T-I-G CVIII: Wolves of the Galadhrim (Game Thread)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Agan being alive aside, there's something from the narration that worries me, and that's Nimrodel's part at the end. When she says there's "another way", am I the only one that finds that to be a bit sinister?

I have to wonder if Nimrodel really did go over to the wolves since Amroth died - which would lend credence to what Rikae said about Aganwolf claiming to have dreamt Nimrodel being a safe play.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

4) Rikae, I'm wondering if the wolves are trying to be bold and frame up Agan. It's a small village, just a little bit of doubt goes a long way.

This doesn't make sense though, not just for framing purposes, not when they could have killed me then and there. They must have thought of that and it probably contributed, but it can't be the main reason.

Basically I have two options now.

It's possible they thought I could be a cobbler. I know I was being flimsy and sort of trigger-happy yesterday (although by no means enough to get three votes ). And I know that sometimes when I'm a wolf I leave suspected gifteds (or known innocents, as Kitanna - and Nerwen and sally - will remember, or general pains in the neck) alive on the off-chance they're the cobbler. So yeeess I'm a harmless little seer, what can I do for you to survive another night?

The other option (and one that feels more plausible the more I think about it) is that we have a cursed/shapeshifter the wolves know about. That's the best explanation I can think for Boro's death - he made one vaguely evil-looking remark and died, even when the wolves could have got me (really I'm a little upset here - who would take someone else when they can have me? ), which makes me think they must have been after something specific. A cursed would also explain the 2-3 wolves.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Nimrodel is the only other gifted left, right? So, Agan says that she happened to dream of her, and then says she won't reveal who it is without her permission. Which, fair enough, I guess, but that's also the most convenient excuse to not have to be right about dreams currently possible in this game. I'm not convinced.

I'm just pointing out that I wouldn't need an excuse not to be right. The odds of randomly picking an ordo for a "dream" are high, and I wouldn't have to worry about fooling the wolves. I'll be happy to give you Nimrodel's name if I see her suggest (as discreetly as she wants) she'd prefer I did that, but I will not do it without her consent because I don't know the specifics of her role and don't want to put her at a disadvantage just to prove myself.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Nimrodel's part at the end. When she says there's "another way", am I the only one that finds that to be a bit sinister?

To the best of my knowledge, she's not on the wolves' side so I wouldn't be too worried about the narration - I think her "another way" might mean she won't kill herself without avenging Amroth first, making her a hunter/assassin-like character.

I have one request. Don't spend all your day talking about me (tempting as I know it must be). That will only serve the wolves who'll get to swim through the day with little to no scrutiny.

Also, I'm not happy about how quick Lottie is to discredit me.

In any case I'm glad to see Rikae here!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It's possible they thought I could be a cobbler. I know I was being flimsy and sort of trigger-happy yesterday (although by no means enough to get three votes ). And I know that sometimes when I'm a wolf I leave suspected gifteds (or known innocents, as Kitanna - and Nerwen and sally - will remember, or general pains in the neck) alive on the off-chance they're the cobbler. So yeeess I'm a harmless little seer, what can I do for you to survive another night?

That could make sense. There was a lot of cobbler talk yesterDay.

The other option (and one that feels more plausible the more I think about it) is that we have a cursed/shapeshifter the wolves know about. That's the best explanation I can think for Boro's death - he made one vaguely evil-looking remark and died, even when the wolves could have got me (really I'm a little upset here - who would take someone else when they can have me? ), which makes me think they must have been after something specific. A cursed would also explain the 2-3 wolves.

Are wolves usually told when there's a cursed in play? I've only been cursed once before (one of Sally's games), and I'm pretty sure the wolves didn't know before they turned me that that was a possibility.

I'm just pointing out that I wouldn't need an excuse not to be right. The odds of randomly picking an ordo for a "dream" are high, and I wouldn't have to worry about fooling the wolves. I'll be happy to give you Nimrodel's name if I see her suggest (as discreetly as she wants) she'd prefer I did that, but I will not do it without her consent because I don't know the specifics of her role and don't want to put her at a disadvantage just to prove myself.

The odds of accidentally picking an ordo are high. The odds of being right when it comes to Nimrodel when you'll only reveal the name after you've picked up on a hint from Nimrodel that it's okay to do so are even higher.

I have one request. Don't spend all your day talking about me (tempting as I know it must be). That will only serve the wolves who'll get to swim through the day with little to no scrutiny.

I agree. Even if you are a wolf, I don't think we should lynch you toDay. I think we should leave you alone for at least another Night, just in case you are Galadriel after all. However, given that I suspect you of wolvery, I'll be going back through yesterDay's voting, particularly surrounding you, to see if it leads to the rest of your pack.

