WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Inziladun]

To elaborate, I'm specifically interested to see if there appear to be any connections between those two and Pom and/or Cab.

[Inziladun]

Ok, interactions with and comments of Nerwen regarding the known Wizards.

Here is banter with Pom in troll-fashion.

Here she responds to Rikae with "An' when did Pom, Lad 'n' Cab say anything' about wizards not actin' like wizards?" Two Wizards there. Coincidence? Maybe. Seems rather careless for a Nerwizard.

This is her analysis of the Pom-lynch. nothing really notable there.

Questions whether Pom was bussed, concludes there was likely an attempt to save her.

Here she says Pom's seeming not knowing Cop's gender could be a point in Cop's favor.

Agrees with Cab that Volo was a "weird choice" of a wolf kill. You think?

And...that's all I saw. No obviously sinister links, at least not from her posts.

[Rikae]

I don't want to get tunnel vision but Inzil is looking worse and worse. I'll explain more soon (I hope. My internet is being bratty).

I kind of hope Zil is a wolf now, though, because going through Day one I see this from me:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I see, so Pom, Inzil and McCaber are trying to convince us that wizards don't act like wizards. Suspicious. Why would they be called "wizards" if they didn't change anyone's role, hmmm? Who would want us to think the wizards had fewer powers than they do, other than... wizards?

"Finding" three wolves in a banter post would just be awesome.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I don't want to get tunnel vision but Inzil is looking worse and worse. I'll explain more soon (I hope. My internet is being bratty).

I kind of hope Zil is a wolf now, though, because going through Day one I see this from me:


"Finding" three wolves in a banter post would just be awesome.

In other words, the same sort of "tunnel vision" you accused others of having toward Morsul? And by all means, explain your suspicion.

[Inziladun]

I encourage everyone to at least rely on your own instincts and conclusions this Night. Yes, there is another Night's leeway, thanks to Lottie, but don't let that move you into hastiness. Look back over things and make up your own mind.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

DL falls in the midst of the workday, which I should have known would be a pitfall.

I don't like Gil's reasoning, but I've never played with him before, so I'm willing to let him pass for to(Day?Night?).

I'm not particularly keen on going for Nerwen at the moment, so I''ll make it

++Pom

for the vote on Cop, and the odd remark about watching everyone else.

x/d with last three

I have to note that this was shortly (but more than three posts) after I voted for McCaber.

Day 2, Cab says:

Originally Posted by Cab

Well, we know Pom was right about there being at least one who voted for CM.

Har-de-har-har...

And Inzil replies

Originally Posted by Inzil

Yes indeed.

No, that's not really evidence against him, it just amuses me.

An evil McCaber does make Nog, look better, though. They both went after each other in ways that could have easily resulted in a lynch - although nothing that couldn't be wolf-on-wolf after all. Nog's vote for McCaber is interesting in this light. For a wolf, obviously, it would be pointless; well, for an innocent it's pointless too. His explanation was especially weird. No, no pass for Nog.

Kath is really under the radar and no one seems to be looking at her.

McCaber says of the Volo kill:

Originally Posted by McCaber

If the wizards thought he was a seer, it was probably because of his first fluffy post and something they saw in his lists. Maybe Morsul is in fact innocent and the wizards thought that only a seer would think that. Other than that, he looked really suspicious and probably would have gotten himself lynched a few days down the road. A really weird choice of wolf kill.

Could be that's the plain truth. Good way to make sense and be consistent.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I would think it's likely Nog is on the right track, and Volo should have said something to make them think he might be on to one of them. It really doesn't make a lot a sense otherwise. As many have noted, he wasn't exactly considered innocent, and probably would have been one of the prime lynch candidates for toNight.

And then in response to McCaber

Originally Posted by Inzil

So to the Wizards anyone who thinks Morsul is innocent must be a Seer? I was thinking someone else had said they thought Morsul was all right, but I don't recall now.

Yeah: Inzil. Although Copper and I were also ambivalent about Morsul, Inzil actually called the Morsul wagon "fabricated".

So is this "I don't recall" sarcasm? Does Inzil expect that everyone else remembers his one line from two (RL) days before? He certainly remembers who he suspected or not! At this poitn he just seems to be interested in furthering the "Volo looked seerish" theory without drawing attention to himself.

