Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, I currently think Mac and Kath are evil together and Sally feels good. So there's that.

[Brinniel]

Sally

Nothing really from her on Day 1, which tells us, well nothing.

Day 2

Originally Posted by Sally

A LIST!
Greenie: No read so far
BG: Getting an innocent vibe
Brinn: Still reeling from her excellence last game, automatic pass for toDay
Form: Yellow light, we'll see what happens the rest of toDay
Kath: Immediately struck me as suspicious and haven't changed my mind
Legate: Yellow light in that I have NO impression and that bothers me
Mac: Suspicious but not my main concern right now, again, more on that later
Nog: Not the mod, Sally, you idiot, pay attention to him
Nilp: ++My beloved, whom I don't suspect for now because he's always like this <3
Pitch: No read at all, but that's typical for him
Rikae: A decent feeling about them at this point, prefer to focus on others
Shasta: Feeling good about him at the moment
Lommy: Safe enough not to vote her, but I don't entirely trust her either

So I think that makes my projected pack for the Day: Form, Kath, Legate, and Mac, and no candidate for cobbler

This is really just vague.

#261 She states that Nog seems innocent and sticks to that enough to later say her vote is to save him. Could go either way, but it reminds me of when Hui stuck his neck out for me last game.

#263 Agrees with Mac on his discomfort with Legate. I already mentioned this makes me doubt all three are wolves.

Votes Kath with no reason behind it. She later stated that she thought Formy was the cobbler, but this would've been an easy way for a wolf to escape the two main bandwagons.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Sally

Brinn's vote logic yesterDay looks very good to me. Granted, if it turns out Form is a wolf, I may have to rethink that (talking about voting him and then going back on it), but I understand where she's coming from; if your top candidate becomes a viable lynch target, you take the opportunity. All in all, I feel good about her.

I also think Pitch's exasperation at BG's gifted ponderings looks solid, and Kath doing the same makes me less suspicious of her by about a smidge. Then again, that could be the frustration of any experienced player regardless of role, so I'm trying not to jump to conclusions.

Lommy suspected me and therefore must be punished! Just kidding. I feel a bit better about her toDay, and though it's selfish, the way she explained her "suspicions" of me (rather, her lack of innocent feelings) strikes me as an innocent Lommy. My suspicion of Form coupled with her vote for him helps, of course.

As for the other Finn sister, I don't have a good read on Greenie at all. The same is true of Shasta, Nilp, and Rikae. I need to work on that.

Then there's the other side of my suspicion.

Form is my top suspect, unsurprisingly. If Form is a wolf, I may have to do some serious reconsidering on people, because yesterDay could have been an extremely smooth operation to save his hide, or Kath's for that matter. Form and Kath. Form and Kath are my top suspects. Let's be fair and not single anyone out.

I'd also consider a lynch of Legate or Mac. I can't find the post where I talked about Mac. I wonder if I ever submitted it?

I do find it strange that she thinks me innocent but might re-evaluate it if Formy is a wolf - then goes on to say he's the most suspicious. With that last sentence I indeed think if she's a wolf, then it's more likely Mac is innocent. I doubt she'd group two packmates together. She does go back and forth on Kath, so maybe wolf-on-wolf?

Originally Posted by Sally

I'll probably vote for Form, unsurprisingly. I still have concerns about Kath, Legate, and Mac, and Rikae's posts toDay have piqued my interest in them, but I'd rather stay on track rather than having surprises this late in the day.

Votes for Formy.

Day 4

Originally Posted by Sally

Good to know I was right on Legate, but bad to know I was right and acted on others instead. What is the phrase? Ah, yes. "Isn't it nice to know a lot? And a little bit not."

I'm still of the solid opinion that Kath could be a wolf. I need to look at her interactions with Legate, which I'll probably do in the morning.

Don't like her first paragraph at all. It's like, "Look, I was right about him all along." But from what I can tell, she only ever mildly suspected Legate. Still pondering the Sally/Kath pack feasibility.

