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09-23-2010, 07:17 PM | #721 |
Messenger of Hope
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Well, I really didn't see that one coming. That is ... sad...
I don't have time to go back and look at Mira's posts, but I'll see. I agree that Nerwen is probably good, but I've thought that all along. Back to class I go. -- Foley
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09-23-2010, 07:48 PM | #722 |
Werewolf Psychic
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Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
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I don't even know what to think about that. Ugggh. I love me some Mira, but couldn't our Seer have been someone who, I don't know, participated? Blech.
Back in a bit with some thoughts (I'm at rehearsal right now).
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
09-23-2010, 07:57 PM | #723 | |
Werewolf Psychic
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Having read all (eleven) of Stick's posts, I've come to the following conclusions -
- Given Stick's #627, I'm inclined to think that her dreams were Phantom, Nerwen, and myself (she thinks all three of us are innocent and doesn't really give hardcore opinions on anyone else). - Given her rep vote for Phantom early on, I'm inclined to think Phantom was her Night 1 dream. - Based on this quote: Quote:
- Based on those, I think whatever night isn't accounted for (night 2?) is the night she dreamt of Nerwen. That's all I could gather from her posts. The rest was talking about Sally and apologizing for not being active/promises to do better.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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09-23-2010, 08:51 PM | #724 | ||
Wisest of the Noldor
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The other thing is– why did Greenie go so heavily after me? It wasn't as if there was general support for lynching me– and I had voting-power, whereas there were seven disenfranchised folk who would have made easier victims. Thoughts– 1. Was it the case that the only lynchable-looking people among the er... general public were her fellows? 2. Was she counting on the support of a fellow-rep?
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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09-23-2010, 09:12 PM | #725 | ||||||||
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
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Given Mira's relatively submarine performance, I find it incredible she was the Seer. It's even more confounding that the Elves figured that out.
I had a good feeling about Foley already, and based on her late words that we shouldn't lynch Nerwen for nebulous reasons, I was thinking Foley could be the Seer. I know Shasta sort of did this already, but I'm doing it as well. Quote:
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The words about Nog aren't as clear. Seems ambiguous enough to have been just her opinion. That was Day 2, though. Why didn't she comment on her Night 2 dream if it wasn't Nog? Quote:
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Anndd....that appears to be it. Based on that, I think we can at least conclude phantom's innocence. *mutters* x/d with Nerwen
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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09-23-2010, 09:24 PM | #726 | |
Beloved Shadow
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If it weren't for his rather explicit statement about Lommy and I being innocent, I would have without any doubt guessed at Mira being the Seer and at the end of the day I would have hinted that I had dreamt Mira, Shasta, and Nerwen to be innocent, and then the Elves probably would have killed me. But instead I picked Rune as my Seer and so in my ruse I claimed that he and Lommy were innocent, along with Kath (I added Kath because I thought three dreams would look more powerful). What that tells me is that it is nearly a guarantee that Rune, Lommy, or Kath is an Elf, and likely that Rune or Lommy is. And just to point out, if Mira's grouping of me-Shasta-Nerwen with her in the innocent column wasn't meant to be Seer dream info, then I'd say we're screwed. A Seer knows they're the Seer and knows that people are going to go back and read their posts if they die, and so if she chose in her final post to say that Phantom, Shasta, and Nerwen were in the same innocence category as herself, then we HAVE to operate based upon that. If that's wrong then it is not our fault. We can't worry about that. So, everyone mark it down- DO NOT vote as a Rep anyone other than Shasta-Nerwen-Phantom unless we come up with some sort of five-lynch plan. Agreed?
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the phantom has posted.
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09-23-2010, 09:32 PM | #727 |
Messenger of Hope
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Is Mira experienced enough to realize that after her death all her comments on innocents are going to be used as evidence in their favor? Surely she wouldn't put up as her most highly trusted people those she had not dreamt of? Hope not.
I half thought yesterday that I might be night-killed because it was possible the wolves would've thought I was seer. To be quite honest, I thought Nerwen was our seer, based on something she said day 1. That was why I was pretty upset when Greenie was going to try to get her lynched. I thought it'd be pretty ridiculous if the village lynched their own seer. I'd like to hear a lot more from Rune, Steve, and Kath today. Otherwise, I'll be inclined to suspect them. I seirously am under the impression that Shasta, Inzil, and Phantom are all innocent. Oh, and Nerwen, of course. -- Fols
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09-23-2010, 09:39 PM | #728 | |
Werewolf Psychic
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Quote:
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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09-23-2010, 09:56 PM | #729 | |||
Wisest of the Noldor
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Quote:
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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09-24-2010, 01:34 AM | #730 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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So, where do the different lines of reasoning lead us?
1. Theory: Mira was killed as the only Seer-candidate who hadn't listed an Elf as innocent (or wasn't a Elf). Other possible "Seers" would be would be Rune (Lommy, Kath, phantom), Folwren (Nerwen, Inzil, Lommy), phantom (copied Rune's list, substituting Rune's name for his). Implicates: Rune, Kath, Lommy (twice), Zil. And Folwren for the sake of argument, though after yesterDay there's much against the idea that she is an Elf. A good deal against Zil being one, too. 2. Theory: Greenie went after Nerwen (rep) because there was no innocent non-rep she could have lynched easily. Implicates: Steve. Perhaps Legate? (I'd have to re-read; reckon she could have got Steve lynched, anyway/) 3. Theory: Greenie went after me because she was expecting another rep to vote with her (i.e. one who bussed her instead): Implicates: Zil, Rune. (More the latter, as his vote could be said to have been forced.)
