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09-22-2010, 02:00 PM | #641 |
Flame Imperishable
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Well that's just depressing. Three innocents (well, as far as orcs can be) cursed by unknown forces? What's going on?
I'm just going to reread the Day before I comment any further, and hopefully make that vote-list.
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09-22-2010, 02:04 PM | #642 | ||||
Leaf-clad Lady
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Right. I've had a quick look at Nerwen. This is not a proper analysis as I will not even try to report everything she's posted (that would be insane with her over sixty posts). I'm only bringing out a few points from Days 1 and 2 that I found worth notice.
Day 1: Spends most of her time questioning Lottie and phantom, mainly on the subject of phantom and whether or not it makes sense to vote him for rep. (Her almost full concentration on that issue would be eyebrow-raising if it wasn't for the fact that everyone else was doing it too.) Votes Lommy for rep. Quote:
She then considers lynching either Boro or one of the phantom-supporters. Votes: Quote:
Lottie (3) Sally (2) so after her vote it was: Lottie (3) Sally (3) Boro (1) What interests me here is why she voted Sally instead of Lottie. She said this toDay: Quote:
Day 2: Says, twice, that Izzy was the one she expected to find dead. My initial thought was that an elf would never ever say that. My second one was that a cunning one might, if only to create a sense of there being nothing to analyse in the Night-kill. Hmm. Still, I'm more inclined to find this particular comment innocentish. She then proceeds to question phantom about his so-called Seer-reveal, and ends up having a rather long and heated argument with him about it. While I agree with her that the matter certainly needed to be discussed, the extent to which she takes it looks a bit suspicious. The elves don't want the village to analyse them. So what better a way to distract everyone than turn all attention on the phantom? Of course such a big argument is bound to draw some attention to herself as well, but in rather a safer way than the regular analysing and moderately suspecting different people. Votes Shasta for representative. No surprises there. On the second half of Day 2 she provides a sharp analysis on Sally, Lottie and phantom. Also analyses Wilwa: Quote:
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09-22-2010, 02:05 PM | #643 |
Everlasting Whiteness
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So, Rune:
1) Banter. Says we should make phantom work for attention. 2) Likes Legate and Lommy. Legate for sound reasoning and Lommy for being bitter and twisted. A cross Lommy has previously meant a wolvish Lommy, but that's to me, might not be to Rune. 3) Indeed he says that he doesn't think Lommy evil. 4) Votes Lommy Rep. Fair enough given he's focused on her in the last two posts and considers her innocent as a result. 5) 'Here' post. 6) Playing hinting games with phantom about possibly being an SoE ... 'a product of certain historical events'. This is the second time he said this. Maybe that's what was prickling at me. 7) Arguing about not limiting power for Reps. Voting for beliefs is actually pretty much what the Reps have done anyway so this post was a little worried-about-nothing but then he didn't know that at the time. 8) Said Boro's change of playing style didn't feel natural, was surprised at his actions. We know Boro to be innocent now so could be a wolf pushing suspicion at Boro. Likes Foley, Legate (consistent) and Nog. Suspicious of Glirdan, again we now know he's innocent, and Greenie and Eonwe for not committng themselves. 9) 'Gone' post. 10) Continued to argue against Boro. 11) Thought about voting for someone hard to read. Thinks phantom is not particularly suspicious. If evil, and mates with phantom, could be trying to protect him. But of course could be innocent and accidentally defending an Elf or innocent and defending an innocent! Yet another case where only death makes it clear. 12) Defended wilwa, whom we know was innocent, and mentions he supports double lynches. 13) Thinks it unlikely sally would be an Elf given Lottie was one, but says it wouldn't be impossible. Pretty much what everyone was thinking at that point. 14) Replying to Nerwen saying while you might get one bold SoE on day 1 you're unlikely to get two working as a team. 15) List post. Suspects Greenie, Glirdan and sally. So two the same and sally almost an afterthought as he wasn't convinced she'd be an SoE given Lottie was. Maybe he thought she was the Undecided Orc? If considering Rune to be an Elf, I would wonder about his opinions on Eonwe. Think it's a little odd he mentioned voting him as Rep when he's in the 'no idea' list not the 'feeling alright' list. 16) Votes Eonwe. 17) 'Here' post. 18) Understands the lynch though he wouldn't have gone for those people first. Well wilwa was not in his suspicions list so fine, sally was but was third so fair enough. Thinks Foley did fine. 19) Answers Greenie about his 'hope this isn't suspicious' joke. 20) Volunteers himself for Rep. 21) Says he'd have voted for Mira for being puzzling. Hmm, maybe this was it. I think I wondered why he said this when he'd had two people down as suspicious and neither of them was Mira. 22) Then says he's looked at Mira's posts and found nothing suspicious. All seemed a little odd. 23) Now Celuien has suddenly popped up as suspicious. Says she defended sally and Lottie and attacked Boro instead. Umm, Rune also suspected Boro that Day ... though dropped that before Day's end. Heard nothing more about Greenie or Glirdan in this time who were on his actual suspect list. 24) Looked at Inzil, feels he's suspicious but found no reasoning. 