Tol-in-Gaurhoth (Isle of Werewolves)

[The Saucepan Man]

To make things even easier for your poor, blind moderator, please post votes in BOLD CAPITAL LETTERS. Thanks!

Does that mean that votes cast so far don't count?

If not, I should be most grateful, Anguirel, if you would amend your post to unembolden my name. I wouldn't want to be hung on a technicality.

It seems to me that all we really have to go on so far is the presumption that those making quick and rash accusations may be seeking to deflect blame from themseleves. But, as Feanor of the Peredhil points out, that's hardly firm evidence of guilt.

However, one point did occur to me on reflection. Feanor originally said:

The Saucepan Man did it! I swear, I heard pots clanging around last night.

Now, assuming that the Werewolves are aware of what they are doing, what sense does it make that one would go about murder attired in pots and pans? And, if they are unaware of their foul deeds, it seems most likely that the transformation process would break the straps holding the pots and pans in place. See, they are really rather tight. So, either Feanor heard something other than a Werewolf or she is lying.

Maybe my pots and pans were rattling in the wind. But it has never happened before. So, does anyone have any idea as to what she might have heard? If not, I would conclude that her story was a ruse to deflect blame and find her guilty.

[Anguirel]

My lady Mithalwen, I apologise. But surely your Elven senses and foresight can help us detect the true culprit?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I am of the opinion that not only is The Saucepan Man a werewolf, but he is a lawyer, if not a loyer, and that means that he knows perfectly well how to discredit a witness. So now, not only does he have the crime behind him, but he knows all the legal ways to keep himself looking innocent. But he's slipped. He doesn't look innocent at all! I say that ++THE SAUCEPAN MAN is our culprit, and that the phantom is in cahoots with him. Why else would Saucie place the blame on an innocent like me, and why, oh why, would the phantom be keeping so mysteriously quiet? That's just not like him at all, to stay out of the center of a discussion so important for so long.

[Mithalwen]

Ah but I wouldnot give rash counsel ..... a little time to analyse. Iwillgive you a considered response ere long.

[Anguirel]

Out of the strong come something sweet. Feanor speaks plainly and firmly, as did her illustrious male namesake, so they say. Wriggle your way out of that, o Saucepan Man!

Besides, I've just realised the clanking was probably me rolling about on my anvil in my sleep. (It was in many pieces in the morning.) I was having a peculiar nightmare which caused the slashing to make many to noise.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I've had another thought. When I just looked, there were 12 members online, but only 10 in plain sight! Why would anyone innocent ghost themselves? And we all know that Saucie is online, given that he just replied, but... he is not visable.

[The Saucepan Man]

I think the good, rustic sense Primrose is showing does credit to us all. She defends the innocent and helpless, and assaults the sophists.

On the contrary, I would suggest that those who seek to apply intelligence and common sense to solve this hideous crime show their innocence, since they are they risk attracting the attention of the Werwolves to themselves. Alas! 'Tis a risky business indeed, but I place the interests of the village as a whole above my own personal safety.

Should I be taken in the next few nights, you will know what to conclude ...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Look! Look, see? He's online, but hiding. Why would anyone innocent hide in the shadows?

[the phantom]

Interesting to note, though, are the frequent duels we have all witnessed between the Saucepan Man and the Phantom. Is this antipathy a cover-up for their blood drenched schemes?

I assure you, these verbal duels are the result of a very real mutual hatred. Working together- ha!

Now, just let me say this- werewolves don't slay by night only. During the day, they do their killing by convincing the village to lynch an innocent person. Now, keeping that in mind, the primary suspects appear to be Fea and Anguirel. However, it is a known fact that werewolves kill their own families and dearest friends first, so that puts Fea in the clear since I, her very dear friend, am still alive.

And so, ++ANGUIREL is my primary suspect. For further evidence, I saw Ang holding a whispered conference (pming) with someone, or something, last night.

[The Saucepan Man]

Besides, I've just realised the clanking was probably me rolling about on my anvil in my sleep.

Hmm, I suspected that you might be the first one to seek to explain Feanor's story. And, if you speak the truth, then you have been making accusations based on evidence which you knew to be false.

And we all know that Saucie is online, given that he just replied, but... he is not visable.

Inadmissible under the rules, as I understand them. But, in any event, I freely admit that I have indeed cloaked my posting activity. I did so before the adjudicator's message was received. The reason? It occurred to me that it would rather spoil things if only the Werewolves did so. (And I would suggest that all participating should do so.)

