Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[the phantom]

How is it that I am making myself look guilty by trying to make people see that killing off people that we know are innocent will not help us in the long run?

You are obviously missing the entire point of the plan. The entire point of the plan is to help the village "in the long run". My plan accepts that innocents will die early and attempts to at least preserve our gifted villagers. That is most definitely helpful in the long run.

Isn't it better to take a chance and maybe kill a werewolf, instead of give up all hope at this stage of the proceedings and immediately start killing off the good guys?

NO!!!

Sheesh. I've already demonstrated the statistical disadvantage of attempting to randomly select a wolf. I think you need to go back and read my first few posts again.

The idea is that we don't want innocent people to die!

BUT IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN ANYWAY AT THE BEGINNING!!! The most we can do is pick which innocent dies.

What is so difficult to understand about this???

You either have poor math and reasoning skills, or you are a foolish wolf.

Where is the best place to hide? Out in the open.

True, and who has been the most openly guilty so far? You!

What in the world has happened when logic means killing innocent people while werewolves run free?

Your arguments have already demonstrated your weak grip on things that involve logic, so I don't think you should be trying to comment on logic (or lack thereof) in any situation.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I would like to point out that the werewolves are probably laughing heartily at this bicker.

[littlemanpoet]

Off her rocker? Well, not exactly.
You're both loudmouths, matter of factly.
Maybe you're both werewolves and creating this fuss
to distract the rest of us
to throw us off the (hint hint) scent.
Or maybe you're both innocent.
Who's to say?
Who knows how you'll play?
One thing's sure,
it's that Eomer
made a word slip
which may be a mere blip
or it may be evidence
of his malfeasance (sp?).

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I now congratulate lmp on joining Kath in the 'silly serious' club.

Actually, he's ahead of Kath in the suspicion list. Why would he keep referring to that obviously honest mistake? He's not stupid, so....

[the phantom]

I am still unclear as to what advantage we gain from having the seer around.

You've got to be kidding.

I'm not even going to answer that, Hookbill. Somebody else do it.

Something else that's occured to me with this plan is that once someone volunteers, they've effectively given the biggest "Look - I'm an innocent" sign that they could possibly put forward. I don't know about the rest of the village, but I would be very hesitant to lynch a volunteer. And that could provide cover for the wolves if they see it as a way to declare innocence and also see a low probability of the rest of the town taking up the offer.

Excellent observations.

That is why, if people like the plan, we must follow through on it. If the wolves think "They won't really do it once we step forward" then they will- and people will think it makes them innocent.

Furthermore, if we follow through on lynching volunteers, an innocent does volunteer every day, and then is lynched every day, it just depletes the population of villagers and keeps us from lynching a real wolf.

We would only do it the first two days.

Féa's saying that gifted villagers are expendable doesn't quite sit well with me.

No kidding.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Okay, I'll admit that saying the Seer is expendable is a little hasty of me. Wait... no I won't.

Right now, we have a Seer. He or she knows somebody's identity. Chances are high that he or she knows the identity of somebody that, quite frankly, we don't care about.

So we'll kill an innocent today. The wolves will kill an innocent tonight. There's a chance, however small, that the wolves are going to kill our Seer tonight any how, unless of course he or she comes out and says "Hey everybody, I'm the Seer. Ranger, you need to protect me tonight." In that case, the wolves have the chance of slaughtering the Ranger instead, and then the Seer is up for grabs the next night.

Or the wolves swipe the hunter, and two people die. Or, of course, the wolves swipe one of tp's expendable innocents, and apparently nobody cares, right?

My point is, that, probability for day one aside, your numbers aren't going to help us win the game, because there is the human error quotient. The Seer could be killed tonight, and then you wasted a life for nothing.

Any how, since nobody is going to listen to me about my opinion on tp's colossally stupid kill-plan, here's a brain-teaser.

Neither Anguirel nor Lalaith have posted yet, and yet Eomer's accused them both. Twice. Why, Eomer?

[littlemanpoet]

Obviously honest, you say.
Okay,
that may be.
We'll see.

Yes phantom's plan has more merit
if we limit it
to two days
but hey
don't look at me
to offer to all of thee
myself to volunteer.
It's clear
to me of course that I'm no wolf
but only in the pudding is there proof.
All right, it's supper time
I'm making sure to get mine.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I would like to point out that the werewolves are probably laughing heartily at this bicker.

