Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz

[Naria]

Naria hasn't posted, which probably doesn't surprise anyone.

*almost chokes on her bubble gum*Pff, says you!! This comment got under my skin a little bit Rikae and right under this you state the same about Eomer and Valier, but omit the crass 'doesn't surprise anyone' statement. And then there's this

in my first game I was quite talkative, as those who played with me might remember.

Yes I do remember that village. I do, however, disagree that you are playing the same way. Yes you were talkative, but not in a flood posting kind of way and you were much more helpful and reasonable. You have an air about you that is very unsettling to me in this village. Someone pointed out(can't remember who) that a wolf wouldn't be so bold as to post as much as you have and(as far as I can see) get into pretty much everyone's face like you have. I disagree with this. I believe that a wolf Rikae would do something out of the ordinary and flood post and have little spats within our group. It would be the perfect plan, do something that no one would think a wolf would do. Afterall, there is already one dancer that has fallen for it.

I will be keeping a close eye on you m'dear. For now, I am off to slumberland.

[Cailín]

The loud versus silent debate could go on forever. Of course I think Naria is quiet and creepy (all my ancestors agreed unanimously on this), but she does have that Day One grace she was referring to, and anyway, I think she has actually been more talkative than usual.

I cannot help but finding Farael's behaviour a bit suspicious. He posts quite a lot, and passionately too, and is all together too much in favour of lynching those silent ones. On the other hand, I think this may be normal behaviour from him when he is an ordinary.

Rikae seems very eager to get involved and appears overly helpful, but I actually think she is an innocent. Sure, she is somewhat defensive after Mormegil's vote; but then again, the vote was cast in a decidedly unpleasant manner. I am rather against the notion of forcing people to post, though. Friendly banter and floodposting that usually leads to little dialogues between people are just the sort of thing wolves could hide behind. After all, who believes something fanged and furry would be skilled in basic social chit-chat?

Mormegil is thus quite obviously innocent as well. Generally, the ruder he gets, the less likely he is to be a wolf. I have no idea how he did find out Eomer is innocent, but undoubtedly he is very right indeed.

Gah! As usual, I am inclined to believe everyone is completely blameless in this whole affair.

Folwren does seem a little out of the ordinary. And this is not based on her Stoic Countess-ness, but much more on the fact that she seems to act rather out of character in post #68, in which she calls Mormegil's post "appalling" and refuses to answer to Farael again.

But I am worried that it comes down to focusing on all those that have posted much again. Now I do agree that there was an outrageous amount of posting during the first four hours of the dance, but as words are the only thing we have going for us this game, this was to be expected.

Actually, I am disappointed Nogrod (yes, you especially) did not come up with some interesting, complex and confusing theory concerning the two Cobblers. While wolves can have some selfish interests and sacrifice their comrades (or in this case comrade) to sail to a personal victory, the Cobblers will ultimately have to defend the wolf they know the identity of. Their behaviour and death might be very telling this time, in a twisted Seer-like manner. Now I am not saying we should try and purposefully hunt down the Cobblers, that would be irrational and a waste of time, but it is interesting nonetheless.

None of the other dancers seem as yet very guilty or shifty to me, so I do hope one of the evil creatures will do something rash before the day is out.

[Macalaure]

Let's get to work, thought the mime, and instead of explaining his suspicions with his hands and feet he decided to just write his ideas down and show them to everybody.

"At the moment, I get an innocent feel from Farael, Celuien and Holbytlass. I also feel Kitanna innocent, which actually makes me suspicious in turn because I usually find her suspicious when she's innocent (that's why I understand morm's point on Farael)"

"My early suspicion of Folwren has subsided a little. Her 'Let's look at the people in the middle but also at those at the extremes' sounded pretty fluffy to me. On the other hand, I know she knows how to appear innocent when she's guilty and perhaps wouldn't have said this if she really was. She also made a little more sense afterwards."

