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09-11-2009, 02:35 PM | #681 |
Laconic Loreman
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The good news is I've divided the remaining players into 2 groups based on how they've interacted with eachother and the wolf Inzil.
Pitch Greenie Nilp Pitch and Greenie were both very defensive of Inzil, and Nilp is pretty much saying he will not vote for Greenie or Pitch. Plus Inzil had very little interaction between the 3 of them. Brinn Nienna Sally Brinn and Nienna went after and sealed Inzil's fate and Inzil jokingly suspected them, and sally is just thrown in there because I really have no clue. So far, I'm thinking the first group are more likely Inzil's partners, the way the night guard votes have spread out and no one clearly following someone, I think the wolves were trying to separate themselves as much as possible. *However, sally and Nilp are interchangeable in my opinion. Just thought I'd throw out what I'm currently thinking, now back to Pitch.
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09-11-2009, 02:35 PM | #682 |
Scion of The Faithful
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Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
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Reasonable doubt about their Wolvishness. I don't have enough suspicion of them to vote for them over other people. That list is willing to change, though, depending on my analyses. For example, I'm unwilling to vote for McCaber now (duh); Sally, Nienna or Brinn are the ones I'm most likely to vote. Still reading and analysing a lot, though, cos I have to be sure.
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09-11-2009, 02:37 PM | #683 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Greenie:
36: Thinks there would be more to loose than gain if the seer revealed. Worried about Mnemo 39: Asks Nilp why he voted for himself 43: Says that she is not someone who one would want to get on bad terms with 95: Suspicious of Nog for his suspicion of Lommy 99: Would rather vote for someone with suspicion than a random vote or a vote for someone not contributing 102: Doesn’t like Day One’s, defends her mid-day chats 120: Is feeling ok about Mnemo now and defends herself, is still suspicious of Nog 138: Lynch votes Nog and guards me but mentions that she isn’t throwing away her guard vote completely… this is odd. 218: Doesn’t think the wolves would give up their kill so will probably vote Legate. 290: Mentions some possibilities for if Legate is innocent and if she doesn’t survive… votes to lynch Legate and guard Nog because he is her second top suspect and if he is innocent he is valuable. 410: Thinks that even though we can’t be certain of Nog’s guilt we should still pay attention to him … wolf trying to get another easy lynch??, then she doesn’t like Nerwen and her vote for Zil… it looks like she could be trying to get the heat off of her mate. 411: List: Creepy: Nerwen, Nog, Sally; No Idea: Brinn, Zil, McCaber, Pitchwife, Wilwa; Cuddly: Boro, Hakon, Nienna, Nilp 419: Asking who others want to lynch 422: Shies away from looking at Zil and wants to look at Boro instead 436: Doesn’t want to join the bandwagon so lynch votes for Sally instead 437: Guards Pitchwife because he is an easy Night target 479: Congratulates Zil voters, thinks wolves in the Zil bandwagon would be at the beginning and end, wonders about Hakon 482: List: Leaning Innocent: Boro, Nienna, Nilp, Pitchwife; No Idea: Brinn, McCaber, Nog, Wilwa; Leaning Evil: Hakon, Nerwen, and Sally 484: Worried that people aren’t taking Nog into account at all. 486: Talks about the Shasta guard-wagon 505: Sally creeps her out, flip-flops about Nerwen, Hakon is also being considered for her lynch target 507: Quote:
510: Lynch votes Hakon and guard votes Boro 582: Defends her flip-flop nature in regards to Nog, then defends avoiding attention saying there isn’t much else she can do short of screaming "Heeeeeeeeeeey I'm a wolf!" 583: Wonders if a McCaber lynch is too easy 593: Lynch votes her only real suspect: Sally, guard votes for me but I couldn’t be guarded again so she changed to Wilwa in 595 647: Wonders if the Wilwa bandwagon was orchestrated by a wolf and if maybe one of the other lynch options was a wolf as well 650-651: Theory that both Pitchwife and McCaber are wolves, then that would make me a wolf as well Moral of the Story: I'm pretty sure she's a wolf. Edit: x-ed with a bunch
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09-11-2009, 02:39 PM | #684 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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I'm currently at a loss (surprisingly enough ) because my top suspects according to logic are Pitchwife and Nienna who both feel very innocent. Then again, my feel of people is often quite off and I think I'd rather trust my logic this time. It is a truly fatal Day. If we lynch an innocent, it's Game over. That is why I want to make a rational, well thought out vote that will (hopefully) contribute to the death of a werewolf. Relating to that, I'm curious if the people who find me creepy have any reasons for that. I don't mind people being suspicious of me, as long as they don't lose us the game by lynching me, but I'd prefer to know why so that I can answer to those suspicions. Because, as we all know, the best way of finding out whether someone is really a baddie or just an innocent is actually discussing with that person. Just saying "She creeps me out" doesn't lead to any conclusions on the said person's identity unless lynched. By that time it's too late. We want to consider all options. We just really really can't mess this up toDay, which is why I don't fancy "S/he creeps me out" -style suspicions whether they are about me or someone else. EDIT: x-ed with Boro, Nilp and Nienna
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09-11-2009, 02:48 PM | #685 | |
Laconic Loreman
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It's really quite a minor thing about Greenie which worries me the most, it may see insignificant, or trivial, but it's something that wolf-Greenie has done in the past, and the 1st time through I fell for it hook, line, and sinker.
