TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by autume98

You have made a good point Rikae. I do believe there is a wolf in there somewhere. I'm leaning towards Mira, Nienna, Nerwen, or Nessa.

I have believed that one of these are a wolf for a while now. I don't remember if I put anything about some of the people that have been quiet. I might not have after my vote on Day 1. I do think that one of these possibly two of these are a wolf. They just haven't posted a lot for me to get a feel for them.

Edit: x-ed with Form

So you agree completely with what Rikae says. That's not suspicious at all. Actually, I don't find it that suspicious because I doubt that even a newbie wolf would be quite that obvious.

That being said, I am back only to do my promised analysis of Shasta's posts and then I'm gone for the rest of the night.

[Durelin]

Well, if Form's a wolf I'm going to be more convinced Lommy's the bear...

Form seems too hung up on morm but he was the second vote for alona yesterDay, hoping to avoid lynching himself, when he just as easily could have voted for morm, which would have brought him up to 3 already.

Wolf who voted his fellow or bear...I just have no sense of Form, gut-feeling wise or vibes or whatever.

[Durelin]

And knowing a wolf leaves use nothing to go on, Form? Nothing at all, except that well, now morm's more likely the bear?

[Rikae]

I'd be quite happy to vote either Nerwen or Nienna, and before anyone jumps on me for not distinguishing between them, let's see them make more effort to distinguish themselves in this game. I have not seen anything original from them, only a lot of helping-a-now-known-wolf and trying-to-hide-in-the-shadows. They probably aren't both wolves, so it's kind of a 50/50 chance, but we certainly can't afford to keep them around, assuming they'll continue as they have - they'll just create confusion and harm the village.

I'd rather vote the people higher on the list than those lower (although I might change this list a bit):

Nienna
Nerwen
Sally
Nessa
Lommy
Autume
Mira
Form
Durelin
Morm
Mac
Rikae

Another thing - although it's far from Day 1, we still have an awful lot of quiet people who are not giving us anything to go on. If they are wolves, and we let them win, it will be a dishonorable win for them... but also, shame on us for allowing them to lurk their way to victory. If they are innocent, they're not helping the village much at all (in fact, they've been voting like cobblers) and having them around in the endgame could be disastrous. I'm not suggesting we vote quiet people instead of suspected baddies, but all else being equal, it might be a good idea to go for the quieter suspect - even if we're wrong, it will make for a livelier and easier-to-read village in days to come than if we lynched a louder innocent.

[autume98]

Originally Posted by Rikae

In other words, anyone but you?
What do you think about each in particular? They can't all be wolves, of course.

Of course anyone but me.

On a more serious note I'm leaning towards Nessa, Nerwen, or Nienna.

Nienna does look suspicious. She has been playing it pretty safe thus far. I don't know if this is how she normally plays or not. I'm also not comfortable with the reasoning she gives for morm. All she mentions is that he talked about the bear a lot. The thing that I was looking at morm for was more along the lines of the kills of the bear along with the voting. Sally points it out in her analysis of morm yesterday. I wouldn't have voted for morm on just speaking about the bear.

Nerwen - I'm not sure what to think about her. She seems to be playing it pretty safe too. I know people have mentioned cobblery, which it could be. I don't know what a Nerwen-wolf looks like. So I'm not sure what she would do.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

++Mormegil

Somehow he seems more suspicious than Alona.

I can't claim that I really know what I'm doing here, though...

Looks like she is just jumping on a band-wagon. Could be possibly trying to save Alona.

Interestingly enough Mira posts right after Nerwen:
[QUOTE-Mira]Crap.

++Mormegil

Unfortunately I was going to say the same thing Nerwen did. Voting for someone else who I find suspicious at this point would be a throw-away.[/QUOTE]
I don't like either of these votes. There is no reason for their votes. At this point Alona has 5 votes and morm had 3. Both of their votes at this time make it a tie.

So with that both Mira and Nerwen look suspicious.

Edit: x-ed with lots

[autume98]

Originally Posted by Mirandir

So you agree completely with what Rikae says. That's not suspicious at all. Actually, I don't find it that suspicious because I doubt that even a newbie wolf would be quite that obvious.

That being said, I am back only to do my promised analysis of Shasta's posts and then I'm gone for the rest of the night.

Never said I agree completely, just that she made a good point. It has also been a feeling of mine for a while now that one of you four are the wolf?

Now I'm wondering why you voted for morm yesterday. Care to share?

[Mirandir]

#84
Says to lay of Nerwen for the backwards writing thing, banters with phantom.

#86
banter

#392
Votes Pitchwife for his first post.

