Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Roa_Aoife]

Firefoot, you are innocent.

Are you the seer? Do I need to tear my Firefoot analysis into little pieces now?

[Firefoot]

Moving through my list:

Caran: Cailin summed my observations up very well in her analysis post:

There is less information on Caran. She has posted regularly, but said less than some and even her voting pattern underlines her inclination to go with the crowd. She was suspicious of Lommy, yesterDay, as well. She has been clarifying things, tallying votes but provided few theories of her own. I do not think her particularly guilty, but not very innocent either. She might just be a little overwhelmed.

She tends to shift her suspicions around a lot, following pretty much whatever everyone else is doing. Day 1 it was Loki, Day 2 it was Lommy and Nogrod, Day 3 it was Celuien and a little bit Lommy and Eomer. I'm thinking that she's probably innocent, or at least she has been. No accounting for the here and now...

Glirdan: He has been putting out some of his own ideas. There's nothing about his posts that particularly sticks out to me as being wolvish, and with him gone, he can't be the EW. Probably innocent.

Kath: I think that, at least prior to last Night, she was almost certainly innocent. Her posts have been thoughtful, to the point, and sensible. Of course, these things, and the fact that she hasn't been under much suspicion, would make her a good target to be changed into a wolf. I would consider picking her, if I was the EW. But I wouldn't lynch her yet.

Lalaith: I honestly have no clear idea why she has been under so much discussion after reading her posts. Nor do I think that she was one of the ones recently changed into a wolf; she has been under too much suspicion for that. I'm thinking that she probably is innocent.

Jenny: Okay, I'll be honest, my mind has started to wander and I'm not comfortable saying much on Jenny because of that. I would say that she is not the EW, but that's about all I'm going to say for now.

That's all I'm going to do for now, and it doesn't seem to have been terribly productive. But my focus is not with this any more, and that means time to take a break.

Firefoot, you are innocent.

Glad to know somebody thinks so...? What Roa and Diamond said.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Good job, son. I really thought morm was the GW.

I'm still uneasy about Zali, too, vzv.

So, if you ask me what I think:

NIGHT 1: Zali, ++Nogrod, ++**Loki

NIGHT 2:++Naria

NIGHT 3: Valier

NIGHT 4: Roa, Diamond, **Nilp

++ - killed
** - scried by the GW

[Diamond18]

Nilpy Nilpy Nilpy, where did you go? Well, I can't think of any other reason for Nilp's assurance, so... yay! Firefoot was someone I was fairly suspicious of, so it's nice to be able to take her out of contention.

x-posted with Nilp. Seems my patented "three name call" is still working.

[Gurthang]

[rant]

Frick. I am so mad.

Do you guys think I'm evil? Or stupid? Maybe you think I'm stupid.

You'd think I hadn't just come out and said I was the Good Wizard. By the way you guys are disagreeing with me, it makes me feel like I'm a moron, and I'm sick of it.

I come out, trying to provide a little order to this chaotic game, and almost all I get are complaints. Excuse me for wanting to use the phantom's plan, but I just happen to think he's one of the most intelligent Barrowdowners. Excuse me for trying my best to help this village out! Excuse me for volunteering myself for this bloody job in the first place!

[/rant]

There will be a list. This is it:

Azaelia
Eomer
Valier
Roa_Aoife

Please pick who you find the most suspicious from among these four.

[sarcasm]
Look familiar? It should. It's the top four after Celuien from yesterdays voting. I happen to not know anything about any of them.

What's that you say? Roa and Alcarillo tied? Oh, so they did. Well, I flipped a coin, and Roa is there for toDay.

[/sarcasm]

Okay, some of you say that I shouldn't pick who's on the list since you don't think any one person should have that much power. Or something like that. Well, I agree. That's why I picked the people who everybody thought was suspicious yesterday. Ironically, yesterday 55% of those who voted picked one of these four. and remember that out of that remaining 45%, more than half voted for Celuien.

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm going to assume this means your the ex-seer. Unless Gurthang says otherwise, I'm inclined to believe you, too. So.. . *tears up Firefoot analysis* Glad that's out of the way. Now I don't know whether to wait for Gurthang's list and risk ignoring someone truly suspicious, or to move forward on my own and risk being "disobedient." (I despise being told what I can and cannot do... does it show much?)

Edit: Cross-posted with Gurthang.

Chill out. No one accused you of anything. We don't like your plan, but that doesn't mean we think you're stupid. We just don't like the idea of having you choose who we can and cannot look at. It's not because we doubt you or your abilities, it's because we like to think things out for ourselves. As I said, it becomes more of You vs the baddies, than Us vs. the baddies, and that is something I wish to avoid. So relax. Just because we don't to accept you as our dictator doesn't me we don't like you.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Do not disagree with the GW, okay?