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
09-24-2010, 03:41 AM | #731 | ||||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Here for a short moment, just briefly...
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Well, I think it doesn't necessary mean that - it could just have been a good way to cast a random vote, hoping to get lost in the crowd of phantom-voters and get some pass for the Day from the SoE (for being a bit suspicious, and too random for being the Seer). It would expose her to some threat of being lynched, but then, there were like two other people who did the same, so she could have hoped for merging with the crowd, so to say, and not feeling the threat so strongly. I find it more likely that she'd dream of phantom later - certainly after the Day 1 events, I think in any case, every Seer would do that. But I didn't really have time to go through all her posts and am working only based on my memory and what others quote here. I will look at her posts later myself. Not that it seems to matter whether she dreamt of tp on Night 1 or whatnot. Basically the three-list above is the thing I am going to use. It is quite lucky that anyway, if it is so, she didn't dream of somebody who died at the same Night - that's actually what I had been afraid of all the time, since the Seer didn't seem to come out with any dreams. Quote:
Okay, whatever, gotta run now. Will be back later toDay, in several hours...
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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09-24-2010, 06:57 AM | #732 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Hey, anyone around? I'm lonely.
By the way– Quote:
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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09-24-2010, 07:09 AM | #733 |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
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I'm here momentarily, but maybe not for long, since I just got into work and see all the voice and e-mails.
I do like the quote, though.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
09-24-2010, 07:28 AM | #734 | |
Messenger of Hope
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Quote:
I am at work and I'll have my eye on this, but I won't have time to investigate anybody. -- Fol
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09-24-2010, 07:46 AM | #735 | |
Odinic Wanderer
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It was not like I had anything in particular against voting for Greenie, but I wouldn't have done it if it wasn't for you guys and Folwren. People are starting to talk a lot about Lommy, I for some reason have had a lot of faith in her. First I thought she made sense and appeared very innocent, after that she made a post where she claimed to know Me, Legate and Nogrod quite well and believed us all to be innocent. I am quite a ware that a SoE could easily create such a list as they know exactly who is innocent and who isn't, but in this case I chose to believe that it was pure skill that made her pick innocents. (This is also the reason I haven't really paid attention to Legate, also I can never get a read on him) I will not end this post with a conclusion, I am merely telling you what thoughts I have had about Lommy. |
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09-24-2010, 07:49 AM | #736 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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I just hope the Cupcake's reading this.
Anyway, I think it might be an idea if we followed the phantom's suggestion (can I really be saying this?) and elected me, tp and Shasta as reps. EDIT:X'd with Rune.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. Last edited by Nerwen; 09-24-2010 at 08:16 AM. |
09-24-2010, 07:50 AM | #737 |
Odinic Wanderer
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I am fine with this.
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09-24-2010, 07:57 AM | #738 |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
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I know I won't be around at DL, and probably not for a few hours before that. I intend to get back here later, but I'll go ahead and do this now.
++phantom for rep Seems the most likely to have been dreamed by Mira.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
09-24-2010, 08:33 AM | #739 | |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
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How many of us are there? Do we want the three to have equal amount of votes? I think that'd be the best. Of tp, Shasta and Nerwen, I would prefer to give my vote to Nerwen, as I like her the most - I don't know so much about Shasta other than he was on Mira's list, and giving a vote to tp... well... (oh yes, of course it's such a lifetime event that I would prefer to do it with fanfares and all that stuff...) But if we all decide to give our votes to those three, it does not matter, effectively, who votes for whom. Related to this, though, we should then still at least express our opinions as to whom we would like to lynch, or whom we trust etc., so that we don't just sit idly around, and most of all, so that we have some leading (because if the Day just consisted of everybody mechanically voting one of the three, there won't be much to analyse). I probably will spend the evening with at least a few analyses, especially if I am not going to be around much toMorrow. Shall be around...
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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09-24-2010, 09:44 AM | #740 | ||
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
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Hmmm...
I think today I'm going to got through everybody's ties with Lottie and Greenie, and also check Mira's posts myself. I'm inclined to think right now that she'd have been unforgivably stupid if she had let undreamt people to her "innocent" category in her last post so seems like we can take phantom, Nerwen and Shasta's innocence for granted. (But I still find Shasta's innocence difficult to believe especially after Greenie was revealed a wolf! That was good job guy btw. ) Quote:
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And seems like my theory about tp being a village-friendly UO in contact with the seer was proved wrong. What a pity - I really thought I knew what was up with his scheming... I also have to admit speculating he was the real seer (now that would've been just really cool!). Off to have dinner, then off to analyse.
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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09-24-2010, 10:11 AM | #741 | ||
Wisest of the Noldor
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Quote:
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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09-24-2010, 10:16 AM | #742 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Anyway–
++Shasta for Rep
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
09-24-2010, 10:31 AM | #743 |
Messenger of Hope
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So, wait..what's going to happen if we get these three people into representative spots? Are we killing three people tonigt? Isn't that Phantom's plan?
-- Foley
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A young man who wishes to remain a sound atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. - C.S. Lewis |
09-24-2010, 10:59 AM | #744 |
Everlasting Whiteness
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phantom, Shasta or Nerwen?
