Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Hmmm....again with the good points Eomer.
In fact Nerwen didn't vote at all on Day 1. I did wonder why....

Because she's Nerwen?

(Seriously, she very rarely votes on Day 1. It's a thing.)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

There's something that doesn't quite fit in my theory, though, which is rather annoying.

If indeed Rikae was the Seer, and, upon the Seer's death the last two dreams were sent to Unknown-Power-Nerwen, then wolf-Mac doesn't suit. Rikae specifically lumped Mac in with Agan and Morm as innocent during Day 2 - she certainly didn't dream about Loslote and Mac on the same night.

It might then be more likely that Legate was the Seer.

Or this could all just be way off, of course..

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Hmmm....again with the good points Eomer.
In fact Nerwen didn't vote at all on Day 1. I did wonder why....

The plot thickens! I hadn't thought of that.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Nerwen has already voted for Loslote. We could test the theory by lynching someone else today? Or is that stupid?

[Firefoot]

I was already inclined to vote for Lottie (in the absence of a lover scheme anyway) and this sort of seals the deal. I was already inclined to trust Nerwen, and the two people she named topped my suspect list anyway.

Don't have time for more now, sorry! And I will be voting earlier toDay, have plans for later.

[Firefoot]

Also does anyone have any thoughts on the voting schema for guiding the Dead vote that I posted? Especially if it ends up being a landslide vote today, the Dead aren't going to be influencing it anyway, so it would be good to get some information from their vote if possible. Seems like we should figure it out sort of soon, too, before they start voting en masse.

[Lalaith]

I was already inclined to vote for Lottie (in the absence of a lover scheme anyway) and this sort of seals the deal.

(Firefoot)
Well yes, my feelings too...but I did want to try to hold off until Lottie herself turned up to explain herself.

We could test the theory by lynching someone else today? Or is that stupid?

(Eomer)
How could we test it when we don't know the roles after death? Or am I now missing something and being stupid?

Seriously, she very rarely votes on Day 1. It's a thing.

(Sally)
I didn't know that. But if Nerwen's vote is some kind of kiss of death, then that might explain a lot.

[Boromir88]

I'm on my lunch and still planning to be back an hour or so before the DL, but if not:

++Lottie

I'm going to trust Nerwen's revealed info. I can't think of a reason a wolf would want to make this info up at this time.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay, I have to go and it's possible I won't be able to get back online later, so I guess I can't sit on this any longer. I said I had a particular reason for wanting to hear everyone's opinion's of everyone else, and here it is:

I received a pm telling me that the Seer had dreamed two wolves, Macalaure and Lottie.

It was *not* explained to me why I was being sent this interesting communication, nor can I find anything about it in the rules. Maybe this is a once-off thing (on the Seer's death?), or maybe a different person has been sent dreams each Night. Maybe the Dead are involved, or the mystery role. I honestly have no idea.

I realise I have no way of backing any of this up, and am asking you all to take my word for it, but I do think there's decent circumstantial evidence against both Lottie and Mac.

Well, that's just not fair.

Anyway, in the interest of killing the other pack - who I hate with every bone in my furry little body - here's who I wanted to kill toMorrow Night, and why:

Originally Posted by Firefoot

It seems likely to me that Rikae and phantom were killed by one pack and Rune and Legate by the other, in that the pairs can be categorized similarly - Rikae and phantom both being quite vocal and widely unsuspected, while Rune and Legate both seem to play a hazier role (Legate was generally not considered suspicious, I believe?). Might be worth taking a look at who Legate and Rikae suspected yesterDay - I would be pretty nervous at this point if I was a wolf and the seer was still running around, so that's who I would think they were going for.

Rikae's strongest suspicion seemed to be Lottie. She voted for Greenie. Day 1 she voted for Lommy and discussed continuing suspicion of her early in Day 2, but by the end of Day 2 Lommy no longer seemed under consideration for votes. She seemed to find Nog, Form, Agan, Mac, and I (late in the Day, changing her mind) probably innocent.

Firefoot is way, way too spot on here. Of course she knows who the other pack killed at Night - she was there. My pack killed Rune and Legate (I would like to take the credit for figuring out that Legate was likely the Seer, thank you, I was pretty pleased with that. Can't believe he got the info out anyway) and Mac's and, presumably, Firefoot's pack killed tp and Rikae. (I didn't know which of Rikae and Mac they had killed until Firefoot confirmed for me that Mac was one of her pack, by the way. Thanks for that.)

