WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Loslote]

Ah, this time I actually managed to finish a Lommy analysis. Here we go:

Post 1: Summary. I've already looked at this post, so I'm not going to spend much time on it.

Post 2: Suggests the possibility of a Nog-Roa collaboration.

Post 3: Wonders more about the Nog-Roa collaboration; says that they wouldn't attack each other on flimsy reasoning if they were both innocent. (Um, Lommy, have you ever seen Roa and Nog not attack each other as ordos? It's almost traditional.) Suspects Nog, Roa, Nienna, and Mnemo.

Post 4: Says that she still thinks the Nog-Roa thing was staged; says she won't vote them because that seems too drastic. Says she might vote Nienna or Mnemo instead, but she doesn't have much reason.

Post 5: Doesn't want to vote Mnemo because Eomer's vote for her looks bandwaggonish; thinks Nog is panicing; suspects Nienna.

Post 6: Complains about the time.

Post 7: Says a vote for Nienna would be 'throwaway'; deliberates between Nog and Mnemo.

Post 8: Says Mac's last post was suspicious.

Post 9: Says Inzil doesn't seem too bad; votes Mnemo. (Wolf on wolf?...might be pushing it.)

Post 10: Says Mnemo looks worse than Inzil or Mac; says the rest of the Day (two minutes at this point) would be chaotic.

Post 11: Asks about the 4-4 tie; apoligizes for xing with Mr. Mod.

Post 12: Thinks Mac is innocent; thinks Shasta and Nienna look bad; thinks Inzil looks good; thinks Mnemo looks badish; grumps about the no-kill situation; says Roa leaving might be good because we have a definite ordo who was in the thick of arguments; thinks Nog looks suspicious; asks for someone to accuse her so she can get into the game;

(This could be wolvish, sort of a "Oh, I'm not that interested in the game, I must be a ordo, and have no role, which is why I can't get involved!" thing.)

doesn't know what to think of me; reiterates that she feels uninvolved.

Post 13: Thinks sally's innocent but Mnemo's not; thinks Morsul is innocent; thinks Boro's innocent.

Post 14: Mostly banter; says that wolves "don't suspect" the most people.

Post 15: Says 'someone' is jumpy, then says she xed with 'everybody, so I don't know who she was refering to. Lommy, care to explain?

Post 16: Banter with Mnemo.

Post 17: Doesn't want to lynch herself, Boro, me, or Inzil; wouldn't be sorry to lynch Pitchie or Mnemo.

Post 18: Votes Mnemo.

Post 19: Here she switches her positions entirely. Suddenly she's suspicious of Mac, but not of Nog or Mnemo. Where'd that come from?

Post 20: Says she'll be around; says she wouldn't mind if I were lynched but wouldn't be surprised if I were innocent; thinks Wilwa's innocent.

Post 21: Thinks Wilwa is slightly creepy; thinks Boro's innocent.

Post 22: Says Mac and Shasta have good points; notes that Mnemo's in the lead.

Post 23: Doesn't have time to reread; thought I was guilty and is confused by my reveal; thinks Nienna's voting might be wolfish; thinks Morsul's self-vote is weird, but makes sense by his logic and is not wolfish; says she didn't suspect Mnemo much on Day 1; suspects Nienna, Sally, and Shasta most.

Post 24: Doesn't suspect: herself, Greenie, Boro, me, Pitchie, Nerwen, Bes, and Morsul; Suspects: Eomer, Sally, Nienna, Mac, Shasta, Wilwa, Brinn, and Nog.

Post 25: Doesn't think that Sally's jump on Wilwa was bad, but thinks she's desperate to avoid lynching.

Post 26: Asks what was wrong about 'cathegories'.

Post 27: Thinks Shasta isn't on enough and spends too much of his time defending himself rather than wolf-hunting; thinks Brinn might be a wolf and Nienna innocent.

Post 28: Banter about the 'cathegory' thing; thinks Sally's trying to hard to be nice.

Post 29: Thinks Shasta's last minute list was suspicious, but the list itself was fine; votes Nienna because she (Nienna) was the best off the candidates, but she (Lommy) wouldn't mind if Wilwa died instead.

Post 30: Banter about the voting tie.

Post 31: Admits that Nienna was probably innocent after her death is assured; she seems to have gotten this from the fact that Nienna was, in fact, lynched? I'm not following that one...

All in all, I do think Lommy's probably another wolf, and I'm still suspicious of Bes, but I"m not going to analyze him again.

