WWLVIII: Escape From Angband (or Behavioral Modification) - Page 29 - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Mithalwen · 03-27-2009, 04:34 PM

Mac, Fea, Mithalwen, and Nogrod are innocent Gwath - Proved seer so no reaon to doubt.

Issy has cleared Nilp... on the whole convinced of her claim.

So that leaves Durelin, Lariren and Nerwen.

Hmm well I voted for Lari day one but that was a random vote based on the manic early pages.... given my posting today pot..kettle

I do find the Macanalysis interesting.

Need ot just take a little look ..tbc

Nogrod · 03-27-2009, 04:52 PM

A few notes from the voting this far.

What Mac said about Kath's votes on Lari and keeping her known fellows safely on the "not suspecting" side.

The determined defence of Lommy by the whole bunch on Day2. Three ducks voted for Gwath (Lommy, wilwa and Nienna). Also Lari votes Gwath - although in a situation where it looked pretty much certain Lommy would go anyway (and Kath votes Lari early on to the Day).

On Day1 that tasteless Legatewagon should be revisited as well. It was - surprise, surprise - Nienna and wilwa who brought Legate even with... Dury and Lari and basically started the wagon. Brinn and Dury completed it then. Lari had voted earlier, giving Dury her first vote that Day.

It has been indeed the last three Days that Lari has voted quite late and against the majorwagons; on D2 against Lommywagon, on D3 against Niennawagon and on D4 against Rikaewagon. And all those we have lynched those Days have been baddies (well Rikae only a cobbler).

Uh-oh... this is comlicated and messy...

Back with some added thoughts in a minute.

Mithalwen · 03-27-2009, 05:03 PM

Voted late Nogrod? She must be a duck then

Mithalwen · 03-27-2009, 05:15 PM

Nine people, four seer proved innocents, maybe 6.
But at least 2 ducks and not clear if Gwath saw exact role rather than non-duck. There is another killer out there who may be working on own account.

Also given that we had a guardian amd seer as well as misc. other roles, chances are there is also the other of the classic gifted trio - a hunter. Now if so and the hunter is non-logical or lynched... then we may not have so much scope for getting today wrong despite our success to date.

I am inclined to not vote Lari due to Mac's analysis ... so that leaves me more or less with a coin toss....

I will be consistent:

++Durelin

Nogrod · 03-27-2009, 05:24 PM

Durelin's vote-record (and a few comments on Lari as side offers as they kind of presented themselves here):

D1: Last vote to Legate two minutes before the DL, sealing the result which was basically clear already. She could have voted anyone there unless someone who did not vote would have turned in at the last minute - in that situation she could have gotten Lari (or herself

) lynched as well.

D2: Gives Lommy her seventh vote. Mathematically it's a kind of crucial vote there even if it sure looked like Lommy was getting the axe there... But had the rest gone the other way she could have tried to save Lommy. After her vote there was no turning back.
Interesting thing here is that the next vote - Lari voting Gwath - is a crosspost (same minute) and it could be seen as trying to help Lommy there.

D3: Brings Nienna to the lead in the end of the Day and gives her the killing blow.
Again, Lari goes the opposite direction by voting Mith, bringing her one vote short.

D4: Basically secured Rikae's death. Not that the chances of anyone else to die would have been great at that point but still.
Lari by contrast gives her vote to Dury two minutes before the DL.

So Dury seems to be wherever the decisive votes are being given and her track record is pretty impressive: three baddies from four votes (and the one she was wrong with was Day1).

On the opposite there is Lari who has managed to vote against every succesful lynchwagon.

So very different candidates here.

I'll go and look at Nerwen's record as well...

Nogrod · 03-27-2009, 05:29 PM

Oh Mith. Had you seen what I found you might have rethought you vote in the light of what these two - Lari and Dury - have been doing and not just tossed a coin...

Although I must admit Dury's track record is almost frighteningly consistent!

(even if it's "going with the flow" most of the time)

Durelin · 03-27-2009, 05:36 PM

I am not sure what to think of Izzy's claim. The detail of her claim is convincing, but... How do you know what Nilp is...?

If we've apparently narrowed it down to myself, Nerwen, and Lari, I am inclined to go with Lari because I believe Nerwen's vote for Nienna on Day 3 speaks in her favour of her because Nienna was under quite a bit of suspicion (especially after wilwa being eliminated mid-day).

