WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[Nerwen]

And there wasn't any real last-minute frenzy, either– so there you go, a veritable triad of improbability. How long can the fabric of the universe hold?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And there wasn't any real last-minute frenzy, either– so there you go, a veritable triad of improbability. How long can the fabric of the universe hold?

I'm trembling in my fuzzy Yoshi pajamas.



Bedtime for Sally. Nobody should eat me.

[Laeko_Randalis]

My, oh my, but posts go by quickly here.
The quotes don't help. My poor head...

But, umm, look upon my cute pony icon and tell me, could you really suspect someone with a Twilight Sparkle avatar of being a cold-bloodthirsty killer?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Right, DL was about an hour and a half ago. My apologies. Let me just go back and see who's died...

--------------------------------------------------

As the cold sun dropped behind the range at their backs, enough people had decided that Pitchwife was to blame for their predicament, and for the gruesome death of their caravan boss. They tied him up and left him at the foot of one of the steep cliffs, covered in snow, and left him there, still pleading and yelling with them to come back, that he wasn't a bad person, that it wasn't his fault...

Pitchwife's voice was loud enough that it shook the snow free from the cliff above him. Tons of cold white death fell upon him, and he never spoke again.

Pitchwife was an ordo.

It is now Night 1.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Night 1 ends.

As the sun's light rose slowly over Caradhras, lighting up the ground below, the caraveners slowly ventured out of their wagons. Everyone seemed to be accounted for... wait.

Where was The Elf-Warrior?

As one, they turned to look at the wagon that had always been set just a little off from everyone else.

Horrendous clawmarks gouged the door, and blood splattered the threshold.

One or two brave souls ventured a peek inside. There lay their missing comrade, torn to pieces and tied up in his best blanked, hung from the rafters like a macabre pinata.

Day 2 begins.

Dead - The Elf-Warrior (Ordo)

[Nerwen]

Okay... since nobody's around to talk, it seems it's left to me to begin the traditional "Why was he killed?" talk.

So– the face of it, TEW seems a fairly typical Night One trailless kill– he said little about anyone (except for Legate). However, that is from memory, as I haven't yet re-read the thread.

Analysis to follow...

[Nerwen]

The Elf-warrior

#34.

Originally Posted by TEW

Some random thoughts. The problem with trying to figure out how wolves will behave is that they can adjust their behavior accordingly. They can be at each others throats if we say they'll act chummy with each other, for example. However, we can try to sniff out lycanthropy in people's posts like you all have been doing.

To me, Sally is acting like Sally which doesn't say anything about her guilt or innocence. I'm neutral in regards to her guilt or innocence. Nerwen and Laeko_Randalis are the same way.

I am detecting a slight, slight wolvish vibe in the final paragraph of Legate's first post. I think any advantage of having a smaller field is outweighed by the sheer numerical fact that the smaller the village is, the closer the wolves are to winning.

#47. (Replying to Legate at #44.)

Originally Posted by TEW

Actually, Legate, I had and still have time. I was trying to prod you with my remark and your responses seem unwolvish to me. In response to your question, it's easier to make comments about people who haven't said much.

#54.

Originally Posted by TEW

I've reread the thread and this statement by Inziladun looks to me like a possible wolf to wolf communication "As for as wolvish tactics, I don't think anything could be ruled out. I wouldn't think wolf-on-wolf would be necessary, but who knows?"

I'm inclined to believe Pitchwife's explanation that he was trying to stop being Mr. Agreeable. However, that could be true and he could be a werewolf at the same time. Bom feels innocent to me. He seems to have the right amount of understanding how his statements could be construed as suspicious.

Greenie seems innocent. Besides, she's sick so I'm not voting for her. In regards to Kitanna, I'm inclined to think missing most of the day by accident is a mistake an innocent would make. Later, I'm going to review Boromir and Galadriel55's posts. Stay tuned.

#71.
Medium-length analysis of Boro and G55. (Why those two in particular? He doesn't say.)
Concludes that "both look okay".


#76.

Originally Posted by TEW

I'm going with my previously expressed suspicion

++Inziladun

CONCLUSION
TEW was more talkative than I realised, but as numerous players pointed out, he seemed to have very little to say– made a few uncontroversial general statements, and was "neutral" about– well, just about everyone. It is quite possible that this is what got him killed– he may well have looked like a Seer being overly careful not to say anything that might falsely implicate others.

The exceptions, of course, are his statements about Legate (#34) ("...a slight, slight wolvish vibe..."), Pitchwife (#54)("However, that could be true and he could be a werewolf at the same time") and Zil (#54) ("...a possible wolf to wolf communication..."), plus voting him.

Now, really the Legate comment should not have been seen as a "Seer-hint", since TEW backed off from it immediately, describing Legate in his next post as "unwolvish"– something no responsible Seer would say about a dreamed wolf. It is, however, just barely possible that the wolves considered him a Seer who panicked at Legate's aggressive reaction.

Zil is another matter– the fact that he is the *only* person TEW really accused, in tandem with TEW's "nervous gifted" behaviour, really looks pretty bad for him– to the point where I think Zil himself should be next up for analysis.

(Pitchwife, though, is a counter-example– here we have TEW saying a known innocent "could be a werewolf". This *should* have led the pack to take anything else he said with a grain of salt.)

