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06-02-2015, 01:06 PM | #81 | |
Beloved Shadow
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the phantom has posted.
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06-02-2015, 01:06 PM | #82 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Anybody who is suggesting an ordo self-sacrifice toDay (Nilp? Phantom? Lottie?) fie on you. With this many wolves, we simply can't throw away chances at lynching them, or innocents who will count in the final tally.
With a 25% chance of getting a wolf now, I say we follow our instincts and vote for someone who is giving off wolf-vibes. We're an experienced group of players - if we're careful, we can avoid the Day 1 traps of confusing "weird" or "seerish" with "wolfy". I, at least, intend to try. Mac, you mentioned the odds of a wolf-lynch being the worst on Day 1, but if I recall correctly, they were still better than pure chance would give. That said, I like much of Phantom's post #34. I'm all for a plan that lets us use the extra vote to gain not one, but two additional pieces of information. It also doesn't require much vote-coordination (something I am usually against in principle), only that we agree to an early deadline for the living vote and then designate, after voting, who signifies the last lynchee was guilty or innocent, among the voters for the two biggest wagons. Yes, if there's more than a 1 vote discrepancy the dead won't change the outcome, but knowing their opinion of the runner-up is still desirable. As for baddies swaying the dead thread, it's unlikely they'll have the numbers there, and if they do, we're doing well. If it comes to that, we do still have the resurrecting roles to inform us of the situation. But yeah, until the dead thread has three denizens, I intend to play old-fashioned WW and vote at the deadline for someone who seems hairy and/or a little too interested in biting people. Edit: X'd with Nog and phantom. |
06-02-2015, 01:15 PM | #83 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Btw. how about we send the phantom into the Dead Thread as our first move? If he is innocent he is a great asset organizing things for us there - and there people could check his alignment (unlike here) so everyone would know whether to trust his ideas or not. It would be a win-win -situation.
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06-02-2015, 01:16 PM | #84 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Sorry for being such a pessimist by the way, I think I might be channelling Lommy... EDIT: x-ed with Noggins
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06-02-2015, 01:19 PM | #85 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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06-02-2015, 01:21 PM | #86 |
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
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Alright, I dug it up...
Grimoire thread, post #190
Chances of lynching wolves, based on the first 31 games played: Day 1: 29% (sample size: 34) Day 2: 31% (36) Day 3: 43% (40) Day 4: 35% (34) Day 5: 34% (29) Day 6: 29% (17) Day 7: 55% (11) Day 8: 0% (3) All better than the random 25% we have, and it looks even better considering that most villages have a smaller wolf ratio than ours. Now I'm itching to turn these into confidence intervals. But the sample sizes are small, so the result would probably not be very good. Maybe if I compiled it for all games played, but do I really want to do that? Last edited by Macalaure; 06-02-2015 at 01:24 PM. Reason: punktshooayshun |
06-02-2015, 01:23 PM | #87 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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We can't trust the Dead help us - or that we understand unanimously how they're doing it if they do. These are two different games after all - just bound togehter - and we shouldn't try to play the other one here or lay our hopes in the other game to play ours.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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06-02-2015, 01:29 PM | #88 |
Dead Serious
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Dear me, if this is when I show up most days, I shall be avalanched trying to keep up with things... whatever possessed me to think I had the analytical stamina to get back into this horrid sport?
Getting down to business, my mostly-likely-forgotten antipathy towards Days 1 is not returning with its usual force, because even if there's not actually any useful information we can use NOW for voting, at least the convoluted dynamics of the game require such thorough examination that we can do something productive. On that note, I haven't been able to sufficiently wrap my head around the ramifications of communicating with the Dead Thread (this being my first Dead Thread game) to have anything intelligent occur to me to say, but I do like the idea of a tied-vote/no-lynchings being our plan for today. For one, this fits nicely with my feeling that Day 1s are useless information for lynching until there's some benefit of hindsight. For another, although 1-in-4 is a reasonably good chance of hitting on a wolf, it's still not as good as the 3-in-4 chance of missing one altogether. As far as that goes, I'm among those willing to be one of the two lynch victims--but that's a rather paltry sacrifice to make, since I make it in the hopes that we'll tie it up and I won't die--but if there *IS* someone out there who wants to upset the apple-cart and kill off one of the two tied victims (thus revealing in all probability his/her own lycanthropy), at least I'd die in a lynch straightforward enough to have actually been of service to the village.
