WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Another thing: the exchange between Lottie and Shasta. Possible scenarios:
a) Lottiewolf relying on "gut-feeling" to justify easy suspicion on an innocent Shasta. I don't find this that likely, though it's definitely a possibility. Lottie's tone is quite genuine, and if she's a wolf I'd be more inclined to think Shasta is one too (= option d)).
b) Innocent Lottie getting her famous gut-feeling on a Shastawolf. Definitely possible.
c) Innocent Lottie getting her famous gut-feeling on an innocent Shasta. Definitely possible.
d) Lottiewolf and Shastawolf mess around with a neat Day 1 wolf-on-wolf show. Certainly wouldn't put it past the two of them.

I'd say any of the above is possible, plus what I suggested... except that I'm surprised you find her tone "quite genuine", because it sounds anything but to me (note that this doesn't rule out b) or c)– I mean, I suppose she could be scrabbling for reasons to justify her "gut-feeling").

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by wilwa

Still though, a revealed hunter is less likely to be night killed, and then what good are they? Just saying, strongly opposed.

A hunter-revelation would be problematic indeed, not as such as the hunter could serve as a known innocent which would help us a lot in the endgame, but I'm not so sure how we could deal with a "hunter counter-reveal"... That's actually a maddening scenario, especially if it happens late in the game. And a card the cobbler would just love to play (one more reason to get rid of her/him if possible).

So how about we just made a deal that the hunter doesn't reveal? That way we could then lynch the possible imposter. *looks at the hunter and puts a finger on his lips... shhh...*

It seems the only interesting thing toDay has been this Lottie - Shasta to and fro, so it's understandable they have gathered the most suspicion. But I'd be careful at least yet to make any further conclusions about it. I mean especially Lottie tends to gather a lot of suspicion more or less every game in the beginning (I should know that as I tend to be one of those suspecting her), so I would almost say that I find those more suspicious who second or third the suspicions as "easy target" suspicions. But sure it's early to say at this point.

Okay. This is a bad Day for me as I need to be off to choir rehersals, but I'll be back for the last two hours. I hope we have a bit more lively discussion going on when I return (although not so many pages I don't have time to read all... ).

[Boromir88]

Wow, Lottie, I do fail at even scanning for my name!.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Besides, how else are we going to make sure Boro's a wolf than letting him kill off the Cobbler during the Night?

I would die if that happened again, but I'm afraid fortunately for the Cobbler this time, I am no wolf.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Just to make you read this post. And you hypocrite, don't pretend to make short posts just now, just wait when you get into some argument...

Haha fairy 'nuff.

I find it ironic of all the protesting to just ignore the cobbler and focus on the wolves...the vast majority of the talk has been about ignoring the cobbler. So in a completely backwards way to avoid focusing on the Cobbler, everyone's doing it. Oh the irony.

I side with Nerwen and Shasta on this, if we see someone acting cobblerish lynch them. What kind of logic is, "wait until the end of the game when the cobbler could be the most dangerous until we do something about it?" Strike while the iron is hot, get him gone when we get the chance and where there is little damage! It is a nice perk to have the seer being able to ID the cobbler in dreams, but come now to suggest that the seer would do something as rash as jumping at any fake reveal to oust the cobbler while their are still 3 wolves abroad is kind pointless.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

(but it did feed to my paranoia at the first read) The wolves will try to be nice and friendly. The innocents will be brutal and openly attacking people (hopefully).

I don't like those huge generalizations, because I think it's more depended on the player than the role. I mean I act brutal and attacking all the time because I know that's what keeps me around, regardless of role. Although too much brutishness also means some people are more likely support a bandwagon on me, then oppose, regardless of what they think my role is

Originally Posted by Nogrod

As I said earlier, let's go for any signs of wolvery for now, toDay, toMorrow... if we get a good hunch on a cobbler and if we are totally baffled with the wolves, let's then try to lynch the cobbler (it might be a wolf trying to act like a cobbler as well, not an unheard of scenario either).

This isn't like using an oven, minute 20 flip the chicken over, roast again. Minute 38 remove and prod with a meat thermometer...drat it's not 180 degrees, stick back. Minute 47 done. Let rest, minute 55 bon appetit.

No no no, we stay the course. If we miss out on wolves the first few days, we don't switch it up to the cobbler. Why is there an assumption that we can't try to figure out the wolves and cobbler...ya know at the same time? If people are pressed for time (like usual) and don't have the time to do so then let's split up the work load.

We get a few people who can look for potential cobblers, and to protect from tricksy manipulation a few "fact" checkers. A couple to focus on the wolves, and again some more fact checkers to try and eliminate as much bias and twisted manipulation as possible. I'll check for possible cobblery anyone want to volunteer to examine me...ehem I mean my work?

Because the thing is, as long as we hold up our job in buying the gifteds as many days as we can and avoid the irrationally, more often than not, extremely damaging emotional lynches, than we usually fair very well against the wolves. No stupid lynches, it really is that simple, because everyone's been a wolf here before correct? And don't you just smirk and jump for joy anytime the village manages to lynch one of their gifteds? No stupid lynches, don't do the wolves work for them, and honestly we'll be fine as our chances of winning dramatically go up.

Edit: crossed with Nog

[Ozban]

Greenie, great job summarizing what everyone knows already. We know nothing, whatever the reason their (meant Lottie and Shasta of course) exchange had, we can't know. Unless they care to explain. I keep wondering what led you to writing such a list...

And yes, traitor/cobbler can be anybody, possibly one of those Cobb-hunt theoretists. Again, we know not.

For my part: that Lottie-shasta conversation was most likely just a random recon. Wouldn't make too much fuzz around it.

Pitch:

As for the matter of fake reveals which you broach there, I have yet to witness such an attempt being made successfully, but historical chronicles do mention precedences.

I hope you are not gonna change the history records. Would be troublesome you know, not that suprising though.

Legate: I'm so glad we (more like Nerwen) convinced you about importance of cobbler, I'm so glad you won't be "ignoring" him.

