WW LXI: Grimm Tales

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Inzil

As I see it, it might also narrow the field enough for the Hunter to be easily picked off during the Night, with a decent chance still of missing a wolf. It might be advisable to hold off another day, when the choices have narrowed a bit. Could be a calculated risk though.

But do we want to risk the chance that we'll vote for Gretel and kill her?

Or what happens if we vote for her, she reveals to save herself, then we recast our votes for someone else and whoops, it's the Hunter! Or it could happen the other way around of course. The fact is, last minute reveals to save your skin can often lead to bad things. We saw what happened when Izzy revealed at the last moment. If she would've come out hours before and said, "I'm the Ranger and I know for a fact Fea is a baddie" we never would've had any of that mess.

Not only does Gretel help us vote today, and help the Hunter choose tonight, but Hansel can be sure to not use his power on her and take her vote away. Don't forget about the votes, people. Hansel and Gretel can add/subtract votes, and the more people we have revealed the better their chances of doing some good with their powers.

And you really think the baddies will take a blind shot at the Hunter with Hansel and Gretel revealed? No, no- their voting power along with their clear innocence is far too great for the baddies to risk leaving them alive on a chance they may hit the Hunter, especially seeing as a successful Hunter pick might lead to them dying as well.

In addition, waiting until tomorrow might allow one of the baddies time to set up a reveal of their own.

And don't forget this point- what if we're well on our way towards lynching a baddie today, and then they say, "No, I'm Gretel" near the deadline and we believe them and spare them? If Gretel would go ahead and step out now then the Baddies would have absolutely NO roles to hide behind. We know Hansel, we would know Gretel, and it's not viable to reveal as the Hunter, for the real Hunter can just challenge the claim and knows exactly who to hunt then AND more likely than that has some way to prove who they are (judging by Mira's talk of a coded message).

Anyway.... that's what I think.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I've got some things to say about tp.

Just a moment.

It's been an hour. Let's have it. What's your angle on me.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Look at when I "revealed" as a baddie. It was when both the Seer and Ranger were still alive, and two Wolves were outed. At that point in the proceedings, would it make sense for a third Wolf to reveal, considering two have been caught already and the Seer still has another dream to use before she dies?

The Robber Bridegroom might well try it, but it is very doubtful that it would be intelligent for a member of the evil foursome to come out at that time. It's downright suicidal.

The situation was this: Mira had revealed as the Seer and denounced Agan and Fea. Then Fea counter-revealed and accused you, tp, of being the Robber Bridegroom.

So your reveal supported her claim. Now, it does have a somewhat jokey, ambiguous tone to it... so yes, you could have been doing what you say... or you could have been laying ground for a retraction. Anyway, if you're innocent, you knew she was lying, so it was a dangerous stunt to pull in those circumstances– not just for you, but for the village.

To be fair, if you're the Robber Bridegroom, there's the unresolved question of how you knew which "Seer" was false (and thus the one to support)... I don't know– it may be you were more on the ball than I was, and picked Fea's slip immediately. Or it may be that the RB and wolves have found some way to identify each other– in fact Fea basically said this yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Phantom, love of mine, I applaud you for making it so easy for me to find you. If I hadn't screwed it up, it would have made for some nice evidence of my seerhood.

On the other hand, I'm not sure what to make of Fea's parting words. They do read a bit like, "See, everyone! He IS the RB! Really!"

Bringing me to the other point. No, wouldn't have made sense for a third wolf to reveal as a wolf– but you didn't. And there's a perfectly good reason for a wolf to reveal as a cobbler. You said it yourself:

Originally Posted by the phantom

So there it is. If I'm bad, I'm at worst the Robber Bridegroom, in which case I count for the villagers in the tally and lynching me isn't overly helpful. The point is to lynch the packmates here.

So... I don't know what you are, phantom, but here are the odds I'm offering toDay:

Robber Bridegroom (2-1)
Wolf (2-1)
Innocent (50-1)


Finally, what's this mean–?

Originally Posted by the phantom

So the thought has never occurred to either of you that I'm the fourth and final Ordo

Huh? To the best of my knowledge, there are two ordos (or apparent ordos) left in this village– unless Red Cap has been turned, which isn't public knowledge...

EDIT: X'd since my last post.

