WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Even if there was confirmation, though, the hunter would be crazy to reveal now, considering how useful he could be late in the game. All we would gain is one kill-less Night, since the Night's Watch would take of him, but the next Night he'd be bread fried in bacon grease.

Agree with Mac here.

It's been a while since I played, but are we still doing the "Day One is useless at the time!" "No it's not!" debate that used to define the beginning of games?

Or are the usual tricks to avoid it so clichéd that they become suspicious, twice over?

Like Lommy's (of course) and Boro's decidely leonine behaviour thus far? Hmmm?

String them up!

[Volo]

We could use this time to forge an alliance with the Lovers.
Early in the game it makes sense not to pressure the Lovers.
It also makes sense for the Lovers to try and hunt down Lannisters,
since Lannisters are the greatest danger to the Lovers at this moment.
If the advantage shifts to the Lannisters in a couple of Days,
we might want to reconsider (meaning making personal notes on Lover suspicion).
I'll count the Bear as a kind of friendly neighborhood Assassin to begin with.

[Volo]

Mac, thank you for your very educational demonstration. Great minds...

Well, I'll go see if this inn has more paper hidden somewhere. Unless one of you would like to interpret my sign language.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Even if there was confirmation, though, the hunter would be crazy to reveal now, considering how useful he could be late in the game. All we would gain is one kill-less Night, since the Night's Watch would take of him, but the next Night he'd be bread fried in bacon grease.

Hm, why crazy? That scenario sounds pretty good to me. The real Targaryan reveals. Can't see any reason why anyone would counter-reveal. Now we know (s)he is an ordo which is good. If the wolves choose to night-kill this known Ordo they need two nights to do so providing the Ranger gives protection, which is also good for the Village, since the Lions lose a night's kill and gets neither the Ranger nor the Seer during that time.

Sure, the Hunter may become useful later in the game, but (s)he might just as well become harmful taking down another innocent at death which may come at any time (in true Got style).

WW is a game of numbers and the way I see things, the numbers favour a quick reveal.

Originally Posted by Mac

I agree that we will probably be able to figure out the identity of a hunter surviving a Night kill without too much trouble (after all, who would fake reveal at that point, other than maybe a cobbler?).

Agan said that the narration will reveal that.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I agree with the scenario analysis, but the random element makes it a crapshoot. If they do get to kill someone, we have to hope too that they make a helpful choice, as usual.

Of course, it's all completely random and we can't predict what will happen, but it's good for us to get discussion going by considering the possible outcomes.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well! The next step is figure out how those prints got there! They are animal prints, but I don't see animals in our company - therefore the animals must have turned into people. And we all know who turns into people - witches! And what do we do with witches? We burn them! And what else burns? Wood! And since woods floats, and ducks also float, the killers must weigh the same as a duck! Do we happen to have a set of scales in the inn? This could blow the whole mystery out of the water!

Wow, I've missed this place so much

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

- also, consequently, my maths say that if the bear and his lover choose to side with the wolves, then the worst case scenario is that we can have a total out in the open vote conspiracy that can make the village lose as early as Day4.

......

In conclusion, we should focus on finding the wolves, but personally I'm not too saddened if the bear and/or his lover become casualties in our wolf hunt. No offense, but I will feel safer without a bear roaming in the Night, even if the bear is trying to kill wolves, because I don't trust anybody's judgement more than the collective judgement of the village. (And honestly I don't see the cobbler as a big problem.)

For the first part: if the bear and the maiden decide to side with the wolves it isn't like they can start communicating with each other or anything, so I don't know why you think they'll be able to plot together so easily, they don't know who each other are anymore than we know who they are, so it's difficult for the bear and maiden to really help them out. I guess you mean if the numbers are right the bear/maiden could just reveal themselves and make sure they vote the way the wolves want? Yeah, I suppose that is possible, but that's always possible with lovers.

The Lovers won't be making any specific allegiances until later in the game when it's clear which side is doing better. If we manage to get a wolf early on then they'll probably side more with us, but if we go days without being successful they probably won't. If we want them on our side we have to do well, basically.

For your second part: interesting that you said you were panicked about the double night kills but you want to focus on the wolves. I think killing one of either the bear or maiden is a better goal cause that's killing one person to decrease the night kills, rather than killing 3. Though, I don't know exactly how we could go about targeting the bear/maiden specifically, my hope is one gets taken out at night so we don't get a cobbler, but even if we lynch one getting a cobbler isn't the end of the world. Plus, once one of them is dead it could be easy to figure out who their lover was based on their posts (if we do get a cobbler).

