WWJ III - Nan Qualinmerë: Death Wish Valley

[Valier]

I thought I would post a quick post before school.

Originally Posted by Fea

We know each other fairly well in this village... take advantage of it

.

I wish this was true..but I don't really know any of you,so I guess this puts me at a bit of a disadvantage for knowing what someone will do.

That whole last post by Shelob was weird so to speak. Why would you say that you understand why people would vote for you? you are pretty much shouting wolf to me by saying go ahead kill me now, then in the same sentence saying don't look at me,look at everyone else. Getting a little edgy?

Then you say your not going to post more, just stay quiet till the vote....I've seen that somewhere before........I think it was a wolf.

Well that's all I have time for now I will look at what has developed when I get home and vote before the deadline.

[Mithalwen]

Have to go, may not be back so must vote.... could vote for me but I know I am innocent so will vote for the person who confuses me most ..... it may seem like spite since she drew attention to then excused my necessary absence btu Ican't help it.... I don't expect followers , my judgement is really off lately but I know she can be a very dangerous wolf or a very confusing innocent - so really this is a compliment!!!
++Feanor

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Shelob

Here's another idea, let's play suspect versus accuser, you up for that Mr. Inquisitor?

Try me. Oh, you have!

Originally Posted by Shelob

Excellent, so now you can't say "but I'm talkative, ergo I'm no wolf". You yourself have said that you wouldn't mind drawing attention.

That's what I said, oh wondrous passing fair maiden.

Originally Posted by Shelob

That was quite the turnaround there, and all in one post. Somehow you've managed to accuse the only person to vote for you, and three who voted for a now known innocent at the begining of your spiel, and by the end have dropped two of those who voted for said innocent while adding me to your list.

My posting is not the result of painstaking thought. It is thought. If I did not turn around, I'd be awfully narrow-minded.

It's true that my unease about Garin was heavily loaded. It's also true I admitted it was from the outset.

And as for you, I had you pinned as a target to be spun at a rather earlier stage. After seeing your rather hysterical first post of the day. Not at all like this incisive little masterpiece. I'm much easier with give-and-take than weep-and-sigh.

As for effectively dropping off two Eonwe voters, that was the whole point of the analysis! To see who was the most worth watching out of that three. I thought Mith and Valesse more innocuous looking, and said so.

Originally Posted by Shelob

And yet [Fea] appears nowhere on your later lists, if she's "definitively" a wolf you'd think you'd pay more attention to her. Unless labeling people as wolves has descended to the level of a joke...in which case we may as well give up the hunt now and let the wolves take us all.

Our valiant Ranger/Doctor said "Laughter is the best medicine" before he died. Rest assured that Fea and I are taking nothing we say to each other seriously. That won't stop us denouncing on its basis, of course...

The great shame about Eomer's death was that we lost one of the village's most adept joke-takers. The wolf who murdered him must have been a real killjoy.

After that you sink so low as to insult my grammar. As I said regarding Kath, such points are cheap and futile.

Originally Posted by Shelob

So once again you've got someone you feel certain is a wolf...and yet later I'm only second on your list of suspicious persons. Tell me, if you're so sure I'm a wolf shouldn't I be first on your list of suspicious people? And wouldn't it make more sense to press other people (Garin for example, since he's now highest on your list, or Fea whom you also said is obviously) a wolf.

Of course I'm not certain you're a wolf. Who do you think I am? Some kind of...Seer?! But don't slip into defensiveness madam. Keep it cool. It suits you far better. As for pressing the others;

a. I am prodding Garin
b. Fea-Definitive-Wolf was a bleeding witticism...not the first time those things land me into the fray
c. You yourself are implicitly criticising me for trying Garin's defences left, right, and centre; here you order me to press the poor varlet. I like your new signature.

Originally Posted by Shelob

Finally, isn't it odd that the two people you've stated are obviously wolves are the two people we're clearly being made to focus on? It seems a little strange to me that you're either dumb enough to fall into that trap, or dumb enough to keep pressuring it, trying to make people believe it, as it were.

That gets at this squire's pride, demoiselle. Double bluffs exist...in fact single bluffs are rather passe at the moment. And there is no way that you can suggest Eomer's demise makes us clearly focus on Garin.

