WWXXXV: Werewolves among the Wolf-men

[the guy who be short]

Guy considered what Nogrod had just said. "I do not know why you are so sure that there is a wolf among those who contribute so little, Nogrod. However, what you say is true: if these people are wolves, their silence means they will likely live a long time, avoiding suspicion. It is dangerous to focus only on those who are loud; indeed, we are more likely to accidentally accuse the loud, for they say much more, which can be misinterpreted and lead to doom."

He paused for thought.

"This being said, I feel quite certain of your wolvery, dear Sir. Your wish to lynch those who will die anyway is wasteful. The upside, higher villager numbers, comes at the expense of not lynching any of our own suspects! The same could be achieved if everybody abstained from voting, so nobody was lynched at all. Village numbers could stay high for as long as possible, but in the end the Wolves would consume us all. Surely you can see that this way of doing things is madness? I feel that you cannot be unaware of this, and so I must conclude that you are a wolf, trying to mislead and gain trust as early as possible. If I am correct, this would lead me to believe that the quiet trio are in fact innocents, who you name in order to lead us astray. Your fellow wolf must, I feel, be in the Rikae-Lhuna-Mith-Brinn group. Of these, Brinn seems unlikely as you voted together yesterday, so the first three are most likely to be your fellow, in my view."

Satisfied, he sat back and waited for the others to air their thoughts.

[Nogrod]

Nogrod frowned and turned towards the guy.

"Do you have wax in your ears or is there something evil in your intentions? You said that:
"The upside, higher villager numbers, comes at the expense of not lynching any of our own suspects!"
Right. I have all the time said - and that is many times - that when there are no better choices, when there are no good cases or strong suspicions. Only then it is reasonable to lynch those we don't know anything or who are facing death anyway. As soon as one has a clue or a case it's surely more resonable to go with that.

These are so basic things that I'm getting more and more uneasy with you. Although I still think you more distracted by this sleeping curse than an actual villain just because of how I interpret the actions of last Night.

Had Saeros not died already I could bet you to be a cobbler of some sort... Maybe you're Androg then?"

[the guy who be short]

Guy scowled at Nogrod once again. "I did not say at any point that you have not tried to get us out of this mess. You have been most active. I said that your priorities seem to lie beyond group preservation and in personal preservation.

Now, though, I have just realised a flaw in my argument. For if you were a wolf, why would you vote for somebody you thought was a wolf in self-preservation. This doesn't make much sense. On the one hand, it points to your innocence, but on the other, you could have fabricated your reason for voting for me.

It is not strictly true that your vote was insignificant, as Mac had not voted yet, and you could have perhaps tried to convince him some more. This would probably not have worked though. There were also retractables; for example, Brinn could have been convinced to cast a useful vote. However, it was quite late at that point and so perhaps it was almost insignificant.

And now your vote is confusing me even more. You said you'd be willing to vote for Shasta, and yet you didn't. I would like this explained, because it seems as if you avoided the Shasta-bandwagon, which would lead to your name being associated with the lynching of an innocent. Why did you not vote for Shasta?

This vote is absolutely bizarre and I cannot claim to fathom it. My suspicion of you has fallen, because, while self-preservation is to be condemned, that does seem to be the only reason I can see for voting for me at such a time, and that would mean you were innocent. But the why-not-Shasta question haunts me, and I am now in a state of confusion.

I must vote in about four hours; I hope you have answered me by then."

Clutching his head, Guy receded.

[the guy who be short]

"But Nogrod!" Guy said heatedly "a random lynch is better than no lynch! A 2 in 11 chance of getting a wolf is better than a 0 chance of getting a wolf. At any point, it is always better to lynch than to not lynch."

He lay down for a nap, and he really meant it this time. He was snoring within seconds.

[Nogrod]

"You're right and you're wrong. Random lynch is better than no lynch as it gives you a chance of 2:11. Correct. But lynching someone who is about to die anyway gives you the very same possibility. Not more, not less. I have never suggested that we do not lynch anyone. That idea was your own fabrication. I have only said that with no better candidates we should try our "random"-lynch (2:11 chances) with someone who might die anyhow and thence not give the wolves a kind of extra kill...

About yesterDay's voting. Mac voted a minute before the deadline and I crossposted with him - and Brinn's vote came three minutes before the deadline while I was writing my own post. So there was basically no time to try and convince anyone over anything.

