WWJ IX: Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë

[Macalaure]

Sorry to bore Diamond even more, but


Pros and Cons of Phantom's plan (as I understand it):


pro: The seer will have a good chance to hide from the wolves.

Originally Posted by Boromir

A talented and gifted Seer can effectively stay hidden without having to do this.

Yes, but

pro: If the seer is killed by the wolves nevertheless we always have his list, whatever happens.


con: If everybody has his own "If I was the seer, then"-list, then the wolves can cancel out everybody who has a wrong guess on his list as a possible seer. No good. So the real seer has to mix at least one wrong dream into his list.

con: This plan is likely to handicap and confuse us in the "theories"-section.

[Valier]

Wow I don't think I've ever been called eccentric before....nice....

I for one also think all this ww 101 is boring, we know how the game works and I think if everyone left seer hints, all us Ordo's will have more of a hard time picking out the WP's. I understand why you think this is a good plan, but I am sure the Seer can take care of themself for at least awhile. I will be around for most of the day today, so I will be making a list shortly with who I think the baddies and goodies are.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

con: If everybody has his own "If I was the seer, then"-list, then the wolves can cancel out everybody who has a wrong guess on his list as a possible seer. No good. So the real seer has to mix at least one wrong dream into his list.

con: This plan is likely to handicap and confuse us in the "theories"-section.

I'm not sure what you're getting at with your cons, Macalaure. At this point the seer has had one dream, any other hints he/she drops will be mere guesses on his/her part. I'm pretty God awful at math, but the chances of a non-gifted innocent villager getting another innocent right in their phony predictions is pretty good, and the WP know who is innocent and guilty so it'll be harder for them to cancel out whose really gifted and who's trying to confuse them. The seer wouldn't have to mix in a wrong dream.
But this is the last I'm going to say on the seer plan because there are more important things to focus on as the day draws on.

[Anguirel]

Ah, fair ladies, what a fanbase you are...

Ahem. I can see in retrospect that maybe I wasn't playful enough, and I sympathise entirely, I mean, you brought me along for the entertainment and I seem to have been rather dull. I heard a lay, long ago, about the Lord of Evil Morgoth before Tulkas captured him, and how he used to turn minstrels that bored him into tortellini.

But personally, I'm not quite sure I'm so desperately guilty as charged. I might not have been playful, but, as spawn herself readily admits, there wasn't all that much to play with at the time of writing. Yet I had to churn something out as I had picked out that section of the morning for my main period of imput, leaving the rest for some work.

Now, naturally, you've called me away for rather harder work. I feel a thousand bills trained on my effete minstrel frame. Yep, bills.

Originally Posted by Spawn

His first post is a noble attempt to make an analysis with minimal amount of material. Maybe a bit too noble, actually.

The island resonates to my gulping at this point. Should've guessed it from that tricolon earlier. Incidentally, Ungoliantina m'dear, what happened to your Firefoot and Roa analyses? Not enough material?

Originally Posted by Spawn

At that point ten people had posted and he picked six of them (who had posted once or twice) to inspect. All the statements of the villagers contain a positive and negative side, but we don't get any kind of a real conclusion of that. Yes, it's hard to tell, but that hardly provokes discussion and it's something a WP would want to do in order to appear helpful.

The stringent criteria for my choices were simply the ones that caught my interest. I might as well criticise you for not examining Firefoot and Roa-though in fact I'm not going to do so. I was saying as much as I could and what I genuinely thought, not just some vain controversy-courting gauntlet-chuck challenge. Seems it didn't pay off.

-He said that he likes fighting with phantom, but phantom makes sense. Ang is suspicious of phantom until he's proven innocent, but he agrees with phantom's points.

Yes, that's what I said, and I meant it. Unlike the redoubtable phantom, I don't instantaneously see a case against anyone I choose to accuse. Now (as with Saucy in an earlier adventure) I suspect phantom but am damned if I can justify my fears. He's just as usual; indeed predictable.

In Ang's second post he answers Macalaure that the Seer theory has two sides, but phantom's plan seems pretty good unless he is a WP. Next thing he says that he'd rather not have hints at all because we should concentrate on the enemies instead of gifteds. To me the plan isn't about concentrating on gifteds, but trying to distract the WPs while we pay attention to catching them.

IE...this is your "not flip-flopping exactly, but" point. I don't regard so called flip-flopping as an invariable crime. To me a post should be a fluid unit of thought not length, and if you start at a different position from where you began it can actually be helpful.

About Seer-hints vs their lack-you're frightfully keen on pushing this, spawn. I simply think not doing something en masse is rather easier than doing something en masse. If we go along with the plot, some will hint, and some won't because they're individualists, or foes, or nervous Gifteds, or just don't like the plan. This gives the penguins a framework which may ultimately harm us more than them.

He asks if phantom wants to go with his ancestor's plan about lynching volunteers and says that he'd not support the idea.

In his third post Ang just refers to his ancestor and explains why he thinks that lynching volunteers is a bad idea. Well, why to bring it up in the first place, then?

You emphasise my leaning on "ancestral" advice, and I don't much like the implication that I'm a wicked, superior pseud who just rises above the press with a few tedious anecdotes. Now I'm not only a second-rate jester, but rather a bore as well.

I brought up that phantom theory because the phantom, as I said, is enormously predictable and having seen him wave about his tired old Seer hint plan, crafted many, many moons ago, I was interested in whether he was sticking with the rest of his usual manifesto too. I was sort of carrying out a preemptive strike against those smug flourishes of his that we all know and love.

