WW CV: They Should Make a Movie About This! (Game Thread)

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The maniac is a powerful weapon I'd rather not lose - and would be inclined to suspect anyone who suggest us to lose her/his ability to kill a wolf. A known innocent early in the game is just one person we should not vote but whose view of things is as imperfect and indecisive as anyones.

I agree, although I also think it might be a simple matter of preference - play it safe but lose a potential advantage (Maniac reveals) or take a risk that might pay off or backfire (Maniac does not reveal). And while in this particular matter the "play it safe" -option would probably be the one the wolves would favour, it's also a valid opinion for an innocent, so I wouldn't be so quick to jump to suspecting Lommy either - especially as her NO WAIT -part looked pretty honest to me.

Okay, the above was written before Lommy's later post where she tells us to scratch her plan. That makes me think better of her. (Also - classic Lommy flip-flopping! <3)


EDIT: x-ed with Lommy, Sally and Kit

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Wait a second. I think either I am missing what you are all talking about here, or you are all absolutely off-track yourselves.

The way I see the idea with the Maniac revealing is this:

1. Maniac reveals. ("Hello. I am the Maniac.")
Two possibilities follow:

2. Nothing happens - fine. We have a known innocent.
2a. During the Night the WWs decide to kill the Maniac, which essentially means trading one of their own for a known innocent (since the Maniac always kills a Wolf during the Night).
2b. During the Night(s) the WWs pass Maniac by, ergo leaving an immortal known innocent.

3. Or there is a counter-reveal. Now we have a known pair out of which obviously one is a Wolf and other a Maniac.
3a. We lynch one of them straightaway.
3aa. We lynch the Wolf, everyone is happy and we have a known innocent.
3ab. We lynch the Maniac, we lose him and one more person, who may be 3aba. an ordo, 3abb. a Wolf, 3abc. a Gifted. Whereas 3abc. is the most awful thing that might happen, 3abb. might statistically have at least some chance of success (though of course it's all just pure chance anyway) since one would assume the WWs would rather be voting for lynching the Maniac, not for their packmate. That would also leave some interesting remaining voters to scrutinize AND in either case, we'd have a known Wolf - the other person who wasn't lynched!!!

3b. We don't lynch them, but we keep them both around until some more convenient time. Which simply might be a tactical tool to use later during the game, but might also create dangerous confusion by pulling too much attention to itself, causing controversy ("to lynch or not to lynch", "I want to lynch XY because they suggest lynching this one or that one of the two revealed 'Maniacs'" etc...), simply too much chaos. Personally I would be fond of 3a if it came to such decicion. But not to get ahead of ourselves...

...the bottom line being, I think if we want to do it, might be better to do it in a bigger village than in smaller village. So it might be good.

EDIT: x-ed since my last post

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I didn't realize the game had started! Nobody poked me .

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Since the Maniac's role pretty much revolves around dying to fullfill the role, who is to say they'll align with the village? A hunter can at least chose who they think is evil, Maniac is subject to the whims of the mod-god.

I kind of see the Maniac as a potential cobbler/hunter hybrid, a wildcard as Boro put it.

The Maniac is on the village's side. The Mod had said it several times loud and clear.

I don't know if this guarantees us a wolf lynch on Day 2 though. Say our Maniac reveals and is not believed and lynched. We lose three innocents before Day 2 starts. And there's only twelve villagers right?

But if the Maniac's reveal is believed we do have a known innocent. And in such a small village it could be dangerous to wait for a known innocent to appear.

I'd say the risks and the reward on this plan are probably about equal.

It is definitely risky. But Day 2 Wolf lynch is basically guaranteed with this. See my elaborate scheme above Because if the Maniac reveals, then I guess he/she should be believed unless there's a counter-reveal, no? I mean, no reason to lynch somebody who comes forward saying "I am the Maniac!" with no counter-reveal. And if there IS a counter-reveal, well, then one of them is a Wolf and the other is not. Simple as that. Yes, the worst ratio is losing 2 innocents to 1 Wolf, which I think is still better for the village (if you take the percentage of WWs:innocents in total, if they lose one, it hurts them more than if we lose one), especially in the beginning, OR it creates potentially an even more powerful tactical advantage - one more known piece on board, eliminating a whole one bundle of decisions we have to make (a bundle of decisions regarding one person).

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The Maniac is on the village's side. The Mod had said it several times loud and clear.

I honestly don't remember reading that. I must be blind. Scratch everything I said in my last post about that. Sorry.