But why I didn't vote for Shasta? Well, let me ask you, why should I have voted for him? He was a goner one minute before the deadline whatever I did or did not. So basically my vote had no significance whatsoever - and as I had said earlier, I had nothing against lynching Shasta back then so his lynching was okay for me and thence I had no reason to try and change the things in any way (not that I could have done that in the first place). That's why I decided to try to help myself for the Night as I suspected you the most of those who had actually played on Day1.

So that was not personal priorities over the common preservation as I had no chance to make a difference in the lynching at that moment. It was an attempt at personal preservation after there was nothing I could do anymore to influence the voting-result.

But now I finally need my nap..."

[Rikae]

"This is strange. If I recall correctly, Nogrod said:

"About yesterDay's voting. Mac voted a minute before the deadline and I crossposted with him"

but then:

"But why I didn't vote for Shasta? Well, let me ask you, why should I have voted for him? He was a goner one minute before the deadline whatever I did or did not. So basically my vote had no significance whatsoever - and as I had said earlier, "


How did he know his vote had no significance, if he cross-posted with Mac?"

[Rikae]

"A few other things I'd like to mention...
Isabell's response to me doesn't decrease my suspicion of her. In these types of situations, the behavior of one's ancestors can be a very good predictor of one's own behavior - to the point that one might say the ancestors are indeed here. One does not live as long as I have without observing such things.
Besides, you persist in suspecting Beleg and Turin, which is not helpful; and your tone feels quite defensive, though you criticize Nogrod for defending himself. It is not entirely true that we should not be thinking of ourselves; if Nogrod is innocent, losing him would be a worse blow to the village than losing certain others.

Lhuna, perhaps you're stressed about having your kill thwarted last night? I don't think I care for your open speculation about the identities of our protectors. Why would an innocent do such a thing? You are wise enough to know better, I think.

Xyzzy has spoken only enough to remain alive, which annoys me. I doubt a wolf would sleep continuously, to the point of being killed by the curse Guy mentioned; but speaking once, and unhelpfully at that, is more likely wolf behavior. The post itself felt innocent enough, but the pattern of oversleeping does not; or, even if innocent, is shameful.

Now, I wouldn't mind a little of that stew..."

[the guy who be short]

Guy woke unexpectedly from his sleep, hearing the end of Nogrod's oration.

"Nogrod," he said, "voting for somebody who is going to die anyway is the same as voting for nobody, because you're not lynching anybody extra. If you like, view it as such. My way, we vote for somebody with a 2/11 chance of being a wolf, and then somebody else dies automatically with a 2/11 chance of being a wolf. We have a 4/11 chance of lynching a wolf there. However, your way, because only one person is lynched, we have only a 2/11 chance of getting a wolf. In effect, voting for somebody who will die anyway is an abstention.

Rikae - I have looked over the voting record, and Mac did say he would vote for Shasta long before he actually did. So Noggie did know his vote was useless - I checked, and his was the last vote that could have been cast (barring other retractions) aside from Mith and the no-showers xyzzy and Isa.

What you say, Noggie, reassures me very much. It seems I was wrong to say you put self-preservation first, and I apologise. I still disagree with you about lynching somebody who would die, but that is now a moot point as it no longer has relevance to our community.

I must say, I find Nogrod quite innocen now. Which leaves me in a predicament, as I must vote soon, have no time to mull over what everybody else has said again (it being my nap time) and must vote in two hours or not at all.

I will, after all, probably go for a quiet person. They are too dangerous as they give us nothing to go on. At this moment, xyzzy seems likely once again, more so than Izzy, who is nowcontributing something again.

Fare ye well, my fellows. Goodnight for now."

He fell asleep again. Rikae looked at him funny and muttered smething about narcolepsy.

[Rikae]

"Guy said: My way, we vote for somebody with a 2/11 chance of being a wolf, and then somebody else dies automatically with a 2/11 chance of being a wolf. We have a 4/11 chance of lynching a wolf there.

Are you sure? That doesn't sound right to me...

Isabell is contributing, yes, but, if you ask me, she isn't thereby making herself less suspicious - and we can do better than merely voting for the quietest person among us; everyone has spoken, so suspicion can play a role in our decisions.

In fact,
++Isabellkya"

[the guy who be short]

Guy poked Rikae - it was only fair, she kept poking everybody else with that stick of hers. "Yes," he said, "it is right, if every one of us has an equal chance of being a wolf, and we want to maximize wolf-killings, it makes more sense to lynch more people.

