuts!

For Sleepy there could be a case made: being suspicious and then acting out in melodramatically chivalric manner...

Don't have so much a case against Valier, even though the "hunch" doesn't set her quite free of doubt.

[Nogrod]

I might go for Sleepy, if you don't have a case against Valier?

[Mithalwen]

Valier - your posts have been frothy and you have accused me without foundation ..... but at least you are here and I hate self posting - it is a cop out.

Guess I can vote for you tomorrow if I survive the night.

++ Sleepy Ranger

[Mithalwen]

Nogrod - my case against Valier is out there to be read..... but it will keep .....

[Mithalwen]

Sorry - I thought we had to vote by 10 to nine........ oh dear .....

[Nogrod]

We shall share the burden in front of the other villagers.

++ Sleepy Ranger

[Mithalwen]

Nogrod did you just delete a post suggesting a third option or have I gone mad with the stress?

[Kitanna]

Voting closed, expect Sleepy's death soon.

[Mithalwen]

Thank you. I hope he wasn't gifted and that Jenny is innocent....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Nogrod did you just delete a post suggesting a third option or have I gone mad with the stress?

I did, because you had already voted.

Wisdom that comes late is always so irresistible...

[Kitanna]

Seeing the way things had turned that Day, Sleepy Ranger grabbed his guitar and decided to hightail it out of Squaresville. The Rock ‘n’ Roll Messiah simply was not ready for death; especially at the hands of those he had once called friends. So, with guitar in hand, Sleepy slipped quietly out of his house just as it was decided that he was a werewolf by the other villagers.

The villagers arrived at his home and were angered to find Sleepy gone. They tore apart everything trying to find him, but it was too late. The rocker was already miles out of town.

The sun was setting and darkness crept over the land. Sleepy walked along, getting as far away as he could from Squaresville. But the greatest danger was actually waiting just outside of town.

With the death of so many villagers, everyone had forgotten about the penguins of Thinlómien, they had not been fed at all. Now the usually peaceful creatures had gotten lose and were searching for their meal. Sleepy thought he had escaped the frying pan, but now he was in the fire.

As he headed down the path he heard the odd flapping of webbed feet on dirt. Sleepy quickened his pace, but so did the flapping. In a panic he dropped his guitar and bolted for the road. But the penguins were fast, soon the hungry birds descended upon the rock god.

In savagery seen only on the Discovery Channel Sleepy Ranger was reduced to a bloody mass of penguin food. He eyes were pulled out with the beaks, his gut ripped open with webbed feet, his guts poured all over the ground. There is nothing more terrifying than a penguin feeding frenzy.

LIVING
JennyHallu ~ Friendly neighborhood tax collector
Eonwe ~ Hermit
Firefoot ~ Person who runs the stables
Roa_Aoife ~ Local protestor/ lobbyist
Valier ~ Dance instructor
Nogrod ~ Pipe-weed grower
Elu Ancalime ~ Brass Musician
Gandalf_the _white ~ Magician
Folwren ~ Seamstress
Mithalwen ~ Baker/confectioner

DEAD
Kitanna (mod)~ Stabbed with a letter opener on Night One
Wilwarin (hunter)~ Flogged to death on Day One
Thinlómien (ordo) ~ Dropped dead from fright on Night Two
Sleepy Ranger (ordo) ~ Eaten by penguins on Day Two

Night Three has begun, I need Ranger, Wolf, and Seer picks.

[Kitanna]

I apologize for the delay
It was a confusing night and once again the villager gathered to discuss. Like the past two days they woke to find one villager missing. It was the mild mannered seamstress, Folwren.

No one had any hope for her being alive. With heavy hearts the villagers trudged off to Folwren’s house. Her door had been forced open and it was clear she had struggled to hold the wolves back.

They found Folwren’s body next to her sewing machine. The wolves had made a mockery of her humble work by sewing her mouth shut and with hot pink thread at that. But what surprised them more than anything was the broad sword that protruded from Folwren’s abdomen.

No one had seen it before, but slowly two plus two became four. The sword had been Folwren’s secret, she had been their ranger and now their protection against the wolves was gone.

