Tol-In-Gauroth XXIV: Battle of the Band[Wagon]

[Durelin]

Well, I can't say I saw that one coming, nor do I expect the wolves did.

*mutters* Lucky guess, Morrissey...

Sadly, I feel like we can pretty much rule out THE KaMoz and Celuien...but not completely.

I guess we can do the same with Folwren, unless Volo and Folwren simply turned on each other... Or something...

Oh, yeah, btw, sorry for not being around. Day One has always been my sit back and observe day.

Anyway...

Mac seems the least right to me right now. His late vote for Volo would be excellent cover, but he doesn't even produce any reason at all!

And then there's this:

You could've waited that few more minutes, Nogrod...

Hmm. A little...protective...? (Not the best word.) But perhaps too obvious.

I doubt Nogrod is a wolf.

Eonwe feels innocent to me. He seems too *carefree* in his playing style to be a wolf. Still, that could just be his 'strategy' no matter what he is.

Glirdan hasn't been much. Like me. Not quite right seeming, but not quite wrong seeming either. Yet.

Boro...same old Boro. Into it, analysing and creating lists to his heart's content.

Diamond has been Diamondish, and I think her vote for Rune actually points more towards innocence than anything else. Rather than actually trying to bring someone ahead of someone else, which she was surely in the position to do, she steps back, not wanting guilt on her hands. I can definitely relate to that.

Rune hasn't been much yet. Though he's been akin to a certain sort of Rune I knew...a hairy and fanged one. Still, he seems the type to come across rather the same no matter what his true identity.

Lommy...little from her, and the fact that she pointed out Folwren really doesn't tell us much.

Now here's a funny thought:

Volo, Mac, and Folwren are our three wolves.

Edit: Cross-posted with Rune and Glirdan.

[Boromir88]

Dead wolf and dead Menel.

Hmmm, what to make of this. It's about time we start telling these wolves Don't Come around here No More.

Well, I'm not inclined to believe Folwren's innocent. My guess is they want to set up Folwren for an easy kill today as he had attracted quite a bit of suspicion yesterday. But, based upon the craziness that happened at the end of the day yesterday, I get the feeling Folwren's innocent.

That's all for now, I think we should look through Volo's posts, that is the best thing for us to use as information for today. I used to take voting records to be strong evidence for someone's innocence, but since someone (:cough: Father Nogrod :cough: ). I have a lesser amount of trust in using votes to form a judgement of who's innocent and who's not.

Edit: x-posted with Durelin and Glirdan

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Let me first of all clear up a miss understanding made by Volo. I did not say that I agreed with Di I said that was what Mac did and nothing more and that was my reason for voting Mac. . . I think I would have done the same if I had been able to stay around. I would not have voted Volo, I am sure.

I was unsure about menel, so from that perspective this was a good kill for me.

Nogrod for me is hard to get a read on, wich is ironic as he writes a whole novel in each post.

I find Glirdans vote suspiciouse, because it was such an easy one. I hope you understand. It was kind of voting for Nilp on day 1.

I have a chief suspect, but I need to observe the person for a bit to figure out if my theory holds water. . .

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I think voting Flowren would be a mistake, I have often shared the same fear as her about posting the very first posy. Only to often have I seen people get lynched because people read to much into such a comment. (Including my own great grandfather)

I don't find Di to seem innocent, I doubt a wolf would dare to throw a vote away like that.

1. It is likely to atracted attention
2. they could have saved their fellow wolf and maybe even make it look inoccent.

I also think Celuin a inoccent, she has done nothing particular wolfish in my view and she did vote for Volo as number 2, with the chance to start a bandwagon. . . I normaly don't base my suspicions on votes, but I always take them into considerations.

I will, check in again in 30 min and then I have to leave for tonight (RL), I should be online in the hours before the deadline, but not in the last hour.

[Glirdan]

Okay, going over Folwern's posts I found things that struck me as....well, odd.

A very, very shocking beginning. Being beheaded is not a very good thing. I'm rather shocked that. . .that would have happened. . .so soon. You'd think the villains would wait a few deaths later to get gruesome.

So what, you expected a murder? Is it because you're one of them planning it and your guilty conscious is trying to get out?

And don't try to derive any strange and twisted meaning out of this first post be cause there isn't any.

And why would you go and say that? Is it because there was something strange and twisted in the post?? Hmmmm....

I'm going to quote Boromir not because I'm accusing him or anything, but to make things more conveniently looked up.

This is honestly the wierdest thing you have said yet. Why would you say that? It's fine to quote people. Look at me! I'm doing it right now!! This scentence really strikes me as suspicious. It's like you're hiding something again and your concious(sp? [Ihonestly think I'm spelling that wrong]) is fighting to break out.

Look, Lommy - I said not to try to take any twisted meaning out of my words. Didn't I say that? It was an awkward business making the first post. I couldn't tell what people would think. It was an ice breaking post and I had absolutely nothing to say.

And again, why would you say "I said not to try to take any twisted meaning out of my words." If anything, that makes you look more suspicous.

Over-defensive? Well, yes, maybe so. I've been accused of that many, many times before. But see here, being an innocent, I have no guilty conscience, therefore I don't feel guilty about arguing my way out of a tight spot (or an imaginary tight spot) because I don't have to lie about it. Also, being an innocent, I'm scared to death that someone, as you have done, will point their finger at me, take their attention off the real wolves, and kill a friend. That's why I'm attomatically defensive.

I bolded the part I really want to talk about here. The problem with that is that we don't know who the Wolves are. We don't know if we can trust you. How do we know that you're not a Wolf?

Nogrod, please, please, just this round, give me the benefit of the doubt. I am not guilty. We're drawing so near to the end that one more vote for me may be the end!

This sounds like a plea of a Wolf trying to stay alive and attack more innocents. I really don't like it. If you're as innocent as you say you are Folwren, why would you have cared about being lynched? I personally would feel like a sacrifice, a way to get closer to finding the Wolves. This really sounds like a Wolf plea to me.

Which brings me all the way back to her throwaway vote.

Hmmm, I'll be around if you need me.

[Folwren]

I am sorry that it was Menel who died. He voted for me yesterday, but I'm willing to forgive him of that. I liked him and he made sense.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

At the time of her vote, Volo's death was already sealed. The only person who had to vote was her. It was a throwaway vote. Too safe in my opinion. She had anybody to vote for.