[Nogrod]

EDIT: REferring here to Legate's scenario about how the different maniac-revelation scenarios would go...

I was basically thinking more subtler things - and these early Days... No pompous revelations but a wolf leaving nice little hints some others (not probably most of the people) might get to say s/he's the maniac, and then those few would start defending her/him in case of someone esle suspecting her/him, based on them catching the hints and not willing to see her/him lynched.

There is lot of that going on in a Werewolf game: that you have your thoughts and interpretations who might be bluffing or hinting at something, but you're not willing to share your reasons 100% openly becasue the wolves might not have noticed it or something like that.


EDIT: X'd since Shasta

[Thinlómien]

Don't I love this discussion...

Legate, you are saying basically exactly the same as I am, but leaving out the same vital and obvious fact: that we can get a wolf through the maniac if we leave him/her alone, if s/he reveals, we can't count on getting a wolf. (But we do get an innocent.)

Originally Posted by Legate

3b. We don't lynch them, but we keep them both around until some more convenient time. Which simply might be a tactical tool to use later during the game, but might also create dangerous confusion by pulling too much attention to itself, causing controversy ("to lynch or not to lynch", "I want to lynch XY because they suggest lynching this one or that one of the two revealed 'Maniacs'" etc...), simply too much chaos. Personally I would be fond of 3a if it came to such decicion. But not to get ahead of ourselves...

...what?? We should definitely NOT do this.

Originally Posted by Legate

...the bottom line being, I think if we want to do it, might be better to do it in a bigger village than in smaller village. So it might be good.

Agreed. Although, if I understood Sally right, she had a fair point in saying that the further the game goes, the bigger a threat the maniac is to the wolves, so maybe we want to keep him/her around to keep the wolves on their toes.

Also, if *I* was the maniac, I probably wouldn't reveal because being a known innocent is kind of boring.


edit: xed with everything after Legate's abc post

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Shasta

I didn't realize the game had started! Nobody poked me .

*poke* Does it help if I poke belatedly?

Legate, enlighten me if I'm being stupid but why would the Maniac revealing mean by default getting a wolf by Day 2? What if there is no counter-reveal nor a Night-kill of the known Maniac (which the wolves would be insane to do)?

I really need to get some sleep now (just when things are getting interesting, how typical). I don't feel comfortable voting anyone at this point given how little has happened, but I'd feel even less comfortable abstaining. The only thing that's caught my eye so far is nothing but a hunch, but here it is -

Originally Posted by Sally

That was informative, yet strangely unsettling.

Something rubs me the wrong way here, maybe it's this being the only comment she makes on the whole Maniac issue in a post otherwise comprised of banter. Safely noncommittal, leaving ends open, casually concerned but not really. Flimsy reasoning for a vote, but better than nothing, so

++ Sally

Good night!

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Something rubs me the wrong way here, maybe it's this being the only comment she makes on the whole Maniac issue in a post otherwise comprised of banter. Safely noncommittal, leaving ends open, casually concerned but not really.

Not that it particularly matters, but I said it was unsettling because Dun is a disembodied voice.

[Coppermirror]

Back and reading.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I honestly don't remember reading that. I must be blind. Scratch everything I said in my last post about that. Sorry.

Just for reference:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

The Maniac is like a Hunter in that they are in with the village. Basically an Ordo with an added quantity of unpredictability surrounding their death.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

EDIT: REferring here to Legate's scenario about how the different maniac-revelation scenarios would go...

I was basically thinking more subtler things - and these early Days... No pompous revelations but a wolf leaving nice little hints some others (not probably most of the people) might get to say s/he's the maniac, and then those few would start defending her/him in case of someone esle suspecting her/him, based on them catching the hints and not willing to see her/him lynched.

There is lot of that going on in a Werewolf game: that you have your thoughts and interpretations who might be bluffing or hinting at something, but you're not willing to share your reasons 100% openly becasue the wolves might not have noticed it or something like that.

Well I was operating under the assumption that all this is relevant only in the case somebody comes out and says "I am the Maniac." Because that's really what this whole plan seemed to me to be about.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Legate, you are saying basically exactly the same as I am, but leaving out the same vital and obvious fact: that we can get a wolf through the maniac if we leave him/her alone, if s/he reveals, we can't count on getting a wolf. (But we do get an innocent.)

Well it's up to the Wolves. A known innocent until the end is a tactical advantage, and the smaller the village, the bigger.

