Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Lalaith]

Got up this morning at 7am to keep my promise of voting early, and the site was down.
Anyway, back in now, haven't got time to read everything thoroughly, but it looks like I'm in with a chance of voting still...
I'm with the majority for a double lynch, in which case, this seems to be the right thing to do:
++GLIRDAN

[Lalaith]

A little bit of housekeeping to while away this oddly quiet and uneventful (ie no close-of-vote) morning:

Lynchee candidates (+ who voted)

Tgwbs (3 - Thinlomien, Celuien, lmp)
Glirdan (3 - Samwise, Tar-ancalime, Lalaith)
Naria (2 - TGWBS, Form)

Still to vote:
Cailin
Caranlondien
Valier
Naria
Gurthang
Glirdan

Did not post yesterday (I think!)
Naria, Glirdan

For the record, I hadn't seen Form's vote for Naria when I voted. But I would probably have voted the same way anyway, as the majority consensus seemed to incline to Glirdan being the second lynchee.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Just a little note guys: in football there's a saying- play the whistle. What do I mean? Basically just keep voting up until Nilp ends day. If he strikes your vote so be it, but I don't think he will. Also for the purposes of vote analysis later it'll be helpful.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

As the ship of Arien returned to its Western dock, the village was struck with a dreadful storm. For a few hours, the very existence of Ened-in-Nowhere was frozen. No one was able to do anything, save stand where they are and wonder what was happening. Finally, the malign power holding the village hostage loosed its grasp, and Formendacil and Lalaith rushed in to cast their votes.

And so the village has chosen Glirdan and the guy who be short as their lynchees. tar-ancalime, divining the will of the Mod God, summoned a giant tree-frog. The villagers (save Celuien) took the Nilp fan and stuffed him into its mouth. The frog suffered a horrible death, suffocated by the short hirstute person. Coincidentally, the Nilp impersonator died, too, suffocating in the airless alimentary canal of the amphibian.

After taking daga'y's body out of the tree-frog, they saw him with an exasperated--but contented--smile on his face. He had died as his idol had, an innocent lynched.

The villagers frowned as they turned to Glirdan. They had that one wrong! What about this one? They thought twice whether to kill him or not until in impatience the Mod God sent a fireball that struck the unemployed bum.

The scroll of the census was changed:

Nilpaurion Felagund, the Prophet of the Mod God, was lynched by suspicious means on the first NIGHT.
Garin, an Ordinary Villager, was lanced like a boil on the the first DAY.
Anguirel, an Ordinary Villager, was massacred by were-hedgehogs on the second NIGHT.
Eonwe, an Ordinary Villager, was struck by lightning, struck by lightning! on the second DAY.
dancing spawn of ungoliant, a Seer, was taken away on the third NIGHT.
Kath, a Werewolf, was accidentally strangled on the third DAY
Lhunardawen, the Werewolf Beloved, died with his Lover on the third DAY
Farael, the Lover, died defending his Beloved on the third DAY
Eomer of the Rohirrim, an Ordinary Villager, was poked with woodwinds on the fourth NIGHT.
the guy who be short, an Ordinary Villager, was stuffed into a tree-frog on the fourth DAY.
Glirdan, an Ordinary Villager, was consumed by fire from the Mod God on the fourth DAY.

Those alive are:

Caranlondien, a lumberjack
tar-ancalime, a witch
Cailín, the town gossip
Celuien, a psychiatrist
Naria, a midwife who goes ever so slightly mad with each birth
Valier, a small, sweet sheep-shearer
Lalaith, a rich young widow
Thinlómien, a mushroom-picker
Formendacil, an unemployed person
littlemanpoet, a stone-cutter
Gurthang, an arrowsmith
SamwiseGamgee, the town bank manager

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

After the strange blizzard yesterDAY, Celuien, the friendly neighbourhood psychiatrist, was leafing through her books to check whether the weather had any Jungian significance, when there came a loud knock on her door.

'We're not opening 'til tomorrow morning! Your neuroses could probably wait until then, couldn't it?'

The knocker may have been deaf, or perhaps persistent, because his knocking didn't stop. Celuien angrily left her seat and stormed off to her door. When she had opened it . . .

~*~

The next DAY, the villagers were surprised to see that the resident shrink hasn't opened shop. Fearing some foul deed, the villager decided to break in. Caranlondien took her chainsaw and sawed through the wooden door. The villagers glanced inside.

They saw a giant lidded metal pot. Lifting the lid, they saw Celuien, deep-fried in olive oil and garnished with Interpretation of Dreams, Totem and Taboo, and The Ego and the Id.

The scroll of the census was changed:

Nilpaurion Felagund, the Prophet of the Mod God, was lynched by suspicious means on the first NIGHT.
Garin, an Ordinary Villager, was lanced like a boil on the the first DAY.
Anguirel, an Ordinary Villager, was massacred by were-hedgehogs on the second NIGHT.
Eonwe, an Ordinary Villager, was struck by lightning, struck by lightning! on the second DAY.
dancing spawn of ungoliant, a Seer, was taken away on the third NIGHT.
Kath, a Werewolf, was accidentally strangled on the third DAY
Lhunardawen, the Werewolf Beloved, died with his Lover on the third DAY
Farael, the Lover, died defending his Beloved on the third DAY
Eomer of the Rohirrim, an Ordinary Villager, was poked with woodwinds on the fourth NIGHT.
the guy who be short, an Ordinary Villager, was stuffed into a tree-frog on the fourth DAY.
Glirdan, an Ordinary Villager, was consumed by fire from the Mod God on the fourth DAY.
Celuien, an Ordinary Villager, was 'Freud' alive on the fifth NIGHT.