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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06-02-2015, 01:32 PM | #89 |
Beloved Shadow
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I'll be an asset to whatever thread I'm in, Noggie. If you really want me in the Dead thread...
Hey Wolves. Kill me tonight. Ranger. Do not protect me. There. We'll see if that works. But no, I'm not going to volunteer for lynching. Totally pointless. If we're not going to purposefully tie the vote then we need to at least take a shot at a Wolf.
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06-02-2015, 01:37 PM | #90 | ||
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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His ideas seem pretty sound at this point, though, whatever he is. Quote:
The only way to have a majority of allied wolves in the dead thread is either on Night 3 with great luck (two dead wolves and a ranger save within two days), or because one pack is completely dead. The former is a situation that wouldn't persist for long, and the latter will be obvious because of the one night kill. If wolves of two separate packs make up the majority of the dead thread (say, 4 wolves and 3 innocents?) they'll be gunning for the remaining living member of the other pack, anyway, as best they can. |
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06-02-2015, 01:42 PM | #91 |
Beloved Shadow
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And just so you know, I'm operating under the assumption that any Wolf would be desperate to kill me in case I'm in the opposing pack.
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06-02-2015, 01:42 PM | #92 | |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Actually I think ours might even be the usual ratio. The average game I remember is something like 16 players, 4 wolves or 12 players, 3 wolves. Still, slightly better than chance. It is known! |
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06-02-2015, 01:49 PM | #93 |
Odinic Wanderer
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So we are not going for a tied non-lynch today?
But rather we are going to at least attempt to get a baddie? What a splendid idea! We all know what an incredible success rate we have on day 1, and obviously a well meaning effort always gets rewarded. Since when did sincerity become an excuse for failure? ehm... I guess what I am trying to say, is that I still quite fancy that non-lynch thingy. Also I will have to vote quite soon. |
06-02-2015, 01:53 PM | #94 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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06-02-2015, 01:53 PM | #95 | |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,647
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The more I've thought about it I don't like the tied voting because it would give to much ability to be manipulated by a small minority of the people to their advantage.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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06-02-2015, 01:54 PM | #96 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I know. But an asset on whose side?
So if you the phantom are a wolf we’d make Werewolf history suitable for the anniversary game by lynching a wolf-phantom on Day1! If on the other hand you're not a wolf, we’d give you a chance to shine as the organizer of the innocent triumph from the Dead Thread coming up with plots and schemes totally outplaying the baddies. In the Dead Thread we / they could be sure of your alignment though - and that's an asset over an asset. Premature thoughs on toDays's vote. If we had a good candidate for lycantrophy I would like to try lynching the most probable wolf first - altohugh I have no good candidates at least for the time being. That's the way this game is won - by lynching the wolves. And that's the fun / point of the game, to try and find the wolves. I do not like the "let's not lynch anyone toDay" -meme (backed by the idea that we might lynch our Seer who is very important in this game) as the chances of lynching our seer are minuscule compared to any normal game and there are such loads of wolves around - and if we were to lynch the seer s/he could act on it before things get nasty thus at least securing another two dreams the next Night when the Ranger covered it for her/him... There 24 players of which 1 is the Seer. The chances of hitting the Seer on D1 lynching = 1/24. THere are 3+3 wolves in this game. The chances of getting a wolf on D1 lynching = 6/24 = 1/4. And add to that the practical stats we've just seen (a village is slightly better than random in picking up the villains), so yeah. Let's try and hunt a wolf toDay. Quote:
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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06-02-2015, 01:59 PM | #97 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Love you! There are times when I'm extremely proud to be related to this young woman.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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06-02-2015, 02:03 PM | #98 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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EDIT: x-ed with Nog - well, somebody taught me well.
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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06-02-2015, 02:04 PM | #99 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Where b) leads back to an enhanced a).