Also, notice how Firefoot plays down how much Rikae and Legate both suspected her? I remember last Night thinking that Legate would probably dream either her or me last Night, and Rikae definitely suspected her, so she wasn't nearly as well trusted as she is trying to pretend here, and she is just as implicated in the case that a wolf pack Night killed one of them as I was, even though she tried to pretend otherwise.

My pack, kill her. Village, kill her. She is a wolf, and a rival of mine, and I will not have competition for my own dearly beloved packmates. <3

[Lalaith]

++Loslote

What on earth was she saying about Mac in that rant? Can anyone else figure it out?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Nerwen has already voted for Loslote. We could test the theory by lynching someone else today? Or is that stupid?

I'm not sure it's the best time to do that. It would give us some information but only to the nature of her power, which we suspect anyway. I still wonder if the power rotates people, ordos presumably, or if it changes what the power is each day. However with the Nerwen, no vote day 1 and Mac's death it's likely that she has a super vote or something like that.

As far as Lottie's implication of Firefoot, it's interesting and shouldn't be wholly discounted, despite my feelings that Firefoot has been mostly innocent looking. I suspect there is a fair amount of truth in what she said. We need to decipher what that truth is. I do think Lottie is genuinely upset at the other pack and would be happy to throw them under if possibly, hence my thought that Firefoot may be worth watching now.

[Lalaith]

Can't believe he got the info out anyway) and Mac's and, presumably, Firefoot's pack killed tp and Rikae.

Ok, there is now a possessive apostrophe after Mac which wasn't there before and the sentence/meaning is now clear. Previously I thought Loslote was somehow claiming two kills for her pack last night.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Ok, there is now a possessive apostrophe after Mac which wasn't there before and the sentence/meaning is now clear. Previously I thought Loslote was somehow claiming two kills for her pack last night.

Yeah, Mac was in a different pack. Firefoot's pack, if we believe the wolf.

[Firefoot]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Firefoot is way, way too spot on here. Of course she knows who the other pack killed at Night - she was there. My pack killed Rune and Legate (I would like to take the credit for figuring out that Legate was likely the Seer, thank you, I was pretty pleased with that. Can't believe he got the info out anyway) and Mac's and, presumably, Firefoot's pack killed tp and Rikae. (I didn't know which of Rikae and Mac they had killed until Firefoot confirmed for me that Mac was one of her pack, by the way. Thanks for that.)

Also, notice how Firefoot plays down how much Rikae and Legate both suspected her? I remember last Night thinking that Legate would probably dream either her or me last Night, and Rikae definitely suspected her, so she wasn't nearly as well trusted as she is trying to pretend here, and she is just as implicated in the case that a wolf pack Night killed one of them as I was, even though she tried to pretend otherwise.

My pack, kill her. Village, kill her. She is a wolf, and a rival of mine, and I will not have competition for my own dearly beloved packmates. <3

You may, of course, take the word of a wolf.

For the record, here were the last things Rikae and Legate said about me:

Rikae, #380: [After a post by post analysis]: Conclusions: very safe, very under-the-radar, but otherwise seems innocent enough.

Legate, #329: Personally I do not know what to make of Firefoot, it isn't particularly striking impression, but the bit of wishy-washiness is there. [And later]: I just mentioned Lottie above (and Firefoot too, in fact), I am not sure if I would really go so far to vote for them.

#340: Could just as well be in the yellow zone though, it is more a matter of distinction, I think it would be nice to reread the posts etc to get better opinion, but that's about it.

I'd also like to point out that I have been pretty consistent in my suspicion of Mac, and voted for him yesterday bringing him to three votes when Agan had only four.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

You may, of course, take the word of a wolf.

For the record, here were the last things Rikae and Legate said about me:

The last things, but not the only things. You were on Rikae's radar:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Just popping in to say I'm not particularly happy with the options at the moment. I don't have much time but how do others feel about Firefoot, and about Lottie? These loud, controversial people - Agan, Mac - seem less and less wolfish to me, and I don't see much of a case against Morm.