"I don't think Rikae's defensiveness is suspicious. What is suspicious, no offense, is that to me she appears to try to be helpful without actually being helpful."

"morm is suspicious. 50 posts in 4 hours is silly? Why? It's in fact understandable after the long time of withdrawal from werewolf-infested villages. I've seen silent villages before and they're not necessarily the most fun."

"This leads me to my main suspect: Nogrod. He criticises my 'summary' because it made no sense and intended to draw suspicion towards the 'veterans'. This is nonsense. It's only goal was to be funny and there was not one reasonable claim outside of the PSs. Maybe you didn't get the joke, Nogrod, but you could've seen that if it was cobblering, it was the most ineffective cobblering there ever was.
Secondly, he suspects Folwren because she felt un-Foleyish to him. May I say that suspecting people because they do not feel like they're supposed to is very un-Noggish?
Another funny thing: He likes to lynch silent players and requests people to post, yet he does not say one word about morm's attempt to silence the village. Very strange.
Cailin makes a fair point on him, too. I miss a big what-to-do-about-the-cobblers -theory from him as well, but I'm not sure whether this means something."

"If we kill people who make little sense or act very suspicious, it's not improbable that a cobbler bites the dust along the way. Since the cobbler knows one of the wolves, this might not be the worst thing that could happen. At any rate it's better than to lynch and innocent (well, of course it is...)."

[Lalwendë]

In skips the naughty/nice elf who has been hard at work (in bed and then out shopping early actually) looking out for those sneaks, fibbers and cads on behalf of Father Christmas.

Naria's silence was suspicious, but now Eomer's is even more suspicious. Or has he merely been stuck in a snowdrift somewhere? Well, ice drift at least, it being verrrry cold today. He could be playing silent for a good reason or a bad reason. I shall decide later...

Mormegil is slightly too chirpy and cheeky. Even if he is not a wolf then he better be careful or he will be getting nothing more than a satsuma and a shiny half shilling in his stocking.

Cailin and Macalaure seem to be the analysts here. Do we trust those who analyse? Kath and Folwren seem level headed and determined on a course of action. Is this just a smoke screen? Maybe, maybe not. Maybe I should tell father Christmas that if they have been good they should all get sets of compasses and rulers and things for Christmas, or maybe a Chemistry set.

Rikae is going with gut feelings, which makes me feel more comfortable (and I think she might get something good from Father Christmas), whereas Nogrod seems quite calm - at any rate I shall be able to pass a good report of him onto Father Christmas and he may be lucky enough to be the recipient of a shiny new train set or perhaps a fort and some soldiers.

Farael, Kitanna and Holbytlass are making me wonder right now...

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Valier

Valier spins softly as if floating, towards the now assembled group of dancers. Her eyes closed, humming softly, she pauses, sighs and stops. "Excuse me? I don't think I quite understand......someone is dead? Why would anyone want to hurt some one at such a lovely place?" She now twirls her hair on one finger as she stands slightly on one leg. " I mean oh yeah now I remember....." Looks confused for a moment. " Poor, Poor Miss Durelin and Captain as well!! What ever shall we do?" Valier quickly looks side to side and gives a little shiver and takes a deep breath
"I know that killing the silent ones may sound like a good idea, but I think it folly. Whatever we say the wolves will certainly take into account. If we say kill the silent ones they will talk lots, if we say kill the loud ones they will back off. As a wolf the easiest way to get by is to talk quite frequently and try to sway votes whan they need to or if villagers want to kill the quiet ones they will just sit back and let them get killed. I say if anyone should go it is because of the way they react to others and the inconsistencies in their posting and opinions. I have had some experience being bad (though I've given it up for a more calmer life) I will try and post more things that I did and noticed with other wolves as soon as I can. I know today is random, but lets at least try and put some effort into it, seeing as we have no Seer or any other gifted to protect or help us. Every choice we make can hurt us if we don't think it through." Valier shakes her head suddenly and stares vacantly into the distance.
"Oh I love this song!! Would someone care to dance?"