[Loslote]

Kitanna -> Tar (1)
Lottie -> Boro (1)
McCaber -> Agan (1)
Shasta -> Sally (1)
Cop -> Agan (2)
Tar -> Agan (3)
Agan -> Tar (2)
Sally -> Tar (3)

Did not vote:
Rikae
Boro
Farael

From this, it seems unlikely that Cop or McCabbie would be Agan's packmate.

It's possible that Shasta could be, and was trying to add another candidate without jumping on the other two options (both, as we know now, innocent) and potentially looking like a bandwagoner, but that is in no way conclusive. Similarly, Sally could have voted to save her packmate, or she could have just voted to save the newly revealed Seer, which is a completely understandable thing for an innocent to do.

I don't think we can say anything about Kit or my vote - we both voted before Agan's name came up, and both pretty randomly, and
Rikae and Farael are not particularly analyzable based on voting records.

However, Rikae has expressed distrust towards Agan's reveal toDay, and Agan hasn't really responded directly to her, though she did respond directly to me with regards to my distrust about her reveal. If Rikae and Agan were packmates, I would have expected them to play that up a bit more - have Rikae lead the charge, stage a loud battle between Agan and Rikae, and let Rikae take the glory for finding a wolf, thus making her seem much more innocent. If Agan is a wolf, I would probably say that Rikae is probably not her packmate.

Similarly, though, if Agan is actually the Seer, I'm not sure Rikae, as a wolf, would have left her alive and then expressed doubt about the reveal. Either way, I'm feeling pretty good about Rikae.

Overall, I'm feeling worst about Shasta and Kit - Sally's vote was pretty natural for either an innocent or a wolf, but her posts generally felt like normal, innocent Sally to me. We haven't heard from Farael yet, and I guess he could be a wolf, but there's not much to be done on that front.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Are wolves usually told when there's a cursed in play? I've only been cursed once before (one of Sally's games), and I'm pretty sure the wolves didn't know before they turned me that that was a possibility.

Sometimes yes, sometimes not. I was the cursed in Kitanna's game some years back and both the wolves and me knew about my role - but then, it was publically listed among the other roles. The seer revealed two wolves the day after I was turned but Nerwen and I proceeded to win an epic victory, aided by our "known innocent" cobbler Mac whom we left alive night after night because we were sure it was him.

The odds of accidentally picking an ordo are high. The odds of being right when it comes to Nimrodel when you'll only reveal the name after you've picked up on a hint from Nimrodel that it's okay to do so are even higher.

Fair enough, I see your point.

What do you think you're trying to achieve looking at the voting with the premise that I'm a wolf, though? Analyse all you want, but you're wasting your time, which should be clear by tomorrow - I'll leave it up to the village to reach their conclusions. I can't really be even bothered to defend myself because the truth of my words will be obvious soon enough.

My brain isn't working properly anymore (I slept badly last night, haunted by dreams of Cop writing reeeeally long posts - I don't think there's a time I've played WW when it hasn't got into my dreams) and I have to get up early-ish so I'm heading to sleep.

I thought about keeping this information until morning but that will be late at night for most of you others so might as well reveal it now - my night 1 dream was Rikae who's (obviously) innocent. I had major plans for trying to communicate my dreams to her without revealing but, well, didn't happen.

edit: xed with Lottie

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Loslote

However, Rikae has expressed distrust towards Agan's reveal toDay, and Agan hasn't really responded directly to her, though she did respond directly to me with regards to my distrust about her reveal.

I think you'll find the answer for that in my previous post, Lottie.

Okay now tea and bed.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What do you think you're trying to achieve looking at the voting with the premise that I'm a wolf, though? Analyse all you want, but you're wasting your time, which should be clear by tomorrow - I'll leave it up to the village to reach their conclusions. I can't really be even bothered to defend myself because the truth of my words will be obvious soon enough.

Maybe. But this is the best lead I have so far, so I'm going to follow it. Whether or not you turn out to be a wolf after all, it's still a place to start, so I'll be taking closer looks at Kit and Shasta, to begin with.

[Rikae]

When I was reading through the posts I made a mental note that something seemed off in Kit's random vote. Yes, innocents can make random votes, but this particular random vote - well, for one thing, why not vote for Sally, if the whole idea is that her vote means nothing? An innocent wouldn't want to risk her random vote being the basis of a bandwagon, and someone who didn't speak is less likely to be lynched.

So anyway, toDay, Kitanna's post just after I showed up looks quite bad if Agan is indeed a wolf.

And if Agan is not a wolf, I'm a known innocent with no ranger and therefore dead. Bummer.

[Rikae]

Hm... what if Nimrodel actually became an illogical hunter? That would make sense, and wouldn't 100% help the village, either.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I had major plans for trying to communicate my dreams to her without revealing but, well, didn't happen.

Aw man, that would have been cool.

[Farael]

*Sigh*

I'm really sorry folks. I foolishly assumed there'd be some comment on the Admin thread about the game starting. Since I am subscribed to the thread, I patiently waited for the e-mail to let me know... and missed Day1.