Even considering what Nerwen said, I believe the Cobbler is not a threat. It can be so on some late Day, when there are few people left and he/she can vote with the Wolves to get rid of the villagers... Although okay, we are quite a small village here... hmm, I would have to count. Okay, I submit, maybe you are right and particularly in this village we should not ignore them for too long, but still, in the first Days it should not be our concern. And anyway, even in the later ones - I mean, we should look for WWs, not for Cobbler - once there are no WWs, the Cobbler has lost as well.

You know it would be a shame, ignoring threat of cobbler completely. On the other hand, from what i got, Cobbler tends to fall into pit by himself, we are just the pendulum. I wouldn't really assign any high priority to finding him. Just get rid of him eventually when he is revealed.

Aye, the false-reveal scenarios are dangerous, but is such a theory really worth such a witch-hunt? We are starting from the scratch. Without information of any sort we will probably witness several innocent die before we find a real cobbler.

Let's find WWs. That should be our priority. One point I'll agree on with Legate.

Later...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

A quick comment on the Day so far before dashing off again. First - I find it amusing that people keep saying the wolves are our top priority, and yet the main topic of discussion is the cobbler. Like, the cobbler is distracting the village already, and it's actually possible they haven't been around yet at all! Though of course it's pretty boring and unfruitful to start the Day with everyone echoing "We need to kill the wolves!" But still, I wouldn't be surprised if our cobbler was in fact one of those keeping up the debate about how to deal with the cobbler.

That is indeed not improbable, and I think it is worth considering what people have said in relation to the topic. And I must say, it was part of the intention. And as for cobbler being the main topic, well, it does not matter what we talk about as long as we talk about something to which people can express their opinions! Especially on Day 1. I really like it when people say "let's focus on hunting Wolves!" but apart from that line, they say nothing else. You can read a lot from people's reactions - actually, that's the only way you can read something on Day 1 (since you don't have any evidence yet from the Night-kills) - and that's what I planned to do (instead of just in-character banter or random "I think XY is a Wolf, because I don't like his avvie!"). And people react, speak their minds and so on, and that's the whole point...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

A hunter-revelation would be problematic indeed, not as such as the hunter could serve as a known innocent which would help us a lot in the endgame, but I'm not so sure how we could deal with a "hunter counter-reveal"... That's actually a maddening scenario, especially if it happens late in the game. And a card the cobbler would just love to play (one more reason to get rid of her/him if possible).

So how about we just made a deal that the hunter doesn't reveal? That way we could then lynch the possible imposter. *looks at the hunter and puts a finger on his lips... shhh...*

I am puzzled by Nogrod in general, either your wit is a bit sleepy today or you are reading a different thread than me. Of course the Hunter should not reveal, and it's been said here already, so not sure what is inventive about your shh-ing Hunter revealing him/herself will ruin the whole point, as you eventually conclude yourself. The only moment when I can think of Hunter-reveal to be good is when there are like three people left and every "known innocent" is important. But again, nobody could tell for sure that the Hunter is not faking anyway, and also, in fact even in this case of three people remaining, the Hunter would do better to stay hidden, as even if he is lynched, he can still take the last Wolf with him, leaving the single innocent to win. I am just wondering if you are not trying to suggest to the Cobbler to play a Hunter or something weird as that, although I can't see why it would make any sense. In any case, I think the topic should be just laid to rest.

But well! Sorta quiet, isn't it? I have to leave now and will be back only to vote, I think, so... I am not so happy with the turn of events and have to say that indeed aside from Shasta-Lottie there's been very little to go on with. I guess Boro is responsible with his unusual quietness Otherwise, I would like to hear still from those who haven't been around yet, that is, Eönwë (who said however that he unfortunately won't be around toDay until late), Ozban and skip. And preferrably from others too, but... well...

Right now I am wary of Shasta and Lottie, and curious about Nogrod... I mean, he says the kind of things that Wolves say if they want to participate but not really to be constructive... but it's more like that I am puzzled than suspicious, maybe he's just somehow skimming through the thread and not paying too much attention as to what he's reading or something. But something in his manner unnerves me too.

EDIT: x-ed with Boro and Ozban. Great! Seem like people are posting around, wonderful! Now gotta go, but will check...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Not really liking Greenie at the moment - mostly for saying Lottie 'feels genuine' when I already pointed out her reasons for suspecting me are bunk.

Note - I'm fairly sure I'm going to have to vote in about three hours, and I won't be here for much of that time.

[Boromir88]

One thing I told myself I wanted to comment on but forgot that I told myself to comment on...

Originally Posted by Pitch

As for the matter of fake reveals which you broach there, I have yet to witness such an attempt being made successfully, but historical chronicles do mention precedences.

It's more about timing than anything. And of course once you've masterfully pulled off a great fake-reveal you've got this horrible reputation of being completely untrustworthy that follows you around for a while. It's quite a burden, because it's like everyone expects you at some point to just do some crazy fake reveal again and give pay back to deceiving them previously. But it's truly just about timing and doing the exact thing which no one expects.

My advice then, if you don't want that reputation of being absolutely untrustworthy, don't go for a successful fake reveal. Although, you're already "Mr. Agreeable" 'round these parts, and don't know if that's a rep you'll be able to shed...unless you pull off a great fake reveal.

[Pitchwife]

Awake and catching up...

Originally Posted by Shasta

In other news, I'm finding something slightly off about Pitch. He's only made one post thus far, but as I read it there were points at which I felt he was being awfully... well, the pun is inevitable... agreeable.

Let's see these points, please.

Originally Posted by Nog

Right on spot Pitch. I paused at that while reading but got carried away by the cobbler-speculation... (but it did feed to my paranoia at the first read) The wolves will try to be nice and friendly. The innocents will be brutal and openly attacking people (hopefully). The wolves would love "friendliness-based lottery" of votes, while we innocents need to find out who the honey-tongued villains are.

Although I'm not too sure that quote merits as a reason to suspect Legate as you could read it as an IC comment as well.

Now what exactly are you doing here - just lecturing on general WW principles and saying they don't apply to the Legate-quote 'cause it's IC, or using my flippant remark to cast a shadow of doubt on Legate that doesn't quite amount to suspicion but could be exploited later? We wonders, my preciouss...
Oh, and wolves just lurve to hide their wolvery behind IC comments!

