Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Diamond18]

The Evil Wizardliness That Was Roa, An Overview

Day One

#174 ~ #200

There’s not much to go on for Day 1 -- she wasn’t hardly around. Whether this was some kind of EW strategy or just the fact that even Evil Wizards get the RL blues, she only made two posts and both dealt with Loki. In her second post she quite astutely diagnosis the wolfishness of Nogrod’s actions. Of course. She already knows he’s a wolf. Roa used Noggie as her whipping boy with rather disturbing glee, which is very interesting to keep in mind. More on that Day 2.

Day Two

#258 ~ #274 ~ #277 ~ #287 ~ #296 ~ #297 ~ #324 ~ #336

I say whip it!
da na na na na na
Whip it good!
da na na na na na
I say whip it!
da na na na na na
Whip it good!

Well, that pretty much sums it up. She spent the entire day whipping Nogrod. Every post. End of story.

Day Three

#493 ~ #509 ~ #515 ~ #526 ~ #531 ~ #538 ~ #543 ~ #546

Interesting day. She starts out coming up against Fea and Valier a bit, then veers off into going after the fresh meat that is Celuien. Continues poo-poohing Valier’s posts, but doesn’t seriously go for the throat, in fact says she thinks Valier is probably just a misguided innocent.

Other people she addresses:

Defends Alcarillo.
Slightly neutral leaning towards positive light for Eomer.
Ditto Zali.
Unflattering image of the innocent Firefoot.
Defends the innocent Lommy.

She makes an interesting comment about the EW possibly killing Valier to make her look bad. For some reason, I get the feeling that Valier was innocent this day and Roa turned her that night. Either way, Roa is continuing to whip her wolves, with the exception of Alcarillo, who might not even be a wolf anyway.

Secondly, I don't think I went overboard in attacking Nogrod at all. He seemed far too guilty to not be a wolf, and I wanted to make sure the village got one. And I'm guilty because I picked up what the EW could end up doing? I alerted the village to a possible plan of the EW. If I was the actual EW, I would never alert you to something everyone had missed, especially if that was my actual plan.

Ah ha ha, ah ha ha ha. Damn, she’s convincing, ain’t she?

Day Four

#557 ~ #563 ~ #569 ~ #574 ~ #583 ~ #583 ~ #590 ~ #596 ~ #601 ~ #606 ~ #609 ~ #619 ~ #623 ~ #627 ~ #628 ~ #636 ~ #662 ~ #667 ~ #672 ~ #678 ~ #680 ~ #686 ~ #691 ~ #693 ~ #697 ~ #706 ~ #709

Interesting how she called on the Seer to come forward (here little seer, I won’t hurt you, I promise!) and played dumb about Gurthang’s meaning when he hinted at being the GW. She also voices regret that she voted for Celuien and not the equally innocent Firefoot. Early in the day she keeps after Firefoot but then is deterred by Nilp’s reveal. After the infamous kafuffle with Nilp (you got in the way of my scapegoating Firefoot, damn you!) she votes Valier but mostly turns on me. Whip it! Whip it good! Oh, and there’s a little Fea-whipping on the side.

You know, even though they went back and forth a little toward the end, I don’t think Roa actually wanted to kill Valier. So why did she vote for her? Was it a case of being between a rock and a hard place? I.E. -- is it possible that she was so upset with the list because her and three of her wolves were on it?

Day Five

#718 ~ #724 ~ #724 ~ #726 ~ #727 ~ #739 ~ #762 ~ #783 ~ #803 ~ #807 ~ #808 ~ #813 ~ #816 ~ #817 ~ #819 ~ #822 ~ #828 ~ #829 ~ #823

Well, out of the gate she is pressing my suspiciousness. Ask yourself if you believe she wants to kill another of her own after losing Valier and Naria in addition to the sacrifice of Nogrod and the un-cursing of Loki. Where does her living on the edge end? At any rate, it’s interesting to note how she reacted to my reactions. I had been slightly ticked by her analysis the previous day but lectured myself about taking things personally in WW, personality conflicts, etc. -- her continued obtuseness about my motivation for voting Loki irritated me further, though, especially the “Now now, voting for someone just because you don't like them is never a really good reason. In fact, it's one of the worst reasons givable.” comment. When all is said and done, Roa, you must tell me true whether or not you were purposefully pushing my buttons to get me to snap or just have a talent for it. Of course, sitting on my hands about points of conflict usually ends up in me snapping sooner or later, so it could just be coincidence. But I’m curious. The main reason for my “snide” comment at the end of the Fea-analysis was because I went to a lot of work on it, but didn’t come up with much to show for it, and so I just knew you would find it as another reason to up the village suspicion of me -- it fell under the light of me saying a lot but not coming to a definite conclusion. It was a rather depressing thought, besides being around 4 in the morning. By the way, I’m a Libra, and one of the hallmarks of a Libra (not that I really put much stock in the zodiac, but in my personal case it’s rather accurate) is the annoying habit of always having to balance all different sides of a situation... and so therefore rarely coming up with a definite yes/no this/that end to speculation.

But enough narcissism. Roa also addresses Zali, Eomer, Fea, Kitanna, and Lalaith. All of these she is somewhat neutral to positive about. Defends Alcarillowolf, calling the case against him “weak.” She votes Fea, probably only because I’m not on the sanctioned list.

Day Six

#843 ~ #845 ~ #847

Well, not much to say here. Just a lot of nonsense. Heh heh. Seriously, lovely evil challenge there. Bet Gurthang wishes he hadn’t let her get to it first.

In Summary

Well, if you judge Roa’s action by the way she whipped Nogord, then you should probably lynch me first and Fea second. Seriously. Lynch us! Lynch us good!

But here’s why I think you shouldn’t.

Roa did vote for Valier, but didn’t do much else to actively seal her demise. She defended Alcarillo. She ignored Naria. She also defended Loki, though he was no longer a wolf.

She went after Firefoot. And Celuien. Both innocent.

Unfortunately, the number of people she is neutral to positive to ignoring far outnumber the ones she targeted. This may make the lynching of Fea and Diamond look more attractive, but I’d call it lazy. Aye.*

For my part, I may vote Lalaith toDay.** But for now, to bed I go. I will go more in depth about my suspecting Lalaith tomorrow if I wake up in time. [free advertising] Oh, and I highly recommend Advíl and DCfC*** when doing analysis. It makes an otherwise dreary task downright pleasant. But then, Advíl and DCfC always makes everything better. [/free advertising]

* And, no we’re not wolfish teammates. Even if we were, we wouldn’t know it yet, would we?

** And then, if I live long enough, morm, Kitanna, Eomer, and so on. Right on down ze line.

*** DCfC is an, er, “group of bards,” not a drug. Just so you know.

[Lalaith]

Now, yesterDay my top suspects for EW were Fea, Diamond and Roa. Here are the reasons I suspected Roa.

I'm still worried about you, Roa. Your track record is the best of any of us, you've either attacked, or been attacked by, wolves in the most ostentatious fashion, so that no-one could possibly suspect you.... you see what I mean?

The reason I don't particularly suspect you as EW is that the wolf choices we know about so far aren't ones I'd expect you to make. I don't think you've played very much if at all with any of them.
They are rather Roa-ish choices which is one of the reasons I'm worried about her.

I do agree that there are various people here who probably would pick me for wolvery, and the fact that I am actually not a wolf told me a bit about the EW. I guessed, for example, fairly early on that it wasn't Cailin because I think she would have cursed me. Ditto, probably, Spawn. Our ancestors have encountered each other frequently and know each other well.
Roa's ancestors and mine have only met once, and fairly briefly. I'm not sure why she spent so much time analysing me yesterday, probably just wanted to look helpful.
I think our four wolves are two night Fours, the night Five and the night Six (last night.) I'm pretty sure that Roa would have made Jenny a wolf at some point so I think we could do worse than vote for her today.

I also think Roa feared her time was up, so I'm guessing last night's wolf will be Sauron to her Morgoth, a strong personality to carry on as leader. Given the fact that she made her old adversary Nogrod a wolf, would it not be rather fitting that she might entrust this task to Diamond?

I agree about the idea of Morm as wolf being a terrifying thought, I need to look into the lorebooks to see if Roa's family history would have given her an insight into his lupine capabilities.
More later, I'm a bit rushed now.

[littlemanpoet]

..... and urgency :

There will continue to be multiple kills per Night until there are less than 4 werewolves.

Carry on.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Well, Roa being the EW wasn't that surprising. A funny detail, phantom voted for her on Day 1 saying that she's a Wizard... perhaps something that contributed to his early death.

As has been pointed out, Roa wanted to have Loki, Nogrod, Naria, Valier, Alc and Nilp for Wolves. I'm not sure whom of these were the original Wolves, but at least Nilp wasn't cursed until later, and my guess is that Valier was cursed on Night 3 because the sudden change in her behaviour. Therefore I looked into their posts from the previous Day to find out what made Roa pick them.

Valier said that her biggest suspects were Celuien, Caran, Kitanna, Naria and Alcarillo. Two proven innocents there, two villagers who at some point became Wolves and one unknown. That Day (Day 2) there were 2 Wolves + Nogrod.

Valier didn't think that Nogrod was a baddie and thought that even though Oddwen's vote was weird, it wasn't weird enough to lynch her. She thought that there were definitely two wolves voting for Nogrod on Day 2. She points out especially Eomer and Kitanna the others being Diamond, Lommy, Roa, morm, Kath and Caran.


On Day 3 Nilp analysed how the EW will make her picks saying that due to the lists about possible Cursees the EW will pick someone totally opposite, and later she has the chance to pull a bluff and choose from the list.

Nilp questioned Zali and voted for her. He said that there probably were one or more baddies in the Loki bandwagon. That would be Diamond, Caran, Fea, Nogrod, Lalaith, Valier, Kitanna or Zali. There indeed was at least two Wolves, but whether they were Wolves already on Day 1, I don't know.


I think there are two options why Valier and Nilp were cursed. Either Roa thought that they would make great Wolves or then they got something right and Roa couldn't afford to keep them on the Good side. Perhaps it was both.

All of the Wolves thus far have been those who are easily suspected for a reason or another or who were bound to cause some controversy (Loki, for example, being a newcomer). All the Wolves have been also the type that don't desire to take the lead of village matters (compare to morm's statement toDay: "I officially call the village back to order and we need to forward ourself with the business at hand." ).

Now there are three Wolves from yesterDay, plus one newly cursed. Anyone who has seemed innocent thus far might be a Wolf toDay. I wonder if the rest of the Wolves are those who fall into the same category as I mentioned above, or did Roa take someone completely different - morm, Fea or Eomer, perhaps (even though it says in the narration that Caran guarded Eomer, I'm not sure if it means that he's a proven innocent).

Our silent villagers are a bit of a problem, too. Right now I'm suspicious of Jenny and Glirdan and Diamond because I think they would fit with Roa's earlier picks. I'll take a look if I find any actual evidence for suspecting those three later when I have more time.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

This is difficult. I'm not going to be on again until after the deadline, if then. (Aaah, RL!) So I'm going to provide a brief analysis of the village, in the hopes that I may be somewhat helpful before my fairly likely demise as an accident or suicide toMorrow. (According to the new rules)

I agree with Lalaith, who said that Roa would pick a strong wolf because she was afraid her time was drawing to an end.

The short list of people who would be truly scary as wolves: Morm, Eomer, and Jenny. I'm going to cross Eomer off the list for now, as he was mentioned as the one protected last Night. I don't know if stuff like that mentioned in the narration has any weight, but I certainly wouldn't want him to be lynched, as I consider him the closest thing to a known innocent that we've got at this point.

Morm would be scary as a wolf because he's been so helpful all along, so he's someone the village has built some measure of trust in. He's smart, he's a leader, and he's definitely capable of persuasive posting.

Jenny would be scary as a wolf based upon her ancestors' behavior as documented in the Book of Lore. She's been unusually quiet for quite a while, which, in her case, may be a sign that she's not a wolf. On the other hand, she's always louder and more helpful than she's been this time around, even when it's only feigned helpfulness.

I'm also worried about Glirdan because he comes and goes so frequently. He doesn't seem to have the time to review the thread, and that worries me, too. His votes seem rushed and poorly-explained.

Oddwen seems to be doing a stellar job of slipping under the radar after her near-lynching earlier. I don't think she should be ignored--she has done some odd things.

Diamond To me, she still seems innocent and helpful.

Spawn hasn't been posting as frequently as her custom, but she's been helpful. For now, she's not giving off any bad vibes.

Sleepy is quieter than I am. And that's an accomplishment. I feel like I don't have any kind of feeling about him at all...And most people, by now, I have at least some sense of.

Fea is, as usual, really hard to figure out. She seems to be doing her best to help the village, and isn't giving off an overly evil vibe, but who knows...

Kath--Just due to her questioning me yesterDay, I'm inclined to think her innocent. I'm sure she's capable of being devious, but that's not the feeling I'm getting from her. She seemed to be genuinely looking for the truth. So in my book, she's innocent.

Kitanna is sneaky enough to be a wolf, but not, I believe, as active as her custom. I'm ok to let her slide--she seems generally innocent, but that's just a gut instinct, and mine are so often wrong.

Eonwe is another who I haven't been able to get a handle on. He's quiet (which is nothing against him--I am, too). So he's coming up as pretty much nothing on the radar.

I've given you all something to consider, hopefully.

I'm going to vote

++Morm

For the simple reason that he would be sneaky, smart, seemingly helpful, and incredibly dangerous as a wolf. He's a great player, and take that as a compliment, if you like. He may or may not be guilty, but I have very little to go on.

The inevitable response to this may be: Well, then! You shouldn't have voted at all!

But I honestly think that I could do worse harm to the village by not voting, than by voting.

[JennyHallu]

Agh...my head hurts...

And Pina coladas are overrated.

Anyway: Down to the business at hand. I've been drawing some questions this morning, and my response to that is "ABOUT TIME!!" This is the first time I've ever been innocent and not immediately assumed guilty. Good sign, I must be learning.

I am NOT a wolf. Thank goodness! I don't want to be a wolf! My ancestors show so much wolvery in their midst you'd almost think lycanthropy genetic, and I hang gladly onto my innocence this game. I have been rather unusually quiet this game, but it's been RL issues and it was my 21st...

Oh, and Diamond, if you want to see me post snoggered wait until Friday. A lot more likely to get snoggered when I don't have to go to work in the morning.

Off to read the thread and draw my own conclusions.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I see I missed Lalaith's post earlier. We seem to be thinking along the same lines.

On second thought, I'm not sure if Glirdan would have been such a good pick for Roa after all. He has some problems to attend to the discussions and I doubt the EW would want to lose a Wolf because of being absent. Glirdan's posts toDay have consisted mostly of lamenting and wondering ("My mother was the evil one!! Holy cow!!"). He promises to help in the Wolf hunting as much as he can, but he'll be gone the next Day (so he's a goner...). Glirdan agrees with Fea who said that Roa might very well have picked Di as one of her Wolves.

If Glirdan is going to be dead after tomorrow anyway, we don't probably have to worry about him now although his posts might be considered somewhat wolvish because he says so little about his own thoughts. He really has flown at least under my radar, but a Wolf or not, I'd like to hear more from him. Same goes for Eonwe and Sleepy.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

O Caranlondien! I spoke against you and you did not retaliate; I considered you lupine and still you protected my life. Though you hear me not, I apologise deeply and sincerely.

Why did she protect me? Taking into account what Gurthang and the Seer have been doing recently, it was simply a matter of Caran considering me innocent and a likely wolf snack. Their activities are accounted for (right?) so I'm afraid, Azaelia, that I am certainly not a known innocent.

[Or should I have tried to ride that one a bit longer? ]

Nah, too honest. Anyway:

What of the kills? I'm surprised the wolves killed Caran. She strikes me as a far better wolf-pick from Roa than, say, Glirdan, Eonwe or Sleepy (they're too quiet), and so the wolves could probably go after Caran during the day. Of course, with the obvious thoughts of double-bluffing, maybe the Caran kill made most sense.

The Lommy kill surprises me more because she's usually a good suspicion-magnet.

It's a case of measuring the bluff/double-bluff o'meter. What would Roa do...

Oh, and....um....sorry Fea. Having said that, we've all got things right, you know. I reckon we should lynch Fea for excessive egoism.

[mormegil]

Fairly unusual shift in suspects today. Zali seems to have voted for me based on something over which I have no control. "Morm you're smart, helpful, and a good leader therefore we don't need you now and you must die" That's the way I'm taking it. I would think these are qualities that you want to have around currently as we are so desparate to get a wolf.

I think that Zali is back on her band wagon tatics, though this time she is initiating the band wagon. Let me explain. She read the earlier posts where Diamond, Lal and others think I would be a scary wolf, it's been so long that I can't tell you if that would be true though, and she thinks to herself 'oh there's somebody to go for' and begins the voting this time thinking that more people will vote for me. It's just a hybrid of her earlier suspicious behavior. Little has changed in her and I'm thinking that she's a misguided innocent who could be causing our doom or a fiendish wolf trying to attack me.

Diamond to answer about my position on Kath, if you wish I have well over 10 lore books with people very similar to us crossing paths multiple times and they always seem to end up suspecting each other. So I've resigned myself to always think her evil though seldom do much about it only when I have a really strong feeling that she is. Kath would agree with me on this point.

[Kitanna]

Kit, one of those Oddwen quotes is credited to me. I never voted for Lalaith.

Sorry about that. Didn't mean too.

I've had a chance to skim Diamond and Roa's posts. And I've come up with one theory.

Roa treated the four proven wolves differently.
Nogrod~ She attacked him a lot on Day Two and was successful in getting him lynched. A possible reason was she wanted to show she was innocent because not many EW would attack their wolves in such a way (at least that's what I thought at the time). Another reason was because she knew she could just make another one the next night.
Naria~ I don't think she really mentioned Naria. A post here or there maybe, but for the most part she left Naria alone.
Valier and Alcarillo~ As far as I can tell Roa was moderately involved with those two. She would leave them be at times and then she would attack or mention them at times.
Assuming Diamond is a wolf I'd say Roa took a stance with Diamond like she did with Nogrod. The two fought often, but as far as I know Roa never actually voted for Diamond. Perhaps she was trying to keep her wolf on her suspect list just incase Diamond died before her. She also mentioned Diamond as a possible EW.
The problem I see with my own theory is that Roa would have to be prepared if she died before Diamond, so why would she continually draw attention to her wolf without ever actually getting her lynched? After all drawing such attention to Diamond as a wolf without getting her lynched before herself is careless, I think. Roa is dead and she has left us with a good deal of posts to go through and a few fights with Diamond to sort out.
I think Diamond may be innocent. I can't see Roa being so vocal with a wolf as she was with Diamond because that would just leave her wolf out in the village as a suspicious person and an almost certain lynch subject. Diamond does fit the bill to be one of Roa's wolves, but I'm not so sure she is. When I have the time I will read through all of Diamond's posts, but for now I say she's most likely an innocent.

That said:
++ Oddwen

I said earlier Oddwen seems to have adopted Alcarillo's laying low after the first few days. Her lack of reasoning behind most of her posts puts me on edge and I don't want to see her fall of everyone's suspect list again. Her quiet nature and this completely flying under the radar would make her a good choice for Roa. That's my vote and I'm sticking by it.

[Lalaith]

I noticed one thing in Roa's posts yesterday, she said she thought that all original wolves were dead. Which makes me suspect all the more that Alcarillo was an original wolf.
This means that Zali and Oddwen, despite appearances to the contrary, are probably innocent. If my theory is correct, the early wolves are accounted for.
Zali and Oddwen were too suspicious to be Four or Five wolves, and too low-key to be the all-important Six wolf.
Spawn, my dear, with your brains and experience, you also fit the bill of a Six wolf.

[Oddwen]

Quote:
Oddwen=
Right now I'm looking at Celuien and Firefoot.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

More suspicions with no backing behind them.

I didn't say I suspected them, I said I was looking at them. And now looking back I don't even remember if it was supposed to be Celuien or Cailin.

Hmm. Three Wolves voted for me on Day 2.

Ugh. More later, I hope.

[JennyHallu]

Diamond of the Battledore: Diamond's been loud and head-of-the-village since day 1, and I'm really not sure what I think of her. Roa is definitely capable of picking someone so obvious she can slip over the radar, so to speak...Maybe.

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant: I think she's clever and intelligent, and a powerful asset to whatever side she's on. That said, Roa would love to have her as a wolf. Spawn, however, does play differently when wolvish or innocent, so I'll be keeping my eyes open for changes in her style.

Kath the minstrel: Quietish and doesn't seem to contribute much original information. Definitely a maybe. I think she's probably innocent, but it worries me that she has been so under the radar.

Glirdan with the giant crush on Kath: Would Roa choose him as a wolf? Sure...I don't have anything in my lorebooks on Glirdan's wolvish ancestors, but Roa is familiar and comfortable with him. Would she pick him as a wolf, knowing he wasn't around? That is a much bigger question. Not worried about him for now.

Sleepy Ranger the former wanderer: Sleepy frustrates me. He posts so little and usually it's an "I'm sorry I haven't been here, in-character rambling, vote". He has contributed almost nothing to the village, and I have seen nothing of his usual grandiose plotting. This worries me. He's definitely on my suspect list.

Kitanna the beloved of Eomer: I think she's a wolf, for the same reasons I did yesterDay. I am sorry I did not have more time to elaborate when I voted, but look at my thoughts on the Gurthang-list members to see my reasoning. Gurthang also commented on the abrupt change in her playing style.

Oddwen the filthy, insane street urchin who steals chickens: No idea. She's insane, there's no telling whether she's a wolf. My lorebooks say she always plays like this, with few posts and little reasoning.

mormegil the retired mariner and current mayor: I agree with Zali that my dear father would make a formidable enemy, but that is no reason to vote for him. Our mayor has seemed from day 1 to have only our best interests at heart. I think him innocent right now.

Feanor the shepherdess with a love of alliteration: Honestly, I think she's innocent. She's been amazingly clear for all the drugs she claims to be on, but just the effort she's been putting into substantive clear analyses screams innocent to me. I thought a couple days ago she might be the EW, but I've changed my mind, especially after her complex hunt-the-wizard analyses yesterday.

Zali the seamstress and beloved of the phantom: I was willing to give her the benefit of the doubt, but she spends yesterday working to convince us she's just been playing carelessly, and jumps right back into carelessness today. Definitely a worry.

Jenny Hallu the unmarried maiden & aunt: I know I'm innocent, but I would appreciate an analysis of me done by someone else. A) because I have drawn some suspicion, if only of the gut-feeling variety, and B) because I think the wolves are likely to come from players Roa was familiar with, and most of the ones she has picked are WWJ graduates, and I definitely fall in that category. Honestly, I think most of the reason I was not picked is that Roa and I tend to bicker.

Lalaith the frivolous aunt and guardian of Oddwen: I don't know what I think of Lalaith. She seems careful. She posts a lot, but I don't think I've yet seen a very long post from her (could be wrong). Definitely a "keep-my-eye-on".

Eonwe the freeloading husband of Lhunardawen: Probably innocent. He frustrates me for the same reason Sleepy does, but to a lesser extent, because this is normal for him.

Eomer the adventurer & lover of Kitanna: I think he's innocent. I thought the case brought against him two days ago to be mostly bogus, and Eomer is too valuable to get rid of at this juncture.


There. Now I'd better work a bit, since that is what they pay me for.

[JennyHallu]

Oddwen...you said you were looking at them, yes, but you never came back to say what you'd decided. And there may have been several wolves voting for you, but if they don't know eachother (and I doubt they will until tonight) that means nothing except you were generally suspicious enough it would be more suspicious not to vote for you.

And you have no way of knowing if they were wolves when they voted for you.

I am interested in hearing a real defense from you.

[Lalaith]

The quiet ones bug me too, but voting for one of them toDay feels too much like shooting in the dark. Besides, if they don't post toDay they're out anyway, and their roles revealed. So we can worry about the ones that remain, tomorrow Day. (Oh reading through Roa's posts - she was well aware of the fact that villagers were allowed to not vote/disappear until the death of the wizards, but had to be around after that. I wonder how much that influenced her choices)
Morm, I may be scared of you, but I'm not going to vote for you toDay. You're too useful if you're innocent - let's see what toMorrow will bring.

I wonder if Roa did tell the wolves about each other, last night...

[littlemanpoet]

Upon further reflection, I have changed my mind in one regard:

Players will not be removed from the game for failure to post in a Day or failure to vote.

I've decided that this could arbitrarily and artificially foul up the precarious balance of this game.

If the players wish to remove a fellow player they feel is undeserving, lynching may be done ... if you want to use up a good lynch that way.

Or if werewolves wish to remove a player they feel is undeserving, killing may be done .... if you want to use up a good killing in that way.

That is all.

Carry on.

[Kath]

Yup. To answer whoever it was that asked about it, I do agree with morm (for once ). Our ancestors have crossed each other on numerous occasions, more often than not on the same side, yet still we find ourselves inexplicably against each other in every game. However, we try these days not to let history mar our judgement of each other. When morm says 'of course Kath must be evil' it's a joke. When he starts to muse and think up plans to get me lynched, then it's real.

Now, onto other business. Who is left?
Diamond
spawn
Kath
Glirdan
Sleepy
Kitanna
Oddwen
morm
Fea
Zali
Jenny
Lalaith
Eonwe
Eomer

Now, Glirdan and Zali have both admitted that they will not be able to get on here tomorrow and so will commit suicide at the end of the next Day. They may still be wolves with unavoidable circumstances but there is little point in trying to lynch them since they will die anyway. I'm not sure on Sleepy though, is he in that same boat?

As of this particular moment Diamond, Fea, spawn and morm seem innocent to me. Diamond I think is just too much like Roa in some ways, and while this might be beneficial to the EW (having someone who thinks like her carry on after her death) I don't think she would have kicked up such a fuss and made sure everyone was looking at Diamond if this were the case. Yes it could be the perfect bluff but I'm not so inclined to believe that.

Fea has either coasted by on pure luck (not having been dreamt of, not getting lynched) or she is innocent, and while the luck does seem to have been on the evil side so far this game, I'm not sure it extends that far.

morm, well, you all know the history now, so my thinking him innocent probably means he's the biggest, baddest wolf in town. Still, I just can't see anything wolvish. His desire to take control is definitely an innocent trait (for him).

spawn seems as analytical and decisive as ever. Basically I think she acting normally and therefore is innocent.

Now there was a comment by Lalaith that caught my eye:

I noticed one thing in Roa's posts yesterday, she said she thought that all original wolves were dead. Which makes me suspect all the more that Alcarillo was an original wolf. . . If my theory is correct, the early wolves are accounted for.

I disagree. If Roa said that the opposite is more than likely to be true. Which puts Lalaith on my suspicion list.

Which leaves me with:
Sleepy - no idea on him. He's barely been around and hasn't posted with a huge amount of substance when he has been.

Kitanna - I would lean toward her being more guilty than innocent. She's relatively quiet but helpful, and she tends to float along under the radar. A good choice for a wolf I think, especially since we haven't seen this type of middling candidate from Roa's choices yet.

Oddwen - not a great deal of help. In fact pretty much none. I think she could well be a wolf trying out the 'quiet' tactic.

Jenny - I don't have much information on her in my lorebooks, and with her sporadic attendance the last few Days I'm really not sure what to make of her.

Eonwe - see Jenny and Sleepy.

Eomer - I don't trust the guy, but that's almost as much of a given as me not trusting morm. Aside from that gut feeling which I can't seem to shake I have no evidence that he even could be guilty.

That's all folks!

[Kath]

lmp!?! I don't care if you are the ModGod that's still damned annoying!

[Lalaith]

Now there was a comment by Lalaith that caught my eye:
Quote:
I noticed one thing in Roa's posts yesterday, she said she thought that all original wolves were dead. Which makes me suspect all the more that Alcarillo was an original wolf. . . If my theory is correct, the early wolves are accounted for.

I disagree. If Roa said that the opposite is more than likely to be true. Which puts Lalaith on my suspicion list.

That's what I meant, Kath
Ok, let me put this another way.
Roa says all original wolves have been killed. At this point Alcarillo was still alive. Ergo, as Roa was almost certainly lying, Alcarillo, still alive, was an original wolf, as I have maintained all along.

[Kath]

Ah! I understand! Thanks Lalaith, must have misread that somehow.

[Lalaith]

However, I do agree with you Kath on LMP's latest ruling...it is annoying having to waste our valuable lynches on non-participants, particularly as double lynches aren't allowed.

[mormegil]

I disagree and think that LMP's ruling is quite helpful to us. Think about the math there are 14 of us left (I believe that is the correct number) so we are up against 4 wolves to our 10 innocents. If we lynch an innocent today the wolves still get to kill 2 tonight leaving us desperately at 7 to 4 the next day and if we don't get a wolf on that day we are done. So I think it's a wise thing to do and help keep balance in the game. Essentially if an innocent silent, certainly at least one of the quiet types are innocent, were to be artificially removed then we would be even at greater odds to overcome this threat.

Perhaps you should recant and beg pardon of LMP.

[Kath]

morm it wasn't what he did that was annoying, it was simply that he did it. There was me all ready to ignore those not around after tomorrow and boom! Rule change.

[Lalaith]

Perhaps you should recant and beg pardon of LMP

Mod's pet!

Well, all right then, I'm sure the Great Seal knows what he's doing.

I've got to go now and can't be sure of being back before deadline. As I haven't come up with any better ideas, I'm going to follow my Jenny hunch.

++JENNYHALLU

[Boromir88]

This is the gaming thread and I suggest we take this discussion out and continue what should be done here...which is finding someone to lynch. If you have a problem you can always PM or post on the discussion thread.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

And so he came unexpected from places unseen and spoke nobly with that authority to him granted by the Seal...

Quite frankly, I prefer the idea that we aren't going to have some of our numbers killed off with or without our approval.

I look with unease upon any that are dubious of the Seal's decision as unplanned-for deaths help only the wolves.

[Lalaith]

Quickly dashed back as I just had a thought, which I'd better share now in case I'm lynched later or eaten toNight.
I've been wondering why on earth Roa spent all that time on my posts yesterday. Probably as I said before to look helpful.
But maybe it's because I said something at some point that she didn't want anyone to remember. Di had wanted my posts analysed and Roa didn't want an innocent to do it, so she did it herself and left something important out. I haven't got time now to go over it myself, I will tomorrow if I'm still here.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Does no-one else think that this could be a huge hint? i.e. Azaelia and/or Glirdan is furry and fanged?

Don't mean to bring the game into disrepute or anything but I'm trying to work with whatever comes my way.

Back soon with a comment on Diamond and Roa.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Does no-one else think that this could be a huge hint? i.e. Azaelia and/or Glirdan is furry and fanged?

If by "this" you mean LMP's decision to let the villagers do things themselves, then no... I don't think it at all. I have too much faith in the Seal's virtue to believe that he'd intentionally hint us anything and too much in his care to believe that he'd let anything slip.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The quarrel between Roa and Diamond yesterday did not strike me as being genuine. Actually, now knowing Roa's evil secret, it now looks pathetically ad hoc. Accusations of name-calling and arrogance, there was no need for it at the time. Agree to disagree, please. I'm naturally suspicious of anyone who feels the need to defend oneself in such an abrasive manner. My family (what's left of it — O Eru! I just realised I'm the only one! ) are well aware of the consequences wrought from the pressure of a dark secret.

So, Diamond, right now I'm thinking that you and Roa constructed that little scenario in order to open a chasm of neutrality, where every villager must choose one or the other and one of you would benefit from the death of t'other.

And the main reason I say this is because it was you who came across as more desperate yesterday, not Roa. Had you nothing to hide you would have taken Roa's alleged taunts less seriously, I am sure. But you really wanted to send a message to the village, this split with Roa had to be underlined. Come to think of it, you also got quite heated with Loki.

Not that I want to push your buttons.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

But Fea, delicate balances? Why not just let them perish?

I speak not of virtue, but of realisation.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Whatever. I doubt he'd do anything that would intentionally warp proceedings.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Me too.

[Kath]

Eomer I would think if we were treating it as a hint that it would mean the opposite, that the two are innocent. Whoever did the stats earlier showed that we are pretty much screwed. There isn't much of a balance right now, the bad guys are winning, even without the EW.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

No, no, no. I'm not saying that this was a hint by intention. I'm saying that it could be read in ways that will give us hints in catching wolves. And Kath, I don't want to see this negative attitude from you! Why on earth shouldn't the village win? Statistics, schmatistics, I say. We have plenty of chances to get this right.

[Kath]

Please explain Eomer, apparently my brain is not with it. And a defeatist attitude worked great for my most recent ancestor!

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Not that I want to push your buttons.

Nah, because it's so fun to watch you be so terribly wrong.

[Sleepy Ranger]

++JennyHallu

Rather obvious that she is someone Roa would pick.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Sleepy Ranger

Rather obvious that she is someone Roa would pick.

May I ask why she would be a good pick?

[JennyHallu]

Exactly, thanks Morm!

That's two votes for me with minimal reasons: One an admitted "hunch" and one because "Roa would pick me". Can I see one analysis, please, before I become a lynching candidate? Especially with so few innocent villagers left guys! We need to be careful!

And I expect more thought from Lalaith especially.