Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[Thinlómien]

I didn't say retractables are not a benefit to the village, because they are, in some situations. I just don't like people toying with them.

And now I'm really going. I'll be back.

[Celuien]

Morning stop in...

++ NILP

Because someone has to vote for him.

And I don't like the lynch SPM, Morm and Fea plan.

Possibly to be retracted later.

[tom bombariffic]

This is going to be an interesting day.

At the moment, no-one has said anything to majorly rouse my suspicions - a symptom of first-day-itis, I suspect. I can't guarantee that I will be back by voting time, though I hope to be, and so I will cast a vote for

++Boromir88

To explain, there were just a couple of niggling things about his long post. He says that

[retractable votes] can be of great benefit to the village

but follows this up by saying that

Since I'm innocent I can't say how retractable votes benefit me

I also found the emphasis on his own innocence very overt.

There is no real evidence against boromir. But the above caught my suspicious attention in a way that no other posts had done so far, so I have voted with my instinct, which is the best way to get started on a group of people with clean slates.

Glad to be in the village.

bombariffic

[Mithalwen]

Just checking in ... going to read but probably won't be able to comment til after work. Busy time in the aura industry....

[Mithalwen]

I have always supported retractable votes and they can benefit the village but I know how annoying it is for the poor dead moderator to keep track. So I shan't change my vote at a whim. I do realise since I am going to be around until fairly near the end of the day it won't affect me so much.

Personally I do find frivolous voting and changing suspicious. The wolves have most to gain, in my opinion, from creating confusion. A vote should always be a serious thing - this is life and death remember not picking a restaurant.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have to get my thoughts down, given that I seem to make a habit of dying on Night 2.

It would seem that my retainers have fled in fear and my mansion is left unguarded. So I have no option but to seek security amongst my fellow villagers, even if not all of you commoners are to my taste (particularly those amongst you harbouring secret fangs and Wolvish pangs). But, as I said, no autographs. I know that it must be a great privilege for you to find yourselves in my esteemed company. But, please, restrain yourselves.

First off, a note to Nilp:

I CUSS CANINE NOTE

Trust me? Well, I appreciate that it might be difficult for you, but you should (unless you are hiding a furry pelt, which is distinctly possible).

Some good thoughts coming out on the Changeling. It is clear that she has potential to be extremely powerful. After all, she will after a few Days have a great deal of knowledge. Quite possibly more than our Seer. And knowledge is power, right?

Each Night, the Changeling will learn the identity of another villager. And she has the advantage over the Seer in knowing her own identity, something the Seer will never know. And if she has the good fortune of actually picking the Seer one Night, she will learn the identity of two villagers that Night. So, although the Seer has an additional Night in which to dream (the Night just passed), the Changeling is likely over time to gain even more knowledge.

So how should the Changeling use that power? Lhuna has suggested that she might use it to benefit the Wolves. The Changeling would be foolish indeed were she to do such a thing. The only way she can win in this way is by assuming the identity of a Wolf in circumstances where, at the end of a Day, the innocents (including her) outnumber the Wolves by one. What are the chances of that happening? It is far more likely that she will die before she is able to get that far. And even if she survives that long, she will, unless she knows the identity of a Wolf who has not already been lynched, have to make an educated guess, and that could go awry.

If, on the other hand, the Changeling uses her power for good, she has a far greater chance of ending up on the winning side. This is because she will be able to use her own knowledge to augment that of the Seer. If both the Changeling and the Seer are able to survive for a few Days, their pooled knowledge will (as I think Nogrod suggested) be sufficient to give the village a great chance of victory. Furthermore, if the Changeling knows the identity of either the Ranger or a Wolf if and when her identity becomes apparent, she will be able to use that knowledge to preserve her life for one more Night at least.

So, Changeling, play for the village. You know it makes sense.

One question, though. Will we learn the identity of the Changeling after she is killed? I assume that we will, but it is important to be sure on this.

And now some thoughts on what has passed already today. First, the votes:

Boro => spawn (spawn-1)
SpM => Fea (spawn-1, Fea-1)
Boro ≠> spawn => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-1)
Caran => Celuien (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1)
Nilp => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1)
Cailín => Lhuna (Fea-1, SpM-2, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1)
Elempi => Form (Fea-1, SpM-2, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1)
Lhuna => TGWBS (Fea-1, SpM-2, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1)
Boro ≠> SpM => Lommy (Fea-1, SpM-1, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1)
Celuien => Nilp (Fea-1, SpM-1, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1)
Tom => Boro (Fea-1, SpM-1, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)

Hmm. Having fun with the retractable votes are we?

I tend to agree with Boromir that, as we have retractable votes, we should try to use them to our advantage. I intend to do so. There are a number of ways in which this can be done, but like Boro I will leave people to work this out for themselves. I agree, Mith, that they should not be used on a whim. But they can be used tactically, and that may involve changing votes a number of times. Yes, Wolves can use them too. But they can also be caught out using them.