Unless one of the bickering duo is a werewolf. *glares at the phantom*

Okay... you've got to listen to me. I would rather try to catch a werewolf and screw up, than freely give up the chance to even try.

I don't care if an "innocent" steps forward to die. I will not be voting for whoever that person is. I'll take my chances with luck and try to kill somebody that actually is supposed to die.

[the phantom]

Chances are high that he or she knows the identity of somebody that, quite frankly, we don't care about.

Wrong.

If the seer is able to identify someone as being innocent, it is extremely valuable if you know how to use the information.

If the number of proven innocents ever equals the number of wolves then the villagers automatically win if they behave correctly.

I don't expect you to see how that works. It's a bit complicated and tough to figure out at first, but it's true.

There's a chance, however small, that the wolves are going to kill our Seer tonight any how, unless of course he or she comes out and says "Hey everybody, I'm the Seer. Ranger, you need to protect me tonight." In that case, the wolves have the chance of slaughtering the Ranger instead, and then the Seer is up for grabs the next night.... The Seer could be killed tonight, and then you wasted a life for nothing.

The chance of the seer or Ranger getting killed during the night will not be affected by who we kill today, so no, the life will not have been wasted.

If they kill the seer then they kill the seer. There's nothing we can do about that.

I'll take my chances with luck

Luck over a more statistically sound plan?

Typical seventeen year old.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Why have I accused Anguirel and Lalaith?

Hmm.....

As this appears so blindingly obvious to me, I'm not going to answer you directly, at least not for a while. I am going to wait until every other person speaks (or at least most other people).

For fear of wasting my time.

You wouldn't grasp at such feeble straws for no reason, now would you Miss Fea? This is precisely the fallacious reasoning I talked of earlier. From my perspective, you are probably innocent: don't ruin that by taking the bait meant for werewolves.

[the phantom]

Why have I accused Anguirel and Lalaith?

Hmm.....

As this appears so blindingly obvious to me, I'm not going to answer you directly, at least not for a while. I am going to wait until every other person speaks (or at least most other people).

I know what you are doing.

Good call.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I think it would have been, had a certain someone not called me on it.

But anyway........that Nilpaurion Felagund always struck me as a troublemaker. Let him speak!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

If the number of proven innocents ever equals the number of wolves then the villagers automatically win if they behave correctly.

I don't expect you to see how that works. It's a bit complicated and tough to figure out at first, but it's true.

Just because I don't like your plan doesn't mean that I don't understand it, or that I don't think it has a number of merits. So don't bother with the condescending and infuriating "I don't expect you to understand" and the "typical seventeen year old" stuff.

Clarify this part of it for me: the Seer (or whoever else it is in your head) knows that these three are innocent. How does he or she convey this information to the rest of the innocents without the wolves finding out also?

The chance of the seer or Ranger getting killed during the night will not be affected by who we kill today

Sure it will, math-boy. If we take one innocent out of the pool, then there are less people for the wolves to kill, thereby increasing their chance of randomly selecting someone we want to keep. If you need smaller numbers, here are some.

There are three fish in the pond, a blue fish, a red fish, and an orange fish. The fisherman is guaranteed to catch one. He has a 1:3 chance of catching the blue fish. If we take out the orange fish and leave it on the shore to die or something equally gross, then there are only two fish left. It means that the fisherman now has a 1:2 chance of getting the blue fish. Capiche?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

You wouldn't grasp at such feeble straws for no reason, now would you Miss Fea?

I never do anything without reason. And since it was "bait", and a set intentionally, how can you call it grasping at a straw? I noticed something odd, and called you on it. What's wrong with that? M'boy, m'boy... if you want to set a trap, you need to be more subtle. And at least come up with a lie when you get called on it, instead of saying "I just changed my mind about your innocence because you pointed out my mistake." It's the same thing you did to LMP. Because he found a [Freudian?] slip and is teasing you about it, he's guilty. Way to play.

[the phantom]

How does he or she convey this information to the rest of the innocents without the wolves finding out also?

The seer would have to step forward and expose his/her identity. But there is a point that, if reached, it won't really matter if the wolves know who the seer is.

So don't bother with the condescending and infuriating...

