Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Macalaure]

On Day 1, he starts goofing around and then jumps straight into lists, none of which seem particularly useful, I hate to say. I noticed that he was very quick to explain himself to Huin at the mildest criticism.

Originally Posted by Boro

What you must ask though is not "would a wolf stick their head out that early?" but would a Legate-wolf do it? With a pack of 5 there's higher incentive to start out bolder.

Originally Posted by Boro

In the larger group of "under the radars" there are most assuredly wolves. Larger group, easier to stay on the outskirts. A Day 1 vote for a player in this group is low risk, but low reward. Because a lot of the "under the radar" Day 1 behavior is also a sign of ordo villagers who don't have much to say, due to a lack of Day 1 information. And they are forced to wait for information to go on.

Then there's a smaller group of "loud/active" players, and the "under the radars" need this group to stir conversation/discussion. A day 1 "shot in the dark" vote for someone in the smaller group is higher risk, but also higher reward. It's a smaller group so better percentage the shot hits a wolf. Higher risk though because that shot could also inadvertently hit a gifted.

He makes a shockingly negligible amount of sense here.

In #169 he tallies up fake votes (cue rolleyes), responds to Lommy calling him weird, and chimes in on the LPG thing, which was the talk of the Day anyway. He ends up voting for Pitchwife after contributing next to no substance for a whole Day. However, when prodded by Kath he is able to provide some insight into his thinking.


Agrees with Inzil on Eonwe's throwaway vote. In his vote analysis he pretty much ignores all votes not for Gala. I feel like we don't know enough roles yet to tell whether this was conveniently done or because he can only follow so many strings at a time. We all do that, so I don't want to outright suspect him for admitting to it. Huin, however, did vote for Gala, and this bit here is interesting:

Originally Posted by Boro

(Rikae also in their final post to us pointed out the growing "let's not start a wagon against Brinn sentiments - pointing to Huey, Inzil and Lottie). If Brinn's innocent, Inzil and Lottie's vote still look suspicious

Pointing to Huin, but no, not really.

He declares Brinn his main suspect, because she fell into Rikae's trap and he explains it at length in #363. He responds to Huin's criticism with a one-liner, though a sensible one to be fair. In #436 he defends himself quite defensively at people criticizing his focus on one group. I still get what he's saying, but still, depending on roles, this might have been very convenient. I think this is a very interesting thing to keep in mind as more roles are revealed.

When Huin came up as a possible lynch, before him getting a vote, he says it might be too late to start considering him. Instead he analyzes Lhuna, finds her suspicious, but shows no intention of actually voting for her. He lets time pass as the deadline nears.

Originally Posted by Boro

Of those who currently have votes. I do not want to vote Lommy, Inzil or Huey.

Originally Posted by Boro

I've said nothing about Mac, because everyone else has said quite a lot. He looks the suspicious and paranoid part and then he doesn't. His vote for Lommy doesn't feel right, but could be from I just don't find Lommy suspicious.

This has a feel of willingness to lynch while keeping his hands clean. One the one hand, on the other. I didn't say anything, but others have. Yuck.

He's been pushing for Brinniel, if you can call that pushing. He seems rather relaxed to drop that in light of the QT vote, and now is happy to go with the flow. Afterwards says that Brinniel moving on to other things and me insisting on the frame-stuff affected his decision. Meh, fair enough, I suppose, except his suspicion on Brinn was solely based on Rikae's trap on Day1, as far as I can see, so I'm not sure this goes together 100%.

Votes fairly late. If he already made up his mind to vote for me and not Huin, why the wait?


ToDay, his analysis of Huin is sadly sparse in actual conclusions. He does find it unlikely that me and Huin are both wolves. So, go me? There's not much else to say for the whole day. He talks a lot, but instead of being rock-solid, his points all feel like silly putty.


Boro feels off. The thing that gives me pause is, when prodded, he actually gives very solid reasons. What he said in response to Kath regarding the LPG, the thought process with Rikae's trap, all that is solid.

