WW XXIIX - Queer Lodgings

[Meneltarmacil]

Boromir88, while I do understand why keeping things a secret from the wolves is a good thing, it also creates its own problems. For instance:
-There's no reason to trust what you're saying if no explanation is given.
-Making such a claim could be seen as a good way for a wolf to avoid giving an explanation if there's no good explanation to give.
-If the wolves kill you overnight, your secrets die with you.

I'm really not convinced you're a wolf. However, I do not entirely trust you either.

Also, Kitanna appears a little wolfish to me, with her jumping on Boromir88's suggestion that Rune, Nogrod, and Farael were wolves. B88's suggestion clearly appears to be a typical Day One joke, and doesn't really appear that suspicious to me regardless of whether he's a wolf. I'll most likely vote about an hour or so before the deadline so I can see if anything else develops later on.

[Durelin]

Alrighty...unfortunately I must vote already.

So...going with all I got...

With the little amount of activity there's been, a Wolf has no reason to post much at all, and thus risk drawing attention to themselves. Now, while I find it unlikely that all three wolves would go with this, I think there might be two wolves among those who have barely been noticed and those who have not been around at all.

Possibly.

Maybe.

Both Rune and Kath have posted, but just once, and have drawn extremely little attention to themselves (not that anyone's drawn an extraordinary amount of attention). But they've still done enough (well, simply posted) to not get on the "has yet to post list" that some people tend to have their eyes on. For Kath, this is normal. So for now, I'm not going to even vote for her.

That leaves me with Runi.

++RUNE

Oh, and I know I've contributed...nothing. Sorry, feeling particularly lazy.

[Meneltarmacil]

Yes, Durelin/Ori, it does seem unusually quiet around here. This is the perfect environment for a wolf. They can just relax here and forget about everyone else's troubles the way I would if I hadn't been forced out of my comfortable home on this adventure...

Silence is not going to help us much. While a loud wolf may be a more dangerous foe than a quiet one, the less experienced ones may slip up if forced to speak or may be revealed by their quietness. In any case, talking more should allow us to better see what the everyone is up to and hopefully force some of the wolves out of hiding.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Silence is not going to help us much. While a loud wolf may be a more dangerous foe than a quiet one, the less experienced ones may slip up if forced to speak or may be revealed by their quietness. In any case, talking more should allow us to better see what the everyone is up to and hopefully force some of the wolves out of hiding.

You know, after my forefather (Aule? After all, he was a man of craft... perhaps he did shoes too!!) devised a crazy plan to keep the attention away from his cursed friends (namely, I was the cobbler and I started being loud about my plan to draw attention away from constructive discussion) I realized that there was some merit to my theory.

I'll propose it again now, but I promise not to push it beyond reason

Today is Day 1, we have very little to go on. Tomorrow we are not likely to have a whole lot more. On Day 3 we might have some voting record, but then we might not. Since right now the numbers are in our (the innocents) favour, why don't we rid ourselves of those that do not add to the discussion?

Unless we get a sudden breakthrough I strongly recommend that we lynch someone who was posted
1) Little, without much insight.
2) An larger amount of posts, and yet added nothing to the discussion.

These characters always become a liability by the end of the game since we all suspect them but we don't have enough evidence to lynch them, and we are reticent to lynch someone without enough "evidence". Right now we can afford a few bad lynches, and why not? After all, it is up to each of us to decide what "silent" means and also what a "breakthrough" or "evidence" might be, so it'll still leave a voting record.

Please note that, unlike my evil, cobbler former self, I'm not saying "lynch the quiet ones" but "lynch those that add nothing to the discussion". It so happens that most times they post little as well, for posting a lot of nonsense is bound to get them lynched.

I'd say it's up to each of you to decide whether this idea has merit or not, I will probably follow this theory and I hope my logic will earn me at least a few supporters (so that we can actually see whether it works or not) but I advise against discussing this at length since it'll take away from the actual discussion and wolf-hunting. Unlike last time, I do not want that to happen right now.

As for what has been said before, I can gleam nothing of importance other than some "gut" feelings about the players. Gut can be helpful (if you've played with me before you know that I tend to go by it a whole lot) but I see no point in discussing "this guy feels right, this guy does not".

What I will say, and perhaps I'm playing right into his hand since he has suspected me, is that Anguirel is a prime example of someone posting often but saying little. I think we've all have tried some measure of reasoning, but he has just kept on jesting for the most part.

[Naria]

Aye, I do remember that Durin. T'was very good cobblering indeed, although I wouldn't go around raving about your moccasins...tacky to say the least

I somehow find myself agreeing with your plan this time. Why? I haven't quite figured that out yet. What I also haven't figured out is why you are asking us to believe you. I have a sneaking suspicion that you may be playing the other hand in this village. Force an opinion on the poor villagers in the last and quietly and calmly not force this opinion onto this village(oy, if that made any sense at all). Looking very helpful indeed, while at the same time asking to lynch the ones that aren't as much. I dunno It seems to me like you are doing pretty much the same thing as you did whence you made shoes, only this time it's cleaner and all nice and stuff. You may just be good trying to help, but I got bad vibes from your last post.