LIVING
JennyHallu ~ Friendly neighborhood tax collector
Eonwe ~ Hermit
Firefoot ~ Person who runs the stables
Roa_Aoife ~ Local protestor/ lobbyist
Valier ~ Dance instructor
Nogrod ~ Pipe-weed grower
Elu Ancalime ~ Brass Musician
Gandalf_the _white ~ Magician
Mithalwen ~ Baker/confectioner

DEAD
Kitanna (mod)~ Stabbed with a letter opener on Night One
Wilwarin (hunter)~ Flogged to death on Day One
Thinlómien (ordo) ~ Dropped dead from fright on Night Two
Sleepy Ranger (ordo) ~ Eaten by penguins on Day Two
Folwren (ranger) ~ Sewed shut and run through on Night Three

[Nogrod]

This is catastrophic! If we continue playing like this, we propably lynch our seer before this day is over!

There are now 9 people left in the village: so the balance of villagers vs. Wolves is 6-3. If these two “non-posters” (Gandalf & Elu) are villagers, the balance stands at only 4-3! We might as well cut our own throats. Then we could at least decide ourselves when and how we die!

[Firefoot]

Well, those are sad tidings indeed. Folwren provided many a thoughtful comment during the day, and I was as confident of her innocence as I have been about anyone's. Her insights - and her protection at night - will be sorely missed.

Jenny – 1 (Elu 1)
Nogrod – 1 (Firefoot 2)
Valier – 1 (Roa 3)
Mithalwen – 1 (Valier 4)
Sleepy – 3 (Sleepy 5, Mith 6, Nogrod 7)

Did not vote: Gandalf, Eonwe, Jenny, Folwren

Let me say that I was rather disappointed when I found that you had chosen to go ahead and lynch Sleepy. Most wolves aren't going to vote for themselves, not at this point in the game where a vote for just about anyone could be justified. He called it a "safe vote" - meaning that he wasn't gifted - but come on, how is it helping the villagers if we vote ourselves out?? We have to focus on catching wolves here. There aren't that many of us. Now, we're down to 2/3 villagers and 1/3 wolves - not what I would call good odds. If we mess up just two more times, the wolves have got us. Now, the seer has had three dreams - now, if all three of the subjects of those dreams were alive, I might almost see some validity in the seer revealing themselves. But if one or more of them are dead, then no.

However we do it, we villagers have some hard-core wolf hunting to do. We can't afford to screw up.

So here's who we have left:

Probably Innocent:
Mithalwen
Roa
And me, of course

Suspicious:
Jenny
Eonwe
Nogrod

Unknown:
Gandalf
Valier
Elu

Nogrod - perhaps my reasons for voting for you yesterday weren't the best, but it's been the best scenario that I have been able to find of possible wolvishness. I still haven't let that idea of a Eownwe-Nogrod alliance go, but I would like to explore other possibilities today. I would especially like to hear more concrete ideas from Gandalf, Valier, and Elu - but I want to hear them from everyone. If we don't start discussing better, the wolves will win almost guaranteed.

I will be looking into Folwren's death more later, to see if I can't find anything other than her apparent innocence and helpfulness to the village as incentive to kill her.

[Roa_Aoife]

I agree with Nogrod. This is getting rediculous! We have nothing to go on because no one will talk. How can we expect to catch the wolves like this? I for one am going back to study Folwren's posts and see what he came up with. I invite you all to go back and see what you can find. PLEASE.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Firefoot. Thanks Firefoot.

[Valier]

Wow I was not expecting that! Our Ranger and our Hunter! Well so much has been going on...Not

Ok so here are my thoughts:

Gandalf did not vote again! I think there should be a penalty for not voting two nights in a row. We know Jenny was busy.

Hmmmm I still think there is always key players like I said earlier, but most of the time they are just loud innocents. My vote yesterday for Mith was sort of random, I just think she could be a clever wolf. I also hadn't heard much from her defending herself or posting any ideas until after I had already voted.

Oh yea I promised a little dance for not killing me!(*does some weird Jig*)

Ok well it is really important that we do not kill another innocent today! We should lynch someone who has posted a fair bit and we can get a slight grasp on. The quiet ones are too risky to lynch now, we can't afford another mistake.

[Roa_Aoife]

Folwren's activity-
Day 1
Notes Jenny is overly aggressive and Sleepy is overly nice. Defends Firefoot. Points out Valier's contradiction. Advises against Bandwagoning. Decides to let Gandalf be. Votes Valier.

Day 2
Still highly suspects Jenny. Believes she knows who the seer is. States that there is still information to discuss. Does a quick analysis of everyone. (Doesn't like Elu's or Valier's lack of meaningful posts. Trusts Firefoot. States Eonwe is careful. Says Mith seems reasonable. Wants to give Jenny the benefit of the doubt. Roa is like Mith, but uncertain. No comment on Gandalf. Unsure of Sleepy. Doubts Nogrod.) Correct me if I'm wrong, but I couldn't find a vote.

