Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Pitchwife]

*wipes froth from moustache*
Ah! That was good. Now, where was I?
Oh yes. While we're discussing the laws decreed by our esteemed Mayor, there's another thing that occupied my mind during my morning labour:

Originally Posted by Mayor Eönwë

And if that person is a wolf, then he or she will not be able to join his or her fellows, which will lead to less carnage in the Night.

I take this to mean that if we happen to Guard a wolf, the beast will be prevented from any wolvish doings for the duration of that Night. For most of the time, that won't help us much, but it might be of interest in two situations:

• early on, while there are still four wolves around; if one of them is Guarded and can't join the pack, there will be only three wolves doing any Nightly wolfing, hence - if I understand Eönwë's words correctly - no double kill that Night;
• later on, if there's only one lone wolf left (provided we ever get that lucky), there'll be no Night-kill at all if he's Guarded.

Not quite sure how (or indeed if) we can use that to our advantage. I'm wondering whether it may affect the wolves' willingness to try a fake reveal if success means their Nightly forces will be weakened. To be sure, they'll gladly pay the price if it means the rest of the pack can take out the real Seer or Ranger, and it's certainly no option to waste our Guard on a likely wolf-suspect; on the other hand, it might come in handy when we have one or more suspects we want to prevent from doing any mischief just in case, while not having sufficient evidence to lynch them.
All this only as long as none of our gifteds has revealed, of course; in which case it's our duty to Guard them.
But I admit, I haven't really thought this through completely. Just thought I'd bring it up for discussion - what do you think?

(x-ed with Nog and everybody after him, need to digest)

[Mnemosyne]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

*wipes froth from moustache*
Ah! That was good. Now, where was I?
Oh yes. While we're discussing the laws decreed by our esteemed Mayor, there's another thing that occupied my mind during my morning labour:

I take this to mean that if we happen to Guard a wolf, the beast will be prevented from any wolvish doings for the duration of that Night. For most of the time, that won't help us much, but it might be of interest in two situations:

• early on, while there are still four wolves around; if one of them is Guarded and can't join the pack, there will be only three wolves doing any Nightly wolfing, hence - if I understand Eönwë's words correctly - no double kill that Night;
• later on, if there's only one lone wolf left (provided we ever get that lucky), there'll be no Night-kill at all if he's Guarded.

Not quite sure how (or indeed if) we can use that to our advantage. I'm wondering whether it may affect the wolves' willingness to try a fake reveal if success means their Nightly forces will be weakened. To be sure, they'll gladly pay the price if it means the rest of the pack can take out the real Seer or Ranger, and it's certainly no option to waste our Guard on a likely wolf-suspect; on the other hand, it might come in handy when we have one or more suspects we want to prevent from doing any mischief just in case, while not having sufficient evidence to lynch them.
All this only as long as none of our gifteds has revealed, of course; in which case it's our duty to Guard them.
But I admit, I haven't really thought this through completely. Just thought I'd bring it up for discussion - what do you think?

Nice catch!

Wish I had time to discuss it more. Since I don't,

++Guard Boro

and

++wilwarin538

Nothing personal, m'dear; just a crack theory I have right now...

[Brinniel]

Yikes, I just realised I probably have to vote in less than an hour. Deadline is in the middle of my day which is inconvenient, so I may or may not be back before then.

About this whole seer reveal thing. While on one hand it sounds like a great way to keep the seer both alive and dreaming, it's true that so many things could go wrong. Not only could there be counter-reveals, but if we are unlucky enough to have our ranger killed overNight, then we'll definitely be in trouble. I agree it's certainly something we could do further up the road, in a few Days or at least after the seer has dreamt of a wolf. But Day One seems awfully early for a seer reveal, and really just too risky.

Okay, I don't have time to say much more and I do have to vote shortly. Unfortunately, it'll have to be somewhat random; my bad since I could've done better than random if I had woken up earlier to allow more time.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I take this to mean that if we happen to Guard a wolf, the beast will be prevented from any wolvish doings for the duration of that Night. For most of the time, that won't help us much, but it might be of interest in two situations:

• early on, while there are still four wolves around; if one of them is Guarded and can't join the pack, there will be only three wolves doing any Nightly wolfing, hence - if I understand Eönwë's words correctly - no double kill that Night;
• later on, if there's only one lone wolf left (provided we ever get that lucky), there'll be no Night-kill at all if he's Guarded.

Not quite sure how (or indeed if) we can use that to our advantage. I'm wondering whether it may affect the wolves' willingness to try a fake reveal if success means their Nightly forces will be weakened. To be sure, they'll gladly pay the price if it means the rest of the pack can take out the real Seer or Ranger, and it's certainly no option to waste our Guard on a likely wolf-suspect; on the other hand, it might come in handy when we have one or more suspects we want to prevent from doing any mischief just in case, while not having sufficient evidence to lynch them.
All this only as long as none of our gifteds has revealed, of course; in which case it's our duty to Guard them.
But I admit, I haven't really thought this through completely. Just thought I'd bring it up for discussion - what do you think?