Perhaps I misunderstand you but I seem to gather from this that everything we do will lead to our detriment. I'm fairly confident that Valier is one of our cobblers. Now the question is do we lynch her or not? She may, if left alive, lead us to the wolf with whom she is acquainted or we may have just effectively made her impotent to do anything...that is if everybody else trusts me on this one.

Rikae, oh she's innocent and likely I'll take my vote back but it was sure fun while it lasted.

Another one that has raised my eyebrow is Celuien. She seems overly neutral on everything she says but I'm more confident in Valier being the cobbler than in Celuien being the wolf.

I do also like the fact that Noggie has come under suspicion...it's about time I say.

Well in light of the disco ball over head

--Rikae

++Valier

Do we have any Toasters coming up?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ah, there you are.

I favour the succinct. That might explain later reasoning.

Rooting out werewolves and cobblers. There shall be grand theories, but they will not come into play on the first day. (Barring any major slip-up by the baddies.)

Werewolves could employ any tactic on day one. Stereotyping is tempting but requires careful thought before we actually cast our votes.

Cobblers are the interesting new factor at this ball. It is tempting to rush into a mode of cobbler-accusations but I feel this will get us nowhere. No cobbler will be foolish enough to outright defend his/her cherished werewolf without good reason on Day One. The cobbler has to trust in the corresponding wolf; has to trust that they will get past a few days together. Then, in the later part of the game, alliances are all the more relevant. I believe it is very likely that there will be no visible link between the wolves and the cobblers at this early stage.

It wouldn't surprise me if a wolf tried to turn the debate into such useless accusations of cobblery.

To leave a trail (always a good survival tactic )

—Rikae seems innocent to me. Fairly sure a wolf would not make the posts she has made.

—Farael, too, seems innocent to me. His bold approach is suited to stir the pot, and could even be designed to incur wrath (especially from the quiet ones )

—Cailín is innocent. So wonderful and darling and fair. In fact, I'd say it's probably physically, mathematically, and yea! logically impossible for her to be evil.

I currently suspect Kath, Valier, Naria and Lalwendë.

...

[Lalwendë]

You suspect me? Oh I shall have to call up Father Christmas and ask him if being suspicious is on his list of naughty behaviour...

Cobblers! .............. What if they try to deflect the attention and support someone who is not their werewolf?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

That's a good cobbler tactic. Hard to identify too. As in every game of Werewolf a bit of luck opens the door – a happenstance lynching of cobbler or wolf. It might actually be best if we get it a few days down the line where said unlucky villain has left a trail.

[Holbytlass]

The time has come
get up you bum
to find the guilty two
keep up the talk
keep clean your walk
or lynchee might be you

Much to go over, see who is siding with who and so forth...
I can say this though, I find switching votes too often a highly suspicious thing.

[Macalaure]

Cobblers! .............. What if they try to deflect the attention and support someone who is not their werewolf?

Very possible. Once we (or maybe even the wolves) get one of them, we have to be very careful: there might be traps in their posts for those who reread them for hints.
One other thing: how do you think the cobblers will try to signal their wolf their identity? I mean, it would be the most unfortunate thing for them to be killed by those whom they protect. Maybe a dead wolf will leave a trail to its cobbler if we look for hints like that? I'm just thinking aloud since not much else is happening at the moment.

[Celuien]

About the cobblers...

I don't think I'm going to spend much time looking for cobbler hints. Because the wolves know who they are, they can spot hints addressed to them, even if hidden in a list of similar looking hints addressed to half the village. Those of us who don't know anyone else's identity run a serious risk of falling headlong into a cobbler trap. It applies after the cobbler/wolf is revealed by death as well, after which I'll probably run straight into the circular reasoning of 'it's a hint but it could be a trap but it could be a hint' that I always end up in when wolf hunting.

