Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

[wilwarin538]

My reasons for suspecting Lalaith:

She started of yesterday in a very bad mood, got very snappy with Anguirel(who was only playing his part)

She pulled the very over used "I don't expect you to believe me, but I'm not a wolf" routine.

She then became suddenly very nice and more helpful, posting everyone's actions up to a certain post and keeping track of the votes.

Shows a little of mercy by not voting for me, going for the sweet thing again.

ToDay, she goes from sweet to snappy again.

If you ask me we have ourselves a Jackel/Hyde.

( I know this sounds very mean and all, sorry bout that, I just want my point to get across )

crossposted with Kath

[Glirdan]

We need to keep ourselves wrapped in earnest debate, lynching each other, while around us our comrades drop like flies. A well-tried and tested strategy, though some have doubted its efficacy...

Thank you for pointing this out to me Firefoot m'dear. As soon as I read it, I stopped and sunddenly got a chill up and down what's left of my spine (stupid rocks, trying to break my fall when I'm falling off a cliff into water). I'm more suspicious of Ang today then I was yesterday. And then Ang being suspicious of Lmp for the plan he made yesterday as well tells me that something's not right. Yes I did think Lmp suspicious for the same reason, but then I passed it off as a "He's just trying to be a helpful villager". That doesn't mean, however, that he is cleared from suspicion.

I voiced my suspicion, and my plan to vote vote for Bergil, at the same time Wayne voted for him. I didn't know until after my post had shown up that Wayne had voted.

Basically I didn't plan to vote for Bergil 2nd, it's just the timing of mine and Wayne's posts.

I'm extremely sorry for being a part of Bergil's death, but at the time it seemed like a good choice.

I'll take this into account Wilwa, but you're not cleared from my list either. I'd also like a more profound explanation from you as to why you think I'm suspicious. Is it just because I flip flop around? Or is there more to it than that?

Suspicious:
Wilwa
Wayne
Ang
Lalaith

*That list is not in any general order
**I'll probably be voting around the same time today or earlier because of time zone differences.

[wilwarin538]

Is it just because I flip flop around? Or is there more to it than that?

Ya, thats pretty much it. But you always do that, you're just doing it differently this time. I know that doesn't make sense, but it does to me. You just seem to be acting strangely.

[Glirdan]

But you always do that, you're just doing it differently this time.

*Ok people, Spawn's already said this but I'm going to say it again. No bringing up past games or talking like this is a game. So what ever so and so might have done in another game, don't assume anything off of that.*

I see, but that's how us undead folk act you know. Strange and eeire like. We are dead who've come back to life after all. (, that was stupis so ignore it) As for you suspecting me, there has to be more reason to it than just that I flip-flop around a lot. I know I changed my mind quickly about Lmp and Bergil, but I was never overly suspicious of Bergil. And Lmp is still not quite cleared of suspicion in my eyes. I don't know what to think of Eonwe any more. I'm very confused at what to think of Eonwe. I can't really gather anything else off of the others yet.

Menel and anyone else, is there any particular reason you guys suspected me yesterDay? Or are they the same reasons as Wilwa's?

What you said about Lalaith and her Jackal/Hyde type act made me think as well. Naturally, makes her even more suspicious in my eyes.

[wilwarin538]

there has to be more reason to it than just that I flip-flop around a lot

I personally think that should be reason enough.

**and actaully its more we can't say "back in WW2", we can say things like, "Oh his attitude is nothing new", as long as we don't directely refer to a past game its ok**

[Lalaith]

LMP, it was this kind of comment that riled me:

'LMP, you're overlooking that I'm in a later time zone than most of you, and that's why I voted when I did.' It's too easy to hide behind that kind of excuse, so I'm not giving anyone who uses that a free ticket to innocence.

It seemed to me that you were saying anyone who doesn't fall into line with your plans would be in trouble. If that's not the way you meant it, fine, I accept that.

As for Wilwa:

She pulled the very over used "I don't expect you to believe me, but I'm not a wolf" routine.

Hmmm, my dear, that "routine", as you put it, was merely in response to Kath, asking for responses from 5,10, and 15 on the list. Firefoot, me and you. I responded quickly and honestly. You responded...not at all. (Nor indeed did Firefoot)

Glirdan, I explained yesterday why I suspected you, you'll find the reasons in my long post made mid-afternoon.

But look, there's a whole bunch of us arguing here, but there are some villagers that are kind of slipping under the radar. I need to go to bed now (and no corpses on my dais, Mr funny-business Undertaker) but I'm going to look at this all with a fresh eye tomorrow.

[Firefoot]

Okay, here's my analysis of Day 1, since I coudn't do it yesterday. It's probably not complete, as I was trying to gather general thoughts of everyone rather than target people. Also, I was getting lazy towards the end (I've been working on this for too long). Now at least I know who I'm primarily focusing on. I have read up on the Day 2 stuff, but not gone through it thoroughly. It does not contribute to this.

Anguirel
Suspects: Glirdan; Kath, Menel, Firefoot, Glirdan, Eonwe, Celuien; Wayne (for lack of posting)
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: Wayne

General: Some back-and-forth with Lalaith at the start, encourages lots of talking; Disagrees with LMP’s plan; dislikes Wayne’s lack of substance and intends to vote for him for that reason. I find him rather suspicious. It’s mild suspicion, mostly because I haven’t found much to really back it up. But I’m definitely watching him.

Celuien
Suspects: (mildly Glirdan, Bergil, Wayne, tar-ancalime;
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: Wayne

General: Early on, has seen nothing so far suspicious, brief summary of so far happenings; refuses to make random accusations; disagrees with LMP’s plan. She’s not too suspicious to me. I have followed what she has said, I haven’t seen anything to make me suspect her.

Eonwe
Suspects:
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: Kath (randomly)

General: Wants everyone to explain their theories in depth; responds to Menel that the wolves would have to be very lazy to have to communicate publicly with other wolves during day; says random voting is pretty much the only way to go on Day 1, rating helpfulness is useless; thinks LMP’s plan is worthy, but doesn’t want to be leader; clarifies to say he doesn’t want to use the plan yet, but wait till later. He’s somewhere in the middle for me. I’d like to hear some more concrete suspicions from him.

Glirdan
Suspects: Celuien, Kath, tar-ancalime (apparently serious); LMP (later retracted), Eonwe, Bergil;
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: Eonwe

General: Mostly jesting accusations of everyone, though with some serious thrown in; seems to suspect LMP not based on content of plan but because it is a plan – could be a wolf trying to influence events too much; now disagrees with LMP’s plan based on content. He is all over the place, and rather suspicious to me. I will gather opinions from toDay and make some judgments from that.

Kath
Suspects: Menel (past experiences); mildly: Ang, Glirdan, stronger: Kuru, LMP, Wilwa;
Accuses: Firefoot, Lalaith, Wilwa (randomly);
Defends:
Votes: Wilwa

General: Says that she’s talking just to generate discussion; briefly disagrees with LMP’s plan, doesn’t really state specific reasons; In depth analysis of everyone over two posts; wants to hear more from Wayne. She seems pretty innocent to me. I haven’t really seen anything to make me suspect her.