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You seem to assume that the traitor, not to mention those of us whose souls have been taken by the accursed Lord of Wolves, would reveal only as the Seer. Why should that be?

Well, Legate used the Seer as an example, so I concentrated on that; besides, as wilwa has observed, the Ranger has less reason to reveal unless in mortal danger, and the Hunter less than the Ranger, so to fake-reveal as the Seer seems the most likely.
That's not to say the other two are impossible or unheard of... and might in fact be more dangerous than the Seer-act, as they can't be disproven like a fake Seer can. Actually, my remark about the danger of a counter-reveal delayed too long was inspired by legends of a wolf-hunt before my time, where I think a wolf revealed as the Ranger, and the true Ranger didn't contest the claim until he was threatened with being lynched... and wasn't believed and was lynched. So yes, fake reveals do have their dangers.

Originally Posted by wilwa

I remember my only game as a cobbler I false revealed as the ranger and ended up accidently giving away who a wolf was and helping the village win. But I suppose that's a rare occurence...

Ah, the game with the two Seers and two Rangers... *revels in fond memories*

Originally Posted by Legate

In any case, if you see somebody behaves suspiciously, you won't be able to say whether it's a Cobbler or not - or not necessarily (and it can be a Wolf faking to be a Cobbler etc.), so basically you vote for the person whoever it is, and learn their role once they hang

Amen to that - we can't tell wolf from cobbler until they're dead, and that's the long and short of the whole discussion on whether we should concentrate on the cobbler (no we shouldn't) or ignore them (no we shouldn't).

On the Shasta-Lottie thing: Basically, Lottie's saying "I do suspect him in earnest, but I could be wrong" - and of course she could, such is the lot of an ordo, therefore it's trivial and she might as well not have bothered to say it. Peppering her suspicion with disclaimers like that does have a smell of wolvish caution, and it doesn't help that I don't see anything remotely worrying in that quote of Shasta she started her suspicion from.

Btw, I love Greenie's comment on the matter, presenting four scenarios and evaluating their respective probability as a) "definitely a possibility", b) "definitely possible", c) "definitely possible" and d) "certainly not past them". Makes everything so much clearer!

(x-ed with everything after #41)

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boro

No stupid lynches, it really is that simple, because everyone's been a wolf here before correct? And don't you just smirk and jump for joy anytime the village manages to lynch one of their gifteds? No stupid lynches, don't do the wolves work for them, and honestly we'll be fine as our chances of winning dramatically go up.

Hear hear!

Well, not much new has been said. It seems agreed upon that we lynch the Cobbler if it is clear who they are, but WWs are the priority (now that I think about it the fact that this has even been discussed by most of us seems rather silly). And that Gifteds should shush (unless Seer has good info) and anyone revealing for a dumb reason will be swiftly lynched (especially if false revealing as the Hunter) since it's likely a false one.

Now that that's settled. Who do I find suspicious?

No one I'm afraid, which saddens me since I won't be around for a while. I'm going to try my hardest to get back in time for DL. I would vote now just to be on the safe side, but I have no idea who to vote for, so I'm going to wait and hope I get back in time to read up and make a good vote.

x'ed with a few, don't have time to read, so I'll catch up later

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The last exchange between Shasta and Lottie made me curious a bit, I wouldn't have thought Shasta strange by himself, but the way Lottie pointed it out seems rather weird - but Shasta's reaction likewise. His reaction was a bit, well, aggressive? To such a minor thing (or so it would seem). But the funniest part was Lottie's backing away after that. And the sort of repetitive "I think you are suspicious, BUT in fact I do not", which immediately made me think of Wolf-on-Wolf accusations, which are just a theatre for us... Not to say that Shasta's initial suspicion of Pitch could well be a simple random accusation made by a Wolf in order to have some good person to vote for toDay...

Interesting points here. Individually, Lottie and Shasta seem to me to be their usual selves, but the interplay between them could be said to have had a bit of a companionlike feel. And Shasta's quick suspicion of Pitch does stand out as well.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

In any case, if you see somebody behaves suspiciously, you won't be able to say whether it's a Cobbler or not - or not necessarily (and it can be a Wolf faking to be a Cobbler etc.), so basically you vote for the person whoever it is, and learn their role once they hang, gibbets and crows, dotard, oh no, too bad, I guess we don't have any gibbets here in this dungeon and I think this wasn't my line anyway...

You seemingly brought that up about the Cobbler to get discussion going, and that's appreciated. I didn't agree with your idea that they should be totally ignored. Now you've got the right stance. Suspicious behavor in general ought to be scrutinized, regardless of whether it looks more lupine or Cobblerish. It certainly has been heard of for wolves to emulate a Cobbler in the hopes they'll be dismissed as a threat.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

A quick comment on the Day so far before dashing off again. First - I find it amusing that people keep saying the wolves are our top priority, and yet the main topic of discussion is the cobbler. Like, the cobbler is distracting the village already, and it's actually possible they haven't been around yet at all! Though of course it's pretty boring and unfruitful to start the Day with everyone echoing "We need to kill the wolves!" But still, I wouldn't be surprised if our cobbler was in fact one of those keeping up the debate about how to deal with the cobbler.

Another thing: the exchange between Lottie and Shasta. Possible scenarios:
a) Lottiewolf relying on "gut-feeling" to justify easy suspicion on an innocent Shasta. I don't find this that likely, though it's definitely a possibility. Lottie's tone is quite genuine, and if she's a wolf I'd be more inclined to think Shasta is one too (= option d)).
b) Innocent Lottie getting her famous gut-feeling on a Shastawolf. Definitely possible.
c) Innocent Lottie getting her famous gut-feeling on an innocent Shasta. Definitely possible.
d) Lottiewolf and Shastawolf mess around with a neat Day 1 wolf-on-wolf show. Certainly wouldn't put it past the two of them.

Quite reasonable, this.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I find it ironic of all the protesting to just ignore the cobbler and focus on the wolves...the vast majority of the talk has been about ignoring the cobbler. So in a completely backwards way to avoid focusing on the Cobbler, everyone's doing it. Oh the irony.