It's true that Volo turned out to be a Wolf. He voted Folwren in an attempt to save himself. How do we know that Folwren didn't vote him to make her look more innocent? She is deffinetly at the top of my suspect list.

*deep deep deep sigh* I survived yesterday, gasping, with my head barely above water (I thought) and thought I'd cleared the hurdle, only to find I'm accused afresh in the morning.

Please allow me to explain more thoroughly what I meant when I said Pop sent a fax RIGHT (I meant 'RIGHT at', too) at closing time. . .

At fifteen minutes before voting time, I went for the computer to connect and stay posted until the end. I connected and had not yet gotten on the 'Downs when Pop hollers up from his office in the back 'I need to send a fax!!' Of course, I disconnected, allowing him the phone line. It was a 20 page fax!! And it took 20 minutes to send. Right at the exact time of voting, the fax gets through and the line is free (all the while, I'm really worried. I couldn't sit still, I thought my life was on the line, I had no idea how those last votes were going to go). So, come time, I finally manage to connect, I rush as fast as I can to the thread, without waiting for it to load (anyone who has dial up knows how long things can take to load), type down my vote, and post it. LESS THAN A MINUTE LATER Sleepy posts end of day.

Only after I voted did I run back and look at what transpired during those horrible minutes that Pop's fax was sending. I saw it hadn't been necessary that I vote, but it was just as well.

And there, my dear fellow, is my defense.

Now, I have no time left to explain anything. We were gone all morning picking up another horse and now there's lots of work to be done here at home. I will check in and out this afternoon and this evening I sincerely hope to have some time to write some thoughts.

Down with the wolves!

-- Folwren

[Folwren]

Cross posted with Glirdan. I do not have time to completely read your post (I glanced through your arguments) and I have even less time to go through thorough arguments to deflect what you've said.

It's is an utter waste of time for you to be getting on me so much. If you want to know why I said the Boromir thing, go back and re-read my posts again and see what I've already said on the subject. You sited my explanation for the first quote you keep pulling up. Also, about my being an innocent and being scared to death - Why can't a person be honset here?!?! Seriously! I am the most talkative, most open, most wordy, most honest person here and I'm getting slammed for it! I am not trying to hide anything! Would a wolf, who's being hounded like this, talk so much? Would they? Stop it and think! THINK!

K. Please excuse me. I'm a little riled up. Tired and overwrought. I hope I haven't made things worse for myself but I have a horrible, sick feeling in my stomach that I just dug the hole a little bit deeper.

-- Folwren

[Celuien]

Glirdy posted my customary vote recap. But that won't stop me from copying over the portion I find most interesting.

6) Celuien - Volo (Ka 1, Durelin 1, Volo 2, Folwren 1, Mac 1)
7) Boro - Mac (Ka 1, Durelin 1, Volo 2, Folwren 1, Mac 2)
8) Eonwe - Nogrod (Ka 1, Durelin 1, Volo 2, Folwren 1, Mac 2, Nogrod 1)
9) Menel - Folwren (Ka 1, Durelin 1, Volo 2, Folwren 2, Mac 2, Nogrod 1)
10) Di - Rune (Ka 1, Durelin 1, Volo 2, Folwren 2, Mac 2, Nogrod 1, Rune 1)
11) Nogrod - Volo (Ka 1, Durelin 1, Volo 3, Folwren 2, Mac 2, Nogrod 1, Rune 1)
12) Mac - Volo (Ka 1, Durelin 1, Volo 4, Folwren 2, Mac 2, Nogrod 1, Rune 1)
13) Volo - Folwren (Ka 1, Durelin 1, Volo 4, Folwren 3, Mac 2, Nogrod 1, Rune 1)
14) Folwren - Volo (Ka 1, Durelin 1, Volo 5, Folwren 3, Mac 2, Nogrod 1, Rune 1)

Tie making and breaking:
Volo was the first to garner a second vote. A three-way tie (at 2 votes a piece) existed between Volo, Mac and Folwren after Menel's vote at number 9. Boromir was the other tie creator with a vote for Mac at number 7.

At that point, the field was wide open, and anyone could have been pushed into the lead. Nogrod and Mac then both voted for Volo, with Mac essentially making the deciding vote. For that reason, I'm inclined to think Mac is innocent. Had he voted for Folwren, Volo would have had a chance at escaping the vote. The same goes for Nogrod, who seemed more likely to vote for either Rune or me than for Volo until the last minute, when he tipped the balance against our deceased wolf.

Folwren doesn't necessarily feel guilty to me. In the flurry of votes, she might have thought that a vote for Volo was needed to save herself. And the frantic wish to stay alive doesn't have to mean that she was wolvishly trying to survive. Day 1 is a rotten time to go, even if you're ordinary. I'll watch her, but I'm not really getting a bad vibe from her.

And, actually, with Menel's death, I'm wondering about Boromir. I felt fairly certain of his innocence yesterday, but with his main opponent from yesterDay's debate gone, my attention had been attracted.

[Folwren]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

This sounds like a plea of a Wolf trying to stay alive and attack more innocents. I really don't like it. If you're as innocent as you say you are Folwren, why would you have cared about being lynched? I personally would feel like a sacrifice, a way to get closer to finding the Wolves. This really sounds like a Wolf plea to me.

I happen to like being alive, thank you very much. What is more, I think that someone who talks as much as I do and thinks a little bit about what I write will be more of an asset to the village than something who doesn't talk much and doesn't talk much sense when he does talk, as Volo appeared to do when he lived. As it turned out, he was a wolf.

Yes, yes, use that 'be more of an asset to the village' to tie me down better, if you so wish!

-- Folwren

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I will, be leaving now, so here is my parting shot.

Stop being after Folwren like this, am I really the only one who thinks she is too defencive to be a wolf. I know the opposite could be argued, but it simply attracts to much attention for a wolf to do this. At least under these sercumstances.

I don't know if I think that Glirdy is just being him self and on the wrong track or if he is a wolf praying on the obviouse and silly mistakes he can find.

[Durelin]

Okay, Folwren's almost definitely innocent. No wolf would dare make such a scene...

So, no, you're not the only one who thinks so, Rune.

Still, I don't want to say anything's absolute, of course... But let's focus on something new, if only for a change.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Am I really the only one who thinks she is too defencive to be a wolf.

