Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Eönwë]

'Both' in my last post referring to Ka and Shasta.

[Thinlómien]

I quickly read all Rune's posts (sorry, no summary, I didn't think I'd have time for that), and he really doesn't strike me as very suspicious. His tone is pretty genuine, and I like his no-nonsense attitude, but I have a bit of a vibe that he's watching the situation from the sidelines with popcorn, which would fit a wolf largely slipping under the village's radar.

The only thing that really stands out is possibly trying to save Lhuna yesterDay, but he's been very consistent about suspecting Eönwë and never suspected Lhuna much so the choice is perhaps understandable. Apart from Eönwë, he consistently suspects Zil.

But re: Eönwë and Lhuna, I find it rather interesting that on Day1 he said:

Just so you know I am biased (or blind) in some ways. I naturally suspect Loslote and Eonwe, I believe it has always been thus. I always want to believe the best of Lhuna, I know it has always been thus.

Is he really a self-fulfilling prophecy, or was this him laying grounds for trusting fellow!Lhuna and going for innocent!Eönwë (and possibly innocent!Lottie) later in the game?

Gonna xpost with everyone since my last.

[Inziladun]

What the heck. At least I'm pretty certain the QT isn't trying to lead me astray. He's also voted me at least once.

++Rune

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Unfortunately not. But could it be as easy as Rune/Ka/Shasta? Maybe. If both of you are trying to pin each other to me and I turn out to be innocent, doesn't that make your suspicion unfounded, thereby giving yourself a way out of suspecting each other?

Not especially. My suspicion of Ka has a lot to do with her reluctance to go after you based on her main point against me, that much is true - but equally it has a lot to do with the opportunism vibe I get from her sally at me, which has not a lot to do with you.

[Thinlómien]

QT -> Rune
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Inzil 2
Shasta -> THE Ka
Eönwë -> Rune 2
Boro -> Eönwë
Inzil -> Rune 3

I would still prefer one of Zil/Ka/Eönwë over Rune, but I'm not sure which. I still find Zil the most suspicious of them, but this whole debacle toDay makes me sorta more eager to prod in the Ka/Eönwë direction.

[Eönwë]

Current vote count:

QT --> Rune
Kath --> Zil
Greenie --> Zil (2)
Shasta --> Ka
Eonwe --> Rune (2)
Boro --> Eonwe
Zil --> Rune (3)

edit: x-ed with Lommy

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

QT -> Rune
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Inzil 2
Shasta -> THE Ka
Eönwë -> Rune 2
Boro -> Eönwë
Inzil -> Rune 3

I would still prefer one of Zil/Ka/Eönwë over Rune, but I'm not sure which. I still find Zil the most suspicious of them, but this whole debacle toDay makes me sorta more eager to prod in the Ka/Eönwë direction.

I would prefer to vote for Ka or Rune.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by THE Ka

... Hmmm.

That's my best attempt of quote imbedded in quotes...hopefully it looks ok.

Anyway. Yes?

An innocent can set a trap for a wolf as easily as a wolf can set a trap for an innocent.

When answering Kath's questions, I just don't feel any veiled attempt to cast suspicion or make it a "gotcha" question. Makes her probing for information look innocent.

[Thinlómien]

++Inzil

I still think the case against him is the most evidence we have. See: Greenie's vote post. Or half of my posts from yesterDay.

And I'm not really convinced about lynching Rune toDay. It doesn't really help that basically the two people who I suspect the most have been the ones to jump on the QT vote.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I would prefer to vote for Ka or Rune.

For what it's worth, I would say stay the course, if you weren't going to vote for Rune before the QT vote came out and are only considering him for those reasons than better to go with Ka.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I quickly read all Rune's posts (sorry, no summary, I didn't think I'd have time for that), and he really doesn't strike me as very suspicious. His tone is pretty genuine, and I like his no-nonsense attitude, but I have a bit of a vibe that he's watching the situation from the sidelines with popcorn, which would fit a wolf largely slipping under the village's radar.