Didn't Greenie say that already?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

We get a few people who can look for potential cobblers, and to protect from tricksy manipulation a few "fact" checkers. A couple to focus on the wolves, and again some more fact checkers to try and eliminate as much bias and twisted manipulation as possible.

Like I said, the best bet is to look for evil-looking things in general, instead of trying to seperate them into "Cobbler things" and "wolf things". Wolves can look like Cobblers, and vice-versa.

x/d with Pitch and Wilwa

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boro

Actually, my remark about the danger of a counter-reveal delayed too long was inspired by legends of a wolf-hunt before my time, where I think a wolf revealed as the Ranger, and the true Ranger didn't contest the claim until he was threatened with being lynched... and wasn't believed and was lynched.

I recall a tragedy like that which occurred well within the time we've both been wolf-hunting. It involved a brave but ill-advised Ranger by the name of Rune and a vicious, ravening she-wolf named Lhuna. I believe your distant kinsman Kent was a witness.

EDIT:X'd with Zil.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boro

My advice then, if you don't want that reputation of being absolutely untrustworthy, don't go for a successful fake reveal. Although, you're already "Mr. Agreeable" 'round these parts, and don't know if that's a rep you'll be able to shed...unless you pull off a great fake reveal

Thanks for the advice, I've got no intention and no reason to (although it could be fun to try one day when I'm a wolf or cobbler). So I guess I'll just have to live with being Mr Agreeable...

Legate - I'm not exactly comfortable with Nog myself, but I'm not exactly comfortable with you either, the way you now say ignore the cobbler, now don't, speak perfect sense at times but mostly weave those long convoluted word clouds which seem to drift any way the wind blows and are hard to get to the gist of... Another one to watch.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Zil

Like I said, the best bet is to look for evil-looking things in general, instead of trying to seperate them into "Cobbler things" and "wolf things". Wolves can look like Cobblers, and vice-versa.

Not to mention the fact that Boro's plan is totally over-complicated. He should stick to gatekeeping.

EDIT:X'd with Pitch.

[Pitchwife]

Er, Nerwen, you're quoting me there, not Boro. But yes, that's exactly the game I was thinking of.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Er, Nerwen, you're quoting me there, not Boro. But yes, that's exactly the game I was thinking of.

Oh, I don't know how I came to do that. I was really quite puzzled as to whether Boro had somehow forgotten he actually played in that game.

[skip spence]

The vision of fair Lady Thinlomien lying dead on the cold and rough stone-floor haunted skip as he paced to and fro in the dim half-light of the dungeon a stone’s throw away from the other prisoners. He stopped with a shudder of fear and disgust, and then drew a deep breath and closed his eyes in an effort to regain control of his mental faculties. And now, slowly, the horrid imagine on the back of his eyes would transform into the beloved shape of the princess Finduilas, and it was spring-time in a green, sunlit meadow, and she was running towards him wearing a white dress, smiling brightly with warm and loving affection, eyes keen and sparkling, her slender arms reaching out for him to embrace.

An epiphany, skip thought to himself as he opened his eyes again, and although he felt a brief but painful sting of guilt for momentarily thinking only of himself, he could not help to realize that this dreadful event was the perfect chance for him to achieve what he had set out to do, that this was the very reason he had come along on the perilous expedition in the first place. Courage returned to the Noldo. He would reveal and extinguish the lost souls among them, these dark shape-shifters, these cruel hounds of Sauron, and he would save his friends from certain death and emerge triumphantly out of the underground with them, and Finduilas would see him for the great hero that he truly was, and then she would surely love him as he loved her and they would finally be together, always. This is how it was meant to be.

Skip returned to the others with a determined look in his eyes.

Right then. Time to hunt some wolves. Will be around on and off the rest of the Day. First a shower (enough of the uncloaking jokes now!) and then I'll try to catch up!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Not really liking Greenie at the moment - mostly for saying Lottie 'feels genuine' when I already pointed out her reasons for suspecting me are bunk.

Since this is, in fact, Day 1, there are extremely few circumstances when I could have any reason that wasn't 'bunk'. Besides, I fail to see how my 'bunk'ish reasons affect my 'feeling genuine' at all. They're unrelated - I could have the best reasons in the world, but that doesn't mean I'd 'feel genuine'.

Anyway, I have to vote and run. I might be on in three hours or so, but don't count on it.

++ Shasta

Have a good Day...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Indeed, I marvel at your audacity in suggesting such a thing, Master Nogrod. Holy Elbereth, there are ladies among us, and one of them a young maiden! Have you no decency?


Flattery will get you nowhere.

As for the matter of fake reveals which you broach there, I have yet to witness such an attempt being made successfully, but historical chronicles do mention precedences. Now as you are no doubt aware, the best way for such a fake claimant to fool us would be to sacrifice a real wolf in order to gain our trust, and the cobbler is in no position to do that, even if they were willing to, being as much in the dark as to the wolves' identity as we are. They might, of course, get a wolf lynched by mistake, deeming said wolf innocent, but then that would ill save the evil side. Therefore I don't think the danger of a cobbler fake-revealing very high, considering all sides. A wolf doing it, however, would be quite a different matter, as they could use their knowledge of who is furry and who isn't to lend credibility to their pretended dreams.

On the other hand, the cobbler, or a wolf, might still risk it in the hope to thus draw out the true Seer for the wolves to kill, as you seem to be considering here:

This is a two-edged blade. A false claim that is uncontested for too long and not disproven by mislynchings might be believed over a delayed counter-reveal... I think there are precedences to that in the histories, too. But we'll cross that bridge when we come to it, and in the meantime I trust in the wisdom of our
Seer to handle these matters without our prompting.

(x-ed with Zil and Nogrod)

Here you are, Pitch. Bolding mine. I've noticed several other points ("Thanks for the advice" sticks out most noticably) as I've read the Day, as well.

I have to vote in a few minutes. I'd prefer not to turn this into Shasta vs. Lottie, but I will if I have to.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Not to mention the fact that Boro's plan is totally over-complicated. He should stick to gatekeeping.

So I've been told before, but I question if I can even do that with how the wolves have managed to enter this cursed city.