#402-403
banter

#428
"Can I just say that I hate the "voting to keep around someone more useful" reason for voting? It's the main reason I got into it with Nogrod two games ago - it's basically a slap in the face to someone who may not have been able to participate, etc.

Also, Pitchwife backs off his alona vote when pressed? Interesting. My vote stands, for now."

#434
Vote count
"Noteworthy: Pitchwife seemed to freak a bit after suspicion turned to him and jumped on Mac's vote for alona, but why didn't he vote for Hakon if he were evil?"

#454
"Form, you've never liked me in any games you've played with me, I get that, but I've never seen you blatantly lie about me before. I haven't suspected Rikae at all, and I'd like to know just where you got that particular assumption."

#535
Confuses morm with Mira.

#578
Votes Mira for pointing out gifteds

~~~~~

That is seriously all he posted. Based on this meager amount, I personally don't see any ranger hints. Furthermore, I certainly don't see any reason why the bear would kill him. He doesn't mention the bear at all (unless I missed something), and thus doesn't leave any clues as to who he thinks it might be. Why bother killing someone who doesn't post a lot and thereby is probably going to be an easy lynch target for his lack of participation. I don't get it.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Durelin

And knowing a wolf leaves use nothing to go on, Form? Nothing at all, except that well, now morm's more likely the bear?

Well, no, it does leave more to go on than that. If that's the impression I'm giving, it's wrong of me.

It is, however, fair to see that it's all I've managed to glean from it, so it's really all that I can post about it. Partly this is my own fault--a predilection for analysing rather than researching, and I would categorise looking back at Alona and relations to and from her as research. It's also partly circumstance. I've come back into the Day at a point where yesterDay is long gone and a reasonable substance of new argument has come up--including, throughout the course of itself, plenty of commentary already about Alona. My feelings, at this point, take into account what people have argued today. Morm, especially, didn't look particularly suspicious to me yesterDay (as I think someone more Research-inclined would agree if they took a look), but in the wake of his certitude that he was last Night's dream, he looks very suspicious.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by autume98

Never said I agree completely, just that she made a good point. It has also been a feeling of mine for a while now that one of you four are the wolf?

Now I'm wondering why you voted for morm yesterday. Care to share?

Sure. I wanted to keep Alona alive a while longer in order to look at the prospect that she and you were BFFs like phantom suggested you might be. Nothing more vicious than that.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Mirandir

That is seriously all he posted. Based on this meager amount, I personally don't see any ranger hints. Furthermore, I certainly don't see any reason why the bear would kill him. He doesn't mention the bear at all (unless I missed something), and thus doesn't leave any clues as to who he thinks it might be. Why bother killing someone who doesn't post a lot and thereby is probably going to be an easy lynch target for his lack of participation. I don't get it.

Granted, I'm going to look my answer is too right and fits too perfectly... but that seems perfectly obvious to me--Shasta was quiet and left no trail, and therefore the Bear would kill him--to leave no trail. I've mentioned this a couple times already, and I think it's fair to bring it up again, but the Bear should be a lot harder to find than Wolves or a Seer, because s/he has no knowledge of anyone's roles--same as an Ordo. Theories that Bears can't help giving themselves away aside (because while they have some credence, they're not really relevant to the night kills), it would be in the Bear's best interest to kill the quiet ones at night, because this keeps them as anonymous as their daytime knowledge might.

Brinn's death also fits that pattern. Hakon's? Well... Hakon's death doesn't fit it as obviously, but it does fit. At least, it seems to me anyway, that there's pretty much no way on the basis of Day 1 that Hakon's demise would implicate anyone, and I would interpret that in the same way: the Bear is sniping people leaving no trail, and that's the whole point.

[Durelin]

I've always felt it's a bit of a waste to try and find a pattern/clues/whatever in the Night kills, but I guess maybe that's just a personal thing...because I know that people can make picks for all sorts of reasons, not always tactical...

I largely agree with Rikae's lynch priority list.

[Macalaure]

I feel ignored by Form. Maybe this will help:

++Formendacil

[Rikae]