Those alive are:

Caranlondien, a lumberjack
tar-ancalime, a witch
Cailín, the town gossip
Naria, a midwife who goes ever so slightly mad with each birth
Valier, a small, sweet sheep-shearer
Lalaith, a rich young widow
Thinlómien, a mushroom-picker
Formendacil, an unemployed person
littlemanpoet, a stone-cutter
Gurthang, an arrowsmith
SamwiseGamgee, the town bank manager

[Thinlómien]

Oh s**t. I was wrong again. I thought Celuien was a wolf. i was even pretty sure about that thinking about it whole RL yesterday. well, at least I don't have to waste time in analysing her. Our poor psychiatrist.

The question why was she killed is rather interesting. I don't believe the wolves believed her to be the seer. Rather I think she was killed because she wasn't particularly suspected by anyone.

[Cailín]

Why, I am baffled.

I was fairly certain Glirdan was a wolf -though I did not know about TGWBS- and for the record, would have supported the now rather depressing double-lynch had I not been struck by that strange paralysis spell.

And Celuien? That does surprise me. She was not one of the people most of us categorised innocent and was clearly suspicious of both lynchees yesterday. Would she not have dreamt of one of them if she were the Seer? Or maybe she was killed for another reason that I fail to grasp... I must look over her posts again, I fear.

I am still inclined to think Naria innocent. Especially since Celuien did defend her yesterDay, if I remember correctly... well, I am not sure - another thing we/I need to look into. I am a little suspicious of Formendacil who voted for Naria, even though her true identity remains unsure. I personally found the evidence against Glirdan (poor man) far more convincing.

I will look over a few things. In the meantime: do we think the Seer should reveal him/herself yet if he/she knows a few innocents by now? Or wait a little while longer?

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

The question why was she killed is rather interesting. I don't believe the wolves believed her to be the seer. Rather I think she was killed because she wasn't particularly suspected by anyone.

But why not then Gurthang or tar-ancalime, who we almost unanimously cleared of guilt? A mystery. I do believe they thought her the Seer. Celuien was one of the people most of us were still 'unsure' about.

[Lalaith]

do we think the Seer should reveal him/herself yet if he/she knows a few innocents by now? Or wait a little while longer

I think that depends entirely what the Seer thinks and what s/he knows already. I also think, bearing this in mind, that it might be a good idea to hold off voting for as long as possible today. It would be awful if the Seer arrived late (let us say s/he happens to be in a later timezone) to find votes already stacked against him/her, and was forced to reveal him/herself.

More later, I need my breakfast....

[Lalaith]

now rather depressing double-lynch

yes, it was depressing, not just because we lynched two innocents but because of the technical troubles yesterday, the voting tells us so little. Nobody, neither wolves nor innocents, knew when the site would come back or the voting would end, for example, and so many people didn't vote.

Anyway, I think a good look at what Celuien has said is in order.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Cailín

But why not then Gurthang or tar-ancalime, who we almost unanimously cleared of guilt? A mystery. I do believe they thought her the Seer. Celuien was one of the people most of us were still 'unsure' about.

That's what I wonder. This might point to the wolvishness of Gurth or tar-a. I think there wasn't anything seerish in her. Or maybe I'm just blind. But I don't suspect Gurth and tar-a. I'm just confused about this Celuien-issue. This leads to another theory. Maybe she was killed just to cause confusion. at least that's the effect of her death on me. Confusion.

About Glirdy and TGWBS; I suspected both of them slightly, TGWBS more than Glirdy. Though I wasn't sure or even determined about either one. And just for the record: I didn't want a double-lynch though I wasn't heavily against it. I still can't see how the villagers profit from double-lynchings unless the lynch-candidates are both very suspicious. And that's a rare case.

[Lalaith]

I can't see how the wolves would dare let anyone they suspected being a Seer live. If they really had no idea who the Seer was, they would have killed Gurthang, who we nearly all said we trusted, yesterday.
As you say, Lommy, this could point to Gurth being guilty after all, despite all evidence to the contrary. But Celuien as Seer suspect just seems more likely. I'm off to examine her posts.

PS One thing to bear in mind is that as of yesterDay, there are just two wolves but they knew they could trust each other. This was not the case before Lhuna's death.

[Thinlómien]

I skimmed through Celuien's posting. She suspected both Lhuna and Kath. A thing that surely matters. She was one of the first Kath-suspectors. That surely might tell us something.

[littlemanpoet]

The werewolves were playing us (innocents) off against the Lovers; of this we can be sure. That means that whoever voted for Lhuna is more likely to be a werewolf than whoever voted for Kath. That does not exonerate those who voted for Kath, but the likelihood of their innocence is greater than the Lhuna voters. Granted, that does not make me look very good, but I can live with that.

[Cailín]

Thinlómien… Before I continue, I'd like to explain why double-lynching is more beneficial in principle (though admittedly, there is a slight flaw that has to do with the Seer). If we had not lynched Glirdan or TGWBS yesterDay, we would probably have done so toDay as they were the most suspicious characters. This would give the wolves two nightly kills instead of one. If we as villagers can double-lynch, we hold the power. The only downside is that the Seer only has one dream per three people dying. That makes me unsure whether we should double-lynch toDay. Actually, I think not.

Caranlondien
tar-ancalime
Cailín
Naria
Valier
Lalaith
Thinlómien
Formendacil
littlemanpoet
Gurthang
SamwiseGamgee

Amidst these people are still two werewolves.