All in all, Ang has been more, well, not necessarily flip-floppy, but careful than what I would have thought. I don't get the usual innocent feeling when reading his posts, and having no certain opinion about anything looks penguinesque, so I look forward to his future posts.

And vice versa. I continue to have the highest regard for your analysis.

Now, I suppose I'd best pick a target for you bloodthirsty masses to be amused by. Get back to my duties as the unwitting Cobbler. I am forced to vote early, but will attempt to round off some fairly token reasoning.

[Kitanna]

Anguirel's last post is what I like to see. Mainly because it sheds a bit of light on him. Anguirel is extremely quiet when he's evil, making one or two posts a day and slipping under everyone's radar. So far he's made four posts, which is more then he'd have made as an evil. His defense also speaks pretty well of him. However there are also a few posts that Anguirel brought up in his last post that worry me as well.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

The island resonates to my gulping at this point. Should've guessed it from that tricolon earlier. Incidentally, Ungoliantina m'dear, what happened to your Firefoot and Roa analyses? Not enough material?
...
The stringest criteria for my choices were simply the ones that caught my interest. I might as well criticise you for not examining Firefoot and Roa-though in fact I'm not going to do so. I was saying as much as I could and what I genuinely thought, not just some vain controversy-courting gauntlet-chuck challenge. Seems it didn't pay off.

Though Anguirel makes a reasonable point about Spawn focusing on him and not Firefoot and Roa. He says he won't make a case of it, but he brings it forward twice so that no one forgets Spawn went for him and not the other two. A reasonable post, but a bit of it feels like him trying to throw the suspicions off himself and onto Spawn.

Yes, that's what I said, and I meant it. Unlike the redoubtable phantom, I don't instantaneously see a case against anyone I choose to accuse. Now (as with Saucy in an earlier adventure) I suspect phantom but am damned if I can justify my fears. He's just as usual; indeed predictable.
...
I brought up that phantom theory because the phantom, as I said, is enormously predictable and having seen him wave about his tired old Seer hint plan, crafted many, many moons ago, I was interested in whether he was sticking with the rest of his usual manifesto too. I was sort of carrying out a preemptive strike against those smug flourishes of his that we all know and love.
vote early, but will attempt to round off some fairly token reasoning.

Once again he brings up the phantom and his natural distrust for him. Seems like overkill, he made it clear he doesn't trust the phantom in his first few posts, but he brings it up too often for comfort. We all have certain players we distrust because of what has happened in the past, but there is no need to reinstate that point in almost all one's posts.

Now Anguirel's defense of himself and his talkative nature show him in an innocent light. But throwing Spawn's suspicions of him onto her and his constant phantom points give him a more guilty façade.

[Boromir88]

ps. Please, people, read the rules, and you'll find playing much easier.~spawn

That's always been my problem, I skim through the rules, and it's probably going to get me into trouble one of these days. I want to get right straight to the start, and get going, I don't go through the set-up as much as one probably should. I find rules to be boring and think that there should be none except the bare minimum to keep from an all out frenzy from going on.

It can be just a choice of words or whatever. Ask Boromir because he can seereally how that is to be done.

Oh boy a trip down memory lane. Funny thing is it looks like I just did a little typo and didn't put in a space, but actually it was done on purpose...fun times.

I'm finding it interesting (not suspicious, necessarily) that already we've had two people try to do full out analyses on everyone (Valier's doesn't really count, I'd expect stuff like that on Day 1)... to be quite honest, I wouldn't have thought there enough material to be worth doing them. For myself, I'm not really seeing anything particularly notable or suspicious yet...~Firefoot

For me it's setting up what's coming up next, in that I was getting down sort of the first "feelings" of everyone's post. Most people had posted by this time and many more several times, and I was remarking upon the type of feel that I got from their posts, which is all leading up to what I'm doing soon.

I'm not trying to squelch conversation. I'm trying to turn it from fruitless cobbler-and-see talk to penguin catching. I've been in 3 separate villages where an evil villager was lynched on the first day, and I'm the last person you'll see complain about not having much to go on on day 1, especially since I ascribe none of those kills to luck.~Jenny

My fault then and this makes you seem more innocent in my eyes. I still stand by that it will be beneficial to lay down plans and ideas that our gifteds may want to consider. It's their own decision to come up with, but just some ideas for them to think about. I agree only good to the penguins can come out of someone saying "I think so and so may be the Seer," but was pointing out this was not the case. It was possible strategies being discussed, not actually naming anyone. And that response there makes you look innocent to me.

So now onto what I was talking about before and the kind of feel I got off of people's post. These are the ones that to me, as of right now have a more innocent look to them:

Spawn
Jenny
Eonwe
Valier
Macalaure

Most of them I already explained why they appear innocent before. Spawn for her input on Anguirel she seems innocent. I don't know yet what to make of Anguirel, but Spawn's input is beneficial, helpful, and usually I don't suspect the one's who announce stronger suspicions this early. For it's a bold move for a WP to stick their neck out and first really start the suspicions.

Unsure, now these following people could really go either way. Some have a more innocent feel to them, but wouldn't put it past them if they were a WP. Others there's just nothing definitive to go off of and outrightly declare them in the other two categories:

phantom
Firefoot
Naria
Encaitare
Diamond

phantom always has strategies always appears helpful, and right now seems to be more innocent. There's nothing that cries out penguin, but the scary thing with phantom is he'll play the exact same whether he's innocent or not. He'll be proposing ideas, talking strategies...etc, be it he innocent or evil penguin.

