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12-11-2009, 03:55 PM | #1041 | |
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Alright. First off, I apologize for the first thing I said today. Believe it or not, I meant it to come out jokingly, and it didn't turn out that way. I didn't mean to insult anyone, and I'm sorry. Secondly, I'm making such a big deal out of the way Lottie's lynch went down because I know there are people who act just like that when they're evil. Phantom is one. Thirdly, the "words" I'm talking about are when you said I want to lynch people because I'm mad. Not true. Edit: X'ed with Sally.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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12-11-2009, 03:55 PM | #1042 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I said it was a reasonable suspicion yesterDay as the role had been of that kind earlier (and btw. again, only the wolves knew yesterDay that was not the case this time around). Heh, I think I see what you mean though; I seem to be missing quotation marks or a comma from there, or missing a word from there... Quote:
I wonder why you think it important enough to comment on? Why would I make such an obviously false statement like that?
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12-11-2009, 03:57 PM | #1043 | |
Laconic Loreman
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You were right about Lottie, I was wrong. Let's leave it at that.
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12-11-2009, 03:58 PM | #1044 | |
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Quote:
Edit: X'ed with Boro.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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12-11-2009, 03:59 PM | #1045 | |
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Now, after all that, I still think you're a wolf.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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12-11-2009, 04:01 PM | #1046 | |
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Am I right?
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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12-11-2009, 04:03 PM | #1047 |
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The problem with that plan, though, is that if the Hunter doesn't have a wolf on their list, then we're down two innocents even before the lynch. Can we afford to lose three innocents today? We're at eight people and two wolves now... with a possible four innocent deaths, that's a wolf win.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
12-11-2009, 04:07 PM | #1048 | |
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Three scenarios: Ordo reveals as hunter. We lynch them because they're silly (this is NOT the Day to go for that rash of a plan, not when this can be so perfectly orchestrated) and we get nothing. Wolf reveals as hunter. We lynch them and we have a wolf. Hunter reveals as hunter. They tell us their list and we lynch them accordingly, then we'll know either a wolf or an innocent (although keep in mind we could lose an ordo this way along with the hunter) and we'll be in a lot better shape (though granted down a hunter as well). Of course we'll also learn a lot about people's leanings based on this plan and their adherence to it. We can't lose. Now we just need our hunter to come out. You know who you are, we do not. Do as you see fit; if there is no reveal toDay I say we agree as much as possible on our top two lynch candidates, lynch (rather sacrifice) one, then use that information to see what to do with the other. Thoughts?
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12-11-2009, 04:09 PM | #1049 | |
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12-11-2009, 04:16 PM | #1050 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Hmm... I'm a bit confused over the speculation as I can't see the sense there... Let's make a quick eyeing on the rules first...
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With a rivalling call we'd need to be careful as lynching the wrong one would once again make the possibility of an extra innocent dying possible. Although to be honest, if a hunter doesn't get it right having three chances out of six possibilities, then it's a bit bad hunting... But anyway, it's for the hunter (and ranger - they can talk, wasn't it so?) to decide. EDIT: X'd with Sally... and needs to rethink the scenario she gives...
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12-11-2009, 04:19 PM | #1051 | |
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Not to be rude, but a living hunter is a useless hunter. Whether or not they have their picks right we'll learn something. In fact we can advise them on how to pick if we want, though of course it is their choice in the end. I'd at least be willing to give it a shot, assuming they do indeed decide to come out. It'd teach us a lot about the alignment of people, based on how they reacted to lynching the hunter once they discovered their list, etc. The only way to find out is to try? EDIT: Didn't realize Nogrod had x'd with me, so I'll let him think it over before I respond further.
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12-11-2009, 04:21 PM | #1052 | |
Werewolf Psychic
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Hunter is sacrificed. Hunter has no wolf on their list - Hunter and innocent die. Innocent is lynched. Innocent is wolf-killed. Score is 2-2. Wolves win. Now, we'd have to be extremely wrong for that to happen, that's the worst case scenario. But it's a possibility. Edit: X'ed with Sally.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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12-11-2009, 04:22 PM | #1053 | |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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But yes, I see your point. If this goes wrong it's End Game, but if it goes right we could end this toDay as well. And as Nog pointed out, if our hunter has both of their picks wrong then the wolves are very clever and as much as I wouldn't like it they deserve to win. Where's everyone else by the way?