But totally was not thinking about the organizational complications with that, I was more or less thinking...umm why can't we do both at the same time? *shrug*

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Like I said, the best bet is to look for evil-looking things in general, instead of trying to seperate them into "Cobbler things" and "wolf things". Wolves can look like Cobblers, and vice-versa.

Hmm well cobblers tend to be intentionally confusing and all over the place to wreak havoc. And even if you choose not to listen to someone obviously stirring a pot of confusion, you're still faced with a conundrum of what do you do with someone who counts in the innocent tally but can mess the votes up later on. Where wolves at least try to make more reasonable and fair posts to try and sway the lynch in their favors.

But point taken, either through pure cobbler confusion or lying through wolf fangs yet still looking fair and reasonable, both are suspicious behaviors and that's what I will look for. No point to try to separate them.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Pitch

I don't like Lottie's contrived reasons to vote for me, but she more often contrives reasons to vote when she's innocent, so I'll leave her alone today. Pitch sticks out as more suspicious to me today - agreeable, doesn't touch on more than the obvious topic of the cobbler, etc.

Choose well, village.

[Pitchwife]

OK, Shasta , let's look at these points one by one:

Originally Posted by me

Indeed, I marvel at your audacity in suggesting such a thing, Master Nogrod. Holy Elbereth, there are ladies among us, and one of them a young maiden! Have you no decency?

This is called IC banter, a thing not uncommon in the early posts of Day 1. (And if you're about to quote my words about wolves loving to hide behind that back at me, please point out the wolvish content hidden in this quote.)

Originally Posted by me

Flattery will get you nowhere.

This is a semi-banter, semi-serious reply to something Legate said that made my eyebrows twitch briefly. Wolvishly agreeable? Don't think so.

Originally Posted by me

On the other hand

This is called dialectics. Thesis and antithesis, that kind of stuff. If it means I'm a wolf, then so was Hegel.

Originally Posted by me

and in the meantime I trust in the wisdom of our Seer to handle these matters without our prompting.

This may actually be the most 'agreeable' part of this post. Basically, it boils down to "It's OK for us to discuss all this, but the Gifteds can think for themselves and won't necessarily do what we tell them to". - This being my first post, I tried to be IC and use a somewhat lofty, Elvish style, which may have contributed to the impression of agreeability, I don't know.
"Thanks for the advice" - this is called irony.

Conclusion: I'm not yet convinced of my own wolvery. Not this time.

[Boromir88]

Current thoughts on people who've caught my attention before I go grab some lunch and then back to vote.

I won't vote for Ozban or Pitch today. I like Oz's first post, curious to see more how she plays. I like Pitch's response to me about fake revealing, looks pretty innocent.

Don't really trust or distrust Legate but he's chattery enough to give us tons of information so eventually to his benefit or not, I'll figure him out.

So far everyone else could get my vote for either failing to make any strong impressions or being eerily spunky for some reason *looks at Nog*

And I'm not exactly understanding what you're seeing in Greenie's post to prop her up on this pedestal. I mean for pointing out here's 4 scenarios with the Lottie-Shasta business, could be any one of them?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

What a pity this conversation seems to be taking shape and people are posting really a lot only when I don't have that much time to be around anymore... and probably won't until the DL... but I will vote still.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I side with Nerwen and Shasta on this, if we see someone acting cobblerish lynch them. What kind of logic is, "wait until the end of the game when the cobbler could be the most dangerous until we do something about it?" Strike while the iron is hot, get him gone when we get the chance and where there is little damage! It is a nice perk to have the seer being able to ID the cobbler in dreams, but come now to suggest that the seer would do something as rash as jumping at any fake reveal to oust the cobbler while their are still 3 wolves abroad is kind pointless.

If I understand it correctly, I don't get this at all - are you saying we should focus on the Cobbler? See above, please: if we lynch all the Wolves, we don't need to worry about any Cobblers anymore. So I don't see what you are talking about.

Originally Posted by Ozban

You know it would be a shame, ignoring threat of cobbler completely. On the other hand, from what i got, Cobbler tends to fall into pit by himself, we are just the pendulum. I wouldn't really assign any high priority to finding him. Just get rid of him eventually when he is revealed.

Aye, the false-reveal scenarios are dangerous, but is such a theory really worth such a witch-hunt? We are starting from the scratch. Without information of any sort we will probably witness several innocent die before we find a real cobbler.

Well, it is more like this - even if we were looking for a cobbler, we won't find him, or we couldn't be sure whether he is Cobbler or Wolf, and the point is anyway, we should find the Wolves first (see above). If I understood Boro's words, then he suggests that perhaps if you have free time, you can start looking for the Cobbler. But I think the Cobbler will really either reveal him/herself through some crazy Cobblery action (heedless kamikaze-type just in order to help the WWs), or just stay behind the scenes - where, however, he/she does not have as much power until the latter days.

But anyway, this was just for the clarification of this particular point.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

It's more about timing than anything. And of course once you've masterfully pulled off a great fake-reveal you've got this horrible reputation of being completely untrustworthy that follows you around for a while. It's quite a burden, because it's like everyone expects you at some point to just do some crazy fake reveal again and give pay back to deceiving them previously. But it's truly just about timing and doing the exact thing which no one expects.

My advice then, if you don't want that reputation of being absolutely untrustworthy, don't go for a successful fake reveal. Although, you're already "Mr. Agreeable" 'round these parts, and don't know if that's a rep you'll be able to shed...unless you pull off a great fake reveal.

Okay, given that I am not 100% concentrating, I am not entirely sure what is this sort of dialogue with Pitch supposed to be, it just seems weird, or the point gets past me. Nonetheless, let me just say, as for horrible reputation, I think most people won't mind getting a bad reputation for a while if they happen to make a great bluff which will get them to win the game... as that's the goal, after all.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Legate - I'm not exactly comfortable with Nog myself, but I'm not exactly comfortable with you either, the way you now say ignore the cobbler, now don't, speak perfect sense at times but mostly weave those long convoluted word clouds which seem to drift any way the wind blows and are hard to get to the gist of... Another one to watch.