Inzil claims I look innocent after self-voting, along the lines that a wolf wouldn't at that point. Nah, this doesn't tell me anything. He could actually have changed his opinion of me or he could just be confident that I'll be lynched and stepping away from the bandwagon to avoid drawing attention the next day. After this Cab goes for Morsul. Inzil makes a vote for Gil that is essentially a throwaway, asking someone to join so it's not for nothing.

The day Gil was lynched Copper makes some statements about how the wolves won't defend him and he might not show up, and Inzil questions her about it. Something about one of them - something about the exchange, actually.

Huh, I just realized I put Nerwen in two different categories yesterday. I don't know what's going on with me. '

Anyway, today:

Originally Posted by Inzil

n other words, the same sort of "tunnel vision" you accused others of having toward Morsul? And by all means, explain your suspicion.

What? I didn't say any such thing. I said it was choreographed. By wizards. And we know now that it was, although we don't know to what extent.

And I said I didn't want to have "tunnel vision" anyway. Meaning, I didn't want to see evil because I expected to see it. But at this point, nonetheless, I'm pretty sure you're evil. I gave reasons both yesterday and today - not sure how you could have missed that! However, I'm confident the other trolls around here will be able to see where I'm coming from.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I encourage everyone to at least rely on your own instincts and conclusions this Night. Yes, there is another Night's leeway, thanks to Lottie, but don't let that move you into hastiness. Look back over things and make up your own mind.

I agree completely.

++Inzil

[Inziladun]

Since Rikae is exhibiting all the single-mindedness for which she castigated Morsul voters, I'll just take a page from her book.

++Inzil

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Since Rikae is exhibiting all the single-mindedness for which she castigated Morsul voters, I'll just take a page from her book.

++Inzil

You better be a wizard, because otherwise I'm going to be pretty angry with you for repeating this misrepresentation of what I said.

Lots of luck with the self-voting, really.

[satansaloser2005]

Re: Morsul. Ugh. Again? Seriously, man, stop acting guilty when you're not.

Re: Lottie. No surprise there. I had the sneaking suspicion she was our hunter (she's acted similarly once before), and had hoped she could do....well, what she did. I'm sad to see her go though. Good job, dear.

I'll be that guy and note that the wizards took out the main person who was against my lynch yesterDay (at least from what remember of what I've read). There may be something there, or it may be coincidental.

Re: McCaber. So the McCobbler was in fact a McWizard, was he? Well, that changes some things. As is normally the case with McCaber, I don't pick up much from him, but I'll go back and look through his posts to see if I catch anything interesting.

Oh, and can we not almost lynch me next time I'm unexpectedly gone for the Day? That'd be great, thanks. >.<

I have a few thoughts in another tab that I'll be sharing soon, but I honestly believe it'll be an early night for me. I really haven't been sleeping well lately, and I actually need to be decently conscious to do my job tomorrow. Back soon.

[Rikae]

I'd just like to point out:

Inzil apparently doesn't suspect me.
There are seven people here. Two are wolves.

If Inzil was innocent, and thought I was innocent (as he appears to) he would basically have just thrown away the lynch.

Nope, it makes much more sense if he's a wolf trying what "worked" for me.

And before he calls me a hypocrite (because that seems to be his thing now), I self-voted in a much larger village, when my vote, and my life, mattered much less.

This just makes me more confident I'm on the right track.

[satansaloser2005]

A few thoughts on our resident crazy lady (said with reason and affection, I promise).

Originally Posted by Rikae

Oh yeah, and on Morsul:

I told you so
I told you so
I told you so


Yeah.

Yes, yes you did. You also told us a few other things....

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm strongly considering voting for Morsul:

-for trying to lump himself in with Gil yesterday as an "easy lynch".
-for the countdown to a wizard victory. Yes, it's just the facts, but something about the way he posted looks like counting down to his own win. I can't put my finger on what that "something" is, but it feels wrong.

And then, once he had votes....

Originally Posted by Rikae

No. I don't want to lynch him anymore. It seems too much as if he's been chosen for the purpose.

Wolves don't always bandwagon. Sometimes they just talk other people into doing it for them, then sit back and watch the carnage, afterward being able to claim they had nothing to do with the slaying of an innocent. Rikae did exactly, exactly that.