All the above of course assumes the wolves killed TEW as a supposed Seer, but that doesn't have to be the case. It may have been a framing attempt, or they may have taken his caution and jumpiness as a sign he was *a* gifted, and not bothered about which. (I notice he used the sword icon in his first post, which could have been taken as either a Hunter or Ranger clue.)

Finally, it may have been just a random trailless kill– really unless Zil and/or Legate are wolves, TEW points to no-one at all. But in that we have to wonder why certain other people are still alive.

EDIT:typo.

[Nerwen]

Er– hello? Anyone there?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I am here, at least now.

The basic question we are standing in front of now is whether the WWs we have here would act more boldly or try to lay low and try to slide through the small game with minimal losses by leaving no trails and possibly stirring the water elsewhere. I would suspect the latter to be more likely in these circumstances, especially if it was the case that neither of them was a target of any stronger suspicion yesterDay. Since I think nobody was much (except for e.g. Pitch, who is dead), I would not put it past the WWs to have decided toNight's kill by saying "okay, let's make a no-trace kill and try to lay low for the rest of the Day" (with a possible addendum: "let's frame Zil while we are at that".

For this alone, I would strongly urge everyone to post, and I hereby announce that I will be more inclined toDay to vote those who do not participate much.

Of course, once again, this all depends on what kind of Wolves we have - it is possible that we have more bold ones and Zil is one of them and TEW just was a good target, therefore. But I am not really sure. It wouldn't have been a logical move from the WWs. Also, I am not sure if Zil was suspected by anybody else on any larger scale? So unless the WWs really thought TEW was the Seer... hmm, they could have (if Zil is a Wolf)... but the first possibility seems still more probable to me: the WWs don't have much of an idea about the Seer and they just wanted to make a no-trace kill.

Shall be back later with more thoughts, hope to see at least somebody around here.

[Galadriel55]

About yesterDay: so once in a lifetime the sun does rise in the West...

Pitch you are...you're not supposed to be innocent.... DANG IT! But you were so damn suspicious!

/frustration out

I am very surprised that they killed TEW. He got a couple votes yesterDay, and with a bit of persuation could have easily been lynched toDay. My conclusion: why should they waste a Nightkill on him when they could have easily got rid of him the next Day? Did they really think he was a gifted? Or, perhaps, just to stirr something up....

But the point remains: if they thought him to be Ranger or Hunter they could have lynched them. Therefore we're left with either Seer or diversion.

I've gone nowhere with this. It's all been said already. *facepalm*



I'm kinda curious about Nerwen's vote yesterDay, but I doubt that a Nerwolf would be so careless about an almost-throwaway with little explanation (I have to look again, I don't remember how the tally looked when she voted.)


PS - yes, when I voted in my explanation I was referring to Bom&Boro. Sorry for the confusion. I was saying why not Bom and why Pitch.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Incidentally, did I mention that I am becoming mightily suspicious of G55? There has been something late yesterDay after I have left in her behavior, and now this post above just sounds somewhat fake. "I am a Wolf and now I am going to start posting-messing around with questions as to what happened, expressing my puzzlement and casting the hot potato to the people: oh look, what's happening here, it does not make any sense, certainly not to me, especially not to me, precious, not at all - but refraining from actually saying something that would move the discussion, not really suspecting people, only stirring stuff a bit here and there." Something of that sort, it sounds to me.

[Kitanna]

I have precious little time today. I need to go to work in a little over an hour, so for now I'd like to focus on what happened after I voted on Day 1 and what's happened today (though clearly very little).

Originally Posted by G55

The second reason - the more weighty one - is that I was ticked off at Pitch in the last game. I just feel like voting him out of spite.

The first three votes for Pitch came in pretty quick succession. I believe she had no idea Zil and I voted for him, just like I had no idea Zil had voted for him when I put mine down. However, Pitch was generating a lot of conversation and suspicion around him. I don't like this reasoning of "just out of spite" because Pitch wasn't just a random player who hadn't had much activity.

Originally Posted by G55

Though I'm still gonna be watching him (who knows, he was also fenrissed because "he sounded queer"), I don't want to vote him based on his jokes and his reasons for his jokes and etc etc.

She seems to have gotten confused between Pitch and Bom here. Given how much Bom's jokes were discussed that's just unbelievable to me. And then there's the aforementioned reason she gave which as far as I can tell is directed at Pitch and not a Bom reason by mistake.

Moving on, I feel like Boro speaks a lot of sense in his next posts. He makes some observations regarding Kath's vote, the way Pitch and Bom both backed down after G55's "this is pointless" post, and the Pitch bandwagon (coincidence or nefarious activity?). He's certainly the most sensible person in my opinion, which means he can't be trusted.

Bom votes for Pitch and that hardly comes as a surprise. I was wrong about Pitch and now I wonder how wrong I've been about Bom. I easily could have voted for him as well, now I'm going to have to examine him closer than I had the chance to before.

Originally Posted by Boro

Winter is coming.

*slap*

Sally voted for TeW because

Something about Elf-Warrior's analysis looks off to me. It just seems forced, or like he's trying to say something without saying it. Definitely a mark in my suspicious column. Enough for a lynch vote? I'll have to consider it.

I would like more details on this suspicion.