KILL NILP!!! he will thank you for it anyway.

Teehee...comical as this is, I think that we should at least let him poke his pretty face(for a dwarf) in and wait and see what our dear Bifur has to say

[Naria]

The little dwarf walks back into the Great Lodge wringing her hands on her sparse beard. "Ehhm, hello?" An echo could be heard ricocheting off of the walls. Fili found a bench nearest to her and quietly sat down and waited to see if someone would answer.

[Boromir88]

Oh boy, Kitanna's post is just screaming wolf into my mind. It just doesn't make sense here...either she's a confused innocent that doesn't know what to do, or she's made a fatal wolf error.

Post #40 here is what I'm looking at...and I just think it screams out wolf. Let's look at some things here...

I hate random votes and I now whatever vote I cast now will most likely be seen as a "safe vote",

Ok fair enough...it could be an innocent genuinely worried about her vote, or it could be a wolf trying to cover her tracks and get an excuse for the next day.

Now after this 'random vote' talk, confuses me and gets me highly suspicious:

I'm uneasy of Dori88, but not enough to vote for him.

I found his post about being sure of Spawn and Farael's innocence unsettling, but with his latest post my mind is slightly (and I do mean slightly) eased when it comes to him. At least for now.

So after talking about her hatred for casting random votes she starts talking a bit of suspicion up about me. I make her uneasy, yet not enough to vote...and that my post naming Spawn and Farael innocent made her uneasy...now my last post before made her slightly feel better (and she stresses slightly). Now what's confusing about this is then she makes her totally random vote for Naria.

She agreed with me before about the 'non-dwarves.' Then seemingly I'm the only one that makes her suspicious? But even more suspicious is she doesn't follow up with a vote for me? She kind of shoves suspicion at me then makes it all better at the end by saying my last post 'slightly relieved her uneasiness' I'm going to be frank and say this, if you find someone suspicious/unsettling; vote for them! Because this here just screams wolf to me...and perhaps this will explain it better. See if an innocent found me to be the only suspicious one on Day 1, I would expect that person to vote for me...since there's nothing concrete to go off of. But Kitanna's post just doesn't make a whole lot of sense if you break it down.

At first she says she's frustrated because she hates having to make random votes.
Then she starts announcing some fairly strong accusations about me...she goes on to make points as to why I make her uneasy.
Then she absolves it all by saying my last post slightly eased the suspicion
And proceeds to cast a completely random vote.

Pretty much she said all in that same post...she has no 'real suspects' then she goes on to point suspicion at me! Then she backs away to cast a random vote. I believe, if Kitanna was innocent I would expect an innocent to go with whatever suspicion they have (as slight or insignificant as it may be...it's still better than randomness). Instead it seems like Kitanna attempted to make some crafty wolf move of telling us her vote was completely random; yet she did find me suspicious and points that out quite clearly.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm back, and I have to say that while catching up, I got pretty much the same impression of Glóanna (Kitanna) as Dori88 here.

Here's what made me uneasy about her.

#9 - 1st post. Quotes Spawn and says that we should take a look at Meneltarbo who hasn't even posted yet. That's all.

Sure, it's a joke, and at that point there was hardly anything concrete to talk about, but looks like a typical 'pumping up the post count' post. Besides, people who agree with me tend to creep me out.

#28 - 2nd post. Looks quite long with all the quotes, but basically she says that she agrees with Dori88 that one of Runi, Bofgrod and Durin could be a wolf, except Runi, and she can't say anything why Bofgrod or Durin would be wolves, either.

She takes Eomi's ( ) talk about names quite seriously, and says that he could be included in a rhyming group, too. Well, in my opinion the others simply do not rhyme as well as Dori-Nori-Ori, and Eomi's post seemed like a normal first post banter anyway, so I'm not sure what caused the need to comment this at length.

Notes that Dori88 is dangerous when he's evil, but an asset when being good. Seems to be feeling a bit uneasy about him.

#38 - 3rd post. Heads-up that she has to vote soon and says that she really doesn't know whom to vote for. Mentiones Dori88 by name, but says that no one has made her truly suspicious of them.

Either she's a scared ordo or then an insecure wolf. Why otherwise trying to prepare a soft landing for a first day vote?

#40 - voting post. Between this and her last post, Dori88 made a comment to say that Glóanna seems suspicious. I wonder if that's the reason why she went for the random mode. She reminds, though, that she's still uneasy about Dori88, but then again, slightly less than before.

But the most unsettling part is that she uses a lot of space for kind of apologising and excusing her vote. She hates to vote so early, but that won't happen again. She hates to vote randomly and talks about it looking like a 'safe vote', but more than that she hates leaving without voting.

