Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Gurthang]

Congratulations, village, you nailed another. Although, I wonder if it wasn't supposed to be that way. Still, a dead werewolf is a dead werewolf.

I am somewhat sad that Nilp was killed, although it was expected. Although, I have a Seer again at least.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Another night without a seer-dream. Oh great.

Sorry. Not sure if it was my fault or just unruly timing, but sorry anyway.

Anyway, I am currently consulting my gifteds about toDay's list. I do agree though that the Evil Wizard needs to be found, and soon.

But we do not need to worry too much yet. We are still 14 (Good guys) against 5 (baddies).

[Lalaith]

Ok, if you want proper sense from me you'll have to wait til (my) tomorrow. It's Saturday night after all...Eurovision, too...cheers!

If we just want wolves, I think we could get Night Four ones by going by the list I made yesterDay. If we want the EW, we'll have to dig deeper. I think most of us could put together a shortlist of possibles.
I'm still worried about you, Roa. Your track record is the best of any of us, you've either attacked, or been attacked by, wolves in the most ostentatious fashion, so that no-one could possibly suspect you.... you see what I mean?

[Caranlondien]

Well, we lynched a wolf yesterDay, at least. But... we need those seer-dreams!

Valier's attack on Roa seems to me like the sort of thing an EW-Roa would tell her to do. So Roa is by no means cleared in my mind.

If Roa turns out to be the EW, I'll be looking at Diamond, merely because Roa is suspicious of her, and I think in general she's a bluffer.

I'm just trying to think ahead here since Gurthang's list toMorrow will be made before we have much of a chance to present arguments; so I'm thinking we should come up with if/then arguments. I'm fighting off a migraine, so this post might not be so coherent...

EDIT: cross-posted with the last few, not that it matters; and making the names bold

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm still worried about you, Roa. Your track record is the best of any of us, you've either attacked, or been attacked by, wolves in the most ostentatious fashion, so that no-one could possibly suspect you.... you see what I mean?

I see exactly what you mean, and it makes me wonder if it's supposed to be that way. Frankly, after the whole Nogrod lynching, I expected to killed. The fact that I live makes me a tad nervous. I think my lorebooks tell me of a time a wolf bearing my name did something similar to a ranger by the name of Zali. It would be quite a kick to see my old trick pulled back on me. I feel so used.

Though I didn't realize my attack on Nogrod was ostentatious...

[Diamond18]

Actually, if you want to know who worries me a bit, it's Lalaith. Why? Because I'd want her if I was the Evil Wizard. I want to analyze her when I have time later tonight.

What do you all think about when Valier was made a wolf? Do you think she was an original or turned? I think Nilp had her as turned on Night 4, didn't he? But this isn't fact. I think it's possible she was an original. She did, after all, vote Loki. Yes, yes, I'm hammering that poor old horse again. If anyone is inclined to listen to me, I want to point out that my early vote for Loki was mostly intended as an expression of displeasure, and I was somewhat surprised (though not shocked) that so many people followd my lead and killed him. So that's why I look to that list as suspicious -- the ol' bandwaggoning trick.

[Roa_Aoife]

Valier's attack on Roa seems to me like the sort of thing an EW-Roa would tell her to do. So Roa is by no means cleared in my mind.

Actually, if I were the EW, I would have created a wolf on wolf scenario- if one gets lynched then the other looks good, no matter what. Naturally, that doesn't make me look much better...

Beside, Valier nearly did get me lynched yesterday, something that I would never want to risk if I were the EW. I like risks, but not risks that draw specific attention onto me when I'm trying to hide.

Edit: Seriously, no one posts for twenty minutes, and just as I post someone else does. This is a conspiracy, I tell you!

[Roa_Aoife]

What do you all think about when Valier was made a wolf? Do you think she was an original or turned? I think Nilp had her as turned on Night 4, didn't he? But this isn't fact.

Her change in behavior makes it look like she was turned Night 3. That's just a theory though.

I think it's possible she was an original. She did, after all, vote Loki.

Eight people voted Loki, not all of them could have been wolves at the time.

If anyone is inclined to listen to me, I want to point out that my early vote for Loki was mostly intended as an expression of displeasure, and I was somewhat surprised (though not shocked) that so many people followd my lead and killed him.

Now now, voting for someone just because you don't like them is never a really good reason. In fact, it's one of the worst reasons givable. But then, did anyone give actually good reasons for lynching Loki?

[Lalaith]

Still here...just about...
Why yes Diamond, I would have thought he would want me.
But he doesn't. *sniff* Mind you, I'd have thought he'd want you, too, even more.

Oh and Valier wouldn't be a Night Four wolf, she was under too much suspicion on Day Three. I think she's a Night Three, or maybe Night Two.

[Diamond18]

I may be counting my nights wrong, Lal. And as for the EW wanting me, the phantom is the only person who wants me. I mean... *cough* the only person I remember saying he'd want me as a wolf. Oh wait, no, SpM said I'd be a likely wolf pick, as well. Eomer said it best, I thought, about me being a bad wolf pick.

Roa, you just refuse to understand. When I quoted LMP's rules about civility to Loki his response boiled down to "I don't care, I'll do whatever I want." I didn't think we needed that kind of behavior. This wasn't "I don't like Loki so I'll kill him." It's "It's early Day 1 and I have no definite wolf candidate, so instead of throwing away my vote completely, I'll vote for the one person who I think is Trouble with a capital T."

