Werewolf CXIII: Death at Deadmen's Dike - GAME THREAD

[satansaloser2005]

To yesterday's votes then. Baddies underlined, innocents in italics.

Huey-->Rune
Rune-->Dun
Boro-->Nerwen
Pitch-->Boro
Lal-->Sally
Dun-->Rune (2)
Sally-->Rune (3)

Did not vote: Nerwen, Morsul, Shasta


Two of the non-voters weren't a huge surprise; Shasta likely didn't know the game had started, and Nerwen is a notorious (but beloved) no-show on Day One.

Not to overly pry, Morsul, but why didn't you pop up to vote?

Meanwhile, to the votes themselves.

Huey (don't hurt me) voting for Rune could easily be wolf-on-wolf, as the first vote of the Day is often a safe one for whomever you want. I'm not saying it is wolf-on-wolf, just that I'm not writing Huey off as innocent for his/her vote.

The fact that Rune voted for Dun and then Dun died during the Night makes me think Rune suspected the latter of being a gifted and the pack agreed. Not a breakthrough idea, I'm sure, but sensible enough and, since we had such a spread of votes toward the end of the Day, it supports the idea of an absent wolf, as it would have been easy enough to justify voting Dun at the time.

As I've said, Boro's vote for Nerwen is fair in theory but regrettable in practice, as it's not usually a good idea to vote for an absentee on Day One in case one is gifted. However, were Boro a wolf, it would have been all too easy to vote for Dun instead, so as of now, I'm thinking my prince is innocent (and quite a looker ).

Pitch voting for Boro seems valid based on my thoughts above, though it admittedly doesn't sit quite right with me.

Lal suspects an in-and-out Sally wolf, which is fair play, though inaccurate in this case. Nothing too opportunistic about this, though I don't like that she further widened the playing field, especially with less than an hour left until deadline at the time. Why not vote for an established candidate?

Dun going for Rune could have been construed by the pack as a seer voting for a dreamt wolf, but this was clearly not the case. Still, well done, my friend! We will avenge your most foul and definitely expected murder.

And then of course I voted for Rune because I loathe ties and I wasn't into leaving room for last-minute votes that could propel another candidate toward the block. Mind, I know it still could have happened if all three absentees had shown up and voted, but that was highly unlikely at that point, and Rune seemed like a good candidate anyway, so there you go.



x'd with Nerwen. Hey yourself.

[Huinesoron]

A wonderful long post from Sally, and not much that's particularly suspicious. The one thing that makes me wonder is this repeated clearing of Boro's name, both by justifying his vote for Nerwen and by proposing an alternative that would be better for BoroWolf. This extends to casting suspicion on Pitch for voting Boro.

The thing is, none of Sally's points seem to apply to BoroMoon. BoroMoon wouldn't know exactly who the wolves were, and both Rune and Zil had gained suspicion at points. Would BoroMoon want to rescue RuneWolf by condemning ZilWolf? I rather doubt it, so picking a third party would be the safest option.

A Wolf Sally and BoroMoon would work with how Sally has been acting; Sally's last-minute vote for Rune would be an attempt to build credibility. Her nice big post then makes sure to throw suspicion on everyone who was active yesterday, which would be an attempt to clear out the active villagers and leave just the non-posters.

Or... Sally is innocent and thinks Boro is too, simple as that. But the theory above hangs together rather well - moreso the longer I look at it, hence the shift in tone during this post.

hS

[Lalaith]

Not to overly pry, Morsul, but why didn't you pop up to vote?

Morsul, in the admin thread:

I don't think I've ever missed a vote... I'm sorry won't happen again

Having said that, would be nice to see him today!

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

The thing is, none of Sally's points seem to apply to BoroMoon. BoroMoon wouldn't know exactly who the wolves were, and both Rune and Zil had gained suspicion at points. Would BoroMoon want to rescue RuneWolf by condemning ZilWolf? I rather doubt it, so picking a third party would be the safest option.

Picking a third party in this instance made him look better to several people, which is the opposite of a cobbler's job description.