What about my "arrogant healer" role don't you understand?

And now let's look at your math skills...

Sure it will, math-boy. If we take one innocent out of the pool, then there are less people for the wolves to kill, thereby increasing their chance of randomly selecting someone we want to keep. If you need smaller numbers, here are some.

There are three fish in the pond, a blue fish, a red fish, and an orange fish. The fisherman is guaranteed to catch one. He has a 1:3 chance of catching the blue fish. If we take out the orange fish and leave it on the shore to die or something equally gross, then there are only two fish left. It means that the fisherman now has a 1:2 chance of getting the blue fish. Capiche?

I can see how this might seem logical to you if you don't think too hard, but there is a huge mistake in your little fish-catching analogy.

You are assuming that it is possible to fish without one of the fish being taken out. That is not the case today. You said-

If we take one innocent out of the pool, then there are less people for the wolves to kill

But what you forgot is that someone will be taken out of the pool NO MATTER WHAT, whether my plan is instituted or not! So your little fish thing doesn't apply at all.

Don't try to beat me at math.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Hold your horses, only fools rush in, when in Rome and a couple of other useful proverbs! You are causing me a headache. I have my own theories, too, but I won't say more yet nor give any reasons because that would lead me to "an incredibly boring death". A part of me agrees with phantom's plan but it'll be useless if we lose our seer within next couple of days or nights.

We have a 17.6% chance of picking a wolf.

Well, the Seer has 18.75% chance to pick a culprit in case s/he didn't dream of a wolf last night - otherwise the odds are a tad better... But the problem is that we wouldn't probably believe him/her anyway and we'd lynch him/her as a wolf.

There are just too many "what ifs". Sigh. I'm off to bed now. Please, more reasoning and less fighting. And let's wait for those who have remained silent.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

No. See, we already know that a fish is coming out. That's a freaking given. If we take out our own fish, we definately help the wolves. If we take an educated guess, we probably help the wolves. There's quite the difference there, being that if we guess right, we aren't helping them. There's that margin of hope that we can't over-look.

Don't try to beat you at math? Fine. If you agree to stop trying to beat me. Period.

And did you realize that we're stealing the show? How's about a temporary truce (you're still dumb ) so that we can force some of the others to take action?

[the phantom]

There's that margin of hope that we can't over-look.

But with that margin of hope comes an even larger chance of giving the wolves a huge boost, since as I said before, there is a greater chance of lynching a gifted villager than there is of lynching a wolf.

you're still dumb

*sigh*

You realize that only someone dumb would call the phantom dumb?

How's about a temporary truce so that we can force some of the others to take action?

As long as you promise to behave yourself.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

It was bait. It was bait for the werewolves. Werewolves who are intentionally trying to sway the votes and by that means lynch an innocent. Why should you be desparate to take the opportunity to set me up? It was designed so that a werewolf may set me up, not an innocent. Said werewolf would be clutching at straws. Any innocent would have no reason to go anywhere near the straws. By the way, (couldn't help but notice) you did point out my accusations while the phantom was grilling you, despite the fact that I had accused Ang about 30 posts ago. Did you just 'notice' it there and then, yes?

At least come up with a lie when called on it? I don't see the point: everyone can see the game now anyway. I'll lie when it suits me, not when every werewolf has realised what I was plotting. As for subtlety, it seemed subtle enough to fox you. You should have just played along and then maybe, just maybe, we would have a trap for the wolves. Why should you be opposed to this trap? I mean, you are already so opposed to the phantom's. Can you offer any worthwhile suggestions in catching a wolf? Or do you just want to hang those who are trying?

Apparently I said something along the lines of "I just changed my mind about your innocence because you pointed out my mistake".

Ok, ok, this is amusing. Please refer to the mistake of mine that you pointed out. I don't recall it. lmp's point (and teasing) was noted and laughed at. It is his repetition of the point that I am wary of. Why should I be called on the slip over and over? If you see that as a werewolf's slip then suit yourself. Just remember to look at the context of the post; you will see (hopefully) that it was an honest mistake.