25) Said he'd like to see me as Rep. Votes for me. 26) Defends his vote. 27) Says he won't vote phantom or Lommy, and will look at Nerwen, Greenie and Shasta. Well he's looking at the village pretty thoroughly then. So: Think I figured out that uneasy feeling. It's the way he mentions suspects and then seems to totally discard them. Greenie and Glirdan from the first Day for example.
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09-22-2010, 02:07 PM | #644 |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Are any of my fellow reps around? If so, who are you considering for toDay's lynch? (I have no interest in this ending up a four-way draw or something like that.)
EDIT: x-ed with Kath
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09-22-2010, 02:43 PM | #645 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Gruesome Spectre
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While I have some time, let's look at Steve.
Day 1 Quote:
He also there agrees with me about it being better to not vote for rep than make one at random. Quote:
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Day 2 Quote:
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Conclusions? Well, I thought he looked pretty good early on, though he was obviously wrong about Boro. His drawing attention to Lottie could be a point in his favor. His reactions to the phantom have been strange at times, and appear somewhat inconsistant. Now that I look closely, he doesn't seem as innocent as he did earlier. Still, probably not a likely vote for me toDay.
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09-22-2010, 02:52 PM | #646 | |
Shady She-Penguin
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Here and happy to see the influx of comments and analyses. Folwren seems more innocent than ever, and Kath's analysis of Rune made me wary of both of them.
Quote:
PS. If I'm still alive toMorrow, I'm going to run a campaign myself elected as a rep for purely selfish reasons. It seems like I can't be kicked into truly concentrating on wolf-hunting unless I have to vote, which kind of sucks.
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09-22-2010, 02:57 PM | #647 |
Gruesome Spectre
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09-22-2010, 03:05 PM | #648 |
Messenger of Hope
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I only had time to read Greenie's post on Nerwen and in a moment I need to go help may supper...but I wanted to shoot my opinion in on the vote, seeing as Greenie is my rep -
I don't think it's a good idea to lynch Nerwen. Although there are shadows of doubts around here, it is potentially very dangerous to kill her. -- Foley
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09-22-2010, 03:05 PM | #649 |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Whoa. Just saw the time. I've got to be up early tomorrow which means I really really need sleep now. I was hoping to have time to analyse someone else as well and perhaps write a list of some kind - not to mention hear more thoughts from others. Unfortunately I didn't and now I don't. Inzil, since you are around, who do you want to lynch?
EDIT: x-ed with Foley
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09-22-2010, 03:10 PM | #650 |
Flame Imperishable
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Wait, what? Where did that come from?
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09-22-2010, 03:10 PM | #651 | |
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All caught up.
Quote:
edit: x-ed with many edit 2: Gah. Double post, seemingly. Sorry.
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09-22-2010, 03:12 PM | #652 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Quote:
EDIT: x-ed with Steve
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09-22-2010, 03:12 PM | #653 | |
Flame Imperishable
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I was just about to start on the voting list when I saw this:
Quote:
Yes, I did find Boro suspicious, and yes, I thought Izzy might be hiding an Elvish face under her regular, very innocent-looking orcish mask. When I said "It would be a great (and very bold) move for the elves to play," I included phantom as a possible Elf with the two of you, and was trying to suggest that you might be disassociating yourselves from each other in a way that was so obvious that people wouldn't suspect it. And by saying that it would be "very bold" I also meant that it would be a very unlikely possibility. As for "those against him are all good", I didn't ever say that. I actually said, "one of the problems is that it makes me feel like those against him are all good, even though I suspect some for other reasons", meaning that because I disagree with him, it's making me feel like those who disagree with him are good, even though my mind tells me they're not (because I find them suspicious). That's why it's "one of the problems".