Originally Posted by Sally

Oh my God. I reread the rules after the narration posted and missed the part where he only got to do that once. Well....biscuits and gravy.

Nope, that's fair. Suspect away, because that was stupid of me. I totally forgot about that rule.

I know that some say missing parts of the rules could be a sign of innocence, but a wolf can make mistakes too...or it could be faked. So this tells me nothing.

Conclusions: I think Sally is suspicious. Unlikely Sally/Mac pack, but unclear about others.

I may look at Kath before the end of the Day, but we'll see if I have time.

[satansaloser2005]

The idea of Rikae (now suspecting strongly because of all of the shenanigans) and Mac (already suspected for quite some time now) being wolves together seems a little off to me. I'm not saying Boro would reroll if they came up together, but it would also give them an accidental advantage to be in the same house.

I actually feel almost better about Kath toDay, though I think part of that is because of the other nonsense going on. Still toward the top of my list, but I'd be happy to lynch Mac toDay instead. Then again, both could be wolves! That would be nice, as I'd have had three out of four pegged.

Shasta and Nilp won't be receiving my vote, nor I think will Lommy. Someone would have to come up with a very strong case indeed for me to vote for her.

Pitch is always an enigma for me. If people are right and he's the cobbler, we can't afford to lynch him toDay anyway, so going off other people's suspicions, I'm not inclined to vote for him either.


x'd since my last

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hrm. That last post of Lommy's - I like the washing of the hands, but that conclusion... oof.

[Pitchwife]

sallly! Really! When Mac himself hath spoken, what further need to belabour the point? Who's manipulating and obfuscating now?


The alphabet is as random as anything (unlike, say, Tengwar and Angerthas), which is why Mac's proposal to tie toDay's Medium empowerment to something as random as which player follows which in the alphabet rather than concrete suspicions, likely or unlikely pack constellations etc. didn't and doesn't sit right with me. He's backpedalled now, but it still may have been an attempt by a wolf to manipulate the empowerment while looking super helpful. And if this is so, I could see either of Kath and Lommy as his packmate and the other as the cobbler.


That said, I can live with Rikae's list.

[Thinlómien]

Okay *stops washing hands*

LET'S GO WITH RIKAE'S LIST THEN AND STOP DEBATING.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

sallly! Really! When Mac himself hath spoken, what further need to belabour the point? Who's manipulating and obfuscating now?

I was on a conference call and had the post open, so neener.


Who who the fork are we even lynching?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Can you Rikae and Mac agree on a list since you got us into this mess.

Really?

I tried to fix this mess. Rikae at least was constructive. Pitch and Shasta were criticizing things without offering an alternative!

I don't want to be kneejerk and say one is a cobbler and one is a wolf, but one is a cobbler and one is a wolf!

Originally Posted by Lommy

Brinn / Shasta / Sally pack, anyone?

Shasta very much. Sally maybe. Brinn I find unlikely. I think you're too quick to discard Pitch as a cobbler.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Absolutely not.

++Macalaure

[Thinlómien]

Okay more spoilers from my upcoming posts:

I'm getting really worried about Brinn. (This is gonna slightly rephrase something Rikae said earlier, I believe, but I just made the same observation myself.) She has spent lots of energy analysing things toDay and whether she's looking at who said what about Legate, or what Legate said about others, or randomly analysing Pitchwife, the same people come off as guilty every single time: Kath, Mac and Pitch, with an occasional Rikae or Sally thrown in.

You would think an innocent's posts would have more variation and genuine flipflopping/hesitation, but Brinn seems pretty certain.

Which makes me think Brinn's a wolf trying to lay grounds for voting and make sure a not-wolf gets lynched.

Which would likely make Pitch, Kath and Mac innocent, and Shasta whom Brinn scarcely mentions except to say Greenie maybe dreamt of innocent!Shasta a likely fellow wolf. The remaining wolf would then be either Sally or Rikae.


edit: xed with Shasta and Mac

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Brinn / Shasta / Sally pack, anyone? Nicely flying under our radars the whole time? Scarcely mentioning each other? It suddenly makes a lot of sense to me.