And then there's this that you said about me, which presses one of my suspicion buttons....

Originally Posted by Rikae

She started off with a lot of strange posts - I thought so at the time - implying she doesn't know anything about trolls. Really. Yes, it was banter, but I think everyone here knows Tolkien's trolls have pockets! I have no idea what that is or why she'd do it, unless maybe as some sort of wizard hint to the cobbler or... er, maybe a hunter hint? Purse troll? I don't even know.

I'm sorry, why did you feel the need to point out a gifted hint again? What made you think that could possibly be a good idea?

Back to the main issue, however, Rikae's flip flop (though not in the style of either of our wonderful mods) about Morsul yesterDay and toDay looks quite bad to me. I had left her to her own devices due to the rather heated nature of some conversations on the thread, but I simply can't ignore this. She put a Morsul lynch, which was already in most of our minds at the time, on the table with a shiny apple in its mouth, and then when people decided to bite, she backed away and is now calling us animals.

I don't like it. I don't like it at all.

Of course now I'm not sure what to think of her exchange(s) with Dun. Her throwaway (and it was!) vote for him yesterDay was wasteful, even if she were innocent and thought him a wolf. I mean, really, thanks for not deciding to kill me, but what the heck?

If she's a wizard, she's clearly not afraid to vote for her mates, as she cast the first vote against McCaber on Day 1 (though Day 1 is always a bit with the random and it's entirely possible she didn't think he'd garner more votes). Would she be bussing Dun in such a showy fashion though? And would he go along with it like this? Both of them are tricksy, clever little Werewolfers, so I wouldn't put it past them, but doing it like this is just....crazy.


I have a lot to think about....

x'd with a very self-confident Rikae, which just worries me more

[satansaloser2005]

A relevant song, I believe.

(It's also stuck in my head, and thus you all must suffer with me.)

[Rikae]

I "flip flopped" about Morsul because I saw the way things were going. Very much like - well, exactly like - I "flip flopped" on Cop on day One.

Sometimes - no, often - people's reactions to one's suspicions are more suspicions than whatever the original suspicion was based on.

Of course I could have done that as a wizard. It could also be that Brinn didn't dream of me at all, but just thought I looked innocent. I suppose I could also have had two fellow wizards who, unfortunately, both followed my suspicion and simultaneously voted accordingly! That would be strange and wonderful.

You're reaching.

Originally Posted by Sally

I'm sorry, why did you feel the need to point out a gifted hint again? What made you think that could possibly be a good idea?

A hunter hint. See the difference?

You're really, really reaching. Why?

Originally Posted by Sally

Of course now I'm not sure what to think of her exchange(s) with Dun. Her throwaway (and it was!) vote for him yesterDay was wasteful, even if she were innocent and thought him a wolf. I mean, really, thanks for not deciding to kill me, but what the heck?

Yeah, if you were paying attention, any vote at that point was a throwaway.
It's kind of like our elections: I know only a Democrat or a Republican will win (in my state, only a Democrat); I consider both choices worthless so I make a statement with my vote, though I know that person won't win. I know some people don't get that, but that's how I roll.

Originally Posted by Sally

If she's a wizard, she's clearly not afraid to vote for her mates, as she cast the first vote against McCaber on Day 1 (though Day 1 is always a bit with the random and it's entirely possible she didn't think he'd garner more votes).

When I'm a wolf I'm not. And if I had two of them blatantly following my lead like that, I might even do so out of annoyance. Do you really think that's what happened, though, Sally?

[satansaloser2005]

I don't care how you want to spin it, Rikae. Pressing for a lynch, then backing off and saying, "Hey, guys, why'd you do that?" is....oh, wait, isn't that kind of what Pom did on Day 1?

Whether or not Brinn dreamt of you is irrelevant, and I honestly don't know why you're bringing it up.

As for McCaber, I didn't say you nearly lynched him on purpose, or even that your guild mates followed, although I find it interesting that you bring that up when we already know it's not possible (given that, you know Pom didn't even vote for McCaber, and two of the other people who did are dead and now proven innocent, which just leaves Nog).