Boro votes for Kath, no surprise there. Nerwen does too. Nerwen gives the reason that she doesn't a universal bandwagon and Kath's vote was suspect. But in the same breath she states Kath may just not know what to do, thus defending her. When Nerwen made her reasoning post Boro was already commenting that he might vote for Kath even if it was a throwaway. Then Nerwen agrees? I don't know about that. Stop one bandwagon and attempt to start another?

TODAY
I'm glad Nerwen did an analysis of E-W because I wouldn't have had time to.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The exceptions, of course, are his statements about Legate (#34) ("...a slight, slight wolvish vibe..."), Pitchwife (#54)("However, that could be true and he could be a werewolf at the same time") and Zil (#54) ("...a possible wolf to wolf communication..."), plus voting him.

I feel the people listed here (Pitch excluded) deserve some looking over. Nerwen may have a point here.

Originally Posted by G55

PS - yes, when I voted in my explanation I was referring to Bom&Boro. Sorry for the confusion. I was saying why not Bom and why Pitch.

Mmmm

So based on yesterday's votes I think Kath, G55, and Nerwen are looking the worst now.

I stated my reasons regarding Kath in my lengthy post yesterday. Her "let's get a cornered sally to fight" reasoning was just too suspicious for me.

G55 spent a long time talking about how pointless the debate over jokes were, then she turns around a votes for one of the main players. She confuses Bom and Pitch and then makes a "I'm sorry, it was a mistake" post this morning. I don't like that either. Her actual reason for voting for Pitch (out of spite) was no better. Him and Bom had both garnered a lot of attention. I would have been surprised if neither one of them was voted for and then she makes that comment? Not very nice at all, precious.

And Nerwen. Her vote for Kath wasn't a surprise because she had said earlier it might be a possibility. But I don't like the placement of her reasoning. She says she wants to stop a universal bandwagon and because Kath's vote is suspect after Boro says he's probably voting for Kath. As I said earlier, one bandwagon for another? I don't think Kath was ever really in danger of being lynched yesterday, but Nerwen's reasoning are too convenient for my liking.

X-Post with Legate

[Kitanna]

I'm going to work and I'll be back in about 11 hours. When I do return I won't have more than an hour to comment, so my vote will be early tonight.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Of course, once again, this all depends on what kind of Wolves we have - it is possible that we have more bold ones and Zil is one of them and TEW just was a good target, therefore. But I am not really sure. It wouldn't have been a logical move from the WWs. Also, I am not sure if Zil was suspected by anybody else on any larger scale? So unless the WWs really thought TEW was the Seer... hmm, they could have (if Zil is a Wolf)... but the first possibility seems still more probable to me: the WWs don't have much of an idea about the Seer and they just wanted to make a no-trace kill.

My point remains, though: why TEW instead of someone else? There's quite a number of people in this village who would have been higher-up on *my* "to kill" list, just on principle. (I don't want to knock TEW, by the way– but you know what I mean.)

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I am very surprised that they killed TEW. He got a couple votes yesterDay, and with a bit of persuation could have easily been lynched toDay. My conclusion: why should they waste a Nightkill on him when they could have easily got rid of him the next Day? Did they really think he was a gifted? Or, perhaps, just to stirr something up....

But the point remains: if they thought him to be Ranger or Hunter they could have lynched them. Therefore we're left with either Seer or diversion.

Not really– that kind of thing can backfire pretty badly. Gifteds do have a nasty habit of revealing on the way to the gallows, after all.

Originally Posted by Legate

Incidentally, did I mention that I am becoming mightily suspicious of G55? There has been something late yesterDay after I have left in her behavior, and now this post above just sounds somewhat fake. "I am a Wolf and now I am going to start posting-messing around with questions as to what happened, expressing my puzzlement and casting the hot potato to the people: oh look, what's happening here, it does not make any sense, certainly not to me, especially not to me, precious, not at all - but refraining from actually saying something that would move the discussion, not really suspecting people, only stirring stuff a bit here and there." Something of that sort, it sounds to me.

It could be. That bit I quoted above has something of that glimpse-of-the-Nightly-discussion feel.

Originally Posted by Kit

And Nerwen. Her vote for Kath wasn't a surprise because she had said earlier it might be a possibility. But I don't like the placement of her reasoning. She says she wants to stop a universal bandwagon and because Kath's vote is suspect after Boro says he's probably voting for Kath. As I said earlier, one bandwagon for another? I don't think Kath was ever really in danger of being lynched yesterday, but Nerwen's reasoning are too convenient for my liking.

I meant I didn't want there to be a single bandwaggon that just about everyone voted in– that leaves little or nothing to analyse the next Day.

[A Little Green]

I'm here! First of all, sorry about yesterDay. I think this was the first time I ever purposefully abstained from voting; I just felt that it would have been unfair to everybody (and especially the one I voted) because I couldn't think even half straight. I hope to fix some of that toDay! I'm still busy though, but at least not about to faint.

Originally Posted by Sally

My sweet prince, I've simply missed you. Don't you trust me?

I remember the Days when we were happy and together, and the wolves couldn't threaten us. They were good Days, and I wish we could return to them. That's all.

And yes, don't vote me. Innocent!Sally is innocent, and that would be a bad move.