He may get innocents lynched (statistically, he will), but he's the most powerful good guy in this village right now. He's here to help us.

Now, keep your freaking self-conservation and bloody suspicion list aside and just follow him.

He has the bigger picture, remember?

[Caranlondien]

Okay, the fact that Nilp just came out and gave us information kind of invalidates this post I've been working on... But I'm going to post it anyway! I spent a darned long time on it! So here's what I was going to say...

About Gurthang's plan...

These are our villagers:
1. Diamond
2. Caranlondien
3. Roa Aoife
4. Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
5. Kath
6. Lommy
7. Glirdan
8. Valier
9. Sleepy Ranger
10. Kitanna
11. Firefoot
12. Alcarillo
13. Oddwen
14. mormegil
15. Feanor
16. Zali
17. Jenny Hallu
18. Lalaith
19. Eonwe
20. Eomer
21. Nilpaurion
22. Gurthang

We now know the last of those to be the GW. So that brings us down to 21 unknowns (for us ordos, anyway). If we vote on our own, we have a 5/21 (a little less than 1 in 4) chance of getting a baddie.

Now, Gurthang knows the identities of two innocents, correct? The Hunter and the former Seer. So for him there are 19 unknowns. 5 of those 19 are baddies. So eliminating the middle steps, our chances are 5/19 of getting a baddie. The middle steps can't hurt our chances, and they might help them (I'm not so good at statistics...).

The psychological problem with the proposed plan is that the choice is less in our hands. But from a randomly speaking point of view, our chances are improved.

You might read lorebooks saying my ancestors have been known to argue against plans based on statistics. It's true. But in those cases, it was because I felt that the game wasn't random, because we were using our own judgement. But in a village this big, with so much uncertainty, and with people's roles changing, I think we are as near randomness as we can get.

Listen to the GW!

[Roa_Aoife]

I will disagree with whomever I wish. At this present moment, he knows as much as we do except fo rthe identity of one hunter, who is useless if not attacked anyways. It's not about self conservation, it's about me thinking for myself. Your tone is insulting, Nilp. Back off.

Edit: And it's not the list I disagree with- it's the whole idea of us letting him think for us. It takes the fun out of the game. What's the point if I can't think things out on my own?

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

(I despise being told what I can and cannot do... does it show much?)

Yes. And I happen to be in the same boat, so Gurthang and Nilp are going to flog us with dead fish. I don't much mind a fish flogging as long as it's not fatal.

I was going to wait until tomorrow and was heavily leaning toward voting for Kitanna, based on my finding her the most suspicious, but since I am not allowed, fine, whatever, I'm just a little Ordo and I'll let the big important Gifteds call the shots. Meh.

+ + Azaelia

Not around, can't defend herself, my own dear daughter. But I voted for her yesterDay and so she's the only real choice I'm inclined to vote for off of the list.

Oh, and I'm voting early since I don't see anymore point in saying anything that's not sanctioned by Gurthang or Nilp -- and I'm not in a mood to PM them all my posts for approval.

[JennyHallu]

Thankfully Kitanna has made only 10 posts, which makes this much easier considering how many other things I am attempting to do at the same time.

Her first post is rather long; but this is my highlight:

This caught my eye when I first read it and then I see Nogrod also feels this comment needs to be watched. Nogrod also mentioned Loki's "wolfish" defense of himself ofone little comment made. I'm not really concerned about that it's his first game and Day one. It's not all that surprising he's a bit jumpy. But the comment above has me worried. What exactly is Loki trying to tell us? Trying to taunt us?

Kitanna came out day 1 strongly against Loki and for Nogrod. So did a lot of people, but I have to admit suspicion of those who didn't even entertain the notion that Loki might be telling the truth.

Her second post is a vote for Loki, saying that she chose between Nogrod, Loki, and Lommy because they led in the votes--followed by an apology for bandwaggoning.

Post 3: An agreement of Celuien and Diamond, then a defense (sort of) of Alcarillo and myself. Really not much of a defense: She doesn't think we're likely to be wolves, but admits we might be...

Gah...I've read the posts, but I don't have time right now to go through all of them. Sorry to those looking for me to do so.

Kitanna looks like a likely wolf candidate to me, and she has been very non-commital from the get-go. Sorry, that's as much as I have time for. Now a quick read-through and a vote.

[JennyHallu]

I'm going to vote

++Valier

For the same reasons as yesterday and because I have no more time to look closer at the others.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I don't know why I bother. I'll probably be dead toNIGHT, enedwaith.

It was nice playing with you guys. Well, most of you, those who don't criticise other player's style and aren't afraid of having their styles criticised.