[Macalaure]

Celuien,

Originally Posted by the Rules

In this game, there will be two Cobbers, and each Cobbler knows the identity of one of the two Werewolves (each Cobblers knows a different werewolf). Neither Cobbler knows who the other is, and the Werewolves are completely in the dark as to who the Cobblers are.

[Rikae]

Well, now. Hoom. Obvious cobblerishness makes me nervous. The cobblers in this game are the only ones (other than the wolves) who know anything, even though they'll be trying to hide it; they also can't directly kill us, so some people might imagine that we'd be inclined to keep the cobblers in play. This would make appearing cobblerish oddly safe; a bold way to hide in plain sight, espectially if it can be passed off as a joke.

Kitanna and Cailin are both making me nervous for the opposite reason; their posts seem overly safe and calculated. Valier's single post lacking any content whatsoever is still more unnerving, and as Mac and Cailin have pointed out, Noggie seems to be holding back somewhat. However, Mac and Cailin don't seem entirely innocent themselves; and lynching an innocent Nogrod would be very bad for the village indeed.
Morm is a rude boy, of course. Too rude to be a wolf (or so he'd like us to think).

[Celuien]

Ah, I see that I've been unclear.

Mac, I know that the werewolves aren't told who their cobblers are. That's not what I was suggesting. Let me clarify. What I meant is that the werewolves know their own identities, so that if a cobbler leaves a note to werewolf X, X should be able to pick up on that clue, even if the cobbler has hidden the message in a group of similar appearing statements about innocents because X will be looking for statements addressed to him/her. But if the villagers look for a message to X without knowing who X is, it would be quite a bit more difficult to find werewolf tracks versus cobbler confusion.

Is that better?

[Kath]

Yeah, so I forgot we have retractable votes. Apologies for the earlier assumption morm.

Now, we have two Wolves and two Cobblers. Which is more likely to make a mistake, or do something that makes them look wolvish? The whole point of the Cobbler is to help the wolves win by keeping suspicion away from them. In this game that job is made even easier because the Cobbler's know the identity of one of the wolves. It makes sense then to assume that, if a wolf looked to be in danger, the Cobbler that knows it's identity would draw suspicion away. That may be something we need to look for over the Days to come.

As to the fighting between people, notably Rikae and morm, that's a pretty normal Day 1 thing and is likely to settle down. However, there is nothing to say that we don't have a particularly bold Cobbler in Rikae who is getting her known wolf (morm) into the spotlight so that all suspicion falls on him on Day 1 when a lynch is less likely to follow than in later Days.

Glad that Mac has started to 'talk' now. His first post seemed pretty normal to me but it's always nice to get some more information!

I'm going to have to vote a bit early toDay by the way. Dancing does take it out of you and I need a rest (or a trip to the panto in fact!) so my vote will come in the next couple of hours. Right now it may go to Farael, because to me he hasn't been vocal enough. I'm used to him making a point and following it til the death, something we haven't seen from him yet. But that could be because it's Day 1. If it doesn't go to him it may go to Holby because she hasn't really said anything. It's been little poems and answers to others.

Actually having just read back over the first page Farael was quite vociferous in his lynch the silent ones plan so I'm more inclined to go for Holby right now. Hopefully she'll come back and talk a bit more before I'm forced to vote.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

While true that the cobblers want to die for the wolves, it would be folly for them to attract the mob to them so soon. The wise cobbler will not be making a big song and dance on the first day; but as the game progresses expect them to become more vocal.

[Nogrod]

So many said that we should concentrate on the wolves and what are we doing here? Talking of the cobblers...

Don't you think it would just be the thing a cobbler would want? The cobblers may be a key to this game, but only later on, Dance 3, 4 - as has been stated quite a few times (that's why I have not seen any reason to make a grand theory about them as we had better things to discuss earlier I was online).

So just finished reading... and my sis is coming to overnight here with her boyfriend a lot earlier than was talked of so I will have only limited time toDay.