Mira would have dreamt of phantom for sure, and if he was evil she'd have made it clear. ++phantom for Rep Sorry, voting and running toDay.
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“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
09-24-2010, 11:24 AM | #745 |
Odinic Wanderer
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++Nerwen for Rep
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09-24-2010, 01:57 PM | #746 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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++Nerwen
I'd just like to say publically that I feel the worst about Legate and Lommy right now, but I won't have time to say why until about four hours until after the second half of toDay starts. Sorry, all.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
09-24-2010, 02:32 PM | #747 |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
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I went through all Greenie's posts, trying to find what she said about other people and how it might possibly help us. There are some things interesting, but generally, she seemed rather careful what she says about people, except for when she decided for heedless pursuit of somebody (like sally or partially Nerwen).
Day 1: On first Day, she, in my opinion rather obviously sought a way to incriminate the phantom and save Lottie by picking sally out of the two. She made a list in the first half of the Day, while some players (Cel, Kath, Mira, Steve and Wilwa) haven't been around yet. Later, she seemed in a hurry and aside from her vote, she only had a large list of players whom she found "innocentish" in the second part of the Day (Lommy, Shasta, Rune, Foley and Nerwen); and then she suspected the phantom-triangle (sally, Lottie, tp). Conclusions: depending on her tactics and on who of her mates was around, she didn't have to necessary express her opinions on each of them; but I would find it logical that she would try to make at least some of her mates look good, or at least not incriminate them (she already had Lottie for that anyway). That said, she didn't really seem to try to incriminate anybody except for the tp trio. If she put one of her mates into the list of "innocentish" people, then there are our "known innocents"; if we take them off, Rune, Lommy and Foley remain. Which is not exactly encouraging at least to me, as those folks seem rather innocent to me in general - if I was to pick, then I would say that Rune is the most likely to me to be a SoE. Might be that Greenie kept all her mates out in the "more or less nothing"-cathegory, or that they simply haven't been around yet (which means basically Steve and Kath of those who are alive). Day 2: Didn't want to get much into the phantom-Nerwen row. Once again she made a list of everybody, with rather dubious "I hope there are no elves here" by-the-way-comment in the "not alarming" cathegory. Aside from those she thought "innocentish" on Day 1, in this cathegory there is also me, Nog, Phantom (surprise!) and Wilwa. There is also "under the radar" cathegory (Cel, Glirdy, Kath, Mira, Steve, Zil) and "makes me bang my head against the wall" with Nerwen and Sally. She seemed to flip-flop, or respectively pretend to flip-flop on Nerwen. While once again mentioning whom she trusts, she mentioned Nog, Shasta, Rune and phantom. She quite suddenly voted Steve for Rep. After the Reps have been chosen, she said she is happy with them all: Shasta and Foley totally and Nog, Legate and Steve "all inclined to find more innocentish than not but that I'd love to get a better feel of". Later liked Kath, more wary of Wilwa but still finding her innocent, and she told the Reps to lynch sally and "wouldn't object to lynching Cel or Mira". Wished the Reps would leave Shasta, Lommy, Wilwa and tp alone; also didn't want Rune to be lynched. Conclusions: if Nerwen is innocent, then Greenie could have here very well just started to look for chances to incriminate somebody else beyond herself who didn't vote exactly for Lottie, or something like that, and found her for that. The biggest "move" was probably her suddenly being ok with the phantom and suddenly choosing Steve (she said she did so by following Rune's example, but never gave more explanation) while before she had him merely as "no read". I don't know if a SoE would vote for a mate so obviously and in such way, and her flip-flops on Steve seem not to have any logical reasoning behind them. Could have been that she tried to get a fellow for Rep, but then again, why so clumsily - unless e.g. on Day 1 she wanted to keep distance from him and suddenly after Lottie's death the SoE realised they need to get him there, or something... but it's just rather weird (also would depend on who would be the last SoE). But generally, she seemed to list basically everybody as either innocent or "no read" at most, and kept focusing on sally and on sally only, and flip-flopping on Nerwen. In any case, if I was to think of her general strategy, from this it seems to me that she tried to be just on good terms with everybody and not listing more or less anybody as suspicious. Day 3: Admits "barking at the wrong sally" for two Days, thinks tp innocent, raised some suspicion against Steve and started to have second thoughts even on some people she thought innocent before (especially Shasta and me, and suddenly switched Rune into "undecided" cathegory). Later debated among two undecided - Rune and Inzil - and two she thought innocent - Lommy and Foley - for Reps, ended up with Inzil. Later, when being the Rep herself again, she seemed to play on all sides, considering basically all three other Reps at some point, whether she could not vote one of them, although her cases for Inzil and Rune seemed forced (and she basically discarded them herself, since she didn't have any earlier basis for them). Ended up voting Nerwen, which didn't work, as we all know. Conclusion: Basically once again, she had people at most in the "undecided" cathegory. She didn't really suspect anybody, but she had some dubious flip-flopping remarks on just about everyone. Overall conclusion: I think I just spent a few hours with not really getting too much out of that. There doesn't seem to be any clear pattern in Greenie's behavior, except that she tries to behave in a "politically correct" way. This way, she could easily place her fellows into any cathegory she likes and flip-flop on them as much as she wants. Of the living players, she seemed to be "buttering up" Lommy the most - and I really wonder if she'd do that if Lommy was her fellow Wolf. Kath or even Zil would seem more likely, or Foley. She made quite interesting almost-180-changes on Steve. She said a lot about those who are on Mira's list, she supported Shasta quite strongly basically all the way, and had constant thoughts about Nerwen, in one way or another. The name sticking the most out of the analysis, then, if I discount phantom, Shasta and Nerwen, is Steve. Even that is, however, still just one name. And the main problem I find is that I cannot find a link of two people there, like two other Wolves. In any case, this is probably it from me toDay - I am going to Rep-vote and go. And like I said, I will be around toMorrow probably only late in the evening. Just hope the Reps decide well.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
09-24-2010, 02:37 PM | #748 |
Beloved Shadow
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Inzil-->Phantom
Nerwen-->Shasta Kath-->Phantom (2) Rune-->Nerwen Shasta-->Nerwen (2) Okay, so, Shasta needs another vote to make him a Rep. What we do with other votes is up to you people. Do you want all of us to be tied with 2 or 3 Rep votes so we can triple-lynch if we wish? Or is a double all you'd go for? Anyway, sorry I haven't been around much, but today is a very busy day. The second half of the day will be better for me.