So yes, a Moonomir is a different beast entirely, and if Boro is our special fluffy friend, I'm giving him a pass, but after all, our goal is to rid ourselves of wolves, not....well, this guy.

[Morsul the Dark]

Hello.

Reading.

Glad things worked out yesterday. One down one to go. Sally to answer your question, I didn't realize we were starting I got me days mixed up.

Y'all know I usually don't shut up .

[Morsul the Dark]

Ok. Huey strikes me as suspicious.

As Sally said easy first vote. But there's also Inzil's death now it could have been an easy no trace kill but not gonna lie, if I were in the wolf's shoes I'd had taken me(Morsul) out. I literally didn't post so there'd REALLY be nothing to go on.

Inzil also seemed to push on Boro a bit... worried about making a band wagon or just misdirection?

[Morsul the Dark]

Unrelated...

Since when can we post pictures?

[Morsul the Dark]

From Rune

[Huinesoron – By far the most interesting person in the village. Very active, if a little bit jumpy. Is this an Alpha that enjoys the spotlight (perhaps there is even an evil plan) or is it a very eager Ordo?

I would not want to vote for Huey, as I don’t know him, and I want to see where he takes this over the next few days.

Now I might just be dialing in too closely but could this be wolf to wolf communication?
(Evil plan) as in "Huey stick to the plan"? And then sort of "hey guys ignore him for a while.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Picking a third party in this instance made him look better to several people, which is the opposite of a cobbler's job description.

Arguably true. My theory was that he wasn't sure which of the two candidates at that point mighy be a wolf, and lynching a wolf is really against the job description.

That does inspire the related thought that Wolf Sally wouldn't go out of her way to clear BoroMoon, which puts a big hole through my theory. I still find you suspicious.

So yes, a Moonomir is a different beast entirely, and if Boro is our special fluffy friend, I'm giving him a pass, but after all, our goal is to rid ourselves of wolves, not....well, this guy.

Absolutely. BoroMoon as a theory is only worth following if we think it'll lead to a wolf. I was all ready to lay it aside until the Sally-Boro notion ocurred to me.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Ok. Huey strikes me as suspicious.

As Sally said easy first vote.

I'm guessing these two thoughts are connected? Yes, I did drop the first vote for RuneWolf - after also being the first person to find him suspicious, and pursuing those suspicions all day.

But there's also Inzil's death now it could have been an easy no trace kill but not gonna lie, if I were in the wolf's shoes I'd had taken me(Morsul) out. I literally didn't post so there'd REALLY be nothing to go on.

Inzil also seemed to push on Boro a bit... worried about making a band wagon or just misdirection?

At this point I think we're at three or four theories on Zil's death:

-As a possible seer, which would either point at Boro (or me, I guess) as guilty, or at Pitch as innocent.

-As the person who secured Rune's death, making him the closest thing to a confirmed innocent around.

-As an untraceable kill, which would suggest one of the quiet people as the last wolf (or Pitch).

-As misdirection, which is probably a subcategory of the first.

Hmm.

I'm still suspicious of Sally, but Morsul's 'adopt and expand' reaction to Sally's semi-suspicion of me has uncomfortable resonances with Rune's behaviour at the beginning of Day One.

Pre-edit: not sure if Morsul's quoting of Rune in support makes this more or less suspect. Will think on it.

hS

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Now I might just be dialing in too closely but could this be wolf to wolf communication?
(Evil plan) as in "Huey stick to the plan"? And then sort of "hey guys ignore him for a while.

And the plan is... 'continue to go for my throat, overreact and be jumpy, and make sure to be just as active tomorrow to keep drawing attention'?

I'm not sure that would be the best course to winning the game... I realise suspecting the people who accuse you is cliche, but arguing that my behaviour (which has drawn comments from at least five people, including both the wolf and the confirmed innocent) is a plan is... not logic I can really follow.

hS

[Morsul the Dark]

Wouldn't know what the plan is. I do know wolf on wolf suspicions aren't a new strategy and can easily hide a newer player. I used the tactic my first game out.