Agreed. Although, if I understood Sally right, she had a fair point in saying that the further the game goes, the bigger a threat the maniac is to the wolves, so maybe we want to keep him/her around to keep the wolves on their toes.

Well that would be rather the main thing I'd be interested in discussing, what is actually worse, the Maniac revealing now or the Maniac revealing later? Situationally, it can be very deadly for the Wolves sometime later (e.g. if there's only one Wolf left, or even just two, simply the less WWs, the more powerful the Maniac gets), but of course it still gives the chance to the village to accidentally mislynch the Maniac. Yeah, in that case, and that'd be probably what was Inzil's idea about the role, it would create a "wild" element in the lynching and all. Leaving the Maniac unrevealed gives more chances to the WWs to pose as one. Upper side being, however, that anyway once one Maniac reveals, then if it's a fake reveal, there can be a counter-reveal. Well, it requires some thinking. It's true that tactically, the Maniac not being known also threatens WW's Night kills. Quite drastically, that's true.

Also, if *I* was the maniac, I probably wouldn't reveal because being a known innocent is kind of boring.

That I can understand as well.

[Nogrod]

Agreeing with Lommy & Greenie. I see revealing of the maniac a waste this early on, especially when a known innocent this early isn't such an asset - which it later in the game sure is! And all this talk of wolves counter-revealing this early... no way they would do that as it would be suicidal to them.

And also a secret maniac is a major threat to the wolves later in the game - whereas a know maniac is no threat at all to them during the Nights!


EDIT: X'd with Legate

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Legate, enlighten me if I'm being stupid but why would the Maniac revealing mean by default getting a wolf by Day 2? What if there is no counter-reveal nor a Night-kill of the known Maniac (which the wolves would be insane to do)?

Yeah, of course, that was all under the headline of responding to Kitanna - her line was "I don't know if this guarantees us a wolf lynch on Day 2 though. Say our Maniac reveals and is not believed and lynched." - so I was referring to that. Obviously, we otherwise get "only" a known innocent. Which, right - I am pondering that in my post just above this one - it's a question which is better. Might be that actually the tactical advantage of threatening the WWs during their Night-planning outweighs the advantage of known innocent. So maybe we should after all leave the subject alone. In any case, if not now, what I said certainly holds value for the future.

Now to think about who to vote, though, and all that...

EDIT: x-ed with Nogrod

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Might be that actually the tactical advantage of threatening the WWs during their Night-planning outweighs the advantage of known innocent. So maybe we should after all leave the subject alone. In any case, if not now, what I said certainly holds value for the future.

I do agree.

And also, there clearly is a limit when the revelation becomes obsolete aka we can no longer afford it.

BUt the biggest question I think is the one between whether to have a known innocent (that one becoming stornger and stronger asset every Day) or to keep up the threat and possibly kiil a wolf (chances getting betgter ev ery Night).

But yeah. I'm up to some other issues before going to sleep as well...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Agreed. Although, if I understood Sally right, she had a fair point in saying that the further the game goes, the bigger a threat the maniac is to the wolves, so maybe we want to keep him/her around to keep the wolves on their toes.

Precisely, although not exactly for the reason I stated previously. If the time bomb keeps quiet, the wolves could stab them by mistake. If the maniac is out in the open, we have a known innocent, but the wolves know not to kill them at Night.

In short, we either get information now and the wolves have it too, or we stay in the dark and make the bad guys have to wolfy foot around on their Night kills. I personally prefer the latter.

[Nogrod]

Before this discussion about the maniac really bursted out I was reading the first posts to see whether there was anythnig of note.

Well there wasn't anything you'd make a vote on with any confidence - or even to help you decide on a more or less "pray it goes well" choice...

But there is a thing I noticed I'd yet bring up as being better than nothing.

Now Lottie starts the Day with a kind of pre-emption underlining how she never gets through D1. Kitanna does more or less the same in her first post ("Woe is me!") - and Legate opens his Day by making an in character disclaimer that everyone knows how he hates the films.

All of those reports are true (I'm not sure how often Kit actually gets killed on D1 but I do have a feeling it has happened a couple of times) and they could be taken as just kind of sarcastic opening when there is little else to say - and with Legate as a justified IC-banter.

Nevertheless it caught my eye as none else made that kind of opening defences.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And also, there clearly is a limit when the revelation becomes obsolete aka we can no longer afford it.

