Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Eönwë]

RL has really gotten in the way of my participation toDay. Catching up now; should be around until the deadline.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

"Suspect the helpful" theme continues...

I think your getting this from a post I made yesterDay. To clarify, I said it's a bad idea to write someone off as innocent because they're being helpful as it can be a classic wolf tactic. That isn't to say it's always the case or that someone can't be both helpful and innocent.

Anyway, I have yet to vote for anyone for the sole reason of looking too helpful as I agree that really isn't a good reason on its own.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

#461. Votes Eonwe because "I found him concerning on both lists I just made". Which is to say, being too helpful plus voting someone of then-unknown role.

I voted for Eonwe because a) his bandwagon vote looked opportunistic to me and b) I found his focus on the Dead Thread and other game play rules/technicalities to be distracting and I could see a baddie doing this to draw focus away from who to lynch. Not because he was being too helpful.

I referred to my previous post when voting as I had run out of time to write more, but I apologize if my reasons weren't clear at the time. Though, this is the second time I've had to clarify my vote to you so I don't understand why you keep misrepresenting it.

[Eönwë]

Summarising things to have them all in one place:


Day 1
Lommy -> Boro
Lalaith -> Nerwen
Morsul -> Lottie
Mith -> Lottie 2
Zil -> Nerwen 2
Legate -> Boro 2
Shasta -> Lottie 3
Lottie -> Boro 3
Brinn -> Lottie 4
Boro -> Boro 4

No lynch


Day 2
Zil -> Nerwen
Lommy -> Eonwe
Eomer -> Lottie
Lalaith -> Eomer
Legate -> Boro
Mith -> Zil
Nogrod -> Eonwe 2
Brinn -> Nerwen 2
Pervinca -> Zil 2
Nerwen -> Zil 3
Lottie -> Zil 4
Boro -> Zil 5
Eonwe -> Zil 6

Zil lynched


Day 3
Eomer -> Lottie
Sally -> Lottie 2
Lalaith -> Lottie 3
Brinniel -> Eonwe
Legate -> Boro
Lottie -> Boro 2
Nerwen -> Nog
Eonwe -> Nog 2
Shasta -> Legate
* Nog -> Eonwe [After deadline; did not count]

Lottie lynched


Day 4
Eönwe -> Nogrod
Nerwen -> Nogrod 2
Boro -> Legate
Shasta -> Legate 2
Nogrod -> Boro
Eomer -> Boro 2
Legate -> Boro 3
Lalaith -> Boro 4
Brinn -> Eonwe

Boro lynched

[Eönwë]

To use Kuru's most recent list:

Living
Nerwen
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Eönwë
Brinniel

The Dead
Morsul the Dark (presumed innocent)
Inziladun (innocent according to DT communication)
Thinlómien (presumed innocent)
Loslote (innocent according to DT communication)
Mithalwen (presumed innocent)
Boromir88 (?)
Nogrod (?)

Escaped
Pervinca Took (Known innocent)


edit: bolding

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Y'all, I'm sporadically here, but it doesn't look like I'm going to get too much done in the way of big long analysis posts. Sorry to keep harping on RL issues like this.

I will get some thoughts out, though, so people can see where I stand.

I think it likely that Sally and Legate are both evil. Sally is a tonal read for me - she isn't being as happy-go-lucky and helpful as she usually is when she's an innocent. Legate is murkier for me, but I've voted him two days in a row and it's gotten very little traction both days - it makes me think he's being saved by his evil partners. In fact, the only person to actually vote Legate with me has been Boro - and I think Boro was probably an ordo like he claimed, he was sounding like an innocent to me before he died. I'm not really sure where that bandwagon came from.

Brinniel is hard for me to read because she seems very helpful, but I think I'm being swayed fairly hard by Nerwen's analysis of her. I'd like to try and develop my own read on her, but I'm putting her in the orange category for now.

Eonwe has focused on the dead thread quite a bit this game and I can't recall whom he actually suspects as being evil. Lalaith is another person who's been around - I can recall her posting, a fair amount actually! - but I'm not sure who she suspects either.