[wilwarin538]

Well.....I'm grateful it wasn't me who was lynched (and was honestly surprised to come home and see that I wasn't), but I hate that I was a part of the Nienna lynch. But it is good to know that today will be more useful, even if Pitch ends up innocent then we know who to go for tomorrow. Thank you Lottie.

Now Boro, I am a fabulous dancer, but I don't think I'm gonna bother. It's not getting me anywhere, and it's making me think we may just be the next NogRoa, just two extremely stubborn innocents who won't give in. Though if you end up succeeding and getting me lynched and you're a wolf, I'm never trusting you again.

Don't have much more time tonight, just wanted to make my presence known quickly, but I have the whole day off tomorrow so I'll be around quite a bit.

[Loslote]

Summarizing Greenie's posts:

Post 1: Thinks the discussion/squabble over lynching sensible people is senseless (very sensible of her); doesn't suspect Lommy, Brinn, Boro, or Nog; vaugely suspects Roa, Morsul, Inzil, and Nerwen.

Post 2: Says that voting records are helpful even if there aren't bandwagoning wolves.

Post 3: Appreciates the discussion, but advises people to calm down; doesn't agree with Nog (or understand what his point was); agrees with Lommy that innocentRoa and innocentNog wouldn't attack each other with no evidence; corrects Boro on what Nog really said; doesn't think Roa Awolf would purposefully mistake the number of wolves; doesn't think a cobblerNog would act the way he was acting.

Post 4: Thinks Boro, Lommy, Eomer, Pitchie, Brinn, and Mac are probably innocent; has no idea about Inzil, me, Nienna, Sally, Nerwen, Roa, Bes, Shasta, Wilwa, and Kehra; is wary of Mnemo, Nog, and Morsul.

Post 5: Says that Lommy's list isn't non-helpful.

Post 6: Doesn't know what to think about Nog; suspects Mnemo, but doesn't have time to do a proper analysis.

Post 7: Banter with Eomer.

Post 8: Votes Mnemo.

Post 9: Says that Nog is implying that if someone doesn't see what he sees, they are not an ordo.

Post 10: Says she chose to vote Mnemo instead of Nog because she wanted to give him more time to make sense; thinks Mnemo's post is weird; doesn't know what to think about Pitchie, Shasta, or me; wants to trust Boro and Nerwen.

Post 11: Banter with Lommy; sugests that Lommy could be wolf-on-wolf ing; doesn't know what to think about Mnemo, but still suspects her; corrects Boro - she didn't jump on Morsul, just disagree with him; admits that she may have jumped on Nog; banter.

Post 12: Doesn't suspect: Boro, Eomer, Brinn, Mac, and Lommy; has no idea: Inzil, Morsul, Pitchie, Nienna, Sally, Nog, Nerwen, Bes, Shasta, Wilwa, Kehra; is wary of: Mnemo and me.

Post 13: Asks Eomer and Sally for clarification on their posts.

Post 14: Warns that she'll probably vote soon and then study/go to bed.

Post 15: Votes Mnemo.

Post 16: Says she's here and reading.

Post 17: Doesn't suspect: Boro, me, Morsul, Mac, Lommy, and Nerwen; no idea about: Brinn, Nerwen, Nog, Bes, and Wilwa; is wary of: Eomer, Pitchie, Sally, and Shasta.

Post 18: Notes that Sally's jump on Wilwa looks opportunistic; says she'll probably vote Eomer, Sally, Pitchie, or Shasta.

Post 19: Thinks Eomer looks really suspicious; is willing to vote Wilwa, but wants to vote Eomer, Sally, Pitchie, or Shasta.

Post 20: Thanks Nienna for the vote count; votes Sally.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

À propos, I'm tempted to vote Bes for his vote against our only chance of a Seer in this game, which if not furry is still silly. It just might be crass newbieness, I don't know - leave him be till tomorrow? If Lottie dreams him toNight, we'll be wiser.

This kind of makes me not suspect Bes as much. It looks like Pitchwolf was trying to hint that I should dream about Bes, when my dreaming Bes wouldn't really have offered much to work with, other than his own role. Hmm...anyway,

++Pitchie

[Nogrod]

So, it looks like a simple matter then Today.

We lynch Pitch and if he's a wolf then it's two down. If he's not, then we lynch Lottie the next Day and we are either two wolves down or just one wolf and an evil additional role.