I just did the same, and can't find any fault with your description here.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But re: Eönwë and Lhuna, I find it rather interesting that on Day1 he said:

Is he really a self-fulfilling prophecy, or was this him laying grounds for trusting fellow!Lhuna and going for innocent!Eönwë (and possibly innocent!Lottie) later in the game?

Interesting. From my experience being packmates with Rune last game, I remember him not being too confident in his lupine capacity, so this could actually make sense.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

For what it's worth, I would say stay the course, if you weren't going to vote for Rune before the QT vote came out and are only considering him for those reasons than better to go with Ka.

Maybe, but the way Rune has been posting after the QT vote reads wolfy to me, and I suspected him earlier in the game...plus, it doesn't look like a Ka vote is all that likely at this point, so:

++Rune

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

The only thing that really stands out is possibly trying to save Lhuna yesterDay, but he's been very consistent about suspecting Eönwë and never suspected Lhuna much so the choice is perhaps understandable. Apart from Eönwë, he consistently suspects Zil.

But re: Eönwë and Lhuna, I find it rather interesting that on Day1 he said:

Is he really a self-fulfilling prophecy, or was this him laying grounds for trusting fellow!Lhuna and going for innocent!Eönwë (and possibly innocent!Lottie) later in the game?

It's the former. I don't do lists and I don't do grand strategies. I am quite limited in my approach to this game, though I do have fun. I don't mean to always suspect Eönwë, but here we stand again.

Anyways, if Eönwë turns out to be innocent this time, then it is not just a matte of different styles that separates us, and makes me prepositioned to distrust him. Our minds must then work fundamentally different. I cannot fathom why an innocent would have attitude towards the Kitanna reveal and debate that he had. Nor do I understand why an innocent would be so eager to support the QT thread, suggesting all that doesn't are suspicious... too brasen too opportunistic for an innocent.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I would prefer to vote for Ka or Rune.

Please don't vote for me, it would be a waste.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Maybe, but the way Rune has been posting after the QT vote reads wolfy to me, and I suspected him earlier in the game...plus, it doesn't look like a Ka vote is all that likely at this point, so:

++Rune

Fair enough if you felt we were your own real options. It is a mistake though.

[Brinniel]

Staying with my first choice:

++Inzil

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

I love this bit from Kath. Eönwë is once again taking a weird stance regarding Kitana, and she rightly points out the flaw in his argument. This and his continued suspicion of her is very peculiar indeed.

I have a very strong feeling that wolves might attempt to use this as a way to brush potential wolf-slips under the carpet - if it seems like something that could possibly be a gifted slip, it is ignored. Obviously this does protect the gifteds, but is it worth it to just ignore possible wolves hiding among us? I don't know. I know part of why I hopped on the Huey-waggon was his slip. And Kit's was clearly pretty Rangery, but that isn't always the case. If people are too concerned to point something out, wolves get a free pass where they shouldn't.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

++Inziladun

[Thinlómien]

QT -> Rune
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Inzil 2
Shasta -> THE Ka
Eönwë -> Rune 2
Boro -> Eönwë
Inzil -> Rune 3
Lommy -> Inzil 3
Lottie -> Rune 4
Brinn -> Inzil 4
Rune -> Inzil 5

Who's left? THE Ka and Pitch?

[Pitchwife]

Frell. I believe Rune.

++Inziladun

[Eönwë]

Part of me feels like the reactionary Zil-waggon is something that was prepared by the wolves to break out at a time of need (though obviously not all Zil-voters are going to be evil), but another part of me is still suspicious of him and curious to know what his role is.

[Eönwë]

There's also the unlikely but possible scenario that they're both evil and the wolves are trying to work out who to throw under the bus (there are only 3 now, so it's presumably harder to steer/orchestrate a waggon, especially with the counteracting force of the QT)

[Loslote]

Well, it's Zil then. I hope you were a wolf. I'm not sure how I feel about the people who voted for Zil early, though. Seems like an easy vote on a Day when a lot of people had much stronger suspicions.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Part of me feels like the reactionary Zil-waggon is something that was prepared by the wolves to break out at a time of need (though obviously not all Zil-voters are going to be evil), but another part of me is still suspicious of him and curious to know what his role is.

