Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Nerwen]

Did I mention it looks as though tp was indeed innocent?

[Nerwen]

Now I may have some more to add later. For now, though, in case I can't get online again, I'll just say that the Ranger had better not waste a protection on me. Among other things I don't think I'll be getting any more pms anyway and we've got (effectively) a whole bunch of known innocents now.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'd have to concur with McCaber's post #602 and suppose that it's highly likely that Boro killed Lalaith.

Depending on the Ranger situation - and obviously the Ranger will know best - it doesn't seem unlikely that Nerwen would have been protected last night, or that she would have been targetted. If so then it's still very plausible that we have two wolf-packs still (or maybe not if Lalaith was the last of hers?) Still, I'd love to know what the Ranger's been up to as it might give an indication of how many wolves remain.

I'm babbling. I don't do responsibility well.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Still, I'd love to know what the Ranger's been up to as it might give an indication of how many wolves remain.

I'm curious on this part Eomer. How would the benefit of knowing who the ranger has protected and if they were successful last night, as I think it sounds like, outweigh having the ranger in the open? Yes it would give us one known innocent but it would remove a powerful member of the team within a Night or two. Granted they would come back somewhat more powerful but again would last a limited amount of time. As you say the ranger would know best but I find it odd that you are requesting the ranger to tell us what they've been up to.

[Kath]

I am on a residential trip with no wifi access and limited signal!

Therefore I am simply going to vote. I will not be around for Nerwen to explain what she knows, so I am going take her list at face value and vote for the person at the top.

++Formendacil[/QUOTE]

My sincere apologies for non attendance. Bad timing.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Morm, I'm simply wondering out loud about the status of the Ranger last night and if we could learn anything certain from such info. If we can indeed pin the Lalaith-kill on Boro, which seems very reasonable at the moment, then it would be lovely to know if one of the packs has been eliminated.

But I don't see any sure way to get that info today.

In any case, are we going to arrange something similar to what happened yesterday, so we can get some info from the Dead?

For what it's worth, I'm also much concerned by Formendacil, so I approve of Kath's vote - random though it may have been.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm totally unsuited to such schemes, but:

So, the Dead will have found out about either: Phantom, Nogrod, Rune, Legate or Rikae. Not Mac and not Agan as that would be wasteful; hopefully not Phantom as we seem to know about him already, but the Dead were not to know that this info was forthcoming.

So that's 10 options to spread around 12 voting villagers. No problem. We even have two more spaces for wacky possibilities, like: empower X if you know Kuru is still alive and planning something devilish.

[mormegil]

Yes and give two options per person. We could have the 3 known be separate if needed. Which it will likely need be. Certainly not 100% fool proof but worth the shot. It was nice to learn of Greene that way.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm totally unsuited to such schemes, but:

So, the Dead will have found out about either: Phantom, Nogrod, Rune, Legate or Rikae. Not Mac and not Agan as that would be wasteful; hopefully not Phantom as we seem to know about him already, but the Dead were not to know that this info was forthcoming.

So that's 10 options to spread around 12 voting villagers. No problem. We even have two more spaces for wacky possibilities, like: empower X if you know Kuru is still alive and planning something devilish.

[Formendacil]

Well, that was less to catch up on than I was expecting--I guess Monday is a busy day (and/or all the talkative people are over on the Dead Thread).

It seems that Boro has declined to establish or deny a connection to Nerwen's PM--fair enough, even if I'd have preferred at least a verbal "I'm not going to confirm or deny it."

Looking at the current List of the Living, here are my current impressions:

Definitely Innocent:
Formendacil
satansaloser2005

--I suppose the theoretical possibility exists that Sally is faking being the lover, but I don't see that this is at all likely unless the Lovers both died right away, in which case how would the wolf playing at it even know that?

Most Likely Innocent:
Boromir88
Nerwen

--It's possible Boro is not the Special Role, but that's not why I put him here. I'm willing to believe he is; my tiny hesitation is due more to the fact that I don't know if the Special Role is on the side of the Village. It keeps making me thinking Werebear more than any other existing role, with a few special twists to make up for the fact that the Bear has no team. I don't think it likely, but I do think it possible.

Nerwen's apparent innocence is, similarly, convincing but not definitive. Not knowing where her PM came from (something that she may be forbidden to reveal anyway or which may have come through the proxy of our late, beloved Kuru), it's not impossible that she IS a wolf AND has relayed all information about this PM in complete, transparent honesty. Again, though, the fact that her lycanthropy remains possible isn't sufficient reason to think that it is.