If it is the first thing, then yay Lottie! Interesting pick and well done! *bows*


But even if the script is there for toDay, let's not waste a good Day just sleeping over it.

[Nogrod]

Talking of Mr. Agreeable... there's quite little he suspected and thus there's probably quite little to read from his posts - which doesn't mean we should just not check his posting as well. We should actually read closely what he has said of other people. But I think it might be even more enlightening to see how others related to him - especially when there was something like a suspicion on him which then suddenly disappeared. So how did it actually fade? I remember myself suspecting him but soon realising basically no one suspected him anymore and then I decided to focus on others - but was it just his sweet-talking as Mr. Agreeable or were there anything outside of what he said himself that triggered the change?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Talking of Mr. Agreeable... there's quite little he suspected and thus there's probably quite little to read from his posts - which doesn't mean we should just not check his posting as well. We should actually read closely what he has said of other people. But I think it might be even more enlightening to see how others related to him - especially when there was something like a suspicion on him which then suddenly disappeared. So how did it actually fade? I remember myself suspecting him but soon realising basically no one suspected him anymore and then I decided to focus on others - but was it just his sweet-talking as Mr. Agreeable or were there anything outside of what he said himself that triggered the change?

Is this innocent or Nog saying "I suspected Pitchwolf! I must be innocent!"? I can't tell, but I don't think Nog is one of the two wolves left.

I do think Lommy is one. The others I find somewhat suspicious are Sally, Wilwa, and Eomer. Eomer could easily be moved down to "unsure", though. The only reason he's up there at all is because he's slipped right under my radar, and I suddenly realized that I keep giving him the 'sensible' pass. *sigh*

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So I've been trying to analyize Pitch for the past half hour and the site won't let me go to his posts. Curiouser and curiouser... looks like I'll have to do it the hard way.

Ctrl-F, please be my friend. *sigh*

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Is this innocent or Nog saying "I suspected Pitchwolf! I must be innocent!"? I can't tell, but I don't think Nog is one of the two wolves left.

Well, I was merely illustrating the fact that we all (myself included) fell silent on him after some quite widespread suspicion earlier... well at least I thought there was some general concern with him. So I think the interersting thing is to plunge back there and see how it died out - and what was it in the first place.

I'll try to do that before Lommy and Greenie come from the party they're in.

Originally Posted by Shasta

So I've been trying to analyize Pitch for the past half hour and the site won't let me go to his posts. Curiouser and curiouser...

It must be an evil curse of somekind...

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well, I was merely illustrating the fact that we all (myself included) fell silent on him after some quite widespread suspicion earlier... well at least I thought there was some general concern with him. So I think the interersting thing is to plunge back there and see how it died out - and what was it in the first place.

Okay, that makes sense - and I do get your point. My suspicions were basically "He looks bad. Oh, look, a butterfly!"

[Pitchwife]

WHAT???

This is what comes of me thinking she were genuine???

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

WHAT???

This is what comes of me thinking she were genuine???

Aww. Look at poor Pitchie, trying to refute my dream. Silly, silly Pitchie.

And you know, I wouldn't have dreamed you if you hadn't tried to hint that I should dream of Bes. Just pointing that out.

[Macalaure]

Pitchwife a wolf? Very good. Let's get the pitchforks and lynch him!

Greenie dead. Not surprising. Everybody thought she was innocent. Analysis due.

And now what in Arda was that yesterDay? I wish we could triple-lynch Pitch, Wilwa, and Shasta toDay and be done with it. Let's lynch Sally, too, to be on the safe side.

Well, maybe not. There had to be at least 5 or 6 six wolves in that voting yesterDay.

I predict a relatively boring Day. There will be some discussion about whether we can really trust Loslote, but the majority won't doubt her or conclude that Pitch's death is the best way to find out. There will be some analysis of the lynchee, the voting, and the kill, but since there's no urgency, there won't be any heated debate. Obviously there will be no heated voting either, and unless we find something groundbreaking, our prime suspects tomorrow will still be Wilwa and Sally. Let's try to make it interesting anyway.

[Boromir88]

Pitchers(o' ice), you get to have all the fun by being a known wolf for the day. I've had that pleasure before, and I have to tell you we go much easier on the wolves who co-operate. So, give up you're other two buds and we'll give you a nice, quick, death.

On another note, my participation for the upcoming week is going to be considerably less and vary from day to day.

