Arda Cup Football 2013

[the phantom]

(special report continued...)

GROUP E

Erebor (94)
GK *Beorn (12)
DF Thorin (5)
DF Meneldor (8)
DF Landroval (8)
DF Girion (8)
MF Dain (5)
MF Brand (3)
MF Bolg (9)
FW Bard (8)
FW Nazgul #7 (10)
FW *Smaug (18)

MESPN Take: A winged dragon provides a matchup problem for many teams, but Misty Mts has a natural stopper in Gwaihir. Eriador and Wilderland on the other hand have a couple good tools on defense, but they’ll have to depend more on stopping Smaug’s feeders, which Wilderland might struggle to do without extra defensive commitment. With twin eagles on their defense, defensive teams aren’t going to be able to beat Erebor on a dash forward, but Eriador will be able to build slowly with precise passing, and the Elves and Narvi in the middle for Misty will do that as well. Having Beorn at the back, who has at times looked very good, may make the difference.

Eriador (103)
GK *Elrond (20)
DF Asfaloth (4)
DF Arwen (10)
DF Aragorn (10)
DF *Gil-galad (13)
MF Araphant (5)
MF Arador (4)
MF NogWight (6)
MF Arveleg (8)
MF *Glorfindel (13)
FW Isildur (10)

MESPN Take: With the defenders they have in front of Elrond they threaten to shut out anyone, but they’re in a group where each team has as primary striker a dragon or a balrog, so it’ll be a test without a bona fide beast-stopper (though Asfaloth will be quite helpful in some instances). Eriador will likely control possession more than any of their opponents, and is the least error-prone, and they have the most consistent goal-keeper in the tournament, so the main focus will be keeping the ball off the scales of the dragons (and balrog).

Misty Mts (76)
GK Chief Wolf (3)
DF Caradhras (7)
DF William (4)
DF Watcher (5)
DF *Gwaihir (11)
MF Great Goblin (5)
MF Orophin (6)
MF Rumil (6)
MF Narvi (6)
MF Azog (8)
FW *Durin’s Bane (15)

MESPN Take: Durin’s Bane is a big, fast threat up front, and with the power of Azog also a scoring threat and the Elves and craftsdwarf supporting them it will be difficult to keep them from scoring. At the rear they’ve got some bruisers, one of which (Gwaihir) is lightning fast getting back and forth, but that won’t serve them quite as well against an attack like Eriador.

Wilderland (75)
GK Great Warg (5)
DF Finglas (3)
DF Skinbark (3)
DF Oropher (5)
DF Radagast (11)
MF Fimbrethil (3)
MF Iminye (4)
MF Imin (5)
MF Nazgul #3 (8)
FW Thranduil (14)
FW *Scatha (14)

MESPN Take: A dragon is always useful, but ground-bound as he is Scatha will be more manageable than Smaug for Misty Mts (who have some big bodies to put on Scatha). But he’ll still be a problem at times for Eriador, and maybe for Erebor, as on the ground their eagles can get out-muscled. Against Misty they’ll be dependent upon Thranduil and their Nazgul to outmaneuver the defense. Smaug and Durin’s Bane will give them some trouble, but the presence of two Ents at the back will keep them from being bowled over, while Oropher and Radagast will provide good possession support and help with more standard attackers.

The MESPN Forecast: After their runner-up performance it’s tough to leave Eriador out, and they are solid across the field and accentuated with talents like Glorfindel and Elrond. The other three are somewhat similar, in that they all have a large dangerous attacker to be targeted on crosses and convert free kicks, and they all have somewhat diverse defenses, which perhaps makes them better suited to play one another. It’s tempting to just go with Erebor for the second slot since they made the semifinals last year, but the departure of Thranduil to Wilderland makes their support of Smaug less dominant. Wilderland has the benefit of Radagast spear-heading defensive efforts, while Misty now perhaps has the most solid midfield. But Smaug probably remains the biggest goal-scoring threat, while Glorfindel is the best all-around offensive tool. And then there’s the possibility of Scatha, Smaug, or Durin’s Bane having a dominant game and edging out Eriador. It’s a tough group to call.

Eriador: 65%
Erebor: 50%
Misty Mts: 45%
Wilderland: 40%

GROUP F

Minas Tirith (76)
GK Denethor II (7)
DF Earnur (7)
DF Ecthelion II (7)
DF Firefoot (3)
DF Cirion (7)
MF Earnil II (7)
MF Tarandor (7)
MF Telumehtar (7)
MF Mardil (7)
MF *Eomer (10)
FW Boromir I (7)

MESPN Take: The White City has a solid midfield and defense that excels in working in harmony together and flowing seamlessly from attack to defense, but it won’t be an advantage against The Sea, as they are similar only with a couple of greater talents to punctuate their effectiveness. It will be more of a plus against Tirion, but then Tirion has the speed and precision up front to force Minas Tirith into greater defensive commitment. Firefoot will probably be useful against Glaurung, and MT is good enough on offense to force Nargothrond to give help at the back, whereas if their attackers were turned loose MT might have problems.

Nargothrond (89)
GK Orodreth (10)
DF Guillen (4)
DF Baran (3)
DF Arminas (4)
DF Barahir (7)
MF Beor (7)
MF Nienor (6)
MF Finduilas (9)
FW Gwindor (10)
FW Finrod (14)
FW *Glaurung (15)

MESPN Take: With a solid array of forwards and midfielders Nargothrond has an attack to make anyone feel nervous. Glaurung is a nice weapon to have up front, but The Sea should be well prepared, as Osse and Ulmo both have the size and strength to not be entirely overpowered, and goodness knows they don’t fear fire. And Firefoot of MT will blunt his effectiveness as well, not to mention MT’s team defense denying him touches. Their defense doesn’t exactly scare anyone, so they’ll have to rely on owning the ball, not to mention the other team’s fear of letting Nargothrond loose on a counter. The trio of Finwe-Aredhel-Mahtan will be particularly difficult to contain without help.

The Sea (100)
GK Hyarmendacil (8)
DF Osse (9)
DF Salmar (9)
DF Uinen (9)
DF *Ulmo (17)
MF Tar Cirytan (7)
MF Voronwe (7)
MF Tar Meneldur (7)
MF Veantur (7)
MF Tar Aldarion (8)
FW Tar Minastir (12)

MESPN Take: Similar to team Armenelos (where five of their players hail from), much of the strength of The Sea rests in their lack of weak links, and their habit of offering no tactical or personal mistakes to capitalize on. The quickness and grace of the Nargothrond and Tirion attackers will likely force The Sea to be more conservative. They should be able to hold possession decently against MT and Nargothrond, but the forwards of Tirion pressure the ball a lot, and Feanor’s three sons on defense aren’t exactly passive either, so they’ll need to try a long pass forward more often.

Tirion (83)
GK Finarfin (8)
DF Irime (3)
DF Amrod (9)
DF Amras (9)
DF *Caranthir (11)
MF Anaire (3)
MF Eldalote (2)
MF Rumil (4)
MF Mahtan (9)
FW Aredhel (12)
FW Finwe (13)

MESPN Take: The high talent level and defensive-mindedness of The Sea might frustrate the Tirion offense, but it’s unlikely to be overly shackled against anyone else. Minas Tirith will try to limit them with their own possession and by owning the middle of the field, as will Nargothrond. Tirion’s defenders and Finarfin in goal should be a match for the attack of Minas Tirith, and perhaps The Sea if they’re overly defensive, but Nargothrond has enough weapons that Tirion might have to stay more honest at the back and leave the ball-pressure more to the attackers, though that might slow down the offense.

The MESPN Forecast: If we call it how it is, Minas Tirith appears to be a weaker version of The Sea. Nargothrond perhaps has the most dangerous overall attack, while maybe Tirion’s front three is the most threatening against the specific defenses in this group. Defensively The Sea is probably the most solid overall and can limit Glaurung the most, while Tirion is perhaps best equipped to stop MT and Sea, with the drawback that their midfield can be overcome. Once again, this isn’t an easy group to handicap.

The Sea- 65%
Tirion- 55%
Nargothrond- 50%
Minas Tirith- 30%

GROUP G

Angband (91)
GK *Carcharoth (9)
DF Ulwarth (4)
DF Umuiyan (5)
DF Balrog #1 (12)
DF *Morgoth (20)
MF Uldor (4)
MF Ulfast (4)
MF Ulfang (5)
MF Oikeroi (5)
FW Telvildo (9)
FW *Ancalagon (14)

MESPN Take: Angband is nicely flexible at both ends, with a couple cat-quick attackers supporting the size and power of Ancalagon, who can also get downfield in a hurry. At the back they have another feline, plus the size and power of Morgoth and a Balrog. The only team in the group that on paper looks to pose defensive problems is TIG, as the two Werewolves and Thuringwethil are faster than Ulwarth and Morgoth, perhaps a smidgeon more agile than the Balrog, and stronger than Umuiyan and Ulwarth. As far as teams stopping their attack, Angfauglith has the means to stop Ancalagon with twin Balrogs, and TIG’s Werewolves will give the feline attackers grief, though they can’t do the same to Ancalagon.

Angfauglith (87)
GK *Ungoliant (16)
DF Borlach (3)
DF Gelmir (3)
DF Balrog #2 (12)
DF *Balrog #3 (12)
MF Gorgol (3)
MF Haldir (4)
MF Rian (3)
MF Bor (3)
FW Ecthelion (10)
FW *Gothmog (18)

MESPN Take: Their double Balrogs plus Ungoliant at the back leave them set to handle for the most part any threat thrown at them, while Gothmog-Ecthelion will cause problems at the other end. Imladris doesn’t look likely to stop them, while Angband can throw a Balrog at Gothmog but he won’t best his lord. TIG looks perhaps best equipped on account of Drauglin and the other Werewolves, but individually they can’t match the size and strength, and Gothmog is just as fast. The problem for Angfauglith will be delivering the ball to the forwards, as their midfield is not dominant.

Imladris (69)
GK Valandil (6)
DF Celebrian (5)
DF Galdor (4)
DF Erestor (9)
DF *Varda (14)
MF Gilraen (2)
MF Figwit (2)
MF Lindir (2)
MF Arahael (5)
FW Elladan (10)
FW Elrohir (10)

MESPN Take: The defenses they’ll face in this group will make for tough sledding, but the Elves up front may be able to make some headway against Angband, which only has one defender that can match their quick directional changes and ball movement. Similarly Angfauglith may have a bit of trouble defending them if they keep things moving quickly and accurately, front to back side to side. But holding possession will be key, and the forwards for the opposition are known to be aggressive when on defense. They can’t just pass back and expect the opposition to wait on them. If they choose to play it that way, Varda should be able to take away an attacker from the opposition (though not Ancalagon or Gothmog).

Tol In Gaurhoth (84)
GK *ShastaWolf (10)
DF Drauglin (8)
DF GaladriWight (3)
DF BoroWolf (8)
DF *NilpWolf (10)
MF LegateWight (3)
MF SallyWight (4)
MF NerWight (5)
MF *PhantomWolf (10)
FW Thuringwethil (13)
FW *InzilWolf (10)

MESPN Take: TIG is clearly the fastest squad overall, as only Gothmog and Ancalagon in full flight can beat their Werewolves or Thuringwethil across the field. To match their strength and athleticism Angband has Morgoth, balrog, dragon, and Catbeasts, and Angfauglith has three balrogs, so the Wights might need to make the difference by beating the other squad’s role-players. Against Imladris their priority will be staying in control and tactically sound, as the Elves will aim to frustrate them and wait for mistakes.

The MESPN Forecast: The diverse skill-sets and presence of Morgoth makes Angband the favorite here, and TIG looks to be ahead of Angfauglith in the pecking order for second place, leaving Imladris as the squad gunning for the upset. In other groups a mention of keepers would be more appropriate, as Carcharoth, ShastaWolf, and Ungoliant are all excellent, but here they rather cancel each other out. In the end Ancalagon is the toughest matchup and Morgoth organizes the best defense, so they get the nod over TIG, who has the greatest depth of superior athletes.

Angband- 70%
Tol-In-Gaurhoth- 60%
Angfauglith- 45%
Imladris- 25%

GROUP H

Anduin (83)
GK Amroth (4)
DF Minalcar (5)
DF Felarof (5)
DF Celeborn (10)
DF *Fram (10)
MF Lenwe (2)
MF Leod (5)
MF Haldir (8)
MF Boromir II (10)
FW Eorl (14)
FW Grimbeorn (10)

MESPN Take: A solid and diverse team here, Anduin looks well equipped to please the home fans. Minalcar, Celeborn and Fram can handle most of the athletes they see, and they have the added speed and weight of Felarof to bother Shelob. Grimbeorn is tough up front, but the three in this group have something to throw at him. His three running-mates- Eorl, Boromir and Haldir though will give him room to operate, as no one has four individual athletes that can match what the quad can do- but then no one expects any of these teams to leave their defense out to dry.

Arnor (68)
GK Arvedui (8)
DF Earendur (3)
DF Valandur (3)
DF Malbeth (8)
DF *Elendil (10)
MF Malvegil (3)
MF Argeleb (4)
MF Arassuil (4)
MF Arantar (5)
FW Araphor (7)
FW *Witch King (13)

MESPN Take: Arnor has the best shot at containing the Anduin attack, as they don’t have glaring weak links and have Elendil and Malbeth in front of Arvedui. In addition, Arnor is the most solid through the middle and should own the ball better than anyone. The Witch King won’t be an easy matchup for anyone- he’s too wily and skilled for horses to handle, and men are generally outmatched in size and strength (particularly if they’re suffering from his fear-inducing aura). Celeborn will probably have the best shot at taking him man-to-man (or wraith-to-elf, as it is), but Rohan and Mordor will doubtless give WK extra attention, meaning it will be up to Araphor and others to make them pay.

Mordor (51)
GK Silent Watcher (1)
DF Fellbeast #3 (3)
DF Mumakil (1)
DF Fellbeast #4 (3)
DF Gothmog II (5)
MF Gorbag (3)
MF Shagrat (3)
MF Nazgul #1 (7)
MF Nazgul #2 (7)
MF *Mouth (8)
FW Shelob (10)

MESPN Take: With Fellbeasts and the Mumakil at the rear Mordor is fairly well equipped to face dragons or other large bruisers, but unfortunately they weren’t grouped with many of those (just Grimbeorn really). Given that they will need the offense to score a few. The size of Shelob should bother Arnor, but the steeds of Rohan and Anduin will force The Mouth and his Nazgul buddies to step up. At times the presence of the Nazgul can dishearten mortals, so they’ll need to take advantage of anyone that succumbs.

Rohan (66)
GK Theoden (7)
DF Windfola (3)
DF Snowmane (3)
DF Hama (3)
DF Erkenbrand (3)
MF Aldor (6)
MF King Dead (10)
MF Eowyn (9)
MF Brytta (5)
MF *Faramir (9)
FW Helm (8)

MESPN Take: Rohan will be defense-first, and while double-horses can ensure they don’t get beat on a long-ball, none of the opposition prefers to do that anyway. Arnor might give them some trouble, with their precision positioning and cautious prodding ball-movement. As far as goal-scoring, it will be up to Faramir and friends to beat the opposition with a couple nice passes/moves on the counter, which they hope the more aggressive defenders will be susceptible to in particular.

The MESPN Forecast: Anduin has the most dangerous front four and back four, so it’s difficult not to see them as the favorites. Arnor has the depth up and down and perhaps the greatest chance of upsetting them, hence they have the second-best shot at qualifying. With the Nazgul and Shelob up front Mordor has the best puncher’s chance of scoring past the favorites, while Rohan has the best shot of holding a lead if they grab it early. This could be a very competitive group.

Anduin- 65%
Arnor- 55%
Mordor- 45%
Rohan- 35%

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Round Table Contributors-
Philip McPhantom (MESPN lead football coordinator), Ruharg the Red (Monster Magazine lead sports editor), Ar-Tar-Aradil (Westernesse Weekly sports writer, NAAF president), Adanel (Football wise-woman for Dor-Lomin Athletic Digest), Finwanoro (Football columnist for The Tirion Times and MESPN)

[Galadriel55]

In this issue of EAisticle, we will be giving the readers the absolute correct data on which players to select for their teams. No, we lied. We won't. Instead, we will provide the perfect team combination for you!

THE *cough* DREAM TEAM
GK Alien (The Barrow Downs) - wouldn't you want him on your team? I heard he makes delicious wasp cakes, you'll love them!
DF William (Misty Mtns) - Bill Huggins is really a good guy deep down, and knows a lot about mutton too.
DF Arwen (Eriador) - if you want to take posession of the ball, then come and claim it.
DF Pallando (Barad-dur) - always make sure that a wizard is on your side.
DF Aranwe (Gondolin) - we know so much about him that you could write issues upon issues of EAisticles about his biography. We'd get rich with all the fans.
MF Rumil (Misty Mtns) - just because...
MF Rumil (Tirion) - ...it's the only way you can have two midfielders with the same name on your team!
MF Arassuil (Arnor) - he's so popular, and everyone knows exactly who this guy is!
MF Mouth (Mordor) - I mean, it's *totally* normal to have a body part playing on your team...
FW Nazgul#7 (Erebor) - this guy really stands out from the crowd! There's absolutely none like him!
FW Thranduil (Wilderland) - did anyone say party?
FW Glaurung (Nargothrond) - who can resist his charm?


Now here's a piece of entertainment for our readers: find four and a half things wrong with this team!

And then find seven and two thirds things perfect with this team!

Person with the most correctest stuffs in their answer (ie grammar is unnecessary and some entertaining response is an asset) gets a mention in the next article! And possibly imaginary wasp cake.

[Boromir88]

By Boro88

After Tol in Gaurhoth's strong showing in the friendlies I was able to sit down with several of the team's werewolves to discuss the approaching tournament. I figured coming off of two victories, now would be about the only chance to speak with the players and make it out alive.

Tol-in-Gaurhoth is trying to put a disappointing 2012 behind them, since it was the only year the team did not make it out of the group round. Although some factors were not in TIG's control, since after taking silver in 2011, the team was hit with some heavy sanctions, which put restrictions on their roster and limitted the kind of game they like playing. But TIG bit the bullet, played by the rules, and adjusted their make-up that even Iluvatar was content and had the sanctions lifted.

Now the wolves, wights, and other beasties are starting to find their form, and at a good time too!

TTN: After being eliminated in the group round last year, how do you think you'll fare this year in a tough Group G?
Many of them are carrying the positive start into their round 1 games...

GaladWight: "We'll kick some butt... I mean ball."

NilpWolf: "We're rolling in the friendlies, winning both games. If we keep this focus, and if Anfauglith continue to struggle, we'd advance from our group this year."

NerWight: "I’m quite hopeful, actually – we’ve got a good line-up this year too, you know."

phantomWolf called last year a "fluke" pointing out they actually played better than their group opponents but by either some rotten luck or having wolves sent off only managed 3 draws: "If you think about it- no one beat us last year, did they? So what we've done is added Thuringwethil and Drauglin to an undefeated team. So long as we don't shoot ourselves in the foot I'm not particularly worried about our prospects."

BoroWolf sounded a bit more cautious: "To be honest, Doriath and The Havens are teams we should beat. Don't get me wrong, it's a nice sign we're winning those games when last year we would have found some way to blow it and only get a point. But, it's fair to say we haven't been tested yet, and the teams in our group bring different challenges over the teams we beat in the friendlies."

TTN: Toughest challenge: Angband, Anfauglith, or Imladris?

We can't set up the teams in Group G much better than phantomWolf:

"Angband.

Despite their tactical and technical proficiency, Imladris just doesn't have the power and athleticism to defend Thuringwethil and two Werewolves on one end and score against Drauglin and a pair of Werewolves at the other.

Angfauglith has three Balrogs, so that negates some of our advantage, but we're better than them all through the middle. Gothmog and Ecthelion can't get themselves the ball and dribble up the entire pitch, nor can two Balrog defenders stop our entire attack when we overmatch everyone else.

Angband though- Ancalagon is always a big challenge, then they have Morgoth and a Balrog at the back, but they supplement that with the quick Catbeasts- two up front and one in back. So athletically they have more to make us stay honest, and to take advantage of positional slip-ups and the like. We'll need to play tough and sharp against them."

And it was pretty much unanimous for Angband, as NilpWolf added Angband should be angry from last year's (like TIG) loss to Minas Tirith. However, it appears the key will be against Anfauglith, and the aura of uncertainty surrounding the team (in large part from an uninspiring friendly performance, but they've got the defense and talent if they can put it all together before the tournament) is a different kind of challenge:

NerWight: "The other two, though, are a bit... thought provoking. I think Angfauglith might look even more sc– I mean thought-provoking than Angband. But then they haven’t done so well in the friendlies, so it’s hard to say."

GaladWight talked to herself in circles (also literally...she was responding while spinning around), but we'll publish her response as well:

""imladris omg elfs omg figwit omg!" is what fangurl43 told me yesterday about the topic (and I did not hear a single capital letter in her sentence). I don't know if she's a fan of our awesome team or a fan of Figwit. I have a feeling that it's the second, because these fans have a hobbit - I mean habit - of adding "OMG" to everything they say. Our team really is awesome, though. So awesome that it should be called Team Awesome. Anyways, as I was saying... Wait, what was the question?"


TTN: Thoughts on Nogrod defecting to play for the 2012 silver-medalist Eriador?

At this NerWight wasn't interested in the past "Nog who?" and GaladWight yelled "Ditcher!"

The striker replacing NogWolf this year believes he will regret the choice...

InzilWolf: "I think it'll bite him. They've got Elrond and Glorfindel too, and that's a couple of prima donnas who don't like sharing the spotlight."

Those who profess to know their former teammate better (but could not foresee his departure) have a slightly different tone.

BoroWolf: "I think we'll miss his height, because the FinnWight was a header-specialist, and he often kept his head for that matter. But then again, with the defenses we're up against this year, their backlines are not dimunitive so I think going with more quickness and agility with InzilWolf and Thuringwethil is good for us. Plus, when clearing out his wolf den I found he had a lifetime subscription to AKM. Inconceivable."

Phantomwolf: "I'm a bit surprised really. Not that he left- I mean, I figured he would. Wights and Werewolves like us are pretty well always restricted to playing on one squad or two, so being granted an opportunity to test the free agent waters is too good to pass up.

But his choice of Eriador surprised me. I figured he'd want to play as a Werewolf for Sauron, or feed the ball to Feanor on AC Beleriand- but I guess not everyone has the same dreams I do. I suppose it makes sense- NogWight has always been a bit more... thoughtful and rational, and less distracted by the superfluous glamor and fame some players seek. So he's probably at home with the talented but humble squad from Eriador. There's enough stars and bright lights there to satisfy most anyone, but Elrond doesn't try to play it up and just wants results."

TTN: And to end this interview on a lighter note...Who would you most want as a teammate? (not including current teammates)

Nilpwolf: "Oh, Finrod, no question. He was once a 'visitor' to our island, and he's an excellent player. He'd fit the 'whole is greater than the sum of its parts' thing that we're proud of."

Phantomwolf: "Ha, well, I sort of gave away my answer in the last question. Sauron, obviously. As the Lord of Werewolves, he really gets me. Specifically, he gets me goals and assists, heh. The guy is just so good at using what he has. He's so flexible with his strategies and even his own playstyle. If you stop him he just comes back in another form. I've played with him before and I know it's a winning recipe, so that's my choice. But as far as a pipe-dream...

...There's Feanor. I'm not sure if I think enough like a First Age Elf for me to thrive in an offense with him- he kind of expects everyone around him to be "where they ought to be" at all times depending upon what he sees from the defense, and then he delivers it perfectly to the spot you should be moving to or takes it himself as he deems appropriate. It isn't necessarily easy to fit into his fast-pace perfection.... But boy would I like to try. Because if Feanor and I could ever get on the same page, the result would be nothing short of the greatest glory and beauty I'd ever experienced. And I dated Kate Beckinsale."

NerWight: "That’s another hard call... maybe Arien."

GaladWight: "Turin. I mean, who wouldn't want such an awesome character for a teammate? I bet every single wight here would agree with me - ouch! Who just elbowed me?"

InzilWolf: "That's a tough one. Maybe GwathWolf. He has a tendency to hang back in the shadows and snatch a victory when you aren't looking."

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

AC Beleriand


(Expected formation)

Last year
Two things were strongly associated with the 2012 AC Beleriand squad: aggressive pressing and a commitment to possession. Fëanor’s squad kept the ball well not only because they fielded four central midfielders (most teams field only two or three, allowing AC Beleriand to pass around them) but also because they went for the ball immediately after losing it. Ulrad and Beren were icons of this high-energy style of play, but even Fëanor, Eöl, and Denethor often harried opposing defenders and defensive midfielders to recover possession.

Playing four central midfielders, however, came at a cost—AC Beleriand lacked width in attack, forcing full-backs Fingolfin and Ecthelion to cover a lot of ground going forward as well as defending. Most teams were unable to exploit this weakness, simply because they couldn’t get the ball long enough to do something with it, but Real Valinor in the semi-finals managed to bypass AC Beleriand’s pressing by sending long balls from the defence straight to Arien, Míriel, and Nerdanel. And even a downgraded Doriath squad managed to stifle their attack by preventing the full-backs from advancing and packing the middle of the pitch, forcing AC Beleriand to beat them on the flanks (which they never did). It’s no coincidence that those two teams who exploited AC Beleriand’s aggressive pressing and lack of width well were the only teams they didn't beat.

Changes
Beren must have been agitating for a move in the offseason, since Fëanor allowed his second-highest goalscorer to walk away too easily. Contract negotiations with holding midfielder Bregolas also fell apart, so two roster spots opened up for AC Beleriand; Fëanor signed Havens wide midfielders Aegnor and Angrod to be their replacements.

Midfield
With Ulrad and Denethor still in the squad, Fëanor retained four ball-playing midfielders who can help keep possession, but his two new signings naturally attack from the wings, giving his side natural width without having to push their full-backs (Fingolfin and Balrog #4, who replaced Ecthelion) forward. In their friendly games the two spent far more time with the back line than with the forwards, making their side more secure against counterattacks. This is particularly helpful when you consider that the ‘2’ in AC Beleriand’s 4-2-3-1, Ulrad and Denethor, were once fielded higher up the field, and are still learning the ropes of the holding midfielder trade. Denethor is more positionally disciplined of the two; Ulrad is a high-energy tackler who would chase opposing midfielders around and harry them in possession.

Attack
The tip of their 4-2-3-1 is, surprisingly, not Fëanor, but Eöl. This has caused opposing defences a ton of problems—the Dark Boot’s tendency is to move from wing to wing, even back to the midfield, to look for space. This often forced a centre-back out of position to mark; otherwise he would be left free to play the ball to AC Beleriand’s other attackers or take a shot himself. Fëanor, on the other hand, is too far away from the line of defenders to be marked by a centre-back, forcing a midfielder to track him. The Fiery Boot can outrun and overpower most midfielders, as Ar-Gimilzôr and Tar-Míriel found out. And Aegnor and Angrod have exploited the focus defences pay on the two forwards by making goalward runs from the wings; Fëanor and Eöl’s passes have often left them with only a defender and the goalkeeper to beat.

Defence
Imlach and Rochallor renew their effective central defensive partnership. Fingolfin remains the leader of their back line, and Balrog #4 is an adequate replacement for Ecthelion, having plied his trade with Anfauglith in the same position last year. The two full-backs would still be required to move forward every now and then, but not as much as they did last year. Marach is a decent goalkeeper who fits well with AC Beleriand’s system; he plays like a sweeper behind the defenders’ high line, clearing crosses and long balls that are played behind the back four.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Fëanor
FORMATION: 4-2-3-1
PLAYING STYLE: possession, pressing
STRENGTH: Attackers, pressing as a unit.
WEAKNESS: Holding midfield duo.
KEY PLAYER: Fëanor
QUESTION: Are Angrod and Aegnor the answer to AC Beleriand’s weaknesses last year?
__________

Inter Beleriand


(Expected formation)

Last year
For a second year in a row, a team led by Maedhros and Fingon failed to advance from their group by the slimmest of margins. Last year, Gondolin’s more convincing 4-0 defeat of Arnor meant that, despite conceding one less goal to Eriador, Inter Beleriand putting just two goals past Arvedui led them to be eliminated on goal difference. And the year before that, Himring were eliminated on goals scored—Tirion scored one more goal against Shire-Bree United than they did.

Maedhros and Fingon were already carrying a huge scoring load, and, while Haleth’s pace is useful on the attack, especially in the counterattacking style Inter prefer, he’s not a goal threat. They need to find goalscorer who will not compromise their defensive solidity.

Changes
Inter Beleriand got what is arguably the coup of the preseason, acquiring all-around midfielder Beren for $13 million. (The only acquisition that could possibly top this is Arien’s transfer to Valimar, although we believe that Caranthir’s move to Tirion is severely underrated.) This signing has improved both their offence and defence—Beren has not only scored five goals and created one for AC Beleriand, he has also often shut down the opposing squad’s most dangerous midfielder.

Inter have also acquired wing player Lúthien, fielding her as a left-back in place of the departing Balrog #5. She is another two-way signing—the former Doriath winger is defensively solid, yet can also contribute to the attack with her pace and well-delivered crosses.

Attack
As a counterattacking side, Inter focus on pace and quick forward delivery of the ball after winning possession. Their specialty is countering off opposition corner kicks—see their second goal against Gondolin last year and their goal vs Doriath in this year’s friendly match.

Beren is fielded as a left-sided midfielder, but he cuts inside whenever Inter is in possession, giving them a third central midfielder and allowing Lúthien to bomb forward. In the impressive AC Beleriand side, he was at his most effective when he was part of dangerous passing triangles with left-back Fingolfin and roaming forward Eöl; Lúthien and Fingon can replicate those roles for Inter. On the right, Haleth is a more traditional wide midfielder, running down the touchline to deliver crosses to the Noldor upfront.

Maedhros and Fingon form a traditional target man/quick man tandem, with Maedhros a target of long balls and a finisher of crosses, while Fingon's pace with the ball allows him to attack defences before they get back into shape. But Maedhros is more than a simple target man—he can hold the ball up while waiting for runners, but he can also turn around and make a run at goal himself.

Midfield and defence
Inter retained their central midfield pairing of Hunthor and Forweg. They’re defensively solid but generally unimaginative with the ball, preferring to play short passes to the wings. Their back four consists of Lúthien and Baragund on the left and the right, respectively (both are converted wide midfielders/wingers) with Haldad and Gorlim as centre-backs. The pair is decent against strong centre forwards, but vulnerable to forwards with pace and technique (which this group is full of). Behind them is Turgon, a fine shotstopper (ninth best save rate last year), a vocal back line leader, and an excellent deliverer of accurate long balls to the forwards.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Maedhros
FORMATION: 4-4-2
PLAYING STYLE: counterattacking
STRENGTH: Attacking trio, pace.
WEAKNESS: Defence.
KEY PLAYER: Beren
QUESTION: Can they score more against Dwarves United than Gondolin? (This is probably the key to their advance—unless they can beat Gondolin.)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Dwarves United


(Expected formation)

Last year
Dwarves United surprisingly advanced to the knockout stages ahead of an offensively stacked Wilderland squad and a solid Anduin team. They did it in the way of most footballing underdogs, by being very difficult to break down and nicking a few goals on the break.

Legolas seemed to be the perfect forward for their team—he passed their strict squad selection qualification (being a Dwarf-friend) and he is a speedy forward who excels in rushing at disorganised defences. However, all they got from their lone forward is a goal in four games, a poor rate of return considering he offers little else to the Dwarven offence: he’s poor at holding the ball up and his crossing ability is useless when the targets are often less than four feet tall.

Changes
Which is why it’s surprising that their major acquisition during the preseason transfer window, former Wilderland attacking midfielder Galadriel, is being fielded as a goalkeeper. This is especially bewildering considering their former keeper Bombur boasted a save rate that was tied for seventh best last year. That they would choose an incremental increase in defensive solidity over a two- or even threefold increase in offensive ability is perhaps deeply rooted in Dwarven philosophy. It is certainly a decision many football analysts struggle to understand.

Defence
Ahead of Galadriel is a solid back four: Azaghâl and Aulë are the centre-backs, with the Dwarf from Belegost doing the tackling and interceptions while the Vala stayed behind to make clearances and win headers. On the flanks are the attacking left-back Celebrimbor and the more defensive-minded right-back Durin.

Midfield
In front of them are Dwarves United’s other preseason signings, midfielders Fíli and Kíli. We disagree with AKM when they said that their ‘only merit is that they will play for the team with half the price.’ The sons of Dís are an improvement over Thror and Thorin; while the elder two are more combative tacklers (unfortunately leading to yellow cards), the latter are quicker and more capable of occupying space and cutting off passing options for opposing attackers. They are also excellent in short one-touch passing, as they demonstrated in their friendly vs Rohan—their quick switch of play from one flank to the other led to Celebrimbor setting up Gimli to create Telchar’s winner.

Attack
Just behind Legolas are the more attacking trio of midfielders. Gamil Zirak and Telchar start out wide and dribble past opponents, while Gimli drifts into space to create overloads on either wing. One of the trio will receive a short pass from Fíli and Kíli while the others dash forward to support Legolas. Last year, Celebrimbor often arrived late in the box when defences have paid them too much attention to the four attackers, and his Fëanorean ball skills were enough to give him space to shoot. But, during the friendlies, teams have begun to man-mark him, even double-marking him when he crosses the halfway line (as in the game against Rohan). His decision-making must be spot on so he can exploit potential openings, as he did vs the Rohirrim when, as Háma and Snowmane double-teamed him, he passed to the open Gimli who immediately assisted a cutting Telchar.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Aulë
FORMATION: 4-5-1
PLAYING STYLE: defensive, counterattacking
STRENGTH: Defensively solid.
WEAKNESS: Lack of goalscoring.
KEY PLAYER: Celebrimbor
QUESTION: Can they get goals out of Legolas?
__________

Gondolin


(Expected formation)

Last year
Gondolin scored seven goals in four tournament games, with forwards Gothmog and Maeglin accounting for all but one goal. Their offence was ranked ninth in the tournament, putting up 16.5 shots per game (better than even AC Beleriand’s 16.14). More than half of the goals they scored, however, came against Arnor. They scored only once against some of the tournament’s top defences (one vs second-ranked Eriador and none vs third-ranked AC Beleriand).

Changes
In the offseason Gothmog transferred to Anfauglith; in his place as Gondolin’s line leader was Tuor from the Havens. Pengolodh was released and Penlod from FC Valinor was brought in to strengthen the defence. Also from FC Valinor was wide midfielder Idril, brought in to replace a retiring Meleth. Having two legitimate wide players means that Gondolin would field a normal 4-4-2 instead of their asymmetrical 4-2-2-2.

Midfield
There is a problem, though: Salgant and Duilin, Gondolin’s two central midfielders, are incompatible with the Hidden Kingdom’s defensive style. In fact, they just don’t fit well together. A traditional central midfield duo consists of one disciplined player with a more forward-thinking one (either a passer or a runner). But Salgant drifts around the pitch too much to play the more disciplined role. Duilin isn’t suited for it, either; he is an energetic box-to-box player, excellent at moving forward to link midfield and attack, supplying passes to the forwards, and making late runs to the penalty box against distracted defenders, but he is poor at tackling and even poorer at defensive positioning. As a result, Gondolin, even with their two banks of four, look surprisingly open to attacks through the middle. During their friendly against Hithlum, Hador found a surprising amount of space to run in and finish Túrin’s chipped ball past the defence—Salgant had been chasing Túrin around whenever the forward dropped deep, while Duilin was dragged away by Morwen’s movement to the flanks.

Attack
Out wide beside Duilin and Salgant are Idril on the right and Elemmakil on the left. They are both better on attack than defence, which compounds the problem of protecting their defence. Elemmakil is a traditional winger, hugging the touchline before delivering crosses to the forwards, while Idril drifted inside to act as a third central midfielder when she played for FC Valinor; however, in Gondolin’s more direct counterattacking system, she’s been asked to replicate Elemmakil’s movements.

The game against Tirion highlighted Meleth’s underrated importance to Gondolin’s attack—she was their ‘quarterback’, playing accurate balls out of the defence directly to the attackers in dangerous positions, something Rog or the defenders could not do. Creating too few chances against Tirion’s second-worst defence (whose personnel, however, were completely revamped during the offseason trade window) illustrated the difficulty Gondolin had connecting defence and attack when their wingers are marked tightly. (During their second friendly against Hithlum Idril and Elemmakil were given more space, and they had more influence in the game.)

Up front, Tuor is the target man, able to lead the line with force as well as score goals. Maeglin plays just behind him, linking midfield and attack as well as drifting laterally into channels.

Defence
Penlod is a step above Pengolodh as a defender, adding toughness and positional discipline to their backline. The rest of the back four are vulnerable to crafty forwards and midfield runners. Their full-backs offer little going forward, but with Idril and Elemmakil already providing the attacking width, there is little need for them to do so. And goalkeeper Rog has yet to regain his 2010 form, although his save rate during friendlies (73%) is a step above his 2012 rate (68%). (Iorithil of QN Sport wrote an article surmising that his performance with Vinyamar might be credited more to the Ulmo-organised defence than his own talent.)