A hunter, like any other gifted, is best left in the shadows. I realize it's not as much of a risk as pointing out that you may who the ranger is, but that still doesn't make it a good idea. The wolves can base their plans on the disposition of the hunter, and I've seen it happen before, so I know how crucial it can be for the hunter to keep their identity a secret until either their death or a time of their own choosing. (Also, outing gifteds is a pet peeve of mine. It's not your role. You don't get to decide when they reveal it. Note it in your head, say maybe you just are misinterpreting something, put them on a trusted list, whatever, but never assume that they want to be pointed at.)

You actually have a good point about your vote on Dun. I keep forgetting that the first to a tie dies. I apologize.

That said, my comment on your attitude toDay regarding the lynch still stands. I believe that you thought the lynch was a wizard plot, but I also believe you could have kept your distance to keep yourself from being implicated, not because you didn't want Morsul dead.

You're allowed to defend yourself, but I'm still allowed to think suspicious behavior is suspicious. It's sort of part of the game.

[Rikae]

About Inzil... I mean, he's mad about me supposedly saying the Morsul voters had tunnel vision - why does he feel accused in that way? I never said that.
I saw several people zeroing in at once on what would be an easy lynch and without much reason. How my vote, the first of the day, for someone no one else seems to have a problem with, is anything like that is beyond me.
If he was an innocent who felt there were good reasons for voting Morsul, why jump like that?
No one listened to me yesterDay. In fact, I have a feeling people generally don't listen to me: that I'm one of those players people write off as "crazy" and unable to produce sense. When people do listen to me, those people are almost invariably evil.
Sorry, don't mean to sound so whiny.

EDIT: X'd with Sally.

[satansaloser2005]

I need to sleep. I'll be back in the morning, at which time I'll look at Dun outside the context of Rikae, and will also give more thought to the rest of those left in the group.

x'd with Rikae *hugs*

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I don't care how you want to spin it, Rikae. Pressing for a lynch, then backing off and saying, "Hey, guys, why'd you do that?" is....oh, wait, isn't that kind of what Pom did on Day 1?

If you want to be incredibly simplistic about things, yes. It is also what I do, and what I have always done, when people join in my suspicion in a manner, and with timing, that is itself suspicious.
You know, like known wizards followed my suspicious several times already in this game alone - Cab even saying "great minds thinking alike"!

So, you know, as a strategy for finding wizards it kind of works and I intend to continue doing it.

Originally Posted by Sally

Whether or not Brinn dreamt of you is irrelevant, and I honestly don't know why you're bringing it up.

Um, I don't know, maybe because she made a point of defending me the whole time she was alive?
Do you think she would have dreamt me and defended me if I was evil?
Do we have two cobblers or what?

Originally Posted by Sally

As for McCaber, I didn't say you nearly lynched him on purpose, or even that your guild mates followed, although I find it interesting that you bring that up when we already know it's not possible (given that, you know Pom didn't even vote for McCaber, and two of the other people who did are dead and now proven innocent, which just leaves Nog).

I was talking about how Pom and McCaber followed me in suspecting Cop.

Originally Posted by Sally

A hunter, like any other gifted, is best left in the shadows.

I disagree. Not always.

Originally Posted by Sally

The wolves can base their plans on the disposition of the hunter.

This is precisely why it is sometimes good for them to know, or think they know, who the hunter is.
Catch my drift?

You actually have a good point about your vote on Dun. I keep forgetting that the first to a tie dies. I apologize.

That said, my comment on your attitude toDay regarding the lynch still stands. I believe that you thought the lynch was a wizard plot, but I also believe you could have kept your distance to keep yourself from being implicated, not because you didn't want Morsul dead.

You're allowed to defend yourself, but I'm still allowed to think suspicious behavior is suspicious. It's sort of part of the game.

Did I say something wasn't allowed?
I said you're reaching. I mean, you look as though you want people to suspect me, more than you look as though you suspect me.

EDIT: Said Cab where I should have said Cop above, fixed it. These names are too close!

[Rikae]

Argh. Sorry for sounding so nasty/sarcastic. I think I'd better call it a night.

[Coppermirror]

...I can't believe that Inzil just self-voted.