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09-22-2010, 03:12 PM | #654 | |
Gruesome Spectre
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Quote:
Actually, I'm only half joking. I go from thinking he can't possibly be an Elf, to seeing visions of him giggling in the shadows as he surveys all the confusion he's caused. I didn't care for Rune's rep-vote for Kath. Yes, he may not have seen where she'd said she wouldn't be around, but what concerned me more was that he didn't seem to have considered voting her until tp brought it up. I'm going to try and look at some others before DL, but those are the ones that stand out at the moment. x/d with Rune and Steve
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09-22-2010, 03:17 PM | #655 |
Odinic Wanderer
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Ehm I am here, sorry for missing most of today, stuff came up.
In response to Kath's post about me: It is not that I totally discard my earlier suspicions, but early in the game they are mostly based on not being able to read people and thus less substantial. Greenie I still don't know what to think of and Glirdan. . . well he Died. I was actually quite confident that I would vote Celuien today unless somebody came up with a very good case against another person, now I am a bit at a loss. The way Steve and Zil posts makes it hard for me to get a read on them, but is it enough for me to vote for one of them? (I will give it some more thought) |
09-22-2010, 03:21 PM | #656 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Quote:
Rune? Like I said I'm really torn about him - he seems both really innocent and really evil at the same time. Not convinced either way. Inzil, what do you think about Nerwen? I might want to try her, but if no one else does it's kind of a waste of a vote - and with only four of us who can vote in the first place, wasting even one vote is a big thing. Also, if no one else is in for lynching Nerwen, I'd prefer to see Rune dead than someone I have an innocent feel of. EDIT: x-ed with Runne, yay!
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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09-22-2010, 03:23 PM | #657 |
Beloved Shadow
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Oh, whatever Inzil. If you consider lynching me then you're either an Elf or not serious about winning.
For the lynch I would like to see the following debated- Green Inzil Shasta Nerwen Legate I would love to see all the Reps rank them in the order that they'd prefer, and I definitely want the candidates to emerge from this list. Given there are five suspects there has to be two that are wrong, meaning the Elves would have at least a couple of clear candidates to push.
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the phantom has posted.
This thread is now important. |
09-22-2010, 03:25 PM | #658 |
Messenger of Hope
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Rune, my dear fellow, Celuien is already dead, so you may as well not bother voting for her, unless you'd like to have us lynch a corpse.
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09-22-2010, 03:27 PM | #659 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
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Okay, a list (this is probably the only way I can really try to think of stuff, if you discount rereading, which I didn't do because I'm a failure and read a book and started writing something random instead...)