And I've said all this a thousand different ways, but you apparently just don't care to understand my viewpoint. So. I can't think of another way to say it. *shrug*

And of course all 8 could not be wolves. But that's why a wolf or two would find it easy to hide in such a bandwagon.

[mormegil]

Well I want to reiterate two things I've said in the past. Everybody make sure to 'wake up' so you don't miss the summons to be a seer (Read: Hit the Refresh button on occasion).

Valier seems to have been the wolf convert on the 3rd night as I fully suspected and cued in on her strange behavior. I'm glad to see her lynched thought essentially another night was wasted due to a lack of a seer. We have two chances as night of finding the EW and we are only using one consistently.

Gurthang any idea how long until you produce your 'list of doom'?

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Gurthang any idea how long until you produce your 'list of doom'?

I don't know. I would like to get a response from my Seer and my Hunter. Is there anyone who needs to vote extremely early?

I also want to know what people think about Azaelia. Her distinct non-list vote could be one of two things.

1. She's an innocent who really didn't suspect anyone on the list.

2. She's a wolf/EW hoping we'll think the above.

I don't know how many times yesterday people said that they thought Diamond and Roa were innocent because they didn't agree with the plan. Azaelia might have taken that as a green light that that would make her appear innocent.

[mormegil]

Currently I'm a bit stumped, after Valier I'm not sure who to think about. I kind of reverted to tunnel vision on her and tried to keep an open mind but what I want to do is give my general impressions on people; this is going to be more feeling based and analytical.

Diamond--Talkative but Roa brought up good points about her and I think that she would be a good wolf choice, as far as EW goes I doubt it, she would be a fine EW but I see wolfishness in her behavior not EWness.

Caranlondien--I feel that she is suspcious yet quietly so. She doesn't over react to things and keeps cool. I don't think she should be faulted for that but the things that concerns me the most is her level of 'participation'. She's seems very noncommital but posts a lot so as to appear to be active and involved.

Roa Aoife--I can see why there is some suspicion swirling around her and the question needs to be asked--Is Valier the type to attempt a bold bluff? I'm not convinced of that she would. Has had some good analysis of other villagers.

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant--She's cunning to say the least. I don't believe her guilty though, but admittedly she seems less insightful than normal with the exclusion of yesterday.

Kath--Always guilty no matter what (Read: Past experience) so she should die. But seriously she's not contributing as much as normal and that always gets me worried but I will refrain from any judgement on this and ask an independent third party to analyze her.

Lommy--I can envision her as guilty, but then again would Lommy have defended Valier is Lommy is guilty? She's talkative but not over analytical. Currently she'd go in the 'uncertain but watching pile'.

Glirdan--Far too little talk and I always fear that this could be a diversionary tactic. Of course he wouldn't be a wolf because he's never around...but then wouldn't that be just perfect?

Sleepy Ranger--Smae as Glirdan

Kitanna--Has had me extremely worried until yesterday. That could mean that she's had more time or that she was a night 4 wolf convert and is now putting on a good show of being innocent.

Alcarillo--He keeps coming back to my mind as guilty. I know many have written off the over reaction and role playing and think little of it but I disagree and think him a good initial EW pick for wolf but turned out to be far too over reactionary. He's one of my prime suspects today.

Oddwen--Her behavior is similar to Sleepy and Glirdan but she's been a bit more odd when she is present than the others. Still not too much to go on.

Feanor--I always think she is guilty too, just like Kath. She's nigh impossible to ever fully understand what she is thinking and is so mauderous that I have difficulty assessing her.

Zali--If a wolf a careless wolf, if innocent a careless innocent.

Jenny Hallu--My poor unwed daughter. I have the feeling that she could be an excellent wolf and good EW another 'uncertain pile'

Lalaith--Always cool and collected. Had some rule questions which always make me wonder if it's an attempt to throw us of her scent. Helpful but good at deception.

Eonwe--See Sleepy and Glirdan for an explination.

Eomer--Another that is always guilty in my mind (See: Fea and Kath) so I cannot do a objective analysis. I had some legitimate concerns about him and used them earlier but it was part of my ruse to get reaction. His responses to that made me feel him innocent.

There are 4 or 5 from whom I'd like to hear more (and others less ). I feel that we are getting to that stage when everybody need to be less quiet and give a couple of posts a day and ensure that you vote too.

[Gurthang]

Okay, I have to go. I may be gone for some time. Here is the 'List of Doom' ( ) for toDay.

Alcarillo
Azaelia
Feanor
Kitanna

Analyze them, and also give thought to who you would like to get a shot at tomorrow. Someone asked about them, and yes I have given thought to our quieter villagers, but I do not know what to do about them... yet. They will be dealt with, I can assure you.

I will be here for only fragments for the rest of the Day. I will try to answer questions and analyze the candidates as best I can.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Morm... what does mauderous mean?

And I totally agree about tunnel vision and not know what to do next, exactly. This hasn't been the best game for me and I'm at a bit of a loss.

I kind of don't blame you if you kill me (I see I'm on the hit list for the day)... but it's a bad idea. I'm innocent and quite frankly astounded I haven't been dreamt of, but as a village, we can't afford to make any mistakes.