No, you're not. After reading the defenses I crossed with, I'm thinking that she's probably innocent. What she said feels genuine.

But really, though I find myself disagreeing, I can't (and won't) fault Glirdy for going after her. It seems to me that he found a suspect and wanted answers. Silly mistakes are sometimes the only thing the village has to go on. *shrugs*

[THE Ka]

Lucky guess, Morrissey...

Moz sings, "... We hate it when our friends become successful"

Anyways...

That coffin is just... ugh, no one should go out in that style, especially in nice shoes. Obviously whoever did this has no sense of style, for one, but onto the other facts.

Originally Posted by Rune

2. they could have saved their fellow wolf and maybe even make it look inoccent.

From personal past experience as playing a werewolf in my last game, there is usually one werewolf who has to take a dive for the sake of the others... Thus the 'fenris wolves'. It is also a tactic that is somewhat good at keeping the rest of the players still with without much a clue as to any connections, that is, if their fellow wolves don't blow the whole thing by being too defensive, or otherwise too friendly.

Speaking of that, it would be nice to check up on how everyone reacted to Volo being voted for.

Originally Posted by Folwren

Also, being an innocent, I'm scared to death that someone, as you have done, will point their finger at me, take their attention off the real wolves, and kill a friend. That's why I'm attomatically defensive.

Being defensive is a tricky ordeal. Either, it is a wolf who's a bit shaky at how things are going and trying to pull heart strings, or an innocent who is in a bit of a corner and doing the same. Hmmm, I would keep an eye on this.

Originally Posted by Folwren

To save my own skin.

I understand RL issues. Though, as an innocent, I wouldn't say that if I was caught in a corner. It doesn't seem very logical for a wolf to say that either, really. Sounds like a flustered reply, but a very suspicious one at that.


I'm beginning to see that maybe our wolves are not working together so well, but that depends on whether all of this flustering is not a cover up for it. Then again, wolves have the advantage at knowing whom they are in good arms with against others and how (hopefully) to act, while innocents are for themselves unless proven otherwise, which is rare. Either our wolves were scrambling yesterday, and had somewhat of a disarray, or all of this flustering is a neat diversion for confusion.

Whatever comes, I think I will have to go back and take more of a look at all of this when I can. Folwren's actions do not seem the best making for a wolf, or innocent, but mostly that of a wolf. Others in question, do not seem that easy to get by.

[Glirdan]

Okay, I will accept Folwren's reasoning for her late vote. But that still doesn't completely ease me. Yes, it's true that this type of scene is a little too dramatic and exposing for a Wolf. But how do we know that that's what she wants us too think. I don't know. I look back in my lorebooks and it seems that my family and hers had crossed paths before. But from what my records can tell, her ancestors never acted in such a way and it disturbs me.

I'm still keeping my eye on her. There's just something about it that seems too...well, odd.

[Boromir88]

Here's my thoughts on Menel's death.

1. He's a strong opponent against the wolves.

2. He was probably one of the only people yesterday that didn't attract any sort of suspicion what so ever. Everyone felt good about him, so the wolves wanted to get him out of the picture.

3. To set up for an easy lynch target today.

Call me a softy, but I've brought into Folwren's pleads. In the chaos and upped pace of the last minutes yesterday, it's understandable that Folwren was voting to save her life (eventhough if it turned out to be unnecessary).

Which leads me to Glirdan who has continued an attack on Folwren today. Since I find Folwren innocent, it's either that Glirdan is an innocent that fell into the wolves plan. Or he actually is a wolf pushing for Folwren's lynching. From what I know of Glirdan (which has been a very short history of records) he is the agressive attack type, so it wouldn't surprise me if he's a wolf in this situation.

Then there's Thinlomien, who got the ball rolling yesterday against Folwren. I had agreed with Thinlo's points, as because as far as Day 1's go it was one of the more sensible looking arguments. But, as the Day closed yesterday I grew wary of a vote against Folwren (for rather obvious reasons that I've made more clear today).

Though yesterday Thinlo's points made sense, today with more information that we now have, it's easy to take someone's words and fit your own meaning. I'm not saying you twist words around, but you twist people's intentions and feelings around to fit your own opinion. I mean a simple change as far as where you put a period can change the whole context and meaning of the sentence, or a section of writing. And since we can't read the tone of words in most cases, it's easy to form our own opinions that aren't necessarily correct.

I would like to hear from Thinlo as I have a feeling that she slyly guided supsicion towards Folwren and now has let other people lead the attacks against her.

Also, I'm considering this....Those who voted for Folwren:

1. Thinlolmien
2. Menel (dead- innocent)
3. Volo (dead-wolf)

Is it possible that Thinlo is also a wolf here? She got the ball rolling with some convincing looking arguments, as far as Day 1 goes, and a good wolf can do that. Menel bought into it. Volo was obviously trying to save himself, so perhaps he voted a long with a wolf partner who had started the suspicion against Folwren.

I have a feeling that either Glirdan (who is the one continuing the attack today) or Thinlomien, (who started the attack) is a wolf. As I find it pretty obvious that Folwren's innocent.

Edit: X-posted with several people.

[Macalaure]

Sorry for being so short today. We should be looking at the things Volo said and did yesterday. I hope I will later find the time to.

For now:

Originally Posted by Durelin

Mac seems the least right to me right now. His late vote for Volo would be excellent cover, but he doesn't even produce any reason at all!

And then there's this:

Quote:
You could've waited that few more minutes, Nogrod...


Hmm. A little...protective...? (Not the best word.) But perhaps too obvious.

First, I was the one who suggested that the remaining people voted Volo. Just because I happen to be the second of the actual voters doesn't make it a cover.

Second, yes, my reasons (given a few posts before what you quote) are weak, very weak in fact. The final reason was not so much against Volo, but more for the others.

Third, I don't know what you mean by 'protective'. As I said, I was all but convinced of Volo's guilt and so I hoped that his last post would have anything in it that would convince me either way. Then Nogrod decided not to wait (said he didn't see Volo's 'I'm going to post soon'), and I thought that was a pity...

I expect that, by the time I come back much later, somebody has suspected me for being too defensive.