(x-ed with Nog and everybody after him, need to digest)

I have been actually thinking about the same at first, but it sounded too good and too advantageous to be true. Well, I think you are not right at least in the second thought - I mean in the one that if we have 3 or less Wolves and we Guard one of them, there will be no kill that Night. Of course there will be, from the two other remaining Wolves.

But it indeed seems - or at least you support me in thinking so - that if we have 4 WWs and Guard one of them, there will be only one kill per Night. Isn't it a bit strong? Well, maybe (though it could be argued that we have little chance to pick and guard a Wolf early on, and later on, again, we will probably have only three WWs, so not much of a difference). But indeed, in the beginning, it might be interesting to try to vote for some "ambiguous" players and thus see if we can either protect a person or with good enough luck nail a totally unsuspicious Wolf. Let's not overdo it, however, as by protecting a Wolf, we are sort of throwing away the tool to keep alive those players to whom we trust, which is the main point of this Guard thing. I think at least after we have just 3 Wolves it loses its sense to guard people who we think are Wolves. (Although, still we'd protect them from communicating with their packmates, but then - well, not that important in comparison to protecting somebody, I think, although it would be a nice experiment to create nice havoc among the Wolves Still, as we don't know who is the Wolf, and if we knew, we'd probably rather lynch him than protect him, I think it's a bit pointless.)

Enough of rant, anyway, conclusion from this: I am really wondering about voting to protect Lommy then, like I said already above with the same reasons. But I'll see - I'll probably be gone now for a while, but hope to post at least once to vote before the DL, and see what's up. Till then, probably...

EDIT: x-ed since Mnemo

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well, I think you are not right at least in the second thought - I mean in the one that if we have 3 or less Wolves and we Guard one of them, there will be no kill that Night. Of course there will be, from the two other remaining Wolves.

Yep, of course there will, and if you read my post again you'll see I was talking about those points in the game when we have either all 4 wolves or only 1 of them left, not what happens inbetween with three or two.
Apart from that, I pretty much agree with you.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

(unless Boro is the seer when he will deliver us all four after the first four Nights on a silver platter ).

Haha, sorry that won't be happening this time around. The lazy bums will have to do the work themselves, as I will have to do for myself.

So let's actually think about it. As Boro said, we should be ready to try things out - at least on the level of speculation I might add.

I'm getting to that soonish, but I will probably have to vote a few hours before the DL.

Boromir88- hmph, well, somehow, his flip-floppish ending makes me uneasy (sort of defending Mnemo and saying this "She's part of the family, and generally a sweet person, but you're not sure about the true nature of the activities she is up to, so I'm just keeping her at a safe distance for now", which is basically the typical "either way the wind goes, I may or may not suspect her"), but that's not enough to vote him, of course. But let's see what happens.~Legate

Not at all, merely pointing out I don't see why the plan would make Mnemo look suspicious, at first look. There are innocent intentions, and it's been well thought out. Plus the way she's defended it afterwards looks more innocent...it hasn't been a

"Hey lets get the seer to reveal and have us and the Ranger switch off proteting."

A loud "NO!" from the crowd.

Mnemo: "Oh, ok, guess I was wrong...so who's a wolf?"

She's thought it out and defended it quite well, and I don't agree with sally at all about it being cheap. Hey, we use the toys the mod-god gives us...If the wolves think it's cheap, they need to quit their whining and figure out how they want to beat it.

My only reservation is, as Kitanna said, it shouldn't absolve her. It's not like wolves can't come up with an apparently helpful, ingenius idea, only then to tell her packmates to mess it up.

Just thought I'd bring it up for discussion - what do you think?~Pitch

Hmm interesting, but I would take it more as a fortunate circumstance if it just so happens we guard a wolf. I'm going to make my decision based on either someone I would not want to see killed, or someone who I think would force the wolves hand.

Like, say we could hope to protect one of the no-trail kills, to try and force the wolves to actually kill someone who will leave a trail back to them. How it stands now though, I think I'll go with option one today, because there be still too many no-trailers for the wolves to pick off.

Edit: crossed with everyone since Pitch

[Nogrod]

Somehow I do find this a bit unsettling:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't like the speculation about the seer revealing and us and the ranger protecting him/her nonstop. As several people have said, the plan is not faultless. Secondly, if we did, it would feel unfair for the wolves to me. Sort of like cheating. (Yes, and it's me Lommy-the-ever-ordo-and-always-on-the village's-side who's saying this.) From my point of view, it would be simpler, safer and fairer not to do that (from the beginning that is - once the seer comes out it would be stupid not to do it).