I'm just going on information I'm Seeing is all, and that's that I trust Sally. So I'm inclined to see where she's coming from.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I trust Sally. So I'm inclined to see where she's coming from.

Fair enough. Since it's impossible for you, Sally, and Boro to all be evil, I'll take a look elsewhere.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Unrelated...

Since when can we post pictures?

You have to have a URL to link, but pictures have always worked. Use the fourth icon from the right in your formatting toolbar when making a post.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Fair enough. Since it's impossible for you, Sally, and Boro to all be evil, I'll take a look elsewhere.

It's statistically impossible, yes, unless Gal has some 'splaining to do.

[Pitchwife]

Hello again! Housecleaning's done, cheese fondue is eaten, and with some caffeine to bring my brain back online I should be able to hang around for some time.

Yay Nerwen! Solid analysis of Zil's interactions. And of course I didn't mean to suggest that everybody who voted yesterDay should be given a pass, just that we shouldn't focus on the loudmouths only and let the rest slip by. And it's understood that I say that as one of those loudmouths, and you said what you said as one of those formerly silent ones.

Yay Morsul! I don't quite follow his reasoning, but that's nothing new--or then I do to some extent; if the quote he gave from Rune, where Rune talks about Huey, was 'wolf-to-wolf communication', it could perhaps be Runewolf warning his young padawan not to make himself too conspicuous (wasn't this after Zil had started to point out Huey's overreaction?). I don't follow the 'evil plan' bit, but his posts sounds genuine Morsulish to me so far.

On the Sally-Boro-tangle: I can see why an innocent Sally should feel iffy about my vote for Boro, if she really believes it was risky for the same reason Boro's vote for Nerwen was risky, as she stated in #56. If I'd seen this post of hers before voting it might have given me pause, but looking back on Boro's behaviour yesterDay, especially his talk about not lynching on D1, I disagree.

I also disagree with Sally's statement that 'picking a third party in this instance made him [=Boro] look better to several people'. Who would these people be? I mean, yes of course it would have looked highly wolvish if he had piled on either Rune or Zil after voicing no suspicion of his own all Day, but I don't see how randomly voting a non-poster was any better. He had IMO manœuvered himself into a situation where he could hardly make an unsuspicious vote for anybody.

[Huinesoron]

I've had another look at Lalaith and Nerwen, as two who've slipped under my personal radar today. (I've spent a lot of time talking about Boro, Sally, and Morsul, and just can't see Pitch as a wolf... add in Shasta the absentee, and I think that's everyone.)

-Lalaith voted yesterDay to put half the village on the block, claiming just not to have noticed. Her first post toDay included a big paragraph about cobblers, who aren't actually our priority target. She's also spent a fair amount of time clearing people - me, Sally, Pitch - based on yesterday's events, which could be suspect, but feels more like genuine thoughts.

-Nerwen gave us a big summary of Zil's Day One, the conclusion to which was:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Conclusion: Was probably killed largely because his particular rôle in lynching Runewolf would be hard to paint as either cobblerish or wolf-on-wolf. However, the joke about his intention to "look at [Boro's] posts and read them backwards while listening to the White Album" might have looked Seerish (assuming a jumpy wolf).

Which provides one unhelpful conclusion (that we can't get any information from Zil's death), and one point at Boro as a potential wolf.

Her second post includes a typo of 'Zil' for 'Rune', which could be a wolfish slip ('who did we kill, again?') but probably isn't. It also claims, again, that yesterday gives us basically no information.

Conclusions from me? Lalaith doesn't look particularly lupine, vote aside. Nerwen has posted two hefty posts, but hasn't given many opinions or conclusions that don't come to 'this tells us nothing'. I would call her more suspicious than Lalaith, if pressed.

And of course, Shasta has said absolutely nothing, still.