[mormegil]

It's a made up word with the root from maunder.

Gurthang it's a good list and I would tend to choose Alcarillo who I will not analyze as I've been keeping tabs on him but perhaps I will look at Fea or Zali as Kitanna doesn't strike me as guilty currently.

[Oddwen]

I didn't mean to miss yesterday. I thought I had a good couple of hours after work, and then *boom!* it's a Night!

Kudos to Gurthang - nice to see you.

The current list of Dooooom -

I'm most inclined to think that Zali is innocent. I think most of the suspicion around her is due to her early vote for Eomer two days ago, which seemed explained sufficiently to me.

The pleading yesterday was a bit much though.

Originally Posted by Morm

She's nigh impossible to ever fully understand what she is thinking and is so mauderous that I have difficulty assessing her.

Originally Posted by Morm

It's a made up word with the root from maunder.

Do you really like that word, or is it a broad hint?

Meh. I'm going to analize.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Oddwen

Do you really like that word, or is it a broad hint?

I don't quite follow how this could be a hint but I actual enjoy the word and I believe it is fitting of Fea.

[Eonwe]

Originally Posted by Morm

Eonwe--See Sleepy and Glirdan for an explination.

Originally Posted by Morm

Glirdan--Far too little talk and I always fear that this could be a diversionary tactic. Of course he wouldn't be a wolf because he's never around...but then wouldn't that be just perfect?

Yeah, about that. A surprise visit from the Grandparents has somewhat certailed my Werewolfing activities.

However, I am doing my best to struggle through the thread, and keep abreast of the action.

Speaking of which, Gurthang the Good Wizard? This makes for alot more analazatoin work.

Which I'd best be doing.

P.S. RIP Nilp

[Roa_Aoife]

Hm, interesting list....

As I said before, Alcarillo and Zali don't look particularly suspicious to me. The only cases against them so far seem kind of weak. Kitanna's case yesterday (courtesy Diamond, who I'm not totally inclined to trust at the moment) doesn't make her look terribly suspicious either. As for Fea- I just don't get her. She still hasn't answered me about her continual votes for me. I don't know if she has failed to notice, or if she's just trying to dodge the question, but it's confusing. I'd like someone else to analyze to analyze her, as I don't trust myself to be wholly objective.

[mormegil]

Post 104

Basically, she says that it's not fair that we single people as as being either unlikely or likely to be a gifted/wolf pick and she might be more likely because the GW might want an unlikely pick. It's a fairly innocuous first post.

Post 113

Clarification on time zones and how much time she has left.

Post 196

Okay this post really stands out to me as opposed to the previous posts. Here she states categorically that finding the EW is the most important. Then states that Loki is acting a bit odd but she doesn't think he's the EW. Goes on to give herself an escape route for her 'band wagon' vote saying that she doesn't like band wagons but thinks that Loki is guilty herself. This is the first of multiple escape routes that she leaves herself. Also if you don't think he's the EW but you think it most important to find the EW why not give us your idea of who the EW is?

Post 227

Another fairly odd post. Laments her decision to vote Loki as hers was the deciding vote. I'm never keen on people being overly sad about their vote choice, if you believe him guilty you believe him guilty. Then she talks about SpM being chosen to be killed. This could be taken either way so I'll leave it alone.

Post 349

Again apologizes for voting on the band wagon and gives her explination that her main suspects coincide with the top lynch candidate. She thinks Alcarillo's over defensiveness is proof that he's innocent because she acts the same way when innocent. Then give a great line of asking forgiveness of voting for Nogrod if he's innocent.

Post 382

Has some in character bemoaning of the phantom's death but then turns around and now she suspects Alcarillo of his in character over reaction. In her cross post comment she is beginning to suspect Eomer as well. It seems that she is either extremely easily influenced or intentionally influenced because as a wolf it's easier to blend in with the current theory than invent you own. She's beginning to look bad to me at this point.

Post 387

This is the notorious post that has already been analyzed ad nauseum and in real time this was the one that made me suspect her the most and now it only fortifies my feeling. Please reread and notice the escape route given and apology. It is note worthy to remember that Nilp found this extremely odd as well in this post.

Post 698

She immediately informs us that this will be a defense and states that "This goes back a bit, I know, but I thought I ought to set up a defence." After that she goes on to say that Alcarillo's in character stuff wasn't helpful, which I agree, but I also think Zali's has been a bit much and unhelpful also. I also get the impression that she feels a lot of pressure and is worried about things...both good signs of being a wolf.

Post 699

Post immediately after the last and states that she's innocent. Goes on to describe why she wouldn't be the worst lynch case but we could do better.

Post 700

A triple post telling us to not waste our votes on her because she is not the EW and it has to be obvious that she isn't. I would agree on that point but I don't agree that she's not a wolf.

Post 711

Quotes Caran quoting me and defends herself on the charge of voting for the top candidate. She says she learned that lesson but did it because she found them suspicious. She changes her pattern of voting and votes for Alcarillo against the 'list of doom' and thinks that we shouldn't forget him. I think this is a good thing too and could speak to her favor in that she has legitimate concerns over him and wants us to remember him or that she wants to appear such. I cannot determine how it's meant but good advice either way.

That's all but I think her post analysis paints a decent picture that she could be guilty, but there are a couple of points upon which she seems to be innocent.