Anyway, I haven't been able to use my computer for most of the Day so far, so I haven't yet done the analysis I planned to do on McCaber or the second look at Inzil in light of Morsul being innocent and McCaber a wizard. Although Morsul being innocent makes me much more suspicious of Inzil, it's not as if it's a foregone conclusion that after checking through all the facts I'll be wanting to vote for him. And only Rikae had voted for him so far.

And now Inzil's just self-voted. Why? The village (um, troll group) is pretty small now, so if he's innocent, that's tantamount to throwing us to the wolves, er, wizards. Although being frustrated over Rikae (and to an extent, I suppose, me) going for him would understandable. And if he's a wizard, I suppose it could be either a way of pretending to be frustrated innocent, or a way of signaling to a wizard-mate that they shouldn't try to save him.

[Nogrod]

Now what is this tom-foolery?

But yes, Zil's self-vote looks quite bad as it is hard for me to see why on earth would an innocent troll do that kind of thing with such a low numbers of us left.

Sally's strong reaction looks like she's coming to save a fellow by attacking Rikae. Then again she voted for Pom on D1 at quite a critical moment which kind of makes her look better.

And Rikae clearly stays up too late (I should know how that affects one... ).


This is going to be interesting.

I'll try to check things like voting patterns - and finally skim through D3 and D4 - later toDay.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

...I can't believe that Inzil just self-voted.

Anyway, I haven't been able to use my computer for most of the Day so far, so I haven't yet done the analysis I planned to do on McCaber or the second look at Inzil in light of Morsul being innocent and McCaber a wizard. Although Morsul being innocent makes me much more suspicious of Inzil, it's not as if it's a foregone conclusion that after checking through all the facts I'll be wanting to vote for him. And only Rikae had voted for him so far.

And now Inzil's just self-voted. Why? The village (um, troll group) is pretty small now, so if he's innocent, that's tantamount to throwing us to the wolves, er, wizards. Although being frustrated over Rikae (and to an extent, I suppose, me) going for him would understandable. And if he's a wizard, I suppose it could be either a way of pretending to be frustrated innocent, or a way of signaling to a wizard-mate that they shouldn't try to save him.

If Zil and Rikae are both innocent, then there are five people left to vote, of whom two are wolves. So this would be an awfully bad time for an innocent to self-vote. (Not that Rikae's was great, either.)

Also, if Rikae is guilty after all, the tack Sally is now taking, we've been pretty much done for ever since Brinn died. Unfortunately that does happen sometimes– the Seer appearing to "clear" someone she hasn't actually dreamed– but there's little hope for the village in such a case, unless the supposed "known innocent" starts acting really suspiciously. As of the time of posting, I don't think that applies.

Originally Posted by Rikae

This is precisely why it is sometimes good for them to know, or think they know, who the hunter is.
Catch my drift?

Following that line of thought– is it possible the wolves had picked up "Hunter vibes" from Lottie? I had, for a couple of Days before that, though I can't put my finger on why. If they had, her views on guilt/innocence as of yesterDay might mean something– in the sense they would then likely pick a Night when she didn't seem to suspect any of them strongly. (This, you see, is sort of the opposite of looking at the views of a dead Seer.) Here (#567), with only twenty minutes to go, she says Nog would actually be her preferred lynch over Morsul, and that she is "very wary" of him, and this is the only really strong suspicion she gives that Day of anyone except Morsul himself.

This is making quite an assumption, though– this close to the endgame, they could have simply been more interested in getting rid of a difficult-to-lynch player.

[Nerwen]

Along the same lines as my last post: McCaber's death was
likely one for which the wolves had no contingency plans. Sure, at this stage in the game they'd be mad not to consider the risk one of them might fall to the Hunter (whether they'd actually picked Lottie's role or not). But I bet it was a nasty shock for them to wake up and find McCaber dead- he ought to have looked safe from a possible Hunter-Lottie last Night.

Relevance? Well, some desperate or weird behaviour wouldn't be surprising- this- if Zil is in fact a wolf- may explain the self-vote, which otherwise seems ill-advised regardless of role.

And, of course, one has to wonder about Sally now...

[Nerwen]

Still no-one around? This is getting dull. Why can't we have some competing reveals or something?

*sigh*

I suppose I should do some analyses of things. The Day One voting ought to look different now that we know two of the main contenders were wolves.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Still no-one around?
...
The Day One voting ought to look different now that we know two of the main contenders were wolves.