[Eonwe]

Glirdan, I've gotta say, I think more highly of your werewolf skills than you're post (#85) would give you credit for. If you wanna go over some posting, make it a post were Folwren made some arguments, not just a ice-breaker post. You might as well pick up on my wamybar post and say "Well, the only one he didn't offer to check was himself! Ha, we've found our wolf, baby!"

I'm inclined to suspect Glirdan right now, but his behavior is so far out on a limb in my opinion, that I'm not sure if I should.

I'll read somemore and post some more later.

[Durelin]

All but convinced of his guilt, Mac? I don't know, perhaps you use such a prase more lightly than I do...

This is all you had to say about Volo:

Originally Posted by Mac

The only one about which I am suspicious to a ridiculously small degree is Volo, because his summary doesn't sit well with me.

Originally Posted by Mac

This leaves me again with Volo, whom I could vote for though with a bad conscience and a bad feeling.

Mostly your posts are a lot of "I don't want to vote for people," which is perfectly understandable (I feel that way all the time!)...but what's not is you coming back the next day, when you must defend yourself, and saying 'I was all but convinced of Volo's guilt.'

I'm not condemning you yet, don't worry. (And I haven't forgotten about everyone else yet, either.) But I find that disturbing.

[Nogrod]

Okay, just a few points at first (I have a really bad Day today as I must be away less than 12 hours from now and need to have my night's sleep during the time).

I'm ready to take Folwren as an innocent for now. I came to that conclusion over the last hour of yesterDay as I went through her posting and am not ready to change it, at least with what Glirdy has brought against her.

Although I must say that I agree that my - admittedly thin - lorebook of Folwren's family that she isn't quite acting like her family-members have acted before.



But then there is something a bit bit strange with Macalaure. I'm sorry to say that as our families have had a history of being even-minded in many games before.

Why Mac you say:

First, I was the one who suggested that the remaining people voted Volo. Just because I happen to be the second of the actual voters doesn't make it a cover.

When it most obviously is not true? Let's look at the posts of the end of the Day1.

Originally Posted by Nogrod #60

Volo I'm a bit aware of, as his "defence" of himself seemed like trying to be useful without actually doing anything (making the scanty summary of the posts so far) and that has been considered quite wolvish, with a reason I daresay. But then again, he acted pretty "shady and suspicious" as Boro named it, already in his first game before this.

Originally Posted by Mac #61

The only one about which I am suspicious to a ridiculously small degree is Volo, because his summary doesn't sit well with me.

Originally Posted by Nogrod #66

Maybe we should reconsider the "middle-men" as I suggested earlier, namely Rune and Celuien (I'm out with voting for Folwren now). They have trailed the discussion of Menel and Boro nicely. A good shady place for a wolf to pass behind the notice of everyone else?

Or then Volo? 15 minutes...

Originally Posted by Nogrod #67

Volo's last post about himself:
Quote:
#38 Volo says what people have said and goes off somewhere (to koiralenkki).

THat last one there, the "koiralenkki" means a walk with the dog (or jogging with the dog). Curious it would take him more than two and half hours as not to make it to the end?

I might vote Volo on this... Avoiding the discussion?

Originally Posted by Mac #69

Out of the ones who have two votes, I don't like to vote for me and I don't like to vote for Folwren. This leaves me again with Volo, whom I could vote for though with a bad conscience and a bad feeling.

Originally Posted by Nogrod #70

Okay, I'll do it.

If you are an innocent extreme-sports man, I apologise, but 2½ hours with the dog outside when the heat is on in the WW-game just doesn't sound right. It sounds like avoiding the chance of making mistakes and that's something a wolf might wish to do...

++ Volo

Originally Posted by Mac #71

You could've waited that few more minutes, Nogrod...

Originally Posted by Mac #73

OK, I'm sorry. The deadline's here and I will vote now.

++Volo

If you really are a wolf then this is going to be pure luck...

edit: ... but also fun!
editedit: I mean last minute tumult, not voting Volo.

From this it is hard to figure out a coinstellation where Macalaure was the leading lyncher of Volo... So why do you want to say that you were? A wolf would have a reason for that, but why you. I know you are a capable and intelligent player, so what is the point? I must say that your defence of yourself has lighted lots of alarm-bells in my mind.

EDIT: X-ed with Durelin and agree with her a lot...

[Boromir88]

Well I went through Volo's posts, so perhaps this may help a little bit.

Volo's first two posts, there really isn't much to go from. He's in character, and he agrees with Menel and myself. The Ka picks up on this and is the main proponent in Volo's lynching. Normally, this would put Ka in a very innocent looking position, however, due to recent circumstances my forefathers have been in, it could be a staged plan done by the wolves. Usually I don't like considering these whacky, sacrificial circumstances, but again the most recent experience makes me wary.

Now, I must ask myself is The Ka a person who would attempt to do this? For at least today, I'm willing to look at more suspicious looking things, than consider this possibility. But, I am more careful about so blindly trusting someone because of being influential in a wolf's demise. If anyone wonders why, just ask :cough: Nogrod :cough:.

So, taking a look at Volo's last posts, we can see what he said about each of the villagers:

Menelteramacil: I find him an innocent, he has told his mind, even if the first post was rather strange to me, but maybe I understood it wrong. He hasn't made any great inventions (or I'm too blind to see them) but I agree with him about Celuien and Folwren. I feel safe about him.

Menel is as we know, now innocent. This makes sense for a wolf as well. I think especially Volo, where I believe this is his first run as a wolf. He would want to try to attach himself to the more talkative-bunch and hopefully we get on his good side.

Glirdan: Not much reason in his vote, but I too find Durelin's actions strange. I won't be voting him now.

I don't know how much I can make here. He finds Glirdan and Durin's actions strange. It's possible that either one is a wolf and he he neither wanted attract a lot of suspicion towards one of them, nor did he want to defend one of them. So, it's kind of that 'I'll watch these two,' they're acting strange, but I won't vote for them.

Macalaure: I don't see the point you are making against him. Ok, he did agree really openly, but still... I find him rather innocent.

Mac was another one who gathered some suspicion yesterday (mostly by me it seems). Mac your defense at the end yesterday eased some of my doubts, but I'm still cautious. Something about you didn't seem right, maybe it was because you weren't exactly in that situation of Day 1 before, maybe not. Also, this looks like Volo is trying to deflect suspicion away from you. But as far as what took place at the end yesterday, you eased a little of my doubt.

