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#41 | |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
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It's been a while since I played, but are we still doing the "Day One is useless at the time!" "No it's not!" debate that used to define the beginning of games? ![]() Or are the usual tricks to avoid it so clichéd that they become suspicious, twice over? Like Lommy's (of course) and Boro's decidely leonine behaviour thus far? Hmmm? String them up!
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Los Ingobernables de Harlond |
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#42 |
Silver in My Silent Heart
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We could use this time to forge an alliance with the Lovers.
Early in the game it makes sense not to pressure the Lovers. It also makes sense for the Lovers to try and hunt down Lannisters, since Lannisters are the greatest danger to the Lovers at this moment. If the advantage shifts to the Lannisters in a couple of Days, we might want to reconsider (meaning making personal notes on Lover suspicion). I'll count the Bear as a kind of friendly neighborhood Assassin to begin with. |
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#43 |
Silver in My Silent Heart
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Mac, thank you for your very educational demonstration. Great minds...
Well, I'll go see if this inn has more paper hidden somewhere. Unless one of you would like to interpret my sign language. |
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#44 | ||
shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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Sure, the Hunter may become useful later in the game, but (s)he might just as well become harmful taking down another innocent at death which may come at any time (in true Got style). WW is a game of numbers and the way I see things, the numbers favour a quick reveal. Quote:
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"You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan Last edited by skip spence; 06-25-2014 at 05:25 AM. Reason: clarification |
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#45 | |||
Fluttering Enchantment
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The Lovers won't be making any specific allegiances until later in the game when it's clear which side is doing better. If we manage to get a wolf early on then they'll probably side more with us, but if we go days without being successful they probably won't. If we want them on our side we have to do well, basically. For your second part: interesting that you said you were panicked about the double night kills but you want to focus on the wolves. I think killing one of either the bear or maiden is a better goal cause that's killing one person to decrease the night kills, rather than killing 3. Though, I don't know exactly how we could go about targeting the bear/maiden specifically, my hope is one gets taken out at night so we don't get a cobbler, but even if we lynch one getting a cobbler isn't the end of the world. Plus, once one of them is dead it could be easy to figure out who their lover was based on their posts (if we do get a cobbler). So I'm off to work. Depending on how busy I am today I should be able to pop on a few times. edt: ah, page 2! x'ed since Agan
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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#46 | |
Animated Skeleton
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 26
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Edit: Well since reading page 2 and the posts agreeing with the strategy, maybe you are innocent after all. I'll still be keeping my eye out though. I have yet to fully trust any of you. Wilwarin's posts almost seem too helpful to be genuine after all. Last edited by WythDryden; 06-25-2014 at 06:21 AM. |
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#47 | ||||
Child of the West
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn
Posts: 2,132
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My biggest fear with the lovers is the extra kill at night. Though, they could take down a lion with this kill, which would be wonderful. And while a cobbler can be dangerous later in the game I'm not overly concerned if we lynch a lover and get one. Ideally the lions will target one and the remaining lover will be on the village's side. I'd really like to be rid of a second kill at night, but I'm not about to actively hunt the lovers. But I'm also not going to sweat it too much if we lynch one instead of a lion.
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"Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain |
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#48 | |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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![]() And as reply to Volo and Wilwa: Let's assume a worst case scenario. That is we lynch only innocents, the wolves and the bear kill only innocents, the seer doesn't dream of wolves, the ranger doesn't make saves and the hunter doesn't kill a wolf. We are now 16 innocents (ordos + gifteds), 2 lovers and 3 wolves. Assuming what I said above, there will be 13 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day2, 10 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day3, 7 + 2 + 3 on Day4 and 4 + 2 + 3 on Day5. Okay, I screwed up my maths a bit earlier because I somehow counted that we would be 5 + 2 +3 on Day4. In that case, the wolves and the lovers might just all have revealed and teamed up after one innocent has voted. (Given that both teams would have reason to assume the innocent is innocent.) Now I see we're only screwed on Day5 if everything goes wrong. Now I see the odds aren't quite that bad (and anyway, in most games the village starts to be screwed if they don't kill any wolves before Day4) so maybe I shouldn't try to scare you guys. The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind. I guess my inner pessimist just keeps thinking this game can't be as easy as it looks. ![]() I mean, seriously: 16 (including a regular seer and ranger and a hunter albeit a weaker one) against 3, + 2 that are yet to pick sides but for whom it makes way much more sense to side with the village and that can kill wolves too. It can't be that easy, can it? And see, Volo, someone proved Lommy's ominous maths wrong. ![]() I should probably shut up though. I seem to have created a habit of making a fool of myself on Day1. *would insert a self ironic smiley if I hadn't run out of the quota* I'll be back later! edit: xed with Wyth and Kit!
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#49 |
Psyche of Prince Immortal
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Granted that the double night kills are scary, but keep in mind that Lions and the Bear will ideally choose their marks based on the days results. The Bear's greatest threat would be Lions, and would be smart to hunt them out first. On the flip side, the Lions are right to be afraid of the Bear at night and would see that threat gone immediately, anyway possible.