My bad. And I love Day1 silliness, so that double-sucks.

I have a few thoughts working their way through my brain, after a very confusing first day. Those who have played with me will remember I'm not a huge fan of exceedingly long posts with multiple quotations and person-by-person analysis. However, here are a few thoughts for now. I'll post again once I've had time to re-read Day 1 and what we have so far of Day 2.

Topic 1: I don't trust Agan

• Agan was about to get lynched when she (you are a she, right?) revealed she was Galadriel. I think it was reasonable to do. She then said she wouldn't give us the one known Ordo as that would only help the wolves... again, reasonable
• Agan then survived the night. There was a kill, however, so that leaves us with two possibilities. a) The wolves attacked Agan who was protected by a ranger-like figure (probably the second lover) and then a Hunter-like figure offed Boromir... or, most likely b) The wolves went for Boro for some reason, and left Agan alive
• This then leads me to think that Agan is either lying or the wolves are trying to get us to do their dirty work for them.
• Then Agan goes out and gives us a "known" Ordo (Rikae). Why would she do that? Rikae hasn't said much yet, and she's not under suspicion. Agan didn't save Rikae's life as much as condemn her to a death in Night 3 (as the wolves will likely off Agan and then off our one "known" ordo)
• Furthermore. Agan essentially told Nimrodel to show herself if she wants to be outed by the Seer. In other words, she encouraged our last remaining gifted to drop hints of her identity... why? What does she win by showing herself on Day 2 when (presumably) she isn't under suspicion?
• To conclude, I don't trust Agan at all. Having said that, we shouldn't lynch her today. If she's the seer we'll likely lose her tonight and I'll feel foolish. If not, she'll survive and hopefully the true Seer will eventually come out and help lift us out of this mess

I'll look at other people today... but if I agree with Agan in ONE area is that we shouldn't waste too much of our breath on her. She'll either get mauled and be shown to be the Seer or she won't and dream of a Wolf... or she won't and we'll eventually know she IS a wolf.

Edit: X-ed with Rikae

[Farael]

My cross-post reminds me that I need to suspect Rikae

So here's my theory: If Agan is a wolf, then she might be trying to bluff by saying that Rikae is a "known" Ordo. When we find out that Agan was a wolf, Rikae will defend herself by saying it was too obvious a move.

Ok, now that I got some silly out of the way, I can be serious again... I don't suspect Rikae for such a convoluted reason

I suspect Rikae because it's a good idea to do so anyway

[Farael]

Originally Posted by McCaber

I'm in the same boat as Shasta when it comes to sleep schedules, but when there's not much to go on I'd rather vote someone who's talking. In my experience it's the innocents who tend to not show up, but wolves and gifted have that little extra bit of information that usually has them playing with more skin in the game.

So I'm going with

++ Aganzir

Her whole crazy drunkard act seemed artificial and overcalculated to me.

My emphasis -F

At this point the votes were:
Kitanna -> TJ (1)
Lottie -> Boro (1)

People have already remarked on how McCaber's logic seems a little backwards. "Wolves and gifted tend to talk more on Day 1 as they have more invested in the game. So I'll vote for one of the more talkative people". Completely ignoring that he may also be voting for a gifted.

Furthermore, he introduced a third person to the voting list. I think McCaber was in a pretty safe position to try a little Wolf-on-Wolf action, or at least cast a safe vote with iffy reasoning. In my opinion, he cast what seemed like a throw-away vote for someone who was participating and therefore less likely to be lynched (as, in my experience, talkative people often get a pass in Day 1, and it's the quiet but not too quiet people who get the axe).

Finally, by his own logic, he shouldn't be suspected. He was pretty quiet on Day 1 all things considered! So, obviously, he's neither a gifted nor a wolf.

I think McCaber has a lot to answer to, and I would like to see him talk more today. Otherwise, I shall be voting for him before the end of the (North American) night. I feel like, if he was a Wolf and Agan was still alive toMorrow, we'd have an interesting bit of information. I really think that McCaber was not expecting Agan to get in that much trouble.

[satansaloser2005]

Yes yes, hello, I'm here. Ahem. To business.

My sincere apologies to our fair ranger for your premature demise. I didn't have time yesterday to give more thought to what Agan might have been up to and acted in haste.

Agan is lying, end of story. There is no logical reason why the wolves would not kill a revealed seer. There's one wolf down in my head, but as there seem to be enough people in doubt on the subject, I'll save my vote for the moment and focus my efforts elsewhere.

Why Boro is the real question here. It doesn't make any sense to me (at least at the moment). I'll have my own look at my prince's posts and see if I can see anything.

Back in a bit with further thoughts.


EDIT: x'd with a bunch of Farael

[Farael]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Agan is lying, end of story. There is no logical reason why the wolves would not kill a revealed seer. There's one wolf down in my head, but as there seem to be enough people in doubt on the subject, I'll save my vote for the moment and focus my efforts elsewhere.