Oh, and I didn't say that lmp was guilty. I merely pointed out what I believe to be suspicious behaviour.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Well, what a tangle. I'm not sure what to make of some of this...
But I will place myself firmly against the idea that one of us innocent villagers volunteers to be lynched. As said before, if it's such a great idea, why doesn't Phantom volunteer.
Also, I still don't understand how a guaranteed innocent death is any better for us than risking lynching an innocent. I personally would rather lynch one of my fellow innocent villagers accidentally, without having them volunteer. If we lynch by vote, we at least have some chance of actually picking a wolf. If we lynch a volunteer, we're guaranteed to lose an innocent, therefore lessening the villager-to-wolf ratio. I bet they'd laugh in glee.
I vote for at least trying to lynch a suspicious character rather than lynching a known innocent.
There may be a "statistical disadvantage" as Phantom calls it, but to my mind, a chance is still a chance.

EDIT: In fact, we're guaranteed to lose two innocents before we get to vote again, if we take Phantom's method: one would die and one would be killed at Night. On one hand, we definitely won't lose one of our important villagers, such as a seer or a guardian during the day, but at Night, anything can happen. I'd say we have about the same chance of lynching someone important as the wolves do of killing one tonight. It would be a shame to lose a seer or guardian or hunter this early in the game, but I prefer to take the route that provides us with a possibility of lynching a wolf instead of definitely losing an innocent villager. If we vote, we at least have a chance of success.

[the phantom]

As said before, if it's such a great idea, why doesn't Phantom volunteer.

You're right. That was "said before", and it was also answered before, so it was rather pointless for you to repeat, unless you are merely trying to plant a bug in people's ears that I should be the one to die. But why would you want to do that? Hmm...

If we lynch a volunteer, we're guaranteed to lose an innocent, therefore lessening the villager-to-wolf ratio. I bet they'd laugh in glee.

We're going to be lessening the villager-to-wolf ratio even if we don't follow my plan (odds are).

There may be a "statistical disadvantage" as Phantom calls it, but to my mind, a chance is still a chance.

So you are willing to do something despite a statistical disadvantage? That doesn't sound too smart.

On one hand, we definitely won't lose one of our important villagers, such as a seer or a guardian during the day

Yes, that is the plan's strong point.

but at Night, anything can happen

That is always the case, plan or no plan, so that doesn't really matter.

Also, if the seer is killed during the night, all we will have to do is look back at his/her posts to see what hints were given and we will at least have a bit of guidance.

[the phantom]

I was going to hold my tongue on this for a bit because of the temporary truce Fea and I have, but I feel the need to say it after Azalia's comments.

WHY IN THE WORLD would you ask someone why they aren't volunteering? It's a stupid thing to do, because obviously the best reason not to volunteer would be if you are a gifted villager, which is something you certainly do not want to admit to being. There is not an answer to that question that could possibly have a positive effect on the village, but it could certainly have a negative one.

If I would have answered "Well, um, because I just really think there are better choices than me", then the obvious implication would be that I was a gifted villager and the werewolves would kill me the following night.

Fortunately when I wrote up my requirements for volunteering I included the notion that the best volunteers would be inactive ones. Sure, it is a good thought in and of itself, but the primary reason I included it was to provide a reasonable answer to the question "Why aren't you volunteering?" in case the question was asked (directed at me or anyone else).

You see, I figured that question would be asked by someone before it was ever asked, and I also thought that asking the question might be a sign of a werewolf.

To my mind, Fea and Azalia asking why I haven't volunteered is quite suspicious. It's almost as if they are hoping to trick me into outing myself as a gifted villager.

Why else would you ask?

An innocent would know to hold his/her tongue so as not to risk exposing a gifted villager.

[Lalaith]

Good evening fellow villagers. I'm sorry not to have joined in the discussion before, but even on such a terrible and tragic day as this, my first duty was to my babes who were fretful and needed tending. Now they are all sleeping soundly and I can share my thoughts with you all.
I agree that on this first day, we will almost certainly be lynching at random. But to knowingly kill an innocent - surely not. Is it not our humanity that seperates us from the werewolves? If we sink to their level in order to defeat them, have they not won, anyway?
I note my name has cropped up as being under suspicion. I accept that with the random element of today's vote, any one us could end up dead at the hands of the rest and that one may be myself: there is little that any of us can say to each other at this stage to convince of our innocence.
I wondered what lay behind the hints of the phantom? I asked him to beware, because I felt he was leading us to infer that he was a 'gifted' villager, and thus picked up by the werewolves as their next victim. But I see that while I was composing my thoughts he has pre-empted this observation.