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Maeglin
FORMATION: 4-4-1-1/4-4-2
PLAYING STYLE: counterattacking
STRENGTH: Attackers, pace down the flanks.
WEAKNESS: Defence and central midfield.
KEY PLAYER: Maeglin
QUESTION: Who will link the defence and attack when their wingers are marked out of the game? (All the teams in their group have defensively solid wide players)
__________

Group B’s expected finish:

1. AC Beleriand
2. Inter Beleriand
3. Gondolin
4. Dwarves United

[the phantom]

Scenarios: Best Case and Worst Case
MESPN Football Round Table

We here at MESPN asked some of our Football round table contributors to come up with best and worst-case scenarios for each team in the field. In the best-case scenarios the rule-of-thumb for the playoffs is that a squad is allowed to pull one reasonable upset, one other team is allowed to pull an upset (allowing them to face the weaker squad), and the group opposite them is allowed to have one squad finish out of position (again, allowing for a weaker opponent). Essentially this guarantees the best-case somewhat probable scenario.

And just because one squad has a higher “BEST” does not mean that squad is superior head-to-head. It may just indicate a combination of a tough group and a likely tough playoff draw.

With worst-case it’s a bit more art than science, as technically anyone can be left out in the cold after the group stage. But to add a bit of diversity in answers, we’re going with more conventional logic and not assuming multiple upsets.

So anyway, not true best/worsts here, but rather with likelihood factored in.

GROUP A

Armenelos
BEST- runner up
WORST- eliminated in-group

The Barrow-Downs
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in-group

The Havens
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Valimar
BEST- runner up
WORST- eliminated in-group

Any team from group A can make the playoffs, but it won’t be easy for anyone. Once there they’ll be meeting a Group H team, which means it’s likely a matchup they won’t be entirely overmatched in. The key is the following round, where they will meet whichever squad emerges from the B-G matchup. If it’s AC Beleriand, Angband or TIG then obviously it’ll be a heck of a challenge, but if there’s an upset inside one of those groups that yields an Angfauglith vs Gondolin matchup or something like that, while those teams aren’t pushovers they are generally preferable to playing Feanor or Morgoth.

Once in the semis, they can’t count on a Cinderella to be waiting for them, so they’ll need to really be on it to advance, and it’s the same story in the finals. We rated Valimar and Armenelos as runner-up because we think three games in a row against Angband/Real/AC/etc. is too much to expect (not that they can’t- it’s just not probable). We can’t just take every team with enough talent to win a title and declare their best scenario as “champ”- we must separate them somehow.

GROUP B

AC Beleriand
BEST- champion
WORST- 1st round playoffs

Inter Beleriand
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Dwarves United
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Gondolin
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

AC Bel is one of the few teams we put in the playoffs under worst-case. The group isn’t easy, but as no one on the panel could leave them lower than 2nd we declared them a “lock” to advance. We almost moved everyone in the group back a spot in the best-case due to the likelihood of facing a strong team in the first round of the playoffs, but whether they finish 1st or 2nd in-group they will have a winnable quarterfinal match if they can but get through the first game.

It’s true that Valimar, Armenelos, or Anduin are likely strong opponents there, but those squads aren’t known for playing in a scary and exploitive style, if you follow. If a team is having some weakness at the back someone like FC Valinor will lick their lips and try to bury them, whereas Valimar and Armenelos are more controlled and defensive and thus the game has a higher probability of remaining tight, which gives teams with fine attacks (like Gondolin and Inter) a puncher’s chance.

The lowest best-case in the group is Dwarves United on account of their lack of scoring, but it’s still impressive that the worst team can make the quarters. Their defensive talents and focus is good enough (it proved it last year) to advance out of the group, and they would have a shot at frustrating a team like Angband or Angfauglith and forcing PKs.

GROUP C

Doriath
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in-group

Hithlum
BEST- champion
WORST- 1st round playoffs

Shire-Bree United
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Real Valinor
BEST- champion
WORST- 1st round playoffs

As you can see we ran into some trouble here, as Hithlum and Real have both come out as “locks” to make the playoffs, which should technically keep Doriath and Shire-Bree from having a best-case scenario. Yes, it’s clear there are flaws in our system here- a lot of grey area of overlap.

We don’t see much difference between Doriath and Shire-Bree, but felt that SBree’s defensive tools gave them a slight chance of upsetting the team they face from Group F, such as attack-heavy Nargothrond. And doubtless you noticed that there are two potential champs in this group- a rare feature indeed (shared only by Group G).

Between Hithlum and Real, it is tough to say who has the better odds. Real is stronger defensively, but Hithlum’s firepower is possibly the best in the tournament. In the end it could very well come down to head-to-head for determining who wins the group.

GROUP D

Barad-Dur
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Gondor
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Isengard
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in-group

FC Valinor
BEST- champion
WORST- 1st round playoffs

It’s tough indeed to see FC getting ousted before the playoffs, but once in the playoffs they could certainly run into trouble, such as a matchup with Eriador. But as one of the best teams in the tournament and no one team clearly better than the rest, they could certainly string together victories to win a title (as they appeared to be on their way to last year).

Isengard would be doing well indeed to make it out of this group, but more realistically it’s between Barad-Dur and Gondor. Either would have a chance of winning their first round match (Barad-Dur looks well-equipped to handle most of Group E while Gondor appears built well to attempt an upset of Group E’s strongest squad, Eriador).

Once in the quarters Gondor could not count on another upset, and the teams they’d possibly face there (Tirion, Real, etc.) would likely be favored. Barad-Dur however has dual dragon-stoppers should they end up against Nargothrond, and they couldn’t hold Sauron scoreless, and the Blue Wizards might give them a slightly better shot than Gondor against Tirion.

GROUP E

Erebor
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Eriador
BEST- runner-up
WORST- eliminated in-group

Misty Mts
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Wilderland
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

With their dependability, cohesion and talent it seems odd not putting “champ” for Eriador’s best, but we felt that it was too much to expect them to win too many games 1-0, as shutting out elite offenses is darn tough, while winning three games 2-1 against teams with elite defenses might be too much to hope for, and we worry a bit about Eriador’s offensive punch against the best squads.

Erebor, Misty and Wilderland felt slightly similar, all with the ability to play a bruising style, and with big powerful scorers up front capable of powering the team to an upset win. In the end we only went quarterfinals for Misty and Wilderland, because while Durin’s Bane and Scatha might prove tough matchups for the defenses of Nargothrond or Tirion, the quick offenses of Narg & Tirion might also prove problematic, while Hithlum and Real both have big stoppers (Balrog#5, Tilion, Nahar). But we put Erebor through to the semis for best-case because frankly they proved it last year.

GROUP F

Minas Tirith
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in-group

Nargothrond
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

The Sea
BEST- champion
WORST- eliminated in-group

Tirion
BEST- runner-up
WORST- eliminated in-group

The major concern for advancement here is the chance of facing Turin and Hithlum or defending champ Real in the first round of the playoffs. We didn’t give Minas Tirith a chance to advance in the playoffs because we thought it was too much to expect them to beat out all of these three other teams for first in the group, and finishing second they’d pretty well be guaranteed a team they don’t match up against well.

The other three we said might win the group, thus finishing first it’s possible one of the Group C heavies will be bumped to third leaving an easier matchup for the Group F winner. We passed all three through the quarters either because a team was likely to be there that they matched up well against, or simply because we believed in a one-game scenario they could pull an upset anyway.

Tirion we advanced one spot beyond Nargothrond on account of their defense. They aren’t overly large and diverse, but with Caranthir, Amrod and Amras back there in front of Finarfin they would match up decently against squads that don’t feature a dragon or similar large striker. The Sea on the other hand we felt had the teeth on defense to slow anyone down, and then good enough scorers backed by one of the most solid midfields around, thus they can win it all.

GROUP G

Angband
BEST- champion
WORST- eliminated in group

Angfauglith
BEST- seminfinals
WORST- eliminated in group

Imladris
BEST- eliminated in group
WORST- eliminated in group

Tol-In-Gaurhoth
BEST- champion
WORST- eliminated in group

This was a tough group to handicap. We were tempted to say that Angband or TIG’s worst would be the first round of the playoffs, but Angfauglith just seemed too dangerous. If Gothmog shoots lights out and the Balrogs at the back play smart and Ungoliant has a great effort, they could certainly upset Angband or TIG.

As far as guaranteeing Imladris for an early exit, it sort of went hand in hand. The other three squads are just all too scary to count on Imladris pulling out a victory more than once, particularly playing away from home (all three other squads will feel at home in the two host stadiums- Anfauglith and Tol In Gaurhoth).

Once out of the group, their playoff fortunes may depend on where they finish and where the Group B teams finish. If at all possible they probably want to avoid a contest with AC Beleriand to start the playoffs. Angband and TIG are both capable of winning that game if they play their very best and AC doesn’t, but no one ever bets on Feanor exiting before the quarterfinals. If they avoid that matchup however, suddenly their chances of a run go up.

GROUP H

Anduin
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in group

Arnor
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in group

Mordor
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in group

Rohan
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in group

We felt that any of these teams was capable of a one-time upset of one of the other four, thus anyone has a risk of being left in groups. Once in the playoffs we didn’t like the way Rohan matched up with the likely Group A winners. Mordor seems ill-suited to face the power and majesty of Valimar (they’d probably arouse their righteous anger), but we give them a puncher’s chance against Armenelos, as the Nazgul would have a slight chance of creeping the mortals off their game, and Shelob might be tough to contest headers with.

We gave Arnor the quarters as best-case as well. Armenelos will play a style familiar to them, but do it better than Arnor- but in a single game anything can happen (unless the disparity is huge of course). And against Valimar, as we saw a couple years ago, the Arnorians know how to keep the Valar dispassionate.

For Anduin we decided to hop them an extra round, as they have the weapons to better take on their first round opponents, and have a better shot at upsetting a heavy-hitter should they meet them in the quarters. The speed and range of Felarof at the back alongside Fram, a natural beast-stopper, gives them better legs to stand on.

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Contributors- Philip McPhantom (MESPN lead football coordinator), Ruharg the Red (Monster Magazine lead sports editor), Ar-Tar-Aradil (Westernesse Weekly sports writer, NAAF president), Adanel (Football wise-woman for Dor-Lomin Athletic Digest), Finwanoro (Football columnist for The Tirion Times and MESPN)

[Nogrod]

GROUP A
Armenelos
The Barrow-Downs
The Havens
Valimar

The Barrow-Downs (last year called “the Downer”) might have evolved into a semi-serious team but it will not be qualifying this year, even if Bombadill can vreac some havoc when having an interest on it. With the other teams it gets more problematic.

Over half of the team of the Havens has changed since last year but it looks pretty solid like it did last season. Losing Tuor and the twin sons of Eärwen is a huge loss though – and hard to compensate. The results from the friendlies were promising anyway and The Havens will fight seriously for qualification.

Manwë has been able to both cut the costs and level-up the team. And the brightest change of all is of course getting Arien into the team. With Manwë and his closest pal Mandos, and some other awe-inspiring players, Valimar sure isn’t the team one thinks of beating just like that. But then on the other hand Valimar has rarely shown excellence in the field (except against teams of “baddies”). All eyes will be glued to Arien then, for it is up to her – and up to others to deliver the ball to her – whether Valimar qualifies or not.

Armenelos has been only waiting for this season to show that what happened the last year will not repeat itself. They are intent on going far in this torunament. As one of the very few teams that have clearly gotten stronger this year, they also seem pretty serious about it. Elros is a great add-on to the team both mentally and sportively.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will qualify: Armenelos
Fight for the second spot: Valimar, The Havens
Will not qualify: The Barrow-Downs

Scorers: Eärendil, Elros and Ar-Pharazôn, if you want to go for a possible jackpot try Arien or Bombadill.
Defenders & Keepers: no good picks in this group – or you could try Manwë / Valimar defenders. All highest defenders have a history of scoring every now and then, only not too often (except Tar Telperien a few years ago).



GROUP B
AC Beleriand
Inter Beleriand
Dwarves United
Gondolin

In principle any of the four teams could qualify from this group, but there are differences as well: if AC Beleriand qualifies it is more or less no news, but if Dwarves United does it is big news.

Dwarves United did qualify the last year (albeit from a lot weaker group) and has basically just strengthened from that by getting Galadriel to keep the goal. Their friendlies haven’t given any reason for the fans to get too excited but they have not been too challenging either. But what they have clearly shown is that like last year it will be hard to score against them.

Gondolin has been having a dry time for a few years now and everyone is waiting for them to bounce back again into the bright lights. With Tuor and Idril back in town the hopes are up again. Forcing Hithlum into a draw was a great feat but losing 0-2 to Tirion in the first friendly was less flattering. So they are facing the season with mixed feelings.

Inter Beleriand acquired Beren and Lúthien for this season and are serious about qualifying. If Turgon and the defences hold they will have the road open, but if not…

The figure of Fëanor looms large over the team AC Beleriand – and he hates to lose. Together with Eöl and the new finds Angrod and Aegnor they have one of the most devastating attacks this tournament has – and as their iron-defence has only gotten tougher this year with the adding of one Balrog it seems they are one of the clearest candidates to pick the whole trophy. The only problem being no stranger to Fëanor himself: that hybris is followed by nemesis.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will qualify: AC Beleriand
Fight closest for the second spot: Inter Beleriand, Gondolin
More probably will not qualify: Dwarves United

Scorers: All four AC Beleriand attacking players (Aegnor has been devastating in the friendlies, Fëanor is always a safe bet); Maedhros, Beren, Tuor, Maeglin…
Defenders & Keepers: Celebrimbor leads the toughest defence and can score himself, Lúthien or Fingolfin for the more adventurous pickers. Galadriel for goal, Turgon has been very good at the goal this season as well and Marach stands behind one of the toughest defences.



GROUP C
Doriath
Hithlum
Shire-Bree United
Real Valinor

Some might say that Shire-Bree United plays in a different – or wrong – league here. And there are reasons for that statement. But it must be admitted that the oddballs from the newer ages have shown their qualities the previous years, and with Gandalf on board one can not just wipe them off from one’s considerations. That said, to qualify they must leave two of three other teams: Real Valinor, Hithlum and Doriath, behind them – and that would be a feat indeed.

With Elwë back and leading the team along his wife Melian Doriath is a team one needs to take seriously. That said, their friendlies weren’t very convincing and not having either Beren or Lúthien in the scoringboard is a big loss which even Elwë probably won’t compensate.

Túrin may be used to losing in real life but he does hate it from the bottom of his heart. Last year was a disaster for Hithlum and this time they have bet everything for this one run… If Morgoth had his way they would fail epicly and the story of that one remarkable family would end in bankrupcy, but happily for the house of Hador Angband is not playing in this group. So it is up to Túrin and his best (and only?) friend Beleg – with the support of his dad, and uncle, Hador himself and all the other family – to score their way far in the tournament. There is no real estate that hasn’t been mortgaged to pay for this year’s salaries.

The AKM does think that Real Valinor is definitively weaker side they were last year with the selling of Arien (forced by Manwë?) and Caranthir. Then again their friendlies were just convincing: drawing with FC Valinor (to whom they lost twice last year) and beating Valimar cleanly 3-1. There should be no question that Real is a tough team again this year; and both Oromë and Nahar are Quality – and bring in some team-spirit indeed.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will qualify: Real Valinor, Hithlum
Will not qualify: Doriath, Shire-Bree United

Scorers: Gandalf seems to be getting into shpe for the first time, anyone from the house of Hador’s attack – or Miriel / Nerdanel. Oromë is a bit more risky but possibly rewarding choice like Khamûl or Mablung are.
Defenders & Keepers: With teams like Hithlum and Real Valinor in the group it is hard to suggest any defenders, but maybe Tulkas for goal and Tilion for a defender (could as well score) – if you feel daring then pick Halbarad ot Shadowfax from the Shire-Bree. Hithlum defence is a no-no.



GROUP D
Barad-Dur
Gondor
Isengard
FC Valinor

Now there is no stopping FC Valinor in this group and it is easy to see brothers Celegorm and Curufin annoyed with the quality of the teams they are thrown against in the group phase – even if there are some individual players that will challnge even them for real. It is just that there is not quality enough in any of the other teams to seriously challenge FC Valinor’s peak position.

Isengard has taken two narrow 1-2 losses from Rohan and Wilderland in the friendlies. From last year they have changed the basically immobile Caradhras into very-very slow Beechbone – which is a kind of step forwards one could say – and replaced Freca with a Nazgûl in the midfield. So even if Saruman has been cutting costs he has managed to build a stronger-looking team. The problem just is that it might not be enough.

Last year Gondor won the lousiest group with some ease and was dropped with penalties to Shire-Bree. For this year they have lost two quality-players Hyermendacil and Falastur and gotten in exchange a promising Meneldil and a more or less mediocre Galadil. In the friendlies they have taken two expected results (beating Mordor 3-1 and drawing 2-2 with Minas Tirith) but there is little to tell to one’s grandchildren about those matches.

Sauron is clearly trying to have an effect without getting his hands dirty – or using too much money from his pockets. Last year’s pathetic defence is fired and now there are two wizards and two Fellbeasts defending the goal in front of the new goalkeeper Grishnâkh (?). The friendlies weren’t impressive, but Sauron himself can perform miracles as we all know.

Which leaves FC Valinor. Changing Nahar and Penlod from defence into Thorondor and Eönwe weighs slightly on the stronger side. Giving up Lórien and Idril on the midfield for Elemmirë and Indis is clearly a weakening – so to sum up, the team should be more or less on even ground – but the AKM thinks they have weakened in total. Drawing with The Sea and Real are not good signs for them even if most teams should jubilate such results as victories of the century.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will qualify: FC Valinor
Fight for the second spot: Barad-Dûr, Gondor
More probably will not qualify: Isengard

Scorers:The brothers and Yavanna are the obvious choices here, and Sauron likewise; on the second level try Eldacar or Saruman, or maybe Meneldil to be original.
Defenders & Keepers: Huan is the obvious pick but also Grishnâkh has been pretty good; any FC Valinor defenders are good picks, Eönwe might be even worth the star that gets used with him.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Elenrod: Today: Four people gather in a room, talk about two groups of eleven people kicking a ball around, and figure out which group will get the ball past a line surrounded by a netted box a greater number of times. This is the Matchday’s 2013 Arda Cup preview episode. I’m your host, Elenrod, and with me today is our secret weapon in the battle for network ratings, tactics expert Maikalomion.

Maika: Thanks.

Elenrod: He loved being in the show so much, he wanted to do it again. Iorithil of QN Sport is also here.

Felagundion: No new book out this time?

Iorithil: No, basically, I’m just hiding from the angry Gondolin fans.

Felagundion: That was a suicidal article you wrote about Rog. I expected Adam or Hunter U. Nogson to be chased by an angry mob, but not you, Iorithil.

Elenrod: And the one who’ll never be gone, mainly because he has a huge debt to pay, Felagundion the blogger.

Felagundion: With Eru’s grace, I’ll escape this terrible fate.

Elenrod: In 231 years’ time. Now, let’s get on with the discussion. Which teams would get out of their groups, which teams would fail? We’ll start with Group A. Now, we have tactical brain Maikalomion. We also have footballing scholar Iorithil. So, Felagundion, what do you think?

Felagundion: Haha! Well, I’ve always pegged Manwë down as a serial choker, and Armenelos and the Havens are doing better in the friendlies, so I’ll have those teams advancing as top seed and second.

Elenrod: Even with Arien in Valimar?

Felagundion: That’s a tough one, yes—I’ve always been a fan of the Sun Lady. But she’s being constrained by Manwë. This reminds me of Lothlórien in 2011, when Fëanor, a perennial Golden Boot contender, wasn’t getting enough touches because of Galadriel’s negative tactics. So I guess I’ll start a ‘Free Arien’ movement.

Elenrod: Maika?

Maika: I’ll have to agree with Felagundion. She’s taken only eight shots in two games for Valimar. Last year with Real Valinor she averaged six shots per game, even with Míriel, Nerdanel, and Nessa in the squad. Now, even though she’s supposed to be the focal point of the offence, she’s often isolated up front due to a lack of service. But I think Valimar will go through; I just trust their defence more.

Iorithil: But in the group stage, scoring is more vital to qualification than defending, although the reverse is true come knockout stages. Still, I don’t think any team in Group A can stop an in-form Arien, except maybe Armenelos. So, for me, Armenelos wins the group, then Valimar second.

Maika: Same for me; I don’t think Eärendil and company can score enough against Armenelos or Valimar.

Elenrod: So you’re all basically ignoring the Downer—pardon, the Barrow-Downs.

Iorithil: Not in this group; I don’t think even Bombadil would be enough to offset their defensive frailty. In 2011 he led the Forest out of the group stage, but basically all he had to do was outscore Mordor and an understrength Nargothrond side.

Elenrod: So, the consensus is

Group A

1. Armenelos
2. Valimar
3. The Havens
4. The Barrow-Downs

Elenrod: Moving along. Group B, anyone?

Maika: The two Beleriands for me, AC Bel then Inter. Everyone now knows how to stop Gondolin—basically, you stop Idril and Elemmakil, like Tirion did. And Dwarves United still can’t score consistently enough.

Iorithil: I think the Dwarves can pick up their offence once the tourney starts. I’d pick them to advance second behind AC Bel. But this is one tough group—only one I’m reasonably sure of advancing is AC Bel, and everyone else has a fair chance.

Felagundion: I’m with Maika here. AC Bel are the best team here, top to bottom, but Inter have a more cohesive squad than Gondolin, who look better on paper. And everyone and their mothers now know that you have to mark Celebrimbor, like Rohan did, and I think the other three teams here can make him a non-factor in Dwarf U’s offence.

Group B

1. AC Beleriand
2. Inter Beleriand
3. Dwarves United
4. Gondolin

Elenrod: On to Group C, then.

Felagundion: I think these gents will all agree with me: Real first then Hithlum.

Iorithil: Agreed; basically just a gulf in quality between them and the rest.

Maika: I concur. Doriath no longer have players like Beleg and Lúthien who can fit in any tactical system they’d need to nullify opponents, and Daeron will now be in every team’s scouting notes—they’ll prioritise shutting him down so he can’t deliver his trademark through passes. Also, Shire-Bree look solid, but they no longer have a genuine game-changer in Bombadil.

Elenrod: Who’d be your dark horse pick, though, one who might spring a surprise?

Iorithil: If Nellas and Saeros become one-tenth as versatile as Beleg and Lúthien, or if Elwing becomes Melian-lite as a full-back, I’d say Doriath have a chance. A very slim one, though.

Felagundion: Doriath for me as well. SBU’s three attackers are about as good as Doriath’s but they have no Melian in the defence.

Elenrod: So for this group, we have

Group C

1. Real Valinor
2. Hithlum
3. Doriath
4. Shire-Bree United

Elenrod: Now, Group D. FC Valinor, and then who else?

Iorithil: Hehe, so, basically, you think FC Val’s a shoo-in? Well, I agree—you’d have to be blind or a total fanatic of the other three teams if you believe they won’t win this group.

Felagundion: Only Sauron has a chance of making it into the FC Valinor squad—that’s how big the gap in quality is. And I absolutely hate Sauron.

Maika: Well, for second, I think Barad-dûr would do it. As Felagundion said, they have the best non-FC Val player, and Grishnákh’s quite a surprise. Fourth-best goalie—even for friendlies, no one expected that. Right now, he’s better than Huan.

Felagundion: But that’s against Arnor and Misty Mts. FC Val had to play Real and the Sea.

Maika: They still hava the Witch-king and Durin’s Bane. Look, no one’s saying they’ll keep a clean sheet against Curufin and company, but against Gondor and Isengard, he might be enough.

Felagundion: I still trust Gondor. The two forwards you mentioned didn’t play hard against Sauron, but Anarion will. And Eldacar and Meneldil are right there with him.

Elenrod: Iorithil? You hold the tiebreaker. Alternatively, you can choose Isengard and screw us all over.

Iorithil: Haha, tempting, but no. Saruman’s squad might have a chance in Group H, but here, he’s basically toast. Hmm, I’d have to go with Barad-dûr. Like with Armenelos and TiG, Sauron won’t want to be left in the group again this year.

Elenrod: All right, then.

Group D

1. FC Valinor
2. Barad-dûr
3. Gondor
4. Isengard

Elenrod: Next up is Group E. Two semifinalists from last year in this group, I see.

Maika: And I’d pick them. Wilderland were held scoreless by Dwarf U—Eriador and Erebor could do the same to them. And Misty Mts’s defence just isn’t working, even with Gwaihir and Caradhras.

Iorithil: I’m assuming that’s Eriador first, Erebor second. I agree, although I think Wilderland has a fair chance of upsetting one of them. Remember: Scatha and Thranduil once basically willed Mirkwood to the semis against stronger competition.

Felagundion: That makes three of us; I think the E’s are advancing in Group E. By the way, I do hope Elrond keeps his ‘concede one goal or less’ streak alive.

Elenrod: Unanimous decision, then.

Group E

1. Eriador
2. Erebor
3. Wilderland
4. Misty Mts

Elenrod: Let’s proceed to Group F.

Maika: I think the Sea have a good chance of winning the group, even if Tirion and Nargothrond look slightly better. Their defence is just on another level, and I think Tar-Minastir and company will put their shooting boots on when the real games start. As for the second spot, I like how Tirion kept a clean sheet against Gondolin. They can muzzle Nargothrond’s attack.

Iorithil: I don’t know; Tirion seem more balanced, and Nargothrond have got that crazy look in their eyes where they’ll turn every match into a scoring contest. I’d give Tirion a better chance than them, and between them and Nargothrond it’s basically a coin flip.

Felagundion: I always say Nargothrond win their group, so as for who goes second . . . I think the Sea can beat Tirion.

Elenrod: And Minas Tirith? They managed to advance to the quarterfinals last year.

Maika: They came from the lousiest group that year, then frustrated a disjointed Angband side who haven’t adjusted yet fully to playing without their midfield anchor Tilion. This is a group of teams who are settled with their identities. They’ll stick to what they do best and beat Minas Tirith there.

Felagundion: I’ve also read a lot of articles praising Mardil, thinking that he could be the star who could bring them out of this group. I mean, Mardil is good player, but he hasn’t exactly pulled up too many trees yet. Well, maybe he’ll start single-handedly winning games like Anarion did last year; we’ll see.

Elenrod: This was a tough group to tally, but basically

Group F

1. The Sea
2. Tirion
3. Nargothrond
4. Minas Tirith

Elenrod: We move on to Group G.

Felagundion: With all due respect to Iorithil, but for me this one’s the Group of Death. There’s Imladris who qualified last year—admittedly, they were roadkill for Erebor in the first round, but still. There’s Angband and TiG, who didn’t qualify for last year, but that was an aberration, I tell you. They will come back angry this year. And you have Anfauglith, who should have qualified over Doriath last year, and they improved their squad. I have no idea who’ll qualify, let alone who’ll win this group. Well, think Imladris won’t qualify, but I’m not sure, because the sons of Elrond look like they know now how to score.

Elenrod: But do you have a blind guess?

Felagundion: I’d say, hmm, Angband, then TiG.

Maika: The same teams for me, but in reverse order. The Werewolves look in good form.

Felagundion: But compare their friendly opponents to Angband’s. Morgoth had a tougher schedule, and he didn’t lose, either.

Maika: But TiG have a better midfield, so they’d keep the ball better. The Easterlings don’t press effectively to recover possession; they’ll just fall back to Morgoth’s lap, like they did vs Tirion. When Finwë dropped to the midfield, no one pressured him. Balrog #1 had to step up to close him down, but that just left space for Aredhel to run into and receive Caranthir’s pass.

Iorithil: I’d go with current form again and say TiG wins the group. But I’ll agree with Felagundion—basically, it’s all very close. Even Anfauglith, who had a shambolic form in the friendlies, have a chance to get it together and qualify. They have the personnel to do it, after all.

Elenrod: The two gang up on Felagundion again.

Group G

1. Tol-in-Gaurhoth
2. Angband
3. Anfauglith
4. Imladris

Elenrod: And last—certainly looking the least—we have group H.

Felagundion: They do look like roadkills for the Group A teams who qualify. Anduin has the best squad on paper, but Arnor and Rohan looks like they can outperform them.

Maika: Arnor, yes, but I think Anduin would still make it, squeeze past Rohan for the second spot.

Iorithil: And here I’d agree with Felagundion. Rohan’s loss to the Dwarves look bad compared to Anduin’s loss to Eriador, but their win against Isengard looks better than Anduin’s draw with Shire-Bree.

Elenrod: So Mordor’s basically fish food in a group of minnows.

Group H

1. Arnor
2. Rohan
3. Anduin
4. Mordor

Elenrod: All right, then. Before we go, do any of you have predictions regarding the knockout rounds? Maybe even the champion.

Felagundion: Nargothrond will be champions, like I always hope for.

Maika: AC Bel, Eriador, and TiG make the semis. The last slot would be decided by another Valinor derby. I think FC Val will win that.

Iorithil: I have none. I just hope the games would start now.

Elenrod: And so indeed do the rest of us. And with that, we’ve come to the end of another show. Thank you all: Maika, Felagundion, Iorithil. From all of us here at TENT: Enjoy the games.

[Nogrod]

GROUP E
Erebor
Eriador
Misty Mts
Wilderland

There seems to be a script ready for this group – and it reads that Eriador will qualify and Misty Mountains stay in the group-phase while Erebor and Wilderland will battle out the other qualifier’s position.

None of the teams from group E played tough opponents in the friendlies, but while other teams allowed zero to one goal in two matches Misty Mts. allowed four. That’s basically their problem – and not having a real Arda-quality offence is another in a group where all the others have tougher than average defences.

Wilderland has changed considerably from last year – including some major losses but also some pretty decent gains. Losing players like Oromë, Galadriel and Elwë would be a blow to any team, but especially getting Thranduil was a good move. Whether that is enough to qualify is then another matter.

Losing two key players Gwaihir from the defence and Thranduil from the offence is bad news indeed for Erebor. Then again they still have two eagles in their defence and Smaug, Bard and a Nazgûl in the offence plus Beorn, one of last year’s stars, on the goal. The positive news for the group phase are of course that Wilderland has also weakened from last season – so it will be all in their own hands.

Common wisdom has it that you shouldn’t change a winning team but Eriador has done some of that leaving many people wondering why. One can explain the changes though, some with moral integrity and others with nepotism – but will it work is then another question. It seems nothing will stop Eriador in the group phase or in the first qualifiers. But will there be a solid and working team to meet some real opposition in the quarters?

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will qualify: Eriador
Fight for the second spot: Erebor, Wilderland
Will not qualify: Misty Mountains

Scorers: Smaug and Glorfindel will score, Scatha and Thranduil know how to but aren’t as reliable. Azog scored nicely in the fiendlies but in the group-games the defences might be too tough for him.
Defenders & Keepers: Elrond and Beorn keep their sheets clean, Eriador’s defence is overall a smart place to pick players.



GROUP F
Minas Tirith
Nargothrond
The Sea
Tirion

Minas Tirith may be a team of decency and brotherhood, and strengthened with Eomer also a good team – to play against other mediocre teams. But put in to fight for qualification against some real talent and experience they have been given boots too big to fill.

Tirion has changed considerably from last year with some major traffic in and out from the team, but they have seemed to hit a good balance, at least if the friendlies offer a meter for anything: drawing with Angband and taking a clean 2-0 victory from Gondolin show that Tirion is serious this year after their decent fight last year in the “group of death”.

Even if their performance last year left a lot to hope for Nargothrond hasn’t made but one trade for their team for this year changing Mîm to Nienor, but they have shuffled the deck somewhat changing the positions of a few players. And it looks promising for they beat Anfaughlith in the friendlies (last year they draw with them) – and forcing Armenelos into a draw was a great result. They are an offensive powerhouse even The Sea needs to take into account.

Otherwise it looks like The Sea is the best bet for a team to qualify: Ulmo-led Maia-defence and Númenorian midfield and offence look both tight and effective. Beating Valimar and drawing with FC Valinor should tell everyone what is needed on their quality.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will most probably qualify: The Sea
Will fight hard for the second (or first) ticket: Nargothrond, Tirion
Will not qualify: Minas Tirith

Scorers: Anyone from the Nargothrond offence is a good idea as are Aredhel and Finwë. Mardil has been devastating in the friendlies but with the level of the defences going up his scoring will come to a halt.
Defenders & Keepers: If The Sea’s defences can deny FC Valinor a goal they can do it to any other team as well (even if we do not suggest you trust all your phantasy-defence with them in the game against Nargothrond). Finarfin is a quality keeper and Caranthir might bring in occasional extra-points.



GROUP G
Angband
Anfauglith
Imladris
Tol-In-Gaurhoth

Group G is one more group where one team is levels below the others and whose only role is to tease the bigger teams and try its hardest for luck to shine on them and give a comfort-goal somewhere. Imladris has just that position in this group. But the others will really fight it out – and we mean really fight for these are no mr. niceguys who play in this group.

Anfaughlith quite never delivered the last year even if they didn’t play badly. From since they have changed their offense completely and with Ecthelion and Gothmog leading it they look much sharper and more dangerous this year. That said they lost both their friendlies, even if quite closely (1-2 both) to some pretty tough teams (AC Beleriand and Nargothrond). In this group they need to start winning and it will be tough against the two other top teams of the group.

Putting Morgoth and Ancalagon together spells trouble to anyone daring to challenge the two – and adding Carcaroth to the goal makes the opposite-side’s efforts at scoring in jeopardy. But they all have been vanquished every now and then – and there resides the hope of other teams again this powerhouse of evil. Interestingly they opened their season with two draws in the friendlies. Now they need two wins to qualify.

With some of the restraints cancelled and a few smart picks from the player-market – and an added 16 million in the budget – T-I-G is suddenly looking just as dangeorus it was years ago on their hayday. And they have been like a whirldwind in the friendlies fex. breaking Melian’s Girdle into pieces with a ravaging 3-0 score.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will (most probably) qualify: Angband, Tol In Gaurhoth
Fights for the second spot: Anfaughlith
Will not qualify: Imladris

Scorers: Gothmog and Ancalagon are safe bets – and if you can affrod one star using it to Morgoth is a star well spent. T-I-G scores a lot in general but the scoring is often spread so it’s hard to give other advice but that it is always useful to have PhantomWolf in your team.
Defenders & Keepers: T-I-G has a tough defence and a classy keeper and same could be said of Angband. No reasonable player would pick players to his defence from Imladris on this group.



GROUP H
Anduin
Arnor
Mordor
Rohan

There seems always to be a group that is a collection of second-rate teams who’d be wiped out in any other group, but as they are brought together they have suddenly a chance to qualify and to compete for the bigger sums offered to qualifiers. And to be sure, they can form entertaining groups and ones that are very hard to predict – like group H in this year’s tournament.

Although one thing we can assure the readers already – and that is that Mordor will not qualify. They are a lousy team even in this group and they seem content to that state of affairs as they have nothing to lose: with 51 million in investment they will gain 9 million in profit even if they lose every game 0-6.

Rohan got as far as the quarterfinals last year but has changed a lot since. With almost 30 million vanished from the investments it is easy to see the level of players has just collapsed. From outside their realm they have only managed to recruit Faramir to play beside his wife – while losing home-grown stars like Eorl, Eomer and Shadowfax to other teams. They still beat Isengard in the friendlies though… as they should.

If you just look at the teams in paper you’d think Arnor has what it takes to just fly through this group but sadly for them paper seems to differ from reality. Having the always scoring Witch King in the offence should make any team uneasy, and having Elendil and Malbeth to shut the defence in front of Arvedui, who after all is a quality keeper, should make opposite offences insecure. Well, their defences have held nicely (against pretty poor offences) but they have themselves scored only one goal in two games. That’s their problem.

Anduin doesn’t boast of any superstars but might just be the most consistent team of this group – there seem not to be weak links or areas of the game they’d be especially bad. Also drawing with Shire-Bree and losing only 0-1 to Eriador in the friendlies are promising signs making them slight favourites to win this group.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will (probably) qualify: Anduin, Arnor
Fights for the second spot: Rohan
Will not qualify: Mordor

Scorers: The Witch King should deliver, he normally does. But will he?
Defenders & Keepers: Arnor and Anduin have the best defences here and with no teams having a master-scoring offence, players from both could be decent picks during the group-stage.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Minas Tirith



Last year
Minas Tirith sprang two of the biggest surprises of the 2012 Arda Cup, advancing to the knockout stage ahead of Sauron’s Barad-dûr and a Mordor squad that was six minutes from taking second seed. Then in the first round the Stewards beat Morgoth’s Angband in a penalty shoot-out after a 1-1 draw in 120 minutes of play.

Minas Tirith were a hardy squad, tactically sound as well as athletically fit. They were unlikely to beat themselves, so it fell upon the opposition to exploit their weaknesses: they’re not solid at the back (having conceded first in all their five games) and not imposing up front, either.

Changes
Since then they’ve replaced attacking midfielder Faramir with Éomer from Rohan, as well as drafting his horse Firefoot at right-back. But fundamentally, Minas Tirith’s identity hasn’t changed. They remain a tactically versatile team, with the personnel to carry out whatever system they use.

Attack
The Stewards’ flexibility starts up front, where a mobile and energetic Boromir I is fielded as a lone forward. Leading the line as a target of long passes, he can also participate in the build-up play, allowing Mardil and Éomer to get ahead of him on the attack. When out of possession, he prevents defenders from making easy passes into the midfield, disrupting the opposition’s build-up play.