Thoughts?

I dunno. Shasta has his voting record speaking against him, but his posts toDay ring innocent to me. Sally is always difficult to read for me, so I wouldn't rule anything out. I admit I haven't looked near enough at Brinn so far to come to a qualified conclusion.

[Kath]

I quite like the irony in Lommy, who was the first person to modify the list, washing her hands of the whole thing and claiming everybody else were the ones to mess it up.

It's still between Brinn, Rikae, sally and Shasta for me. That's not in order of suspicion as I now need to go look at them.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I wasn't criticizing anything, I was giving a warning.

[Thinlómien]

Sheesh Kath, I suggested a small edit something like 6h before the deadline. Absolutely different from these last hours' mess.

That vote of Shasta's I'm not too happy with. We cannot afford to mislynch toDay. I think an innocent would not be so quick to vote someone toDay without weighing their decision.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Sheesh Kath, I suggested a small edit something like 6h before the deadline. Absolutely different from these last hours' mess.

That vote of Shasta's I'm not too happy with. We cannot afford to mislynch toDay. I think an innocent would not be so quick to vote someone toDay without weighing their decision.

Okay, Lommy/Mac for sure. Who's the third, do we think? Kath?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I wasn't criticizing anything, I was giving a warning.

Without a suggestion on how to fix it, that amounts to the same.

[satansaloser2005]

I have to vote very soon, unfortunately. I have a break coming up shortly, but then I will need to buckle down and get some stuff done at work.


x'd with Mac

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Without a suggestion on how to fix it, that amounts to the same.

In your opinion, one has to have a solution on-hand to bring attention to a problem?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Brinn / Shasta / Sally pack, anyone? Nicely flying under our radars the whole time? Scarcely mentioning each other? It suddenly makes a lot of sense to me.

Any of them could be wolves but I don't see any particular case for all together (have been considering Brinn/Lommy/? or Brinn/Shasta/?).

I guess a list:

Red:

Nobody. Everyone at this point has some non-wolfish points in their favor. I'm really worried about voting wrong today.

Yellow:

Brinn - like I said before, I find the way she seemed to be steering the village early toDay a bit unnerving - a little too sure about Lommy and Shasta.

Lommy - also unnerving, was partially her trust of Brinn which, when I mentioned it, she dropped, which kind of makes it worse.

Sally - Something about the way she backed off after questioning seems more cautious than her usual self, plus I feel like she's been getting suspiciously little attention, as though she was a known innocent, which she is not.

Pitch - Quite touchy, and I don't remember him being that way in past games.

Yellow-green:

Shasta - I do consider him a possible innocent dream, but also quite possible he is not, and I have actually been getting cobblerish vibes from him. It was weird how he went after me for something based on a quote that had the answer in it - I'm thinking, he knew what he wanted to say before he read it and didn't read it.

Kath - Like I said, I think Greenie's survival points to her not being a wolf. Not 100% but it's something to go on at least.

Mac - he thought I was the seer. I mean, it could be a bluff, but it looked genuine to me.

Green:

Nilp: If there were another real BH I assume they would have stepped up.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Okay, Lommy/Mac for sure. Who's the third, do we think? Kath?

I wanted to say "I'd much rather be on the same team with Kath and Mac than in the wolf team you have with Brinn" but I'm afraid such a statement might make a subject of ridicule when the game is over.

To be fair I really am not sure at all who is what and I'm suffering.

But I obviously trust Nilp. Then probably Kath, then Mac and Rikae. Sally and Pitchwife are ?? to me. Shasta and Brinn look the worst at the moment.

It's interesting how this seems to be splitting into some kind of camps. Innocents keep your eyes open. Fur will start to show soon.


edit: xed with the last 4

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Rikae - I didn't go after you, I asked you a question. You answered. I was satisfied with that answer, so I moved on.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

In your opinion, one has to have a solution on-hand to bring attention to a problem?