But I'll do what I can.

I mean on the wolves.

[Folwren]

Is mormegil really all that rude on a normal bases? And he wasn't overly rude. He was random, but pointed in his randomness. I have seen a few people say he is....I guess I will take their word for it and leave him be for now.

Farael disturbs me immensely. I do not care if he voted for me, but I do care that he has been saying all this time that he thinks we should lynch a silent person and then he goes after someone who talks.

Nogrod may suspect me, but I have no problem with being suspected. I am a suspectable character, am I not? (Out of character, really, seriously, I am purposefully not acting like Foley.)

Rikae's reaction to Morm's random accusation did not alarm me. I only half read it, but even so, it reminds me of something Foley would do.

I have no had much chance to really read other people's posts. Mac is random, but does not strike me as dangerous. (And he also seems to be making more sense as his posts go on. The others, Kath, Cailin, Celuien, Eomer, Lal....I have not formed any opinion on them.

Holbytlass seems to be filled with sense, even if she is supoosed to jest. She seems stable, and likely to observe before throwing out accusations right and left.

Naria made a good point about Rikae, but I can not say if I agree with it. It is too soon in the game.

Valier has posted once and helped no one in doing so.

I can not stay longer just now...I should be able to get on again before voting time.

[Cailín]

I fear I may not be able to rise again when the orchestra strikes a new tune, so I shall have to cast my vote now. Just gathering my thoughts:

Mormegil - I am undecided on him for now. I am inclined to believe he is innocent, anyway, and do not suspect him enough to vote for him.

Kath - has behaved considerably Kath-like. Kath-like can either mean wolvish or innocent. She has stayed fairly neutral and made a few obvious statements. I quite disagree with her suspicions.

Farael - the whole silence-debate made him look a little suspicious, but I tend to agree with the idea that he appears to determined to be wolvish.

Rikae - the early vote from Morm seemed to have cooled her down a little. As she was part of the debate and voiced her opinions in a strong matter, I think she is an innocent.

Nogrod - Nogrod is always a little dangerous. I do not think it means much that he has not voiced a theory concerning the Cobblers. Quite obviously, he does not want to discuss the matter. This leads me to believe that either he is a Cobbler himself or an ordo with such a brilliant strategy that he does not wish to aid the Cobblers by voicing it. I am thinking that if he were a wolf, he would be trying to advise the Cobblers indirectly. Just a personal opinion that will serve for now.

Lalwende - well, she is new to the game. I know it may sound irrational and a little lame, but it would be brutal to vote for her today. I am suspending judgement. Anyway, I do not think she is a wolf.

Kitanna - sounds innocent.

Naria - I am always a little suspicious of Naria.

Macalaure - I do not know Mac (I think), so I am unsure what to expect. However, his case against Nogrod seems rather flimsy to me. But it is the first dance and all cases will be flimsy.

Celuien - has been careful, neutral and calm. I am currently unsure about her alliance. Wolves generally display such behaviour, but my ancestors (bla-di-bla, you know the deal) well, she is often careful, neutral and calm and always innocent.

Valier - has been extremely silent and not very helpful. But this is traditional and without a Seer, Valier's instincts (if she is innocent and if indeed she still has the same marvellous intuition) may be the best we have to go on.

Eomer - *sigh*

Holbytlass - generally not very contributive, but the few points she made were sound and refreshing.

Folwren - the only one who played a leading role in the debate earlier today who I am slightly suspicious of.

++Kath

I wish I had something more solid than thoughts and feelings to base my vote on, but alas. Her posts unsettled me a little and it is true: she makes a scarily good wolf. I am mostly basing my vote on the fact that she suspects the people who I suspect the least.