Originally Posted by Shelob

Now, now, not to accuse you friend Ang, not directly anyway...

Of course not.

Originally Posted by shiningly gorgeous Shelob

but there's enough there for me to feel fine voting for you....

But of course.

Originally Posted by Shelob

As for Garin, I'll note he fell for it.

But so, oh fairer than fair, did you. You ended up lashing 'gainst him anyway. I merely oiled a wheel or two.

Now, voting. I enjoyed Suspect vs Suspect, but neither of you have had much success in persuading me you're wolves yet, sadly.

++KATH

See my analysis on the Eonwe crowd for my reasons.

[Kath]

Right I have returned! And I must admit to complete shock - Lommy was a wolf! Kudos to anyone that actually spotted that and didn't vote randomly.

But to todays problems. There seems to be a lot of fighting between people, with Garin and Shelob in particular being very defensive. Being accused is often just a way for people to generate discussion, it doesn't mean they have something against you on a personal level. Don't take it to heart!

Now yesterday we had three bandwagons through the day for Lommy and Eonwe:
Lommy - Eomer, Anguirel, tar
Eonwe - Kath, Mith, Valesse
Eomer - Fea, Shelob, Lommy

We know that Lommy was a wolf and we know that Eomer and Eonwe were innocents. Now I doubt that wolves would vote for one of their own on the first day so (by my reasoning) that rules out Anguirel and tar as well. I am prepared to believe though that a wolf would be in either the Eonwe or the Eomer bandwagons. I'm going to rule out Fea (albeit grudgingly) because of the backtracking. While that might seem suspicious, I don't think she expected so many people to hop on the end of her vote and actually kill Eomer.

Fribble the tortoises need feeding. More in about half an hour.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

Abercrombie voted for me on day one, because she was baffled by my vote for Ang. I didn't care for her reasoning,

You're looking way too deeply into my vote (the only vote that you got all day, so I still can't see why you're harping on it). I voted for you because:
a) the day had barely even started yet and you had voted for Ang, someone who I thought was likely innocent.
b) there was already a bandwagon going on with Eomer (I can't remember if the Eonwe one had truly started yet) and I certainly did not feel comfortable voting for him (because of the bandwagon, his hints and the fact that he's a good player and someone that I didn't want to lose immediately.)
c) it was the first day. I'd say that you shouldn't worry too much about my vote simply because there was very little reasoning behind it except what I've mentioned above. But what else was I supposed to do? This amount of evidence is a perfectly logical amount to go on on the first day and I'm sure there were other votes that had less reasoning.

It seems to me that to continue your suspicion of me and Anguirel is futile and a retribution for our noted suspicions of you.

As far as AbercrombieOfRohan, I apologize for making fun of your name (linking you to a certain brand name)

You were making fun of me? I didn't even notice...

But enough of that... Let's move on to bigger and better things.

Shelob- You're confusing the Inferno out of me friend. One minute you seem a very likely candidate for lynching and discussion and the next you start making sense. Stop that and make up your mind! Either be ridiculously suspicious so I have reason to vote for you or be completely innocent so I can write you off. Tolkien would be disappointed, he always clearly defined his good and evil.

the rest is, for a while anyways, silence.

I'm not happy with this statement. I think that in your position it's best that you continue talking so that I can more clearly fix my thoughts on you. (Though I do understand your reasoning, I think that regardless, you're going to be a topic of discussion today.)

Tar's was a defence? hmm...maybe I should go fully wake up before continuing, I took it as more stones being slung my way...

I read it this way also. Anguirel, care to explain your comment about it being a defense?

However, I'll ask this: DON'T FOCUS ON ME TODAY!

I'll ask you then Shelob, who else should we focus on today? It seems that of the names mentioned so far, it's going to be you, Garin and possibly Wayne who have their names dragged through the mud. The only other possibilites are Tar, Anguirel and Fea, who if any one of these people are wolves, I will be thoroughly disappointed in myself, because right now they are seeming more innocent than you.

I'd also like to hear much more from Mith (I know you have computer problems) and Kath. They could be assets to this game, but their silence is making me uneasy.

I hope that's it, if I repeated myself or didn't make sense...well, blame anything that's already been sent to Mordor.