But then Kath's consistency Day 2 and 3 against Lari is a problem. Both times she voted early, giving Lari her first vote.

A question, though...if indeed everyone is specifically a "known" innocent except for myself, Lari, and Nerwen, and there are 9 of us left (?)...isn't this game over...unless there is in fact a growing flock?

Durelin · 03-27-2009, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nog

Although I must admit Dury's track record is almost frighteningly consistent!

How so? That I tended to stick with suspects? I usually do, I'm just usually wrong. I have done surprisingly well, yes (I have been quite surprised myself! normally I manage to vote for the seer at some point and never a wolf), but I think most of us have done well, haven't we, seeing how many ducks have been in some manner killed?

Nogrod · 03-27-2009, 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Durelin

But then Kath's consistency Day 2 and 3 against Lari is a problem. Both times she voted early, giving Lari her first vote.

Making a duck-on-duck is safer if you make it early...

Quote:

A question, though...if indeed everyone is specifically a "known" innocent except for myself, Lari, and Nerwen, and there are 9 of us left (?)...isn't this game over...unless there is in fact a growing flock?

The game ends when the number of ducks is equal or surpasses thew number of innocents - not the orther way around, dearie.

But not necessarily in a more serious note either. To be honest, I don't believe it would be that simple: even if all you three were dead I'm afraid we'd not be ridden ourselvers of evil around. But using Gwath's dreams as aids to limit our choices toDay I think is a good idea. And the added limitation of taking Izzy's role for granted and thence her note on Nilp looks believable enough to guide me toDay. But that is toDay.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dury

I am inclined to go with Lari because I believe Nerwen's vote for Nienna on Day 3 speaks in her favour of her because Nienna was under quite a bit of suspicion (especially after wilwa being eliminated mid-day).

Interestingly enough the three of you - Nerwen, Izzy & Dury - were instrumental in getting Nienna lynched... You basically did that.

Durelin · 03-27-2009, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nog

The game ends when the number of ducks is equal or surpasses thew number of innocents - not the orther way around, dearie.

My point was that we have three days to lynch one or two remaining wolves if indeed everyone else except us three is a known innocent. But, they're not.

Nogrod · 03-27-2009, 05:58 PM

Okay.

Nerwen failed to vote on Day1.

On Day2 she missed the vote by a minute but the vote was counted - not that it had any bearing as Lommy was lynched with a great majority of votes.

On Day3 she really triggered the Niennawagon.

On Day4 she brought Rikae past Mac and level with Dury to two votes after which the ball started rolling (after my vote to Rikae, Rikae voted for herself and the rest is history).

Were she a duck, she would probably have been sharper in the first two Days - and less sharp in the two last ones.

And she has a planet-sized brain.

Nogrod · 03-27-2009, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Durelin

My point was that we have three days to lynch one or two remaining wolves if indeed everyone else except us three is a known innocent. But, they're not.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Me, in the post you just quoted

But not necessarily in a more serious note either. To be honest, I don't believe it would be that simple: even if all you three were dead I'm afraid we'd not be ridden ourselvers of evil around. But using Gwath's dreams as aids to limit our choices toDay I think is a good idea.

See?

Durelin · 03-27-2009, 06:26 PM

So I should have done this earlier but needed the time to explain myself fully. I did not find out that Kath was dead and the alpha-duck until the beginning of toDay and I unfortunately have been crazy busy...and was completely unorganized so had to go back through my PMs.

Right. So now that my role no longer has a job...

I am the "Wolf Tracker". Yes, sounds familiar, eh?

No, I am not like a seer (not another one). All I can know is how many wolves there are at a given time. Why would that be useful? Because the numbers in the flock were indeed changing.

On Day 1, there were 4 wolves.

On Day 2, the flock had grown to 5.

On Day 3, the flock was back down to 4, as Lommy was lynched and apparently the alpha-duck was not able to add to the flock (I believe because they either chose Gwath, Mith, Brinn, or the possibly remaining Hunter).

On Day 4 (yesterDay), the flock was down to 3 - they lost 2 during the Day but were back up the three by the end of the Night.

Last Night Kath was killed, and I was notified that the alpha-duck was dead, but apparently she still got her pick through because they are again at 3 toDay.

Yeah, I'm afraid we're not in *quite* as good a boat as we thought we were. But we do know who Gwath dreamt of each Night.