So, she just happened to pick one of the silent players who hadn't even posted yet so that this vote wouldn't leave any kind of tracks at all to follow later on. Nice yet quite suspicious to me.


And now, back to taking a closer look at the rest of you.

[Naria]

I have to vote now for the end Day is quite early for me. I have to agree with the points made against Kitanna, as well I did find her vote post to be disconcerting when I read it. I am currently the most suspicous of

++Kitanna

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

So, let's see what Orilin (Durelin) has been up to lately.


As I noted earlier, her first two posts don't have that much substance in them.

#10 - wants to go looking for porter with Voloin

#19 - jokes about Bomburlass, and after Eomi's 'Dori+Nori+Ori = Wolves' theory, defends herself by saying that names such as Bali and Bili rhyme, too.

She seems to be staying out of the conversation and pops in just to make an appearance and mildly (jokingly..?) defend herself.

#36 - says that Nofgrod seems to be in a hurry to kill people. I guess this refers to his post where he explained some of his thoughts about our fellow companions since he hadn't at least voted yet. Before this comment, Nofgrod had just listed Orilin as a suspect.

Says that Kathin is acting normally which is worrysome, and in order to appear mildly helpful, she gives an incomplete list of people who hadn't posted yet and says that they (Nari and Bifur Felagund) are the wolves along with Nofgrod. After that she goes on about Nofgrod being himself and getting away with it (..?) and suggests that we lynch him.

It seems all very playful, but there's this hint of self-defence that I'm not so fond of.

#37 - adds Beornómien to the 'hasn't posted yet' list.

#42 - voting post. Some apologising there, but her tone is already more serious. She says that possibly and maybe:

"With the little amount of activity there's been, a Wolf has no reason to post much at all, and thus risk drawing attention to themselves. Now, while I find it unlikely that all three wolves would go with this, I think there might be two wolves among those who have barely been noticed and those who have not been around at all." ~Durelin

I think this description goes for Orilin herself pretty well. Her previous posts don't have all that much in them, but I don't know it their quantity is supposed to exclude herself from this group that she decribed above.

Says that Runi and Kathin have posted very little, but for Kathin that's normal, so she votes for Runi.

So, I guess she didn't want Nofgrod dead after all. I have to agree, though, that both Runi and Kathin have said remarkably few words thus far.

[Thinlómien]

Look what you have done, stupid dwarves! Brought evil to my house and slain my dear animals. I swear I shall not take any more dwarves into my house ever.

Rhyming names, you say? Have you then forgotten about Bifur, Bofur and Bombur? Shouldn't you be after Bifur Felagund, Bofgrod and Bomburlass?

Next we might hear that the twins are evidently either Bifur and Bofur, Oin and Gloin or Balin and Dwalin.

Originally Posted by Bofgrod

The big one, what was it Valier the Grey said, Beornómien, a shape changer? Looks a clear case to me then.

What? If I already change to penguin I think that's skin-changing enough!

I smell something here:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I would agree with Runi. No dwarf could ever do this. Not ever.

Originally Posted by Bofgrod, in his next post

And just because of that, maybe a little too convenient? That would be a maddening joke indeed, but as all of this looks like a mad-joke anyway, I wouldn't put it past this Necromancer to make it just like that.

I do not think that we should first run at the non-dwarwes just because of their non-dwarvesness, but if one of them turns out a wolf I might wish to try another one just to make sure...

Isn't this a bit contradictory? I mean, first he says now dwarf could do this and then he says that it is not very probable that all baddies are non-dwarves. Of course this is mostly in-character flip-flopping and thus not to be taken too seriously. Anyway, if someone says first that no dwarf is a werewolf, then that "dwarf" does not mean innocent and then returns to his earlier theory of three non-dwarf wolves in the same sentence, it makes me raise eyebrows, even if/as it is mostly in-character.

Originally Posted by Dori88

And can't control herself when she transforms into a bear. But I've seen the wrath, she was even impervious to weapons! There is something evil about that man-bear berserker. Beornomien...'is that your....

Penguin, not bear.

I agree that Glóanna looks quite bad with her "I hate random votes" combined with her random vote and her avid agreement with Dori88 combined with her suspicion of him.

I won't probably be voting Dwancing spawn, Eomi, Meneltarbo or Voloin today, as they all seem innocentish. I'm a bit reluctant to vote Bofgrod, Dori88 or Durael either as they've all contributed to the discussion.

I'm back to reread thorugh the thread. Don't eat all my honey while I'm away! As the bees are slaughtered, there won't be more honey in ages.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

So Dori88 thinks it is likely that a wolf would join the "no dwarf could have done this" course. . .normally I would say that it was not so, but this is day 1 and I am afraid that it could be the best case made.

That leads me to Lord Durin. . .although I tecnicaly owe him my aligance, it seems a bit weird that he should return from the dead only for trouble to follow in his wake. Plus the whole thing about saying that someone will thank you for lynching them really annoys me.

and our good old Nogrod. . .first of all he mistook me and Dori88 and I am greatly insulted by that! But what strikes me as odd is him agreeing with me. . .no seriously. . .it almost never happens and so I get suspiciouse.