Because of what he has said in this regard, I am inclined to trust Boro for now. I am also inclined to trust Nogrod because he has shared some good thoughts on the Changeling role and because he is coming across as genuine. Some good thoughts from him too on the “Animalia” theme, which are worth bearing in mind. As I said, a Nogrod that seems genuine most likely is genuine. Celuien, Lhuna and spawn too are looking more innocent than not in my eyes at the moment, for their contributions to the Changeling and retractable votes debates.

On the other hand, I am currently concerned about the following:

Fea
Form
Lommy
Nilp
Caran
Cailín

Fea because of her reaction to the “suspicions” that were voiced about her. It’s worth looking at exactly what she said:

Originally Posted by Fea

I feel so important that y'all are so keen on me just now. Sad, really... used to be that when somebody tried to kill me, I knew they were evil... or just trying to find out how my Great Glass Feavator works... or getting the recipe for Gobstoppers... you all know the drill, I'm sure, especially with the enthusiasm with which dentists seem to approach my customers.

Nowadays? No... nobody trusts poor Fea. And she's almost always pure as the ingredients she puts into sweets as sweet as she is. Sure, sometimes the sweet is a little nutty, but you know the old saying... Almond Joy's got nuts, Mounds don't. Must be Nilp and Spam don't like Almond Joys, but such is the sad lot of a confectionist working in a small town.

Er, it’s only me who has voted for you and that was a random vote (when initially cast, at least). Boro simply commented on your inclusion of him on your own random list and Nilp mentioned you in passing as part of his “kill the loudmouths” strategy (of which more in a moment). Yet apparently this amounts to everyone wanting to kill you and nobody trusting you. Yeah, right! Methinks ye doth protest too much, my lady. Yes, your reaction is peppered liberally with smilies and banter. But that only serves to emphasise its suspicious nature, in my view. You are indeed one to watch and, contrary to my initial intention, I may just now stick with my vote.

Form and Lommy I mistrust because of their continued railing against Day 1s as being useless. I happen to disagree. There is much that we can learn from Day 1. In my view, some reactions have already quite possibly been rather telling. And what is said today may become yet more useful in the Days to come. It serves the Wolves’ interests to keep Day 1s uneventful, to add little of use to the debate themselves and to remain non-committal. And what better way to do that than to rant on about little else other than how awful Day 1s are. Which is precisely what Form and Lommy have done. Indeed, Lommy went further and sought to muddy the waters of the Changeling and retractable votes debates.

I am concerned about Nilp for his lynch the “loudmouths” strategy, and not because it produced a vote for me. I am all for lynching loudmouths if they act suspiciously. But I do not agree with lynching them just because they are loudmouths. If only the quiet villagers remain at the end, then it makes the Wolves’ job so much easier. That said, this village seems rather short on quiet villagers, and Nilp’s strategy looks like a bold one for a Wolf to suggest, so I am less concerned about him than the others.

Finally, I am slightly wary of Caran and Cailín for jumping on the “early retractable votes bandwagon” which Boro and I started. Seeing how retractable votes were being used by others from the outset, a Wolf would be only to keen to jump in and place an early vote (which may be changed later, if necessary) with little or no reasoning. And that’s precisely what Caran and Cailín did. Caran cast her vote for Celuien, whom I had randomly voiced suspicion of, while Cailín went for Lhuna, generally known as a traditional early lynch target for Wolves. It’s not enough to warrant a vote yet, but I’ll be keeping my eye on them.

As for the remaining villagers, I currently have no view.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Now that's just silly, Sauce. We all know that when I'm a wolf I tell everybody.

No, seriously though. It's day one and all I'm doing is sitting back to watch the banter. That post was purely a "Hey, I'm still around.", only in-character. I saw you having fun with yours and wanted to play. *looks vaguely pitiful and cute* But yeah... I noticed in my last lifetime that when I don't do much but sit back and watch, I successfully identify a vast number of bad guys. Given that and the fact that I'm on a bit of a time crunch right now anyhow, it should work out nicely.

As for retractable voting, I don't plan to partake. My vote will be my vote.

As for the changeling... I'll think more on this aspect of our village and maybe post thoughts later.

[The Saucepan Man]

I take your point about being in-character. You are an astute one, I’ll give you that, which does make me wonder whether a Wolfish Fea would react to what amounted to very little in such a suspicious way. That said, I would not put it past you to be masking with your banter a subliminal message to the village not to lynch you.

Also, if you are pressed for time and content to sit back and watch, why do you feel the need to comment every time that suspicion is raised about you? I note that your reaction is now more subdued. Is that an attempt to redress the previous over-reaction?

I remain suspicious. But I am conscious of the fact that I always find you suspicious, and that this may be clouding my judgement. Moreover, I am judging you on what you have said, whereas there are still a fair few here who have said little or nothing.

OK. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt for now and direct my vote instead to my other main suspect.

