Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Loslote

In the light of the new Day, one free of the clouds of despair, this does strike me as suspicious - why would you immediately balk at the idea that the Herbalist and the village should plot together unless that makes your job, as a wolf, that much harder? This kind of plan makes it almost impossible for wolves to false reveal as afflicted by the black breath, which makes it much, much more difficult for the wolves' kills to stick. I wouldn't be surprised if this was Kuruwolf panicking a little when he realized how much harder the game would be if we did implement that kind of plan in the event of a false reveal.

Edit: xed with Kuru and with our dear moddess

Simple, I was concerned yesterday with the wolves being able to vote together as a block to direct treatment away from ailing ordos, thereby whittling down our numbers to reach their target on DAY SIX. I didn't want to mention it yesterDAY on the off chance that the wolves wouldn't be able to think of it in time.

I also thought that yesterDAY the Herbalist probably already had enough to go on, and as it turned out I was right.

Now, over the past NIGHT I have had a re-think and to some extent I have kind of changed my mind on the matter. At the very least we should discuss the possibilities further.

However, I think it more important at the moment to state my belief that people who have the Black Breath must indicate so. Otherwise there could potentially be ambiguity as far as lynches vs. Black Breath deaths and that is something the Ward must avoid. We need as many threads to follow here as possible.

Now, this obviously opens the door for imposters, but I think we have a good Herbalist in our midst and the rest of us can certainly weigh in on who we think is more trustworthy.

And also, imposterdom bears great risks for the wolves as well.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Simple, I was concerned yesterday with the wolves being able to vote together as a block to direct treatment away from ailing ordos, thereby whittling down our numbers to reach their target on DAY SIX. I didn't want to mention it yesterDAY on the off chance that the wolves wouldn't be able to think of it in time.

Oh, actually, that makes a lot more sense. I had meant that we would only tell the Herbalist what to do in the case that we had two competing reveals - namely, we would tell the Herbalist which of the two reveals to protect, so that we could learn the roles of both. I didn't mean that we would tell the Herbalist what to do if we didn't have competing reveals, and I can see how you wouldn't have liked that suggestion.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Oh, actually, that makes a lot more sense. I had meant that we would only tell the Herbalist what to do in the case that we had two competing reveals - namely, we would tell the Herbalist which of the two reveals to protect, so that we could learn the roles of both. I didn't mean that we would tell the Herbalist what to do if we didn't have competing reveals, and I can see how you wouldn't have liked that suggestion.

Well, I'm still not totally sold on the idea. We need to talk about the potential hiccups a bit more before implementing.

I also want to hasten to add before I must step away from the computer for some time my belief that the Herbalist's identity must stay as close to an absolute secret as possible. No hints, no nothing. Not unless things are just absolutely desperate.

I realize that may seem counter-intuitive to the overall drive for maximizing our information, and I will admit that to some extent it is, but I believe that survival of the maximum number of Ward inmates is critical to our success and the Herbalist has the most power in preventing deaths.

[Nerwen]

"Woe! Woe!" Nerwen staggered from her house. "Night Two, woe!"

She stumbled over her wilted flower bed and shook herself awake. "Sorry, I was having a terrible nightmare about a terrible night mare- Night Two, Day One's mate. A great black equine monster, like the very steeds of the Nazgul (before they took to the air I mean), galloping off to Mordor with me helpless on her back! I know it was just a dream, but even in daylight, the horror of it clings to me like a shroud."

Nerwen covered her face with her shaking hands. "Whatever will become of us? It all seems so hopeless..."

[Nerwen]

Am I still alone in my redoubled misery? Has even he whom I love forsaken me? AAAIIIEEEE! Alone! All, all aloooone!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Well, I'm still not totally sold on the idea. We need to talk about the potential hiccups a bit more before implementing.

I also want to hasten to add before I must step away from the computer for some time my belief that the Herbalist's identity must stay as close to an absolute secret as possible. No hints, no nothing. Not unless things are just absolutely desperate.

I realize that may seem counter-intuitive to the overall drive for maximizing our information, and I will admit that to some extent it is, but I believe that survival of the maximum number of Ward inmates is critical to our success and the Herbalist has the most power in preventing deaths.