I agree, but my only other theory is that...

Originally Posted by Sally (it's Sally, right?)

Why Boro is the real question here. It doesn't make any sense to me (at least at the moment). I'll have my own look at my prince's posts and see if I can see anything.

... the remaining Lover can both protect someone and act as a hunter. So they protected Agan and then turned around and killed Boro for some reason.

I think it's a weak theory and I think it's far more likely that Agan is a wolf. My third theory is that the wolves want us to do their dirty work for them... but why would a true Seer out Rikae as an Ordo when she was under no pressure?

Still, I'm willing to give Agan one more night, since we have 2-3 wolves out of 9 villagers. That means we have 6-7 "good" people. We can afford to give a "likely wolf" a chance to prove us wrong, since the Wolves will likely kill her toNight anyway if she's our Seer.

[Rikae]

Well, I can see why the seer who expects to die the next night would reveal an ordo. At the very least, you'll have one less person to analyze toMorrow and better chances of catching a wolf through process of elimination (though those chances are small this early on). And after all, better an ordo gets eaten on Night 3 than the last gifted (if she's good).

I keep wanting to assume Agan is evil and vote based on that assumption (for Kitanna, most likely), but that would be hasty. It could still be a risky wolf trick, although I could only imagine it if the wolves felt very safe from dreams themselves. Who would? Is anyone sleeping under that many reindeer...? It's a small village - I can't imagine any wolf feeling safe from the seer.

Why Boro? The only thing I noticed was how Lottie voted for him yesterDay on the basis of (as far as I can see) banter. Could his first post have looked like anything? If Agan's honest, the wolves aren't looking for the seer anymore anyway - perhaps they thought he was Nimrodel?
If Agan's lying, perhaps they thought Boro was the seer, or that his death would somehow make one of them look less suspicious... honestly, I don't think this is a very fruitful line of thought right now.

The deadline happens to be at the time I'm taking the wereduckling out to catch the school bus (tomorrow's her 6th birthday, actually) so I'll definitely have to vote early, probably in a few hours. I hope more people have spoken by then.

[Farael]

Well, it's bed time for me.

I'll likely be up about half an hour before the deadline, but I can't really guarantee I'll have time to read up on everything that's been going on, so it's time to vote for me.

Based on a really iffy reasoning for his Day 1 vote, and the fact that it appeared to be a safe vote for either a wolf-on-wolf OR just a throwaway vote so that no real suspicion would land on him, I nominate

++McCaber

for the guillotine. Elven guillotine that is.

I wish I had a little more to go on with... so European Ordos, I leave this mess for you to sort out!

[Rikae]

It's everybody do the opposite of what Rikae says day, isn't it?

Oh well, I'm afraid I have to vote with this little to go on. That leaves me with

++Kitanna

for previously mentioned and admittedly flimsy reasons.


Don't do anything I wouldn't do, kiddos.

[Loslote]

Looking back at Kit and Shasta, I've found little evidence pointing to either of them as wolves. Shasta has been very quiet, and what he has said has been mostly speculation about roles rather than suspicions about people, but nothing really stands out. Kit started off toDay expressing support for Agan, which (assuming Agan is a wolf, which assumption was the basis of my doubt about Kit in the first place) I don't think a wolf who knew full well that she'd be outed as a wolf sooner or later would have done. If I'm going to vote for one of them, it would be Shasta at this point, but I'm not completely comfortable with that.

I'll skim through again, look for anything else that might jump out at me more, but otherwise I'll have to vote pretty soon here.

[Loslote]

Alright then, I'm off to bed.

++Shasta

Good luck, village!

[Coppermirror]

Back and reading.

[satansaloser2005]

Let's get the big surprise out of the way first: I don't (presently) suspect Kit. Shocking, right? I hate to spoil a glorious tradition, but Kit and Agan discussing the possible implications of Nimrodel on Day 1 seems (at least on Kit’s end) innocent enough to me. While it’s true that the baddies would be as keen to know the lovers’ details as we are, her tone lends an air of ignorance rather than pot-stirring. Essentially I think a wolf Kit or a mystery gifted* Kit would not have this particular type of discussion with Agan; were she a wolf, they could have sent their secret messages during the Night, and were she a gifted, well, she would know what her role was, wouldn't she? Um, wouldn't she?

The only particular thing I could find from Boro was the use of the phrase “getting inside your head,” which, knowing how clever my prince can be, may have been picked up on by the wolves as a hint toward the seer’s true identity. I know it isn’t much, but there wasn’t much to go on, and the wolves were likely grasping at straws in this matter. Knowing there was no chance to undo Agan’s reveal, the quickest way to profit from the situation was to attempt to find the real seer before he or she could possibly reveal some of the sultry minx’s packmates. Obviously they were wrong, and now they will pay for their heinous crimes. My prince must be avenged!