I should know well enough by now not to suspect Sally based on early Day 1 joking, but I don't like this; I think I said something along the same lines yesterDay - the underlining of her own innocence without any real cause makes me uneasy. On the other hand, her reaction to Kath's vote looked remarkably calm for an evil Sally. So yeah, I'm unsure.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Thing is, on previous showing, Bom is a very easy target. (Hope you don't mind my saying that, Bom.) Pitch knows this well, even if you don't– which does make me wonder about him, yes it does. And then, his switching to G55, also a novice player with a bit of a history of attracting suspicion– hmmn.

I usually can't read Nerwen at all so I might be off with this one, but this post looks opportunistic. In pointing out Pitch's suspicious behaviour but leaving the end with an open hmmn, she urges others to suspect Pitch without really involving herself. And indeed, she washes her hands as soon as Pitch gets votes.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hey! A Pitchwaggon! I mean, I know what I said about him myself, but... this is pretty sudden, isn't it?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I might vote her, simply *because* I don't want a universal bandwaggon – and yeah, her vote was suspect, all right. The only thing I could say about it, really, is that this being *Kath*, she may honestly not realise what you're *supposed* to do on Day One. (Trouble is, looking at Kath tnds to bring Pitch back into it anyway.)

Also, I'm not overly fond of voting to avoid a bandwaggon - bandwaggons are dangerous, true, but if you suspect someone, you want them bandwaggoned since that's pretty much the only way to get them lynched.

Originally Posted by Gal

I'm kinda curious about Nerwen's vote yesterDay, but I doubt that a Nerwolf would be so careless about an almost-throwaway with little explanation (I have to look again, I don't remember how the tally looked when she voted.)

If no fellows were in danger, a wolf would not care too much about the outcome (unless one of the candidates was a seer-suspect or some such). All in all, I'm somewhat suspicious of Nerwen - but then again, her first toDay looked both genuine and sensible to me, especially regarding Zil who I have a vague bad feeling about anyway. I'd take a proper look at him if I had the time, but I'm afraid I don't.


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Kit

Gods, I must leave the game over GoT, I swear I will. *puts fingers in ears...er eyes*

It's nice to know at least one person who's on my side.


In other news, I woke up ridiculously sick this morning. I didn't sleep well the Night before last, so that didn't help. Anyway, it's doubtful I'll be around much toDay, but I'll try. Hopefully I'll feel better in a few hours (for instance, after killing a werewolf).



Re: Pitch: I told thee so!
Re: Elf-Warrior: What the heck, wolves? I really wanted to lynch him!


Oh, and whoever posts a snazzy vote count from yesterDay gets free cupcake snuggles.



Sally out.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Also, I'm not overly fond of voting to avoid a bandwaggon - bandwaggons are dangerous, true, but if you suspect someone, you want them bandwaggoned since that's pretty much the only way to get them lynched.

If you *strongly* suspect someone, yes. As it was, I didn't, and that sudden leap on him rather alarmed me.

[A Little Green]

A quick list, based more on feeling than fact since I don't have time to reread as much as I'd wish.

Legate - Feels fine this far.
Sally - Undecided about her. Like I said, she underlines her own innocence in a suspicious way, but reacted to Kath's vote in a relatively innocent way.
Inzil - Bad feeling. Couldn't pinpoint it right now, I'm sure I'd find a reason for the feeling if I reread his posts.
Kath - Good vibes.
Kitanna - Really sharp, not sure about her alignment though!
Bom - Undecided. Initial reaction was "suspicious!", after which I remembered I always think that whatever his role. So a questionmark for now.
Nerwen - Somewhat suspicious because, as stated before, she urged the Pitchwaggon on but backed off when it actually began.
G55 - Good and bad vibes at the same time! Another I'd love to reread.
Boro - Nothing alarming this far.
Azura - Still not around, right?
Laeko_Randalis - Couldn't say.


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

If you *strongly* suspect someone, yes. As it was, I didn't, and that sudden leap on him rather alarmed me.

Ah, I think I see where you're coming from now. Then again, it looked like you still suspected him more than Kath, which made me wonder why vote her instead of him.

[A Little Green]

That said, I've got to dash. I'll be back later.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

My point remains, though: why TEW instead of someone else? There's quite a number of people in this village who would have been higher-up on *my* "to kill" list, just on principle. (I don't want to knock TEW, by the way– but you know what I mean.)

Like who? Killing newbies is unsporty. That is at least minus two in any case. Also, in any case, substract three Wolves who are not going to kill each other, of course. If the newbies are both innocent, the number of people you can kill is already thinning very mightily with this. There may be reasons for some people to rather keep them around: for instance, if Zil is innocent, he could be made a suspect, maybe it isn't good to kill him. Similarly maybe with me? And so on and so on. I would however mightily like to hear who would be high on *your* "to kill" list, since you have already mentioned that.

It could be. That bit I quoted above has something of that glimpse-of-the-Nightly-discussion feel.

That's what I thought.

EDIT: x-ed with three little psychopatic frogs.

[Inziladun]

First off, sorry about that, Pitch. He was the only one I really had anything on, even though, as I said, I had some doubts about his lupinity. The two votes for him coming so hot on the heels of mine was rather freaky.