Mac, what's your case against Form, in a nutshell? I'm not sure what you're basing those "baddie points" on.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Granted, I'm going to look my answer is too right and fits too perfectly... but that seems perfectly obvious to me--Shasta was quiet and left no trail, and therefore the Bear would kill him--to leave no trail. I've mentioned this a couple times already, and I think it's fair to bring it up again, but the Bear should be a lot harder to find than Wolves or a Seer, because s/he has no knowledge of anyone's roles--same as an Ordo. Theories that Bears can't help giving themselves away aside (because while they have some credence, they're not really relevant to the night kills), it would be in the Bear's best interest to kill the quiet ones at night, because this keeps them as anonymous as their daytime knowledge might.

Brinn's death also fits that pattern. Hakon's? Well... Hakon's death doesn't fit it as obviously, but it does fit. At least, it seems to me anyway, that there's pretty much no way on the basis of Day 1 that Hakon's demise would implicate anyone, and I would interpret that in the same way: the Bear is sniping people leaving no trail, and that's the whole point.

I hadn't thought of it that way... And because of your perfectly logical answer, you must, by default, be the bear.

Okay, I need to vote now because I'm already late for another engagement. I wish I had more time, but unfortunately circumstances do not permit it.

++autumne

Right now she looks the most suspicious to me, due to both her agreeing with Rikae as I mentioned earlier and because she seemed to calm down a bit after Alona was offed, as if she was backing off to protect herself with one packmate down.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I feel ignored by Form. Maybe this will help:

++Formendacil

You have my complete and utter attention, Mac. But, I admit, I was not aware you addressed anything to me. Would you like desperate protestations of my innocence? Wild accusations of Morm and sundry? Cackling? Confessions of guilt?

[Rikae]

Herr Christian Mac Mac Mac
All dressed in black, black, black
with lots of fur, fur fur
all down his back, back, back

He asked his wife, wife, wife
for fifty cents, cents, cents
to see Formendacil, cil, cil
make his defense, fence, fence.

He jumped so wolfish, wolfish, wolfish
he jumped so high, high, high
he wasn't lynched, lynched, lynched
'til the fourth of July, lie, lie

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Granted, I'm going to look my answer is too right and fits too perfectly... but that seems perfectly obvious to me--Shasta was quiet and left no trail, and therefore the Bear would kill him--to leave no trail. I've mentioned this a couple times already, and I think it's fair to bring it up again, but the Bear should be a lot harder to find than Wolves or a Seer, because s/he has no knowledge of anyone's roles--same as an Ordo. Theories that Bears can't help giving themselves away aside (because while they have some credence, they're not really relevant to the night kills), it would be in the Bear's best interest to kill the quiet ones at night, because this keeps them as anonymous as their daytime knowledge might.

Brinn's death also fits that pattern. Hakon's? Well... Hakon's death doesn't fit it as obviously, but it does fit. At least, it seems to me anyway, that there's pretty much no way on the basis of Day 1 that Hakon's demise would implicate anyone, and I would interpret that in the same way: the Bear is sniping people leaving no trail, and that's the whole point.

I tend to agree with this line of thought on the bear. I don't think the bear had any idea Shasta was the ranger as I've said before I think he/she got lucky.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac, what's your case against Form, in a nutshell? I'm not sure what you're basing those "baddie points" on.

One, Alona defends Form and attacks Lommy when Lommy gave her case against Form yesterDay. She didn't do something like it that openly all game and I see no other reason why she might have.

More importantly, it's the way Form handles his suspicion of Alona yesterDay, which is "Wolf A lets almost-dead Wolf B jump the gun to make himself look good" right from the playbook.
- He suspects Alona, but barely gives any original points against her, and the few things he adds are very careful, so that they don't actually convince anyone.
- He has back-up plans aplenty and tries to sell them (quite strongly, even).
- When he is sure that Alona is going to accumulate enough votes, he gives in and casts a decisive vote (decisive only by placement, it was to be expected that others would follow), but he's still quite happy to look for a reasonable opportunity to retract.
He couldn't have known that there was actually support to lynch morm, because the later votes against him came out of the blue, and a sudden retraction right at the deadline would have looked severely evil.

Originally Posted by Form

You have my complete and utter attention, Mac. But, I admit, I was not aware you addressed anything to me. Would you like desperate protestations of my innocence? Wild accusations of Morm and sundry? Cackling? Confessions of guilt?

All of the above.


crossed with morm

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Herr Christian Mac Mac Mac
All dressed in black, black, black
with lots of fur, fur fur
all down his back, back, back

He asked his wife, wife, wife
for fifty cents, cents, cents
to see Formendacil, cil, cil
make his defense, fence, fence.

He jumped so wolfish, wolfish, wolfish
he jumped so high, high, high
he wasn't lynched, lynched, lynched
'til the fourth of July, lie, lie

What!?!?