However," he continued, "I agree with what you have said concerning the Lhunatic. It is never conducive to ponder the gifteds aloud, and you are right to say she should know better. This gives me reason to worry about her. I must say, Rikae, that your clear manner makes me think you innocent, despite your staff-related violence issues...

However, I am less sure of your suspicion of Izzy. Her confusion about Beleg and Turin may be due to her being a foreigner who does not well know their nature. What does worry me about her is her reticence in suspecting anybody - thus far she has only displayed mild suspicion of Nogrod.

It is indeed vexing that xyzzy has said only one thing, and very little therein. I do not understand his suspicion of Mith and his suspicion of me seems a knee-jerk reaction. I think, once again, he will be most likely to get my vote toDay."

Rikae nodded and poked the sleeping body of xyzzy with her stick. It mumbled a little, but didn't wake up, so she sighed and gave up.

[Macalaure]

"I'm afraid I have to remain on a tangent, but Nogrod's answer to me is not satisfactory and I don't have anything better to add to our cause.

Nogrod said:

Thinking that the wolves were really intelligent and managed to pick a good kill for them and Beleg just happened by chance to be on their way is totally unbelievable the odds being 1:11.

I did not say that. Maybe the wolves did not take the obvious choice and our dear Strongbow expected that and protected the person which looked like the most obvious kill for somebody who didn't want to make an obvious kill? This is far from impossible.
But even if you are right and the wolves picked a bad and obvious kill, then who do you think was this unlucky/lucky person? I mean, there is more than one who was considered innocent by the majority (what you said was the wolves' reasoning). I don't see only one obvious choice, which, obviously, makes the choice rather unobvious.
Not only do you not have the premises to prove your theory, your theory itself is also not very applicable, I'm afraid.
And saying that most probably one "non-dilettant" outlaw is among the wolves additionally undermines it, unless it is Mith, of course.


Right now, I am somewhat suspicious of Nogrod. His vote was strange, I have never experienced any of his fore-fathers to be so defensive about his actions and he seems to enjoy talking about minor subjects very much (f.ex. the theory about whether to lynch silent players or not), which is suspicious even though it is in character for him. I could also easily imagine that the reason he tries to convince us that the wolves are sleepy and inexperienced outlaws is because he himself has just been outsmarted by bow-dropping Beleg. But this doesn't fit into one picture with his pointing out that Turin might be a sleepy one, too. Therefore I remain only "somewhat" suspicious.*

Guy, Lhuna, Brinn and Rikae all seem decently innocentish to me at the moment, which is slightly disturbing. Of Mith I cannot say anything and Gil is away. I can understand Rikae's suspicion of Isabellkya, but I'm not sure whether I share it.

As I already said, I still feel very Day-One-ish today..."


*in another time, ages from now, this little paragraph would have been infested with little yellow faces.


(x-ed with the Guy)

[Rikae]

Rikae shook her head at Guy's reply.
"Everyone also has an equal chance of being innocent, though. A random lynch has a 9/11 chance of killing an innocent.
By your ...innovative... formula, two random deaths have a 18/11 chance of killing an innocent; therefore either your math is wrong, or your intentions are."
With that, Rikae stuck her tongue out at Guy.

[the guy who be short]

"Hmm. You've got me there, Rikae. Let me have a think...

If we kill two people, that chance that both are wolves is (2/11)^2 = 4/121 = 3.3%

The chance that one is a wolf and the other is not is 2(2/11x9/11) = 36/121 = 29.8%

The chance of no wolves is (9/11)^2 = 81/121 = 66.9%

Now, if we only killed one person, the chance of a wolf is 2/11 = 18%, which is far lower than the 33.1% we'd expect if we lynched two people.

The maths may have been slightly off (3.2% overestimation in fact) but the results are still the same.

All of this, as I've said, now being a moot point." Guy stuck his tongue out at Rikae, but she swiftly hit him with her stick and denounced his frivolity.

His brain steaming from the calculation, and his leg from the staff, Guy stepped outside for a drink from the pool before returning quickly..

[Rikae]

"You overestimated the results to promote your plan, AND smuggled in an anachronistic calculator! Shame on you.

With your "4/11", it looked as though you were simply multiplying your wolf-odds heedlessly.

In any event, it's a senseless plan. If we mass-lynched 9 random people, the chance of winning the game is 66.9%. Shall we do it? Or would you rather wait until we have some more evidence to base our decisions on, and improve our odds?"