[Kath]

Wow, only two pages to read though, I'm impressed!

Alright, so, it seems the main suspect at the moment is Gloanna. The points made over her seemingly over-reluctance to vote are that the post was too apologetic and that there was some backtracking within it. The former of these catches my attention more as a random vote is far less suspicious if just made rather than agonised over - but then if you're innocent you may not be worrying so much about that. It seems unlikely though, in a place where you know everyone else is on the lookout for villains you have to be aware of how your own actions look.

The backtracking I don't think is so worrisome. To me it reads more like someone trying to find a way not to cast a purely random vote but discarding the idea even as they think of it. Yes, Dori88, it does make sense to vote for those you feel suspicious of even if it is just a niggling suspicion, but if that suspicion is of someone high profile where a vote could actually lead to others following suit, if the suspicion is not strong enough that you feel this person should be lynched then not voting also makes sense.

At the moment I am somewhat concerned that we haven't heard from Nilp, as he has usually popped in with a 'lynch me' campaign by now. I don't know what the timezones are like for him at the moment though and they may explain his silence.

The other surprise is Lommy. We should have had a wealth of posts from her by now, though the one she has made had good points in it and she is saying she'll be back.

As for those that have posted there are few that have stood out so far. One that has is Farael, who is surprisingly unconfrontational. He says he is going to advocate his plan again, which caused a lot of arguments in the past, but that he will do it less fervently this time. He also changed his view from 'lynch the silent ones' to 'lynch those that aren't contributing'. Now this is a far better view to me, but the fact that he is saying it is worrying. Farael doesn't do things by halves, yet from the start of the game he has seemed calm and willing to compromise. This may be because he is, in fact, innocent and so is playing differently. Or he is evil and has simply learnt from previous mistakes.

Another who has stood out is Dori88, who seems to be the loudmouth of this place, but I have a natural aversion to those who seem to be taking charge so I am not going to put any stock in my suspicion of him toDay.

The last person to stand out is Meneltarbo because he hasn't been around much, but those comments he has made have been either insightful and helpful or obvious statements. The disparity is odd, and I hope to see more from him later so I can try to make sense of it.

For now though I have to vote as this will be the last time I am near a computer before the deadline.

++FARAEL

I don't wish to vote for those who have not arrived or have not spoken much, and of the three I pointed out he is my strongest suspect. I am suspicious of Kitanna as well but not to the same extent. Her actions could be those of an innocent and I am inclined to give her the doubt for now.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I just realised that both Glóanna and Orilin have already voted, so I assume they won't come back toDay to comment the suspicions of them. Pity.

As to the voting method of Mr. Deathless (of which we're not supposed to blabber excessively, I remember that), I basically agree with it

"I'm not saying "lynch the quiet ones" but "lynch those that add nothing to the discussion"" ~Farael

but that's because those who contribute little often do seem suspicious. However, some wolves tend to be all over the place, I've heard, making up theories and everything seemingly useful. So, if I really am suspicious of someone, I rather vote for him/her whether they seem helpful or not.

But what's with the subtle propaganda here?

"...the numbers are in our (the innocents)..."
"Please note that, unlike my evil, cobbler former self..."
"it'll take away from the actual discussion and wolf-hunting. Unlike last time, I do not want that to happen right now" ~Farael

In his other two posts, Durin seems quite murderous ("I SAY DOWN WITH THEM!!!" "KILL NILP!!!"), but old people are always so grumpy. Not enough stuff yet to tip the scale either way whether he's innocent or not.

And as for the comment about Sir Anguirelshield talking too lightly, it might be worth noting that he retired for a nap after less than six hours since the sunrise when hardly anything serious had been said. However, there is something about Thorin that makes me a bit wary. I'll get back to it when I manage to nail down what it actually is.


edit: Cross-posted... Kath, check the admin thread for Lommy and Nilp's silence.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

It is funny how everybody agrees on Gloanna making wolfish errors. I have to admit that I did not notice them at first, but I suppose I did not read through it ver closely.

I can sertainly understand the points being made against her, but I doubt that I will vote for her today.

I would like to add that Meneltarmacil is the only one that seems inoccent to me. . .if you know what I mean. Hes post are down to earth and has some good points with out being spectacular. I guess it is an easy way to play, but it seems genuine to me.

Another person that I did not speak of before is Eomi, I really feel uneasy about him. . .I don't have a theory as such, but there is just something about him. The way he makes a silly theory and a few random comments and then vanishes and everybody fail to take heed of anything he says other than his confusion over names. Of course it is not his fault how we react to what he say, but he is making me uneasy. Let me say it like this: If he is a wolf he has had a close to perfect day1.

Anyway I think I shall vote soon and that it will be for either:
Eomi
Nogrod
or
Durin

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Farael

Since right now the numbers are in our (the innocents) favour, why don't we rid ourselves of those that do not add to the discussion?