In #411: Quote:
I recall a certain wolf-Greenie throwing out a vague comment about how Nilp was suspicious and she forgot why, I read it as a sign that she was a gifted. I fell right into it and began aggressively suspecting Nilp, who wound up being the Ranger. Her comment about Pitch reminds me of the same thing, a vague throw away comment about something important she had to say about someone, but then forgot.
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09-11-2009, 02:53 PM | #686 |
Reflection of Darkness
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Just to let you know I am here and working on analyses, but it's taking longer than expected so I'll try to speed it up and see how far I get.
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09-11-2009, 02:54 PM | #687 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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I have to leave in like ten minutes. I'm still not sure who to vote for.
(Going to go think about possible wolf packs.)
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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09-11-2009, 02:55 PM | #688 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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We can't afford to split up the vote so keep that in mind.
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09-11-2009, 03:00 PM | #689 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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McCaber?? Are you still around? Who do you find suspicious?
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09-11-2009, 03:04 PM | #690 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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Players:
Sally Brinn Nienna Boro Nilp Greenie Cabbie Pitchie Wolf pack #1: Greenie, Nilp, Pitchie Wolf pack #2: Greenie, Nilp, Boro Wolf pack #3: Greenie, Pitchie, Boro Wolf pack #4: Greenie, Brinn, Nilp Wolf pack #5: Greenie, Boro, Nienna Wolf pack #6: Brinn, Pitchie, Boro Wolf pack #7: Boro, Nilp, Pitchie Wolf pack #8: Nilp, Nienna, Brinn Wolf pack #9: Pitchie, Brinn, Nienna Wolf pack #10: Pitchie, Brinn, Nilp So....I guess my top suspects are Greenie, Pitch, and Nilp, more or less in that order. (And I know, it's not clear how I came to that conclusion based on the above list but it kind of makes sense in my head so meh.) EDIT: x'd with Nienna
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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09-11-2009, 03:06 PM | #691 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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++Greenie
Sorry, but I really have to leave. Wish I could discuss but there's simply not time. I'd recommend (obviously) a Greenie lynch or possibly a Pitch lynch. Either is fine with me, since I think they both have an equal chance of being a wolf. *dashes off*
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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09-11-2009, 03:06 PM | #692 |
Scion of The Faithful
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Doing an analysis of my main suspect Sally--so many posts, so little content--when I realised this.
What do we do with McCaber? Do we Night Guard him, keep him alive for one more DAY, but keep him from protecting someone? Or not, and let him twist in the wind? Obviously it would be better to protect him if we do get a Werewolf lynched toDAY (try to get the remaining baddies kill an unknown instead), but we'll have no forewarning whether the one winning the vote is Werewolf or not . . . So we need to decide this now-ish.
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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09-11-2009, 03:10 PM | #693 | |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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Quote:
Oh bugger, I'd forgotten about that.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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09-11-2009, 03:10 PM | #694 |
Laconic Loreman
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The only thing I'm banging my head over repeatedly is, despite our best chances ever to get a wolf now than any other day...with wolves so close to winning there is no doubt 1, if not 2, trying to steer our choice to an innocent.
It appears that's what McCaber was going to be set up for today, but to our fortune (or I guess mis-fortune now, at least we can defend him another night) our Ranger is revealed. But if I have this correct, if we guard McCaber, he will not be able to protect anyone, correct? It still would be better to guard him, that way there is a known innocent the next day, at least I'm assuming now he is who he says he is as now everyone has seen the reveal and no one's countered. Edit: crossed with Nilp, who wonders the same thing, and I agree.
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09-11-2009, 03:10 PM | #695 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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I almost don't want to be guarded. I've been doing a terrible job of analysis, and I think giving the village one day (or possibly two, if the wolves are tricksey like that) to sort things out would be the best.
And it seems that Greenie has been chosen. Let's hope she shows fur at nightfall.
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09-11-2009, 03:11 PM | #696 | |||||
Leaf-clad Lady
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Thanks Nienna! That cleared things up a bit.
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EDIT: x-ed since my last
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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09-11-2009, 03:12 PM | #697 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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He's allowed to save himself so I'd say we should let him save himself and then pick someone to guard... that way there is a possibility, even if it is small, of the wolves being robbed of their kill.
Edit: wow... x-ed with a host
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09-11-2009, 03:17 PM | #698 | |
Scion of The Faithful
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Quote:
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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09-11-2009, 03:18 PM | #699 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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That's a fair point.
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Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century. |
09-11-2009, 03:18 PM | #700 | ||
Scion of The Faithful
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Quote:
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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09-11-2009, 03:19 PM | #701 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Quote:
In that case, I would feel most comfortable protecting Brinn. Edit: Nilp, you're not reading the rest of the sentence that you have past the underlining..."The Ranger can not save themselves, or the same person, twice in a row." I take that to mean McCaber can guard himself, just not 2 days in a row...but I would guess McCaber would know that better than the rest of us.