[the guy who be short]

"Come now!" Guy replied. "An accidental overestimation of 3.3% (I thought it was 4/11 = 36.4% when in reality it was 33.1%) is hardly going to change anybody's mind; it's still obvious that not wasting a lynch is beneficial to the community. And what plan? There is no plan to do this because nobody has been quiet enough to be cursed... You seem intent on focussing discussion on this irrelevant point.

What is this calculator you speak of, eh? Never heard of such a thing...

And the difference is, we can't mass lynch 9 people. We can only lynch one person per Day (for some reason). To forfeit this lynching in the name of preserving numbers would be foolish."

[the guy who be short]

"Alas, I must vote now, for I feel a great weariness taking me," Guy yawned. "I shall not now awake until Tomorrow.

++XYZZY

Because the quiet are deadly, and he has given us very little to work with regarding his innocence or guilt.

As it stands, I shall tell you my thoughts on each member of our village:

Nogrod feels more innocent than guilty, but you can never tell with him. I also feel quite sure that Mac is innocent because of his manner of thinking.

Below them comes Izzy, whose comments about working together and general demeanor make me feel she is innocent. Speak more, dear, or you'll be lynched by the likes of Rikae.

Athough I thought Rikae quite innocent until now, I have doubts. Her insistence to distract us from coming to conclusions by continuing a discussion about a moot point - lynching the silent - makes me wary. I also dislike her jumping on Izzy - her reasoning is based on supposed hints in Izzy's words, her not knowing who Beleg and Turin are. This all seems fabricated to me, an attempt to target an easy lynch. I'll be watching Rikae.

Likewise, I do not trust Lhuna for her debating the gifteds.

Gil-Galad and Mith I cannot decide on, for they too have been very quiet, though with more excuse than xyzzy.

I am also undecided on Brinn. She seems to me to be a bit too defensive. I accused her - obviously in jest - of wolvery based on her looks. She has since been dedicated to lynching me.

That is that. Good night, dear people."

Yawning, Guy retired to bed.

[Lhunardawen]

There were hurried footsteps, and Lhuna rushed in.

"My apologies, I had lost track of the time! But really, you should try stepping outside - it's beautiful out there..."

Lhuna shook her head hard twice, as though to dislodge any distracting thoughts, and said:

"First off, I don't think I was speculating too openly about the gifteds. I was merely trying to think of what could possibly link tgwbs and Nogrod to explain what I noticed of them. It so happened that the gifteds were an option, you certainly couldn't deny that, and presented it. That's it. I neither dwelt on the idea nor pushed it."

She walked around slowly in a large imaginary circle, her eyes on the ground.

"It has been considered a big possibility that at least one wolf is among the silent ones. But don't you think that such a strategy - if you could call it that - could be too obvious? A wolf naturally would fear saying too much at the risk of slipping, and so would rather clam up. But these could be shrewd wolves we're up against. We should remember that these spies of Morgoth could blend well with us in the Day, speaking much sense and misleading us in the process. I'm just trying to say that we shouldn't limit our suspects too much to those who are quiet.

"That said, I wish to express my growing suspicion of Nogrod. Thus far he had been very open to us, what with saying that with his vote last Night he had hoped to preserve himself for another Day. He had made known to us that he thought he would be the first victim, and thus needed to do something to make himself suspicious toDay for the wolves not to kill him. He also speculated on the possible identity of the wolves based on last Nights non-kill, grouping all of us into three in the process.

"I now understand the self-preservation bit of his unusual vote, but it makes me feel really uneasy, how he insists that he would have been killed last Night. It's a rather bold assumption, in my opinion. Granted, his ancestors are known for their wolf-hunting prowess, but all the same...it was to me as though he was parading the fact that he's yet alive, and that's because he managed successfully to use his own life, in a manner of speaking, as bait.

"Another thing that gives me great discomfort is how, in my opinion, he's underestimating the wolves. It's a stupid mistake, he seems to say, that the wolves picked so obvious a victim that Beleg could protect, so the wolves must be so-and-so! But the events of the Night were likely to be more complicated than he's making it.

"What he's doing here, as I see it, is making it so much apparent to us that he's innocent. Of course we who are innocent know we are, and would like to convince the others that we indeed are, but Nogrod's way of doing it, how he's being so blatant yet subtle about the whole thing - it's not sitting right with me."