Night 0 - No duck added. Fea dreamt.
Night 1 - A duck added. Nogrod dreamt. Nog was not turned this Night as, since the Night events all happen simultaneously essentially because they all go through unless they cancel each other out, he would have shown up as a wolf if indeed he was turned this Night.
Night 2 - No duck was added. Mac was dreamt.
Night 3 - A duck added. Mith dreamt.
Night 4 - A duck added. Izzy seemed to suggest Nilp was dreamt? If so, then Nilp is the only guaranteed non-wolf, other than Izzy if she's telling the truth, and any remaining gifted(s).

*breathes* Sorry that took me too long!

Macalaure · 03-27-2009, 06:34 PM

That would mean the two ducks we're hunting are the two that were created in Night 3 and 4, which would make all prior dreams useless.

Looks like Fea and Nog are back on the menu, boys.

We can also start thinking about who would have made sense to be turned. Lari, for example, being under much scrutiny and having the role of Kath's scapegoat, looks pretty innocent now.

Macalaure · 03-27-2009, 06:38 PM

If we believe the claims of Izzy and Durelin, then our ducks are Fea, Nogrod, or Nerwen. Mith is a dreamt gifted. Izzy cleared Nilp. Lari is very unlikely.

My feeling says that Fea is the innocent one.

Durelin · 03-27-2009, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mac

Lari, for example, being under much scrutiny and having the role of Kath's scapegoat, looks pretty innocent now

Except she would make a good candidate last Night, if she was consistently suspected by Kath and Lommy, both wolves. Though that almost suggests Kath was aware she would be killed. Bah, I don't know.

Durelin · 03-27-2009, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mac

Looks like Fea and Nog are back on the menu, boys.

As are you...

Durelin · 03-27-2009, 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mac

That would mean the two ducks we're hunting are the two that were created in Night 3 and 4

And we're talking about 3 wolves, I'm afraid.

Durelin · 03-27-2009, 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Me

Though that almost suggests Kath was aware she would be killed.

Oh yeah. Gwath yesterDay was convinced she was a wolf, and others seemed to be disappointed they could not vote for her as well. So likely she did expect to be killed...at least toDay, not necessarily last Night.

Sorry, I'll stop spamming the thread now.

Nogrod · 03-27-2009, 07:04 PM

Oh my...

This is getting much too interesting at exactly the moment I thought I was ready for bed as I need to wake up early...

Darn timezones and Saturday exams!

So I'm not even starting the "why should we believe you as there seem to be a host of special goodies revealing in increasing intervals" -thing. Too late and too little time for it toDay. So looking at the details you Dury give, I'm going to buy it. It looks very believable indeed - like Izzy's case looked like.

Looks like a horrible scenario, four initial ducks and their numbers growing all the time if not hindered...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mac

Looks like Fea and Nog are back on the menu, boys.

And you Mac... and Mith as well.

So we went on with the hypothesis of trying to narrow things down toDay and ignore the "added ducks"-theory for a moment. Now who backed that plan or acted on it? Mac, you did. Fea did. Mith did. I did. No surprise there as we were the ones the count would leave out.

But three of them still around? From us nine?

Fea has had three Nights to be added to the ducklist, Mac and I have had two Nights, Mith has had one.

If Izzy (and therefore Nilp) are true, as well as Dury, it would lead to the three ducks being among us four added with Nerwen and Lari. So three out of six. 50-50 chance then...

Needs to think a bit.

EDIT: X'd with a host of posts.

Nerwen · 03-27-2009, 07:09 PM

*reads thread*

!!!

Durelin · 03-27-2009, 07:10 PM

Sorry Nog, I really didn't mean to keep you up...

Macalaure · 03-27-2009, 07:16 PM

The way Nogrod concludes that Nerwen's votes look innocent makes me think that they might be two of our wolves. Can't come up with much more now, but that's the way my gut tends. Therefore:

++Nogrod

Nogrod · 03-27-2009, 07:24 PM

Okay. The question now becomes was the "duck-breeder" able to turn anyone to her cause - or if it is as Dury said that she was not able to turn someone with a gift but only ordos or "neutrals" (whether there are such people around)?

That would look very bad on you Mac. Real bad. And if you're innocent, then Mith might be the one.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mac

Mith is a dreamt gifted.