Unless we get a sudden breakthrough I strongly recommend that we lynch someone who was posted
1) Little, without much insight.
2) An larger amount of posts, and yet added nothing to the discussion.

Fool me once
shame on you.
Fool me twice
shame on me.

I shall go out on a limb and say that I still agree with the reasoning behind this plan but it's the execution of the plan that is worrisome. How would it be orchestrated? Who would we trust to orchestrate it? There is the guidelines but how many lynch suspects in a day-too few and it's easy for a wolf to follow suit, too many and it's easy for a wolf to hide. I know that Farael seems to want to do it early on but I say to wait a few DAYS and see who starts garnering suspicions of not really being here. Any way, that's all I have to say about the plan.

I've glossed through quickly to catch up but will have to go back and check things out more thoroughly.

[Nogrod]

I made to this to get myself on the track again and thought it would be useful to share it before I start rethinking the things done and said toDay.

And it seems we are really spreading the vote here...

Eomer --> Spawn
Kitanna --> Naria
Durelin --> Rune
Naria --> Kitanna
Kath --> Farael

Claimed reasons for voting:
Eomer: confused with the storyline names and thence voting for someone who called him, Kili, Eomi.
Kitanna: totally random (picking a number).
Durelin: for posting only once and not drawing attention to him (same as Kath, but with her that's normal)
Naria: agreeing with the suspicions of others.
Kath: for being surprisingly unconfrontational (also slightly suspicious of Kitanna).

[Anguirel]

I'm somewhat ashamed to say that I am here, but pre-occupied and feeling a bit left out. If I feel I have not taken the skeins of suspicion properly on board, I will probably vote for Durin for trivial reasons as I intimated before.

It is unusual, and perhaps a sign of all our grizzled Werewolf experience, for Gloanna to be highlighted as a suspect this early; as a wolf she usually evades trouble. I wonder if that's a sign we are operating on a mistaken basis?

Our host hasn't yet talked much, but I'm sure that'll change soon enough...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I will have to go with Farael. . .

His plan, that I actually do have some sympathy for lacs some detail to make thing clear for me. It seems that he would like us to vote for people who plays in a certain way all the time, but that would be like telling the wolves where to hide. . .This could only work if the wolves naturaly messed up when having to speak up, but we have several tales of that not happening.

I think it is a good thing to vote by those merrits once in a while, but to make it an official plan, that we by the way is not allowed to talk about, seems silly.

and to be honest, I do think that by his own standarts Durin qualifies as a lynch candidate. . .voicing the same theory as his forfathers did (and not really anything else) Is not really contributing with anything new. . it is just Durin being Durin.

Another thing is that I do not want to spread the votes too much more and as it seems that Thorin will be voting Durelin. . .

now for the silly reasons:
1. His comment about Nilp annoyed me. . . . mostly because I took it as semi-seriouse.
2. He claims to have developed a sertain cobbler theory, but from what I have read it seems pretty much like the one TORE used.

++FARAEL

[Anguirel]

Okay. Now that really doubles the stakes. I am now unlikely to vote for Durin the dead unless I actually come to think that he's a wolf.

Hmmm.

[Nogrod]

Some remarks on the posting that has taken (or not taken) place while I've been away.

I can't see how Runi can sort out Meneltarbo as the only one standing out as an innocent. A Runi-wolf would probably not be that bold to speak of his fellow in crime, but what is it then? Puzzles me.

I'm a bit diappointed with Beornómien as she seems not to be her usual and bright self but seems to be bent on picking up only straws and backing already voiced concerns. Now it's always a problem for the werecreatures that they have to artificially build up their cases as they know what they claim is not true. That many times gives their points an air of superficiality, which I'm smelling in her first post in some degree, and making them prone to follow up with leads given by others. But I'm still hoping to see her making it better when she returns.

Bifur Felagund hasn't posted but the internet-connections seem to be the reason. Valier has posted once and claimed for RL-bussinesses. I think they should not be voted toDay for that.

Orilin and Eomi have seemingly left the house for toDay and not left a lot to be said of them. That I find a bit worrysome.

I'll try to have some closer looks / think a bit about the larger picture here.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

It has always seemed to me, Kili, that the value in Day One discussion is discerned after the event. We look back on what has been said in the days to come, as Farael the Deathless points out. All behaviour on Day One can be construed as Wolf behaviour. In all probability, we will only catch a wolf by chance.

That's why this overanalysing and eagerness to find reasoning, at this stage, is quite remarkable.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

All behaviour on Day One can be construed as Wolf behaviour. In all probability, we will only catch a wolf by chance.

That's why this overanalysing and eagerness to find reasoning, at this stage, is quite remarkable.

You're quite right. I'd say quite right. All behaviour can be constructed as Wolf behaviour, on all Days - not only on Day1. But that doesn't mean that we only get wolves by chance - even on Day1. I've seen a wolf picked on Day1 with perfectly sound reasoning a couple of times.