[The Barrow-Wight]

People have been editing posts, changing thier votes from bold to regular to bold again. We need to come up with a system that will allow me to keep track of the votes as I read through the DAY. I don't want to have to go to the beginning of each DAY and read everything to tally the votes. I prefer to add them as I go. So let's set up a standard way of doing things.

If you are voting for someone, their name should be in bold capital letters proceeded by a "++" (++SHARKU). The doubled symbol is intentional.

If you have already voted for someone and want to 'take it back', their name should be in bold capital letters proceeded by a "--" (--SHARKU). The doubled symbol is intentional.

Here is an example:

Earlier, I was really sure that --SHARKU is a werewolf, but now I am quite positive we need to hang ++THE BARROW-WIGHT.

If you are no longer ready to commit to an earlier vote:

On second thought, I think I'll hold off on my judment of --THE BARROW-WIGHT

Using this system will make things a whole lot easier for me and will cause less confusion for everyone.

To recap, do not edit old votes. Simply post a change as noted above.

* I am going back now into your posts to edit them to meet this standard.

** The current tally (1:11 PM EST) is:
** 1 vote for Anguirel
** 1 vote for The Saucepan Man
** 1 vote for Firefoot

Thanks

[Primrose Bolger]

On the contrary, I would suggest that those who seek to apply intelligence and common sense to solve this hideous crime show their innocence, since they are they risk attracting the attention of the Werwolves to themselves. Alas! 'Tis a risky business indeed, but I place the interests of the village as a whole above my own personal safety.

-- Saucepan Man

Words and reasonings as sharp as any Werewolf's teeth! What with all this protestation, this could well be another monster in fine clothing.

bilbo_baggins and The Saucepan Man!

As for hiding . . . all us villagers should hide, silver-tipped spear in hand, lest the cravens single us out . . .

[Anguirel]

All this defamatory nonsense! It simply took me a while, my dear loyer, to recall the existence of my anvil, since it had been reduced to dust as I tossed and turned. (Donation of another would be appreciated. It's awfully uncomfortable lying about on wood like this.)

((Are we allowed to post innocent PMs to prove how unsmirched we are? I think perhaps not. Nevermind.))

I assure you that though I was having lively conversations, they concerned the nature of Iarwain Ben-Adar and the exploration of the fortress of Himling. I'm a scholar as well as the best sword in Middle-earth. I have many assets. And I'm terribly law-abiding. Hanging (melting?) me would honestly be a really bad move.

Look at the skulking architects of slander! It disgusts me. I regret to add that I am quite sure ++THE SAUCEPAN MAN, with or without pots, is the verminous culprit.

[The Saucepan Man]

As I suspected. It makes perfect sense for the guilty parties to vote against any who seek to shed light on their bestial identities.

As I said, it's a risky business but someone's got to do it.

Should I die, and my innocence thereby be proved, think only this of me: That I sought to bring justice to this once great village.

And look to those who sought to accuse me ...

[bilbo_baggins]

I still say we should be reasonable, village-folk.

We have this evidence before us: Feanor posted first, Anguirel second, myself third, SpM fourth, Kuruharan - 5 , Oddwen - 6, mormegil - 7, Primrose Bolger - 8, Mithalwen - 9, the phantom - 10 ( Did I get that right? Someone else check the order)

Barrow-Wight, I have not accused anyone in the above post, so you know.

And, furthermore, I withold the vote I still have no idea who to use on until later.

Let us decide where to go from here.

As BW said, there are only four legal votes stated so far. (is it four?)

bilbo_baggins

[Anguirel]

Three. Plus mine for The Saucepan Man which the Barrow-Wight may not have recorded yet...

These exertions have made me into a Wight's Blade, I see...

[bilbo_baggins]

So who are we missing? Besides poor Shelob, and the 10 who have posted we are still missing a response from Firefoot. Perhaps he is in a vastly different timezone than I, but he should have time now.

Anyway, I also notice that most vocative people have followings. Who shall we see clump together into voting blocs that will not be able to be destroyed? The werewolves are the only ones with destructive power, so if they gang together with those who are blindly following them, this game is lost.

*sits back terrified

I will meet my fate if it comes.

b_b

[Anguirel]

And I mine, whether it be by lupine fang or over-zealous officers of the law. I am resigned. But I will not see these lies and smears put about.

the phantom, I feel, is actually merely in the grip of righteous indignation. No, the Saucepan Man must have other lackeys, more pliable to his iron will. He is a fell beast indeed...

[bilbo_baggins]

So you are more than decided that Saucepan man is the culprit, Anguirel?

I have come to a conundrum. I cannot outright say that I think Anguirel did it, even though she is accusing Saucepan Man on something someone heard, because if I do, I go back on my principles of waiting. How interesting.