Congrats Lottie, nice choice, he would have been a tough wolf to get because of Mnemo's vote. I'm going to do what I did on Mnemo yesterday, only this time it'll be on Pitch.

[Bes]

I don't have much time at the moment(Dinner should be arriving soon, and I have cleaning to do.), but I didn't realize that the Ranger doesn't actually die when they protect someone who gets attacked in the night. I've still got a lot of basic learning to do, it seems.

[Bes]

Bolding mine:

Originally Posted by Loslote

Aww. Look at poor Pitchie, trying to refute my dream. Silly, silly Pitchie.

And you know, I wouldn't have dreamed you if you hadn't tried to hint that I should dream of Bes. Just pointing that out.

... Wait. So a seer chooses who to dream about? Like, even if they're a real seer? Now I'm just confused. Damning evidence we would have had anyway aside, how does this make a seer more useful than, well, anyone else?

Edit: I thought of how that could work reliably about a second after posting. You PM Legate and get your answer, yay or nay, that way I assume?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Bes

I don't have much time at the moment(Dinner should be arriving soon, and I have cleaning to do.), but I didn't realize that the Ranger doesn't actually die when they protect someone who gets attacked in the night. I've still got a lot of basic learning to do, it seems.

Might be playing up the newbie card, but what with Pitchie's 'suggestion' I'm more willing to believe that Bes really is just a newbie, not a wolf. Still, he's one to keep an eye on.

EDIT: xed with Bes

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Bes

... Wait. So a seer chooses who to dream about? Like, even if they're a real seer? Now I'm just confused. Damning evidence we would have had anyway aside, how does this make a seer more useful than, well, anyone else?

Edit: I thought of how that could work reliably about a second after posting. You PM Legate and get your answer, yay or nay, that way I assume?

Yes, that's basically it. I pm a name to Mr. Mod and he pms me back with their role.

[Macalaure]

I don't mean to criticise those who want to analyse Pitch, and I'm aware that I'm contradicting my comment about a boring Day, but aren't you counting your chicken before they're hatched? All your work could, in theory, be for nothing.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Pitchalysis

(I don't know how to link posts, so forgive me. They're numbered, though. I skipped over all the banter.)

#27 (Mac) - "Pitch gives me an innocent feel, for some reason." Interesting, considering he's said nothing but banter up to this point.

#35 (Boro) - Clarifies a suspicion of Pitch based on a Captain Obvious moment.

#51 (Pitch) - "I agree about not lynching reasonable people, especially not those who have made an effort to turn this into a serious discussion - which would be Roa, Mnemo and Boro, most notably.
" Roa left the game as an innocent and Mnemo's a dead wolf. What does this say about Boro, I wonder?

#57 (Mac) - Mentions that Pitch's comment about the Boro-reasonableness-versus-unreasonableness debate "might be" suspicious.

#58 (Lommy) - Is inclined to like Pitch for being agreeable and sensible, but wonders if he's not too agreeable. A rather nice fence-sit, in my opinion.

#91 (Nog) - Calls Pitch "one of the most dangerous wolves there are" because of his tendency to slip under the radar.

#102 (Pitch) - Thinks Boro ought to get a break, as he's "stirring the pot". Also considers him to be dodgy (I'm nullifying the obvious qualifier here).

#106 (Pitch) - Notes Mac's use of double standards.

#108 (Mnemo) - "Might" vote for Pitch because he feels a little "off" (says the same for Inzil). Typical wolvish distancing.

#112 (Mac) - Brings Pitch down from "innocent" to "unsure". Interesting.

#120 (Pitch) - Mentions that Morsul looks rather innocent.

#127 (Pitch) - Says a lot without saying much. Notes that Eomer makes more good points than anyone else mentioned in the post (Lommy, Greenie, Brinn, and myself). Also notes that Nerwen seems to be acting differently than usual... and then qualifies it.

#128 (Mnemo) - More wolvish distancing. Says she'll vote for Pitch or Inzil.

#133 (Eomer) - Puts Pitch in the "Will probably vote for one of" category, along with six other people.

#139 (Mac) - Puts Pitch (and Mnemo!) in the "I would like to avoid voting" category. For a Mac who's won by sacrificing his wolf partners, this seems strange for a Macwolf to do, but I wouldn't put it past him (oh no, qualifying is becoming contagious!)

#150 (Pitch) - Pushes Nogrod as having the secret role. Why?

#155 (Mac) - Flipflops on Pitch again, seeing him as innocent.

#158 (Nogrod) - Notes that both Inzil and Pitch both are being "careful".

