WWLXII: Dead Men Do Tell Tales

[Mithalwen]

I know...odd certainly maybe not koala cute but not monstrous...

[Eönwë]

"Well, I'm back" as Sam said.
Going to read through th' end of yesterday and toDay.

[Nerwen]

All right. I'll vote now.

++ Mac.

As always, I'll try and be back later and will change if need be.

[Thinlómien]

Alright first off one thing. Boro, I'm sorry I called you stupid. I can only say you're not the only one frustrated here and that Kath lynch seemed utterly pointless to me. I was unnecessarily nasty in my critique of it, especially as I must admit I intentionally phrased stuff provocatingly to see how you'd react. I didn't mean to offend nor did I think you'd be offended, but I should've realised it's not very nice to call someone stupid. Like I said, I'm sorry. But if there's any good in this thing, it's that your reaction seems very innocent to me (or then you are a rather heartless manipulator) so I think I may finally be sure.


edit: xed with Nerwen - yay! *hugs Nerwen*

[Thinlómien]

++Macalaure

Trying to make more sure he dies if there's a tie.

It is possible I will retract but I doubt it. (I think the only possible case is that becomes a race between Shasta and someone I consider innocent, or between me and someone else.)

[Macalaure]

Seems to be my day today. Three misguided votes and my computer ate my Eonwe-post.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I had the same question though. Is that even possible? I mean if the mod's completely twisted in the head they might allow it but why would the pack do that? They might 'clear' one of their own but would lose that person's voting power, as well as the chance to get another innocent down. Makes no sense.

I was just putting it out there. Yes, of course it's highly unlikely, but in a game like this where we don't know anything, anything could happen.

[Thinlómien]

Trying to get Gwath lynched, eh, Mac? He's pretty much the only one who is suspected even a bit and not on your side. I almost pity you because you have so few choices to pick from. Maybe you could launch a bandwagon against Eönwë, he usually falls victim to those quite easily, almost as easily as Gwath.

Originally Posted by Mac

With the rest, I have a bad feeling about Lommy and Eonwe, no idea about Mith anymore, and feel more or less good about Boro and Shasta. This more or less determines the order in which I will have close looks at people now.

Translation: I could get Lommy or Eönwë lynched since they have been suspected a tiny bit, I'm preparing for the Day we have to lynch Mith, I want to get Boro to my side and I won't lynch my mate Shasta. See, I can speak wolf.

Why is Izzy voting Mac?
a) She's a cobbler who's doing him a risky favour.
b) She's a cobbler and she's mistaken about him.
c) I'm mistaken about him.
d) She's innocent after all (and making weird comments because she's frustrated).
I'm inclined to think b) or d) is correct. a) would be foolish, and I don't believe in c) because I trust my own judgement more than Izzy's (no offense). I'm a bit baffled by her voting him but it makes me happy nevertheless. *hugs Izzy too*


edit: xed with Mac and Eönwë

[Thinlómien]

Aieeeeeee Mac. Just see what I said when cross-posting with you. You're a tad too predictable. I'm sorry the computer ate your post, though. It sucks. (But I'm not sorry for the well-guided votes. )

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by me

I was just putting it out there. Yes, of course it's highly unlikely, but in a game like this where we don't know anything, anything could happen.

And also, it could be that they killed a cobbler, who, even though dead, could be trying to help the wolf side.

Also, I at the time I didn't like the assumption on this post that Rikae was a proven avenger, though now I see what you mean... Nogrod would have no reason to pretend that he wasn't- though we still have no idea what he is.

[Thinlómien]

I'm beginning to agree with those who say Eönwë is a cobbler. That does not merit lynching him, though.

[Macalaure]

Alright, I won't rewrite it, but here are the things I noticed:

-He intentionally abstained from voting on Day2, so he might not be unlikely to do the same as a mutineer.

-On Day3 he has two actual suspects in his list, Nogrod and Gwath. Gwath is in there because he's under his radar. Can a top 2 suspect be under one's radar? The reason seems invented. (He thinks he's giving Gwath the first vote, so mutineer-on-mutineer is possible.)

-This is from Day4:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

I wouldn't necessarily assume that the real seer would have revealed by now if Greenie isn't. It could be that the real seer hasn't found any wolves yet. However, it does make Nerwen seem innocent because I assume that the seer would have dreamt her, and if she had been a mutineer then they may have decided to reveal because of this, which would incriminate both Nerwen and Greenie.

Message to cobbler?

-Later that day, he says he has only half an hour left and nobody to vote for. He uses his little time to write a huge vote list, but still doesn't know who to vote and joins the Sally-waggon (because she's under his radar).

-On Day5 there's the awkward theory that the mutineers might have sacrificed one of their own at night. That's all he talks about that day until he votes Inziladun because he's under his radar.


From Day1 til now, he has not made a reasonable point about anyone. He doesn't know who to vote for, but doesn't seem to be interested in changing it. His voting reason is consistently "under the radar". I wish I could say something in his defense, but there really isn't anything. Eonwe's a mutineer.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm really not liking the way this game is going. I'm pretty sure a win (or loss) could be right around the corner.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I'm really not liking the way this game is going. I'm pretty sure a win (or loss) could be right around the corner.

Meaning your packmate is on the chopping block?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm not sorry for the well-guided votes.

Izzy seems particularly well-guided this game, and Nerwen's reasoning there is breathtaking. Seems like the cobblers are indeed following your guidance at last.

[Thinlómien]

Oh Mac and Sally, you're sweet. Mac you're so hard trying to make a case out of thin air. You think you can retain your credibility after concluding: "I wish I could say something in his defense, but there really isn't anything. Eonwe's a mutineer." based on that? You could've said "this looks rather fishy, I think Eönwë is a mutineer" and you might've had a chance. And Sally, it's nice you talk to your mates from the grave. Too bad we others can read too.


edit: xed with Inzy and Mac

[Boromir88]

I didn't mean to offend nor did I think you'd be offended...~Lommy

I already knew that before, which takes out some of the sting.

I know sometimes I need a good butt-kicking into shape, because sometimes I think wildly and more reactionary. If you think something I did/said was stupid, that's fine, and by all means say it...I always don't catch myself. It was just the I'm either "stupid or a cobbler," and not that I possibly made a "stupid choice." But how could we possibly know whether Kath's lynch worked out for good or bad?

If you were searching for a reaction from me, just ask...and be as provacative as you want...even put it as "Boro...what the - ?" Say it looked stupid, or wolvish, or whatever...phrasing it in a question tends to help.

Alright first off one thing. Boro, I'm sorry I called you stupid.

Accepted...and if you think I'm being stupid, say it, sometimes I need reminding, but just put a with it, that takes out the sting and I still get the point.

Edit: crossed with everyone since Mac's 812

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Izzy seems particularly well-guided this game, and Nerwen's reasoning there is breathtaking. Seems like the cobblers are indeed following your guidance at last.

At last? At least, I'd say. I don't know what Nerwen is, and I admit her vote is not well reasoned. I like it nevertheless. But why get so edgy so early? She said she'd be back and change if needed. I will be long gone once she reappears while you'll be here to convince her you're on the same side (whatever side you try to confirm her of ).

edit: xed with Boro

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Oh Mac and Sally, you're sweet. Mac you're so hard trying to make a case out of thin air. You think you can retain your credibility after concluding: "I wish I could say something in his defense, but there really isn't anything. Eonwe's a mutineer." based on that? You could've said "this looks rather fishy, I think Eönwë is a mutineer" and you might've had a chance. And Sally, it's nice you talk to your mates from the grave. Too bad we others can read too.


edit: xed with Inzy and Mac

Actually, I was just voicing my suspicions that the game could soon be over, either way. And I warned you before to be careful who you lynched, but no one listened, so it's your own faults.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Accepted...and if you think I'm being stupid, say it, sometimes I need reminding, but just put a with it, that takes out the sting and I still get the point.

Edit: crossed with everyone since Mac's 812

Or just make a joke about hitting me with a piece of fish.

Ok, now I will go and read the Lommy and Mac business I didn't from yesterday.

[Eönwë]

I think that that Lommy's relentless going-after-Mac makes her look innocent, as I don't think a wolf would go that far, as it "puts her out" more. If it was a wolf-on-wolf, then now that Mac has started to gain suspicion, then I would have expected her to slow down (though very subtly so as not to arouse suspicion), whereas she's still going for it- in fact, she is daring anyone to challenge her argument, which she claims is the best so far. Wolf-on innocent could be a possibility, but since Mac does look a little suspicious I don't think this is likely.
The other option, of course is that it is innocent-on-innocent, which is quite possible in such a game where no-one knows anything.

[Thinlómien]

Ok Boro I promise I will remember those pieces of advice next time.

For the first time in a few Days I'm feeling good about this game. I wonder if it means we're finally doomed for good. (<- and I'm not putting that laughing face there because I'm thinking of us getting doomed, I'm just thinking of us having a real chance to lynch Mac and thinking "heck we might survive after all".)


edit: xed with everyone

[Shastanis Althreduin]

My own opinion is still that Lommy and Mac are both mutineers, by the way. Lommy suspecting me based on process of elimination (which is useless considering we have no way of knowing how many mutineers we've already lynched!) is probably the capper. I get the feeling she's doing it just to have one more point of contention where Mac is concerned.

Edit: X'd with Eonwe and Lommy. If anything, Eonwe being against Lommy and Mac being wolf-on-wolf makes me more sure that's what's going on here.

[Macalaure]

Lommy, the thing is, apart from the points I made against him, Eonwe didn't really give us any post of substance. I think my conclusion is very valid. Btw, in what position are you to make a handful of flimsy points and call it a fact?

Lommy's boldness today gives me a bad feeling about our numbers. This is the way wolves start to behave when they're one wrong lynch away from sweeping a village.

Lommy, Eonwe, Gwath... who's the fourth one in there? After looking at Eonwe, I don't think it could be dead-Sally anymore.

[Thinlómien]

*flip-flop-flip-flop*

Can you hear that? It is the sound of a Lommy flip-flop coming. I think Eönwë is an ordo. And yes, for no other reason but that he finds me innocent. If he was acobbler, he would have gone by exactly the same logic he presents and not posted that but started attacking me and trying to get Mac with him.

Okay I feel that due to Inzil's proven innocence and some other stuff (like this comment of Eönwë's, although knowing him, he will probably make soon another post that incriminates him in my eyes - hey wait he could be a mutineer after all, it could make sense but it must wait until I think more about it), it's time for me to make a new list of how I believe the roles were given out.


edit: xed with our remaining mutineers

[Nogrod]

The number of cobblers around is breath-taking...

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Lommy suspecting me based on process of elimination (which is useless considering we have no way of knowing how many mutineers we've already lynched!) is probably the capper.

Oh, I forgot about that post. Yes that is poor reasoning, and I don't know why she's using it as she has a perfectly good case against Mac (whatever their roles).


Also, I'm entertaining the possibility that perhaps all of those in the thick of the argument are actually innocent, and that the real mutineers are the quiet ones that post seldom, and are just sitting back and watching us innocents fighting each other while they stay out of the limelight.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The number of cobblers around is breath-taking...

And what is your bidding for toDay, oh king of the co-conspies?



Seriously, though, I'm really confused by this whole Lommie and Mac business. I don't know who to believe. It's driving me a bit bonkers.



And no one's figured out my icon yet.


EDIT: x'd with Steve. Like you, ya mean?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mac

Lommy, the thing is, apart from the points I made against him, Eonwe didn't really give us any post of substance. I think my conclusion is very valid. Btw, in what position are you to make a handful of flimsy points and call it a fact?

I KNEW that was coming from you. I agree Eönwë hasn't helped us too much - except with his handy tables and a point or two - but it doesn't surely mean he's a mutineer. I can imagine him being just intimidated by the setting and not pushing his way to make points against other people, like you and me have done, but that doesn't give any clue to his role.

Originally Posted by Mac

Lommy's boldness today gives me a bad feeling about our numbers. This is the way wolves start to behave when they're one wrong lynch away from sweeping a village.

Nay, Mac, I've made that mistake once and I wouldn't do it again. I've lost one game because of being so certain and desperate on the last Day, so if I was a wolf now, I'd be really much more careful and subtle and not attack you like a rabid dog. (Haha what a well chosen comparison.) My boldness, if you want to call it that, has been simply out of confidence in your guilt and desperation not to lose this game. ToDay it's looking probable we lynch you and I'm becoming happy because it looks like we have postponed our death a little and we may still solve this mystery in time.

It's far from certain anyway. Just relax Mac. Unfortunately you're not dead yet.

And Shasta - that is exactly what I'd do in your place, you can't win this without turning on Mac but you're not too happy with me alive so if I was you I'd do exactly the same... but I hope it's not enough to save you.


edit: triple-xed

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

EDIT: x'd with Steve. Like you, ya mean?

OK, but that would be a little too suspicious, don't you think?

Also, I was thinking more those that talk reasonably a lot but haven't really got into/commented on on the Lommy/Mac/Boro thing, like Nerwen and Mith. If that's the case then nice little innocent conversation about echidnas, wouldn't you say? Also Shasta and Gwath. However, I think don't find Mith and Shasta suspicious, though maybe that's just their masterful tactics- I don't know. Gwath isn't here.

[Thinlómien]

Shasta, I admit process of elimination is rather faulty in a setting like this but I can't believe we're as lucky as to have lynched all the mutineers except for Mac.


edit: xed with Eönwë

[Eönwë]

Ah! Now I'm flip-flopping on Shasta. On the one hand, he seems quite innocent, on the other hand, where have all his posts gone? (By which I mean- what has he done with that many posts!?)

[Thinlómien]

Nogrod, are you criticising the cobblerishness/ bad quality of people's posts/ arguments or the volume of the accusations of cobblerism flying around?

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Nogrod, are you criticising the cobblerishness/ bad quality of people's posts/ arguments or the volume of the accusations of cobblerism flying around?

Probably both

[Thinlómien]

Okay.

Greenie was the seer. Rikae was the hunter.

I'm innocent. Inziladun was innocent. McCaber and Kath were innocent. Boro and Gwath are innocent.

Sally was a wolf. Mac and Shasta are wolves.

This is what I feel rather safe assuming. That leaves me the group:
Nerwen
Izzy
Eönwë
Mith
Mira
Eomer
Annu
Wilwa
Nogrod
with 1 wolf, 2 cobblers and 6 innocents in it.

Let's see. Eomer and Nerwen are not wolves, so the list of possible wolves goes down to:
Izzy
Eönwë
Mith
Mira
Annu
Wilwa
Nogrod

I think Eönwë is not a wolf (given how Mac treats him). If I have to bet, I will actually remove Izzy and Mith too, because they are more like ordos/cobblers than wolves.

So by my logic, the last wolf was someone who's already dead. Huzzah!

Then off to cobblers. The list of possible cobblers is:
Nerwen
Izzy
Eönwë
Mith
Mira
Eomer
Annu
Wilwa
Nogrod

I will take Mira and Wilwa off since they never gave me cobblerish vibes. Nerwen's Mac-vote exonerates her quite nicely yet not conclusively. Nah, if I have to guess the cobblers are/were among this three: Nogrod, Izzy and Eomer.

DISCLAIMER: () this post is based on assumptions all of you don't want to make. It's not supposed to be a conclusive all in all answer to this mystery, it is just my take on it.

It seems like I've reached the conclusion that we only have two mutineers left. Unfortunately, I believe more in my chances of making a mistake than our chances to have done so well this far so I'm not getting hopeful yet.

And Shasta, if we lynch Mac and this game ends then, I will consider you innocent. ( = all people who seem more wolvish than Shasta or at least as wolvish as him are dead already.)

[Thinlómien]

I'm actually wondering now if Mac-Eönwë could be wolf-on-wolf after all... I could see Mac doing that. (And I could see him accusing Eönwë just wanting to get him lynched instead of himself or trying to make it seem like wolf-on-wolf... argh.)

[Thinlómien]

Where is everyone? I should go to sleep soon...

[Mithalwen]

Not a cobbler ..just clueless ... maybe I need fish slapping too .... I am not being deliberately unhelpful really....

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I agree Eönwë hasn't helped us too much - except with his handy tables and a point or two - but it doesn't surely mean he's a mutineer. I can imagine him being just intimidated by the setting and not pushing his way to make points against other people, like you and me have done, but that doesn't give any clue to his role.

If this isn't a mutineer defending a mutineer then I don't know what is. Handy tables usually fall into the category of "looking helpful without being helpful" because they don't give you genuine thought - you know that very well. On the next one I call you: Which were the one or two points you found helpful. List. Also, I did not say "He isn't helpful, he's evil", but "He posted a lot of evil things, and he isn't even helpful, he's evil". Nobody has to push points against others, but stating opinions isn't asked too much.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Nay, Mac, I've made that mistake once and I wouldn't do it again. I've lost one game because of being so certain and desperate on the last Day, so if I was a wolf now, I'd be really much more careful and subtle and not attack you like a rabid dog.

In a regular game I would maybe even believe that, but in this setup with barely any knowledge? Nope. Look how many think you're innocent just because you're so bold. It's a risky move, and you are pulling it well - but you have not won yet

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Not a cobbler ..just clueless ... maybe I need fish slapping too .... I am not being deliberately unhelpful really....

*slaps you with a fish*

As you wish.



Also, I'm so glad that Lommie's figured out my role! Good for her. Heh, right.