Now even if Lommy has the reputation of the ultimate flip-flopper this kind of beats me.

I mean, on the other hand she says it's not a faultless plan (which it isn't) and thence it would be safer not to execute it. On the other hand she says it is unfair, even cheating, and it would be fairer not to do it.

Now whatever way you look at it you can come up with one message behind the conflicting scenarios: don't do it! And I tend to think the wolves would be the ones to face tougher choices if we did it. So...?

Also I find this follow-up interesting:

Anyhow, I don't know if I should be worried because this talk has been going on for so long. Everybody seems to agree we won't do it now, so why keep talking about it?

So let's not even discuss it? Why? For not realising it might be a good way to proceed for the village? Should we rather just rant and then vote randomly? It hardly fits your person Lommy... So why all this?

Hmm... Also pay heed to the "moral high-ground arguments" she uses - continued by Legate agreeing with Lommy (and his general reluctance on the matter):

Originally Posted by Legate

also those about "unfairness" (I was more like wondering if the Mod should not have limited this Night Guarding stuff a bit more limited rule-wise, though after thinking about it a bit - what I've been doing through writing all these posts - maybe it's not TOO strong, but still maybe a bit of a disbalance, but who knows)

It just reminds me of my family's long history in the WW where my ancestors have been keen to bring forwards moral high ground -arguments when being baddies...

Yay Pitchwife! I had forgotten that! If we protect a wolf as a village there will be only one kill! So with two "revealed" seers we'd have 50-50 chance of suffering only one kill during the Night!


EDIT: X'd from Mnemo onwards...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

About this whole seer reveal thing. While on one hand it sounds like a great way to keep the seer both alive and dreaming, it's true that so many things could go wrong. Not only could there be counter-reveals, but if we are unlucky enough to have our ranger killed overNight, then we'll definitely be in trouble.

Exactly! It is risky!

So compare that to what Lommy and Legate say about us cheating a victory or having an inbalanced game...

Makes me think Brinn quite good at this point.

[Brinniel]

Must really go now.

Legate so far seems the most sensible and reasonable and innocentish, so I'll pick him to guard:

++Legate

As for a lynch vote...much more difficult. No one stands out as suspicious to me just now so it'll have to be complete random toDay. A lot of players still haven't posted, and hopefully they will show up, but for now I will vote for someone who is not making a contribution.

++McCaber

Hopefully my participation will be better toMorrow. At least deadline will be a bit better in my new time zone..

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

++wilwarin538

No joke? I had just come across one of her posts and was thinking "I wonder if Wilwa could be a....oh look, she's got a vote!" Awkward.


And I like Pitchie's post re: guarding wolves. Could it be taken as far as this?

Say we guard Formie. (I'll use him since he's not in the game.) Saucie, Mith, and Roa are the other wolves (again, just hypothetical) but since we've guarded Formie they only get one kill. If there's only one kill and no ranger save, can't we assume that whoever we guarded the Night before is a wolf? Or am I nuts? (Or both, because I know what Mnemo would want to say to that.) With that in mind, and I'm not saying we should, but if we suspect two people a lot on a certain Day (when there are still four wolves of course) we can lynch one and guard the other, so that way we (hopefully) decrease the kills for the following Night no matter what. Sound good? Or again, am I nuts?


EDIT: x'd since....Mnemo's last, I believe

[Mnemosyne]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

No joke? I had just come across one of her posts and was thinking "I wonder if Wilwa could be a....oh look, she's got a vote!" Awkward.


And I like Pitchie's post re: guarding wolves. Could it be taken as far as this?

Say we guard Formie. (I'll use him since he's not in the game.) Saucie, Mith, and Roa are the other wolves (again, just hypothetical) but since we've guarded Formie they only get one kill. If there's only one kill and no ranger save, can't we assume that whoever we guarded the Night before is a wolf? Or am I nuts? (Or both, because I know what Mnemo would want to say to that.) With that in mind, and I'm not saying we should, but if we suspect two people a lot on a certain Day (when there are still four wolves of course) we can lynch one and guard the other, so that way we (hopefully) decrease the kills for the following Night no matter what. Sound good? Or again, am I nuts?

Depends on how much information the mod gives us. If we aren't told whether fewer kills than we expected are due to a Ranger save or due to a lack of wolvish power, then it wouldn't be that helpful to us.

[Nienna]

I think that Pitchwife brought an interesting point about guarding someone who might be a quiet wolf. I think that it might actually be a good idea and something to think about for toDay. Since it is quite hard to make any suspicions or to know enough about someone to trust them toDay we could guard someone in the hopes of getting a quiet wolf. We can and should use guarding to actually guard someone during the Night after toDay but I think that using it to try and give us some more information for toMorrow might be a good idea. Just a thought.