#162 (Pitch) - votes Mac for "double standards, general slipperyness, plus the flip-flopping Zil pointed out."

#192 (Mnemo) - More distancing. "I need to take a closer look at Pitch and Inzil today."

#198 (Pitch) - A few things. First, Pitch doesn't get Boro's comment about Inzil and Mac not being gifted. Doesn't want to assume anything about Inzil and Mac. Secondly, interacts with Mac, wanting to know about his feelings about Inzil (also mentions Mnemo here).

#205 (Mnemo - Subtly backs up Pitch on the subject of gifteds not necessarily revealing when up for a lynch. I wonder if they weren't setting each other up for a reveal of some kind, or at least giving themselves fodder to contest a reveal later should it happen.

#207 (Nogrod) - Calls Pitch's vote for Mac into question.

#213 (Pitch) - Says something I find amusing, in hindsight: "I rather prefer staying out of Day 1 bandwagons." Hence his vote for Mac (third of four). Right.

#217 (Mac) - Says he would like to take a closer look at Pitch and Mnemo. Interesting...

#233 (Nogrod - "Mac and Pitch are not both wolves." I have a problem with statements like this. They're far too absolute.

#273 (Lommy) - "Nogrod has quite good points against Pitchie, but I still wonder about him too." Lommy, when you say "him", which "him" are you referring to? Pitch or Nog? Also, has both Mnemo and Pitch in her "Leaning guilty" group.

#274 (Mac) - Uncomfortable with suspecting Pitch if other people are going to do the same. A rather odd comment.

#313 (Mac) - Grants Pitch more innocence. Mac, you flip-flop on Pitch a lot.

#334 (Eomer) - Notes that he didn't want to vote Pitch (or Brinn or Lommy).

#343 (Pitch) - Starts to jump on me for my vote for Inzil, butting into a conversation between Morsul and Nienna.

#345 (Morsul) - Agrees with Pitch against me.

#350 (Lommy) - Thinks there's something fishy about Pitch.

#356 (Nogrod) - "Some of Pitch's posting looks odd and over-careful."

#359 (Sally) - Puts Pitch in her "Possible wolves" column. I think this is the first time she's even mentioned Pitch.

#360 (Pitch) - Notes that voting to save someone by giving someone else their second or third vote doesn't look innocent (referring to Nienna and myself). Also thinks my vote for Nerwen was "voting those who're too reasonable". Um, what?

#363 (Wilwa) - First time she's mentioned Pitch, calls him "iffy" after a quick skim and might vote for him. Interesting. Notes that her vote will probably be between Boro and Pitch.

#372 (Nogrod) - Considering a Pitch vote for being too nice.

#381 (Wilwa) - "I've decided it would be best for me to stick with Boro as previously stated." Is this a wolf not wanting to be accused of a wolf-on-wolf vote?

#386 (Sally) - "Pitch: another bad vibe, to be honest;" Interesting.

#395 (Pitch) - Clearly defends Mac against Morsul which I find odd.

#416 (Bes) - First time Bes has really mentioned Pitch. Suspects Mac, Pitch, and Nogrod all equally.

#426 (Eomer) - Puts "innocent?" by Pitch because of his vote for Mnemo.

#427 (Pitch) - Refutes Eomer and says his vote was safe. (Eomer clarifies in the next post - he meant his Day 1 vote). Qualifies the rest of his conclusions.

#438 (Nogrod) - Mnemo's vote for Pitch flips what he thinks about Pitch - "more innocent than not". Pitch looks rather good for his vote for Mnemo.

#440 (Eomer) - Has Pitch firmly in the "Innocent" column. Interesting.

#444 (Pitch) - Flip-flops his stance on my vote for Nerwen Day 1, even though he's replying to something Nogrod said about someone completely different.

#451 (Pitch) - "Of the Lottie-votes, I'd say Brinn looks the most innocent to me."

#460 (Mac) - Vacillates on Pitch before finally finding him innocent on account of the wolves' kill choice of Inzil.

#461 (Wilwa) - As a side affect of her Mnemo analysis, thinks Pitch to be innocent.

#476 (Nerwen) - Seems to be a general consensus; thinks Mnemo's vote for Pitch was unlikely to be wolf-on-wolf.

#481 (Mac) - Feels quite good about Pitch, in both situations.

#483 (Lommy) - Pitch is "probably innocent". Dang, he certainly had it made before Lottie's reveal.

