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03-25-2009, 06:22 AM | #881 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Watching/wondering.
Problem is, if duck flock expands, anything village used to know doesn't matter.
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03-25-2009, 06:29 AM | #882 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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On second thought.
--Macalaure Insanity runs in the family. It practically gallops.
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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03-25-2009, 06:33 AM | #883 |
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
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03-25-2009, 07:50 AM | #884 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Problem is, losing Ranger means loss of safety net. Gifteds with knowledge reveal, gifteds die and innocents die. Not all at once, but one by one. No hope. Gifteds a little more hesitant to divulge information, when a little silence gives opportunity to find out more before certain death. You see?
Ranger dying weighs prudence of open talk. Concept of chatter found wanting. Obviously ducks don't see seer, or seer dies. Good news. Take advantage. Leave hints. Don't talk. No Brinniel to help your cause. Hard to focus when, ideally, the Day is spent looking away from.
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03-25-2009, 07:52 AM | #885 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Also, with potential expanding flock, knowledge gleaned by non-ducks might prove outdated. Say dream happens Night One, change happens Night Two. Knowledge gone. No certainty. Sally rules with rubber fist.
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03-25-2009, 08:03 AM | #886 | ||
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Quote:
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The Ranger being dead is not good. If anything it will make what other gifteds we have more likely to not revel now. Such as if the Seer knew how many other wolves/ducks there are and knew who they were. And that senario works if there is more than two more ducks/wolves. I'm tending to be leaning towards the confused end of things. I know I don't like what Nilp is doing but I can't think of why he would...no I can actually. I just realized why Nilp would want to die, but he would have to be sure of something.
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03-25-2009, 08:03 AM | #887 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Still concerned about Nilp.
No longer concerned about Rikae. Never really was. Willing to watch her work. Could be cobbler, of course. Always an option. One never knows for sure. Wondering much about Mith. Still alive? Thought of her last night. Stopped thinking, assuming death. Save effort by nothing worrying about lost cause. Except: still alive. Worrisome. Nog still skin-toned to me. Not right, necessarily, but reasonable. No longer sure of Lari. Never was sure, just guessed. Not sure at all. Concerned. Always concerned. Durelin. Getting to point of narrowing down options. Right only because other is wrong. Effective, but unsatisfying. Durelin eludes me. Always does. Would vote Nerwen. Days pass, more concerned. But perhaps just attributable to lols. I do not lol. Would vote Izzy. Less certainty even than Nerwen. Gwath still ochre. Very, very ochre. Would vote Gwath. If all were ducks, game would end. Not all ducks. But enough? Wish I knew how many ducks. Or non-duck evils. Kath and Mac. No lols, only headdesks. Wish I had a lol.
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03-25-2009, 08:04 AM | #888 | |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Quote:
No certainty, but definitely, "Except-"
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03-25-2009, 08:34 AM | #889 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I do agree that we have been stupendously succesful of late. That success could be explained more easily if we had a host of ducks around - so our great killing-rate might be telling us more of our doom... and thinking about it now, would Sally make a game where the ducks wouldn't win?
But I find it really hard to believe in the Fibonacci Sequence stuff. That would be totally inbalanced for if the ducks ever reached five the game would be practically over and depending on the initial number of ducks that could be really soon. How to get rid of five "Fibonacci-ducks" in a village of twelve? Lynch one toDay; ducks down to four (no increase the next Night) - theoretically may require six correctly placed innocent votes out of seven existing (and the role of the cobblers here?) - anyway: even if the ducks don't make a mass vote you can see the chances we have here as all the inocents should really come together in the voting. (It's indeed intersting - looking it from this angle - that the ducks actually voted as a team on Day2! So they knew they could afford it?) Back to the scenario. One innocent dies the next Night so toMorrow we have four ducks and six non-ducks. Could take five innocent votes out of six possible. The problem: a successful lynch brings the number of ducks down to three which means there would be five the next Day - against three innocents. Game over. Failing tomorrow would make the same result with four against four the next Morning. Moreover, a double-kill toDay would make them five toMorrow - against five. Game over. So let's hope they are not five... If they are three now, they will be five toMorrow - game over as well. So we're at these dire straits even if we have performed extremely well - three Days & three ducks killed. If the Fibonacci Sequence is the way the ducks go we'll just have to cross our fingers and hope for our specials to rescue us. Let's not lose hope. And really it was Nilp who made the Fibonacci-hint...
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03-25-2009, 08:36 AM | #890 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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++NILP
My mind is willing to be changed.