I know I am not one. I am not certain about anyone else. My intuition tells me Caranlondien, tar-ancalime and Gurthang are innocent and I will consider them so for the moment.

Naria was under suspicion yesterDay. TGWBS -known ordinary- voted for her, as well as Formendacil. Celuien analysed her and came up with nothing. The general consensus was suspicious, quiet, cryptic and yet not overly so. I'd love to hear more from her toDay. I remain undecided.

Valier is quiet. Too quiet. I do not suspect her, really, but I need more active participation.

Lalaith is a controversial person. She seems genuine, and yet she is known for her ability to stay under the radar. I will go through her posts again toDay.

Thinlomien… I do still suspect her a little. Skimming through her posts, I see she has brought up quite a lot of theories and disagrees with them immediately afterwards (her legendary indecisiveness I presume), but none of the things she says particularly make sense. Sorry, Lommy, I just don't quite follow your stream of thoughts. Now I don't know whether swaying is Lommy's style or not -having never played with her before- but I'd normally suspect anyone behaving in such a matter. But - the cluelessness that shimmers through her posts leads me to believe she is innocent again. So I guess I am indecisive as well.

Formendacil seems more innocent as the days go by. His vote for Naria yesterDay was rather safe, and yet he expected more people to vote than who eventually did, so he might really have been pushing for a lynch of someone he just thought more likely to be wolfish. He did from the start say he did not consider TGWBS or Glirdan specially wolfish… so he has been consistent and maybe perhaps right in the end. His vote for Kath earlier was very innocent looking, too. If Formendacil is a wolf, he is playing a remarkably cunning game. I know he is smart, but is he that smart? Possibly. I shan't be underestimating him.

Littlemanpoet… recent events make him look less good. He's eager to point them out himself, though. He seems like ever - remarkably self-assured and convinced of his own insight (). His persecution of Guy yesterDay was too strong to be wolvish, and yet littlemanwolf(?) has been in a rather safe, unsuspected position thus far, allowing him to be more frank. I must analyse him toDay - yet find him still not overly suspicious.

SamwiseGamgee I just don't get at all. While he does seem innocent, his vote for Lhunardawen was the most suspicious one of the Day. Seeing he was all in agreement with Eomer over the double-lynch thing, I would have thought he'd vote for Kath or Farael at that point. Also, twice in a row SamwiseGamgee's 'buddy' has been eaten by wolves (Eomer is obvious, Celuien and he had some friendly exchanges yesterDay). Anyone volunteer to analyse this banker?

[Lalaith]

Here goes. This is LONG, but hopefully thorough. Thank goodness Celuien didn’t post that much this game.
First post: in character. Says she thinks the wolves will spot the lovers first, and someone coming out strongly against a villager could be a wolf turning on a traitor. She’ll look out for pairs. Says, in character, that Lommy’s visits are protected by patient confidentiality, and she cannot disclose their content without risking her license. Says she has no “psychic powers, delusions of grandeur or romantic involvements” This comment might have been picked up by wolves as protesting too much?
Second post: more character. Agrees with me about the amount of lunacy in village, points to Anguirel’s delusions. (Again, this might be mistaken as Seerish, she knows Ang’s Seerish claims are delusions?) Valier and Guy are unlikely lovers, lovers are unlikely to hint. Thinks they are both innocent. Is worried about Eomer, but wants to know more about his strategy so won’t vote for him.
Third post: this was her “men only” analysis that I picked up on earlier. Thinks Garin is overly defensive. Then goes through nearly all the other men: Form, Lmp, Glirdan, Farael, Ang, Eonwe, Gurthang, Samwise, and – hmmm… doesn’t find any of them suspicious. This is quite interesting. I actually thought this a rather wolfish post at the time, analysing everyone and not coming to any conclusions. (On the other hand, at this point the Seers could only have dreamt of one person, and the wolves knew this.)
4th: votes for Garin, for his defensiveness and possible backfiring-suicide strategy. Apologises.
Fifth post: nothing important.
Sixth post: says she understood Eomer’s plan. Thinks Ang was mistaken for a Seer by the wolves, also killed because he was smart. Names the following as probable innocents: Guy, LMP, Eomer, spawn, tar-a and Form.
Then says she wants to look more closely at Kath, Farael and Glirdan.
Seventh post: comes back with doubts about Kath’s behaviour but doesn’t know if its enough to vote for her. Was going to look at Glirdan and Farael but is now struck by Eonwe’s odd behaviour.
Eighth post: tabulates vote count. Doesn’t particularly suspect Farael or Glirdan. Doesn’t particularly suspect anyone, doesn’t want to throw away her vote. Will wait to vote to prevent double lynching.
Triple post: Reminds Caranlondien that odd behaviour (this time in the case of Guy) often indicates innocence. Then tells Samwise that the ordo-lover wouldn’t masquerade as seer for fear of wolf-attack. Then wonders if Samwise’s outrage at lmp over the lover question isn’t annoyance at having lover-tactics revealed.
Then after this, comes back and votes for Samwise for his village-polling. Says she may vote for Eonwe tomorrow, and thinks I (Lalaith) bear watching.