#497 (Wilwa) - Is suddenly wary of Pitch again, mostly after being called on it by Boro. A flustered wolf? Immediately puts him in the "most uneasy" column.

#517 (Pitch) - Finds Bes's vote for Lottie suspicious.

#518 (Sally) - Agrees with Pitch regarding Bes. I dunno, such stout backing up doesn't lead me to think wolf-on-wolf - Sally's smarter than that.

#519 (Boro) - Applaud's Pitch's lack of agreeableness in posting an alternate perception, that Lottie was an attempt to save Mnemo.

#538 (Pitch) - Retracts his earlier statement of Brinn's innocence, and tries to push Lottie to dream of Bes. To me, this points towards Bes's innocence.

#539 (Lommy) - Is quite convinced that Pitch is an ordo.

---------------

Surely not all, Mac. I analyzed those who interacted with [b]Pitch[b], too.

Edit: Formatting.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Okay, that makes sense - and I do get your point. My suspicions were basically "He looks bad. Oh, look, a butterfly!"

Dearie, I love this post so much.

Oh, and (assuming you're telling the truth, of course) apologies for doubting you. After the last game where one of us was a gifted I'm surprised we didn't band together, but you looked really shifty. Apparently I have a role findier, not a wolf finder. Rubbish. Anyway, good call. And I'm really happy you were allowed to survive the Night, if just for the amusing wording of your posts.

++Pitch


Why wait? However, I'll get to some analyses tonight.


EDIT: I had to turn my computer off for a bit to talk to some friends so I've not caught up. Thus, x'd since the post I quoted.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boro

Pitchers(o' ice), you get to have all the fun by being a known wolf for the day. I've had that pleasure before, and I have to tell you we go much easier on the wolves who co-operate. So, give up you're other two buds and we'll give you a nice, quick, death.

How come you're so sure?

Originally Posted by Mac

I don't mean to criticise those who want to analyse Pitch, and I'm aware that I'm contradicting my comment about a boring Day, but aren't you counting your chicken before they're hatched? All your work could, in theory, be for nothing.

Exactly.

Of course, I totally see you all have no logical choice but lynching me toDay to find out the truth (Mr Agreeable doubling as Captain Obvious, for a change). It still sucks... just as I was getting warmed up...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Bes

I don't have much time at the moment(Dinner should be arriving soon, and I have cleaning to do.), but I didn't realize that the Ranger doesn't actually die when they protect someone who gets attacked in the night. I've still got a lot of basic learning to do, it seems.

I know he's a newbie but it sounds like he was a little let down our beloved ranger isn't dead yet. And why is this point relevant? (I ask because it's possible I skipped a post.) Is he just trying to make himself look more innocent/new to avoid being lynched for his behavior? (Again, posing the question. I'll have to look at his posts more fully before I make a decision.)

In other news, I've quite a suspicion that Shasta could be a problem. I mean really, who doesn't, but I thought I'd put that out there. I'm not happy with him.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shasta

#538 (Pitch) - Retracts his earlier statement of Brinn's innocence, and tries to push Lottie to dream of Bes. To me, this points towards Bes's innocence.

Okay, that's pretty much exactly what I said. Had you seen that and were just restating something that you agreed with, or did you come up with that yourself?

EDIT: xed with Sally

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by sally

I know he's a newbie but it sounds like he was a little let down our beloved ranger isn't dead yet. And why is this point relevant? (I ask because it's possible I skipped a post.) Is he just trying to make himself look more innocent/new to avoid being lynched for his behavior? (Again, posing the question. I'll have to look at his posts more fully before I make a decision.)

There was a mini-conflict yesterDay about Bes's idea that my reveal was trying to get rid of the Ranger, and no one understood what he meant. His post explains what he was thinking, at least.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Okay, that's pretty much exactly what I said. Had you seen that and were just restating something that you agreed with, or did you come up with that yourself?

EDIT: xed with Sally

I saw that you mentioned it, but I put it in the analysis basically independently.

[satansaloser2005]

*has an idea but doesn't think it will be received very well*

First of all....Lottie, you only get one dream, correct? Did I understand that right?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Loslote

There was a mini-conflict yesterDay about Bes's idea that my reveal was trying to get rid of the Ranger, and no one understood what he meant. His post explains what he was thinking, at least.

K, thanks. I figured I'd missed something.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by sally

*has an idea but doesn't think it will be received very well*

First of all....Lottie, you only get one dream, correct? Did I understand that right?