Regarding a matter which is now of great interest to me- I think it needs to be pointed out that the Herbalist can't save everyone. We don't (I think) know how many "saves" he or she gets, but given how small the village is, I'd say no more than two or three- and it seems one has been used. Thus, it's not a simple matter of "which one to save" in the case of competing reveals, as by then the Herbalist might no longer have the option at all, or might want to reserve it for the end game.

[Nerwen]

And now back to our usual programme.

Aaaiieee! Woe is me, for doom has come upon me! Woe, for the fiends who walk among us have brought me dreams of blackest despair! All is lost! All must perish!

[Nerwen]

Further (dark, despairing) thoughts.

WHY MEEEEE? WHYYYYYYY?

No seriously, why? If I were a wolf, there's people I'd have targeted first- I won't say who they are at this point, of course.

WHAT DID I DOOOOO?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well this is certainly a much more positive Day start than one would think. In this light, the possibilities to "wait it out" seem just that much better.

Which brings me back to the question we had on the Day before. On personal level, I would prefer an "active" game, but I am still wondering whether, under the circumstances (we just got a Day extra, basically) "waiting it out" isn't a better strategy. Of course, the problem with the WWs being able to kill the Gifteds and winning that way still stands. On the other hand, if they are reduced to one kill per Night, and higher number of people to choose from, their chances are thinning considerably. I am not the one for statistics, in fact I plainly dislike such "probability" calculations because real world doesn't operate that way, but still it is clear to me that less dead people = more chances for the WWs to pick a wrong kill. Also, less chance to accidentally lynch a Gifted.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Ok, I guess it wouldn't hurt for the would-be afflicted to out themselves (cue Legate-180™.

Welcome to the club.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Thank you, Legate for keeping your word. You are clearly a cut above most legislative representatives throughout history!

You're certainly welcome. Maybe I should have done a career in politics, after all.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

And also, imposterdom bears great risks for the wolves as well.

That is the main thing that makes me think it's a good idea if Blackbreathed people make their condition known. It's a very risky thing for the WWs to do so.

And that also, incidentally, makes me think that the "waiting out" approach would force the WWs to fight on the defensive, so to say. They would be (well, I think they already are) forced to be pro-active, which means that they would have to e.g. exactly try to be impostors, try to push people towards something, simply, put themselves in danger.

It would be a "strategic" game for the village, rather than "tactical", so to say. Like I am not saying we should not lynch anyone, even toDay. Like I said, from the "playing" perspective, I would prefer that (as in, more interesting), plus there is still the fact that we pick what is our "win condition" the same way as the WWs do. But generally, we don't really learn anything from the deaths (lynches), and so on... so... well, what do you people think?

(Of course, nothing prevents us from discussing potential suspects and in the end decide that we don't want to lynch anyone toDay after all, either. Actually that might be preferable. But whatever.)

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I also thought that yesterDAY the Herbalist probably already had enough to go on, and as it turned out I was right.

Quite a supposition!

Originally Posted by Loslote

Oh, actually, that makes a lot more sense. I had meant that we would only tell the Herbalist what to do in the case that we had two competing reveals - namely, we would tell the Herbalist which of the two reveals to protect, so that we could learn the roles of both. I didn't mean that we would tell the Herbalist what to do if we didn't have competing reveals, and I can see how you wouldn't have liked that suggestion.

How do we 'learn the roles of both'?

And we have Nerwen, 'afflicted', then better, then relapsing? Also, if the Herbalist was indeed responsible for her protection, then xe has a quandary toNight whether to see to her again.

[Boromir88]

Legate, Lommy...why would you have gone with Inzil yesterday, if we had to make a lynch?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well this is certainly a much more positive Day start than one would think. In this light, the possibilities to "wait it out" seem just that much better.

Which brings me back to the question we had on the Day before. On personal level, I would prefer an "active" game, but I am still wondering whether, under the circumstances (we just got a Day extra, basically) "waiting it out" isn't a better strategy. Of course, the problem with the WWs being able to kill the Gifteds and winning that way still stands. On the other hand, if they are reduced to one kill per Night, and higher number of people to choose from, their chances are thinning considerably. I am not the one for statistics, in fact I plainly dislike such "probability" calculations because real world doesn't operate that way, but still it is clear to me that less dead people = more chances for the WWs to pick a wrong kill. Also, less chance to accidentally lynch a Gifted.