Lhuna stopped walking, and swayed a moment as though dizzy. She sat down on the ground and closed her eyes.

[Rikae]

"I don't wish to distract; I just became distracted, myself, by your strange estimate. I thought it should be closer to 3/11. Certainly it's irrelevant, and I don't really expect anyone else to pay attention or care, nor was I seriously accusing you of inflating the numbers. It was all meant in a light-hearted way.

As for Isabell, she can find out easily enough who our protecters are; but, more than her words, I distrust her for her defensive tone and the feeling she gives of contributing the bare minimum and attempting more to avoid suspicion than to help.

I could very well change my vote, though, before the day is done, in which case I would consider voting for Lhuna or Xyzzy, or even Nogrod."

EDIT: X'd with Lhuna

[Mithalwen]

Mithalwen spoke again at last. " I will consider all that has been said and will pass comment shortly. All I will say for now is that my unusual silence is not due to guilt but the fact that though our straits be dire there are other demands on me other than giving it consideration. "

The woman sighed and considered the words that had been spoken.

[Lhunardawen]

Lhuna opened her eyes again, but remained where she sat.

"As for the others...

"My suspicion of tgwbs has now diminished, with his explanation for his early vote yesterDay, and the sensible observations he has given toDay. But that thing with all those numbers...it's distracting, whatever it is. I don't know what it is, but if I did, I'm quite sure I would be hating it.

"Same goes for Rikae, who encouraged the numbers discussion. But otherwise I'm inclined to find her quite innocent, as she seems to speak her mind just as it is. Only one thing I wish to point out: We cannot be our own ancestors. It is one thing to consider the past in dealing with the present, but another to wholly rely on it. We who now live can choose to tread different paths from those who came before us.

"Mac hasn't said anything to make me more suspicious of him.

"Now for Brinn, xyzzy, and Izzy...they are complicated. I know I said we shouldn't limit ourselves to suspecting those who are quiet, but I didn't say we should drop all suspicion of them. Izzy had made a point to us about her vegetarianism, cast about some suspicion, but had not followed them up. Of them three, I consider her to have given the most substantial...speech. But even then it is not enough.

"Brinn summarised last Night's votes, and suspected the xyzzy-voters, but said nothing else. To me, she's the most suspicious of the three. I can't explain it. You could call it gut feel, I suppose.

"xyzzy is our Shasta of the Day, if I could put it that way. Could this mean he is likewise innocent? Or is he, now knowing Shasta was innocent, following his footsteps so that we would think he too is innocent?

"The Night draws nigh, and bed calls me. I shall cast my vote in a while, and for now give you all time to speak."

[Nogrod]

Nogrod opened his eyes at last and yawned.

"I've been doing some thinking myself too and would like to share some of my latest thoughts.

Yes, I was pretty convinced in the morning that the wolves had just made a total blunder and therefore considered them to be somewhat short-sighted. Although dear Lhuna it's not a bold assumption from someone of my family to expect to be killed in the first Night though. I'm quite used to been dreamt or killed pretty early so I kind of take it for granted and basically try to fight against that destiny by being controversial enough if I'm innocent or smooth enough if I'm a baddie.

I might add that if my memory serves me right there was basically no suspicions on me on Day1 and and I admittedly was the loudest and all around. So someone whom the wolves would like to get rid of sooner than later. Adding these two things (my family's past exeriences + the Day1 non-suspicion) together made me think I was an obvious choice for both Beleg and the wolves.

But then I started to think back on other possibilities as well as I was getting afraid that I had been too hasty. And sure: if Lhuna or Rikae are both innocents - but neither is Beleg or Turín - then they might have been the choices of the last Night as well. That being the case there was some luck in last Night's protection and consequently our wolves - or at least another one of them is much more cunning I have allowed her/him to be so far.

Yes. I think it is important to see all the possibilities. Although here I think these three people are the ones between whom the choices were made last Night. The wolves have no reason to kill the silents and Beleg has no reason to protect one either - unless he protects a silent Turín but that surely was not last Night. Mac and tgwbs were suspected enough for the wolves to be happy to wait and see whether they could be lynched later.

Beleg knows the answer but he should obviously remain silent about it for the time being. I hope he himself will make the most out of his information."

Nogrod rose up and took a little walk to the pond.

"I'll just have a drink and will be back soon enough."