Foley - the most innocent person in this cave after me. Says stuff a SoE just wouldn't say plus seems very genuine in her reactions (see the end of yesterDay for example). If she's a SoE I don't really mind losing to her. Greenie - I've started to suspect her (quite randomly) BUT I think last time I played with her I believed her innocent until came the phase when I start getting paranoid bacuse of lack of suspects and then we lynched her and she was innocent. So I have an eerie feeling that history might be repeating itself and she's probably innocent like I said in the beginning. Kath - she's so difficult! I'd love to think she's innocent because I've had such nice (totally game unrelated, of course) chats with her on msn recently but I shouldn't let her sweetness thwart me. She is always a bit of an enigma for me, because even though she says her opinions, she always seems a bit detached from the other people in the game in a weird way. Something in her "easy" opinions disturbs me but then again her analysis of her own suspicion of Rune seemed more like something an innocent would do - a SoE could just be lazy and say "it's a gut feeling" since so many people do that anyway that it's not particularily suspicious. Legate - still thinking he is most likely innocent despite a fishy vote or two. It's the general manner that seems like his innocent self. Like somebody said, he tends to be more "polished" and careful as a wolf. Of course, he might be fooling me completely (which might mean I'm going to cancel all possible plans concerning travelling to the Czech Republic in near future. ) Mira - not around much, thereby no read. We can always pose questions like: wouldn't she be around more if she was a wolf? Or: wouldn't she be more wacky as a wolf? But I can't answer "yes" to these questions without hesitation, so she remains an enigma. I appreciate her effort in the game even though she's now sick, but before she was sick her efforts seemed a bit half-hearted. I wonder if that means being ordo is boring or being SoE makes her lazy to concentrate on wolf hunt. (Or I can come up with several more explanation but I don't like them so much because they don't tell anything about her role... ) Nerwen - I voted her for rep toDay and now I'm wondering if it was smart. I had a feeling she's innocent, and her tone is more like innocent Nerwen than guilty Nerwen. The difference is not big, but innocent Nerwen usually seems more down-to-earth than the slightly dramatic and more bantery wolf Nerwen (if my perception is correct). Greenie's analysis made me slightly worried, though, because it raised some points against her that I had not considered (for example her reactions to the Night kill choices). D-i-f-f-i-c-u-l-t, once again. Phantom - he's either an innocent who's not fooling me or a SoE who is fooling me. Much prefer explanation #1 and think it more probable. I remember, though, one game where he and I were the wolves and we floated neatly unsuspected from Day1 to the end discounting the obligatory "phantom sucks" suspicion on Day1. I could see him floating like that in this game too. Rune - like I and somebody else have said several times, he has had quite an easy and relaxing game this far so it's been difficult to judge him based on his reactions. I truly have no idea about him at the moment. I'd like to believe him innocent since I have no real suspicion towards him but atr this point I can't afford being so lenient. Shasta - has weirdly become my top suspect. I was thinking of him just a while ago and thinking: "What else has he done than argued with phantom, tried to get Sally lynched and buddied Nerwen up?" And I couldn't come up with anything. I could see the scenario so well: a sneaky Shastawolf tries to create no suspicion or extra connections. Everybody knows that he and Sally take contact with each other in ww, that he always wages war with tp and that he has this ww "romance" with Nerwen. Simply his choice of focus seems too easy, and also his strategy: choose one innocent victim to concentrate on, write about phantom so you don't have to write about anything else, buddy up with an innocent who's your friend OR make a convenient voting arrangement with a fellow with a good cover excuse. I also really wonder why Greenie (and Nerwen...?) find him so innocent. Fellow wolves? Steve - Zil's analysis actually made me feel better about him. There's not really anything too bad that would stand out and he's not quite as fishy as I thought. Still, my read on him atm is very lousy. Zil - I have the same problem with him as ever. He seems calm, reasonable, reliable and a a bit cold, and it's hard to see his personal feelings or emotional reactions. (Ok ok maybe I shouldn't be surprised given his RL job. ) I have zero reason to suspect him, and that's disturbing. It's just simply difficult to get anything out of this guy. Hey, yay! See? This made me think! Now I'm happy. I'll summarise for you: Leaning innocent Foley Legate Phantom Difficult Greenie Kath Mira Nerwen Rune Steve Zil Leaning guilty Shasta So, if I assume Shasta is guilty, that still leaves two wolves to find and I think they're from the "difficult" category (well it's quite big anyway). Shasta+Nerwen+Greenie seems a little obvious but not unthinkable. Actually, scratch that. Not sure if Greenie and Nerwen look like fellows at all. Hmm... have to think of the combinations more, partially with the vote tallies in hand. edit: xed with everyone since my last
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09-22-2010, 03:34 PM | #660 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Quote:
Nerwen - possibly my top suspect at the moment, insofar as I can claim to have one. I would like to see her lynched. Inzil - like I said, I'm slightly uneasy about him though with no arguments to base it on, wouldn't mind seeing him lynched. Legate - would be somewhere in my "no idea, maybe leaning innocent" -category, quite honestly I haven't paid that much attention to him. Shasta - I'm still inclined to find him innocent, definitely don't want to lynch him toDay. Green - obviously. Lynching me would be stupid. I'm still considering Rune as well, my vote will in all probability go for either him or Nerwen. (A curious detail: the three I'm most uneasy about are my fellow reps.) EDIT: x-ed with Foley and Lommy
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09-22-2010, 03:36 PM | #661 | |
Gruesome Spectre
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Quote:
x/d with Greenie
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09-22-2010, 03:36 PM | #662 |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
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I just finished reading the thread and I feel I don't have very much to say toDay anyway, as I would really need to stop and think, or go through it once again, but I have to get up early tomorrow again. I think this Day just didn't work out very well for me I have only a few very basic observations, or "homeworks" for myself: I would like to take a look at several people again; Steve, Greenie, Shasta, possibly Kath (though in her case, I am generally skeptical about the outcome, as I have always trouble reading her).
