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#121 | ||
Overshadowed Eagle
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: The north-west of the Old World, east of the Sea
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Thanks for the vote tallies, BG! Looking at how we (in)Glorious Dead voted:
On Day 1, two of us voted for Form, and one for Legate (& one for me). Legate is now the only surviving Form voter from Day 1. On Day 2, both BG and Nog voted... Form. Okay, seriously: Form can't possibly be a wolf, right? No pack would allow a Day Three where 4 of the 6 votes cast by the dead were for one of their own. Right? Looking at the voting times: that Nog-wagon really did come out of nowhere in terms of actual votes. They were all in the final nine minutes! Checking both days, the names that pop out as 'late & secured an innocent kill' are:
I feel like Rikae's early vote is actually a point in their favour. Would a wolf set themselves up as the instigator of multiple innocent lynches? --- Something Mac said struck me as suspicious: Quote:
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#122 |
Overshadowed Eagle
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Um.
Looking back over that last post: what if we have a pack who are deliberately looking wolfish? Because everyone has spent a lot of time saying 'That suspicious behaviour is too obvious for a [wolf/seer]!', and then focussing on the less-obviously-suspicious people. So a defense of 'Form can't be a wolf, why would the wolves kill all his voters?' and 'Rikae can't be a wolf, why would a wolf position themselves at the head of a lynch?' would probably hold up, at least for a day or so. And... a day or so is all they need. If they can avoid losing a wolf toDay, and get a clean kill toNight, they'll be at 5 evil, 5 good, and all they need is the Cobbler to identify themselves and mass-vote for a single candidate. As we saw last game with Brinn's virtuoso performance as Seer, a 'reveal and we win' message is a very plausible way to pull off a victory. This would work best if the wolves have a good idea of who the Cobbler is, since whichever pack member makes the request would presumably(?) attract immediate votes from all the innocents, so they'd have to time it well. Quick maths-check for if they fail: Day Four: 4w, 1c, 5i -One wolf posts to say 'Cobbler, vote for X if and only if I have not already received 5 votes'. Wolf receives 5 votes; Cobbler stays hidden. Wolf leaves instructions for Cobbler to vote for the same villager ASAP the next day (assuming one innocent and no wolves die in the night). Wolf lynched Night 5: 3w, 1c, 5i -Innocent night-killed. Day 5: 3w, 1c, 4i -Cobbler votes immediately after DL for the designated target. Wolves mass vote. Innocent lynched, because they got 4 votes first. Night 6: 3w, 1c, 3i -Innocent night-killed. Might even be the Cobbler, as least-likely to be BH protected. Wolf victory. It's a plan that could definitely be derailed by a Gifted, but if it worked... come to think of it, they don't even need the Cobbler: all they need on Day 4 is for the first vote cast to be innocent-on-innocent, and they can mass-vote and win. So we really need to kill a wolf toDay, because otherwise it's all up to the Gifted. hS |
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#123 |
Overshadowed Eagle
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Since we have an unbreakable majority here by now (or at least, once we hit 4 evildoers the Seer will almost certainly be outed anyway), I can safely say this: Greenie #357 for Seer?
She lists only three people as not suspicious (Nilp, Rikae, and Shasta), and uses the word 'read' of all three - and not of anyone else. They're all reasonable Seer targets: I assume the Seer would focus on people who might be undercover wolves, rather than looking at the obvious suspects. (I would guess Nilp for N1 dream, as if he's a wolf, you're never going to guess on D1.) She closes by saying she wants to read (that word again!) through Lommy today, and highlights that she's 'under the radar' - the same criteria I think she used for her other dreams. If I'm right, then we unfortunately don't have any Seer-confirmed wolves yet, which explains a lot! It also means we might see Greenie here sooner than later - after all, if even I can spot it... (Could she be fake-Seer hinting? Maybe, but risky: she's 'cleared' a quarter of a village which is 1/3 wolves, the odds of hitting one of them and invalidating her 'reads' are... um... about 50%, I believe.) hS |
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#124 | |
Overshadowed Eagle
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#125 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalė
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Quote:
In that case I'm actually curious no-one in the Living Thread seems to be too bothered about it... Secondly: we might be witnessing a Seer reveal soonish - and possibly a counter-reveal by the NW. Especially if you have it right and it is indeed Greenie who is the Seer with three non-wolf Dreams. If the villagers vote the right way (so don't get fooled by a rival-reveal), they could then organize protection to her for the next Night and have a fighting chance. Okay, I clearly need to look at the numbers.