Edit: x-ed since 89

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Depends on how much information the mod gives us. If we aren't told whether fewer kills than we expected are due to a Ranger save or due to a lack of wolvish power, then it wouldn't be that helpful to us.

Very true. That's why I said if we know there's no ranger save.


Steve, oh high and mighty mod, would you tell us if there was a ranger save or just let us wonder? *bows, backs away humbly*

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Say we guard Formie. (I'll use him since he's not in the game.) Saucie, Mith, and Roa are the other wolves (again, just hypothetical) but since we've guarded Formie they only get one kill. If there's only one kill and no ranger save, can't we assume that whoever we guarded the Night before is a wolf? Or am I nuts?

I was about to ask that myself... I think it depends on the Mayor. Hello? Mr Mayor? Will the village be told the reason for a missed kill? Otherwise we could end up lynching an innocent.

However, I think it might be worth following Pitchwife's suggestion (of Guarding someone in the not-quite-suspicious-enough-to-lynch class), but only if nobody else looks shiningly innocent enough to be an obvious target.

EDIT:X'd since Sally at #90.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Noggy

Now even if Lommy has the reputation of the ultimate flip-flopper this kind of beats me.

I mean, on the other hand she says it's not a faultless plan (which it isn't) and thence it would be safer not to execute it. On the other hand she says it is unfair, even cheating, and it would be fairer not to do it.

Now whatever way you look at it you can come up with one message behind the conflicting scenarios: don't do it! And I tend to think the wolves would be the ones to face tougher choices if we did it. So...?

I find Nogrod's post about Lommy a bit unsettling, if truth be told. First he says that she is known as the ultimate flip-flopper and then accuses her because of flip-flopping? But what is more interesting is that what he sees as conflicting (flip-floppy) scenarios that come to have the same agenda looks to me like two different reasons for the same thing which is not flip-floppy at all.

Also, I don't like that "So...?" in the end. It looks evil. But really, it does! The sort of "I'm just dropping this idea and letting you others continue the thought, so I can't be blamed for bringing up the argument, he-he-hee." (Oh, too bad, now I'm actually imagining him behind his computer saying "he-he-hee" in a devilish voice and the image makes me giggle. I'm evidently too tired for werewolf.)


EDIT: x-ed since Brinn's vote

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I was about to ask that myself... I think it depends on the Mayor. Hello? Mr Mayor? Will the village be told the reason for a missed kill? Otherwise we could end up lynching an innocent.

However, I think it might be worth following Pitchwife's suggestion (of Guarding someone in the not-quite-suspicious-enough-to-lynch class), but only if nobody else looks shiningly innocent enough to be an obvious target.

EDIT:X'd since Sally at #90.

Fair enough, and I'd go for that too. Whether we hit target #2 (if you will) or wolf #4 (again, if you will) we still save a person's life. But if we get a wolf they can't kill anyone (or rather can only kill one person) where if we protect Sally the Insufferable Innocent (or whoever we think is clean) the wolves will just pick someone else.


Really, I'm up for anything. This whole guarding thing is super cool, man.


EDIT: x'd with greenie *glomps her*

[Boromir88]

So, Mnemo unveils her plan straight away, and has to adjust the original idea, because the Mayor said we can't Night guard the same person two nights in a row. That is how I understand the Ranger was brought into the situation.

Now lets just see what everyone's said about it...

wilwa in post 8:

This plan sounds way to good and way to easy to be true. There must be a rule against us protecting the same person that many time in a row, though I suppose if we can't then we could just alternate with the Ranger,one Night we protect Seer next Night Ranger does, and hope the the Ranger can stay alive.

which crossed with Mnemo's 7, where she brought up the ranger too. Two people who thought the same thing, something that wilwa pointed out and it appears now Mnemo didn't appreciate the comparison.

Kitanna's post 9

This seems like an ok idea, but eventually, probably sooner than later, the wolves can manipulate this. How do you plan to organize such an undertaking?

The quick dismissiveness of the post looks suspicious. I read it as "Ya, ok, whatever...but the wolves will find a way around it so no point in continuing.

Plus, it really wouldn't be difficult to organize. Seer reveals, we protect seer Night 1 (the ranger will know because who we Night guard is known) then Ranger takes seer next night. The risk is since everyone is not on the same page with the plan, it would be unwise to do it right away, for only chaos can ensue from innocents not being on the same page, add on top wolves trying to mess things up.

Kitanna in 13 too caught my attention

This may seem like a good idea, but think about the innocents who will undoubtedly be put on the line. If the seer reveals him/herself and then reveals his/her dreams every day innocents will be revealed to the village, making them easy targets for wolves at Night.