Kitanna
Suspects: Glirdan; Bergil, Glirdan (both mild); Anguirel, Lalaith, tar-ancalime, Wilwa, Eonwe, Celuien
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: Celuien

General: Agrees that talking without substance doesn’t help the village, dislikes Kuru’s idea of random voting without discussion but otherwise agrees with him; wants reasoning from Bergil about his vote, disagrees with LMP’s plan, thinks Glirdan changes his mind too much. Again, I don’t have too much reason to suspect her. She seems pretty innocent to me.

Lalaith
Suspects: Glirdan, Bergil, Wayne, Wilwa, LMP, Firefoot, Menel, Ang, Kuru (in order)
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: Bergil

General: Some back and forth with Ang at the start, wants everyone to talk as much as they can; explicitly states that she is not a wolf; is glad for LMP’s plan as it gives something to discuss; long analysis of everyone, though with few of her own comments; says it’s too easy to vote for Wayne. She’s in the middle for me. Not really suspicious, though not quite cleared. There are other candidates that I find more suspicious than her.

littlemanpoet Suspects: Glirdan; mildly: Kitanna (retracted), Bergil, tar-ancalime, stronger: Celuien, Lalaith, Wayne, Wilwa, Kath (retracted quickly);
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: tar-ancalime

General: Agrees that talk with substance is necessary; suggests we elect leader; finds Eonwe’s assessment of his plan to be accurate; did not bring up plan fully conscious of flaws, wanted to generate discussion. He’s on my probably-innocent list right now. Though I disagreed with his plan, I can see the virtue in presenting a plan however flawed – they generate discussion. I’m not too concerned about him.

Meneltarmacil
Suspects: Lalaith; Lalaith, Kuru;
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes:

General: Suggests that Lalaith may be communicating with fellow wolves; disagrees with LMP’s plan. I’m not sure what to think about him. He’s in between.

tar-ancalime
Suspects: Ang, Bergil, Wayne
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: Ang

General: In-character comments; doesn’t see any reason to use LMP’s plan, that it’s basically just a conscious band-wagon. I am somewhat suspicious of her. I’d like to hear more of substance.

WaynetheGoblin
Suspects: Glirdan, Bergil
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: Bergil

General: Plain and simple, he’s brief and basically unhelpful. Definitely need to hear more from him, preferably something extensive.

Wilwarin538
Suspects: Wayne, Bergil
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: Bergil

General: Jesting accusations of everyone, declares herself innocent; defends herself to Bergil. She is also in between. I have only mild suspicions of her.

Overall:
Suspicious:
Ang
Glirdan
Menel
Tar-ancalime
Wayne
Wilwa

In the middle:
Eonwe
Lalaith

Not too suspicious:
Celuien
Kath
Kitanna
LMP

[Meneltarmacil]

I'm sorry about my not voting yesterDay, as I'd lost track of time. For the record, at that point I wanted to vote for Glirdan.

Anyhow, I'm wondering if LMP is a wolf as well. Anguirel mentioned that he was dropping hints (extremely obvious ones that just about anybody would be able to pick up on in my opinion) about being a Seer. I was quite surprised that he survived the Night having practically admitted that he was the Seer a couple of times. I find it likely that he is really a wolf. However, if he is actually the Seer, I would not want to see him lynched toDay, so I'd like to get some more evidence against him before I vote for him.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Firefoot, maybe a few others

[Kitanna]

Kuru? Dead? But how can that be?

Well, I’ll take a look at his posts, but first…

In an attempt to avoid homework I went back to review everything after Bergil’s death. I went through everyone’s votes and came up with the following.

Bergil: Was the first to vote and he voted for Wilwa on the basis that her previous post did not take as long as she had claimed. Perhaps this vote seemed rash to the other villagers and thus sealed his fate.

Glirdan: He voted for Eonwe and had been targeting Eonwe as a suspect in most of his posts. He said he wasn’t satisfied with Eonwe’s defense, but also that his vote was random for the most part.

Wayne: Was the first to vote for Bergil and he also voiced suspicions about Glirdan. It appears he found both their votes odd. Now he did vote early on which is not as wolfish as waiting until the last minute. But many had already voiced concerns about Bergil by this point so the wolfish thing to do would be to cast the first stone and hope others follow…and in this case they did.

Firefoot: Voted for Lalaith. She mentions a few people who do not sit right with her or who she’d like to hear more from. She says her vote for Lalaith is just a feeling.

Tar: Puts in a vote for Anguriel. She says:

In the end, his net of suspicion is cast just a little too wide. I've got an unsubstantiated, first-DAY feeling that he's trying to divert our attention from something.

Also casts her suspicions on lmp and calls for more weighted posts from Wayne, Wilwa, Lalaith and Bergil.

lmp: Had said earlier he was suspicious of tar and then voted for her. He says she does not sit right with him, but he suspects Bergil as well. Also mentions Anguriel and his odd comment about nothing truly worthwhile being said on DAY one.

Anguriel: Votes for Wayne. In his actual vote post he didn’t really give his reason, but he had stated earlier that he would probably vote for Wayne because of Wayne’s short, rare, and usually unhelpful comments.

Celuien: Next in line to vote for Wayne and judging by the time between her post and Anguriel’s it was probably not a cross-post and it defiantly put Wayne in the lead. She mentioned Bergil as well so whoever she voted for would have garnered a second vote and put them ahead. Take from that what you will.

Me: I voted Celuien in a somewhat random drawing. I listed people I thought should stay alive for their reasonable posts.

Kath: Puts in the second vote for Wilwa. She finds Wilwa overly defensive and I agree and I will get to that in a moment. Asks for more from Wayne or she will vote for him tomorrow.

Wilwa: Is angered by Bergil’s vote for her because she disagrees with his reason. Causing a three-way tie. (though it appears she cross-posted so to her it would only have been a two-way tie between Bergil and Wayne) But to return to her defense and attack on Bergil. She says of course votes will be random, but she doesn’t approve of the random reason and vote of Bergil. Her defense seems somewhat…er…I don’t know what word I’m looking for, but I do find it odd. It appears she voted for Bergil simply because he voted for her. Now that can mean she is a wolf and he hit the nail on the head or she was just an innocent upset over his reason of making her seem guilty to the village.

Eonwe: Votes for Kath. Just seems to be random and drew Kath out because of the number she was on the list. Says he has nothing for day one.

Lalaith: Breaks the tie and seals Bergil’s fate. Mentions a shaky faith in Eonwe. Now she says she feels bad for Wilwa after reading her plea and usually wolves try to distance themselves from their fellow wolves on day one. Of course since wolves expect us to think that of them it is possible that Lalaith was drawing wolven comrade Wilwa closer to because wolves normally separate themselves. Or perhaps an innocent piggybacking a wolf.

Menel and Kuru did not vote. Menel, perhaps a reason as to why?

My suspect list:

Wilwa~ For her defense and plea against Bergil’s vote. It seemed as though she was doing all she could to throw off suspicion of herself. Then of course her vote for Bergil.