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12-11-2009, 04:25 PM | #1054 |
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Also, to play Devil's Advocate (Hi, I'm Nogrod, nice to meet you ), a Hunter that dies via wolf-kill is much more useful than a Hunter who dies via lynch. There's no chance of an innocent dying, there's the obvious waste of a wolf-kill, and in our situation taking a wolf with them is the absolute worst-case scenario for a Hunter who is nightkilled. Look -
Scenario A. Hunter is killed. First person on Hunter's list is a wolf - that wolf dies. We're down a wolf. Scenario B. Hunter is killed. Second person on Hunter's list is a wolf - that wolf dies. We're down a wolf, AND up a cleared innocent (because the first person on the Hunter's list can't be a wolf, otherwise they'd have died first). Scenario C. Hunter is killed. Hunter has no wolves on their list. Hunter dies, but we're up TWO cleared innocents in exchange. Edit: X'ed with Sally.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
12-11-2009, 04:28 PM | #1055 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Just a minute!
So what you Sally are saying is that the hunter might come forwards and say "heres my three suspects: A, B and C. Now lynch me"? Let me speculate first with just one lynch to make it easier to count... So we lynch the hunter and if s/he has a wolf there s/he takes the wolf down and only one wolf is left. Great job! But if s/he hasn't a wolf on the list, s/he will take one innocent with her/him from the list, but we will know then the two others are innocents. Now the ranger can save the one the wolves would try to kill or not, that would be 50-50. But also we would know that two out of four (those not on her/his list) would be the wolves. Needs to think more... with the help of a lung-destroyer... EDit: X'd with all the last speculations...
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12-11-2009, 04:30 PM | #1056 | |
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12-11-2009, 04:30 PM | #1057 | |
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Quote:
Edit: X'ed with Sally.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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12-11-2009, 04:32 PM | #1058 |
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Which, if we'd remembered this yesterday, would mean Lottie would still be alive.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
12-11-2009, 04:39 PM | #1059 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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You're right Sally & Shasta... The rules say the maximum number of wolves alive.
Quote:
Anyway. I will be recounting the scenarios...
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12-11-2009, 04:46 PM | #1060 |
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Sorry, but I have to go. I've loaded up all the pages and will look things over while I'm away tonight but will have no internet (or at least I don't think I will) for eight hours or so. I'll see you all when I get back. Don't do anything stupid.
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12-11-2009, 04:51 PM | #1061 |
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If we'd remembered that the Hunter's list consisted of the number of wolves alive, they could have revealed to save Lottie. Remember, your theory rested on the fact that Lottie was a wolf, meaning there would have been three wolves alive. The Hunter could simply have said how many people they were allowed to put on their list at the time to know whether your theory was valid or not.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
12-11-2009, 04:58 PM | #1062 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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So we are 8 players alive (and with just one lynch considered to make it easier).