They already only have one kill per Night. The other kill is ours, i.e. the lynch (unless, of course, a wolf became representative- and a wolf could subvert any general strategy). Your way, the wolves can kill us freely, while we have *no* chance to kill *any* wolves.

And that also, incidentally, makes me think that the "waiting out" approach would force the WWs to fight on the defensive, so to say. They would be (well, I think they already are) forced to be pro-active, which means that they would have to e.g. exactly try to be impostors, try to push people towards something, simply, put themselves in danger.

Why? We're not even really looking for them, in this scenario. All they have to do is keep killing us and hope to hit the gifteds- and gifteds are rather prone to inadvertent "tells".

It would be a "strategic" game for the village, rather than "tactical", so to say. Like I am not saying we should not lynch anyone, even toDay. Like I said, from the "playing" perspective, I would prefer that (as in, more interesting), plus there is still the fact that we pick what is our "win condition" the same way as the WWs do. But generally, we don't really learn anything from the deaths (lynches), and so on... so... well, what do you people think?

What I said yesterDay: we should exercise the no-lynch option if we simply have no idea, but we do our best to hunt wolves.

Note also that in your scenario the number of wolves vs innocents *certainly* increases (rather than possibly, as in a normal game), making it ever easier for them to control the vote- and there may well come a point where a wolf-rep could safely lynch at will.

Thiis a potential problem whatever we do, but it definitely happens if no wolves die.

(Of course, nothing prevents us from discussing potential suspects and in the end decide that we don't want to lynch anyone toDay after all, either. Actually that might be preferable. But whatever.)

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

As I said, I think this decision of whether or not to lynch should be on a Day by Day basis rather than an over-arching strategy for the whole game.
Edit: x'd with Zil & Boro.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Quite a supposition!



How do we 'learn the roles of both'?

And we have Nerwen, 'afflicted', then better, then relapsing? Also, if the Herbalist was indeed responsible for her protection, then xe has a quandary toNight whether to see to her again.

Hang on. What do you suppose has happened, Zil?

[Kuruharan]

Don't have a lot of time at this specific moment, will later.

But I wanted to pop in and say that I am in favor of considering the no-lynch tactic again toDAY.

However, that being said, unless McCaber turns up toDAY we are going to lose him.

And also note, I said "consider." I'm not advocating adoption of it at this time.

[satansaloser2005]

I've just sent a message to McCaber (which my phone insists is supposed to be macabre) on FB.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hang on. What do you suppose has happened, Zil?

A bad lot of sweet galenas?

[Inziladun]

Really though, what am I missing here?

Originally Posted by Admin Thread

Herbalist – The herbalist is able to reduce the effects of the Black Breath by creating a soothing brew from rare herbs. One leaf of said herb will bring someone back from the brink of despair, returning them to their previous state. Since the Ward is locked, the herbalist's supply is limited, and they are the only one who is capable of administering the herbs.

The herbalist may brew during both Day and Night phase, but their picks must be submitted one hour prior to the deadline in order to be valid. The herbalist is not required to choose a target during each phase. They are allowed to treat themselves, and they may heal the same person as many times in a row as they wish, but they have a finite number of herbs (which will be determined by the final size of the village) and can only assist one person per phase.

Note: If the herbalist treats someone on the same Night they are targeted by the conspirators, the herbs have no effect, as the person is not officially under the effects until the morning.

Why does someone protected relapse? And according to this, the Herbalist could not have caused the Conspirator's target to feel better that Night.

Am I being incredibly thick? I could blame it on pain meds, only I haven't had any for days.

[Lalaith]

Hello everyone. So pleased to see we are all still here - well done, Herbalist or Bard!
On the subject of which, can someone explain how the healing powers of our two Gifteds differ in practice?
The only difference I can work out is that the Bard cannot heal him/herself and the Herbalist's supplies are limited....however, there might be an argument for the two to work together and protect each other in tandem while we wait it out?
I'm sure this thesis has flaws - please someone point them out. The main flaw I can see is that it seems rather unsporting.

[Lalaith]

And according to this, the Herbalist could not have caused the Conspirator's target to feel better that Night.

the way I read it, the Herbalist couldn't have protected Lottie on Night One, when she was breathed on. They could however dose her up during Day One, once she had told us how poorly she was, as long as they got their dose in an hour before deadline.
But I may be wrong.