Behind him is a band of three attacking midfielders. Mardil on the left is the most talented of the three, preferring to drift inside and storm into the penalty box (and opening up space for left-back Cirion to run into). Éomer in the centre drifts from wing to wing, but can also play through passes for runners (as he did twice for Mardil in the friendlies). Telumehtar on the right, a fullback last year, is more defensive, since most left-backs are more attacking than their counterparts on the right (Barahir and Caranthir are examples in this group), but he is also capable of making a run for the byline and putting in a cross.

Midfield and Defence
Behind them is a well-balanced midfield pivot—Tarondor is a bustling box-to-box midfielder, willing to put in a crunching tackle (earning him two yellow cards in two friendly matches) as well as breaking forward in possession (he played a neat one-two with Mardil vs Gondor). Beside him is Eärnil II, a true holding midfielder who also makes short simple passes to start the attack.

The defence they are protecting consists of Eärnur and Ecthelion II in the centre, Firefoot on the right, and the more attacking Cirion on the left. And in goal is Denethor II, the squad captain and the leader of their defence. His save rate is down (66.7% in the friendlies compared to 73.3% during last year’s tournament), but many expect him to improve once the actual games start.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Denethor II
FORMATION: 4-2-3-1
PLAYING STYLE: pressing, counterattacking
STRENGTH: Cohesive team.
WEAKNESS: So-so defence, lack of a reliable goalscoring threat.
KEY PLAYER: Mardil
QUESTION: Can their ‘scoring by committee’ approach work against quality defences (like the Sea’s) or outscore more talented offences (like Tirion and Nargothrond’s)?
__________

Nargothrond



Last year
Last year’s Nargothrond were a poorly constructed squad, top heavy, stocked with functional midfielders, but sorely lacking in defence. This frailty at the back was exposed early in the tournament when Thuringwethil single-handedly outfoxed and outfought Nargothrond’s four defenders to score a brace. Their whole squad’s problems were then exposed in the next game, when AC Beleriand hammered them with five goals, conceding only one in return, which was scored early in the first half before AC Bel had imposed their dominance on the game.

Their defenders needed protection that holding midfielder Barahir couldn’t provide alone. But with Finrod taking Glaurung’s place as poacher, there was no one to link midfield and attack, forcing the midfielders to push forward. That Mablung, despite being less dominating than Thuringwethil, scored a hat trick against them was due to the fact that, with Nargothrond’s midfielders pushing forward to support the attack (they had a huge goal difference to make up), their back line was exposed to three-on-four situations—two of those three were technically gifted Lúthien and Beleg, who supported Mablung well.

Changes
Finrod made only one personnel change to the squad, replacing Mîm with Hithlum’s energetic midfielder Nienor. Most of the changes they made involved shuffling the players around to bring out the best in them, as well as creating a more cohesive squad.

Defence
In goal, Orodreth replaced Bëor (now stationed at the base of the midfield as a defensive screen) and has done quite well in the friendlies, saving six shots in the game against Armenelos. His save rate of 69.2% is enough for a team who can score a lot—it is certainly an upgrade over Bëor's depressing 52.2% save rate last year. The previous holding midfielder Barahir is now on the left of the back four, leading the defence and offering left-sided width when Nargothrond is in possession. On the right is Guilin, and in the centre are Arminas and Baran. While they still have faults as individual defenders, under Barahir and Orodreth they have become slightly more organised in their coverage and in setting up offside traps.

Attack
Up front, there is a change in shape—where once the trident of Finrod, Glaurung, and Gwindor were spread out across the breadth of the pitch (but with Finrod drifting into central positions), they are now positioned more narrowly. Gwindor and Finrod start as centre forwards, and Glaurung is now in his favoured position ‘in the hole’ behind them, linking midfield and attack. Like Fëanor in AC Beleriand’s current formation, Glaurung is outside the zone of responsibility of opposing defenders, and he has a significant physical advantage over most holding midfielders. Defences are further disorganised by Gwindor’s movement to the right (he is a natural winger) and Finrod’s drifting around the pitch in search for pockets of space (he is a natural playmaker). Whereas Gwindor is usually dealt with by the opposing left-back, Finrod has to be marked by a central defender, since the holding midfielder is already occupied with Glaurung. This will open space for the Glaurung and Nargothrond’s midfielders to run into.

Midfield
Nargothrond’s more advanced midfielders, Nienor and Finduilas, are roughly of the same mould. They are decent tacklers and tireless runners, useful both on attack and defence. Nienor played a wide-shuttling role in last year’s Hithlum squad, and is expected to do so again. Nargothrond presses high up the pitch upon losing possession—this acts as their first line of defence—, with Gwindor marking the left-back and Finrod and Glaurung pressing the two central defenders. Nienor is tasked to move forward and close down the opposing right-back, preventing them from playing the ball forward with ease. Behind them Finduilas marks the opposition’s ball-playing midfielder, and whatever defensive duty they can extract from the slow Bëor is a bonus.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Finrod
FORMATION: 4-3-1-2
PLAYING STYLE: attacking, pressing
STRENGTH: Attackers.
WEAKNESS: Defence, holding midfielder Bëor.
KEY PLAYER: Glaurung
QUESTION: With Glaurung back in his favoured position, will he play better than he did last year?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The Sea



Last year
One of the most unnoticed surprises of last year’s Arda Cup was the fact that an Ulmo-led squad was terrible on defence. Conceding two goals to eventual champions Real Valinor and a Túrin-led Hithlum was somewhat understandable, but allowing the Havens to do the same was eyebrow-raising. And conceding to Valimar, a team that scored but once against an anaemic Hithlum back line, was nothing short of shocking. Were Hithlum and the Sea’s defence on the same level, then? more than one expert asked. Was that notion even possible?

Changes
This year, the Vala of the waters returned to his roots. He has made just a single signing (Gondor shotstopper Hyarmendacil), but he had his squad playing in a way different from last year.

Attack
The changes were felt most strongly up front. Last year’s free-flowing, interchanging Númenórean offence was reined in, with the leading band of midfielders, Tar-Aldarion, Vëantur, and Tar-Meneldur, sitting deeper. This often left lone forward Tar-Minastir cutting a lonely figure higher up the pitch. The front four are still capable of slicing through defences (their quick one-touch passing confused Valimar’s defenders enough to allow Tar-Minastir a clear shot at Manwë’s goal during a friendly match), but the attackers now bear more responsibilities when out of possession.

Midfield and Defence
Former goalkeeper Voronwë has replaced Eriol in the Sea’s defensive midfield band, alongside Tar-Ciryatan. With Ulmo’s renewed commitment to defence (and playing on the break), their sole contribution to the offence is to hoof the ball forward to instigate counterattacking moves.

Behind them are the Sea’s talented defenders—Ulmo and Ossë in the centre, Salmar and Uinen out wide in the left and right, respectively. While the full-backs offer something going forward, and Ulmo is a threat during set-pieces, their main priority is to stifle opposition attackers and deny chances to test their goalkeeper.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Ulmo
FORMATION: 4-5-1/4-2-3-1
PLAYING STYLE: defensive, counterattacking
STRENGTH: Defence
WEAKNESS: Lack of creativity.
KEY PLAYER: Hyarmendacil
QUESTION: How much rope will Ulmo give his offence?
__________

Tirion



Last year
Last year’s Tirion were condemned to elimination by the Arda Cup’s group selection committee. In any other group (save E, or possibly G), they would have been favourites to advance. But compared to the teams in last year’s ‘group of death’, they didn’t have the cohesion of Armenelos nor the star power of the two Valinor squads. Being eliminated with zero points was indicative of their level in the group, but not of their talent compared to the rest of the teams at large.

Changes
This year’s changes perhaps didn’t bring them appreciably closer to the level of the Real and FC Valinor, but they’re now placed in a less difficult group (though some pundits still have them missing out on the knockout stages), and they improved significantly, especially on defence. They acquired former right-back Rúmil from Real Valinor, adding defensive solidity to their midfield without sacrificing attacking potential. More importantly, their shambolic back three has been almost completely overhauled.

Defence
Tirion acquired centre-backs Amrod and Amras from Valimar, a team that conceded but once every game in a Group E featuring forwards Túrin, Húrin, Tar-Minastir, Eärendil, and Tuor. Joining the two is their brother Caranthir, fresh from a phenomenal finals performance against Eriador. A central defender in Real Valinor’s cup-winning squad, he now plays on the left as an attacking full-back—his assist for Aredhel’s opener in the friendly against Angband came after an explosive burst down the touchline. On the right is the more defensive full-back Irimë, the only holdover from last year’s defenders.

There are concerns over their goalkeeper Finarfin. He has not brought his club form over to Tirion; he remains middling to poor when playing for Finwë’s squad (65.2% save rate during last year’s Arda Cup compared to 66.7% during this year’s friendlies).

Midfield
In the centre of the midfield are Anairë and Eldalótë, who have demonstrated excellent partnership in two friendly games. They generally stay in position instead of venturing forward. Mahtan, on their left, drifts infield when Tirion is in possession to allow Caranthir to overlap. Rúmil on the right is a more traditional winger, running down the flanks to deliver crosses. Both are defensively solid, allowing Tirion to form a secure barrier ahead of their defence in case they need to play defensively.

Attack
Ahead of them is a solid partnership of Finwë and Aredhel—both are comfortable with being the focal point of the offence or dropping deeper to play off the other. During their first friendly, Rúmil and Caranthir sent crosses into the box for Finwë, whose knockdowns were converted by Aredhel and Mahtan. And then during their second match, Finwë dropped to the midfield to avoid the attention of the Angband defence, while Aredhel sat on the shoulder of the defenders and timed runs on to through passes, one of which he converted for the opener.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Finwë
FORMATION: 4-4-2
PLAYING STYLE: attacking, pressing
STRENGTH: Attackers.
WEAKNESS: Goalkeeper.
KEY PLAYER: Finwë
QUESTION: Can they beat either the Sea or Nargothrond?
__________

Group F’s expected finish:

1. The Sea
2. Tirion
3. Nargothrond
4. Minas Tirith

[Nogrod]

Group A


Armenelos vs. The Havens

Both teams have been scoring and allowing goals pretty heavily. Even if it has also something to do with the opposition they’ve had in the friendlies it still tells one that both teams are perfectly cabable of scoring and neither has a defence of steel. So look forwards to some scoring with this game.

Both teams have lost to a contender to the whole cup and drawn with a serious team so the set up is both interesting and evenish. The winner of this one will be very near qualification already after the first game so the stakes are high – and a draw is a possibility.

Some factors do suggest Armenelos are slight favourites over The Havens.

First of all Armenelos has two sharp-shooters who can win games alone aka. Elros and Ar Pharazôn, whilst the Havens has to trust Eärendil will score (he has been in flames in the friendlies to be sure) – but Armenelos also has Ar Adunakhôr and Tar Ancalimôn in front who are more than perfectly measuring up to anything Cirdan or Falastur might have up in their sleeve on the other end.

Secondly, on overall terms Armenelos looks like a more solid team with basically no weak links anywhere whereas The Havens has some weaknesses in the center midfield – and partly in the defence. Also Tar Atanamir and Amandil might be more or less equal goalies but Tar Atanamir has a lot more experience and is probably an inch more reliable because of that.

The AKM predicts: Armenelos wins 2-1.


The Barrow-Downs vs. Valimar

Valimar hasn’t been too convincing in the friendlies even if one pays heed to the toughness of their opponents. Unless Arien finds her place in the Valimar attack there isn’t too much for them and their supporters to look forwards to this year. To their relief they can start the tournament with yet one more rehersal-game as there is no way the Barrow-Downs will pose any threat to Valimar – or to any other teams of the group.

Now you may ask “what about Bombadil?”, and you are right in asking that question. Old Tom is one of the best players in the whole Arda, but even he can’t win games single-handedly. Just look at the rosters and behold: Manwë, Mandos, Lórien, Arien, Estë, Vairë… and one Bombadil to beat them?

The Barrow-Wight is a good player as well, and the other Wights could prove their worth with the Saucepan Man and Hookbill – but yet they are just on another plane. Unless of course there is something only Manwë and Mandos understand regarding to Eru’s plans and therefore “miracles happen”.

But rather than betting on that the AKM suggests you bet for Valimar to win the game – but not with any humiliating scorelines, unless Arien finds her touch and is given the freedom to score.

The AKM predicts: Valimar wins 1-0 or 2-0 (2-1).


Group B


Inter Beleriand vs. Dwarves United

Whichever team wins this game is a major step nearer qualification as it is hard to believe both teams could beat AC Beleriand so that they both had a chance to qualify. And there will be no lesser team than Gondolin to mix in.

Comparing this group to fex. group H makes one smile or weep – depending on one’s character.

Anyway, Inter Beleriand is putting on some real effort this year and seem to be very serious with their goal of qualification. And they are put into the hardest test possible already in their first competitive game facing the masters of defence Dwarves United who have only strengthened their defence from last year by hiring Galadriel to protect their goal.

The game smells of a draw, but yet there are also certain factors that might change it. Last year Erebor was able to break Dwarves Utd’s defences for good, but then they had a dragon to do that. Now Galadriel’s cousins Fingon and Maedhros are no dragons but could be considered tough enough to have a chance trying. On the dwarven side, last year the responsibilty for scoring was laid more or less solely on the shoulders of Celebrimbor (from the defence!). This season Telchar has scored a goal – and all eyes are keen on Legolas to finally show why he is paid double the salary of Telchar.

To summarize: Dwarves United has issues with scoring but defends masterfully. Inter in turn has strengthened considerably by getting Beren to aid in the offence and Lúthien sure makes the life even harder for the Dwarven attackers. A low-scoring draw then?

The AKM predicts: draw 1-1 (0-0) or Inter wins 1-0.


AC Beleriand vs. Gondolin

AC Beleriand is one of the favourites to win the whole tournament and faces now a “must-win” game against Gondolin. And seeing that Gondolin was able to stop Hithlum on the second round of friendlies it is clear they are not looking forwards to a lazy afternoon walk in the park. This group is a pain for every team.

Gondolin on the other hand seems to be facing yet another uphill-struggle. Last year they were able to qualify before Inter Beleriand but were kicked off from the tournament by none other team but AC Beleriand on the first play-off round.

Now many think Gondolin has actually strengthened somewhat for this year even if they have almost the same budget they had last year (a lot depends on whether you think changing Gothmog into Tuor and Idril is a good or bad change). But to their horror both Beleriand teams have not only poured in more money, but they have strengthened seriously with that added cash. And the Dwarves United have gotten Galadriel to keep their goal to make scoring against them even harder.

Why AC Beleriand then wins this game? Tirion showed the defences of Gondolin can be opened and if that was done with the offensive trio Mahtan, Aredhel and Finwë, then why not with the quartet Fëanor, Eöl, Aegnor and Angrod? There are certain striking similarities there – and AC Beleriand will cling on them.

The AKM predicts: AC Beleriand wins 2-0 (or 2-1).


Group C


Hithlum vs. Real Valinor

One of the fanciest games of the first round – if not even the killer of the round. Two teams both with budgets over 100 million aim high this year – and not qualifying would be a disaster. Although the game isn’t such a “win or die” -one (like Inter Beleriand vs. Dwarves Utd. or Erebor vs. wilderland will be) as even the team that doesn’t win has everything in it’s own hands, and by beating both Shire-Bree and Doriath will qualify – something you could imagine both teams more than cabable of doing whatever happens in this game.

Many thought – the AKM included – that Real Valinor had weakened considerably from last year by selling two key-players off but looking at the friendlies it seems they haven’t weakened an inch. On the contrary: the champions of the last season look as sharp and devastating as ever and will seriously compete for renewing their title of the champions.

Hithlum in turn has strengthened considerably and is mortgaging all the belongings of the great house of Hador to change their fortunes this time around. With Beleg back on Túrin’s side and Húrin and Hador as constant threats around them there is no team in this tournament that could just count on shutting them out.

As both teams leak somewhat in their defences and score heavily one might look forwards to a feast of goals – and the deciding factor will be whether one can outscore the other. The game really feels like a draw as both teams would be quite content with it but if forced to bet on one team winn ing the AKM might put their money for Real Valinor.

The AKM predicts: draw 3-3.


Shire-Bree United vs. Doriath

The name of the game is clear. The team losing this game will need to say farewell to any dreams of qualifying this year as that would more or less demand them to beat both Real Valinor and Hithlum in the next games – a challenge only a few teams could match even in principle.

That said the winner isn’t having any better chances in qualifying as they’d need still put one of the two giants of this group behind them. But surely one miracle is more probable than two.

It is hard to compare the friendlies the two have played when Doriath was completely overrun by a truck named T-I-G while Shire-Bree had to do a full day’s work to beat the Barrow-Downs. On the other games Shire-Bree was left with a draw against Anduin while Doriath lost after a good fight to Inter Beleriand only 0-1.

Shire-Bree has in a way better-looking results but Doriath has faced a caliber or two tougher teams. So fex. allowing goals: it looks like Doriath allows a lot of goals (four in two matches) and Shire-Bree scores nicely (three in two) – so Shire-Bree will score against Doriath a few goals with some ease?

Well, first of all Doriath conceded three goals against the hurricane called T-I-G and actually defended well enough allowing a tough team like Inter Beleriand (Maedhros, Fingon, Beren) only to score one. Meanwhile Shire-Bree scored only two against one of the weakest teams, the Barrow-Downs, and only managed one goal against the at best mediocre team of Anduin.

Doriath’s scoring-form remains unknown though and Shire-Bree’s defence against serious opposition is totally untested as yet, so it is hard to predict the outcome.

The AKM predicts: draw 1-1.


Group D


Isengard vs. FC Valinor

No sane person would bet on Isengard on this one. Eönwe, Thorondor and Huan are more than a match for Saruman however powerful Maia he might be – and totally unimpressed by a Nazgûl. And if someone is fit to fool the ents in the defence it is Yavanna, not to talk of the brothers Curufin and Celegorm who will just frighten the living daylights off the Isengard-orcs however bred to stand light they would be.

Indeed the AKM will predict a slaughter here.

The ball is round and sometimes even the best teams just have a bad day – or the lousy teams surprise everyone – but it is not this day and this game where that happens.

The AKM predicts: FC Valinor wins 3-0 (4-0).


Barad-Dûr vs. Gondor

The stakes are high in a game between Barad Dûr and Gondor, as it more or less decides the other qualifier from this group – unless Isengard organises a super-surprise and beats them both in the later games. Which the AKM will not believe they will do.

In a way it is a game of the Gondorian kings against Sauron’s Foreign Legion of beasts, eastern wizards, Black Númenorians and other darker characters from the outskirts of the Gondorian realm. So it is fitting as well that it is just these two teams battling it out in the football field. There will be some extra sparks in the air when Eldacar and Castamir, or Anárion and Sauron to that matter, meet again. And only one of the two teams has a chance to flourish.

Looking at the firendlies it might look like Gondor would be the more effective team of the two – although their draw with Minas Tirith doesn’t look that impressive. Meanwhile, even if their scoring has been lower Barad Dûr has drawn with Arnor which is definitively better team than Minas Tirith, and they have beaten Misty Mountains – which in turn is definitively tougher team than Mordor whom Gondor beat in their first friendly game.

So even if this game too smells somewhat like a draw the AKM would give an edge to Barad Dûr – not the least because they have Sauron who is not used into losing on the initial rounds of any effort he gives.

The AKM predicts: Barad Dûr wins 2-1, or a draw 1-1.


Group E


Eriador vs. Misty Mountains

Eriador should win Misty Mountains and even quite comfortably if they look forwards to achieving glory in the tournament this year. The only questionmark is the current readiness and striking power of Eriador as they have not been tested in the friendlies for real.

Misty Mountains in turn has toughened their defences with Gwaihir and Caradhras (in exchange to the two soft-headed trolls Tom and Bert) but has still given up two goals in both of its friendlies – against quite modest teams of Imladris and Barad Dûr.

So in comparison Eriador should score at least three. The question being only, can they do that now when it is needed and there is no Witch King to do that for them? Glorfindel sure is ready for it, but how about Isildur, Arveleg or NogWight – they’d need to start to deliver if Eriador wishes to go far in this tournament. And with that kind of investment it is clear that is what they mean – and mean it seriously.

Some pressure on team Eriador then while Misty Mountains have nothing to lose from this game as their primary targets will be Erebor and Wilderland – and thusly the second qualification. That spells for a more even game.

The AKM predicts: Eriador wins 2-0 (or 2-1).


Erebor vs. Wilderland

No soft beginnings for the two teams here but possibly the single most important game in the group-rounds will be given to them as starters. Now Misty Mountains might prove a problem to either of the two and both have a chance to beat Eridor on a great day, but just looking at it from a conservative POV it is this game they have to win if they wish to qualify – and losing this particular game would be the worst case scenario for both of them.

With little to say from the friendlies – both did win some of the poorest teams of the tournament with dismal records and Wilderland draw goalless with the Dwarves Utd. – one does well to look at the rosters.

Beorn against the Great Warg. Point for Erebor from goalkeepers.

In defence two eagles, Thorin Oakenshield and the last lord of the Dale against two ents, an elven king and a wizard. The two eagles make it turn just so to the side of Erebor.

In the midfield a dwarven warrior-king, his human fellow-king in arms and the orc-leader (Azog’s son) Bolg against the pretty sad “first-awaken” and an entwife. No problem in giving the point to Erebor.

The offence looks the closest. The two Nazgûl kind of cancel each other out. Smaug gets the better of the two dragons but then again Thranduil beats Bard in scoring quite easily – especially as Bard has been quite disappointing this year after his great season last year. Draw here, or a slight edge to Wilderland.

So two points to Erebor from goalkeeping and the midfield, and half points to Erebor from the defence and Wilderland for offence – two and a half agains half points.

The AKM predicts: Erebor wins 2-1 (or they draw 2-2).


Group F


Nargothrond vs. Minas Tirith

Now Minas Tirith is not a bad team and they will be full of energy to show especially the big media that they are no pushovers. But it might just be they have had the worst of luck with the lottery for the groups and will have no chance to show the Arda how good they could have been against a little lesser opponents than the ones they meet in this group.

For it is just true that all the other teams of the group: The Sea, Nargothrond and Tirion could all go as far as the semifinals, or even further on a good day – and at the same time at least one of them will stay in the group-stage. Now whether they are willing to let Minas Tirith come and muddle the already tough competition for the two qualifying places can be asked but the answer is clear.

That said Nargothrond has one of the most crushing offences this tournament has and they have scored five goals in two games against such tough adversaries that only Real Valinor might boast of a similar feat. And with Minas Tirith giving in two goals to both Erebor and Gondor one might foresee that Nargothrond will score at least as much, if not more against them.

So the rest depends merely on whether Mardil can still score when the real games begin – or whether fex. Boromir comes alive again. Nargothrond isn’t exactly the champions of defence and their game-plan often is just outscoring the opponent. So how many Minas Tirith will score?

The AKM predicts: Nargothrond wins 3-1 (4-2).


Tirion vs. The Sea

A very important game for both teams here as a loss would make qualification a lot harder for either team. That in turn smells like a draw, but lets see what could make it otherwise.

Now the Sea likes to play from defence onwards and to suffocate any enemy offences. You could say it is easy to do that to Valimar if you have players with enough quality as they won’t rage back, but to shut out FC Valinor is a deed indeed – and showing they can do it they have also warned all the other teams that people should not only talk of the Dwarves Utd. as a team that can kill off the opponent’s attacking spirits.

That said Tirion has shown their defences are not bad either. Shutting out Gondolin is a fair result and only allowing Angband one goal isn’t bad either. But on the other end of the field they scored two against Gondolin and one against Angband showing also their potential in scoring.

So it will be a fight on one hand of Aredhel, Finwë and Mahtan against Tar Aldarion and Tar Minastir – and on the other the sons of Fëanor against the Ulmo led Maiar in defence.

It would be easy to say that Tirion gets the points from offence and The Sea from defence.

So a draw then? Most probably.

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 (0-0).


Group G


Anfaughlith vs. Imladris

Give Imladris a little easier group and they’d fight for qualification with their Varda-led defence, but sadly they have been allotted into a group of some real bloodthirsty beasts and greater evil only too happy to play it vicious, cruel and aggressive.

But maybe, in a sense, it is fitting that it is exactly Elbereth GIlthoniel who is leading the one team of light facing Morgoth, Ungoliant and the Werewolves. Maybe.

The hope Imladris has in this game relies in Varda taking out Gothmog and the other defenders being able to deal with Ecthelion together. That accomplished they might hope for a low scoring game from Ungoliant’s team. And it is here where losing Elros from the goal seems to cut deep.

On the other end Elladan and Elrohir would need to score past the Balrogs and finally Ungoliant which seems like a bit too tough a task to ask from the noble but young elves. So we probably don’t see too many goals on Anfaughlith’s end either.

Anfaughlith will score at least one. Will Imladris be able to counter that is the question.

The AKM predicts: Anfaughlith wins 1-0 (2-1), or they draw 1-1.


Angband vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth

If Hithlum vs. Real Valinor is one of the highlights of this round then this one is the other. There will be blood on the arena and the fight will be tough. And there is a reason for both teams not willing to lose this game, or to come second in their group in general as that would most probably mean facing AC Beleriand on the first round of the play-offs – something no sane team would do voluntarily.

Now whether the werewolves of the T-I-G are sane is another matter altogether. And anyway, even the winner of the group will have a tough opponent in Inter Beleriand, Dwarves Utd. or Gondolin. And Anfaughlith sure wants to mess with the qualifying as well. Both teams just need a win then and so neither will settle with a draw unless it is the last minutes.

Angband has drawn with Hithlum and Tirion in the friendlies while T-I-G has beaten Doriath for good and won the Havens 2-1. So what to make of it? Basically nothing. Angband has drawn with really tough teams and T-I-G has won somewhat weaker ones (even though Havens is actually quite a good team).

At the goal ShastaWolf has proved to be a top keeper during the years, but so has Carcaroth. There is no clear difference there even if ShastaWolf might be just that weeny bit more reliable.

In defence T-I-G has the more solid team overall with three werewolves, including the sire of all werewolves Draugluin. But aided with a Balrog and Tevildo’s servant Umuiyan Angband has Morgoth – the kind of a clutch-player any team would envy weren’t he what he is. Yet Morgoth’s presence makes it a draw in defence, if not turns it slightly on their favour.

The midfield is the weak spot for both teams, but one where the easterlings of Angband seem to match the Wights of T-I-G. But Phantomwolf might just be a more dangerous player compared to Oikeroi – even if the latter has a close relationship with their forwards Tevildo and Phantomwolf lacks his longtime-mate NogWolf from the attack.

In offence Thuringwethil beats Tevildo quite easily but then again Ancalagon is a greater threat than InzilWolf – even if the latter can be a menacing forwards as well.

So all in all it is very even indeed – but maybe surpisingly to some – the slight edge would go to Tol In Gaurhoth –team. A lot depends on the role Morgoth is willing to play though.

The AKM predicts: Draw 2-2, or T-I-G wins 3-2.


Group H


Mordor vs. Rohan

Now many words have been used describing the “under-budgeting” of team Mordor and how they have no chance whatsoever to do anything. But happily for them they are in a group where even such a bunch of players with no expectations could play a part – if not otherwise then as kingmakers.

Even if the level of the game in group H isn’t exactly blinding it has made the betting agencies and media-houses make different predictions and is honestly quite a tough group to call. But what most agencies have in common is the fact that Mordor does not figure in their predictions as a qualifier – and the AKM agrees with that verdict.

Like said, even if they wouldn’t be qualifying they might make a difference and it is easy to see that their Nazgûls and Shelob might affect especially a team like Rohan – and to have the least extra effect on Anduin.

What gives hope to Rohan is that Gondor beat Mordor 3-1 in the friendlies and they’d only need to gather the pride and strength of their ancient neighbours to do the same – but that is the trick. Winning Isengard is another thing than meeting the beasts of Mordor even if their game isn’t any better than what Isengard has to offer. And one does well to remember that Mordor only lost to Erebor 0-1.

The AKM predicts: Rohan wins 1-0 or a draw 0-0.


Anduin vs. Arnor

Many think this to be the game that decides the winner of the group – others think Rohan has a word to say in it. Be that as it may, it will be a tough game and very hard to call.

The AKM has Anduin as the favourites to win this game because of two reasons: more solid performance in the friendlies and a more solid team. Let us be particular about those.

In the friendlies Anduin lost to Eriador only 0-1 and draw with Shire-Bree while Arnor draw with both Barad Dûr and Imladris. Both teams scored only one goal in the two friendlies they played but Anduin allowed one in both whereas Arnor allowed only one.

Now of the teams they met Eriador should be on the league of it’s own and thusly the result should be taken as what it is – a good performance. Also Shire-Bree with it’s Gandalf-led offence looks a bit sharper than Imladris or Barad Dûr, even if the difference isn’t that great. So taken that together, Anduin has a better record from the friendlies.

As we look at the rosters Arnor has the Witch King in the offence and Elendil and Malbeth in defence and Arvedui at the goal. That is pretty decent but the other players are not even near the quality of the aforementioned.

Anduin instead has not the kind of stars like the Witch King, but has depth beyond Arnor – and some pretty well-seasoned players as well; like Grimbeorn and Eorl in the attack, Boromir and Haldir in the midfield, and Fram, Celeborn and Felarof in the defence. Amroth isn’t probably as great a keeper than Arvedui but he’s a seasoned one as well and can do his job well enough – at least for this group.

So unless the Witch King gets a boost and goes for a rampage Anduin will win it – even if a draw is a possible scenario as well.

The AKM predicts: Anduin wins 1-0 (or a draw 0-0).

[Boromir88]

Our tireless team of statisticians, analysts and experts always attempt to find new ways to break down the stats, analyze and then come up with a projection. For 2013 the new wave hitting TTN is "Wins Above Replacement" (or "WAR" for short).

Over the past several Arda Cups we've looked at total production (position-by-position) in order to come up with the averages at each position. Then we looked at the player production to determine the value of that player.

For example, Ar-Pharazon's WAR is +4.9, which means if we were to theoretically replace an average FW with Ar-Pharazon on the roster, than that team would have won almost 5 more games. Or on the flipside Fatty Lumpkin's -1.7 WAR, means replace an average DF with Fatty Lumpkin and that team would lose almost 2 more games.

Some more important notes: Over the years many players have changed positions, and many others are making either their tournament debut or debut at a new position. So there simply might be less data and history to look at and compare. Ar-Pharazon's WAR is quite high because his entire career he has been a FW (but it also means he's been an extremely good FW). Where someone like Elros has spent years as a GK or MF. Since Elros is a mid-fielder this year, we took his previous tournaments as as a MF and didn't factor in the years he was a GK.

GROUP A

Armenelos
FRIENDLIES:
-Nargothrond (D3-3)
-AC Beleriand (L1-2)

Probably not the friendly results Armenelos was hoping to have but nothing to be alarmed or discouraged about. A draw with a playoff quality team and 1-goal loss to a serious title contender this year.

Tar-Atanamir is a quality keeper and while his best year was clearly when Armenelos won the title in 2009, and there was a drop in his numbers after 2009, the drop wasn't too severe and it has levelled off. Manwe is definitely the best GK in the group, but the other pair of safe hands is Tar-Atanamir.

The most troublesome part for Armenelos is their defense. Tar Telperien has a high WAR (+3.9) but most of that comes from excellent 2008 and 2009 campaigns. Her drop in production coincided with the departures of Ar-Zimrathon and Tar-Cirytan from the defense, which I think just goes to prove Armenelos defensive strength comes from the combined team effort and cohesion, not individual stars. When paired with an average and relatively inexperienced defender, Tar Palantir (+0.2) and a very poor Tar-Calmacil (-0.8), the defense will struggle. On the positive side the other teams in this group only have 1 legitimate scoring threat each, and so the team defense should be good enough against the teams in this group. But when facing a team with multiple weapons, I think you'll see the same results as the friendlies...Armenelos vulnerable to giving up goals.

Armenelos' greatest advantage comes in the FWs and attacking MFs. I've already discussed Ar Pharazon in the opening, but it's worth mentioning even when he's handicapped on a roster that is defensively oriented he produced goals and won games. The king is a pro and he has won many games off his golden boots for his homeland. Then not to mention Ar Adunakhor who is a consisten complimentary player and Elros who is historically a better goalie, but is also a proven field commander in making sure his scorers upfront get quality passes. It's worth mentioning Tar Ancalimon and Tar Miriel as well. Because as primary scorers they are completely outclassed, but they fit nicely into the supportive role and 4th and 5th scoring threat on Armenelos.

Barrow-Downs
FRIENDLIES:
-Shire Bree Utd (L1-2)
-Eriador (L0-3)

Low budget aside, the team is trying out way too many players in new positions, leaving way too many question marks before the tournament. It's risky just to have 1 unknown going into group play. Don't get me wrong there is talent on the team. GwathWight's numbers as a defender (albeit is only based on 2 years) are solid (+0.9). But with the unknowns at the back (Alien and the Barrow-wight) plus the rest which is quite frankly garbage, (Lumpkin's -1.7, River Woman -0.6) I don't see how their defense can hold up.

At the front Bombadil is always capable of going off on a highlight performance but his focus is way too fleeting to be relied upon from match-to-match.

The Havens
FRIENDLIES:
-Inter Beleriand (D3-3)
-Tol In Gaurhoth (L1-2)

The other team that might have hoped for better results in the friendlies, but nothing to be alarmed about. They played good competition and statistically came out similar to Armenelos.

Their defense is conventional, they'll play you straight up but ultimately it is beatable. Ar Zimrathon is their best defender (+0.7) but that is exclusively from 2009 as Ar Zimrathon's numbers have evened out over the other seasons. Their defense relies more on their possession game (which they are definitely very good at).

The trouble with The Haven's midfield is, yes they are experts in the quick passing game and controlling possession. But they struggle turning that possession advantage into goals. Their midfielders all have a negative WAR (excluding Falastur...but he's basically the epitome of average with a +0.1) because they just don't produce goals. Cirdan's height is an advantage when going up against orcs...but he will get no such advantage with the defenses he'll be facing in this group. It should be relatively easy for Armenelos and Valimar to neutralize Cirdan.

I guess that's why they have Earendil, because he is the lad that will produce goals. And with the Havens passing game he'll definitely get a lot of opportunities, but he's just not enough. Earendil's best position is in the MF and when he players like Tilion and Eonwe around him in 2008, or Gil Galad and Glorfindel in 2009. As an attacking mid-fielder his WAR is great (2 years as MF, +1.8)...as a FW it's good, but not anything outstanding (3 years as a FW, +1.1).

Valimar
FRIENDLIES:
-The Sea (L0-1)
-Real Valinor (L1-3)

Even if Valinor played a more rigorous friendly schedule than the rest of the teams in the group, there is some reason for concern. To be fair, The Sea and Real Valinor are legit title contenders this year, but I think the friendly results just goes to show that Valimar is not. Question is, are they still good enough to make it out of this group? Yes.

Defensively they've got the talent to win it. Also, defensively they're all in their proper positions. Ever since Manwe swapped positions with Namo it was a most wise decision by the Valar. With the entire field in front of him, Manwe is much better at setting up his defensive alignments, while Namo is better at noticing where a team is planning to build their attack seconds before they're actually able to do it. But not just those two, the other defenders are in their most natural and comfortable positions which only helps them succeed more.

Similar to The Havens, the real problems come in the mid-field. Another team that loves to control possession (and are experts at doing so) in the mid-field, but again it's a mid-field that just doesn't produce the goals. Ingwe's bounced around from being a DF, to a GK, to a MF. He'll now have to be the elf who tries to get some pressure off Arien, but it's unknown whether he's capable of that. And as much as I praised Manwe for positioning his defenders for success...everyone in the MF just seems out of position. Irmo and Ilmare should be swapped. Statistics show Ilmare is better at feeding balls to the FWs than Irmo.

So, it will come down to how effective Arien can be in this situation. It won't be so much Manwe's conservative style that hold's Arien back. I think it will be lack of another viable threat. I mean you're going to excel when you're with the likes of Miriel and Nerdanel. But even in 2010 Arien had Varda and Eonwe as a supporting cast...Who does she have here...Ingwe? Irmo?

With that being said, since The Havens and Valimar appear very similar, and they appear to have the same strengths and weaknesses, I'll give the slight favor to Valimar based on a tougher defense.

Projected Standings:
1. Armenelos
2. Valimar
3. The Havens
4. Barrow-Downs

[Boromir88]

GROUP B

AC Beleriand
FRIENDLIES:
-Anfauglith (W2-1)
-Armenelos (W2-1)

Two wins against playoff caliber teams and they should be able to handle this group comfortably. An interesting fact, Feanor's teams have never been eliminated before the quarterfinals. Even in 2011 when he was quite limitted playing with 3rd Age teammates in Galadriel's conservative style, Feanor saw Lothlorien into the quarter-finals. I suppose there has to be a first time for everything, but this team has top class at all the key positions.

Marach's a decent GK, it's rightfully asked whether he is an Arda Cup winning one though. Last year he was clearly the week point of a very good defense, led by Fingolfin who has quickly risen as a top notch defender. Rochallor and Imlach are in their proper positions and there is no loss when in the offseason AC Beleriand exchanged Ecthelion for a Balrog.