Yes, that's right. What's the idea? And why do I get the feeling I shouldn't have asked?

EDIT: xed with Sally

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I saw that you mentioned it, but I put it in the analysis basically independently.

Okay, thanks. That, at least, makes me feel a bit more confident in easing up on suspecting Bes.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Mac

Pitchwife a wolf? Very good. Let's get the pitchforks and lynch him!

Thank you, but use a spoon, not a fork. It's more fun that way.

[Brinniel]

I should just rub it in all your faces now and say I told you so. It was a mistake to lynch Nienna, she was the easy lynch, the most obvious suspect usually turns out innocent, blah, blah, blah. Shame on those who didn't listen, especially the ones who accused me of being a wolf defending a fellow wolf (I mean really, where's the logic here?). You may have killed Nienna, but she still gets her brownie. So there.

I'm much more ready to believe Loslote toDay as she's exposed a wolf and I would expect a baddie posing as a wolf to 'dream' of an innocent. Otherwise it's plain suicide...unless she's a wolf sacrificing a fellow wolf to look good which I don't find at all likely since it's rather risky (especially since I can't recall Pitchwife receiving much suspicion, so why sacrifice him). Anyway, we can lynch him toDay, but we should also be a bit productive and try to sniff out the other two.

Lommy I'm very suspicious of due to her posts at the end of yesterDay. Shasta I was worried about already and I'm worrying about him even more toDay. Nogrod, I'd like you to answer my question from the end of yesterDay because I'm still confused why my post decided your vote.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Brinn

we should also be a bit productive and try to sniff out the other two.

Lommy I'm very suspicious of due to her posts at the end of yesterDay. Shasta I was worried about already and I'm worrying about him even more toDay. Nogrod, I'd like you to answer my question from the end of yesterDay because I'm still confused why my post decided your vote.

I agree about Lommy, but I don't see much suspicious about Shasta or Nog. This is not to say that I would fight tooth and nail to prevent their lynching; I just don't think they're the other two wolves. I'd prefer looking at Wilwa, to be frank.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I agree about Lommy, but I don't see much suspicious about Shasta or Nog. This is not to say that I would fight tooth and nail to prevent their lynching; I just don't think they're the other two wolves. I'd prefer looking at Wilwa, to be frank.

I concur.


Now back to explaining my grand scheme. Back in a moment.

[Loslote]

Wait, you agree? I thought you said you thought Shasta could be a big problem.

[Nogrod]

I'm coming to yesterDay... *how slow can you be?*

But I can see the reason already why the suspicions on Pitchie went down: because of the mutual voting between Mnemo and Pitch. One more remainder to all of us that wolves can be sneaky nowadays!

Just look at Shasta's summary how everyone drops the suspicion and calls Pitchie "innocent(ish)" after D2 votes & learning Mnemo was a wolf afterall. Can we be this simple?

But interestingly there are only a few people who even commented on Pitch earlier... I'll try to collect my data into some intelligible stuff as I run through yesterDay first - and see if there are any patterns of opportunism to be found.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Yes, that's right. What's the idea? And why do I get the feeling I shouldn't have asked?

Because it's insane, that's why. But it won't leave my brain so it must be posted. And a note in advance: If you're short on time skip this post and come back to it later. I had to get this plan/theory off my chest but I know there's far too many variables so we can discuss it later if we think it's viable. Basically if you're in a rush this isn't the most important thing for you to read.


Now, on with the plan. We've got a hunter who is able to take a wolf with them when they die, right? Right.

Originally Posted by the rules

1 Hunter – she stands with the innocents, and at any point of the game, she can choose people whom she is going to watch and take with her in case she dies. That effectively means that the Hunter will send me a list of three or less names (maximally up to the number of living Werewolves in game), and if she is killed during the Night and there is a Werewolf on the list, the Werewolf who is first on the list will die alongside her; otherwise, nothing happens. If the Hunter is lynched and there is a Werewolf on the list, the Werewolf who is the first on the list will die alongside her; otherwise, the first person who is on the list will die alongside her. The Hunter can change her list at any point, however, in case of her death, I am of course taking into account only the list I had in my disposition before the deadline of the current Day/Night (i.e. for example if the Hunter is lynched, then Night comes, and she sends me another list after she died, I am not going to take it into account). The Ranger and Hunter know each other's identities and can PM each other during the Night.