Ahh honourably trying to look out for the innocents best interest are we? Balderdash. I would happily be killed if it means the seer is not, and so should any other innocent. The seer is our best weapon, and if we can be assured that the seer is kept alive to get multiple dreams, it's worth the sacrifice.

And Inzil's 22 is why I said he was looking like a wolf to me again

What's all this talk about our Seer coming out in the open now? I can see the argument for it, but it needs some serious thought before putting it into action. Like Kitanna said, there's probably a way for the wolves to get around it.

He rather forcibly rejects the idea with what I read as a rhetorical question, but then says there is some sense to it if we give it serious thought. Then goes back to agree with Kitanna's and be just as dismissive as Kit.

Did you really think we would be foolish enough to just go full steam ahead with an unconventional plan and not talk it out before asking the seer to reveal?

I have to stop here, I thought I'd be able to cram everything in, in roughly 40 minutes, but can't. I'll finish with the rest of the reactions to Mnemo's plan, when I get back, and then vote.

Edit: crossed since sally's post 90

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

A lot of players still haven't posted, and hopefully they will show up, but for now I will vote for someone who is not making a contribution.

I have a premonition our apothecary will be foaming at the mouth when he hears this - and honestly, I don't like it either. Much too easy.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Pitchie (can I call you that? Pitchwife is much too long for me)

I have a premonition our apothecary will be foaming at the mouth when he hears this - and honestly, I don't like it either. Much too easy.

True, it's an easy vote, but I rather prefer that to voting randomly (like Kit threatened to do) or voting for themselves just because that's what they always do (like Nilp). There are many ways of making an easy vote on Day 1, but voting for someone for not contributing is, I think, among the least questionable. Though that, too, is efficient (no attention, no suspicion, looks good etc) for a wolf, being keen on eliminating the ones that don't talk at all is something an innocent would be keen on - the quiet, after all, are something an ordinary villager can't figure out.

[Pitchwife]

You may call me Pitchie, or Pitch, and I'll call you Greenie, ok?
I know the question of voting non-talkers has been widely discussed in other villages before, and I've somewhat changed my mind about it myself. I just don't think it quite fair to condemn somebody in their absence, and those who haven't talked toDay may do so toMorrow, or if they don't, we can leave it to the Mayor to deal with them.

[satansaloser2005]

For now.

++Guard Mnemo


I'll think about my lynch vote for now, but I think Mnemo is innocent and I like having someone on my side who looks at things from a different point of view (e.g. the seer reveal thing).


I'm thinking of Wilwa for a possible vote but that was a "whoa, look!" type thing, so I might change my mind, especially if someone else catches my attention.


I'll do a vote count now, savvy?

[A Little Green]

A sidenote: I hate Day 1s in large villages like this one because there are just too many people to look at and it's all a confusion trying to remember who said what and to even pay attention to everyone. Maybe I'll make a list at some point, though I bet it'll be a waste of space given how little I have to say at the moment.

Originally Posted by Leggings

A Little Green- for some reason, she made me wonder with her mid-day chat, as I thought her intention was to have just some chat, but then she asks Nilp "why did you vote yourself?" which looked like a serious question, although completely vain by nature (knowing Nilp). But nothing much more to go on with.

Ah well, the mid-day chats are something of a speciality of mine - as I'm someone who rather discusses with people than makes long and substantial posts by herself, and I'm often around near mid-day (my time) when there is seldom any discussion going on, I like grasping whoever there is and discuss matters with them. This time it happened to be Nilp, so I asked him about that suicidal vote. But, like I found out, it wasn't much use. But just to clarify, when I want to have a mid-day chat with someone I'm often after a rather more serious contribution than some random chit-chat (like the one I ended up having with Nilp. But really, how can one have a serious discussion with that one?)


EDIT: x-ed with Pitchie and Sally

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo



My head, it pounds. I really do need to get off for a while and do some housework if nothing else. Leave some (but not lots? meh) for me to read when I get back in an hour or so.

[Pitchwife]

Legate, when you come back, would you mind explaining the reasoning behind your Guarding suggestions (Nerwen and Lommy)? I agree that Nerwen's been rather reasonable in her few posts, Lommy slightly less so from my perspective; I certainly don't grudge either of them the protection, but what exactly makes them stand out from others who have talked as much? (Not meaning myself - I'm just an ordo, no use Guarding me.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

*foams at the mouth*

Now that that's out of the way...

I think Legate and Lommy look odd and I think Mnemo's lack of explanation of her wilwa vote seems fishy.

Regarding her plan, though, I think it's a good one, and if we do decide to execute it today (which, although probably not going to occur, I am not against), we'd have a protected Seer from the beginning, which is no small occurrence... especially with the recent wolfish (and innocent) track record of killing the Seer day/night 1 (I think it's been three games in a row now, right?)