Only the Wolves don't ever change their opinions, Mr. Agreeable , because their "opinion" is fake, like everything they do. To see a flaw in one's thinking and to be willing to correct it is a way of the innocents, unless they are dumb bunch of people. Nonetheless, my basic stance has never changed in any radical way - it all stems from the basic understanding of what one means by "ignoring cobbler". I still think we should ignore the Cobbler. But basically simply because of what I said above (and what many have repeated so many times after me that I find it rather funny): we are not able to tell the Cobbler from a Wolf, usually. If there is someone suspicious, we just lynch him, and then we will know. Honestly, even when I consider my own experience, it is not common that we have so many suspects that we don't know whom to lynch first and start thinking which of them is the Cobbler and which one is Wolf.

Eurgh. I need to decide whom to vote, probably won't be posting anything long from now on... but I am reading...

EDIT: x.ed with Pitch and Boro. Boro, Ozban is a he And don't think you are going to confuse us with that, I am not going to discard the possibility of two of you being Wolves together, that's an old trick to pretend a gender-confusion while you know it already since last Night...

[skip spence]

Well then, I've read the thread and all this cobbler-talk obviously stands out. Some of it strikes me as silly, and some of it strikes me as right sinister, as it is strictly theoretical at this point without any cobbler suspects and is therefore a distraction from more important business, that is, deciding on a name. I fear that what we are hearing are the treacherous tongues of Sauron.

Some other impressions.

Green is being captain obvious.

Nerwen is the one most determined to stay in character whatever that means...

Boro chides people for posting too long then promptly posts a long, rather pointless and somewhat irrational post that in many ways repeats things already stated more than once.

I also agree with Legate that Nogrod's reasoning seems a bit dull toDay. Is the old master-hunter losing his touch, or is he no longer himself. Hard to say...

As it stands I might vote Shasta toDay for reasons I'd rather not disclose at this point... But I'll vote closer to the DL...

A question to Legate. What makes you single out Wilwa as especially reasonable?

[Ozban]

My friends, what is happening to you? Yesterday's friends turning suspicious at the first sign of danger. Shall we abandon all we were because of that damned Wolf Lord reigning these dungeons? Stand up for what you are, hold on to what we were through. Hunting wolves, we put our lives on the line many times. We relied on each other, now you seem forgeting our bonds. If there are traitors among us, we will find them, whatever the cost. But let's not accuse others without any solid evidence. "Yet hope remains while the Company is true." as Lord Felagund would say. And furthermore, I can't stand the thought of Sauron's amusement when he sees us turning on each other.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'm not yet convinced of my own wolvery. Not this time.

I'm not convinced either. Neither that you are WW, neither that you aren't.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Wolvishly agreeable? Don't think so.

And do you really think someone would cease to suspect you because you disagree with them? Wouldn't convince me at least.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I like Oz's first post, curious to see more how she plays.

I'm terribly sorry to disappoint you Boro but I'm actualy male.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

And don't think you are going to confuse us with that, I am not going to discard the possibility of two of you being Wolves together, that's an old trick to pretend a gender-confusion while you know it already since last Night...

Aye Legate! You just uncovered our tactical masterpiece.

[Pitchwife]

My thoughts on everyone up to now:
INNOCENT
Pitch - the unfurriest furrier you've ever seen

FEELING OK WITH
Boro - need to go through his posts at more leisure some time, but so far he looks unalarmingly Boroish to me
Nerwen - young and impatient hunter speaks words of wisdom beyond her years, and is actively engaged.
Ozban - one post (OK, two by now) which looks quite good, and besides he gets a newbie pass toDay (although he already seems to feel remarkably at home around these parts)

NO READ
Eönwë - absent
Greenie - just one post, half good sense, half "everything's possible". No idea.
Glirdan - nothing in his posts that really stood out to me, either pro or con.
Inziladun - I've given up all illusion about being able to read him. Sparse posts with good reason in them, involved in the discussion and still detached somehow, the usual Zil whatever his role. No clue.
skip - er, what?
wilwa - almost made it into the OK category, but not quite. Speaks a lot of common sense, but has no suspicions - really? I mean, come on, there's been quite a bit of discussion and controversy toDay, nothing there stood out to you?

FEELING QUEASY ABOUT
Legate - his response to my #52, second paragraph, looks fair enough, but still, he feels too vague to me, it's hard to get a grip on him, like grappling with a mollusc; makes me feel like, argh!
Nogrod - see #48, the second quote and my comment there; also calling for open suspicions but not giving any himself yet (as far as I could see); something's off there.

THERE BE A WOLF HERE?
Lottie
Shasta
These two deserve a post of their own, and I'm already x-ing with skip and Oz, so this goes out first.

[Glirdan]

All of this continued talk about the Cobbler is starting to give poor ol' Glirdy a headache on top of this nasty cold that has seemed to take control

Okay, back to serious.

I'm thankful that Legate brought up all this Cobbler talk as it has kept people talking, as was his intention. Yet Pitch has stirred some interesting points here about our conversation starter.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Legate - I'm not exactly comfortable with Nog myself, but I'm not exactly comfortable with you either, the way you now say ignore the cobbler, now don't, speak perfect sense at times but mostly weave those long convoluted word clouds which seem to drift any way the wind blows and are hard to get to the gist of... Another one to watch.

Yet this could simply be a very confused Legate....which I doubt. He is not the type of player to be confused easily. The wishy-washyness of his "Ignore the cobbler!" to his "Don't ignore the cobbler" has got me uneasy.

But I'm also rather uneasy about Pitch at the moment. His whole post defending himself against Shasta seems a little too defensive.....Yet I've suspected people of this before and it always turns out their innocent. I won't vote for PItch toDay, but will certainly be keeping an eye him.

And we have votes:

Lottie --------> Shasta
Shasta ------> Pitch

I would not put it past one of the three being a Wolf. The only question is which one.

EDIT: X'ed with Pitch

[A Little Green]

I'm back! We'll see if I can keep myself awake until DL..

Originally Posted by Shasta

Not really liking Greenie at the moment - mostly for saying Lottie 'feels genuine' when I already pointed out her reasons for suspecting me are bunk.

"Having a genuine-feeling tone" and "making sense" are not the same thing, not even close! Yes, Lottie's reasons for suspecting you weren't strong, but the tone in which she stated them struck me as more innocent than not.