In fact, you were one of two people she analyzed yesterDay. If I were you, and I thought she was the Seer, I would have been very concerned that she would dream of you the next Night, just to be sure.

Anyway, it doesn't matter too much whether or not you actually did worry that she was a Seer who had dreamt of you or not. You did try to distance yourself earlier toDay, and you did try to play down her suspicions of you, indicating that you knew going into the Day that you had to be careful not to link yourself to the Night kill.

I'd also like to point out that I have been pretty consistent in my suspicion of Mac, and voted for him yesterday bringing him to three votes when Agan had only four.

You might have crossed with Mac's vote for Agan, which brought her to five, but you did know he was around, and you had to know there was enough momentum against her and not enough against Mac, and that the lynch was basically already determined. I could easily see this as a safe but potentially effective bit of distancing yourselves.

None of this addresses the most important of my points: how did you know, without once suggesting something that was not correct, how the Night kills were distributed between the packs? You hit the nail on the head with your first swing, which would have been almost impossible if you only had access to the information the rest of the village does. You only could have know that that was how the kills fell out if you were, in fact, a member of one of the packs.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Does that confirm that the third-party role killed Mac? (Bit hard to follow on a phone, sorry.)

++Lottie

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Does that confirm that the third-party role killed Mac? (Bit hard to follow on a phone, sorry.)

Well, it wasn't my pack, and it sure wasn't his own pack, so I'm gonna go with yes.

[Loslote]

Oh, and Shasta -

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Lottie is one I'd like to look at today; there's something she's normally done in games by now that she hasn't yet and I'm curious as to the reason.

What do I usually do that I had not done yet? It's been bugging me all game.

[Formendacil]

Good grief--work an honest day and come back to see... I don't even have a word for it.

++Loslote

Clearly, I need to do some rereading and digesting. Even if I had a cogent reason to think Nerwen anything other than truthful--and the Secret Role, whatever we call it and whatever its powers, seems to fit here--about this communication, Lottie's admission seems to be complete. And last I checked, this game has no Cobbler.

Definitely going to need to sift her (probably misleading) posts for nuggets of truth.

[Mithalwen]

When I did my bored/go out on my own terms reveal in Sauce's two pack game, I told the truth pretty much as far as I knew or believed. I certainly told no lies...

[Mithalwen]

Oh and as a side note, can I say that I am finding Kath hugely suspicious. She is never been verbose but she has literally done the minimum to stop herself being modkilled by voting for Formendacil and has only posted twice. Given that there was nothing really more than nostalgia and Form had offered himself as a sacrifice I can't help wondering if she is the lowest flying wolf ever. Obviously not the target for tonight but..

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

When I did my bored/go out on my own terms reveal in Sauce's two pack game, I told the truth pretty much as far as I knew or believed. I certainly told no lies...

Yes, but what is she selectively omitting?

Obviously, the big question is who her fellows are. I don't suppose you'll tell us, Lottie, if you ask nicely?

EDIT: If *we* ask nicely.

[Firefoot]

Originally Posted by Loslote

how did you know, without once suggesting something that was not correct, how the Night kills were distributed between the packs? You hit the nail on the head with your first swing, which would have been almost impossible if you only had access to the information the rest of the village does. You only could have know that that was how the kills fell out if you were, in fact, a member of one of the packs.

Good guess? Just seemed like the most obvious pairing...

A further point - since Lottie has been so kind as to take credit for Legate's kill, our possible seer, I'm going to guess that Greenie and Lottie are in the same pack - otherwise Legate's suspicion of Greenie wouldn't really point to him being a seer.

So our current list of the living is:

Lottie - wolf by her own admission, maybe with Greenie

Innocent, if we believe Legate was the seer:
Nerwen
Lommy
Mith

And the rest of us - up to three wolves in this group:
Form
Sally
McCaber
Boro
Firefoot
Lal
Eomer
morm
Nilp
Shasta
Kath

If we can ferret out Lottie and Greenie's packmate, we'd be down to one kill a night (by the wolves anyway...).

[satansaloser2005]

I'm wondering where Kath is, honestly. I think she'd make some sort of effort to be here, even if it's just long enough to say she's busy. Total silence is worrisome.