4 ordos (who don't know each other or anyone) 2 gifteds (who know each other) 2 wolves (who know each other) The hunter comes forwards and gives us a list of two, A and B. We lynch the hunter... Then hunter dies and takes someone with her (I'll use the feminine here so that I don't have to make that "her/him" stuff everytime I refer to the hunter). As she knows the ranger she has a go for 2 from 6 aka. 1/3 chance of getting it right. If she gets it right with either of her suspects we will be on 5 against 1 facing the Night with one known innocent the ranger can protect. So on the next Day we'll have 4 against 1 with one known innocent in our middle - so every innocent would have a 50% chance (one of two) to vote for the wolf. Very good! If she doesn't get it right, she will take one innocent with her and we'll face the Night with 4 against 2. The ranger would save the known innocent so we would arise to a new Day with 3 against 2 with one known innocent. Leaving the innocents with 2 from 3 to vote (as they know themselves to be innocents)! Good, good! That of course if the ranger is up to her/his tasks - which I hope we can count on. It looks too good to be true. If I'm not wrong with this. Please check my calculations (I'll double check them myself as well). But it also it should be thought what would happen if we did not lynch the revealed hunter but just narrowed our scope of voting toDay - although I think the wolves would be suicidal trying to kill the hunter during the Night. Or what should we do in case of a counter reveal? Do we have time to check one out with 50-50 chances? I mean if that contest is too tight, should a reasonable hunter stay hidden after all? Goes to count again... Quote:
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... Last edited by Nogrod; 12-11-2009 at 05:04 PM. Reason: Corrected a double denial that twisted the meaning... about counting on the ranger... |
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12-11-2009, 05:02 PM | #1063 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Okay, the first amendment already.
If the hunter gets her suspect A right, we can't know if her suspect B is a wolf or not, so no known innocent there. In case the hunter picks both wrong we have a known innocent on the next Day.
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12-11-2009, 05:10 PM | #1064 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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An add-on to the amendment I made...
If it is suspect A for the hunter who is a wolf then we have no known innocent, but if it is B, then we have one (as A is then not a wolf?). Am I reading the rules right Legate? The rules suggest there is a hierarchy in the hunter's list...
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12-11-2009, 05:14 PM | #1065 |
Laconic Loreman
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This must be what hell is frozen over. Spare me from it. I'm drained from thinking and fighting.
++Sacrifice Boro ++Lynch Boro Have your pick.
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12-11-2009, 05:20 PM | #1066 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Well that was an interesting move Boro...
Hard to see an innocent doing that. But why on earth don't you make it a fight? You'd have your chances were you a wolf... If there was a cobbler around I'd bet my inheritance (little that there is) for Boro being one.
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12-11-2009, 05:28 PM | #1067 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Oh Boro, I might see that... maybe you try to sacrifice yourself for the other wolf so that we wouldn't have a reveal of two suspects? That way we'd need to pick the last one quite blindly as the chances for the hunter-reveal would go a lot smaller with only one wolf left (only one pick for her).
So would you be that confident about your mate that s/he is so safe from suspicion right now that this gambling is the better deal for you than checking whether the hunter can pick you guys up?
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12-11-2009, 05:32 PM | #1068 |
Laconic Loreman
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I'm doing whatever it takes to prove I'm innocent. Saying I'm innocent won't do it, so I figured throwing my hands up and saying I'm done will. Do whatever you want, you obviously don't need my help, and I can't give it anymore.
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12-11-2009, 05:47 PM | #1069 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Heh, one scenario for the hunter to entertain herself with...
Pick anyone you feel as your target A and then Boro as your target B. Then come open and we'll lynch you. If A is killed by you as a wolf, we'll lynch Boro the next Day and win. If A is not killed by you but Boro is killed, then the ranger will safeguard A the next Night and we have a known innocent with us tomorrow with a situation of 4-1 (meaning that every innocent knows her/himself + the known innocent = there are two innocents and one wolf for every innocent to choose from). If we miss it then, it will be two against one on the last Day... Any ranger-gambles etc. might change the picture of course. But looking back... as odd... well as reasonable... as it seems... Boro's coming into the open is actually a good move for a wolf. The risk of us getting them both pinned down with hunter's list of two was probably a too heavy weapon... and he realised that? So should we just lynch / sacrifice Boro and be happy with it or should we think the other scenarios? It's getting late here but I will see if I can come up with other, better scenarios before I go to sleep... Oh Boro posted... Quote:
- You don't think you "prove" yourself innocent by voting yourself. - You don't give up if you're innocent. - You have better self-esteem & understanding of the number of votes left to understand that as an innocent we'd need you. So sorry. I'm not buying that.
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12-11-2009, 06:33 PM | #1070 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Sorry about flooding the thread but this will be the last from me for now...