Your slip here as you wish to get rid of me, Fea and Nerwen? But Mith is no dreamt gifted. She's a dreamt "no-duck". And looking at Rikae who told she could twist someone's Nightly deeds, isn't that exactly what Mith did that Night when she halted the ducks?

Gah! Just saw your vote Mac... Do I have to believe what I just speculated?

Feanor of the Peredhil · 03-27-2009, 07:24 PM

Nilp's role was decided? Since when?

Somebody help. Please.

Nerwen · 03-27-2009, 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So I'm not even starting the "why should we believe you as there seem to be a host of special goodies revealing in increasing intervals" -thing. Too late and too little time for it toDay. So looking at the details you Dury give, I'm going to buy it.

I also think she's telling the truth, because it makes sense, according to some things I know.

*is mysterious*

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Looks like a horrible scenario, four initial ducks and their numbers growing all the time if not hindered...

Kath's dead, though. Dury, will the flock get a new alpha duck toNight?

EDIT: X'd since last post.

Durelin · 03-27-2009, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nog

The question now becomes was the "duck-breeder" able to turn anyone to her cause - or if it is as Dury said that she was not able to turn someone with a gift but only ordos or "neutrals" (whether there are such people around)?

Yes, unfortunately I was only told how many wolves there were at the start of each Day, and at the start of toDay I only had the added knowledge that the alpha-wolf was now dead, suggesting that the number is now fixed.

Somehow Kath was not able to turn/create a new wolf on Night 2. Oh. Wow. The wolves also didn't manage to get a kill that night...perhaps that is connected? (Edit: Or whatever Mith's powers are, they are connected?)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Kath's dead, though. Dury, will the flock get a new alpha duck toNight?

I don't think so, simply because the fact that I was informed of the alpha-wolf's death would suggest that the numbers aren't going to change anymore. I'm not sure why else I would be told that. That also seems rather like a hopeless cause if they do...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fea

Nilp's role was decided? Since when?

Izzy claims to be the seer tracker, and that she was able to try and guess who the seer was. She seems to suggest she guessed Gwath correctly and thus learned of all his "past and future dreams", she said. And she claimed at the start of toDay that Nilp is not a were-creature...I guess she claims to know that because of the whole knowing Gwath's dreams thing.

Wow that's convoluted. Course that rather describes this whole game...

(Edit #2: Wow, I can't type...)

Nerwen · 03-27-2009, 07:37 PM

Oh dear. Now Mac's a baddie? Or just misled (Mac, you are wrong about Nogrod... or at least, wrong about him and me)

...oh, wait... think happy thoughts....

I mean... uh... YAY!!! YAY!!!! YAY FOR EVERYONE TURNING EVILLLLLL! IT'S SO EXCITING!!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Nilp's role was decided? Since when?

Somebody help. Please.

Izzy says this–

Quote:

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

I am a Seer/Dream Tracker.
Each Night I would submit a name to whom I thought the Seer would dream that Night. If I got it right, then I got the result of the Seer's Dream. I also had limited guesses as to whom the Seer was. If I guessed correctly whom the Seer was; then I would recieve all past and future dreams they submitted/received. If the Seer was to dream of me; then we would be able to PM each other at Night. Which is why I said I thought I knew what Rikae's role was. I even hinted as such. She was meant to stop the Seer from dreaming me. So the Seer and I could not contact each other.

So she implies she knows Nilp was dreamed as innocent (or non-duck, rather).

EDIT: X'd with Dury; chopped out rest of Izzy's post.

Feanor of the Peredhil · 03-27-2009, 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Durelin

all his "past and future dreams", she said. And she claimed at the start of toDay that Nilp is not a were-creature...I guess she claims to know that because of the whole knowing Gwath's dreams thing.

Until he dies, one assumes. Suggests that Nilp was dreamed last Night. Suggests role was revealed even with Gwath's death.

Could be. I suppose.

Lariren Shadow · 03-27-2009, 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Durelin

Except she would make a good candidate last Night, if she was consistently suspected by Kath and Lommy, both wolves. Though that almost suggests Kath was aware she would be killed. Bah, I don't know.

That would be great, if I could be made a wolf/duck, which I don't think I can. Because I'm the Hunter.

I haven't been around a lot because, well, I've been busy or just haven't had time or been utterly confused by this whole thing. I can't really say who I think looks innocent or guilty.