[Valier]

Valier stamps her foot and pouts " Why does noone want to dance? This is a dance is it not? Morm you rude boy I was waiting ever so patiently for you to suspect and vote for me today....You didn't disappoint. I don't hold it against you....yet. I am quite frassled today and am not quite sure who is a baddie, but I will be here till the deadline and will be doing some more careful reading"

[Celuien]

Morm --> Rikae, 1
Kitanna --> Morm (Rikae 1, Morm 1)
Farael --> Folwren (Rikae 1, Morm 1, Folwren 1)
Morm X Rikae --> Valier (Morm 1, Folwren 1, Valier 1)
Cailin --> Kath (Morm 1, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1)

I'm not quite sure that I understand Morm's reasoning for thinking that Valier is a cobbler. She raised the typical points against plans that rely on clustering wolves into a particular type of category (silent vs loud) in that a wolf would switch out of the tagged group once it was identified. It's a legitmate objection to make.

Twirls lasso

Well, at this point, morm's behavior is jumping out at me the most. So...

++ Mormegil

[Lalwendë]

Hmmm, time to vote soon?

I think I have two candidates in mind. One has been flying under the radar a little too much to escape my attention (see, trying to escape attention only draws it to you). The other seems to be playing cleverly.

But I'm not saying which is which. Only Father Christmas knows that.

I shall vote for:

++Kitanna

[Macalaure]

Sorry for misunderstanding you, Celuien.
But the problem remains that the wolves don't know who will give them a cobblerish hint. I'm sure it'll be easy to misinterpret and take something an innocent said unknowingly for a cobbler hint. I'm sure the wolves' nightly debates are interesting.

Anyway,

Originally Posted by morm

I do also like the fact that Noggie has come under suspicion...it's about time I say.

What keeps you from adding more points to the case?

I realized Nogrod didn't react to what I said in any way. Last time he did that, he turned out furry.

Following my rule of lynching who says least, Holbytlass, Celuien, Eomer and Naria rise on my radar. Valier didn't say a lot, too, but she never does on the first Dance. I would only vote for one of these if I have no better suspect (which I have at the moment), or when I would need to save somebody I feel innocent.

[Nogrod]

Sorry. Sis turned out even earlier I thought the last time I posted... I have read this all and have to think. For a moment. (It took a moment to tell her what I need to do with the computer while she's here... )

[Nogrod]

Okay, I decided to post this that I was doing before my sis came. I'll try to fill the holes and argue for any possible things afterwards...

Rikae I still find innocentish looking to her defence and activity. A wolf would not raise so much attention.

Lalwendë is reasonable. Can't compare her ways to anything as I presume no one of us can. So I'm not going for any blind actions.

Morm seems to be enjoying his rude boy character as a Dance1 feat. Nothing really exceptional there. If he's after all a good guy I would really like to have him on our side alive.

Celuien, Kitanna, Cailín, Holby: well-spoken, reasonable, calm... themselves at their best or pulling the wolf-thing very beautifully? We should look at them but at least myself will refrain from voting anyone of them after this Dance. When innocent, they are real assets.

Folwren, well un-Foleyish, but as you rightly corrected, that is no problem as you are countess Folwren now... *puzzled*

Macalaure's post still reads to me as a cobblerish one. I see your point on joke (I saw it then, surely), but why to make it and why to target the people you did? But I wish to be after a wolf toDay and see what Mac does alive... he's a good one when innocent and should not be lynched lightly.

Farael is more than reasonable! I would hold this the most promising thing without my lorebooks which depict him running amok after various people incessantly.

Valier the enigmatic again. She can pull the game too, and beautifully! Alongside Valier I'm most nervous about Kath and Naria. They have this tactics of being relatively quiet at least to begin with and contributing just enough to stay in so as no one wishes to vote for them... And they are all highly intelligent and tricksy if the situation requires.

[Nogrod]

As there seems to be no obvious blunders on the part of the wolves I might stick to this "who says the least" or "who plays the safest" or "who is the most dangerous if we have no clue".