[Anguirel]

tar-ancalime basically reminded me at one point that assuming Shelob's guilt did a great disservice to the tactics of Thinlomien-that two wolves wouldn't blithely hop onto the same bandwagon. I had to admit that this was a good point, and it's still the major evidence in favour of Shelob's innocence in my mind.

Kath, do defend yourself when you have the time. I don't really want to have to keep my vote for you, for you are lusciously fair of countenance and I'm fond of the tortoises.

[Kath]

Well my absence got me a vote but nevermind. Votes for those who are quiet are often from those with something to hide behind bluster and talk. Since you say you want a defence Anguirel here it is - I'm innocent. Useless defence I know but it's all I have. Also, I said when I voted that I had no real reasoning for the vote. I am sorry that it led to the death of an innocent but I'm afraid I had nothing to go on.

Back to my post. I rule out Fea for removing herself from the bandwagon as I said. I will also remove myself. That leaves Mith, Valesse and Shelob. Of those three I would consider Shelob the most suspicious, though I freely admit that that is based on a lot of what has been said today. Mith we have not seen much of today due to her troubles and because of that I am willing to give her the benefit of the doubt as she seems so frazzled that I think it unlikely to be a bluff of any kind! Valesse I am not sure about. Her explanation of her vote was as good a one as any (and far better than mine).

I'm always a little wary of dissecting bandwagon votes though, as it is possible that everyone on them are innocents. The wolves may wish to distance themselves from something that's going to be so carefully looked at.

So, the other votes:
Garin-->Anguirel
eonwe-->Valier
Valier-->Wayne
Abercrombie-->Garin
Fea-->Fea
Roa_Aoife-->Shelob
Wayne-->Fea 2

No one but Fea had more than one vote to their name, and to be honest since that second vote was given by Wayne I'm not inclined to read much into it. Gandalf didn't vote but I'm taking his word on not knowing we had started as if I hadn't been hanging round here I wouldn't have either!

So that leaves me with these as a list of possible wolves:
Shelob - as I've said any suspicion here is mostly based on the accusations people have been throwing at her all day, as well as extremely defensive posts in response.

Garin - again very defensive. He has been consistent, voting for Anguirel on both days. This makes me think he might be innocent, as not many newbie wolves would stick so to their principles (at least in my opinion).

Valier - did a very helpful analysis of Eomer's posts. They do point to Shelob's being guilty but then, Eomer didn't actually know anything. Voted for Wayne, which I can see as an understandable random vote on the first day.

Abercrombie - suspects Shelob simply because she lived past day 1. Talks quite a bit though mainly in response to others. Seems to be cool and clear headed, which actually makes me suspect her as a wolf would have extra knowledge and might have a least some assurity of what was going to happen.

Roa - has made one post today (I think). Can't do anything about him til he reappears.

So:
Shelob and Abercrombie are those I have suspicions of based on something tangible.

Based on gut feeling, I'm not keen on Garin and Anguirel. Not in retaliation to the vote I just received before someone points that out. I have a natural tendency to distrust anyone that seems to be taking charge. It's habit.

[Anguirel]

That'll do passing well, Lady Kath. I'm going to vote for Roa_Aoife. A friendly spur to provoke a tad more action.

--KATH, ++ROA_AOIFE

Well, if you can retract, you might as well retract, blast it...

[Kath]

Ok time for someone to help me with my maths.

a) Have there already been two votes for Fea, one from Mith and one from Wayne?

b) When is the deadline?

And for fear of not getting back on here before the time's up, here is a vote just in case.

++WAYNE

Because if I am back in time to change it that's great, but if not I'm not so averse to losing him.

[WaynetheGoblin]

i dont trust anyone.i dont care what he said but i go by my gut.i wanted to change my vote and abrodcrobie sorry your before me. gandalf has been acting strange to strange and with all the things going on i will vote.

++gandalf

[Garin]

Shelob: However, I'll ask this: DON'T FOCUS ON ME TODAY!