Diamond18: I don't see much great sence in her talk, (just like I don't in my own) but she hasn't been overlyanything. Maybe she just has a slow start (like I want to think of myself).

This is another one hard to figure out. Probably because it's dealing with Diamond, of all the ancestors and history I have had with people, Diamond is probably just about as confusing to me as Gil-galad is. I've never been able to pin down such an eccentric character like Di, which makes her dangerous.

THE Ka: Here is one more person that hasn't contributed much. I find her vote rather strange (well sure, she's voting for me...), yes I was in a mood when I wanted to say something not saying anything bright. I don't find her too wolfish either.

It is true that The Ka did not participate much yesterday. But I would disagree with what Volo said here. Though she didn't talk a lot, she was one of the most helpful people yesterday in spotting Volo. So again, for today at least, Ka seems innocent.

Thinlomien: She has been active and found a weakness in Folwren that now I see quite clearly. I think of her as innocent.

Perhaps this is a wolf defense of another wolf? Trying to push for the lynching of Folwren? Though, it seemed a lot of people yesterday (myself included) found Thinlo's points reasonable. I know Thinlo won't be around a lot today, so I'm going to withhold my final judgement on her until I hear what she has to say.

Celuien: Now here is a strange one. She hasn't said anything good today, or then I'm too blind to see. She might be a wolf but today we can't vote her out really can we?

Suspects Celuien, she did attract a little suspicion yesterday. I'm not sure what to think of her today so far, she's going a long with the general feeling that Folwren is innocent. She was also one of Menel's suspects yesterday, but Menel was more convinced by Folwren's guilt. Perhaps she weas trying to get rid of Menel before he started getting suspicion against her?

Eonwe: I'm finding her random accusations strange. She has said many things, but I see reason in only few of then. Again, I think I might have voted her if there had been more chance of lynching her.

Volo said he would have voted for Eonwe had if more people would have thought the same. Volo was most concerned with saving his skin yesterday, so he couldn't vote for Eonwe. I'll get more to this later.

Nogrod: I think he is innocent or he really changed his strategy from the last game.

Thinks Nogrod's innocent. I was thinking the same, but so far Nogrod has been unusually quiet today. Maybe it's for RL reasons, but I would have expected Nogrod to have said something by now.

Durelin: Strange vote, nothing more really. I can't see as innocent or wolf now.

Unsure about Durelin, this is similar to what Volo said about Glirdan.

Folwren: Now here is the strange one, hasn't really said much except for own defence. I'll vote her...

Volo most likely went with Folwren because she was one of the more suspicious ones yesterday and was trying to save his own skin.

Rune: RL problems, hasn't said much, but doesn't seem wolfish...

Say RL has contributed to Rune's minor activity yesterday (which I agree). And puts Rune off of innocent.

Now I think the thing to figure out is would Volo be the type to put his partners as innocent, unsure about, or suspicious groups. With this being Volo's first wolf experience, he just doesn't seem like somebody who would like to bluff or trick, seems more conservative and consistant. So, I would think most likely he would put his partners as innocent, or unsure (more likely put them at unsure), and sort of seperate one partner from the other, like a usual wolf.

So,

Who Volo named as innocent:

Menel
Mac
The Ka
Thinlo
Nogrod
Rune

Who Volo was unsure about:

Glirdan
Diamond
Durelin

Who Volo thought was suspicious:

Folwren
Eonwe
Celuien

Taking all this mumbo into account. It's most likely there's at least one wolf amongst Volo's wide innocent list. The one I think seems to be the most wolfish in that group is Thinlo, for reasons stated earlier today. Possibly Mac, I want to see more of the Mac that I'm used to (which is the Mac that I saw at the end of the day yesterday).

I also am inclined to believe there is a wolf in that 'unsure category.' The most probable, to me, seems to be Glirdan, again for reasons stated earlier. He's backed down a little bit from Folwren, but still finds her 'uneasy.' That's a safe move for a wolf who's attack has seemed to fail and doesn't want to do a complete flip-flop.

There might be a wolf in that 'suspicious' category, I'm not going to remove that possibility. Of those, most suspicious looking perhaps is Celuien. As I said Menel suspected her yesterday, so wanted to get rid of him quickly. But for today, I don't know how Volo would act like as a wolf. He doesn't seem like the type that would be suspicious of a partner. So, that means most likely those three will not get my vote today, though of those three I'm most suspicious of Celuien.

Edit: X-posted with everyone up to Mac's last post.

[Folwren]

Thank you, all of you who put in a good word for me.

I am inclined to think Mac is not a wolf. He didn't vote for me when he could have. At that time, it appeared that I had more doubtful stuff piling up against me than Volo did. . .I mean with what Lommy said. But Mac went with his gut feeling, it seemed. If he had been a wolf, he could have voted for me and assumed that Volo would have voted for me, too. . .and it may have turned into a double lynching if I hadn't gotten there in time. He wasn't defending Volo when he said 'You might have waited a few more minutes', he was just dreading Volo turning out to be an innocent.

I. . .I don't know about Glirdan. I was coming near disliking him when he attacked me as he did, so I'm not quite trusting myself to commenting on him yet.

Someone's mentioned Durelin being suspectable? She's spoken up for me, saying a wolf wouldn't cause such a scene. . .perhaps she's not a wolf? If she were, she'd probably harp on my defending myself so much and being so desperate to live would mean I was a wolf. Inclined to not think her a wolf. Also, she made a very random, very attention drawing first post and vote yesterday.

Boromir mentioned the three people who voted for me:

Lommy, Menel, and Volo. Menel was an innocent, he was killed. Volo was a wolf, he was lynched. Lommy. . .we have no idea what she is.

Now, I have to say, last night I was thinking, if Lommy were killed, having cast doubt on me, I would most certainly be suspected. I almost expected her to be killed, providing she's not a wolf. She wasn't killed, and Menel was - who also voted for me. Are they trying to frame me? Can Lommy and Glirdan both be wolves? Or is one only playing into the other's hand? Or am I wrong on both counts? Of course, it's possible.

However, consider. . .one of us is a Seer and one of us knows the identity of two people.

No more time.

-- Folwren

[Celuien]

Might I point out, Boro, that Volo also named you as 'talking sense'? I presume that means he was listing you as innocent. Meaning that you might also be the wolf hidden in his broad innocent list.