Nerwen I've read as fairly consistently innocent throughout the game and nothing has really changed for me there. I need to reread some of her arguments and make sure I'm not just being blinded by her helpfulness, but I lean good on her.

Eomer I also lean fairly good on (whaaaaaat?). I was leaning good-er, but his posts today about how Boro was likely a wolf threw me a bit, as that's not what I was thinking about Boro at all, so I may need to re-evaluate.

--------------------

Summation - I would vote Legate or Sally - maybe Brinniel - toDay.

[Brinniel]

Both of my top suspects from yesterDay are still alive.

I'm not as sure toDay about Eonwe. Mainly because he's been so quiet the last two Days (due to RL commitments as I understand), so I'd like to hear more from him.

I'm still feeling just as uneasy about Legate as I did yesterDay, so I should probably look at him some more.

There are other players I should take a look too, but that will need to wait another hour or so when I get home.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I think your getting this from a post I made yesterDay. To clarify, I said it's a bad idea to write someone off as innocent because they're being helpful as it can be a classic wolf tactic. That isn't to say it's always the case or that someone can't be both helpful and innocent.

Anyway, I have yet to vote for anyone for the sole reason of looking too helpful as I agree that really isn't a good reason on its own.


I voted for Eonwe because a) his bandwagon vote looked opportunistic to me and b) I found his focus on the Dead Thread and other game play rules/technicalities to be distracting and I could see a baddie doing this to draw focus away from who to lynch. Not because he was being too helpful.

I referred to my previous post when voting as I had run out of time to write more, but I apologize if my reasons weren't clear at the time. Though, this is the second time I've had to clarify my vote to you so I don't understand why you keep misrepresenting it.

Back again briefly- no, I don't think I'm misrepresenting you. Certainly not deliberately- I've been looking at what you actually say in those posts and interpreting it as best I can. Maybe you meant something different by it- who knows? I felt there was a certain house-of-cards logic to some of your suspicions, to which I wanted to draw attention.

Brinn, Day Four

#496. Is not surprised by Mith's death as seems a no-trace kill.

#498. (Answering me, as I expressed surprise at a no-trace kill so late in the game) Thinks wolves were afraid of hunter/ranger, or afraid of the repercussions of killing off players who suspected them.

#499. Analyses Legate. Finds him more suspicious than previously, but no longer thinks he is a newly-turned wolf. Is also suspicious of Nog, Eonwe, me and Boro.

#544. Doesn't think Nogrod had an excuse for voting late; criticises him for wasting time with distracting subjects. Finds him suspicious, but also worried he would be an easy lynch target if innocent.

Comment: Can't argue with this, as it was exactly my reaction.

#561. (Answering Lalaith) Thinks Sally, not Shasta is the biggest submarine.

#566. "My top suspects for lynching are Legate and Eonwe. Legate for reasons I stated earlier toDay and my opinion of Eonwe has not changed since yesterDay.

Nogrod is another I'm still considering, but I'm feeling slightly hesitant about him."

Comment: See, once again I don't like that "my opinion has not changed since yesterDay", given the original reason was so flimsy- and people might not bother to check- leading perhaps to an impression of there being a stronger case against him than there actually is. (Of course Zil pulled the same thing on me and turned out to be innocent, so there's that...)

#580. Votes Eonwe. (Eonwe 2, Nog 2, Legate 2, Boro 4). The vote is consistent with her earlier suspicions. Tells us nothing either way. It would point to innocence if Boro turns out a wolf- however, I strongly doubt this is the case.

Comments: Hard to say. Much of her posting seems sensible and innocent but there are some definite wolfy indications as well. Hmmn.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Y'all, I'm sporadically here, but it doesn't look like I'm going to get too much done in the way of big long analysis posts. Sorry to keep harping on RL issues like this.

I will get some thoughts out, though, so people can see where I stand.