So I'm off to work. Depending on how busy I am today I should be able to pop on a few times.

edt: ah, page 2! x'ed since Agan

[WythDryden]

Originally Posted by skip spence

So we'd better focus on trying to reveal the Lions rather than the Lovers, since they are clear enemies. That's the way I see things at least.

*Puts his suspicious eyes on* Getting nervous eh?

Edit: Well since reading page 2 and the posts agreeing with the strategy, maybe you are innocent after all. I'll still be keeping my eye out though. I have yet to fully trust any of you. Wilwarin's posts almost seem too helpful to be genuine after all.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Hm, why crazy? That scenario sounds pretty good to me. The real Targaryan reveals. Can't see any reason why anyone would counter-reveal. Now we know (s)he is an ordo which is good. If the wolves choose to night-kill this known Ordo they need two nights to do so providing the Ranger gives protection, which is also good for the Village, since the Lions lose a night's kill and gets neither the Ranger nor the Seer during that time.

The bear still gets a kill (though one kill a night is obviously better than two) and the Targaryan doesn't have any knowledge to impart to us. She/he is just a known innocent to bolster the village numbers. Which isn't bad, but at this point a reveal isn't the best idea.

I've never played a game with Lovers before, so you bring up a good point. I had not thought that they might choose to support the lions. *clutches head* So basically there are four baddies we need to take out -- three lions and a bear -- plus the remaining lover who will be working against us if we lynch the other one. (Someone please correct me if I've got that wrong!)

It hadn't occurred to me either. Since they both have to make it to end game I assumed they'd just change alliances from day to day as the need demanded. Or be submarinish to avoid detection.

Originally Posted by Sally

You'll have to forgive dear Kit. She learned to count by cutting into her fingers one at a time, and she accidentally removed a few during the process, so math is a bit difficult for her.

No one understands my illiterate status better than you, my dear.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

For the first part: if the bear and the maiden decide to side with the wolves it isn't like they can start communicating with each other or anything, so I don't know why you think they'll be able to plot together so easily, they don't know who each other are anymore than we know who they are, so it's difficult for the bear and maiden to really help them out. I guess you mean if the numbers are right the bear/maiden could just reveal themselves and make sure they vote the way the wolves want? Yeah, I suppose that is possible, but that's always possible with lovers.

Agreed.

My biggest fear with the lovers is the extra kill at night. Though, they could take down a lion with this kill, which would be wonderful. And while a cobbler can be dangerous later in the game I'm not overly concerned if we lynch a lover and get one. Ideally the lions will target one and the remaining lover will be on the village's side. I'd really like to be rid of a second kill at night, but I'm not about to actively hunt the lovers. But I'm also not going to sweat it too much if we lynch one instead of a lion.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer

Like Lommy's (of course) and Boro's decidely leonine behaviour thus far? Hmmm?

Come on, when don't you suspect me on Day1?

And as reply to Volo and Wilwa:

Let's assume a worst case scenario. That is we lynch only innocents, the wolves and the bear kill only innocents, the seer doesn't dream of wolves, the ranger doesn't make saves and the hunter doesn't kill a wolf.

We are now 16 innocents (ordos + gifteds), 2 lovers and 3 wolves. Assuming what I said above, there will be 13 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day2, 10 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day3, 7 + 2 + 3 on Day4 and 4 + 2 + 3 on Day5.

Okay, I screwed up my maths a bit earlier because I somehow counted that we would be 5 + 2 +3 on Day4. In that case, the wolves and the lovers might just all have revealed and teamed up after one innocent has voted. (Given that both teams would have reason to assume the innocent is innocent.) Now I see we're only screwed on Day5 if everything goes wrong.

Now I see the odds aren't quite that bad (and anyway, in most games the village starts to be screwed if they don't kill any wolves before Day4) so maybe I shouldn't try to scare you guys. The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

I guess my inner pessimist just keeps thinking this game can't be as easy as it looks.

I mean, seriously:

16 (including a regular seer and ranger and a hunter albeit a weaker one) against 3, + 2 that are yet to pick sides but for whom it makes way much more sense to side with the village and that can kill wolves too.

It can't be that easy, can it?

And see, Volo, someone proved Lommy's ominous maths wrong.

I should probably shut up though. I seem to have created a habit of making a fool of myself on Day1. *would insert a self ironic smiley if I hadn't run out of the quota* I'll be back later!


edit: xed with Wyth and Kit!