[Brinniel]

Brinn shook his head in disgust. All those numbers...he couldn't stand it. Finally, he snapped:

"Enough with the math and calculations! They are just confusing me rather than helping. Besides, an argument should be based off of words, not numbers."

Brinn shuddered.

"Now, I still find tgwbs and Nogrod to be suspicious, particularly for their votes yesterday, and I believe it's quite possible that there is a wolf among them. And with the heated debate that has gone on between the two earlier, I think it's most likely one or the other, not both. The question is, which one?

"Rikae seems to me sincere in her words, and gives off an innocentish vibe. However, I do disagree with her vote for Izzy. I find that when it comes to her questioning the Gifteds, Izzy is more confused than actually guilty."

EDIT: X-ed with Nogrod

[Lhunardawen]

Lhuna lightly chuckled. "Maybe you shouldn't have told us your survival strategy...your descendants will not be helped by that.

Just loud enough for Nogrod to hear, she added: "I think the wolves won't necessarily want to kill the loudest first, as they're ones who could quite easily get into trouble. And you still do not comfort me."

[Mithalwen]

"I do not believe that our survival to this day is based on fluke. I believe that our foes are cunning and our protectors astute. I fear that they may be prevented from protecting the same person twice running so that the life saved is but for another day. Given that our ordeal is likely to be of short duration, I think it is likely that the wolves decided to forgo a tactical assault and went for an obvious target. If the fate of the siblings is linked as Nogrod suggests - the possibility of a killing two bird withone stone may have counterbalanced the desire for a certain kill.

Also, if, as I suspect, there is at least one wolf who is an active participant in our discussions it may well suit them to pursue the quiet by day and the vocal by night. This makes sense to me know but despite the sleep I have had the care of our situation has fuddled my mind. While we will learn more by keeping alive the speakers, I think there is a wolf among them but which?

While it would be unjust to attack someone who is absent seeking for food as I did yesterday, the uncommon loquacity of Master Gil disturbs me"

Mithalwen sat back to ponder anew.

[xyzzy]

Now it would seem none of you know anything of basic statistics!

One of the most remarkable truths about our situation is that we have a much greater chance of winning each day if at the start of the day there are an even number of us alive. Plus, since the moment the wolves overtake us in numbers we've lost, the longer it takes us to reach that point, the better off we are.

I'm going to support not lynching anyone.

[Lhunardawen]

With a big yawn, Lhuna walked over to her corner, wrapped herself in a blanket, and shut her eyes. She was immediately poked by someone.

"What? Oh, I forgot:

++NOGROD

Now let me sleep in peace."

[Macalaure]

"The day is nearing its end and soon the time to cast a vote has come.

His last speech has me feeling better about Nogrod, for the moment. I will therefore not vote for him.

Neither will I vote for Lhuna, who I think is innocent.

I'm not that sure yet of the innocence of Rikae, Brinn and the Guy, but I'm not suspicious of one of these either.

Gil was not able to speak today, otherwise Mîm would have been left unguarded, and Mith is still catching up.

This only leaves Isabellkya and Xyzzy, by the rule "if you're not suspicious of anyone, vote the one you're least unsuspicious of". I will now ponder in silence which of the two I will vote."

[Nogrod]

"I'm still all in for lynching those who seem to offer us little or no help as I don't have a better case against anyone more vocal. But of those people I would say just this if I'm not here toMorrow morning. Be careful of those who look good and nice. They're most often the fanged ones.

So Xyzzy, Isabell or Gil? I do indeed believe that this is not only a vote against non-contributors but also a wolf-hunt. We should just nail the right one.

I'm going to delve in my memories of their participation and will come back soon enough with my thoughts on them.

[Mithalwen]

"If I were going to vote on pique I would vote Isabellkya. I did not labour hard all day yesterday for people to get food faddy. " Mithalwen said, "it is possible that she is vegetarian not because she loves animals but because she hates plants, and as the Vala Yavanna said, they need protection more..."

[Brinniel]

Brinn folded his arms, thinking carefully.

"Lynch no one? Well xyzzy, that is certainly an interesting strategy. But I would have to disagree. Even if we don't lynch anyone, the wolves will still take an innocent down each Night and it won't be long before they overcome us. The only way we can take down a wolf is by lynching them, and while there's always a risk that we may lynch an innocent, we must take our chances.

"With that said, xyzzy's weird new strategy he has come up with makes me think he might be a little more on the innocentish side. After all, if the wolves can get innocents lynched and kill them at Night, the faster they will win. Then again, perhaps xyzzy is a wolf and is afraid that either he or his comrade will be lynched toDay...