Firefoot, hasn't said a whole lot yet, seems to be more observant so far today. Perhaps that's just because there's really not too much out there. Again, like phantom, I like the advice from her so far, but it wouldn't surprise me if she was a wolf.

Naria and Encaitare both haven't posted anything yet. Well Naria did, but I'm not counting that. So, I can't make a decision on them yet at all.

And Diamond has just confused me so far. The cobbler business seemed awkward to me, I'm glad she came out and explained it more, but she's not done anything to make me feel like she's innocent like the "innocent looking" group.

And those who seem strange and since I'll be gone for 2-3 hours then come back, one of these people will most likely get my vote today.

Roa
Lalaith
Anguirel
Kitanna

Roa has come in established a presence in the village, but really hasn't if you know what I mean. Also, as I remarked before I don't agree with the "don't throw around theories or baseless arguments," and what do I propose you want us to do to catch a penguin miss Guardian?

Lalaith is the one I'm probably most concerned about right now. I said in my last post I didn't see anything that caught my alarm, but now with her recent post there have been a few things:

Talks about the confusion caused by the cobber, and also agrees with phantom, that the cobbler doesn’t know anything, but then seems to say it is important to lynch him anyway, which is I think what Roa was saying.

If you read through more carefully yes I agreed with both phantom and Roa but they were two seperate points made about the cobbler. I said yes to phantom saying the cobbler's guess to who the penguins are as good as an ordinary villager...meaning they don't know. And I agreed with Roa that the cobbler's death would be a positive for the village. Now this comment didn't seem to strange to me at first but it's what comes after:

Looking over it, I'm quite interested in a few things, such as people who seem to be taking up two points of view simultaneously

I am also having bad feelings about my old comrades in evil, Boro and phantom.

It just seems like she's trying to nudge suspicion towards other people. Not outrightly make a stance, just kind of saying "hey I have a bad feeling about them," or "this is odd" (and then something that was misinterpretted). Just seems to me that she's trying to get suspicion nudged towards other people without risking a lot.

Anguirel, I must say Spawns comments were very intriguing on Anguirel. At first it seemed to me like Anguirel was going off with what he had at the time, but good points have been raised against him. I'm going to hold off until he gets back.

Kitanna, she's looking suspicious not as a penguin but as the cobbler. Comes in with the first post, but I must say Kitanna you have confused a lot of stuff. Which means I don't think a penguin would be this clumsy so right now you feel like the cobbler.

This is also a good plan because if a non-gifted villager drops a subtle hint on who they think is guilty and turns out to be correct the penquins may kill him/her thinking they had gotten the real seer. Of course we would lose an innocent in the process, but our seer would be intake.

Actually phantom's plan (as I have read it, again correct me if I am wrong) was not to hint guilts, but to hint innocents. Because phantom argued that if someone is hinting guilts and it's not one of the penguins, then the penguins know that person must not then be the Seer. So, to cover the seer it's hinting innocents therefor the penguins have a harder time finding the seer, not guilty ones as you have seed.

Boromir said he doubts phantom would be such a double-bluffer, today I'm inclined to believe that.

Actually I said of everyone in this village I expected phantom the most likely to pull a double-bluff.

Kitanna's made a few misinterpretations it looks like, seems too clubsy to be a penguin, but very well could be the cobbler.

[Boromir88]

...just cross posted with a bunch of people, but I have to go for now so will be back later with more.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Anguirel's last post is what I like to see. Mainly because it sheds a bit of light on him. Anguirel is extremely quiet when he's evil, making one or two posts a day and slipping under everyone's radar. So far he's made four posts, which is more then he'd have made as an evil.

I know this is against my interests, Kitanna, but actually that's piffle. I've been cursed twice and on both occasions I talked constantly right until I was dragged, flailing, kicking, biting, and howling, to the gallows and the gibbet-the only exceptions being when I was away.

I always talk a lot, I think. Not Lommyesque quantities, but quite a lot nonetheless. I'm a sort of middleweight loudmouth.

Oh, and that stuff about dragging Spawnowen through the coals about Firefoot and Roa and then disingenuously claiming I wasn't accusing her for it is a good sighting by you, but it was, sort of, intended as a joke. Basically it means I've been struggling with too much [Latin] oratory today. Cicero, er, Feanor, uses that technique all the time in his polemics...

Mentioning the phantom a lot. Well, how could I not. I mean, he is Eru, isn's he?

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Actually phantom's plan (as I have read it, again correct me if I am wrong) was not to hint guilts, but to hint innocents. Because phantom argued that if someone is hinting guilts and it's not one of the penguins, then the penguins know that person must not then be the Seer. So, to cover the seer it's hinting innocents therefor the penguins have a harder time finding the seer, not guilty ones as you have seed.

I know phantom's plan is to hint innocents, but I'm saying hinting a guilty can benefit too, incase the innocent's hint happens to be right.

PS: Anguirel, I got you confused with someone else. So my point about you being quiet is no longer valid.

[Valier]

Hmmmm I just noticed this...Phantom are you aware that you have again placed an arrow in your posts? Are you trying to make yourself look good? Or is this a plan to make people think you are gifted? Sorry but I find that weird. I think You would indeed make a good and well played stinky Cobbler! The things you say sound good, so people tend to follow you, and adding the arrow again to your posts, suggests you are false in some way.

[Macalaure]

Chance of a regular innocent to pick one other innocent now: 12 out of 15

Same after one lynching and one killing: 9 out of 12 (if no wp is lynched)

12/15 * 9/12 = 3/5 a chance for an innocent to pick two other innocents. Only a little more than 50-50. The wps can single almost half of us out as possible seers. And that after two days! Way no good.