[Firefoot]

But wait a minute... Legate was only killed last night, so the Dead Thread wouldn't have access to his information (if he was the seer) until toDay. Looking again at Nerwen's reveal post, she said:

It was *not* explained to me why I was being sent this interesting communication, nor can I find anything about it in the rules. Maybe this is a once-off thing (on the Seer's death?), or maybe a different person has been sent dreams each Night. Maybe the Dead are involved, or the mystery role. I honestly have no idea.

So if we're sticking with the idea that Legate was the seer, I think it must have something to do with his death, maybe with some obscure relation to the mystery role, but nothing to do with the Dead Thread.

The other option is that Legate was not the seer, his guess about Greenie was just lucky since it set Lottie off, and that the seer is dead, and somehow this message is coming from the Dead Thread (again, maybe with some relation to the mystery role).

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Definitely going to need to sift her (probably misleading) posts for nuggets of truth.

I urge skepticism, certainly, but even if there are omissions I think it's worth looking into. We can't turn our backs on something that could be so vital. It's odd that you summarily dismiss the idea, not seemingly in protection of Firefoot but of not trusting a wolf. I'm uncertain of Firefoot as a wolf but if she is I wonder if you are her mate. Also, it would seem that Lottie's motivation is that of not letting the other pack win, it seems a matter of pride really. It would fit, then, that she would give the info that she knew at the time.

Anyway,

++Loslote

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

The other option is that Legate was not the seer, his guess about Greenie was just lucky since it set Lottie off, and that the seer is dead, and somehow this message is coming from the Dead Thread (again, maybe with some relation to the mystery role).

Or Legate could have just gotten lucky, and Nerwen is the Seer who made up a pm from Kuru so that her reveal would be a little less risky. Keep that possibility in mind, wolves!

[Firefoot]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Or Legate could have just gotten lucky, and Nerwen is the Seer who made up a pm from Kuru so that her reveal would be a little less risky. Keep that possibility in mind, wolves!

That would be one of the cleverest lies I've ever heard of.

[Firefoot]

I guess there's no point in delaying it any longer:

++Lottie

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

That would be one of the cleverest lies I've ever heard of.

Right? She could pretend to act as a conduit for any helpful dreams she might have had, and make us believe that the real Seer is still hidden somewhere else - maybe even in the Dead thread - so that the wolves are too busy chasing something that doesn't exist to bother killing her. One of the packs should probably kill her toNight, just to be safe.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I urge skepticism, certainly, but even if there are omissions I think it's worth looking into. We can't turn our backs on something that could be so vital. It's odd that you summarily dismiss the idea, not seemingly in protection of Firefoot but of not trusting a wolf. I'm uncertain of Firefoot as a wolf but if she is I wonder if you are her mate. Also, it would seem that Lottie's motivation is that of not letting the other pack win, it seems a matter of pride really. It would fit, then, that she would give the info that she knew at the time.

I'm unclear: who is "you" here? Assuming you mean me (Formendacil), I did not intend to "summarily dismiss" the idea of sifting through Lottie's posts, merely offering the caution that the sifting would, in fact, be sifting--Lottie's riverbed is not gravelled solely with gold nuggets.

I agree that Lottie may well be motivated to share her knowledge with the village out of professional pride or tribal rivalry, but if we assume she still has packmates living, her chief concern is probably as much to deflect attention from them as it is to help us find the other pack.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Koala

• Nerwen - I noticed how she suddenly took the fore toDAY. I thought at first that she saw Boro's post regarding post count and thought to herself, 'Challenge accepted.' With her revelation that sudden shift now makes more sense. Am inclined to trust her information, at least.
• Sally - Hmm...

Shark-infested waters

• Formendacil - Shifted down a notch due to presence of 'confirmed' innocents. Done nothing to make me doubt him, though.
• Boromir88 - Ditto.
• Thinlómien - Her posts toDAY are substantive and has innocent villager-like vibes--the thinking out loud, the confusion, the frustration at the confusion, etc.
• Mithalwen - Is worryingly detached, but nothing suspicious. (Also, is my mother.)
• Lalaith - Feels innocent, but not strongly so. Focused on the narration detail as well as the Nog/Agan duelling waggons (the clearest clue available or laser focusing on one topic to avoid committing to other opinions? But she did provide a sort of list.)
• mormegil - Is helping me fulfil my suspicion quota. Also, he makes his opinion known, which is something I'd trust in this village--Wolves would be try to be less open, I think.