[Lalaith]

Hmmm.
I've just been reading the rules again and have managed to spot an obvious flaw in my thesis - there are no reveals allowed so any co-operation would have to be done on the basis of 'hints and speculation' which could be very risky.

However, that being said, unless McCaber turns up toDAY we are going to lose him.

Good point. And on that note I will make sure to vote toDay. Sorry about yesterDay - I really was too tired and confused to make a decision. Being on GMT will mean me having to vote very early each Day, btw.

[Loslote]

The Bard protects their target, preventing them from being demoralized. The Herbalist heals their target after they have been demoralized, and can only do so a finite number of times. I had been demoralized and would have been dead toDay, except that the Herbalist healed me. Nerwen has, apparently, been demoralized now. I am a little suspicious, though - since McCaber hasn't shown up, the wolves may have taken this opportunity to try to give one of their own "known innocent" status by targeting McCaber, then having Nerwen reveal herself as the afflicted, then letting McCaber be modfired, leaving no one to die the following night - which we would interpret as another successful Herbalist save. This may not be the case, of course, but I am wary.

[Lalaith]

The Bard protects their target, preventing them from being demoralized.

Right - so the Bard has to guess beforehand who the Conspirators will target, but the Herbalist can act on information given?

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Loslote

The Bard protects their target, preventing them from being demoralized. The Herbalist heals their target after they have been demoralized, and can only do so a finite number of times. I had been demoralized and would have been dead toDay, except that the Herbalist healed me. Nerwen has, apparently, been demoralized now.

Lottie's understanding of how the gifteds roles work is in accord with my own.

I am working on an updated numbers post.

I am a little dismayed at the lack of conversation today.

[Lalaith]

I am a little dismayed at the lack of conversation today.

I think people have been turning up and finding themselves alone.
Poor Nerwen talking to herself all morning, then I was just nattering on to myself just now...

[Thinlómien]

I'm kinda having hard time getting into this game - I wonder if it's been too long since there was a game or if it's just the new rules. Waiting out seems a smart overall strategy if we're unsure, but I feel like there must be some catch we haven't figured out. (Not to mention I don't like not voting.)

The one thing that is pretty obvious to me Lottie should be our representative toDay. But that's about as far as my clarity of mind goes.

Originally Posted by Boro

Legate, Lommy...why would you have gone with Inzil yesterday, if we had to make a lynch?

I said I find his polite and distanced yet slightly confusion mongering way of discussing the rules stood out to me, but other than that there really wasn't anything dramatic. What are you getting at? Noted something interesting about him?

The McCaber situation is something to consider. In general, I like to ignore modkills because they are not, in a sense, part of the actual game. Lottie's theory about Nerwen's fake despair is interesting. I mean, when I saw Nerwen's posts, they seemed really fishy to me, but since there's been no counter-claim I thought it's nothing. But if the wolves indeed went for McCaber, it would make sense. Not sure it'd make sense for them to go for McCaber in the first place though.

I also have to echo Kuru about the silence. It's creepy. (Not that I have been around toDay either, but I'm going to now.) And I would also like to echo myself from yesterDay about the general lack of suspicion being thrown around. I can't help but to think it's playing into the wolves' hands (paws?).

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

The one thing that is pretty obvious to me Lottie should be our representative toDay. But that's about as far as my clarity of mind goes.

Maybe. I wouldn't say it's obvious, but I would consider it.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I said I find his polite and 'Distanced yet slightly confusion mongering way of discussing the rules' stood out to me, but other than that there really wasn't anything dramatic.

That addled, huh? Wow.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I mean, when I saw Nerwen's posts, they seemed really fishy to me, but since there's been no counter-claim I thought it's nothing. But if the wolves indeed went for McCaber, it would make sense. Not sure it'd make sense for them to go for McCaber in the first place though.

I'm a bit leery of Nerwen. But as you said, the lack of a counter is something to think about. And indeed why Cab?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I also have to echo Kuru about the silence. It's creepy. (Not that I have been around toDay either, but I'm going to now.) And I would also like to echo myself from yesterDay about the general lack of suspicion being thrown around. I can't help but to think it's playing into the wolves' hands (paws?).