Their loss is going to be in the MF, with the hopes Angrod and Aegnor can make up Beren's production. History and WAR tells us they can not (Beren's +1.9) Angrod and Aegnor combined (-0.5). Now it's true those two have not played with FWs as great of a combo as Feanor and Eol before and it's also true Beren's best year was last year...playing with Feanor and Eol. But still, even when Beren's had to carry the offense on his shoulder (2010 for Gelion) he was out producing Angrod and Aegnor combined.

This isn't going to hurt AC Beleriand making it out of Group B, but it will hurt them in the playoffs unless the brothers can suddenly find the skill to make up for Beren's departure.

Inter Beleriand
FRIENDLIES:
-Havens (D3-3)
-Doriath (W1-0)

We're not sure why the other networks seem so assure of Inter Beleriand's advancement as they quickly dismiss Dwarves United and don't give too much credit to Gondolin. This team is extremely susceptible in the back.

Turgon is naturally a leader of a defense, but as a GK, he really leaves a lot to be desired. He's great at setting up walls and arranging the defense in front of him, when the opponents have set pieces (free kicks, or corner kicks). However, he simply doesn't pocess the reaction of say Galadriel or Carcharoth. And you really need to have that quick reaction skill, particularly when facing the FWs Inter Beleriand will be up against in this group.

Defensively they're even more shaky. Luthien is an adequate DF (but still only a WAR o +0.4 at that position). Luthien is not a great matchup against big powerful FWs. (2008 against Ar-Pharazon, 2009 against TIG, and 2010 against Ancalagon) Luthien was eventually worn down by all of them as her team was eliminated. Maeglin, Tuor, Feanor and Eol are probably not going to viciously bang up Luthien like all those other FWs mentioned, but they will definitely use their size and power to wear her down.

The rest of the defense is in even worse shape. The WAR stat that gives someone the most negative points is a red card. When you're sent off the field, you are really handicapping your team. Yellow cards aren't too much of a negative, because sometimes you need that aggressive, hard play to stop a scoring threat. Caranthir and Morgoth have, for example, have mastered the skil of knowing when to be aggressive and take a yellow, and when to pull back knowing they can't be sent off the field. Gorlim hasn't and is just a morale killer.

A lot is going to depend on Beren who had his break out season last year. That was with Feanor and Eol (+9.8 and +5.4 respectively) however. Maedhros and Fingon are good, but they're several notches below (+4.9 and +3.1). But they should all be able to complement eachother well. It'll be a tough 3-way battle for 2nd.

Dwarves United
FRIENDLIES:
-Wilderland (D0-0)
-Rohan (W1-0)

Now it seems to me that no one is giving Dwarves United much of a chance. They forget defensively this team just has it all. It's true last year they probably benefitted from a group of 3rd Age heroes and now they'll be up against sturdier competition. But you also can't forget Celebrimbor, Aule and Galadriel are all legends of the 1st Age too...with Durin the Deathless and Azaghal in support as well. We'll agree with TENT too that Fili and Kili are quality defensive mid-fielders, the brothers are intune with eachother and they're a good pair playing together.

Having said that, there is no denying what the rest of the medias all say...their offensive players can't score goals. Even with the high-powered Mirkwood offense from '08 to '09, Legolas was below average (-0.2)...and this is with Scatha and Thranduil as teammates! When factoring in the other tournaments -0.9 (excludes 2011 because he was a MF...with the aid of Feanor and Boromir II). Legolas is a one tool threat, and that is long distance projectiles. One of his trademark snipes going in might be all that is needed however, because the only team we'd place money on scoring on Dwarves United is AC Beleriand.

Gondolin
FRIENDLIES:
-Tirion (L0-2)
-Hithlum (D2-2)

Played 2 playoff quality teams in the friendlies, the 0-2 loss to Tirion is troubling but draw with Hithlum makes up for some of the troubled thoughts.

Rog had one fantastic year at GK (2010)...take out that year and he's well...bad, to put it kindly. So, understandably everyone is right in saying Rog greatly benefitted from playing with Ulmo and his loyal vassals shut-down defense in 2010. But as mentioned earlier, Turgon for Inter Beleriand is nothing to brag about either.

We keep catching ourselves comparing Gondolin and Inter Beleriand because they are very similar in team make-up. Inter Beleriand might be slightly more athletic defensively, but Gondolin plays smarter. They don't have a player that runs the risk of being red-carded, like Gorlim...so in TTN's mind, this negates whatever advantage Inter has with Luthien.

At the MF, history and productions shows Duilin and Idril are in their most natural positions. Idril and Duilin are great at getting the balls to their FWs (and unlike Angrod and Aegnor for AC Bel), they actually make up for Beren's production, combined WAR +2.5

Then at the front Maeglin and Tuor are comparable to Maedhros and Fingon. Maeglin's playoff pedigree is better as the "Sharp-Boot" is just clutch under the playoff lights (but he's sometimes not present in the group rounds). Tuor is great at using his height. Maeglin and Idril are good at attracting the attention of the better defenders (Fingolfin, Luthien, Celebrimbor), so it should leave Tuor good chances on some of the more dimunitive defenders (the dwarves, Gorlim...etc)

Projected Standings:
1. AC Beleriand
2. Gondolin
3. Inter Beleriand
4. Dwarves United

[Boromir88]

GROUP C

Doriath
FRIENDLIES:
-Tol In Gaurhoth (L0-3)
-Inter Beleriand (L0-1)

Doriath is in for a cruel awakening this year. It's not that they don't have good talent, but they just lack the depth and stamina in too many positions. And the fact they didn't score a goal in the friendlies (while surrending 4) says all you need to know about Doriath this year.

Dior is a capable GK (+0.8)...even behind a weak defense. Melian will definitely help keep pressure off Dior, but the other 3 defenders are bad (combined -3.1).

The MF is also weak...Thingol is an ok passer but not much of a goal-scorer. Then the rest of the MF...Daeron? Saeros? They've done virtually nothing and it's far too easy for opponents to get under Saeros' skin.

Then Mablung, who is also just..."eh." He's nothing that will catch your attention with how dazzling the attacks of Hithlum and Real Valinor will be. Sure he got a hat-trick last year against Nargothrond, but he did absolutely nothing else in all the rest of Doriath's games (including friendlies) last year.

Hithlum
FRIENDLIES:
-Angband (D2-2)
-Gondolin (D2-2)

They were probably hoping (and if they are expected to contend for the cup) to beat Gondolin. But scoring 2 goals against Angband is a positive. And both of them are definitely playoff caliber teams.

Huor is needing this year to bounce back after a horrid 2011. From 2008-2010, he was a dependable, championship GK (silver-medalist, quarter finalist, and champion in that 3 year span)...then 2011 just a nightmare, and it might have been he didn't feel comfortable in Anfauglith in that year. Returning in 2013 and playing with family might just be what Huor needs to have a bounceback year.

A lot of problems still with the defense, but the Balrog is in his natural position. Galdor and Gundor are not shut-down defenders, but whatever the case they have experience as defenders and history shows they are an improvement over Gethron and Grithnir. It's one of those defenses that is just good enough to get some key stops and move the ball quickly upfront to their amazing talent of scorers.

I don't need to say much about the quality of the quartet of attackers other than: Turin (+9.1), Hurin (+7.8) Beleg (+4.5) and Hador (+1.4). TTN will call it the most prolific offense in 2013. If Real Valinor still had Arien, it would be debatable.

Shire-Bree United
FRIENDLIES:
-Barrow Downs (W2-1)
-Anduin (D1-1)

Their friendly opponents don't compare in strength when looking at the other teams in the group. But you can't say anything bad about the results of winning the Barrow-Downs and drawing Anduin.

Shire-Bree has moved from a strong attacking team to a defensively oriented one. Their defense is under-rated because they've got some legs at their downstairs. What we mean is, Shadowfax, Gildor, and a Nazgul they can all run and won't tire out. Which they'll certainly need in this group, as their defenders will have to do a lot of chasing because...

Shire-Bree's midfield is quite poor. Gandalf and another Nazgul are going to be more focused on the offense, and it leaves Ferny, Bandobras, and Butterbur to try to get the ball away from Turin, Hurin, Beleg and Miriel, Nerdanel, Orome? Heh...riiight.

Their offense isn't too bad (we'll certainly put it more dangerous than Doriath's), but it is a few steps backwards from where they were at last year. Gandalf is better suited as a defender, but seeing as they needed a lot of help revamping their offense, he's needed most in the mid-field. Also, if Gandalf ever really had a place he could call "home," it would be here, in the Shire. Khamul's skills are better suited for a MF because he is very good from set pieces and delivering crosses to past teammates like the Witch-King or Sauron. As the lone striker he could be out of position, but with Nazgul #6 in the MF they should be intune to eachother's minds.

Real Valinor
FRIENDLIES:
-FC Valinor (D2-2)
-Valimar (W3-1)

A tough friendly schedule that they handled quite well this looks like a team ready for the playoffs already. In all groups you would put them as one of the favorites to advance, but they won't repeat as champions. They've simply lost too much on defense with Caranthir leaving, and then on offense with Arien.

Tulkas had quite an awful performance in last year's group play (allowing 5 goals in 3 games), but then he just shut it down in the playoffs (allowing only 2 in 4 games, and those 2 were against AC Beleriand). So, we'll have to see if he can be inspired to give the same effort in the group round.

Tilion is better when he's in the MF. A lot usually depends on his mood, but when he's in the right one he can put together an impressive string of games scoring several goals. Then he's prone to disappearing for a few games when he's in a bad mood. As a defender you can't afford to be off your game, I mean this is the Arda Cup! It's why Real Valinor will miss Caranthir the most. We hate to keep beating on this point, because Caranthir isn't the best defender, but he's a strong one, aggressive, and what you like most is he gives max effort all the time. Tilion's effort tends to come and go.

The MF is the weakest part of the team, their job isn't going to be much more than get the ball, and don't keep it for long, pass it up to the FWs as quickly as possible. Which they should be able to do, at least in this group and their FWs are extremely good at holding the ball in the attacking third and putting opposing defenses under constant stress.

As mentioned, Nerdanel, Miriel, and Orome are not only great goal-scorers, but they're very good at holding onto the ball, constantly makes the defenses work. Defenses will need a lot of stamina when facing this team. The issue is it looks like a team that is vulnerable on the counter...because when a defenses can finally steal the ball away, with the small 3-person midfield and moodiness of Tilion it's a recipe for quick counter attacks.

Projected Standings
1. Hithlum
2. Real Valinor
3. Shire-Bree
4. Doriath

GROUP D

Barad-Dur
FRIENDLIES:
-Arnor (D0-0)
-Misty Mountains (W2-1)

It's interesting how Barad-Dur's 2 friendly opponents are actually quite similar (in terms of gameplay) to 2 of their group opponents...Gondor and Isengard. Like Arnor, Gondor is not going to make mistakes and Isengard relies on a mix of cunning and brute strength. We were rather disappointed with Barad-Dur's friendly performance. I beating the Misty Mts is not bad, but neither Arnor nor Misty Mts look like teams that can go on a deep run in the playoffs.

Grishnakh is making his debut at goalie and so far he has performed well as his long limbs gives the orc good goal coverage. Alatar and Pallando are good improvements to their weak defense last year (the Blue Wizards with a +1.6 WAR...each).

The MF is very crafty with a Numenorean, some pirates, and the agile Beruthiel. The Queen of Cats history shows that she knows well the tactics and secrets of breaking down Gondor, which Sauron will most surely use to his advantage.

Sauron is not a pure "goal-scorer," that is he's not a FW like Turin, Feanor, Miriel, Ar Pharazon...etc their jobs are to score goals and they all do it well. Sauron is more a premiere passer who can put it in goal on occassion. History reveals in 5 Arda Cups (and total of 25 games played) Sauron only has 15 goals, but he's got 19 assists. Sauron loves drawing up set pieces and deceiving defenses on free kicks...so he'll probably try to target the tall form of Castamir in those situations.

Gondor
FRIENDLIES:
-Mordor (W3-1)
-Minas Tirith (D2-2)

Like Barad-Dur dind't have a difficult friendly schedule, but also there were no alarming losses.

Gondor is more vulnerable at the back than Barad-Dur, and maybe even more vulnerable than Isengard. Imrahil is coming in as an unknown factor making his debut at GK. And the three defenders don't offer much to get you excited about their ability to shut down a team. I mean, they surrendered 3 goals to Mordor and Minas Tirith, which means they'll likely give up goals to Barad-Dur and Isengard, not to even mention FC Valinor.

The key to the team will be the mid-field, they are very good at holding possession, but unlike other teams we mentioned in our guides, they're also good at turning that possession into goals. Eldacar is not flashing, but he is consistant and it's difficult for any team to keep him off the stat sheet. And Anarion, well he's just seemed to hit a new vigor and life to to his game after not really doing much from '08-'11.

Isengard
FRIENDLIES:
-Rohan (L1-2)
-Wilderland (L1-2)

Not embarrassing defeats, but defeats nonetheless, and to teams who don't seem like favorites to make the playoffs, and if they do, are probably going out in the 1st round anyways. So, that should really tell you the quality of Isengard this year. They could rattle the cages of Barad-Dur and Gondor for sure, and play spoiler their chances of going through are very small.

The Ent defenders are deadly when they're worked up in a rage (which they might get to when playing Barad-Dur). And it's not that they're slow, but they really don't change direction well. Against Gondor it shouldn't be a problem, because their attack is more methodical and through the center. But crikey, Celegrom and Curufin are going to be able to run circles around this team...with Treebeards WAR at -1.5, and it only gets worse from there...

Saruman's bounceback began in 2010 then he had an even better 2011 season. With support from Wormtongue and a Nazgul, their MF has some bite to it and should be able to hold their own against Barad-Dur's and Gondor's midfield. Their deeper midfielders (Lurtz, Wulf and Lugdush) are seriously going to have to help out the defense though.

Then we get to Quickbeam, who played FW in 2009 (went goalless in 3 games) and last year (1 goal in 3 games). If we combine his two years as an attacking MF...in a ground total of 12 games...Quickbeam's production is 2+2. That's atrocious. The Ent's only threat is on set pieces when Isengard can target him for a header, he's got absolutely no close-control or ability to hold the ball upfront. And considering FC Valinor has an eagle, and Barad-Dur has two fellbeasts, those defenses should be able to contain Quickbeam when Isengard tries to target him for a header.

FC Valinor
FRIENDLIES:
-Real Valinor (D2-2)
-The Sea (D0-0)

If they don't confidantly clear this group, then there is some serious unforeseen flaw in this team...I'm not going to go into too much detail, but here is the deal...

The best GK in the group, easily is Huan.

The best defense in the group, FC Valinor...easily. Eonwe is unknown but joined by Maglor, Indis, and Thorondor it's no question. Thorondor is in a more suitable position this year, he's not meant to be a leader on defense. Even if Eonwe is an unknown factor, what is not questionable is his leadership ability.

Best MF is slightly closer/more debatable but Yavanna and Argon excelled last year. Gondor's might be better as a unit and they don't make mistakes, but athletically FC Valinor's is superior.

Best FWs...no question Celegorm and Curufin.

The only question is whether this team will care to give a full effort, but even just going half-heartedly going through the motions there's no reason they shouldn't dominate this group.

Projected Standings
1. FC Valinor
2. Barad-Dur
3. Gondor
4. Isengard

[Boromir88]

GROUP E

Erebor
FRIENDLIES:
-Minas Tirith (W2-1)
-Mordor (W1-0)

Two wins against inferior teams in the friendlies doesn't say much about Erebor, other than what we already knew. They'll be tough to beat for any of the teams in this group at least.

Their glaring weak link in the back is Thorin. His hot temper has seen him sent off the field too many times. He's not as much of a morale killer as Gorlim, but still it's all the same being red-carded makes your team play a man short. Interestingly enough in 2010, it was Thorin (playing for Rivendell then) being red-carded in the match against the Misty Mountains that allowed Misty Mountains to battle back and get the draw (keeping Rivendell out of the playoffs that year too). Girion's a solid defender that should be able to keep the other offenses in check, but if he can't keep his dwarf under control, Erebor could very well have an early exit. Beorn was nothing short of amazing last year, it seems he's found his true niche on the team.

A lot is going to depend on if Bolg can command the mid-field as he's capable of doing, but he's been up-and-down his whole career. But if the ball gets to the trio of attackers up front, any one of them are capable goal-scorers. Smaug had his best year last year, but even in the years when the dragon's teams got eliminated in their groups Smaug is hard to keep off the scoreboard. Smaug's history shows he's not a FW who is likely to give you a dominating single game performance. He's more a consistant, 1goal/per game type of scorer.


Eriador
FRIENDLIES:
-Anduin (W1-0)
-Barrow Downs (W3-0)

Their competition wasn't any better than Erebor's, but somehow the way they didn't allow a goal as well as still scoring more than any of the other teams in Group E, shows that Eriador is the class of the group.

Elrond's skill and mastery speaks for itself. Hands down the best GK in the tournament. It'll be interesting to see how the defense does compared to last year with two new players on defense (Aragorn and Arwen). Athletically I don't see why they wouldn't do well, and there won't be any problems fitting in with Elrond's system of team and unity first. It doesn't seem like they have anyone that can hold down the aerial threats of Smaug and Scatha though. That task will fall upon Gil-Galad being one of the Noldor though, he should be able to handle the beasties (including Durin's Bane).

As I had to point out to AKM last year, Eriador's MF did their jobs well last year. They're not flashy, they're not going to score a brace of goals, but the rangers work great together. The addition of NogWight won't hurt them either, since he's of like mind...the whole we're stronger together thing Elrond preaches.

Isildur is a noticeable step down from the Witch-King and that will probably hurt Eriador when they're up against tougher competition in the playoffs. Isildur's career is marked by mediocrity (-0.6). We're rather kind saying mediocre but last year really was his worst year, but even before that he was mediocre. He should improve under this team with the stronger mid-field and Glorfindel is top class, but his peak seems to be a few assists and 1 or 2 goals. Speaking of Glorfindel though, he's sort of comparable to Earendil, a well rounded attacking MF/FW...plus he's got an Arda Cup title when playing for Gondolin in 2010.

Misty Mts
FRIENDLIES:
-Imladris (D2-2)
-Barad Dur (L1-2)

Here's a team it appears no one in the media is giving much of a chance too, and we don't understand why...

Their defenses aren't as bad as they might appear in the friendlies. The sons of Elrond still bitter over their mother's capture and torture were clearly playing in a ramped-up revenge mood. And Barad-Dur is a quality offense. Now you're probably saying "wait a second...what about Wilderland and Erebor...both contain dragons!?" But aren't dragons cold-blooded? Anyone else seeing a match-up nightmare with Gwaihir the "Windlord" and Caradhras capable of blasting strong gusts of wind and ice, on the Misty Mts? Well...TTN is predicting one.

The bigger question will come on how many goals they'll be able to score. Probably not good enough to score on Eriador (but the same applies to Wilderland and Erebor). Durin's Bane was called the most over-rated player in 2009, but his game has improved since making the switch to FW. Durin's Bane mind is always on the attack, and it's definitely tough to contain the Balrog. However, when Durin's Bane is contained, it's always easy to frustrate him where he'll recklessly throw away possession. As a MF this is bad, because you've got to back track and play defense, this is less important as a FW and so he's really in the most suitable position.

Azog and Narvi are decent enough, but the rest of the MF is lacking. Seeing as the Misty Mts were not kept off the board in either of their friendlies (and that against a still tough Imladris defense, plus an improved Barad-dur defense) they shouldn't have problems getting chances against Erebor and Wilderland. Those will of course be the key games and as mentioned they already have the evil tactics to get Thorin sent off the field. Durin's Bane may be reckless, but Thorin's recklessness is more costly because he's a DF for Erebor.

Wilderland
FRIENDLIES:
-Dwarves Utd (D0-0)
-Isengard (W2-1)

The defense is not as strong as it appeared in the friendlies. It doesn't take much to keep Dwarves United off the scoreboard, and with Saruman directly calling Radagast a coward, Radagast was inspired to prove his meddle. Truth of the matter is though, from Gandalf's own words, Radagast doesn't have much courage and he'll need it if Wilderland hopes to stop Smaug and Nazgul #7. Then there's Durin's Bane who's just ruthless enough to send elves and armies of dwarves flee in fear (and even Gandalf nervous). The rest of the defense is entirely wooden and Oropher's shown reckless stupidity when his leadership comes under question.

There are many question marks in the mid-field...we'll just have to way and see what the first-born can do. They are prone to wander off the straight road though we'll see if that's applicable on the pitch. Having a Nazgul only ever helps a team, they're all around dependable players. But the wraith will be expected to lend its effort to the attack, which is clearly the strength of the team.

Scatha and Thranduil are reunited and they worked well together playing for Mirkwood back in 2008-09. Their WAR for those two seasons, Scatha +1.9, Thranduil +1.2. They'll have to get back to that old form playing together once again. That's more of questionmark we place on Thranduil, because of all the dragons, Scatha has consistantly performed the best.

Projected Standings:
1. Eriador
2. Misty Mountains
3. Erebor
4. Wilderland

GROUP F

Minas Tirith
FRIENDLIES:
-Erebor (L1-2)
-Gondor (D2-2)

AKM will have you believe that last year they were a team that only advanced to the playoffs because they played in a crummy group. Their group was weak, but the facts are also once in the playoffs...they went INTO Angband, and came out with a victory. Let's take a brief tour of our Arda Cup history and 1st round playoff games hosted by Angband:

2008. Fornost loses 0-2.
2009. Romenna loses 0-2 (and Morgoth wasn't even on that Angband roster, as he was playing for Valimar that year)
2010. Gelion loses 0-2.
2011. Tol Eressea loses 0-1. (Not even the mighty Valar Ulmo could go into Angband and beat Morgoth)

2012, was the first year a team went to Angband, for the 1st round playoff, and beat Morgoth's team...and that was Minas Tirith. The White City was not a fluke last year, nor the product of benefitting from a bad group. And they will not be an easy snack for any team in this group.

Having said all that, gearing up to play 1 match against superior talent is a lot different than trying to sustain that adrenaline and energy against 3 teams...all with superior talent. Plus they play a much different game than Angband. Tirion and Nargothrond will just plain wear down and out run your defenses. Tol Eressea plays a very similar style to Minas Tirith, but they just do a better job at it. So it's a cruel reality for us in the White City, Minas Tirith doesn't have talent to advance from this group...but don't underestimate them. Nor underestimate their ability to give an amazing single game performance that can shuffle the cards in this group and impact which 2 of the 3 others go through.

Nargothrond
FRIENDLIES:
-Armenelos (D3-3)
-Anfauglith (W2-1)

Nargothrond, by appearances, looks to be in better form this year than last. Even if their defenses will still leak big time and Orodreth is not a shut-down GK...WAR tells us he was still a better keeper than Nargothrond attempting to shuffle Beor and Barahir into the position.

It's all going to rest on how well can the FWs hold the ball in their opponents half, and keep up the pressure, because Nargothrond's own mid-field and defense won't be able to do much. This will be a brutal fight to see which 2 can make it out of this group. Nargothrond's style is better against Tirion's who appears to have switched to a more balanced game then their straight out offense when Miriel and Nerdanel were with the team. It's not a good style to play against The Sea or Minas Tirith...because they will defend, defend, defend,..defend with all 11 behind the ball...and defend some more...then hit you with a counter, which Nargothrond's defense will be completely incapable of stopping. So, it will depend on if Orodreth can get a few stops.

The Sea
FRIENDLIES:
-Valimar (W1-0)
-FC Valinor (D0-0)

The Sea's game is simple...they're not going to change it ever and it's a strategy that works fantastic in group rounds, but not extremely successful in the playoffs. We should clarify, not successful because of the way the current roster is built.

Bottomline with this team is, they will always have 11 players defending and it's going to frustrate offenses like no other defense can (I mean they quelched Arien's fire and then not even FC Valinor's forwards could put one in). And unlike Dwarves Utd, Tar Minastir is a much better, more proven forward, than Legolas. Tar Minastir is capable of scoring 2-3 goals a match (maybe not in this system, but point is, the chances he scores at least 1 goal in a game are very high.) He performs better in the group and tends to shrink in the playoffs, however.

Taking a look back at the make up of Vinyamar's 2010 team...you might ask, well how can Ulmo's style not be successful in the playoffs? They were silver-medalists! Yes, but they had Tuor, Penlod, Duilin, and Idril as well. All good at keeping possession but also scoring goals. And there's the problem with this Sea team, only Tar Minastir can be a reliable scorer. The rest of the midfield, great at keeping possession...can't turn that possession into goals.

Tirion
FRIENDLIES:
-Gondolin (W2-0)
-Angband (D1-1)

We are making the picks in this group with very little conviction or confidence...because as much as we look at Nargothrond and think they have a better style against Tirion...we look at Tirion and see their balanced approach is much better against The Sea and Minas Tirith. So, it's just going to be fascinating seeing how this all turns out.

Defensively we (yes) still love the pick up of Caranthir, and that should only benefit Amrod and Amras...who weren't ever able to lead defenses on their own, but should get along fine with Caranthir.

The real question for Tirion is, just how is Tirion going to be able to get the ball up to their FWs...consistantly. Without sacrificing their defensive effort by having to bring Caranthir up, or sacrificing their offense by moving Finwe back to the MF. Mahtan's got a powerful strike, but he's not a possession guy. And well the other mid-fielders are questionmarks. There's no doubt Finwe and Aredhel can score (and also hold the ball up to get Mahtan, Rumil and Caranthir - when necessary - involved), but we can see this being a problem for Tirion.


Projected Standings
1. The Sea
2. Nargothrond
3. Tirion
4. Minas Tirith

[Boromir88]

GROUP G

Angband
FRIENDLIES:
-Hithlum (D2-2)
-Tirion (D1-1)

Angband's got skilled players at key positions, so lets start with Carcharoth. Carcharoth's a solid goalie, the wolf had one terrible season (2010) when Thangorodrim was kept out of the playoffs. However, I attribute this to Thangorodrim's hyper-aggressive constant attack approach often left Carcharoth alone and vulnerable. The wolf will take bad angles and is prone to making poor decisions but its reaction and athleticism is great, and can make up for those poor decisions (most of the time). When protected by Morgoth's more defense-first scheme, the wolf performs much better (around 75% saves).

Moving to the defense, Morgoth is actually probably a better mid-fielder, but when he's had the mind to move to defense he's quality there too. His Balrog defender is just a classy defender, and model of consistency, accumulating a WAR of +2.9 over his 5 year span at the position. Uimuiyan is clearly the unknown, but the cat's quickness and agility should match up well against other quick FWs.

The Easterlings always play hard for Morgoth, but they are prone to making big (and quite costly) mistakes. The mid-field is going to struggle, because they'll have spurts of playing well and making sure passes get up to Telvildo and Ancalagon, but then they'll just have a bad turnover or foolish penalty...forcing Morgoth, the Balrog and Carcharoth to try to make up for the mistake. Which they are of course able to do, but not all the time.

Ancalagon and Telvildo are an interesting combo of power and speed which should really be a pain for a lot of defenses. Telvildo's more of a passer, but the cat can tunnel its way beneath defenders legs (and many have tried to protests that when catbeasts intentionally trip up defenders by running underneath a player, it should be called a foul) and get close range goals. Ancalagon, like Smaug is pretty much a goal-scorer only. Although the dragon's got a couple different ways to get them, tough to contain in the air but can also blast in long range power shots with its tail.

Angfauglith
FRIENDLIES:
-AC Beleriand (L1-2)
-Nargothrond (L1-2)

They lost to 1 title contender and 1 playoff quality team...so not awful, but there's something that just wasn't clicking with this team during the friendlies. Their defenses were facing 2 of the top attacks in the league this year, but still surrending 4 goals on Ungoliant and some Balrog defenders, and they won't face offenses that deadly in their group, but it's still telling us something isn't working with the way the team was built.

The MF is pretty weak, although they likely won't make any major gaffes like Angband's mid-field, are they good enough to work the ball through TIG's, Imladris' (and even Angband's MF) to their pair of star strikers? They'll have to if they want to advance, but that's the problem we see with this team.

Of course when Gothmog and Ecthelion do get the ball they're going to put up goals, but only 2 goals in 2 games for Angfauglith means they're not seeing enough of the ball because of a weak mid-field unable to give them enough chances.

Imladris
FRIENDLIES:
-Misty Mts (D2-2)
-Arnor (D1-1)

The competition they've played in the friendlies is not nearly the level their opponents played, so they've had 2 good results but it doesn't show they'll be able to contend with the 3 other teams in the group.

Varda is good enough to shut down the best scorer on any team, particularly the one's with evil hearts will flee from her bright, shining power, but she can't defend everyone by herself. And the other defenders are ok, but definitely beatable...particularly seeing they'll have to try to stop Ancalagon, Telvildo and Gothmog, Ecthelion, and then a bunch of wolves, vampires and wights. Maybe if they would just shout "Elbereth!" that will be enough to get into the heads of the baddies, but that seems to only work on the Nazgul.

The mid-field is more solid than Angband's and Angfauglith's, Arahael and Lindir are capable of feeding passes to Elladan and Elrohir, and scoring by themselves on occassion. The insane raving of Figwit fans seems to be on the minds of some, much to their annoyance, but Imladris is the displaced team in this group, going well away from their protected Vale and into hostile territory, so they likely won't get any crowd advantage (even though the Figwit fans are notoriously loud)

Elladan and Elrohir just aren't worth their caps. I mean their numbers are comparable to Tar-Miriel or Morwen, who are perfect when they're in a system as the 4th or 5th offensive option, but not as the attackers expected to carry an offense. Elladan and Elrohir will have to carry the load but it's a burden too big for them.

Tol-In-Gaurhoth
FRIENDLIES:
-Doriath (W3-0)
-Havens (W2-1)

If we hailed Angband as having great talent at key positions, TIGs talent looks even better. ShastaWolf back between the posts has been a solid keeper for the Isle of Wolves for several years running now. A pack of wolves in defense, phantomwolf one of the best assist-wolves in the game...then InzilWolf and Thuringwethil up front? Phew...where is the weakness?

It's going to be if this team is capable of not shooting themselves in the foot. Their friendly performance suggests they have been able to player smarter without losing any confidence in their own inate skill. I won't be a true believer (that is put them to win Group G) until I see it when the games matter more and pressure rises. I think they'll play with enough anger and vengeance from last year's disappointment (and missing the playoffs for the first time) to advance (and also be an extremely tough out in the playoffs)...but I just can't put them over Angband.

Arrr...this group is driving me crazy because TIG has it all to be a championship team this year, yet still might not make it out of their group if they revert to old habits.

Projected Standings:
1. Angband
2. Tol In Gaurhoth
3. Angfauglith
4. Imladris

GROUP H

Anduin
FRIENDLIES:
-Eriador (L0-1)
-Shire-Bree Utd (D1-1)

This is another group that's driving me crazy. Anduin appears to have everything to win this group easily, but going through our WAR numbers there are a lot of holes that can be exploited by the other teams in this group. And if they couldn't be Shire-Bree in the friendlies, then you can rightfully ask can they beat anyone in this group?

Let's start with defense, now Celeborn is a solid defender, and you can actually look to take him over Fram if you're so inclined. Fram's numbers as a defender are average where Celeborn has a little more experience and playing with Rivendell's defenses in 2008 and Lothlorien's in 2011 turned out to be the best Elven defenses (and therefore one of the top defenses in those respective years). Felarof had a good year in 2009, playing for Rohan but his numbers have steadily declines and they're even worse when he's not playing in his home environment. Leaving Minalcar as the weakest link and he's quite a weak link (-0.8 WAR, over 2 years).

Some may shout this is hometown player bias but the fact is, Boromir is in his best position. As an attacking MF Boromir II has had his best years, when he's been in offenses that look for Glorfindel, Aragorn, or Feanor to take up the scoring. When it's just Boromir he comes up way short, but he's done well in the MF when there's other viable options. (We'll make note that Haldir is flat out horrible in the position he's in (-2.2 WAR)...Leod is decent, primarily his good numbers come from one explosive performance in 2011, but taking out that single game he's pretty average).

The team's success will depend on if Grimbeorn and Eorl can get the job done. Eorl, like Felarof is a dynamite performer when he plays for Rohan. But his 1-season away from home (2011) he was a shell of himself and played with no heart. He'll have to find someway to play with the passion he has in Rohan, otherwise Anduin will be left behind in this group.

Arnor
FRIENDLIES:
-Barad-Dur (D0-0)
-Imladris (D1-1)

The low budget squad has still managed to put together a competitive team. 2 draws against teams with larger budgets and probably tougher competition than what they'll face in this group.

Arvedui at goal is decent, he's had some very good games going against Angband and the Valar, but also some stinkers. So his performances are quite varied, which means he's not championship quality, but he's good enough to make sure Arnor doesn't lose many matches.

Arnor just looks reliable and a safe pair of hands (or rather feet) up and down the roster. A mid-field that doesn't make mistakes with defenders like Elendil and Malbeth (both had a good year at that position with Westernesse in 2011). Then the Witch-King and Araphor up front? They're no pushovers, especially when it comes to late game heroics and comebacks.

Mordor
FRIENDLIES:
-Gondor (L1-3)
-Erebor (L0-1)

It appears, on the surface this looks like one of the lousiest teams in the tournament. A 2-goal loss to Gondor is bad, a 1-goal loss to Erebor is less shaming, but still a loss. Then you see 1 goal in 2 games, while giving up 4. I wouldn't count out this low budget team just yet either though.

Remember Mordor nearly advanced in (admittedly a weak Group H) last year. Had Barad-Dur not scored a late, and rather unlucky goal, Mordor would have advanced instead of Minas Tirith last year. So despite having a low budget last year too, this team knows how to compete.

Their success (or failure) will depend on the mid-field, it's actually got more playoff experience than Anduin and Rohan's mid-field, plus the Mouth supported by 2 of his Nazgul will definitely work in unison. Shelob's a fearsome presense as a FW (has been improved in that position than as a GK).

Is the defense good enough? That's going to be an uncertainty, but none of the teams in this group have been lighting up the scoreboard. (granted they played tough defenses, but so did Mordor. They allowed 3 against Gondor, but you'll also see inflated scoring in heated rivalries when the teams are amped up).

Rohan
FRIENDLIES:
-Isengard (W2-1)
-Dwarves Utd (L0-1)

And then where does all this leave Rohan? Because a 1 goal loss to Dwarves Utd is not bad when looking at the competitiveness they'll face in this group. And a 2-1 win over Isengard is a positive.

Theoden's stellar goal tending year was when he was protected by his pair of tireless horses and a pair of Rohanian royalty (plus being in a lousy offensive group featuring Taniquetil, The Shire, and Dorthonion...controversial color-analyst called those teams "Taniqantscore, Borethonion, and not even good enough to come up with a cheesy name Shirelings" that year.")

The defense is also questionable, because Windfola and Snowmane...not only are they not Felarof and Shadowfax, but they pick up way more cards than a lot of defenders. The defense and Theoden may be protected this year though by a ball-controlilng midfield that should work well together and be hard for the teams in this group to get through). King Dead and Aldor are stout defensive mid-fielders then you've got Eowyn, Brytta and Faramir in the attack who are all not not alien to scoring some goals.

It'll have to be those 3 though because Helm is out of position. Helm is more naturally a mid-fielder with a wickedly powerful shot. The "Hammerfoot" can put in some tremendous long distance rockets, but he doesn't have the skills to be a FW. His career in the FW position is 1 goal and like 5 yellow cards.

Projected Standings:
1. Arnor
2. Mordor
3. Anduin
4. Rohan

[Boromir88]

Round 1 Matches
-Boro88

We wouldn't be TTN if we didn't have our match predictions. Here's the Round 1 games, with our predictions:

GROUP A

1. Armenelos vs The Havens -

This is looking like a very even back-and-forth affair. The Havens likes to control the midfield, but that's a tough bill against this Numenorean squad which likes to do the same. The Havens still has enough weapons to trouble Armenelos, in the end though, the defense is not strong enough to stop them. *Armenelos wins 3-2


2. The Barrow-Downs vs Valimar -

Valimar will have an easy time with this one. After last year's ban on games being played in Valinor was lifted, Valimar will want to prove they are wise and gracious hosts, but also give their home fans some exciting football many couldn't witness last year. *Valimar wins 2-0.

GROUP B

1. Inter Beleriand vs Dwarves United -

This one is setting up to be a draw. Dwarves Utd's defense is too good to give up more than one goal, while Inter Beleriand has a lot of questionmarks on the defensive side of the ball (Luthien aside). The only question is willl this game be 0-0 or 1-1? We'll say *Draw 1-1.

2. AC Beleriand vs Gondolin -

AC Beleriand should be able to get whatever they want with Rog and Gondolin's defense. Will this be a blowout, or does Gondolin show some offensive spirit too? *AC Beleriand wins 3-1.

GROUP C

1. Hithlum vs Real Valinor -

A high-scoring slugfest for the ages (and a defensive nightmare if you're the coaches). This could be a semi final battle of these teams weren't in the same group, but it's also great having a matchup like this early on. *Draw 3-3.

2. Shire-Bree United vs Doriath -

If the first match ends in a tie than the Halflings will at least enjoy a few days at the top of the group..befre Hithlum and Real Valinor come to put them in their proper place. *Shire-Bree wins 1-0.