Wayne~ As the first to cast a vote for Bergil it is possible he tried to get others to follow because several had mentioned Bergil’s vote as strange and his reason too random.

And a distant third Lalaith

Lalaith~ for what could be taken as an attempt to save wolf fellow Wilwa from the noose. Though that is not the best reason which is why she is far down from Wilwa and Wayne.

Now there are a few others I will be watching, but for right now I am more concerned with those three I listed. I'm going to review all that Kuru said and all that as already been said today and I'll come back in a bit.

[wilwarin538]

but she doesn’t approve of the random reason and vote of Bergil

It was actaully just the reason I didn't like, like I said if he had just voted for me and claimed it random I wouldn't have defended myself at all. But he posted a reason, a bad reason, that just didn't make sense to me.

So really I voted for him because of the reason, not the vote.

[Glirdan]

So really I voted for him because of the reason, not the vote.

Which makes you even more suspicious. That seems like a very Wolfish way to defend oneself just because of a stupid and quite obviously (well, now it is anyway) random reason and vote. You are really high on my suspicion list now.

Suspects: Celuien, Kath, tar-ancalime (apparently serious); LMP (later retracted), Eonwe, Bergil;

Ahh, see. Celuien, Kath and tar were all randomness. That was my first post with a lot of random acusations. So those three really account for nothing on my suspect list and I don't suspect them right now either.

Lalaith, I do remember you saying that now. Sorry about that. I just wanted to know if there was more to it than said.

Now, there are a few people who haven't spoken in awhile and it's like they dropped off the face of the earth. I'd really like to hear more from Celuien, tar and Wayne. Tar and Celuien haven't said anything which makes me very uncomfortable and Wayne came and said the usual. Please, I'd like to have more input from you Wayne.

[Eonwe]

ok im back and have again skimmed most of what has been said. one quick thing and then ill be back with more: could we all try to put the names of teh people and the post number down when we quote. that would make things alot easier.

meaning: [quote=whomever in post #whatever]

i like being clear and haveing things clear. it just helps be able to follow and desifer what you are saying...which is what we're here for, right?

[wilwarin538]

Which makes you even more suspicious. That seems like a very Wolfish way to defend oneself just because of a stupid and quite obviously (well, now it is anyway) random reason and vote. You are really high on my suspicion list now.

That's the thing though, it wasn't very obviously random, cause when you randomly vote for someone you don't leave a reason, cause its random.

Look if I keep dwelling on my reason for the vote it'll get me in more trouble then I'm already in. I made a mistake with Bergil, I admited that. I don't want to make anymore mistakes, two is my max. My reason for voting for him was stupid now that I look at the situation from another point of view. But at the time it did make sense. It was my Day 1 mistake.

This is the last time I'm defending myself against this. Don't want to keep having to say the same thing over and over again. I also realise how overly defensive this sounds, I'm just really tiered and stressed and, ya.

crossposted with Eonwe

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now, there are a few people who haven't spoken in awhile and it's like they dropped off the face of the earth. I'd really like to hear more from Celuien, tar and Wayne. Tar and Celuien haven't said anything which makes me very uncomfortable and Wayne came and said the usual. Please, I'd like to have more input from you Wayne.

Sorry. I just got here. The dull RL reason for my tardiness is that my department got several consults this afternoon that I had to help out with, putting me almost 2 hours behind schedule. But that's not what you really want to hear. So here's the Shamville reason. I was *cough* trying out some new varnish at my shop and lost track of time.

Kuru's death is a puzzle to me. As for the suggestion that he was the Seer, I didn't notice anything yesterday that would have made me think that at all.

I'll review the recent events and return with analysis later...

[tar-ancalime]

Tar and Celuien haven't said anything which makes me very uncomfortable

As much as I hate to do it, I fear that I must cry "longitude." Concern has been expressed because I have not yet added my voice to toDAY's discussion. As it happens, I do not live on either side of the Atlantic, nor do I live on the American side of the Pacific. This in particular made me laugh:

But look, there's a whole bunch of us arguing here, but there are some villagers that are kind of slipping under the radar. I need to go to bed now (and no corpses on my dais, Mr funny-business Undertaker) but I'm going to look at this all with a fresh eye tomorrow.

I noted the time of this post: as Lalaith was going to bed it was 6 AM here.

I've now finished reading toDAY's posts and it's just after 7 AM. Glirdan, I hope this assuages your fears.

Because I have missed out on so much discussion and analysis of DAY 1, though, perhaps I can be most helpful by starting to parse what has been said toDAY thus far (as far as Wilwa's post # 134).

It seems that there are varying theories as to why Kuru was the unfortunate victim of those among us with base wolvish impulses:

Did the wolves think he was the Seer? Lalaith thinks so.

I have had to think about this quite a bit. It seems to me that Lalaith may be right about this. At first it seemed illogical--Kuru didn't do anything yesterDAY that would indicate his being a Gifted. But then I realized--Kuru was behaving exactly as a smart Seer would early in the game: present, with smart posts that didn't really point any fingers. I never would have thought of this, being a relative novice in the detection of wolves, but I think Lalaith may have hit on something here.

Now, I recognize that I'm flirting with danger by agreeing with one who has been the object of so much suspicion already toDAY (in post 112 Wilwa already asserts that Lalaith is likely to get her vote; Kath suspects her, as does Glirdan; and she's been in quite a shoving match with lmp). I have to admit some uneasiness with Lalaith myself, despite what I think is sound reasoning regarding Kuru's death: who better to expound the correct theory than a wolf? By showing us her hand in this way (explaining the reasons for Kuru's death) she's being "helpful," which is so valuable this early in the game; could she be a clever wolf trying to clear herself by being a little forthcoming?

Which brings me to Wilwarin. She is the origin, at least toDAY, of the suspicions of Lalaith. She voices them so early and so vehemently as to give me pause. It's the opposite tactic: "never mind manoeuvres, just go straight at 'em." It's this early certainty and nothing else that makes me think Wilwa is worth watching for the rest of the DAY.

lmp has proposed another plan toDAY. It has not engendered as much debate as yesterDAY's, but it has provoked a shouting match with Lalaith and another, briefer one with Anguirel. Both lmp and Anguirel remain suspicious to me, but I find it highly unlikely that all three wolves are so embroiled with each other already. So to complicate things further, I would say that if Lalaith is a wolf, then lmp and Anguirel are not. If lmp is a wolf, then I would not put it past him and Anguirel to be playing a highly dangerous wolf-on-wolf game.

One more thought I'd like to address to lmp: he is suspicious of my "cool, even chilly" analysis. However, he repeatedly asks Lalaith to listen to what he says, not how he says it. I'd ask for the same courtesy from him.

I have to say that I'm less suspicious of Glirdan than some others seem to be--he appears to me to be working out his thoughts in plain sight, without any guile, and when he changes his mind it's because he's reexamined something. I actually find his posts a little refreshing and they seem to me to be very honest.

Firefoot and Kitanna have posted detailed analyses of yesterDAY's posting and voting; I'm thankful for both of these posts and since I tend to think that both of them are innocent, I eagerly await more posts like these.