[Gil-Galad]

Granted that the double night kills are scary, but keep in mind that Lions and the Bear will ideally choose their marks based on the days results. The Bear's greatest threat would be Lions, and would be smart to hunt them out first. On the flip side, the Lions are right to be afraid of the Bear at night and would see that threat gone immediately, anyway possible.

Whatever happens happens, but i feel a hunt for the bear first would be a waste of effort on our part. Balance the playing field and hunt us some lions.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

We are now 16 innocents (ordos + gifteds), 2 lovers and 3 wolves. Assuming what I said above, there will be 13 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day2, 10 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day3, 7 + 2 + 3 on Day4 and 4 + 2 + 3 on Day5.

....

Now I see the odds aren't quite that bad (and anyway, in most games the village starts to be screwed if they don't kill any wolves before Day4) so maybe I shouldn't try to scare you guys. The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

I guess my inner pessimist just keeps thinking this game can't be as easy as it looks.

I mean, seriously:

16 (including a regular seer and ranger and a hunter albeit a weaker one) against 3, + 2 that are yet to pick sides but for whom it makes way much more sense to side with the village and that can kill wolves too.

It can't be that easy, can it?

Really it'll only get super easy if we get rid of the double night kills early, if that happens than yeah we have a huge advantage number wise. But as long as we lose two people per night our numbers are going to dwindle very fast. Hopefully we just get lucky with lynches or the baddies do accidentally kill each other. Could really go any way here. One good thing is that with this many players our gifteds are fairly well hidden.

And that's an interesting point Gil, the Lions and Bear are just as afraid of each other as we are of them, and at this point they are just as much a threat to each other.

(I'm not going to get any work done today, haha, this is such a distraction!)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

"There is only one god, yeast, and when it refuses to rise we say 'not today'."

Heh, I like that.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Wilwa of House Mormont gives good advice concerning lovers and hunter. I agree. Galadriel the wildling adds some sense, too, but Inzil of House Tully's comments on Wilwa's points seem more looking-to-be-helpful rather than actually helpful to me. Then again, Encai finds him helpful, so maybe I'm too eager to find something suspicious in what little has been posted so far.

Come now, sir. It's difficult enough to suppress my natural desire to vote for you. Then again, it might be more worrisome if you didn't fire a shot or two my way Day 1.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hmmn. I do believe Mac Connington talks sense. I've been sitting here listening to you all from my dark corner, and what do I hear? "Bears... Targaryens..." Barely a word from any of you about these murderous were-Lannisters we know are among us. I wonder whose interest it might be in to steer the conversation away from that particular topic?

Well, the Lions should be the main focus, as there are more of them. The bear kills too though, and the lack of a specific allegiance always seems to make it much harder to spot.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Right. But shouldn't the hunter do so then, right now? Isn't a known innocent much more useful to the village than an unknown hunter who may take anyone with him?

I would say the hunter revealing could be useful later in the game, when known innocents are more of a headache to the baddies. If the hunter revealed now, they could just bide their time and get him whenever.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm the Targaryen!

Originally Posted by Volo

We could use this time to forge an alliance with the Lovers.
Early in the game it makes sense not to pressure the Lovers.
It also makes sense for the Lovers to try and hunt down Lannisters,
since Lannisters are the greatest danger to the Lovers at this moment.
If the advantage shifts to the Lannisters in a couple of Days,
we might want to reconsider (meaning making personal notes on Lover suspicion).
I'll count the Bear as a kind of friendly neighborhood Assassin to begin with.

I'm more concerned about last-minute shifts of allegiance. Lovers will be looking constantly to see which was the wind blows, though it is certainly in their best interest to hunt Lions.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

My biggest fear with the lovers is the extra kill at night. Though, they could take down a lion with this kill, which would be wonderful. And while a cobbler can be dangerous later in the game I'm not overly concerned if we lynch a lover and get one. Ideally the lions will target one and the remaining lover will be on the village's side. I'd really like to be rid of a second kill at night, but I'm not about to actively hunt the lovers. But I'm also not going to sweat it too much if we lynch one instead of a lion.

I think this is sensible. At least a Cobbler won't be killing us at Night.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I took the freedom to mend your quote for you, Boro of House Bolton.

*glares at Mac*

Where is Eomer of the House Stark? I'm here to let you know declare your enemies and Bolton stands behind you. Be advised not to listen to any Tully...they're not of the North and can't help us in matters of war and death.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Oh, and, why on earth does everybody assume the hunter will be a known innocent if s/he lives an extra Day when the rules make it clear s/he can't reveal?