BUt the biggest question I think is the one between whether to have a known innocent (that one becoming stornger and stronger asset every Day) or to keep up the threat and possibly kiil a wolf (chances getting betgter ev ery Night).

Yep, essentially, I think there would be some ideal "breaking point" when it would be a bit late for that. But of course again, depends on the situation - amount of remaining Wolves, Gifteds or even known innocents and so on.

But now I really am starting to feel sleepy and it's getting late... so... should vote. Problem is, not very many people actually said much of substance and those who did spoke mostly sensibly, so what to make of it? Blind shot is really NOT a good option here. Whereas I shared Greenie's concern about Sally - I had exactly the same gut feeling about that post, but the problem was that it was exactly only a gut feeling - that is not enough for me. I was even contempating about pulling a Nerwen (meaning, not voting), but then no - especially with such stakes and elements (Maniac...) that's giving too much power to other hands and, well, just irresponsible. Ah well. Hope I at least x-posted with something interesting. Otherwise I'll probably have to cast my vote for someone who out of those who posted little substance (about half the people) posted significantly less substance than what one would expect they could, or somesuch, if there would be such person...

EDIT: x-ed with Sally and Nogrod

[Nogrod]

Twelve people in the "village", three of them moviephiles.

One innocent lynch toDay and one succesful kill for the wolves during the Night would leave us with 10 players at 7-3. Another such D-N cycle would result in 5-3.

It is a small game. That means: if we get it wrong one or two times out gifteds need to really do some excellent work for us to prevail.

And there is so little to go on.

A list for your / my convenience is here (to be on this page and near to be referred to).

Nerwen
Sally
Coppermirror
Loslote
Kitanna
Lommy
Legate
Nogrod
Shasta
Greenie
Kath
Boro

I need to vote soon. Any sparks on any issue or direction would be truly helpful...

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

As for the penguin's plan, I think it's a little too risky, honestly.

Help, can someone tell me who the penguin is?

- Am writing up analysis.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Help, can someone tell me who the penguin is?

- Am writing up analysis.

Lommy.

[Thinlómien]

I need to vote soon too, and I would be mostly going by gut-feeling this early. I might follow Greenie's vote on Sally (I seem to have noticed that Sally has this "friendly and reasonable" vibe whenever she's guilty and there's a bit of that now), or Nerwen, who also just seems a bit wrong somehow, like detached. But seriously I have no idea. The ones I atm think that are innocent are Kitanna and Greenie, again gut-feeling or tone of posts mostly.

edit: xed with Kit&Cop

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

A short list in an attempt to find who to vote.

Nerwen - actually, even though she did not say much, looks like she at least tried. Would not have reason to lynch her, and no reason to suspect her of inactivity.
Sally - likewise, and actually especially later posts also logically. Not really reason to vote her.
Coppermirror - nothing much. Could vote based on inactivity.
Loslote - nothing much. Same case as above, really.
Kitanna - some mis-thoughts, but that's about it, can't really be blamed for that. Otherwise nothing much.
Lommy - also, stirred quite a discussion, I don't have a reason to believe it wasn't with good interest, so not a lynch subject
Legate - is me.
Nogrod - posting, thinking, fine, could be a Wolf as much as anyone else, but not really a reason to cast a vote for him.
Shasta - so where is he... appears, disappears, so like, what?
Greenie - thinking and posting. Had to vote early, there is something creepy about her, but then again maybe it's just her. (You're welcome.)
Kath - that was the most unsubstantional one-liner (okay, two-liner) I have seen in a while, I wonder if there's a reason to believe she'll come back.
Boro - yeah, thoughts, decent. Also something slightly off about his posting, but again, gut-feeling, nothing more.

So, all in all, I don't want to vote for any of those who posted toDay and said something. I could at most vote Greenie or Boro based on slightly off gut-feeling. Or then Cop, Lottie, or theoretically Kath or Shasta based on inactivity, resp. activity essentially going to zero - but of course I understand there wasn't very much to talk about (in the case of the first two, there definitely wasn't yet, in the case of the latter two, I'd have expected them to post a bit more, but still). In fact, probably Shasta would get the worst out of that. But that's simply based on the criteria of evaluating how much who posted, nothing more. It isn't like I have any better criteria. Unless I really go with gut-feelings and such. Bah.

EDIT: ha, x-ed since my last, I see some of the people from the start are back...

[Boromir88]

Apologies for the no quotes or bolding, I'm currently on my phone and caught up through reading page 1. I should be back to my computer within an hour or so...