At this point I'm wondering if someone shouldn't be reported by the Rep toNight.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'm a bit leery of Nerwen. But as you said, the lack of a counter is something to think about. And indeed why Cab?

Well, if the wolves realized that their kills probably weren't going to go through until they used up the Herbalist's healing ability, why not try a risky strategy? Bank on McCaber not showing up, and using him being modfired as cover for one of their own to become a "known innocent". Obviously, if McCaber comes back, they'd be out a wolf, but it's the best shot they'd have of a fake Black Breath reveal all game. And I agree with Lommy - Nerwen's despairing posts felt disingenuous to me, as well.

[Kuruharan]

Behold my Creation!

UPDATED NO LYNCH SCENARIO – WORST CASE OF NO SUCCESSFUL SAVES
Day One
Player 1
Player 2
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

Day Two
Player 1
Player 2
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

Day Three
Player 2
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
Player 1

Day Four
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
Player 1
Player 2

Day Five
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
Player 1
Player 2
Player 3

Day Six – Ride of the Rohirrim
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
Player 1
Player 2
Player 3
Player 4

The passive route is more doable now. If the gifteds can block/save one more time and one of them lives, then the wolves can't kill us fast enough to win.

But, and it is a big but, both gifteds have to survive.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well, if the wolves realized that their kills probably weren't going to go through until they used up the Herbalist's healing ability, why not try a risky strategy? Bank on McCaber not showing up, and using him being modfired as cover for one of their own to become a "known innocent". Obviously, if McCaber comes back, they'd be out a wolf, but it's the best shot they'd have of a fake Black Breath reveal all game.

I'd say that was a very risky strategy, but maybe the firm deadline could make it a bit more attractive?

Originally Posted by Loslote

And I agree with Lommy - Nerwen's despairing posts felt disingenuous to me, as well.

At this point, if there was to be a lynch I'd probably say Nerwen.

x/d with Kuru

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Nerwen has, apparently, been demoralized now. I am a little suspicious, though - since McCaber hasn't shown up, the wolves may have taken this opportunity to try to give one of their own "known innocent" status by targeting McCaber, then having Nerwen reveal herself as the afflicted, then letting McCaber be modfired, leaving no one to die the following night - which we would interpret as another successful Herbalist save. This may not be the case, of course, but I am wary.

You're saying the wolves would deliberately miss a kill, in such a numbers-based game? Does that make sense? And if they were willing to try that, for some reason, why would a modfire candidate be needed, when they could just not send in a kill?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I said I find his polite and distanced yet slightly confusion mongering way of discussing the rules stood out to me, but other than that there really wasn't anything dramatic. What are you getting at? Noted something interesting about him?

Just a bit eyebrow-raising, especially the last sentence. Could be read as Wolflomien testing the waters of suspicion on either an innocent Zil or a Wolfzil.

Originally Posted by Lommy

The McCaber situation is something to consider. In general, I like to ignore modkills because they are not, in a sense, part of the actual game. Lottie's theory about Nerwen's fake despair is interesting. I mean, when I saw Nerwen's posts, they seemed really fishy to me, but since there's been no counter-claim I thought it's nothing. But if the wolves indeed went for McCaber, it would make sense. Not sure it'd make sense for them to go for McCaber in the first place though.

Very eyebrow-raising, given that Lottie's "case" against me really doesn't make much sense- but what wolf could resist encouraging one almost-known-innocent to go after the other?

It may be nothing more than rusty playing, of course- but still, I think "something to consider".

Edit: x'd since Lommy at #105.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You're saying the wolves would deliberately miss a kill, in such a numbers-based game? Does that make sense? And if they were willing to try that, for some reason, why would a modfire candidate be needed, when they could just not send in a kill?

Well, not sending in a name would work, too, and would be much less risky, but the narration indicated that the wolves did whisper their poison in someone's ear last night, so either it was you or it was someone else who the wolves didn't think would be around to contradict your story. I'm not saying you are for sure evil, either - just that I would not be quick to assume that someone is innocent just because they say they are demoralized and no one else jumps in to say they're wrong.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'd say that was a very risky strategy, but maybe the firm deadline could make it a bit more attractive?



At this point, if there was to be a lynch I'd probably say Nerwen.

x/d with Kuru

And what I said about Lommy applies to Zil, and harder.