There's some suspicious connection with Huin, but not a strong one. Might just be the normal amount that any innocent randomly accumulates over time. I don't want to be "paranoid"...

He's not putting me at ease at all, though. He's definitely in my list of suspects, just not at the top at this point. There are heads more ready for rolling. I feel with him, as we get hopefully more valuable info over the next Day or so, things will clear up with him. Then he can either have my axe, or my axe in the back.


I missed a whole bunch of posts thinking and writing this out. Catching up now.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Will try not to (and I got you earlier).


Right now I'd prefer Lottie or maybe Eönwë, but I can get behind Brinn if need be.

I knew you did, but here we are.


++Lottie


Equal parts suspicion and self-preservation.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Been wondering whether that remark before was just a remark or how hard you'd go on that. Okay. Now how do we deal with this situation, huh? Well, who are you hunting, or who do you claim you are hunting? Might help to take into account?

+1

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Out of curiosity, which ones?

Eönwë and to a lesser degree Greenie. Not sure about the others.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'm looking through Lottie's posts of toDay and just read this:

So Zil explains why he didn't want to vote Hui because he mistrusted Lottie and me, and Lottie all but goes up in flames saying "How dare you still suspect us when we lynched a wolf?" When he actually hadn't said anything about whether he still suspected us or not. Then follows it up with this:


Now this kind of self-gratulation irks me. If you help lynch a wolf and people think you look good for it, you gratefully accept that, but you don't use your vote to exonerate yourself and say you look good for it, because that makes it seem that the vote was, well, calculated to be used this way.

Eh. People are allowed to be like "hey I did a good job, go me" and pat themselves on the back sometimes.

[Thinlómien]

Are you guys really buying Sally's claim?

I absolutely don't. It's a very convenient wolf ploy, given that it will either 1) drag out the real hunter so the wolves don't need to worry about targeting them by accident, 2) go uncontested because I think an actual hunter would consider twice before revealing because it effectively makes their gift useless.

If Sally was the real hunter and thought she's gonna get lynched, wouldn't she let us do it and gun for whoever she thinks is the most suspicious, then let us analyse the bandwagon against known innocent her the Day after? We're not yet at a point where we can't afford lynching an innocent. I'm aware it's a question of playing style and how many risks you want to take, but if I was in Sally's position and the hunter I would never ever reveal.

Yeah, not buying it.


ezit: xed with everyone on this page

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Wolves like confusing the village just as much as cobblers do.

Sure, but not in ways that will get them immediately suspected. Wolves play safer than Cobblers do, on the whole, because it's more important for them to stay alive.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Are you guys really buying Sally's claim?

I absolutely don't. It's a very convenient wolf ploy, given that it will either 1) drag out the real hunter so the wolves don't need to worry about targeting them by accident, 2) go uncontested because I think an actual hunter would consider twice before revealing because it effectively makes their gift useless.

If Sally was the real hunter and thought she's gonna get lynched, wouldn't she let us do it and gun for whoever she thinks is the most suspicious, then let us analyse the bandwagon against known innocent her the Day after? We're not yet at a point where we can't afford lynching an innocent. I'm aware it's a question of playing style and how many risks you want to take, but if I was in Sally's position and the hunter I would never ever reveal.

Yeah, not buying it.

Oh, did she finally claim it? I know she was softing it earlier. Didn't buy it then, don't buy it now. (Sorry, Sally, but this is way too shades-of-G55 for me.)

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Oh, did she finally claim it? I know she was softing it earlier. Didn't buy it then, don't buy it now. (Sorry, Sally, but this is way too shades-of-G55 for me.)

Cobbler child stole my actual role thunder.

[Boromir88]

Great. Just what I need.

At least there's more time to look at this one than the 45 seconds G55 gave.