Next day. Spawn has been killed by wolves.
Gives three possibilities – that spawn was killed for her correct suspicion of Kath and/or Lhuna, that it was done to even out the male/female ratio, or that Kath and Lhuna were being framed by wolves. Likes double-lynch plan but doesn’t want to do the Guy male-lynching plan. Thinks there is at least one female wolf. Likes lmp’s idea that Farael is just going after his suspect whole-hog (rather than being a lover on the defensive, which was of course the true case).
Comes back, finds Lhuna very suspicious. Notices the “back and forth” between spawn and Lhuna on the first day, thinks that might have triggered a Lhuna dream. But has alternative explanation and so wants to wait ( I assume she was worried that Lhuna might be the other seer. This was something I was worried about too and had already alluded to.)
Then mentions Valier’s “I don’t eat sheep” remark to Guy, but in a neutral way.
Comes back with voting update. Says she will vote for Lhuna unless we are still wanting a double lynch. Then says she’s actually more comfortable about voting for Kath. Also because village needs a Kath vote to co-ordinate double-lynch, and because of not wanting to vote for Lhuna before she’s spoken. Votes for Kath.
YesterDay: praises Eomer. Answers my question about the men-only analysis, says that was just a coincidence. Says she thinks LMP is innocent. Is suspicious of Guy.
Comes back with long breakdown of all Glirdan’s posts.(Post 536, if anyone wants a closer look) Concludes that he is suspicious. Doesn’t think the previous day’s voting tells us much.
Again she protests LMP’s innocence, and also this time Gurthang’s.
Next post, she’s mainly talking to tar-a. Apologises for getting a couple of Glirdan points wrong. Says “support for Caranlondien stands”, don’t quite know what she means by this. Then some discussion about the pros and cons of Guy’s Plan which I don’t really understand. Says she was against the Plan for diverting attention away from the women.
Wonders about Eomer’s suspicion of Glirdan, could he have got three out three right? (We now know the answer is no).
Now thinks Guy is probably innocent..
Next post is a big one, analysing lots of people’s posts. Thinks Guy’s actions the day before were very suspicious. Wonders if Eomer was trying to hide the real Seer. She says in passing that she thinks Naria is innocent. Is puzzled by Guy, thinks he felt guilty the day before and innocent today. (Quite right, I felt the same way) Thinks she will vote for either Guy or Glirdan.
Then moves on to analyse Naria. Repeats that she’s not suspicious.
Then votes for Guy. Apologises. Supports double lynch of Glirdan “if suspicion continues to hold”.
Some joshing with Samwise about double-posting.

Conclusion: If the wolves did think Celuien is the Seer, then LMP, and probably Naria and Gurthang, are innocents. I find little evidence of new wolvish candidates here, however, except possibly Samwise.

Sorry Cailin, haven't had time to read your most recent post. Will do so now.

[Cailín]

Conclusion: If the wolves did think Celuien is the Seer, then LMP, and probably Naria and Gurthang, are innocents. I find little evidence of new wolvish candidates here, however, except possibly Samwise.

Thanks Lalaith - very thorough.

However, I disagree with your conclusion. If the wolves thought Celuien the Seer, it would make Samwise (in principle) look less suspicious since Celuien did not pursue her suspicions any further, which she would have done if she had dreamt of Wolf-Samwise. It rather suggests a dream of Samwise and finding him innocent. Though Celuien was not the Seer of course; but it certainly does not make Samwise look more lupine. I hope that made sense.

I agree with the rest of your conclusion, but we cannot trust Celuien's words blindly.

[Lalaith]

No, of course Celuien knew no more than any other innocent ord. But we have to presume that if the wolves thought she was the Seer, she must have got something right.
I think that what she got "right" was more likely to be someone's innocence than someone's guilt.

[Gurthang]

Well, I've gotten up early to post an analysis I typed up yesterday; I'll put it up shortly, after I remove Celuien's name. I am also puzzled by the wolves choice, which, among other reasons, may have been why they chose her: to confuse us. Only time will tell.

I would also like to apologize for not voting yesterday. For what it's worth, I was highly suspicious about Glirdan and probably would have voted for him; I don't know if I would have supported a double or not. Turns out I would have been wrong either way.

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

The werewolves were playing us (innocents) off against the Lovers; of this we can be sure. That means that whoever voted for Lhuna is more likely to be a werewolf than whoever voted for Kath. That does not exonerate those who voted for Kath, but the likelihood of their innocence is greater than the Lhuna voters. Granted, that does not make me look very good, but I can live with that.

I agree with this entirely, and one part of my analysis (my next post) is based on this.

[Gurthang]

Okay, bear with me on this, because this is going to be long. Seeing as most of our suspects (all five of them) have been killed in the last two days, I've decided to do my own analysis of everyone by using... unconventional methods. Well, maybe not so much unconventional as not often used. After each part, I'll list who I find innocent and who I find suspicious from each part. If I'm undecided on any person, then they won't be in either list. Anyway, I hope I can make sense of it when I'm done. (Oh, and keep in mind that I typed most of this up during the Night.)


Part 1: Gut Instinct

Laugh all you want, but I've found that my gut can sometimes be more trustworthy than my brain. So, I thought I'd give my gut some say and here's what it says:

Feels innocent:
Cailín
Formendacil
SamwiseGamgee

Feels suspicious:
Caranlondien
Naria
Valier
LMP


Part 2: Day 3 Voting

Here's the facts(courtesy of TGWBS's post):
Known innocents in italics; known enemies in bold.

1. Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
2. TGWBS --> Farael (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1)
3. Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
4. Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
5. Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
6. Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
7. Celuien --> Kath (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
8. Kath --> Lhuna (Lhuna 5 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
9. Caranlondien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
10. Tar-Ancalime --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 3)
11. Glirdan --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
12. LMP --> Lhuna (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
13. Farael --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 5)
14. Valier --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 6)
15. Naria --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 7)
16. Cailín --> No one (Lhuna 7 - Farael 1 - Kath 7)
16. Lhuna --> Kath (Lhuna 7, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)
17. Gurthang -> Lhuna (Lhuna 8, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)

Okay, to me, it would seem logical that the wolves, being the (presumably) intelligent evil beings that they are, would see that there was a lot of suspicion for Lhuna going into the Day. Knowing this, and maybe even thinking she was the female lover, they would probably turn on her. Meaning that the other wolves probably voted for Lhuna. On the other hand, I sincerely doubt that they would put Kath on the platform. It would be to easy for the wolves to just bandwagon onto Lhuna, rather than make the unnecessary sacrifice of voting for another wolf. This also makes LMP's vote look questionable, because, if we wanted to double lynch, then we would need to keep the votes close, and he tried to make the gap wider when we really needed some votes for Kath.

So, from the voting on Day 3:

Looks innocent:
Formendacil
tar-ancalime
Valier
Naria
Cailín


Looks suspicious:
LMP
Thin
Lalaith
SamwiseGamgee
Caranlondien
Gurthang
(I know I'm innocent, but you guys don't, so my name will stay.)


Part 3: First Day Mentionings

I would think that, especially on the first Day, that wolves would avoid either accusing or defending each other directly. I just think they'd avoid mentioning each other at all. So, here are what we know about who named who on the first day. (I will list only those who are still alive.)

Mentioned Lhuna or Kath
Cailín
LMP
Gurthang
Formendacil
Thin (Only to state crossposting)

Mentioned by Lhuna or Kath
Lalaith
Naria

Did not mention or was not mentioned by Lhuna or Kath
Caranlondien
tar-ancalime
Valier
SamwiseGamgee

I believe that's right. I scanned through the first day thrice. Lhuna and Kath only had about 7 posts total between them, so there wasn't much there. I don't think I missed anyone talking about them, though. I also won't put someone in the 'looks innocent' category simply for having the word Lhuna or Kath in their post; it needs to be a decent mention. So, assuming my research to be correct:

Looks innocent:
Lalaith
Naria
Formendacil
LMP

Looks suspicious:
Caranlondien
tar-ancalime
Valier
SamwiseGamgee

[Gurthang]

I'll be back on later toDay to post Part 4: Individual Voting and to post a summary of who I think this information implicates. I don't know that my decision will be based wholly on these Parts, but I don't know that I have a lot else to go off of.

I'm almost thinking of doing a Part 5: Votes Received, but I don't know that that would tell us anything. I'll just have to see when I have time.

[Lalaith]

Thanks for all this, Gurthang.
Just one thing - you've emboldened poor Glirdan as an enemy, and he was an innocent.

[Cailín]

Interesting Gurthang...

Especially since Caranlondien pops up on your suspicion lists so often, while I -primarily based on instincts or because I was impressed with her contributions as a newbie to the game- have never considered her as wolfish before. Maybe I should review that feeling.

I am very much inclined to trust you, Gurthang, so I value your thoughts. Would you say that a Wolf-Valier or Naria would have tallied the scores, knowing full well two of their allies would die?

[tar-ancalime]

Interesting, Gurthang. It's funny how Day 1 always seems to grow in importance, the longer the game goes on.

How about "mentioned by Farael?" Would that be worth looking at? Granted, his agenda was a little different than, say, Kath's, but still he knew the score. He proved to us on Day 3 that he wasn't shy about using his knowledge.

I don't know why everyone is so quick to discount Celuien as a possible Seer in the eyes of the wolves. Any Seer who's lasted this long is laying very low indeed (and bravo to you, good madam or sir!). It could be that the wolves have stopped looking for obvious Seer clues and are getting a little paranoid--starting to knock off those who have been playing smart but a little quiet. They started with the loudmouths and caught a break with spawn; could they have moved on to a different strategy after failing with Anguirel and Eomer (seeing as how they're running out of loudmouths)?

[Lalaith]

don't know why everyone is so quick to discount Celuien as a possible Seer in the eyes of the wolves

Not everyone, at all.
My entire analysis of Celuien's posts was based on the wolves thinking she was a Seer. Cailin at least appeared to concur with this thesis.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

I don't know why everyone is so quick to discount Celuien as a possible Seer in the eyes of the wolves. Any Seer who's lasted this long is laying very low indeed (and bravo to you, good madam or sir!). It could be that the wolves have stopped looking for obvious Seer clues and are getting a little paranoid--starting to knock off those who have been playing smart but a little quiet. They started with the loudmouths and caught a break with spawn; could they have moved on to a different strategy after failing with Anguirel and Eomer (seeing as how they're running out of loudmouths)?

Quite the contrary, tar, I am convinced the wolves thought Celuien to be a Seer. Otherwise they would have murdered a more generally trusted villager. Such as yourself, Gurthang or Littlemanpoet (perhaps even me) - people who have been contributing regularly and have never been seriously under suspicion yet. We cannot all be wolves.

I just fail to see why they believed her to be the second Seer... perhaps they are getting desperate indeed. Which would be good news.

[tar-ancalime]

Sorry, Lalaith. By "everyone" I guess I meant...um...Thinlomien.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Cailin, to whom I also apologize.

[Gurthang]

Quick answers, I have to leave soon.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Thanks for all this, Gurthang.
Just one thing - you've emboldened poor Glirdan as an enemy, and he was an innocent.

Oops. I'll edit that.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Would you say that a Wolf-Valier or Naria would have tallied the scores, knowing full well two of their allies would die?