In regards to above, I’ll note that Lottie made a quick point of that before voting for Boro, which, if my above theory is correct, could paint her in a rather bloody light. Other than that, I’ve not dedicated much time to her yet, I’ll admit.

While I hesitate to trust McCaber on principle (he’s the McCobbler, after all!), I think his logic this Day and the last has been sound (and not just because he voted Agan, promise). He tips toward the logical side of at least voting for someone who is around to defend themselves, and the fact that the vote was for Agan does honestly help his case, especially since he was the one who started the votes against her and we all know how unpredictable Day 1s can be; he easily could have been serving her up as a quick lynch, and I don’t believe Cab would take such a big risk, at least not on Day 1.

I find Shasta’s vote highly suspicious, however. I don’t find it within his nature to go after someone who hasn’t yet spoken their piece. Must he really go after someone who hasn't shown up, especially after the debacles we've had in the past with absent Day 1 lynchees? It’s bad form, and unusual form for him. If he is a wolf, he could easily use the events of the last game (I mean, really, I haven’t changed my avatar, for God’s sake) as a joking front for shifting the vote toward me and away from a compatriot. Say, Agan, perhaps?

Rikae looks okay to me (for the moment) mostly based on the fact that Agan specified her as a dream, and to have Rikae turn out the opposite of that reveal would ruin what small (and inexplicable) chance Agan has at keeping up this seer act. I'll reevaluate this later, as I know both of these ladies are capable of that level of shenanigans if not more, but for toDay, Rikae shifts into my ignore column. Like yesterDay, I simply have bigger fishes to sleep with- I mean fry.

Farael considers the options and has come to, in my opinion, the correct decision. It's been so long since we've played that I'm not sure of your style, but you certainly don't seem a threat at the moment (and yes, it's Sally).

Cop has given me no reason to notice her, and is, I must say, entirely off my radar. Her vote placed Agan solidly in the danger zone, which, much like Cab, I don't believe Cop would risk on Day 1 with so few in the village.

As for this gifted mess, my advice to the village is, at least for now, to ignore what Nimrodel might have been or may have become. If their alignment has shifted, the only evidence we have of their actions from before the change was Day 1, and in most of our cases, that isn't much to go on. I feel like spending time talking about the possibilities of that role is only going to detract from our true purpose, which is exactly what the wolves want. Only two of us can know what Nimrodel's role entails, and I doubt Nimrodel is going to talk, so it's a non-issue.

I need to vote soon and get to bed. A quick list as a recap....

Would vote:
Agan (HOW IS THIS NOT HAPPENING, YOU GUYS?)
Shasta
Lottie
Rikae

Would not vote:
Kit
Cop
Farael
McCaber
Sally (duh)

I'll post this (sorry for the delay, by the way) and catch up again before I vote in a second.


*Nimrodel, that is

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading, but I do want to voice my utter shock at this quote from Sally -

Originally Posted by Sally

I find Shasta’s vote highly suspicious, however. I don’t find it within his nature to go after someone who hasn’t yet spoken their piece.

Are you kidding me right now? After all of the literal on-thread fights I've gotten into with people about voting for people who haven't shown up so that people who have aren't penalized for it? -facepalm-

Anyway, I'll have other comments momentarily, that just stood out.

[satansaloser2005]

Full disclosure: I realize my above post assumes that Agan is not the seer, but....I mean really, come on. Even if -even if!- the wolves were afraid of Nimrodel or they wanted to confuse the village or they thought they could reap some other benefit from it, there's no way they wouldn't kill her. Each Day the seer lives is another Day they could reveal a wolf. It just doesn't make any sense at this stage and with these circumstances.

Also, she's Agan. Come on.

If I'm wrong on this, I hereby promise to mail Agan something lovely. It's only fair.


EDIT: x'd with Shasta

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Are you kidding me right now? After all of the literal on-thread fights I've gotten into with people about voting for people who haven't shown up so that people who have aren't penalized for it? -facepalm-

Anyway, I'll have other comments momentarily, that just stood out.

After the last game and after how much you've been sniped recently, I don't think you'd do it. Not yesterDay, and not to me. You know I always show up. You could have picked someone who had shown up but beaten around the bush, but you didn't. Agan being in trouble at the time makes it a way bigger red flag than it would have been otherwise, but your timing looks incredibly sketch, and I'm an easy bandwagon, which is why I think you picked me.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Okay, regarding Agan the Seer. Obviously, her still being alive is an issue, since we lynched our Ranger. On the one hand, we have the possibility that Agan is telling the truth about being Galadriel - we then have to consider why the wolves left her alive to continue to dream. The only thing I can see as a possibility is something to do with whatever Nimrodel is now; I can't think of any other good reason for the wolves to leave an outed, defenseless seer alive.