I see Pitch has just given another long post; in the interest of not letting my assumptions stand unchallenged, I'll take a look at Pitch's record in a while to see if anything jumps out.

hS

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Am around. Will dig in shortly - like, in the next half hour shortly.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

That does inspire the related thought that Wolf Sally wouldn't go out of her way to clear BoroMoon, which puts a big hole through my theory.

No, she wouldn't, that's right. For both of them to be evil she'd have to be the cobbler and he the wolf, and having slept over it I'm no longer sure his behaviour made sense in that case. At the moment I'm more inclined to assume that Sally may actually be OK; not sure what that says about Boro.

Morsul, would you mind clarifying this:

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Inzil also seemed to push on Boro a bit... worried about making a band wagon or just misdirection?

Misdirection by whom? Zil? and about what?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

It's statistically impossible, yes, unless Gal has some 'splaining to do.

Something like that nearly did happen, which is why I had to redo the roles last minute.

[Huinesoron]

As I said I would, I've looked at Pitch, and... I can't see anything that doesn't come over as genuine villager helpfulness. That's not to say I agree with everything, but it all seems to come from an innocent perspective.

There's also this, back in post 75:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

It's strange that there was no attempt to get an alternative bandwagon rolling and save Rune; if his packmate was absent this would explain that.

An absent second wolf makes a lot of sense.

hS

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

No, she wouldn't, that's right. For both of them to be evil she'd have to be the cobbler and he the wolf, and having slept over it I'm no longer sure his behaviour made sense in that case. At the moment I'm more inclined to assume that Sally may actually be OK; not sure what that says about Boro.

Morsul, would you mind clarifying this:

Misdirection by whom? Zil? and about what?

I think I accidentally read his response to Rune as against Boro when it was neutral. As for misdirection I meant a wolf might want us looking at who Zil suspected.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

My bad, I had forgotten Boro's true purpose, so I thought you might be referring to someone else.

I am inclined to agree with you. Boromir's posts are a good way of seeming active/productive, without offering anything in the form of actual progress. Though it probably seem worse than it actually is due to the lack of activity in general...

I am less inclined to think that Rune's fellow Wolf is the first person he elects to suspect. Possible, sure. But likely? Eh.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Yeah, but on the other hand, this feels like an overly-'strong' agreement at this stage. Unless you count my flinging-around of names, no-one had offered any sort of progress (though some very nice poems); I'm afraid your comment is raising my mild suspicions for that mention. (Though without negating my equally mild suspicion of Boro, of course.)

Goodness, wargs to the left of me, foxes to the right, wolves in our midst... whatever is an upside-down gorcrow to do?

I'm curious - what would your reaction have been if someone had disagreed with you here?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I said he was Moon Moon, I didn't say he was Aleister Crowley.


"Just this once, everybody lives"? Please, not that again. A Day 2 with no lynch, no votes to analyse and draw conclusions from, how would that be different from your vanilla Day 1, and then? Rinse and repeat? I shouldn't even have to explain this, as I know you know that's how it works, so why are you even suggesting this? So you don't have to commit to anything?

This struck me as a bit much, on first read. Boro was fairly clearly roleplaying with that remark - at least, that's how I took it.

[Morsul the Dark]

Day 1 I was absent...
Day 2 I'll have to vote early wife and I are going to a movie. So I'll be voting soon)

Probably Huey unless the Seer themselves says otherwise. Which is unlikely.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

OK, I just realized I've been up for close to 20 hours, and nocturnal creature though I am, this undead vampire bat has a lot of sunlight damage to recover from.

Nerevar guide me!
++Boro

Good night!

So... was there a reason for this, or...?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Hmm, Rune's swerve from Huey to Zil was a bit sudden. I can't fault his reasoning, but then I tend to suspect Zil a lot early in the game -- creepiest player is his job, whatever he is, and he gets lynched early a lot because of it.

It scares me a bit how we few are getting ready to vote each other while half the village are still more or less no-shows (Morsul? Shasta?).

This post makes me wonder a bit, after this:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Huey's suspicion of Rune seems fair enough if a little thin, based on just one post. I'd need a little more reasons to get behind that.