[Firefoot]

Valier - there could be a couple of different reasons why Mith is not defending herself to you: a) she has nothing to hide or b) she does not feel there have been any accusations concrete enough for her to defend to. To be honest, you didn't provide a lot of evidence, only that she was a key player who talked a reasonable amount. If someone voted for me on that evidence, I would say that you're right. But that doesn't make someone a wolf. I don't think there's really much Mith could have said to you.

But I do agree that Gandalf needs to get more involved in this game. Sorry if this seems rude, but if you're not going to contribute and you're not going to vote, what is the point of playing in the first place?

[Nogrod]

To Firefoot’s criticism of last night’s decision I would comment, that you could try it better yourself in half-an-hour. It’s always easy to be a smart guy when looking from a distance, in a sense of a) examing the acts afterwards with all the time to use b) not having to do it oneself. And I still defend my vote, at least from one point of view: I had more belief in Jenny’s innocence than Sleepy’s or Valier’s. After the first days rampage as a total newbie, she has been much less suspectable than those others. Without our vote last night, she would have been killed. It’s totally another thing, that I’m really sorry about Sleepy: it was his birthday (in RL) indeed! And of course I can’t be sure of Jenny’s outright innocence either. With this situation, it is more or less a question of more or less. One can’t be sure about anyone.

Kind of asking you Firefoot: on what premises do you base your “safe”-list? On what grounds do you give Roa and Mith a status of “propable innocense”? The point being: on what actual grounds do you draw the line between propable innocense for THREE villagers (just accidentally the number of the wolves...), and leave the rest susceptible?

I really would like to hear your points for common consideration.

Anyhow, we need to stick together and really think. We have taken a bad beating to begin with. A really bad one. Now let us join arms! As I said earlier: I do believe our werewolves are quite cunning and smart. I also do believe, that at least one or two of them, propably all three, are playing actively against the very few of us. They are playing a good game, we are not.

So one thing I would like everyone to consider very carefully. Be suspicious of bandwagoneering this day! There are three wolves who can build their case and the mood for lynching an innocent again. So use your brain, not your “hunches” or impressive, succesive case-building.

And I do have to disagree with Firefoot on still one more matter. This is the seer’s best conduct now. The game has advanced to a such a critical phase, that our seer should start giving us a bit more clearer hints. That of course depending on her/his wealth of knowledge. At this later point I agree with Firefoot. But the limits I would set a bit differently. It propably is not so much a question about how many are dead, but about how many wolves / actively participating innocent’s is she/he knowledgeable of, and which links she/he has managed to see on grounds of this information on both ways. If there is a strong case to be made for even two wolves and a suspicion of a third, she/he should propably go on. Otherwise we’ll just lose our days – and at worst kill her/him this night, misled by our bandwagoning wolves! After her/his death we can read her/his texts with enough care to make the right decisions. If it turns out, that either Elu or Gandalf has been our seer, with considerable knowledge of the situation, I will personally strangle them mentally – even behind the curtains of the second death of the WW-game grave!

So everyone at the defence and beware of the wolves among us!

One wish for everyone. Most importantly for you, who post irregularily. Inform us, when is the last time you are able to make your votes. Today it will be crucial! If we don’t kill a WW today, we really are in deep trouble – as we wouldn’t be already...

Cross-posted with three earlier ones (=hadn't read them before sending this one)

[Nogrod]

Oh.

Just to answer my own question: I can be voting at the dead-line. It's 11pm. around here that time. Now I would need some RL sleep...

[Nogrod]

To be considered by everyone. (Well, you wolves can read this too. But you already know this...)

The wolves will not propably dare to vote for each other this day. And if no wolf is being threatened, they propably split their vote. But if even one of them is strongly suspected, they will make a defence; if even one of them is voted, you'll soon see a couple of votes to someone else (or a second to someone that already has one vote) appear. If things keeps tight, the wolwes just can't afford staying out of the climax this evening... So we'll have to be there too: as many of us that just can.

So postpone your vote, anyone who just have the possibility! If it is not absolutely necessary, don't vote before you really have to.

Remember: at the worst scenario, we may have three votes against one innocent (the seer, f.ex.!).

By falling into their trap this day, we surely lose. We run out of days to lynch those bastards...