On the other hand, we have an Aganwolf, desperate not to be lynched on the first day and pulling a gamble (that ultimately paid off). This theory has the added benefit of explaining why she's still alive today.

Honestly, I'm leaning toward the latter scenario. The former relies too much on the wolves being ultra-timid, in my opinion (unless they know something we don't, which is possible, I suppose, but hard to speculate on).

So, following that assumption, I'm going to look next at the people who were quickest to condemn Agan. A wolf whose partner has an expiration date is almost sure to want to make themselves look good by throwing them under the bus.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

After the last game and after how much you've been sniped recently, I don't think you'd do it. Not yesterDay, and not to me. You know I always show up. You could have picked someone who had shown up but beaten around the bush, but you didn't. Agan being in trouble at the time makes it a way bigger red flag than it would have been otherwise, but your timing looks incredibly sketch, and I'm an easy bandwagon, which is why I think you picked me.

I don't believe I was in the last game (seriously don't remember if I was) and I haven't played in months, so I can't have been "sniped recently" (although it certainly has happened to me before). Yeah, I could have picked someone who'd posted thus far, but I fired on a submarine instead, like I usually do. You, Rikae, and Farael were the ones who hadn't shown up yet, Farael hasn't played in a super long time and I can, on occasion, think Rikae's evil. I think you're innocent every game (and you know that, because you've used that against me, and I know you've done it.)

Besides that, Agan was hardly in trouble when I voted. She didn't even garner her second vote until after I voted for you. Also, you being an "easy bandwagon" is entirely your opinion.

[Coppermirror]

♪
O unexpected fortune! Our Galadriel remains.
Over why and how and who, we must now wrack our brains.
Poor King Amroth, his end was cruel, despite his well-beloved rule,
And we must find the villains here before the Night grows cool.
♪

On Day 1 after placing my last post, I actually hung around until the deadline anyway and watched the whole trainwreck unfold. I believed Agan's Seer reveal, watched in horror as Tar-Jex got killed and turned out to be the Ranger, and have been angsting all since and dragging my heels about coming back toDay, thinking that when I did I'd find out that the wolves had killed a Seer-Agan overNight and it would be all my fault. But Agan is alive, and I've been angsting for nothing? I should have checked in first thing toDay rather than coming in late.

The natural assumption now is that Agan is a wolf, but it seems there are suggestions that the wolves didn't believe the Seer-reveal and think she's got another role. I don't know if that makes sense, but I'll read people's arguments over for a while and see if I can understand them better.

I agree that there is really no need, if Agan is a wolf, for the real Seer to counter-reveal at this stage.

I'm pretty confused about the goings-on toDay, but at least there's not a huge amount of stuff to analyse.

The vote talley so far is:

Farael -> McCaber (1) (does it count when it's not in red?)
Rikae -> Kitanna (1)
Lottie -> Shasta (1)

Yet to vote: Sally, McCaber, Shasta, Coppermirror, Kitanna, Aganzir.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Also, she's Agan. Come on.

I'm missing some context here! Could you fill me in?

[satansaloser2005]

The votes so far:
Farael-->McCaber (assuming it counts)
Rikae-->Kit
Lottie-->Shasta

Alas, I have to sleep now. There are currently nine of us, I'm not willing to widen the pool with such a small group, especially since I don't think Agan is really in the cards for toDay. Of the candidates currently on the block, I find Shasta the most suspicious.

++Shasta

Again, McCaber's vote from Day 1 looks quite innocent, and I'm inclined to give Kit a pass for the Day based on my musings in my longer post above. She's done very little though, so all of what I have is speculation, blah blah blah. In any case, I'm waffling enough on the subject that I'll not condemn her at this time.

To bed with me!


x'd since my last because I am super sleepy and nodding off

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I'm missing some context here! Could you fill me in?

No context missing at all, really. That last bit was just me being silly.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Farael -> McCaber (1) (does it count when it's not in red?)
Rikae -> Kitanna (1)
Lottie -> Shasta (1)

So I can't sleep, and I've been keeping a grumpy (because I can't sleep) eye on you all from my phone. I Just wanted to clarify that the red votes weren't a thing when I played last (I don't think they were... I don't even know how to make something red!)

So to clarify

++McCaber

For the same reasons as above.

Of all the recent discussion, there's been little of substance that has been said, really.

Originally Posted by Copper

The natural assumption now is that Agan is a wolf, but it seems there are suggestions that the wolves didn't believe the Seer-reveal and think she's got another role.

I don't know where that suggestion was made (granted, I AM sleepy)... I think that most of us assume that either Agan is a wolf or the wolves chose to ignore the Seer (or were unable to attack the Seer) for some reason. I know I am splitting hairs here, and it's possible this is all a misunderstanding, but if I'm missing something I'd like that explained!