I'd be interested in hearing more about why you find me suspicious. Is there anything other than that Volo suspected me and that Menel also found me suspicious?

Personally, I'd be cautious about using anything from Volo's last post. His fate was pretty well sealed at that time, and what he said probably aimed more to causing confusion or frantically trying to save himself than anything else. At any rate, a known wolf's village words are inherently untrustworthy.

As for Menel, the last thing I would do if I were a wolf accused by him would be to kill him at night. Too obvious, and I'm not that bold.

Originally Posted by Boro, re Glirdy

That's a safe move for a wolf who's attack has seemed to fail and doesn't want to do a complete flip-flop.

And also the expected move of an innocent who made a case and had it answered (partially) to his satisfaction. This process is all about making a case to find a wolf, waiting for an answer, and reevaluating. Seems like that's exactly what he did, so it doesn't raise a red flag for me. I find that I trust Glirdan. *shrugs*

[Boromir88]

Might I point out, Boro, that Volo also named you as 'talking sense'? I presume that means he was listing you as innocent. Meaning that you might also be the wolf hidden in his broad innocent list.~Celuien

I didn't include myself because whatever I would say would obviously be seen as biased. I left that up for other people like yourself to interpret because there's no point on doing an analysis on myself.

I'd be interested in hearing more about why you find me suspicious. Is there anything other than that Volo suspected me and that Menel also found me suspicious?

Relax just a little bit. If you notice I said I probably won't be voting for you today. But of those that Volo listed as 'suspicious' I find that you are the most wolfish looking one. Because of the death of Menel.

Now that you do bring this up, I'm growing more concerned over you Celuien, especially with this comment here:

As for Menel, the last thing I would do if I were a wolf accused by him would be to kill him at night. Too obvious, and I'm not that bold.

The game my brother was in last village Valesse said pretty much this exact same thing to me when he started suspecting her. And Valesse turned out to be a wolf. It may not be the same here, but I'm getting more concerned about you. It looks like if you are trying to convince me that it would be way too bold and foolish for you to do such a thing. Which is exactly what wolf-Valesse tried to do.

And also the expected move of an innocent who made a case and had it answered (partially) to his satisfaction.

That's true.

[Celuien]

I did see that you were unlikely to vote for me, though I was wondering why you found me the most suspicious of the three Volo suspects. Since it's because of Menel, the only defense I have is the one that I've already given, which I apparently can't give without making you more suspicious of me.

Now I'm going to go and have some tea before I get myself into more trouble.

[Glirdan]

I think I may have to vote shortly and personally I still find something odd about Folwren. But now there have been a few good points raised against Mac.

From the points that Nogrod and Durelin have both brought up, Mac has been acting a little oddly from his previous ancestors as well.

What to do, what...to...do.....

[Nogrod]

This is actually getting pretty frustrating! I have gone forwards and backwards of all the things said and acts performed and I can see almost all of you others as wolves trying to do this or that! That is the power of the imagination... at least when one has nothing solid to back one's views.

Glirdy: don't go too easily with the points made by myself and Durelin on Macalaure. I thought I had spotted the wolf as I made my points on him earlier (and I still think that it is a possible scenario), but after scanning around, I have come up with a number of other scenarios too. So just come up with a vote from your own premises and declare them. At this point of the game we need actual ideas, not trailing...

Yes, one might just be a bit late (due to RL) and see that others have said what you kind of wished to say, but still, give us your own point of view and the reasoning behind it (how you yourself came to suspect X)! Otherwise I will think that you are being opportunistic... and which characters we know loving that stance? I have not forgotten my suspicions of you yesterDay even though they have been quite shallow toDay as I have turned my attention elsewhere...

[Glirdan]

Thank you Nogrod for saying that for I have made up my mind. Though I had it made up a few hours back. I just needed to consider everything else that had been said.

And with that, I vote

++Folwren

For reasons I have said earlier. There is something that's seriously bugging me with her.

[Folwren]

Boromir, I don't understand your suspicion of Celuien. Menel's suspicion was so slight I hardly noticed. He said that it would either be her or me that he voted for and he decided to vote for me because there seemed to be more evidence against me, as there was. His suspicion of Celuien was mere speculation - he said:

I'm not too sure about Celuien myself. From what she said yesterday, she mainly repeats what was said and then says she will be going for the middle ground. I don't really find that extremely suspicious but something doesn't sit right...

And then later he said:

My vote will probably be either for Folwren or Celuien toDay, and I'm inclined to suspect Folwren more. I'll be back around 11:30 to vote. Don't eat all my jelly doughnuts, please.

On day one there's not much to tell of anybody. That was just a thought of his. I don't think it's enough to say that Celuien, being a wolf, knocked Menel off so that he couldn't continue his suspicion of her. Menel was a good player, and smart, and that may be explanation enough as to why the wolves killed him.

Celuien also voted for Volo. Second person to, I think. If she were a wolf, I highly doubt she'd vote for him and bring more attention to him.

Nogrod's

This is actually getting pretty frustrating! I have gone forwards and backwards of all the things said and acts performed and I can see almost all of you others as wolves trying to do this or that!

sounds genuine enough. For now, I'm willing to think him a friend.

Glirdan. . .it's kind of hard to like someone who's trying to kill you.

Lommy. . .it's almost equally hard to like someone who first brought suspicion on you, especially when it causes so much trouble. But I forgive her, so long as she's not proven guilty. No thoughts, therefore.

Time to eat, must go.

-- Folwren

[Nogrod]

Okay. Against all reason or self-protection, knowing that I'm not able to defend myself when the heat will be on (as you all innocents are annoyed about myself making all these suspicions on you), I will go for this and arouse suspicion on most of you. Rest assured, I can't see you all as wolves, that is just impossible, but I hope one or two (!) of my ideas hold true or / and that these ideas might contribute for a succesful Day2 lynching (I will probably only be able to pop in and vote after this in something like 7 hours from now).


Folwren and Durelin I hold as innocents right now, due to the way they have posted. If pressed, I would think Folwren a bit more innocent than Durelin.

Thinlomien has computer-access problems. I know this. But her readiness to jump on Folwren might be seen as wolvish tactics taking advance of the RL situation? But otherwise, it might be just trying to find the best argument one might find early on the Day1 when forced to leave the computer.