To add: I have a feeling, that I have striked on something after Folwren's death. I still have to get some sleep first, but I hope you are here at about 8 am (GMT), and had not cast your votes yet. If I'm accused by certain people, don't you anyone go defending me: we just can't afford that defence-argument for the wolves, so that they could convince even one innocent eye to go astray now.

We can't afford clumsy or random votes, not to talk of evil-informed ones!

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, trying to get a little more discussion.

Folwren thought Valier was guilty, but later eased up on her, chiding both her and Elu for the same offence. She didn't trust Nogrod. She really suspected Jenny. She trusted Firefoot implicitly, though she never stated why. I wish I had asked her reasoning.

If I'm accused by certain people, don't you anyone go defending me: we just can't afford that defence-argument for the wolves, so that they could convince even one innocent eye to go astray now.

Oh well that's nice. Now if anyone accusses you, everyone will think that person is a wolf! The rest of your reasoning is great, but really, that was an unecessary add on. All I have to say is that your return info had better be good.

As for my own suspicions, I didn't want to pursue it yesterday in the interest of fairness, but I don't trust Elu. He hasn't been helpful at all, he didn't vote Day 1, he attacked Valier quite viciously on Day 2, and provided little reason for his attack except frothiness. He never came up with anything new. And his vote for Jenny yesterday was more than questionable. Especially since after he voted for her, he said he wouldn't accuse her out right. I understand the time contraints, really I do, but after the attack of Valier, to change his mind so quickly, it does draw attention.

[Firefoot]

Nogrod - first off, a very fair post. It does alleviate some of my suspicion for you (not that there's that much. The line between suspicious people and innocent people is very fine. There just hasn't been enough to judge from).

I'm not really blaming you for choosing Sleepy; I just meant that I would have done differently. It stands to reason that different people are going to have different opinions and suspicions, as well as different ideas about how the wolves will play. You did what you did; now we move on.

As for my "safe" list - as I said earlier, that line is very fine. But I am trying to narrow it down to focus on a smaller number of individuals, and so far both Roa and Mithalwen have consistently seemed genuinely helpful. I have been able to follow all of their arguments and decisions. They just do not seem guilty to me; not much has changed with those two since I posted my analysis on early Day 2.

on what actual grounds do you draw the line between propable innocense for THREE villagers (just accidentally the number of the wolves...)

Um, do you really think that if I was a wolf I would be so foolish to put my fellow wolves on my innocent list? I would call any wolf that did that brave, stupid, or both.

Just to clarify... I was not saying that the seer should come out. I was exploring the possibility, trying to figure out our best chance to catch a wolf would be. The way I was looking at it, if the seer knew three living innocents, plus themself, that would leave us with only five unknowns with three of those five being wolves. Considerably better odds. However, with our ranger being gone, we would also be guaranteed to lose our seer during the night. Look at my wording again: "I might almost see some validity in the seer revealing themselves." I wasn't arguing for it, just putting an idea out there. But also to the seer: if you are about to be lynched today - don't let it happen. That would be the worst thing, for us to lynch our seer. Or if it's too late, don't go without telling us who your dreams were - please...

I definitely do agree with you about your point of if one of our lesser contributing members is seer... you'll have to race me to strangle them...

At any rate, Nogrod, you are seeming a lot more sensible and I'm following you a lot better today than I have been. I probably won't be voting for you tonight. As an aside, my vote should come at a much more convenient time toDay, with it being the weekend. I should be able to vote much closer to the deadline than I have been.

The wolves will not propably dare to vote for each other this day. And if no wolf is being threatened, they propably split their vote. But if even one of them is strongly suspected, they will make a defence; if even one of them is voted, you'll soon see a couple of votes to someone else (or a second to someone that already has one vote) appear. If things keeps tight, the wolwes just can't afford staying out of the climax this evening... So we'll have to be there too: as many of us that just can.

I have to disagree with you on this one. The odds are looking very good for the wolves right now. I would not be surprised if the wolves did dare to go after their own today if it seemed necessary. It seems to me that the most obvious way for a wolf to reveal themselves is to try and save a fellow wolf, especially while the game is running strongly in their favor.

[Roa_Aoife]

Also, in reply to you Firefoot, I would like to point out that if I was a wolf, I wouldn't have killed Folwren if he though me guilty. It's like saying "Look at me! I'm a wolf!" I don't know if I would have killed him since he thought me innocent, but it seems better to have people around that don't want you dead. Just a thought. It seems more likely that he would be killed by an "iffy" if that makes any sense. (I'm kind of shooting in the dark with this- I've never been a wolf before, so I don't know exactly what I would do.)