That combination would produce: Kath, Valier and Naria. I do not believe we have both wolves here, but we might have one...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I find Nogrod's post #97 rather suspicious. He's seems sad, even adding a , because we are talking about cobblers despite agreeing that we shouldn't be talking about cobblers.

It's not right. My point anyway was that it would be not too useful to make cobbler-accusations today, because we have so little to go on; but I think it is wholly unreasonable for Nogrod to criticise us for discussing the role of the cobblers on a more conceptual level.

And that smilie, it's a tactic I've seen before. Subtly trying to manipulate the village and raise himself as a wise and benevolent father figure.

[Folwren]

The dance is drawing to an end. The final repetition of the song is being played. Soon, we shall be bowing to our partners and drawing away.

I have little to say. I suspect few people - Mac, Morm, and Farael. Farael because he said we should lynch a silent person the first day and then he went off and voted for me and said that later he may retract his vote and vote for a silent person. This he has not done. Understand, it is not because he voted for me that I am bothered, just that he voted for someone who did not talk very little. According to his earlier posts, I am his ideal person not to vote for this round.

What is more, he said that the reasons I gave to him in response to his first accusation made sense and yet he still doubted me because of a gut feeling.

So, for now, unless something changes in the lsat thirty minutes of time, my vote goes to

++Farael.

This is not out of spite. This is not because he voted for me. It is because I do not like what he has done over all in his dealing with me and my posts.

-- Countess Folwren

[mormegil]

Celuien, you disappoint me. Going for the easy vote.

[Nogrod]

Daddy speaking...

Sorry Eomer. I think we are after the same thing anyway. I do like to entertain theoretical matters and discuss on a general level, but when it distracts us from our real target, it's no good, but



I might add Folwren back to my list because of her vote. How many times a wolf has tried to hide herself in a reciprocal revenge-vote? Leaves no tracks as it can be interpreted as a pay-back vote...

And I'm not going to lose my sight from Farael either, but 'cause of quite opposite reasons. He just seems too consistent and reasonable - so something he fears for and needs to put up an innocent face (now that he's no ordo)?

[Macalaure]

Having retrackies, there's no need to keep a vote til the last minutes, so here it is, though it might change easily:

++Kath

I should've had her in my 'maybe'-list of my last post. I somehow forgot her. If this makes me suspicious to anybody, so be it.

Kath is always calm, but the few things she says are usually full of useful content. This time there was not so much of it. That's why. I also have a little more faith in Nogrod again. I don't like to see morm die today, and Kath already has a vote.

[Valier]

Valier quite loses track of time spinning and frolicking to the music by herself. " Oh we need to vote. Well I agree with Folwren on this one. I think Farael putting forth so much posting about killing off the silent ones, then not heeding his own advice to be well... wrong. So unless something spectacular happens in the next 20 minutes my vote goes for..
++Farael

[Macalaure]

to keep track with things:

Morm --> Rikae, 1
Kitanna --> Morm (Rikae 1, Morm 1)
Farael --> Folwren (Rikae 1, Morm 1, Folwren 1)
Morm X Rikae --> Valier (Morm 1, Folwren 1, Valier 1)
Cailin --> Kath (Morm 1, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1)
Celuien --> Morm (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1)
Lal --> Kitanna (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1, Kitanna 1)
Folwren --> Farael (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1, Kitanna 1, Farael 1)
Mac --> Kath (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 1, Farael 1)
Valier --> Farael (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 1, Farael 2)

[Rikae]

I suppose I must vote now. I always hate Day 1 voting. *sigh*

Valier seems slippery, but increasingly, so much so that she begins to look less wolfish to me. I won't vote for Morm or Mac, though I'm watching them; I'll wait and see what develops. Cailin and Kitanna, as I said earlier, seem a bit calculated, and of the two, ++Kitanna seems more so.