Glirdan: How come you duck away all the suspicions and beautifully go for a "safe vote" again? It seems you had really not thought of your vote but just went along with what could be seen as reasonable - even though many of us have thought otherwise. Not too much time to read through and happy to cling into something?

Diamond18: Now what is this? I love your language and attitude but I am starting to suspect you too. Why is it that you are so careful not to say anything that would offend anyone? My lorebooks tell me that your family is much more vocal in these matters when innocent!

Eonwe posts more in quantity and with more reason as no forefather of his I have seen. Should we think this is an "at last a wolf"-Eonwe wishing to make a difference or just an Eonwe who wishes to actually play the game for a change?

Rune I suspected a lot yesterDay, but now I'm not so sure about the grounds of my suspicions of him. He was nicely trailing the arguments Menel and Boro were making and looked like a wolf hunkering behind the arguments of the vocal ones. Also his touchiness about the force majeure -leaving the game looked a bit odd. His defence of Folwren toDay seemed genuine enough, but that also might be a good tactics by a wolf trailing the general impression? But this I find most disturbing, unless he really comes about with a good case:

Originally Posted by Rune #83

I have a chief suspect, but I need to observe the person for a bit to figure out if my theory holds water. . .

I can se the reason why he is not willing to disclose the one he is after, but why to mention it in the first place? Making oneself look as a goody?

THE Ka: I would hope you to tell us what you meant by the following:

Originally Posted by The Ka #93

I'm beginning to see that maybe our wolves are not working together so well, but that depends on whether all of this flustering is not a cover up for it... Either our wolves were scrambling yesterday, and had somewhat of a disarray, or all of this flustering is a neat diversion for confusion.

It looks like a deep insight to the wolf-mind. I mean not the usual "yes I can imagine how they thought" but actually how could you deduce the things you've said, the internal conflicts or bad co-operation, if not having the experience of being one?

Macalaure I made a case against earlier. I still suspect there is something wrong with Mac but I'm not sure about it anyhow. But my guts say there's something different this time.

Then there is the spat between Celuien and Boro... I'll come to it soon...

[Eonwe]

Well, Glirdan, you may have stated your reasons earlier, but I still dont' think they are good ones. You seem a bit to eager to get rid of Folwren than you should be. First of all, Folwrens 'bad vibes' just aren't coming through to me. Either way, I think its you that comes out looking worse than Folwren.

Therefore, I think you are the best vote for me, especially becuase this will be the last time I can get on before the deadline.

++Glirdan

[Diamond18]

Just posting to say that I have arrived... I've read through all the posts but since you've all been quite talkative it'll take me a while to make heads or tails of it all. I just wanted to comment on:

Originally Posted by Celuien

Personally, I'd be cautious about using anything from Volo's last post. His fate was pretty well sealed at that time, and what he said probably aimed more to causing confusion or frantically trying to save himself than anything else. At any rate, a known wolf's village words are inherently untrustworthy.

It looked to me like Volo wasnt really aware that he was doomed when he posted that up. He'd posted earlier saying he was working on a post and at that point his fate was not sealed. So I suspect that post is still in the mindset of a wolf trying to fool the village into thinking its the viewpoint of an innocent.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Diamond18: Now what is this? I love your language and attitude but I am starting to suspect you too. Why is it that you are so careful not to say anything that would offend anyone? My lorebooks tell me that your family is much more vocal in these matters when innocent!

Yeah. I used to have more time. Now I don't... and consequently my werewolf a-game has been pretty much all shot to pieces. So I'm more hesitant to cast judgement when I'm aware that I haven't done the re-reading and throurough contemplating I used to be able to do. Anyway, there goes my sob story. I'll be around later with my thoughts.

[Nogrod]

It's funny that Boro left himself out from his Volo-analysis of people (albeit the reasoning).

It's also funny that the adventures of his father play such a role (at least three mentionings) in his arguments. Like he would like to show himself as the innocent one being again used for his confidence of others... what could be better for a wolf?

Originally Posted by Boro #82

Well, I'm not inclined to believe Folwren's innocent. My guess is they want to set up Folwren for an easy kill today as he had attracted quite a bit of suspicion yesterday. But, based upon the craziness that happened at the end of the day yesterday, I get the feeling Folwren's innocent.

This might just be aslip of the hands on the keyboard, but why on earth would an innocent go about with that kind of contradiction? As I said earlier in regard to Glirdy, the wolves make these mistakes, not the innocents...

Originally Posted by Boro #95

I have a feeling that either Glirdan (who is the one continuing the attack today) or Thinlomien, (who started the attack) is a wolf. As I find it pretty obvious that Folwren's innocent.

Aren't you a bit too happy to cast the guilt? I mean you don't give us any reasons. That is quite un-Boromir-like, I daresay? You suspected Folwren when we were in the middle of Day1 (as I did too). Lommy pointed to reasonable causes for her being a villain and we all probably agree on that if we're honest. It would be comfortable for a wolf to trail that accusation and thus enhance a case over someone with your general authority? I wouldn't vote for Lommy, at least for now, but more likely the one who would like to make a case against her at the moment with these grounds...

Sorry Boro. I have kind of lost our mutual trust for now, but that doesn't mean I'm right right now.

PS. Eonwe: your vote kind of shouts lycantrophy for miles away!!! Maybe I should rethink all this before I wake up tomorrow...

X-ed with Di

[Macalaure]

Again, I have to make it short. I only skimmed today's posts and can't comment on what has been said about me.

What caught my eye was Boro's analysis of Volo. He says that we cannot make much out of his first two posts, which is correct, but he then immediately turns to his last post, forgetting the third. This is not the kind of fault that I am used to see of Boromir and made me wary.

Out of the third post I found most interesting what Volo said about Durelin.

#15 Durelin says something random and a random vote on THE Ka
...
#26 Glirdan sends a vote for Durelin because of the random vote for THE Ka. I agree that those randomers have no right to be here, but RL stuff might be the reason in such cases on day1...

If Volo dislikes 'randomers' so much, why didn't he say it when he commented on her post? He only states the facts then. Then he says that randomers 'don't have a right to be here', pretty strong in my mind, but already in the next half sentence he makes the effort to take the pressure back again.
Being suspicious without being really suspicious is a way in which wolves sometimes treat each other, looking good if the other is lynched without furthering the lynching.