Just logged in and thought of going through the votes (and vote-timing!) now as we have some new information - and at least I have had only a vague idea of how the votes have gone of late as I haven't seen anyone making extensive tallies.

So I'm delving back into the thread.

If you're doing voting tallies with voting-times marked, please let me know Nerwen, so that we don't do the same work twice!

[Coppermirror]

I'm having computer trouble, so it may be a few hours before I can do anything useful. The weather is and has been so hot toDay that I don't dare leave my computer running for long. Maybe in an hour or so the temperature will cool down enough for it to be safe. Preferably before it gets to be daylight again...Anyway, assuming that happens I should be around later, since it's not as if I can sleep in this sort of weather either.

[Nogrod]

There needs to be a good reason for me to vote Copper: McCaberWizard and PomWizard voted for him in concerto on D1.

Okay, a crazy scenario: Copper is a wolf and they did it to save another fellow aka. Nerwen (with whom Copper tied with their two consecutive votes). But yes, I'm not going to take that one seriously, at least without further reasons to do so.

But that double-vote by the Wizards does does lead up to the question whether they then tried to save Nerwen there?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pomegranate

Agh, now I don't know what to think of Cab! I'd say he's jumping a bandwagon, but he says he crossed with me and Rikae earlier, in which case his suspicions are at least somewhat his own, rather than joining general change of suspicion. And I really need to go. Keep an eye on people going for Cop I'd say.

Haha!

This post led me to suspect Pom heavily on D1 - not firstly because he said "keep an eye on Cop-voters", but rather because it felt like she panicked for the double-vote on Copper. Now that we know the other voter was CabWizard, the panic looks more understandable. And she even kind of defends Cab there!

The question sure stays: is this panic coming from only them two voting the same innocent troll, or is there a further reason to panic aka. them trying to save a third?

[Inziladun]

All right, I had a moment when I thought people were already making up their minds I was guilty. I was tired, and the fact that Rikae of all people was leading the charge induced me to rashness.
For what it's worth, I wouldn't do it again.

I had wanted to see Rikae as innocent, but instead saw what appeared to be blatant hypocrisy in the way she'd treated those who suspected Morsul compared to her tunnel vision toward me.

[Nogrod]

Voting D1

-11h #58 Coppermirror--> Boro (1)
-10h #60 Morsul --> Kath (1)
-8.30h #67 Brinn--> Nerwen (1)
-7.30h #73 Gil--> Nerwen (2)

-2.43h #101 Cab--> Coppermirror (1)
-2.39h #102 Pom--> Coppermirror (2) [xd w/ 101]

-1.10h #122 Rikae--> McCaber (1)
-1.02h #125 Green--> McCaber (2) [xd w/ 122]
-.55h #127 Inziladun--> Pom (1) [xd w/ 125]
-.46h #130 Ozban--> McCaber (3) [xd w/ 125, 127]
-.42h #131 Loslote--> Pom (2)
-.26h #136 Boro --> Coppermirror (3)
-.19h #139 Volo --> Nerwen (3)
-.16 #141 Sally --> Pom (3)
-.07h #146 Shasta -->Pom (4)
-.02h #148 Nog --> McCaber (4)

Did not vote: Bane Mantra, "Bane", Kath, "Kat", Nerwen, "Nerve"

Based on D1: looks less suspicious
Copper – two Wizards went for him with voting
Zil – if he is a Wizard his vote for Pom looks a bit daring
Rikae – Brinn says it quite without doubt she looks genuine (unlike from anyone else), she suspects Pom &McCaber (and votes the latter)
Sally – Her vote on Pom brings her in as a serious contender for lynch (alongside McCaber who is already there)

Based on D1: looks more suspicious
Nerwen – by implication: could be the reason two Wizards voted for the easiest lynch candidate t the point she started gathering votes + the fact that Pom clearly panicked somewhat realising what had happened.


More to come... (this is slow indeed)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Nerwen – by implication: could be the reason two Wizards voted for the easiest lynch candidate t the point she started gathering votes + the fact that Pom clearly panicked somewhat realising what had happened.