If I was evil, this would be the time to say I'm the Seer!!

But, I'm not, neither am I a baddie.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

If nothing else today has made me quite firm in my belief that Inziladun and Eönwë are two of our remaining infectors. Brinn was my third choice, but I am not sure it adds up anymore.

I get why it is compelling to want to leave your vote in the hands of known innocents, nobody likes making difficult choices, but the way it was seized upon by Eönwë and Inziladun just confirms my suspicions.

I don't blame people for considering voting (or actually voting for me), it would be weird if it wasn't a consideration, but there are different ways to approach such a thing and their seems wolfish.

Anyways the legitimacy of one of my long standing suspicions are about to be revealed exiting...

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Part of me feels like the reactionary Zil-waggon is something that was prepared by the wolves to break out at a time of need (though obviously not all Zil-voters are going to be evil), but another part of me is still suspicious of him and curious to know what his role is.

Hmm why would you go and say this...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

If I was evil, this would be the time to say I'm the Seer!!

But, I'm not, neither am I a baddie.

This makes me sad.

[Eönwë]

Posts from wolves' last days that I think are likely to be important/revealing:

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

I say this because I've been thinking Rune might be another submarine wolf. Given that I suspect you, this could be a way for you to use a Seer-candidate's words to keep others from taking a closer look at Rune. And it bothers me that at least a couple of people have agreed with you about him.

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

If Lommy and/or Boro are wolves, then their longevity as a pack would be better served by having a couple of relatively submarine packmates. And while I'm still convinced they're both suspicious, this village has so far had the bad habit of lynching those who are in the middle of the controversy of the Day who more often than not turn out to be innocent, and I'm sick of imagining the wolves cackling to themselves as they watch. Also, giving both of them one more Day and Night's worth of scrutiny should yield something a little bit more concrete.

i'm also not convinced about how Lommy explained that killing Legate as a possible Seer places Rune in a good light. I don't think Legate would have been that vocal about dreaming of him if he were the Seer.

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

It feels hypocritical to analyse these votes when I didn’t put one in.

DAY 3 VOTES (with Day 2, Day 1)

THE Ka -> Sally (Lottie 2, Brinniel 3)
QT -> Brinn (Brinn)
Eönwë -> Sally 2 (Hui 7, Urwen)
Kath -> Inzil (Inzil, G55 2)
Greenie -> Sally 3 (Mac 2, Mac)
Lommy -> Sally 4 (Mac, G55 5)
——HunterSally reveal——
Inzil -> Brinn 2 (Mac 5, G55 3)
Lottie -> Sally 5 (Hui 4, G55 4)
Lalaith -> Sally 6 (Hui 5, no vote)
Legate -> Sally 7 (Hui, Brinn 5)
Shasta -> Sally 8 (Mac 7, Pitch 2)
Brinn -> Sally 9 (Hui 6, G55 7)
Rune -> Inzil 2 (Lottie, Brinn 4)
Boro -> Sally 10 (Mac 6, Pitch)
Pitch -> Eonwe (Hui 3, Brinn 2)
No vote: Lhuna (Lommy, Lhuna)


Based on the voting patterns ALONE, these stand out to me at the moment:

Likely Innocent
Lottie
Cast a decisive Hui vote. Her reactions to being a possible Huntee looked genuinely innocent to me.

Pitch
Cast a decisive Hui vote. He believed sally’s reveal, so his vote for Eonwe shows integrity.


Bad
Eonwe
I still think his vote for Urwen was a throwaway.
I still believe his vote for Hui could be wolf-on-wolf.
He prefaced his vote for sally with
I do not understand this at all.