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the phantom has posted.
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09-24-2010, 02:44 PM | #749 |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
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Okay, there's 10 of us, right? That means if we vote only those we spoke of, then basically three people vote for each Rep, and each Rep will have three votes, and then one of us shouldn't vote, or somebody will just have one more vote.
In either case, now the situation should be (if I counted right): Phantom is a Rep with 2, Nerwen is a Rep with 2, and Shasta has 1. I assume somebody to vote for Shasta still, and I said earlier that I prefer Nerwen anyway - and jokes aside, I'd trust her the most (and even in case we were wrong about Mira's list and there was a Wolf among these three, I find her the least likely). So basically here goes the third vote - ++Nerwen for Rep Good night, see you later in the second half of toDay; Reps, choose well. EDIT: x-ed with phantom
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
09-24-2010, 02:52 PM | #750 | |||
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
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NOOOO!
Though, to be honest, it was only a matter of time. She was the one I thought most likely out of the two people I thought could be the seer (The other being Legate), which I came up with on the basis of possible subtle hints by usage of words from the "Seerish" lexical group, such as "see", "look" and "dream". For example, the jumped out to me, especially the "take a look at sally" part, which I read as a hint that she wanted to dream Sally that Night, especially as she mentioned her all Day. This, for example, with that knowledge, looks like a distressed Seer that is worried about their dreams being ineffective for their side: Quote:
Quote:
For Legate, I was just thinking small things like "Mesa see" and "But we shall see" in his first post, as well as his vague tone which would not offend anyone too much suggested a possible Seerdom. Anyway, my point was, if I can see it (and I'm not really known for my receptivity to nuances), then I'm pretty sure it wasn't that hidden. That said, it's always sad to see the seer go before revealing (and revealing the last wolves). Quote:
And I agree with the general idea that Phantom, Nerwen and Shasta are most likely to be innocent based on Mira's posts, though it does seem convenient that her three most likely "dreams" are all still alive. Well, this post was from a few hours ago, and I had to go before I could finish off a few sentences, so I'm x-ing with everything after Rune's vote for Nerwen and am going to read what I've missed. edit: Well, not too many actually, by the looks of it.
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09-24-2010, 02:58 PM | #751 | |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
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Quote:
EDIT: x-ed with Steve. Good night, now definitely.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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09-24-2010, 03:01 PM | #752 |
Flame Imperishable
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Well, I might as well vote for my rep now, and post more afterwards, since we're all agreed- which, I might add, makes it far easier for the elves to hide toDay (at least in Part 1 of the Day).
Anyway, though he's annoyed me a lot this game, I don't think I've ever actually thought him evil, so I'm nominating: ++the phantom for rep.
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09-24-2010, 03:04 PM | #753 |
Flame Imperishable
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And just to explain, out of the three, I find Shasta the most suspicious, which is why I'm not voting for him. Though I admit that he always looks the same to me, and sometimes it makes me think he's innocent, and sometimes guilty. But this time he definitely seems less innocent than the other two.
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09-24-2010, 03:52 PM | #754 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
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Posts: 8,093
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Megalysis
Okay, decided not to look at Mira's posts myself as Zil quoted them all anyway and I think we've reached a conclusion on her dreams in any case. So off to other work...