The Rest:
Eomer of the Rohirrim
McCaber
mormegil
Thinlómien
Nilpaurion Felagund
Kath
Shastanis Althreduin
Mithalwen

--These are in order of most suspicious to least suspicious, but it's no more than a Hobbit's cubit between the first and last of them.

The frustrating thing is that we don't know how many wolves are left--let alone which packs. If we've actually eliminated an entire pack (hence the one death less), then we could have as few as one wolf in eight here. On the other hand, if both packs are alive and one simply failed (either via Ranger kill or by going for the same target) to get its victim, AND assuming that we've killed two wolves in Lottie and Mac, we could have as many as four wolves left--a 1 in 2 statistic out of these remaining eight.

That seems less likely, simply going by gut feeling. One thing I wonder about is the Ranger. If the Ranger is still alive, their self-revelation would give us a third Known Innocent AND a record of their protections/guesses. Which is not to say that I think the Ranger should out themself (especially if they think we still have something like 4 wolves abroad), but I'm wondering if we could examine our recent dead and find a Ranger candidate. If I understand the rules aright, they have to remain dead a complete Day (so anyone lynched yesterDay or killed last Night would be a candidate) and could return. Both of last night's kills, Lalaith and Firefoot don't seem completely implausible (Lottie does seem to be rather beyond the pale there). And, in any case, it's probably worth going over their posts again just in case there's something to be found that might suggest Giftedness--even in Lalaith's case, if Boro *IS* on our side, nothing yet suggests he's omniscient, and who knows if he might have coincided with a kill from a wolfpack.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm totally unsuited to such schemes, but:

So, the Dead will have found out about either: Phantom, Nogrod, Rune, Legate or Rikae. Not Mac and not Agan as that would be wasteful; hopefully not Phantom as we seem to know about him already, but the Dead were not to know that this info was forthcoming.

So that's 10 options to spread around 12 voting villagers. No problem. We even have two more spaces for wacky possibilities, like: empower X if you know Kuru is still alive and planning something devilish.

If we want ten-for-ten we could subtract Boro and Sally, our two "Known Roles" (well, more so than the rest--substitute Nerwen in place of one of them, if you prefer) and leave the ten votes for the ten unknowns. We could do a strict alphabetical correspondence.:

Aganzir..........................................E omer of the Rohirrim
A Little Green................................Formendacil
Firefoot.........................................K ath
Lalaith........................................... McCaber
Legate of Amon Lanc....................Mithalwen
Macalaure.....................................morm egil
Nogrod..........................................Ne rwen
Rikae............................................. Nilpaurion Felagund
Rune Son of Bjarne.......................Shastanis Althreduin
the phantom.................................Thinlómien
If his vote is for a known wolf.......Boromir88
If her vote is for a known wolf......satansaloser2005


A similar scheme (put the Living column in reverse alphabetical order, swap out Nerwen for Boro, etc) could easily be mocked up.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm not sure what to make of that from Form. I mean, there's no way a wolf has missed what's gone down today; but I guess evil-Form would make such an effort to paint himself as an ignorant innocent.

So is it genuine? Or a bold attempt at disguise?

[Thinlómien]

...? what???

Form, what are you suggesting?

Say, the dead empower Kath, then Firefoot what?? Is one whose role is known by the dead? But is she innocent or guilty???

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

...? what???

Form, what are you suggesting?

Say, the dead empower Kath, then Firefoot what?? Is one whose role is known by the dead? But is she innocent or guilty???

Heh. I actually got so caught up in lining up names alphabetically, I forgot about making anything actually WORK.

That said, I think it could be made to work. If we ask that the Dead confirm one of their number as known Wolf, we could potentially discover a third wolf (which tangentially makes me realise that Loslote was somehow left off my list. I guess only Sally gets left off--or should it be Boro, since he seems to have special knowledge).

Or is it better to discover a definitive innocent among the Dead? Depending on who it is--and I assume the Dead would have inquired about the most interesting names first--that might be more valuable for us in looking over the voting records.