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
06-02-2015, 02:05 PM | #100 | |
Dead Serious
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So even if past games had a bearing on the chances of this game, we're still in a situation where past frequency predicts that we're better-than-70% likely to lynch an Ordo on Day, leaving me firmly in the camp of preferring that we not lynch anyone at all on Day 1. The only exception to that would be if someone could correlate the frequency of lynching a Wolf on Day 1 to the likelihood of lynching a wolf on Day 2 (and 3, 4, etc). If, for example, lynching a wolf on Day 1 meant a 50% or greater chance of lynching a wolf on Day 2 vs. lynching an ordo on Day 1 meaning a less-than-50% chance of lynching a wolf on day 2, then there would probably be arguments to be made--but my own training in Statistics reaches no further than the ability to say that 25% chance of getting a wolf is the same as a 75% chance of getting an ordo. Now, even with this preference for not lynching anyone, I realise that lynching someone today, at the very least, gives us SOME useful information to analyse tomorrow. What I'm not sure about yet is whether or not it's more useful to have that information or more useful to have that extra Innocent vote. EDIT: X-ed with all posts since Morm #95.
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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06-02-2015, 02:07 PM | #101 |
Odinic Wanderer
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As admirable as the Iron Kingdom and its thinkers was, I am not sure Kant was aware of a world outside Königsberg or even his own mind. In other words: Kant is annoying, don't ever mention him again. Max Weber on the other hand...
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06-02-2015, 02:07 PM | #102 | |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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06-02-2015, 02:09 PM | #103 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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This has been a rather active first day, hasn't it? I bet Kuru has been spying on us this entire time and cackling madly to himself.
I'll be back shortly - just off work, legs hurt, need a shower, etc.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
06-02-2015, 02:18 PM | #104 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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So Form, do you suggest we'd let the baddies kill each other first and not try lynching any of them? Just sit back as sacrificial lambs and wait whether they kill us all or whether they happen to kill each other first, or whether our gifteds save the day or tell us what to do?
Playing this game kind of means we villagers play it as well - and not only those who have roles will play it.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
06-02-2015, 02:19 PM | #105 | |
Odinic Wanderer
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You want people to use intuition to vote intelligently? Is there any meaningful way in which using your intuition, differentiates from reacting to erratic behaviour? |
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06-02-2015, 02:21 PM | #106 | |
Odinic Wanderer
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06-02-2015, 02:33 PM | #107 | |
Dead Serious
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What I'm trying to say is that, unlike the villagers, the wolves HAVE to kill someone toNight. In the normal course of events, where the village lynches someone on Day 1, you could say that the village makes the first move (and 71% of the time, or thereabouts, we get it wrong). By causing Day 1 to be a no-lynch day, we force the wolves to make the first move. And, in a way, this is the way the game SHOULD be played: the narrative of each game uses the Moderator as a first victim of the wolves, to whose death the village reacts by trying to lynch the werewolves. In PRACTICE, however, the actual participation of the players starts with Day 1--in a real world, if werewolves started killing people in a closed community, we'd have a history of interaction with our neighbours on which to base our lynchings; in the game world, we have nothing but a Day 1 that precedes any actual choices made by the Wolves. The death of the moderator is presented as a fait accompli and we have to try and analyze the actions of people who never actually made any decision to kill that person. I suppose this is sounding more like a defence for my dislike of Days 1 than anything else, but I think there's a nugget of truth here. The record bears out that Day 1 lynchings get it wrong significantly more than they get it right (better than 2 innocent deaths on Day 1 for every successful wolf-kill). Restoring the natural order of things, where the wolves HAVE to act first means that tomorrow, in what would then be a REAL Day 1-after-wolf-killings, would remove the red herrings of trying to ferret out whose was an ordo, who was a gifted, and who was a wolf in the original lynching. After all, on Day 1 it could be entirely a list of ordos who lynches an ordo. Or it could be the Seer, Ranger, Hunter, and Loves who cast those votes. My point is that we don't KNOW who will have anyone killed today, but we absolutely will know that the wolves kill whoever is killed at night toNight.
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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06-02-2015, 02:39 PM | #108 |
Odinic Wanderer
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Sorry for the triple post
I apologise for the successive posts.
I do really have to leave, and so will have to vote. I can either vote Formendacil, since he volunteered, or I could vote for Greenie, since I do not care for the buddying up her and Nog is doing (also she mentioned Kant). ++Formendacil Yup... I don't want to see Form gone, and I would be deeply saddened if this lead to his demise. Though I spoke ill about Greenie, I would hardly say that her actions merits the label "suspicious", "annoying" would be more fitting. Last edited by Rune Son of Bjarne; 06-02-2015 at 02:40 PM. Reason: Cross posted with Formendacil |
06-02-2015, 02:46 PM | #109 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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Gah, 4:30 am.