[Lariren Shadow]

Oh fine already. It's not like I've been using my power well anyway...I'm Gretel.

First Day I double Mira, the second Kath, the third the phantom, the fourth Mira again, and didn't do it at all yesterDay.

If people are wondering how I chose: simple I was going to see Mira on Day 1 so I decided to double her vote. Same with Kath because, well, I had nothing really better to go on. Third was the phantom because he seemed to be making sense and then the fourth when Mira revealed I figured why not make sure with her vote. And yesterDay I couldn't double the vote of Izzy because that's who I was going to do and I couldn't double Mira and it felt a waste because we all knew that Fea was going to die anyway.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

To be fair, if you're the Robber Bridegroom, there's the unresolved question of how you knew which "Seer" was false (and thus the one to support)... I don't know– it may be you were more on the ball than I was, and picked Fea's slip immediately.

Precisely.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Huh? To the best of my knowledge, there are two ordos (or apparent ordos) left in this village– unless Red Cap has been turned, which isn't public knowledge...

I corrected that mistake 40 minutes ago. I miscounted, due to the fact that LRC is listed in a different place on the role list. So in fact there are two people left who are Ordos or who at least think they are Ordos.

But if that was the very last thing you wrote in your post (it would appear so from the wording, "Finally, what's...."), and I corrected the statement 30 minutes before you posted, why did it take you so long to hit "submit" since you obviously copied and pasted the final quote in your post 30 minutes before you posted? Makes me suspect you've been thinking and pondering and plotting about something or other regarding your wording. Why? I'm tempted to think you are actually starting to believe I'm innocent after all, but since I'm no longer your faithful RB you are wanting to spin things the other direction.

[the phantom]

Thank you, Lari. If no one steps up to challenge then we have two known innocents to rally around.

[McCaber]

phantom, of course it occurred to me that you were an innocent trying to flush out a wolf. But your reveal looked much too scripted to pick it up at face value. So I decided to play it like I saw it, and if you were indeed an innocent hopefully my doubt would cause a wolf to think twice.

I should be back well before DL, so I'm not too worried about it. My thoughts run to Gaurcrist, though. I don't like that singleminded focus when the village needs to consider everyone.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Precisely.

I corrected that mistake 40 minutes ago. I miscounted, due to the fact that LRC is listed in a different place on the role list. So in fact there are two people left who are Ordos or who at least think they are Ordos.

But if that was the very last thing you wrote in your post (it would appear so from the wording, "Finally, what's...."), and I corrected the statement 30 minutes before you posted, why did it take you so long to hit "submit" since you obviously copied and pasted the final quote in your post 30 minutes before you posted?.

The delay was because I was called away to do chores. That's all.

[Nerwen]

I mean, okay, I should have refreshed before posting.

But even if the "remaining ordo" comment is just a mistake and not a wolf-slip, you haven't answered my other points. And there's your "precisely" comment. Are you saying you are the Robber Bridegroom now?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And there's your "precisely" comment. Are you saying you are the Robber Bridegroom now?

No. That "precisely" meant that you were right about me catching Fea's slip immediately, and thus I knew that she was the false Seer.

Anyway, my fear at this point is that people will show up suddenly and vote and not have time to talk at all.

Let's say hypothetically McCaber is the Hunter, and here in a couple hours when several of us are asleep Kath and Gaurcrist come running in and vote for him, and then they leave. Whoops. With them unloading their votes and leaving, he has no chance to save himself with a reveal, even if he can prove precisely who he is.

So people, seriously, let's not have any of that. Everyone try to be around in the final hour and talk about your leanings and such, so that we can have the best possibility of lynching a baddie. We can't screw this up.

Oh, and Hansel and Gretel, please don't tell us who you used your powers on today. For all we know the Baddies technically have enough voting power to take this game here and now (especially if LRC has been turned), and we don't want to give them the chance to do it. And I would recommend keeping silent on that matter tomorrow as well.

[the phantom]

Sleepy. Bed.

I'm setting my alarm so I'm up for the final hour. See ya.

[Kath]

So we potentially have two known innocents. Eomer and Lari.

Which leaves:
Nerwen
McCaber
Gaurcrist
Inzil
phantom

One is the Hunter (good guy), one is potentially Little Red Cap (bad guy if turned, otherwise good), the Big Bad Wolf (bad guy), the Old Witch (bad guy) and the Robber Bridegroom (bad guy but tallies as good).