Lommy
I know she had been consistent about suspecting sally yesterDay, but she could be a wolf who knows that sally is likely to target an innocent based on her suspicions, so she boldly challenged her claim and pushed for her lynching. Two birds, one stone.

Shasta
I’m still not comfortable about that throwaway Mac vote. Also voting for Sally after this then afterwards saying this I don’t follow.

Boro
I still think his late vote for Mac on Day 2 was an attempt to save Hui. The strange thing, however, is that before the Huiwagon gained steam, he threw in a comment agreeing with Legate (after he expressed that he’s considering voting for Hui) that Hui was worth giving a more thorough look. He probably didn’t expect the Huiwagon to take off the way it did, and so held his vote at the last possible minute to save him.
His vote for sally came after concurring with Shasta’s first statement above. Also, his “If you're the hunter, happy killing” comment just sounds too flippant. Like “I know your current suspects are innocents so have fun killing any of them.” Again, two birds, one stone. I wouldn’t be surprised if at least a couple of wolves voted for sally for this very reason.


Should look more closely
Brinn
Mighty strange how all her votes came in towards the end of a successful bandwagon, even if we don’t count the Day 1 vote to save herself.

Rune
Last mention of Zil on Day 2, he was in his neutral zone, and his suspects were Brinn, Lottie, and Eonwe. YesterDay, he said his quick read-through had not yielded any new suspicions. Afterwards he asked to confirm if his understanding of why Zil and sally were being suspected is accurate, which Legate did. Next thing we see, he could vote for Zil as well as his three suspects without feeling too bad about it. So while his not voting for sally is consistent with his stand on her reveal, his choice of vote seems oddly out of the blue.

Greenie
Primarily because she has voted for two known innocents so far

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Okay, reading over my main suspects (Mac, Pitch, Lommy, Zil, in that order for now):

Mac: Thought innocent yesterDay, but realised today that was down to not trusting the way people were suspecting him, when those people were a (now) known and a probable innocent. ToDay, launched straight into 'what if everyone thinks I'm a wolf', and starts in on Kitanna, which is an interesting line in view of, y'know... Kitanna. And he keeps trying to implicate the people who suspect him. I really don't like this.

Pitchwife: My chief suspect yesterDay, for his actions in the GLP & several 'just asking questions' posts; also his position on the Brinn-wagon (both suspicion and voting). Launches toDay with "this may implicate Brinn, except isn't that almost too obvious?" - I'm starting to view this less as 'just asking questions', and more as 'they will say both no and yes'. He suspects Zil with no explanation (at the time), and later pushes both the start and the stop of the Kit discussion, including one 'saw it as I was writing' crosspost that makes me feel like his post was intended to take credit for starting the 'let's shut it down' discussion.

Lommy: My second suspect yesterDay, mostly for reasons of tone I think. ToDay, she seems a lot better. #350 is a good example of this - she's not sitting there saying 'yes, but maybe no', she's analysing the evidence for both (all) sides of the discussion. And she's cast the first vote, too.

Zil: Completely off my radar yesterDay; it's those short posts of his. Today, spent a fair few posts talking about things we know aren't true, such as Rikae-wolf; even more posts on the Kit discussion; really, I'm seeing a lot of posts where Zil's contribution is shorter than what he's replying to! It may be just his style, so he's not top of my list, but he does look (at least at times) like a wolf trying to look active without having to say much.

I'm starting to worry I might just trust people who write long posts on multiple topics. :-/

Okay, at the moment I'm likely to vote Mac, but will take Pitch as still looking about as suspicious as yesterday (Mac's just more suspicious). Lommy I'm going to call neutral for now. Zil I think there's a better-than-even chance is a wolf.

At the moment, two of my top three have 1 vote each. It's going to be interesting to see who gets offered up to take the heat off them...

hS

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Zil has one of the highest post counts? o.O How is that possibly true?