Anyway, vote soonish, I have a lot going on today (hi Brinn.)

[Nerwen]

Well, I have to vote now– and alas! I have no time to sing you a farewell song!

Guard:

++Legate

Likely to be a target if innocent; at the same time, he's making me slightly uneasy for some reason I can't put my finger on. So, I think he's a good choice however you look at it.

Lynch:

++Kitanna

Reason: apparent jittery reaction to Mnemo's plan. All her points are fine, understand, but again there is something that doesn't sit quite right with me.

This is just the usual weak Day One reason for voting: I don't have a proper case against Kit, or anyone.

I mean, I could have voted Wilwa for the same thing, but I'm not ready to jump on Mnemo's vote, when she never gave a reason.
EDIT: X'd since Sally.

[Pitchwife]

Time to start thinking about my own vote. Up to now, those whose contributions I like best are (in alphabetical order, not in order of preference) Boro, Mnemo and Nog; all of them have produced well-reasoned arguments, and I think we should definitely keep them around, so I'll probably vote to Guard one of them. I'd like to include Legate, but I'm with Nerwen here - something about him doesn't feel quite sound; I'll need to hear from and think about him some more. I'm starting to like Nerwen herself quite well, too, though she hasn't yet impressed me quite as much as those mentioned above - which may just be because her style is less openly controversial.

Picking a lynch candidate will be much more difficult. At the moment, Kitanna does look most fishy, for reasons given by Boro (#97) and, again, Nerwen (#106).
Others:
Brinn - don't like her vote, but otherwise she looks ok;
Lommy - good point by Nogrod in #87 (about her switching arguments and the moral high ground);
Sally - what Nog said about Lommy also applies to her #77; otherwise she's been very active and doesn't look really bad; I like the reason she gave for her Guard vote.
wilwa - not sure; I'd like to hear Mnemo explain where her vote for wilwa comes from; her interaction with Mnemo could be a wolf grabbing a controversial topic as a chance to stir discord, could be innocent.
Haven't really formed an opinion about Greenie, Inzil, Nienna, Shasta (of those who've talked at all).

[Nogrod]

I might join this "guard Legate" bandwagon just to remove one kill from the coming Night... or then saving a misguided innocent who'd try a bit better toMorrow (or later toDay).

I mean really, I was not sure I belived what I saw when I was looking at his first postings toDay. An intelligent guy like him talking against the revealment-plan from totally weird angles that had nothing to do with the reality we're facing. To be honest it looked like "let's torpedo this plan with whatever I can come up with" - and failing...

Not surprisingly I found the same agenda from Lommy's posting while Legate then went on saying he trusted her the most as the protegee for toNight... It just fits too well... to be true.

Anyway and all in all, that is not probably enough for me to vote either of them as losing one of them as an innocent on Day1 would be bad and that kind of teamwork would be too open even for them. But if I die soon I can at least say "I told you so" later.

I'll be back in a short while with some more general thoughts about our situation as how I see it.

EDIT: X'd with "Pitchie"

[Kitanna]

I don't have the time toDay to read everything I've missed. But my guard vote won't be totally random. I was going to vote to guard Mnemo, but since she stirred up a lot of discussion she doesn't seem a likely Night 2 kill. Rather I'd like to guard one of those who haven't spoken yet. These sorts are usually kills early on because they leave no trail for the villagers. So that leaves Hakon and alonariel as the only two who have yet to say anything.

++Guard Hakon

alonariel gave a reason for being absent, but Hakon has said nothing.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So we should reward him?

Anyway, I have to vote now. Thought about voting Mnemo, but that seemed too much like penalizing her for an original thought, so I'm going to

++Lommy

and

++Legate.

[McCaber]

All right, all right. I'll get up. You topsiders have no consideration for some people's schedules.

So my thoughts on the day this far: Dang, there are a lot of people. It's going to be touch and go for a while, what with these two kills a night business. But hopefully we can pull off a protect choice that limits the wolves.

Although we shouldn't be hasty to lynch someone we protected if there's only one kill. That seems to be a very easy way for the pack to manipulate the village. Granted, it would only work one time at most, but it could still backfire horribly.

[Boromir88]

Continuing then...as a matter of aside, I really hate financial advising appointments. I mean really is it necessary to take hours to only learn you have no money?

Nienna in 28

I have no real thoughts on the day except that Mnemo's suggestion worries me. Gifteds revealing this early is never a good idea. Maybe in a few days or when we are getting desperate but not on Day One.

This looks innocent, disagrees and notes the risk of it. Plus her other post today (#92) looks good too, I just wish Nienna would step out more. You've got a smart mind, have some confidence and trust it.

So we reach Legate in #33, I think this was before the post where Nogrod points to taking a moral high-ground. Others have already brought up that the Ranger wouldn't have to reveal, but I want to look at this (bold my emphasis)...