But I think we can abandon all this for the reasons Ang gave, anyway. It's unlikely that all innocents will join in...

[Anguirel]

Right. Well, I do share some of Boromir's concerns about Lalaith. She's in an extremely neutral position. She grandly, but quite languidly, sanctioned dancing spawn's angle on my nefariousness (though considerate as ever she was prepared to factor in IRL) and then casts a rather wide net:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I agree that Ang should be watched closely - also Di, who can hide much behind the kooky facade, and Macalaure, so keen to emphasise his newbie status and yet able to worst phantom on the cobbler issue.

However, she's fishing in a pretty wide sea, after all, so perhaps she can be excused. Unless my metaphor turns out to be literal and pinquoid, of course, ho ho.

The thing about me being "one of nature's Cobblers" stung rather, I confess. But I shouldn't let that affect my actions unduly.

Neither am I going to vote for the phantom. I do not condemn him, only his Master Plans, which Macalaure has proved adept at ripping apart. I don't much like plans. Particularly at this stage.

I will probably vote for Eonwe or Kitanna-decision and reasoning pending.

EDIT: Kitanna-just a guess-did you confuse me with Formendacil? We are actually twins separated at birth, y'know.

[JennyHallu]

Macalaure...maths always make me nervous, but shoddy maths make me downright suspicious.

Our proverbial villager-er-iceberger can discount himself, knowing his own innocence, so his first pick is out of 14, not 15. 3 are wolves: therefore his chances of correctly naming an innocent is 11 out of 14.

On day 2, assuming we have lost 2 innocents, he is down to 12 choices. His chances are now 9 out of 12.

But you are assuming randomness, and that simply does not hold. An iceberger does not, perhaps, know anything, but neither are we incapable of intelligent analysis. The more information we have to work with, the higher the chance of being correct in our analyses. And each innocent revealed by death increases the real information we have, and makes analysis even stronger. I have great faith in the power of these icebergers!!

[Diamond18]

Valier, tp almost always uses the arrow in his posts.

[Anguirel]

Right. My case on Kitanna was basically founded on her way of being-like Lalaith actually, but at greater length-a backer, not a starter. She qualifies and hedges and does not greatly disagree with those going before her. I also thought she might be obscuring truths with layers of theory, but it's dawned on me she just made a couple of mistakes.

So with little time to lose I am going to have to vote for Eonwe with the shoddy justification of his quietness. I really must dash soon or I won't get any supper-I'll try to get back before the deadline and possibly retract but I fear it will be tricky.

Better a pretty lame vote than no vote at all, eh?

++EONWE

[Firefoot]

Though Anguirel makes a reasonable point about Spawn focusing on him and not Firefoot and Roa. He says he won't make a case of it, but he brings it forward twice so that no one forgets Spawn went for him and not the other two. A reasonable post, but a bit of it feels like him trying to throw the suspicions off himself and onto Spawn.

That caught my eye too. Actually, more interesting to me is that Spawn brought up Roa and myself in the first place at that point... I only had one post, and it wasn't exactly a very weighty one either. Not exactly much to look at. There might be more now, I suppose, but not much... as Anguirel noted, I'm sort of in observation mode at the moment. Day 3 is usually about when I start getting it in gear, maybe Day 2 if the village has been active.

But you are assuming randomness, and that simply does not hold. An iceberger does not, perhaps, know anything, but neither are we incapable of intelligent analysis. The more information we have to work with, the higher the chance of being correct in our analyses. And each innocent revealed by death increases the real information we have, and makes analysis even stronger. I have great faith in the power of these icebergers!!

Exactly. And it's a lot easier to pick out an innocent than a penguin.

[Macalaure]

Jenny, I got the counting wrong. You're right, it's 11/14 and the second day it's 8/11 then, because you can't pick the same twice. But that's even worse actually. Enough of that.

Why does Ang vote for the silent Eonwe, when Enca has been even more silent?

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

con: If everybody has his own "If I was the seer, then"-list, then the wolves can cancel out everybody who has a wrong guess on his list as a possible seer. No good. So the real seer has to mix at least one wrong dream into his list.

No-one talked about lists. Having lists won't be a good thing.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I know phantom's plan is to hint innocents, but I'm saying hinting a guilty can benefit too, incase the innocent's hint happens to be right.

I think normal cases work better than hints when trying to deduce who's guilty.


Anguirel, you are far from a bore, you know that, but that wasn't the point. Also, not everything I write is meant to accuse. This, for example...

"At that point ten people had posted and he picked six of them (who had posted once or twice) to inspect" ~Spawn about Ang

...wasn't an accusation, I'm just clearing the backgrounds.

Originally Posted by Ang

Incidentally, Ungoliantina m'dear, what happened to your Firefoot and Roa analyses? Not enough material?

Ooh, I got a new nickname? Thanks! (Although I like the old one even better.) Yes, you're right. That and lack of time. Roa has posted only once, and even though I could have made a case out of that, I wanted to see if there would be something funny in her other posts, too, or if it was just a first post thing before I accuse her. It was pretty much the same with Firefoot. Besides, I don't want to say out loud what caught my attention in their posts before I have more evidence. But hey, at least we got some discussion going on so that certain experienced players won't get bored...


I'll vote soon, but I have no idea yet who shall get my vote. I'll go rereading a bit.

[Diamond18]

Alright, well, here's my "this is my gut feelings on people" post. I'm probably totally off base as usual, but hey, one must participate as much as one is able.