Not much time for much of toDay, sadly. I'll get on when I can, though.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It may have been a framing attempt, or they may have taken his caution and jumpiness as a sign he was *a* gifted, and not bothered about which. (I notice he used the sword icon in his first post, which could have been taken as either a Hunter or Ranger clue.)

I think this more likely than a desire for a trailless kill, as there would seem to have been more choices who left a lot less to be analyzed than TEW.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Like who? Killing newbies is unsporty. That is at least minus two in any case. Also, in any case, substract three Wolves who are not going to kill each other, of course.

Exactly.

If the newbies are both innocent, the number of people you can kill is already thinning very mightily with this. There may be reasons for some people to rather keep them around: for instance, if Zil is innocent, he could be made a suspect, maybe it isn't good to kill him. Similarly maybe with me? And so on and so on. I would however mightily like to hear who would be high on *your* "to kill" list, since you have already mentioned that.

Well you, for a start. And then there's Boro. And Sally, Greenie, Kit, Kath... all people I'd have chosen to knock off first.

EDIT:X'd with Zil.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And Sally, Greenie, Kit, Kath... all people I'd have chosen to knock off first.

....I'm flattered.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Like who? Killing newbies is unsporty. That is at least minus two in any case. Also, in any case, substract three Wolves who are not going to kill each other, of course. If the newbies are both innocent, the number of people you can kill is already thinning very mightily with this. There may be reasons for some people to rather keep them around: for instance, if Zil is innocent, he could be made a suspect, maybe it isn't good to kill him. Similarly maybe with me? And so on and so on. I would however mightily like to hear who would be high on *your* "to kill" list, since you have already mentioned that.

That is rhetorical? Or are you totally serious about Nerwen's kill list?

TEW wouldn't make sense as a trailless kill. Even though he didn't give much a way, the two first time players could have been trailless, Greenie, Kath, sally too. So, I think Nerwen's point is if TEW was made as a trailless the fact that it was TEW says something. And not one of the others.

Either the wolf pack is a group that likes to lay low, but then again why not kill you, or Nerwen or me? That would probably leave a trail, but it's rather easy to manipulate the trail once the person's killed.

Or TEW said/did something that tipped off he was a possible gifted, thus making him a more attractive target than the other no-trail kills. I guess what I'm saying is why can't it be both? TEW really doesn't leave a trail and was killed to try to set up you a/o Inzil. But the fact is, as little as the trail was, TEW left one, and whether he turned out gifted or not, there's got to be a reason TEW was a better no-trail target than others.

I guess what I'm trying to get to is, a no-trail kill/frame attempt is not going to be the only reason, because if they aren't concentrating on killing gifteds, then they're very bold. I'm going to look at it as TEW was killed because he was thought a gifted, and the trailless business is just an indirect outcome.

I need to go ice my face now, after Kit's slap.

[satansaloser2005]

In a game this small, the wolves can afford to be bold. They only need three Days to do this, and then it'll be end game. Still, you're right. So, my sweet prince, why was EW killed rather than me or Kit or someone else? Theorize! Hypothesize! Lobotomize! (Well, maybe not the last one.)

Cupcake demands an explanation for this Night kill.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

In a game this small, the wolves can afford to be bold. They only need three Days to do this, and then it'll be end game. Still, you're right. So, my sweet prince, why was EW killed rather than me or Kit or someone else? Theorize! Hypothesize! Lobotomize! (Well, maybe not the last one.)

Cupcake demands an explanation for this Night kill.

"?"

And I would have more of a clue than you? I'm going on the easiest assumption, something TEW said set him above the other no-trail options. Either, he was believe gifted (which would point to Legate a/o Inzil) or the other people I would put into TEW's group based on Day 1, (Greenie, Kath, sally, Laeko, and Azura) contain a few wolves. I have no special ability to know if it's the right assumption, but it's the one that makes the most sense to me. Or at least starts giving me ideas on certain people, which I assure you, is coming.

[satansaloser2005]

Well....

1. You're actually around.
2. I trust your judgement.
3. You said that XYZ wasn't a very valid explanation, but hadn't given any other options.
4. I'm bored.

Also, how do I fit into the same category as the two slabs of freshly-cut meat? Neither of them even voted. A no-trace kill by definition leaves no trace. Elf, Kath, and I left a trace, and thus are not in the same MLT as the newbies. Just sayin'.

[Boromir88]

Day 1

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I am detecting a slight, slight wolvish vibe in the final paragraph of Legate's first post. I think any advantage of having a smaller field is outweighed by the sheer numerical fact that the smaller the village is, the closer the wolves are to winning.

I didn't understand TEW's point here, or at least I could not sense any of the slight wolvish vibes from Legate's first post. Legate bantered about the guide then tried prompting a question about wolf strategy in a low-number village. It looked rather standard Legate, which I imagine for werewolving he at least brings a brief case as he's always ready to get to business.

Originally Posted by Legate, #42

So, I at least know whom I am not going to vote. Also, upholding the ancient tradition, I won't vote for either of the newbies.

This was his list post where he didn't seem to have any strong suspects at the time. But it looks good in staying consistent with his trying to "lynch wisely." I'm sure people disagree with the strategy, but part of the battle on getting through Day 1 is figuring out who not to lynch. Eventually, got to get wolves, but the longer the gifteds can keep hidden, the better. Can't win or lose on Day 1, but it can be crippling if the seer is ousted or lynched.