This takes a long time. I have no idea how I will do this for somebody who posts more frequently.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

As for Fea- I just don't get her. She still hasn't answered me about her continual votes for me. I don't know if she has failed to notice, or if she's just trying to dodge the question, but it's confusing.

Dodging artfully, as it were. I have my reasons for my votes and accusations, and they are good enough as far as reasons go, but perhaps it would be better for me to have gone the way of Lhuna and pulled out to accomodate life. Quite frankly, I'd rather leave my reasons for accusing and voting down to something as simple as that I was forced to vote quickly and without as much deliberation as I'd have liked at every occasion. I had to choose somebody and my day one suspicion of a Loki wolf chosen by a Roa wizard had not abated.

Right now I have no idea at all for whom to vote. If I have enough people ask me, heck, I'll vote for myself to make life easier all the way around.

[Caranlondien]

A good list on Gurthang's part. Good because I can see any of the choices being wolves, but also bad because I can see any of the choices being wolves. Hey, maybe they're all wolves!

Due to a nasty headache, I'm a bit out of it right now, and shall be heading off to sleep. My initial thoughts concerning the members of The List:

Alcarillo - I haven't found him that suspicious so far, but he came under a great deal of suspicion and then seemed to be forgotten, so I'd see him as a good recent werewolf choice.

Azaelia - She's been on my radar (and everyone else's, for the most part) for a while now. Here's something that struck me, too:

Originally Posted by mormegil

Also if you don't think he's the EW but you think it most important to find the EW why not give us your idea of who the EW is?

Feanor - I have nothing in my lorebooks on Feanor, and I don't have much of a gut feeling about her, so I'll have to go back and look at her posts when I wake up.

Kitanna - She was looking wolvish before, but yesterDay's posts from her have placated me. She seems genuine. Of course, she may have been turned last Night. Especially since she seemed, like Alcarillo, to have gotten through the period of intense suspicion early on.

I'd also like us to take a good look at morm. He's the sort who manages to post substantial arguments that influence the village and at the same time fly under the radar. Just thinking ahead

[Gurthang]

Fea, your continual confession of not having the time to be the Evil Wizard makes me nervous. It seems to be slightly overstated. Could be a valid reason, but I am nervous none the less. That said, I doubt I will vote for you, but I've heard others mention your name, and thought I'd see how the votes play out with you in the mix. Oh, and only vote for yourself if you're a wolf or the EW, okay? (Yeah, like that'll work. )

I agree with morm about Azaelia. I will likely vote for her toDay. She seems overly eager to defend herself against what people might accuse her of. Her precautionary defensiveness, if you will. I also think that her 'throw away vote' from yesterday was too blatant to be an innocent defiance. It really looks like she's trying to do something that a wolf just would not do, and therefore look innocent. I'll read through her posts before voting.

I personally have no suspicion of Kitanna. I saw her name pop up a few times. I'll probably also glance at her posts before voting.

Alcarillo; I was suspicious of him a couple days ago, and I still am slightly, but I have people above him on my suspect list.

Anyway, I'll see how it all plays out. I probably won't vote until close to the deadline. But now I need to sleep. Be back in the morning.

[Kitanna]

I don't have as much time as I did yesterday to go over the posts of the two on Gurthang's list. (excluding myself and Zali, since I already did her) but I will say I feel less suspicious of Zali today. After her defense of herself not being the EW, I think she may have been truthful about that. Her posts have been helpful, but few and far between and she has said she has various time issues which causes me to believe she is too busy to be the EW. She could still be a wolf, but I'm not as confindent as I was the other day about her being the EW.

As for Fea, well, I'll have to read over her posts before Day ends, hopefully I'll get the chance.

And Alcarillo, well I have suspicions of him, but I don't know if it's enough for me to vote for him.

[Kitanna]

Ok I lied, I decided I couldn't sleep until I at least started to look at Fea and Alcarillo:
DAY ONE
In Alcarillo's first two posts the only real help he gave outside of in character comments was:

Alcarillo=
It would be much harder on us if we lynch the Good Wizard (no new gifteds, for one thing), so I would focus primarily on hunting down the Evil Wizard to stop the cursings.

He comments on Gurthang's Day one plan of finding one or both wizards. Up until this point Alcarillo has kept his comments in character.

Fea=
And there are some that you will never understand regardless of anything pertaining to anything else. Mormegil, for instance: if he's a wolf, we're screwed; we'll never know... it would be mere whim that would ever have us catch the dear.

See what I mean? If you kill the players that you are completely uncertain that you'll ever be able to nail down in any situation, you'll simplify your own life.

I feel Fea falls into her own catergory of villagers you'll never really know.

Alcarillo=
Well, I agree with my wife when she says she thinks some of these people would be chosen as Gifteds. If I were the GW, I would choose some of these villagers to be Gifteds, because they tend to last a while into the game, whether by being clever or by flying under the radar. True that that's also great when playing a wolf, but I wouldn't lynch these folks yet (especially not myself!).

Let's try to root out the EW first before he focus on the wolves. I thought I'd like to remind people of these criteria Feanor came up with:

Alcarillo just sort of jumps on what others have brought up before him. It's easy to hide behind innocents by latching onto their ideas. But given the fact this was posted on Day One, I can't really say how I feel about Alcarillo doing this.