- - FEANOR OF THE PEREDHIL
+ + FORMENDACIL

All this ranting about Day 1s does not help the village at all. And he has said precious little else of use, while making sure that his voice is still heard. A vocal yet non-committal villager is a suspicious villager in my eyes.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

A lot of people are acting more carelessly than usual. Yes, it might be just that villagers want to change their style every now and then, but it might also be a wolf with an identity crisis.

The villager's who are looking different in that sense are Boromir, Formendacil and perhaps Cailín.

Form seems more frustrated and complains about Day One more than usually. He has posted twice, but he hasn't really said anything. There's no need to decide beforehand that Day Ones are horrible and act in a gloomy and unhelpful way, you know. There are other sides in this game, too, than scrolling through pages and pages for making analyses. I find Day 1s to be great - only a bit different from the rest of the Days.
Form has no suspicions since he can't associate a turtle with any of the villagers, so he gives a heads-up concerning his comings and goings.
He says that things are going normally, and he'll be back when someone has managed to make themselves a lynching candidate.

Boromir, on the other hand, is more fickle than usual. First he posts in character that he wants to assassinate spawn, and he says that things doesn't look good.

He isn't surprised to be found on Fea's list of "Big Scary Things", but he says that Fea's vengeful attitude is going to get her into trouble. Is that a... threat? He votes for spawn.

Boromir points out that the votes are retractable, and he sure is taking an advantage of that. He changes his vote for Sauce, and says that he's saving Sauce from being ripped apart at Night.

He defends retractable votes, but doesn't explain how they're going to help him. Boromir gives an example how these votes benefit the wolves, but doesn't tell how he thinks that they help innocents in general. He votes for Lommy because she said that retractable votes can confuse us and he disagrees.

I think the votes cause confusion because it's harder to keep track of how many votes someone currently has, and why someone changed their opinion. I expect to see some interesting "excuses" for changing a vote as the Days pass by which might later help those who have ridiculous amounts of time to browse the voting records while making analyses, but madly voting anyone who crosses your road isn't the only way to take advantage of the new system. Since everyone knows that they can change their votes whenever they like, casting a vote doesn't have the same weight in gauging lynchees' reactions since, especially toDay, I suspect that people want to have a bit of fun with voting for each other before they decide on their final vote.


Cailín has been hastier and more careless than usual. On the other hand she's a tragedienne, but she has been quick to accuse people with "Day 1" reasons. She voted for Lhuna because... it was in the script? However, this has been crazier first Day than normally, and that voting frenzy seems contagious. She promised to be more like herself later, so I look forward to that.


Sauce, that's a good way to tally the votes, I think. If only I could find a button in my keyboard for making that unequal mark...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by spawn

I think the votes cause confusion because it's harder to keep track of how many votes someone currently has ...

Here you go m'dear:

Boro => spawn (spawn-1)
SpM => Fea (spawn-1, Fea-1)
Boro ≠> spawn => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-1)
Caran => Celuien (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1)
Nilp => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1)
Cailín => Lhuna (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1)
Elempi => Form (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1)
Lhuna => TGWBS (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1)
Boro ≠> SpM => Lommy (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1)
Celuien => Nilp (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1)
Tom => Boro (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)
SpM ≠> Fea => Form (SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-2, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)

Originally Posted by spawn

[Boro] defends retractable votes, but doesn't explain how they're going to help him.

I can understand how he might use them and why he's not prepared to explain this for the benefit of the Wolves.

Originally Posted by spawn

Since everyone knows that they can change their votes whenever they like, casting a vote doesn't have the same weight in gauging lynchees' reactions since, especially toDay, I suspect that people want to have a bit of fun with voting for each other before they decide on their final vote.

Just because someone can change their vote, it doesn't mean that they will. I still think that there is much that we can learn from the votes, even today.

Originally Posted by spawn

Sauce, that's a good way to tally the votes, I think. If only I could find a button in my keyboard for making that unequal mark...

Try cutting and pasting from Word.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

If only I could find a button in my keyboard for making that unequal mark...

I'd just copy and paste Faster, overall... especially since the only other way I can find is inserting a symbol in Word.

Day 1 nonsense aside, so far I'm most suspicious of The Saucepan Man... And not because he said he was wary of me. His plea for the Changeling to take the villagers' side conveniently included instructions on exactly how the Changeling can win on the wolves' side. And he pretty much argued that s/he should take the villagers' side because it would be easier to be on the winning side that way. But that looks like a manipulative argument to me, as the Changeling would likely take it as a challenge to do the more difficult thing... Who among us would read that and think, "Okay, I'll take the easy option"? No, we all want grand tales to tell at the end. And I think this Changeling is a threat because of this ego factor.

--Celuien
++The Saucepan Man

EDIT: Cross-posted with The Saucepan Man

[Nogrod]

Spm: you are making a lot of sense - at least I see it that way. And if my suggestions have not been enough until now, please Changeling, read Spm's post #46 and think once more for this:

=Spm
So, Changeling, play for the village. You know it makes sense.

That's your bet!