Well, doesn't the Hunter already use his ability by surviving an extra Day, and can kinda do whatever they want since they're as good as dead by the next Nightfall? They've spent their power already, so they have nothing left to lose by revealing.

Originally Posted by Volo

Lommy's math is ominous. I would rest easier if someone proved her wrong.

What in Westeros is that supposed to mean?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But at that point (surviving the Night-kill) the hunter would have no power to lose, so no reason *not* to reveal; at least that's how I read it.

Yes, that's what I meant. Especially since the wolves/bear always know who the Hunter is, and the village doesn't always (only if he's lynched). The wolves and lovers know who they target and Night, we don't. That means that if the Hunter stays quiet, they have a Day to mop up their tracks and we are still walking in ignorance. If we don't know who they wanted to kill, we lack that much info on who to lynch that Day. The wolves/bear have one on us.

However, and this is something I have not considered when I started writing this post, the non-kill could just be a Ranger save from their perspective. They won't know either if said person is a Hunter or an unknown someone. Heck, the Ranger could be protecting a Lion from a Bear! I need to digest this thought, I can't think of all the consequences of this right away.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

The narration will let you know if there's a ranger save or, indeed, if someone refuses to die.

Aw. That kinda kills it. Never mind the last cool thought.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I agree that we will probably be able to figure out the identity of a hunter surviving a Night kill without too much trouble (after all, who would fake reveal at that point, other than maybe a cobbler?).

Or at any rate it could draw out a desperate wolf. Either way, I can't see any negative consequence to this, but I can see several positive ones.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

The Lovers won't be making any specific allegiances until later in the game when it's clear which side is doing better. If we manage to get a wolf early on then they'll probably side more with us, but if we go days without being successful they probably won't. If we want them on our side we have to do well, basically.

I agree more or less with this statement, but it bothers me slightly that you are so sure about it.

Originally Posted by WythDryden

*Puts his suspicious eyes on* Getting nervous eh?

Edit: Well since reading page 2 and the posts agreeing with the strategy, maybe you are innocent after all. I'll still be keeping my eye out though. I have yet to fully trust any of you. Wilwarin's posts almost seem too helpful to be genuine after all.

Hey, it only takes a village to follow a clever wolf's lead into stupidity. It doesn't hurt to think differently. The fact that people agree doesn't make a thing less stupid. So if you think it's stupid, say that it's stupid, because maybe it just is.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

But then the lovers risk an easy lose. If they're in the open and we lynch one to get rid of the second Night-kill and an extra wolf vote, or just lynch them for whatever reason, they don't win. They have to be sure that IF they come out, they will not be killed OR lynched.

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

Granted that the double night kills are scary, but keep in mind that Lions and the Bear will ideally choose their marks based on the days results. The Bear's greatest threat would be Lions, and would be smart to hunt them out first. On the flip side, the Lions are right to be afraid of the Bear at night and would see that threat gone immediately, anyway possible.

On the contrary, though the Bear is somewhat unpredictalbe (ie can kill a wolf), he is their greatest helper. Heck, they can cut out the village in half the time together!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I agree more or less with this statement, but it bothers me slightly that you are so sure about it.

I'm working under the assumption that they are intelligent players. The whole point of Lovers is they want to live to the end and they could care less which team wins, so yeah, they'll wait to make any allegiances until it's clear which side is winning. It's an assumption I feel comfortable being sure about.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

On the contrary, though the Bear is somewhat unpredictalbe (ie can kill a wolf), he is their greatest helper. Heck, they can cut out the village in half the time together!

That is true, but the Bear is also just another way for the wolves to die. It depends on what kind of wolves we're working with. If they want to kill as many people as possible to win more quickly, but risk getting killed during the night, OR if they would prefer it take longer to win with only 1 night kill, but at least only be at risk of getting lynched and not night killed themselves. It's tough to know basically whether this wolf team wants to keep the Bear around, or wants to get rid of him as fast as possible. If they think they're good enough to avoid lynching for a longer amount of time than they'll probably go for the latter and be safe from night kills, but if they feel they are likely lynch choices they may want to keep the Bear around to get the numbers down faster. I don't know how useful this speculation is though, even if they want to kill him asap it doesn't mean they'll be able too any more than we'll be able to lynch him.

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I'm working under the assumption that they are intelligent players.

Assume nothing! Love can make anyone into a blithering idiot.