GROUP D

1. Isengard vs FC Valinor -

Saruman would not have been happy with FC Valinor in their group, but at least they get the hardest one out of the way early and then have the last 2 rounds with better chances against Barad-Dur and Gondor. *FC Valinor wins 3-0

2. Barad-Dur vs Gondor -

This will more than likely end in a draw. We don't like picking draws in rivalry games, since usually there is extra inspiration to eliminate your rivals. But with both teams looking evenly matched, and with it being a game in round 1, neither will want to play too risky and start with a loss. *Draw 2-2.

GROUP E

1. Eriador vs Misty Mts -

We'll see if the Misty Mountains can keep this one close. Eriador won't score many goals, but their defense will allow even less. If this is a 1-goal loss, then we really start liking the risk in taking Misty Mts to advance...if anything more than well it becomes a tough climb. *Eriador wins 1-0.

2. Erebor vs Wilderland -

Even with dragon slayers on their team, Wilderland's going to be tough for this Erebor defense to keep off the board. With that being said Erebor's trio of forwards should also have their way with Wilderland's defense. Beorn will be the bigger reason Erebor wins though. *Erebor wins 2-1.

GROUP F

1. Nargothrond vs Minas Tirith -

Closer than the experts think. As our Group F preview explained, Minas Tirith plays a game that can give Nargothrond's defense fits. Especially since statistically, you'll see Nargothrond dominating possession, total shots, shots on target, but the scoreline won't reflect Nargothrond's dominance. *Nargothrond wins 3-2.

2. Tirion vs The Sea -

This is one of the marquee games of round 1. It's hard to see Tirion being kept off the scoreboard, but if any defense is capable of that it's Ulmo's. They already kept Arien scoreless in the friendlies, then Celegorm and Curufin as well. But Tirion's got just enough for a late equalizer. *Draw 1-1.

GROUP G

1. Angfauglith vs Imladris -

Angfauglith had a disappointing performance in the friendlies, but holding AC Beleriand and Nargothrond to 2 goals each is still pretty impressive. Imladris won't score...it'll be up to Gothmog and Ecthelion though to work some flashing teamwork and get a goal against Varda's Imladris. *Angfauglith wins 1-0.

2. Angband vs Tol-In-Gaurhoth -

Another marquee match. Angband usually has a difficult time being ready to go in round 1. So has TIG, for that matter, but they look to be in much sharper form already. The wolves will be playing aggressive and hard to show off in front of Morgoth...but Carcharoth will also be wanting to show off to old wolf buddies playing for TIG. We almost called this a 2-2 draw, but will say...*Angband wins 2-1.

GROUP H

1. Mordor vs Rohan -

This will be another game I'm interested in seeing. Now it may not suit the fancy and attraction of majestic Valar, or powerful Noldor, or the regal Numenoreans but I feel Mordor's low payroll will grab some attention from fans. *Mordor wins 2-1.

2. Anduin vs Arnor -

It comes down to whether the best team on paper can beat the grizzled team of veterans from the North. Anduin's got some better players, but the better and now re-unified kingdom of men will play better as a unit. *Draw 2-2.

[Nogrod]

Group E

The Arkenstone Arena, Erebor


First of all the AKM wishes to make sincere apologies, mainly to the Erebor Craftsmen Union, for suggesting that the dwarves would have been greedy to cash in most of the nice revenue they made last year with Mr. Moneybags’ happy acceptance. But seeing the renovated stadium inside the Lonely Mountain just dazzles the wiever – and it is easy to see immediately that it has not been a cheap venture to build something like that.

Happily the Erebor Craftsmen Union won last year by themselves about 6 million, and if you added what they “saved” by cutting the costs this year, around 5 mil (on their part of the lowered budget), then you get 11 million for investment in total just for the new arena – only from the dwarven investment house. Judging by the commercial-banners flying around the field itself one could notice that the Celduin Corporation (Dale-based group of investors) and Moneybags Monetary Management (investment house residing in Laketown) had been involved in the renovations with considerable sums as well.

So the King under the Mountain was rebuilding the "Stadium under the Mountain" and renaming it into the "Arkenstone Arena" for the greater glory of Erebor – but as wise bussines-dwarf had made it as safe an investment possible using the money pouring in from the football-related investment groups. That means, that if the kingdom of Erebor itself invested, let’s say five million, they got a twenty million renovation for five million investment of their own.

Dwarves are great engineers, but they seem to have sense for bussiness as well.

From the skills and tradition of engineering seems to follow an eye for overall beauty and proportion as well as awe-inspiring sense for imagery and detail. And the jaw-dripping creativity.

The centerpiece of the stadium is a huge “replica” of the Arkenstone itself – only some hundred times bigger from the original – hanging from the center of the roof, from the focal point of the four arches climbing towards it from the corners of the arena. With an ingenious system of narrow tunnels and mirrors the dwarven engineers have been able to direct the light from outside in hundreds of beams that are focused on the “Arkenstone” – which then spreads the light all over the arena in the weird but beautiful set of different shades of light from pure white, silmaril, silver and gold to hints of all emerald, turqoise, ruby and topaz.

And if that was not already breath-taking, the “Arkenstone” turns slowly around it’s axis making the general mood of the lightning to change all the time, but slowly enough that it isn’t disturbing (like the mirrored Disco-balls are) but rather creating a mood of intense expectation – and tension.

What is even more remarkable is their system for late-games when there is not enough sunlight from outside to light the "Arkenstone". Burning different metals like natrium and magnesium added with more standard sources of light like burning coal, wood, oil and different gases in their light-tunnels and focusing them to the “Arkenstone” they are able to produce even more intense lightning fit for stronger feelings in comparison to the quite mellow shades of light during daytime.

All that engineering is of course out of the sight of a spectator and all s/he can see is the marvellous light reflecting and being distributed by the huge “Arkenstone” hanging from the ceiling.

Some players had complained about Erebor’s “plastic pitch” after last year’s tournament – and the hosts had accepted the criticism as valid. Sadly without the magic of the Ainur – or elves having close relations to them – there was no way the dwarves could make grass grow under the mountain (of which they envy Menegroth). But they had put their brightest engineers to the task and had produced a revolutionary artificial turf made from synthetic materials created in their labs with infills of sand and rubber.

The players have been surprisingly pleased with it if one considers how fake-grass is generally despised. Even those who disliked it openly held it to be superior to any “Astro Turf” they had played on before. But the spectator is even more taken by it’s slightly emerald-green and ruby-red colour-combination which makes the whole game look somewhat different – and has an impact on the general athmosphere in the closed space of the Arkenstone Arena – even if you could still say it is green.


Group C

Menegroth Stadium, Doriath


A lot of ink has been spilled – as well as I’s and 0’s run through electric data-systems – to hail the great Stadium of Menegroth which has seen a lot of games during it’s history – including some memorable ones from Arda Cup as well; the 2008 finals as probably the most unforgettable event played there ever.

The stadium was built into Menegroth already when the Thousand Caves were given birth, hewn from the rock by the toughest dwarven and elven builders and supervised by the most learned and crafted masters of both races – only to be decorated into a huge single piece of art by the greatest artits of their time.

The AKM called Menegroth “the fairest dwelling of any king that has ever been east of the sea” and sees no reason to change its verdict a pitifully short five years later. And the exquisitiveness of the place still holds: the tickets cost a lot more than to many other venues – you still get the excellent wine and luxurious snacks for free as much as you want by showing the ticket. That actually makes the ticket worth a lot more than they are, but doesn’t in turn help the poorer football fans who are totally outpriced from any games played in Menegroth.

But even with the high prices it has never been a problem for the Doriath hosts to fill the stadium up to the last bench in the upper-rows. The real fans save money for a year or a few to experience just one evening’s games in there – and feel it is worth it.

And the AKM agrees: if you haven’t experienced Menegroth and a game in it’s Stadium you’ve not lived. Drinking the best wines around the fountains of silver and having a culinary piece of art as a snack beside the marble basins with all the fine folks and celebrities around, surrounded by the statues and woven hangings by the greatest artists from the time immemorial just sends you into a different plane of existence. Many people would feel they’re in heaven for just that – but then there are the games as well!

And the stadium is just marvellous. The ancient dwarven and elven craftsmanship is seen from the minutest detail (like the unique etchings on every seat, or the functional perfection and beauty of even the doorknobs to the lavatories) to the general athmosphere (like the acoustic panels which cut the highest pitches that normally make your ears suffer, and an add to the bass making even lesser roar of the crowds feel as a tremble in your guts). But that’s not all there is.

The field, or pitch, itself is a miracle. A grass-field blossoming a deep but light green, like the green of spring just awakening yet strong and enchanting, deep under the rock! It feels, well plain otherworldly.

Neither Thingol nor Melian have been willing to disclose the secret of it but it is easy to see Melian has something to do with that.

Be that as it is, the players love to play in Menegroth because they feel they get energy from the grass under their feet. Although some of the more poetic souls sometimes complain they have lapses of concentration to the game because it is so beautiful all around. That is of course the reverse with some evil players whom the athmosphere makes too annoyed and thusly distracts them in the worst case. So in the end the latter effect is also equal.

[the phantom]

Arda Cup Football Returns to the Blessed Realm
Philip McPhantom, MESPN News

There's so much football tradition in Valinor- so many great players, venues, and of course fans. What a shame it was that a ban had to be instituted last season, during which no Arda Cup games were played in Valinor.

But there was a good reason for the ban to be instituted- the mistreatment of foreign fans. Various Valinor security task forces were disbanded and investigated, but when brought to trial no one was ultimately held responsible. Higher-ups insisted that their orders were interpreted wrongly, or at the least carried out with too much enthusiasm. The boots on the ground and wings in the air, however, insisted they were acting appropriately given the information they had received from their superiors and the reactions of the would-be visitors.

The sinking of Dwarf-bearing ships bound for the Blessed Realm was determined to have been an accident. Conspiracy theories still abound, but the Dwarves were mollified for the most part following a very thorough investigation led by Ulmo. The Vala of the Sea apologized to the Dwarves and promised them that from then on he would have a small task force dedicated to ensuring the safety of all Arda-Cup related sea voyages, provided the ships worked with him on departure dates and destination.

But Orcs, Trolls, and other creatures of the night remain angry to this day, saying that the ban wasn't a serious enough punishment. "Here they are one year later, forgiven as if nothing happened," said Morgoth in an interview last month. "Yeah, yeah, they lost some revenue and their fans didn't get to watch football live, but there were deaths. Deaths! How could no one have been imprisoned?"

The most serious occurrence was of course the deaths of a couple dragons and eagles of Thorondor after an intense aerial battle. Morgoth and the families of the dragons insisted that the dragons had tickets and were flying into Valinor to give support, but they were denied entry and attacked by a squadron of eagles.

The eagles involved in the attack, however, state that the dragons were using the games as cover to launch a damaging attack upon Valinor, and that they were ordered to intercept them, discover if they had tickets in claw, and then escort them to a secure area to await the games (if in fact they had tickets). The eagles say that the dragons opened hostilities before they had even communicated their orders to them.

The surviving dragons insist that this is not true, but say that the eagles swooped on them aggressively and shrieked at them and did not announce any sort of diplomatic mission. The eagles fired back that they had attempted to fly up beside the dragons initially, but that the dragons had immediately dropped in elevation and rolled onto their backs in midair, baring their claws and teeth in a clearly hostile way.

There was a lot of back and forth, but in the end it was ruled that the entire thing was an unfortunate misunderstanding. The dragons were faulted for their readiness to behave in a hostile manner, and the eagles were faulted for being too quick to give up on the diplomatic portion of their mission.

Thus in the end it was decided that strict punishments might do more harm than good, and entrench both sides. Rather Eru insisted on a break from hosting, and that the in-between time would be used to reevaluate their methods and attitudes. He also insisted that various eagles and dragons fly together, so that they could perhaps come to appreciate their brothers in the air and not see them as merely a mortal enemy. The sessions were private and no one was allowed to speak to the public about them, but as no further deaths occurred it is hoped that this endeavor was somewhat successful.

But even if attempts are being made to change the culture that exists, the Cup Committee must have assumed it would be too much to ask if in the first year back they sent a team that would bring a lot of Orc or Dragon fans behind them. Instead it was Armenelos, The Havens, and The Barrow-Downs that was due to visit, and it appeared things might go off without a hitch.

The Numenoreans could be a bit proud, and small groups of them (probably drunk) made disparaging remarks towards their hosts- joking that the Valar wanted to sink their ships, but couldn't because Numenoreans are far too good at sailing. But the Elves of the various havens and most of the Numenoreans have been excellent guests, and the Valinoreans have treated them quite well.

The Barrow-Downs on the other hand- their Wight fans look to be the biggest threat to tranquility, but they have yet to descend upon the Blessed Realm. The new liberal reforms have the customs officials and such under orders to allow any and all Wights in to support their team. Many are obviously uncomfortable with the orders, but say they will comply with them in an effort to show that they are serious about preventing bad feelings and additional tragedy.

To make their citizens feel more secure, Manwe announced a law to prohibit weapons from being within a block of the arena, and a law that would strictly punish anyone guilty of fighting within the arena. Some greeted the new laws as positive steps towards creating a safe environment, but others pointed out that it was already illegal to have a naked blade within the arena. "You could have a weapon, but it had to be secured and sheathed," says Tulkas. "But now everyone has to leave them at home, so if some unruly Wights sneak in knives and go on a rampage, we'll be defenseless."

When informed of Tulkas' sentiment, Manwe said: "The Wights will be a miniscule minority in a huge arena. Surely we can overcome them even without swords, and surely they will be aware of this." But the next day Tulkas fired back: "No, we can't stop them, because your last law prohibited fighting in the arena. If we grapple with them, we'll be guilty of breaking the law, because the law doesn't have any provisions for fighting even if it is to defend life. Those laws were passed just to make people feel like there was progress. Never mind how ineffective and counter-productive they are."

Manwe has not yet given an official response to Tulkas' most recent comment.

[the phantom]

Amon Hen Coliseum to Host Group H
Philip McPhantom, MESPN News

All the peoples of Arda were awed by the 2010 debut of the Amon Hen Coliseum, built in secret by the Gondor Arda Cup Host Committee in return for a promise of hosting the semis and finals two consecutive years, with options to return to the site before the normal mandatory gap between hosting Arda Cup finals.

There is no question that The Coliseum is the largest venue in all of Arda, thanks largely to the magic of Amon Hen, the “hill of seeing”, which allows the stadium to climb far higher than others so long as it flows up the side of Amon Hen, which was found to amplify the natural visionary capabilities of anyone upon it, and more so as one nears the pinnacle of the hill.

Because of this the stadium appears extremely lopsided. The east quarter of the stadium overlooks the great falls of Rauros and seats around 25,000, while the north quarter hugs the shores of the lake and seats slightly more. But as the stadium runs to the south-southwest up the slopes of Amon Hen, the seats just pile higher and higher, and after another new addition this past offseason the total seating for the stadium is now in the neighborhood of 200,000!

But believe it or not the whopping size of the monstrous arena is not the number one thing that typically arrests the attention of fans and critics, but rather it is the architecture. The stadium is a tribute to the history of football in Arda, featuring sections which expertly capture the architecture, décor, and adornments of various famous stadiums from elsewhere in Arda. Any walkway, restroom, eatery, and entrance in a given section also mirrors the style, making visitors feel as if they were actually in a different stadium.

The initial construction featured sections from Valimar, Utumno, Tirion, Angband, Gondolin, Doriath, Numenor, Mordor, Mirkwood, and Rohan, while Moria and The Shire were added in 2011. In 2012 teams of Noldor and Teleri put in hard work to reproduce a piece of Alqualonde's arena, and workers from Nargothrond successfully mimicked Finrod's famous deep-delved stadium.

This past off-season a Gundabad section was added. The locals were concerned that all the orc crews brought in for the consultations and construction might run amok, but the Coliseum Construction Committee (CCC) was careful about which orcs they allowed, how many at once, and where they were lodged, thus problems were for the most part averted.

When stadium planners were asked last month if there were new additions in the works, they answered: "Yes, definitely. We've been eying a Lothlorien section for a while now and we've already began preliminary talks and negotiations. There's also a handful of other regional flavors we're debating in sub-committee."

But the stadium isn’t the only thing that's been expanding in recent years- there is also the infrastructure. There are quite a few inns, pubs, and rentable homes in a rather new town a short distance west of the stadium along the shores of the great lake, and a good number of cabins farther along, or in the woods higher up on the slopes of the surrounding hills. It was the same the last few years, only this year there are more of them than ever, as well as a growing number of permanent residents now that Gondor had opened the area to settlement. There is also a good deal of boating on the lake, and the marinas to accommodate it. A bit farther up the lake there are several ski lodges. Now is not the time for snow obviously, but the lodges are still open to host guests and show off their facilities and runs, in hopes that visitors will return for a visit in the winter.

The docks just a bit downstream from the foot of the falls of Rauros are built to accommodate a large quantity of ships, and an ingenious series of hydro-powered lifts can transport travelers up to lake-level from the bottom of the falls- there are four lift paths in all, thus waiting times aren't bad. Additionally, two winding hiking trails leave the docks and wrap up and around the west side of Amon Hen, so those feeling like getting a bit of exercise (or wishing to skip the small lift fee) can take the scenic route (though the lifts climbing the cliffs so close to the falls are awfully scenic themselves). All in all the CCC has done quite a bit to ensure that Amon Hen Coliseum would be a huge hit with anyone lucky enough to visit.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The origin of football in Arda is a much-debated topic among historians. There were about as many theories as there were scholars. Marnen, lead sports editor of the broadsheet Arda, believed that the sport was conceived by the Ainur even before the Ainulindalë, while Iorithil, editor-in-chief of Quenta Noldorin Sport, pointed out that the Quendi of Cuiviénen were the first to codify the rules of football. Grishbukh, Professor Emeritus of Orc Kinetics at the Utumno University, opined that the Orcs were the first to invent the sport, pointing out that the oldest known football pitch was found just outside the gates of Angband.

Football’s origins might be a hotbed of conflicting theories, but there was no debate as to the very first international game—that is, a game between two different peoples. While the Eldar were being transported by Ulmo aboard what was now Tol Eressëa, a game took place between a team of Eldar and the Maiar of Ulmo, a game that ended in a 0-0 draw. To commemorate the event, the Teleri later built a stadium around the pitch where the game was played, a stadium simply called the Tol Eressëa Stadium. Throughout the ages it has been renovated and expanded; now it boasted a capacity of 80 000, as well as the necessities of a modern football arena—VIP seats, floodlighting from special lamps designed by Varda, TV studios, and a press conference room.

After Eru’s decree last year regarding the ban of games on Valinor, Ulmo considered a way to circumvent the ban. If games cannot come to the Blessed Realm, then perhaps a part of the Blessed Realm can come to the games. Consulting with the Elves of Avallónë, he decided to return the island in the bay of Eldamar to its original state. A special team of Maiar (those not playing for the Sea) would move the island from off the coast of Aman, bringing with it a contingent of FC Valinor fans, whose team would play in Dol Amroth.

Their first stop: the port of Pelargir in Gondor.

The sight of the island churning slowly up the Anduin was something to behold. Thousands flocked from the hinterlands of Lebennin and Harondor, even some from Ithilien, to witness the island that had once basked in the light of the Two Trees make its way slowly to the great haven of Gondor. The local stadium Pelargir Park would also be used for the first matchday, playing host to Minas Tirith and Nargothrond. But surely, the hearts of locals would be torn—support the home team, or watch the match between the Sea and Tirion, a game featuring Númenóreans, the ancient Eldar, and the mythical Ainur, a game in a stadium that most Gondorians have never seen before, and, perhaps, would never have a chance to see again.

Football’s coming home, the banner over Tol Eressëa Mobile Stadium reads. For many citizens of Gondor, they might choose to forsake home just to witness history.

Group F Main Host: Tol Eressëa Mobile Stadium (Capacity: 80 000)
Tirion @ The Sea

Matchday 1 Co-Host: Pelargir Park (Capacity: 55 000)
Nargothrond @ Minas Tirith

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Gondolin. The Hidden Rock. The city on a hill, founded in memory of Tirion-upon-Túna. The most enduring fortress of the Noldor in Beleriand. Winner of the 2010 Arda Cup. One of the powers of football in Arda

The Gondolindrim have long been isolated from the rest of Beleriand, and they have turned to many things to distract them from the rumours of trouble in the world at large. Some have turned to music, some to arts and crafts, but many have turned to sports, most especially football, both as players and as spectators. Almost every young Elf in Gondolin has once played in a youth football team; some have gone on to become senior players in the various local clubs, the biggest of which are AC Gondolin and Inter Gondolin (both of which play in the regional Northwest League). And a few have gone on to become players of great renown for other teams: Glorfindel of Eriador, Turgon of Inter Beleriand, and Ecthelion of Anfauglith have once played for Gondolin in both the youth and the senior levels, and brothers Huor and Húrin, both of Hithlum, have once been loaned to Gondolin as youth players.

Few other cities can boast of such a vast talent base relative to its size. Nargothrond have gone no closer to the cup than the first knockout round. Doriath, a kingdom many times larger than Gondolin, required the services of Túrin, Beren, and Huan to secure the cup. And Angband, for all their power and wealth, have never once played in an Arda Cup final.

Gondolin boast three arenas that fall under the AFA’s stadium category A—stadiums with capacities greater than 30 000, excellent pitch conditions, and a sizeable media area for broadcast teams and press conferences. The oldest one, Ondolindë Stadium in city centre of Gondolin, is a multi-purpose stadium currently being converted into a pure footballing arena. The Rock of the Music of the Water, as it’s also known, has been used during the 2008 and 2009 editions of the Arda Cup, but has recently been supplanted by the bigger and more modern Stadium on the Rock, sitting on the edge of a cliff above the plains of Tumladen. Boasting a capacity of 85 000, it hosted last year’s quarterfinal ties between Real Valinor and Rohan, as well as AC Beleriand and Shire-Bree United. And this year it will host five group games (the second game of the last group stage matchday will be played at the nearby Tumladen Park, the third category A stadium in the city.)

Cornflower blue banners were flown upon the gleaming white walls of the Stadium on the Rock, commemorating the return of the city’s daughter, Idril Celebrindal, to the home team. Also returning home (but playing for a different team) is their king Turgon, goalkeeper for Inter Beleriand. Most of Fëanor’s AC Beleriand squad were also familiar with the stadium, having secured their advance to the semifinal within its walls. The only newcomers then were the Dwarves United team; Aulë, Celebrimbor, Galadriel, and the dwarves of Nogrod and Belegost have long expressed their desire to see Gondolin for themselves, and the Middle-earth dwarves and Legolas were happy to be playing in a historic city.

Group B Main Host: Stadium on the Rock (Capacity: 85 000)
17:00 WBT Inter Beleriand - Dwarves United
20:00 WBT AC Beleriand - Gondolin

*Western Beleriand time

[Nogrod]

On the eve of the first round of the Arda Cup 2013 group-phase games the Lonely Mountain and it’s surrounding areas were buzzing with folk from near and far – and the football tourists filled the bookings of each and every hotel, hostel, guesthouse, motel, inn, B&B and camping site in both Dale and Esgaroth as well. And nobody was able to keep track of the irregular campers over the wastelands around the mountain - but everyone could see the spread of lights during the nights over the plains all around Erebor.

The Arkenstone Arena took in around 70 000 spectators but even if from the tickets a little over half went to locals the estimates had the number of visitors to the area everything from even to double that. A reasonable quess would be between 50 000 and 100 000 visitors.

According to the official AFA statistics based on the ticket-sales the following races and creatures had bough tickets to the games at Erebor, in alphabetical order: Balrogs, Beornings, Crebain & Crows, Dragons, Dúnedain, Dwarves, Eagles, Elves (Noldor, Silvan, Teléri), Ents, Goblins, Humans, Maiar, Nazgûl, Orcs, Spiders, Trolls, Trushes, Wargs, Wights, Wizards and Wolves.

There was also a moment of astonishment when a Haradian ship anchored to the Esgaroth docks a few days before the games full of Haradrim football-fans with their bright-coloured gear, wuwuzelas and a huge (and alive) mascot-tyger. It turned out they had been sold wrong tickets. But being good sports they decided to stay – well they had no chance of catching their intended group D matches anyway – and gave a nice colour (if not that nice a sound) to the first round of games, seemingly enjoying their exotic northern-experience to the fullest.

Now it is a great feature of interardan sports that with the players in the teams mixing also the supporters learn to mix together. That must have been something foreseen by Eru himself when he let the Arda Cup take seed in the hearts of the differents creatures around Arda.

And that spirit was probably most clearly exhibited at the Lonely Mountain the night before the first games when from the camping-ground’s fireplace you could find a warg, an ent, a Nazgûl and a wizard raising a glass for an elf’s success (for Thranduil to score heavily) and to their mutual friendship supporting the Wilderland team – or seeing the great eagles and dragons cheering loudly together with the dwarves in a Dale pub where a TV-report recapitulates Bard’s and Beorn’s highlights from the last year’s Cup.

Or well, which the AKM’s reporter found the most exhilarating; finding a small group of the Haradrim, Laketowners, northern Dúnedain, Rivendell elves, old Noldor of the West and a few Wights from the dock-area of Esgaroth discussing enthusiastically about different flutes and flute-playing techniques and their emotional effects while sharing drinks and barbecuing under the rising moon.

To be honest it has to be said there was the dark side as well. The number of homicides (and all the “other-cides”), assaults, mobbings, fights, robberies, theft, general offences, insults and every kind of grievance from too much noise and too much litter to strange smells and high prices at the groceries multiplied. But had it been a random-collection of different kind of creatures suddenly coming together with such numbers anywhere else but around Arda Cup it would probably have been a disaster.

In the press conference on the eve of the first games the spokespersons of all the teams participating appealed for peace and love and enjoyment of the games, and the Erebor police-force informed they had gotten strong reinforcements from Nogrod, Iron Hills and Moria to go after regular thieves, pickpockets and those willing to exploit the gathering of crowds.

Everyone knew there was no messing with the dwarven officials and so most everything was going orderly a day before the games.


First games will be held at the Arkenstone Arena, Erebor.

4pm. Eriador vs. Misty Mountains (daylight game)
7pm. Erebor vs. Wilderland (artificial-light game)


The thrill and excitement!

[Nogrod]

Menegroth is Menegroth:exquisite, lavish, exuberant… and also beautiful, uplifting and hallowed. Unless you are from Valinor when the first part of the list doesn’t apply, or from the most backwards recesses of Hithlum or Breeland when the latter doesn’t. But to most fans gathering for games of group C of the Arda Cup 2013 it was both – and even more. To many it was the fulfilment of years of savings and a dream come true.

Overall football is a democratic sport in as the stadiums hold reasonably big crowds and the tickets are very much affordable. But with some teams and some venues it is different. And Menegroth Stadium, or “the Cave” of Doriath is one of them. Despite it’s nickname there is nothing prosaic, lowbrow or underground in it culturally. It is as far from real punk as Green Day has ever been.

But if you can afford the tickets – or are enthusiastic enough to save for them – well it is a footballing heaven and a multi-sensuous experience, well a kind of gesamtskunstwerk one might admire even if his tastes were different. It is one of the greatest venues football has ever been been played and one of the most controversial, just because of all that.

This year the lifting of the Girdle of Melian has brought in to the Thousand Caves a host of visitors from the great houses of Bëor and Haleth and other early tribes of men. A decently large following has also come after the team Shire-Bree, even if it is times smaller the one of the early men. A few random football fanatics from all over Arda have also been buying tickets according to the AFA stats, ranging from singular easterling lords with their entourages to bands of enthusiastic Númenorean Elwing- and Dior-fans.

A few Balrogs and Nazgûls were also allowed to enter as guests, but they needed to pay a ransom aforehead – which would be returned to them if they behaved.

The greatest band of visitors were in no need of Melian opening the girdle as it only bans persons lesser than her to enter. Led by Tulkas and the other Valar of team Real Valinor the great host of Westerners; Valar, Maiar and Elves across-the-sea came in an exuberant parade filling the spectators on the road with awe and hallow.

Those men, hobbits and common elves of the ME who knew history enough to understand who they were drinking the exquisite wines and eating extravagant pastries for free with inside Menegroth were cherishing the moment as the highlight of their lives – less educated ones were just struck with the grace and splendour of the Westerners – and would tell the story to their granchildren as well.

The Breelanders soon learned they had been reserved the part of the statists – as long as the general attitude of the media and the other spectators went. Theirs would be the team everyone just needed to win to have better chance of qualifying. And soon they started to feel themselves looked down upon in general – even if only a few of them were hobbits.

The early houses of men and the elves had cordial relationships – as always – but there was some chill in the air as team Hithlum was fighting for the qualification with some seriousness, but the hosts were having the same mind-set. And Real Valinor sure looked intimidating to both of them.

On top of that the visitors from the Undying Lands acted annoyingly self-confident in the eyes of all the Middle-Earthers only adding to the tension underneath the polite and amiable behaviour everyone kept up.

Most fans gathering into the Thousand Caves were only too aware of the fact that this was one of the groups of death this year. But as all the major publicity continued around Real Valinor, Hithlum and Doriath, the Shire-Bree fans became even more jumpy: so when it was reported that Gandalf had met Nienna and fallen to his knees to salute her many were ready to believe the games were pre-arranged.

But the group-lottery had made most of the crowds looking after other things than Gandalf's bows.

First matches will be played at the “The Cave” aka. Menegroth Stadium, Doriath.

6pm. Hithlum vs. Real Valinor
9pm. Doriath vs. Shire-Bree United

The homecrowds sure wait for the “Night-match”, but all the footballing-world will look forwards to the afternoon game!

[Boromir88]

Group D @ Dol Amroth

The realm of Gondor launched another project 3 years ago with the construction of a new stadium. Holding some of the grandest and largest stadiums already in Middle-earth, it was never a surprise the Stadia Anor in Minas Tirith, or Amon Hen hosted important games in many of the previous Arda Cup tournaments. The lords of Dol Amroth didn't want to miss out and so they came up with the finances to build a new stadium. Seaside Financial Field.

The naming of the new stadium caught the eye of some paying careful attention to the story. Seaside Financial is a large elven ship investment firm. They invest in ship-builders and sell traveler's insurance to anyone departing West, thus it mostly benefits elven blood. The citizens of Dol Amroth had believed the money from the new stadium would stay at home, and Dol Amroth would benefit. But many had wondered what price did Seaside Financial pay to get their name on the stadium, and how much profit would be shipped overseas.

Whatever the case, it is a beautiful new stadium overlooking the Bay of Belfalas. It's not the largest in Gondor, but it's comfortable and built well that will assure every fan a good experience. A max capacity of 70,000 can sit (or stand) in Seaside Financial Field.

It is also one of the brightest stadiums ever built and that was probably done on purpose to benefit Mannish and Elven teams. The sun always seems to be shining brightly in Dol Amroth and the glimmer off the sea and white walls of the stadium, will surely give orc and dwarven supporters fits. Group D will have Barad-Dur, FC Valinor, Isengard, and Gondor.

So, FC Valinor and Gondor fans should be quite comfortable and enthusiastic about watching games in a brand new stadium. Gondor had hoped to get a nice home-friendly advantage, but with Sauron in the group, his deep pockets are always buying up tickets for supporters of his team. Also, since he has money tied up in Isengard, it wouldn't be surprising if he's purchased fans that would traditionally support Isengard. Although, the bright and glittering stadium (also located near the sea, as one can actually gain access to the sea via a waterpark in the stadium. The waterpark has several rides and restaurants housed on boats, offering local maritime cuisine from the bay, while fans can still watch the game on the ships) will also temper the large orcish crowd arriving at Dol Amroth the last several days.

Main Host: Seaside Financial Field @ Dol Amroth
Secondary Host: Pelargir Park

Round 1 First-Kick times:
Isengard vs. FC Valinor - 2pm
Barad-Dur vs. Gondor - 5pm

[Boromir88]

GROUP G @ Anfauglith

For the first two rounds games in Group G will be played at Anfauglith's Coliseum. With the final round matches being played concurrently, one game will be played in nearby Tol-in-Gaurhoth stadium, or "The Den."

Both locations are chilling and unlivable for any normal person, but for Angband, Tol-in-Gaurhoth, and Angfauglith they should be feeling right at home and all get strong crowd support. The wounded seal in shark-infested waters then is Imladris. Varda won't ever be unnerved, but is she powerful enough to instill strength and courage in the rest of her teammates, and the few Imladris fans insane enough to make the journey?

Built in the midst of great (and sorrowful) battles many ages ago, Anfauglith Coliseum will remind spectators of the large gladitorial arenas. It's a simple construction, just a tall large oval shape, of light-colored sandstone. And the arena can hold 100,000 when it hosted championship matches ages ago. Like most gladitorial arenas, the designers wanted attention to be on the teams playing on the field, not on grand statues, memorials, or cheap stadium thrills. So, Anfauglith Coliseum is pretty bare with just the stadium walls and a sickly looking yellow-brown grass field. This will typically be hard on the eyes of spectators, when the sun is out, but with an evening and night-time start to the matches (plus the quality of 3 nearby teams playing in Group G) there will be throngs of men and easterlings, orcs and balrogs, wolves and wights, and swarms of cats watching their favorite teams fight it out for 2 spots.


Main Host: Anfauglith Coliseum
Secondary Host: Tol-in-Gaurhoth Stadium "The Den"

Round 1 First-Kick times:
Angfauglith vs. Imladris- 6pm
Angband vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth - 9pm

[Boromir88]

GROUP D @ Dol Amroth

The 2013 Arda Cup was finally ready to kick off. Up first was the Group D matchup between FC Valinor and Isengard. FC Valinor come in as strong favorites to contend for the cup this year, and were expected to sweep their group without breaking a sweat, against 3 low budget Middle-earth squads. Although, expectations are quite different from performance when the real games begin.

In the pre-game conference, Saruman was in confident spirits despite what many in the media were calling Isengard as the first sacrificial lamb to FC Valinor's sublime skill. Saruman feels the side he put together this year is a strong one, and will be able to handle the "weak and idle" team from the West. Several even left convinced Isengard would not only win their group but could win the whole tournament.

---

But when the game began under the sweltering afternoon sun, the spell Saruman placed on the media during the pre-game conference was broken. And even though it took over 30 minutes before FC Valinor scored the opening goal, the mirage had lifted.

FC Valinor opened the game with their testing phase, working the ball in Isengard's half and around the penalty area. Isengard did well defending at the opening, but they simply couldn't win the ball and when they did cut off one of FC Valinor's passes, it wasn't long before Curufin easily stole it back from the treeish Isengard defenders.

In the 31st minute what felt like a long over-due occurance, Yavanna scored the opening goal. After that, the flood gates opened and Isengard unravelled. 3 minutes after Yavanna's goal, Maglor boomed a pass from mid-circle, and Curufin easily won the ball from Mauhur, sprinted by the Ents and scored. Then 5 minutes after that FC Valinor had a free kick and Curufin put hit such a wicked curve that his father would be proud of, it was 3-0 FC Valinor within a span of 10 minutes.

Isengard's spirits were broken and the 2nd half seemed more like a formality, as Isengard still couldn't win possession, but FC Valinor wasn't trying to push for more goals and they kicked it around the mid-field. Despite the slow pace there was still time for another FC Valinor score. Curufin was pushing for a hat-trick and rocketed a shot but it hit off the top post and Argon cleaned up the rebound.

Isengard began the game actually with a crowd advantage, not only because their fans outnumbered FC Valinor's, but the neutral Gondorians in attendance, even if awed by the great Elves, Valar, and hound Huan didn't feel any real connection towards those players. Where they knew the Isengard team and whatever happened in the past, Saruman had been regarded as a friend. But by the 2nd half, most Isengarders left humiliated, and the neutrals remained in the stands now partying with FC Valinor's fans for the sheer greatness they witnessed today.

Isengard 0-4 FC Valinor
on target 1-7
tot shots 7-14
GOALS:
*31, 0-1 Yavanna (Elemmire)
*34, 0-2 Curufin (Maglor)
*39, 0-3 Curufin
*61, 0-4 Argon (Curufin)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Isengard- Wulf, Lugdush, Wormtongue, Lurtz
*FCVal-

----

Seaside Financial Field was packed to the brim for the 2nd match between Barad-Dur and Gondor. FC Valinor had dismantled Isengard so both felt if they could get a win today they could be in control of their own fates. A draw would be most unfortunate because then they'd have to rely on outside factors like goal differential and not trying to lose as badly to FC Valinor as Isengard did. And of course, you always want to defeat your bitter rivals. The crowd was split pretty much evenly, most Gondorians came to Dol Amroth to cheer for their home team, because the other Gondorian team, Minas Tirith, were playing over seas in the Group F of death. However, Sauron bought up thousands of tickets (then re-sold them at a bargain price in Mordor) as soon as sales opened, to assure a large party loyal to Barad-Dur would be in attendance. Hundreds of Isengarders returned to cheer for Barad-dur and hoping to see a much better team than their own). There were very few neutrals in the crowd, and they were likely only Curufin, Eonwe, Huan and Celegorm who came to the game to scout their future opponents.

For as excited and tense as the emotions were in the stadium, the game began rather flat. Everything from the passing to the players running appeared in slow-motion and of lesser quality after many had just witnessed FC Valinor's performance. But that didn't stop the crowd from exploding in the 25th minute. Anarion has become a difficult player to pin down. Meneldil sent a cross into the box, Alatar was challenging Anarion, but Anarion managed to win the header, heading it backwards to the open Turambar, who was running in towards goal and rifled it to the top of the net.