[Pitchwife]

If sally had already sent in a pick but has second thoughts about it, then it would make sense for her not to want to be lynched. As I took it she seemed to indicate with her earlier '...depending on how my suspicions play out'.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'm looking through Lottie's posts of toDay and just read this:

So Zil explains why he didn't want to vote Hui because he mistrusted Lottie and me, and Lottie all but goes up in flames saying "How dare you still suspect us when we lynched a wolf?" When he actually hadn't said anything about whether he still suspected us or not. Then follows it up with this:


Now this kind of self-gratulation irks me. If you help lynch a wolf and people think you look good for it, you gratefully accept that, but you don't use your vote to exonerate yourself and say you look good for it, because that makes it seem that the vote was, well, calculated to be used this way.

Was I supposed to pretend it didn't happen? It's not like I said "okay, guys, I'm confirmed!!!".

I see Sally claims Hunter. I'd be happy to vote for Zil or Boro instead, looks like Zil is the more likely option right now, so I'll probably go that direction.

[Thinlómien]

I mean, even if Sally is indeed the hunter, don't we want to give her a shot?

Think about it. If I'm right and she's bluffing, we win.

If I'm wrong and she's indeed the hunter, well, then I would trust her to have a faily high chance to take a wolf with her, which is also a pretty good outcome.

(Yeah, I know in the worst case we could lose two innocents but hey, that's the game. If Sally is the hunter let her do her job. I trust her to pick wisely.)


edit: xed with everyone

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't believe Sally, but equally - we shouldn't lynch her. If she's real, we force the wolves to kill her; if she's fake, the real Hunter hunts her. Easy enough.

[Loslote]

On the other hand, if I'm her current pick, I would really rather not lynch her, please and thank you.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

If sally had already sent in a pick but has second thoughts about it, then it would make sense for her not to want to be lynched. As I took it she seemed to indicate with her earlier '...depending on how my suspicions play out'.

Why on earth would the hunter send the pick earlier than she has to?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

If Sally was the real hunter and thought she's gonna get lynched, wouldn't she let us do it and gun for whoever she thinks is the most suspicious, then let us analyse the bandwagon against known innocent her the Day after? We're not yet at a point where we can't afford lynching an innocent. I'm aware it's a question of playing style and how many risks you want to take, but if I was in Sally's position and the hunter I would never ever reveal.

This is why I asked her to tell us who she's Hunting.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I knew you did, but here we are.

Sorry, from where did you "know" he did? Couldn't find any way of him talking about it after that "Very Bad Idea" mention, at least.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm playing from my phone - someone remind me, who besides Sally (and me) votes for Mac yesterday?

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Am I right to say that the suspicions directed towards Inzil mainly has to do with vote placement, and his role in the whole “don’t mention the ranger’ saga?

And Sally are suspected for not acting like innocent Sally + vote placement, and i guess we can add claiming to be giftet to the list (after first heavily implying it).

I haven't got time to go through all posts again, so please let me know if I missed any of the main points.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm playing from my phone - someone remind me, who besides Sally (and me) votes for Mac yesterday?

Lommy, Greenie, Hui, Zil, Boro

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm playing from my phone - someone remind me, who besides Sally (and me) votes for Mac yesterday?

I believe this is the correct order...

Lommy
Greenie
Huey
sally
Inzil
Me
Shasta

Edit: there was a bunch of cross voting in there after Huey's vote

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

If Sally was the real hunter and thought she's gonna get lynched, wouldn't she let us do it and gun for whoever she thinks is the most suspicious, then let us analyse the bandwagon against known innocent her the Day after? We're not yet at a point where we can't afford lynching an innocent. I'm aware it's a question of playing style and how many risks you want to take, but if I was in Sally's position and the hunter I would never ever reveal.

Yeah, not buying it.

I've been pondering over this too. I just don't understand why a hunter would reveal because the point of their existence is to die and hopefully take a wolf down with them. Of course it's preferable at Night, but if she is the hunter, now they'll probably never Night kill her. And while I understand the concern about taking out another innocent, I would think Hunter Sally more likely to take that risk.