I think that raises him from 'moderate' to 'probable' wolf in my estimation. Sadly for Mac, with both of them having a vote, it doesn't make me think he himself is less suspicious - accusing your packmate right before one of you gets lynched sounds like a great way to alleviate suspicion of them.

hS

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Anyways the legitimacy of one of my long standing suspicions are about to be revealed exiting...

No question about it.

x/d with Rune and Steve

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well, it's Zil then. I hope you were a wolf. I'm not sure how I feel about the people who voted for Zil early, though. Seems like an easy vote on a Day when a lot of people had much stronger suspicions.

To be fair, that was Kath and Greenie who have both repeatedly stated their reasons for suspecting Inzil and been at it for a while.

Yeah, I'm feeling a bit worried now, for all my suspicion of Zil. I guess I'm having the classic werewolf last minute second thoughts.

I'm extremely sorry if you're innocent, Zil, but a part of me is glad you're going to be gone even if innocent because otherwise I'd be debating whether to vote you or someone else every Day for the rest of the game.

Which brings me to say, whatever Inzil is, his death will force a lot of us to look at other people, which surely isn't a bad thing.

Still sucks if he's innocent though. Doubly so if Rune is not.


edit: xed with #1223 and onwards

[Inziladun]

Is there beer in the QT? If so, all is well.

[Thinlómien]

Wouldn't it be a little late for a fake seer reveal, Zil?

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Part of me feels like the reactionary Zil-waggon is something that was prepared by the wolves to break out at a time of need (though obviously not all Zil-voters are going to be evil), but another part of me is still suspicious of him and curious to know what his role is.

Well I've found him to be suspicious for awhile, but you are right that if he's innocent he was an easy target. Even if I'm completely wrong on this, I think at least his role could still reveal a lot about other players.

X-ed with a bunch

[Boromir88]

Parting words. Didn't have time to accomplish everything I wanted to....

Most suspicious of Eonwe for the quick latch onto QT's vote.

And Ka for pretty much the same reasons yesterday, even though it resulted in lynching a known wolf. Her posting today looks opportunistic against Shasta and then her response to me about not feeling like I'm walking into any traps.

Most comfortable with Lommy and Brinn.

Lean innocent towards Kath and Lottie

Neutral and waiting to determine on Rune, Pitch, Greenie, Shasta.

Good luck and happy lynching.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Wouldn't it be a little late for a fake seer reveal, Zil?

Yes, but it would still be fiendishly fun.

x/d with Boro

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Is there beer in the QT? If so, all is well.

Yeah, but it is Bud Light...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Good luck and happy lynching.

Only lucky and happy for the Infectors.

[THE Ka]

Despite what may or may not be behind toDay's QT vote (and I could spend all day making theories on how regardless that the wolves in there can PM each other which is a big unknown factor), I have to stick with my suspicions since yesterDay on Rune. I just don't see him as a successful wolf lead. He seems more a safe cover.

Since the clock is winding down and I'm not really inclined to change my assumptions last minute, I'm keeping with my original choice toDay:

++Shasta

Seriously though, if you have more personal trust in your own evidence on me than the QT choice, then go for what you trust. It doesn't offend me, just play.

On that note, I've been neglecting chores and preparing for the next few days so I need to jump back into RL for awhile.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Yeah, but it is Bud Light...

That'll never do. Must find some Guinness or Yuengling.

x/d with Ka

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Is there beer in the QT? If so, all is well.

I don't know but it's the gin tonic thread and Lalaith likely brought wine.

Somehow having a bad feeling about everything right now. Eönwë and Boro giving some last minute red flags acting like they're concentrating on everything but the lynch that's happening.

Ugh.


edit: xed with the five last ones

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Is there beer in the QT? If so, all is well.

Depends on which version of the Afterlife you believe in. (Muslims and Norse pagans have it better.)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Somehow having a bad feeling about everything right now. Eönwë and Boro giving some last minute red flags acting like they're concentrating on everything but the lynch that's happening.

Well, the Infectors have no doubt.

x/d with Pitch