As for those who I seem to think of as slightly more guilty I'm going with Nerwen because, well, she is hiding something and I can't tell if its a good something or a bad something.

Mac is seeming slightly more innocent as well as Nog.

Durelin · 03-27-2009, 07:50 PM

Agh, sorry Lari...

But that makes us better informed toDay...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fea

Until he dies, one assumes.

That's what I would assume, too, but...

Feanor of the Peredhil · 03-27-2009, 07:53 PM

Knowing player is Not Duck only goes so far. Rikae was Not Duck.

Izzy should share all she Knows. Reveal your role, expect questions.

Details. All.

Too late to worry for safety of others.

Durelin · 03-27-2009, 08:26 PM

Mac actually bothers me slightly because of how quickly he jumped on my info to go straight after Nogrod. It seems he had to make a quick decision before leaving, though, so...

Those who Gwath dreamt of and revealed as innocent yesterDay are the most likely picks for the wolf that was turned last Night, but that leaves two other wolves that were either turned Night 1 and Night 3 or were wolves from the beginning, as the only deceased wolf whom we *know* was a wolf from the beginning was Kath.

I wonder if Nilp is coming back toDay? And I hope Izzy is so she can explain herself a bit better.

Edit: Wow, not that she will have much time to...

Feanor of the Peredhil · 03-27-2009, 08:28 PM

Waiting for last five minutes helps only Ducks.

++NERWEN

Nerwen · 03-27-2009, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Until he dies, one assumes. Suggests that Nilp was dreamed last Night. Suggests role was revealed even with Gwath's death.

Could be. I suppose.

Izzy did something last Night. I can tell you that much. I don't know what she is, though.

EDIT: X'd with Durelin and Fea.

Mnemosyne · 03-27-2009, 08:31 PM

Noggie, make your vote post within the next 10 minutes or so and go to bed. If you post on the thread after X:42 (whatever hour it is for you) you're automatically modfired (unless you X with me). Then GO TO BED.

Durelin · 03-27-2009, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fea

Waiting for last five minutes helps only Ducks.

Unless only the ducks wait till the last five minutes.

Edit: Oh dear, poor Nog! Yes, go to bed!

Feanor of the Peredhil · 03-27-2009, 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Durelin

Unless only the ducks wait till the last five minutes.

I have retraction left. Can be used. Trust my retraction, trust Izzy's. Trust Lari, though less. Everybody votes, we loiter.

Nerwen · 03-27-2009, 08:35 PM

*sigh*

I'd really prefer not to have to reveal now.

EDIT: X'd since last post.

Feanor of the Peredhil · 03-27-2009, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I'd really prefer not to have to reveal now.

Funny. I prefer you do.

03-27-2009, 04:34 PM	#1121
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,458	So what do we have left. Mac, Fea, Mithalwen, and Nogrod are innocent Gwath - Proved seer so no reaon to doubt. Issy has cleared Nilp... on the whole convinced of her claim. So that leaves Durelin, Lariren and Nerwen. Hmm well I voted for Lari day one but that was a random vote based on the manic early pages.... given my posting today pot..kettle I do find the Macanalysis interesting. Need ot just take a little look ..tbc __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

03-27-2009, 04:52 PM	#1122
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	A few notes from the voting this far. What Mac said about Kath's votes on Lari and keeping her known fellows safely on the "not suspecting" side. The determined defence of Lommy by the whole bunch on Day2. Three ducks voted for Gwath (Lommy, wilwa and Nienna). Also Lari votes Gwath - although in a situation where it looked pretty much certain Lommy would go anyway (and Kath votes Lari early on to the Day). On Day1 that tasteless Legatewagon should be revisited as well. It was - surprise, surprise - Nienna and wilwa who brought Legate even with... Dury and Lari and basically started the wagon. Brinn and Dury completed it then. Lari had voted earlier, giving Dury her first vote that Day. It has been indeed the last three Days that Lari has voted quite late and against the majorwagons; on D2 against Lommywagon, on D3 against Niennawagon and on D4 against Rikaewagon. And all those we have lynched those Days have been baddies (well Rikae only a cobbler). Uh-oh... this is comlicated and messy... Back with some added thoughts in a minute. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

03-27-2009, 05:03 PM	#1123
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,458	Voted late Nogrod? She must be a duck then __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