X-ing with a bunch of posts I see.

[Loslote]

And I really don't like that Sally didn't tell us who her pick would be. If you ARE the Hunter, give us all the information so we can make an informed decision!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Am I right to say that the suspicions directed towards Inzil mainly has to do with vote placement, and his role in the whole “don’t mention the ranger’ saga?

And Sally are suspected for not acting like innocent Sally + vote placement, and i guess we can add claiming to be giftet to the list (after first heavily implying it).

I haven't got time to go through all posts again, so please let me know if I missed any of the main points.

As far as I am concerned and as far as I can tell, I think these were the main points.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I mean, even if Sally is indeed the hunter, don't we want to give her a shot?

Think about it. If I'm right and she's bluffing, we win.

If I'm wrong and she's indeed the hunter, well, then I would trust her to have a faily high chance to take a wolf with her, which is also a pretty good outcome.

(Yeah, I know in the worst case we could lose two innocents but hey, that's the game. If Sally is the hunter let her do her job. I trust her to pick wisely.)


edit: xed with everyone

I don't like high-stake games.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't believe Sally, but equally - we shouldn't lynch her. If she's real, we force the wolves to kill her; if she's fake, the real Hunter hunts her. Easy enough.

I said the exact same about Kit yesterday.

I won't be voting Sally today.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lottie

And I really don't like that Sally didn't tell us who her pick would be. If you ARE the Hunter, give us all the information so we can make an informed decision!

Yes, this. She voted Lottie, but that doesn't necessarily equal hunter pick.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Loslote

And I really don't like that Sally didn't tell us who her pick would be. If you ARE the Hunter, give us all the information so we can make an informed decision!

Exactly, seconding this. SALLY!!! Tell us now (now that you have revealed your supposed role anyway) and we can make an informed decision based on this.

The sooner the better. The sooner the better. The sooner the better.

Any minute you spend with it means you are spending time making it up.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Am I right to say that the suspicions directed towards Inzil mainly has to do with vote placement, and his role in the whole “don’t mention the ranger’ saga?

And Sally are suspected for not acting like innocent Sally + vote placement, and i guess we can add claiming to be giftet to the list (after first heavily implying it).

I haven't got time to go through all posts again, so please let me know if I missed any of the main points.

I believe that's pretty much it.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't believe Sally, but equally - we shouldn't lynch her. If she's real, we force the wolves to kill her; if she's fake, the real Hunter hunts her. Easy enough.

Concur.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't believe Sally, but equally - we shouldn't lynch her. If she's real, we force the wolves to kill her; if she's fake, the real Hunter hunts her. Easy enough.

I disagree. We can't delegate Sally to the "real hunter" if she's a wolf, it's all too much possible the real hunter will make it to the endgame without getting killed. And I very much doubt the wolves would Night kill Sally now - hunters often become long lived known innocents because the wolves don't dare to kill them. In this case, it wouldn't be very beneficial for us because many of us would still not trust her, and the wolves might also like to frame her that way if she's indeed the hunter. Again, I would rather have the hunter have their shot than have them as a known innocent. And given that I don't trust Sally's reveal one bit and I would rather not drag this out in a way that forces the real hunter to come out and waste their gift that way, I would really just rather lynch her. Either she's a wolf like I very much think, or else there's the silver lining that she can still kill a wolf for us. I don't want Sally to stick around as a "known innocent" because she simply isn't credible enough to be one, even if she actually is the actual hunter.


edit: xed with everyone

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't believe Sally, but equally - we shouldn't lynch her. If she's real, we force the wolves to kill her; if she's fake, the real Hunter hunts her. Easy enough.

Except the Wolves may not kill her. Which, if she's real innocent, may be just as well, but it would still leave "what if" cloud hanging over the village.