My original interpretation about the maniac was more based on the title "maniac" I think unpredictable nutter. And then the powers sounded like the maniac just got revenge on whatever side wronged him/her. With the unknown allegiance I thought we should be on the lookout for wolves playing a bit of a random cobbler to look like the maniac and avoid lynching.

However, with the professor's clarification that the maniac is on our side. I wouldn't especially worry about wolves acting/fake revealing as the maniac.

And no to Lommy's idea that the maniac reveals...the role is best as an unknown to everyone because then is the best chance a wolf gets taken down if they target him/her. I don't know what pack would try to take down a revealed maniac, knowing one of them would die for certainty.

[Loslote]

Okay, I'm back - sorry I was so quiet today, I had a long day of moving.

First, I would not suggest the Maniac reveals themselves toDay. The potential to catch a wolf unawares at Night is, I think, more valuable than the potential to catch a suicidal wolf - which is what that wolf would have to be to counter-reveal at this point.

I found Greenie's vote more innocent than not - there really wasn't much to go on when she voted, and I can see where she got her gut feeling vote from (I don't share that gut feeling, but I can understand it). Lommy strikes me as seeming innocent, too, by virtue of her slight flip-flop over her plan - that could either be a wolf anxious to avoid committing to a potentially suspicious plan or an innocent genuinely concerned that her idea might not have been as helpful as it had been intended. I'd be less inclined to vote for either of them.

Legate, for no real reason, strikes me as a little suspicious. Nothing vote-worthy, but his overall tone comes across as a little too careful for my taste.

Add in Nog, who has seemed mostly fine so far, and you've got the bulk of the posters thus far. Not a whole lot to go on, so if someone would say something incriminating soon, that'd be appreciated!

EDIT: xed since Cop

[Nogrod]

Lottie, Kath, Shasta - one post each with no content at all from all of them. Kath makes a sensible sentence concerning the role of the maniac but the other two do basically nothing (Lottie posts as one of the first but Shasta relatively late on the game - which doesn't mean he couldn't have been in a hurry). But none of them promises anythning - like coming back sometime... Kath probably isn't as it is quite late there as well (prove me wrong Kath!).

Boro - Three posts instead of one but nothing more than the above three - except his rather good point on the maniac (even if his interpretation of the role is a bit odd).

Coppermirror - Belongs more or less to the same club, but seeing now that I am, that she's making a list I'd like to see it first as if whether there is a contribution there - unless it takes on long time to get ready and I need to go to sleep.

The Finnish department: Lommy, Greenie and Legate (yeah, him too in this "Finnish -camp") have been active and thoughtful and therefore are assets to us whatever they are as they make the game by providing ideas and discussion.

That leaves Nerwen, Kitanna and Sally who have all been in a way suspicious (not strongly but a little) but also been reasonable enough to backtrack on their error (Kit & Sally) or at least tried when there was nothin g going on (Nerwen).

Hmm... not easy to choose a pick I'd trust would be right.


EDIT: X'd with a couple last ones - partly doing away with the points expressed in this post...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

That leaves Nerwen, Kitanna and Sally who have all been in a way suspicious (not strongly but a little) but also been reasonable enough to backtrack on their error (Kit & Sally) or at least tried when there was nothin g going on (Nerwen).

Oh... that didn't mean these three are going to be my choices...

"That left" those three to say something about. It might be one of the three - or then one of the non-contributers I'd vote toDay (the problem with the latter is that voting early you can't say who is going to end up a non-contributer - but on the other side of the coin: you can't just not-vote someone because s/he is going to (or could) post after you).

A dilemma (trilemma, quadrilemma, quintilemma...), as D1's always are,

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay. Time to vote. I think I really have to go based on feeling I get from the posts rather than anything else, since there is really no other criteria I can use. Some of the non-posters-before have shown up and posted, so let's hope for more. But I can't be here for DL.

Essentially I could vote - for the slight uneasiness-feeling from the posts - Greenie or Boro, who has posted now again and quite sensibly, in fact. Still something unsettled me about it a bit, but only a bit. The other option is some of the totally silent people, out of which the one I'd pick would be Kath, who was around, quoted the Mod, and disappeared. Others either were around and/or I have a reason to expect them back.

So, with all that, and after about ten minutes of consideration, it would be,

++Boro

since I don't want to make a completely throwaway vote, and this way I am at least making a vote for someone who (I presume) would be still around and can make a case for himself if it became relevant (unlike if I voted for Greenie or probably Kath).