Alcarillo=
As to whom I am suspicious of, I have to say the Saucepan Man. He's been making all of these lists about potential werewolves. Maybe he's tryin' to throw us off the track of the EW. I dunno. And look at that EW criteria above! The Saucepan Man is a non-student, a very experienced player (the sort who would volunteer for a job as the wizard), and lives in a nice time-zone. Couldn't he be the EW?

That Night SpM turned up dead. This attack from Alcarillo worries me. It makes me doubt his guilt since SpM was killed. I'm not so sure I feel EW Alcarillo would be so bold.

DAY TWO

Alcarillo=
Whatever people would say, there'd certainly be plenty of discussion about me. Why on earth would I want this attention?! You people know my ancestors' methods of survival: laying low, keeping quiet. This doesn't fit with me killing Saucie. I'm not a werewolf, and if I were, I wouldn't be as dumb as killing Saucie.

I may be mistaken (19 pages, so much confusion) but Alcarillo has been laying low for a while...

*pounds face into desk* My brain and eyes hurt, so I'm really going to go off to bed, since I stopped paying attention to what I was writing and while back. I'll just have to come back and finish this later.

[Diamond18]

Earlier I said I intended to analyze Lalaith tonight, but now I wonder if I'd just be wasting my time since she is not on the List of Doom™ and will not be a lynch candidate toDay.

And yes, this is somewhat motivated by this:

Roa_Aoife 50
Diamond18 50
Valier 49
Lalaith 45

Fourth top poster of the game, there. The thing that worries me is that I still feel like she's been under the radar -- my radar anyway, since I look at that in surprise and can say it doesn't feel like I've read 45 Lalaith posts. I can only remember her Day 1 vote off the top of my head. Just don't forget about her....

So, as to who is on the list:

Alcarillo -- Maybe I'll do one, but I'm not thinking there's really all that much to analyze.

Azaelia -- Has been analyzed by me and Morm (and possibly others?) so I feel she has been sufficiently analyzed for the time being.

Feanor -- Mmm... 30 posts. If I do an analysis I will have to fortify myself with something unhealthy to eat or drink.

Kitanna -- I already analyzed her, and all her posts since my analysis have only served to lessen my suspicion. Either she's really, really devastatingly good at being a wolf, or she's innocent. Or she was just turned.

At any rate, it looks to me like I'll be analyzing Fea. Wish me luck.

[mormegil]

I'm not certain how much time I'll have until the dead line comes so I will vote with my gut. I analyzed Zali and think her likely to be guilty. Fea could very well be guilty. Kitanna I'm fairly convinced is currently innocent. But Alcarillo has been nagging me for a while now and I will go for him.

++Alcarillo

[Lalaith]

My problem with the list is that there's no-one on it apart from Fea that I think could be the EW.
Well, still lots of time to discuss and vote later...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Caran

Valier's attack on Roa seems to me like the sort of thing an EW-Roa would tell her to do. So Roa is by no means cleared in my mind.

That's something I was thinking about, too. About it being too risky for Roa, that might be true, but if Roa was the EW and we had tried to lynch her, the GW couldn't have challenged her right away, she would probably have got 5 Wolves the next Day which is a pretty good pack. Besides, yesterDay there were four Wolves. If the Wolves knew the EW's identity (I'm somewhat doubtful about that, though) there would have been three Wolf votes for saving Roa.

I'm still wary of Caran, too. She seems unnaturally careful with her statements.

I agree with Lalaith that the only EWish person on toDays Death List is Fea. It, however, doesn't mean that we shouldn't analyse everyone on or off the List if we just have time.

More later.


ps. Sorry for this, but I can't resist...

Originally Posted by Lalaith

It's Saturday night after all...Eurovision, too...cheers!

Hehe.

[Diamond18]

Fea Fea Bo-Bea Bonana-Fana-Fo-Fea

#22

Checking in, has nothing further to say.

#79

Nothing much screams evil about this post... obviously I’m not going to recap it, you have the link. But she talks about plans for lynching and wizard hunting.

#83

Here she continues the same line of thought, clarifying it. Seems to think it’ll get her lynched, which I find somewhat odd, actually, since it’s no more controversial than any other plan I’ve seen discussed.

#85

More on the same lines.

#87

Ditto.

#88

Ditto.

#96

Talks a bit about the possibilities of who could and could not be the wizard, based on RL. Doesn’t give any names, but reminds us about students and the like who won’t have time to be wizards. This could be construed as her directing wizard suspicion away from herself, as at that point she had been relatively quiet and cited RL reasons for not participating as much early on. Or, she could just be stating a perfectly reasonable theory. It’s rather hard to say, but I am leaning toward the latter, just because I haven’t seen much else that can be called wolfish or wizardly from her.

#101

Banter.

#135

Somewhat wearied sounding response to Eomer about wizards... I found it a bit odd since at this point at least she has’t come up with the most stupendous plan for finding wizards -- it does seem like she’s mostly talked about what we “should” be doing without much follow through.

#141

Short reply about the phantom....

#170

A vote for Loki with interesting reasons... but, I can’t say I fault them. So this isn’t pinging me as particularly wolfish, more as her honestly having “nobody better to attack right now.” Unless she’s just copying my reason for voting, but, haha, I think I flatter myself in that respect.