Especially after Rune died a wolf.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

And the plan is... 'continue to go for my throat, overreact and be jumpy, and make sure to be just as active tomorrow to keep drawing attention'?

I'm not sure that would be the best course to winning the game... I realise suspecting the people who accuse you is cliche, but arguing that my behaviour (which has drawn comments from at least five people, including both the wolf and the confirmed innocent) is a plan is... not logic I can really follow.

hS

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Something like that nearly did happen, which is why I had to redo the roles last minute.

-mutters-

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So I'm caught up, and I think my vote will likely be for Pitch unless something bombastic happens in the next few hours. I didn't like how he seemed to try to subtly push suspicion on not-Rune, and I didn't like his vote for Boro.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

So I'm caught up, and I think my vote will likely be for Pitch unless something bombastic happens in the next few hours. I didn't like how he seemed to try to subtly push suspicion on not-Rune, and I didn't like his vote for Boro.

So we have the two absentees Myself and Shastaworking overtime coming to two different conclusions. I'm curious what others think.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm curious - what would your reaction have been if someone had disagreed with you here?

Assuming their response had been 'I think it's too early to say something like that' or some version of the roleplaying explanation, it would have been 'fair enough', along with something about how long before deadline I'd need to vote (I said something of the sort later). Disagreeing with a deliberate stretch isn't wolfish; agreeing with and overstrengthening it is (and was!).

[Morsul the Dark]

++Huey

For stated reasons. Happy Hunting happy New Year.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

So we have the two absentees Myself and Shastaworking overtime coming to two different conclusions. I'm curious what others think.

Well, I don't know about that Huinesoron person... I can't see Pitch as a wolf. Looking back over Boro's posts today I don't find them suspicious, which also lessens my suspicions of Sally (which were built on a BoroMoon theory). Morsul (hi!) I will leave to other minds; being #1 suspect is probably distorting my judgement. Who's left?

With no more to go on, I still have to peg Nerwen as more suspicious than Lalaith. As for Shasta... I can't get behind the Pitch theory at all, but I can also see where it's coming from. So right now I can't suspect them.

So I guess right now I'd have to vote for Nerwen, who makes big posts that don't seem oriented on actually finding wolves. I'm much less confident of this than I was yesterDay, though.

hS

(I see I've acquired my first vote. Happy new year to you too, Morsul! I probably have an hour before I need to vote, maybe a bit less.)

[satansaloser2005]

A quick list from my phone....

Neutral:‎‎
Nerwen - Not enough to go on at this point‎
Shasta - Same song, second verse‎
Pitch - A little bit louder, but a whole lot worse (I couldn't resist, but I'm honestly on the fence)‎
‎
Good:‎
Sally - I'm adorable! Bark! Bark!
Boro - Given how yesterday played out, probably innocent, or cobbler at worst‎
Morsul - Making solid points at the moment‎
‎
Less than good:
Lal - For spreading things too thin yesterday
Huey - For some wacky logic that seems off

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't see how anyone can suspect Huey after yesterday. I just don't see that kind of bussing coming from that particular corner, that early.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

This struck me as a bit much, on first read. Boro was fairly clearly roleplaying with that remark - at least, that's how I took it.

Not that clearly to me. What role would you say he was playing?

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

So... was there a reason for this, or...?

I tried to explain yesterDay, but maybe I was a bit too brief. I had pinned Boro as probably the cobbler for most of the Day (hence, like I said, not our main concern) when I remembered a situation where a suspected Borowolf acted extra nonsensically and was given a pass as probably the cobbler while the real cobbler (me) was lynched instead. (Nog's Lost Philosophers game, in which you played IIRC). I may have been guilty of some tunnel vision by the time I voted.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

So I'm caught up, and I think my vote will likely be for Pitch unless something bombastic happens in the next few hours. I didn't like how he seemed to try to subtly push suspicion on not-Rune, and I didn't like his vote for Boro.