In sum, figuring out who you don't want to lynch is good enough for Day 1, but eventually got to start getting serious suspects to send werewolves to the gibbets.

Originally Posted by Legate, #49

But I think I could vote Elf-warrior in the end - maybe also it could be used as a "warning vote", if nothing else, to underline my point: if you say that it is easier to make comments about people who haven't said much, yes, maybe, but that actually sounds like ignoring them (if you don't post anything about them, at least a sentence, or a yes/no note!). It is not such a big deal to make comments about people who have said a lot, it is more a problem to read their posts, isn't it? And I certainly hope you are trying to at least read everyone's posts, at least briefly.

Therefore,

++Elf-warrior

I agree with Inzil yesterday, that if this was a "warning" to Elf-warrior, a vote is a pretty strong one. Even with it being Day 1. And honestly, Legate, I have no clue what you were warning TEW about. Was it, generally, just, if you have the time, shape up? Or care to explain what you meant again?

Day 2

Don't agree with him that TEW was a no-trace kill, but his activity today and starting to stir around suspicions looks innocent enough.

I had thought his first post today looked like an attempt to steer us to believe TEW was killed as a no-trace, and possibly to frame him. Although, he only mentions it could frame Inzil, and not himself. I certainly can't see a wolf-Legate being bothered by "slight slight wolvish feelings" from TEW.

So, if I go with the wolves thought TEW was the seer, then Legate being a wolf doesn't really make sense. Why challenge him with a vote and risk the attention, or chance the Ranger catches on too? But, if the wolves thought TEW was the Ranger or Hunter, I wouldn't put it past Legate being a wolf trying to get some sign out of TEW. Although, for that to make sense, then TEW would have to of given Rangery or Huntery vibes.

Edit: crossed with sally.

Also, how do I fit into the same category as the two slabs of freshly-cut meat? Neither of them even voted. A no-trace kill by definition leaves no trace. Elf, Kath, and I left a trace, and thus are not in the same MLT as the newbies. Just sayin'.

Fairy nuff. I meant, like Greenie, Kath, and TEW your posting doesn't give much away. Though you are right, you would leave a trace, as TEW did. The trace though would be hard to follow correctly, hence similar to TEW, even if technically you're right.

[satansaloser2005]

As long as we agree that I'm right.

I need to rush through some work so I can get ahead and then dink around later. I shall return.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well you, for a start. And then there's Boro. And Sally, Greenie, Kit, Kath... all people I'd have chosen to knock off first.

Fair enough, maybe it would've been better if you'd have also said why, but whatever, let's leave it. It was just for the sake of seeing what you answer, one answer is enough.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

That is rhetorical? Or are you totally serious about Nerwen's kill list?

I don't know what you imagine under "totally serious", but yes, it was a serious question: I wanted an answer. Why not? Since Nerwen already mentioned it, I thought it was a good idea to ask her. First, it would have provided better background for her theory (I wanted to know who did she mean might be, in her opinion, on the same level with TEW and who not), second, obviously, because if she was a Wolf, she could have made some slip, or answered truthfully or untruthfully but something could be perhaps glimpsed from that... well, you never know.

TEW wouldn't make sense as a trailless kill. Even though he didn't give much a way, the two first time players could have been trailless, Greenie, Kath, sally too. So, I think Nerwen's point is if TEW was made as a trailless the fact that it was TEW says something. And not one of the others.

Either the wolf pack is a group that likes to lay low, but then again why not kill you, or Nerwen or me? That would probably leave a trail, but it's rather easy to manipulate the trail once the person's killed.

I understand what you mean if you mean what Nerwen says, I get it now. But as to what you just said here about manipulating the trail: Not really and not necessarily always. You see dead TEW, how can we know the point was not to try to confuse us with little or no trail, and leaving us to ponder e.g. those whom TEW was talking about? (Or was not talking about? Or...)

You are acting rather, hmm, simple-mindedly, I would say, as if you were not a seasoned player who should know how WW Night-talks often go: very often, the WWs don't really have much of a good target (unless they think that XY is "definitely" a Gifted and stuff like that), especially on early Nights, so it ends up like "Hey Joe, we are supposed to send the kill in an hour, so out of those remaining people we have, whom do we choose?" "I think let's kill TEW, he has a fair enough chance of being a Gifted and at the same time if it's not, it would be a no trace kill in any case, and on top of that it can point to whomever..." but at the same time, they almost said "let's lynch Juan Domingo Perez", since he was almost as good target as TEW. What I mean is: It is not usually that clear even for the WWs, like: "I think TEW is the Seer, the chance of him being one is 89%, whereas the next person in a row is, in my opinion, only 40% likely to be one!"

So:

Or TEW said/did something that tipped off he was a possible gifted, thus making him a more attractive target than the other no-trail kills. I guess what I'm saying is why can't it be both? TEW really doesn't leave a trail and was killed to try to set up you a/o Inzil. But the fact is, as little as the trail was, TEW left one, and whether he turned out gifted or not, there's got to be a reason TEW was a better no-trail target than others.

Yes, that is a part of it, but only one part. If I were to summarize what I think the kill was for, I would say the main point was no-trace. "Let us lay low. There are few players. If we stay low for a couple of days, we can win without any losses."