Let's see:

INNOCENT:
Gurthang - GW
Nilp - ex-Seer
Firefoot - last dream target.

Clear enough?

Caran, if we add the Hunter, that's 18 unknown villagers left.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Nilp

Caran, if we add the Hunter, that's 18 unknown villagers left.

Yes! So my argument is not in vain, because Gurthang's choices still give us better odds!

And, on a different note...

[rant]

I don't see how anything Gurthang has said takes the whole fun out of the game. He's the GW, and he's proposed a plan. It's not that he's not letting us do things. He's suggested that we follow the plan, but it's up to each of us to decide if we will follow that plan. If you choose not to, then you can try to get people to see things from your point of view, and try to explain why it doesn't make you evil!

It's all still part of the game. More importantly, it is a game!

In fact, Roa and Diamond's reactions to this, if anything, have made me less suspicious of them. I wouldn't think a baddie would respond in such a way...

[/rant]

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I'll come back with my vote by about 4pm local (GMT +8).

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I will disagree with whomever I wish. At this present moment, he knows as much as we do except fo rthe identity of one hunter, who is useless if not attacked anyways. It's not about self conservation, it's about me thinking for myself. Your tone is insulting, Nilp. Back off.

Edit: And it's not the list I disagree with- it's the whole idea of us letting him think for us. It takes the fun out of the game. What's the point if I can't think things out on my own?

This was my point, too. And if that makes me not fun to play with, sorry. But you see, I have gone along with voting off the list, like a good girl -- I just don't think I have to pretend I'm 100% happy with the idea. Especially since the person I felt the most confident about voting for wasn't on the list.

If Zali is lynched and turns out to be a wolf, and Kitanna is innocent, then happy day. Until then, I reserve the right to be less than enthusiastic.

[Gurthang]

Thank you Nilp. Or should I say Dad.

Also, thank you Caran for not disagreeing with me.

Now, I need to catch up on questions.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Gurthang, isn't it a little counteractive to tell us that you're going to choose the same seer? The EW knows who that is. S/he has the power to just keep ungifting or set the wolves on him/her. I would probably choose someone different.

Yes and no. I was hoping that the Evil Wizard would actually believe me, and then I would do something else. Basically, if I did scry Nilp, then EW would have the wolves kill him. If I don't scry Nilp, EW does and turns Nilp to EVIL. So, I say I'll do one thing, then do another. That way, if it actually goes like I hoped, I don't scry Nilp, but the wolves still kill him, and I don't lose my scry. Although I do lose my Dad.

Oh, and don't worry about blowing my bluff or anything like that. Now the EW still has to guess at what I'm going to do; because now I might scry Nilp... or I might not.

Originally Posted by Diamond18

Well, I suppose it's a good plan for not revealing your Gifteds. The thing that worries me is that if you pick four people I don't have any strong suspicion of and don't think should be voted for, I'm still forced to vote for them or be considered as disobedient and evil. And the idea of having to vote for someone I more or less find innocent, lest I be castigated and lynched, rankles me.

So I suppose it depends on your list. I understand why you can't take nominees, so I guess there's really nothing I can say about who I would consider worthy lynch candidates, besides what thoughts I've already given. I feel like I've come under suspicion just because you dislike my style and don't find my posts to be particularly worthy contributions, and as I have not intended them as space wasting filler, it bothers me. But I suppose I'll just hush up now, as it doesn't matter.

Well, simply pick the candidate from the list that is the most suspicious to you.

As far as me suspecting you for style, no. I kinda like you're (what I would call) carefree/relaxed type posting. As far as suspecting you for less analysis in said posts, yes. But I've suspected because of that before.

Originally Posted by Roa

Certainly if you find someone guilty, we should all vote for that person, but by narrowing things down so greatly, isn't it quite likely that a wolf, or even the EW, could slip past you? As I said, we may find things that you do not.

Not necessarily. It would rid us of a wolf, but it tells us nothing as far as voting is concerned. Although, right now voting doesn't tell us hardly anything anyway. So let's cross that hurdle when we come to it.

Originally Posted by Roa

Chill out. No one accused you of anything. We don't like your plan, but that doesn't mean we think you're stupid. We just don't like the idea of having you choose who we can and cannot look at. It's not because we doubt you or your abilities, it's because we like to think things out for ourselves. As I said, it becomes more of You vs the baddies, than Us vs. the baddies, and that is something I wish to avoid. So relax. Just because we don't to accept you as our dictator doesn't me we don't like you.

I'll let the phantom answer this one.

Originally Posted by the phantom, (bolding mine)

Now, that isn't to say everyone can't give their suspicions. Naturally, the GW and Seer will read what everyone has to say and take all opinions into consideration for the nightly scry/dream, but being allowed to state opinions and refusing the leadership of the GW are two completely different things.