[Nogrod]

Just couldn’t get any sleep and decided to see what’s happening. Just a few remarks.

Roa: aren’t you kind of contradicting yourself in words and deeds? First you say (in concerto with Firefoot), that we should see to Folwren’s texts, whether they would reveal a reason for her death. Then you say, that if you were a wulf and had been suspected by Folwren, it would have been like saying "Look at me! I'm a wolf!"! So what do you think you could find from there?

Now I do doubt your (and Firefoot’s) reasons in emphasizing this study of Folwren’s sayings. After all, she was not the seer, and died very untimely. Remember, she was not with us after the very first hours of the second day – when basically nothing happened, and said herself, that she couldn’t vote, because she had only first day impressions! But surely, those first day impressions were positive towards Firefoot (maybe due to earlier games, knowing she is a skillful player with whom it is nice to play and sad to see dying the very first days with no good reasons), and kind neutral or even releasing towards Roa. And she had some first-day suspicions against a couple of others. Leaning on her, this time quite un-informed shoulders, you would play it safe? I don’t blame you for that. It’s intelligent.

Firefoot: you say

Um, do you really think that if I was a wolf I would be so foolish to put my fellow wolves on my innocent list? I would call any wolf that did that brave, stupid, or both.

This surely puzzles me a bit too. But then again, I totally agree with you, when you say, that “the game is running strongly in their favor”, and that “the odds are looking very good for the wolves right now”. Maybe some overconfidence? An idea of getting a “total victory” with all the wolves alive and kicking? That would be some fame! And the situation sure looks so bad, that the wolves could have a realistic run for that one... for we villagers really have played horribly – and even luck seems to have turned it’s back to us.

As a newbie to this game here, I can’t say how frequent way of behaving it is to say, after making a mistake or hasty decisions, that that kind of thing, done deliberately, would be foolish. Well, what else could one say in such situation? At least you both cling to that argument. Again, in concerto.

Sorry for being a bit aggressive, but we should really get something out from this mess. Of the seven active writers, three are werewolves. And if we must consider Jenny being very much distracted by RL, it makes the arena 50-50. So we have to be tougher now against each other. To find the wolves, and to prove the innocents.

[Nogrod]

A little add-on to the earlier. If the situation really is 50-50 (3 against 3), I would hold it a miracle, that it would just be us three innocents discussing here! And I surely know my innocense.

And to amuse us all, a quote from Roa's last message:

I've never been a wolf before

[Valier]

Ok so since there is not too many of you that have posted I don't have much to go on. I agree with alot of your points Nogrod and firefoot.

Innocents?

Jenny- Believe she is "was" a overzelous newbie
Nogrod- also new,makes good points
Firefoot-making more sense as time passes
Elu Alcalime-Hmmm he was visible for quite awhile but never pming at night (sorry!)
Gandalf-well who really knows with this guy!
Valier- So definately innocent

Not so innocent?

Eonwe-well I don't know yet..
Mithalwen- I still think you could be a crafty wolf I just don't have any concrete proof
Roa-Just cause Folwren suspected you does not mean as a wolf you wouldn't risk killing her....Big bluff, maybe?

I know this really doesn't help, but I don't know really what else to say.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Valier

Not so innocent?

Eonwe-well I don't know yet..
Mithalwen- I still think you could be a crafty wolf I just don't have any concrete proof
Roa-Just cause Folwren suspected you does not mean as a wolf you wouldn't risk killing her....Big bluff, maybe?

I know this really doesn't help, but I don't know really what else to say.

How about trying to specificate on these three?

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Roa: aren’t you kind of contradicting yourself in words and deeds? First you say (in concerto with Firefoot), that we should see to Folwren’s texts, whether they would reveal a reason for her death. Then you say, that if you were a wulf and had been suspected by Folwren, it would have been like saying "Look at me! I'm a wolf!"! So what do you think you could find from there?

A good point Nogrod. (Finally someone responds. Refreshing the page very 15 minutes to see if someone replied gets very tiresome.) I do think we need to look at Folwren's posts, because Folwren was killed for a reason. Unless the wolves are killing at random, in which case I should say they were rather lucky in that kill. But I don't think we should look directly at the people she was directly suspicious of, but rather the people she wasn't. Sorry for not clarifying that earlier.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But surely, those first day impressions were positive towards Firefoot (maybe due to earlier games, knowing she is a skillful player with whom it is nice to play and sad to see dying the very first days with no good reasons), and kind neutral or even releasing towards Roa. And she had some first-day suspicions against a couple of others.