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#126 |
Flame of the Ainulindalė
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Well, I guess you hS forgot something from your calculations: us!
The wolves may try to go for the "even numbers first" -victory - but we can derail them by giving an extra-vote to the good side and making it one vote -lynch. Which naturally means we'd have to succeed in it as well. But yes. The worst scenario aka. an innocent lynch toDay and a succesful kill by the wolves the next Night will leave the village in the morning of Day4 at 6:4 by roles and 5:5 by siding. So in theory the wolves could win on Day4. It's only that they would really need to succeed in everything and we'd need to goof it royally. With any other scenario than that things will be a lot more interesting and there are a myriad of variations. That said I guess the Seer might still be holding her/his horses yet this Day. Then again there's the NW-issue no-one has talked about in a long time - but the wish of the wolves to unleash those capabilities probably hasn't gone anywhere. With only innocents dead thus far they might start to think, at some point, that they could afford one number less...
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#127 | ||
Overshadowed Eagle
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Quote:
![]() As for us goofing it... I mean, we have for the last two days! The two protective Gifted will still have ten possible targets each toNight, and if the Seer reveals then at least one of them will have to protect her, making a kill even more likely. Quote:
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#128 |
The Werewolf's Companion
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I've found Mac to be much more suspicious toDay, and Kath's reaction to Greenie also feels wolfish. I'm not done reading yet, but I wanted to jot that down while it was fresh in my mind.
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#129 |
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And Legate continuing to defend Kath and echoing her in going after Greenie feels like they may be packmates.
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#130 |
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Also, I'm starting to think Form might actually be innocent, but it's really helpful for the wolves if the village spends most of the first three days focusing on the same suspicious innocent. So the people who keep pushing that line of reasoning (Legate and Mac are who I noticed doing this) look very suspicious to me.
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#131 | |
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Quote:
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#132 |
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So Nilp is all but outright asking for a Ranger protection here, and also suggesting that if Mac was evil, the wolves would have attacked him last Night. I feel like this could easily be a wolf play, but I don't know that I would expect it from Nilp in particular. Really confusing stuff!
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#133 |
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Also, I don't buy that this clears Mac. I didn't catch the bait yesterDay, I don't think it's out of the question that the wolves might have missed it or decided to look elsewhere. Nilp didn't post enough otherwise for this to ping on radars, I think. I'm tentatively believing his claim, but I don't think it was as effective as he'd hoped.
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#134 |
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Also, if the wolves HAD killed Nilp, it would have been painfully obvious that Mac was a wolf.
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#135 | |
The Werewolf's Companion
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Quote:
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#136 | |
Guardian of the Blind
Join Date: Apr 2010
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Is it just weird to me that no one is taking Nilp as a Beast Hunter seriously?
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And I don't even know what to think about Nilp except bad timing. No one was suspecting him of being the BH and now he's outing himself? I don't know man... And I DEFINITELY don't trust that Nilp actually used his trap on himself last Night (if he even is the BH). Also lots of people (almost everyone) thought that either Pitch or Nilp were the Cobbler. If Nilp is the BH and Pitch is the Cobbler than the Seer is still out there (and very well hidden).
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Adjust and calibrate when the memories start to fade; Into a carrier signal, origin unknown Last edited by Blind Guardian; 06-09-2020 at 12:18 PM. |
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#137 | |
Overshadowed Eagle
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Quote:
We're at, what, 3.5 hours to DL? Does anyone have any thoughts on who we should a) Mediumize or b) boost a vote for? Personally I still don't trust Form, and agree with Lottie that Mac looks suspect. Kath... I don't know, I keep going back and forth on her. It would help (me) if she posted more than once a page. ![]() As for who I trust... Lommy looks pretty innocent, but I don't like her focus on Rikae, because so do they. Greenie I still think good things of. And then there's Nilp, who (per #386) seems to have noticed the same number issues I did, and is trying a neutered version of the Seer-reveal gambit. Except he doesn't actually no anything, so how would that work? And the whole execution seem so Cobblerish that... I just don't know. (Pitch I just vaguely mistrust, Legate I can't get a read on, Sally hasn't posted enough for me to read, and... is Shasta still alive? Not sure there, either.) hS |
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#138 | |
The Werewolf's Companion
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As far as who to Mediumize, do we want to draw attention to Greenie if we think she might be the Seer? We might want to avoid Mediumizing her so we don't put a target on her back. I'd want to see Mac or Legate lynched toDay, I think, so maybe someone who's voting for them?