That is true, but the Bear is also just another way for the wolves to die. It depends on what kind of wolves we're working with. If they want to kill as many people as possible to win more quickly, but risk getting killed during the night, OR if they would prefer it take longer to win with only 1 night kill, but at least only be at risk of getting lynched and not night killed themselves. It's tough to know basically whether this wolf team wants to keep the Bear around, or wants to get rid of him as fast as possible. If they think they're good enough to avoid lynching for a longer amount of time than they'll probably go for the latter and be safe from night kills, but if they feel they are likely lynch choices they may want to keep the Bear around to get the numbers down faster. I don't know how useful this speculation is though, even if they want to kill him asap it doesn't mean they'll be able too any more than we'll be able to lynch him.

I think it would behoove the lions/wolves to not worry so much about the Bear right now. It's good for them to have two kills a night, for now. Could go either way, though.

I'm not sensing a clear direction for the voting yet... I shall have to go back and peruse your posts once again. We have yet to hear from Eonwe, A Little Green, and Nogrod. Are they quivering with fear in the corner (AKA doing real life things) or trying to fly low under the radar?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Ergo:

Wolves - Skip, Eomer and Sally or Encai, or possibly Nogrod, Lottie or me

Lovers - Wilwa and Rikae

Seer - Coppermirror (or possibly Volo)

Ranger - Eönwë

Hunter - the one of Encai and Sally that isn't a wolf, or possibly Mac


See, I solved the game purely based on ic stuff. Can I have cake now?

Going to bed now, I'm too tired to think about dynamics with a changed hunter and a werebear and their lover. You guys be good and figure it out while I sleep. I'll be back around the European noon and make more sense then.

It would be hilarious if you listed all the lions correctly here. It wouldn't even be the first time someone did that - in fact, I think a wolf has done that before.

Originally Posted by Skip

Hm, why crazy? That scenario sounds pretty good to me. The real Targaryan reveals. Can't see any reason why anyone would counter-reveal. Now we know (s)he is an ordo which is good. If the wolves choose to night-kill this known Ordo they need two nights to do so providing the Ranger gives protection, which is also good for the Village, since the Lions lose a night's kill and gets neither the Ranger nor the Seer during that time.

I can see reasons for pretty much anyone to reveal as Targaryen, if they're willing to take the risk. A Targaryen who survives a kill attempt is a known innocent, but someone who simply reveals as one will not be, as far as I'm concerned.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Now I see the odds aren't quite that bad (and anyway, in most games the village starts to be screwed if they don't kill any wolves before Day4) so maybe I shouldn't try to scare you guys. The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

Duly noted...

Edit: X'd with Encai

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

On the contrary, though the Bear is somewhat unpredictalbe (ie can kill a wolf), he is their greatest helper. Heck, they can cut out the village in half the time together!

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

That is true, but the Bear is also just another way for the wolves to die. It depends on what kind of wolves we're working with. If they want to kill as many people as possible to win more quickly, but risk getting killed during the night, OR if they would prefer it take longer to win with only 1 night kill, but at least only be at risk of getting lynched and not night killed themselves. It's tough to know basically whether this wolf team wants to keep the Bear around, or wants to get rid of him as fast as possible. If they think they're good enough to avoid lynching for a longer amount of time than they'll probably go for the latter and be safe from night kills, but if they feel they are likely lynch choices they may want to keep the Bear around to get the numbers down faster. I don't know how useful this speculation is though, even if they want to kill him asap it doesn't mean they'll be able too any more than we'll be able to lynch him.

Is there a new role that reads my mind and posts for me?

It is the beginning of the game, and if we focus on removing the Bear and succeed in that, we simply remove another threat from the Lions. Sure, the Lions and Bear might work together to take out us innocents, but I find that unlikely since:

A: They don't know who each other are, so as much as they want to be buddies, they could end up killing each other off.

B: They are a bigger threat to each other this early in the game, since this is the first day and battle lines haven't been drawn yet.

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.

It is a double-edged sword, but by removing the Bear as a threat to the villagers we help the Lions. The greatest strength the villagers have is numbers, we can take a few blows for the greater good (the greater good) while we get a lay of the land. This is the nature of the game, and we cannot fight it.

So if the Bear is reading this, I don't want you to be afraid but know that though it is (currently) 1/21 chance to be lynched, it would be a 1/18 chance for a Lion to get you. This whole talk of "getting the bear first" plays right into the Lion's hands, who just want another threat to them removed off the board in the guise of saving the innocents.