Fair enough. I understand why that could look suspicious, but I'm afraid I'm not functioning quite well tonight. I don't expect to use that as an excuse, just an explanation. What I really wanted to was to get people talking. If you think it makes more sense to look at the least suspicious in Folwren's eyes, by all means, look at us. It may help us out even more.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And to amuse us all, a quote from Roa's last message:

*Raises hands in surrender* Alright, I admit! I'm a wolf! Lynch me now!

EDIT: Cross posted with Valier and Nogrod

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Valier

Roa-Just cause Folwren suspected you does not mean as a wolf you wouldn't risk killing her....Big bluff, maybe?

Folwren didn't suspect me.

[Firefoot]

If the situation really is 50-50 (3 against 3), I would hold it a miracle, that it would just be us three innocents discussing here!

I've actually wondered the same thing... it's the best scenario for the wolves, that we loudmouths run each other into the ground and vote each other off. I've seen it before.

I'm a little confused by your statement here:

Of the seven active writers, three are werewolves.

What is preventing the other two people from being wolves...?

I'm still not wholly convinced of your innocence, but I'm not completely suspicious of you either, Nogrod. So rather than keeping on arguing this out, how about we (and Roa) try to cooperate for a while? We're not really getting anywhere this way. Perhaps we should try to look at the other players.

Mithalwen, I still think, is likely to be innocent. At any rate, I'm more suspicious of the others than her, and I don't see any reasoning right now to lynch her today.

That would leave us with Jenny, Eonwe, Gandalf, Valier, and Elu. I would hazard a guess that at least two of the wolves are in this group. Gandalf is obviously pretty unknown, but if he is a wolf, he is almost undoubtedly as unhelpful to the wolves as he has been to us. I don't think that voting for him is the best plan unless there is absolutely no reason to vote for the other four. Jenny is a hard case. After that first day, I really would have liked to see more of her to get a better opinion (I'm not blaming her, don't get me wrong). I could feasibly see voting for her, but I don't know that she'd be my first choice. Valier is pretty out there - frothy... I still don't have a good grasp on her. I think that Elu or Eonwe will probably be our best bet for the vote tonight. Roa's description of Elu does make some sense:

He hasn't been helpful at all, he didn't vote Day 1, he attacked Valier quite viciously on Day 2, and provided little reason for his attack except frothiness. He never came up with anything new. And his vote for Jenny yesterday was more than questionable. Especially since after he voted for her, he said he wouldn't accuse her out right. I understand the time contraints, really I do, but after the attack of Valier, to change his mind so quickly, it does draw attention.

And Eonwe I'm still suspicious of - very careful, perhaps too careful. He seems to be trying pretty hard not to attract attention.

Cross-posting with about five posts...

[Roa_Aoife]

Alright, I'm letting everyone know, (at Nogrod's request) that I'm headed off to bed. I'll be back on most likely in about 9 hours, and I'll have to vote around 10:45 AM EST at the very latest.

[Nogrod]

=Nogrod If the situation really is 50-50 (3 against 3), I would hold it a miracle, that it would just be us three innocents discussing here!

=Firefoot I've actually wondered the same thing...

But I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two wolves - timezones allowing - to be here at the very beginning of the day to see that the discussion starts on the "right tracks". I saw you both being quite similar minded about where and how we should proceed?

=Firefoot I'm a little confused by your statement here:
Quote:
Of the seven active writers, three are werewolves.

What is preventing the other two people from being wolves...?

Nothing is preventing it, but ethics maybe.

If someone mails once a day, at quite early hours, and basically says nothing, he is not playing the game. And if he is having a role as a wulf, he is downright cheating, or at least not playing a game with us but sabotaging, or playing games on us. That would be both cowardly and unethical, with all possible standards - and not fun to anyone. So I wouldn't go wasting any bullets on that direction in this tight spot - the WW's won't do that either... And anyhow: to lose a game to a cheater is not a loss. The cheater is the one who loses. The same applies to Elu too, unless he comes bright and active on today.

So rather than keeping on arguing this out, how about we (and Roa) try to cooperate for a while? We're not really getting anywhere this way. Perhaps we should try to look at the other players.

Well, who says were not getting anywhere? I think this has been the best morning we've had.

But by all means, let's look at your list.

I do agree with your conclusions concerning Gandalf, Jenny & Valier. Not enough over anyone to suggest lynching as a first option. But with the same ground, I must disagree with you on Elu and Eonwe: not enough stuff behind any clear accusations.