Celuien being modfired and being an Ordo is sort of discouraging, among other things - most of all, since she was the last one on my list of clearer suspects, I am now rather at loss, and with this hour, I feel quite happy for not having to vote toDay. I am really looking forward to see the results of toDay's voting and also to see whom the current Reps are going to vote. They are all people who are closer to the "middle" section of my suspicion list, or the "not so sure" section, like there's been something which has shifted their position in my thoughts lately - like reconsidering to feel a bit better about Rune because of his latter posting, being a bit more suspicious of Greenie while considering her sally-pursuit, or being generally unsure about Nerwen. What I have read during this Day has more or less kept the impressions similar in this way. I am perhaps only a bit more worried about Steve now, and a bit less about Inzil. EDIT: x-ed with Greenie, phantom, etc.
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09-22-2010, 03:36 PM | #663 | ||
Shady She-Penguin
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Quote:
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There seems to be small chance of Shasta getting lynched, which is a pity. Anybody willing to borrow me some lynch-votes? Seriously, out of the people on phantom's list, he seems the best shot by far. If my humble opinion is worth something, don't lynch Legate. Zil/Nerwen/Greenie I'm torn about but I would possibly prefer Greenie... not sure at all. edit: x-posted with the two gents and forgot to mark earlier since logged into Facebook for some stupid reason and forgot about ww for ten minutes... blah!
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09-22-2010, 03:52 PM | #664 |
Messenger of Hope
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Does it have to be those five that phantom listed? I think there must be at least one guilty one in amonst them, but still...most of them look innocent to me. I know I'm not voting, but I wish I were - I feel I'd do a better job today than yesterDay. Harhar.
Okay...I'm going to attempt to make a list and say who I think is guilty and who is not. I can't say why I think these things for a couple reasons - I don't have time and in some people's case, I don't have very much foundation... Probably Innocent Nerwen Inzil Lommy Less certain but leaning towards innocent Shasta Legate Phantom Kath Also less certain, but leaning towards guilty this time Rune Mira I have a guilty feeling about: Greenie Steve Now PLEASE don't freak out about Greenie's name being there. I KNOW I voted for her, but it was only after I voted for her and then started reading more posts (remember, I'm way behind due to Day2) and she started posting more posts that I got a bad, bad, bad feeling about her. I feel something is wrong. I don't have time to go back and figure it out now, but I wanted to put out my list in case any of you reps really cared.
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09-22-2010, 03:53 PM | #665 |
Odinic Wanderer
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I know, that is why I am at a loss. . .
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09-22-2010, 03:54 PM | #666 |
Messenger of Hope
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Ah, right. Missed that. Sorry.
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A young man who wishes to remain a sound atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. - C.S. Lewis |
09-22-2010, 03:56 PM | #667 |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Hmmn. It's 1 AM and I need to be up by eight. Meaning? It's well past my bed-time. As for my vote - I'm still torn between voting Nerwen and voting Runne. I suspect Nerwen more, but I'm not sure any of my fellow reps want to vote her so I might not, either. If nothing drastic has appeared while I'm typing this, I'll vote in my next post and then be off to bed.
EDIT: x-ed with Rune and Foley
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09-22-2010, 03:57 PM | #668 |
Flame Imperishable
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In fact, you jumping on that is making me start to find you suspicious. In fact, maybe my phantom-Zil-Boro triangle wasn't as far-fetched as I'd first thought. Of course, Boro was innocent, but then again, he was the most vocal and outspoken of the three of you, so maybe he was just an innocent that happened to join in?