And what does it help us anyway, to know whether he was killed because the WWs thought him possibly more Gifted than, for example, me or Juan Domingo Perez over there?

I am not saying the WWs are not looking for Gifteds, I am sure they are, but they probably don't know anything very specific about them (otherwise, they'd already be dead).

And anyway, let me say once again, in my opinion, at this point this debate does not have much of a sense for the village. The knowledge (or, in fact, theory) that the WWs thought TEW 1% more Gifted than the rest of us does not really help the village in anything. If there was somebody shouting "I'm the Seer, I'm the Seer" all day and then next night the WWs won't attack him, now that would have been suspicious. But if we have only some vague notions, it is not of any help.

Sorry for probably writing it in a rather confusing way. But I think I have repeated myself several times, so the few main points should be apparent from there. Anyway, I think we should move on from "why was TEW killed", since I think we have revealed as much as we could, to "whom are we going to lynch".

EDIT: x-ed with Boro and Sally

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

In sum, figuring out who you don't want to lynch is good enough for Day 1, but eventually got to start getting serious suspects to send werewolves to the gibbets.

That wasn't my program, it was the summary of the post: looking at the list I just wrote and evaluating what I have learned. Looking at it, I realised I don't have any people screaming guilty at that point, but at least I knew who I did not want to vote, and then went on from there in my future thoughts up to the final decision several posts later.

I agree with Inzil yesterday, that if this was a "warning" to Elf-warrior, a vote is a pretty strong one. Even with it being Day 1. And honestly, Legate, I have no clue what you were warning TEW about. Was it, generally, just, if you have the time, shape up? Or care to explain what you meant again?

The warning was a "bonus". It was not the sole reason, of course, that would be silly - if you read what I was saying, you will see it - in fact, it was not a reason at all. What I said was: TEW is possibly the person about whom there is something I find unsettling, and that is the fact that he posts about random people and completely omits the "big" events. I don't have anything even as "good" about the others, so I am going to vote him. Even in case it does not lynch him, may it at least serve as a warning. Let this vote be a warning to you, TEW! Post something sensible, or I shall lynch you on basis of this! Something like that. It is the equivalent of the typical "lynch the quiet ones" thing. If you are innocent, you should post and not omit saying your opinions on important stuff. You are harming the village if you don't. If you are not innocent, then you fully deserved the vote.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I am not saying the WWs are not looking for Gifteds, I am sure they are, but they probably don't know anything very specific about them (otherwise, they'd already be dead).

And anyway, let me say once again, in my opinion, at this point this debate does not have much of a sense for the village. The knowledge (or, in fact, theory) that the WWs thought TEW 1% more Gifted than the rest of us does not really help the village in anything. If there was somebody shouting "I'm the Seer, I'm the Seer" all day and then next night the WWs won't attack him, now that would have been suspicious. But if we have only some vague notions, it is not of any help.

Well, actually, it is a help in my head. Whatever the chances are the wolves thought TEW was a gifted, it would have been based on something he said. It makes a pretty big difference over he was killed for no-trace. Because if they thought he was, then from the wolves perspective he was saying something that was probably true about one of them. Could be in his vote for Inzil, if Inzil's a wolf, or his slightly wolvish vibe he got from you. But I can't see either you or Inzil being bothered much, by vague and slight suspicions if you were wolves.

The hindsight that he was an ordo, doesn't change the fact that if the wolves thought there was a chance he was gifted, he said something to make them think it. And thus there is probably more truth that can be found in what he said about people, than what you seem to want to make it.

Having said that, I admit to be focusing too much on TEW so far today, and there is the voting that also needs to be looked at more.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That wasn't my program, it was the summary of the post: looking at the list I just wrote and evaluating what I have learned. Looking at it, I realised I don't have any people screaming guilty at that point, but at least I knew who I did not want to vote, and then went on from there in my future thoughts up to the final decision several posts later.

That's essentially what I was trying to say. That you were being consistent in wanting to "lynch wisely," and that it is understandable for Day 1. In so far, as it's how I approach Day 1's too.

[satansaloser2005]

Incidentally, we have at least two players in danger of modfire toDay. This does not bode well. We need everyone to participate and vote, or the wolves will win without a fight.

That means you, new kids. You vote or you die. That is all.

*stern!Sally is stern*

I'm also proposing the radically stupid idea of, if the modfire candidates don't show up by Dusk, just killing one of them. It would be better to waste a lynch on an absent innocent than to have three die in one Day. I'm just putting this up for consideration; I'm hoping it won't be necessary.

[Kitanna]

*sneaking on for three minutes before her lunch ends*

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I'm also proposing the radically stupid idea of, if the modfire candidates don't show up by Dusk, just killing one of them. It would be better to waste a lynch on an absent innocent than to have three die in one Day. I'm just putting this up for consideration; I'm hoping it won't be necessary.

We run a lot of risk doing this. We may save ourselves too many innocent loses, but we also buy the wolves time as well. I'd rather not waste my vote on people who are in danger of modfire. I want to use my vote on someone I actually suspect. And if everyone says "well they're dead anyway" and votes like that we have no trail to follow on Day 3 where voting is concerned. It's easier to hide behind comments, but hiding behind votes is oh so much harder.

Had more to say, but I gotta run again. I just had to comment on this idea now though.