So, at long last: I'm suspicious at this point of Lalaith, Wilwa, lmp, and Anguirel. Most suspicious: lmp and Anguirel together. Least suspicious: Lalaith. Unfortunately many of these suspicions are mutually exclusive, as I noted above: if I'm right about X, then I must be wrong about Y. Luckily I have most of a DAY to ruminate before casting a vote.

Glirdan, Firefoot, and Kitanna seem likely innocent to me.

As for the others, I'm going to wait and see before posting any opinions.

[Kitanna]

Ok so this is what I found through Kuru's posts. I'm not sure how helpful it is going to be for anyone.

In his first post he mentions Anguriel, Eonwe, and lmp. He says Anguriel is “acting strange” but clearly on the basis of Anguriel’s in character jester role. He mentions Eonwe and says he understands why Eonwe will probably not say much in the way of substance. And he then says lmp is acting strangely, but says nothing else in the post on the subject. Then he goes on to say everyone is just running up the numbers racket and he thinks that is a bad idea.

In his second post he brings up the idea of what would happen if everyone stayed silent.

He says nothing for a while and comes back with a mention to lmp’s post of picking a leader. He says it would have to be done early to work best, but agrees with Menel that it is a bad idea. Then puts emphasis on the fact lmp has been talking a lot.

Next post he says voting randomly based on people’s personalities is no use to the village and that is another bad thing about day one. Then he says he doesn’t suspect people who vote early because a wolf would be more inclined to vote late and try to cause a double-lynching. That is the last time Kuru speaks.

So what can we get from this? Kuru never outright accuses anyone so that is most likely why he was attacked.

[Celuien]

A few other quick thoughts before the review...

I just wanted to briefly answer the concern from yesterDAY about my not saying a whole lot. Truth was, I just wasn't sure of anything and didn't want to risk going overboard and swaying votes to innocents. As I said then, it will nag at me to err.

One more thing before I go. There are other reaons to be somewhat non-committal, at least early. One of which being giftedness. As has been pointed out, a Seer can't really afford to make mistakes, lest they be taken as dreams later after the identity is revealed. And the Ranger/Hunter might also want to play a game of being less vocal. If the Ranger's identity is suspected, defending someone too strongly could be taken as a sign of who would be guarded at night, making the role pointelss. LIkewise, if the Ranger is successful and defended the protected target strongly during the day, his/her identity might be revealed to the wolves - and wolves alone - as a result. A similar argument goes for the Hunter, who might not want the night target accidentally revealed in case the choice is correct and s/he wants the chance to take down a furry beast.

[Eonwe]

hmm anguriel has my suspicions because he seems to be out front allot. think... oh crap, can't do that . his posting has a subtle effect to gain him innocents.

ok lets see. as for voting, there is not much to be gained there right now. later on the voting record will because very important. especially to the seer. use it wisely.

i wouldn't give wilwa too much grief about her bergil kill. someone hads to die, and someone has to kill him. and do you really think a wolf would do something that blattant. why not just let someone else do the job for her?

of course, we could say "the wolf would expect us to think that way, and so will do exactly that!"

where is that doctorate in game theory when you need it, eh?

[Glirdan]

Why thank you tar for expressing concern towards my fears and assuaging them. You to Celuien.

Now, after your lengthy post tar (which was well thought out by the way ), I'm inclined to believe that you are an innocent. Either that, or a very clever Wolf. The first seems more likely to me. Kitanna and Firefoot have not had any suspicion from me and for the next little while, they won't. We need people like them and Lmp here to help us sort out our thoughts. It would be really stupid of us to lynch them at this point in time.

I'm now a little more suspicious of Wilwa, due to theof the defensivness of her post earlier, but she's not as suspicious as Lalaith or Wayne. So I'll probably end up voting for one of them unless something new arises.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

lmp has proposed another plan toDAY. It has not engendered as much debate as yesterDAY's, but it has provoked a shouting match with Lalaith and another, briefer one with Anguirel. Both lmp and Anguirel remain suspicious to me, but I find it highly unlikely that all three wolves are so embroiled with each other already. So to complicate things further, I would say that if Lalaith is a wolf, then lmp and Anguirel are not. If lmp is a wolf, then I would not put it past him and Anguirel to be playing a highly dangerous wolf-on-wolf game.

I agree that perhaps one wolf is hiding in that mix, but I would say only one. So if lmp is a wolf Anguriel and Lalaith are not, or if Anguriel is a wolf lmp and Lalaith are not. Out of the three I am least suspicious of lmp.

Now I'd like to address Wayne again. Lalaith and Wilwa both gave reasons as to their votes for Bergil, you have not. Wilwa and Lalaith have been defending/listing suspects, you have not.

I dont know why the wolves would kill him either it dosent make sense. The only thing he said was about the voting. I will look back at peoples post and say my suspicions soon.

That is all we have for you today. I hope you come back soon and answer some questions. I would like to know why you voted for Bergil, why you found him to be suspicious. You have been asked by several villagers to explain more in your posts, please do so.

Now, in the next few hours there's a good chance I will have to vote. Hopefully I can put it off until I get up in the morning, but that all depends on how much work I get done tonight. So I'm going to reread everything once again and come back in a few hours with my findings and/or a vote.

[tar-ancalime]

Menel, I'd like to hear more:

Why did you want to vote for Glirdan? Was it random? Do you still find him suspicious?

Sorry to pester you like this--but if you're going to proffer an intended vote it seems you should be subject to the same kind of scrutiny as the rest of us.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

It seemed to me that you were saying anyone who doesn't fall into line with your plans would be in trouble. If that's not the way you meant it, fine, I accept that.

I was saying no more and no less than that lateness of responding or voting due to time zone, is not a sufficiently valid reason for innocence. Just because your time zone "makes" you respond or vote late, does not make you NOT a werewolf. (Sorry for the potentially confusing double negative, but it conveys my precise meaning.)

[Celuien]

Synopsis of the remaining villagers, in no particular order:

1. WaynetheGoblin - quite annoying. He has said almost nothing, other than a general "I'm here and I suspect so-and-so." Yesterday, suspected and voted Bergil because of his random vote. Has not returned with his promised suspect list yet. I'm at a loss to determine whether or not he is a wolf. But even if innocent, I'd place him higher on my short list of lynching candidates because of the frustratingly small amount he says.
2. Glirdan - as Firefoot said, all over the place (sorry!). I'm not sure that this makes him a wolf, but it does attract my attention. He returns to my watch list for today.
3. Eonwe - difficult for me to peg (pun intended). Suspects Ang for being vocal. Watching him more because I'm unsure what to think than from any real suspicion.
4. Meneltarmacil - waiting for more input today. Yesterday, he offered good input to lmp's plan, so I'm not particularly inclined to suspect him yet. I'm interesting to hear more about his suspicions of Glirdan.
5. tar-ancalime - so far today, has offered good input. I suspected her yesterday merely on that infallible quality of intuition. Right now, she doesn't look suspicious.
6. Wilwarin538 - I happen to agree with her on several points (see below). Another villager offering decent arguments, so I don't want to attack her now.
7. Kitanna - I do not currently suspect her since she has offered reasonable, helpful analysis. I personally agree with her interpretation of Kuru's death after looking at his posts from yesterday.
8. littlemanpoet - very, very odd. Lead-bottomed hints from yesterday suggesting Seer status could be either 1) a bold Seer coming into the open 2) an innocent attempting to mask the Seer, 3) a wolf masquerading as the Seer, or 4) misinterpretation of figures of speech by villagers which he chose to let go. Option 3 seems a bit too risky for a real wolf since it would bring the Seer's eye directly on him. I doubt lmp-wolf would use that tactic. I'd rather not push the issue too much in case he is the Seer. I will be watching him closely, however.
9. Lalaith - suspicious. Offers the theory that Kuru was the Seer early on, although there really wasn't too much there to suggest that, other than his being non-committal. I really don't think that's enough reason to declare a Seer, since a few of us were also vague yesterday. But it could be a distraction - or the wolves' genuine opinion. At the same time, she was the tiebreaker yesterday, although that doesn't mean quite as much with rules preventing multiple lynchings. Very odd back and forth with lmp this morning that I would like to see explained.
10. Firefoot - probable innocent. Sound analysis of events, seems genuinely heplful.
11. Kath - also a probable innocent, as far as I can tell. Same reasons as Firefoot.
12. Anguirel - suspects lmp greatly. I personally don't find him suspicious now. LMP has been behaving strangely, and I'm inclined to think his attack on lmp is motivated by genuine suspicion rather than a frame up. The vehemence of his attacks is classic Ang, so I don't really want to take it as a sign of guilt. But I will, unfortunately, need take a closer look at him today as a result of all this bickering.

As for lmp's plan for today, it seems to be a reasonable enough way to keep wolves from manipulating the votes. Unless, of course, they wind up strongly influencing the straw vote and manage to use to to keep the focus off of them. The failsafe of using a majority to change the selections seems okay, but could still be easily manipulated. I would prefer to follow the departed Kuru's advice and remain flexible.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

As much as I hate to do it, I fear that I must cry "longitude." Concern has been expressed because I have not yet added my voice to toDAY's discussion. As it happens, I do not live on either side of the Atlantic, nor do I live on the American side of the Pacific.

I noted the time of this post: as Lalaith was going to bed it was 6 AM here.

I've now finished reading toDAY's posts and it's just after 7 AM. Glirdan, I hope this assuages your fears.

Because I have missed out on so much discussion and analysis of DAY 1, though, perhaps I can be most helpful by starting to parse what has been said toDAY thus far (as far as Wilwa's post # 134).

It seems that there are varying theories as to why Kuru was the unfortunate victim of those among us with base wolvish impulses:

Did the wolves think he was the Seer? Lalaith thinks so.

I have had to think about this quite a bit. It seems to me that Lalaith may be right about this. At first it seemed illogical--Kuru didn't do anything yesterDAY that would indicate his being a Gifted. But then I realized--Kuru was behaving exactly as a smart Seer would early in the game: present, with smart posts that didn't really point any fingers. I never would have thought of this, being a relative novice in the detection of wolves, but I think Lalaith may have hit on something here.

Now, I recognize that I'm flirting with danger by agreeing with one who has been the object of so much suspicion already toDAY (in post 112 Wilwa already asserts that Lalaith is likely to get her vote; Kath suspects her, as does Glirdan; and she's been in quite a shoving match with lmp). I have to admit some uneasiness with Lalaith myself, despite what I think is sound reasoning regarding Kuru's death: who better to expound the correct theory than a wolf? By showing us her hand in this way (explaining the reasons for Kuru's death) she's being "helpful," which is so valuable this early in the game; could she be a clever wolf trying to clear herself by being a little forthcoming?

Which brings me to Wilwarin. She is the origin, at least toDAY, of the suspicions of Lalaith. She voices them so early and so vehemently as to give me pause. It's the opposite tactic: "never mind manoeuvres, just go straight at 'em." It's this early certainty and nothing else that makes me think Wilwa is worth watching for the rest of the DAY.

lmp has proposed another plan toDAY. It has not engendered as much debate as yesterDAY's, but it has provoked a shouting match with Lalaith and another, briefer one with Anguirel. Both lmp and Anguirel remain suspicious to me, but I find it highly unlikely that all three wolves are so embroiled with each other already. So to complicate things further, I would say that if Lalaith is a wolf, then lmp and Anguirel are not. If lmp is a wolf, then I would not put it past him and Anguirel to be playing a highly dangerous wolf-on-wolf game.

One more thought I'd like to address to lmp: he is suspicious of my "cool, even chilly" analysis. However, he repeatedly asks Lalaith to listen to what he says, not how he says it. I'd ask for the same courtesy from him.

I have to say that I'm less suspicious of Glirdan than some others seem to be--he appears to me to be working out his thoughts in plain sight, without any guile, and when he changes his mind it's because he's reexamined something. I actually find his posts a little refreshing and they seem to me to be very honest.

Firefoot and Kitanna have posted detailed analyses of yesterDAY's posting and voting; I'm thankful for both of these posts and since I tend to think that both of them are innocent, I eagerly await more posts like these.

So, at long last: I'm suspicious at this point of Lalaith, Wilwa, lmp, and Anguirel. Most suspicious: lmp and Anguirel together. Least suspicious: Lalaith. Unfortunately many of these suspicions are mutually exclusive, as I noted above: if I'm right about X, then I must be wrong about Y. Luckily I have most of a DAY to ruminate before casting a vote.

Glirdan, Firefoot, and Kitanna seem likely innocent to me.

As for the others, I'm going to wait and see before posting any opinions.

This has got to be the cleverest bit of wiley coyote analysis I've seen from a werewolf in a long while. It shows the heavily veiled, convoluted thinking of a werewolf. Notice how tar early puts forth Lalaith as suspicious, then retracts her. Very subtle, very tricksy. And tar, for whom I am quickly gaining a most deep respect, your cool analysis and mine are not the same. It's hard to point out to the exact difference, but I think it is this: you are doing too well at thinking the thoughts of the werewolves for them. Whereas I'm trying to imagine what a werewolf might be thinking, you're succeeding. That's extremely suspicious. The very mutual exclusivity of your purported suspicions renders them so confusing that it's impossible to know what to think, which is an additionally handy tool in the hands of a werewolf.

I'm not ready to state my chief suspect list, but you can trust that tar ancalime is on it.

[Eonwe]

hmmmm. LMP i read teh post through and didn't find much of anything. maybe im just naive. tar doens't retract lalaith, as far as i can see. she just says that lalaith is the least suspicious of the three.

as for being confusing, its werewolf, my friend!

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

hmmmm. LMP i read teh post through and didn't find much of anything. maybe im just naive. tar doens't retract lalaith, as far as i can see. she just says that lalaith is the least suspicious of the three.

as for being confusing, its werewolf, my friend!