Looking at the phantom: I've thought him innocent for most of the game, but look at these coincidences:
Of course, other than a few other minor things, this is generally where my suspicion for phantom ends, because he hasn't done anything else to make him look guilty, and in fact many of his posts feel very innocent. Still we all know how cunning he is (or at least professes to be), so I'm sure he could be fooling us. And purposefully/mistakenly missing votes seems very uncharacteristic for phantom (though I admit for both evil or innocent phantom). But not voting (once in a while so that it's not as obvious) would probably be more advantageous for an elf. So let's assume he's evil for the purposes of this post and see how the 'scenario/model' plays out. Moving onto Inzil and the links between the two of them next. edit: x-ed since Lommy's list. edit 2: formatting
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09-22-2010, 03:57 PM | #669 |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Rune, who are you thinking of voting?
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09-22-2010, 03:59 PM | #670 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
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Okay babies, going to sleep.
Please consider Shasta and what I said about him. And please lynch a wolf (although, I know, that's not a very fair request). Good night! edit: xed with baby green
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09-22-2010, 04:03 PM | #671 | ||
Beloved Shadow
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Quote:
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the phantom has posted.
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09-22-2010, 04:04 PM | #672 |
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Also, that was actually half a Day (about 22 hours) later- and everyone was still talking about the phantom.
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09-22-2010, 04:05 PM | #673 |
Odinic Wanderer
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Well, I don't have any top suspects right now.
I could be convinced to vote Zil or Steve, not because I have a good case against them, but because the way they play. Many of their posts are comments on others theories (if my memory is correct), I have a hard time analyse people who play like this. I know it is not necessarily a trademark of a SoE, but it wouldn't be a bad strategy for the either. I am also feeling a bit uneasy about You, Shasta and Nerwen, but for some reason I would like to have closer look you lot. Of course I could be convinced to vote for them if I did not care for my other options. |
09-22-2010, 04:08 PM | #674 |
Odinic Wanderer
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Anybody who thinks that Lommy's thoughts on Shasta are any good?
It sounds reasonable to me, but I haven't had a proper look at him my self. . . |
09-22-2010, 04:10 PM | #675 |
Leaf-clad Lady
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This time I'm really going to sleep. I'm going to go for
++Nerwen++ After all I decided to take the risk and simply vote for the one I find most suspicious. In the end I couldn't justify voting Rune since I really don't have that many arguments against him either. I sincerely hope I'm doing the right thing. EDIT: x-ed with 2xRunne
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09-22-2010, 04:14 PM | #676 |
Beloved Shadow
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Steve- how can you possibly think my not voting Day 1 was a bad thing? It's the only reason an Elf died! I could have easily lynched Sally with my three votes by saying, "I don't want to double-lynch, so I won't vote Boro, and out of Lottie and Sally, I'd say Sally looks the worst. Sorry m'dear." And then bang, Lottie is saved.
As far as missing the Rep vote today, there was nothing I could do. By the time I got back to my computer, the deadline had passed. I was not expecting for my errand to take longer than a couple minutes.
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09-22-2010, 04:31 PM | #677 |
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Well, this was actually meant to be part of the same post as the last, but then I decided to split them, so just assume they're linked as one.
I've been trying to find stuff (good or bad) about Inzil, but the problem is that I can't, because there's not much I can say. He's far too slippery, which is not good at all. There's nothing really that can be taken as a strong sign of innocence or evilness, and the only real way to judge him is to look at his links with other people. That's why I've chosen the phantom. Now, let's assume that he's evil (see last post) and in league with the phantom. Consider these under this light:
He also only once gives out clear suspicions of everyone. On Day 2. The link also continues (Though weaker) throughout the rest of the game, but I'm too tired to look in more detail at the rest right now. Besides, I get the feeling that really, one of them is probably evil, while the other might not necessarily be. If this is the case, I suspect that Inziladun slowly tried to associate himself with phantom, so that he could take him down with him if he looked guilty. Or maybe I'm just over-thinking. edit: fell asleep at my keyboard. x-ed since my last post.
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09-22-2010, 04:33 PM | #678 | ||
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Quote:
Quote:
... and you wouldn't like phantom when he's angry.
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09-22-2010, 04:36 PM | #679 |
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Oh, and sorry. I promise I'll try to do the vote list if I'm still alive toMorrow.
Goodnight.
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09-22-2010, 04:38 PM | #680 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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peace
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