Honestly, if the alternative is an even bigger problem, then yes. Anything but nothing.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I wanted to say "I'd much rather be on the same team with Kath and Mac than in the wolf team you have with Brinn" but I'm afraid such a statement might make a subject of ridicule when the game is over.

To be fair I really am not sure at all who is what and I'm suffering.

But I obviously trust Nilp. Then probably Kath, then Mac and Rikae. Sally and Pitchwife are ?? to me. Shasta and Brinn look the worst at the moment.

It's interesting how this seems to be splitting into some kind of camps. Innocents keep your eyes open. Fur will start to show soon.


edit: xed with the last 4

I get me looking the wurst (ha!) to you as I've made myself your probable designated mis-execute, but Brinn? Nah. She looks the best of anyone, IMO.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Honestly, if the alternative is an even bigger problem, then yes. Anything but nothing.

So I should have kept quiet about an issue I think could lose us the game if I don't have an ironclad way to fix it?

Absolutely not.

[satansaloser2005]

Guuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuys. We've decided how to communicate with the dead. Drop the subject for now so we can make a correct lynch.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That discussion is nothing but a distraction at this point.

If Mac and I were both good, my vote would have been jumped on by now. It's safe to say one of us is evil, at this point.

[satansaloser2005]

Well, I trust Shasta. Not necessarily his judgement (on everyone at least), but I agree with him here, so let's put my money where my big ol' mouth is. The odds of Mac being a wolf outweigh my current suspicions of Kath.


++Mac


x'd since my last

[Macalaure]

I don't like the mounting suspicion of Brinniel too much and will not add my vote to it, just so y'all are aware.

And Shasta, come on now...

Originally Posted by me

Anything but nothing

Originally Posted by Shasta

ironclad way to fix it

Originally Posted by Shasta

If Mac and I were both good, my vote would have been jumped on by now.

That I actually agree with.

(edit: crossed with Sally, now that's just great there...)

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nilp: If there were another real BH I assume they would have stepped up.

If the cobbler were smart, they would have done it and gotten Nilp lynched. Guess we don't have a very bright cobbler.

[Thinlómien]

Gonna have a look at this as the wolves are unlikely to go wolf-on-wolf toDay if they can avoid it. Ignoring Nilp because I have no reason to doubt his claim.

Brinn
- analyses Shasta as innocent based on Greenie's posts
- suspects Kath based on Legate's guilt
- explains Sally's posts to Rikae
- also thinks Rikae is leaning innocent based on Legate's posts
- lists Kath, Mac, Pitch and Sally as possible wolves
- asks Mac his interpretation about Greenie's dreams
- suspects Pitch, Kath, Mac and Sally based on what they said about Legate
- chooses to analyse Pitch. Comes out with the suspicion of Pitch/Kath or Pitch/Rikae

Rikae
- mentions Shasta and herself and Nilp as possible innocent dreams; vaguely exonerates Shasta based on this
- questions Sally aggressively
- thinks Kath looks innocent because a wolfpack with Kath would have killed Greenie sooner
- lists Mac, Pitch, Sally and Brinn as possible wolves based on what they said about Legate
- points out Brinn's boss lady moves and finds her conviction of Shasta's innocence and Kath's guilt worrisome

Sally
- suspects Kath
- wary of Rikae but not in a committed way
- side note: was confused about the beast hunter rules. Would a wolf really be?? And would a wolf Sally pretend to be? I think no and yes.

Mac
- undecided about Rikae and Sally based on Form interactions
- suspicious of Shasta and to a lesser degree of Pitch and Kath based on Form interactions
- trusting of Brinn based on Form interactions
- admits to hoping Shasta would not come out looking innocent in an analysis
- says Shasta and Rikae are possible innocent dreams of Greenie
- says Kath is a possible guilty dream of Greenie's but dismisses the thought immediately
- corrects Brinn misquoting him
- says if the wolf pack includes Kath then they treated her and Legate differently
- accuses Shasta of lack of attentivity/ reading comprehension (ok this sounds harsh and it wasn't, but that's the drift)