Omitting our three known innocents... ~*~ LOTTIE Legate Legate about Lottie Day1: #45 indirectly says Lottie and Sally's votes might've been out of lack of time, lack of imagination on d1 or SoE bandwagon hiding reasons. #60 worries about Rune's buddying up with people and throws Lottie and Sally to the same category. #68 agrees with Boro's criticism of Lottie and Sally. #100 wouldn't vote her for a rep because of the tp-connection and (relative) absence. #270 mentions her among several others as someone whose lynching he'd consider. Lottie about Legate - nothing - Lommy Lommy about Lottie Day1: #46 does not "heart" Lottie and criticises her "stupid" rep vote. #52 apologises to Sally and Lottie for possible offense. #113 is annoyed by her and other tp-voters but doesn't have any "actual clear reasonable suspicions" against them. #237 Lottie is in her worrisome half of the village. #242 wonders about Lottie's change of mind considering tp and says that if he turns out to be a wolf, we should look at the people who rep-voted him. #247 brings up Lottie's wolfy cheerfulness and voting first and coming up with reasons afterwards and wonders if she should change her mind about her. #254 would like to vote Lottie (and possibly give 1/3 votes to Cel). #264 wonders whether to give Lottie two or three votes. #266 votes her with three votes. The first lynch vote to be given to anyone. Comments: "a bit less of a shot in the dark than most other options". Lottie about Lommy Day1: #306 defends herself against Lommy's points. Zil Zil about Lottie Day1: #47 agrees with Lommy's criticism of Lottie and Sally's votes #268 replies to Lommy's question saying he'd like to see one of phantom, Sally or Lottie dead, dislikes phantom's supporting the girls' votes for him. Lottie about Zil Day1: #175 corrects Folwren's misinformation on him #187 explains her nicknames for him and Izzy Folwren Lottie about Folwren Day1: #175 corrects her misinformation about Zil. #189 defends tp against her point criticising the two of them and Sally. #196 continues argueing with her to defend tp. Folwren about Lottie Day1: #188 says her and Sally's were not logical or worthwhile and wonders why tp doesn't see this. #193 replies Lottie's defense in a slightly lecturing tone. #239 says the "Sally-and-Lottie-baseless-votes-for-phantom issue" has been discussed enough. True, but it's funny how everything looks so suspicious taken out of context like this... Eönwë Eönwë about Lottie Day1: #101 argues against her reasons for voting for tp as a rep. #120 she is among the "other people" he has no idea bout yet. #260 argues against her points again. #267 would be annoyed if she, Sally and tp are all wolves but thinks it's likely there are Elves in the triangle. Lottie about Eönwë #306 counter-criticism against him. Kath and Rune didn't have any interaction with Lottie. Which is quite weird given that she was the hot potato of the Day... ~*~ GREENIE Lommy Lommy about Greenie Day1: #113 argues against her points, loves her, likes her and agrees with her but wonders if her vote was even too good, considers her for rep vote. #118 votes Greenie for rep because they are "on the same wavelength". Haha, that sounds bad in the light of the current knowledge, doesn't it? #209 thanks Shasta for taking up her and Greenie's crusade against tp. #217 explains Greenie's internet-problems to the Cave. #237 Greenie is in her not so worrisome half of the village. #266 lets her use the computer. Day2 #419 claims she can read her (and Legate and Rune) well and believes them all innocent. Wouldn't it be funny if Legate and Rune turned out to be wolves too? #452 replies to her questioning her Wilwa comments. #459 repeats claim of being able to read her and thinks her very innocent. Greenie must've been so gleeful reading my posts... Day3 #557 starting to reconsider her previous opinion of Greenie and Legate but still more thinking them innocent. #566 agrees with her about Rune's post being ironic. #590 creeps herself out by half-seriously speculating a phantom-Greenie-Kath pack. #632 answers Nerwen's question about her opinion on Legate and Greenie by: "And no idea about Greenie and Legate. Currently thinking Legate is probably innocent and very unsure about Greenie. " #659 has started to suspect her quite randomly but has a bad feeling her suspicion is wrong, lists her under "difficult" with more than half of the remaining cavers. Speculates about a Shasta+Nerwen+Greenie pack but thinks Greenie+Nerwen unlikely. #663 discusses the lynch options and prefers Shasta. "Zil/Nerwen/Greenie I'm torn about but I would possibly prefer Greenie... not sure at all." Greenie about Lommy Day1: #69 agrees with Lommy's points. #76 says she seems genuine but isn't sure if she wants to vote her for a rep. #79 explains Lommy's point to phantom. #274 inclined to think her innocentish. Day2: #357 delivers her message to the Cave. #365 thinks her very innocent and partly because of her Lottie-vote. #406 hands over the computer to her. #448 asks her how can anyone (Wilwa) be fishy in an innocent way. #462 clarifies Lommy's typo (by request). #471 asks the Cave not to lynch Lommy, tp, Wilwa or Shasta. Day3: #572 can't see her as an Elf, if she's an Elf she deserves to win. #573 considers rep-voting her because she seems innocent. #582 considering rep-votes: "I'm debating right now between phantom, Lommy, Rune and Zil." #583 continues considering rep-votes: "Not Lommy. She, too, has already been a rep, and I don't think that much can be learned from her being one again." #642 mentions her in a nerwielysis. Zil Greenie about Zil Day1: #69 agrees with his point of witholding rep votes. #76 can't read him yet but not alarmed. Day2: #365 agonises about never being able to read him. Day3: #572 thinks he's too smooth and can't read him. Anyone else thinking this repetition starts to go quite over the top...? #573 considers him for rep because he hasn't been one yet and making him vote might reveal more of him. #582 considering rep-votes: "I'm debating right now between phantom, Lommy, Rune and Zil." #583 continues considering rep-votes: "Rune or Inzil for me, then. Both kind of shots in the dark. I'd like to know a bit more about both though." #584 rep-votes him. "Because an innocent Inzil can make a good decision on my behalf, and an evil Inzil will hopefully be revealed. " Makes Zil looks worse than Rune. #649 asks who Zil wants to lynch. #652 has an uneasy feeling about him but won't vote him because she doesn't have "even half-decent arguments". #656 says Zil she doesn't want to vote phantom like he suggests, asks for his opinion about Nerwen. Even though she was his rep, it would be really weird if wolves were conversing this openly with each other on the thread... #660 "like I said, I'm slightly uneasy about him though with no arguments to base it on, wouldn't mind seeing him lynched." Zil about Greenie Day1: #124 wonders if he should join her in voting Nerwen for a rep. Day2: #376 replies her points about phantom and Sally. #409 Greenie is green and doesn't ping his Elfdar, indirectly defends her Sally-vote. Day3: #564 replies to her points, kind of arguing/explaining. #606 votes her for rep because: she has already one rep vote, she has been a rep and she's not on tp's "want list" (what's that?) and better than Nerwen since Foley whom he trusts nominated her first. Interesting logic... This starts to look fishy all in all. #645 mentions her in a stevielysis. #700 thinks she overreacted to Nerwen's point against her but doesn't think it vote-meriting. #703 wonders about Rune's sudden suspicion of her and Nerwekeke. #713 votes Greenie, is the third one to do so. Talk about sudden suspicions... #715 says Foley is why he voted Green. Legate Greenie about Legate Day1:#69 expands on his point about rep voting the same person. #76 says he seems reasonable so far. #95 wonders if he is the Emperor's cat. Day2: #365 isn't too worried about him because an elf-Legate would be more "polished". This sounds very un-wolf-on-wolfy because it seems like a very genuine notion on his behaviour. Of course there is the possibility, if you want to argue, that Greenie was impressed by her fellow's acting skills and mentions it here, but given I made the very same notion about Legate myself it seems difficult to argue... #448 "Nog, Steve and Legate are all players I'm inclined to find more innocentish than not but that I'd love to get a better feel of." #473 replies to his inquiry about lynch preferences. Day3: #572 says he's leaning innocent for her. #660 "would be somewhere in my "no idea, maybe leaning innocent" -category, quite honestly I haven't paid that much attention to him." Legate about Greenie Day1: #97 is disturbed by her suggestion that he's the Emperor's cat. #100 calls her reasonable and has her as an option for his rep vote. #136 mentions her being his rep vote possibility but since other people support electing her too he contemplates leaving her for others to vote Haha sounds like a wolf trying to keep the tallies clean for himself! (Not seriously though, just occured to me and it sounded stupidly funny, or rather, funnily stupid.) #147 mentions her briefly in his musing about his rep vote. Day2: #427 mentions her vote while discussing the previous Day's voting but doesn't say much. It's funny how he keeps mentioning the wolves but saying precious little on them... #470 she seems mostly innocent despite bad vote but won't get his rep vote. For some reason I get innocent vibes from this comment. Day3: #577 "I had generally good feeling about her, although now that sally's been proven innocent, one could start wondering about her constant case against her." #662 would like to have a look at her and several others. Foley Greenie about Foley Day1: #76 can't form an opinion on her yet. #274 inclined to think her innocentish. Day2: #365 would be really surprised if she was an Elf. #448 happy that she's a rep and pretty sure she's innocent. Day3: #572 still thinks her innocent, discusses her behaviour at Day2 voting and says it seems genuine. #652 whines to her that she still wants to vote Nerwen. Foley about Greenie Day1: nothing Day2: #524 uses her points as a basis of her suspicions of Sally. Day3: #585 votes her for rep. #648 tells her it's not a good idea to lynch-vote Nerwen. #664 asks us not to freak out but she has a very bad feeling about Greenie her rep, got it only after her rep-vote when she started reading more. #681 announces she's writing a post about her. This would be very cold-hearted wolvish backstabbing... #687 says she lost her post about her and asks people if they'd like her to rewrite her thoughts. #698 the promised Greenie-post. Doesn't really reach any conclusion except that Greenie and Rune might be fellows. #702 Greenie conclusions: if she's an Elf, she's a goo one but Foley doesn't trust her. The lack of good reasons for suspicions is suspicious. Rune Greenie about Rune Day1: #76 more inclined to think him innocent on the little evidence she has. #274 inclined to think him innocentish. Day2: #365 gets good vibes from him. #406 follows his lead when it comes to rep voting and likes him. #473 thinks him innocent. Day3: #560 thinks it's ironic his post was innocent except for the part where he considered his own post suspicious. #572 is very undecided and flip-floppy about him. #581 replies to Kath considering her read on Rune's ironic post. #582 considering rep-votes: "I'm debating right now between phantom, Lommy, Rune and Zil." #583 continues considering rep-votes: "Rune or Inzil for me, then. Both kind of shots in the dark. I'd like to know a bit more about both though." #584 chooses Zil over Rune because Rune is a tad easier to read. #652 names him as a lynching option based on her opinion on him being torn and Kath's good points. #656 still torn about him, but would rather like to see him dead than someone she considers innocent. #660 "I'm still considering Rune as well, my vote will in all probability go for either him or Nerwen." #667 torn about voting him or Nerwie. #669 asks him who he's considering for voting. #675 decides not to vote him because of her lack of arguments against him. Rune about Greenie Day1: #218 says that if he was a rep he'd vote her, Glirdy or Steve. Suspects her for not committing enough. Day2: #386 doesn't trust her although she seems good, can't put his finger on it. Day3: #561 replies semi-philosophically to her about stuff being ironic. #621 wants to look over her and a few others' posts. #655 doesn't know what to think of her. #673 replies to her question about his voting preferences, mentions that he has an uneasy feeling about her. #688 encourages Foley to rewrite her post about Greenie. #695 she is one of his lynch options but not the primary one. #710 will vote her to save his own skin. #712 does that, cross-posting with Nerwen and thus giving the second vote for her. Kath Greenie about Kath Day1: #76 mentions her as someone who hasn't been around yet. Day2: #365 she's