#226

Mainly replies to people, without a specific theme... but she does again stress the need to find the Evil Wizard. Not raising any of my suspicions, which almost makes me want to kick myself, since I’m generally paranoid and not finding someone suspicious is just wrong. This is reverse suspicion psychology, by the way -- I can’t find anything suspicious about these comments ergo I find them suspicious. Ha.

#230

Banter.

#282

More talking about the EW -- gee, and Morm thought Eomer was the one obsessed -- and denies that she meant to discount herself when she talked about the wizard not being a student. This is first post that she really talks about people she’s suspicious of. She votes Roa, citing the fact that she’s fascinated by Roa’s earlier defense of Loki and suspicion about her reasons. (Roa, of course, continues to not be able to understand this, as she cannot understand anything I say that has anything to do with Loki, either.)

#285

Defends her reasoning to Lommy.

#286

Another response, much the same, to Sleepy.

#384

Kind of a Zali-esque post, this one....

#435

Kind of a rushed post... so really, what can I say about it, besides that it feels rushed?

#442

Arrgh... is it Fea’s posts or the fact that it’s 3:30 in the morning that’s making it hard for me to form an opinion on them either way? This one is a lot of responses, more explaining of the usual things.

#445

Response to me about her votes... I get the reasoning, so....

#455

Nothing much to comment on here, either. This is getting seriously redundant, isn’t it? Each individual posts doesn’t ping anything in me, but when I look up at my analysis and see non-conclusion after non-conclusion, I get worried. Fea is... slippery.

#459

Response to Jenny, denies that banter held anything serious.

#490

A vote for Roa, same reasons as previous day.

#555

More talk about the EW and how much we need to find him, and makes a rather odd comment about the EW protecting the GW.

#564

Well, she said she had a mind numbing headache that was blocking all rational thought, so.... She keeps promising an evaluation, have we ever gotten it? I don’t think so.

#626

I have to admit, this continued voting for Roa does seem a bit odd, now that it’s the third time in a row. I can see her reasoning for finding Roa suspicious, but that she holds onto it day after day, while there are a lot of other suspicious characters running around, does feel off.

#659

Gives thoughts on Eomer and morm. But mostly just talks about her RL situation and such.

Question: Does Fea usually dwell so much on her RL? Nearly every post contains references to what she’s doing, did, and will be doing in RL. If this is usual for Fea, okay, but if not, I find it somewhat odd that when she’s rushed for time she spends much of her posts telling us how little time she has.

#719

Short post, nothing much to say about it. (What a surprise, eh?)

#734

Fea seems very forgiving about being killed. This could speak well for her innocence.

#741

Alright, last post, I think I’ll just skip ahead to my final summary:

In summary: Fea could be one of two things:

(A) Innocent, and just as she has said countless times, with a very active RL and not having enough time to spend on analysis and the like. She’s been helpful when she can, and there’s nothing particularly fishy in her banter.

(B) She’s wonderfully, wickedly, stupendously evil and duplicitous. She’s slippery as an eel, and every spare line is carefully calculated, even the most innocuous of banter. She has all the time in the world, and all this about headaches is a ruse, she’s laughing her socks off at all of us right now. Like this: Bwahahahahahaha!


So, what does Diamond believe? I’m leaning (A). Honestly, if Fea is as preternaturally wicked as option (B) I feel like laying down and letting her maul me to death. Right now.

Oh, and as a “bonus” for all you eager beavers out there, I can already tell you everything that Roa will say about this post. It’ll be a mix of “nonsense,” “clutter,” “in essence, saying nothing,” and “well, duh.”

That’s three villager profiles for the price of one, my friends!

And I’m so tired I’m past being tired, so I may hang around a little longer before passing out. Or not.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

My problem with the list is that there's no-one on it apart from Fea that I think could be the EW.

I've been meaning to ask this, but is there any specific reason why the list has to be limited to only 4 people? There are still 19 living people, so I personally think the option pool could be at least slightly larger without giving away too much about who's Gifted or not.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm not sure why Alcarillo's suspicions of Sauce combined with the fact that Sauce voted for him and the next Day Sauce was dead make Alcarillo look bad. At that point we didn't have a Seer, so if Alcarillo is a Wolf, he couldn't be afraid that a Seerish Sauce would have dreamed of him. As to posting in character, that's what many of us have done here. (Oh dreadful day, my husband is dead! How shall I manage with my children all by myself! )

But I'll go his posts through myself (no offense to those who have analysed him already).



#17 - Says that even though Cailín might have raised Eomer to be a lady-killer, he did not raise his son to be a murderer. He will stand by my family. Says the whole family of morm's "reeks of werewolvery". Doesn't like the fact that Diamond playfully predicted that Cailín will get lynched. Every defence and suspicion here is based on the relationships in the Village although if he's a Wolf 1) what would be a better way to smoothen reactins than to disguise them as family banter, or 2) he might not have been a Wolf yet

#33 - Di explains her prediction of Cailín and Alcarillo is comforted since someone approves his son (Eomer). He isn't as pleased with morm and Celuien. Says that he and Cailín do not allow black magic in their household. Says that lynching the GW (which isn't possible since he can't die by lynching) would make our situation harder and he'd prefer hunting the EW instead. Gurthang said that he'd like to lynch people who would not be obvious Seer choices, and he names Naria, Alcarillo, Azaelia, Lommy and Lalaith. Alcarillo's reaction was: "You want to lynch me?! I have to be careful of what I say from now on..."