The GW and his gifteds are our salvation. Once he is revealed, it will be in our best interest not to argue with him or his lists, because he knows more than a common villager. Should we give our opinions? Certainly! He will use them in helping him decide which individuals to scry and move onto the lynch list, but we shouldn't demand that he change his list or anything. Disobeying him might lead to the accidental discovery of gifteds.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

If you choose not to, then you can try to get people to see things from your point of view, and try to explain why it doesn't make you evil!

I'm not getting this impression from our illustrious former Seer. But, we'll see how the rest of the Day goes.

[Roa_Aoife]

I didn't criticize anyone's playing style, I disagreed with what I think is a bad plan. And if my playing style was criticized, I totally missed it. I just don't like you saying that I should listen to Gurthang with out question- he's foulable too.

I already made that list on my own. The odds of one wolf being in that four are rediculous, and he isn't certain about a single one of them. If he could expand the list, even, it would be for our good. But no, we just have to accept it, with ever questioning, oh my God, the GW might just be wrong about something!

I'm not saying I don't trust Gurthang, nor am I saying I think he's stupid, or incapable, or anything else. I just know better than to put all my eggs in one basket.

But I can see this will fall on deaf ears. So do whatever.

++Valier

Because she's the only one on the list that I find mildly suspicious, and far be it from me to suggest someone else. Obviously Gurthang knows everything that's going on, and certainly isn't as lost as the rest of us.

[Kitanna]

Gurthang's plan isn't entirely foolproof, we still stand a damn good chance and lynching innocents with it by picking one of the names from his list, but we also have a good chance of getting more wolves (maybe even the EW).
I have doubts of this plan, but I think it is defiantely worth a try and the GW is really the best defense the village has.
So I understand the frustration (anger even) from Roa and Diamond.

That said I looked at the four names that Gurthang gave us and I think I'm the only one who doesn't see anything overly suspicious about Zali or Valier. It's probably because I have been paying more attention to other villagers. As for Eomer I still hold my suspicions from yesterday about him and I view Roa as an in between. So I'll just go over all of their posts and make a decision based on my findings.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I will disagree with whomever I wish. At this present moment, he knows as much as we do except fo rthe identity of one hunter, who is useless if not attacked anyways. It's not about self conservation, it's about me thinking for myself. Your tone is insulting, Nilp. Back off.

As is your's Roa. Is it alright to point out that Nilp and I are proven innocents?* I have finished my rant (I put those rant tags on them to make it appear less serious.) and will do my best to not sound insulting. I hope you'll do the same, too. Would it help if I gave you a big smile? (Probably not, but I try.)

This is why I hate being a leader. Roa and Diamond, you two are obviously pretty good leaders. Unfortunately that makes it very difficult for you to force yourself to be a follower. Especially when the leader is not that good of a one.

Which is why I will never run for President. Or mayor, even. How do you do it, morm?

Diamond, if you feel Kitanna might be a wolf, then analyze her. If enough people suspect her and I do not know if she is innocent or guilty, then I might put her on the list.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

That said I looked at the four names that Gurthang gave us and I think I'm the only one who doesn't see anything overly suspicious about Zali or Valier. It's probably because I have been paying more attention to other villagers. As for Eomer I still hold my suspicions from yesterday about him and I view Roa as an in between. So I'll just go over all of their posts and make a decision based on my findings.

Exactly. That's one thing that I think we should all do before we vote.


*If you do not believe that, then you can lynch me.

[Alcarillo]

Well, my wife was killed last night, but I'll just have to hold in my grief lest I be lynched.

I'll have to vote now, what with time-zones and whatnot. I like the Good Wizard's list. He knows far more than us common folk, after all. So, I'll vote for

++Roa Aoife

Her rebellious talk is unsettling. I like the GW's plan. It's worth a shot. I'd trust the GW. He's essentially a seer, only un-kill-able by ordinary methods, and with multiple seers (GW and whatever seers he makes), I think we could really narrow down our list of unknown villagers.

[Roa_Aoife]

I believe you Gurthang- I have no reason not to, and lying would not be wise on this issue. I dislike Nilp's tone because he implies that I have no choice but to follow you. I don't think that it is wise to limit ourselves so, and it seems to me like no one is listening when I say that. They simply assume that you know everything, and so we should just blindly go with the choices you present us. But you must admit, and this rebuffs Caran's argument- you know the same as us, except for the identity of the hunter, and I imagine that you picked a good choice in someone who was unlikely to be lynched, but likely to be killed. So really, your in the same place as us right now. That may change tomorrow, but right now you know no better than we do, and Nilp's suggestion that we must simply agree with you on everything insults my intelligence.