Well, surely it's possible that the game gets into a situation where the Changeling has a chance to decide the game (knowing or guessing a wolf in a 50-50 situation and killing a villager for her/him and the wolves to win - well: 50-50 + the Changeling - I suppose the Changeling is counted as a villager in the tally?). But that chance is not the most probable, particularly if the Changeling plays for the village and reveals her/his knowledge at some point! And if it goes the bad way and the Changeling wants to assure her/his victory, well, I don't see us others having any means to stop the Changeling there. That's the role given to this game and we have little means of stopping her/him in that situation. But loyalty to the good cause...

But I would be a bit worried about a widespread use of the retractable votes. I see one good use for early retractables, namely the chance of getting the behavioristic "action - reaction" -stuff with them from an overjumpy wolf. I do not deny the value of this one. But if the overall feeling about them is that it's just some playful villagers toying with them, we could lose some wolvish trials for bandwaggoning in the midst of them. I could see the wolves trying something like that: let's see if this lynch-proposal gets some support, if not, let's change and try differently! Or they could just hide the wolves in the making the Day1 just one piece of mockery.

And here I agree with Spm again, we just draw different conclusions: I believe Day1's are good days, for about half of the games I've been in a werecreature has been catched on Day1! So let's keep looking around... and let's not waste them with just making fun of them. If everyone plays the trickster, it's hard to see, who's the evil trickster. If everyone plays openly, the wolves will have harder time to hide themselves...

PS. I have a bunch of exams to read and have to commit a lot of time to them today, but I will be back later and try to be more particular then.

EDIT: X-posted with Spawn, SPm and Caran...

[Kath]

1) Sauce, you know how I feel about anagrams, keep them out of your posts please.

2) You have misunderstood the role of the Changeling somewhat. What side the Changeling is on depends on the person they choose at Night. If they choose a wolf they are then evil for that Night, and so will not help the village. The Changeling can't decide whether to play as an innocent or not, it is decided by the roles of the players they choose.

[Durelin]

*clang*

*hiss*

*smoke*

*woosh*

Fashionably late.

The only thing anyone is able to make out for several minutes is the faint glint of a forehead protector.

Then...

*sching*

*thunk*

In the confusion of the smoke bomb, a kunai flies from out of the mist, fixing itself in a conveniently placed tree. Attached to it, is a mysterious note, tendrils of mist still sliding from its mysteriously torn edges.

The note reads:

++The Man
(Saucepan)

Appropriately following the airborne message, Durelin wanders lazily from the mist, her right eye busily reading over a shady looking manuscript, her left covered by her forehead protector.

We must work as a team if we are to succeed. For this, I suggest teamwork.

[the guy who be short]

I was under the impression that the Changeling played for whichever side's character they had assumed for the Day.

Sorry to come to the discussion so late. I was out hunting Pokémon from early in the morning. I only saw the odd Pidgey. There was a time when a walk in the woods would yield a score of Pidgeys and a swarm of Caterpies. I think the Pokémon have been scared off by these werewolves, or possibly killed. But mine shall not yield so easily.

I have tried to contact the soul of Kath through my Haunter. Unfortunately, he is too high a level and ignores my orders, so we shall have no success in that direction. We must rely on what little skills we possess ourselves.

As for those who suspect me simply because I have a fondness for Pocket Monsters - what can I say against your folly? I have no Wartortle. My Squirtle, while I do have one, is completely under control and was safe in his Pokéball last night. I shall use my Pokémon to help the village, not to destroy it.

Nilp - I'm afraid I have no Electabuzz; I did capture one once, but I freed him later because I don't really see the point in owning many Pokémon at once. It doesn't allow bonds to develop. As for Zapdos, you've got to be kidding me.


Pokémon aside, I think those of you - Saucey - claiming that Day 1 can be of use are wilfully blinding yourselves. All but two of those on the village's side have no information at all to work on except our own blind accusations. Those two we do not yet trust. Day 1s are all about the wolves doing everything they can - or nothing at all - to confuse us.

Therefore, I shall vote at random. My vote shall not be retractable because no reason will be convincing enough for me to alter my stance.

My abacus tells me to vote for:

Shift Ran# x 18 + 1 = 2.656

++CAILIN

For having a role that would be spelt differently were she male.

[The Saucepan Man]

Voting update:

Boro => spawn (spawn-1)
SpM => Fea (spawn-1, Fea-1)
Boro ≠> spawn => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-1)
Caran => Celuien (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1)
Nilp => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1)
Cailín => Lhuna (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1)
Elempi => Form (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1)
Lhuna => TGWBS (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1)
Boro ≠> SpM => Lommy (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1)
Celuien => Nilp (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1)
Tom => Boro (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)
SpM ≠> Fea => Form (SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-2, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)
Caran ≠>Celuien => SpM (SpM-2, Lhuna-1, Form-2, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)
Durelin => SpM (SpM-3, Lhuna-1, Form-2, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)
TGWBS => Cailín (SpM-3, Lhuna-1, Form-2, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1, Cailín-1)

Interesting that the "Sauce bandwagon" (if that it be) appears to be gathering steam. You could do worse than lynch me today, but you will not find a Wolf.