Valier - seems her usual self, nothimg much to comment on, could be anything.

Diamond18 - Quack. Or whatever it is that penguins say.

Naria - One little post. Naria's usually quiet, but this makes her dangerous. I worry.

Macalaure - New, outspoken, feels genuine and innocent. Tied with Ang for most posts so far.

Lalaith - Only two posts and does a rather early analysis. Hmmm. Not sure what to think.

Firefoot - Feels innocent.

Jenny - Feeling innocent to me so far, she's posted a bit more than in the last few games, almost reminds me of when she used to actually be on the good side. So, feels innocent.

Roa - One post? Roa, why aren't you posting?

phantom - Feels okay for now.

Boromir - Seems quite innocent.

spawn - Feels innocent

Kitanna - She seems a bit too outspoken and somewhat careless in some of her points to be a KitPenguin. Evil Kitanna, note, is usually very careful and nearly impossible to find fault with.

Encaitare - No posts. Interesting. I've never played with Enca and don't know any of her habits. Could someone enlighten me?

Anguirel - Feels okay. For now.

Eonwe - Quiet, a bit shady.

I'll be off for a bit but back before the deadline to vote.

[Encaitare]

As usual, I'm writing my post as I catch up on what's happened. And as I mentioned in the WWJ thread, 10 PM GMT doesn't work out so well for me (as it is 6 PM EST), hence my latecoming. RL circumstances cause me to have to vote now or never.

Now for my observations...

Phantom is his usual outspoken self, which is great when he's an ordo... because as much as I hate to admit it, he usually has some pretty good ideas. His suggestion in post #20:

Originally Posted by tp

I would recommend that everyone drop a hint of innocence about a fellow villager or two in the following days as if you were the Seer and had dreamed that person innocent. That should make it easier for the Seer to hide.

makes me feel like he is innocent. Then again, he is an experienced player and knows how to bluff well.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Giving seerish hints while not being seer and being as reasonable as possible doesn't mix to me.

Even though Phantom uses the phrase "as if you were the Seer" doesn't mean that every suggestion that someone is innocent means you're behaving in a Seer-ish manner. Above, I just said that I think the phantom is innocent, but that is based on what he has said thus far rather than me trying to fake the WPs out.

Voting at present:
Eonwe: 1 (Anguirel)

It looks as though I really didn't miss much in the past 21 hours... most of today's discussion does seem to be "Werewolf 101," as it's being called. I'm going to reread the discussion and cast my vote in about half an hour.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Diamond.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, I typed this as I read through, so it might be a little messy. Also, I'm going to go back through, now that we're near the end of Day 1, to analyze a few people who have peaked my interest. These are people that don't sit right with me, so I'll be back. Also, I apologize for my long absence- I was kept busy with some RL things.

Originally Posted by phantom

Well yeah, but if that situation comes up a clever villager could preempt the WPs and step forward and claim to be a WP and demand that the Cobbler vote with him. Then perhaps a real WP would step forward to contest the claim? Then it would be up to the Cobbler to decide who was the real WP.

In your scenario, the other villagers would have to figure out which WP was which as well, thus creating general confusion. It would hurt the village more than it would hurt the WP's or the cobbler.

To everyone- I believe spawn already said this, but the seer knows what he/she is doing. Leave them alone, and let them figure out their own plan. It's up to them if they drop hints or keep quiet. I've seen both be useful to the village, and it will depend on the seer and what they wish to do.

Originally Posted by Boromir

Roa there is a common misconception about theories, everyone seems to think it's just baseless and preposterous. Now a true theory is a hypothesis based UPON facts. So, the facts are sitting out there and then based on those facts you form a hypothesis which = theory. And for everybody except the wps and the Seer all we have to find the penguins are theories. Which means taking facts, like what people say, how they vote, who's killed...etc taking that knowledge and using it to present a hypothesis that is backed up by facts (aka a theory).

I never said I disliked theories, just that I'm better at analysis and summaries, like the one Lal provided. The truth is, you can postulate all day long, but in the end hard evidence, like what is provided in summaries and analysis, can't be denied with any sort of reasonableness, unlike a theory which can be shown false. In the end, you can't deny a fact. But that is neither here nor there- we all have our own way of playing, and we are all pretty good at it.

Originally Posted by kitanna

Once again he brings up the phantom and his natural distrust for him. Seems like overkill, he made it clear he doesn't trust the phantom in his first few posts, but he brings it up too often for comfort. We all have certain players we distrust because of what has happened in the past, but there is no need to reinstate that point in almost all one's posts.

While I trust Ang about as much as I trust anyone (ie, not at all), the point made here is faulty. Ang was answering the suspicion against him stated by Spawn, not trying to continually point out his distrust for phantom. His repeat of Spawn's focus on him is suspicious, but not this. After all, he was questioned for it- we'd suspect him more if he refused to answer.

Originally Posted by Boromir

Roa has come in established a presence in the village, but really hasn't if you know what I mean. Also, as I remarked before I don't agree with the "don't throw around theories or baseless arguments," and what do I propose you want us to do to catch a penguin miss Guardian?

As I stated previously- I said I wasn't one for theories, but I never said don't state them. I did, however, say that we should be wary of baseless arguments, because they are, in fact, baseless. Trying to get someone lynched with no real reasoning is highly suspicious to me. For example- I will be the first to say Valier's instincts are scarily accurate, but I won't simply go along with her suspicions if she is unable to back them up in anyway. I cannot, and maintain my intellectual integrity. Are you suggesting that we simply ignore reasoning all together? I will not follow an illogical suggestion.