I think you're a good leader, but I am a horrible follower, and I cannot simply accept your commands when I know we're in virtually the same boat. I don't want to be insulting, just realistic.

[Gurthang]

[All quotes are Roa's]

I didn't criticize anyone's playing style, I disagreed with what I think is a bad plan. And if my playing style was criticized, I totally missed it. I just don't like you saying that I should listen to Gurthang with out question- he's foulable too.

Truer words were never spoken.

I already made that list on my own. The odds of one wolf being in that four are rediculous, and he isn't certain about a single one of them. If he could expand the list, even, it would be for our good. But no, we just have to accept it, with ever questioning, oh my God, the GW might just be wrong about something!

You're right, I'm not certain about any of them. But technically, I didn't pick the list. Everybody did by their voting yesterday. Are you saying the whole village is wrong?

And expanding the list helps the Evil Wizard. It narrows down the choices of who my Hunter is.

I'm not saying I don't trust Gurthang, nor am I saying I think he's stupid, or incapable, or anything else. I just know better than to put all my eggs in one basket.

I did not see you hesitate much before voting for Valier.

But I can see this will fall on deaf ears. So do whatever.

Thanks. Thanks a lot. You have no idea how that makes me feel.

Because she's the only one on the list that I find mildly suspicious, and far be it from me to suggest someone else. Obviously Gurthang knows everything that's going on, and certainly isn't as lost as the rest of us.

Please suggest away. I won't guarantee that they will be put on the list, but I do know this: they won't be if nobody says they suspect them. And, as a matter of fact, I am not as lost as the rest of you, for I know who the Hunter is. Not that that's all that significant, but it is a fact.

I think you're a good leader, but I am a horrible follower, and I cannot simply accept your commands when I know we're in virtually the same boat. I don't want to be insulting, just realistic.

I still disagree. I do not think I am a good leader.

Voting so far:

Diamond - Azaelia (Azaelia-1)
Jenny - Valier (Azaelia-1, Valier-1)
Roa - Valier (Azaelia-1, Valier-2)
Alcarillo - Roa (Azaelia-1, Valier-2, Roa-1)

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Alcarillo

I'll have to vote now, what with time-zones and whatnot. I like the Good Wizard's list. He knows far more than us common folk, after all.

The only thing Gurthang knows that we don't know, at this exact point, is the identity of the Hunter. But I'll bet you like the list, since you ain't on it.

Her rebellious talk is unsettling. I like the GW's plan. It's worth a shot. I'd trust the GW. He's essentially a seer, only un-kill-able by ordinary methods, and with multiple seers (GW and whatever seers he makes), I think we could really narrow down our list of unknown villagers.

Geesh, you'd think we wanted to lynch Gurthang or something. I certainly don't.

Gurthang: I might go ahead and do an analysis on Kitanna, but you have to promise to hold off your attack dog (aka Nilp) I have already said why I suspect her mainly, but though I remember her Day 1 and Day 3 activity and voting, Day 2 has kind of been lost in a haze.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Gurthang, love, you're a dear. I like your plans and I'd be happy to vote for one of your suspects, since I'm suspicious of them all already.

I don't know for certain if I'll be able to get back on before the end of the Day due to a couple classes, the general amount of other responsibilities, and an unexpected extra work shift, so I'm going to vote now.

Roa, sweetie, though I took your advice (before you even gave it!) to take some Advil and lay down (in as darkened and quiet a room you can get early evening on campus), it doesn't mean I'm any more comfortable with your continued existance. Tradition beckons...

++ROA

[Roa_Aoife]

You're right, I'm not certain about any of them. But technically, I didn't pick the list. Everybody did by their voting yesterday. Are you saying the whole village is wrong?

And expanding the list helps the Evil Wizard. It narrows down the choices of who my Hunter is.

We've been wrong twice so far. And keeping the list narrow could halp the EW just as much by keeping our attention on innocents instead of the real bad guys.

I did not see you hesitate much before voting for Valier.

I voted in a huff of frustration, because I was really quite upset at Nilp and intended to just sign out for the day. If I didn't know that I'm going to have to be around to defend myself now that I'm on your "List of Death," I would have.

Quote:
But I can see this will fall on deaf ears. So do whatever.

Thanks. Thanks a lot. You have no idea how that makes me feel.

That quote was directed at Nilp, not at you. Honestly, he's the one who has me upset.

Please suggest away. I won't guarantee that they will be put on the list, but I do know this: they won't be if nobody says they suspect them.

The ex-seer seems to be saying that's wrong of us. According to him we have no choice but to accept your plan with out question- not a suggestion I have ever been partial too.

Again, I'm not terribly upset at you- I'm upset at Nilp. I don't agree with your plan, but I'll work with it if it's all I can do.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Fea

Tradition beckons...