That was wonderful by the way but I can do you one better.
HEY GUYS, I AM A GREAT GUY, FUN TO BE AROUND AND EXTREMELY GOOD LOOKING SO NEVER LYNCH ME. 'KAY?
Anyways, I'm strapped for time and have really missed why Wayne, Kath and Gandalf have garnered votes. Not to be lazy but direct me to the posts.
Okay, I'm being lazy.
I am a carpenter and I think I had one splinter too many today.

[Shelob]

Umm, Ang, could you lay off the "shiningly gorgeous"s and "oh wondrous passing fair maiden"s. At least in regards to me...quite frankly they make me more nervous than someone wearing a sign that says "Werewolf and proud of it"

Speaking of signs:

Tolkien would be disappointed, he always clearly defined his good and evil.

I'm pretty sure he'd be disappointed by this whole thing then, since for "good and evil" to be "clearly defined" the wolves would have to either tell us they're evil or be wearing the previously mentioned signes...somehow I don't forsee this happing, this side of reality anyway.

I think that in your position it's best that you continue talking so that I can more clearly fix my thoughts on you.

Perhaps, but I wanted to give a chance for other people to to be noticed, and to speak, I'm back now so fix your thoughts away.

That whole last post by Shelob was weird so to speak. Why would you say that you understand why people would vote for you? you are pretty much shouting wolf to me by saying go ahead kill me now, then in the same sentence saying don't look at me,look at everyone else. Getting a little edgy?

Not edgy, irked. But as to why do I understand if people vote for (and even, perchance, end up lynching me), quite simply because I am in a very suspicious looking position, people look for (and vote for) people who look suspicious. If I didn't understand that I'd have a real issue now wouldn't I.

As for "saying go ahead and kill me now", I'm pretty sure I didn't say that. Perhaps you read it as that but I said I understand if you all end up killing me. To that "shouting wolf", perhaps we're playing with different wolves? The last time I checked the ones we're after were trying not to shout their presence to the world.


By my reconing there's ~5.5 hrs until this Day ends, correct? Since I can be on pretty consistantly until then I'll keep checking in fairly regularly.

[Garin]

I should explain: in the world of retractable votes I want my vote to count, so if I must change it to seal someone's fate I will, just give me a good reason. I never like the really silent ones, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

[Shelob]

That was wonderful by the way but I can do you one better.

One better? I wasn't Trying to do anything except keep the lot of you from foolishly giving the wolves perfect cover! I never said "Don't lynch me", in fact I said 'Go ahead and lynch me if you think you can gain by it". What right have I to even suggest people don't lynch me? We're in a village with Werewolves, if enough people think I'm suspicious then by all means lynch me. It's better to lynch a suspicious looking innocent and learn your mistake than keep them around and never be sure if they're waiting to Claw you in the back.

[Garin]

Dearest Shelob
And they call me defensive? I was just having a bit of fun.
Actually, I remember a past life in which I was just as defensive. In fact, I might have even been a werewolf. In a previous existence, of course. In a land far away.

[Shelob]

Bloody Jokers! Be done with me then, eh?

++Shelob

and laugh yourselves to death.

[Garin]

Shelob, if you are truly innocent you are doing our village a disservice by offering yourself to the noose.
If you be a bluffing werewolf, I say good riddance.

[Valier]

I may have seemed to have a past life as well Garin, that my instincts told me to vote for the defensive one, and they were in fact a wolf. I might employ the same tactics now, as then and catch us a wolf. Then again an innocent will still feel the need to defend themselves as feverishly as a wolf would.

So saying that my vote is leaning towards Shelob, But I'm not concrete on it yet.....Time will tell I guess.

[Shelob]

you are doing our village a disservice by offering yourself to the noose.

No kidding, though perhaps you'll grant me to today hasn't been the greatest of days? And I have math work, if you're looking for bad combinations of factors "not being trusted" + "Statistics project" + "Calculus Project" + "can't tell when people are joking unless I can hear/see them" is high on the list.

I'm leaving my vote where it is for now though, as I see I'm doing a disservice by dying now, but if I survive longer and still aren't trusted I'll do a greater disservice later. If something comes up that warrents me changing it I shall.

[Garin]

This 'statistics' you speak of, I believe that it has once led me to the edge of a cliff.
Strange tongues speaking of Chi and Anova, maybe death is better.