I think it likely that Sally and Legate are both evil. Sally is a tonal read for me - she isn't being as happy-go-lucky and helpful as she usually is when she's an innocent. Legate is murkier for me, but I've voted him two days in a row and it's gotten very little traction both days - it makes me think he's being saved by his evil partners. In fact, the only person to actually vote Legate with me has been Boro - and I think Boro was probably an ordo like he claimed, he was sounding like an innocent to me before he died. I'm not really sure where that bandwagon came from.

Brinniel is hard for me to read because she seems very helpful, but I think I'm being swayed fairly hard by Nerwen's analysis of her. I'd like to try and develop my own read on her, but I'm putting her in the orange category for now.

Eonwe has focused on the dead thread quite a bit this game and I can't recall whom he actually suspects as being evil. Lalaith is another person who's been around - I can recall her posting, a fair amount actually! - but I'm not sure who she suspects either.

Nerwen I've read as fairly consistently innocent throughout the game and nothing has really changed for me there. I need to reread some of her arguments and make sure I'm not just being blinded by her helpfulness, but I lean good on her.

Eomer I also lean fairly good on (whaaaaaat?). I was leaning good-er, but his posts today about how Boro was likely a wolf threw me a bit, as that's not what I was thinking about Boro at all, so I may need to re-evaluate.

--------------------

Summation - I would vote Legate or Sally - maybe Brinniel - toDay.

What he said, basically.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right, I have spent some time trying to go through peoples' posts and all and it's awfully exhausting.

All the knowledge combined with this question: who would be the most logical member of a Wolf pack, taking into account all that has happened?

Eönwë has been helpful since the beginning, and I would imagine that either he would have been turned at some point, or killed (which he obviously wasn't), or then he's been something since the very beginning (an EW or a Wolf turned on Night 1). I think at least on Day 1 he really looked just helpful. If he had been turned, he could easily just have continued doing that in the same track. What drew my eyes to him the most was his super-safe spot in the Inzil bandwagon, though.

Sally has been like the biggest submarine from the start, and she tends to be. She would be quite a logical pick for a Wolf. One thing is, her behavior has been mostly consistent, so at least I would rather imagine her as one from the start rather than one turned at some point (then again, it isn't very difficult to be consistent as a submarine. But I mean there are nuances as to how you act towards people at those rare occassions when you do).

Nerwen would be a person I could easily imagine being picked by the EW in the sense that she can hide her nature well; thing is, she has been pretty much consistent and sort of in the background - like I said, many of her posts especially at start actually were helpful (clarifying rules etc) without actual commitment. So if she was a Wolf, I would think she would be one rather from the beginning, or then simply the EW.

Brinniel has been quieter in the beginning, then kind of became more involved as the game went on. Could that signify a role shift? She also could be a clever Wolf with staying on the edge of the discussion without attracting too much attention. Sort of floating in the middle.

Eomer has been also floating by without attracting the attention or controversy he usually does. I actually haven't thought about this before at all. ToDay, he has also spent practically the whole Day bringing the debate back to theoretical questions about the Nightly events, which, while objectively interesting, don't really specifically lead us anywhere in terms of deciding the lynch. Still, objectively, I don't think I would write him down for a vote.

Lalaith was most of the time sounding quite genuine, of course she could be just a Wolf buttering up people. But she is about the only player I feel fairly comfortable about at the moment.

Shasta... has been a horrible submarine (thanks to RL, I gather, however), at least in the beginning, then he has had this one-mind track about pursuing me during the last few Days. That is actually also interesting, could it be a shift after he has been turned into a Wolf? In any case, I really can't tell what I am thinking of him.

Basically, the problem is that really we don't have any info at all. Like what is one supposed to make of that.

I need to think and it is sorta frustrating. Nerwen or Eönwë are probably on top of my list, but seriously, it can be anyone.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm a bit surprised that more people aren't wrestling with these numbers. We've had all game to speculate on 'so-and-so feels wolfy to me'; but now there's possibly essential info for us to work with. We've not come across a single wolf all game - we've been shooting in the dark!