Well, as I'm not a wolf, all I can say, it "could be"... except that it isn't. I think they both voted for Cop because she was, at that point, the only person "on the table" for whom a vote would look legitimate rather than a piece of obvious evil bandwaggonning.

[Nerwen]

See, having looked at the votes myself, in the light of knowing McCaber's role,
I no longer think the remaining Pom voters look so good as formerly.

It had already been said that Zil's was the safest of the four- you (Nog) turn this around and call it "daring", but why? Especially as, if you look at the actual discussion at time, there could have been no way of telling that Pom would soon be in major trouble. Her comment had raised eyebrows, but at the time he voted, no more than that, and everyone seemed to have moved on. It's all there on the page.

Sally's vote speaks much more for her innocence- nonetheless, supposing she is actually a wolf, we should remember that of the other waggons she could have climbed on at that point, one had attracted a lot of controversy, one already had two wolves in it- and the third was for McWolf anyway.

[Nerwen]

Meanwhile, though Nog's comment about further votes telling us something is still weird and nonsensical, it does change things now that we know the person he was tying with the wolf was another wolf.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, as I'm not a wolf, all I can say, it "could be"... except that it isn't. I think they both voted for Cop because she was, at that point, the only person "on the table" for whom a vote would look legitimate rather than a piece of obvious evil bandwaggonning.

That is exactly possible. As is that Brinn didn't dream of Rikae (), or that Kath actually is a wolf...

So, I said the voting on D1 makes you look "more suspicious" (by implication), not that I strongly believe you are a Wizard. But that's D1 only thus far.

I'd like to see the other Days' voting through before making any stronger claims on anyone's suspiciousness or unsuspiciousness.

D2 actually coming soon.


EDIT: X'd with Nerwen X2

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It had already been said that Zil's was the safest of the four- you (Nog) turn this around and call it "daring", but why?

Well, he could have voted for you or Copper easily to try to avoid McCaber -lynch were he a fellow-Wizard, but to put in another mate-in-crime (who had been suspected anyway) looks a bit unnecessary risk-taking.

And I did call it "a bit daring", not daring as such...

[Nogrod]

Voting D2

-6h #196 Nerwen -> Nog (1)
-5h #200 Oz -> Morsul (1)
-4.07h #210 McCaber -> Rikae (1)
-3.55h #212 Brinn -> Volo (1)
-3.09h #216 Lottie -> Morsul (2)
-2.39h #220 Gil -> Volo 2
- 1.34h #228 Rikae -> Oz

-.51 #237 Zil -> Oz 2
-.48h #239 Kath -> Morsul 3
-.44h #240 Morsul -> Oz 3
-.39h #241 Copper -> Oz 4
-.02 #264 Volo -> Oz 5
-.01 #265 Nog -> Morsul 4
-.01 #266 Sally -> Morsul 5

Did not vote: Greenie, Bane, Boro, Shasta


After the very interesting D1 with at least two Wizards in danger and one eventually lynched, D2 was kind of an anti-climax with two innocents competing for the lynch.

And sadly there looked to be more or less decent grounds for suspecting both of the two aka Oz and Morsul so the Wizards were able to lean back and relax. So I'm afraid there is little the voting (or the discussion) tells us from D2.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well, he could have voted for you or Copper easily to try to avoid McCaber -lynch were he a fellow-Wizard, but to put in another mate-in-crime (who had been suspected anyway) looks a bit unnecessary risk-taking.

And I did call it "a bit daring", not daring as such...

Well, maybe it would be a "bit daring", but wolf-on-wolf is always at least a "bit daring" unless the other wolf is clearly doomed. As I said, his was always the vote I'd thought would have been the safest from a wolf- the latest revelation certainly doesn't change that.

No, I'm not on a crusade against Zil- but once again, I think the Pom voters don't look quite so shiny now that we know McCaber was a wolf anyway.

EDIT: x'd with Nog.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But yes, Zil's self-vote looks quite bad as it is hard for me to see why on earth would an innocent troll do that kind of thing with such a low numbers of us left.

It really does. That's the reason I'm sitting here and scratching my head. An innocent Dun wouldn't do that, I don't think, but Rikae's behavior yesterDay has me suspecting her as well, and the idea of them planning this is maddening. There would be a lot for Rikae to gain by lynching a packmate toDay, and at this stage it's such a crazy idea that people may doubt she would take the risk.