Originally Posted by Shasticle

I don't like Lottie's contrived reasons to vote for me, but she more often contrives reasons to vote when she's innocent, so I'll leave her alone today. Pitch sticks out as more suspicious to me today - agreeable, doesn't touch on more than the obvious topic of the cobbler, etc.

Erm? You leave Lottie alone for toDay because what you suspect her for is largely what she always does - and go on to vote Pitch for being agreeable? I mean, what?


EDIT: x-ed with Glirdan

[Nogrod]

Logged in and reading: only one page but those posts are longish...

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

If I understand it correctly, I don't get this at all - are you saying we should focus on the Cobbler? See above, please: if we lynch all the Wolves, we don't need to worry about any Cobblers anymore. So I don't see what you are talking about.

No, no, saying I agreed with Nerwen and Shasta earlier that we shouldn't ignore the threat of the cobbler. I wasn't understanding the argument that "Well yeah, later on if the cobbler is alive he can be a real voting problem, so lets deal with it then." I was trying to say, why give the cobbler the chance to be a problem later? If someone is looking like the cobbler to me I'm going to vote for that person, believing they're the cobbler and thus someone we don't want to have around at any time.

Originally Posted by Legate

Okay, given that I am not 100% concentrating, I am not entirely sure what is this sort of dialogue with Pitch supposed to be, it just seems weird, or the point gets past me. Nonetheless, let me just say, as for horrible reputation, I think most people won't mind getting a bad reputation for a while if they happen to make a great bluff which will get them to win the game... as that's the goal, after all.

I saw a chance to get a response from Pitch to see if I could figure him out. I'm glad he obliged to give me one.

Originally Posted by Ozban

I'm terribly sorry to disappoint you Boro but I'm actualy male.

Sorry for the mistake, and to have to disappoint you that this is actually not disappointing.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Since this is, in fact, Day 1, there are extremely few circumstances when I could have any reason that wasn't 'bunk'. Besides, I fail to see how my 'bunk'ish reasons affect my 'feeling genuine' at all. They're unrelated - I could have the best reasons in the world, but that doesn't mean I'd 'feel genuine'.

Anyway, I have to vote and run. I might be on in three hours or so, but don't count on it.

++ Shasta

Hmm. That would seem to speak against those two being wolves together, at least.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't like Lottie's contrived reasons to vote for me, but she more often contrives reasons to vote when she's innocent, so I'll leave her alone today.

As for Lottie, I seem to recall a recent circumstance where a 'contrived' Day 1 vote from her had evil intent and went horribly awry..

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

If I understand it correctly, I don't get this at all - are you saying we should focus on the Cobbler? See above, please: if we lynch all the Wolves, we don't need to worry about any Cobblers anymore. So I don't see what you are talking about.

I don't think that's what Boro meant. I took it as "If we see something that looks off, we shouldn't be fussed about whether the offender might be a wolf or merely the Cobbler", which is a sentiment I obviously agree with.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I still think we should ignore the Cobbler. But basically simply because of what I said above (and what many have repeated so many times after me that I find it rather funny): we are not able to tell the Cobbler from a Wolf, usually. If there is someone suspicious, we just lynch him, and then we will know. Honestly, even when I consider my own experience, it is not common that we have so many suspects that we don't know whom to lynch first and start thinking which of them is the Cobbler and which one is Wolf.

Hmm. That didn't seem to be what you were saying before, but all right.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Boro, Ozban is a he And don't think you are going to confuse us with that, I am not going to discard the possibility of two of you being Wolves together, that's an old trick to pretend a gender-confusion while you know it already since last Night...

I didn't know which Ozban was either. Good to have that clarified.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

FEELING OK WITH
Boro - need to go through his posts at more leisure some time, but so far he looks unalarmingly Boroish to me
Nerwen - young and impatient hunter speaks words of wisdom beyond her years, and is actively engaged.
Ozban - one post (OK, two by now) which looks quite good, and besides he gets a newbie pass toDay (although he already seems to feel remarkably at home around these parts)

I'd agree about Ozban. He's fallen into the pattern quite nicely, considering this is his first game here.

Right now, the obvious choices toDay would seem to be Shasta and Lottie. I can't see both being wolves together, and it seems a bit too easy to have a wolf there. I'm going to look at other options, then.

x/d with Glirdan, Greenie, Nog, and Boro

[A Little Green]

Just to remind myself of who we have in the village and how many people are snugly dozing off under my reindeer..
Boro - Eurgh. Confuses me way too much right now.
Eönwë - Haven't seen.
Glirdan - No opinion yet.
Inzil - Likewise.
Legate - Seems somehow even more wishy-washy than usual - but then again, he also seems more wishy-washy than last game when he was a wolf, so I'm not sure if that's necessarily a sign of being a Leggywolf. Cobbler?
Lottie - Another eurgh. Right now I'd guess innocent, but then again I wouldn't be surprised if she turned out to be wolves with Shasta.
Nerwen - Can't read her yet.
Nogrod - Hasn't infuriated me yet. Seriously though, some good points have been raised against him and since I don't really have a read on him I'd love a closer look.
Ozban - Looks sharp, which I like. That isn't to say anything about "innocent" or "wolf", though.
Pitch - Not worried about him right now. (And he's safe from my vote toDay anyway, if only for that Hegel remark. )
Shasta - Don't trust him at the moment. I'd love to hear from him before having to vote, but since he has already voted I doubt he'll return. I feel worse about him than about anyone else in the village, but then again I'm doubtful whether - just in principle - it is possible to catch a psychic Shastawolf on Day 1... In short, my head is exploding with scenarios and I'm sure it's unhealthy.
skip - Nothing alarming this far.
wilwa - Likewise.


EDIT: x-ed with Zil

[Nogrod]

Okay. A few people seem to be saying that I'm getting old, rusty and dumb. That might be true. But I'd also want to say that I posted a few posts in the very beginning when there were not too many posts to interact with, and then once in the afternoon when I just had time to read what had happened and had like ten minutes in my hands. So not the conditions for flaring arguments and deep insight based on actual analysis of the posting...