But today, we know for certain that the EW is not at maximum wolfage. Either Boro was innocent, in which case we need to work out possible night scenarios - all of which seem less likely to me, given that they're based on so much bad luck for the EW.

Or Boro was guilty, which I find more likely, and which probably cuts our lynch candidates almost by half.

All right, time to focus more closely on my top lynch suspects.

[Lalaith]

Apologies, I'm now back but I've had a hectic evening, it's late where I am and I will need to go to bed soon. The interesting Day that Kuru promised us hasn't yet materialised in the way I'd imagined...I had hoped to hold off my vote til closer to DL but I'm just too tired.

For various reasons ( barring any startling revelations) I am inclining to vote for Eonwe today. Sorry I haven't had time to do a point by point analysis on this one, but my suspicion is down to a plethora of small things rather than one big one...eg the helpful list at the start feeling slightly less helpful with the 'small portions' policy.

Then there's Nerwen - after my initial doubts on Day One I started to feel ok with her but there's this loyalty to Eonwe which puzzles me - any true innocent should probably just be feeling a bit paranoid about everyone (that's certainly how I'm feeling)
Eomer:

We've not come across a single wolf all game - we've been shooting in the dark!

How do you know Boro wasn't a wolf?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Gotta say, reading back through all days and I'm in great danger of becoming set in my ways. Today has reinforced my suspicions from yesterday. There's something drawing me to Eonwe's side over Brinniel. Shasta and Sally to make up the evil team.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ok, I have been pretty much mentally exhausted during the last few hours and I also feel tired. I might really want to vote and go to sleep sooner rather than later. And it is late here already.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Or Boro was guilty, which I find more likely, and which probably cuts our lynch candidates almost by half.

It is true that both Nerwen and/or Eönwë being Wolves would make sense in that paradigm (if just looking at last two Days' worth of votes).

EDIT: x-ed with Lalaith and Eomer

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm leaning away from Nog being the visitor, simply because I would have expected a Ranger save to be more strongly hinted at. This would mean it's the GW who keeps getting thwarted, because we haven't seen the visitor yet, suggesting that Boro was indeed a wolf and that it was the GW plus gifted who were happy that Boro was on the chopping block.

Are you including the Ranger blocking a pick as a Ranger save? Or do you just mean from a kill? Because if the former is the case, then if you're right, we have to assume that the thwarting is in the form of the pickee already being converted by the other side, in which case it seems more likely that it is the EW being blocked. The GW only has two picks that are blockable in such a way, and I imagine that the Ranger was probably assigned on N1 (I mean, I know that's what I would do as the GW), so it's really only a Hunter pick that could be so blocked. Given that we're still alive, we know the EW only has a maximum of two wolves, and therefore (unless both Boro and Nog are wolves, in which case the Ranger assumption is wrong) would have had at least one pick left last Night, which I imagine they would use ASAP as the size of the village decreases and therefore the Wizards' Duel draws nearer.


This is all pretty worrying because it means that if the evil side does have 2 wolves, we need to vote correctly toDay to not lose the game.


edit:x-posted with a few

[Eönwë]

On reread, it also turns out that by borrowing Nog's list here, I missed out a vote, and also forgot to include the empowerment. So here is a corrected post.



Day 1
Lommy -> Boro
Lalaith -> Nerwen
Morsul -> Lottie
Mith -> Lottie 2
Zil -> Nerwen 2
Legate -> Boro 2
Shasta -> Lottie 3
Lottie -> Boro 3
Brinn -> Lottie 4
Boro -> Boro 4

No lynch


Day 2
Zil -> Nerwen
Lommy -> Eonwe
Eomer -> Lottie
Lalaith -> Eomer
Legate -> Boro
Mith -> Zil
Nogrod -> Eonwe 2
Brinn -> Nerwen 2
Pervinca -> Zil 2
Nerwen -> Zil 3
Lottie -> Zil 4
Boro -> Zil 5
Eonwe -> Zil 6