I would not really be so hasty," he interfered, knocking the trunk of a nearby tree, "with all this talk about revelations. It is a good idea by itself, but it all depends just on good luck. Even if all worked well, if the Seer catches no Wolf in some three consequent days (see below), he or she may as well die without being of much of a real use.

What? The seer is no real use unless xe catches wolves? When did the idea that the seer needs to do our work for us happen? Ok, maybe that's rhetorical because it is always nice when the seer says "here's your wolves people." But how often does that really happen?

Most of the wolf-lynchings that happen are done by our own work and sweat, and a sprinkle of good fortune. Any information a seer gives is valuable, whether the seer knows wolves or not. Known innocents may become a night target, but it also limits the unknown number, thus increasing our chances to lynch a wolf during the day. Sorry, saying the seer would be no use unless the seer has a wolf is just wrong.

Greenie in 36:

I agree with Nienna and Nerwen and Legate and who not that it would be more of a risk than a gain to reveal the Seer this early, even with the Night Guard thing. (Read Legate's post for my train of thoughts, for he put it far clearer than I could have. ) Actually I'm feeling a bit worried about Mnemo at the moment - or rather, wondering whether I should be. It just popped into my mind that a wolf might like to try and get the Seer out in the open as soon as possible.

Possibly, but would you say a wolf would continue to defend the idea, and argue for it, even after many people expressed their disagreements with it?

And that's about all I feel like commenting on, or what hasn't been said/who hasn't been pointed out. For, I concur with Nogrod about Lommy objecting because it would be unfair to the wolves. Although, sally hints at the same thing, and I really don't find her suspicious. I just wish ye both would get out of your heads that we have to play nicely with the wolves. Of course there are always certain things off limit, as meta-gaming reasons, but look these are the weapons we've been given to work with...let's try to use them. Don't do the wolves work for them, let them figure out how they want to beat whatever plans we come up with.

Edit: crossed with Kit and on.

[Pitchwife]

Kit, just when I've reluctantly decided you're my prime suspect, you have to say something I can see sense in (even if I don't agree)!*sigh*
You forgot McCaber, by the way. (Cancel that - he just showed up.)

Nog, while I agree that Legate seems to have missed some points in his early posts, which of his angles do you find blatantly weird and out of touch with reality? Asking because it might help me to clarify my own impression of him.

EDIT: x-ed with Boro; applause, applause!
And sorry for forgetting Nilp in my earlier list, but he seems to be just in character, both in- and meta-gamewise, so nothing to go on.

[Nienna]

I have absolutely no idea who to vote for for either the guard or the lynch.

We are down to 2 hours before deadline I believe.

I'm going to go back through and see if I can dig up anything. No one is really setting off my radar or screaming wolf at me. Mnemo's plan was a little out there but it would be a really risky wolf move and I don't know if she is a risky wolf or not.

Edit: x-ed since Shasta

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)



I don't agree with Kit's reasoning for guarding Hakon. If she's innocent, it's not the best strategy (in my opinion it's better to protect people who aren't simply MIA, though I'm sure Hakon has a reason) although she does have a point about tendencies in wolf kills. (I actually guarded Mnemo because I know how unpredictable wolves can be if they like, so I don't put anything past anyone.) If she (Kit, that is) is guilty, however, there's a couple explanations.

It could be a throwaway on a packmate, thinking no one will follow her and so Hakon's activity won't get blocked. Dangerous, but you never know.
It could be a throwaway on an innocent, thinking no one will follow her and someone will believe the above. Makes a bit of sense to me, actually.
It could be an attempt to divert votes from a packmate (Legate?) so her furry friend(s) can kill at full capacity. Makes a lot of sense, but may be too obvious.
It could be an attempt to divert votes from someone she would like to kill toNight, a hope of getting people to vote Hakon so they don't try to protect X/Y. Also makes sense but wolves are flexible if they have to be so I don't like this one quite as much.
(By the same token maybe she thinks people will try to protect someone who's not been guard voted yet but who she thinks would be a usual choice. This theory could work for either of the last two.)

The thing is the I don't think a wolf Kit would guard a wolf Hakon and intend for him to actually be guarded; you can do your own maths on that one. So if Kit turns out to be a wolf down the line I'm going to say that either she's being tricksy or Hakon's innocent.

Need a drink (because you totally care, of course!) and to do some laundry. Back in a while.


EDIT: x'd since Shasta's vote

[Kitanna]

I have about seven minutes to get back to work.

I've been mulling over the thread, trying to find something/someone who jumps out.