[Kath]

Well arguing like this isn't going to get us far! Shelob, if you are an innocent I would suggest you change your vote.

Voting so far:
Shelob - Shelob
Wayne - Gandalf
Kath - Wayne
Anguirel - Roa
Mith - Fea
Garin - Shelob
Gandalf - Wayne

So the two looking at being lynched today are Shelob (unless she changes her vote) and Wayne. Do we really want another double lynching? If both are innocents our numbers are going to decrease pretty rapidly.

[Garin]

Kath: Do we really want another double lynching?

I don't like the village's odds when it comes to double lynching, although it worked, to an extent, yesterday. Kath, you have attracted votes. You have also, voted for Wayne. I didn't get a good idea as to why. Please elaborate. I want a wolf today and the time grows near. I am still leaning towards Shelob, due to the air of desperation. I just do not want another innocent gone, two especially.

[Shelob]

If I change my vote you'll be stuck with me, you know that right?

There's no way the wolves are going to kill me now so I'll be here each DAY I'm not lynched.

And if I'm not lyncehd and I'm innocent you'll never be quite sure of that, but if I'm not lynched and I'm a wolf you've just handed me an excuse to continue amongst the living.

For my part I still say I'm innocent, and that I lie not, but you have no way but my death to tell. If I change my vote you'll either have to get both the real wolves despite my distracting presence or kill me later, and the longer I remain a distraction the easier it is for the wolves to hide.

That's worse for the village than just losing me now, though unless we're sure of Wayne's guilt (which I doubt we are) I'd suggest someone breaks the tie.

[Kath]

At the time it was a safety measure to ensure I would have voted, and I dind't change it when I last posted because I hoped that Shelob would change her mind. However, it doesn't appear that she will and I am really not keen on the idea of a double lynch so:

--WAYNE, ++SHELOB

Hopefully it will be the lesser of two evils. The death of only one innocent at the worst, and the death of a wolf at best.

[Garin]

RETRACTABLE VOTES, PEOPLE!!
Give me a reason to pull away from Shelob and train my bow towards another's furry haunches and I shall.
But, right now, it is worth finding out.
Anyone hear from Abercrombie...nothing implied...by the way?

[Shelob]

This is crazy, I finally give up hope you of people ever trusting me, decide it's for the overall better of the village if I'm not going to be a distraction on later days...and all they can do is beg me to change my vote...

well then, if we're serious about it, let's find a more wolf like cantidate shall we?

[Kath]

Garin you and I could both point our votes at one person to ensure Shelob's safety. I don't believe that she is a wolf as this is an incredibly dangerous bluff to play. Though of course, you could also be a wolf and have planned all this between you but that will just confuse my brain. Is anyone else around? I could use some more input on this.

Although all we actually need is for Shelob to retract her own vote.

EDIT: Yes please Shelob! Let's do that!

[Shelob]

Alrighty then Kath, you and me, let's look at everyone and let's look at what Thin did before her death...which, actually, I just did.

Thin began by bemoaning the deaths of Glirdan and Gil. Her next post suspected Eomer and Ang for being talkative and trying to make themselves trusted. She comments that everyone is suspicious so the best we can do is guess and hope. She comments that Roa hasn't been on it, and is suspicous for being quiet. She votes for Eomer, since he "trys to flatter people more than Ang"

At first glance this'd clear Ang and Roa, though her mentioning Eomer and Ang then dropping one could be a wolf trick to hide Ang in case of her death, I'm disinclined to believe it at this point though, but it should be mentioned.

[Garin]

Garin you and I could both point our votes at one person to ensure Shelob's safety. I don't believe that she is a wolf as this is an incredibly dangerous bluff to play. Though of course, you could also be a wolf and have planned all this between you but that will just confuse my brain. Is anyone else around? I could use some more input on this.

Yes, PLEASE give us input!
Plus, Kath I still see Ang voted for you but his vote lynched a wolf. Please defend yourself.
If you need any pointers........Edit: [I]Don't look to me because I suck at it

[Garin]

I currently expect Ang to be innocent due to his vote for Thin, can werewolves be that devious?

[Kath]

That leaves a lot of people left to suspect though Shelob. I'd be somewhat inclined to think that her dropping Eomer's name in with Ang's might point to Ang being a wolf since she'd know that Eomer was innocent. Innocence by association and all.