Zil lynched


Day 3
Eomer -> Lottie
Sally -> Lottie 2
Lalaith -> Lottie 3
Brinniel -> Eonwe [+1, empowered]
Legate -> Boro
Lottie -> Boro 2
Nerwen -> Nog
Eonwe -> Nog 2
Shasta -> Legate
* Nog -> Eonwe [After deadline; did not count]

Lottie lynched


Day 4
Eönwe -> Nog
Nerwen -> Nog 2
Boro -> Legate
Shasta -> Legate 2 [+1, empowered]
Sally -> Eonwe
Nog -> Boro
Eomer -> Boro 2
Legate -> Boro 3
Lalaith -> Boro 4
Brinn -> Eonwe

Boro lynched



Ok, definitely time to put my thoughts down about people. There's just been so much to think about.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

How do you know Boro wasn't a wolf?

Hm, that may be a good catch.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lal, that's all I've been posting about today! The permutations of that possibility. Including in the post you quoted from.

[Brinniel]

Sally has texted me and requested that I report to the village that she's had some trouble getting online, but she should be around shortly.

[Lalaith]

The permutations of that possibility. Including in the post you quoted from.

I know, I'm not trying to frame you. I just don't understand the logic of what you said.
Speaking of framing...I have a feeling that Nerwen is trying set Brinn up.This could just be because I don't find Brinn particularly suspicious myself.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Apologies, I'm now back but I've had a hectic evening, it's late where I am and I will need to go to bed soon. The interesting Day that Kuru promised us hasn't yet materialised in the way I'd imagined...I had hoped to hold off my vote til closer to DL but I'm just too tired.

For various reasons ( barring any startling revelations) I am inclining to vote for Eonwe today. Sorry I haven't had time to do a point by point analysis on this one, but my suspicion is down to a plethora of small things rather than one big one...eg the helpful list at the start feeling slightly less helpful with the 'small portions' policy.

Then there's Nerwen - after my initial doubts on Day One I started to feel ok with her but there's this loyalty to Eonwe which puzzles me - any true innocent should probably just be feeling a bit paranoid about everyone (that's certainly how I'm feeling)
Eomer:

How do you know Boro wasn't a wolf?

He's pretty clearly doing it as a hypothetical.

As for why I'm loyal to Eonwe- perhaps he just doesn't strike me as guilty. However, there is more than one way to be an "innocent" in this game- I'm surprised that doesn't seem to factor into anyone's calculations, actually.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I know, I'm not trying to frame you. I just don't understand the logic of what you said.
Speaking of framing...I have a feeling that Nerwen is trying set Brinn up.This could just be because I don't find Brinn particularly suspicious myself.

No I'm not. Just an honest analysis, trying to puzzle her out.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lal, I'm happy to explain anything that you think is unclear in my post. I'm saying, we haven't encountered a single wolf all game. Now, in previous days, (when we were waiting on info about Zil and Loslote) that still doesn't tell us much, because a million things might have happened, so speculating on their roles at those times wouldn't really have got us anywhere. However, today when we can see for sure that there are not 3 wolves, then our explanations for what has happened are more limited; and we can now openly, and productively, speculate on Boro's role before we get info from the Dead Thread.

What are you suggesting, Nerwen?

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Or Boro was guilty, which I find more likely, and which probably cuts our lynch candidates almost by half.

Nice way to get yourself off the hook toDay, eh?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Lal, I'm happy to explain anything that you think is unclear in my post. I'm saying, we haven't encountered a single wolf all game. Now, in previous days, (when we were waiting on info about Zil and Loslote) that still doesn't tell us much, because a million things might have happened, so speculating on their roles at those times wouldn't really have got us anywhere. However, today when we can see for sure that there are not 3 wolves, then our explanations for what has happened are more limited; and we can now openly, and productively, speculate on Boro's role before we get info from the Dead Thread.