Gondor switched to their defensive plan of bogging down the mid-field and halting any Barad-dur's attacks before they could seriously threaten the defense. Still Barad-dur was pushing hard for an equalizer before the halftime whistle, but Gondor's lead held.

Crowd emotions were amping up now, after brewing up during the break (and the crowd could stop to get pints refilled). Gondorians were hoping for some more breathing room and therefor Anarion would get slightly more aggressive to push for the 2-goal lead. But the Orcs, Easterlings, Pirates and other baddies were beating their drums and stomping their feet hoping to spirit their team into an equalizer.

To the dissatisfaction of the Gondorians, it was Barad-dur who came out more aggressively. Sauron was working ever harder for an equalizer and as you often see when teams turn conservative to protect 1-goal leads, the lead will fail eventually. The problem playing to protect a lead is you can't afford making a mistake, you have to play nearly flawless defense. While Barad-dur was finding it exceptionally difficult to get through Gondor's mid-field, Castamir managed to provoke Earnil, and the ref decided to award Barad-dur a free-kick (plus book Earnil) after Earnil pushed Castamir in the back.

Sauron wanting to seize the opportunity commanded Alatar to come up and take the kick and get more bodies in the box. Alatar expertly hooked the ball over Gondor's defensive wall, and how Sauron managed to slip past Eldarion for an open header, in front of the keeper, Imrahil, no one knows. But it happened and the game was tied. You could hear groans and curses come out of half the stadium, but they were soon drowned out by the other half which began cheering wildly.

If the game started rather flat, it picked up in the middle, but the end fell even flatter than it began. The crowd was wanting to see great performances from their heroes. Performances worthy of the record books that would win it for their team, as well as break the back of their rivals. Yet, sadly, the crowd did not get what they yearned. Both teams desired to start with a win and 3 points, but appeared more afraid of losing than desiring a victory. Barad-dur and Gondor would play the remainder completely unrisky, and rather uninventive football. Thus Group D ends their round 1 games in a 1-1 draw.

Barad-Dur 1-1 Gondor
on target 6-4
tot shots 14-13
GOALS:
*25, 0-1 Turambar (Anarion)
*72, 1-1 Sauron (Alatar)
YELLOW CARDS:
*BDur- Alatar, Fellbeast#1
*Gondor- Earnil I, Eldarion

Standings (after Round 1):
FC Valinor, 3 pts, +4
Barad-dur, 1 pts, 0
Gondor, 1 pts, 0
Isengard, 0 pts, -4

[the phantom]

Group A, round 1

League games, friendly games, and even neighborhood games had a fairly consistent schedule in the Blessed Realm. The mighty Pelori blocked the rays of the sun until close to noon, so football matches all generally started right at high noon. Those that lived west of the mountains loved the light- the sun-rays gleaming off the many golden roofs of Valimar and off the huge bells ringing the top tier of the arena, as well as the light reflected by the jewel-studded marble stone used to build the arena itself.

The noon match would pit Armenelos against The Havens- solid squads with solid connections to one another. After all, Earendil was the forefather of the entire Armenelos squad, and their fellow Numenoreans, Amandil and Ar Zimrathan, were playing defense for The Havens. The Elves from nearby Alqualonde and Tol Eressea were there to support The Havens, as was a shipload of Gondorians (following Falastur and Imrazor). But what could only be called an armada had sailed in from Numenor- far too many for the stadium to hold, in fact. This didn't bother those without tickets- if they couldn't see any of the games at all, they were content to be near the stadium and party and enjoy the sights and feel of the Blessed Realm. It wasn't often mortals were allowed in after all.

The late match, scheduled to kick off at 3:30, was Valimar versus The Barrow-Downs. This match was widely expected to be lopsided, as the Downs hadn't made much noise in recent years, and Valimar looked to be quite good- they had Manwe, Mandos, and Arien after all. Plus they knew they'd have close to 100,000 supporters behind them, whereas only a couple hundred Barrow-Wights showed up to support The Barrow-Downs.

Most all security concerns revolved around these Wights, as they were known to be a bit irrational, and enjoyed making trouble just for the sake of it. Judging from whispers caught here and there and anonymous message-board comments, it seemed quite a few Wights were keen to throw a wrench into things- particularly since The Blessed Realm was fresh off of a hosting ban.

************

Crowds of Elves and Ainu and Numenoreans streamed through the portals of the stadium, some more slowly than others. These were the first-timers, trying to absorb the look of one of the oldest and finest arenas in Middle-Earth. Even after thousands of years it looked as if it was built the day before- joints were perfect and lines were straight, and there was no chipping or weathering. And the flowers and trees that seemed to grow right out of the marble were flawless as well- not a single wilted leaf or fallen petal.

Visitors wondered if all of this was due to immaculate care (which was either admirable or frighteningly obsessive), or if it was down to some magic or power that permeated the land of Aman (which some found wonderful and entrancing while other found it unnatural and creepily sterile). But whatever the reason, it was certainly different than what any visitor was used to, and there's a certain satisfaction to be found in experiencing new things.

Some of the crowds were still wondering the halls beneath the seats when already the game started, but after hearing the rise and fall of voices the lollygaggers soon found their way in to fill the arena to capacity. The crowd provided a good-natured and educated audience to the battle that unfolded on the pitch, which proved to be a delightful display of intelligent play, teamwork and athleticism.

Perhaps due to their long association, it was the Numenoreans that had the slight edge in the early going. They held possession just a bit better, and the ball flowed nicely back and forward again when The Havens would successfully close a side off, and at the moment Armenelos wasn't willing to take a flyer on risky offensive passes. They preferred to establish their will in the contest rather than give opportunities to the attack of The Havens. Even before the match it was obvious to most that Armenelos would play it this way, as Elros himself said: "The fewer chances Earendil gets the happier I'll be. We believe in our skill and discipline on defense, but he is who he is- and sometimes you'll have things defended correctly and he'll beat you anyway. And he has Cirdan and Falastur to work with. In short- we're not keen to play with fire."

But as it is said, the best laid schemes of wights and men go often awry, and when it looked as if Armenelos was at last tiring and frustrating The Havens, their hard work was flushed away in a moment. The Numenoreans with a series of fantastic passes got their best look yet, and Ar Adunakhor fired a blast from the corner of the box. Amandil saw the slot open on his goal and leaped, and his guess and timing were true, and the shot rebounded off his hands. There was a momentary free-for-all in front of the goal in which three or four players all touched but could not control, and then Olwe emerged with it, and fired it downfield.

Tar Palantir looked in position to receive it, but a dashing Earendil put on a burst of speed and managed to touch it past, and to the dismay of the Numenorean audience with a couple lightning-quick moves he rounded Telperien and Calmacil and booted in in to put The Havens ahead!

And the bells rang beautiful and clear, mixing with the jubilation of the Havens supporters. The Numenorean fans were impressed with Earendil and started applauding the effort, but stopped in some annoyance when the bells sounded. The great bells of the stadium were always reserved for the home team, which in Group A was certainly Valimar- but then why would they sound now? The Numenoreans felt a bit slighted, as if they were on the outside looking in.

To be fair some pointed out that Olwe and Earendil played for Valinorean club teams in the fall and resided in the Blessed Realm, but still it could not be denied that Havens was not the home team, so it really was not proper to sound the bells for them. The players on the field looked annoyed as well, and they looked determined to even the score, but The Havens was riding high on the energy and emotion in the arena and Armenelos was lucky to make it into the break only one goal down.

When the second half started it was more of the same, with The Havens looking a bit sharper, but 12 minutes in it was a repeat of the first half, and the squad with the back against the wall struck a blow. Falastur struck a solid drive on goal, but Tar Palantir deflected it and Ar Gimilzor alertly sent it to the left side and forward where Tar Ancalimon was on the move. He touched it down nicely, cut inside of his mark and sent it across and forward to Elros. As the retreating defenders whirled to meet the new source of the threat, Ar Adunakhor somehow was lost to the defense, and Elros fired a perfect pass between defenders, releasing Adunakhor onside. In a moment of indecision Amandil was uncertain if he could hope to beat Adunakhor to the ball, and when he did go for it he was too late. Adunakhor nudged the ball sideways and dashed straight around the sliding keeper and nudged the ball across the line to level the game!

The Numenoreans celebrated this turn of events, and hoped it would energize their team the way it did The Havens in the first half. A minute or so after the goal the noise of celebration grew even louder, as the news had spread to the streets and squares surrounding the stadium where thousands of Numenoreans were encamped, having been unable to secure tickets but wishing to be in proximity to the game anyway.

But only one minute later the Armenelos fans were biting their nails again, as a brilliant long cross from Cirdan found a flying Olwe, and his header was only barely tipped away. The ensuing corner led to a scary moment as well, as the ball skipped across to Earwen and she sent an accurate snipe up and over to the opposite corner, but Tar Telperien had been guarding that post on the corner-kick and she managed to recover to it just in time to rise up and bump it over the goal.

As time approached 70 minutes Armenelos finally seemed to work out a way to stymie Havens. To that point Earwen and Mithrellas had been sitting somewhat deep but far too unharrassed, and were simply too easily flipping the field, getting the ball to either Cirdan or Olwe who were spear-heading attacks on opposite sides. And Armenelos had often been overly concerned about denying Earendil and Falastur in the center.

But no more- Armenelos spread their defense a bit, encouraging their midfielders to pressure the ladies in the rear center. Now pressured to send it away within a second of receiving it, quality targets were less easy to find, and so giving the ball to Havens resulted in it going back to Armenelos rather quickly. But even then The Havens would not crack at their end, and the fans grew restless. The Numenorean supporters felt that it was important to get a win here, seeing as apparently Havens had been adopted as a second home team, thus there was a danger of Valimar being content to draw them in the final game if Valimar claimed victory over Armenelos first.

The clock went past 80 minutes and a thread of panic began sweeping some of the more worrisome sorts, but they didn't need to wait long for relief...

Havens had the ball again and sent it up to Cirdan, but Armenelos closed on him and he, as he had so many times, sent it back to Mithrellas. She found Olwe covered on the other sideline, while Tar Miriel was on Earwen like glue, and so with Tar Telemmaite bearing down she tried to send it back to Imrazor- a fatal mistake that Ar Adunakhor had been hoping for. He knew she didn't have the power to deliver a ball like that without leaving him time to intercept, thus he had waited some distance away baiting such a pass, and when it came he was off in an instant.

Adunakhor came from Imrazor's left and slightly behind him, flashing in front of him and taking the ball with his chest. On the ball's first bounce he turned goalward with it, and when Ar Zimrathan came to meet him he slid it sideways to Tar Ancalimon whom he had spotted during his turn, and with a full view in front of him Ancalimon approached the ball and sent it to the left side of the goal area where Ar Pharazon was marked by Annael. Keeping the elf on his back the larger Numenorean received it, faked a turn left then turned right and fired, sending it within inches of both his mark and the keeper to the near post, but so hard that nothing could be done about it!

Armenelos had the lead for the first time with only a handful of minutes remaining! Some of the Ainur in the crowds looked quite let down- they greatly preferred The Havens to the proud Numenoreans, and yet they applauded the effort. It was a well earned goal produced by tactics and execution, and they appreciated good play in Valimar.

In the closing minutes The Havens produced one threat- an impossible solo run by Earendil. But at last he was forced to give it away, and he did find Eriol in stride from about 25 yards, but the ball flew over the goal, even without help from Tar Atanamir who looked like he had a bead on it anyway.

The Armenelos supporters celebrated as the final seconds ticked away. Relief showed on many of their faces, but only for a bit, as it was swiftly replaced with the familiar smug surety- though to give a full report there were quite a few, notably the self-described "Faithful", that showed every bit of grace in their victory, mirroring the bearing and sportsmanship of Elros, the captain on the field. Players like Adunakhor and Pharazon might be guilty of gloating at times, but they had experienced a challenging game and were willing to shake hands with and credit their adversaries, particularly Ar Zimrathan and Earendil.

Armenelos 2-1 Havens
on target 6-6
tot shots 14-14
GOALS:
*28, 0-1 Earendil (Olwe)
*57, 1-1 ArAdunakhor (Elros)
*82, 2-1 ArPharazon (TarAncalimon)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Armenelos- TarCalmacil, Tar Miriel
*Havens- ArZimrathan

Of the second game there was less to tell afterwards, at least concerning the action on the pitch. The Barrow-Downs was a bit less ornery than the past couple years, perhaps because Alien was now confined to the goalkeeper position, but they seemed to understand that it wasn't wise to bring the righteous wrath of the Valar down upon their heads.

Instead they looked set to play a low-scoring game of keep-away and time-wasting, but only 15 minutes in Valimar interrupted these plans with a perfectly executed header from Irmo, thanks to a nice find from Ilmare. But the Barrow-Downs didn't push back much, but seemed content to allow Valimar to rest on their lead, perhaps hoping to sneak a draw at the end.

And indeed it looked like the strategy would work. Both sides played very conservatively, minimizing risk and even at times looked to be avoiding injury as if it was a friendly. Small sections of Numenoreans and Noldor began voicing their annoyance as the half approached, but they were ignored, so they just grew louder. But Manwe did appear to give a little look their direction as he exited the pitch for the break.

And it seems he had a reason for the look, for as soon as the new half started up Valimar attacked in force, and started spraying crosses in for Arien, and sending longballs forward to Ingwe and Irmo. The Barrow-Downs frankly got a deer-in-headlights look at that point, and it wasn't long before Valimar had another goal- this time Irmo turned distributor, finding Ingwe for an easy finish.

As always the sound of the crowd rose, but... something was missing. The visitors didn't place it immediately, but the locals certainly did, and heads all around the arena swiftly turned around to look at the nearest bell above their section. None of them were ringing in celebration!

Workers soon discovered that all the ropes had been severed, though the populace didn't hear the tale until after the match was concluded. If they had been informed, perhaps they would have rushed the section of Wights in attendance, for nearly all are certain that they are somehow responsible, for they looked far too gleeful following Valimar's goal.

For the remainder of the match all that can be said is that The Barrow-Downs decided they may as well play a couple little dirty tricks on their way out, and Hookbill, Alien, and GwathWight all were carded for various forms of mischief, though thankfully none of it caused permanent harm. And in fact it may have only been their nonsense that made the last half-hour viewable. Most of the crowd found GwathWight's attempts to roast a marshmallow on Arien's skin quite entertaining at least.

Barrow-Downs 0-2 Valimar
on target 3-4
tot shots 10-10
GOALS:
*15, 0-1 Irmo (Ilmare)
*54, 0-2 Ingwe (Irmo)
YELLOW CARDS:
*BDowns- Lumpkin, Hookbill, Alien, GwathWight
*Valimar- Irmo

STANDINGS
Valimar________3 pts_____+2
Armenelos______3 pts_____+1
Havens_________0 pts_____-1
Barrow-Downs___0 pts_____-2

[Nogrod]

Group E @ Erebor

The time had finally come. The Arkenstone Arena was filling rapidly after the largest creatures had been escorted in. The organizers were not taking any risks with tens of thousands of creatures flocking the entrances and corridors together with huge dragons, eagles and balrogs. Better safe than sorry they said.

All the teams competing in group E were more or less neighbours and thusly all had their fair share of fans in the stands to cheer for them, but it was clear team Eriador was a kind of a loner in the company of others – even if the Lothlórien and Mirkwood elves and eagles would probably support Eriador when their own team wasn’t playing. But all the other teams seemed to have a lot of cross-support and when not playing each other most creatures tended to cheer for each other’s teams.

The late “game of death” between Erebor and Wilderland was naturally the game most everyone were looking forwards to but there was one game to play first – and surely most spectators were ready to shout their throats sore for Misty Mountains to surprise the favourites Eriador.


~*~

So when Misty Mountains emerged from the underground tube to the arena led by Durin’s Bane, Narvi and Gwaihir the noise of the crowds celebration grew almost inbearably loud while Eriador-fans’ cheers were almost overcrowded by the booing – even if it was only a fraction of the crowd who behaved in such a distasteful manner.

But if there was majesty and splendour in Durin’s Bane, Gwaihir and Caradhras (how did Caradhras exactly fit inside the Mt. Erebor nobody kind on understands – it is an unfathomable miracle of Eru) it was more than balanced by the radiance and nobility of Glorfindel, Gil-Galad and Isildur leading team Eriador into the Arena.

This was exactly what the creatures who were packing the Arena had come for: the great heroes, leaders, soldiers, kings and queens, villains, brute force, cunning, bravery, mastery – and the greatest show on Arda!

Compared to the expectations the first half of the game was something like an anticlimax though. Both teams played it safe from defence first – and it was actually Misty Mountains that seemed the more active side. Some cognoscenti explained that Elrond wants still to give his new defence some practise, but after two shut-outs in the friendlies that seemed like overdoing it. Nevertheless, it was clear Durin’s Bane and Azog found no easy way inside the Eriador defence and were forced to take hasty shots which came mostly from afar and went mostly wide.

On the other end of the field Glorfindel and Isildur were guarded personally – and succesfully – by Gwaihir and Watcher respectively. From behind them Arveleg forced Chief Wolf into one major save, but that was probably the only real scoring opportunity of the first half.

Interestingly enough, both teams had clearly had the same thoughts in the locker rooms during the half-time – and thus they came into the second period with a totally new energy. It felt like they had had their practise round and were now in it for real. The full house was just silenced with the difference in the tempo of the play and the aggressiveness of the attacks of both teams, and then burst into chanting from pure enjoyment of the new game.

And suddenly the crowds went just wild. Durin’s Bane headed the ball in from between Aragorn and Arwen and took Misty Mts. into lead! Elrond had no chance against the mighty header from under five meters from the goal.The favourites Eriador were trailing Misty Mts. with about half an hour of the game left!

But Eriador was now changing gear one more time. And it was actually NogWight – the guy who’s signing the AKM has questioned among many others – who finally hammered the evener in. With Gwaihir and Watcher tying Glorfindel and Isildur down, he broke boldly in to the box from under William’s legs – and Arveleg was awake passing the ball past Caradhras. With a clinical finish NogWight put the ball in behind the on-rushing Chief Wolf from the close quarters.

Many in the crowds were having a positive mind still. Misty Mountains were playing even with Eriador – and that would be more than welcome result to basically all the other teams of the group. The hometeam fans and the fans of Wilderland-supporters would have been more than happy with this result – and they were counting nervousoly to the moinutes on the screen going soo slowly.

For Eriador was in no mood for a draw. They rained in their attacks one after another –the ball rarely left the Misty Mts.’ side of the field and when it did it was delivered back there in a flash. The game was played at one end alone the last fifteen-twenty minutes.

And Eriador did get their reward in the end. Worn with all the flying to and fro after Glorfindel Gwaihir’s concentration lapsed for a fleeting moment – and the frustrated emissary of Valar ran free immediately towards the left post of the goal. Aragorn had just received the ball from Arador and realising Glorfindel was free delivered it from almost thirty meters straight to his head. The Chief Wolf made a nice dive for the ball seeing it coming but Glorfindel’s header was cunningly aimed at the ground in front of the goal and so the Wolf leaped over it – and the ball went into the net.

There was only three minutes of the game left. Coming over from their empty feeling of a lost draw the crowds tried their best to beat Misty Mts. into a last minute fight back but it seemed the players themselves didn’t believe in their chances any more – and as Eriador immediately closed their defence from midfield on there was no apparent route around it either. Rumil’s far-shot was the last effort of the game just before the referee called the time. Elrond had no problems picking it.

Eriador had taken the win they were supposed to take, but they weren’t actually impressive. The team needs to tighten it’s game a lot if they wish to go farther in the tournament – or well, start to play already on the first half. Misty Mountains had their moments in the game and thus gave a warning to the other two teams that they will not be overrun easily in this group.


Eriador 2-1 Misty Mts
on target 6-4
tot shots 12-12
GOALS:
*62, 0-1 DBane (Great Goblin)
*72, 1-1 NogWight (Arvaleg)
*87, 2-1 Glorfindel (Aragorn)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Eriador- Asfaloth
*MMts- William, Great Goblin



For most of the spectators the important game of the day was yet to be played. So when teams Erebor and Wilderland entered the field the noise of the crowds was just deafening. That’s the problem with halls inside mountains – there is no sky up above for the sound to escape but it ends up echoing around the closed space.The dwarves seemed to enjoy it, and the orcs and goblins just loved it, while the men and elves were grasping for their ear-plugs – if they had them.

Now both Erebor and Wilderland are known to be teams that do not concentrate so much on defence but whose game-plan is to outscore the opponent with brutal force. But it is easy to say only a few in the audience were prepared for the rollercoaster-ride they were offered. Unlike the earlier game (or the first half of it) this was an offensive-football nirvana. It was a spectacular game giving no-one a chance to claim they wouldn’t have gotten the worth of their money.

The thunder of the full house was just astonishing but in the thirteenth minute a fair half of the stadium went totally silent. Even if the decibels were still far over any recommended levels it felt like silence. With a clever pass by Thranduil the first elf to have awaken, Imin, volleyed the ball behind Beorn and the guests were leading 1-0! Like thousands years ago IRL he emerged from nowhere and astonished everyone by just being there in the open – this time to score.

There was a relentless fight in the field and the roar of the crowds made it almost an infernal experience. Radagast and the ents stood firm against the incessant onslaught of Smaug, Nazgûl #7, Bard and Bolg, while at the other end the (formerly) last lord of Dale and Thorin Oakenshield himself tried to hold Scatha, Thranduil and Nazgûl #3 at bay with the eagles.

But around half an hour’s play Erebor’s defences failed yet again when Scatha forced himself past the eagles and got room enough to manouver the ball in with his tail. Wilderland was leading 2-0! The home-team was taking a beating. The dwarves – and other fans of the homeside – were not believing their eyes.

But Erebor came back to the game – and did it fast, effectively and with gusto!

Possibly given strength or atl east encouraged by the cheering crowds Erebor just forced their attacks over the Wilderland defences. They just couldn’t lose this game at their home-arena. And it was speed that now mattered.

Between the slowish – even if tough – ents and the old elf and wizard Smaug, Nazgûl #7 and Bard pressed themselves to the limit of their speed. And lo and behold, they started making results!

Bard ran away from the defences just seven minutes after Scatha’s goal and placed the ball neatly behind the Great Warg. Only six minutes from that the other players out-ran Wilderland defences and at the crucial point lent the ball back to the corner of the box from where Smaug had sprinted and gave such a wing-shot the Warg wouldn’t have had no chance of preventing the goal even if he’d have time to dive for it – which he obviously hadn’t.

So the teams went into their lockers for the half-time with the scoreboard announcing a draw 2-2.

In reverse to the earlier game, after a furious first half-battle for life and death the second half started with some cautious play from both sides. It was clear the first half had been such an “all-or-nothing” game that both teams decided to take it a bit more carefully to at least avoid a loss.

But as it sometimes happens, the tail wags the dog and not the other way around. The crowds started showing their discontent so openly it forced the players to gear up against their firm decisions to play more cautiously on the half-time. After twenty minutes of somewhat careful play the fight was brutal, aggressive and open again. And everyone loved it!

Seventeen minutes before the full time the Arkenstone Arena just exploded when Azog’s son Bolg slided the ball in with a feet-ahead dive from a fast turnover robbed by none other than Smaug itself.

One could see Smaug smirking at Scatha as they passed each other on their way to the center of the field for the opening shot for Wilderland. Smaug was clearly getting the overhand in the battle of the two dragons. He had already scored three goals in the friendlies and had now 1+1 in this game against Scatha’s 1+0 (and only 1+0 in the two friendlies).

But even if you’re a dragon yourself, never irritate an old dragon! It was clear Scatha took that badly – and as a challenge from “the youngster”. And Scatha really beat his team to attack. There was little time, but there was time.

The Wilderland attacked furiously forcing most of the Erebor team into the perimeter of the box only to defend their goal. Parking a bus of eight in front of your goal should frustrate any opposition but Wilderland kept on coming towards the living wall. The crowds were half keeping their breath and half shouting their lungs out – the resulting sound was an eerie experience in the Arena were echoes went from wall to wall…

And then Scatha had his moment. Nazgûl #3 centered the ball from the right side and Landroval dived to intercept but Scatha used the tip of his tail to snatch the ball from in front of the great eagle only to pass it forwards to himself – when Meneldor flung in to cut a pass to Thranduil. Making a sudden leap forwards Scatha managed to hit the ball with his muzzle while Tuirin had no chance of reach the height – and Beorn was totally outwitted as he was too going for a pass to Thranduil to the other end of the goal.

Wilderland had evened the game a fair ten minutes before the close – and both Scatha and Nazgûl #3 were seen to leer to their fellows on the other team going back to the center of the field.

Both teams actually tried to scoe a winner during the last minutes but it was clear neither team wished to lose so they both went defence first to the last ten minutes – and so it was a draw.

Immediately when the game ended most of the crowds were happy with the result as fans of both teams had really feared losing at one or another phase of the game. But with the adrenaline gone both teams and their fans were quite disappointed with it.Even if Eriador hadn’t been exactly flashing they were still the favourites and thus everything was up to how they played against them and the Misty Mts. There had been a chance to stick into a qualifier’s position but neither team had managed to grasp it.


Erebor 3-3 Wilderland
on target 9-7
tot shots 22-18
GOALS:
*13, 0-1 Imin (Thranduil)
*28, 0-2 Scatha (Nazgul#3)
*35, 1-2 Bard (Brand)
*41, 2-2 Smaug (Nazgul#7)
*73, 3-2 Bolg (Smaug)
*78, 3-3 Scatha (Nazgul#3)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Erebor- Nazgul#7, Landroval
*Wilder- Skinbark

[the phantom]

The Rauros area was nicely accessible to three of the four teams of Group H- Mordorians could approach over the Brown Lands or sail up the river, those from Rohan could ride across the Wold, and those that dwelt along the Anduin could of course take the river (though those from the north had to deal with a rapid or two).

Arnor had a considerably longer trek, and not surprisingly had a smaller turnout- though they were more in evidence than the Orcs of Mordor, for the Orcs were not bunking and dining in the area immediately surrounding the arena, but rather the Coliseum Construction Committee (CCC) had built for them their own little town at the foot of Amon Lhaw. When asked if they had hastily thrown it up after discovering Mordor would be visiting, the CCC responded: “No, no, we had this nearly completed last year. We thought it’d be good for the future to have an area for visitors that was more isolated, in case there was any bad blood between teams or fans. Now that it’s completed visiting teams will always be welcome to choose the Amon Lhaw section as their area if they want a bit of privacy, or if they just want to avoid the other teams. By next year we hope to have a decent practice field set up over there so that literally everything they need will be there, and soon after we’ll add a couple more buildings so that Amon Lhaw can house two squads if need be.”

The CCC was also asked if they planned for the Amon Lhaw area to become an area of multi-seasonal or permanent use, as much of the west side of the lake was becoming. “Well, we do have a couple ideas for down the road- perhaps an amusement park- but really none of that is even in the planning stages. For the moment the Amon Lhaw guest facilities will stand empty for parts of the year, though after we establish an easier way to make the crossing we may house workers there.”

Some complained that sticking Mordor across the lake was an unhealthy bit of segregation, but the CCC was dismissive. “Mordor was quite willing to stay there- they can create an atmosphere that makes them feel at home, and there’s less worry of their people being arrested for getting into altercations. And it’s not as if we dumped them into tents- those are nice new lodgings and pubs over there, and fully staffed- largely by Orcs who know how to make the preferred liquors and dishes. Really everyone is more comfortable with the arrangement, and those who say otherwise are simply trying to cause trouble.”

But on the eve of the games all of the development and lodging issues faded into the background, and football was the only subject being talked about. According to the betting agencies Group H was by far the most competitive group, with the lowest odds of advancing (Mordor & Rohan) sitting at 42% and Anduin and Arnor sitting at 58%. But interestingly enough Rohan was the heaviest bet for winning the group outright 33%, while Arnor was sitting lowest at around 17%. Needless to say, the public and agencies were split.

Everyone hoped the group was as exciting as it looked to be on paper. They wouldn’t have to wait long to find out….

----------------------------

The first game of the day pitted those historic foes, Mordor and Rohan. With the massive number of seats of Amon Hen Coliseum, visitors of but two squads could not hope to fill it up, thus most of the Anduin and Arnor crowds were there as well, and the remainder was filled by Gondorians, both local and from downriver. Under most circumstances fans wouldn’t have the cash to attend both games each round, but the number of seats allowed the tickets to be sold for a bit cheaper than usual.

Without a doubt the crowd was on the side of Rohan. They had quite a few of their own fans, plus the Gondorians were supporting them to a man. Lucky for Mordor, Sauron had ensured that a sizable travelling group would come in from Dol Guldur, so Mordor at least had one sizable portion of cheerers, and of course they were noisy and rowdy.

At 1 o’clock sharp the game started up, and quickly the crowd was singing and happy, for Rohan was looking impressive. The threat of Shelob appeared nicely contained by Windfola or Snowmane, and the King of the Dead had apparently given some advice on how to combat the ill effects of the Nazgul, or perhaps just being around him in practice constantly had inoculated them. Whatever the reason, Mordor could make no headway against the horse-lords, and at only 5 minutes Faramir and Eowyn played a nice combination and earned Brytta a clear look, but his shot went astray.

A few minutes later it was Helm with an opportunity, but he didn’t summon quite enough will to break through the resistance of the Silent Watcher, and the ball rebounded away. Finally around the 20 minute mark Mordor started seeing some possession and regained their composure, and changed up their tactics just a bit, threatening to spring counters and trying to keep Rohan from attacking as a team. The change did just enough to throw Rohan off their rhythm, and at near the half-hour mark Mordor gained their first real shot, and again a couple minutes later, but both drives by The Mouth were caught by a sure-handed Theoden.

To the dismay of the Men and Elves, just minutes before halftime Mordor drew first blood. Rohan was trying to press the attack a bit before the half, and Gorbag caught them out of position after a steal and a long ball let two Nazgul and Shelob looses on Theoden with only the two horses for help. Snowmane moved to Shelob, leaving Windfola to deal with the Nazgul and the ball. Windfola charged one to force the issue, but the Nazgul left the ball behind them, and no one had noticed Shagrat was loping up behind them. Both Nazgul charged past Windfola as Shagrat reached the ball and sent it skidding into the box. Rohan supporters were certain the pass had been late thus offsides should have been called, but no flag went up, and Theoden was helpless to stop it.

During the half the legality of the goal was the only subject discussed in the Rohan areas—folks from the opposite end made a point of wondering closer to the Rohan goal to ask the fans there what they had seen from their angle. The verdict was unanimous among those that were level with the play—the rear feet of the Nazgul were perhaps onside, but the rest of them certainly weren’t. The commentators tried to give the refs some benefit of doubt, saying that the fact that Windfola was a horse made there appear an illusion of offside, as the Nazgul were indeed past his head, shoulders, and front legs, and thus would be offside with any other person, but the horse had back legs and a tail, and the Nazgul perhaps weren’t beyond that.

At the start of the second half most were expecting Rohan to return to the field with a fury, but instead they looked calculating and controlled. Their discipline and intelligence controlled the opening 10 to 15 minutes, and then Mordor decided to crank up the aggression and break Rohan’s coolness. The Nazgul shrieked and the Orcs let loose warcries and Shelob began menacing the Rohan horses, posturing herself in a way clearly predatory in nature- and the horses recognized it as such.

Rohan protested Shelob’s behavior, saying it was not proper for her to frighten horses to the point where it impacted their play, but the refs insisted that intimidation was fair play, so long as it didn’t involve excess physical contact. And soon the tactic indeed played dividends, as Shelob found herself marked only by a little human on a cross, the horses scared to approach, and she struck it with her mighty head and Mordor was up by two goals!

Most Rohan fans and even a couple players looked like the fight was out of them, but most of the team looked ready to go to war—go all out for 30 more minutes and see if a draw was possible. For a couple minutes Faramir and Helm looked like they would succeeded in spurring Rohan to a comeback, both nearly put it past Silent Watcher with pinpoint midrange snipes, but then disaster!

The King of the Dead had been chippy with Gothmog II and Gorbag for much of the game, and since Mordor took the two-goal lead they’d been needling him constantly. Finally in his temper and desperation he went too far—he had already been carded for his behavior, and a tackle well after the ball was gone got him sent off the field.

The reaction among the Rohan supporters was impotent frustration and despair. Down two goals and a man short, they could not hope for a comeback. What fools they were for aligning themselves with Mr. Dead King—he wasn’t a proper Rohanian, and he had cost them the game.

Mordor made the most of their advantage in numbers, holding possession better than ever before and running the precious seconds away. And in the end there wasn’t really much to tell of the final minutes. Mordor smartly got the job done and soon they were exiting the coliseum with their fans, headed towards the docks to hitch a ride back to Amon Lhaw, where they planned to party the rest of the night.

Mordor 2-0 Rohan
on target 6-4
tot shots 15-12
GOALS:
*40, 1-0 Nazgul#2 (Shagrat)
*63, 2-0 Shelob (Nazgul#1)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Mordor- Mumakil, Mouth
*Rohan- Erkenbrand, King Dead, Hama
RED CARDS:
Rohan- King Dead (69, second yellow)

The departing Orcs were soon replaced by the few fans of Anduin and Arnor that didn’t attend the first match, as well as additional Gondorians. There was still some daylight left, but a few of the stadium lights were lit, and more would be lit periodically as the natural light faded.

After most of the fans were disappointed with the result of the first match, they were looking forward to seeing something to cheer them up—a good match between two well-liked squads. And the fans were not disappointed.

In the opening 20 minutes both sides showed their mettle. Grimbeorn was a powerful menace up front, and the athleticism of Eorl and powerful boot of Boromir complimented him, but Malbeth was farsighted for Arnor and could see the attacks coming, and Elendil the tall was powerful and denied any high ball in the box. At the other end of the pitch the Kings of Arnor flowed together like parts of one machine, while the Witch King threatened with his finishing power, but Fram and Celeborn were up to the task for Anduin.

They were testing one another, and each time the other side passed, and the crowd was enjoying things immensely. Eorl and Haldir both had a chance to show off their burst and ball tricks, but it never yielded a result, while the Witch King showed off his power with a 35-yard bending drive that Amroth was forced to deflect. But everyone knew the squads had more up their sleeves and just weren’t showing it yet. Who would be the first to really crank things up?

It would be the home side. At the 26 minute mark Celeborn made a surprise run forward through the middle and Leod got it to him immediately as Eorl and Haldir rushed to flank him. For a brief moment before the defenders converged Anduin had numbers enough to perhaps gain a clear lane to shoot through as they approached, and indeed Celeborn sent it over to Haldir who looked for certain he’d take a crack at it, but no—he sent it to the right side where Fram had charged up from his position, and though he wasn’t particularly close to goal Fram immediately struck. Arvedui drifted to his left to adjust to the new positioning, and Fram went back behind him to the far post, the ball travelling out away from the keeper only to curve back towards the goal upon passing him! It was a brilliant shot, and the home team had the lead!

But before the Anduin fans could get all their celebrating out of their system, Arnor was going to work, moving the ball with ease and precision not yet seen previously. It was obvious everyone was on the same page, and they were comfortable with one another. They had to be annoyed that Anduin had beaten them to the punch, but it didn’t effect their play negatively.

Already at the 30 minute mark Araphor forced Amroth to make another save, and minutes later he had to jump on a loose ball that had deflected off Felarof, who had surely saved a goal. The Witch King thrice managed to find space to fire on goal, but two of them went wide, while the other hit the top bar. The Elves of Lothlorien and men of Gondor and the Anduin Vales that were supporting Anduin grew quite nervous indeed.

But at 40 minutes it was sheer delight on their faces, as a lovely tackle by Lenwe led to a quick counter, and Haldir hung it up in front of the net and Grimbeorn with a pure burst of strength outmuscled and outleaped everyone for it and nosed it perfectly inside the side and top bars for the two goal lead!

In the second half Arnor came out looking dangerous again, but bit by bit the Anduin defense got better and better—they were learning the patterns and playing things smart, and the tireless effort of Celeborn, Lenwe, and Felarof could apparently not be matched by the mortals of Arnor. Soon it was Anduin that was more threatening, and after Boromir nearly scored off a corner and Eorl forced a difficult save, Arnor shut things down so as not to increase their negative goal differential.

Much to the disappointment of some fans—certainly those of other squads—Anduin was content to accept the surrender and reigned things in, and soon the clock showed time over, and the locals had reason to celebrate. There were fireworks over the lake, and showers of sparks shot outward from the falls, lightning them and their cliffs for miles downstream. Anduin was revealed to all viewers, and it was mighty—just like its football team.

Anduin 2-0 Arnor
on target 7-4
tot shots 16-13
GOALS:
*26, 1-0 Fram (Haldir)
*40, 2-0 Grimbeorn (Haldir)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Anduin- Felarof
*Arnor-

STANDINGS
Anduin______3 pts_____+2
Mordor______3 pts_____+2
Arnor_______0 pts_____-2
Rohan______0 pts_____-2

[Boromir88]

Group G @ Angfauglith & Tol-in-Gaurhoth

All rounds in Group G will use two arenas to play matches as 3 of the teams in the group could be considered the home team with Imladris being the one feeling "we're not in Eriador anymore." So, the 6 o'clock game would be at Angfauglith Coliseum vs. Imladris, with the primetime match between Angband and Tol-in-Gaurhoth would be played at Tol-in-Gaurhoth's Stadium.