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03-25-2009, 09:06 AM | #891 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I hope you change your mind Fea as I'm willing to declare Nilp a cobbler. See how he is distracting our heads and successfully barring any real discussion - myself the foremost - as I seem to not be able to think of anything else now but different Fibonacci-scenarios...
And anyway the way he begs to be lynched doesn't feel right. If he's the phantom's aprrentice's "dark side" we probably really should avoid lynching him. The good-killer role was triggered by a Night-killing attempt so the bad-killer role should be triggered by a lynch. So Nilp is a cobbler or a demonical killler waiting to be triggered by our attempt to kill him. In both cases lynching him would be a bad idea. I may be wrong though but I'm not sure I'm ready to suggest taking the risk of finding it out.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
03-25-2009, 09:14 AM | #892 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Okay.
--NILP Fair argument. So my not-votes are, Me, Nog, Rikae, Nilp. Nog... Mith? Worrisome. No idea what to think.
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03-25-2009, 09:21 AM | #893 |
Shade with a Blade
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Suspicious
Rikae - Cobblerish for sure Nilp - Duck impersonating a cobbler? That's my guess, anyway Kath - Duckish Less Suspicious Nerwen - A duck would have been more careful with her votes on Days 1 and 2 Lariren - Not as sure about Lariren, could be a wereduck who's been lying low Durelin - Her vote was instrumental in lynching Nienna; may have been a duck-on-duck, but I think not Izzy - I'm not sure, but she feels innocent to me Least Suspicious Mith - Phantom's apprentice, I think. Why else would she still be alive? Nogrod Fea Mac
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03-25-2009, 09:29 AM | #894 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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That's a good question. Maybe the ducks know things we don't - like Mith can't be killed by Night any more as she is Gandalf the White, the flashing light; or if they learned about Brinn being the ranger and made killing her their priority as they would have basically free kills after that (unless there are more very-very-special roles on the good side); or something?
I do think the evidence points heavily towards Mith being the phantom's apprentice and it's hard for me to see her role being other than benevolent (add there also all those Gandalf-hints in the narration). I'll need to go now but I will come back after a few hours for another sit with this game.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
03-25-2009, 10:12 AM | #895 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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Seriously.
Fine. My burning house/pitcher of water analogy still stands, now I know why you won't do the obvious thing--you're thinking of buying a fire extinguisher. I can't believe this village . . .
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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03-25-2009, 10:14 AM | #896 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
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Clever boy, Bubbles. Teeheehee....
But you know, what'ever Mith is, we have to get rid of her. That's becoming increasingly obvious. Do we have enough votes to do it? How openly can we speak? As an alternative, we could always lynch Nogrod. |
03-25-2009, 10:28 AM | #897 | |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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We oughtn't to.
Quote:
No, I am not the seer; seer don't come forth. No, I am not the hunter; hunter, don't come forth. No, I can't actually kill myself; I can, however, take advantage of my Mod-given talents. Please don't ask me to explain. I'm not at all sure that my short leash allows such open communication from me, eh, Sally? I'm not even sure this post won't get me modfired... --- Ahem. I mean- Be prudent. Think twice, good team. Game not over yet.
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03-25-2009, 10:31 AM | #898 | ||||
Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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Quote:
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Maybe they did think/know that they couldn't kill her. I don't know. And I wonder why some people seem to. Quote:
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A possibility is that he is actually a day hunter (will be able to hunt the person of his choice when he is lynched). The question is if he is on our side or not. He does still seem to be claiming here and there that he is the phantom's apprentice, though. Really I would not mind getting rid of Nilp or Rikae because I'm not sure if we can remain sane with both of them around. Lari seems the most straight-forwardly wolfish to me in her cautious behavior and her voting record. This is hardly a straight-forward game but I'm not sure what else to go on. Nogrod is just naturally starting to bother me, I'm afraid. Really I am all for lynching him and Mac for taking the fibonacci sequence thing and running with it...especially since you then declare in your next post, Nog, that Nilp is probably just a cobbler. I'm not sure why Fea chose to use her retraction so quickly. Boredom, I guess? Really need to go do some work...argh. Edit: crossed with Nilp, Rikae, Fea |
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03-25-2009, 10:34 AM | #899 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
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Fea, I guess that's two of us at the stake ere NIGHTfall.
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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03-25-2009, 10:35 AM | #900 |
Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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How many people do we have claiming to be some sort of suicide-bomber now?
Seriously. Work. Bleh. |
03-25-2009, 10:39 AM | #901 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
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Oh, something just occurred to me about Mith "delivering ducks" ....