Garin I don't understand. If he voted for me how can he have lynched a wolf?

[Kath]

Can werewolves be that devious?

Yes. Most definitely. That little tactic would appear to put Ang in the clear since Lommy was a wolf. It might be plotting.

[Valier]

Well I have read this little debate. I don't know...you guys are a little too confusing for me yet. But I was going to vote for Shelob but if you can prove that there's a better candidate. I would like to hear it.

[tar-ancalime]

Shelob, STOP IT!

You said:

Tar's was a defence?

Yes, it was, as a matter of fact (see Ang's post). I thought that Thinlomien's presence on that bandwagon(coming AFTER you) effectively exonerated you, which is why I couldn't understand why you would excise her from your analysis. It made your analysis look suspicious because you weren't presenting the whole case.

I really don't think you're a wolf. There, I've said it and I certainly hope you're not because if you turn out to be one you're going to take me down with you as your only defender.

Which, by the way, I'm about to stop being. Your posts throughout the day have made it very clear that you're not interested in the kind of help I can give you; you're only interested in seeing accusers everywhere and in flying off the handle. I wash my hands of the whole situation, especially if you're going to persist in voting for yourself.

The one focusing the conversation on you is YOU. In your absence there was discussion about Wayne, Garin, and others. But on your return and your pugilistic posts, of course things got back to you.

I still don't think you're a wolf, but don't expect any more defenses from me. I wash my hands of you.

[Shelob]

It does leave a lot of people to look at, but unless someone wants to go back over Angs posts now and find evidence one way or the other the best we can do is speculate.

beyond Ang though we've got
Roa
Mith
Gandalf
Valier
Valesse
Wayne
Fea
Crombie
tar
and, of course, ourselves (note, Garin, I'm counting you in on this), to look at...we could split it, each take three other people and look at what they've done...

[Garin]

Kath you have said little in your defense but seem to be show sympathy towards the currently furry Shelob, despite your vote. Let 'er rip. Feel free to chime in, Ang.

[Shelob]

I knew leaving was a good idea, tar...and I came back 'cause of Abers.

Right now though I'm seriously going to try and look at everyone else, if you wanna help have at it, else wise I'm just going to let myself be lynched and rid you of the problem that is me.

[Valesse]

So sudden the scene seems stormy! (Are seconds days always so vicious?)

It might not be so strange that even after all of this that my first... okay well this is going to sound sick... "draft" to "decorate the family tree" hasn't changed. Though I might just be alone in voting for them (Yep! I'm still withholding for the sake of my possible safety.), I'm suprised no one else is... lest they have changed their vote from doing so.

Something seems fishy to me, and since I spend most of my time much further away from the water than any of the rest of you, thats saying something! Not that I don't find... oh...

There's no way the wolves are going to kill me now.

just a wee bit outstanding, and worth review. I can pretty much promise my vote won't be Shelob today.

Today I think she is innocent.

So at a glance:

Anguirel - Roa
Gandalf - Wayne
Garin - Shelob
Kath - Shelob
Mith - Fea
Shelob - Shelob
Wayne - Gandalf

As I see those who have received votes:

Our big "winner" Shelob has given up trying to tell us how innocent she is- even after her command (which was not very well received) not to do the very thing we have all done. Someone is rather "eager to deal death in judgement" as they always say... Would a wolf kill themself of make the option so open?

Fea is herself: laughy-daffy and lets not forget cunning. Someone very wise said once that

This is not a wine for drinking. This is a wine for laying down and avoiding

If Fea were a wine... she'd be that wine.

I haven't the faintest idea why anyone would vote Roa but she doesn't say much, so why not?

Wayne and Gandalf have it out for one another.

Have I missed anything?

[Kath]

Garin I am completely confused! I thought we had just agreed that Shelob was unlikely to be a wolf! And why am I the one suddenly needing to defend myself?

tar - Shelob is trying not to take thigs to heart anymore and I think will retract her own vote.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Shelob

just going to let myself be lynched and rid you of the problem that is me

.

Ok Ok enough all ready that was the last straw for me.....Wish granted


++ Shelob