Yes, you do have a point. I think it's if you read the post presuming guilt, or innocence. That's the trouble with werewolves. tar ancalime's rather courteous request for Menel to speak more in defense of himself, actually is serving to lessen my suspicion of her. And yes, that's reading way way deep between the lines, but there are werewolves about, you know.

Time to go dig some graves.

[tar-ancalime]

And tar, for whom I am quickly gaining a most deep respect, your cool analysis and mine are not the same.

Oh,

lmp,

really! While I appreciate the compliment, I fail to see any "cool analysis" from you at all. Our posts have been very different, true, but it's not due to any base motives on my part, I can assure you. The difference is this:

My posts have been the result of ruminations on the comments of others: the "wait and see, then share my thoughts" approach.

Your posts have been deliberately inflammatory. You submit these plans (and I do think you're putting them out solely as objects of discussion: to get us talking about your plans instead of about you,) then wait for the inevitable arguments to ensue. Just toDAY you're giving as good as you got with both Lalaith and Anguirel, merely arguing rather than adding anything new. To tell you the truth, it's this argumentative quality that you've displayed from the start that is at the real root of all my suspicions of you. If you hadn't argued with so many people already, you'd be...maybe not pure as the driven, but much less noteworthy in my eyes.

I utterly regret that in this post I'm doing much the same by rising to your so obviously proffered bait, but there it is. At least you have pushed me out into the open with the root of my suspicions of you, and even caused me to think through them more carefully.

I'll be back later with more analysis, and you can be sure that it will be just as cool, just as reasoned, and just as honest as before. I'm still pondering the lmp, Anguirel, Lalaith triangle, not to mention Wilwa's early certainty, and I don't want to let lmp's obvious disdain for my approach to cloud my judgement.

[Glirdan]

Why did you want to vote for Glirdan? Was it random? Do you still find him suspicious?

I'd like to hear the same thing from Menel. There has to be more to it than just what you posted yesterDay.

I agree that perhaps one wolf is hiding in that mix, but I would say only one. So if lmp is a wolf Anguriel and Lalaith are not, or if Anguriel is a wolf lmp and Lalaith are not. Out of the three I am least suspicious of lmp.

I'd have to agree completely with Kitanna on this one. Lmp seems least suspicious of the three, yet that doesn't remove him from suspicion. I'm more suspicious of Lalaith than I am of the other two, and even more suspicious of Wayne, yet I might give him the benefit of the doubt for today and vote Lalaith instead. There's not enough information for one to go off to pin anything on Wayne where as with Lalaith, there is enough.

I have to vote in the next hour or so so I'd really like to hear something from Wayne before then.

[Firefoot]

LMP, I do think you might be on to something. tar's post is very cool, almost too smooth, now that I read it again. A brilliant example of taking others' ideas and running with them, expanding, being "helpful." She has now moved up on my suspect list.

So, if tar was a wolf, who else might be wolves? At most one of Lalaith, LMP, Ang, and Wilwa would be a wolf, quite possibly none. Even though she states Lalaith is the least suspicious of those to her, she spends a lot of time in her post going over them. LMP, I am not too concerned about. Possibly Ang or Wilwa, but nothing certain there.

Firefoot and Kitanna have posted detailed analyses of yesterDAY's posting and voting; I'm thankful for both of these posts and since I tend to think that both of them are innocent, I eagerly await more posts like these.

Knowing my own innocence (I don't expect any of you to trust me on this, of course), I would guess that if tar is a wolf, Kitanna is not. This fits with my earlier statement that Kitanna seemed pretty safe to me (still does, after going through toDay's posts). If there was a wolf among her stated innocents, I think it would be Glirdan, but I'm becoming less suspicious of him as the Day goes on. This is not an in-depth statement, I haven't studied much too closely yet, but a surface-level feeling.

That leaves Wayne, Eonwe, Menel, Kath, and Celuien. Even if tar weren't a wolf, I don't think I'd be surprised if a wolf came off this list, and if she is a wolf, I think one almost certainly would. Kath and Celuien have thus far seemed pretty innocent to me. Wayne, I don't know how anyone could get any kind of reading from him. Eonwe and Menel are both in between very suspicious and the halfway point.

So currently my suspicion list looks something like this:

Tar
Menel
Eonwe
Wayne
Ang
Glirdan
Wilwa

Note: this has been largely off the cuff and unresearched. I still have not gone over Day 2 in depth. I will be doing that before I go to bed, and very likely voting in a similar time-frame as yesterDay.

Cross-posting with a lot of people...

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

Your posts have been deliberately inflammatory. You submit these plans (and I do think you're putting them out solely as objects of discussion: to get us talking about your plans instead of about you,) then wait for the inevitable arguments to ensue. Just toDAY you're giving as good as you got with both Lalaith and Anguirel, merely arguing rather than adding anything new. To tell you the truth, it's this argumentative quality that you've displayed from the start that is at the real root of all my suspicions of you. If you hadn't argued with so many people already, you'd be...maybe not pure as the driven, but much less noteworthy in my eyes.

You have cleared yourself in my eyes. Thank you. Moving on to the next suspect....

Edit: Cross posted with Firefoot, and rethinking yet again.

[Firefoot]

Okay, I've gone through the Day's posts so far, focusing on the people on my suspicion list. I don't want to get too far in this without giving some of those other people not on my list another look, but there are definitely other things I should be doing now *coughstudyingcough*.

Anguirel – he starts out the Day stating why Kuru was a good choice for the wolves; I agree very much with these statements. He also found LMP very suspicious – not without a fair reason, though I myself do not find LMP particularly suspicious (he could be pulling a blinder on me, I don’t know; he’s one of those people who I tend to trust until they prove otherwise, whereas most people are the other way around. Probably not a good thing, I know). In his next post he continues to support his suspicion of LMP, largely on his opposite approach to Kuru’s. He is becoming less suspicious to me, mostly because he has been very consistent. He is still on my watch list, but really my suspicion list. Unfortunately, I probably won’t be able to study any more posts he might make before I vote due to horrible time constraints as the Day wears on.

Eonwe – He has not been very substantive today at all, and has done nothing to alleviate my suspicion of him. He posts just enough not to be accused of not posting much, but he doesn’t say very much. He’s edging up on my suspicion list.

Glirdan – He thinks a wolf probably voted for Kuru or Bergil – that is, Wayne, Wilwa, and Lalaith. I find this as likely as not – voting was too spread out. He is somewhat random, though there are threads of consistency running through his posts. I think he’s more likely to be a scattered villager at this point, rather than a wolf. Unless something big happens, my vote will not be going to him today.

Menel – He says he was planning on voting for Glirdan yesterday. He’s a little suspicious of LMP. He has posted a total of once today; I definitely want to hear more from him. He has moved from in-between to mildly suspicious, if nothing else because he says little. I haven’t seen anything say that he is innocent, so he’s edging guilty.

tar-ancalime – I’m really not sure about her. Her Day 1 posts don’t make me suspicious, but her Day 2 posts do, especially that one that LMP pointed out. She’s smart, and I wouldn’t put a whole lot past her. She could possibly receive my vote. If she’s innocent, then her reasoning seems entirely sound, but there’s something wrong about the tone. Definite suspicion.