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03-25-2009, 10:39 AM | #902 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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More like a specially focused ninja assassin, if you want to be particularly specific about metaphors... Rather more subtle than suicide-bombing. And rather more useful, when you get right down to it.
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03-25-2009, 10:44 AM | #903 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
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I think I know who all the ducks in the village at this moment are. Lot of good it does the village, though.
*keeps mouth shut* |
03-25-2009, 10:46 AM | #904 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
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M mom and I were just discussing psychiatrists, and she said "oh, I think they're all quacks".
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03-25-2009, 10:57 AM | #905 | |
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
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Quote:
It seems to me that Rikae, Mith, Fea, and Nilp are really playing their own game. I don't know what they're about and I'm not going to vote for either. I'll stay with regular people who claim to be ordos. I was successful twice this way already. Right now, I'm leaning towards voting Kath, but the day is still fairly young. |
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03-25-2009, 11:35 AM | #906 | ||
Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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Quote:
Quote:
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03-25-2009, 11:46 AM | #907 | |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
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Quote:
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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03-25-2009, 12:01 PM | #908 |
Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
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I am if I am lynched... I was going all out for the village but maybe now it isn't about good an evil, it is about who is nice to me....
Talk about killing the goose that lays the golden eggs...
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03-25-2009, 01:01 PM | #909 | |
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
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Quote:
In any case, they will soon be fewer. Given some time, and maybe more info, we will be better able to tell who (of the remaining) is what. In any case they're not all evil, and I'd rather not lynch a gifted. You people clearly post too much! How is one supposed to keep up with reading? |
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03-25-2009, 01:04 PM | #910 |
Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
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Ooh that shut them up....
Well I shall talk to myself. Observations. Fea is being restrained. This is a clear indication that she is responsible for something or too something. As an ordo she gets terribly bored and is absolutely no holds barred. I don't think as an ordo she would be so concerned with what ever restriction she is under.
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
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03-25-2009, 01:05 PM | #911 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
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'The Bomb.'
I'm not suited for this. Maybe I'll just sic Adam on you tomorrow.
Anyway, let's do more lists:
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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03-25-2009, 01:06 PM | #912 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
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Hm. Those ducks weren't lynched because of Mith, but because they were obviously ducks. Well, I thought Lommy might be the seer momentarily, but then Nienna made a comment that made it clear they were both in the "flock" together. I'm sure I'm not the only one who noticed that.
So if Mith is "delivering" ducks, she's doing so in a way we don't want. Either she's part of a growing flock, throwing the others to the village to make herself look good, or she is actually causing the flock to grow somehow. Therefore: ++Macalaure |
03-25-2009, 01:08 PM | #913 |
Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
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Noggin is quiet - especially since he has no competition ... I bet he has a daily quota of posts LOL. Not sure there are many others in compatible time zones.... Kath of course ... but that is it for this hemisphere and side of the pond as far as I know....
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
03-25-2009, 01:10 PM | #914 | |
Pilgrim Soul
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Quote:
don't suppose you would care to illustrate how they were obviously ducks, and point out Nienna's comment? Or to explain why you voted for me when Nienna was so obviously a duck?
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
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03-25-2009, 01:12 PM | #915 | |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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Quote:
Hmmmm. Noggie is busy toDay, if I'm not mistaken. EDIT: No wait, that was yesterday. Crap, I'm silly.
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Last edited by satansaloser2005; 03-25-2009 at 01:30 PM. |
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03-25-2009, 01:21 PM | #916 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
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After I called Lommy "feathered" (in reference to her personal title), Nienna commented about me hitting the nail on the head.
I voted for you because your comments about Lommy (who I already had decided was a duck) looked seerish. I'm not in the duck-voting game. |
03-25-2009, 01:22 PM | #917 |
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
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So you're a cobbler who votes for the person you think is a seer every day?
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03-25-2009, 01:27 PM | #918 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
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This is getting too good.
*grabs popcorn*
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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03-25-2009, 01:28 PM | #919 |
Scion of The Faithful
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Finally they shut the door on the fire extinguisher salesperson!
Now to get them the use the pitcher of water . . .
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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03-25-2009, 01:28 PM | #920 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Quote:
So basically everyone is free to come up with whichever-kind of a fantastic role their imgination allows and we just have no clue whether it could be true or not... I mean that would make sense. But if you're in here to pick seers then we should lynch you immediately before you "hit the nail in the head". Or is that just what you want as you're the dark side of the phantom's apprentice?
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