Angfauglith knew they needed a positive result in their match against Imladris, with the deadly Angband and Tol-in-Gaurhoth looming. So, the Coliseum was packed with screaming orcs, murderous-looking balrogs, and swarms of Ungoliant's children. Elladan and Elrohir managed to get a travelling party put together, but it wasn't very large and when combined with the few hundred swooning Figwit fanelves, it only totaled to about 6 or 7 thousand. (those operating the ticket booths had somehow found a way that would break up the Figwit party. While not being a large bunch they could be annoyingly loud and obnoxious all gathered together. But instead of all hundreds being in one section, they were split into groups of 3 to 5 throughout the stands. The organizers thought the stadium was so large they could accomplish this and if surrounding tiny individual pockets of Figwit followers with enthusiastic Angfauglith fans didn't intimidate them into shutting up, then the noise they could make would at least be drowned out). So it was a sea of blood-red in the stadium seats, crowned in unlight (since the spiders were perched on their webs at the top of the stadium)...and the crowd was looking for elvish blood to be spilled yet again on the barren fields of Anfauglith.

---

Moments before Imladris entered the field, all the baddies in the stands were gearing up to start jeering. They were going to let this Imladris side really have it. "We're going to let them know right away they're far away from home and will find no comfort with us!" they thought. Yet, when Imladris entered, led by Varda, it was as if the Angfauglith crowd suddenly forgot how to taunt and yell. There was nothing, so great was Varda's entrance they could not raise a sound against her. And all the Imladris heard were the greeting cheers of their own small band of followers. But then Angfauglith entered the stadium and the fear Varda struck into the heart of evil was driven from their minds, they were now roaring and supporting Angfauglith and as the match began, the confidence Imladris would be an easy meal for their team returned.

Yet as the 1st half minutes kept ticking away, it became clear Imladris was not going to be so easy to defeat. Their defense when led by Varda are Arda-class professionals, who were not going to be rattled or intimidated by the crowd. Gothmog was having no room to maneuver, being heavily guarded by Varda. And Ecthelion, who is a good goal-scorer but can't beat being doubled by Erestor and Galdor. It was the issue many had foreseen with Angfauglith this year, their mid-field was not good enough to get enough touches to their scorers up front. It was being easily dominated by Imladris' mid-field.

Although, at the other end, Imladris was having no more creating their own scoring chances against the solid Balrog defenders with a fearsome Ungoliant as the last line of defense. Elladan and Elrohir might be superb against orcs, but they were getting bullied by the balrogs. The half ended without really any excitement during the first 45 as both teams had only managed 3 total shots each. It was a display of defensive excellence by both teams, but the crowd had died down to near silence after 20 minutes or so, and realizing the ineffectiveness of both offenses.

The 2nd half started and the crowd appeared waiting for something to happen and cheer about. It wasn't a goal, but something did happen in the 60th minute that got the crowds attention back into the game. Figwit was given a yellow card after his pass was intercepted by Balrog #3. He tried to get the ball he lost back quickly, and got a bit overzealous clearly charging the Balrog and not actually trying to make a play on the ball. Figwit's fans were swooning over the elf's bravery to challenge a Balrog, but the Angfauglith fans were laughing hysterically because it was Figwit who ended up on his back and he got booked for it too! Then they booed even louder when they realized the ref also gave a yellow to the Balrog because the ref judged it used excessive retaliation force. Kneeing Figwit in the chest was not seen as "accidental."

It did spark the crowd back into the action though, as they began realizing this could be a 0-0 draw, and that was just unacceptable. This was the game Angfauglith needed to win if they wanted to advance. Chances just still weren't materializing though, for either team. Imladris' attack was too weak to get past the Balrogs, but Angfauglith's midfield was too weak to move the ball cleanly from their back line to their upfront playmakers.

Having enough of this nonsense, in the 66th minute, Angfauglith moved their defenders up further, close to the mid-field and Balrog #2 instead of passing it to one of the midfielders, just passed it to Ecthelion. Then Ecthelion and Gothmog played a fantastic 1-2 tandem down the left flank. It was a sudden and smooth attack, and Varda realized Gothmog created a match-up problem as Celebrian was now forced to try to stop the balrog captain. Varda sprinted out of her area to challenge Gothmog, and aid her teammate. But once Gothmog saw Varda was committed to him, he rolled a pass back to the middle. Ecthelion was through! He split the double-team of Erestor and Galdor! It was a perfect feed from Gothmog. once Valandil gave away he was trying to take away the right post, Ecthelion had an easy time shooting to the open left post and it was a goal.

Angfauglith got their lead and were focused on protecting it for the remaining 25 minutes. We had chided Gondor earlier for switching conservative to protect a 1-goal lead. But we can't chide Angfauglith, because their defense is not only well organized by Ungoliant but they are exceptional athletes and they showed anyone witnessing the game, what a shutdown defense looked like. Even if Ungoliant had to make a few saves, they were Imladris taking long prayers from a distance which were just never going to give a goalie of Ungoliant's caliber any problems.

Angfauglith 1-0 Imladris
on target 3-3
tot shots 9-8
GOALS:
*66, 1-0 Ecthelion (Gothmog)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Angfaug- Gelmir, Balrog#3
*Imlad- Figwit, Erestor

The 2nd game of Group G took place in Tol-in-Gaurhoth, during the primetime 9pm slot. Tol-in-Gaurhoth, nicknamed "The Den" (which the Doriath Elves perceived as a mockery of their "Cave") was quite an unsettling and gloomy place to be. So, naturally the fans for both teams were feeling right at home. It's interesting that TIG had build a retractable dome stadium, but what's so unusual is...in all other stadiums covered by a dome, the dome is for protection from the outside elements if the weather is too bad. But for Tol-in-Gaurhoth it's the exact opposite. They welcome terrible weather (which is the norm in the haunted isle) and so when it's storming, cold, and thundering outside the roof is left open. But on occasions when the weather is decent and fair, it's closed and it can get very dark and damp underneath the dome. Conditions weren't too awful today, there was a light drizzle and cool breeze, so the roof was open.

It was rather evenly split, Angband was nearby, and there was Morgoth too so of course they would have plenty of fans. Being in Tol-in-Gaurhoth practically every werewolf and ghoul had to be in the stadium (and thousands upon thousands of bats were flying over head to support Thuringwethil). And as always TIG has a small population base to draw from, but their fans can create far more noise than most.

---

Like in the first game, the first half ended in a goalless tie. However, that didn't mean there was nothing happening and the fans attention never left the action happening on the field. Both defenses were strong but the offenses were also capable and created good chances. The wolves were playing hard not only for their fans but to show off their talent to Morgoth. Telvildo was looking rather scared, but Ancalagon was having his way with the werewolf defenders. Shastawolf could not be caught napping though and the wolf stopped 2 quick early chances from the dragon.

When TIG had the ball they had a quite an easy time getting through the Easterling midfield of Angband but then seemed to hit a brickwall that was Morgoth and his defense. And not to be outdone in goal Carcharoth also came up with important saves to keep the game 0-0 going into the break. But it seemed everyone in the stands knew goals were coming. Both offenses were just too talented, too athletic to be shutout, even if the same could be said about their defenses.

Having played a more defensive game the 1st period and having Ancalagon be the large target in the center Morgoth started the 2nd trying to get more players involved in the attack, hoping the TIG defense had been properly set up to pay too much attention to Ancalagon. Morgoth must have lit a fire under the cats during the break because they looked less scared by the wolves now and their agility was starting to cause real problems.

But just when it seemed Oikeroi and Telvildo were going to breakthrough with a goal, TIG had the tactics to freak out Telvildo again. GaladriWight was following Telvildo and could be heard telling the cat he was a handsome kitten and she couldn't wait to take him back to the barrow to add him to her already large handsome cats-in-bow-ties collection. It was too much to Telvildo who ran away hissing (chased by GaladriWight). Oikeroi had passed it to the spot Telvildo was supposed to be, but the only one there was NilpWolf and the wolf launched a sudden counterattack.

TIG had no trouble getting through Angband's midfield in the first half, and they had no troubles this time either. But the speed they were able to cut through the midfield caught Morgoth off guard and when phantomwolf hung a pass up into the box for Thuringwethil, it was a rare occasion Morgoth's defense was out of position. Carcharoth thought Thuringwethil would try to head the ball in, but instead the vampirebat knocked it back on the ground, to SallyWight who kicked it in. TIG had drawn first blood! And even the Angband fans had to admit it was a well deserved goal based on how both teams had played so far.

Unlike Angfauglith though, TIG was aware they couldn't play out the remainder of the game defensively, Angband's attack was just too good. They had Angband by the throat, so now it was time to go for the kill. A few minutes later it looked like InzilWolf would make it 2, and the wolves and wights would really start partying, but no...Carcharoth made a great save, knocking the shot out of bounds. Everyone applauded the save. This was fantastic. This was excitement. Two admirable teams going for it all the way to the end. And it would be a TIG corner now.

Phantomwolf took the corner, hitting a hard drive into the box. It was a congested battle in the middle and it seemed like phantomwolf overshot his target, as no one could see a TIG player and the closest one to the ball was Angband's Balrog defender. But out of the jumbled mess lept up Nilpwolf, outleaping the Balrog at the last second, Carcharoth was caught flat-pawed and could not spring up in time to stop Nilpwolf's header that got over Carcharoth and into the goal. 2-0 TIG!!

Morgoth was looking furious. He knew the wolves were going to be tough this year, but he was not accustomed to conceding 2 goals and losing in this fashion. Angband tried to claw their way back into the match, perhaps trying get at least 1 goal and salvage something. But as the time kept winding down towards the end, their attempts became more and more desperate, which did not trouble the confident wolves in the least bit. TIG carried their momentum and confidence all the way until the referee's final whistle. They had shut out Angband. It was said Morgoth quickly returned and shut himself in Angband after the match. He has much to think on after Angband's opening round loss and starting last in the group.

Angband 0-2 Tol-In-Gaurhoth
on target 4-6
tot shots 14-15
GOALS:
*67, 0-1 SallyWight (Thuringwethil)
*72, 0-2 NilpWolf (PhantomWolf)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Angband- Ulwarth, Ulfast, Ancalagon
*TIG- SallyWight, BoroWolf

Standings (after Round 1)
Tol-in-Gaurhoth, 3 pts, (+2)
Angfauglith, 3 pts, (+1)
Imladris, 0 pts, (-1)
Angband, 0 pts, (-2)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Nargothrond vs Minas Tirith, Pelargir Park

Minas Tirith supporters comprised barely more than half the stadium. With the proximity of another Arda Cup host site, some of the locals have chosen to watch Gondor in Dol Amroth (some of them believe that Gondor have a better chance of qualifying for the bracket stage). Of those who chose to go to Pelargir, some ten thousand Gondorians bought tickets for the game between Tirion and the Sea instead. While it was possible to watch both matches live (Minas Tirith vs Nargothrond ended twenty to thirty minutes before the kick-off of the Sea vs Tirion), it would be a tricky proposition, considering the distance between the two stadiums and the traffic jams that came with an Arda Cup matchday. Besides, the price of a ticket for Tol Eressëa’s mobile stadium almost was twice the cost of a ticket of the same class for Pelargir Park, and only a few could afford tickets to both games.

The other half of the stadium was composed of various Nargothrond fan groups. There were the Noldor from the House of Finarfin, who either travelled by land or aboard the floating isle (aside from the stadium, Tol Eressëa Mobile also carried lodgings for guests as well as restaurants and tourist shops.) A small band from Angband who made the journey to Pelargir to cheer Glaurung on were looked upon with suspicion, while a larger party of Bëorians who were there to support Barahir, Baran, and their founder, were treated with much respect by the Third Age Edain.

On the pitch, the players of Minas Tirith showed similar respect to their forefathers. Bëor’s hand was heartily shaken by all eleven players, and Telumehtar Umbardacil managed to secure Barahir’s promise to exchange shirts with him once the game was over.



Now, the game: the first twenty minutes was a midfield battle for possession, with the two teams hardly creating any scoring chance. With Glaurung dropping deeper to become a fourth central midfielder, Nargothrond outnumbered the Stewards in the centre of the pitch; they saw more of the ball and kept it for longer periods of time. After twenty minutes of chasing after the ball in vain, Minas Tirith conceded the midfield and formed two banks of four in front of their penalty area. They hoped to use Nargothrond’s high defensive line to their advantage, playing long passes behind the defence that Boromir I could run on to.

But Nargothrond were successful with pressing from the front, recovering the ball quickly after conceding possession. Minas Tirith gained just a few chances to test Nargothrond’s high line. Whenever Minas Tirith got a ball behind Baran and Arminas, Orodreth rushed out of his box to claim most of them. The best Minas Tirith chance of the half came during the thirty-third minute, when Boromir I got a foot in a long ball from Ecthelion II, but hit his shot directly at Orodreth’s face.

As for Nargothrond’s chances, the right flank looked promising. Cirion, like all Men of pure-blooded Númenórean descent, was athletically fit, beyond that of normal Men, but Gwindor made him look like a turtle, driving past him at will and forcing Ecthelion II to cover for him. This left Eärnur all alone to deal with Finrod and the threat of Glaurung, Nienor, and Finduilas running past him. Thankfully, the midfield protection offered by Tarondor and Eärnil II held fast.

Shortly before half time, Gwindor went on another flank run, easily beating Cirion again and forcing Tarondor to get between him and the goal. Gwindor played a short pass to Glaurung, who turned on Eärnil II. Tarondor recovered too late, and he was booked for tugging at the dragon’s tail to stop his charge. Glaurung laughed mightily at the Man’s cheek and shared a fist bump with him as the half-time whistle was blown.

During the second half, with Tarondor more reserved due to fear of a second yellow card, Glaurung became a bigger threat on the attack. His turn and tailer barely a minute after restart was blocked by Eärnur and kicked clear by his father. The clearance fell only as far as Finduilas, who fired a lateral pass to Barahir, charging from Nargothrond’s back line. With Finrod at the near post, Gwindor at the far post, and Glaurung romping through the middle, the Minas Tirith defenders were unsure who to guard. Who will he cross for? A simple shoulder turn by Glaurung caught the eye of the defence—was he angling for a piledriving tailer? But Barahir’s low cross only went as far as Finrod—the King of Nargothrond stabbed it in past a distracted Denethor II.

A goal down, Minas Tirith could no longer afford to sit deep and wait for counterattacking opportunities. They were forced to go forward, giving Glaurung even more space between the lines. He became the focal point of Nargothrond’s offence, the way it was meant to be last year. He snouted in a Gwindor cross around the hour mark, then pounded in a Finduilas through ball in the seventy-third minute. Half of Pelargir Park were silenced by the dragon’s rampage, and Nargothrond played keep ball the rest of the way. Minas Tirith no longer had the energy to chase after the ball, and contented themselves with taking it easy in preparation for their next two games. Their remaining opponents didn’t feature a speedster and a ferocious beast, after all, and they might have a better chance against them. At least, that’s what they believed that day.

Minas Tirith 0-3 Nargothrond
GOALS:
52, 0-1 Finrod (Barahir)
59, 0-2 Glaurung (Gwindor)
73, 0-3 Glaurung (Finduilas)

Total Shots
12-25
Shots On Target
4-10

YELLOW CARDS:
1-0
MTI: Tarondor
NGR: -

Tirion vs The Sea, Tol Eressëa Mobile Stadium

And now all eyes were on the River Anduin. The silhouette of the moving island was illuminated by fireworks and the light of buildings of Avallónë. Those who stood upon the shores of the river could hear a roar from the stadium, a scream of celebration, a cry of awe. No one who saw the mobile stadium remained unmoved by it.

Inside the arena, the ten thousand Gondorians who bought tickets for the game were praising Eru that they did. Tol Eressëa didn’t have the affluence of Menegroth, nor the grandness of Armenelos, but . . . the history. The grass that covered the pitch has been the same one upon which the first international game of football was played. It never grew too tall, nor did it wither even during the darkest hour of the Blessed Realm. The soil beneath it never got chipped; it never got too dry, or too muddy. It was just right for football. Football was meant to be played upon it.

Then the players of Tirion and the Sea walked into the pitch, and even the most callous Gondorian was moved to reverence. There was the Vala Ulmo, one of the Powers of the World, and with him were his Maiar and some of the greatest among the Men of the West. And on the other side, Finwë, High-King of the Noldor, and with him were some of the most famous names of the Eldar. Football was meant to be played here, and they were meant to play football here. At least, that’s what they thought.



The game, of course, was meant to start. Tirion moved forward with intent, and the Sea defended resolutely. The ball moved quickly, from Rúmil to Aredhel to Mahtan, testing, probing the defence of Ulmo and looking for a foothold, a patch of space from which to start things. But the two holding midfielders, Voronwë and Tar-Ciryatan, were smart to occupy those spaces. Time and time again, Tirion’s advance was rebuffed, and the ball went back to their midfielders, and the dance began anew.

Mahtan, Tirion’s left midfielder, preferred to play through the centre, so to offset this loss of width the left-back Caranthir moved forward to provide attacking options. But in one sequence of play, he was caught too high up the pitch when Mahtan misplaced a pass to Aredhel. Voronwë took possession, scanned the pitch, and found Tar-Minastir making a run behind Caranthir. The Elf from Gondolin sent a long diagonal towards him. Caranthir tried to run back, and Amras closed in on Tar-Minastir. But with his first touch Tar-Minastir sent a cross-field pass to a running Tar-Aldarion on the opposite wing. Easily beating Irimë to the byline, he sent a cross into the box; his grandfather Vëantur, charging from the midfield, beat Amrod and met it with a thundering header for the opener.

The Tirion faithful groaned, while the supporters of the Sea let out a thunderous cheer. Ulmo’s defence was enough to keep even FC Valinor scoreless; surely, a one-goal lead would be enough for them to win.

Finwë, however, was not fazed. He whispered a few words to Aredhel and dropped back closer to the midfield; Tirion returned to the formation they used against Angband.

There were doubts as to the efficacy of Finwë’s strategy among the more tactically astute sections of the crowd. Tirion were already enjoying a considerable possession advantage over the Sea (54-46), so what was he improving by being further away from goal?

It was space. Football was a battle for space: which part of the pitch would you give your opponents? Which part of the pitch is the opposition giving you? Can you create chances from that space?

Aredhel was left alone to battle with Ulmo and Ossë, but now Finwë had a little more space to win headers and play penetrative passes to Aredhel and Mahtan from the midfield. Neither Voronwë nor Tar-Ciryatan could do anything, as he simply outleaped them to headers and outmuscled them on the turn. After Mahtan came close to bagging the equaliser with a stunning volley of a Finwë flick-on (requiring a superb reaction save from Hyarmendacil), Ulmo himself stepped up from the defence to mark Finwë. This turned out to be a mistake—Finwë flicked on another Rúmil cross for Aredhel. The White Lady of the Noldor had too much space to pick her shot, and she sent a peach of a curler past Hyarmendacil. The Sea’s defences were finally breached, and Tirion got their equaliser with a little over half the game left to play.

But Tirion did not press their advantage. After the break, both teams played more conservatively: Caranthir no longer moved forward to join in on the attack, and concentrated on his defensive duties, and Ulmo left Finwë alone in the midfield, concentrating on shutting down Aredhel and Mahtan’s runs from the midfield. Both teams still managed to create chances, but they were long prayers or tame shots easily snuffed by the goalkeepers. Neither team changed gears, seemingly happy with a draw at this point.

The Sea 1-1 Tirion
GOALS:
24, 1-0 Vëantur (Tar-Aldarion)
42, 1-1 Aredhel (Finwë)

Total Shots
12-13
Shots On Target
4-4

YELLOW CARDS:
1-1
SEA: Tar Meneldur
TIR: Amras

------------ W-D-L Pts GD
Nargothrond  1-0-0  3  +3
The Sea      0-1-0  1  0
Tirion       0-1-0  1  0
Minas Tirith 0-0-1  0  -3

W-D-L: win-draw-loss
GD: goal difference

[Nogrod]

Group C @ Doriath


If one would have to name the hottest game of the first round there would be perhaps two or three candidates; perhaps Erebor vs. Wilderland in Group E with the full weight of the importance of the game and the flare of the both attacking sides, or maybe Angband vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth in Group G with two extremely tough teams fighting it out. But the AKM would choose the game between Hithlum and Real Valinor even if one could argue that the two teams are favourites to qualify from their group anyway so it’s not that much a game of death as such.

Real Valinor are the champions from the last season and they have shown in the friendlies that even without Arien they are serious contenders to renew their title. Let’s remind our readers for just one single fact: last season Real Valinor lost to FC Valinor twice with no uncertain terms but went on to claim the championship with some confidence. This year they draw with FC Valinor in the friendlies – so one could say that they are a better team this year than the last year… and they were already champions last season. Go figure that.

Hithlum on the other hand has put in all their financial resources to fight seriously for the Cup this year and their offence with Túrin and Beleg looks the most intimidating – especially with Hador rising to his level in the friendlies (2+0 in two games) and the ever-dangerous Húrin parked in the middle of the offence. With a Balrog and Hador’s sons in the defence it should not be up to their defence either. Although many hold Huor to be a questionmark at the goal as he skipped the last season. But with a man like him you know that even his performance on a bad day would be a great achievement to a lesser one.

And it is clear neither team is prepared to lose a single game – even if some analysts hold Hithlum’s two draws in the friendlies a discouraging omen telling they are not up to the task this year either – while Real Valinor’s beating of Valimar confidently 3-1 is to many a sign of the sheer brilliance of the team. But the difference between the teams would be soon found out.

“The Cave” was full already for the afternoon game as everyone wanted to see the two teams included in the short list of the “most talked” teams of the tournament (add to them AC Beleriand, T-I-G and FC Valinor and there we kind of have it). Tulkas and Hador led their teams to the field showing great respect to each other following the fair play theme Menegroth had created for this year’s tournament. The Breelanders in the audience stood in awe for the nobility and both inner and visible strength radiating from the men of old while the elves recognized their partners of the days gone by with accepting embrace, but with the entrance of the Valar, Maiar and the noblest Noldor everyone just held their breath. The spectators knew they were witnessing something out of ordinary indeed.



The game itself was just as intense and high-quality everyone had hoped for. Both offences created beautiful combinations and chances at scoring but to counter that both defences played superbly forcing the shots from difficult angles allowing minimum reaction time to the strikers. During the first half an hour Real Valinor had probably a little more of the possession but Hithlum had probably an inch better chances at scoring – when Miriel suddenly exploded the stadium with a beautiful cross-run sweeping in Nerdanel’s inch-accurate pass from the air past Huor – leaving him standing in awe to the exact finishing of the great striker.

Many people seem to have forgotten that Nerdanel and Miriel had their dynamic duo already before Arien joined them – and now they showed why they are so feared by the opposite defences all over Arda. That was just fantastic.
After the goal allowed Hithlum put in a new gear and you could see the seriousness of their effort from Túrin’s game – he, and all Hithlum players, were chasing every ball, fighting for every possession to the end – and his eyes, which were shining steel and determination. And the sudden flame of Hithlum forced even a team like Real Valinor to draw back a bit to better contain the massive attack Hithlum was bringing forth.

Real Valinor managed to keep Hithulm at bay most of the time, even quite comfortably at times. Nienna was superb cutting passes into the box while Nahar and Ingwinion took care of Túrin and Beleg – and even Tilion worked hard in the defence running after anyone who was looking dangerous. But the sheer determination and number of chances Hithlum created led to the inevitable result.

Hithlum scored the game even just one minute before the half-time!

Hador gave a pass diagonally backwards from the edge of the box and while the defenders were busy closing any further passing-lines Húrin ran for the ball and booted such a swerving boomer into the upper-left corner of the goal even Tulkas had no chance of picking it.

Whether Hithlum had just exhausted themselves with the dynamic rage of the last fifteen minutes of the first half and never recovered or whether they were too happy to draw or whether it was something else no one will probably ever know. But the second half was just a Real Valinor show.

It was a different game on the second half. Real Valinor was in the driver’s seat commanding both the tempo and where the game was played. Moving the ball quick from player to player exhausted the Hithlum squad who were always running a bit late after it.

So if it was determination that decided the latter part of the first half it was confidence that decided the second half.

Balrog #5 was forced to take a yellow card when Oromë was breaking through into the box with the ball and the giant was just late. From the ensuing free-kick just inches behind the edge of the box Oromë himself made one of the greatest goals of the first round sure to end up in most of the YouTube compilations. He booted a cannon of a shot that swereved around the wall put up by Hithlum and before Huor realised it was not going wide after all it was too late for him to react as the ball went in hitting the post first.

Real Valinor was not finished with claiming the lead once more but continued dominating the field leaving little or no room for any counterplay ti Hithlum – even if they had a few controlled attacks and Túrin’s one fiery shot missed the post only about half a meter. But Real was the team calling the shots now – and it was no wonder they actually scored yet one more time about ten minutes before the end.

This time they just saw the defences open with criss-crossing passes finally leaving Nessa to just move the ball into the empty net from one meter’s distance. And many were just amazed of the energy Tilion had rushing to the last pass – it seemed to be true he flourishes immediately when he’s not just following Arien everywhere.

Sad for team Hithlum but in the last ten minutes of the game Real Valinor was actually closer of making it 4-1 than Hithlum was to cut the lead into 2-3. It had been an unexpectedly uneven game – even if some reporters were nodding their faces knowledgeably with the “what did I say” –look. Happily those few would be soo very wrong in their next predictions that no one cared.

Hithlum 1-3 Real Valinor
on target 5-9
tot shots 14-22
GOALS:
*29, 0-1 Miriel (Nerdanel)
*44, 1-1 Hurin (Hador)
*61, 1-2 Orome
*79, 1-3 Nessa (Tilion)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Hithlum- Arroch, Balrog#5
*RealV- Nienna



If the team Hithlum can be called a kind of an family-affair the same could be said of Doriath as well with Elwë and Melian and then their grandchild Dior with Elwing – and their forefathers and daughter – form the core of the team aided by a few of Elwë’s trusted elves. But talking about quality and family: many missed Beren and Lúthien.

Shire-Bree on the other hand looked more like a mötley crew of vagabonds and strangers walking into the bright lights of the Menegroth Stadium: a wizard, a great white horse, three Nazgûl, a beast, a couple of hobbits and men (of which one didn’t look exactly sporty)…

So when the hometeam took the reins into their hands with their organized play, most of the homeside-fans relaxed and cheered approvingly for a nice evening of football. But not everyone was happy with the seeming grip Doriath had on the game – for Gandalf was tricksy and with the two Nazgûl up front (and that odd but sturdy hobbit Bandobras Took) they were actually able to sneak in chances of scoring every now and then – and even if Doriath held the ball most of the time Shire-Bree did actually produce the better chances. And as the first half went on it became quite evident even to the blindest home-fans: these oddballs were challenging Doriath seriously – and that instead of a walk in the park they faced a serious struggle to win the game.

Towards the end of the first half the Shire Bree was actually calling the shots while the hometeam just tried to keep the ball out from the scoring-distance. It had so turned over that it was the Doriath fans and players who were relieved with the half-time whistle.

But Doriath-team had done some serious soul-searching during the half-time and came to the second period with a totally new energy. They were confident but not over-confident, playing now with a full 100% concentration. And they scored a goal in three minutes with Elwë sliding in a perfect pass by Mablung! And the crowds regained their confidence once again.

And it was obvious the second half was a much better football than the first as now both teams were playing seriously – and to the astonishment of the homecrowds it was an even game indeed. At times Doriath was able to press the game down to the Shire-Bree side but then on another the quests took the initiative and forced the game to the other end.

But the farther the clock ticked the more careful or unrisky game Doriath started to play to save their lead – and the more they left room for Shire-Bree to manouver. With Khamûl hitting the post less than ten minutes before the end the homeside fans went on gnawing their fingernails.
From the next attack Elwing managed to cut the releasing pass by Gandalf to Nazgûl #6 and Melian took care of heading the ensuing corner far away to the midfield.

On the next Elwing jumped in front of the crossing by Bandobras and Nimloth swept the ball away from Ferny’s feet from the throw-in.

Five minutes before the full-time Daeron slided late on Butterbur’s ankle giving Shire-Bree a free kick.

All three Nazgûl and Gandalf gathered around the ball at the 35 meters the kick would be given while Dior was organising the defences in to a wall where both Gildor and Shadowfax were trying to fit in.

Finally the referee blew his whistle and all the three Nazgûl and Gandalf rushed forwards at the same time. The Nazgûl were faster and while Khamûl was coming straigth towards the wall of defenders (and Shadowfax and Gildor who were pushing the defenders aways as hard as they could), Nazgûl #6 was rushing past the wall from left and #4 from right.

There was a moment of confusion and whilst most defenders tried to stand the center to stop Khamûl, Shadowfax and Gildor, Galadhon and Nellas fell to the sides to shadow the Nazgûls rushing forwards from the sides - and with Gandalf’s kick finally in the air and flying towards left and Nazgûl #6 Daeron also left his place from the edge of the wall to pursue the beast.

And there was the trick! Nazgûl #6 had no intention to possess the ball or put it forwards – even if Shadowfax, Khamûl and Gildor were making leaps forwards – and made Melian, Elwë and other defenders to fall in with them effectively breaking the defensive wall. But the Nazgûl just played it back diagonally to Gandalf who had meanwhile ran forwards and a little right to gain a free line to shoot – and with the combination of Dior concentrating on the other end of the goal and the power of Gandalf’s shot the ball went into the net just beside the right post before Dior had a chance to even try and stop it.

The Shire-Bree fans were exploding with righteous-joy while the homecrowds were silenced for good. It was four minutes of the game left and the game was even.

And it ended that way even if both teams made a decent try to change it at the last minutes – but it was clear that both teams were afraid of losing more they were keen in winning the game at the last minutes.

So Shire-Bree had forced the hostsinto a draw and no one could say the result was unfair.


Doriath 1-1 ShireBree United
on target 3-5
tot shots 9-12
GOALS:
*48, 1-0 Elwe (Mablung)
*86, 1-1 Gandalf (Nazgul #6)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Doriath-
*SBUnt- Ferny, Khamul

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Stadium on the Rock
Inter Beleriand vs Dwarves United

Banners of white, gold, and red, the colours of the royal house of Gondolin, flew upon the walls of the Stadium on the Rock, commemorating the return of the city’s ruler. Despite the fact that Gondolin’s match wouldn’t take place until evening, thousands of locals flocked to the stadium to watch Turgon play for Inter Beleriand. Their king was a wise ruler and a talented player, they said to each other. It’s just that his philosophy didn’t mesh well with the team’s style. They would be glad to support him—if he’s not playing against the home team, of course.

Dwarves United players entered the pitch to much applause. Aulë was still the Vala most beloved of the Noldor, and Galadriel, Celebrimbor, and Azaghâl were respected names. Then the Inter Beleriand players walked out of the tunnel, and the stadium exploded with cheers. And lastly, with the build-up of a returning hero, Turgon’s name was announced over the speakers, and the crowd replied with a roar that reverberated throughout the city.



Turgon was fortunate that Inter dominated possession for the first few minutes of the game, so moved was he by the home crowd’s warm reception that he looked a bit out of it at the beginning. Dwarves United had more midfielders (3 vs Inter’s 2), and their trio of Gimli, Fíli, and Kíli were technically better than Hunthor and Forweg, but they preferred to play on the break, whereas Inter felt the need to take control of tie so that they could get a leg up over their potential qualification rivals Gondolin. Beren moved inside from the left to be a third central midfielder, and Lúthien took up a more advanced position, turning Inter into a 3-4-1-2 when in possession. Luckily, their side of the pitch had the less attacking full-back Durin, meaning the only player of concern was right midfielder Gamil Zirak. On the other wing, Haleth played a more disciplined role, keeping an eye on Celebrimbror’s movement and often leaving right-back Baragund to deal with Telchar’s forward runs.

The first half ended with little incident. Dwarf U’s defence shut down all possible avenues of Inter’s attack, and Inter could not commit to an all-out attack due to fear of Dwarf U’s counterattacks. Legolas clearly received instructions to ignore link-up play—he latched on to passes from the defence and attacked Inter’s defence all alone. For most parts, Gorlim and Haldad limited his chances, but his pace was enough to give them fits. Their best chance of the half came from a sublime Aulë long ball behind Inter’s defence. Legolas outpaced the centre-backs and rounded Turgon. It took Baragund’s impressive goal-line clearance to keep Inter from going into the break a goal behind.

The second half began with another Aulë interception and long pass, another Legolas solo run, and another nervy defensive stop from Inter. Haldad got a leg in Legolas’s on-target shot, sending it out of bounds and giving Dwarf U a corner. Gamil Zirak took the corner kick, and Aulë met it at the near post to with a powerful header towards the top corner. Turgon leapt as high as he could and got a finger in to nudge it towards the crossbar. The crowd applauded their king’s effort wildly.

After the first few minutes, the game settled down and Inter slowly imposed their control on the game. Fingon shuttled between attack and midfield, giving Inter four passing options in the centre of the pitch and providing more creative outlets (Beren had been too easily shut down by the sons of Dís.) In the sixty-fifth minute, Beren, Lúthien, and Fingon formed a triangle down Dwarf U’s left flank, passing their way through Kíli, Gamil Zirak, and Durin. Beren got to the byline and cut the ball back for Maedhros. Aulë had been paying too much attention to the proceedings at the left flank that he failed to track Maedhros’s movement. The eldest son of Fëanor rounded Azaghâl and fired low past Galadriel for the lead.

After a goal Inter Beleriand were a little more relaxed. They could now start playing to their strengths, returning to their preferred counterattacking style, knowing that Dwarves United would be forced to commit more players forward. Barely two minutes after the opener Hunthor cleared a Dwarf U corner and Beren took the ball in stride and outsprinted Fíli. Kíli, Azaghâl, and Durin were all that stood between Beren and Galadriel, but the latter two were occupied by Maedhros and Lúthien’s runs. Beren jinked past Kíli, who fell to the ground trying to keep up with him. He reached out for Beren’s leg to trip him, and the referee rushed towards him, red card in hand, for denying a clear goalscoring opportunity. Kíli apologised to Beren and shook his hand before leaving the pitch.

Dwarves United player were obviously deflated after Kíli’s sending off. They were a man down and a goal down, and the crowds were firmly behind Inter. In the seventy-sixth minute, Haleth took on Gamil Zirak then surprised Celebrimbor by cutting inside on his weaker left foot. He fired a clumsly looping cross that looked to sail wide, but Fingon, who easily outleapt Azaghâl, managed to nudge it goalward towards the far corner, just out of Galadriel’s reach. The people at the stadium were silent for a beat, but then cheered wildly at the awkward-looking goal. Now Dwarf U was in a deep pickle: two goals behind and a man down. They elected to concede the field to Inter, conserving their energy for the next two matches. Inter silently accepted Dwarf U’s surrender and took their foot off the pedal for the remainder of the match.

Inter Beleriand 2-0 Dwarves United
GOALS:
65, 1-0 Maedhros (Beren)
76, 2-0 Fingon (Haleth)

Total Shots:
11-14
Shots On Target
5-5

YELLOW CARDS:
2-0
INB: Baragund, Forweg
DWU: -

RED CARDS:
DWU: Kíli (67, straight red)

AC Beleriand vs Gondolin

And now, the main event. AC Beleriand managed to bring a strong contingent into the hidden city, and they easily scooped up all the thirty-thousand tickets allocated for the away side. And of the ten thousand tickets for the neutral, they hoped that the Inter supporters would also support their fellow Beleriand team, although Turgon’s influence might tilt them towards supporting the home team instead. There was, however, nothing they could do against the forty-five thousand-strong home crowd. They were banging drums and singing ‘Gondolin, pride of the Noldor,’ at the top of their lungs.



The game soon started, and the home team fed on the crowd’s energy. They also remembered last year’s humiliating defeat. Salgant, especially, was like a different player—he was more judicious in his tackling, keener to stay on his feet than to launch into reckless two-footed slide tackles, but he remained dogged in chasing his mark around the pitch—last year it was Beren; this time it was the Fiery Boot himself, Fëanor.

The first half was a disjointed affair, a battle of tempo. AC Beleriand wanted to slow the game down, play the ball on the floor and gradually work it up the pitch towards their attacking four, whereas Gondolin played a very direct game and concentrated on getting the ball into the box as quickly as possible. Both teams had a decent number of chances, but none of them were clear ones. Duilin and Maeglin frustrated Ulrad and Denethor, keeping them from playing easy passes towards Fëanor and the wide players. On the other side, AC Bel defenders Imlach and Rochallor bracketed Gondolin’s forwards well, and full-backs Fingolfin and Balrog #4 checked the runs of Gondolin wingers Idril and Elemmakil.

Towards the end of the first half, AC Beleriand abandoned their patient build-up play and started launching long balls towards Gondolin’s box, disorienting the home team’s back line. Fëanor had the best chance of the half—he slipped Salgant’s mark and took a long pass from Imlach. He jinked past Penlod and Aranwë, but Rog snuffed his side-footed shot easily.

AC Beleriand finally scored the opener three minutes after the restart. With a burst of pace, Denethor managed to evade Maeglin’s marking long enough to fire a long diagonal to the right of Gondolin’s box. Angrod and Eöl dashed past their markers towards the ball, while Fëanor made a run towards the penalty area to draw Salgant and Penlod away. The Dark Elf took the ball with top of his foot, making it bounce up, and then launched himself into an overhead kick towards the top-left corner of the goal. The AC Beleriand supporters stood up and roared, while the neutral fans applauded Eöl’s effort. They have taken the lead in impressive fashion.