EDIT: Cross posted with Diamond and Enca- don't worry, I'm here, I've just been tied up.

[the phantom]

No time right now- I'm on a quick break at work. I'll be back later.

I just wanted to say that, for reasons which I'll reveal later if I feel like it, I strongly believe that Mac is innocent. He took my innocent bait, you might say.

[Lalaith]

Well, I'm sorry so many of you are bored. I'm not.
I think we've had some rather interesting responses so far.
Firstly, the joint prodding of Spawn and myself have done wonders for Ang - he seems to be back to his charmingly prickly self. (There, do you feel better now, Ang? "Nature's Cobbler", I only meant you had an inherent sense of mischief. Honest...)
I also cast some aspersions elsewhere, and there have been some interesting responses to that, too. Two people say they find analyses boring/pointless, and then do fairly lengthy analyses themselves. Diamond, your last post, you go through everyone and basically say you think they are all innocent? What was the point?
Then there is Boromir. I mention him in my list of suspects, he retaliates by putting me at the head of his list, and seems to be quoting from two of my posts implying they are from the same post. He also seems to have read my initial post more carefully than he appears to have done...something I have seen werecreatures do before.
Like I said, it's all very interesting. But then, maybe I'm easily pleased.

[Encaitare]

My suspicions upon rereading the thread:
- Lalaith, because I feel that a detailed post analysis so early looks like the person is trying a bit too hard to appear helpful.
- Spawn, for singling out Anguirel when it doesn't seem as though he's any more suspicious than anyone else.

I would like to remind everyone, especially those who are suspicious of people because they are quiet, that more posts does not equal more likely to be innocent! Some of the best werecreatures have been very vocal, outspoken players. Yes, silence from players is frustrating because it gives the others less to work with. But unfortunately, we all have RL to deal with... like me, right now. I therefore cast my vote for

++ LALAITH

Probably wrong, but it's as good a guess as I can make at this point.

Current voting:
Eonwe: 1 (Anguirel)
Lalaith: 1 (Encaitare)

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Diamond, your last post, you go through everyone and basically say you think they are all innocent? What was the point?

It's my feelings on everyone. So sue me if you all feel mostly innocent.

Though, if you'll notice I did not actually say "I think everyone is innocent." I could either suggest you go reread my post or just point out that I have slightly niggling feelings about:

YOU
Roa
Eonwe
Naria
Enca
Valier

Okay, now I'm really off for a bit.

[JennyHallu]

Yay for one retraction. The end of my embroidery duties approaches, and at about this time daily I must take a short constitutional before true relaxation begins. Sometimes I make it home and back to iceberg duties by nightfall, and sometimes I do not. Therefore: a vote!

++a phantom

Because I distrust "innocent tests" with reasons withheld. Even a seer looks for bogus reasons for his trust, and trust or distrust granted without reasoning doesn't help anybody.

This may or may not change. I don't know.

[Macalaure]

Nah, I can't resist to do a "Who I feel is evil or not"-post, though I don't think it will contribute much.


Anguirel
Said in post #44 that most probably not everybody will join Phantom's plan. - Now what would be better for the wolves than a seer-hiding-plan only half of us participate in? So, he feels quite innocent right now.

Boromir88
Good analyses. No suspicions about him as yet.

dancing spawn
Difficult to read for me. Have to keep watching her.

Diamond18
No idea.

Encataire
Seems quite innocent - at the moment.

Eonwe
?

Firefoot
Feels innocent.

JennyHallu
I cannot give a reason yet, but she does not feel good to me.

Kitanna
I don't want to repeat the points already made: Suspicious.

Lalaith
Leaves me with a weird feeling. I wished I felt better about her.

Naria
...

the phantom
The "Looks foul but feels fair"-type. As nobody here sees him/her-self capable of reading him, I surely don't.

Roa-Aoife
Feels fine with me.

Valier
Would be high on my suspicion list, but since many said she acts like always, she's alright for now.


So, few innocents, few suspects, many question marks, as one expected.

Originally Posted by phantom

I just wanted to say that, for reasons which I'll reveal later if I feel like it, I strongly believe that Mac is innocent. He took my innocent bait, you might say.

Ah! uh... well, thank you.
But, please, share your thoughts.

[Valier]

I've been reading through and just wanted to say a little bit about my thoughts on each player so far.

Ok so on my list of potential WP's I have Anguirel, Naria, phantom.
I think the points Spawn made about Ang were sound and having played with Ang before I know he is a very compatent werecreature. I know for a fact that he will still attack and argue and banter even if he is a baddie which makes him dangerous. Naria on the other hand is always quiet and hard to judge, making it easy for her to slip by. Now I have only played with the phantom once and I see that he did use an arrow in his posts there, but I find it distracting. It makes me think he does it on purpose to mess with people like me.

Others I find iffy so far are Mac, hiding behind a newbie status can help when used right, but all the math so early on in the game makes me leery.I think Eonwe is always a potential threat and needs to be watched or else he too can slip by undetected for a long time.

Most of the others I either have no idea about yet or they feel innocent. Jenny, Spawn, Boromir, Diamond, Firefoot are in my feels innocent list.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I just wanted to say that, for reasons which I'll reveal later if I feel like it, I strongly believe that Mac is innocent. He took my innocent bait, you might say.

Unless the whole thing was orchestrated by you... One thing that I find interesting in Macalaure is that he (she? Apologies, but could someone confirm that) seems to be aware of the subtleties of the Cobbler role and how a Seer can hide, for example, but messes up some basic things. Seems a bit orchestrated, as I said, but on the other hand, I can still remember my WW newbie days.