I'm off to reread the thread (after I take care of a few things at work, that is). We'll see what conclusions I come to when I've finished.


But first, a complete voting history, so I (and the rest of you, I suppose ) have it handy.


DAY ONE
Coppermirror-->Boro
Morsul-->Kath
Brinn-->Nerwen
Gil-->Nerwen (2)
Cab-->Coppermirror
Pom-->Coppermirror (2)
Rikae-->McCaber
Green-->McCaber (2)
Inziladun-->Pom
Ozban-->McCaber (3)
Loslote-->Pom (2)
Boro-->Cop (3)
Volo-->Nerwen (3)
Sally-->Pom (3)
Shasta-->Pom (4)
Nog-->McCaber (4)

DAY TWO
Nerwen-->Nog
Oz-->Morsul
McCaber-->Rikae
Brinn-->Volo
Lottie-->Morsul (2)
Gil-->Volo (2)
Rikae-->Oz
Dun-->Oz (2)
Kath-->Morsul (3)
Morsul-->Oz (3)
Cop-->Oz (4)
Volo-->Oz (5)
Nog-->Morsul (4)
Sally-->Morsul (5)

DAY THREE
Rikae-->Rikae
Nerwen-->Rikae (2)
Morsul-->Rikae (3)
McCaber-->Morsul
Boromir-->Greenie
Lottie-->Nerwen
Gil-->Boro
Sally-->Morsul (2)
Cop-->Morsul (3)
Dun-->Gil
Greenie-->Boro (2)
Nog-->Boro (3)
Brinn-->Boro (4)
Kath-->Morsul (4)

DAY FOUR
Cop-->Gil
Nerwen-->Gil (2)
Sally-->Gil (3)
Rikae-->Gil (4)
Kath-->Sally
Cab-->Gil (5)
Morsul-->Sally (2)
Dun-->Gil (6)
Lottie-->Gil (7)
Nog-->Gil (8)

DAY FIVE
Morsul-->Sally
Cop-->Morsul
Zil-->Morsul (2)
Sally-->Morsul (3)
Cab-->Morsul (4)
Kath-->Sally (2)
Lottie-->Morsul (5)
Rikae-->Dun
Nog-->Sally (3)
Nerwen-->Morsul (6)

Known innocents italicized, known baddies underlined.


Off now. Back soon, I hope.


x'd since Nerwen's #631

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

It really does. That's the reason I'm sitting here and scratching my head. An innocent Dun wouldn't do that, I don't think, but Rikae's behavior yesterDay has me suspecting her as well, and the idea of them planning this is maddening. There would be a lot for Rikae to gain by lynching a packmate toDay, and at this stage it's such a crazy idea that people may doubt she would take the risk.

What I said- if Rikae is a wolf after all, we've aleady lost, because there's no way she's going to be lynched now unless she climbs the gallows and sticks her head in the noose. Or someone manages to make a truly damning case on her. Short of that, I think we just have to assume she's innocent now.

[Nogrod]

Going through D3 and finding things I had half-forgotten.

Now why the Wizards killed Volo? I still think the seer is the primary target of the baddies. But he suspected and voted Nerwen on D1 but on D2 kind of clears her and says he feels like he has "lost his case" on her.

Meanwhile he keeps on suspecting Rikae from D1 (even referring to her as Pom^2 on D2).

So if his first post that looked like a seer hint and his "testament" at the last minute of D2 were not enough, then, if Rikae was a Wizard, that could have been enough for them to feel the need to check him out?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No, I'm not on a crusade against Zil- but once again, I think the Pom voters don't look quite so shiny now that we know McCaber was a wolf anyway.

I do agree. I don't think Pom-voters are shiny - and neither are McCaber-voters as such. wolf-on-wolf does happen every now and then.

And I'm neither saying Zil's vote on D1 on Pom would overthrow my suspicions of him from his self-vote, which just doesn't make sense if he's innocent.


Thank's for the tallies Sally (almost rhymes!), they save me from some typing and I can look at where the interesting moments are if I realize I can't do all the Days (looks probable...).


EDIT: X'd with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Anyway, I will not be voting yet. Too much of a risk.