Our key enemy here is the Lions, and the rules of the game dictate we must die for the greater good (the greater good), which I wholeheartedly accept and understand.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.

If we've lynched two lions, the bear will probably side with us.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Rikae

If we've lynched two lions, the bear will probably side with us.

Just a clarification, game over when all Lions are dead right? We don't have to hunt the bear as well do we?

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Rikae

If we've lynched two lions, the bear will probably side with us.

But even if the Bear "sides" with us, he'll still be doing night kills, right? Until all of the wolves are gone he would still be a threat to us?

Originally Posted by Gil

Just a clarification, game over when all Lions are dead right? We don't have to hunt the bear as well do we?

I hadn't even thought of this....

[wilwarin538]

K, I think we're complicating it a bit. According to the admin thread "The innocents win when all Lions have been eliminated." So yeah, as soon as the Lions are all gone, the Village wins and if both Bear/Maiden are alive they win as well. In a traditional Bear game I think we would have had to keep hunting to get the Bear before we could win, but in this case he is foremost a Lover; so the traditional way for lovers to win is what applies here.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

But even if the Bear "sides" with us, he'll still be doing night kills, right? Until all of the wolves are gone he would still be a threat to us?

The way I see it:

We lynch the bear, lose a night kill but the Lions gain a cobbler.

Lions kill the bear, innocents gain a helper and we still lose a night kill.


I prefer the odds of a Lion killing off a bear/maiden then us lynching them and essentially helping the Lions. Sure, the two-kill night could kill off more innocents, but could also kill off a lion and an innocent.

Looking at the alternatives, lynching a bear/maiden will just end up helping the Lions more then helping the innocents.

[Boromir88]

It's no surprise wilwa understands bears better than the rest, but she's got a thing or two to learn about lions...

Lions the family and the name comes first. They will use the other houses as their weapons. In an inn this large, with this many families with divided loyalties and alterior motives it would be easy to lay low and let us do their dirty work, while taking out their worst threats at night.

If the lions know who the bear and/or maiden is then they'll likely only become concerned if the bear becomes a clear threat by killing off Lions. However, the wiser move would be as I said, to use us as their weapons to get one of the lovers lynched, that way the other becomes a cobbler for them. And again in this inn with this many different allegiances it can be easier for the Lions to keep their paws clean.

[Nerwen]

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.

Gil, you talk (and this isn't the only example) as though we could somehow plan this!

Edit: x'd with Boro.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

But even if the Bear "sides" with us, he'll still be doing night kills, right? Until all of the wolves are gone he would still be a threat to us?

I wonder if he has to do night kills (moddess?)

If the lovers have decided to side with us, I assume he'd use the night kills to attempt to take out the last wolf. If he has no leads, maybe he'd skip the kill?

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I can see reasons for pretty much anyone to reveal as Targaryen, if they're willing to take the risk. A Targaryen who survives a kill attempt is a known innocent, but someone who simply reveals as one will not be, as far as I'm concerned.

I don't see why anyone would fake-reveal as the Targaryan if not for some desperate self-preservation need. The risk would out-weigh the gain since the real Targaryan would start to wonder.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I would say the hunter revealing could be useful later in the game, when known innocents are more of a headache to the baddies. If the hunter revealed now, they could just bide their time and get him whenever.

Well, that they could get him whenever isn't quite true. As long as the Ranger is about, a known Ordo should count on protection every other night and going after the revealed Targaryan would be a 50/50 risk of getting a blocked kill.

But enough of that, we have to trust the Targaryan's own judgement on this.

Would the real Targaryan please stand up?

Anyway, I have to vote now since I probably won't have time to do it later. This is of course a stab in the dark but I'll go with:

++Gil Galad

He talks a lot but it's mostly echoes of what others have already said and he's careful not to be controversial. He argues whether we should go after the bear or the Lions which imo is a pretty moot point at present. This makes me suspect he's throwing out smokescreens.

X:d from Boro

[Coppermirror]

This is an interesting Day 1! Lots of useful discussion about the numbers in the inn, the bear and maiden and alliances, and the Targaryen. I rather adore the changed dynamic from the other, smaller games I've been in.

The only problem is that most of this won't directly help us catch the lions. 21 in the Inn, made up of 16 innocents, 3 Lannisters, and the Bear and Maiden of undefined allegiance. Most of the people talking will be innocent or undefined, so though it's a good day for innocent discussion and planning, the odds are really against picking out a Lannister.