So I would not say "in all probability" but with some probability we'll get the wolf by chance. But why not try to increase our probabilities and aid our luck by trying to look for some actual points? I say it's in our interests to do so - and without it there is much less to be read from Day1 later in the game.

And the eagerness to find reasoning in this stage of the game is remarkable. Yes it is. And I think it a good thing...

[Farael]

Learned from my mistakes? Kath my dear, I won that game and survived to the end (Thanks Nogrod) there was no mistake.

As to how to decide who is silent and who is not, that's the beauty of it... it shouldn't be orchestrated, it should be up to each of us to decide. That way, we force wolves to make a choice and stand by it, which leaves a voting record.

Anyway, I have only a few minutes and so I must go... I shall be back in about two hours.

[Thinlómien]

One thing in Kath's behaviour rings my alarms.

Originally Posted by Kath

. . . though the one [post] she [Lommy] has made had good points in it . . .

Really. That sounds very much like a wolfish "I-say-something-good-of-someone-just-for-the-sake-of-saying-good-of-somebody" -comment, since if you take a closer look at my post, what "good points" I can possibly have there? Those were the few first things crossing my mind after reading the thread. The post consist of crying over dead animals, ridiculing rhyme-patterns, making some jokes/corrections about bears and penguins, making one point (though not even a very incrimintaing one) against Nogrod, agreeing about Kitanna seeming suspicious without adding anything new about her, naming a few innocentish people and forbidding people to steal honey. What on earth are the "good points" over there, I wonder.

[Nogrod]

I thought of looking closer at Eomi's / Kili's posting and well, it turned out interesting.

Originally Posted by Kilimir

#62
It has always seemed to me, Kili, that the value in Day One discussion is discerned after the event. We look back on what has been said in the days to come, as Farael the Deathless points out.

Really? I took a liberty to include all he has said in this game before this last post of his concerning the worth of trying to be rational on Day1.

Originally Posted by Kili

#17
I think Dori, Nori and Ori are the wolves. What Countess of Chance could resist placing the curse on the rhyming three. Certainly not I, Kili, and I'm not even a Countess! That can mean only that she was even more likely to give in to that delicious temptation — if my reasoning is valid, which it is not.

But where did logic ever get us before? We set out on a quest with 13 Dwarves. That's not logic; that's suicide!

Hence: Boromir, Rune and Durelin are the wolves. I, Kili, deem it so.

Originally Posted by Kili

#32
I've no idea who's accusing who. You're all making up names and it is confusing me. I am going to vote for one of the people who, for some inexplicable reason, called me, Kili, Eomi.

Originally Posted by Kili

#33
++DANCING SPAWN OF UNGOLIANT

Previously, to me at least, known as Dwalin. Let us see what comes of it.

So what value is there for us to look back on the Days to come with this posting? Eomi seems to be full aware that things said on Day1 will be looked afterwards and at the same time he seems to take good care of not leaving anything there behind for anyone to take hold of.

So if someone is playing carefully, here we have one. Even the vote could be said to be a safe / random one. And funny he should give his vote as the first of the whole Day as he had time to come back to the game now later...

Fishy, I say.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

One thing in Kath's behaviour rings my alarms. Really. That sounds very much like a wolfish "I-say-something-good-of-someone-just-for-the-sake-of-saying-good-of-somebody" -comment, since if you take a closer look at my post, what "good points" I can possibly have there? ... What on earth are the "good points" over there, I wonder.

I totally agree with you Lommy! A good point, this time!

[Anguirel]

Hmmm. I like the psychological family dynamics going on here...

Runi was actually mistaken in thinking I was on the verge of voting for Orilin, but the option is becoming more tempting now...

And she voted for Runi on specious grounds. Was Runi actually consciously acting against her indirectly?

Bomburlass also suspected Orilin early on. Spawn of Fundin suspects her, but not so adamantly as she does Gloanna.

On the whole I think wolves will be unlikely to be backing each other's suspicions up at this stage. I don't think I would were I a wolf, anyway.

Tricky as ever.

[Boromir88]

I can never ever figure out Eomi...I've just stopped trying. It's useless, he's really the only character I can't get a hold of...this eventually just leads me wanting to lynch him by Day 4 if he's still around.

I say it's in our interests to do so - and without it there is much less to be read from Day1 later in the game.

I completely agree...As I'm sure you're aware of Bofgrod, I have a knack for once finding out the truth about one wolf, getting one of their partners almost immediately...and that is all because of the the way people have interacted on Day 1. I find Day 1 to be quite useful, especially if we do nab a wolf.

Well for today....

Spawn, Darael the Deathless, Bofgrod, and Beornomien all feel innocent to me. Beornomien's attacks on Kath make her look more innocent, especially since there's been suspicion growing around Gloanna...and she could have easily tagged along.

If Gloanna be lynched, I'll be after Lord Anguirelshield and Kath tomorrow.