Elu has been confusing, I admit. He has been confusing up to a limit of not been understandable any more at moments. So I would argue the same as before: wasting of ammunition at this point (if he's a wolf and we lose, we really don't lose: he loses).
Eonwe has been really careful, and one could say, that he could be seen avoiding attention. Well, there are different reasons to avoid attention: one might be a WW, one might be the seer, one might be just that kind of a person. So not enough to suggest a hanging-party to be sent at his door.

About Mithalwen, I'm quite confused. There seems to be nothing wrong in her - and the terrible lynching decision of last night was lighter to carry with her. Just for that reason alone, I would hold my vote from falling over her today. But still, there is some mirkyness in her: too unsuspectable of sorts? Wouldn't open the door for her in the middle of the night...

All this would be so much easier, if people would come out and tell what they think - or what they would like us to believe, they think.

I'll come with some comments on Roa, as I have time to write them out: I have a bit more of them...

[Nogrod]

My primary suspect at this hour: Roa Aoife
(There is lot to talk and think yet today, so just at this hour)

I haven't got a "smoking gun", but many different small pieces, piling up the best case, I can come up with at the moment.

1) I have not been the only one to have suspicions about Roa along the way. Not to be readily articulated and thence not a good piece - but a piece nevertheless.

2) Her bad contradicting of herself early this morning. First she was looking for evidence from Folwren's posts to help with the case - surely knowing, that they would point to other directions. When accused of that, she argued, that it would be a fool's work for a WW to kill someone who had suspicions about that WW!

Then she went on telling, that

But I don't think we should look directly at the people she was directly suspicious of, but rather the people she wasn't. Sorry for not clarifying that earlier.

But just a couple of lines further she said, that

If you think it makes more sense to look at the least suspicious in Folwren's eyes, by all means, look at us.

So which one of these two alternatives was she thinking? And what was this mysterious "us" doing there?

3) It would be quite suspicious, if someone would like to make oneself look suspicious, wouldn't it? According to Roa's defence at point 2, she basically says, that she was quite ready to draw suspicion over herself, she just forgot to mention this altruistic plan of hers in the first place. This is either a WW, trying to explain away a made mistake, or then utterly stupid villager who tries to offer herself as a bite for the hangers (why? oh, why?). I think no-one would opt for Roa being stupid!

4) She also said, that

I do think we need to look at Folwren's posts, because Folwren was killed for a reason.

I can see this only as a lousy effort to deny the obvious (and cross fingers that no-one notices). Of course Folwren was killed by a reason. Even as a newbie into this game, I could see from the very first day onwards, that Folwren was someone who made a difference here. If I were a wolf, I would want to get rid of her asp., before she would start really to get the hang of things. And so it happened: Folwren had no time to give any useful hints.

5) Then there of course is this "I've never been a wolf before". Well, it's just a slip of tongue. But one should note it's existence. Many criminals are gotten by this kind of things.

In RL I wouldn't lynch anyone on these grounds. But here I might, if no-one comes up with a better argued claim concerning someone else.

I'm sure Roa - and all her fellow-wulfs wishing possibly to save her - can come up with many explanations for the points I have made. But [B]what I would like to see more than that, is a better argued case.

Remember: we will have to make a choice this evening! And as we have a kind of a case here, nothing less than this should satisfy us, when the evening comes.

[Nogrod]

Just a small add-on to the case 3) of my accusation on Roa

In case she would be irresposible (and an idiot) enough to offer herself as a bait at this hour (for what reason exactly?), she wouldn't be explaining her decision, telling us, that she really meant us to look at her... She's not that stupid!

One could also say, that there is a third option: that she was so reliant on her capabilities of arguing her "real" innocence, and that her case would really be so strong, that looking at the evidence from Folwren would turn out on her favour.
But:
1) There really isn't any evidence in a players post, who has just played the first day - and the beginning of the second one, where practically no-one but she made any comments. I'm quite positive, that Folwren would agree on this. So all this is idle stuff, meant to distract us from the real debate we should have.
2) Her position surely isn't a secure one. You all have seen how she contradicts herself time after time and slips her tongue all the time. It would really be stupid indeed to focus the attention to herself - and to repeat: Roa is not stupid!

So I still believe, that Roa was just trying to cover her earlier mistake - or maybe we should say, her wrong calculations about any-one of us villagers to really start thinking about her webs.

PS1. Still waiting for your theories that are better than this...

PS2. Still waiting for you lot to turn online and to continue discussion...