Okay, this looks odd. Gurthang had five peope on his list and considering that, Alcarillo's reaction was pretty strong.

#124 - Says that if he were the GW, he would have chosen Azaelia, Oddwen, Roa, Diamond or Gurthang as Gifteds because they tend to last long "whether by being clever or by flying under the radar". He also says: "True that that's also great when playing a wolf, but I wouldn't lynch these folks yet (especially not myself!)." Reminds everyone about Fea's suggestion that the EW is someone who has enough time for it, so s/he's not probably a student.

Again, defence for himself only for appearing on a list with a bunch of other players.

#144 - Defends himself, family banter, suspects Sauce because of his lists of potential Wolves and because he fits in the criteria that Fea gave. "Couldn't he be the EW?" ~Alc

Uh, the dreaded polling... At least he gave some of his thoughts, but they seem to be based more on others' opinions than his own.

#159 - Votes for Sauce because of his "crazy theory ".

Well, this look a bit interesting. Why would he call his theory crazy and give a smiley? Perhaps he did know that it was likely be wrong and his vote wouldn't tell much. Still, this was in an early stage of voting, so his vote had value in it. Perhaps it was a way to clear oneself if we for some reason had lynched Sauce and found him innocent.

#222 - says that it looks like that he has some defending to do. And that's what he does. Almost the whole post. He also asks quiestions why he would have killed Sauce, and the post ends with village banter.

#353 - says that Zali wouldn't surely want to lynch a future family member. Agrees with Eomer and votes for Nogrod.

#371 - Laments phantom's death.

#394 - Asks people to slow down and says that the last post was just roleplaying. Tries to explain his defence after Sauce's death.

#622 - Says the GW knows much more than us, finds Roa's "rebellious behaviour" unsettling and votes for her.


Okay, I see that he really is defensive, and on that basis he looks somewhat suspicious right now.

[Diamond18]

If I obey the list, my vote toDay will be either given to Azaelia or Alcarillo. Problem is, I do not think that either of these people is the Evil Wizard... just possibly wolves. And are we, or are we not, looking for the Evil Wizard?

[Lalaith]

Diamond, I have to say that of all Fea's posts, it's 79 that troubles me the most. She agrees with Lommy that we shouldn't hunt for wolves on the basis that the EW might want them.
Now I disagree with this, it was how I for one homed in on Valier. And, my dear Diamond, you obviously disagree too because it's the basis for your earlier suspicion of me.
But even more worryingly, she wants to hunt out the GW because he's meant do die anyway - before he's had a chance to give us any gifteds. What's that all about?
Now this could just be Fea in maverick mode. There's part of me that wants to give her the benefit of the doubt, partly because like you I find her 734 post rather innocent. But there's another part of me that wonders whether I shouldn't just go for it.

I was also amazed by my status as fourth poster. (Btw, how do you do that, Diamond, is there a forum tool that gives individual post counts within a thread or have you manually counted us all?) I didn't think I'd been posting any more than I usually do. I can only surmise that many people have been posting considerably less. These include, Eomer, Fea, Lommy, Spawn and Jenny. Nearly all of whom would figure on my list of EW possibles. Hmmm....

Spawn, I'm swayed by your Alcarillo analysis and will have a look at him myself. I need to try to place him in the wolf creation programme. At the moment, I think we are looking at an original/Night Two wolf, two Night Four wolves and a Night Five (ie last night) wolf.

[Thinlómien]

I think I could scream! Scream. Yes, that is the word. I'm sorry, honourable Gurthang, but I think your list is h-o-r-r-i-b-l-e. I think we should get the EW, and soon. Our chances to get a wolf every day to stop them from increasing are minimal. We really should focus on the EW.

Of those on your list, the only one I really find suspicious is Alcarillo, and in my opinion he's no way the EW.

The only person on the list I think could be the EW is Fea. I'm not particularly suspicious of her, but I think I must vote her in order to obey the GW and concentrate on the EW-hunting which is the thing I find most important right now. I just fear I will be contributing to the death of an innocent person I don't even really suspect.

The person I feel could be the EW is Roa. Choosing Noggie as a wolf would clearly point at that direction, as I've said before. Besides, Wolfier's attack on her makes her suspicious.

Besides, I don't find this a sound argument at all:

Originally Posted by Roa

Beside, Valier nearly did get me lynched yesterday, something that I would never want to risk if I were the EW. I like risks, but not risks that draw specific attention onto me when I'm trying to hide.

1. I don't think it was by any way Valier's doing that you nearly got lynched yesterday. There was enough suspicion on you from other people to get youy lynched and I think no one was converted to suspect you by Valier. 2. Hmm... So you say. But are we discarding the possibility that Wolfier was not instructed by the EW-Roa to attack her? Maybe Valier made it up by herself.

Ill be back before lynchline.

Originally Posted by spawn

ps. Sorry for this, but I can't resist...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalaith
It's Saturday night after all...Eurovision, too...cheers!
Hehe. : cool : ; ) : D

(See my sig below...)

edit: xed with Oddwen

[Oddwen]

Ergh...reading through, reading other analysises and sleeping on it has given me pretty much this. I don't think Zali is evil, I'm leaning toward Kitanna being innocent.
That leaves Alc and Fea (brilliant deduction!).