No, this is not just because I'm the target- look how his "suspicion" just builds out of thin air.

Edit: x'd with Lottie.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Legate, Lommy...why would you have gone with Inzil yesterday, if we had to make a lynch?

Simply - out of all the people, not that anybody said anything much, it was Day 1 and all, you know the drill - out of all the people, he would be the one whose way of acting seemed the most worthy of suspicion to me. It was the general tone of his posts which seemed to me different from the innocent Inzil I know, but that's about it. Also (but that is not a suspicion-worthy thing overall, just something that marked him in the limited field of Day 1) has been a certain confusing tone to him which actually persists until toDay (I totally didn't get his questions regarding Nerwen?), although that is purely just confusing and I don't know what to make of it. So that is not the question. As for now, I still have some raised eyebrow over him, but that may be a residue from yesterDay and partly also the confusion (as in, what is he trying to say? Moreover, for what purpose?).

Originally Posted by Nerwen

They already only have one kill per Night. The other kill is ours, i.e. the lynch (unless, of course, a wolf became representative- and a wolf could subvert any general strategy). Your way, the wolves can kill us freely, while we have *no* chance to kill *any* wolves.

Point taken. That's really what I said about the game being now a question of "strategy" rather than "tactics". The balance is on the long-term rather than short-term stuff. The WWs of course can kill us freely, however, that's the only thing they can do - and, as we have seen this morning, even that might not work at all! We still have two "Rangers", effectively. If I now take the basic non-vote case as an example: we lynch nobody and WWs kill people on Night 3, Night 4 and Night 5. If they don't manage to kill the two Gifteds, we are ok in numbers. And on top of everything, there is still a chance the Gifteds protect some of the people.

Whereas if we lynch people, therefore making the village smaller, we are also giving the WWs bigger chance of targeting the Gifteds (if I discount the risk of accidentally lynching a Gifted ourselves).

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why? We're not even really looking for them, in this scenario. All they have to do is keep killing us and hope to hit the gifteds- and gifteds are rather prone to inadvertent "tells".

I suggest to look for Wolves. For certain. That's even why I stated who I would want to vote for yesterDay to lynch if I had to, even though at that point it was really based on almost zero info (Day 1...). I think if we all do it and voice our opinions as if this were a "normal" game, it helps us to get the general picture and it may help us bag a Wolf if we decide (at any point) to actually lynch someone after all.

The disadvantage I see in this is that we are not going to even learn whether we lynched correctly.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

What I said yesterDay: we should exercise the no-lynch option if we simply have no idea, but we do our best to hunt wolves.

I agree with this. However, I would like to point out that so far more or less nobody seemed to be doing that. It won't do if we start debating two hours before DL (or ten minutes before somebody needs to go to sleep) who we find suspicious AND ALSO who we want to select as Rep. So if yes, please let's start doing it now.

I said as much already yesterDay: People should say whom do they suspect, early enough, and then also select the Rep. If we are hunting Wolves, the game forces us to actually go through the process of selecting a candidate twice, because first we should decide who we suspect, and then cast the vote for the Rep. (That, granted, can be done pretty quickly if we see who is the most "trustworthy" when it comes to sending in the name of the person we want to see lynched, but it does require everyone saying who they would lynch, because that way we can know whom to vote as Rep!!!)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Note also that in your scenario the number of wolves vs innocents *certainly* increases (rather than possibly, as in a normal game), making it ever easier for them to control the vote- and there may well come a point where a wolf-rep could safely lynch at will.

Well it won't happen by pure numbers (if we don't lynch anyone ever, there will still be more innocents than Wolves). On top of that (pure theoretical scenario here, but just to make the point) if we decided never ever to lynch anyone and just sit for the rest of the game, then the WWs could not control the vote, because the vote would only serve the purpose not to vote anyone. And at the moment the Rep betrayed our trust (i.e. lynched someone when it was stated that there should be no lynch), they would get lynched the next Day, obviously. So the WWs could - in the ideal state - do it only on the very last Day, and (hopefully, presumably, statistically) that should not save them if both Gifteds were still alive. (But yes, I acknowledge that is a risk.)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

As I said, I think this decision of whether or not to lynch should be on a Day by Day basis rather than an over-arching strategy for the whole game.