Gondolin pushed forward with renewed ferocity, but they were unable to make headway against AC Bel’s defence. More often than not, they had to get back quickly on defence after an attacking attempt; as soon as they lost possession, AC Bel played the ball forward quickly against Gondolin’s disorganised defence. During one such sequence, AC Bel gained a four-on-five opportunity, pitting their front four against Gondolin’s back four and Salgant. Aegnor managed to gain a few metres of space in the marking confusion and, after taking Eöl’s backheel pass, shot a fierce drive from fifteen metres out. Rog managed to make a stop; he then leapt after the rebound ahead of a sliding Fëanor. Scanning the field as he stood up, he threw a long overarm pass towards Duilin at the edge of the box, and the Gondolin midfielder sprinted past Denethor and Ulrad. Imlach stepped up to challenge him, but by then Duilin had already spotted Maeglin’s run from the right wing. He slid in a through ball past Imlach and Rochallor, and Maeglin needed just the simplest of tap-ins to put the ball past Marach.

There was less than half an hour left to play, and the mood at the stadium was tense. AC Beleriand had an advantage in possession, but Gondolin’s energy, fuelled by their home crowd, allowed them to play last year’s semifinalists almost evenly. Who will take control of this tie and take all three points?

After a brief huddle that took place while Gondolin celebrated their goal, Fëanor moved higher up the pitch to become a second centre forward, turning AC Bel into a 4-2-2-2 (Angrod and Aegnor were too far ahead of Ulrad and Denethor for them to be a bank of four.) The two wide midfielders were also instructed to send crosses into the box—high crosses when Fëanor was matched against Aranwë, low ones when their captain was marked by the taller Penlod. Twelve minutes before full time, AC Bel’s tactic paid off; Angrod crossed low for Fëanor, and the Fiery Boot easily exploited his quickness advantage to dribble past Penlod. With only the goalkeeper to beat, he curled his shot past Rog for the lead.

Gondolin pressed relentlessly for an equaliser, but, with Fëanor, Angrod, and Aegnor joining Ulrad and Denethor in midfield, AC Bel kept the ball successfully and killed the tie. The home team, however, didn’t surrender until the final whistle, and their supporters appreciated their effort. At least they managed to score a goal against a top defence, and, with their toughest fixture out of the way, they still have a chance to advance.

AC Beleriand 2-1 Gondolin
GOALS:
48, 1-0 Eöl (Denethor)
63, 1-1 Maeglin (Duilin)
78, 2-1 Fëanor (Angrod)

Total Shots:
16-12
Shots On Target:
7-6

YELLOW CARDS:
2-2
ACB: Eöl, Imlach
GDN: Penlod, Salgant

--------------- W-D-L Pts GD
Inter Beleriand 1-0-0  3  +2
AC Beleriand    1-0-0  3  +1
Gondolin        0-0-1  0  -1
Dwarves United  0-0-1  0  -2

W-D-L: win-draw-loss
GD: goal difference

[the phantom]

A Look at Phantasy Competitions
Philip McPhantom, MESPN News

As always there are quite a few folks in Middle-Earth entered in Phantasy Leagues based around this year’s Arda Cup. Of course the rules are slightly different—e.g. in many of the Orc-run leagues yellow cards are actually worth positive points, and Numenorean leagues going a game without being caught flopping or whining is worth a point. But overall the scoring mechanics are similar. So here’s a bit of blanket advice when it comes to picking your squad—and we’ll start with the two most important words.

Matchups matter.

Take a look at the teams your players are going up against. Are you picking a forward or midfielder that is about to battle a highly ranked defense like FC Valinor, Real Valinor, T-I-G, etc.? Then just know that it’s a risky play. Are you choosing a defender that’s about to be attacked by Hithlum, AC Beleriand, Nargothrond, etc.? Then don’t bet on getting points for a shutout. You can’t just pick good players—the opposition is every bit as important a consideration.

Also, you may want to see if you have players on your team that are set to face off against each other. Do you have an offensive player going up against a defender? Well then, it’ll be pretty tough to gain good points from both players.

And finally- what to do about a point train? In other words, if someone is scoring well, do you trade for them and hope they’ll keep going, or stay away because they’re due to fall off? Well honestly that’s a tricky question, but one thing to keep in mind—is that player a frequent strong performer? If a player that doesn’t typically score well goes on a binge, more likely than not they will fall off, whereas if a solid player hasn’t scored well perhaps they're due for a good game. Of course there are exceptions to every rule, but it’s something to keep in mind nonetheless.

Anyway, that’s just a bit of advice for you Phantasy players out there. Here’s hoping you score well!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Group Tables:



Power Rank:

The Power Rank shall return in the next issue of ArdaCup.com Stats Report.


Top Individual Performers:

GOALS + ASSISTS

2+1
Curufin (FC Valinor)

2+0
Scatha (Wilderland)
Glaurung (Nargothrond)

1+1
Irmo (Valimar)
Smaug (Erebor)

0+2
Nazgûl #3 (Wilderland)
Haldir (Anduin)

GOALKEEPING

1. 100% – 5/5 – Turgon (Inter Beleriand)
2. 100% – 4/4 – ShastaWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)
3. 100% – 4/4 – Amroth (Anduin)
4. 100% – 4/4 – Silent Watcher (Mordor)
5. 100% – 4/4 – Orodreth (Nargothrond)
6. 100% – 3/3 – Manwë (Valimar)
7. 100% – 3/3 – Ungoliant (Anfauglith)
8. 100% – 1/1 – Huan (FC Valinor)

[Boromir88]

TTN's Stars (Round 1)
-Boro88

One thing we wanted to add to this year's Arda Cup is the "Star Performances." AKM launced their own "AKM Stars", but they've dropped the concept the past couple years. TTN wanted to add something noticeably different to their phantasy coverage this year, so we've come up with a revised "Stars" concept, and a different methodology from AKM's to highlight the best individual performances every round.

*Disclaimer: TTN's Stars are completely separate from the "star players" when picking phantasy players. This is simply our way of highlighting the top performances from each round. So, if TTN gives One Star to Tar Atanamir, that does not mean Tar Atanamir costs one "*" on your phantasy teams now.


Now here's how TTN has decided to award their stars. We had our field of reporters attending every match in every group and they picked the best players nominating from 2 to 4 for consideration in each match.

We obviously can't award every FW who scored a goal with stars, or every GK who saved 3/3...etc. So our panel deliberated, making cases for why so-and-so should be awarded a star (or why someone should be dropped off the list for this round) and how many stars someone should be awarded. Here is the system for this year.

Top Game performers "One Star" (5 at each position)

Top position performers "Two Star" (2 at each position)

Best Round Performance "Three Star" (One player, position doesn't matter)

Sometimes just scoring a goal or a couple assists isn't going to be good enough when stacked up to other players, so we had to take into account several different factors in coming to the final decisions. Factors included: strength of opponent, strength of victory, impact on the game (a MF scoring a game winning goal with under 10 minutes left is going to carry more weight than a MF scoring a single-goal in a 4-0 blowout for example).

We won't explain every choice made by the panel, but we will try to explain the choices that were the most contentious and debated.

ONE STAR

Goalies
Marach (AC Beleriand)
Ungoliant (Angfauglith)
ShastaWolf (TIG)
Amroth (Anduin)
Silent Watcher (Mordor)

The goalies were pretty much easily agreed on. Manwe was the one left off during the vetting process, because despite saving 3/3, our experts agreed it was against a weak opponent (The Barrow-downs) and other players for Valimar (namely Irmo) had a larger impact on the game.

Defenders
Maglor (FC Valinor)
Barahir (Nargothrond)
Tilion (Real Valinor)
Alatar (Barad-Dur)
Aragorn (Eriador)

A shutout plus an assist from a defender pretty much assured you of catching our attention and thus being awarded with at least one star (Maglor and Barahir). The debate came in when trying to decide if a defender who got the shutout has more impact than a defender who gave up 1 goal, but also contributed with an assist, in most cases we sided with the latter.

Real Valinor allowing only 1-goal against the deadly Hithlum attack, is worthy of notice, and then adding Tilion's key assist in the game it was a no-brainer. The other two were a little more hotly contested, but in the end Alatar's assist in a 1-1 draw was a big result in the game against Gondor. And Aragorn's assist in the 2-1 victory against the Misty Mountains had more impact than Luthien shutting down the pathetic Dwarve's United attack, or the Balrogs from Angfauglith shutting down the equally as bad Imladris attack.

Mid-fielders
Turambar (Gondor)
Nessa (Real Valinor)
Glorfindel (Eriador)
Nazgul #3 (Wilderland)
Nazgul #2 (Mordor)

The toughest choice here was 3 players (Turambar, Glorfindel, and SallyWight) battling it out for essentially 2 spots. Glorfindel's game-winner in the 87th minute held the biggest impact on the game. Where case for SallyWight was stronger opponent and stronger victory. But looking at other TIG performers (Shastawolf and NilpWolf), not that SallyWight's goal had no impact on the game, but just not as large of an impact as those two, nor as large as Glorfindel's game winner. Turambar's goal in the 1-1 draw vs. Barad-dur was also key. Without Turambar's performance, Gondor loses that game.

Forwards
Smaug (Erebor)
Earendil (Havens)
Feanor (AC Belerind)
Ecthelion (Angfauglith)
Ar Pharazon (Armenelos)

Ar Pharazon and Feanor both had late game winners in wins over their opponents. Ecthelion scored the only goal in a crucial result against Imladris. We decided to give the last One Star FW spot to Earendil (Smaug was automatic with its 1+1) because despite Armenelos' staunch guarding and gameplan to try to stop Earendil, they still couldn't and The Havens had Armenelos on the ropes for a significant portion of the game.

TWO STAR

Goalies
Turgon (Inter Beleriand)
Tar Atanamir (Armenelos)

Turgon's 5/5 was the top goalie performance of the round. Tar Atanamir's 5/6 we valued as next best (even over the other goalies who got shut outs) because he did it against a quality offense and the saves were crucial in limiting Earendil to just 1 goal.

Defenders
Fram (Anduin)
NilpWolf (TIG)

Mid-fielders

Irmo (Valimar)
Haldir (Anduin)

Both were the key factors in their team's offense. Both teams had 2-0 victories, and both contributed to each of their teams' goals.

Forwards

Scatha (Wilderland)
Glaurung (Nargothrond)

2 goals each from 2 dragons, they had the top performances amongst the forwards in Round 1.

THREE STAR

The single best performance in Round 1 then goes to...

Curufin, FW for FC Valinor.

Most might say this is not surprising, but it was one of the most contentious debates for our panel in Round 1. Whether to say Curufin had the best performance or Nilpwolf. The wolf's shutout of Angband (the result that probably shocked TTN the most) plus contributing with a goal. Where Curufin's evisceration of Isengard should not have shocked anyone. Still Curufun won out, I mean he should have had a hat-trick and scored 2 goals in a matter of mere minutes which had the game over by half-time for FC Valinor. Performances like Curufin's are the best, no matter the opponent.

[Nogrod]

Group A

First games:
Armenelos vs. The Havens 2-1
Barrow-Downs vs. Valimar 0-2

The Havens vs The Barrow-Downs

Group A is a threeway game and by beating The Havens Armenelos has taken a huge step towards qualification. So it is the Havens’ turn to take the must win over the Barrow-Downs for if they fail in it they can kiss their chances of qualifying good-bye. Now it should be self-evident they will do it but for the Barrow-Wight and Bombadil.

The AKM joins the group of football fans who question the existence of a B-D team as long as it is composed mainly of fictional entities whose only merit is their capability of making lousy jokes and behaving badly. And we hope the AFA would come up with a decent solution of giving the slot to a proper Arda-team the next season.

That said the AKM thinks there is nothing to stop the Havens from winning the game unless Bombadill is awake and willing to play (which we actually hope for fairness-sake he isn’t). For unlike with Valimar there are no Valier to stop him if he suddenly decides to play…

The Havens is actually a pretty tough team and the AKM would see them fighting neck to neck with Valimar for the spot in the qualification. Drawing in the friendlies with this year’s wild card team Inter Beleriand 3-3 and losing to the T-I-G only 1-2 makes them a team one should consider seriously as one to qualify.

If nothing unexpected happens the last round game between The Havens and Valimar will be a real thriller! But before that can take place Havens needs to beat the Barrow-Downs, which the AKM predicts they will.

The AKM predicts: The Havens wins 3-1


Armenelos vs Valimar

Armenelos vs. Valimar will be the hair-rising game of this round. Just think of the historical burden it carries with it and behold! And it will be a very hard one to predict as well.

Now both teams belong to the founding teams of the Arda Cup – and to the first teams to play football in the first place – and still belong to the top ten of the tournament, in the general meaning of the term. Neither though impressed the experts with their friendlies, but yet they both took pretty confident victories from the first round of the group-phase.

To spell that out let’s see their games this year. Armenelos draw 3-3 with the top-quality offence-machine Nargothrond and lost to the serious contenders for the whole Cup AC Beleriand 1-2. Then on the first round of group-play they beat the decently tough team of the Havens 2-1.

Meanwhile Valimar lost to Ulmo’s serious contender-team The Sea 0-1 and got beaten by the flashing Real Valinor 1-3 only to show they still were no pushovers by beating the the Barrow-Downs confidently 2-0.

So looking at the earlier results you might think Armenelos being the slight favourites – and that is the decent deduction. But with team Valimar and Manwê, Namö and Irmö playing nothing is that clear-cut or simple.

Probably one of the toughest games to predict on this round…

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 or Armenelos wins 2-1 (in the situation Arien gets wild Valimar has chances of winning the game, not otherwise)


Group B

First games:
Inter Beleriand vs. Dwarves United 2-1
AC Beleriand vs. Gondolin 2-1

AC Beleriand vs Inter Beleriand

The two Beleriand-teams make it out and while the AC is the obvious big brother when it comes to the success in the footballing-fields Inter seems to have built a very competitive team for this year to challenge their kin and friends.

Now that doesn’t mean AC Beleriand wouldn’t be the favourites to win the game and like last year, leave Inter to fight for the qualification with Gondolin (a fight they lost last season). But Inter did win Doriath and played even with The Havens in the friendlies and then managed the hurdle called the Dwarves United at the first round whose defence many teams fear by scoring two goals.

But looking at the AC Beleriand’s track record & the list of their players brings anyone wishing to see an even game back to the stands: AC Beleriand beat both Armenelos and Anfaughlith 2-1 in the friendlies – like they did with Gondolin on the first round of the group phase.

Long story short: everyone expects AC Beleriand to qualify, with decent reasons, and so the other three teams would only fight it out between themselves for the second position. Inter has beaten Dwarves United and have reason to be content – but as it is possible they need to go on counting goals made and allowed (if they end up in a draw with Gondolin and Dwarves United doesn’t make surprises) so they will be playing defensive trying to contain AC Beleriand -to AC Beleriand a win will do.

The AKM predicts: AC Beleriand wins again 2-1 (or 1-0)


Dwarves United vs Gondolin

Gondolin just needs to win this game against Dwarves United. There is no other way to qualify. Now you might ask why we don’t say Dwarves United needs to win this game? Well they lost already to Inter Beleriand and their chances are pretty low indeed while Gondolin “only” lost to AC Beleriand which is most probably going to qualify anyway.

But that doesn’t mean Dwarves Utd. would be giving up because of that. On the contrary. The AKM thinks Dwarves United will be the pain in the – well you know where – for every other team of this group with it’s tough defences and only teams that can really attack can actually walk over them. AC Beleriand seems to have what it takes to do that – and Inter did that already – so now all the pressure is on Gondolin to show they have it as well… And that is the trick of the game.

So the question becomes, whether Gondolin is able to break those defences for good or not. The good news are that they were able to beat tough-defending Arnor last year 4-0 – the bad news are that the architect and hero of that game for Gondolin Gothmog is no longer playing for them.

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 (or Gondolin wins 1-0)


Group C

First games:
Hithlum vs. Real Valinor 1-3
Doriath vs. Shire-Bree United 1-1


Hithlum vs Shire-Bree United

Hithlum faces a “must-win” and Gandalf would be just too happy to deny it from them as the leading player of the underdogs and the team everyone thought would have no chance standing up against the greater teams of the group. Now their draw with the hosts Doriath has changed the mood somewhat and instead of a walk in the park everyone looks forwards to a fighting team Shire-Bree making it hard for Hithlum.

That said, it is clear Hithlum has the quality and stamina Shire-Bree lacks, even if they have proved themselves able to put up a fight. Gandalf, the three Nazgûls and Shadowfax are quality players and able to challenge the human heroes of team Hithlum (even if the Nazgûl were before the rings far lesser breed of kings than the Hithlum-heroes are). But the rest of the team just isn’t able to carry the day for them. Now there have been somewhat justified concerns about the narrowness of Hithlum’s talent as well – but that, the AKM thinks – is relevant only when we start comparing their eighth or ninth toughest player to those of the Real or FC Valimar or AC Beleriand… and not to these Fernys and Butterburs.

Just remembering their games this year might help put things into perspective. In the friendlies Hithlum draw with both Angband (tough team) and Gondolin (pretty tough team) and then lost round 1 game to Real Valinor (super-tough team). Shire-Bree has won the Barrow-Downs (crap team) and drawn with Anduin (decent team) and then on the first round with Doriath (decent / decent minus -team).

Also none of the teams Shire-Bree has met thus far this year has had a real killer-offence. But Hithlum has that. How will their defence handle it is a question worth asking.

So even if there is this nice idea the underdogs could shake the order of the world the AKM sees Hithlum being overall at such a different level that they will claim their first win of the year – and with the self-confidence thus boosted, who knows how far they will go?

The AKM predicts: Hithlum wins 3-1


Doriath vs Real Valinor

There is one clear conclusion to be made from the first round of Group C: Real Valinor is a plain marvellous team and anyone meeting them will have tough times. With Arien gone there seems to be a half-dozen players ready to fill in to score. So if the defence takes one out, another will make the goal. Bad news to any phantasy-players as it is hard to pick the right one from there, but great news for the team.

After the confident victory over Hithlum it is hard to see Real Valinor challenged for real by any other team of this group unless they just relax too much – which doesn’t sound like a plausible idea regarding the personalities playing for the team – and Tulkas as the one calling the shots in the end.

Doriath craves for a win after the disappointing draw with the Shire-Bree and they have the support of the home-crowds, but they just lack quality to pull out one from this game. And it might be added that the draw they played with the Shire-Bree was only partly following from the goodness of the S-B team – and there was also some real lack of flair and excellence in Doriath’s game – and it looks like the home team will not qulify from this group.

Anyway, this is one of the round’s most clear games.

The AKM predicts: Real Valinor wins 2-0 (3-1)


Group D

First games:
Isengard vs. FC Valinor 0-4
Barad-Dûr vs. Gondor 1-1

Barad-Dur vs Isengard

With Barad-Dûr and Gondor drawing their first round match it is then time for Isengard to make their claim for the other qulification-position in this group meeting Barad-Dûr. But unless FC Valinor means to beat the other two teams with such ugly numbers the Isengard-start wasn’t the best one. And lets face it: who would bet on Saruman against Sauron?

One could make a hypothetical case for Isengard by looking at the friendlies and stating that they had a caliber tougher opponents and only lost decentlyish (losing only 1-2 to Wilderland is actually prettu good for a weaker team) whereas Barad-Dûr didn’t convince in their own friendlies (a 0-0 draw with Arnor isn’t the best possible result from a team that aspires to go far in this tournament).

But still. Even if Barad-Dûr isn’t exactly the favourites to go far in the tournament Isengard seems to have little or nothing to throw against their reasonably strong defence.

The AKM predicts: Barad-Dür wins 2-0 (or possibly 2-1)


Gondor vs FC Valinor

The result of the game depends mostly on the attitude of FC Valinor. If they want to play with full strength and give their best there is probably nothing Gondor could mount against them and the game will end something like 6-0.

But that is not probable. FC Valinor got venting some of the steam out making the confident win over Isengard and can now either get some rest from pressures or practise their gameplans – and as Curufin has gotten his confidence back it seems he has nothing to especially show-off this time.

So the only possibility this might turn out an interesting game is if FC Valinor has a total attitude problem and think they can just walk with half-pace, score a few goals and the go home looking for the qualifiers. If that happens, Gondor’s organized team-play might frustrate them and then who knows with a lucky breakthrough by Anarion or Eldacar?

Then again, looking at the roster of FC Valinor it’s hard to see them as a team who would come to the pitch half-heartedly. But it is hard to see them playing with full-effort the whole 90 minutes either. THE script they probably wish to execute is making a few goals and then sitting back making sure the game is won.

Like the other game in this group, this looks like pretty much settled already as to who wins it, but with what kind of a score?

The AKM predicts: FC Valinor’s game-plan holds and they win 3-1 (2-0)


Group E

First games:
Eriador vs. Misty Mountains 2-1
Erebor vs. Wilderland 3-3

MistyMts vs Wilderland

After their pretty mediocre show at the friendlies Misty Mountains made a fresh performance in their game against Eriador and thus made themselves a bit more serious contender for the qualification. But fighting for the second qualification spot against both Erebor and Wilderland looks like a bit too tough a project for them.

Misty Mountains looks actually like a b-class version of the two other teams of the group. They all like to play rough and aggressive and outscore their opponents but whereas both Erebor and Wilderland have quality to actually pull that off Misty Monutains just falls short of it.

Wilderland needs the three points from here and it needs them bad. But the problem is that Misty Mountains defences would look like suited into denying them. Just think of the following: Gwaihir taking off the Nazgûl, Caradhras blocking the slow and unwinged Scatha, Watcher keeping it’s eye on Thranduil and William just blocking the first elves with its size.

But how many of you would betting on that scenario to work in the end – especially as Imin already showed he can score in the first game?

On the other end the ents should be able to hold Azog and Narvi at bay but Durin’s Bane will be a real problem – and it will mean the Misty Mountains will score. But Thranduil and the elves will still outscore Misty Mountains.

The AKM predicts: Wilderland wins 3-1 (3-2)


Erebor vs Eriador

Looking at the last year and the teams in paper this year it would seem Eriador is one of the top contenders to reach the final stages of the tournament once again this year. But somehow the AKM has been – and is – sceptical about their success unless they really show how they play first. If they clear this group with clean stats then yes, the AKM will give them a thumbs up, but before that we will be quite reserved indeed.

And the reason is simple: they haven’t impressed us yet.

Yes, it is not their style to beat the opposing team 6-0 if 1-0 is enough. And yes they can score when they wish to (like they beat the B-D 3-0 in the friendlies – or Gondolin 3-1 last year). But this year they have only won Anduin (decent team) 1-0 and the B-D (crap) 3-0 – and they didn’t impress with their win 2-1 over Misty Mountains on the first round even if you could say the Misty Mts. is a better team some people might think.

If one wishes to think about Eriador’s chances in this tournament they’d need to produce results against teams like Real or FC Valinor, or AC Beleriend, or the T-I-G, or… and there is nothing to show they are able to do that. And the AKM remains sceptical unless they play one tough game and show what they are made of this year.

That said Erebor is kind of a tough opponent to Eriador. The last year’s fourth is a considerable team even if most analysts agree it has weakened from the last year – and losing Gwaihir and Thranduil is exactly that, weakening of the team. Also, the last year they beat Wilderland in the group phase but this year they draw the game. ‘nuff said.

But still, their offence will finally give a preliminary test to Eriador’s overpaid defences (the AKM still thinks the signing of Aragorn and Arwen with 10 million each was a a bad move sportswise even if it felt nice to Elrond).

A lot will depend on how Smaug will fare against the Eriador defences – and in the last instance against Elrond. Nazgûl #7 will have no frightening effect whatsoever against Eriador’s defences and both Bolg and Bard will have hard times trying to outwit Gil-Galad, Aragorn, Arwen and Asfaloth.

But the real question is how confidently Glorfindel and Isildur can play against the eagles – and Beorn at the goal – and do Arveleg and NogWight have what it takes to support them when needed…

The AKM predicts after a lot of to and fro: Eriador wins 2-1 (3-2)


Group F

First games:
Minas Tirith vs. Nargothrond 0-3
The Sea vs. Tirion 1-1


Minas Tirith vs Tirion

Minas Tirith was facing an uphill battle in this group to begin with and then losing to Nargothrond 0-3 didn’t exactly make their situation any easier. To put it bluntly they basically have to beat both The Sea and Tirion to qualify now. And after they lose to Tirion on this coming round it is then clear they will not be qualifying.

Tirion in turn seems to have the bad karma to be always put in a group that has some relatively tough competition. But after their ill luck of being in the same group with both Real and FC Valinor and Armenelos last year they can consider this group a piece of cake – and they would truly deserve to qualify this year. And they have it in their own hands. Now they just have to pick that cake-piece.

But that may also require beating Minas Tirith with as big numbers Nargothrond did it just to be on the safe side – so Tirion will not go for this game intending only to win. They intend to win big.

Will they do that?

Drawing with The Sea gave them the keys. Now they may have some problems with really strong defences like Angband (they drew 1-1 in the friendlies) but Minas Tirith has nothing of the sort Angband has to offer. Then again, if they could score two goals behind Gondolin, scoring at least that much should be no problem against Minas Tirith.

The AKM predicts: Tirion wins 2-0 (3-0)


Nargothrond vs The Sea

Now the Sea might just have a problem. Keeping the scores low and accepting draws might just mean they are going to stay in the group phase with the offensive powerhouse Nargothrond and a very effective Tirion team there to beat the fourth team of the group with bigger numbers the Sea will…

So with a draw with Tirion already under their belt it probably has dawned to Ulmo they can’t afford to draw with Nargothrond any more – or then they need to put up some real fireworks against Minas Tirith.

But Nargothrond will have none of that. They count on their offensive power and will give The Sea a run for their money. And so it will be a real thriller indeed! One of the best defences against one of the toughest offences fight it out – and the proze for the winner is nothing less but a pretty good chances of qualifying (for Nargothrond it would actually be a safe qualification if they win).

For the stat-freaks there is an intereting piece of information: while Nargothrond has made eight goals in their three games this year (two friendlies and one group-game) The Sea has meanwhile only given up one. The opposite numbers are interesting as well: Nargothrond has allowed four goals while The Sea has scored two.

One of the hardest to predict this round…

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 (or Nargothrond wins 1-0)


Group G

First games:
Anfaughlith vs. Imladris 1-0
Angband vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth 0-2

Imladris vs Tol-In-Gaurhoth

Tol-In-Gaurhoth made quite a spectacular show of their skills and stamina in their first game against Angband – with the restrictions on how many werewolves there can be eased and with a couple of sharp sign-ins they have reached back to the level they used to play years ago. And that spells trouble for Imladris.

If the T-I-G doesn’t win the game with at least two-goal difference the AKM thinks they’re showing a soft spot somewhere – or then they will just be guilty of playing it lazy.

Now that is a possibility – that the werewolves just walk around and hit one ball in – or if Imladris should score by chance before them – they get enraged and miss their chance for the clear sheet. But that is only a possibility – and too probable one.

On the other hand, with a win the werewolf-pack has a chance to nail their qualification in this game and they’d probably wish to do that and – knowing that the number two of this group will most probably meet AC Beleriand in the first qualification round – they are not that crazy to try their luck if they can avoid such an opponent in their first qualification-game.

So the T-I-G has the team, the skills, the toughness and the reason to beat Imladris – and that is exactly what they are going to do.

The AKM predicts: T-I-G wins 3-0


Angband vs Anfauglith

Now the game between Angband and Anfaughlith is a tougher one. Melkor and Ungoliant have a mutual history – and they have fought it out before. If Melkor’s Angband would stand against Sauron’s Barad Dûr few would wish to bet on the latter, but Ungoliant’s Anfaughlith is just a few levels tougher a team. And Ungoliant has never been Melkor’s minion…

Looking at the friendlies you could say both had tough opponents. Anband managed to draw with both Hithlum (maybe not so toug a team afterall?) and Tirion (a good team but needs to fight for qualification), whereas Anfaughlith lost narrowly 1-2 against both AC Beleriand (one of the toughest this year) and Nargothrond (with their killer-offence).

One might say Anfaughlith’s first round win over Imladris only 1-0 was a disappointment and might tell of a lack of quality in the team – and that would not be totally unfair a judgement as Anfaughlith hasn’t been a top scoring team at any point. But then again Angband’s humiliating loss to the T-I-G werewolves 0-2 is if possible even a darker shadow hanging over Morgoth’s team.

And looking at the group it will be this game that decides the second qualifier. So neither will back off or give ground to the other even an inch.

It is a game of survival.

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 (or then Angband wins 2-1 with Melkor having a major role in at least one of the goals)


Group H

First games:
Mordor vs. Rohan 2-0
Anduin vs. Arnor 2-0


Arnor vs Mordor

Many media outlets were saying that Arnor would be topping the table while the AKM said Anduin would rule over them – and well that’s what happened. Now Arnor needs to win if they wish to have any hopes of qualification alive – but they might be facing a tougher opponent anyone expected; or then the Rohanians are just an easily scared bunch of lesser men of late ages (well, which they are, actually).

But then comes the common sense and settles the matter: if Gondor was able to beat Mordor 3-1 then why couldn’t Arnor do the same – and there is a nice comparison to them, do they wish to be outperformed by their southern brothers and cousins?

Just looking at the overall price-tag of their team it must be admitted that Shelob, Mouth and the two Nazgûls have fared a lot better anyone expected thus far – but giving them the easily scared Rohanians as their first opponent may have boostec their image a bit over it’s real value.

The AKM still thinks Arnor will qualify, led by the Witch King – only to be devoured by whoever comes to meet them from group A – but nevertheless.

The AKM predicts: Arnor wins 2-0 (2-1)


Anduin vs Rohan

Now Rohan may prove to be a tougher opponent to Anduin than Arnor was – but nothing they couldn’t handle. Then again, if Rohan wishes to keep any hopes alive for qualification they must win the game – and if they fall in trying too much Anduin will surely punish them for that.

So it will not be a walk in the park for Anduin but they will emerge the victors in the end whether they just prove themselves the better team or punish the Rohanians for too far-reaching attack. For Anduin defences are far better than those of Rohan or Arnor – and if one of the teams from this group could challenge a team from group A it would be Anduin (well, we’d doubt their chances against Armenelos but against Valimar or The Havens they might put up a fight).

Rohan will play serious and will get some balm to their wounds as now everyone laughs at them, but it will most probably not be enough.

The AKM predicts: Anduin wins 1-0

[Boromir88]

GROUP A

1. The Havens vs. Barrow-Downs -
The Havens will be a better match up for The Barrow-Downs team than Valimar was, but will it be enough? Now The Havens have conceded 2 goals in every one of their matches so defensively they're vulnerable and The Barrow-Downs is good enough to exploit it. But The Havens has also scored in each one of their games and against much tougher defenses than the BDs. Question, good enough to score 3? We'll take the odds and call it a draw 2-2.

2. Armenelos vs. Valimar-
The premier game of Round 2. In previous years Armenelos' strong attack has taken it right to Manwe's conservative style and completely embarrassed the Valar on their home field. Ar Pharazon would want nothing more than to do the same by spoiling the Valar's return to home after the 1-year hosting ban. Neither team will want to end this game with a draw, they both desire to beat the other too badly. The difficulty time we're having is choosing which one! *Valimar wins 2-1

GROUP B

1. AC Beleriand vs. Inter Beleriand-
Inter did good to get the needed result against Dwarve's United but now a different challenge facing their more trimmed and experienced land-mass rivals, AC Beleriand. We'll go with the experience and what this year has so far shown us *ACBel wins 2-1

2. Dwarve' s United vs. Gondolin-
Gondolin's defense is a little shakier than Inter's and the Dwarves will be determined to play better after a rough 2-0 defeat. Gondolin's attack however, is comparable to Inter's and Galadriel simply must save more than 3/5 to be worth the price she commands. *Gondolin wins 2-1

GROUP C

1. Hithlum vs. Shire-Bree United-
Shire-Bree's defense has the legs to run with Hithlum all game, and that's probably what they'll be doing. Gandalf and Khamul can spring a couple surprise counters that might be able to go in goal, but they can't get into a scoring contest or they'll lose. *Hithlum wins 3-1.

2. Doriath vs. Real Valinor-
We weren't surprised Real Valinor beat Hithlum on Round 1, but we surprised by how easily they dealt with Hithlum's offensive firepower. Containing Doriath then shouldn't be a problem for them and even without Arien their offensive talent is still good enough to beat Melian's girdle at least twice. *Real Valinor wins 2-0.

GROUP D

1. Barad-Dur vs. Isengard-
Isengard should play better in this one, but merely because it's hard to play any worse than their 0-4 shelacking in round 1. The blue wizards will be tasked with stopping their fellow wizard Saruman. Saruman has led those two off into the wilderness before, but other Isengard attackers shouldn't be too much of a hastle. Barad-Dur's offense hasn't been as impressive as expected, but surely it's shown more quality than Isengard's defense. *Barad-Dur wins 2-1.

2. Gondor vs. FC Valinor-
Defensively Gondor will be much stiffer than FC Valinor, but they don't have the skill nor talen to hold out indefinitely. Nor do they possess the killer strike needed to beat FC Valinor's defense, even if FC Valinor takes Gondor fairly easily. *FC Valinor wins 2-0.

GROUP E

1.Misty Mountains vs. Wilderland-
The Misty Mountains played a tough game against Eriador and Wilderland's attacking ability certainly surprised us being able to score 3 on Erebor. Although, in our group breakdowns we thought Erebor was overpriced (and overrated) this year, while Misty Mountains is getting good value comparable to the talent they've put on the field. Wilderland will be able to score, but the question is are they capable of stopping anyone? With Eriador waiting in the final game this is more a must win for Wilderland than it is for Misty Mountains. But to prove the doubters wrong (and TTN correct) Misty Mountains needs the win as well. *Misty Mts wins 3-2.

2. Erebor vs. Eriador-
A disappointing draw against Wilderland puts Erebor in a precarious situation. Now Erebor's attack is a nightmare to contain to a defense like Eriador, who plays mistake-free but seriously lack the aerial player to stop Smaug. However, it's also why they have Elrond at goal, because the Elf lord just stops everything game after game. This could end in a draw simply because Erebor should come away with most the possession and more shots on goal, but still can't find a way to get 2 past Elrond. Tough to call and go against Eriador, but we do agree with AKM here, they've lost some of their glitter (definitely hurt by Witch-King's departure). *Draw 1-1.

GROUP F

1. Minas Tirith vs. Tirion-
We were disappointed by Minas Tirith's round 1 performance. Make no mistake once put in this group their fate to take the cellar in the group seemed certain, but we thought there was still enough talent to challenge the teams in this group and make a real fight of things. Now we're left wondering if they'll even be able to score a goal in this group. *Tirion wins 3-1.

2. Nargothrond vs. The Sea-
Nargothrond definitely impressed us, even if it was against a must weaker Minas Tirith squad this year...this was a team that was really hemhorraging goals last year and appeared to have lost it's way. Last year must have been rock bottom and they have apparently placed everyone in their proper positions. Having said that, The Sea just exemplifies experience and defensive excellence. We foresee a breakout performance by Tar Minastir in this one, that leads to...*The Sea wins 2-1.

GROUP G

1. Imladris vs. Tol-in-Gaurhoth-
TIG has put it all together this year and that spells trouble for Imladris. Imladris is stout defensively and there is no way they're going to be intimidated with Varda leading the defense (that much is proven after round 1). Their offense though is seriously lacking, especially against the fearsome defenses in this group. *TIG wins 2-0.

2. Angband vs. Angfauglith-
Another premier game in round 2 and we're just sitting here anxiously wondering how this one turns out. It's hard to see that Morgoth won't come into this game full of fury and might that will put the Balrogs and Angfauglith in their proper place (2nd fiddle to Angband). But it's time to be blunt about Angband here...they don't look right and haven't looked right since losing on penalty kicks to Minas Tirith last year. Even in the friendlies, just to manage their draws Morgoth needed to come forward to get late goals. Now Angfauglith has a lot of problems in the midfield that won't be as troublesome to Angband as TIG's midfield was...We'll go with *Angband wins 1-0.

GROUP H

1. Arnor vs. Mordor-
Mordor did what they needed in a convincing 2-0 win over Rohan, proving what TTN said that there is more talent to the roster than what the payroll shows. However, we do agree with AKM here too that Mordor's roster, while perfect against Rohan, is not so good against the veteran rangers led by their king, Elendil. And on the attack, the Witch-King is clearly superior to The Mouth and Nazgul. Arnor is in more need of the win, even if Mordor has Anduin waiting in the last round, because a draw will probably give Mordor enough points to advance. This is one of the more difficult matches to call. We'll take the draw 2-2.

2. Anduin vs. Rohan-
Anduin lived up to their pricetag in round 1, and that was the questionmark with this team. While beating an opponent like Arnor isn't a sparkling achievement, it did show they were at least as good on the field as they were on paper. Rohan will be looking to bounceback after being frightened off the field by Mordor, and well at least the Anduin team shouldn't scare the wits out of Rohan. But Rohan's lost way too much talent from last year's strong playoff team, and the great Grimbeorn is quite scary too. *Anduin wins 2-1.