Okay. So. Let's assume (for kicks let's use Mithalwen....not only because it allows us to be completely meta and hypothetical but I want to see her search herself and wonder what's going on) Mith is pretty sure Lottie is telling the truth. Therefore Pitchie is her main suspect. She would then put Pitch on her list just in case the Day goes awry in some way. So there's a wolf down, assuming that either Pitch is first on her list or that the other people on her list are not wolves. Basically if our hunter is mis-lynched (let's hope not) or Night killed the known wolf will go down with them. This could leave us free to lynch another suspect toDay and see what we can make of other ties, perhaps allowing us to end the wolf threat (and thus win the game, of course) sooner. Mith could stay in hiding that way and we would be able to have an automatic wolf down when she dies. Of course if she stays alive long enough and/or we decide it's getting too close for us we can kill Pitch then and Mith can choose new target(s), but that allows us to circumvent Game!End angst by having a known wolf to lynch and also affords us the possibility of a known wolf who would be more or less powerless. We ignore everything Pitch says, and as long as we ensure our lynches are orchestrated properly he can't cause too much trouble. Consider him a PoW.

Of course I know there's problems with this, not the least of all being that without lynching Pitch we can't validate Lottie's claim. But in theory it would be good, because we'd incapacitate a wolf and be able to rely on our logic still rather than just accepting freebies from our seer (which isn't bad, but not nearly as fun in my opinion).

Whew. I feel better now. Sorry I wasted so much time on that but it refused to go away. Now on to analyze/re-read and catch up. *sighs, gets to work*

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Wait, you agree? I thought you said you thought Shasta could be a big problem.

Sorry, I should have clarified. I mean I agree about Lommie being a good suspect. And I do think Shasta's a problem; Nog, not so much. So 2/3?

[Loslote]

Intriguing idea. There is the problem that you guys can't verify what I say, then, until I die, but it might work. Of course, my supporting "the plan" could easily be taken as a wolf realizing what a tight spot I was in and seeing a good way to avoid it, so I'm not going to try to push it, but if everyone else wants to, I'd be willing to go along...or would be, if I hadn't already voted.

And, okay, 2/3 makes sense.

[Macalaure]

YesterDay's voting

Morsul -> Morsul (...)
Lottie -> Bes
Nerwen -> Nienna (as I said yesterDay, considering that she had little time, this vote looks ok)
Wilwa -> Nienna(2) (she was under suspicion a lot yesterDay, so a vote that perfectly fits an attempt to save herself isn't surprising, but at this early point, it's extremely suspicious)
Eomer -> Sally (sounds perfectly reasonable, but I agree with the people who find him eerie)
Bes -> Lottie (with his explanations toDay, this vote looks ok)
Boro -> Wilwa (I really can't imagine a guilty Boro anymore. If you're a wolf, hats off)
Pitch -> Sally(2) (considering the considerable suspicion against her, this would have been a daring wolf-on-wolf. He even makes points against Nienna in his voting post, so going save and voting her would have been easy. Sally looks better)
Me -> Wilwa(2)
Green -> Sally(3) (has Greenie been killed in part to set up Sally?)
Sally -> Wilwa(3) (I might be a bit biased about people who vote Wilwa, but especially considering that Sally voted to save her life, I see no fault with this one)
Lommy -> Nienna(3) (unsure about this one, very unsure. The problem is that all three were under suspicion from quite early on, so it's easy for a wolf to be consistent. I see no obvious malintent, but Lommy is eerie as well)
Nogrod -> Nienna(4) (one of the worst votes yesterDay, but for the same reason as with Lommy, it's difficult to judge)
Nienna -> Wilwa(4)
Brinn -> Sally(4) (did she cross with Nienna's vote? Their votes came during the same minute, but Brinn didn't say anything, and a simple vote can be typed in seconds. If it's not crossed, then why on earth did she vote for Sally? If she was so opposed to have Nienna die, voting Wilwa was the only logical possibility, even if she might have suspected Sally more)
Shasta -> Nienna(5) (to his defense, he said he was going to, and Nienna was already leading (first to reach 4), so this wasn't a crucial vote. Nevertheless, a very bad one here)

Look better: Sally
Look worse: Shasta, Nogrod, Brinn, Lommy (If I have the time, I will give these fellas a closer look toDay)

If Pitch is wolf 2 and Wilwa is wolf 3, I'll be damned if wolf 4 is not among those four.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Thank you, but use a spoon, not a fork. It's more fun that way.

Will do.