It's possible, but I would doubt it. I think that we wouldn't have looked twice if they had voted for Lhuna, simply saying they didn't like the double lynch. It would have been very easy for them to do that and stay out of trouble. So, yes they could still be wolves, but from that part of the analysis, they look innocent. I guess that's key, I used the words 'look' and 'feel' rather than just saying 'definitely are', since none of this is ever for certain. Still, I think that coming up with enough places where someone is looking guilty can lead to a wolf.

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

How about "mentioned by Farael?" Would that be worth looking at? Granted, his agenda was a little different than, say, Kath's, but still he knew the score. He proved to us on Day 3 that he wasn't shy about using his knowledge.

I don't know. The only trouble is there's no way to cross-reference with anything, since none of the wolves would have known he was a lover either, they would not have avoided talking about him. Still, you can never tell, so if you want to, then go ahead. I don't see how it could hurt.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

Sorry, Lalaith. By "everyone" I guess I meant...um...Thinlomien.

Oh, I'm a majority by myself. I didn't say the wolves wouldn't have thought Celuien the seer (I just doubted it slightly), I said I didn't find her seer-looking. Maybe I should take the attitude that the wolves are probably more clever than me. Not an idea that cheers me up. (Though, it's not very difficult to be cleverer than me... )

Originally Posted by Cailín

Thinlómien… Before I continue, I'd like to explain why double-lynching is more beneficial in principle (though admittedly, there is a slight flaw that has to do with the Seer). If we had not lynched Glirdan or TGWBS yesterDay, we would probably have done so toDay as they were the most suspicious characters. This would give the wolves two nightly kills instead of one. If we as villagers can double-lynch, we hold the power. The only downside is that the Seer only has one dream per three people dying. That makes me unsure whether we should double-lynch toDay. Actually, I think not.

The first time I understood this. I don't know if you explained it better than the few persons who have already explained it, or if I'm more awake today. Thanks, Cailín.

Gurth, I liked your analysis. Someone noticed that Cara pops up in the "looks bad" quite often, I'd say the same about Samwise.

I think I have a big problem. I've no idea who might be a wolf. At the moment, I have no real suspects and I'm ready to trust nearly anyone. And that's bad. If I had to guess who the remaining wolves were, I'd say Samwise and Naria, but that's just an unreasoned guess.

I'm going to analyse Samwise now. He disturbs me.

[Valier]

Wow the wolves kill really surprised me! I was sure they would have killed Gurthang or another seeming innocent. I do think they probably thought Celuien to be the seer. Well I actually was suspisious of her and probably would have been voting for her in the next couple of days. I am now back to square one with my suspects. hhhmmmm Caran's name does come up alot in Gurthangs post/analysis which is weird. I also think Samwise and perhaps Form need some looking into today. They have not been under fire yet and it may help us to look at their posts. I think the seer should only come out if they have dreamed of a wolf or if they are going to be lynched. I believe I have an idea who is the seer, but I will keep that to myself, incase I am wrong. I will read through the posts now, but I may not have time for analysis till I get home(I'm at school now).

[littlemanpoet]

A few questions and answers to help us:

1. Who has voted for Kath & Farael, and not Lhuna?

tar-ancalime - 2x (Farael once, kath once)
Valier - 1x (& late, helping secure the tie)
Naria - 1x (& late, helping secure the tie)
Formendacil 2x (both times Kath)

2. Who has voted for Lhuna instead of Kath or innocents?

Caranlondien - 2x
Samwise - 2x
LMP -2x
Thinlomien - 1x
Lalatih - 1x
Gurthang - 1x

3. Who have the killed innocents suspected & voted for?

Celuien suspected & voted for Samwise. - Day 2

Eomer voted for LMP based on a random selection. - Day 1

Glirdan voted for Naria - Day 2

Guy voted for Naria - Day 4

4. Who has contributed the least to the discussions?

In order (rough estimate) of least help:

Naria
Valier
Formendacil
Samwise

***************

Question #4's answers are offset by the answers to questions #1-3.

The upshot of this little investigation is that:

a. Formendacil, Naria, and Valier are not our most likely choices for the werewolves.

b. Samwise, Caranlondien, and LMP should be considered to be the most suspicious.

c. Of the three listed in point (b), I know that I trust myself most, obviously. The other two need a thorough investigation.

One thing of note is Samwise's outburst regarding the Lovers information. How do we interpret that?

Caranlondien has exhibited the intellectual acuity that I've seen in tar-ancalime and Spawn. In other words, I think you ladies are smarter than I am. I admit it. Therefore, I'll put nothing past Caranlondien.

Samwise I can see playing this cunning a game with Caran's help. I'd say he's about as smart as I am (which ain't stupid).

I think there's a weakness, if not a flaw, in Guy's double lynch logic, which is this: each Day we double lynch 2 innocents, the more likely a werewolf win becomes. Pretty obvious, but I still think it needs to be said. I'm not sure we can afford to be wrong yet another Day.

[Caranlondien]

Wow, my first game and already I'm potentially "cunning"

All I can say is, I'm not a wolf, but I understand if I have to be lynched in order to prove that. Thus I'll spend toDay doing analysis, which will hopefully help if/when I'm dead later on.

I see someone's already working on Samwise, whom I'm starting to suspect a bit more. I think I'll do my own analysis of him in a bit, but I'll start with someone else, since we already have one analysis on the way. Working from LMP's own list... LMP, then.

[Cailín]

Hmm, Caranlondien is currently "as faithful as Samwise"

It's a sign! They are both wolves!

[Thinlómien]

Day 1
#22 Usual day 1 nonsense (mourning and greeting etc.), claims to have suspects and says will tell them later (after lunch)
#25 Suspects Cailín for her early vote. Points out that she makes a lot of accusations, but doubts that a wolf'd be so stupid. Asks for other people's opinions on the matter.
#48 Answers to spawn's accusations (she had said his accusations on Cailín seemed a bit baseless) by saying that in her posts on Day 1 she had randomly accused one third of the village. Says she belongs to her "ooh, that's odd"-list rather than "horrible wolves"-list. Agrees with Gurth that TGWBS and his self-vote are odd and says we should be careful about TGWBS. Advises villagers to be careful and think about their votes, since there's more than any other day a danger of lynching two innocent people by tomfoolery.
#71 Chats with Eomer. Says that his thoughts concerning Cailín were mere suspicions, not accusations. Says he thinks Ang thinks the greater good of the village.
#74 Agrees with Farael about Ang playing a strange game and hinting things. Jokes about his hair growth.
#76 Says he will go away.
#122 Makes a voting list, clears his statement about Garin (Garin is being Garin). Says he'd like to vote Glirdy (unreasoned, bandwagony vote), but may not do so because it would take the village to a double lynch.
#125 Votes Garin, because he doesn't want a double lynch and says Garin should die rather than TGWBS.
Conclusion: He's a bit flip-floppy, but not remarkably. He doesn't really raise points in discussions. Not particularly suspicious of him based on this, could be wolf, could be innocent. I don't get his point in #48. Maybe you'd like to explain, Samwise?

Day 2
#145 Is interested in what went between Eomer and LMP on Day 1. Agrees with tar-a that Ang made some curious points about him (he had something serious to say about Samwise, tar-a said). Says we shouldn't look at those who Ang accused directly. Believes me (Thinlómien) and Kath innocent, but gives no reasons why.
#146 Says that pairish action should be only monitored, so that longer observation time will give less hasty accusations and it will prevent layers of falsehood from forming.
#149 Accuses Lhuna because of her not breaking the tie though she said she wouldn't like to have a double lynch. (This is the first time Lhuna not breaking the tie is mentioned.)
#227 Still suspects Lhuna. Agrees that the wolves are probably after the seers. Is angry with LMP about mentioning the wolf-lover might tell his/her lover the names of the wolves (says LMP gave advise to the lovers). Says Eonwe's vote was crazy. Says Eomer is probably innocent and a clevr guy, who he will maybe never be able to trust.
#231 Agrees with LMP that the lovers probably had thought about the ordolover knowing the wolves. Asks TGWBS to explain his vote and says that voting without reasons makes the game easier for the wolves.
#233 Says that an ordolover knowing all the wolves could pose as a seer.
#239 Corrects Glirdy.
#240 Defends himself for correcting Glirdy though no one had accused him.
#242 Reminds that Night will start earlier than usual.
#255 Votes Lhuna. (See reasons above.)
Conclusions: Raising up the Lhuna-issue and sticking to it speaks strongly for his innocense. It doesn't point to his wolvishness unless he wanted to be cleared from all suspicions at this phase if Lhuna died later (not probable in my opinion) or if the wolves had decided to sacrifice Lhuna. He's a bit flighty; he defends himself though no one accuses him. That's a bit wolvish, but overall his day 2 behaviour is one of an innocent's.

Day 3
#323 Says spawn's seership is a surprise to him, but believes it was so for the wolves also. Agrees with tar-a that she was killed probably to balance the sexes. Says he's not ready to support TGWBS's plan yet. Doesn't suspect Kath and continues suspecting Lhuna.
#325 Agrees in principle with Lalaith that no one should be voted before she/he has had a chance to defend him/herself.
#328 Doesn't understand Cailín (she said 1/3 was guilty then - later that was proved wrong). Says Kath and Lhuna might be innocent after all.
#331 Says we should double-lynch Kath and Lhuna.
#391 Says he'll probably vote Lhuna unless she comes and exonerates herself or someone else becomes more suspicious.
#397 Jokes with Eomer.
#400 Aswers to Farael about spawn dreaming of Lhuna. Says Lhuna is suspicious because spawn was a seer. Expresses his frustration about bickering.
#403 Votes Lhuna and makes a voting record.
#409 Urges to make a double lynch.
Conclusion: This made me really think that the wolves wanted to sacrifice Lhuna. Though Samwise's eagerness to have a double lynch speaks for his innocence again. But, the interesting thing is that though he says he supports the double-lynch he votes for Lhuna (fouth vote for her) though Kath has only one vote. A masquerading wolf might be doing so. Samwise, I'd like you to explain that.

Day 4
#539 Mourns Eomer. Suspects Glirdan and says we should have a double lynch (but not lynch TGWBS, suggests Naria instead because she's stalking).
#545 Supports double-lynchings. Says he trusts TGWBS because Eomer trusted him. Votes Glirdan.
#547 Admits he hasn't real reasons to support TGWBS.
#548 Jokes with Celuien.
#554 Says the wolves would probably ideally want to keep the lovers alive, but might turn against them.
#555 Asks Valier to clear her point and says he's not suspecting her though.
#557 Says it's good if Cara stays around to ensure the double-lynch.
#563 Asks people to keep on voting.
Conclusions: He is avid to explain his votes and defend himself (a bit too flighty I think). Why did he for example mention he doesn't suspect Valier when he only asked her to clear a point. Jumpy guy, he is. (I admit I'm not the best person to complain about flip-floppiness, so I'll skip that part.)

Day 5
Nothing so far.

Final conclusions: He's still on my suspect list . I might even vote him if I don't find a better case.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Hello, villagers. Well, you can forget favourable interest rates next time you come to me for a loan! Oh, and nobody should join in that joke, because it seems that if you have a laugh with me you end up DEAD!

So, I'm having a lot of suspicion pointed my way and to be honest I think that's fair enough. I've gone this far without a close examination and I'm perfectly comfortable with getting one, because I'm innocent and have confidence that the truth will out. Well, a reasonable amount of confidence.

I really can't see Why the wolves got rid of Celuien last night other than they suspected her as seer. It just makes no sense at the moment for the wolves to be leaving a seer alive. There is, of course, value in going back over what she said, but there's not a huge amount to find, I feel.

Some general points for our consideration: there are only four of us guys left and now a female goes. Do we read into that. Also, we can now pretty safely say that Glirdan was framed yesterday, right? So maybe we need to consider the possibility that the most obvious choice for a wolf today could in fact be innocent.

On double lynchings: they ARE in our interest as villagers. Cailin has said so, Eomer and TGWBS (two known innocents) have said so, and as our royal musician said, I'm somewhat suspicious of anyone who doesn't support them. It was my understanding that when we committed to a double lynch on day two we were committing to a course of action to ruthlessly weed out the werewolves. Now that I find people backing out I grow somewhat uncomfortable.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Hmm, Caranlondien is currently "as faithful as Samwise"

It's a sign! They are both wolves!

You're starting random suspicions again, are you?

Nice to see you around Samwise since I'm having a few questions for you. See my analysis on you.

[Naria]

Hi everyone! First off, allow me to apologize for my absence from last Day. I don't blame the ones that have suspicion growing against me. I would too, if I were in their shoes. I know that it is of no use to keep someone around that does nothing to help the village in their quest to find the wolves.

For what it is worth--I said that I didn't know who to vote for(Lhuna or Kath) because they were both very suspicious to me. As I stated, Lhuna wasn't being Lhuna, normally she is informative and helpful and this time she wasn't. I thought Kath to be a wolf because, yes she isn't overly chatty, but a) she was contributing more than 'normal' and b) her one post(can't remember which one) on the day of her death came across and sounded like something I did when I was a wolf. Very apprehensive and safe in her posting. I can't really explain it any better than that, those were just my feelings about the two of them.

I voted for Kath in the end because of a) solidifying a tie and b) because I was duped into thinking that Farael was the Seer and I really thought he was.

Cailin, care to explain?

Hmm, Caranlondien is currently "as faithful as Samwise"

It's a sign! They are both wolves

[SamwiseGamgee]

In response to Lommy: I don't get what you don't get about #48. If you clarify I'll gladly clarify.

As for the Lhuna issue. I don't know what to say. I was pretty suspicious of her on day one after I urged us not to double lynch on the first day and then she refused to break the tie. That would've probably slid, though, had she not turned up on day two and started saying how concerning she found the near double lynch. My thinking was: 'if you found it so concerning why didn't you break it. That's what I, an innocent, did, so why didn't you?' I voiced my concern and received support for it, and on my original suspicions voted for her. When Spawn was killed and was revealled to be the seer I thought that her support of my Lhuna suspicions was perhaps fortuitous (sp?) and so ran with it. When I voted Lhuna on day three it did put her well in front, but I just didn't think it made sense for me, original doubter of Lhuna, to suddenly swap to Kath. I thought that'd be somewhat flip-floppish...which is ironic. So that's why I voted Lhuna. Now I agree that the wolves were probably willing to sacrifice one of their number, that's true, but would a fellow wolf really raise the original suspicion of one of their foul kin? And after I'd voted Lhuna on day three I realised it put her well in front and posted to urge others to vote Kath. I have acted only as I saw fit and only ever with this village's best interests at heart. If you choose to kill me there's not much I can really do, but please trust me when I say you're making a grave error.

[Lalaith]

I really can't see Why the wolves got rid of Celuien last night other than they suspected her as seer. It just makes no sense at the moment for the wolves to be leaving a seer alive. There is, of course, value in going back over what she said, but there's not a huge amount to find, I feel.

I disagree. I think Celuien MUST have said something to get her killed as the Seer and I think the more people who go over her posts the better. I did this morning and came up with a couple of pointers, if anyone else feels like giving an alternative analysis or comments, that would be helpful.
Another thing. KathWolf made a post analysing spawn. I can't remember - have we checked that post for omissions or dodgy emphasis? That could tell us something...

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Samwise

Hello, villagers. Well, you can forget favourable interest rates next time you come to me for a loan! Oh, and nobody should join in that joke, because it seems that if you have a laugh with me you end up DEAD!

I'll take that risk.

Originally Posted by Samewise

It was my understanding that when we committed to a double lynch on day two we were committing to a course of action to ruthlessly weed out the werewolves. Now that I find people backing out I grow somewhat uncomfortable.

In a larger village, certainly it was in our best interest... and though I am hesitant to bring this up again: we still have a Seer. With double-lynchings each day, his or her dreams will become less effective. It will get easier, fast, for the wolves to find him or her and there's even a possibility s/he will be up for lynching. With the terrific job this Seer is doing, we should be equally careful.

Now I agree that the wolves were probably willing to sacrifice one of their number, that's true, but would a fellow wolf really raise the original suspicion of one of their foul kin?

In the Lover's scenario... yes, in principle, they could.

Nice analysis, Thinlómien, though it does not really sway me either way... And Naria, my random accusation was just a joke based on Caranlondien's current reputation level.