Swarm of Killer Beers [sic]

• Firefoot - Her death analysis as sharp (way too sharp even, according to Lottie), but in the absence of concrete role/alignment knowledge of the Dead, an analysis of why someone would be killed as a possible Seer seems a useful tool.
• Shastanis Althreduin - Werewolf Psychic strikes again? His narrow laser-like focus on certain topics is worrying, but is comprehensive in them.
• McCaber - Too focused on the Agan/Lommy war; provided a halfhearted Rune death analysis (although I do understand the halfheartedness. This game is driving me insane.)
• Eomer of the Rohirrim - Makes logical arguments against the Agan/Lommy war being suspicious. Is part of the Nogawagon (TM A Little Green). Makes a comment about how laser-like focus on a topic is used to camouflage Wolvish behaviour, but is laser-like in his posts as well (the war and Legate's case against Greenie). Hm?

Komodo Dragon

• Kath - ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Godzilla

• Loslote - From her 'revealing' comment, I'm inclined to think that her Pack is in dire straits--probably down to one member after her death?
• Nilpaurion Felagund - When can we lynch him?
• Kuruharan

---

Now we need information from the Dead more than ever. If the Seer is indeed there, and they have indeed dreamt of the two people Nerwen mentioned, then that's an additional known innocent--in fact, she would be even more confirmed than Sally at this point (unless this dream transfer can happen to Wolves, and Nerwen used it to get a member of the other Pack killed...? Unlikely.)

Also, the effect this has on the other Pack's psyche--now they know that a member of the other Pack has been killed, and they (probably) now have numbers. Would they revert to more traditional Werewolvery posting and NIGHT killing?

Also, DEAD PEOPLE, please use Firefoot's list to tell us what you know. kkthxbai

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

++Loslote

And I hope her Packmate/s go for Sally toNIGHT.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Also, DEAD PEOPLE, please use Firefoot's list to tell us what you know. kkthxbai

I will second asking for this. It's the best list that's been discussed toDay and because we're basically unanimous here you guys won't harm anything by throwing our totals off.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

++loslote

[Thinlómien]

Celebration? Confusion?? First and foremost celebration!

++Lottie

I'm on my phone now and not sure how much I'll be around later if at all but:

1. Please guys talk to the dead thread, rather now than later. (DL is soon.)
2. We should look at what Lottie said, and properly. If her pack indeed killed Legate and Rune that's a lot of new info for us. Likewise, it would be interesting to see who would benefit from a bluff like that.
3. I find Firefoot's reaction to Lottie's accusations curious to put it mildly. I think an innocent would have just laughed it off!

[Kath]

My apologies for the radio silence. It has been ... a week.

Clearly, Lottie is going to be lynched toDay. This mysterious PM cannot be proven in any way, but if it is some kind of ruse then I take my hat off to Nerwen. It is one hell of a curve ball if so!

I have skimmed, not fully read. Along the way I grew suspicious of Firefoot and Aganzir. On Day 1, Firefoot decided to vote for Gwath because those who do not turn up should be lynched. Now this is a more than fair reason for a vote, but given all the discussion about vote tying and the fairly large pool of potential lynchees already in place, it felt throwaway.

Aganzir, at some point, then said she felt fairly secure about Firefoot's innocence. Actually, I think a wolf-Agan maybe wouldn't say this in a normal ww game if she was a ww, but with two packs it could be that Agan is suspicious of Firefoot as being a rival wolf and this would have thrown suspicion her way were Agan to be lynched and her posts looked at in detail.

I haven't quite figured out where the focus on Firefoot toDay has come in. On phone so will post this and read more closely.

[Kath]

Also Lommy what do you mean by 'talk to the dead thread'?

[Kath]

Just to make sure it is there:

++Lottie

[Firefoot]

Kath - Agan is dead and we're pretty sure she was the hunter.

Took a brief look at Green and Lottie's posts to try and find out any hints towards a third partner (still riding this theory on those two being in cahoots) and I think if there's anything it's going to be on p 7 when both of them were going into this morm/Sally thing... but both of them seemed to interact with mostly now-dead people the first day, and refrained from mentioning many suspicions.

Did not look yet at how other people have talked to/about them.

And now I'm out for the Day.