Your plan of action, Anguirel, should be not to try to find Sauce's lackeys (if they exist) but to test his innocence by death first. Then we will know if he had any to begin with.

bilbo_baggins

[Mithalwen]

Having analysed the discourse thus far Iwould make the following comments.
While those who talk least may be lying low, the guilty have more reason to accuse.

Firefoot alone has not posted yet. Most of the other surviving villagers comments seem no more than fairly random speculation however there is an overwhelming amount of claim and counterclaim between 3 of our citizens. Feanor of the Peredhil, Saucepan Man and Anguirel.

Iwould draw your attention to a few points:

Feanor has twice stated she was plagued by bad dreams. This might be an attempt to convey that she is a seer. But that would be a risky course of action for a true seer. Muchas I hate to say it -itwouldbe a much safer course of action for a werewolf. However her if we give her the benefit of the doubt (which for old friendship's sake I would like to do), her instant accusation of the Saucepan Man might be a desperate attempt to protect the community from the wily Lawyer. btw we must not let prejudice make us assume that the professionally smooth talking are automatically guilty..... However she did misread Bilbo's Least for last... rushing to attack as the best form of defence?

Nevertheless I do not think SpM beyond suspicion - the self confessed night-owl slept soundly. Hmm

Sadly however, it seems to me that Feanor and Anguirel are making a concerted attack on the pan man while protecting each other.

With great sadness, and perhaps taking the furcoat quip as a confession (and bearing in mind the attempt to cast suspicion on myself - I vote at the moment for ++Anguirel

[mormegil]

My fears of Saucepan Man have been assuaged but I still fear Feanor, Anguirel, Phantom and Firefoot. Let's evaluate each.

Feanor was and has been very vocal and accusatory. Does this imply guilt? Or it is as she stated she is so distraught that she just wants justice no matter how many innocents she accuses.

Anguirel has been very vocal as well same question as asked about Feanor. The difference that I saw some signs at the scene that it may have been Anguirel, I am a expert tracker by the way. I couldn't make it out great but it may have been.

Speaking of tracks I saw some of Firefoots around the scene and being so quiet today makes me even more suspicious.

Phantom of course is a shady character and tracks wouldn't be left by him but just because he's a phantom doesn't imply culpability. But I haven't ruled him out.

[Kuruharan]

Feanor has twice stated she was plagued by bad dreams. This might be an attempt to convey that she is a seer. But that would be a risky course of action for a true seer. Muchas I hate to say it -itwouldbe a much safer course of action for a werewolf. However her if we give her the benefit of the doubt (which for old friendship's sake I would like to do), her instant accusation of the Saucepan Man might be a desperate attempt to protect the community from the wily Lawyer.

But then how do you explain the way in which she instantly started attacking poor bilbo_baggins immediately afterwards? There is something odd going on here...

[bilbo_baggins]

Those are all good points.

Now I am almost convinced that Anguirel and Feanor are in league, for good or bad.

But on the same hand one cannot discount anyone except himself. (and Shelob, and the ones slated to pass on)

I have a few questions for the BW, though.

Does the person who the seer dreams about know that his identity is known, even if not by whom?

And is it absolutely necessary to lynch a person every day?

Just asking....

bilbo_baggins

[Mithalwen]

That may have been to back up Anguirel's initial accusation....

[Anguirel]

Aye, we are in league, for I ally myself with the oppressed against attackers...

And mormegil, I cry you mercy. I am your sword and namesake's twin brother, after all...

[Mithalwen]

But it is youyourselves who have done most of the attacking!!! Aieeeeeee I would it were not so..........

[Anguirel]

Attack is the best form of defence. Besides, if you're a talking sword, there's really not a lot else to do all day...

[The Barrow-Wight]

1) No one knows what the seer dreams unless the seer shares that information with others. Of course, no one knows who the seer is, so he/she is unlikely to directly reveal what was seen.

2) Someone must be hanged every DAY. Someone will be slain each NIGHT.

[bilbo_baggins]

Originally Posted by The Barrow-Wight

2) Someone must be hanged every DAY. Someone will be slain each NIGHT.

Wow; bloodthirsty lot aren't we?

I must say I will have to rescind on my ideas of reason. We really can't make much of the situation with only hearsay.

I will not cast a vote, though, until 5:58 so as not to condemn anyone uneccessarily.

May we choose wisely, then

bilbo_baggins

[Firefoot]

I see people have begun to suspect me for my absense thus far. Let me assure you, it is because of no ill doings on my own part. I was here this morning before Day 1 started, so you see I had no chance to post my thoughts. Then, you see, there is this unfortunate thing called school, at which I never have a chance to log on to a computer. I have only gotten home a short while ago. So you see, 'tis for only very innocent reasons that I have been away.