Gotta sleep! Good night, folks.

[Thinlómien]

This is hard and it's already past my bedtime.

As I'm pretty sure there will still be plenty more lynch candidates toDay, I will not make the list longer. So I vote

++Sally

and we'll see how the pot stirs.

The rest of you bunnies, choose well.

[Nerwen]

Here and reading.

[Nogrod]

Sally, Coppermirror, Boro, Kath and Kitanna might be my "shortlist" (with a little bad feeling about Legate haunting me - even if I think I agree with him on the issue in the end). I just can't vote Lottie again on D1.

Of those Sally already has a vote and I'm not sure I suspect her enough to give her another. BUt her carefulness not to suspect anyone is looking too careful.

Coppermirror might be posting a list anytime and I'd hate vote her just before she actually contributes.

If Boro is just coming in through a mobile it would explain why he's still a bit out of touch about what is going on (see his latest post) and it would be nasty to vote someone who is (possibly) going to contribute a lot in just a few hours.


Kath is one of the loveliest persons this earth carries on it, but she will probably not post anything else and will count on getting through - whatever her role - and that is annoying. Could vote just for that as she would do that also as a baddie.

Kitanna could be the other choice: reasonable, ready to correct her errors but yet contributing little by way of suspecting anyone (to keep the good faith with everyone) - and for also being online and following the discussion (to answer a random question) but not taking part in it.


EDIT: X'd with two votes & Nerwen reporting in...

[Nogrod]

Okay. My bedtime as well (approaching 3AM).

++ Kitanna

Starting with self-defence / martyr-role, being careful overall and also to not suspect others, hanging around but not contributing... Enough for a D1 vote where there is so little to go after - and too many reasons not to vote someone else on D1 -basis.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Speaking of psychics, Shasta will use half of his posts for praising Nerwen (and vice versa, but he always seems to be the one to start).

And why shouldn't I? We were married, once.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Lots of talk about the Maniac. But it looks like the role is a wildcard innocent. A chaotic good perhaps? Or maybe chaotic evil if the Maniac chose to align with the wolves. (Oh my, I wish my friend had never taught me how to play D&D. It's infiltrating my life.)

First major thought. Inzil just got through saying the Maniac is in with the village - why would Kitanna mention the possibilty of them aligning with the wolves?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

2. How Boro's important point was totally lost under a more or less odd discussion of whether the maniac is playing for the goodies or baddies... where the former, I think, was the obvious answer - and seems to be it. But what Boro said merits repeating: as we don't want to lynch the maniac (the danger for us is in lynching her/him) but want her/him killed by the wolves by Night (to take one of them with her/him for sure) - the wolves might like to impersonate the maniac trying to avoid lynching that way.

Second major thought - I approve of Nogrod bringing this back up; consequently I also approve of Boro bringing it up in the first place, obvious though it may have been. Side thought - it might be interesting to see who was the first to, as Nog said, bury it under the discussion about the Maniac's allegiance. Lemme scroll up - hm. It ends up being Lommy, followed by Legate and Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Greenie

How do you impersonate a Maniac? I mean, if the Maniac plays for the village they'd want to get Night-killed, right? Which would mean they might try to impersonate the Seer, which would mean the wolves would try to impersonate the Maniac who tries to impersonate the Seer who tries to impersonate... I mean, maybe you others can follow this, but I can't, at least not this tired. Anyway what I'm saying is that catching someone "impersonating the Maniac" is easier said than done.

A fair point, but there's no real reason not to talk about it, especially this early.

Lommy floats the idea of the Maniac revealing. Gut reaction - I don't like it. If the Maniac reveals, the wolves won't attack them (and thus lose one of their number). We'd have a known innocent, sure - but is that worth it?

(Greenie mentions the same in #32.)

Legate coming down on the side of the plan makes me twitch a bit, especially since he crossed with Lommy nixing her own plan.



Done with page 1. As of now my gut tells me to vote Kitanna or Lommy, possibly Legate, but this readthrough has been very rushed.

[Boromir88]

I cordially dislike Day 1s...at least there's been some good and necessary discussion on the maniac. If nothing else for clarity purposes, but I also agree with Nog and Shasta about how the wolves might try looking like the maniac, knowing it's not a role we want to lynch. I was more worried that would be the case if the maniac was a wild card.

Shasta and Nog look good enough to me today...won't vote for them. I like Greenie's contributions and it's good to see that despite the long lay off there's no rust on her blade. She's as sharp as ever.

Everyone else is pretty much in a "not enough info" category or "wait and see more"...not sure I want to take a stab in that quite larger pack.

Legate's vote is ok...I mean I understand it, don't like it, but I see where he's coming from in that I would at least be around later, Greenie and Kath would not be. He freely admits it's safe though:

since I don't want to make a completely throwaway vote, and this way I am at least making a vote for someone who (I presume) would be still around and can make a case for himself if it became relevant (unlike if I voted for Greenie or probably Kath).

Lommy troubles me the most today. That "what if the maniac reveals today to give us a known innocent" business. Comes off trying to divert the topic to gifteds revealing which is rarely ever good.

So, Lommy tops my vote for lynch today...will see if I've cross-posted with anyone (hopefully yes).

[Coppermirror]

Summary/analysis

Nerwen: Banters, invokes "The Rule of Three" for me, Boro and Sally and makes an accusation against me. Considers the concept of the Maniac and thinks they can't be on the side of the Moviephiles or it would have been in the narration.

Not a lot to go on there.

Sally: Banters. Thinks Lommy's plan for the Maniac to reveal is too risky, as the wolves could choose to kill them straight away to reduce later danger. Then says her post was based on a misunderstanding of the Maniac role. Then argues that the decision's between info for us and also the wolves and no info for us but a time bomb for the wolves.

This reasoning makes sense, although the risk of a bad lynch also remains. But the Maniac would have the option of revealing as long as they were around for voting.

Loslote: Banters. Returns and is against the Maniac revealing toDay. Thinks Greenie's vote for Sally looks innocent and that Lommy's flip-flop makes her look innocent. Finds Legate's tone slightly suspicious on the grounds of sounding careful.

Not a lot to say here either.

Kitanna: Banters. Thinks the Maniac is a wildcard innocent or cobbler/hunter hybrid and the risks and rewards of them revealing are equal. Then takes back earlier posts after finding out the Maniac's on the village's side.

Agh, so many people taking back their posts. Nothing much to analyse here either.

Lommy: Banters, makes joke predictions for how the Day will go. Asks for clarification about the role from Mysterious Disembodied Voice Inzil. Proposes that the Maniac should reveal so we'll have a known innocent or a wolf will fake reveal. Gets confused, says to scrap the plan and that she now understands what Boroand Nog's concerns about fake reveals were about. Then tells Legate she doesn't think the wolves would trade a wolf for a known innocent. Disagrees with Legate's 3b, agrees with Sally about increasing risk for wolves from the Maniac as the game goes on. Thinks Sally and Nerwen are mildly suspicious and Kitanna and Greenie are innocent, all based on tone/gut feeling.

I'd say it's best for the Maniac to keep quiet, so the suggestion that they should reveal right now is a little questionable, but Lommy's done a lot to get discussion going and and her reasoning after her reassessment of her plan has been solid. Not going to vote for her.

Legate: Banters. Discusses the Maniac. Likes Nogrod, thinks Greenie is buddying up very slightly to Boro and Kath. Thinks wolves will only counter-reveal in the normal way. Likes Lommy's Maniac-reveal plan a lot. Expands on the reasoning later. Decides not to abstain from voting. Posts a list with suspicions, plans to vote for a low-content poster or for Greenie or Boro on a gut feeling, then votes Boro.

I like Legate's reasoning for (a) and (b) in post #35, but not (c) and (b). In #42, I can see logic in the reasoning but I disagree with the idea of the Maniac revealing and with the idea that it's better for the Maniac to reveal early if it's to be done. An unrevealed Maniac is a greater risk for the wolves as the game goes on. Takes time to explain the reasoning for his vote, which is good, but might even be slightly too careful.

Nogrod: Gets straight to the point and lists two things that ping him. Nerwen's banter and the way Boro's point about the importance of not lynching the Maniac got buried in the discussion. Thinks the value of the unrevealed Maniac is greater than that of a known innocent, but points out that the Maniac still poses a risk to the village if lynched. Comments on possible opening defences from Lottie, Kitanna and Legate. Does what looks like a logical analysis in #65 and #70. Then votes Kitanna for self-defence opening/carefulness/lack of content.

Nog's reasoning has been fairly clearly stated through all of that. He's also contributed to the discussion a lot. Not voting for him.