Everyone else I'm not really sure about. I remember Volo desiring to talk more when he's a wolf...but can't get a feel for him.

Oh and Kath, of course I'm a loudmouth...what would you expect from me?

Edit: x-posted with Ang

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

After rereading everything, I'm not sure what my stance is toward Glóanna because she's been like a textbook case about how wolves used to act, but I can't help thinking that at this point, a wolf should know better than to repeat all the ordinarily wolvish maneuvers.

I figured out, though, what was bugging me with Thorin, and perhaps even more with Eomi. Well, to some extend with Kathin, too. It's the odd phenomenon when people whom I know to be really smart seem to be dumbing down themselves. For example, I don't believe for one second that checking the admin thread for missing information or figuring out the twisted names would have been an impossible task for anyone here, but such behaviour makes it easier for wolves to approach other people and get into discussion.

I do realise, though, that I've spent way too much time on this toDay, and I've voiced suspicions of some sort of pretty much everyone now. I'll come back to vote when I feel less paranoid.


edit: Cross-posted with everyone since #66.

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, I'm going to have to vote shortly, and at this point will vote

++Kath

from what was said earlier.

[Boromir88]

To make a note of this; before I completely forget:

It is unusual, and perhaps a sign of all our grizzled Werewolf experience, for Gloanna to be highlighted as a suspect this early; as a wolf she usually evades trouble. I wonder if that's a sign we are operating on a mistaken basis?~Lord Anguirelshield

This reminds me all too much of the time when Valier and my ancestors were wolves working together.

When my grand-daddy was gathering some suspicion Valier made a brilliant move of trying to get suspicion away from me by saying...'I've noticed Boro likes to insult people when he's a wolf. I haven't seen him insulting anyone so far.' This was a brilliant move to get suspicion away from me, and as it would turn out the wolves did destroy the village.

This comment Lord Anguirelshield makes about Gloanna reminds me all too much of that.

[Nogrod]

As long as our Seer is alive and well, I wouldn’t like to see Dori88 lynched as he can really make a difference when he’s a goodie. The same I would like to say of Spawn of Fundin. Her abilities in analysing are a powerful weapon if used for good. Beornómien also seems to be gearing up and that looks good. Also I would like to have Thorin Anguirelshild with us. His reluctance to vote for Durin after he gained a second vote speaks innocence to me. A wolf might say that, but I doubt a wolf would be so quick to run for that kind of bluff.

I have suspected Glóanna and still do somewhat. Beornómien's point about Kathin was well pointed and raised my suspicions on her a lot. Funny also, that Kathin indeed tried to smootlhy downplay Glóanna's guilt (saying she's suspecting her, but still bringing forwards the possibility of her being just an innocent villager - with some good points indeed). Now Kathin woulde be a wolf with lots of experience and capability to do many tricks and still stay cool. And at that time there clearly was something like a real pressure growing over Glóanna...

It might be a pair of wolves? But at least another one of them I'm inclined to believe is one.

Then I'm pretty unsettled with Orilin and Eomi. Both have been extremely careful. A bit too careful to my taste. I have made a few notes about Eomi just earlier and will take a look at Orilin soon to see if I can add anything of value that has not been said already.

With others I'm quite at loss with...

[Holbytlass]

It seems that Kitanna(Gloin) is acting highly suspicious but what are the odds that she be afflicted twice in a row? But that would be delving into the inner workings of The Necromancer and her ways. Would she be totally random in which GloKit would have a 1/17 chance of being a wolf just like the rest of us or would she tweak the roles for evil amusemsent? We can't know now.


Dancing Spawn(Dwalin) seems a bit too agreeable. Agrees with Boromir(Dori) about Kitanna's(Gloin)suspicios behavior. Agrees with Durelin(Ori) about Rune(Nori) and Kath(Balin) saying remarkably few words. Agrees with Farael(Durin) about his "lynch that add nothing" idea.

She seems to be coming across as agreeable in a befriending sort of way.

++Dancing Spawn (Dwalin)

[Volo]

This is a hard place, I can't find anybody worth enough to get a vote. Luckily there is still time to think.

I actually find Duriel (Farael/Durin) innocentish. I feel that he is confused or then it's just that he hasn't fooled me with that one before.
But on the other hand, he hasn't contributed that much himself either (Oh, who's talking...) and he's logic is contradictory, encouraging random votes.

We shall see...

Meneltarmacil Baggins seems pretty innocent, he has said a few earnest-sounding things.

Dancing Dwalin has contributed well, either she's a loud wolf or indeed of help, I'll just follow her for now.

But Bomburlass, she seems a bit too quiet... She's taking a bit too long to come with her checking. For now, I'll think that she's busy (Aren't we all?).

Thoringuriel... I can't understand this one. He's been around a lot, but nearly all of his talk is in character chatting.

Eomi, like Dorimor88 said, nothing can be found to say about Eomi. I suggest you stop you in characterism for a while and say something. If you ask me, he has contributed close to nothing but seems to be awake.