[Lalaith]

We know this:
There are three working together towards a common purpose. They know who they are and who the enemy is.
There are two also working together towards a common purpose. They know who they are, but they don't know who the enemy is.
There is one person on his own, who now knows if one other person is a friend or an enemy.
There are the rest - eleven - blundering around in the dark, knowing our own innocence but no-one else's.

Can anyone trace any threads of common purpose from the posts so far?

[Saurreg]

Alas for poor shortie! I will surely miss him and his irrelevant information on the woodland diet of werewolves when human flesh is unavailable and our ongoing debate on the feasibility of acquiring werewolf pelts.

For shame! For shame!

[littlemanpoet]

I've washed my hands after supper.

Evidence. Evidence. Evidence. Yes, Eomer, it was slim evidence at best, but evidence is about all we really will have to go on, besides luck or a plan (if enough people are willing to follow it). You certainly do seem to come across as one of the innocents, but wouldn't that be what we should expect out of a smart werewolf? Not saying that you are, but not saying that you aren't.

Getting back to the phantom's plan. With the two day limit it makes a lot of sense to me, but there's just one little problem. Well, no, a big problem. Nobody's volunteering. I'm certainly not going to! I want to stay alive as long as I can! Who wouldn't? So like I said, it looks like a good plan except for that one glaring flaw.

[Oddwen]

A sad day indeed -
That our friend had to bleed
In defiance of his creed
So bid him godspeed
As we, out of need
Search out beasts hairy and flea'd
Kick 'em in the knee!
This story ain't twee -
So, I beseech thee,
Pray that I won't think up more rhymes.


Indeed, verily forsooth and etc., conundrum after conundrum present themselves like lemmings.

As to THE phantom's plan - I think it has merit. On one hand killing an innocent will increase the odds in the Villager's favor, yet on the other we're not killing werewolves and they're matching our loss with their own kill.

Would this plan work if it were not done in the first two days? Could we go back to it in the later stages with the same effect?

[Celuien]

Well, if The Phantom's plan is only applied for a couple of days, it could work. But there's still the no volunteers problem that's been pointed out frequently. I'm not planning to volunteer - lynching is an unpleasant business, particularly for the one being lynched. Plus, I'm not totally comfortable with lynching a known innocent for many of the reasons given above (reducing debate/chances to analyze voting patterns and providing unintentional cover for wolves). Although this does seem less relevant early in the process where most of us are pointing blindly anyway. Later on I'm afraid it could spell disaster.

Fea doesn't seem as suspicious as I was starting to think earlier. Just, umm, noisy. Not particularly werewolfish. But I don't know - it's too late for my muddled brain to work properly. More in the morning...

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by the phantom

To my mind, Fea and Azaelia asking why I haven't volunteered is quite suspicious. It's almost as if they are hoping to trick me into outing myself as a gifted villager.

Why else would you ask?

An innocent would know to hold his/her tongue so as not to risk exposing a gifted villager.

I was not asking you to volunteer seriously...I just had noticed that you were arguing particularly strongly without seeming ready to support your plan fully yourself. I'm not trying to frame you up. I'm not trying to get you lynched. It's just a fact that no one wants to die.

I am not working with Fea or trying to trick you into admitting that you are a gifted villager, Phantom...I don't even think that you are, just at this stage. It's hard to know anything about anyone.

As to another thing you said about me going with a statistical disadvantage not being logical... As I've said before, I think that completely having no chance of lynching a werewolf while at the same time having the certainty of killing an innocent villager is just not that great a situation. Either way we choose, we're at a disadvantage.

Also, I just don't think it particularly realistic that any villager, innocent or otherwise, is going to volunteer to die on the first Day. I certainly haven't seen anyone raising their hands.

And you seem to be suspicious of me. If I was a wolf, I'd be keeping my head down and just watching with glee as you lynch an innocent villager without any help from me. Obviously, that's not what I'm doing.

I simply see a small chance of catching a werewolf as being better than no chance at all, in spite of the risks. That's just my opinion. Perhaps we'll have to agree to disagree, since we're basically saying the same arguments over and over.

[Saurreg]

Tis a sad day here in Storyland. But well water must be drawn, chickens fed, cows milked and foxes skinned; life must go on.