Mnemo and Wilwa both jumped out initially, but neither one feels particularly wicked. Of other, more vocal players, no one has said anything of note that I find over whelming suspicious. The only things I've seen that worried me are Mnemo's vote for Wilwa, but I think that's probably a time constraint thing, and then there's Brinn's vote for McCaber. She stated her vote would be somewhat random, but it surprises me she would pick someone who hadn't yet posted.

But I'm down to the wire and have to vote now. I will be more active on Day 2 because work doesn't fall on the deadline that day.

++Brinn

Kinda random, I don't care that she voted randomly for McCaber. That's something I would do, but she gave a reason that "he wasn't contributing" and that doesn't seem right to me. Granted my own reasons for voting Brinn aren't much better. However, I am at a loss for a real suspect.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by McCaber

All right, all right. I'll get up. You topsiders have no consideration for some people's schedules.

So my thoughts on the day this far: Dang, there are a lot of people. It's going to be touch and go for a while, what with these two kills a night business. But hopefully we can pull off a protect choice that limits the wolves.

Although we shouldn't be hasty to lynch someone we protected if there's only one kill. That seems to be a very easy way for the pack to manipulate the village. Granted, it would only work one time at most, but it could still backfire horribly.

Very good point, sir McCobbler. For instance, the wolves could send in only one kill on a particular Night to make us lynch someone they suspect as a gifted.

For example:
Formie, Saucie, Roa, and Mith are wolves. They think Agan is the seer, so they go along with a 'guard Agan' bandwagon and the following Night send in only one kill. Poof! Instant Agan lynch, more or less.

I'm not saying the theory isn't flawed, because it certainly is. I just think that in certain circumstances it would be worth the risk. (For instance, if it was rather later in the game and we still had all four wolves I'd be willing to perhaps base a wolf case off it, and ties between guarded suspects may help in that situation. Horribly explained this bit, but it makes sense in my head, I swear.) I'm by no means suggesting we protect the people we find the most suspicious every Day, but it may prove informational at some point.

[Boromir88]

What's the reasoning behind Legate being someone we should guard again? Sorry, just not getting it.

[Nogrod]

Just to avoid any false attacks by the wolves I'll open with this statement I (and many others) have already made: the seer is solely responsible for her/his choices. What we others can and should do is to give her/him some food for thought to base / help her/his decisions on. There are so many voices around here... for good and for evil.


But how I see this is the following.

Premise 1.
Having a continuos protection for the seer from Day1 on would be absolutely great for us - and absolutely horrible for the wolves.

Premise 2.
The plan is not "certain". For...

2.1.
We can only protect the seer every Night as long as the ranger lives.

2.2.
The wolves can "counter-reveal" making it hard for us to choose between the two.

2.3.
As it is said that there are some secret roles, there is a possibility one of them might spoil the plan (although there is no cobbler which would have ruined the plan from the very beginning).

Premise 3.
Every villager hopes for the best of the village according to their understanding of the situation. The wolves need to consider whether to try openly to contest the best of the village trying to steer the opinions towards their favour or whether to go along with it to look good.

3.1.
It's not always self-evident what is for the best of the village - especially with some new rules / set-ups for the game.

3.2.
Intelligent wolves can make the difference and make the villagers to act against the good of the village despite their good intentions.

Postulate to 3.
We need to discuss it so that as many as possible would have as much information possible of the different views to form their own ideas about the best for the village.


Blah... it was fun as long as I had energy to continue... but it starts to feel like a bit too work-a-holic -way of doing this.

So I'll just make my "deductions" from these premises in a fairly normal post in a short while...


EDIT: Oh my! Since when you all started to post?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

Possibly, but would you say a wolf would continue to defend the idea, and argue for it, even after many people expressed their disagreements with it?

Probably not, I agree, and I'm feeling ok about Mnemo at the moment, but at that moment she hadn't defended her idea that much.

I'll vote soon and be off to bed. I don't have much on anyone except Nog, to be honest, dunno why since he hasn't been the most vocal toDay or anything, he just keeps saying stuff that rubs me the wrong way. Like this:

Originally Posted by Nog

An intelligent guy like him talking against the revealment-plan from totally weird angles that had nothing to do with the reality we're facing. To be honest it looked like "let's torpedo this plan with whatever I can come up with" - and failing...

I don't like the way he mixes intelligence and opinion - like, if someone has an opinion that differs from his own it means the person is not behaving according to his/her level of intelligence and is therefore playing more stupid than s/he actually is ergo is suspicious. A lack of tolerance for differing opinions isn't something an ordo can afford, and that is why Nog's argument makes me think he might be one of our baddies.

Am I sure of his being a wolf? No I'm not. BUT I'm more suspicious of him than I believe I've ever been of anyone on Day1. So, unless miracles happen, I'll lynch-vote Nogrod toDay. I haven't given much thought to my guard-vote as yet.


EDIT: x-ed with Sally, Boro and Noggers