Also I see some of you guys have read my discussions about the cobblers and hunters in quite an innovative way (which makes me suspect you for purposefully trying to paint something black which is actually white). But it may be I have not spelled out my thoughts in a definite and clear enough manner. Anyway, I suggest we discuss those things toMorrow if we are around to do that, for I wholeheartedly agree with those who say, that even if it was a good thing to have that cobbler-discussion et al, we now have some more important things to think about, there being an hour or so time left toDay.

EDIT: X'd with Greenie

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Zil

Hmm. That would seem to speak against those two being wolves together, at least.

Wow, I had forgotten Lottie actually voted for him. Well, that does make them being fellows a bit more improbable. Potentially sacrificing a fellow on Day 1 just like that would seem really stupid - the gain is not worth the risk. Especially seeing as Shasta wasn't really suspected at all until Lottie brought it up.. Everything's possible, for sure, but some scenarios are highly improbable compared to others.


EDIT: x-ed with Noggins

[Pitchwife]

Lottie
So she's abandoned the cautious disclaimers and is going after Shasta in earnest - but since she said he was her only suspect, she could hardly do anything else. Her reasons are still not the best - I mean, Shasta had what, two or three very short posts when she began to suspect him; to spot a wolf on such a small basis would be a psychic masterpiece. Which actually makes me wonder whether Shasta was such an easy suspect at all - wouldn't a Lottiewolf have found more and better suspicion-fodder in the whole cobbler-discussion? Or was she just being lazy and picking an (at the time) almost-submarine?
Problem is, she does have that genuine-sounding tone, and I'd be loth to see her lynched if she's really an innocent going on gut-feeling... Argh.

Shasta
OK, I'll try not to be biased here. Standing by his suspicion of me is OK, I'll give him that (especially as he could have voted for Lottie instead). His reasons - well... to me it looks like he singled me out in the morning as an easy suspect and pretty much ignored everybody else, except when defending himself against Lottie (which includes his passing suspicion of Greenie for supporting Lottie). As for his collection of evidence, I'll leave the evaluation to you.
I don't think his defense against Lottie was overly aggressive, as she claimed. But there's this:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Fair enough, but you don't get to call me 'nonconfrontational' in one breath and then 'aggressive' in the next.

I think it should have been clear that Lottie was referring to his behaviour before and after she suspected him, and muddling that difference to make it look like the person suspecting you is contradicting herself is exactly the kind of defense I would use myself as a wolf (and have).

I'll have to think this over once more, and then vote soonish.

EDIT: x-ed from #71 onwards.

[Eönwë]

Ok, well I'm here now.

I'll try to quickly read through the thread and see if anything jumps out at me...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

skip - Nothing alarming this far.
wilwa - Likewise.

Shouldn't this in itself be alarming?

I mean it goes to everyone anyone of you feel right now, "hmm, nothing alarming there", or "kind of nice, hard to form an opinion", "s/he's been there but not much to say" etc.

Boro was and is right when remarking that the personalities of different individual players determine a lot on whether the player is "Mr. Agreeable" or "Miss Confrontation". But I'd still claim that on most cases - and with most players - they tend to try and be a bit more nice when wolves. Pitch asked whether I was lecturing you guys about general WW-principles back there. Well maybe I was... so many people seem to forget that basic truth about werewolf-behaviour so often, even if they'd theoretically understand the concept.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Really short remarks, as I really don't have time:

I need to take a look toMorrow at those people who mostly just hang around and second others' suspicions or such. I don't recall correctly who all these people were, but I think at least Pitch to a certain extent, maybe Greenie, maybe skip? Not really sure (take this list as random attempt to remember names, I may be writing some totally unrelated name, confusing somebody with somebody else). In any case, I think there is a rather large amount of people who sort of "drift by" like this and sort of jumping on what others said (it may be genuine, just that they had the same idea, or it may not).

Secondly, as for Lottie's vote for Shasta... now of course it might be "they think we are W-on-W, now let's show them they were wrong, and in the best case, they will cease suspecting as and not even lynch any of us toDay!" I mean, just look at it, people really are dropping suspicions after this... I don't know if I shouldn't, too. I would, personally, now prefer to lynch Lottie to shasta, because she was the one who made the vote, so if it was like I just outlined above, then I find her more likely guilty (or if just one of them is a WW, she is more likely to be a Wolf just trying to lynch innocent shasta now, since all of the innocents would have two options, so of course she'd want to make us lynch the other person. But then again, if she is innocent, what else should she do). Why I don't want to lynch her so much, however, is also that she was lynched on Day 1 last game too... but well, well. I will now just take a look at the list of players and see if there isn't any other possible pick...

Hmph. *looks at the post* "Short".

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie and onwards

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Noggins

Shouldn't this in itself be alarming?

I mean it goes to everyone anyone of you feel right now, "hmm, nothing alarming there", or "kind of nice, hard to form an opinion", "s/he's been there but not much to say" etc.

Boro was and is right when remarking that the personalities of different individual players determine a lot on whether the player is "Mr. Agreeable" or "Miss Confrontation". But I'd still claim that on most cases - and with most players - they tend to try and be a bit more nice when wolves. Pitch asked whether I was lecturing you guys about general WW-principles back there. Well maybe I was... so many people seem to forget that basic truth about werewolf-behaviour so often, even if they'd theoretically understand the concept.

I'm not sure if I get your point, but if I do I think you're barking up the wrong tree here. I know that aggressive/contradictory doesn't equal wolf, or agreeable/making sense innocent. I seem to remember lecturing, in previous games, about how people vote for those who play in a different style or are aggressive, and leave the nice and slippery alone. When I say I'm not alarmed by someone, I mean that the person doesn't strike me as suspicious ("suspicious" as in "likely wolf", not "suspicious" as in "strange, contradictory, or aggressive"). Not sure if I made myself very clear, nor sure I responded to the right thing in the first place, but I hope I helped.


EDIT: x-ed with Legz

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I will just go with my initial idea.

++Loslote

Because generally she was the one who seemed to come there and back and back away from what she said in suspecting shasta etc... see my posts before.

Good Night, village... and vote well. And try to avoid any last-minute cross-voting chaos!