03-27-2009, 05:15 PM	#1124
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,458	Nine people, four seer proved innocents, maybe 6. But at least 2 ducks and not clear if Gwath saw exact role rather than non-duck. There is another killer out there who may be working on own account. Also given that we had a guardian amd seer as well as misc. other roles, chances are there is also the other of the classic gifted trio - a hunter. Now if so and the hunter is non-logical or lynched... then we may not have so much scope for getting today wrong despite our success to date. I am inclined to not vote Lari due to Mac's analysis ... so that leaves me more or less with a coin toss.... I will be consistent: ++Durelin __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

03-27-2009, 05:24 PM	#1125
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Durelin's vote-record (and a few comments on Lari as side offers as they kind of presented themselves here): D1: Last vote to Legate two minutes before the DL, sealing the result which was basically clear already. She could have voted anyone there unless someone who did not vote would have turned in at the last minute - in that situation she could have gotten Lari (or herself ) lynched as well. D2: Gives Lommy her seventh vote. Mathematically it's a kind of crucial vote there even if it sure looked like Lommy was getting the axe there... But had the rest gone the other way she could have tried to save Lommy. After her vote there was no turning back. Interesting thing here is that the next vote - Lari voting Gwath - is a crosspost (same minute) and it could be seen as trying to help Lommy there. D3: Brings Nienna to the lead in the end of the Day and gives her the killing blow. Again, Lari goes the opposite direction by voting Mith, bringing her one vote short. D4: Basically secured Rikae's death. Not that the chances of anyone else to die would have been great at that point but still. Lari by contrast gives her vote to Dury two minutes before the DL. So Dury seems to be wherever the decisive votes are being given and her track record is pretty impressive: three baddies from four votes (and the one she was wrong with was Day1). On the opposite there is Lari who has managed to vote against every succesful lynchwagon. So very different candidates here. I'll go and look at Nerwen's record as well... __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

03-27-2009, 05:29 PM	#1126
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Oh Mith. Had you seen what I found you might have rethought you vote in the light of what these two - Lari and Dury - have been doing and not just tossed a coin... Although I must admit Dury's track record is almost frighteningly consistent! (even if it's "going with the flow" most of the time) __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

03-27-2009, 05:36 PM	#1127
Durelin Estelo dagnir, Melo ring Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,063	I am not sure what to think of Izzy's claim. The detail of her claim is convincing, but... How do you know what Nilp is...? If we've apparently narrowed it down to myself, Nerwen, and Lari, I am inclined to go with Lari because I believe Nerwen's vote for Nienna on Day 3 speaks in her favour of her because Nienna was under quite a bit of suspicion (especially after wilwa being eliminated mid-day). But then Kath's consistency Day 2 and 3 against Lari is a problem. Both times she voted early, giving Lari her first vote. A question, though...if indeed everyone is specifically a "known" innocent except for myself, Lari, and Nerwen, and there are 9 of us left (?)...isn't this game over...unless there is in fact a growing flock?

03-27-2009, 05:58 PM	#1131
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Okay. Nerwen failed to vote on Day1. On Day2 she missed the vote by a minute but the vote was counted - not that it had any bearing as Lommy was lynched with a great majority of votes. On Day3 she really triggered the Niennawagon. On Day4 she brought Rikae past Mac and level with Dury to two votes after which the ball started rolling (after my vote to Rikae, Rikae voted for herself and the rest is history). Were she a duck, she would probably have been sharper in the first two Days - and less sharp in the two last ones. And she has a planet-sized brain. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

03-27-2009, 06:26 PM	#1133
Durelin Estelo dagnir, Melo ring Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,063	So I should have done this earlier but needed the time to explain myself fully. I did not find out that Kath was dead and the alpha-duck until the beginning of toDay and I unfortunately have been crazy busy...and was completely unorganized so had to go back through my PMs. Right. So now that my role no longer has a job... I am the "Wolf Tracker". Yes, sounds familiar, eh? No, I am not like a seer (not another one). All I can know is how many wolves there are at a given time. Why would that be useful? Because the numbers in the flock were indeed changing. On Day 1, there were 4 wolves. On Day 2, the flock had grown to 5. On Day 3, the flock was back down to 4, as Lommy was lynched and apparently the alpha-duck was not able to add to the flock (I believe because they either chose Gwath, Mith, Brinn, or the possibly remaining Hunter). On Day 4 (yesterDay), the flock was down to 3 - they lost 2 during the Day but were back up the three by the end of the Night. Last Night Kath was killed, and I was notified that the alpha-duck was dead, but apparently she still got her pick through because they are again at 3 toDay. Yeah, I'm afraid we're not in quite as good a boat as we thought we were. But we do know who Gwath dreamt of each Night. Night 0 - No duck added. Fea dreamt. Night 1 - A duck added. Nogrod dreamt. Nog was not turned this Night as, since the Night events all happen simultaneously essentially because they all go through unless they cancel each other out, he would have shown up as a wolf if indeed he was turned this Night. Night 2 - No duck was added. Mac was dreamt. Night 3 - A duck added. Mith dreamt. Night 4 - A duck added. Izzy seemed to suggest Nilp was dreamt? If so, then Nilp is the only guaranteed non-wolf, other than Izzy if she's telling the truth, and any remaining gifted(s). breathes Sorry that took me too long!