Hmm, we have 8 people in this village at the moment. Only three known baddies (I'm discounting Red Cap). We have two reveals. Makes it 6-3. If the Hunter revealed it would be 5-3 but obviously that negates their power a bit. I don't know. It just feels like we ought to be able to push this on numbers but my maths isn't strong enough to work it out. I think what I mean is that if the Hunter revealed then (ignoring me) there are 4 people to vote between, with a chance of 3/4 that we'd get a bad guy (either one of the two wolves or the robber bridegroom).

Is this making any sense?

By the way I'm sorry I didn't appear before. I've been trying to think this through for ages and just couldn't make it all come together in my head. Also I will be leaving in half an hour and won't be back before deadline.

[Kath]

I think my earlier numbers there are completely wrong.

Good guys (by tally) = 6.

Bad guys = 2 (wolves).

Known innocent is 2 (Eomer and Lari) - 6 (unknown).

So if the Hunter revealed it becomes 3 - 5 (unknown).

I'm discounting myself so it becomes 3 (known innocent) - 4 (unknown).

Thus a 3/4 chance of lynching a bad guy and a 1/2 chance of lynching a wolf.

Ah ok I think I just had it back to front before. This seems to make more sense.

[Kath]

Now as to what I think of those five:

Nerwen: I was actually under the impression that she had been confirmed innocent at some point. This worries me slightly if only because my brain is clearly not working. Either she has just come across as very innocent because she is or her fellow wolves have done a very good job of staying away from her.

Gaurcrist: I really don't know what to make of this one. There is little to be gained from his posts because they're few, far between and when they are there there isn't a whole lot of substance. Could potentially be the Cobbler. A newbie but if his role said 'sow confusion and gain attention' that's what he's done.

phantom: Yeah, I'm not even going to try to guess! We should lynch him to be on the safe side.

McCaber: Eomer's 'case' against him was pretty weak but he is one that has been under my radar since the beginning. In a 'I'm aware he's playing but couldn't tell you what he's said' kind of way. Given our known wolves have so far been Fea and Agan, if he was a wolf this wouldn't be surprising. Those two are such loudmouths it would be hard to compete.

Inzil: I have a bad feeling about this one. I didn't like his early reasoning for suspicions. He has seemed to become very savvy about the game quite quickly since the first couple of Days. Have we seen any clues in the narration that Red Cap has been turned because if they have I think it could well be Inzil.

So I think I'd be tempted to leave Nerwen and phantom alone and vote for one of the other three. I only see Gaurcrist as Cobbler rather than wolf and Inzil I suppose I have more of a 'case' for.

I'm going in ten minutes so I'll hold off on voting til then in case anyone else is around.

[Kath]

Well, got to go.

++INZIL

[the phantom]

The voting to this point-
Eomer for tp (1)
Kath for Inzil (1)

Anyone else around?

And has anyone besides Gaurcrist missed a vote before? If so you are in danger of Modfire, and that would be a silly way to lose this thing.

[Lariren Shadow]

I'm around, I just have nothing much to say. Besides the phantom and Nerwen most of those who are left have been quiet, making it difficult to find really anything.

I've gone though posts and come up with very little about people in general. Even with knowing that Eomer is Hansel there is not much to go on.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

And has anyone besides Gaurcrist missed a vote before? If so you are in danger of Modfire, and that would be a silly way to lose this thing.

I think modfire is only if you miss two consecutive Days.

Anyway, phantom, just so you know, I am most likely going to vote for you or Gaurcrist as being the two most suspicious people. (Surprising, no?)

If you'd like to try a bit harder at convincing me you're innocent, be my guest.

Then there's the other three– among whom at least one villain must be hiding... and I barely have a clue about any of them.

McCaber – I don't find Eomer's case on him to be exactly overwhelming... but he's giving me bad vibes.
Inziladun. – Has managed to slip through the whole game without anyone taking much notice of him. Tends to just follow others' suspicions. Cautious newbie feeling his way... or something more?
Kath. – *shrugs* She's hardly played.

EDIT:X'd with Lari.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

If you'd like to try a bit harder at convincing me you're innocent, be my guest.

It's all very simple. Fea revealed as a false Seer. I noticed her Ranger-slip and so knew she was not genuine. I immediately buddied up to her and Agan and tried to become in everyone's mind a clear RB so as to increase the RB's chances of being Night-killed late in the game and decrease my chances of being picked as LRC. Either you believe it or you don't, but logic would certainly support my claim.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I think modfire is only if you miss two consecutive Days.

Indeed.

20 minutes.

[the phantom]

Nerwen is the person I'm most confident is not the Hunter, so I'm inclined to gamble in her direction. However, since she's still holding her vote, I'm worried that I may need to compromise on a candidate to keep myself from being lynched.

Meh.... Gaurcrist seems like too obvious a vote. Inzil could be guilty but he's been reasonable, so I'm tempted to keep him alive. I liked McCaber early on but I haven't heard much from him lately. Fading into the shadows...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

It's all very simple. Fea revealed as a false Seer. I noticed her Ranger-slip and so knew she was not genuine. I immediately buddied up to her and Agan and tried to become in everyone's mind a clear RB so as to increase the RB's chances of being Night-killed late in the game and decrease my chances of being picked as LRC. Either you believe it or you don't, but logic would certainly support my claim.

Okay... it could be as you say– could just as easily be one of my scenarios, so I'm not willing to trust you.

However, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for the moment–

++Gaurcrist.

EDIT:X'd with the phantom and mod.

[the phantom]

Inzil, McCaber- are you two around?

[Inziladun]

Overslept, here and quickly reading.

Originally Posted by Kath

Well, got to go.

++INZIL

My first vote! I feel important now.

[McCaber]

I'm here. Are you planning anything special?

[the phantom]

Hello, people, there's only about 10 minutes left!!

McCaber, Inzil, and Lari- what are your leanings?

[Lariren Shadow]

So that leaves it at one all for tp, Inzil, and Gaur.

And ten minutes to go people.

...and yes I'm including myself in that.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by McCaber

I'm here. Are you planning anything special?

Well, I wouldn't mind lynching Nerwen if I can get everyone to help.

If not, then I'll settle for anything else besides me being lynched.

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Hello, people, there's only about 10 minutes left!!

McCaber, Inzil, and Lari- what are your leanings?

I personally still don't like Nerwen, but my opinions of her got better.

Other than that, I feel like I'm going to be taking a shot in the dark anyway I vote.

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Well, I wouldn't mind lynching Nerwen if I can get everyone to help.

Apparently we think alike. At least on that.

[McCaber]

I'm still leaning Gaurcrist, but I could go with Nerwen even though she's not my top choice.

Inzil has been reasonable and helpful the whole game. I like him for now.

[the phantom]

About Gaurcrist- he's been voting for me no matter what.

When I was good, he voted me. When I was the RB, he voted me. Now surely a Wolf wouldn't try and vote for his own RB? Or since lynching Fea was a given anyway he decided it wouldn't hurt?

I dunno.... I just think Gaurcrist is probably nothing special, or the RB at worst. I think voting for him is just plain too easy. Though if he's a Wolf I'll be ticked. Also be ticked if he's the Hunter, but I kind of doubt that.

[the phantom]

++Nerwen

(and the final two wolves are probably Inzil and McCaber )

[McCaber]

Well then, if we're all in favor

++Nerwen

[Lariren Shadow]

I have no idea what to think of Gaurcrist other than he seems to have a personal vedetta(yes I know that's not spelled right) against tp.

[Nerwen]

Can I ask why you all three are suddenly talking about lynching me?

Where did that come from?

Oh, you have lynched me.

Fine.

[the phantom]

So, Nerwen, are we making a huge mistake?

[Lariren Shadow]

I haven't liked the feeling I've been getting from you most of the game, see my longer post a few days ago. Where I only thought that the guilty ones were you, Fea, and Agan and I can't even remember if that was before or after Mira revealed.

[Nerwen]

Yes.

EDIT:X'd with Lari.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by the phantom

McCaber, Inzil, and Lari- what are your leanings?

Kath apparently has it in for me at the moment, thinking I'm LRC.

Voting Gaurcrist does seem too obvious, but he hasn't been here at all this Day, and he's an obvious distraction for the good side.

Phantom, I don't know why, but your sudden bout of being reasonable gives me a worse feeling than I had before.
It's my fault I don't have as much time to double check everything as I intended

++Phantom