I'm going to go and huddle by the fire under my many shawls and review what people have said so far. Mayhap I'll drink some ale while I'm at it.

Edit: crossed with Skip Spence

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Gil, you talk (and this isn't the only example) as though we could somehow plan this!

Edit: x'd with Boro.

I merely state an idealistic path for us to focus on. I was more saying to focus on lynching lions and letting bears be bears. As the rules state, game ends when all lions are dead. The bear could help the lions, but that risks themselves to die by them. The bear can kill off 16 villagers, and by pure luck have it and the maiden survive, but then by then the Lions will just kill them off and win.

Edit: x'd with Cop and Skip the bold

[Kitanna]

Soooo I just got back to work today after 4 1/2 days of being gone and I cannot describe my current working situation in family friendly terms. I honestly don't think I will be able to contribute much more today. I have two 15 minutes breaks between now and DL, so my vote will be entirely random or will be based on flimsy feelings if I can find a suspicious post while I skim over the thread.

I'll be more active D2 when I've caught up at the office and the weekend descends. Sorry about this, didn't realize the world feel apart when I took a few days off.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by skip

Hm, why crazy? That scenario sounds pretty good to me. The real Targaryan reveals. Can't see any reason why anyone would counter-reveal. Now we know (s)he is an ordo which is good. If the wolves choose to night-kill this known Ordo they need two nights to do so providing the Ranger gives protection, which is also good for the Village, since the Lions lose a night's kill and gets neither the Ranger nor the Seer during that time.

Well, maybe. The numbers may be on your side, but it would also mean we'd be without a proper analyzable wolf kill for two Nights. That doesn't help us.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

For your second part: interesting that you said you were panicked about the double night kills but you want to focus on the wolves. I think killing one of either the bear or maiden is a better goal cause that's killing one person to decrease the night kills, rather than killing 3. Though, I don't know exactly how we could go about targeting the bear/maiden specifically, my hope is one gets taken out at night so we don't get a cobbler, but even if we lynch one getting a cobbler isn't the end of the world. Plus, once one of them is dead it could be easy to figure out who their lover was based on their posts (if we do get a cobbler).

This one irks me a bit. Yes, the lovers can become a problem if they choose to, but the way for us to win is to take out the wolves. Unless it becomes obvious at some point that the lovers have sided with the wolves, focusing on lynching a lover is counter-productive. It's also a bit wolfish: if we lynch a lover instead of the wolves killing one, not only are we doing their work (they fear them as much as we do), but we're also gifting them a cobbler. Nobody seems to be concerned about that.

Then again, reading on, Wilwa's thoughts about the lovers seem more innocent-ish and trying-to-figure-it-out-right-ish. Then again, Wilwa is one main reason nearly all we do is talk about lovers instead about wolves, which I don't like.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I'd really like to be rid of a second kill at night, but I'm not about to actively hunt the lovers.

This one seems fishy, too. "I don't like the lovers, but I don't want to do anything about it" - Subtly leading the inn towards looking for lovers more than looking for wolves, while keeping their own hands clean. Don't like it.

Originally Posted by Lommy

The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

This would make me suspicious as well, for the same reasons as above. "The lovers are not as bad as I said before, but they're still very bad". The thing is, would a wolf state it in all-bold?

Originally Posted by Inzil

Come now, sir. It's difficult enough to suppress my natural desire to vote for you.

This coming in response to the slightest early Day One suspicion? Woah, there.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Gil, you talk (and this isn't the only example) as though we could somehow plan this!

That's confusing me a bit too. Lot of discussion about whether or not to kill lions or the bear first. Well, how do we kill any of them?

I just can't tell if the villains are likely to be engaged in this discussion or whether they'll sit at the sides.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Anyway, I have to vote now since I probably won't have time to do it later. This is of course a stab in the dark but I'll go with:

++Gil Galad

He talks a lot but it's mostly echoes of what others have already said and he's careful not to be controversial. He argues whether we should go after the bear or the Lions which imo is a pretty moot point at present. This makes me suspect he's throwing out smokescreens.

X:d from Boro

Ha, I had a feeling I would get some votes on the first day because I was being talkative (I have a history of these games of either being lynched for talking too much or not talking enough) and I am a safe lynch vote at this point. But I honestly thought my defense of the bear was being rather strong and forward, and even controversial. I wanted conflict, not to be careful, and hopefully draw out some Lions. Throw caution to the wind!

Sure it is a moot point, but what else are we talking about? Which houses we belong too (which has no effect on the role detirmination of the game that I know of)?