under her radar. #453 yays her appearance. Day3: #572 needs more data on her but notes that her long Day2 post looked genuine. #581 continues on her point about Rune, says it's pity Kath is busy and can't become a rep because of that. #652 uses her points against Rune. Kath about Greenie Day1: nothing Day2: #460 likes her for asking interesting questions. #461 she feels innocent to her. Day3: #578 replies her comments, concludes with: "Good suspicions post, lots of reasoning." #580 likes her but wants to read her more in-depth (especially about her relation to Wilwa) before rep-voting her. #643 mentions her in a runelysis. Eönwë Greenie about Eönwë Day1: #76 mentions him as someone who hasn't been around yet. Day2: #365 has no read on him and says he might need a closer look. #406 votes him for rep. Again quite from behing the corner. Makes me wonder... #448 "Nog, Steve and Legate are all players I'm inclined to find more innocentish than not but that I'd love to get a better feel of." Day3: #572 would love to check his posts and calls him a potential elf for smooth behaviour. #573 considers him for rep because he hasn't been one yet and making him vote might reveal more of him. #618 commiserates with him about the difficulty of the game. Eönwë about Greenie Day1: #120 considers voting her for rep Huh, that came quite out of the blue... #137 votes her for rep over Legate because he likes her reasoning and doesn't think she's evil #267 refers to her earlier point regarding the Lottie-Sally-tp triangle. Day2: #497 says she seemed innocent yesterDay but not so much toDay. Won't lynch-vote but wants to reread. Day3: #682 is getting evil undertones from Greenie's recent posts. Talk about rats leaving the stinking ship... (Oops what a typo! Can't resist leaving it uncorrected, though... ) ~*~ Conclusions in a separate post, this one is long enough... They are unwritten as of yet though so this will still take a moment... edit: xed with very many posts
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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09-24-2010, 04:16 PM | #755 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Conclusions
Eönwë
Interactions with Lottie: not much stuff. They bicker a lot. Wonder if that means anything - could be a hint of Eönwë's innocene. Inteactions with Greenie: fishy. They rep-vote each other quite out of the blue on successive Days, and Eönwë's two successive 90 degree turns on Greenie look weird - or more like, the latter one looks quite wolf on wolfy. Overall: Questionable or more on the furry side. Folwren Interactions with Lottie: arguing could be a sign of not relatedness, don't know what to make of Folwren's desire to stop talking about the three. Interactions with Greenie: if she was a wolf, she would be the worst backstabber I've seen for a while. Overall: Neutralish + good = most likely innocent. Kath Interactions with Lottie: none. Interactions with Greenie: nice-nice trustiness. Not much stuff, though. Overall: Too little data to go by. Looks eyebrow-raising worthy, though. Legate Interactions with Lottie: careful suspicion but somebody else is always worse. I don't like this. Interactions with Greenie: quite non-committal. Mutual relative trust. Hmmm...? Overall: Looks quite bad. But it would've been still ingenious of Greenie to say that thing about him being more polished as a wolf if they were fellows. Lommy These will be for you to make. Rune Interactions with Lottie: none. Weird, eh, given that he was around for most of the Day... Interactions with Greenie: she goes from trusting him to slight suspicion and is torn about voting him but decides not to = fishy. Otherwise, either he's an eager backstabber or innocent. Overall: Given that I don't put eager backstabbing past Rune by any means, he is more fishy than not. Zil Interactions with Lottie: Very little data, but she seems to talk rather "personal" about him, while all he says about her is commenting something Lommy has said. Weird. Interactions with Greenie: Uh. She keeps the cover of being unable to read him all the time, wishy-washes on whether to rep-vote him or not, light suspicion on both sides until Zil goes turncloaks and votes her quite randomly. Mutual rep votes. Looks very bad but I wonder if they'd really discuss that openly if they were fellows... Overall: Orange if not red zone. Beep beep beep! Overall overall: Foley's innocent. I don't know what to think of Legate because he's confusing. Rune, Kath and Eönwë all look slightly fishy, Inzil more than slightly. Such conclusive conclusions. Anyway, now off to read all I have cross-posted with with these two posts of mine... edit: DIDN'T x. Weird.
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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09-24-2010, 04:38 PM | #756 | |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Quote:
Lastly, I have a phantomesque plan. Since we have six unknowns and three known innocents who are going to be our reps, wouldn't it actually make sense to group lynch the six of us? Since splitting votes is allowed, it should be very easy. Each rep gives one vote to one of the six and we will have a tie. Extra votes are not used or are used like ++pumpkin pie++ or whatever. Or if Moddess doesn't allow that we could try to get everybody just two rep votes...? (Ah okay there's not that option anymore. I wonder if the reps could give 1,5 votes to people? ) Somebody (phantom darling? ) please think this out for me, I'm too tried to think properly. ++Shasta for rep PS. My current suspicion list out of the six unknowns would probably be: 1. Zil, 2. Kath, 3. Steve, 4. Rune, 5. Legate (for some reason I just can't honestly suspect him seriously whatever the evidence says... well if I turn out to be fooled then we can say love is blind ), 6. Folwren, 7. Lommy (I know you can't take my word for this, but I'm not a wolf. I'd totally have loved wolfing with my sister but alas that was not the case. I don't think I would've backstabbed her if we had been fellows. That would've been double treachery. I could in a certain situation/mood have backstabbed Lottie on Day1, though, even though it would've been quite drastic of me. This is all the defense from me you shall get because there haven't been any proper accusations yet and I won't probably be around to hear more.) PPS. Just realised I had omitted myself so we have seven people to lynch, bleurgh. Well it could probably still work out if not using all votes was allowed...