Agreed agreed, as has been said many times. Just for the time being, I am not yet decided what would my preference for toDay be. If we don't get a clear picture whom we want to lynch, we can afford not doing it and it might be fine. We got ourselves an extra Day, after all. But if we get some good idea whom to lynch, let's do it, by all means.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm kinda having hard time getting into this game - I wonder if it's been too long since there was a game or if it's just the new rules. Waiting out seems a smart overall strategy if we're unsure, but I feel like there must be some catch we haven't figured out. (Not to mention I don't like not voting.)

Well one obvious catch, as Nerwen mentioned, is the fact that the Wolves will be here in full strength, all the time. And that they can theoretically win just by killing two Gifteds. But they can do it in any case, of course. It is really mostly about what do we decide to do.

Originally Posted by Lommy

The one thing that is pretty obvious to me Lottie should be our representative toDay. But that's about as far as my clarity of mind goes.

That, actually, seems like a reasonable thing. Even though I hasten to point out that people we consider likely to be innocent do not need to always be right in their opinions (e.g. if we wanted to make a lynch), but at least they should not be Wolves (and I would therefore expect them to honor whatever the village decides to do - and if they didn't, to bear the consequences, i.e. lynch the next Day).

And at least as long as we don't get a competing sick-person, we should probably assume that whoever is sick is sick. The same goes for Nerwen toDay. I can imagine a scenario where a Wolf might try to fake it, but I think it would require too much risk on their part. Unless, of course, unless they felt already threatened by the danger of being "waited out" by the village. If so, they probably would want to act as soon as possible. For that particular reason, speaking of that, I would not recommend Nerwen (or always the "sick" person anyway) to be selected for the Rep on this Day, just in case.

Originally Posted by Lommy

The McCaber situation is something to consider. In general, I like to ignore modkills because they are not, in a sense, part of the actual game. Lottie's theory about Nerwen's fake despair is interesting. I mean, when I saw Nerwen's posts, they seemed really fishy to me, but since there's been no counter-claim I thought it's nothing. But if the wolves indeed went for McCaber, it would make sense. Not sure it'd make sense for them to go for McCaber in the first place though.

This just as an addendum to what I just said; I also think it unlikely the WWs would target Cab, and it would be fairly complicated. But see above.

But anyway: we are probably losing McCaber toNight, so that is one more point to consider in regards to the ratio of living people vs. total of WWs etc., so... well.

My thoughts about people toDay to follow... maybe rather in a different post, this is probably long already, and maybe someone will post meanwhile.

EDIT: x-ed after Lommy... whoa whoa, what an activity suddenly

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well, not sending in a name would work, too, and would be much less risky, but the narration indicated that the wolves did whisper their poison in someone's ear last night, so either it was you or it was someone else who the wolves didn't think would be around to contradict your story. I'm not saying you are for sure evil, either - just that I would not be quick to assume that someone is innocent just because they say they are demoralized and no one else jumps in to say they're wrong.

I agree that my claiming to be demoralised doesn't prove it- that is self-evident. Your particular scenario is pretty far-fetched however, as you admit yourself- and yet somehow not one but two players find it compelling, to the point where one of them is now actually proposing me as a lynch-candidate.

I say that, regardless of what course we decide on toDay, Lommy and Zil really need to be watched.

Edit: x'd with Legate.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate

Well it won't happen by pure numbers (if we don't lynch anyone ever, there will still be more innocents than Wolves). On top of that (pure theoretical scenario here, but just to make the point) if we decided never ever to lynch anyone and just sit for the rest of the game, then the WWs could not control the vote, because the vote would only serve the purpose not to vote anyone. And at the moment the Rep betrayed our trust (i.e. lynched someone when it was stated that there should be no lynch), they would get lynched the next Day, obviously. So the WWs could - in the ideal state - do it only on the very last Day, and (hopefully, presumably, statistically) that should not save them if both Gifteds were still alive. (But yes, I acknowledge that is a risk.)

The trouble is, I can think of a way a Wolf-rep could, potentially, get away with lynching someone regardless. For obvious reasons I am not going to say what it is.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well, not sending in a name would work, too, and would be much less risky, but the narration indicated that the wolves did whisper their poison in someone's ear last night, so either it was you or it was someone else who the wolves didn't think would be around to contradict your story. I'm not saying you are for sure evil, either - just that I would not be quick to assume that someone is innocent just because they say they are demoralized and no one else jumps in to say they're wrong.