Wayne – Same…

Wilwa – Expressed early on intention to vote for Lalaith – I find this rather hasty, but she has decent reasons for it. She is coming down on my suspicion list; she hasn’t done anything today to raise any flags. I highly doubt I will be voting for her.

In about eight hours I'll be coming back to post briefly and likely vote. My vote will almost definitely come off one of the people I have highlighted as suspicious in this post.

And a plea, for voting: I don't think it will really be starting up for quite some time yet, and it doesn't seem likely to be a spread out as yesterday, but let's not do that again. Voting can be one of the most useful tools, but yesterDay's was no help at all. Let's try to keep voting confined to about four-five suspects, okay? They don't have to be set suspects as LMP was trying to organize earlier, but don't just vote for a random person that doesn't have any votes if there are already several candidates. Half (or more than half) of the citizens of the village should not be getting votes. It makes it entirely too easy for wolves to hide.

[Glirdan]

I'm afraid I have to cast my vote now because I won't get another chance to.

++Lalaith

For reasons stated before. The fact that she has a Jackal/Hyde attitude just doesn't settle with me.

She was the one I was most suspicious of and as I said, I decided to give Wayne the benefit of the doubt. I hope with this vote I don't condemn an innocent to death.

Now I must be off to my grave for some well needed rest.

[Kitanna]

Curse school and the fact it will keep me away for almost all of tomorrow and there shall be no time for a decent post. So it is time for a vote.

I find all this tar talk interesting. I never would have thought twice about her post if lmp had not brought it to light as far too cool and calculating. So clearly she needs a good deal of watching. And I was very swayed by lmp and Firefoot's analysis of her. But I'm not sure I really want to vote for her.

I have suspicions of Wilwa, Lalaith, and Tar all equally now. I'd throw Wayne in there too because of his unhelpful posts as well. So that leaves me with four to vote for.

Wayne is an easy vote and he is an unhelpful character which is a plus to getting rid of him.

Wilwa defended and defended and defended herself when it came to her vote for Bergil, keeps coming back to it to defend herself. I felt her intial defense would have been fitting, but yet she continued to go on with it. Then she goes after Lalaith.

Lalaith seems to have gained suspicion as a Jykle/Hyde of the village. She is also the one who called for the village to talk much. Talking a lot = Confusion and confusion = wolf breeding ground. She is involved in the lmp-Anguriel war.

Tar moved up on my suspect list due to lmp and when he pointed out her post. I'm not sure exactly what to think, but I will defiantly be reading her posts more carefully from now on.

So how to vote? I think...

++ Wilwa

I think perhaps Lalaith and Wilwa may be wolves working together. Don't ask me why...just a gut feeling. Wilwa's suspicions of Lalaith are on her moods and tone in her posts. Well, that is alright, but somehow I feel...well I'm not sure. They just do not seem right. Then her defense of herself, even on day one does not sit right in my mind. Perhaps I'm losing my mind...

So there's my vote. Tomorrow I will take a much harder look at tar and Lalaith, but if Wayne does not provide substance in his posts then I may just go after him out of sheer annoyance.

[Anguirel]

LMP, all this heavily dropped "lynch me and you'll regret it" nonsense implicates you still further. A Seer does not monopolise the village. A Seer does not not take obvious control of events until he has accrued a lot of information and it's worth the risk.

Simply put, Seers should be neither heard nor seen. You've accomplished both. If you are the Seer, your life expectancy is already no longer than a mayfly's. Any wolves worth their whiskers will have picked up on your heavy, but dreadfully premature, hints by now. That's why I'm speaking honestly. I genuinely think that if you're the Seer, (and I see that as unlikely, because I thought you were supposed to be cunning and skilful) your mileage is run.

But if you're a wolf, you're hoping to pacify a village that's starting to turn on you. Well done. Many villagers seem to think you beyond consideration already. I take that as a sign of your guilt in itself. Where wise men make assumptions and jump to false conclusions, there it is the fool's task to point out their mistakes. Trusting you automatically purely because you're saying enough words to drown us all in is one.

I think that you're also hoping to draw out the real Seer. Our real soothsayer will be wise to that, I'm sure.

If you are not a wolf, LMP, you will die tonight. You're a dead investment. A sunk equity. A safe vote.

You keep trying to put yourself in the clear by babbling about how there are three wolves, not one. I am aware of that. I also know enough of you to know that you will be the ringleader, the organiser, the captain and commander; and I will not allow you to bluster your way out of the net.

Though incidentally I'm inclined to thinktar-ancalime and wilwa to be your fanged backing. Perhaps we should lynch wilwa to test you. She seems to have an interesting faith in your abilities.

[Lalaith]

I think it is best to assume we are dealing with clever wolves. At this stage in the game, clever wolves will be going all out to kill the person they think might be the Seer. That is obvious. Therefore, the belief, voiced by myself, tar-a and Anguirel, that the wolves thought Kuru might be the Seer, is actually an obvious statement.
(Celuien, I think you misunderstood me, I never thought Kuru was the Seer. I have my own theories on that, which I'm certainly not going to discuss openly when wolves are listening.)

So what else do wolves do? Firstly, unlike the rest of us, they know exactly who is innocent. So one way to spot a wolf is by looking for people who seem to be theorising and searching as frantically as the rest of us for clues, but who then don't seem to follow through - whose conclusions seem either unreasonable or sloppy. This is why I was giving LMP a hard time yesterday and this morning, his insistence on people following his plan in accordance with his own timezone seemed unreasonable and therefore wolvish.

Another thing wolves do is to work out a strategy at night to avoid any of their number being lynched. (Of course, there are exceptions to this, when one of their number is the object of general suspicion and the others need to distance themselves.) The best way for wolves to protect each other is by starting a bandwagon against an innocent they think is likely to be an acceptable suspect to the rest of the villagers. This is where people like Wayne come in very handy for wolves, which is why I was quite reluctant to vote for him yesterday. It is also why I feel very suspicious of wilwa's abrupt attack on me this morning - an early start of a bandwagon, I wondered - although I know she has time constraints which could explain her hastiness.

Now, someone is inevitably going to come along and say "oh look how much Lalaith knows about wolves, how suspicious". But that sort of comment would be silly and disingenuous - without wanting to break spawn's rules, we are all veterans here.

As for the points discussed so far today.
I like a lot of tar-a says, although it doesn't necessarily absolve her in my eyes. If Ang and LMP were both wolves, (lord help us!) this sort of bickering is very likely how they would play it.
It is strange and ironic that Glirdan, who was my chief suspect yesterday, votes for me today.

I don't want to make anymore mistakes, two is my max

Wilwa, my dear, getting me lynched will be definitely be your second mistake.

[littlemanpoet]

I've slept on things in a hole I dug
and almost drowned because it rained.
Those holes really are quite snug,
just need to figure how to get them drained.

There are some people who are playing too sloppy to be werewolves. Werewolves would take more care with what they say because they have more invested. The sloppy people betray their innocence, so to speak, by not caring what people think of what they say. On these grounds, I don't think Lalaith is a werewolf. The same reasoning seems to implicate Anguirel's innocence. This does happen to go for me too, but I'll leave that to othe judgement of the rest of you.