Now, keeping that in mind, the primary suspects appear to be Fea and Anguirel. However, it is a known fact that werewolves kill their own families and dearest friends first, so that puts Fea in the clear since I, her very dear friend, am still alive.

-phantom

Now this would be true, unless, of course, you are both werewolves. Now phantom is one clever person, and I'd imagine he'd be quite good at covering his tracks. Also, I daresay Fea has been somewhat too vocal about her accusations; it would seem that she would shift the blame to one other than herself. These two lie under my suspicion, though I would not cast a hasty vote.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I am in league with no-one but myself. I do however sympathize mightily with those innocent but being mobbed any how. And wouldn't you all feel terribly guilty if you lynched me and only then found out I was telling the truth? I would never dream of lying to you all. What a nightmare this whole situation is.

However, it is a known fact that werewolves kill their own families and dearest friends first, so that puts Fea in the clear since I, her very dear friend, am still alive.

Not true. My friend, you've forgotten the pack-mentality of wolves. They are not likely to kill each other, but given the nature of this suspicious group, my pointing out this scientific evidence will likely get me hanged. I see that Kuruharan is certainly suspicious... I was distraught, can't you see? Perhaps I spoke too hastily, but does that mean you will kill me? I can't understand why you're all so quick to pack me off to the gallows.

[mormegil]

In careful review of what Fea has said up to this point my dubiety has been minimized. I have come to this conclusion because I can sense that she is very distraught at this and was emotionally moved to be so outspoken. My suspicions are turned elsewhere. Firefoot claims he was at school, but I still feel uncertain about this. Phantom, I just can't get a good read on though I feel we must keep and eye on him.

[Firefoot]

(Mormegil - I'm a she.)

Now, I wonder why you doubt my story. If you search for my posts, you will find that they regularly fall within a time period of 3:30-11:00 pm Eastern Time (I'm actually Central Time, but since the game is going by Eastern...) with a few scattered posts before 8 am (EST) when I chance to post in the morning. This excludes weekends, mark you. I see no reason for my story to be doubted as it has been consistently proven by the times and manner in which I post. If you doubt me, check the search!

Now, what reasons have you for blaming me? Oddwen, you too accused me, seemingly for no reason at all. Is there a reason? I will only respond that blind accusers generally have a reason, mayhap as a cover-up for themselves?

[The Saucepan Man]

In the hope that it may assist, I will lay out my conclusions so far.

The strongest evidence, such as it is, to my mind points to Feanor of the Peredhil and Anguirel. They have been the most vocal, and (significantly) the most mutually supportive, in their accusations. They have both pointed their (nocturnally clawed?) fingers at the efforts of this humble servant of justice to apply logic and calm reasoning to the horrific situation in which we find ourselves.

Now, the Werewolves have the most to gain from making rash accusations and seeking to direct the blame from themselves. But mayhaps that would be a foolish strategy as, by doing so, they simply attract attention to themselves. So they are not yet fully condemned in my mind.

But what of the others?

Oddwen made a quick accusation (and voted without any evidence to support her vote) and then retreated into the background to be heard no more. Could that represent good lupine tactical thinking?

Primrose Bolger, mormegil, Mithalwen and bilbo_baggins all seem to be to be genuine in their attempts to solve the mystery. But could their seeming innocence be a tactical façade?

Kuruharan and the phantom have added the odd observation but otherwise kept quiet. That seems out of character for both of them. Are they laying low in the hope and waiting to feast themselves on more innocent flesh tonight?

I believe Firefoot’s reasons for being unable to contribute to the debate until recently. Other than that, we have nothing but hearsay to accuse her on. That, of course, does not establish her innocence.

Curse these troubled times when we may trust no one but ourselves.

As for me, I admittedly made accusations with little basis to start with. But that was in the context of an immediate accusation from Feanor on the whim of naught but a noise in the night (which now, seemingly, appears to have been Anguirel’s doing). Since then, I have remained vocal, but this has been directed towards flushing out the culprits. I leave it to others to decide whether my attempts in this regard have been genuine.

Currently the voting stands:

1 vote for Firefoot
2 votes for Anguirel
2 votes for me

I for one will not vote for anyone where there is no firm evidence indicating their guilt. Alas, there is not much evidence at all. Yet we must vote. And so I come back to my initial conclusion that the strongest evidence (circumstantial though it is) points to Feanor and Anguirel. I am tending towards Anguirel, but will continue to reserve judgement for now.