Well, at least the 'nap' worked.
I wasn't planning to post at all, was just reading up on my mobile while trying to recapture sleepiness (bad idea), but some people haven't really caught up to the true implication of the three-party dynamic here. Maybe because I spent the first few days after joining pondering on the metagame of this specific village (before being captured by work, my other work, my other-other work, and Kousaka Reina, you beauty, you. Oh, and some piano/violin cartoon thing.) Have only caught up to Form's (Hi! ) post 88, so if this has already been addressed... you'd ignore or misrepresent me, anyway, so who cares. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ So... Even if the Dead thread does gain a Baddie majority, it is highly likely it's a disparate majority. Again, there are two Wolf Packs. They don't like each other. They don't know each other, except through the mechanism of the Dead thread's NIGHT vote or Seer dreams. They're as interested as us Goodies to find out about Wolves, because all the information they have access to is the knowledge of the roles of two other people (their Packmates). If one Wolf Pack does gain a majority in the Dead thread, then we'd be well on our way (if not already there) to getting just one kill per NIGHT. I think that's a good thing, yes? That is all.
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
Last edited by Nilpaurion Felagund; 06-11-2015 at 11:11 AM. Reason: Apparently, the second link is wrong. Not that anyone cares... |
06-02-2015, 02:49 PM | #110 | ||||
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
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Yeeah, I expected the interval to be terrible, but not this terrible. Form has a point. Regardless. The day is a time for lynching, void of scruple or remorse. I will not abstain. Quote:
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Sorry, had to. Ok, enough of this. The next time I post I will actually put down something substantial. Or at least I'll try. edit: shaking my head at the forum's auto-censoring |
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06-02-2015, 02:49 PM | #111 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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EDIT: x-ed with Nilp and Mac
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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06-02-2015, 02:52 PM | #112 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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06-02-2015, 02:52 PM | #113 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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Well...
So mistress Rikae has already addressed the exact same points I have in post 90, just in a more succinct and understandable manner.
I should be going back to sleep, I guess.
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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06-02-2015, 02:54 PM | #114 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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It's statistics. Many linguists have died trying to translate it into human speech.
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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06-02-2015, 02:59 PM | #115 |
Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,455
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I don't think there has been much discussion of the wildcard role. Obviously it is hard to discuss an undescribed role but it is a known unknown, as Donald Rumsfeld would say, something we know we don't know. It holds strange powers some of which might well stuff up cleverclogs voting systems.
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06-02-2015, 03:10 PM | #116 | |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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Code:
Hidden role is neutral? Wizard or Beorning? Cursed villager?
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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06-02-2015, 03:13 PM | #117 | |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
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So enough with all this numerical babbling for a moment - who do we like the look of? Personally, I'm always inclined to vote for very many of you, just because - certainly Lommy, Shasta, Nilp and Boro are never wasted lynches, if you ask me.
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06-02-2015, 03:21 PM | #118 | |
Beloved Shadow
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Basically I'm afraid of speculating because anything we choose to do could be the exact wrong thing to do because of some MR factor we didn't know about. So unless someone has something to go on maybe we should ignore the presence of the MR until such time as something weird happens.
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06-02-2015, 03:23 PM | #119 | |||
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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I'd encourage everyone to avoid voting people who always look suspicious, often get lynched on Day 1, etc. for now, for that reason. That's just good general Day 1 strategy and it applies to this game, too. Some people are known for false-positive wolf vibes early on. Anyway, arguing over general werewolfing-theory like this is probably wasting everyone's time. The real question is, wherever that 29% chance comes from - intuition, reasoning, the will of the gods - do we take it or not. As Nog (I think?) pointed out that our odds of getting a wolf (even based on chance alone) are better, and odds of getting a seer are smaller, than the wolves' odds of doing so. Quote:
(Of course if you know ASOIAF, whenever people say "it is known", it usually isn't!) However, you'll note the chance of lynching an innocent is higher than the chance of lynching a wolf, historically, until Day 7. Also, the odds on all the days before 7 fall into the confidence interval, meaning the odds might not even improve as the game goes on. Like Greenie said, it's a feature of the entire game. |
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06-02-2015, 03:25 PM | #120 | |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
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Out went the candle, and we were left darkling |
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