Kath
- doesn't understand why people (for example Brinn) keep associating her with Pitch
- thinks Mac, Sally and Rikae most likely co-wolves of Legate
- thinks Shasta and Pitch look like relatively plausible co-wolves of Legate
- thinks Brinn looks fairly innocent based on Legate-interactions
- discusses the numbers with Shasta

Pitch
- wary of Rikae's seer pretension
- criticises Mac's communication scheme

Shasta
- thinks Mac's suspicion of him looks fabricated, disagrees with him nitpicking over my post
- says Kath sounds like a defensive wolf
- thinks Kath might be the cobbler instead of Pitch
- originally likes Mac's voting model, then does a legate 180
- flipflops on whether Kath is a possible seer-dreamed wolf
- questions Rikae's suspicions of me
- disagrees with Rikae about Brinn looking innocent over Legate's posts

Ok this is end of page 14 and I've got to stop here, runing out of time. But everything after that should be in recent memory...

[Thinlómien]

Did I just say something about Sally-Shasta?

[satansaloser2005]

And with that I have to go for now.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm getting really worried about Brinn. (This is gonna slightly rephrase something Rikae said earlier, I believe, but I just made the same observation myself.) She has spent lots of energy analysing things toDay and whether she's looking at who said what about Legate, or what Legate said about others, or randomly analysing Pitchwife, the same people come off as guilty every single time: Kath, Mac and Pitch, with an occasional Rikae or Sally thrown in.

You would think an innocent's posts would have more variation and genuine flipflopping/hesitation, but Brinn seems pretty certain.

You know Lommy, not everyone flip flops like you.

I've stated before that I think there are at least two wolves among Pitch, Sally, Mac, and Kath. So why wouldn't I analyze them as opposed to those I think are more likely innocent? I started with Pitch and Sally because I find them most suspicious. I'd love to get to the other two, but I'm not sure I have time. With toDay's events, I'm thinking I should be taking a look at you too.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Shasta - I do consider him a possible innocent dream, but also quite possible he is not, and I have actually been getting cobblerish vibes from him.

I believe if the seer dreams the cobbler, they will only see them as an ordo. So both is possible.

[Rikae]

Between Shasta and Mac I trust Shasta less, but really, they could both be innocent and I would really rather go for someone from my "yellow" list.

Shasta's point doesn't really stand given how Sally (more suspicious than either of them in my eyes) jumped on his vote.

[Thinlómien]

I'm very wary of Pitch who has scarcely taken any sides toDay in anything. Except what voting system makes sense or not. An innocent would at least be trying to find the wolves.


edit: xed with Rikae and Brinn

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lommy

- says Shasta and Rikae are possible innocent dreams of Greenie
- says Kath is a possible guilty dream of Greenie's but dismisses the thought immediately

Just quick since I feel misrepresented here.

Yes, Shasta and Rikae are possible, but far less likely than Lottie and Nilp.
And I was going along posts as I wrote mine, and for a while Kath looked like a possible dreamt-of wolf, but as I continued I started to find it unlikely.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

You know Lommy, not everyone flip flops like you.

Any innocent should reconsider their opinions toDay because there might not be toMorrow.


edit: xed with Mac

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Between Shasta and Mac I trust Shasta less, but really, they could both be innocent and I would really rather go for someone from my "yellow" list.

Shasta's point doesn't really stand given how Sally (more suspicious than either of them in my eyes) jumped on his vote.

Happened after I made that point, as it stands. If Sally was a wolf and Mac not, she could have just said so in any case.

[Macalaure]

I was going to vote for Shasta, who is suspected by some but not all, but now you're forcing me into self-preservation mode and I don't like it.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Just quick since I feel misrepresented here.

Yes, Shasta and Rikae are possible, but far less likely than Lottie and Nilp.
And I was going along posts as I wrote mine, and for a while Kath looked like a possible dreamt-of wolf, but as I continued I started to find it unlikely.

Sorry if I summarised it badly, what you say is how I read it. But I left Lottie and Nilp out of the summary bc they're not relevant right now.