EDIT: x-ed since my last. Heh.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't believe Sally, but equally - we shouldn't lynch her. If she's real, we force the wolves to kill her; if she's fake, the real Hunter hunts her. Easy enough.

It's too close to the deadline and we have no idea who her pick would be anyway. I'm not voting for Sally.

[Lalaith]

Mac

He makes a shockingly negligible amount of sense here.

Yep, this was what I highlighted about Boro earlier. I don't mind a wacky Boro but a waffly one worries me.
Like Legate I want Sally to tell us who she is hunting.
So much unanimity on Sally is a bit unsettling.
So I would rather go Eonwe (from the dodgy behaviour stated in my earlier post) or Boro toDay. Brinn would be acceptable (Second time taunt from QT - really?)
I am still not completely happy with Legate but because of his Huivote I feel a bit better and won't vote for him toDay.

[Thinlómien]

Okay yes good point about the hunter pick.

Who are you "hunting" Sally?

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I disagree. We can't delegate Sally to the "real hunter" if she's a wolf, it's all too much possible the real hunter will make it to the endgame without getting killed. And I very much doubt the wolves would Night kill Sally now - hunters often become long lived known innocents because the wolves don't dare to kill them. In this case, it wouldn't be very beneficial for us because many of us would still not trust her, and the wolves might also like to frame her that way if she's indeed the hunter. Again, I would rather have the hunter have their shot than have them as a known innocent. And given that I don't trust Sally's reveal one bit and I would rather not drag this out in a way that forces the real hunter to come out and waste their gift that way, I would really just rather lynch her. Either she's a wolf like I very much think, or else there's the silver lining that she can still kill a wolf for us. I don't want Sally to stick around as a "known innocent" because she simply isn't credible enough to be one, even if she actually is the actual hunter.


edit: xed with everyone

I don't think I have ever seen anything make as little sense as this post.

Very weird.

[Loslote]

Alright, alternatives. There are 10 votes left to be cast. I'd rather vote for Zil or Boro, where does everyone else stand?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Alright, alternatives. There are 10 votes left to be cast. I'd rather vote for Zil or Boro, where does everyone else stand?

Zil or Lhuna

[Macalaure]

Ka, I'm so sorry!

Originally Posted by Greenie

If I understand you right, and remember right, I think this is down to me not writing clearly – the “he” in that quote referred to you, not Huin. As in, your suspicion of Huin came after you had already voted for Lommy so you couldn’t act on it whether you’d have wanted to or not. (Please poke me again if that’s wrong too though!)

Gotcha.


I don't get what the quarantined are trying to accomplish with their vote. We know it's still in evil hand. It seems quite unlikely Brinn will be lynched toDay. If this is some attempt at reverse psychology, it's not working.

Originally Posted by Boro

Are you glad we didn't have to autopsy you to find the answers? If you're upset I still have the butter.

Bring the butter, my body is ready!

Originally Posted by Inzil

You know what?
I'm not going to hold out to try to save myself.

This coming before Sally's reveal I find perplexing.

Originally Posted by Sally

Hey, don't lynch your hunter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't trust this, but it gives me enough pause to hold my vote for a bit.

[Pitchwife]

Thing is, if we lynch sally and she hits a wolf, we're one wolf down but we also loose an innocent. Whereas if we lynch a wolf instead -

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

So much unanimity on Sally is a bit unsettling.

Personally I find her so glaringly suspicious that if she's indeed a wolf and we lynch her, I'm not giving anyone a free pass toMorrow for voting her. I doubt all her packmates would try to pooh-pooh away her behaviour which has been eyebrow raising to say the least, starting from the vote yesterDay. *hammering the point for a billionth time*


edit: xed with everyone

[Nogrod]

Votes

THE Ka -> Sally
QT -> Brinn
Eönwë -> Sally 2
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Sally 3
Lommy -> Sally 4
Inzil -> Brinn 2
Sally -> Lottie