[Thinlómien]

(yeah, that's how I feel like, not knowing anything and having to trust people with really weird reveals - and not really having the time to mull them over - and having probably been wrong about the three people I've suspected the most - Agan the Hunter, Sally the Lover and Boro the Itch Man /end rant)

So assuming no one who's done a reveal is lying and we can trust the dead and some common sense:

Alive Innocent
Sally
Nerwen
Boro
Lommy
Eomer
Shasta

Alive Unknown
Form
McCaber
morm
Nilp
Mith
Kath

Dead Innocent
Aganzir
Greenie
the phantom
Firefoot

Dead Unknown
Rikae
Nogrod
Rune
Lalaith
Legate

Dead Guilty
Mac
Lottie

The good thing is that if we've been doing badly this far (Lottie and Mac would be the only wolves we've got rid of), then we have a 2/3 chance of bagging a wolf toDay. That is of some comfort.

Personally, I'm the most worried about kawaii Nilp and McSneaky. Form and morm have seemed like their innocent selves throughout the game - and now Form is so confused I'm not sure he can be a wolf and morm has been helpfully sharp in a way that genuinely suggests an innocent trying to think things through. Mith and Kath? Not much data, but I kind of think both would be more involved as wolves...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Heh. I actually got so caught up in lining up names alphabetically, I forgot about making anything actually WORK.

That said, I think it could be made to work. If we ask that the Dead confirm one of their number as known Wolf, we could potentially discover a third wolf (which tangentially makes me realise that Loslote was somehow left off my list. I guess only Sally gets left off--or should it be Boro, since he seems to have special knowledge).

Or is it better to discover a definitive innocent among the Dead? Depending on who it is--and I assume the Dead would have inquired about the most interesting names first--that might be more valuable for us in looking over the voting records.

Not sure I understand. We can't ask the dead to give us a dead wolf's name, because they might not have any.

What if we just upgrade Firefoot's scheme [original version] from yesterDay:

(just deleted dead people from the voting options and replaced the phantom and Greenie with Rikae and Legate)

If Nog is a wolf, give your extra vote to Form or McCaber
If Nog is innocent, give your extra vote to Nerwen
If Rikae is a wolf, give your extra vote to Boro
If Rikae is innocent, give your extra vote to Lommy
If Legate is a wolf, give your extra vote to Eomer or morm
If Legate is innocent, give your extra vote to Nilp or shasta
If Rune is a wolf, give your extra vote to Mith or Kath
If Rune is innocent, give your extra vote to Sally

I think this will create the least confusion, in case the dead have started voting already (TIMEZONES) and I don't think it's implausible they went with Firefoot's scheme again if the person they scried was on it...

I also strongly suggest figuring this out in the first half of the Day toMorrow.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm hopeful that today's votes are gonna give us more to go on. I can't tell anything about McCaber, Mith, Kath or Nilp at the moment. Morm has very interesting interactions with both Loslote and Mac early in the game; normally I'd be very suspicious of this but in a game like this I can't tell if wolves would be covering their tracks in such a way from Day 1. I think it's probable that he's innocent.

My opinion on Form changes by the minute.

[Thinlómien]

The only vote toDay yet is Kath for Form?

I need to go to sleep soon (I know; I only just came back!), so if anyone's around, which one of Nerwen's options would you prefer?

They were

Form
McCaber
morm
Nilp
Mith
Kath

Personally I'd actually prefer a stab in the dark with Nilp or McCaber, as I said in my list post. The rest of you guys actually seem fairly innocent to me. It's pretty optimistic to think there are only two wolves remaining though...

Argh.

Somebody bring forwards a good argument against somebody? I'm at loss.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lommy, I'm concerned Nerwen is away for the day without voting. I forget where she's based, but doesn't she normally vote early in the day? Might be better to pair her up with someone else in your scheme.

It would be nice to know that everyone is voting today.

[mormegil]

I was going to post something similar to what Lommy posted and I'm thoroughly confused by Form. The outline he laid out would be impractical as we know some of the role already of those who he proposed. Plus with only an option of one it creates a situation that makes it more possible to have a negative outcome. His behavior is extremely odd. He's quickly overtaking Eomer and Nilp for my top spot.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Lommy, I'm concerned Nerwen is away for the day without voting. I forget where she's based, but doesn't she normally vote early in the day? Might be better to pair her up with someone else in your scheme.

What happens if the dead give an extra vote to a person who didn't vote? I assume we would still be told they picked her?

edi: xed with morm

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Not much has been said since I've been gone. Hm. I'm not a hundred percent on why it's been narrowed down to six (my moon and stars has been busy, it seems), but I'm sure there's some sort of reason behind it. Of the six listed, I'd like to look more closely at Nilp, so I'll probably go and do that.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

What happens if the dead give an extra vote to a person who didn't vote? I assume we would still be told they picked her?

edi: xed with morm

Not sure, but I assume if we don't put a plan together we agree on soon, they won't have time to react.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by morm

Not sure, but I assume if we don't put a plan together we agree on soon, they won't have time to react.