"Of everyone here, I find Rikae and Izzy to be likely Innocents, and tgwbs and Nogrod to be most suspicious. Of everyone else, I'm still not sure about.

"The sun sets in a half an hour. And I will be voting for either tgwbs or Nogrod."

EDIT: X-ed from Mac down

[Mithalwen]

"I would hold off on Nogrod, Brinn, TGWBS has set off my alarm bells ...." Mithalwen said casting in her memory .." yes his early attack on Xyzzy - seemed remarkable but why" . The tall woman in grey tried hard ot recall why this had stuck in her memory.

[Macalaure]

"Isabellkya's suspicion of our valiant Helm and Bow is probably honest confusion, albeit eye-brow-raising. She was also suspicious of Nogrod for fairer reasons.

Xyzzy was suspicious of Guy and Mith, for retaliatory or non-existant reasons.

Neither of the two has voted so far and Xyzzy even says he would like us to lynch nobody, which is ridiculous.

I'm strongly leaning towards lynching Xyzzy now. What do the others think?"

[Nogrod]

"I'd give Gil the benefit of doubt as he's not here right now.

With the two others I do have a problem. Xyzzy plays less and his style of play annoys me a lot more - and were he a wolf his possible victory would be bad indeed but he looks somewhat sincerish. Isabell contributes a little more but with her I'm much more insecure with.

I'm not sure if I would vote for tgwbs again. That is a possibility. But he might just be Androg whose special mission is to get rid of Beleg - whom he mistook me earlier toDay and then backed off when he realised yhay no bandwaggong was starting. Then he would be counted as an innocent and thence we probably shouldn't kill him. Maybe Shasta wasn't a cobbler but a goodie who wished to kill Turín? That kind of roles could be possible - and looking at things around not totally unbelievable."

[xyzzy]

"Macalaure, what is so ridiculous about suggesting we use our brains rather than our fists? Of course we eventually need to kill a wolf, but my point is, we have a much better chance of doing that if we lynch no one today."

[Rikae]

Rikae, hearing Xyzzy's remark about statistics, shot a cold glance at him.
"I certainly hope you are joking, my boy. Though it has been nearly a decade since I've studied that particular topic, I don't think I've forgotten everything; and I also happen to know that that short fellow over there has studied it quite recently, and the gentleman in the leather cloak knows more about mathematics than all of us put together.
I don't know what exactly you're trying to accomplish with that strange statement you just made, but it can't be good.
Not lynch anyone? I suppose the wolves will also be kind enough not to kill anyone by night, eh?
Even if you do jest, you have shown yourself to be flippant and unhelpful; you disrespect your elders and your name is impossible to pronounce.
I'm afraid you'll have to go, sonny.
--Isabellkya
++Xyzzy"

[Brinniel]

"Well Mithalwen, I am leaning more towards voting tgwbs. I've suspected him from the beginning with his vote for xyzzy. Then toDay he votes him again, which I think is a mistake. He bandwagons against Nogrod, and then suddenly changes his mind and says, 'I find Nogrod quite innocent now.' Something about his tone just doesn't seem right, plus his use of statistics only seemed to cause distraction.

"In comparison, Nogrod has at least seemed more reasonable in some points, and if he is actually innocent, he would be a great loss.

"The only thing I am worried about is that my vote may be a waste. After all, it seems that most are interested in voting someone else."

EDIT: X-ed with multiple posts

[Mithalwen]

"But" said Mithalwen, "you said Xyzzy, that our situation was better if we had an even number at the start of the day. There are 10 of us now... we cannot hope that the wolves will be foiled again - well we can hope but I fear such fortune is less likely .. so to retain the even number tomorrow morning we must lynch tonight "..... shesat back struggling with maths but knowing that the time for a decision was nigh. She had suspected Guy forhis early vot for Xyzzy yesterday but now she wondered if he was right...

[Nogrod]

"I must say this Xyzzy speaks most strangely... is it because he knows he's one of the top candidates to be lynched and thence wishes to make this last minute appeal when he has no better candidatew to bring forwards as a contender?"

[Macalaure]

"++xyzzy" said Macalaure, "for reasons I and others have previously stated."

[Mithalwen]

"Well Brinniel I am in the strange position of finding two peopel suspicious but alas one of them is suspicious for suspecting so quickly someone I now find supicious. "