Right, on with the show.

I am surprised that our resident seadog Eomer has already set his sights on not one but two fellow villagers without any rational explanation at all and when LMP pointed this out, he quickly threw in FN as another suspect. Was he drunk when he made those statements? Or does he know something that we do not? I do not know but I shall be keeping my eyes wide open.

The Phantom must be commended for trying to come out with a sensible plan to safeguard the wider interests of the village. Note that I said "trying" 'cuz in this ole trapper's eyes, that hare-brained scheme hasn't got any darned legs to stand on - much like those funny-looking raccoons I processed last week. Selfless morality is lacking in these parts and if we go back the good ole tradition of death by mob; at least we stand a chance (no matter how slender) of hanging a darn man-wolf.

Therefore I submit that we stick to the lynching. Dead wolf on the scaffold and a major contribution to the study of their darned kind (especially whether or not they remain furry after death). What's there not to like? But nevertheless The Phantom deserves alittle praise for his idea. I'd give him a complimentary gold star if I had one but I don't. Then again, I've never had much gold on me.

[the phantom]

Nobody's volunteering.

But there's still the no volunteers

Selfless morality is lacking in these parts

You are all correct, of course. I imagine no one will be willing to step forward, but there's always a chance.

I am not working with Fea or trying to trick you into admitting that you are a gifted villager, Phantom...I don't even think that you are

Don't try and take the wolves' eyes off of me, or anyone else for that matter. Though I'd like to live till tomorrow, if the wolves kill me tonight that would mean our seer would have the opportunity to dream another dream, so don't openly suspect that I am not gifted. If you really think I am a plain old villager, you should want the wolves to suspect that I am gifted so they will kill me and thus leave the seer, ranger, and such alive.

Now, I know it was just a passing statement, Azalia, so I'm not saying you made some sort of case for me not being gifted- this is mainly just a warning to everyone to help in the future.

I'd give him a complimentary gold star if I had one but I don't.

Well, we healers have plenty of gold, so how about I give you a gold star and you can give it back to me?

By the way, I have some other thoughts besides my plan but it would be best for me to hold them for now.

[the phantom]

I'm feeling quite tired after all this talking. I'm going to go take a nap.

I'll see you all a bit later.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

*spit* I'm innocent. I'll volunteer.

Volunteer for what, may I ask?

I dunno. "Volunteerin'" sounds mighty fun. *cough*

By de whey, Eomer, thanks for keeping my role alive, pardner. Someone suspicious ain't one if he ain't suspicious, if y'all know wat I mean. *spit*

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Why would Eomer point to one person?

Why two?

Or why any at all?

Why would the phantom suggest such daring, excellent, yet glaringly flawed plan? And why would Fea and Azaelia violently oppose it if nobody would be volunteering anyway?

And Saurreg, who is this FN??

Why ask this questions? Are you trying to point something out, but are too scared to be seen pointing?

Hush, alter-ego. You're not supposed to be here. I'm the only one who joined, remember? I don't see your name on tgwbs's list, don't I?

[Evisse the Blue]

Simple. Neat. And wrong.


Looking back, and if I had brains enough to count correctly, I see that we have 5 against the plan, and 5 basically agreeing with the plan. This tells us...absolutely nothing... Except that everyone is pretty much as confused as I am. Even those that didn't agree see this one major flaw that nobody will volunteer. Oops, wait, someone did volunteer. That means we found our scapegoat, did we? Who better to lynch than the suspicious guy?

Would this plan work if it were not done in the first two days? Could we go back to it in the later stages with the same effect?

What would be the point of that? I understood the only benefit of this plan is that it can be used in the beginning stages when we have not much to be suspicious of. Although, some suspicions are clearly forming, even at this stage *looks at the web of accusations, insults, slips. etc*

Well, I'm off to make the pizza, y'all must be hungry after all this fighting. Except those of you who feasted last night, that is.

[Lalaith]

This is hard. I must be away from the village now, and won't be back until the end of the vote.
I had hoped that by now some votes would have been cast. To be the first to name a lynching victim is a difficult thing, both morally and strategically.