I'm suspicious of Kitanna as well. Her suggestion in post #49 could be rather disastrous for innocents and she's been a bit careless toDay. Yeah, I suspected Ang for being careful and Kitanna for being careless. Oh well.

Also, there's still something that makes me wary of Firefoot's, but I need to go now, so I don't have time to explain.

I was a little suspicious of Jenny, but now I think that she's either the Cobbler or an innocent. If she's a penguin, then I must say that was a nice trick.


++ Kitanna

Good Night!

[Roa_Aoife]

Boromir analysis (because he's seemed off to me since his second post)

1st post

Nonsense (ie in character posting), says the biggest set back of the cobbler is the confusion that could be caused, agrees that getting rid of the cobbler is benefitial to the village

2nd post

Says Valier and Eonwe are acting too wierd to be penguins, thinks Firefoot is logical, doesn't see anything of significance in Roa's, phantom's or Diamond's posts.

3rd post

Says the only person he would expect to double bluff is phantom, or possibly ang,lists all the villagers minus himself:

Valier- too eccentric to be guilty
Diamond- also too eccentric, but he finds her quote about the seer and cobbler odd

Doesn't know about Naria

Mac- thinks mac is innocent, and behaving like a newbie
Lal- doesn't mind summaries, but doesn't really see a point
Firefoot- if innocent, good, if not, bad
Jenny- trying to squelch conversation
Roa- goes off about theories being a good thing
phantom- more likely to be a penguin than Mac, acting normally
spawn- seems fishy
Ang- nothing strange
Eonwe- having day 1 fun

Disagrees with phantom's plan

4th post

doesn't like to read the rules, remark about typos, answers Firefoots remark about analysis,responds to Jenny with apologies, thinks it's a good idea to lay down ideas for the gifted to follow

List of blieved innocents:

Spawn- for input about Ang
Jenny-
Eonwe
Valier
Macalaure

List of iffys

phantom- phantom plays the same when guilty or innocent
Firefoot- more observant than anything else
Naria- nothing really posted
Encaitare- nothing posted
Diamond- too confusing

List of suspected

Roa- doesn't like her supposed dis of theories
Lalaith- thinks lal is trying to nudge suspicion towards other people
Anguirel- spawn's comments
Kitanna- cobbler

5th post

Note on having cross posted

analysis to follow

[Firefoot]

Jenny, Diamond, and Macalure all feel rather innocent to me right now.

I have to go (or at least I will shortly), so a vote:

++Lalaith

She just isn't sitting right with me.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, a couple things caught my eye here- in his second post, he said there wasn't enough in my post for him to say anything, but later on he sites that same post for moving me to the top of his suspicion list. Then he stated on his point about Lalaith that he didn't like summaries- in the middle of a summary he was doing himself. You don't get much more contradictory than that. His sudden suspicion of Lal also seems to be a nervous response to her mild suspicion of him. Really, his main reason for suspecting her are comments that she madde about him.

Then there was this:

Originally Posted by boromir

Actually I said of everyone in this village I expected phantom the most likely to pull a double-bluff.

No, actually you said this:

Originally Posted by boromir

The only person I would expect to double-bluff is phantom...and actually I wouldn't put it past Anguirel either.

Really, misquoting yourself? Boromir is looking very bad to me right now, and I will most likely vote for him. There a few others that I will look at though, if I have the time. (I'm a little short on that at the moment.)

[Boromir88]

Are you suggesting that we simply ignore reasoning all together? I will not follow an illogical suggestion.~Roa

I don't recall suggesting we should ignore reasoning. I find theories facts and reasoning to go hand-and-hand and should be used. If I misinterpretted what you said then that's my own mistake, but I read this:

That said, we should be very careful concerning theories and reasoning, and look very closely for faulty logic or baseless assumptions, especially if someone keeps stating a theory as fact.

And to me it looked like you were comparing theories to "baseless assumptions." But, a theory isn't a theory without facts to support it. So, I was saying that theories aren't baseless because theories have facts to back it up (according to the true definition of a theory that is), and if it doesn't have facts then it's not a theory. Anyway point is, I thought there you were saying theories were baseless and we shouldn't use them. If that's not what you were saying then I stand corrected.

Two people say they find analyses boring/pointless, and then do fairly lengthy analyses themselves. Diamond, your last post, you go through everyone and basically say you think they are all innocent? What was the point?
Then there is Boromir. I mention him in my list of suspects, he retaliates by putting me at the head of his list, and seems to be quoting from two of my posts implying they are from the same post. He also seems to have read my initial post more carefully than he appears to have done...something I have seen werecreatures do before.

If you are here saying I am one of those two people you'll find you are greatly wrong. I never said, nor will I ever say that analysis is boring and pointless. I said for me I don't use "summaries" because I don't see why we hsould it's all right there. I'm perfectly fine with people using summaries, if that helps them sort out everything, but me personally I don't use them and I don't see a point in them. But I never said I was anti-analysis if that's what you are implying, that's actually all I really do.

If you call it retaliation then so be it, I can't change your opinion on that. But accusing me because I like to read through carefully? Sorry if I like to look at what people are posting. Perhaps you should read through more carefully instead of applying twisted logic to what I say.

He also seems to have read my initial post more carefully than he appears to have done...something I have seen werecreatures do before.

No I read through your first post carefully the first time. Initially, your first post I found no concern over, even though you did suspect me. It was your post after when I went back and re-thought about your first post. Because in your second post you were just kind of snipping around saying some names of people you're suspicious of but without saying anything else. Just that phantom and I seem odd to you.

and seems to be quoting from two of my posts implying they are from the same post.