I have an idea of who I want to vote for, but will hold off till closer to deadline time.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I wonder if he has to do night kills (moddess?)

Yes he does. Foul murder is in his nature. Otherwise he'd probably get so hungry he'd eat the Maiden Fair. (This is actually not a threat.)

[Nogrod]

I forgot the game yesterday-evening and am now busy watching football... I'll try to get this read through though and hopefully contribute something later. Sorry.

Looking at the brighter side: for once I'm not flooding the thread with theories and 20+ posts on D1!

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by skip spence

I don't see why anyone would fake-reveal as the Targaryan if not for some desperate self-preservation need. The risk would out-weigh the gain since the real Targaryan would start to wonder.

And that's all the real Targaryen could do, unless he was a)killed and b) won the coin toss. He couldn't even counter-reveal without losing his power.

Tsk tsk - trying to neutralize our hunter for no good reason (a known ordo on Day 1? Pretty useless. A known ordo late in the game could be very valuable, as could a hunter kill) and now making the easiest of all easy votes?

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by skip spence

I don't see why anyone would fake-reveal as the Targaryan if not for some desperate self-preservation need. The risk would out-weigh the gain since the real Targaryan would start to wonder.

I played in a game once as a hunter and an ord (don't remember who) fake revealed as the hunter and basically forced me to come forward. So yeah, anything is possible, reveals should always be approached carefully, they can't always be trusted right away. And having Targaryen reveal this early wouldn't really be that beneficial, best to save it to closer to the end or give them a shot at getting a baddie. I'm completely comfortable saying that if someone claims to be Targaryen this early in the game, I will be very suspicious of them (even if they are at risk of being lynched).

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Then again, Wilwa is one main reason nearly all we do is talk about lovers instead about wolves, which I don't like.

There isn't much to say about wolves day 1, especially when there isn't anything special about them. All there is to get discussion going at the beginning is to talk about the unique aspects of the game.

x'ed with Nog and Rikae, who I agree with

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

This one irks me a bit. Yes, the lovers can become a problem if they choose to, but the way for us to win is to take out the wolves. Unless it becomes obvious at some point that the lovers have sided with the wolves, focusing on lynching a lover is counter-productive. It's also a bit wolfish: if we lynch a lover instead of the wolves killing one, not only are we doing their work (they fear them as much as we do), but we're also gifting them a cobbler. Nobody seems to be concerned about that.

Getting rid of a night kill is surely worth having a cobbler around, and I wouldn't be so sure the wolves are willing to kill the bear.

Unless it becomes obvious the bear is siding with the village, there's a good chance the wolves will appreciate the help in decreasing our numbers. They could form an alliance through hints; after all, in Lommy's scenario, the five of them could win quite quickly together.

Originally Posted by Agan

Yes he does. Foul murder is in his nature. Otherwise he'd probably get so hungry he'd eat the Maiden Fair. (This is actually not a threat.)

That's unfortunate. And all I have is a tourney sword!

Yeah, the bear will be a threat to the village in any event, and I, for one, will happily vote for anyone I strongly suspect of being black and brown and covered in hair!

++Macalaure



Oh, by the way, Skip's vote doesn't count, does it? Aren't we supposed to do this newfangled highlighting nowadays?

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Yeah, the bear will be a threat to the village in any event, and I, for one, will happily vote for anyone I strongly suspect of being black and brown and covered in hair!

++Macalaure

Uh-oh, Wyth had better watch out then, too!

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Oh, by the way, Skip's vote doesn't count, does it? Aren't we supposed to do this newfangled highlighting nowadays?

I'm willing to overlook unhighlighted votes that are clearly meant as a vote on Day 1, but if you people keep making prank votes, I do ask you to highlight your actual vote from now on. [ highlight ] ++Kath [/ highlight] results in red text.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Getting rid of a night kill is surely worth having a cobbler around, and I wouldn't be so sure the wolves are willing to kill the bear.

The cobbler isn't my greatest concern either, but the fact that no one seems to care at all makes me feel like there's something furry going on in the discussion.

Even if the wolves enjoy the presence of the bear, I'm sure they will enjoy it even more if we spend our time trying to kill him instead of going after them, thus increasing their likelihood of staying alive and then gift-wrapping them a cobbler while on top of it.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Yeah, the bear will be a threat to the village in any event, and I, for one, will happily vote for anyone I strongly suspect of being black and brown and covered in hair!

++Macalaure

*siiiiiiiigh*