That's why I suggested continuing Firefoot's scheme as closely as possibly - given that the dead Europeans (*makes a face at Agan if she's reading the living thread*) may well have voted already, they might have gone with Firefoot's scheme since we hadn't come up with a new one. I think I may have muddled it up by removing the phantom though - Nerwen told us only toDay he was innocent, so the dead might well have checked him earlier. But I'm not sure what to change in order not to muddle it up even worse.

#more reasons we should do this earlier toMorrow

[Mithalwen]

I am around but a bit uncertain.. well very uncertain really...

I am inclined to trust Nerwen and Boro probably stupid of me but. I pretty much suspect everyone else

. I still can't see what function Sally's reveal served so am inclined not to trust it implicitly. Kath may well be having the week from Mordor but I gave her the benefit of the doubt too long under comparable circumstances and she was an unavoidably absent wolf. Would hate to vote for my boy but while I love him to bits I can't profess to understand or read Nilp.

morm worries me because apart from the notable occasion when he declared me an innocent in a cross post with my bored confession in Saucepan's game, he normally reads me correctly. And unsubstantiated accusations of suspicious posting are.. well suspicious. And of course I know I am not a wolf. The others I am yet to get a handle on... maybe I am just very rusty. But given the timezone compatibility I have had a reist earlier and am now had a usualy ill advised midnight strong coffee... you do realise that I am sacrificing the good worl of six months good "sleep hygiene" after 15 years insomnia for this... oh well self inflicted injury can't expect sympathy.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Not sure I understand. We can't ask the dead to give us a dead wolf's name, because they might not have any.

What if we just upgrade Firefoot's scheme [original version] from yesterDay:

(just deleted dead people from the voting options and replaced the phantom and Greenie with Rikae and Legate)

If Nog is a wolf, give your extra vote to Form or McCaber
If Nog is innocent, give your extra vote to Nerwen
If Rikae is a wolf, give your extra vote to Boro
If Rikae is innocent, give your extra vote to Lommy
If Legate is a wolf, give your extra vote to Eomer or morm
If Legate is innocent, give your extra vote to Nilp or shasta
If Rune is a wolf, give your extra vote to Mith or Kath
If Rune is innocent, give your extra vote to Sally

I think this will create the least confusion, in case the dead have started voting already (TIMEZONES) and I don't think it's implausible they went with Firefoot's scheme again if the person they scried was on it...

I also strongly suggest figuring this out in the first half of the Day toMorrow.

I saw this is our best option for now and we go with it as a guide for the dead to use.

[Thinlómien]

If Nog is a wolf, give your extra vote to Form or McCaber
If Nog is innocent, give your extra vote to Lottie or Nerwen
If phantom is a wolf, give your extra vote to Boro
If phantom is innocent, give your extra vote to Lommy
If Rikae is a wolf, give your extra vote to Eomer
If Rikae is innocent, give your extra vote to morm
If Legate is innocent, give your extra vote to Nilp
If Legate is guilty, give your extra vote to Shasta
If Rune is a wolf, give your extra vote to Mith or Kath
If Rune is innocent, give your extra vote to Sally

This way if the dead followed Firefoot's original instructions from yesterDay while voting, we would still get the correct result. (Unless they scried someone who wasn't on the instructions yesterDay, and had to improvise.)

The worst thing about the scheme above is that the dead are going to add a total wild card to the lynch vote toDay.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Not sure I understand. We can't ask the dead to give us a dead wolf's name, because they might not have any.

To be honest, I'm not sure I understand either. I'm constantly trying to get my mind around how everything in this game works and the normal milestones of a regular game, which I might use to get my bearings, are mostly missing. If we did try to salvage my scheme, they would at least be able to give us the name of Mac or Lottie if they had no other wolves--and if they did, that would be evidence (though not quite confirmation) that no other wolves were still alive.

What if we just upgrade Firefoot's scheme [original version] from yesterDay:

That's fine with me--it does seem to have been better thought out than mine. It doesn't invalidate using it, but I agree with Eomer that we may have to consider Nerwen a lost voice this late in the day.