There are a few people who seem to be taking great care as to their choice of words. These are Wilwa & tar ancalime. One of these two will probably get my vote, but that's not a guarantee; just in case someone wants to later accuse me (should I survive the Day or Night) of not being consistent.

Whereas Eonwe & Kitanna cast the most suspicious votes yesterDay, as I reckon it, they don't seem particularly feral, especially not Kitanna.

I was tempted to suggest that we lynch Lalaith tonight on the strength of how many people suspect her, as well as on the fact that she was the swing vote. My rationale was that if she turned out to be a werewolf, it would be easy to spot whom she had been trying to protect, and that if she didn't turn out to be one, then we're no worse off than we might be lynching someone else, as long as she's not gifted. But I really doubt that she's a werewolf.

And Lalaith & Anguirel, I'm not writing this to allay your suspicions of me. Suspect away! I'm just putting forth my thinking, in hopes of helping us all to a good decision toDay.

[littlemanpoet]

Okay, sure, I'm the seer, ol' buddy Ang.

Real Seer, don't come out and say I'm not the seer, because obviously I'm not. Do the wise thing. Thank you.

[Anguirel]

Then why, LMP, oh why, did you go on about sleeping arrangements and dreaming? Why did you stress that we'd regret lynching you?

No, I still think you're a desperate wolf; and I believe that either Wilwa or tar-ancalime-not both-growls alongside you.

However, confronting LMP's Seer mask was a reckless manouevre, and though as it happens I don't think he is the Seer, had he been it might have scuppered us. Aside from myself, Menel pointed out LMP's Seerish nuances. This implicates Menel and I strongly, and I am tempted to go for Menel, my initial Day One suspect-in the event of LMP's innocence, he could very well be a wolf.

I am suspicious of the growing movement against Wilwa-just too obvious-but I am also prepared to clear the other combatant Lalaith, partly because she is not acquiescing to LMP's imposition of his own innocence. If I'm wrong, she should also be examined. So I have two partially formed triumvirates:

If LMP is guilty

LMP, tar-ancalime?, wilwa?, Firefoot?

If he's innocent

Menel, Lalaith, Firefoot? and admittedly, for the rest of you, Anguirel?

The obvious solution? Use LMP as the touchstone. I give his intelligence enough credit to doubt that he's Gifted; he's either an extremely dangerous wolf or a villager whose death would give us a lot of information. It's a win-win situation for us.

I've thrown Firefoot in on both sides because I'm scared witless of her guile.

[Firefoot]

I can't say I really understand all this talk of LMP being the seer - it seems pretty obvious to me that he is not, or why would he be saying the things he is? A seer needs to be much more subtle than that. I would be shocked if LMP is the Seer.

That being said, I also do not think that LMP is a wolf - it seems like a stupid plan to deliberately draw attention to yourself by "faking" as the Seer. People almost unfailingly get lynched for threatening that "you'll be sorry if you lynch me." I would expect something a little more sophisticated from LMP - though I suppose it could be a bluff. I just don't think it is, though.

However, confronting LMP's Seer mask was a reckless manouevre, and though as it happens I don't think he is the Seer, had he been it might have scuppered us. Aside from myself, Menel pointed out LMP's Seerish nuances. This implicates Menel and I strongly, and I am tempted to go for Menel, my initial Day One suspect-in the event of LMP's innocence, he could very well be a wolf.

Yes. If you think someone is a seer, good grief, don't say that! Let's just point our most valuable asset out to the wolves, why don't we?

The prime lynching suspects at the moment seem to be Lalaith, Wilwa, LMP, and tar-ancalime. I don't want to vote for Lalaith; I don't feel very suspicious of her at all right now. I won't be voting for LMP, either - especially since I will very likely be voting in the next hour, or trying to cut it very close. I also am not terribly suspicious of Wilwa right now. That would leave tar. My vote will likely be going to her at this point - either that or Menel or Eonwe, but neither of them seem to be getting much support as far as lynching goes.

[tar-ancalime]

Though incidentally I'm inclined to thinktar-ancalime and wilwa to be your fanged backing.

That's where you're wrong, Anguirel dah-ling. If I were a wolf, I would be NO ONE's backup singer.

Gallows humor aside, I'm quite interested in your recent posts. First this:

Perhaps we should lynch wilwa to test you. She seems to have an interesting faith in your abilities.

Then this:

The obvious solution? Use LMP as the touchstone. I give his intelligence enough credit to doubt that he's Gifted; he's either an extremely dangerous wolf or a villager whose death would give us a lot of information. It's a win-win situation for us.

A callous disregard for the life of a (quite possibly) innocent villager, especially in regard to Wilwa, but then, someone in the village has got to have the stomach for it, eh?

I don't think that lynching one of your hypothetical hench-wolves would tell us anything about lmp, who does seem to be your main target toDAY. I say this not only because I'm one of them, but because really, where would it get us? Unless Wilwa really is a wolf, of course, and then we've got one in the bag...

I give lmp a lot of credit, and I don't see him going to pieces over ANY lynching, especially one that you overtly say is to "test" him. If he's the one you want, he's the one you should go after (as you seem to recognize in the second post that I quoted).

I have to say that my suspicion of you is fading as this DAY progresses. I'm now inclined to think that you're really trying to parse this out with the rest of us, and that (like me) your manner sometimes gets you in trouble.

(Sorry--this is a two-part post--the above is mostly directed to Anguirel, while the below is a gathering of thoughts before voting.)

I'm also less wary of Lalaith than I was earlier--I have to admit that I may have been swayed a little by Wilwa's early vehemence. Also, having now been on the receiving end of one of lmp's less-trusting posts myself, I can understand the impulse to argue with him a lot better than I could before.

As for lmp himself, I am puzzled. He seems to have two faces: one accusatory, argumentative, and unyielding (as in the discussion of time zones yesterDAY); and the other genuinely puzzled, bemused, willing to change his mind, and trying to save our poor village. Lalaith has been characterized as a Jekyll/Hyde villager, but I think the appellation is more apt for our undertaker.

Wilwa is growing more and more suspicious to me as the DAY progresses. Early vitriol against Lalaith followed by nothing at all (except repeated defenses of her vote, which I'm tempted to attribute to the repeated questionings of her vote). I have a few hours yet before I'll have to cast my vote, and I do hope to see some more from her before I do so.

I would also like to see more substance from Kath. Her posts have been few but incisive, just the kind of thing you might expect from a wary wolf.

Wayne, Menel, where are you? We need you!

So, my suspicions have changed somewhat since my (evidently itself suspicious) post of this morning. I now suspect:

(strongly)
lmp
wilwa

(very mildly, mostly due to lack of input, which may or may not be fair)
Kath
Wayne
Menel

Anguirel and Lalaith can consider themselves off the hook, at least for the moment.

Unless something changes either Wilwa (for extreme vitriol) or lmp (for unnecessary pot-stirring and possible smoke-and-mirror act) is likely to get my vote.