Any particular reason for your vote, Durelin?

Originally Posted by Caran

[SpM's] plea for the Changeling to take the villagers' side conveniently included instructions on exactly how the Changeling can win on the wolves' side. And he pretty much argued that s/he should take the villagers' side because it would be easier to be on the winning side that way. But that looks like a manipulative argument to me, as the Changeling would likely take it as a challenge to do the more difficult thing... Who among us would read that and think, "Okay, I'll take the easy option"? No, we all want grand tales to tell at the end. And I think this Changeling is a threat because of this ego factor.

What curious reasoning. I would have thought that the Changeling would already have worked out how she can win on the Wolves’ side. Perhaps you are right about the Changeling relishing the challenge but, if it were me, I would go for the better bet.

Originally Posted by The Almighty Kath

Sauce, you know how I feel about anagrams, keep them out of your posts please.

Ulp! Consider me suitably reprimanded.

In my defence, the anagram was included as a joke in response to Nilp's expressed desire for revenge. So that there can be no misunderstanding, it simply declares: “Sauce is innocent”.

Originally Posted by The Almighty Kath

If they choose a wolf they are then evil for that Night, and so will not help the village. The Changeling can't decide whether to play as an innocent or not, it is decided by the roles of the players they choose.

Interesting. So presumably they cannot deliberately choose to kill a Wolf and must kill a Gifted if they know of one. And presumably, the converse also applies. If they choose an innocent or a Gifted, they must try to help the village. That does rather fetter their discretion at Night.

But, as I understand it, they still have discretion to play as they see fit during the Day. If so, I think that my reasoning still applies. The Changeling’s greatest chance of winning is still with the village. So, during the Day, they should play on the village’s side.

I have been pondering this “Animalia” theme further. As Nogrod reminded us (and it speaks in his favour), each of us chose an animal at the outset. Presumably those animals will be associated with us in some way. If so, the eagle and the tortoise may, as Nogrod suggests, be the choices of those who are Wolves. Although, if that is the case, why only two animals?

In any event, might it be worth speculating who may have chosen the eagle and the tortoise? I don’t want to lead the village on a wild goose chase, but we should consider every angle. My initial thoughts are as follows:

Eagle – A dominant personality? Someone who sees themselves as a leader? Religious and imperial associations? Form, Boro and morm seem the most likely candidates to me. (I suppose it could also apply to me, but I did not choose the eagle.)

Tortoise – Either someone with a wry sense of humour or someone who sees themselves as laid-back. Lhuna, Nilp, Lommy and Durelin spring to mind on the former reasoning.

I may be way off beam here so, if you think that there may be any merit in this theory, feel free to share your thoughts.

[the guy who be short]

Saucepan...

"Day ones are useful! Honest!"

"Let's analyse Kath's starting post!"

Spot the inconsistency.

NB: Quotes may not be represented accurately.

[The Saucepan Man]

Guy ...

Where is the inconsistency?

Why are you attempting to shut off potentially useful avenues of discussion?

You may not like Day 1s, but that does not mean that we should not at least try to use such means as are available to try to find a Wolf.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Do you really believe that Ye Moddess Goddess would intentionally include clues as to the identities of wolves in her very first post? I'm a bit surprised at the insinuation when there's a far likelier explanation for the choices.

[Findëasëa]

SPM-the eagle and the tortoise may, as Nogrod suggests, be the choices of those who are Wolves. Although, if that is the case, why only two animals?

My impression is that the animal that we each chose is one which will, somewhat humorously, aid in each of our deaths. This is supported by the fact that Kath, I think, was a turtle farmer in a 'previous life'. As for the eagle, It might have been another favorite animal of Kath's. If multiple animals continue to pop up in the deaths I think that we should revisit this theory, but it will most likely be a waste of time, as I doubt hints would be left in the narration.

X-posted with TGWBS, Sauce, and Fea

[the guy who be short]

As Fea says, the Moderator must be completely impartial. Kath would not insert clues about Werewolves in her first post. It is likely she created her death to parody either nature or Discworld.

Though I'd like to apologise for the earlier post; it does appear a bit sarky. Perhaps I should have made greater use of smilies.

[Mithalwen]

*Still at work* so shush ..I think but can't check that a famous philosopher was killed by a turtle dropped by an eagle ... or a character from mythology ..a greek anyway... hope to be back soon .... but my Guru is a workaholic....

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Fea

Do you really believe that Ye Moddess Goddess would intentionally include clues as to the identities of wolves in her very first post? I'm a bit surprised at the insinuation when there's a far likelier explanation for the choices.

Well, each person's choice of animal is a secret known only to the Moddess and the person in question. But, if there is anything in it, you are right that they would constitute clues based on knowledge of people's personalities. I tend to agree that it's unlikely such clues would be given, but I still think that, unless and until specifically denied, it's something worth considering.

Besides, the choices of animal must mean something, right? Possibly they will only serve for narrative purposes, but I'm a sucker for conundrums and so cannot ignore things like this ...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Mith

I think but can't check that a famous philosopher was killed by a turtle dropped by an eagle ...