[autume98]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

All right. Preliminary vote here, will change if needed, blah, blah blah.

++Morm

1. Because he's too darn edgy by half, even for him, and I'm getting an increasingly strong "killing machine" vibe off him.

2. Because I agree with Lommy that his death will tell us more than most people's (especially mine).

3. Because his name just looks so much better in red. I never thought green was his colour!

EDIT:X'd since myself.

I've been going back and looking at the votes from the past few days, and have come across some interesting information. On Day 2 Alona voted for morm before she switched her vote to save herself. I don't get the feeling that morm is a wolf. Maybe a bear. Which means we have three people that we have thrown out as possibly being the bear: morm, Form, and Lommy. I'm leaning towards the chances of us getting the bear not very high tonight.

I also found this interesting. Nerwen didn't vote Day 1. I'm not sure why she voted for Mira on Day 2. YesterDay she voted for morm and didn't give a reason. Above she has posted her vote for morm. Her statement about (especially mine) makes me wonder if maybe she does have something to hide.

Edit: x-ed with morm, Form, and morm again

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'd rather vote the people higher on the list than those lower (although I might change this list a bit):

Nienna
Nerwen
Sally
Nessa
Lommy
Autume
Mira
Form
Durelin
Morm
Mac
Rikae

My order is:

Nienna/Sally/Form all tied
Lommy
Nerwen
Nessa
Mira
Autume
Durelin
Rikae
Mac

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Morm

What!?!?

Eh, just joking around, inspired by a picture book my 5 year old just had me read to her.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by autume98

I've been going back and looking at the votes from the past few days, and have come across some interesting information. On Day 2 Alona voted for morm before she switched her vote to save herself. I don't get the feeling that morm is a wolf. Maybe a bear. Which means we have three people that we have thrown out as possibly being the bear: morm, Form, and Lommy. I'm leaning towards the chances of us getting the bear not very high tonight.

I also found this interesting. Nerwen didn't vote Day 1. I'm not sure why she voted for Mira on Day 2. YesterDay she voted for morm and didn't give a reason. Above she has posted her vote for morm. Her statement about (especially mine) makes me wonder if maybe she does have something to hide.

Edit: x-ed with morm, Form, and morm again

Autume, simply put, Nerwen is the cobbler and she is trying super hard to be suspicious, but not to appear overtly so...it's not working.

[Rikae]

Morm, you can't have Sally and Nerwen both be cobblers...

[autume98]

Originally Posted by mormegil

My order is:

Nienna/Sally/Form all tied
Lommy
Nerwen
Nessa
Mira
Autume
Durelin
Rikae
Mac

Here's my order:
Nienna
Lommy
Morm
Nerwen
Form
Sally
Mira
Durelin
Rikae
Mac

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Morm, you can't have Sally and Nerwen both be cobblers...

Yep the more time goes by the more convinced I am that Nerwen is the cobbler, what other explanation is there...the far fetched that she is a wolf posing as the cobbler hoping we don't lynch her. Nerwen is usually very engaged and thoughtful, I don't see it this time.

[Boromir88]

Since I won't have any of my vote keeping people...I think these are the votes so far...

Nessa ---> Morm
Nerwen ---> Morm
Lommy ---> Form
Mac ---> Form
Mira ---> autume

Morm and Form 2, autume 1.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

All of the above.

So, really, you don't want my attention at all. Looks to me like the case against me is picked, and at this stage I'm unlikely to dissuade it.

However, since I can't refuse a chance to argue, let's have a go at it anyway:

1. Alona defended me.

Heh. Well, I haven't really got a defence for that, though it definitely depends on the assumption that she was enough of a newbie-wolf that she would be as obvious as to assist another wolf on the Day when she should have known full well (assuming the other wolves had the sense to tell her, even if she didn't already have it figured out) that she might die. It could be--less likely, I'll grant--that she's trying to cast a shadow on me.

More likely, knowing I was innocent (that is, knowing I wasn't a wolf), she assisted me out of the goodness of her heart without thinking that this might have any consequences. Surely I'm not the only one who picked up that Alona liked people liking her?

2. My apparent lack of attack on Alona yesterday.

First of all, you're right, I guess, putting things that way that it's a textbook case of "Wolf A votes for dying Wolf B to look good"--but doesn't it occur to you that it's too much of a textbook case? If you didn't suspect me, would it look that obvious? Or would it look too obvious?

Granted, that may not sound like much of an argument on my part, but I've definitely been around long enough to know how a wolf tries to look good voting for another wolf, and I'd also like to think I'd be better than that--that I'd have just enough of a trace of obtrusiveness that I'd be moderately suspicious, though never quite suspicious enough to lynch. It seems here that it's the other way around! I'm just a touch too smooth, so I'm definitely suspicious enough to lynch.