I think we should just sacrifice Boro and not lynch anyone (and the hunter should stay hidden). That way we get rid of one wolf (see my earlier post for reasons why it is so). So on the next Day we have probably 5-1 situation (or in the best case a 6-1), and possibly ranger and hunter able to secure each other as there are two of them while a lonely wolf can't cheat anymore. Or if the last wolf hits the hunter at Night there is a good possibility the hunter takes her/him down as she goes (and there is no threat to innocents if the wolf hits the hunter at Night). Day or Night, it's the hunter-time now! The other possible scenario would be that we sacrifice Boro and then lynch the hunter with her two suspects on board... but I guess we would need further guidance from our mod here as to how the rules apply. If Boro is sacrificed does that mean that it is counted as an act that is done before the lynch thus taking away the second suspect from the hunter's list and leaving her only one target? If it is like that we should probably sacrifice the hunter ("first") and lynch Boro so that we might be able to wrestle the known innocent for toMorrow... but it would mean that we'd lose the possible back-up for the joint gifted's reveal toMorrow, it would mean one more lost innocent (or an immediate victory to be sure), it would mean in the worst scenario a serious crippling of the innocent side. So for the time being I would suggest we just sacrifice Boro and vote for "no lynch". That's a safer way to go offering us the best returns in comparison with the odds we face with other options (which are not bad either - leaving out nightmare scenarios). I'll be back with fresher thoughts tomorrow and hopefully able to pay heed to your comments as well. I'm not too sure I'm right here - yesterDay kind of looms over my head still - but the way Boro acted screams a wolf to me. Anyway we do not have an "Ordo-Boro", nor a gifted one. So a wolf or yet one more secret role... but not for the good I'd say.
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12-11-2009, 11:13 PM | #1071 | |||
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You all smell
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I can see this turning out one of two ways. A: "Oh, my sweet Westley! What have I done?" Boro's innocent and we're certainly down one because the wolves'll jump right no and the rest of us will doubt his intentions and lynch him. A certain disaster. B: "Are you mad? You were not hired for your brains...." Boro's a very bold wolf who's bluffing and counting on us not wanting to lynch someone who volunteers to be lynched. We can fall for it and lynch someone else or we can lynch him, which gets us a wolf. But I'm not sure Boro!wolf would do this at this stage. Quote:
*This is assuming we lynch Boro and he is telling the truth
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12-11-2009, 11:21 PM | #1072 |
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I'm confused do the rules state a sacrificed hunter would take someone out... doesn't it only work if they're nightkilled?...
anywho I'm tired exhausted really won't be on before DL I'll follow Boro's lead... ++Boro ++Boro
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12-11-2009, 11:25 PM | #1073 | ||||
Wisest of the Noldor
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EDIT:X'd with Sally and Morsul.
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12-11-2009, 11:29 PM | #1074 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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Actually, that's an interesting thought.
Legate, does the sacrifice work the same way as a lynch for the hunter? (Also, if the hunter is Day killed they can still take a wolf. The only difference is that if a hunter dies at Night and has no wolves on their list they die alone and if they die by lynch and have no wolves on their list they take the first innocent on their list.)
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12-11-2009, 11:31 PM | #1075 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Quote:
EDIT:X'd with Sally.
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12-11-2009, 11:33 PM | #1076 |
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just reread the rules ok that's cleared up...
Thanks Nerwen
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12-11-2009, 11:35 PM | #1077 |
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1/8 getting a huner... 1/3 they get a wolf..... 1/24 plan works just over 4%
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12-11-2009, 11:39 PM | #1078 | |
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If you don't like the plan, that's fine. I'm just suggesting it, and talking about the logistics of it is just taking up time. Agree or disagree to go along with it but otherwise get on with other discussions.
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12-11-2009, 11:40 PM | #1079 | |
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I don't know how much longer I'll be on tonight. To be honest I feel incredibly crappy, so I'll likely succumb to sleep soon.
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12-12-2009, 12:13 AM | #1080 |
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New suspect - Morsul. Following Boro's self vote, or jumping on it? Why?
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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