Morm and Eomer both seem to find me very confusing. Fair enough: I find Eomer suspicious and Morm oddly under my radar for someone who both posts a fair bit and finds me suspicious. The whole metaphor of being under the radar is that of concealment, so I sort of do worry about Morm, but not for any particular reason I can lay my finger on (well, other than suspicion of me, but that's hard a ground on which I can convince anyone else).

[Thinlómien]

Okay I need to go very soon. Voting Nilp in 10 minutes unless someone has a very convincing argument or I get magically enlightened while brushing my teeth.

Also I strongly advocate my newer suggestion for the dead thread communication to minimize confusion, as it involves the phantom whom the dead may have checked last Night even though it isn't that helpful to us anymore. (Unless we learn he was a wolf and we need to question everything Nerwen said...?)


edit: xed with Form

[satansaloser2005]

Hello. *whimpers* I'm here.

I'm going to catch up a bit, but the odds of me being terribly useless toDay are slim to none due to work and other plans.

I'll be back in a bit.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Okay I need to go very soon. Voting Nilp in 10 minutes unless someone has a very convincing argument or I get magically enlightened while brushing my teeth.

Also I strongly advocate my newer suggestion for the dead thread communication to minimize confusion, as it involves the phantom whom the dead may have checked last Night even though it isn't that helpful to us anymore. (Unless we learn he was a wolf and we need to question everything Nerwen said...?)


edit: xed with Form

I certainly think a decision should be made and stuck to.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

If Nog is a wolf, give your extra vote to Form or McCaber
If Nog is innocent, give your extra vote to Lottie or Nerwen
If phantom is a wolf, give your extra vote to Boro
If phantom is innocent, give your extra vote to Lommy
If Rikae is a wolf, give your extra vote to Eomer
If Rikae is innocent, give your extra vote to morm
If Legate is innocent, give your extra vote to Nilp
If Legate is guilty, give your extra vote to Shasta
If Rune is a wolf, give your extra vote to Mith or Kath
If Rune is innocent, give your extra vote to Sally

This way if the dead followed Firefoot's original instructions from yesterDay while voting, we would still get the correct result. (Unless they scried someone who wasn't on the instructions yesterDay, and had to improvise.)

The worst thing about the scheme above is that the dead are going to add a total wild card to the lynch vote toDay.

I'm okay with final version...everyone else?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I'm okay with final version...everyone else?

Dropping in long enough to say I'm okay with this.

[Formendacil]

Good enough for me.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

morm worries me because apart from the notable occasion when he declared me an innocent in a cross post with my bored confession in Saucepan's game, he normally reads me correctly. And unsubstantiated accusations of suspicious posting are.. well suspicious.

There is a reason I've done that dear Mith and you are somebody I read well. I needed to put some suspicion on you to get a better read. Please forgive the no substance accusations of you, they were necessary for me to know where you stand. I am leaning innocent now based on your reactions.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Good enough for me.

Dead thread, it sounds like we have a quorum.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Why Nilp, though? Anything about his votes or interactions, or just a general sense of discomfort that he's survived this long?

As a fellow Warg-enthusiast, and my cousin, I am uneasy about him being the 'shot in the dark.'

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Why Nilp, though? Anything about his votes or interactions, or just a general sense of discomfort that he's survived this long?

As a fellow Warg-enthusiast, and my cousin, I am uneasy about him being the 'shot in the dark.'

The same goes for me. I'm honestly concerned about both the vote for Form and the vote for Nilp. They seem rather baseless to me. I know Kath can't return to explain, but could someone enlighten me on why Nilp is perhaps so sinister?

[satansaloser2005]

Also, I just caught Boro's reveal post. That's certainly interesting. Anyone else care to reveal any secrets while we're here?

[Thinlómien]

Well, Nerwen gave us the list of options.

Out of those, morm and Form seem innocent to me.

Kath and Mith have posted too little to judge anything by.

That leaves McCaber, who is a tiny bit fishy. Hard to explain why, but something about him strikes me as not genuine, and it's for example interesting how he got stuck on talking about me and Agan, or how toDay he decided to focus on Lalaith (not his pack's choice so safe ground for analyzing?)

The other person left is Nilp. He just seems too nice and innocent to actually be nice and innocent? I mean, that's how he's wolfed his way through a game before.

Now that I started typing I actually made McCaber sound more suspicious to myself. I may vote him after all.

(Yeah, not going sleep, got stuck discussing the Game of Thrones writers' questionable adaptational choices on tumblr...)


edit: xed with Sally's latter

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm leaning toward voting Form myself. But I'll wait around to see if anyone else offers some bright ideas.