Oh well. Wasn't I allowed to suspect anybody but Rune on D1? This is easy to say with hindsight.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Not that clearly to me. What role would you say he was playing?


I tried to explain yesterDay, but maybe I was a bit too brief. I had pinned Boro as probably the cobbler for most of the Day (hence, like I said, not our main concern) when I remembered a situation where a suspected Borowolf acted extra nonsensically and was given a pass as probably the cobbler while the real cobbler (me) was lynched instead. (Nog's Lost Philosophers game, in which you played IIRC). I may have been guilty of some tunnel vision by the time I voted.


Oh well. Wasn't I allowed to suspect anybody but Rune on D1? This is easy to say with hindsight.

Of course you were, I'm not trying to tell you how to play. I do think it's a bit odd that you'd go so hard after someone you thought was exactly Moon Moon, though. And hindsight or not, it does, from this side, look as though you didn't want to lynch Rune.

[Huinesoron]

With Shasta's post 118, I can see the Pitch argument a bit better, but it's not enough to counter everything I've read from Pitch. In the absence of both better candidates and any more time, then, I will have to cast my vote for:

++Nerwen

For reasons covered in my last post.

Now I'm off to roost upside-down in a tree and hope for the best once more.

hS

[Pitchwife]

A look at everybody:

Nerwen - posted nothing yesterDay, opened toDay with an analysis of Zil‘s death, concluded he was killed either as looking too innocent because of his vote for Rune or as a possible Seer. Points out that those who voted yesterDay shouldn‘t be considered clear (which nobody had suggested), but doesn‘t voice any concrete suspicion. Could be anything really.

Sally - late vote for Rune after defending Boro; has been more active toDay: some friendly banter directed at Boro and Nerwen, followed by an analysis of the votes:
- Huey‘s could be wolf-on-wolf
- Boro‘s ‚fair in theory but regrettable in practice‘
- mine valid but doesn‘t sit quite right
- Lal‘s not opportunistic, but ‚further widened the playing field‘, which isn‘t good
- Zil‘s could have seemed seerish to the wolf (see Nerwen above)
- her own to prevent last minute votes lynching another candidate
Defends Boro as not cobblerish.
I disagree with her about Boro‘s vote, but I can‘t see anything clearly furry here.

Boro - has terminated goofy mode and promised to come back later. I‘d like to see what he does then.

Lalaith - explains her vote to me; Huey and Sally probably non-wolves, maybe one of them cobbler, but more likely there‘s a low-lying cobbler from the absentee group; defends Sally‘s vote to me as probably not wolvish; thinks I look good if the wolf thought Zil was the Seer. Very little to go on really, but she‘s defended several people while voicing no suspicion against possible wolves. Could that be a lone wolf desperately looking for allies?

Huey - Sally‘s vote could be a safe wolf vote; Boro less likely a wolf because early suspicion by Runewolf; dubious about Lalaith‘s vote (note, that was before she explained it); doesn‘t suspect me; concerned about a silent wolf; engages Boro and Sally, considers a WolfSally/BoroMoon pairing, concludes it wouldn‘t make sense. Some counter-suspense against Morsul, who suspected him before.

Huey is generally reasonable, but I‘m not quite comfortable with how he seems to assume he should be considered as a known innocent because he gave Rune the first vote and suspects Sally and Morsul back for doubting this.

Morsul - Huey suspicious, trusts Sally. Intends to vote Huey, does so. His reasoning is a bit thin here, but I‘m assuming he‘s allright for now.

Shasta - Boro not likely Rune‘s packmate; questions and suspects me; no opinions about anybody else as far as I can see. Really?

If the wolf is among yesterDay‘s loudmouths, I suppose it could be Huey (I don‘t know what Boro is, but anyway I‘m giving him a pass until we hear more of him); if among yesterDay‘s silents or latecomers, it could be Nerwen or Lalaith; not sure about Shasta – at least he‘s voiced a suspicion toDay, if one I disagree with for obvious reasons. Not Sally, not Morsul.

(x-ed with Huey's vote)