Orilin, just like Eomi.

More later... From those I find Eomi and Orilin the ones that deserve a vote. But Thoringuriel and Bomburlass also seem to have a potential of being suspected by me.

An other thing I want to ask. What use is there from the Protector? He dies himself, if he protects somebody, that doesn't feel too useful, unless there is a Seer to protect.


EDIT: x:d with Holbytlass

[Anguirel]

I'm now most tempted to vote for Dori88, partly, naturally, because he's starting to show signs of wanting to lynch me, but mostly because of this statement:

Originally Posted by Dori88

If Gloanna be lynched, I'll be after Lord Anguirelshield and Kath tomorrow.

It's typically untrustworthy as it's reasoning based on jumping a death ahead, which always raises my hackles.

Partly because "If Gloanna be lynched" is such an unhelpful first step; really two outcomes in one, namely Gloanna being a wolf and her being innocent.

Partly because it looks like someone with a long game-plan, and the calculation of a wolf.

Partly because it allows him to commit himself to a course of action because of a fairly unrelated event.

Yes, it's troublesome. I've decided, not for the first time-

++DORI88

[Thinlómien]

Bofgrod, you have good points about Eomi. He seems indeed a bit fishy, now that you've pointed it out.

I don't know what to think of Glóanna. She surely is suspicious. But. According to my experience, as a wolf she is quite careful and skilled, and is not easily caught (like Anguirelshield pointed out). Why would she act this "foolishly" this time then? But even as an innocent it wouldn't make sense to be that jumpy and contradictory... I also very much agree with dwancing spawn, who said:

she's been like a textbook case about how wolves used to act

Meneltarbo's vote was a bit odd. It was too sudden. He had not suspected Kathin before. Then he just based his vote on dwancing spawn's and my points about her, without even bothering to specify which "from what was said earlier" made him vote her. I think he was just going with the majority; many people have suspected Kathin, at least slightly, recently. That really makes me uneasy. Yet I wonder would a wolf be this careless after all...

edit: xed with Volo and Ang

[Anguirel]

Oh, and Dwancing Spawn of Fundin, you're right. I'm not on top form today. I'm doing several things at the same time; plotting to defeat dragons, fighting Werewolves, writing a biography of my grandfather Thror, composing a new single, working title Dreaming of Erebor...

[Nogrod]

About Orilin.

Nothing more to add but these:

Originally Posted by Ori

#36
Hah, I didn't even know Kathin had posted...but that's pretty standard for her. Which is always worrisome.

Originally Posted by Ori

#42
Both Rune and Kath have posted, but just once, and have drawn extremely little attention to themselves (not that anyone's drawn an extraordinary amount of attention). But they've still done enough (well, simply posted) to not get on the "has yet to post list" that some people tend to have their eyes on. For Kath, this is normal. So for now, I'm not going to even vote for her.

I'm not sure how to read this. Does this read to her favour or the contrary? She speaks of Kathin and somewhat suspects her but clearly underlines that her little-talking is normal and thence not reason to actually go after her... Hmm. This really could bite both ways.

Originally Posted by Beornómien

Meneltarbo's vote was a bit odd. It was too sudden. He had not suspected Kathin before. Then he just based his vote on dwancing spawn's and my points about her, without even bothering to specify which "from what was said earlier" made him vote her.

Nari made quite exactly the same thing earlier on... going for then favourite Glóanna. So trying to make it the easy way or trying to hide in a supposed majority?

[Boromir88]

Would she be totally random in which GloKit would have a 1/17 chance of being a wolf just like the rest of us or would she tweak the roles for evil amusemsent? We can't know now.~Bomburlass

Well if all villages are completely random, then the outcome of the prior villages have no bearing on the outcome of the current one. Just ask Rosencrantz and Guildenstern and their flipping of the coin. If a coin lands heads 7 times in a row what are the chances that the 8th flip would be a heads? Still 50/50, as the coin doesn't think jee I landed heads 7 times in a row, better do tails now.

Seems to be rather a safe vote for Lord Anguirelshield to make...I'll make a mental note of that as well.

Well see Beornomien, my logic always goes as follow if I think it:
Looks like a wolf
acts like a wolf
smells like a wolf
chances are it's a wolf.
We're always too busy now thinking about double-bluffs and a wolf wouldn't be so obvious, some of the greatest wolves are the most obvious ones! I'm reminded of Alcarillo's amazing performance in a game. Where throughout the entire game everyone was saying Alcarillo was a wolf, but he just looks too obvious and because we kept convincing ourselves he looked to obvious to be a wolf, he won it for the wolves.

On Day 1, I go by who looks like a wolf...don't give me all this other stuff about double-bluffing and 'too obvious to be a wolf.' Meaning, I don't by Anguirelshield's argument and if Gloanna looks obviously like a wolf, on Day 1 I'm going to go with that...

++Kitanna

Edit: x-posted with post 78 and 79