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#139 | |
Overshadowed Eagle
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We need three out of four votes, and we have no idea when they'll all start voting... is everyone here going to be available at DL? hS |
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#140 |
Flame of the Ainulindalė
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If Nilp was the Cobbler, that would have been a perfect act at the perfect time. Whether the Ranger would fall on it, is naturally another matter. But it would have been a nice try anyway - and if succesful, really genius.
I haven' read the actual Thread yet (well after my last visit here couple of hours ago), but I have one preliminary suggestion. If Greenie looks a) Seerish and/or b) good & reasonable, then let's vote for someone who votes the same she does. Greenie tends to vote early because she tries to go to sleep in decent hours, but us empowering her might draw too much unwanted attention to her (if she is the Seer). But yes. Are you all going to be around the DL, or are we in any hurry with this? EDIT: X'd with both
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#141 |
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Ill be around at the DL, and I agree with Mediumizing someone who votes the way Greenie does.
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#142 | |
Overshadowed Eagle
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Quote:
She's commented on Nilp now (#392) and has essentially said 'I absolutely believe he's innocent' (but more subtly). To have not even shown a little wariness, I think she has to be either Seer or Fake Seer. (Not necessarily Evil Fake Seer, but with that many reads already...) Edit: I can be here at DL (but would love to not need to be!). hS |
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#143 |
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Boro - sorry to hear you've lost power! I'll be here at DL and if you're not around, I can tell people to stop posting. I can even say who died if it's clear, or tell people to wait to hear from you before joining us if one of the tiebreakers come into play (I'm pretty sure I know the rules, but I wouldn't want to get it wrong!!)
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#144 |
Overshadowed Eagle
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So Mac and Legate have both posted, hooray!
-Mac's is a fairly plain list-post. If he's a wolf, the rest of the pack are probably split across the list. Form-Legate-Kath would fit that description, and is the players who've been most suspected over here. -Legate... looks bad, for the specific reason that he's ignoring Nilp's "we're in trouble tomorrow", and in fact seems to be trying to make sure everyone else forgets it. He's adamantly against any other BH revealing; well, the wolves would love all the Gifted to keep their heads down and give it One More Day. (Also, it lets them carry on the suspicion against Nilp.) hS |
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#145 | |
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Quote:
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#146 |
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#147 |
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Shasta and Nilp have both said they'll be voting early, Shasta maybe for Mac and Nilp maybe for Legate. I'd be comfortable Mediumizing either of them, more so Nilp.
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#148 |
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I think good. I believe his reveal at this point.
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#149 |
Flame of the Ainulindalė
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Let's hope for a decent combination to appear - like Greenie and Nilp voting for Legate and then we giving an extra-vote to Nilp.
I'm not going to hang around all the rest 2½ hours but I'll be around every now and then to catch up - and will certainly want to see the DL. I'm not sure about Nilp's reveal, but it is true there is little reason for anyone but the Cobbler (possibly) to fake it. Maybe I need to check also the details of the Trap Maker-role before making any further statements. But that's actually not that important. I mean the first thing for us should be aiding a wolf being lynched - even if we had to empower another wolf to gain it.
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#150 |
Laconic Loreman
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Thanks Lottie. Ill let you know for sure in about an hour.
I guess the world is telling me now is a good time to pass the time reading a book.
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#151 | |
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Quote:
![]() Also, I don't like that Kath is now "suddenly" understanding why people suspect Form. Feels like a wolf trying really hard to pull the lynch back to an easy but innocent target when it's starting to swing in the direction of a packmate.
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#152 |
Laconic Loreman
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And just as I posted that, laid down with a book...
Power is back
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#153 |
Guardian of the Blind
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There is a very large chance I won't be here at DL.
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#154 |
Overshadowed Eagle
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How do you feel about voting Nilp when you have to go? We'll still have 3 votes that can put the Medium elsewhere, but we'd have your vote on a good candidate if someone else Hadd to vanish unexpectedly.
hS |
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#155 |
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I second this.
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#156 |
Guardian of the Blind
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I'm going to go for a run while it's still kinda cool out. I'll be back in like an hour to vote. And yes that's probably what I'll do if nothing changes.
Also what is it with Pitchwife's pings? |
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#157 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalė
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#158 |
Laconic Loreman
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Hehe
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#159 |
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Is Rikae building to a reveal.......?
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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#160 |
Overshadowed Eagle
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