Aristotle, I believe.

[Mithalwen]

Yes that was the chappie... anyway I think we shouldn't get too distracted by such things which are liable to be a wild goose chase... Even on Straw Clutching Day...

[The Saucepan Man]

OK OK. Forget the animal theory if you don't like it. Personally, I will bear it in mind, but that’s my choice.

Perhaps those who have devoted their collective energy to poo-pooing it could put forward a few ideas of their own.

Or is it only me willing to risk talking myself into the noose?

[Celuien]

Popping in briefly between tending the ketchup trees...

Skimmed the recent developments, and I don't like this SPM bandwagon at all. I noticed absolutely nothing suspicious about him and I'd hate to lose him so early without good reason.

Will try to return in a few hours with more.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Celuien

I noticed absolutely nothing suspicious about him and I'd hate to lose him so early without good reason.

Actually, I have noticed a lot about me that looks (or has been made to look) suspicious. But it's most certainly not how a Wolvish Sauce would act on Day 1.

Still, a healthy dose of suspicion can sometimes be a good thing - provided it doesn't get me lynched.

[Cailín]

The tortoise is likelier to be Kath's favourite animal (though frankly: I cannot see at all why. They are endlessly dull creatures) than that of the wolves. But you figured that out.

Some people have commented (particularly Lommy) that I seem less reasonable than usual, while I am actually seldom reasonable on (the start of) Day 1. Don't get me wrong, I love Day 1s and they usually reveal far more in hindsight than you'd think, but I like a bit of random silliness before I start taking things too seriously.

Kath's message about the Changeling is a little disconcerting, but what Sauce says is right: the Changeling still has a choice during the Day. Since the Changeling only wins on the wolves' side in an extremely specific situation, also explained by Sauce, s/he is likely to root for the villagers. However

Who among us would read that and think, "Okay, I'll take the easy option"? No, we all want grand tales to tell at the end. And I think this Changeling is a threat because of this ego factor.

Though I disagree with Caran's vote for Sauce based on this alone, I can think of some people in this village who indeed may think: if you all want me to do this, I'll do that. Of course, leading the village to victory is a grand feat as well and I think eventually everyone's survivor instinct will win. Unless Nilp is the Changeling, in which case we are doomed.

As far as I can see, the only immediate downsides of the Changeling are the following:

- if s/he dreams of a Gifted and a wolf next
- if s/he dreams of the Seer and make the Seer double dream (i.e. dream about someone they already know the identity of)

Unfortunately, it is not something s/he can avoid.

Otherwise, I am not too concerned about the Changeling just yet. Hunting him/her down early seems senseless as well, seeing as s/he could function as another Seer and will also easily be confused with the Seer. So though we may not like the power this one holds, I guess we will have to let it go for now.

The wolves are our primary targets. They have great and evil powers too, with the summoning of aerial turtles and all.

I have never played with retractable votes before so I am not quite sure how to handle them just yet. I don't find the early votes at all suspicious (though I might be biased ) since they are really quite similar to random accusations. Boromir, however, seems to have made it his life goal to make the afterlife for Kath as difficult as possible and though I'd love to cast a few more random votes for people I have never voted for, I shall restrain myself for her sake.

Formendacil may be a wolf, I don't know, but he always is the same on Day 1 -to everyone's annoyance- and I don't see anything truly different about him. Of course, Form is skilled enough to not change behaviour in any role.

OK OK. Forget the animal theory if you don't like it. Personally, I will bear it in mind, but that’s my choice.

Perhaps those who have devoted their collective energy to poo-pooing it could put forward a few ideas of their own.

Honestly. Go solve some crossword puzzles.

[Cailín]

Suspicions eh?

So far I am completely unsuspicious of the following:

Celuien - who is reason embodied, as always.
Spawn - who for the first time in a while seems to be genuinely on the right side again
Nogrod - just a generally warm and fuzzy feeling.
Tom & Fin - for being newbies (I am right in that, huh?) who actually attempt to make sense.

The rest of you I am less sure about. As always, I cannot think Sauce anything other than innocent, but actually believing in his innocence would make me look extremely naive.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Tortoise – Either someone with a wry sense of humour or someone who sees themselves as laid-back. Lhuna, Nilp, Lommy and Durelin spring to mind on the former reasoning.

You think I don't have penguin?

Sauce, either you were careless or then you're intently framing me. You said that I was very anti-Day1. What about this:

Originally Posted by me, in post #40

Day One is pretty useless on Day One, but on the next Days, it is usually even more useful than one could suspect.

So I'm not completely anti-Day1, you see. I just dislike them on Day1s.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Personally I do find frivolous voting and changing suspicious. The wolves have most to gain, in my opinion, from creating confusion. A vote should always be a serious thing - this is life and death remember not picking a restaurant.

Exactly.