03-27-2009, 06:34 PM	#1134
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	That would mean the two ducks we're hunting are the two that were created in Night 3 and 4, which would make all prior dreams useless. Looks like Fea and Nog are back on the menu, boys. We can also start thinking about who would have made sense to be turned. Lari, for example, being under much scrutiny and having the role of Kath's scapegoat, looks pretty innocent now.

03-27-2009, 06:38 PM	#1135
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	If we believe the claims of Izzy and Durelin, then our ducks are Fea, Nogrod, or Nerwen. Mith is a dreamt gifted. Izzy cleared Nilp. Lari is very unlikely. My feeling says that Fea is the innocent one.

03-27-2009, 07:09 PM	#1141
Nerwen Wisest of the Noldor Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: ˙˙˙ssɐןƃ ƃuıʞooן ǝɥʇ ɥƃnoɹɥʇ Posts: 6,694	reads thread !!! __________________ "Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo.

03-27-2009, 07:10 PM	#1142
Durelin Estelo dagnir, Melo ring Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,063	Sorry Nog, I really didn't mean to keep you up...

03-27-2009, 07:16 PM	#1143
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	The way Nogrod concludes that Nerwen's votes look innocent makes me think that they might be two of our wolves. Can't come up with much more now, but that's the way my gut tends. Therefore: ++Nogrod

03-27-2009, 07:24 PM	#1145
Feanor of the Peredhil La Belle Dame sans Merci Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: perpetual uncertainty Posts: 5,517	Nilp's role was decided? Since when? Somebody help. Please. __________________ peace

03-27-2009, 07:53 PM	#1152
Feanor of the Peredhil La Belle Dame sans Merci Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: perpetual uncertainty Posts: 5,517	Knowing player is Not Duck only goes so far. Rikae was Not Duck. Izzy should share all she Knows. Reveal your role, expect questions. Details. All. Too late to worry for safety of others. __________________ peace

03-27-2009, 08:26 PM	#1153
Durelin Estelo dagnir, Melo ring Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,063	Mac actually bothers me slightly because of how quickly he jumped on my info to go straight after Nogrod. It seems he had to make a quick decision before leaving, though, so... Those who Gwath dreamt of and revealed as innocent yesterDay are the most likely picks for the wolf that was turned last Night, but that leaves two other wolves that were either turned Night 1 and Night 3 or were wolves from the beginning, as the only deceased wolf whom we know was a wolf from the beginning was Kath. I wonder if Nilp is coming back toDay? And I hope Izzy is so she can explain herself a bit better. Edit: Wow, not that she will have much time to...

03-27-2009, 08:28 PM	#1154
Feanor of the Peredhil La Belle Dame sans Merci Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: perpetual uncertainty Posts: 5,517	Waiting for last five minutes helps only Ducks. ++NERWEN __________________ peace

03-27-2009, 08:31 PM	#1156
Mnemosyne Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Between the past and the future Posts: 1,159	Noggie, make your vote post within the next 10 minutes or so and go to bed. If you post on the thread after X:42 (whatever hour it is for you) you're automatically modfired (unless you X with me). Then GO TO BED. __________________ Got corsets?

03-27-2009, 08:35 PM	#1159
Nerwen Wisest of the Noldor Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: ˙˙˙ssɐןƃ ƃuıʞooן ǝɥʇ ɥƃnoɹɥʇ Posts: 6,694	sigh I'd really prefer not to have to reveal now. EDIT: X'd since last post. __________________ "Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo.