Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Rikae]

What if the wolves are alphabetically adjacent?

I could totally see a cobblerMac calculating the likelihood of that ... I'm guessing it's high.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Kath

But this relies on somebody actually voting the person Greenie potentially dreamed of. If nobody does, then the Dead Thread would have to go with a no-vote. So it means no useful empowerment AND no information on a wolf if Greenie did dream of one.

Why would it mean a no-vote? They can always empower a known innocent (Greenie should be able to give them a few by now), or even just someone they trust.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Guys... there's a potential known wolf waiting for us to be communicated from the dead. Knowing who that is by far outweighs the power of one single vote. And yeah, we will only know toMorrow, so what?

In either mine or Lommy's way, the medium vote is no longer used as a vote, but still has that effect and could potentially mess things up, that's true though. Maybe we can all make our voting intentions clear, with +- or otherwise, and then have an actual vote that is not close enough for the medium's vote to matter.

Because we need to lynch a wolf toDay, not toMorrow. ToMorrow may be too late. If we mislynch toDay and the Ranger fails to foil the Night kill it'll be 3:1:3 toMorrow - in which case the Wolves could just come out and call on the cobbler's support to lynch anybody they like.
I'm getting really really suspicious of Mac right now.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Because we need to lynch a wolf toDay, not toMorrow. ToMorrow may be too late. If we mislynch toDay and the Ranger fails to foil the Night kill it'll be 3:1:3 toMorrow - in which case the Wolves could just come out and call on the cobbler's support to lynch anybody they like.
I'm getting really really suspicious of Mac right now.

The could not, because the dead thread would be able to override them (depending on vote timing).

[Macalaure]

Didn't we kind of establish early on that we need to have a plan well before we get to the deadline, so that early-voting dead people know what to expect?

We are really screwing with that right now.

And I find it very enlightening that those who are criticizing right now (Pitch, Shasta, Rikae) are not offering any alternatives, therefore essentially foregoing the knowledge of one seer dream.

Yhgtbfkm.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Why would it mean a no-vote? They can always empower a known innocent (Greenie should be able to give them a few by now), or even just someone they trust

Yes they could. But, again, the innocents don't know anything. So trusting their vote may not help the village, and so the Dead Thread wouldn't necessarily want to empower them.

As I recall, the innocents don't know anything was a refrain of yours last game ...

[Kath]

And constant changing of a plan can only cause confusion. We now have two lists, suggestions of pre voting, maybe the Dead Thread can empower an innocent voter. It's all over the place! Perfect way to stop the Seer being able to communicate a potential known wolf.

[Brinniel]

I agree this is a mess. We're so focused on strategy for the Dead Thread, that we've sort of lost focus on evaluating the players in the living thread. I'm sure there's a wolf among this talk, but I'm not sure who.

I have to run to a meeting, but will be back later.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Didn't we kind of establish early on that we need to have a plan well before we get to the deadline, so that early-voting dead people know what to expect?

We are really screwing with that right now.

And I find it very enlightening that those who are criticizing right now (Pitch, Shasta, Rikae) are not offering any alternatives, therefore essentially foregoing the knowledge of one seer dream.

Yhgtbfkm.

We have three hours, better now than later/never. Okay, alternative suggestion:

If night 4 dream = innocent, no vote
If night 4 dream = wolf, as follows:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitch is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Brinniel.
If Sally is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Shasta is a wolf, empower Sally.
If Nilp is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Lommy is a wolf, empower Rikae.

Or some other arrangement that pairs people who are unlikely to be wolves together.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

The could not, because the dead thread would be able to override them (depending on vote timing).

Right. Thank Goddess for small favours.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

And I find it very enlightening that those who are criticizing right now (Pitch, Shasta, Rikae) are not offering any alternatives, therefore essentially foregoing the knowledge of one seer dream.

What about 'If you have a known wolf, empower a person suspecting them'? This wouldn't just tell us about their lupinity for toMorrow, but actually help us to lynch them toDay.
As in, 'If Mac is a wolf, empower Pitch.'

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Yhgtbfkm.

Wrong game. Shadow over Innsmouth was 10 years ago.

Originally Posted by Kath

As I recall, the innocents don't know anything was a refrain of yours last game ...

Different song, different refrain.

[Macalaure]

What I liked about alphabetical order is that the alphabet is essentially random. Any custom order could come from a wolf. Maybe Nilp should make one up?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

As in, 'If Mac is a wolf, empower Pitch.'

Because everybody only has one single suspect. And what if the one in question is not suspected at all? It would be especially good to know in that case!

[Thinlómien]

I agree it's pretty weird that we agreed we need a plan, and everybody seemed to be okay with Mac's, and then suddenly people start questioning it a few hours before the deadline? If we make it into toMorrow, we really need the known wolf if there is any. It's not like the numbers are going to be great then, either.

So what if we stick to the list and make a plan b?

Say, if the dead didn't vote in agreement to our list, one of the dead innocent makes their post count some number we agree on (33? 66?) until one of us notices it and points it out on the game thread? Or if we aren't allowed to read the post counts, say we pick one of the dead and an arbitrary time they're likely to be around timezonewise (say Lottie and one hour after dl toMorrow) and tell the dead that if they didn't vote according to the list, make sure Lottiehas the last post at one hour after the dl toMorrow until someone has pointed it out on this thread? And if a few minutes past one hour after the dl the last post keeps oscillating between Lottie and Legate , we know the dead wolf is just trolling.

TL;DR: let's stick to Mac's list and find a way for the dead to communicate if they decided to ignore it and instead empower in a way to direct the lynch toDay. Simple?


edit: xed with everyone after Kath

[satansaloser2005]

Back and thinking we should use the original list for toDay so we don't muck anything up for the dead thread.

I'm all for Nilp making a list though! At least we'd know he didn't have any ulterior motives.


x'd with Lommy

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

What I liked about alphabetical order is that the alphabet is essentially random. Any custom order could come from a wolf. Maybe Nilp should make one up?

Ditto. I don't see a reason why Rikae's subjective interpretation is better than randomness. Rikae, are you perhaps making shoes for a living?

[Kath]

I liked alphabetical because it didn't allow for any bias on the part of the person making up the list. Yes, a wolf-Mac might know that two wolves are alphabetically linked, but it still relies on Greenie having actually dreamt of that particular person who links alphabetically. I mean if the Dead Thread were that worried about that, they could just go for a no vote regardless.

I just ... concrete information would be the most useful.

I find myself in agreement with Mac and in opposition to particularly Pitch and a bit less Rikae and Shasta. That kind of naturally pushes me to feeling ok about Mac and not good about Pitch.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Ditto. I don't see a reason why Rikae's subjective interpretation is better than randomness. Rikae, are you perhaps making shoes for a living?

Mac wanted suggestions. I said "or some other order that pairs people who aren't likely to be wolves together". Do you disagree that those people are less likely packmates, or am I just cobblerish for sticking my neck out and giving a concrete example?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Say, if the dead didn't vote in agreement to our list, one of the dead innocent makes their post count some number we agree on (33? 66?) until one of us notices it and points it out on the game thread? Or if we aren't allowed to read the post counts, say we pick one of the dead and an arbitrary time they're likely to be around timezonewise (say Lottie and one hour after dl toMorrow) and tell the dead that if they didn't vote according to the list, make sure Lottiehas the last post at one hour after the dl toMorrow until someone has pointed it out on this thread? And if a few minutes past one hour after the dl the last post keeps oscillating between Lottie and Legate , we know the dead wolf is just trolling.

TL;DR: let's stick to Mac's list and find a way for the dead to communicate if they decided to ignore it and instead empower in a way to direct the lynch toDay. Simple?

No.[\burrahobbit]

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I agree it's pretty weird that we agreed we need a plan, and everybody seemed to be okay with Mac's, and then suddenly people start questioning it a few hours before the deadline? If we make it into toMorrow, we really need the known wolf if there is any. It's not like the numbers are going to be great then, either.

So what if we stick to the list and make a plan b?

You started it!!!!!

A plan b would be helpful though. I'm not sure post counts is quite in the spirit of the game though. But I will leave that up to Boro-Mod.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Back and thinking we should use the original list for toDay so we don't muck anything up for the dead thread.

I'm all for Nilp making a list though! At least we'd know he didn't have any ulterior motives.


x'd with Lommy

So ... you're for using the first list, but having multiple other lists floating around for no reason than to muddle the message? Mmmkay.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I said "or some other order that pairs people who aren't likely to be wolves together". Do you disagree that those people are less likely packmates, or am I just cobblerish for sticking my neck out and giving a concrete example?

To be fair, I have no idea who's more or less likely to be fellow wolves together. You and Pitch seems unlikely to me, and I agree with you about Brinn/Kath. But otherwise? No idea. I don't see your list as being significantly better than Mac's, and I don't trust you enough to take your word for there being credit to all those combos.

Furthermore I think this discussion is a diversion from the fact that we DO. NEED. TO. LYNCH. A. WOLF. TODAY. so personally I'm gonna go with Mac's list, suggest the dead thread do the same, and return to the question of plan B in case the DT don't want to follow a list once Boro replied my question about post count viewing.

So really. Anyone else who's innocent, I strongly urge you to settle for Mac's list despite its possible flaws and ditch this discussion and focus your energies on finding wolves. We're getting too sidetracked.


edit: xed with everyone

[Macalaure]

There are 84 possible wolf packs, 55 of which have some alphabetical adjacency. Math has spoken.

[Macalaure]

I should add that the probabilities are the same for whatever other order one were to come up with.

[Macalaure]

People who don't want the communication to work: Cobbler and any wolf who is likely to be Greenie's target.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

So ... you're for using the first list, but having multiple other lists floating around for no reason than to muddle the message? Mmmkay.

I mean, I'm less and less trustful of anything you're posting, so technically yes, but not really.

I'm saying let's go with what was first presented for TODAY, and continue discussing options for toMorrow. What I said was pretty clear.


x'd since the post I quoted

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I should add that the probabilities are the same for whatever other order one were to come up with.

They're not, because another order wouldn't be random. Not all packs are equally likely at this point!

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I mean, I'm less and less trustful of anything you're posting, so technically yes, but not really.

I'm saying let's go with what was first presented for TODAY, and continue discussing options for toMorrow. What I said was pretty clear.


x'd since the post I quoted

Tomorrow, this whole discussion won't be relevant. There won't be any more seer dreams after the Night 4 one.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Rikae

They're not, because another order wouldn't be random. Not all packs are equally likely at this point!

True, but who would you trust enough to make one up? We don't have the time to do it by committee. The only one would be Nilp, and he's apparently not around.

[Macalaure]

*mutterandthisiswhyiwantedtodothisfirstthingmutter *

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

People who don't want the communication to work: Cobbler and any wolf who is likely to be Greenie's target.

A communication method that misuses the dead vote could get an ordo lynched and essentially win the wolves the game, but okay.

[Macalaure]

We're getting closer to the point where all this becomes moot. We need to decide now.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

*mutterandthisiswhyiwantedtodothisfirstthingmutter *

And I saw the problem with it then but was hesitant to bring it up for exactly this reason, any discussion gets accused of "muddling". But since I'm not the only one who saw a problem I thought maybe we could improve it some and avoid the drawback I saw (the alphabetical list pairs people I think are likely to be wolves together, in fact).

It wouldn't be muddling if we'd clearly highlight an official list at a reasonable hour, but at this point we are running out of time to do that, and most of the delay comes from people getting upset the discussion is happening at all!

[Macalaure]

Fine then. This is not worth arguing about from my point of view.

DEAD PEEPS - USE RIKAE'S LIST!

[Kath]

Yeah ok let's go for consensus. If the Dead Thread hate the list they can just vote no Medium.

Rikae's list it is.

[satansaloser2005]

It's better to use something we already had standing earlier in the day. Nilp seemed okay with Mac's list. No one has really given any good reasons why the list wouldn't work. Yes, maybe Mac is manipulating things because he's a wolf. That could be true of anyone except Nilp. The list is alphabetical, not randomly organized, so I think it's a fair list to use for this purpose. If we want to get more information from the dead thread toMorrow, we can use a different list. I don't care. But let's not change what we're doing when the dead thread may not be able to adjust to a change.

x'd since my last

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Look, I just think with 5 good votes to 4 evil ones right now, using the Medium vote for information only could be what tips the scale here. If there's a way to do both (info AND as vote strength) I'm all for it.

I do think anyone wanting to have a "no vote" is misguided at best and wolvish at worst. We do not have that luxury.

[Rikae]

Oh dear ... Sally has a point.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It isn't overstating it to say that we're in a position where if a good votes another good we straight-up lose.

[Kath]

So I think Pitch actually might be the Cobbler after all given his posting.

Mac is on much the same lines as me which is making me inclined to trust him.

Lommy is driving me insane and that feels like normal so I guess I feel ok about her.

Nilp I am going on trust as the BH.

Leaving me with Brinn, Rikae, sally and Shasta.

[satansaloser2005]

Well, we've made our bed, now let's lie in it. I hope the dead thread can make it work, or we're all potentially very dead.

[Thinlómien]

Seriously dudes. What the [censored]. Can you Rikae and Mac agree on a list since you got us into this mess. Please. I'm gonna wash my hands of this.

I'm in the middle of writing an analysis about everybody's interactions toDay (which I will post when I'm done) and I feel like I'm having a bit of revelation. Could you Mac, Rikae and Pitch please stop squabbling if you're all innocent (I understand one of you might be the cobbler and intentionally messing around) and answer me (Kath can also answer, I almost trust you now funnily enough and hey Nilp, sure if you're around!) but:

Brinn / Shasta / Sally pack, anyone? Nicely flying under our radars the whole time? Scarcely mentioning each other? It suddenly makes a lot of sense to me.

Thoughts?


edit: xed with the last 3 posts