Rikae and Loslote haven't given us much, but the village was quite quiet when we were all on earlier, so I'm not quite ready to point fingers in their direction

Shasta and Sally have been arguing back and forth, but they are sounding like two wary villagers and not particularly evil.

So, over all, my top two suspects are

• Agan whose role will likely be clarified toNight and...
• McCaber for his iffy reasoning and "safe" (but misfired) vote

I expect this to change in later Days, but now I need to sleep.

Vote wisely my villagers!

Edit: X-ed with Sally.

[Farael]

Post X-post post (heh)

Could anyone explain the Shasta votes? He's not particularly innocent sounding to me... but neither is he particularly suspicious. This seems like straw-grasping by Loslote and Sally.

Loslote voted early on with little chatter to go on with but... Sally why did you vote for Shasta? Because he cast a vote you didn't like? And why is my pet suspect McCaber getting a pass for "making sense"? He DIDN'T. His logic wasn't to vote for someone who can defend themselves... but rather to vote for someone likely to be a "special player" (and even acknowledged this included gifted!). And Kit seems as much (or little) a suspect as Shasta. So why this one of the three that were on the slate?

Sally, if you are off to bed, then I hope you can answer these questions toMorrow should we meet again. This all sounds very fishy.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't believe I was in the last game (seriously don't remember if I was) and I haven't played in months, so I can't have been "sniped recently" (although it certainly has happened to me before).

Recently is relative in Werewolf these days. I'm referring to recent games, not necessarily games that were played recently (which is definitely not how I should have worded that, but oh well). You've been quite frustrated at being killed in absentia (which I understand, as it's happened to me too, grumble grumble), and with Legate facing the same fate recently while on your side, I'm unwilling to believe you'd throw me so casually under the bus without giving me a chance to defend myself. Rather, I'm willing to believe it, but I don't think that was the situation yesterDay.

Besides that, Agan was hardly in trouble when I voted. She didn't even garner her second vote until after I voted for you. Also, you being an "easy bandwagon" is entirely your opinion.

Honey. Honey. You know how much I'm lynched. It's sort of a lot, and often for little or no reason. You're right in that Agan wasn't necessarily in trouble, but I didn't say she was; I said you were shifting focus onto me and away from someone else.

More importantly, just look at how much you jumped when I poked you....


EDIT: x'd with Farael

[satansaloser2005]

No, but seriously, I have to go to bed. My laptop's about to die and I have to work in a few hours. Sorry, loves. It's sleepy time for the cupcake. Lynch wisely!

[Coppermirror]

I'm not going to be voting any time soon. Going to get some dinner and spend a good long time looking through Days 1 and 2 until I think I've got a better grasp on it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So, looking back through the thread...

Rikae's first post of the game basically takes for granted that Agan's a wolf ("she's either a wolf, or the wolves are insane.") Kitanna posts a bit in apparent support of an "Agan was framed!" theory. Rikae posts in opposition to that.

Lottie then pulls out the first big hammer in post #77:

Originally Posted by Lottie

This. I was 99% sure I would wake up to find Agan dead - she'd outed herself as the Seer seconds before we lynched our Ranger, there was no reason for the wolves not to kill her. Unless, I guess, she was heavily suspicious of one of their own, and they didn't want to point fingers at themselves? But even that doesn't make sense. It was Day 1, she hadn't had time to be heavily suspicious of anyone, and the wolves could have just said, "oh, she was killed for being the Seer, not for suspecting any of us."

I guess maybe the wolves knew we'd suspect her for not having been killed, and hoped we'd lynch her today. But that seems risky - what if she'd dreamed of a wolf? It's a bold play, and one I'm not sure we could reasonably attribute to the wolves.


Nimrodel is the only other gifted left, right? So, Agan says that she happened to dream of her, and then says she won't reveal who it is without her permission. Which, fair enough, I guess, but that's also the most convenient excuse to not have to be right about dreams currently possible in this game. I'm not convinced.

Note: If Agan's reveal is fake, I don't think we necessarily need a counter-reveal by the real Galadriel. If you wouldn't normally have revealed toDay, don't worry about having to debunk Agan. We'll find out soon enough whether or not she's lying, whether that means we disbelieve her and lynch her (which, I would actually wait another Day, just to be on the safe side) or, if she is actually the real Seer, I can't believe the wolves would risk leaving her alive another Night.

I can't really disagree with the points here; they're fairly commonsensical. To me, though, this post has a certain surety to it - like Rikae, Lottie seems supremely confident of Agan's guilt. Which is fair enough, I suppose, but I've always been the type of player to at least consider both sides; unless you're the MC, you really can't take anything at 100% face value. There are situations that are obvious, sure - but at this point in time, I'd say the AganSeer situation deserves at least a cursory examination.

It's also interesting to me that Lottie doesn't want to actually lynch Agan today. That seems like a valid precaution... if you think there's a possibility Agan really is the Seer. That doesn't seem to be the case here, though, which makes me wonder if Lottie doesn't just want to be on record as opposing Agan in the event of Agan's eventual death.