PS3. Gandalf and Elu: please, please show up!!! The village needs you now!

[Firefoot]

Well, who says were not getting anywhere? I think this has been the best morning we've had.

Oh, I agree. What I meant was that if both of us were innocent and we were just arguing about ourselves, we weren't getting anywhere with the real wolves, so I wanted to expand the search outwards a bit.

Remember: we will have to make a choice this evening! And as we have a kind of a case here, nothing less than this should satisfy us, when the evening comes.

The problem is that very few people have posted enough to make a real case against.

Your case against Roa is unconvincing to me. Maybe it's because Roa seems a heck of a lot more innocent to me than you do. I know you think it's suspicious that Roa and I think so much alike, but, at least on my end, it's entirely coincidental, and if she is a wolf, she is doing a superb job of imitating an innocent's posting.

I just woke up about fifteen minutes ago; I'll be trying to dig up what I can find about those people I am more suspicious of. I will be out of the house for a couple hours this morning/early afternoon, though.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Your case against Roa is unconvincing to me. Maybe it's because Roa seems a heck of a lot more innocent to me than you do. I know you think it's suspicious that Roa and I think so much alike, but, at least on my end, it's entirely coincidental, and if she is a wolf, she is doing a superb job of imitating an innocent's posting.

You may say, it's unconvincing. But as I said: make a better one! We have to vote today, and we can't afford any random gut-feelings anymore. That someone "seems" to someone a lot more innocent is not an argument or a case!

She has done a superb job, until today, when she made her miscalculation and got strangled in her own words, too many times, in too consistent manner.

But sure: go ahead with better ones. I'm all ears, and would be happy to find a stronger case. I think we all would...

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm back! Well, it's nice to see some discussion has taken place. Nogrod, you seem determined to misunderstand me.

1) I have not been the only one to have suspicions about Roa along the way. Not to be readily articulated and thence not a good piece - but a piece nevertheless.

Who else? Valier. And that was after I started suspecting her. Nor did she ever give a good reason for it. I'd be more inclined to think that was retalitory than anything else. I should point out that Valier was also suspicious of Mith, but you seem to be more than ready to let her go.

2) Her bad contradicting of herself early this morning. First she was looking for evidence from Folwren's posts to help with the case - surely knowing, that they would point to other directions. When accused of that, she argued, that it would be a fool's work for a WW to kill someone who had suspicions about that WW!

This is the second time I've explained this. Yes, we need to look at Folwren's pots but not in a conventional matter. I'm sorry that I wasn't more clear last night- my brain was a little fried by some RL issues.

Then she went on telling, that

But just a couple of lines further she said, that

So which one of these two alternatives was she thinking? And what was this mysterious "us" doing there?

Us? The people Folwren didn't suspect, duh. I'd have thought that was obvious. And Folwren wasn't suspicious of me. I don't see how I was contradicting myself. I said don't look at the most obviously suspicious to Folwren, look at the least suspicious, and that would be myself, Firefoot, and Mith. I have nothing to hide, and if all your evidence is dependent on my frazzled thoughts today, then I don't what do say. I just don't see the contradiction.

It would be quite suspicious, if someone would like to make oneself look suspicious, wouldn't it? According to Roa's defence at point 2, she basically says, that she was quite ready to draw suspicion over herself, she just forgot to mention this altruistic plan of hers in the first place. This is either a WW, trying to explain away a made mistake, or then utterly stupid villager who tries to offer herself as a bite for the hangers (why? oh, why?). I think no-one would opt for Roa being stupid!

Of course not, least of all me! I don't want to be lynched, but I know that thinking along conventional lines will get us nowhere. We need to be looking at the least suspicious. If that happens to be me, then so be it, but I have only my innocence to show. There were two others in that group. Don't spend all your time attacking one person and not look at the others, we can't afford that.

5) Then there of course is this "I've never been a wolf before". Well, it's just a slip of tongue. But one should note it's existence. Many criminals are gotten by this kind of things.

Oh no, this again. I should note that before also includes Day's 1 and 2 and Night's 1,2, and 3. Honestly, I was very frazzled before and used poor grammar. I mean, that's just silly.

But all in all, I'm glad someone is doing some analysis, even if it's the wrong person. Remember we need to lynch a wolf tonight.

I also think it's a tad unfair to attack me when you know I won't be on for sometime to defend myself, really. I extend to time constraints courtesy to my fellow players, and I expect the same from them.

Speaking of that, why are we the only ones talking? Does no one else have anything to add?