Okay, third day, and you still haven't answered me on this. Why do you suspect me? Seriously, this isn't even defense anymore, it's just plain curiosity.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Valier

Ummm would it even matter if they did come out? Because chances are that whoever they dreamt of may now be bad, so I think if they want to they can come out,but not unless most of the people they dreamt of are still alive, they we may have a chance to cross off some Ordo's at least for today

I'm only caught up to this post but this again reinforces my feeling that Valier is guilty. She is extremely careless in her reading, as a wolf would be because they are overly confident and sometimes feel they don't need to read all. It has been given that the seer dreamt of Cailin and Cailin is dead. This coupled with yesterday's attitude convinces me that she is the wolf converted from two nights ago.

[Gurthang]

Roa, I ask that you not be upset with Nilp either, please. He and I are kind of in the same boat here.

We're both 'proven' innocents. So we proclaim ourselves thinking that the village will be all "Oh, yeah, we know two people who are NOT EVIL" and that you would all rally around us. Yet our proclaimations, well mostly mine, was met with disapproval of the plan I wanted to use to help the village. It's definitely a dream killer, if you will. It's very difficult to know how to respond in that situation.

But, now, I must take my own advice and analyse our four candidates for toDay.

Oh, and Roa, I was serious. The only reason you're on the "List of Death" ( ) is because that coin came up heads. (Actually, it bounced under my bed when I flipped it, and it took me about a minute to find it and see how it had landed. )

[mormegil]

Okay I'm more or less caught up and commenting on the list and the plan I think it's a good idea if it's modified a bit. I think we should listen to Gurthang because we know that we can trust him and he is a wise and critical thinker. As far as your list goes I agree with Zali and Valier. I would like to add Alcarillo at the expense of removing Eomer or Roa as I currently don't find either horribly suspicious but can you imagine both Diamond and Roa in a debate? I think we would have a virtual fire it would be so hot. I think we need to calm down a bit.

Her rebellious talk is unsettling.

I actually find her 'rebellious' talk a bit reassuring. I've strongly suspected Diamond and still do but their desire to be independent demonstrates to me that they are trying to catch wolves and trust themselves.

I have something to comment on Caran but I won't have time currently but I will do it later.

[Valier]

Mormegil I still don't understand your reasoning on me being made a wolf two nights ago, why would I then try my hardest to get people to vote for Roa? I believe she is the EW and lynching her will prove my suspisions. I assure you I read everything, but my mind sometimes gets muddled with all the extra stuff going on in this game, but I do not think I'm careless. Even if I was a wolf I would surely read everthing more careful, would I not? because making up lies is far harder than telling the truth or how I feel, which has been what I've been doing. I understand how others think I look suspicious but, like always in the Lore books if you check I am always found innocent when lynched because of my weird outbursts and accusations. I am leaning towards voting for Roa again since I would like her to be exposed for the EW I think she is, but I will wait until tomorrow (my time) to read through more and vote.

[Gurthang]

Just thought I'd update this, if anyone still wants to try this method of reasoning:

The Evil Wizard did pick:

Loki
Naria
Nogrod
Nilp
(hmm... maybe s/he does have a fascination with allteration *coughFeacough* )

The Evil Wizard did not pick:

The Saucepan Man
the phantom
Celuien
Lhunardawen
Cailín
Firefoot


morm, the list is final for toDay. Tomorrow, it may change quite a bit. Then again it may not change but for one. I won't say for sure until then.

[Caranlondien]

Well, after some time away clearing my mind, then re-reading a bit and trying to collect my wits, I've come to the conclusion that I desperately need some sleep. I'll be back sometime around 3pm GMT.

[Diamond18]

My Post On All Things Kitanna

I’m not going to recap her posts: you wanna read ’em, click on the link.

#90

Nothing particularly suspicious, as such, but as a wolf she could easily be picking up on the criticism of Loki and zeroing in on a weak member of the village. She expresses agreement with both tp and Gurthang on a plan, which could be honest agreement or just wanting to appear positive.

#195

In voting for Loki she is remaining consistent with her one other post, which is not wolfish per se but can be considered cautious. I find it interesting that she never really seems to consider that he could be telling the truth.

#303

I don’t find anything suspicious in this post.

#315

Interestingly, when Roa questions her vote and reasons for voting Loki, she really doesn’t say anything about beyond commenting about Nogrod and Loki... doesn’t really stand up for her own reasons, beyond saying it was a blanket statement by Loki that made her suspect him. But, the rest of the post seems reasonable. Yet... I’m wary of cautiousness and her posting feels quite cautious.