[Kuruharan]

Feanor:

We should all be suspicious. Someone with an...odd sense of humor has unleashed a band of ravenous, bloodthirsty maniacs upon our up-until-now happy and peaceful anarcho-syndicalist commune. Since we don't have a lord to figure this out for us (using the banana-shape of the earth to predict when the next full moon will occur) we have to try to figure out who the villains are and restore peace and tranquility to said anarcho-syndicalist commune by ourselves. We don't know who they are as there is little evidence about them (putting the amount of evidence we have at present in very generous terms).

What we know is that they want to kill every last one of us. Taking this into consideration, we have to look at who is behaving in the most bloodthirsty manner. (Simplest explanation is always the best, at least until further information comes to light). I was not accusing you, I haven't accused anybody. I just couldn't resist noting that...some people were dropping names like they were rabid ferrets.

However, if you’d like to present some evidence to the jury, I’m sure everyone would give you a fair hearing.

[Primrose Bolger]

I found this an odd and chilling thing for bilbo_baggins to say:

Your plan of action, Anguirel, should be not to try to find Sauce's lackeys (if they exist) but to test his innocence by death first. Then we will know if he had any to begin with.

I am beginning to think perhaps Saucy is not a Werewolf in league with bilbo_baggins. Perhaps it's just a case of him being a long-winded seer, and by such verbiage and reasonings take on the appearance of a Werewolf.

And bilbo_baggins wants to kill him to prove his innocence . . .

Now that I think on it, in the wee hours of the night I did see the phantom, before the slaying was discovered, having a private moment with someone online . . .

[The Saucepan Man]

Now that I think on it, in the wee hours of the night I did see the phantom, before the slaying was discovered, having a private moment with someone online . . .

I don't regard evidence of this type as having any bearing. But, as I said earlier, I would suggest that everyone switches to invisible mode while playing this game.

[the phantom]

However, it is a known fact that werewolves kill their own families and dearest friends first, so that puts Fea in the clear since I, her very dear friend, am still alive.

Not true. My friend

What's this, Fea? I tried to shift some guilt off of you onto Anguirel and then you poke a hole in my reasoning? It seems you are willing to protect Anguirel, even if it puts you at greater risk.

EVERYONE, go back and read all of Anguirel and Fea's posts in order (and no fair editing them, you two). You will notice quite a bit of mutual support amongst them. Feanor accused Saucy, Ang then accused Saucy as well as Bilbo, then Fea accused Bilbo. Later, they both suggested that I am the culprit. They also defend each other on a couple of occasions.

Feanor has twice stated she was plagued by bad dreams. This might be an attempt to convey that she is a seer. But that would be a risky course of action for a true seer. Muchas I hate to say it -itwouldbe a much safer course of action for a werewolf.

Excellent point, Mith. If the villagers think you are the seer, they certainly wouldn't try to lynch you. A werewolf would love to be thought of as the seer. Not to mention, if she truly was the seer and "knew" that Saucy was a werewolf, why would she then start accusing others instead of sticking with what she knows?

I believe that Anguirel and Fea are both werewolves.

Today, let us vote for Anguirel. If he turns out to be a werewolf, then we'll lynch Fea tomorrow.

If we lynch Anguirel and he isn't a werewolf... well... I would be quite embarrassed and would likely get lynched tomorrow. But since he IS a werewolf I'm not going to worry about that second scenario.

As for the third werewolf...hmm. Fea and Ang have both accused Saucy, Bilbo, and I. Who else has tried to make people suspect Saucy, Bilbo, and I? Primrose Bolger! Now, I'm not certain about PB's guilt, but if Ang and Fea both turn out to be werewolves, PB would be next in my book.

And for you people who are suspecting me... you big sillies. You know me better than that. The victim (Shelob) was mangled beyond recognition. That is not my style. If Shelob would've been found with absolutely no marks on her and with a taunting letter in her pocket, then I would be the primary suspect, but a messy bloody killing- uhg, definitely not me. I hate it when one of my cloaks gets stained.

[Oddwen]

Perhaps I was hasty in blaming you --FIREFOOT, but you must understand that I was just shocked out of my skin by such a grisly act so close to home...

Though all this defending of peoples bothers me...seems the only way someone could KNOW if one is innocent or not is that they're either werewolf or seer...

a little odd

odd sense of humor

-Kuruharan

odd observation

-SPM

odd and chilling

-Primrose Bolger

Strange for these three people to use the same incriminating word, is it not?

Although -
"Can't we all just get along?" - Fea
...very suspicious indeed.

[Kuruharan]

Feeling a little bit paranoid are we...ODDwen?

Come to think of it, you also accused someone out of the blue...