Alc, I think, is acting weird for Alc
Fea is acting pretty normal for Fea

I'm going to have to vote in about twenty minutes. I'm off to read again.

edit: x-ed with Lommy

[Lalaith]

Going by the analysis I did yesterday, likely Night Four wolves are: Caran, Jenny, Kath and Kitanna, possibly Fea.
Alc and Zali are very unlikely night four wolves. They could have been converted last night, I suppose, and I think Alc might be an original wolf.

As for the EW - he has selected Naria, Nogrod and Valier for his wolves. Hmm....these are all players I believe who entered the game via the Junior branch. Does that give us any clues to his/her identity?

[Oddwen]

Have to leave for the Day soon. I'm going to put my vote in for

++FEANOR

Of the four doooooom'd, I'm most inclined to think she's evil.

Oh, and

Originally Posted by Morm

I don't quite follow how this could be a hint

Fea's maundering...you like the word, you're the maundering mage, therefore Fea = You, if you're evil she is too...that's what I was thinking.

Good luck all.

[JennyHallu]

I'm checking in...but hubby's sick so I'll be checking out pretty quickly. I tend to agree with the people who think this is a horrendous list for finding an EW...none of these people strike me as that pro-active. Except for Fea, but I don't think she'd make that kind of commitment: I believe her when she says she's over-busy.

And as for the rest:

I know little about Alcarillo. But my initial reaction would be to doubt any wolvishness from him. These suspicions came up first after SPM's death: The deaths, however, are chosen by vote, from wolves who I firmly believe do not know eachother. I might be wrong, but why would the EW tell them who eachother are? As it is, the death of a wolf reveals no tracks to any other, and I think that's why we as a village seem so aimless. We keep looking for the usual relationships and signs, and it makes me so frustrated that I want to pound on my computer screen (bad idea) and scream THE USUAL SIGNS AREN'T THERE!!!! And if the kills are chosen by vote, then Alcarillo's daytime activities with SPM likely have no connection to his nighttime activity. Besides, if I were a wolf, the last thing I would do is kill someone associated with me, and I think Alcarillo is at least that savvy.

Zali looks awful in analysis. I don't like how she always gives herself an out, and is so apologetic. BUT: If she is a wolf, this could be a further argument for my belief that the wolves do not know eachother: If they did, why would she apologize to the village for her sacrifice of Nogrod? She'd know she was going to look good for it in the morning. I will most likely vote Zali.

And finally, I most certainly do not excuse Kitanna from my suspect list because of her sudden helpfulness yesterday. Yes, she went from the same behavior that's got us so worked up about Zali (non-commital apologetics) to long analytical posts, but what did she actually say? I remember no firm conclusions, no flat-out accusations or umm...anti-accusations? Just "well, he could be a wolf, or she could be a wolf..." Kitanna, my dear, excepting Gurthang, any of us could be a wolf. And I don't like that this analysis mode was such a sudden change, and no one else picked up on that. Sudden changes are what I most fear in this game.

So my vote will most likely be Zali, but I am definitely considering Kitanna. Fea really feels innocent to me, and Alc...that's just too obvious, and I think highly unlikely.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

I've been meaning to ask this, but is there any specific reason why the list has to be limited to only 4 people? There are still 19 living people, so I personally think the option pool could be at least slightly larger without giving away too much about who's Gifted or not.

Well, first day we try it, there's 22 people. So I put four on the list. At that time there were four wolves, so let's say we had two on the list. And me as the Good Wizard. That narrows the EW's "possibly gifted" list to 14 people, since he knows the two innocents on the list won't be gifted and he knows all four of his wolves and me.

Two die at night, another is gifted. Total 19 people left. Still four wolves, this time two gifteds. Four listees, let's say I'm lucky and we have two wolves again (unlikely). That's still runs 7 people off the list, so it's down to 11 already. Plus, there were two people on yesterday's list who the EW knows aren't gifted. One might have been a wolf, but that's still down to 10.

And that's a high estimate. It might be as low as 7. (If Valier was the only wolf on yesterday's list and no wolves are on toDay's list.) Assuming I'll have anyone new on the list tomorrow, that could be down to 4, counting two wolf kills toNight, and three gifteds in that stack.

Basically, four is pushing it. It narrows down the field of possible gifteds too quickly for the EW. If we had five on the lists, he would have great odds changing/killing a gifted toNight.

Originally Posted by Diamond18

If I obey the list, my vote toDay will be either given to Azaelia or Alcarillo. Problem is, I do not think that either of these people is the Evil Wizard... just possibly wolves. And are we, or are we not, looking for the Evil Wizard?

Truthfully, no. I have realized that, although you could find him by lynching, it is unlikely. There are far more wolves, so I actually think you should try to keep their numbers down. If you find the EW in the process, well that would be the best luck ever.

Originally Posted by Jenny

Kitanna, my dear, excepting Gurthang, any of us could be a wolf. And I don't like that this analysis mode was such a sudden change, and no one else picked up on that. Sudden changes are what I most fear in this game.

I noticed it too. I've been busy all Day so far, but I'm going to get to reading everything by all four before the deadline.

But now, again, I have to leave... this time for church. Later.