#329

Well, all her points about Nogrod are quite “on” as he did in fact turn out to be a wolf. One reason why I didn’t remember her Day 2 posting very clearly is because her posts weren’t very suspicious in and of themselves -- but consider that going along with what a lot of people were saying about Nogrod is quite a canny way of making up for contributing to Loki’s death.

I, by the way, did the same thing as Kitanna voting-wise -- first Loki, than Nogrod. But I made my case and my vote for Nogrod before Roa really went after him, whereas Kitanna did it after. So, make of that whatever you will.

#444

Now comes Day 3, when started getting bad feelings about her. She starts out defending Celuien here, but will end up voting for her eventually. She also seems to lean towards agreeing about Eomer being the evil wizard, which could be cautiously testing the bandwaggoning waters.

#448

Here she starts turning away from her defense of Celuien (and me) -- in the first half of the post she seems to be on Celuien’s side (cautiously) but at the end makes what I still feel is a very odd comment in response to me. As I’ve said, why should that comment I made make her regret defending Celuien?

#513

Here is where her reasoning continues to puzzle me. She initially defended Celuien’s pre-defense of her actions, but now she finds it condemning enough to vote for her. Like I said, I didn’t find Celuien’s posting that day to worsen my perception of her, yet as she came under more suspicion Kitanna found her defense of herself to be less warranted. Interesting.

#592

I felt like she was sidestepping my question here, making a rather unnecessary clarification. I don’t know, did anyone else think I was talking about THE phantom?

#598

Here’s an answer, but not one I’m totally comfortable with. She says that she was referring all the way back to Celuien’s first post of the game -- but this is the same post she defended, and when she actually did vote, she said it was because of:

Celuien's continued defense of phantom accusations of herself.

and

when Celuien continued it and regarded anyone looking at her as a "pointless arguement" I began to suspect her even more.

So her vote was not, in fact, about the earliest posting, it was about the later posting, which I found less suspicious, not more.

#620

Now, this interests me, because it’s very safe. She’s not taking sides with anyone in particular... which isn’t totally wolfish, but it continues her mostly safe way of doing things. I do not expect the Evil Wizard or one of his wolves to have the temerity to butt heads with him on thread, here, so this fits with my expectation of how a cautious baddy would react to the news of the Good Wizard’s coming out party.

In Summary:

I wouldn’t be surprised if Kitanna is innocent and all this has a reasonable explanation. But that, in itself, worries me -- Kitanna is exactly the sort of middle-ground, slightly-under-the-radar, comes-across-as mostly-reasonable-because-of-her-cool-tone sort of Wolf I’d want if I were the EW. So the fact that I can pick up on niggling things in her posts makes me fear having her around, quietly being evil. She’s like a spider, I’m afraid when I can’t get a clear view of her. (Um, I don’t mean that to be insulting, Kit, I’m just highly arachnophobic, so that seemed like an apt analogy.)

Plus, we’ve already seen the EW choose the Loud Wolf (Nogrod) the Unknown Element Wolf (Loki) and the Super Uber Quiet Wolf (Naria). Kitanna is the fourth type of poster and since the EW has selected one from each of the other demographics, I’m feeling that someone like Kitanna and Azaelia may have rounded out the pack.

This all said, I’m not as upset about voting Azaelia as I may have sounded -- yeah, like Roa, I pretty much voted early in a state of pique with Nilpaurion Knowitall but like I said, Zali was my pick yesterDay and I haven’t seen anything from her that changes my previous view.

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, I'd love to debate you a bit more, Gurthang, but it's near 1:00 am where I am, and I have an early day tomorrow. I hope to be back on several hours before voting closes.

[Diamond18]

My Post On All Things Azaelia

Might as well, since I voted for her, and she’s my second suspect behind Kit.

#104

Nothing much to comment on -- besides that she agrees with me about Loki’s ’tude and that she’s against focusing on the middle-ground people such as herself. Though she words it in a rather humble matter, she is basically saying, “Oh, the wizard wouldn’t pick little ol’ meeee.” I do, however, agree that it wasn’t a good idea to make a list of people you consider middle ground and ignore the rest, so she’s not saying anything strictly controversial.

But see my above comments on non-controversial posting.

#113

A time zone clarification... really, you’d think from looking at the whole time zone discussion that no one remembered to look at this site. Okay, that didn’t really have anything to do with Zali, but I thought I’d comment. Anyway, this is Zali’s second post of the entire game.... Now that’s a low profile.

#196

Votes for Loki for basically, it would seem, the same reasons that I did -- but she’s careful to point out that she is not bandwaggoning, despite how it looks, and even says she doesn’t like bandwaggoning. And then apologizes if it “looks” rushed... she seems very concerned with how she is perceived.