Hey, good perception there! Because that crossed my mind as well, that the WWs might forgo a kill, but now this actually is out of question. And I really, really find it hard that they would bet on killing McCaber. That's too much overcombination to begin with, and too risky if he turned up. Or even a risk if modfires actually are written into the narration as normal deaths, or as something else.

Hmm. I flip-flopped a couple of times while reading the previous stuff, but I am more inclined to trust Nerwen for the time being. She is being somewhat defensive, to be sure, but overall - after considering what Lottie just pointed out - I would think it more likely that Nerwen's utterly dismayed state is genuine.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'd say that was a very risky strategy, but maybe the firm deadline could make it a bit more attractive?

Not sending a name would be a risky strategy worth trying. But since that didn't happen... sending Cab's name would be much riskier strategy and not worth trying, in my opinion. Of course depends on the Wolves, but really - if they wanted to do that, the logical thing would be not to send a name and then pretend to be sick, not to send a name and hope the person is modfired.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

At this point, if there was to be a lynch I'd probably say Nerwen.

Why? I think this certainly does not make any sense whatsoever. At least not at this point.

EDIT: x-ed with two Nerwens

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Be not bereaved, dear one, all is not yet lost! Is not the sky the bluest we've seen in weeks? Is not your own flowerbed responding to the sunlight - look there, how the colors dance! All will yet be well, if you just keep looking on the bright side.

(No, this isn't a bardic hint or anything like that. It's just... I mean, it's Nerwen. )

In other news, I apologize for my absence. I'm afraid I won't be around much today - Saturday is the busiest day of the week for me. As such, I'm going to vote for my representative fairly early, probably in the next hour or two. It's likely to be for Lottie or my moon and stars, given the obvious. I'll follow along as I can, though.

[Lalaith]

It won't do if we start debating two hours before DL (or ten minutes before somebody needs to go to sleep) who we find suspicious AND ALSO who we want to select as Rep. So if yes, please let's start doing it now.

Yes - sound and sensible talk here, Legate. This has been what's worrying me, too. We've got a split village in terms of time zones and we don't know on which side of the sundering seas the majority of wolves are on. So we need to have set up some kind of decision/strategy before the Europeans go to bed.
I do agree that Lottie should be representative tonight, I can't logically see that she could be guilty.

[Loslote]

While I do think the wolves would be very eager to get away with a fake reveal, I also agree that at this point in the game the fake-reveal theory would be way over-complicated, and probably did not happen last Night. Especially because it would have been easier to just send in no name, which I hadn't thought of at first.

I initially suggested the fake-reveal theory at least in part because I felt that her despairing posts felt off. Her more recent, more serious posts have felt much more like the Nerwen I'm used to. I do think we should look at Zil's

At this point, if there was to be a lynch I'd probably say Nerwen.

That struck me as jumping the gun by quite a lot. I hadn't even suggested lynching her - just taking a step back and considering the possibilities before we trusted her reveal completely.

Edit: xed with Shasta and Lalaith

[Thinlómien]

Okay, now I'm pretty conflicted about Nerwen, I didn't expect such an outburst.

Originally Posted by Legate

I think if we all do it and voice our opinions as if this were a "normal" game, it helps us to get the general picture and it may help us bag a Wolf if we decide (at any point) to actually lynch someone after all.
The disadvantage I see in this is that we are not going to even learn whether we lynched correctly.

Very much agreed. I don't want to give the wolves free passes, and besides, throwing around suspicion never fails to liven up the discussion. I mean, look at toDay. Seriously though, I agree we should start the lynch discussions earlier. The only problem as I see it is that with no lynch yesterDay and no kill last Night, we are virtually having another Day1 as far as evidence goes (and this situation will last, even though other kind of evidence will slowly keep gathering).

Originally Posted by Legate

That, actually, seems like a reasonable thing. Even though I hasten to point out that people we consider likely to be innocent do not need to always be right in their opinions (e.g. if we wanted to make a lynch), but at least they should not be Wolves (and I would therefore expect them to honor whatever the village decides to do - and if they didn't, to bear the consequences, i.e. lynch the next Day).

Lottie, you up for some democracy?