Like Evisse, I am confused by many things. Was Feanor's and phantom's fight indeed a smokescreen, as lmp suggests? On the other hand, why were Eomer and phantom so keen to label our artist crazy? She made mostly good sense to me. And what of the fence-sitters, who backed phantom's plan and whose only objections were pragmatic (no-one volunteering) rather than moral?
Phantom's strategy is based on a risk-adverse principle - killing an innocent as a safeguard because the chances of lynching a gifted villager being too high. Yet his own behaviour has been the opposite of risk-adverse. He has been running the risk - if of course he is himself a non-werewolf - of being identified, rightly or wrongly, by the werewolves as a gifted villager. Of course, our healer is a clever and complicated person, and so contradictory behaviour from him is less suspicious than from someone else. But still....
I will have another cup of coffee before I leave, and mull over what scarce evidence we have so far, and try to pluck up the courage to cast my vote.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

For every complex problem, there is a solution that is
Simple. Neat. And wrong.

Only too true.

Phantom, if lynching the gifted villager is dangerous, is not lynching a werewolf more dangerous? The longer we leave them to roam, the less chance of winning we have. If we do get rid of the gifted one, then yeah, its a set back, but we'll just have to work a little harder, look deeper and use the large thing between our ears.

[Lalaith]

Curses. With so many strong opinion formers in this village, I never thought it would fall to me to be the first to stick my head above the parapet. But circumstances sadly dictate it. The lady of the manor was last night blessed with issue and I must away to collect my new charge, and will not return until after the lynching. I know I could simply not vote at all. But we village women fought a bitter battle for the vote, and it would be wrong not to use this hard-won democratic right. Well, here goes.

There is little chance of lynching a guilty person today and this weighs heavily on my conscience.
To help me in my choice I have split the village into three groups.
There are those who have been completely silent: Anguirel, Esgallhugwen.
There are those who have been most outspoken: phantom, lmp, Feanor, Eomer.
There are those who come somewhere inbetween: Azaelia, Celuien, dancing spawn, Evisse, Firefoot , Hookbill, Kath, Nilp Felagund, Oddwen, Saurreg and myself.
Now, I don't think any of this is necessarily significant. Personal circumstances and personality differences come into play here, I know, as much as innocence or guilt. But I tend to agree with phantom's point that a noisy person can be useful to have around for a while, whether they are wolf or human. The silent group should have a chance to speak, so I will pick a name, more or less at random, from the middle group. As I didn't like phantom's volunteer victim plan, I will pick someone who was more inclined to support it: +++KATH.
I am sorry, and I hold my nominee no particular grudge, but someone had to be named.

[Celuien]

The time for a vote is drawing near, and I'm still so lost.

After consideration, my final vote on the phantom's plan will have to be a no. I think it was a rational enough plan, but I don't see enough of a risk/benefit trade-off to justify going after a known innocent (not to repeat myself too much), even with the volunteer that we now have.

And now a quick disclaimer: the following opinions and theories are related solely to events on day one. Future deviations from these theories should be taken in the context of the day on which they occur and not necessarily considered flip-floppin or werewolf-like behavior.

At this point, the phantom, Fea and Eomer are at the bottom of my suspect list. The plan put forward by the phantom does seem to have been put forward with the interest of the village at heart, even if I can't agree with it. Fea's actions in the argument look to be more like debate than trying to set anyone up for lynching.

Eomer has been mentioned as a suspect based on his slip of the tongue earlier, but I don't think it makes him a wolf. If it's a genuine mistake, it's one that a smart wolf wouldn't be likely to make since they have to be guarded. It's too easy for us to pick up on something small as an excuse for lynching on the first day. If it's intentional, it's also un-wolf-like because it's too obvious a double-blind for a wolf, again leading to lynching. But I can think of a good reason for an innocent to put a baited slip like that out for discussion.

I'm not sure what to think of lmp, but I like the poetry. And I think it's a good idea to keep louder participants around for a while.

This, of course, leaves me with a wide field from which to pick my vote. I have some other theories as well, but this isn't a good time to put them forward. I need more data, and I'm afraid of causing confusion or aiding the wolves if I put my idea out too soon, whether I'm right or wrong. But RL is calling at the moment so further discussion and my vote will have to wait for a bit.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Well, a happy occurence it is to wake up alive. My suspicion of the phantom is lessening, although I do not know why. His logic battles ceaselessly with my own. I'll explain more in about an hour.