What are you suggesting, Nerwen?

l am suggesting that I know some things about people's roles. I don't want to reveal what my own is exactly, but suffice it to say that I have been told that Boro was, and Eonwe is, innocent. That is all for now.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Brinniel suspecting Legate gives me pause. Hmm.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Brinniel suspecting Legate gives me pause. Hmm.

To clarify, I still think Legate is evil but I'm wondering about Brinniel now.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Half an hour before deadline...

Ok, back to have another look.

[Lalaith]

The Good Wizard may send messages via the Mod to the Gifteds. The Good Wizard may not share their own identity or the identity of the other Gifteds. If they wanted me to do that I would just not include that part of the message.

The rules

[Lalaith]

I'm not trying to out anyone. I just want to go to bed. *whimper*

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

l am suggesting that I know some things about people's roles. I don't want to reveal what my own is exactly, but suffice it to say that I have been told that Boro was, and Eonwe is, innocent. That is all for now.

Ugh, nice to start saying things like this at this moment. It certainly does not help that I have been suspicious about Nerwen, because how should one then take that word - I can see Wolves trying to make some pulls like that especially if it looks like they could be threatened. Now what is one to trust here?

EDIT: x-ed with two Shastas, Eomer, and two Lals

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I'm not trying to out anyone. I just want to go to bed. *whimper*

More of us were ready to do that, and then I come back to this.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Legate

I haven't seen anything to change my mind, and the fact that the Dead thread chose me to empower yesterday just adds to my conviction.

[Lalaith]

Ok Nerwen. I think this is the end game here. I want to go to bed and I'm going to vote for Eonwe unless you give me a better reason not to.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Ok Nerwen. I think this is the end game here. I want to go to bed and I'm going to vote for Eonwe unless you give me a better reason not to.

A better reason than me telling you I'm a gifted who has been told his role? Really?

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

l am suggesting that I know some things about people's roles. I don't want to reveal what my own is exactly, but suffice it to say that I have been told that Boro was, and Eonwe is, innocent. That is all for now.

If you're telling the truth, I think we might want to consider a Legate-Eomer wolf(/EW)-pack, given the support they've been giving each other toDay, without actually sharing too many direct suspicions.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

First of all, just want to say that I love werewolf.

Second, this is just so massively, massively suspicious. The wrong lynch today very possibly costs the game.

But Nerwen knows this looks suspicious.

So, the EW has been thwarted 3 times? Right?

[Brinniel]

Some more thoughts....

If Boro is innocent that sudden bandwagon against him is troublesome, and I'd want to take a closer look Lalaith and Eomer who have pretty flown under my radar. If he turns out to be guilty however, I would say both of them look pretty innocentish. I mean, why set up a last minute lynch for a wolfish Boro when there were other lynch candidates to consider?

I don't think Legate's vote yesterDay tells us as much since he was next in line on the lynching block and his vote could have been made out of self-preservation. He did vote for Boro on all other Days, so Boro's guilt might make him look a bit better. Hounding on a fellow wolf throughout the entire game would be quite the risk, though not impossible. His opinions are still pretty non-committal, so without knowing Boro's identity, my feelings about him haven't really changed.

When Nerwen suspects someone, she is quite aggressive about it. I don't know, perhaps that is just her playing style. But I don't like how she is manipulating my past posts. When doing a post-by-post analysis of someone, it would be better if you used actual quotes or links rather than rephrasing what's been said.

Sally does also worry me some. She is quite a submarine in that she hasn't posted a lot of substance. Just enough to be an active participant without really being noticed.

I feel better about Shasta because as I said before, while his post count is low, his posts seem more substantial and feel more sensible to me.

Eonwe is around, but so far he has only been posting lists and such...nothing of real substance.

EDIT: X-ed with a bunch of posts...um, what going on here?

[Nerwen]

Anyway, I think I will trust my jewel's judgement- plus I don't want to split votes, given the push to lynch someone I know to be innocent:

++Legate

Edit: x'd since my last post.

[Lalaith]

Nerwen, the rules clearly say you wouldn't be told anyone elses role as a gifted.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lal, the GW could have informed gifted Nerwen about known innocents.