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09-11-2009, 03:21 PM | #702 | ||
Leaf-clad Lady
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Quote:
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EDIT: x-ed with Nilp, McCaber, Nilp and Boro
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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09-11-2009, 03:21 PM | #703 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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No. McCaber can save himself. Then we will have a known innocent. We can also save someone who we all are seeming to trust giving us TWO people we trust and taking away a KILL from the wolves. All in all it is solid and anyone who thinks otherwise is probably a wolf.
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09-11-2009, 03:25 PM | #704 | ||||||||||
Reflection of Darkness
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Posts: 2,983
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Sally Analysis
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Then she gives a lot of tallies and votes Kit at the final minute. I don't care about her reasons behind voting her, but the fact that she was just chilling giving tallies but no other contribution for the last hour still looks suspicious. Quote:
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I flip flopped on Sally earlier, but now she's looking more suspicious than not.
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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09-11-2009, 03:26 PM | #705 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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I'm nearly positive I can't save myself. Unless something has changed since the admin thread said "No," that is.
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Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century. |
09-11-2009, 03:27 PM | #706 | ||
Reflection of Darkness
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McCaber can't fend for himself toNight:
Quote:
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09-11-2009, 03:27 PM | #707 |
Leaf-clad Lady
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This may sound like retaliation but I'm really suspicious of Nienna. Her role in yesterDay's bandwagon as well as her arguments toDay just stink of wolf. Pitchwife too, to some extent, according to my logic. I'd be ready to lynch either because I'm quite positive they are two of our three wolves. What do you others think? Who to lynch?
EDIT: x-ed with Brinn, McCaber and Brinn
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
09-11-2009, 03:28 PM | #708 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
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Now that I look at it, just from a tactics standpoint it makes sense for a wolf to vote early and try to sucker someone else into voting the same way. And to do so twice on the same day moves sally pretty near the top of my suspect list.
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Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century. |
09-11-2009, 03:29 PM | #709 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Quote:
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09-11-2009, 03:29 PM | #710 |
Scion of The Faithful
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I interpreted it literally, without that phrase 'or the same person' partitioned. Because obviously he can't guard himself twice in a row (if he can guard himself at all), cos he's the same person.
I think we need to get a ruling on this, though. Eönwë, can McCaber Guard himself? EDIT: inserted '(if he can guard himself at all)'.
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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09-11-2009, 03:30 PM | #711 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Quote:
I'm saying it reminded me of something to did towards Nilp as a wolf, and that first time I fell for it thinking you had gifted information.
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09-11-2009, 03:32 PM | #712 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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I am not a wolf. Sally voted early because she had to leave. She said so many times and you were (and still are) the most suspicious person in my opinion so her voting early doesn't seem weird.
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09-11-2009, 03:33 PM | #713 | |||||||||||||
Wight of the Old Forest
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To Boro
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You know what? Right now, I'm beginning to think I may just be too honest for this game. And I'm getting tired of sackcloth & ashes. I'm assuming you're coming after me because you honestly suspect me to be a wolf. I don't say the suspicion is unearned, and you do it well. But if you're a wolf driving nails into my coffin to make sure another innocent is lynched, well done too. Sadly, the truth as you see it will see us all dead. P.S. Before I forget it: ++Guard McCaber I think if he was faking, we would have a counter-reveal by now. (x-ed with a host)
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09-11-2009, 03:35 PM | #714 |
Laconic Loreman
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Thanks Brinn.
Now the big issue. If we guard McCaber we are assured of a known innocent tomorrow. However, if we don't get a wolf today, and guard him, then it's over. If we don't get a wolf today, and don't guard him, he can protect someone, but the wolves will most likely kill him...which means it's over anyway. So, I say we guard McCaber.
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09-11-2009, 03:37 PM | #715 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Quote:
EDIT: x-ed with Nienna, Pitch and Boro
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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09-11-2009, 03:37 PM | #716 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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I'd like to wait for a ruling from On High but am willing to guard him if he can't protect himself.
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09-11-2009, 03:38 PM | #717 |
Scion of The Faithful
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That did it. I'm pretty sure now.
++Nienna
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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09-11-2009, 03:39 PM | #718 |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
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Suspects:
Sally: Look my analysis post of her for reasons. Nienna: Her latching onto my suspicions of wilwa and pulling for the last minute bandwagon looks really bad. I do want to look at her more, but I'm out of time. Greenie: A possibility as she has seemed to be playing safe, which is suspicious. She's flown under my radar, but then again she always does that. The only thing is that a bunch of people have suddenly started flying suspicion Greenie's way and are ready to lynch her, and I fear that this could be the start of a bandwagon of an innocent, which would seal our fate. Pitchwife: Noggie did have good points about him, but I really haven't had time to look at him, and I don't feel I could vote him before taking a look myself. Deadline's only 25 minutes away. Where did the time go?
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09-11-2009, 03:40 PM | #719 | |
Flame Imperishable
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Quote:
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09-11-2009, 03:40 PM | #720 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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++ McCaber
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