[satansaloser2005]

As Boro would say, fairy nuff. It's not a plan I'd want to put into action, but I'd probably try it if I didn't like where the lynch was headed (e.g. someone I trusted was alone on the block).

Besides, I see it benefiting us innocents more than the villains, at least from a numbers standpoint. From an evidence perspective, however, it's fairly useless. :/

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Anyway, I think we should move on from "why was TEW killed", since I think we have revealed as much as we could, to "whom are we going to lynch".

I concur. The Pitch votes (and yes, that includes mine) should naturally be our focus, I think.

Why did I vote for him? I said so here and here.

Kitanna's and G55;s x/d with mine. Over an hour later, Bom came in with his, and sealed Pitch's fate.

G55 has said hers was "out of spite". Since it led to his lynch, that would seem an especially questionable reason.

Kit's was better reasoned.

Bom's, by virtue of the timing, and the somewhat intense interactions between him and Pitch, might look the worst.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

We run a lot of risk doing this. We may save ourselves too many innocent loses, but we also buy the wolves time as well. I'd rather not waste my vote on people who are in danger of modfire. I want to use my vote on someone I actually suspect. And if everyone says "well they're dead anyway" and votes like that we have no trail to follow on Day 3 where voting is concerned. It's easier to hide behind comments, but hiding behind votes is oh so much harder.

Sensible!Kit is sensible, at least on this score. Lynching a likely modfire is not something I could get behind.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

As Boro would say, fairy nuff. It's not a plan I'd want to put into action, but I'd probably try it if I didn't like where the lynch was headed (e.g. someone I trusted was alone on the block).

Besides, I see it benefiting us innocents more than the villains, at least from a numbers standpoint. From an evidence perspective, however, it's fairly useless. :/

Greenie always gets annoyed if I bring this up with mod-fires. If it's just one person who may be modfired we vote to lynch. It extends the game by 1 phase. (Gives us another night, in which with the hunter/ranger still presumably alive would hopefully extend it more). But with 2 modfires, I don't think we gain the extra phase.

Worst case scenario, they're both innocent, and we lynch one of the mod-fires. That leaves 7 innocents, 3 wolves. And 2 days to get a wolf. And we essentially give up trying to lynch a wolf today.

Or, we lose the 2 mod-fires, they're both innocent, and we lynch another innocent. 6 innocents, 3 wolves. Still get 2 days to get a wolf. But we aren't giving up the lynch chance for a wolf.

Sorry, sally, with 2 mod-fires, there's no gain to be made by voting to lynch one of them. Better to use the chance today voting someone else and hope one of the 3 is a wolf.

Edit: crossed with Inzil

[satansaloser2005]

What do you mean, gain an extra phase? Modfires lose us phases (assuming they're innocent, that is).

I'm really fine either way, but you're being pretty cavalier with our numbers.

Speaking of Greenie, when is she expecting to return?

[Boromir88]

Yesterday's votes:

Kath ---> sally
Pitch ---> G55
Legate ---> TEW
Inzil ---> Pitch
Kitanna ---> Pitch
G55 ---> Pitch
Bom ---> Pitch (4)
Boro ---> Kath
TEW ---> Inzil
sally ---> TEW (2)
Nerwen ---> Kath (2)

Can't really glean much from the late votes. Out of all of them, I still think Kath's reasoning looks the most suspicious, but that's all I've got on her right now. Not going to bang on about it, but I hope she can get back today so I can hear an explanation on it.

Of the Pitch voters, Bom's reasons are the most suspicious. His vote for Pitch came after a post where he sort of backs off:

Originally Posted by Bom, #53

Well, while I disagree with the idea Pitchwife's explanation for his behavior so far, it is enough to get me off his back for now (though he's still a candidate for voting until/unless somebody else starts acting suspicious). I'd hate to vote G55 for what seems to me like a genuine peacekeeping effort, and nobody else is really standing out much to me.

He sort of backs off, but doesn't, by leaving the door open to vote Pitch if nothing else happens.

The 3 who cross-voted (Inzil, Kitanna, G55) look good enough all for different reasons. Inzil thinks Pitch jumped too quickly at Bom, then switched too quickly on G55.

Kitanna thinks Pitch tried to pull in an innocent-Bom, while pushing back a wolf-Bom. Bom looks like he tried doing the same thing in the post #53 quoted above.

G55 did a process of elimination and was left with either Pitch or Bom.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Bom's, by virtue of the timing, and the somewhat intense interactions between him and Pitch, might look the worst.

I don't think the timing matters, unless he was hoping to make sure there wouldn't be enough remaining votes to have a bandwagon against him? That is to say, just because you, Kit, and G55 all cross-voted, doesn't make the timing of your votes any better or worse than Bom's. 3-4 votes is really all it takes to lynch on Day 1.

Even if the 3 were cross-votes, all of you essentially put Pitch up to be lynched. Or at least insure that if he wasn't there would have to be another bandwagon from the later voters to save him. Bom's vote coming later did pretty much seal it, but the bandwagon as already there and to save Pitch would have meant consensus from me, Bom, TEW, sallyand Nerwen.

The only one I would have felt comfortable pushing harder for would have been Kath. But sally didn't seem bothered by Kath's vote and wasn't going to vote for her. And it was feeling like a throwaway even before Bom's vote.