Whatever happens happens, but i feel a hunt for the bear first would be a waste of effort on our part. Balance the playing field and hunt us some lions.
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Love doesn't blow up and get killed.
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#50 | |
Fluttering Enchantment
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And that's an interesting point Gil, the Lions and Bear are just as afraid of each other as we are of them, and at this point they are just as much a threat to each other. (I'm not going to get any work done today, haha, this is such a distraction!)
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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#51 | ||||||
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,035
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#52 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Where is Eomer of the House Stark? I'm here to let you know declare your enemies and Bolton stands behind you. Be advised not to listen to any Tully...they're not of the North and can't help us in matters of war and death.
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#53 | |||||||||
Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,353
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However, and this is something I have not considered when I started writing this post, the non-kill could just be a Ranger save from their perspective. They won't know either if said person is a Hunter or an unknown someone. Heck, the Ranger could be protecting a Lion from a Bear! I need to digest this thought, I can't think of all the consequences of this right away. Quote:
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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#54 | |
Fluttering Enchantment
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That is true, but the Bear is also just another way for the wolves to die. It depends on what kind of wolves we're working with. If they want to kill as many people as possible to win more quickly, but risk getting killed during the night, OR if they would prefer it take longer to win with only 1 night kill, but at least only be at risk of getting lynched and not night killed themselves. It's tough to know basically whether this wolf team wants to keep the Bear around, or wants to get rid of him as fast as possible. If they think they're good enough to avoid lynching for a longer amount of time than they'll probably go for the latter and be safe from night kills, but if they feel they are likely lynch choices they may want to keep the Bear around to get the numbers down faster. I don't know how useful this speculation is though, even if they want to kill him asap it doesn't mean they'll be able too any more than we'll be able to lynch him.
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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#55 | ||
Bittersweet Symphony
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: On the jolly starship Enterprise
Posts: 1,814
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I'm not sensing a clear direction for the voting yet... I shall have to go back and peruse your posts once again. We have yet to hear from Eonwe, A Little Green, and Nogrod. Are they quivering with fear in the corner (AKA doing real life things) or trying to fly low under the radar? |
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#56 | |||
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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#57 | ||
Psyche of Prince Immortal
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It is the beginning of the game, and if we focus on removing the Bear and succeed in that, we simply remove another threat from the Lions. Sure, the Lions and Bear might work together to take out us innocents, but I find that unlikely since: A: They don't know who each other are, so as much as they want to be buddies, they could end up killing each other off. B: They are a bigger threat to each other this early in the game, since this is the first day and battle lines haven't been drawn yet. I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear. It is a double-edged sword, but by removing the Bear as a threat to the villagers we help the Lions. The greatest strength the villagers have is numbers, we can take a few blows for the greater good (the greater good) while we get a lay of the land. This is the nature of the game, and we cannot fight it. So if the Bear is reading this, I don't want you to be afraid but know that though it is (currently) 1/21 chance to be lynched, it would be a 1/18 chance for a Lion to get you. This whole talk of "getting the bear first" plays right into the Lion's hands, who just want another threat to them removed off the board in the guise of saving the innocents. Our key enemy here is the Lions, and the rules of the game dictate we must die for the greater good (the greater good), which I wholeheartedly accept and understand.
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Love doesn't blow up and get killed.
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#58 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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#59 |
Psyche of Prince Immortal
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Just a clarification, game over when all Lions are dead right? We don't have to hunt the bear as well do we?
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Love doesn't blow up and get killed.
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#60 | |
Fluttering Enchantment
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But even if the Bear "sides" with us, he'll still be doing night kills, right? Until all of the wolves are gone he would still be a threat to us?
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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#61 |
Fluttering Enchantment
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K, I think we're complicating it a bit. According to the admin thread "The innocents win when all Lions have been eliminated." So yeah, as soon as the Lions are all gone, the Village wins and if both Bear/Maiden are alive they win as well. In a traditional Bear game I think we would have had to keep hunting to get the Bear before we could win, but in this case he is foremost a Lover; so the traditional way for lovers to win is what applies here.
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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#62 | |
Psyche of Prince Immortal
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We lynch the bear, lose a night kill but the Lions gain a cobbler. Lions kill the bear, innocents gain a helper and we still lose a night kill. I prefer the odds of a Lion killing off a bear/maiden then us lynching them and essentially helping the Lions. Sure, the two-kill night could kill off more innocents, but could also kill off a lion and an innocent. Looking at the alternatives, lynching a bear/maiden will just end up helping the Lions more then helping the innocents.
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Love doesn't blow up and get killed.
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#63 |
Laconic Loreman
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It's no surprise wilwa understands bears better than the rest, but she's got a thing or two to learn about lions...