A thin case, I know, but I don't have the time to search for better/more.

++Durelin

By the way, should I not live to see Day 3, I find Nogrod, Celuien and Folwren quite innocent - at the moment.

[Diamond18]

Bloody hell... this is the first time I've been able to get the 'Downs to work in the past... 12 hours. Not to say I've been checking every minute of the past 12 hours, but pretty much every time I checked back I got nothin'. So I'm really quite frustrated, because I haven't even been able to read over the thread. *sigh* Luckily though I can be around till the deadline so, unless it goes down again, I've still got time.

[Boromir88]

Boromir, I don't understand your suspicion of Celuien.~Folwren

I think you mean to say you don't agree. You show that you understand it quite well, it isn't all that complicated, but you just don't agree. Which is perfectly ok, I'm offering ideas and possibilities, you can either agree with them or not (obviously). I like an objective opinion though, it let's me see the whole picture better, as we can all be narrow-minded at times.

It's funny that Boro left himself out from his Volo-analysis of people (albeit the reasoning).

Believe me or not, it's up to you, but I think you have a good knowledge of how my family is, and I never do an analysis on myself, nor include myself in any of my own lists.

It's also funny that the adventures of his father play such a role (at least three mentionings) in his arguments. Like he would like to show himself as the innocent one being again used for his confidence of others... what could be better for a wolf?

Why do you find it 'funny' that I use past experiences for an argument against people? That's what we all do, that's what this whole thing over strategy is about. What is the typical way wolves usually act? Does somebody's actions remind me of a wolves action in a past experience? How do I think each singer would act like as a wolf, based upon their family history. I used the village most recently, because you can't deny that the outcome of that village changed the way I started feeling about trusting people based off of votes. If you are more inquiry, you can search through all my records, I used experiences of past villages in all of them.

This might just be aslip of the hands on the keyboard, but why on earth would an innocent go about with that kind of contradiction?

Thanks for pointing that out, I didn't notice that before. Should read 'I'm now inclined...' as I've been saying since my very first post today I think Folwren is likely innocent.

Aren't you a bit too happy to cast the guilt? I mean you don't give us any reasons.

I do give reasons, in that same post, you just missed them for some reason. They're right there for everyone to see:

Call me a softy, but I've brought into Folwren's pleads. In the chaos and upped pace of the last minutes yesterday, it's understandable that Folwren was voting to save her life (eventhough if it turned out to be unnecessary).

Which leads me to Glirdan who has continued an attack on Folwren today. Since I find Folwren innocent, it's either that Glirdan is an innocent that fell into the wolves plan. Or he actually is a wolf pushing for Folwren's lynching. From what I know of Glirdan (which has been a very short history of records) he is the agressive attack type, so it wouldn't surprise me if he's a wolf in this situation.

Then there's Thinlomien, who got the ball rolling yesterday against Folwren. I had agreed with Thinlo's points, as because as far as Day 1's go it was one of the more sensible looking arguments. But, as the Day closed yesterday I grew wary of a vote against Folwren (for rather obvious reasons that I've made more clear today).

Sorry Boro. I have kind of lost our mutual trust for now, but that doesn't mean I'm right right now.

I don't expect to simply just have trust. I have to earn it and so far, at least for you, I haven't earned it; that's completely understandable.

What caught my eye was Boro's analysis of Volo. He says that we cannot make much out of his first two posts, which is correct, but he then immediately turns to his last post, forgetting the third. This is not the kind of fault that I am used to see of Boromir and made me wary.~Mac

I can understand how you think that, as I didn't make any mention of his 3rd post. I did take it into consideration, just didn't mention it because it wasn't much help. First off it was a summary, second of all his thoughts intertwined are either simply agreeing/disagreeing, or regurgitations of his last post.

Edit: x-posted with Diamond

[Boromir88]

Bloody hell... this is the first time I've been able to get the 'Downs to work in the past... 12 hours.~Di

It appears that a lot have been having this...as there's been very little action and I've been trying too...it's still acting a bit sluggish.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Yeah It takes forever just to get to make a reply and if I try to look at the previouse pages, I loose conection completely. It makes this whole thing a bit harder. . . anyhow I am around for the next bit of time.

[Celuien]

I can finally post! Been trying for about 12 hours.

We have two votes so far - Eonwe for Glirdan and Mac for Durelin. I can't say that I find either vote recipient suspicious. My family has known their families for many generations. Durelin has seemed so far to be following in the footsteps of the innocent foremothers my family knew, so though I'm not sure that she's innocent, she has an innocent feel for me. As for Glirdy, he is the prototypical innocent Glirdy who finds a hunch and runs with it, then gets the village after him until being lynched. I continue to feel pretty certain that he is not a wolf.

Originally Posted by Diamond

It looked to me like Volo wasnt really aware that he was doomed when he posted that up. He'd posted earlier saying he was working on a post and at that point his fate was not sealed. So I suspect that post is still in the mindset of a wolf trying to fool the village into thinking its the viewpoint of an innocent.

That's a good point. It's hard for me to figure out the exact timeline. I still don't trust the post as far as I can throw it.

I'm not really sure whom I should vote for. Boromir is making me unasy, but I don't trust myself since that's largely based on our spat. Must think...

[Folwren]

You can not imagine the ill luck I've been having this morning and last night while trying to get onto the 'Downs. I'm fair ready to burst with impatience with this computer! I see it's not necessarily my computer's fault with everyone else complaining of the same thing. ..strange

Well, I'm not running any chances. This may be my last chance to write before closing time.

Boromir is making sense with his thoughts. I am not inclined to think of him as guilty just now. It can wait, I think.

Glirdan annoys me immensely.

Nogrod is making sense, too.

I can't go over everybody, they're calling me up to make the eggs for breakfast. Blasted time and blasted computer! I don't want to vote for Lommy becuase she hasn't had a chance to defend herself or to even play, really.

I'm going for Glirdan. It's based off of my own gut feeling, Boromir's reasoning, and my dislike of being attacked so forociously.

++Glirdan

[the guy who be short]

By the Will of Diamond and Celuien and Rune, apparently Day hasn't ended yet. My mistake. Do carry on.

This post will self destruct at 5pm BST / 12 noon EST, which is incidentally when Day actually ends.

Sorry about the inconvenience.