Rikae also mentions that she's not suggesting we lynch Agan today. It's also interesting to note that Rikae hasn't (at this point) really given any consideration to the possibility that Agan might be telling the truth. She just seems more matter-of-fact about it than Lottie does.

-------------------------

So, by the start of page 3, we have Lottie and Rikae firmly in the anti-Agan camp and Kitanna in the "maybe she's being framed" camp.

Post #83 by Lottie appears to be an escalation of what she's already said; she's even more convinced Agan is a wolf, but also even more against lynching her today, "just in case". That seems rather counterintuitive to me - it also seems like the kind of distancing a wolf would do once she sees the suspicion train start to pick up on a packmate.

Another quote by Lottie (this is turning out to be quite the anti-Lottie post, isn't it?)

Originally Posted by Lottie

If Rikae and Agan were packmates, I would have expected them to play that up a bit more - have Rikae lead the charge, stage a loud battle between Agan and Rikae, and let Rikae take the glory for finding a wolf, thus making her seem much more innocent. If Agan is a wolf, I would probably say that Rikae is probably not her packmate.

This looks rather familiar...

Farael makes his debut in #91, also doesn't trust Agan (with bullet points!) and also doesn't want to lynch her today. However, while most of his bullet points are written from the point of view that Agan is a lying wolf, there's this one that confuses me -

Originally Posted by Farael

Then Agan goes out and gives us a "known" Ordo (Rikae). Why would she do that? Rikae hasn't said much yet, and she's not under suspicion. Agan didn't save Rikae's life as much as condemn her to a death in Night 3 (as the wolves will likely off Agan and then off our one "known" ordo)

I mean, if I were the Seer and I was almost sure I'd be dead soon (either by false lynch or nightkill) I'd probably tell what I knew. I'd feel pretty silly if the person I dreamt innocent was lynched after I died, for instance. In any case, what confuses me here is that most of Farael's post appears to be written from the point of view that he doesn't trust Agan, but this point appears to be written to be true if Agan is the Seer?

I may just be misreading, or miscomprehending, or something. It's 1:30 am. If you could clarify, Farael, that'd be good.

Post #94, Sally shows up, immediately decides that Agan is lying. As of right now, literally Agan' only possible supporter is Kitanna (at least, of those who have posted.)

Oh! Farael does clarify what he meant a bit in post #95, with the Nimrodel-as-protector theory. I'll grant that it seems rather far-fetched, but given that there's no real way to say definitively that it's not the case, I think it deserves at least a bit of thought.

Post #99, Lottie again. She's been looking at Kitanna and I, and ends up deciding to vote for me based on Kitanna supporting Agan earlier in the day. So, what I'm getting from this is... if you support Agan, you're not suspicious, but as per what Lottie said previously, if you're skeptical of Agan's claim (cf. everyone else who's posted thus far), you're not really suspicious either?

And that's me caught up.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Recently is relative in Werewolf these days. I'm referring to recent games, not necessarily games that were played recently (which is definitely not how I should have worded that, but oh well). You've been quite frustrated at being killed in absentia (which I understand, as it's happened to me too, grumble grumble), and with Legate facing the same fate recently while on your side, I'm unwilling to believe you'd throw me so casually under the bus without giving me a chance to defend myself. Rather, I'm willing to believe it, but I don't think that was the situation yesterDay.



Honey. Honey. You know how much I'm lynched. It's sort of a lot, and often for little or no reason. You're right in that Agan wasn't necessarily in trouble, but I didn't say she was; I said you were shifting focus onto me and away from someone else.

More importantly, just look at how much you jumped when I poked you....


EDIT: x'd with Farael

Originally Posted by Sally

Agan being in trouble at the time makes it a way bigger red flag than it would have been otherwise

Uh... you wanna try running that last bit by me one more time?

Also, if you want to talk about jumping when poked, let's talk about how you came into the day with suspicions aimed right at me, solely because I literally threw away a principle vote on you yesterday. I was literally not even suspicious of you. It was Day 1.

Did I jump when you poked me? Maybe. But I've been getting poked by Lottie all day (even if I wasn't here for it).

[Nerwen]

The Tally
Farael —> McCaber (0.5)
Rikae —> Kitanna (1)
Loslote —> Shasta (1)
Sally —> Shasta (2)
Farael (again) —> McCaber (1)

[Aganzir]

Heyy I'm here. I'm afraid I won't be very useful though, another bad night (this time with no WW dreams though) and I'm knackered, and it doesn't really help that my corner of the world only gets about 5 hours of daylight at this time of year.

Okay reading.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Alright, I've really got to get to bed. I guess no one else is around right now...

I'd love to vote for Lottie, but in the interests of self-preservation it's looking like I'll have to vote Kit or McCaber, and of the two...

++McCaber

Good night.