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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09-24-2010, 04:39 PM | #757 |
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
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The Great Eönwë-list
Night 1
Seer Dream Day 1 Representative votes: Sally |Orc| -> Phantom Lottie |Elf|-> Phantom (2) Rune -> Lommy Greenie |Elf| -> Nerwen Nog |Orc| -> Izzy |Orc| Mira |Seer|-> Phantom (3) Boro |Orc| -> Wilwa Lommy -> Greenie |Elf| Steve -> Greenie |Elf| (2) Inzil -> Boro |Orc| Shasta -> Izzy |Orc| (2) Legate -> Nerwen (2) Celuien |Orc| -> Foley Phantom -> Celuien |Orc| Nerwen -> Lommy Wilwa |Orc| -> Lommy Foley -> Celuien |Orc| [2- same Day] Izzy |Orc| -> Wilwa Representatives: (3):Phantom, Lommy (2):Nerwen, [B]Izzy |Orc|, Wilwa, Greenie |Elf|, Celuien |Orc| Did not vote: Glirdy, Kath Lynch votes: Lommy +++ Lottie |Elf| (3) Greenie |Elf| ++ Sally |Orc| (2) Nerwen + Sally |Orc|(3) Nerwen + Boro |Orc| (1) Celuien |Orc| ++ Boro |Orc| (3) Wilwa |Orc| + Sally |Orc| (4) Wilwa |Orc| + Lottie |Elf| (4) Izzy |Orc| ++ Lottie |Elf| (6) Lynch: Lottie |Elf| Did not vote: Phantom Night 2 Kill: Izzy |Orc| Seer Dream Orc of Undecided Allegiance chooses role Day 2 Representative votes: Nerwen -> Shasta Rune -> Steve Greenie |Elf| -> Steve (2) [2] Nog |Orc| > Legate Steve -> Legate (2) Lommy -> Nog |Orc| Inzil -> Shasta (2) Wilwa |Orc| -> Foley Legate -> Foley (2) Shasta -> Nerwen [2- same Day] Sally |Orc| -> Nog |Orc| (2) Phantom -> Legate (3) Representatives: (3): Legate (2): Steve, Shasta, Foley, Nog |Orc| Did not vote: Kath, Mira |Seer|, Celuien |Orc|, Foley Lynch votes: Nog |Orc| ++ Wilwa Legate +++ Celuien |Orc| Shasta ++ Sally |Orc| Steve ++ Wilwa |Orc| (4) Foley ++ Sally |Orc| (4) Lynch: Sally |Orc|, Wilwa |Orc| Did not vote: - Other Deaths: Boro |Orc|, Glirdy Night 3 Kill: Nog |Orc| Seer Dream Day 3 Representative votes: Greenie |Elf| ->Inzil Foley -> Greenie |Elf| Kath -> Inzil (2) Legate -> Rune Steve -> Rune (2) [2] Lommy -> Nerwen [2] Rune -> Kath Shasta -> Nerwen (2) <2> [2- same Day] Inzil -> Greenie |Elf| (2) [2- same Day] Representatives: (2) Inzil, Rune, Nerwen, Greenie |Elf| Did not vote: Celuien |Orc|, Mira |Seer|, Nerwen, Phantom Lynch votes: Greenie |Elf| ++ Nerwen /2\ Inzil ++ Greenie |Elf| {3- Same Day) Rune ++ Greenie |Elf| (4) Nerwen ++ Greenie |Elf| (6) [2- same Day] Lynch: Greenie Did not vote: - Other Deaths:Celuien |Orc| Night 4 Kill: Mira |Seer| Seer Dream: - Key: -> = voted as rep ++ = voted to lynch (number of +s=voting power) () = number of votes someone has in the same category <> = a repeat vote (i.e., voting for a rep a second time) /\ = a vote for the same person in any category (i.e., voting for someone as rep, and then lynch-voting that person- does not need to be consecutive) [] = a return/revenge-vote (i.e., someone voting for someone who voted for them in the same category) {} = A return/revenge vote in any category || = roles Italics = the dead
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09-24-2010, 04:57 PM | #758 | |
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Quote:
Do you really want to end the game now, and without even 100% evidence? You seem a bit too certain that Phantom, Nerwen and Shasta are innocents, and even if they're much closer to 'proven' innocents than everyone else, they're not. And anyway, where's the fun that?
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09-24-2010, 04:58 PM | #759 |
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Well, since no-one's around, and I'm tired, I think I may just go to sleep.
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09-24-2010, 05:31 PM | #760 |
Beloved Shadow
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Like I said, busy, so I haven't read anything. But I did at least skim through the Rep votes.
It appears that Shasta needs one more vote to be tied with Nerwen and I. Who hasn't voted besides me?
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