Even if that's what I was doing I fail to see what significance it would have. Seems to me Lalaith you're grasping at straws trying to dig your way out of a hole.

I know phantom's plan is to hint innocents, but I'm saying hinting a guilty can benefit too, incase the innocent's hint happens to be right.~Kitanna

It looked to me like you were saying you agreed with phantom's plan then talked about naming guiltys, but phantom's plan said we shouldn't name who we thought was guilty. So really you weren't agreeing with phantom's plan, because his plan was against that.

[Lalaith]

Roa, I'm glad I'm not the only one. Of my original list of suspects, Boro is the one that still sticks out. (Although phantom has been a bit odd, all this dashing in and out, dropping gnomic hints about Maclaure.)
Boro, you are being really defensive and it adds to my uneasy feeling about you. I really don't like getting into tit-for-tat rows with people, particularly not on Day One, but this just seems to me the best thing to do:
++BOROMIR

[Boromir88]

Wow Roa this is greatly surprising me...

he said there wasn't enough in my post for him to say anything, but later on he sites that same post for moving me to the top of his suspicion list.

Umm, that list wasn't in anyway numbered. Perhaps you should go reread where I said I was Lalaith concerned me the most.

Really, misquoting yourself? Boromir is looking very bad to me right now, and I will most likely vote for him. There a few others that I will look at though, if I have the time. (I'm a little short on that at the moment.)

Talk about being picky here are we. I have one little word change and I'm contradicting myself? Kitanna said that I didn't think phantom would double-bluff, and I said no you should go back and reread where I said he is the one I feel most likely would double-bluff.

Then he stated on his point about Lalaith that he didn't like summaries- in the middle of a summary he was doing himself.

Umm I never have posted nor never will post a summary. There's a difference between going through every post on each person and reciting what they said (which is a summary) and going through the posts and staying one's feelings on everyone (which I would call analysis).

Roa, I find this act of taking things out of context and twisting really really strange did I hit a nerve?

[JennyHallu]

I did make it back!

Some interesting stuff has been going on, but not really enough to get me to change my vote. I'll keep it where it is. For now.

Roa, I'm with Boromir. Not real impressed with that analysis. Just knocked you up a peg.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by boromir

And to me it looked like you were comparing theories to "baseless assumptions."

Well, you were mistaken. I said that we should be wary of baseless arguments. It's too easy to misdirect people with an argumetn that has no fact behind it. Also, while theories are supported by facts, they are not, in themselves, fact, and someone who seems eager to have us adhere to one theory as fact is directly misleading us. You said this:

Originally Posted by boromir

don't throw around theories or baseless arguments," and what do I propose you want us to do to catch a penguin miss Guardian?

I didn't say "don't throw around" anything. I said becareful of those who do. Theories are all well and good- baseless arguments aren't. It greatly concerns me that you would hold those up.

If you are here saying I am one of those two people you'll find you are greatly wrong. I never said, nor will I ever say that analysis is boring and pointless. I said for me I don't use "summaries" because I don't see why we hsould it's all right there. I'm perfectly fine with people using summaries, if that helps them sort out everything, but me personally I don't use them and I don't see a point in them.

Saying that you don't see a point in something and saying that something is pointless is the same thing. Way to contradict yourself again.

Even if that's what I was doing I fail to see what significance it would have.

It means that you're trying to look like you're giving a well thought out analysis, when you are- in short, misleading the village. I also note that you didn't outright deny it.

[Anguirel]

Thank Eru I managed to get here on time. I come back to you now...at the turning of the tide...maybe...

Things are starting to erupt into a sordid Boromir vs Roa and Lalaith struggle. I don't believe any of these three to be deserving of lynching, not yet at any rate.

But Roa's case-as Lalaith overlooked in her relief in finding an ally, but as Boromir pointed out-is fairly flimsy, based on a contradiction that does not exist. This seems to be a genuine misunderstanding and so I am inclined to spare the rod here.

In any case, I really don't want Lalaith to be the victim of this (or Boro). I am tempted to turn the Kitanna campaign into a feasible possibility; she seems more suspicious to me than either of them, with quite a few generalisations and cunning fudging verbiage.

Diamond-because she brought up the spirit of ennui-oh I'm so bored-which has had vast psychological repurcussions among the more easily led players-is also pretty voteworthy in my eyes, but at this stage she's not as realistic a candidate.

--EONWE, ++KITANNA

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Boromir

Roa, I find this act of taking things out of context and twisting really really strange did I hit a nerve?

I haven't twisted anything. I posted the summary before the analysis so people could see for themselves what you did, and the order in which you did them. Then I pulled out the things that bothered me and elaborated on them.

Originally Posted by boromir

Umm, that list wasn't in anyway numbered. Perhaps you should go reread where I said I was Lalaith concerned me the most.

Again, you fail to answer the actual point- it wasn't about me being your top suspect, it was that you used a post to put in your "likely to vote for" list, that you previously stated as not being enough to say anything about.

[Anguirel]

Roa, what about this...

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Talk about being picky here are we. I have one little word change and I'm contradicting myself? Kitanna said that I didn't think phantom would double-bluff, and I said no you should go back and reread where I said he is the one I feel most likely would double-bluff.

You conveniently didn't address it. Face it, you've got something wrong. There was no essential contradiction. Now please, prune your pride and have a glance elsewhere-you're really good value when you're not barking up the proverbial errant tree.