In terms of your specific charges that I a.) offer no substantive criticisms of Alona, b.) offer lots of alternatives, and c.) couldn't have seen the Morm-waggon coming...

a.) This would be pretty much in keeping with my general philosophical sense of "nothing is certain." It's also fair to note that, as with toDay, I was mostly active towards the end of the Day, by which time the arguments had been offered (my pre-bedtime posts were admittedly insubstantial due to the late hour), and, anyway, it's not like Alona left enough behind on Days 1 and 2 (having a tendency towards fluff posts) that there was likely a lot more I could have gleaned than what was already being said.

b.) Alternative offering is what you do when you're not certain of someone's guilt--and when you're an angsty philosopher player of this game. It comes from trying to look at things from every angle.

Granted, I'm not doing that today. Rise or fall, I'm tying myself to the Morm-waggon. He has that effect of me (Nog can too--glad he's not here!). I'm well aware that if he dies and is innocent, I'm going to look more lupine or ursine than the Big Bad Wolf. So I'm really, really, hoping he's guilty!

c.) I couldn't have known, yes, that a Morm-waggon was coming, but when I voted, Alona was merely in the lead, not certainly doomed. Indeed, the Sally-waggon seemed to have a lot of potential (and if she was a Cobbler, you'll agree I'd have looked as good as with a wolf), and Rikae and Morm were getting mentions, as my memory goes. If I were a wolf, it would make more sense to have waited longer on my vote.

Naturally, of course, anything I've said will only confirm you more in your suspicion...

[Rikae]

Let's try...

++Nienna

[Formendacil]

Well, there's nothing for it--I'm apparently accumulating votes, and I don't really want to die. And Morm's almost certainly evil.

++ Mormegil

[Rikae]

On second thought -
Form's defense looks exactly like what a wolf would say, and his certainty of Morm's guilt seems pretty groundless.

--Nienna

That vote's for Form, unless somebody convinces me otherwise.

[wilwarin538]

doing my duties

Nessa ---> Morm
Nerwen ---> Morm
Lommy ---> Form
Mac ---> Form
Mira ---> Autume
Rikae --> Nienna
Form --> Morm
-- Rikae --> Nienna

Morm 3, Form 2, Autume 1

48 minutes left...just so you know...

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Form

If you didn't suspect me, would it look that obvious? Or would it look too obvious?

Form, this is what made me suspect you. I wasn't suspicious before, and I was rather surprised of the outcome of my analysis.

You're forgetting charge b.) (ii): You were not only offering alternatives, you really tried to convince people to start another bandwaggon so that you wouldn't have to vote Alona.

Originally Posted by Form

If I were a wolf, it would make more sense to have waited longer on my vote.

Not if you were looking for an impact vote.

Why does your defense read so pessimistic? I feel bad now...

[mormegil]

++Formendabear

[mormegil]

Nessa ---> Morm
Nerwen ---> Morm
Lommy ---> Form
Mac ---> Form
Mira ---> Autume
Rikae --> Nienna
Form --> Morm
-- Rikae --> Nienna
Morm-->Form

Morm 3, Form 3, Autume 1

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

++Formendabear

You still think I'm the Bear, Morm? Even with the Mac-analysis that has convinced Rikae and seems doomed to send the whole village plunging in after? Is it because you're the bear, maybe, that you are so happy to make certain everyone else looks elsewhere? Or are you the one, solitary, subscriber--ironic as that would be--to my suggestions that there's no difference in gut instinct between a Wolf and a Bear?

[wilwarin538]

to add to Morm's post, who beat me to the count:

Left to vote
Autume
Durelin
Nienna
Rikae
Sally

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Why does your defense read so pessimistic? I feel bad now...

Not at all because I might actually be innocent... that would clearly run counter to all the data given.

Village - Another Ordo = Less Village.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

You still think I'm the Bear, Morm? Even with the Mac-analysis that has convinced Rikae and seems doomed to send the whole village plunging in after? Is it because you're the bear, maybe, that you are so happy to make certain everyone else looks elsewhere? Or are you the one, solitary, subscriber--ironic as that would be--to my suggestions that there's no difference in gut instinct between a Wolf and a Bear?

I subscribe to the theory that you feel foul, a bear is likely as is a wolf but I hold more likely a bear, plus it's fun to see it rankle you.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Not at all because I might actually be innocent... that would clearly run counter to all the data given.

Village - Another Ordo = Less Village.

Crazy enough I am second guessing myself here. This seems almost sincere and I know how frustrating it is when you are innocent and people think you are guilty, I almost had to edit my own posts for language this DAY due to frustration. Problem is I am an ordo and I know it ergo I am more apt to go for a seemingly guilty Form than somebody else, unless we go for Sally or Nienna and my life isn't at risk by switching.