[Holbytlass]

Mormegil:I don't feel at this time there is a real thing between Rikae and Mormegil, as in they are trying to distance themselves by fighting. Morm's was a real in-character banter and understandably Rikae would react having been singled out. Morm doesn't (that I recall) state why he's glad that Nogrod is under suspicion nor says if he finds Nogrod suspicios or not. I think Morm is grasping at straws when saying he is confident that Valier is a cobbler, either trying to find something substantial to go on for a first dance or trying to get us to go along with him-he did want us to trust him. As stated, not a huge fan of retracting votes even when allowed.

Cailinoesn't seem to want to talk about topics at hand, but after initial funfinger pointing has great points about others in her observations that deserve to be looked at. always her helpful self

Kath:Adds to the differing points that need to be looked at when talking of a strategy-in this case dealing with hiding wolves. Does bring up good point (although right now I disagree-but she's a thinker) of the possible Morm/Rikae bold bluff

Farael:Somewhat contraversial with going after quiet group. I agree and get what he's trying to say. The only thing weird is that he usually goes after someone vehemently even on first day

Rikae:seems to be her usual self, only thing I find funny (as in an interesting way) but not totally suspicious is her being mostly against the quiet group lynching but finds those who have said the least makes her nervous. Again the thing with Morm-both seem natural.

Nogrod:I don't find him particularly suspicious. good points about those who leave little trail .and his thoughts on others

Lalwende:nothing to go on here. her thoughts on others-has a good point of what cobblers might do

Kitanna:adds her opinions to main issue and some dancers, not much to discern

Naria:points out that Rikae could be pulling bold bluff move, only thing that could possibly be seen as suspicious is her extremely defensive manner

Macaulare:I don't see why people think Macs a cobbler

Celuien:her opinions of others don't seem to be off the wall other then being puzzled about Morm's checking the PM's for seership

Valier: not much to go on

Eomer:some thoughts on what a cobbler might do (what he might do?) never says why he's suspicious of Kath, Valier, Naria and Lalwendë

Folwren:I don't find her seeing Fareal's point of dealing with hiding wolves as suspicious

Suspicious
Mormegil for the confident Valier is a cobbler theory
Eomer he's smart enought to pull off a bluff of stating what he is going to do as a cobbler
Naria because of her defensive manner

[Celuien]

Morm --> Rikae, 1
Kitanna --> Morm (Rikae 1, Morm 1)
Farael --> Folwren (Rikae 1, Morm 1, Folwren 1)
Morm X Rikae --> Valier (Morm 1, Folwren 1, Valier 1)
Cailin --> Kath (Morm 1, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1)
Celuien --> Morm (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1)
Lal --> Kitanna (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1, Kitanna 1)
Folwren --> Farael (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1, Kitanna 1, Farael 1)
Mac --> Kath (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 1, Farael 1)
Valier --> Farael (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 1, Farael 2)
Rikar --> Kitanna (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 2, Farael 2)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Predictable scaremongering, Holby; though, of course, I am flattered.

Agreed Nogrod, let us just leave it for now...

I could vote for any one of you (except Cailín who, as has been established through logic and truth, is innocent). Back soon.

[Holbytlass]

++Mormegil

[Nogrod]

I wouldn't lynch morm with these allegiations...

So it will be Kath or Farael to me then as I tend to trust Kitanna right now.

[Folwren]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I might add Folwren back to my list because of her vote. How many times a wolf has tried to hide herself in a reciprocal revenge-vote? Leaves no tracks as it can be interpreted as a pay-back vote...

Sir, I have said before that my vote was not done out of revenge. Do you think I would stoop so low as to vote for another dancer's death merely to satisfy my own displeasure? How childish do you think I am? I do not fear Farael. I do not fear his vote. I do suspect him for the murder of our host and hostess, though. Out of all who have spoken enough to draw anything from, I suspect him the most. This may change. This assumption, this suspicion, may be wrong. But I will not be held accountable if it is. There is too little to go by this first day to make a very educated and cool headed decision, but am I am doing my best. And it has nothing to do with revenge.