Lions the family and the name comes first. They will use the other houses as their weapons. In an inn this large, with this many families with divided loyalties and alterior motives it would be easy to lay low and let us do their dirty work, while taking out their worst threats at night. If the lions know who the bear and/or maiden is then they'll likely only become concerned if the bear becomes a clear threat by killing off Lions. However, the wiser move would be as I said, to use us as their weapons to get one of the lovers lynched, that way the other becomes a cobbler for them. And again in this inn with this many different allegiances it can be easier for the Lions to keep their paws clean.
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#64 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#65 | |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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If the lovers have decided to side with us, I assume he'd use the night kills to attempt to take out the last wolf. If he has no leads, maybe he'd skip the kill? |
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#66 | ||
shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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But enough of that, we have to trust the Targaryan's own judgement on this. Would the real Targaryan please stand up? ![]() Anyway, I have to vote now since I probably won't have time to do it later. This is of course a stab in the dark but I'll go with: ++Gil Galad He talks a lot but it's mostly echoes of what others have already said and he's careful not to be controversial. He argues whether we should go after the bear or the Lions which imo is a pretty moot point at present. This makes me suspect he's throwing out smokescreens. X:d from Boro
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"You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan |
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#67 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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This is an interesting Day 1! Lots of useful discussion about the numbers in the inn, the bear and maiden and alliances, and the Targaryen. I rather adore the changed dynamic from the other, smaller games I've been in.
The only problem is that most of this won't directly help us catch the lions. 21 in the Inn, made up of 16 innocents, 3 Lannisters, and the Bear and Maiden of undefined allegiance. Most of the people talking will be innocent or undefined, so though it's a good day for innocent discussion and planning, the odds are really against picking out a Lannister. I'm going to go and huddle by the fire under my many shawls and review what people have said so far. ![]() Edit: crossed with Skip Spence |
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#68 | |
Psyche of Prince Immortal
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Edit: x'd with Cop and Skip the bold
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Love doesn't blow up and get killed.
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#69 |
Child of the West
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn
Posts: 2,132
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Soooo I just got back to work today after 4 1/2 days of being gone and I cannot describe my current working situation in family friendly terms. I honestly don't think I will be able to contribute much more today. I have two 15 minutes breaks between now and DL, so my vote will be entirely random or will be based on flimsy feelings if I can find a suspicious post while I skim over the thread.
I'll be more active D2 when I've caught up at the office and the weekend descends. Sorry about this, didn't realize the world feel apart when I took a few days off. ![]()
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"Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain |
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#70 | |||||
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
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Then again, reading on, Wilwa's thoughts about the lovers seem more innocent-ish and trying-to-figure-it-out-right-ish. Then again, Wilwa is one main reason nearly all we do is talk about lovers instead about wolves, which I don't like. Quote:
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Last edited by Macalaure; 06-25-2014 at 09:53 AM. Reason: crossed with... lots |
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#71 | |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
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I just can't tell if the villains are likely to be engaged in this discussion or whether they'll sit at the sides.
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Los Ingobernables de Harlond |
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#72 | |
Psyche of Prince Immortal
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Sure it is a moot point, but what else are we talking about? Which houses we belong too (which has no effect on the role detirmination of the game that I know of)? I have an idea of who I want to vote for, but will hold off till closer to deadline time.
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Love doesn't blow up and get killed.
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#73 |
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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Yes he does. Foul murder is in his nature. Otherwise he'd probably get so hungry he'd eat the Maiden Fair. (This is actually not a threat.)
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
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#74 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I forgot the game yesterday-evening and am now busy watching football... I'll try to get this read through though and hopefully contribute something later. Sorry.
Looking at the brighter side: for once I'm not flooding the thread with theories and 20+ posts on D1! ![]()
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#75 | |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Tsk tsk - trying to neutralize our hunter for no good reason (a known ordo on Day 1? Pretty useless. A known ordo late in the game could be very valuable, as could a hunter kill) and now making the easiest of all easy votes? |
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#76 | ||
Fluttering Enchantment
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x'ed with Nog and Rikae, who I agree with
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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#77 | ||
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Unless it becomes obvious the bear is siding with the village, there's a good chance the wolves will appreciate the help in decreasing our numbers. They could form an alliance through hints; after all, in Lommy's scenario, the five of them could win quite quickly together. Quote:
Yeah, the bear will be a threat to the village in any event, and I, for one, will happily vote for anyone I strongly suspect of being black and brown and covered in hair! ++Macalaure ![]() Oh, by the way, Skip's vote doesn't count, does it? Aren't we supposed to do this newfangled highlighting nowadays? |
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#78 |
Bittersweet Symphony
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: On the jolly starship Enterprise
Posts: 1,814
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#79 | |
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
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#80 | ||
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
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Even if the wolves enjoy the presence of the bear, I'm sure they will enjoy it even more if we spend our time trying to kill him instead of going after them, thus increasing their likelihood of staying alive and then gift-wrapping them a cobbler while on top of it. Quote:
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