Bombariffic's point about Boro is interesting. He doesn't sit right with me either... The last time I complained about frolicing with retractables Form changed his vote to me, just like Boromir here, and if I recall correctly, he was a wolf. Form, if you remeber I'd be gald to be sure. There's also the possibility that it was in Valier's game, and then Form wasn't a wolf... Anyway, I see no reason for an innocent to act like that.

edit: xed with Cailín's later post

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

OK OK. Forget the animal theory if you don't like it. Personally, I will bear it in mind, but that’s my choice.

Perhaps those who have devoted their collective energy to poo-pooing it could put forward a few ideas of their own.

Or is it only me willing to risk talking myself into the noose?

No, I fully intend to risk my neck as soon as I have had a chance to make a few notes. I merely think that it is a better to concentrate on anything other players may have let slip rather than the moderator. I just think that the turtle was an amusing reference to those of us who care for such things and to set the pattern for our "daemon"'s witness of our death. If it suggests anything it might be that we should seek empirical evidence

OK before I get down to work, a token "in character theory". All the village should take the homeopathic remedy Aconite to cope with the shock of Kath's death. Aconite is not also known as Wolfsbane for nothing. The innocents will be destressed and the Wolves dead. Simple eh?

Right I will now search for people with black or dark red auras....

[Thinlómien]

What if we all posted our favourite animals (the animals we picked) here?

I know it might not benefit the village since the wolves will probably bluff, but I can't see a way it could harm the village either.

I think we shouldn't place too much faith in finding animal clues from the narrations because there are some people who very probably know each other's favourite animals: me and Nogrod, Lhuna and Nilp, maybe Nilp and spawn... I think it would be quite careless from the mod-Kath to use them as clues then.

If you ask my opinion, the animals are probably for death narrations, nothing else. We'll see at the end of the Day if I'm correct.

The tortoise is likelier to be Kath's favourite animal . . .

As far as I know, Kath prefers turtles to tortoises.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Lommy

So I'm not completely anti-Day1, you see. I just dislike them on Day1s.

Fair enough, but I still don’t see much substance in your contributions. Even if you don’t like Day 1s while you are in them, that is no reason not to put forward ideas, theories and speculation in the hope that it may just catch a Wolf. Only the Wolves want Day 1s to be unproductive.

So, building on my earlier thoughts, it seems to me that the best course of action for the Wolves on Day 1 will involve trying to avoid saying or doing anything that may come back to haunt them later or which may help the village. They will be non-committal, put forward few theories (certainly nothing controversial) and generally do their best to maintain a presence while saying nothing that will draw attention to them.

Of course, it is always possible that there will be an “in your face” Wolf who will be going for the bluff, behaving in a way that no one would expect a Wolf to act on Day 1 and thereby hoping to avoid being lynched, while confusing and misdirecting the village at the same time. However, that’s a risky strategy as, once suspicion is garnered, it tends to stick. I would be surprised if more than one Wolf (at most) adopted this strategy today.

With that in mind, I would divide the village as follows:

Those who have not yet said or done enough to draw any conclusions
Mith
morm
Lmp

Those who have maintained a presence while contributing little to the debate (possible Wolves)
Form
Lommy
TGWBS
Tom
Caran

Those who have contributed little, but nevertheless attracted attention to themselves (possible bold Wolves)
Nilp
Fea
Durelin

Those who have seemingly made a useful contribution (likely innocents, but possible cunning Wolves)
Lhuna
Cailín (solid recent contributions)
Celuien
Nogrod
Findëasëa
Spawn
Boro

If I had to place myself, it would be in the third category, but others may feel that I belong in the second.

For current purposes, I am ignoring the category 1 villagers, for lack of data. I doubt that any of them will remain as quiet as they are currently being.

I believe that there is at least one Wolf, possibly two, in category 2. All of these villagers, to varying degrees, look to be exhibiting the kind of behaviour that I would expect from a Wolf on Day 1.

As for category 3, I have residual suspicions of Nilp and Fea, but they are waning. I don’t think that either would be foolish enough, as a Wolf, to allow themselves to fall into this category. Mind you, Nilp has form (courtesy of his ancestors) in this regard.

There is quite possibly a Wolf in category 4 (possibly even two, but unlikely, I think). That is the Wolf that we should fear the most, but it is also the one that we are least likely to catch today.

I am still inclined to view Nogrod and Boro as innocent, for reasons stated earlier. And I remain content with my vote for Form.

[Findëasëa]

I think that the issue of retractable votes should be looked at in greater depth. The wolves know each other’s identities and have been given the opportunity to strategize. They are better equipped than the gifted and ordinary villagers to work as a team, as they need not worry about trust. This, I feel, makes retractable votes all the more useful for them, it can be utilized by the team of wolves much more readily than by the village as a whole. Although I am sure that the wolves will be protecting themselves by not all taking a stance in this issue or taking different stances, my guess is that at least one would want to make sure to establish themselves as a retractable voter. This way, suspicion would not be thrown their way upon utilizing this tactic later in the game.
This is a list of the individuals who have voted alredy and how many times they have voted.
Boro => (3)
SpM => (2)
Caran => (2)
Nilp => (1)
Cailín => (1)
Lhuna => (1)
Celuien => (1)
Tom => (1)
Durelin => (1)
TGWBS => (1)

I am not sure that a wolf would argue as strongly as Boromir did on this issue, then again the wolves probably want to make sure that this tactic is able to be utilized later in the game. Boromir sets up a defence for future votes, saying that he did not want to reveal his thought process, as it might aid the wolves.