#227

Starts right off with yet another agreement, this time with Caran, and then speculates on why Sauce was killed. This isn’t particularly noteworthy except that it is yet another safe post, as it was fairly obvious to most people that Sauce was killed for his staggering intellect. (And I’m only being half facetious ’bout that, Sauce. ;;-)

#349

A vote for Nogrod late in the day -- easy to do, since he was looking mighty suspicious. So, more bandwaggoning, but she yet again makes a point of saying that she is not bandwaggoning, it just looks that way.

#382

Interesting that she had defended Alcarillo the previous say but now says he’s looking mighty suspicious. She compares his in character stuff to my in character stuff, using mine as a positive example -- and as counterintuitive as it may sound, this worried me, because no one usually says good things about my in character posting. *_* Maybe I’m just being ungrateful. But, it still worries me that she turned on Alcarillo based on, it seems, Morm’s continued suspicion of him. Then, she edits to agree some more with Morm that Eomer is now highly suspicious.

#387

More of the preoccupation with how her actions appear, and apologizing for them. Continuing to suspect Alcarillo and Eomer, and votes for Eomer in what seems to be a parroting of Morm’s whole case against him. As this preceded the announcement of RL issues that would keep her away for a long time, I can see how as an innocent she would go for the most persuasive argument around -- but since this was her apparent modus operandi all game, it unsettles me all the more.

In Summary:

All my points about safe posting in Kit’s analysis go for Azaelia but on a higher level. All her posts contained agreeable comments with other people’s theories, except when it came to focusing on quiet people like herself as wolves. I won’t say that her behavior cannot be justified as an innocent, but in my view that makes it all the more dangerous if she is, indeed, a wolf.

[Diamond18]

For my own curiosity I'd like to do a post on all things Fea -- but I fear I won't be doing it anytime soon, as she has 23 posts in Days 1-3 (and a couple more toDay) and such a task tonight would surely be the end of my sanity. What little a week of Werewolf has left me. Perhaps I will wait till she is actually a sanctioned lynch candidate.

I see that Valier is the favorite to die so far, and I don't really agree with that. Val strikes me as an innocent who got a bit sloppy because as an Ordo she has nothing much to lose and wasn't thinking things through enough. My lorebooks don't tell me anything about evil ancestors of hers and how they might have behaved, so I'm a little lost on that score. I could do a post by post analysis but that would more than unhinge me, it would leave me gasping for breath on the floor. Sorry Val. But I count 37 posts Day 1-3 and a few more for toDay so far.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Caran

All right, this looks like I'm jumping on a bandwagon, but my internet connection was down and I haven't really had time to explain my thinking...

++Celuien

I don't really feel good about voting for any of the choices. I was leaning towards Zali, but I just don't want to vote for her when she's not here, for obvious reasons. And I had missed the points on Celuien, too. Sorry if you're innocent, Celuien!

Okay in post 593 Caran brought this back up and it alarmed me. It always alarms me when people decide them must vote for one of the top candidates. It screams that they don't want to stand out. If you really don't think Celuien guilty then don't vote for her. Does this make sense? It appears that she's so concerned with making herself stand out that she makes it a point to fit it with the main stream.

Unfortunately the village is still so large that it makes it difficult to think about everybody. I sense that most of us are focusing one 2 to 3 people each. But to reread this entire thread would be crazy. This is so frustrating because of the aspect of people potentially changing from one day to the next.

Diamond you've left yourself unanalyzeable due to your size and frequency of posts . I think you have some valid points about Kitanna and I'm glad you are looking at her because I know that I have not been able to. Regarding Zali you are bringing up points that I have felt for a while. I'm not sure how I feel about Kitanna being guilty but it could be a potential.

Valier everything fits so well that you would have been converted two nights ago. Your drastic behavior shift and your posts that where you kept persiting the points about the phantom and your post today.

[Gurthang]

I just had a good sized post destroyed; about 10 quotes or so from our four.

I'll look about getting those quotes tomorrow, but basically here's what I found:

Eomer - Could be evil, but he seems sincere to me. If he is bad, he's pulling a great bluff.

Valier - Her sudden switch after Night 3 is what really troubles me. She jumped to four new suspects, none of whom she had been suspicious of before, and then went all out for one of them. I believe her about her insticts being good, but I wouldn't put that much trust in them. And then there was this weird confession post...

Azaelia - mostly what I see as suspicious is her vote for Eomer yesterday. Yet that's about the only thing.

Roa - I found her pretty consistant the first few days. Between yesterday and toDay, though, she did change. She said before last Night that Valier was a misguided innocent. ToDay she said she'd be looking at her and then voted for her.

So for me it's between Valier and Roa. I'm leaning towards Valier, but I'll see what developes. I'm going to bed, I'll be back in the morning to vote.