Shasta: Showed up late. One substantive post at #72. Some concerns about Kitanna. Likes Nog and Boro's reasoning, and looks at Lommy, Legate and Nerwen for possibly trying to bury the point. Dislikes the Maniac reveal plan. Thinking of voting Kitannaor Lommyand possibly Legate.

His point about Kitanna considering the possibility of the Maniac aligning with the wolves is interesting and perhaps a stretch, given that Kitanna herself ends up reasoning in the same comment that the Maniac would be most likely to be an innocent. But otherwise I think his reasoning looks okay.

Out of the above, I'm...
Feeling relatively good about: Lommy, Nogrod
Neutral about: Sally, Shasta
No idea about: Kitanna, Lottie, Nerwen
Mildly suspicious of: Legate

This is taking far longer than expected, so I'll post what I've got now and cover Greenie, Kath and Boro in a later post. Right now I'm thinking of possibly voting for Legate, but I still haven't looked at those three people's posts closely yet. Aargh, I need to hurry up here.

Edit: crossed with Boro.

[Nerwen]

Sorry to take so long. Busy, net went down, maniac discussion headache-inducing.

Some thought on your thoughts, O Shasta, my peerless one:

Originally Posted by He who outshines the sun

First major thought. Inzil just got through saying the Maniac is in with the village - why would Kitanna mention the possibilty of them aligning with the wolves?

My jewel, I think she simply hadn’t noticed Zil's post.

However, she then goes to say:
#40

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Since the Maniac's role pretty much revolves around dying to fullfill the role, who is to say they'll align with the village? A hunter can at least chose who they think is evil, Maniac is subject to the whims of the mod-god.

I kind of see the Maniac as a potential cobbler/hunter hybrid, a wildcard as Boro put it.

Which could be interpreted as a wolfy, “Hey Maniac, why not join us?”

Originally Posted by my only one

Second major thought - I approve of Nogrod bringing this back up; consequently I also approve of Boro bringing it up in the first place, obvious though it may have been. Side thought - it might be interesting to see who was the first to, as Nog said, bury it under the discussion about the Maniac's allegiance. Lemme scroll up - hm. It ends up being Lommy, followed by Legate and Nerwen.

Okay, but, as Kit notes it was also Boro who first brought up the idea of the Maniac being a “wild card” (#14). So what I said about Kit also applies somewhat here– could this possibly be a subtle hint to the Maniac?

Lommy floats the idea of the Maniac revealing. Gut reaction - I don't like it. If the Maniac reveals, the wolves won't attack them (and thus lose one of their number). We'd have a known innocent, sure - but is that worth it?

(Greenie mentions the same in #32.)

Legate coming down on the side of the plan makes me twitch a bit, especially since he crossed with Lommy nixing her own plan.

The penguin's plan does sound like something a baddie might want to put forward– however, that’s not really the vibe I’m getting from her, especially once she starts flip-flopping. Meanwhile, Legate goes on and on exploring unlikely scenarios, such as the “best-case” of a wolfish counter-reveal on Day One… I don’t know what to make of this.

EDIT:X’d with Boro and Cop.

[Inziladun]

With 30 minutes to DL, I make the voting as follows:

Greenie--> Sally (1)
Legate--> Boro (1)
Lommy--> Sally (2)
Nog--> Kitanna (1)

[Boromir88]

No cross-posts with my last but Cop and Nerwen have returned since. My brain is fried at this point, so they're still sitting in the "wait and see" group...until I've fully recovered on a good night's sleep. (aside...I decided I could join despite the 50 hrs/week work week because they were finally all at the same time for the next week and a half - 8am-6pm. But this morning found out that was shot, and schedule has been juggled around. Not going to effect me in the sense that I can definitely still participate, but it will be quite sporadic in terms of when I can post and vote from day-to-day).

I can't envision my opinions changing over the next half-hour especially since those I'm most suspicious of are already gone...

++Lommy

[Nerwen]

I see Kath has posted.

This… never… happens…

If I vote on top of that… will the universe implode?

EDIT:X’d with Boro.

[Loslote]

I'm really not thrilled with any of the options so far. I've still got a bad feeling about Legate, but I don't have anything concrete, and I'm not completely comfortable voting for him. I'd be more comfortable with him than with the other three on the table, though, so...

++Legate

EDIT: xed since Zil

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I see Kath has posted.

This… never… happens…

If I vote on top of that… will the universe implode?

Let's find out.


(Obviously I'm back.)