Since I'm innocent I can't say how retractable votes benefit me. That will only give the wolves clues to my thought process, and inside information to my own mind. And that's not good, if the wolves know their victims they are much more dangerous. So, I prefer to with hold information as to some things that I feel like doing (retracting votes for instance).

This seems like a convenient way to get away with not jusifying votes.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Fair enough, but I still don’t see much substance in your contributions. Even if you don’t like Day 1s while you are in them, that is no reason not to put forward ideas, theories and speculation in the hope that it may just catch a Wolf. Only the Wolves want Day 1s to be unproductive.

I don't put forward ideas? I disagree.

Tom & Fin - for being newbies (I am right in that, huh?) who actually attempt to make sense.

Fin has played in one game before, I believe.

Any comments on my revealing the animals theory?

Originally Posted by Sauce

Those who have maintained a presence while contributing little to the debate (possible Wolves)
Form
Lommy
TGWBS
Tom
Caran

Tom??? He has posted only once! How do you call that "maintaining a presence"? Sauce, that's not your first alteration of what happened toDay. Whether they are intentional or unintentional, you scare me...

[The Saucepan Man]

I don't understand all this suspicion of Boro. Nor do I really understand Tom's argument against him. If he is innocent and using retractable votes as a tactic, then I can fully understand why he would not wish to explain his reasoning. Why bother setting a trap if you are going to place a ruddy great signpost next to it? His actions speak more of his likely innocence to me, than of likely Wolfishness.

I just can't see a Wolf acting in the way Boro has on Day 1. Perhaps I am wrong, and he is taking me for a fool. He is one of those capable of pulling off such an approach as a Wolf. But I think it unlikely. It would be pointless for a Wolf to be so bold as to change his vote three times in the early part of the Day, before many others have even voted. What purpose would it serve? To make it more credible when he changes his vote at a more crucial point? It seems unnecessarily risky if that is the only purpose.

I'm sticking with my gut feeling on Boro.

[Caranlondien]

Well, since the Changeling's role has been clarified, I'm inclined to leave it alone for the moment and focus on the wolves. Hmm, I wonder if The Guy Who Be Short's Poké Balls would capture them...

Tom & Fin - for being newbies (I am right in that, huh?) who actually attempt to make sense.

For the record, Fin isn't quite a newbie - she's played in one game (erm, I mean, she has one ancestor... well, that doesn't quite make sense). Doesn't really matter, though... She's looking innocent to me so far.

As for my vote for SpM, I know my suspicion was very little to go on, but it's Day 1, here. I've never played with retractable votes before, so I'm taking advantage of it. So, pretty much, I changed my vote to SpM because I wasn't quite positive I'd be able to get back toDay, and I didn't want to leave my silly vote for Celuien standing. However, I think it'd be a shame for poor ol' SpM to live through only one Day yet again. Especially since he'll be valuable to the village if he's innocent.

Problem is, I'm not quite sure who to vote for now. Boromir seems to be sowing a bit of confusion, but I think he's just having fun with Day 1. Actually, I'm most suspicious of the ones already flying under the radar - dancing spawn, mormegil, and LMP, for instance. There are others, obviously, flying under the radar, but these three I have experience with and know they'd make cunning wolves. Since I have a bit of time on my hands, I'll go back and re-read before casting my final vote.

EDIT: cross-posted with Lommy, and SpM... darn slow Internet connection...

[Findëasëa]

Tom & Fin - for being newbies (I am right in that, huh?) who actually attempt to make sense.

Sorry, I missed this before. I have played in one game.

Any comments on my revealing the animals theory?

It sounds like a good idea. Even if the animals, as I suspect, are only to be used in death-narratives of the person who supplied the animal, it would be good to put this theory to rest. The animal that I chose was the sea otter.

X-posted with SPM and Caran

[The Saucepan Man]

I'm keeping the animal theory to myself for now. I don't want to clutter the discussion up with what many seem to think (and understandably so) a red herring. And I see little point in revealing our chosen animals, at this point at least, as the Wolves will only lie if there is anything in it.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Tom??? He has posted only once! How do you call that "maintaining a presence"? Sauce, that's not your first alteration of what happened toDay.

Are you purposely trying to interpret everything I say against me? Tom has said a darn sight more than morm and lmp, even if it was only one post.

My categories were based on my impressions of each villager, rather than the number of posts. His one post notwithstanding, Tom came across to me as someone who was trying to make his preence felt, but saying little of use. So I put him in category 2.

He isn't, however, high in my suspicions as, given that he is new to the game, I am prepared to cut him some slack for a day or two.